vector generalized linear and additive models: with an
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Thomas W. Yee
∗Figures from “VectorGeneralized Linear andAdditive Models: With anImplementation in R”
February 29, 2016
Springer
∗ c© T. W. Yee 2015
![Page 2: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
![Page 3: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Preface
This document gives the figures from Yee (2015), along with their captions. Thereare slight differences between these figures and in the book, due to edits bySpringer. I retain the copyright for all these figures. They can be used for pri-vate study and teaching, but cannot be used in publications without my writtenconsent.
Thomas YeeAuckland, New Zealand
November 2015
Some, imagining they can best commend themselves to the Eternal by meansof statues, are eagerly desirous of them, as if they were certain to obtain morereward from brazen figures unendowed with sense, than from the conscious-ness of duties honourably and uprightly performed.—Ammianus Marcellinus
v
![Page 4: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
![Page 5: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Contents
1 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
2 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
3 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
4 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
5 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
6 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
7 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
8 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
9 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71
vii
![Page 6: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Contents c© T. W. Yee 2015
10 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
11 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
12 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
13 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
14 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
15 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
16 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
17 Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
A Figures from Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models:With an Implementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
viii
![Page 7: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Chapter 1
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
1
![Page 8: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 01
ν
µ
A B
(a)
ν
µ
A B
(b)
Fig. 1.1 Rank-1 constrained quadratic ordination (CQO). (a) The mean abundance is µs(ν) =E(Ys|ν) for s = 1, . . . , S species, and ν = cTx2 is a latent variable. (b) Zooming in on the
subinterval [A,B] in (a). This is approximately linearly on the η scale, meaning a RR-VGLM
would be suitable.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 9: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 01
LM
RR−VGLM
RR−VLM
VLM
VGLM VGAM
VAM
Generalized
Normal errors
Linear Smooth
RCIMQRR−VGLM (CQO) / UQO
RR−VGAM (CAO)
Fig. 1.2 Flowchart for different classes of models. Legend: LM = linear model, V = vector,G = generalized, A = additive, O = ordination, Q = quadratic, U = unconstrained, RCIM =
row–column interaction model. See also Table 1.1. Apart from the LM, the models of the bottom
half are more to be viewed as computational building blocks.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 10: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 01
−6 −5 −4 −3 −2 −1
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Log Lambda
Coe
ffici
ents
4 4 4 4 2 1
1
2
3
4
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
L1 Norm
Coe
ffici
ents
0 1 2 4
Fig. 1.3 Paths of the estimated LASSO coefficients in a LM fit. The response log(los) is
regressed against the variables admit (black), age75 (red), procedure (green) and sex (blue)
and intercept, in the data frame azpro from COUNT. The first plot has log λ as its x-axis,whereas second plot has the quantity
∑pk=2 |βk| in (1.43). The upper numbers are the number
of variables in the model. Package glmnet is used here.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 11: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 01
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
I(x − x0 < 0)
Step function
●
(a)
2 parameters
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
I((x − x0) * (x − x0 > 0))
Horizontal on LHS
●
(b)
2 parameters
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
I((x − x0) * (x − x0 <= 0))
Horizontal on RHS
●
(c)
2 parameters
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
I((x − x0)^2 * (x − x0 > 0))
Horizontal on LHS
●
(d)
2 parameters
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
I((x − x0)^2 * (x − x0 < 0))
Horizontal on RHS
●
(e)
2 parameters
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
I((x − x0) * sign(x − x0))
Slopes have opposite signs
(f)
2 parameters
●
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Continuous & piecewise−linear
●
(g)
3 parameters
I((x−x0) * (x > x0)) + I((x−x0) * (x <= x0))
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
bs(x, knot = x0, degree = 1)
Same fitted values as (g)
●
(h)
3 parameters
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
I(x − x0) * I(x − x0 > 0)
Two separate lines
●
(i)
4 parameters
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
I((x − x0)^2 * sign(x − x0))
cf. (f)
●
(j)
2 parameters
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0I((x2 − x0 > 0) * (x3 − x0 > 0))
x2
x 3
(k)
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0I(x2 − x0 > 0) * I(x3 − x0 > 0)
x2
x 3
(l)
Fig. 1.4 Some functional forms derived from the S formula language based on elementaryfunctions and operators. The formula heads each plot, followed by footnotes. The number of
parameters in the regression is given. An intercept term is assumed in all—and the blue •point indicates its value at the location x = x0. Plots (k)–(l) are contour images with variouscolours denoting different fitted values (blue for the intercept). The value x0 = x0 = 0.4 here,
and variables x, x2 and x3 are defined on the unit interval. Function bs() resides in the splinespackage.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 12: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
![Page 13: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Chapter 2
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
7
![Page 14: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
−4
−2
0
2
4(a)
p
g j(p
)
logitprobitcloglogcauchit
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7(b)
p
g j′(p
)
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
−15
−10
−5
0
5
10
15(c)
p
g j″(
p)
−4 −2 0 2 4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0(d)
gj(p)
p
Fig. 2.1 Properties of some common link functions gj suitable for a probability. (a) gj(p);
(b) g′j(p); (c) g′′j (p); (d) g−1j (p). The legend in (a) is common for all plots. The calls to (a)–(c)
are of the form link.function(p, deriv = d) for d = 0, 1 and 2 (Table 1.2).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 15: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0
20
40
60
80
p2
Test
sta
tistic
s
(a)
p10.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
p2
(b)
p1
Fig. 2.2 Wald (orange) and likelihood ratio test (blue) statistics plotted against p2, for:
(a) p1 = 0.5, (b) p1 = 0.25 (vertical dashed lines). Actually, the Wald statistic here is the
square of the usual Wald statistic, and p2 = 0.01(0.01)0.99 is discrete. The data follows Hauckand Donner (1977).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 16: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
Fig. 2.3 Completely separable data (bluecircles). Adding the two orange hollow points
results in quasi-completely separable data.
The logistic regression estimate of the slopewill tend to infinity in both cases.
● ● ● ● ●
● ● ● ● ●
−4 −2 0 2 4
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
x2
y
●
●
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 17: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
●●●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
10 20 30 40 50
−100
−50
0
50
Times
Acc
eler
atio
n
(a)
Degree 1Degree 2Degree 3Degree 4
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
0 5 10 15 20 25
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Speed (mph)
Sto
ppin
g di
stan
ce (
ft)
(b)Degree 1Degree 2Degree 3Degree 4
Fig. 2.4 Polynomials of degree 1–4 fitted to two data sets. (a) mcycles from MASS. (b) cars
from datasets.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 18: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0(a)
rain
bow
/tota
l.fis
h
Year
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0(b)
rain
bow
/tota
l.fis
h
Year
Fig. 2.5 (a) Proportion of fish caught that are rainbow trout from Lake Otamangakau (lakeO)
caught by an angler who frequented the spot. The variable Year is year-1900. (b) Smoothing
the same data with a cubic regression spline (truncated power basis) with one knot located atthe year 1980. A boundary effect on the RHS is evident.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 19: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
Fig. 2.6 Smoothing somedata with a regression spline
(B-spline). Each segment
of the spline is coloureddifferently. The term is effec-
tively bs(x, knots = c(1,
3.08, 6.03)). The truefunction is the sine function
(dashed) and n = 50.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
x
y
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 20: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
Fig. 2.7 Truncated power series
basis for cubic splines (2.39) Theblack dashed lines are 1, x, x2, x3.
The coloured solid lines are (x −ξk)3+ for knots ξ1 = 1, ξ2 = 2, ξ3 =
3, ξ4 = 4 and ξ5 = 5.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
x
(x−
ξ k) +3
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 21: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
0 2 4 6 8 10
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0 (a)
0 2 4 6 8 10
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0 (b)
0 2 4 6 8 10
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0 (c)
0 2 4 6 8 10
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0 (d)
Fig. 2.8 B-splines of order 1–4 ((a)–(d)), where the interior knots are denoted by vertical lines.
The boundary knots are at 0 and 11. The basis functions have been plotted from left to right.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 22: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
−2.0−1.5−1.0−0.5
0.00.51.01.5
Multiplicity 1
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
−2.0−1.5−1.0−0.5
0.00.51.01.5
Multiplicity 2
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
−2.0−1.5−1.0−0.5
0.00.51.01.5
Multiplicity 3
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
−2.0−1.5−1.0−0.5
0.00.51.01.5
Multiplicity 4
Fig. 2.9 Smoothing some data with cubic regression splines with knots of varying multiplicities.
The knots are at x = 2 and 4.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 23: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0
1
2
3
4
x
y
(a)
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0
1
2
3
4
x
y
(b)
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0
1
2
3
4
x
y
(c)
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0
1
2
3
4
x
y
(d)
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
Fig. 2.10 (a)–(d) Linear combinations of B-splines of degrees 0–3 fitted to some scatter plotdata; the formula is similar to (2.55) The knots are equally-spaced on the unit interval.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 24: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
1974 1978 1982 1986
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
(a); Derivative = 0
rain
bow
/tota
l.fis
h
1974 1978 1982 1986
−0.020
−0.015
−0.010
(b); Derivative = 1
1974 1978 1982 1986
−0.002−0.001
0.0000.0010.0020.0030.004
(c); Derivative = 2
1974 1978 1982 1986
−0.002
−0.001
0.000
0.001
0.002
0.003(d); Derivative = 3
Fig. 2.11 (a) Cubic smoothing spline fitted to the proportion of fish caught that are rainbow
trout from lakeO. The x-axis is year. The smoother has 1 nonlinear degrees of freedom. (b)–
(d) Derivatives of the smooth of orders 1–3. In contrast, Fig. 2.15 fits a local linear regression tothese data.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 25: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
Fig. 2.12 O-splines:number of knots K se-
lected from n unique xi,
for smooth.spline() isthe top function. The
lower function is (2.56)
for vsmooth.spline().Both axes are on a
logarithmic scale. The
top function intersectswith the dashed lines
at (50, 50), (200, 100),
(800, 140) and (3200, 200);logarithmic interpolation
is used for other n values.
5 10 50 500 5000
5
10
20
50
100
200
n
Effe
ctiv
e n
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 26: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
x
y
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
x0
Local WLS lineTrue function, fKernel function, KEstimated local regression
●
●
Raw yi
Weighted yi
Fig. 2.13 Local linear regression with n = 40 points. The kernel weights have been divided by 10
for scaling purposes. The vertical line is at the target point x0 = 0.7 so that three curves/lines
intersect at (x0, f(x0)). The shaded region is effectively the window for computing f(x0).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 27: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
−1 0 1 2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
u
(a) CosinusEpanechnikovGaussianQuartic
−1 0 1 2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
u
(b) TriangleTricubeTriweightUniform
Fig. 2.14 Kernel functions from Table 2.2. All but one has compact support.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 28: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
1974 1978 1982 1986
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
(a); Derivative = 0
year
rain
bow
/tota
l.fis
h
1974 1978 1982 1986
−0.025−0.020−0.015−0.010−0.005
0.0000.005
(b); Derivative = 1
Fig. 2.15 (a) Local linear regression fitted to the proportion of fish caught that are rainbow
trout from lakeO. The smoother has a bandwidth of h = 2.5 and uses the Gaussian kernel
function. (b) f ′(x). In contrast, Fig. 2.11 fits a cubic smoothing spline to these data.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 29: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
−0.
003
−0.
001
0.00
10.
003
x
EK
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
−0.
003
−0.
001
0.00
10.
003
x
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
−0.
003
−0.
001
0.00
10.
003
x
Fig. 2.16 Asymptotic equivalent kernel for f ′(x) from (2.82) The 101 xi are equally-spaced
on [0, 1] (as shown by the rugplot). The x0 values are 0.05, 0.25, 0.5 (vertical dashed lines), andthe bandwidth is 0.2. The kernel function K = φ(·).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 30: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
● ●
●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
5 10 15 20
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0(a)
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●● ● ●
5 10 15 20
1e−05
1e−03
1e−01(b)
Fig. 2.17 (a) Eigenvalues of the smoother matrix of a cubic smoothing spline. Here, n =
20 and the xi are equidistant on [0, 1]. (b) The same on a logarithmic scale. The two uniteigenvalues correspond to constant and linear functions. The corresponding eigenvectors are
plotted in Fig. 2.18.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 31: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
Eig
enve
ctor
−0.4
−0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4Eigenvector 1
5 10 15 20
Eigenvector 2 Eigenvector 3
5 10 15 20
Eigenvector 4 Eigenvector 5
Eigenvector 6 Eigenvector 7 Eigenvector 8 Eigenvector 9
−0.4
−0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4Eigenvector 10
−0.4
−0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4Eigenvector 11Eigenvector 12Eigenvector 13Eigenvector 14Eigenvector 15
5 10 15 20
Eigenvector 16Eigenvector 17
5 10 15 20
Eigenvector 18Eigenvector 19
5 10 15 20
−0.4
−0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4Eigenvector 20
Fig. 2.18 Successive eigenvectors corresponding to the eigenvalues of Fig. 2.17.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 32: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
Fig. 2.19 Equivalent kernel of acubic spline, κ(u) (Eq. (2.92)) −5 0 5
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
κ(u
)
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 33: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
● ● ● ● ● ● ●● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ● ●● ●●●
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
year
Pro
port
ion
fem
ale
linearquadraticB−spline
Fig. 2.20 Fitted values from some logistic regression models applied to chinese.nz. The re-sponse is the proportion of New Zealand Chinese who are female. The terms are year, poly(year,
2), bs(year, 4). Area sizes of the points are proportional to the number of people.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 34: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 02
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●●●
●
●
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
−6
−2
24
6
Deviance residuals●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●● ●
●
●
● ● ● ● ●●●●●●●●
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
−0.
50.
51.
52.
5
Working residuals
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●●●
●
●
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
−6
−2
24
68
Pearson residuals
●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
−0.
05−
0.02
0.00
Response residuals
Fig. 2.21 Four residual types for the regression spline fit of Fig. 2.20. The fitted values are
plotted on the x-axis.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 35: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Chapter 3
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
29
![Page 36: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 03
Fig. 3.1 An extension of the
fitted model fit.travel fromSect. 14.2.1, where the cost vari-
able is smoothed with regression
splines. The variable gcost standsfor ‘generalized cost’.
−100 −50 0 50 100
−5
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
gcost
Fitt
ed s
moo
th
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 37: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 03
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30
−240
−220
−200
−180
−160
µ
log−
likel
ihoo
d
(i)
−4 −3 −2 −1
−240
−220
−200
−180
−160
logit µ
log−
likel
ihoo
d
(ii)
Fig. 3.2 Log-likelihood ` as a function of (i) µ and (ii) η = logitµ, for the V1 data frame. The
model is a logistic regression with 3 or more hits defining ‘success’. The vertical dashed lines are
at the MLE µ. The dashed curves are the quadratic approximation to ` at µ.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 38: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 03
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.6
logit(P[Y>=2])
Observation
Hat
val
ues
●
●●
●● ●
●
●
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.6
logit(P[Y>=3])
Observation
Hat
val
ues
●
●● ●
● ●●
●
Fig. 3.3 Hat values from a proportional odds model fitted to the severity of pneumoconiosisdata set in coalminers, called pneumo.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 39: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Chapter 4
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
33
![Page 40: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 04
●●●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
30 40 50 60 70
60
80
100
120
140
160
Age
Blo
od p
ress
ure
(a)
●●●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
30 40 50 60 70
60
80
100
120
140
160 (b)
Fig. 4.1 (a) Scatter plot of diastolic (◦) and systolic (×) blood pressures (mm Hg) versus
age, for a random sample of 100 European-type females from xs.nz. (b) A vector smoothing
spline fit overlaid on the same. Each component function has 2 effective nonlinear degrees offreedom (ENDF).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 41: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 04
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
x
(a)
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
EK
(b) ρ = −0.9
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
EK
(c) ρ = −0.5
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3 (d) ρ = 0
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
EK
x
(e) ρ = 0.5
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
x
(f) ρ = 0.9
Fig. 4.2 (a) Data used from (4.6). The black curves are the true functions; (b)–(f) Equivalent
kernels based on (4.6) for various values of ρ. The row of the influence matrix corresponds
to f1(x = 0), and is midway between the boundaries.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 42: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 04
Fig. 4.3 O-
smoothing spline
(blue curve) fittedto scatter plot
data •, which is
equal to a leastsquares fit (black
line) plus thesum of individual
B-spline basis func-
tions; cf. Fig. 2.8.It corresponds to
the decomposi-
tion (4.12). Therugplot denotes the
position of the xi.
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
x
y ●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●●●
●
●
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 43: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 04
20 40 60 80
−2
−1
0
1
age
s(ag
e, d
f = c
(4, 4
, 2))
:1
20 40 60 80
−3
−2
−1
0
age
s(ag
e, d
f = c
(4, 4
, 2))
:2
20 40 60 80
−1
0
1
2
age
s(ag
e, d
f = c
(4, 4
, 2))
:3
Fig. 4.4 A bivariate odds ratio model fitted as a VGAM to a subset of female Europeans
from xs.nz, with household cat and dog ownership as the responses. The plots are the f(j)2(x2).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 44: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 04
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Age
Fitt
ed jo
int p
roba
bilit
ies
No cat or dogDog onlyCat onlyCat and dog
Fig. 4.5 Joint probabilities from fit.cd1.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 45: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 04
20 40 60 80
−2.
5−
1.5
−0.
50.
5
age
s(ag
e, d
f = c
(4, 4
, 2))
:1
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
−3.
0−
2.0
−1.
00.
0
age
s(ag
e, d
f = c
(4, 4
, 2))
:2
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
−1.
00.
01.
02.
0
age
s(ag
e, d
f = c
(4, 4
, 2))
:3
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
age
Log
odds
rat
io
Fig. 4.6 The first three plots are the fitted component functions overlaid; the modelsare fit1.cd are fit3.cd. The fourth plot is the estimated log odds ratios of fit3.cd.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 46: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
![Page 47: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Chapter 5
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
41
![Page 48: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 05
−0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
(a)
Latent psychological variable
Pro
babi
lity
asthmacancerdiabetesheartattackstroke
−0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
0.005
0.010
0.020
0.050
0.100
0.200(b)
Latent psychological variable
Pro
babi
lity
Fig. 5.1 (a) RR-VGLM-binomial model applied to several disease responses. The x-axis is ν, a
linear combination of 11 binary psychological variables. The y-axis is disease prevalence. (b) Thesame on a log scale.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 49: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 05
************************
******
*
*
**
*
*
*
*****
*
**********************
*
******
***
**********
*****************
***************
***************
*******
*
**
1962 1966 1970
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
wheat.flour
year
***
*
**
**
********
*******
*
*****
*
***
*
*
*********
*
*
*
********
**
*
*
*
**
*
***
***
*
*
**
**
***
*
***
*
*****
*
**
***
**
***
*
******
**
***
**
***
***
*
**
***
*
**
*
**
*********
*
*
1962 1966 1970
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
corn
year
***
*
**
*
*********
*************
*
**
*
***
**
*
*
*
***
**
******
***
***
*
***
***
*
***
*
*
**
*
**
*
*
*
****
******
**
**
*
**
*****
*****
*
******
***
**
*
*
**
****
*
**
*
*
**
*
*
**
*
*
*
*
*
1962 1966 1970
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
wheat
year
**
*
*
*
*
*
**
********
*
******
********
*
****
*
******
***
******
*
*
****
*
**
*
*
**
***
**
********
*
*********
*
*
*
***********
**
********
*
****
********
*
*
**
*
*
*****
*****
1962 1966 1970
0.9
1.1
1.3
rye
year
Fig. 5.2 Monthly average prices of Grain series, January 1961–October 1972, in dataframe grain.us.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 50: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 05
************************
******
*
*
**
*
*
*
*****
*
**********************
*
******
***
**********
*****************
***************
***************
*******
*
**
1962 1966 1970
−1.
5−
0.5
0.5
1.5
Z1
year
***
*
**
**
********
*******
*
*****
*
***
*
*
******
***
*
*
*
********
**
*
*
*
**
*
***
***
*
*
**
**
***
*
***
*
*****
*
**
***
**
***
*
******
**
***
**
***
***
*
**
***
*
**
*
**
*
********
*
*
1962 1966 1970−0.
2−
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Z2
year
***
*
***
************
*****
*****
**
**
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
**
*
*********
*
*
*
***
*
***
******
*
**
**
*
**
**
*******
****
**
**
*
**
******
**
*********
***
***
*
******
*
***
*
****
**
*
****
1962 1966 1970
−0.
40.
00.
20.
4
Z3
year
**
*
***
*
**
*********
******
********
**
*
*
*
*****
***********
*
*
********
*
*
******
*********
***********
************
********
***
************
*
****
*
*******
*
**
1962 1966 1970
−0.
40.
00.
20.
4
Z4
year
Fig. 5.3 Canonical variables of the Grain Price series, January 1961–October 1972.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 51: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 05
Time
Day
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1011121314151617 18 19 20 21 22 23MonTueWedThu
Fri
Sat
Sun
Fig. 5.4 Mosaic plot of alcoff; the area sizes are proportional to the counts.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 52: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 05
Row effects
Hour
Hou
rly e
ffect
s
19 22 1* 4* 7 9 12 15 18
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5Column effects
Effective day
Effe
ctiv
e da
ily e
ffect
s
Mon* Wed* Fri* Sat* Sun*
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Fig. 5.5 Hourly and effective daily effects of a rank-0 Goodman’s RC model fitted to alcoff.This is output from plot(grc0.alcoff).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 53: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 05
Row effects
Per
son
effe
cts
Richard Kim Rod Bert Lisa
−4
−2
0
2
4
Column effects
Item
effe
cts
q04 q07 q10 q13 q16
−4
−2
0
2
4
Fig. 5.6 Rasch fixed effects model to exam1, Eq. (5.29). Only a few people and items arelabelled.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 54: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 05
typeA typeC typeE
−1.
5−
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Est
imat
e●
●●
●
●
(a)
A B C D E
−1.
5−
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Est
imat
e
●
●●
●
●
(b)
A B C D E
−1.
5−
0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
Est
imat
e
●
●●
●
●
(c)
Fig. 5.7 Quasi-variances computed for the ships data in MASS. The fitted model is a quasi-
Poisson-GLM fitted to the ship data (McCullagh & Nelder, 1989) with respect to ship types (A–E)on the damage rate on a log scale. (a) Confidence intervals for contrasts with type A ships based
on conventional standard errors; (b) Comparison intervals based on quasi-variances; (c) 5% LSD
intervals (arrows) based on quasi-variances overlaid on (b). For (a)–(c), the formulas are βi ±2 SE(βi), βi ± 2
√qi and βi ± z(0.025)
√qi/2, respectively.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 55: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
Chapter 6
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
49
![Page 56: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 06
(a) CommunityE
(Y)
(b) Individualistic continuum
(c) Resource niche
E(Y
)
(d) Independent strata with resource niches
Fig. 6.1 Four hypothetical models for community ecology, along a gradient or latent variable.Plot (c) corresponds to a species packing model.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 57: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 06
−2 −1 0 1 2 3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140(a)
Latent Variable
Fitt
ed v
alue
s
●●●●●●●● ● ● ● ●● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●● ●●● ●●
●
●
AlopacceAlopcuneAlopfabrArctluteArctperiAuloalbiPardmontPardnigrPardpullTrocterrZoraspin
−2 −1 0 1 2 3
0
20
40
60
80
100
(b)
Latent Variable
Exp
ecte
d Va
lue
AlopacceAlopcuneAlopfabr
ArctluteArctperi
Auloalbi
Pardmont
Pardnigr
Pardpull
Trocterr
Zoraspin
Fig. 6.2 Ordination of 11 species from the hspider data frame; a Poisson model with unequaltolerances, called p1ut.hs.2. (a) lvplot() output. (b) persp() output, which is a perspectiveplot and a ‘continuous’ version of (a).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 58: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 06
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140(a)
Latent Variable
Fitt
ed v
alue
s
●●●●●●●● ●● ● ●● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●● ●● ●●● ●●●●●●●●●●
●
● ●
●●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●● ●●● ●●
●
●
●
AlopacceAlopcuneAlopfabrArctluteArctperiAuloalbiPardluguPardmontPardnigrPardpullTrocterrZoraspin
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
(b)
Latent Variable
Exp
ecte
d Va
lue
AlopacceAlopcuneAlopfabr
ArctluteArctperi
AuloalbiPardlugu
PardmontPardnigr
Pardpull
Trocterr
Zoraspin
Fig. 6.3 Ordination of 12 species from the hspider data frame; a Poisson model with equaltolerances, called p1et.hs. (a) lvplot() output. (b) persp() output, which is a perspective plotand a ‘continuous’ version of (a).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 59: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 06
Late
nt V
aria
ble
1
−6−4
−2
0
2
4
Latent Variable 2
−6−4
−2
0
2
Expected value
0
50
100
Fig. 6.4 Perspective plot of a rank-2 CQO fitted to the hspider data frame, called p2et.hs.All 12 species are fitted, using an equal-tolerances Poisson model, but only the response surfaces
of the dominant species may be seen. See also Fig. 6.6 for an ordination diagram of the above.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 60: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 06
isd.latvar = 0.5
Latent variable
−0.5 0.0 0.5
isd.latvar = 1
Latent variable
−1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
isd.latvar = 2
Latent variable
−3.5 −2.5 −1.5 −0.5 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5
isd.latvar = 5
Latent variable
−9.0 −6.5 −4.0 −1.5 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0
Fig. 6.5 The effect of the argument isd.latvar on the site scores. All response curves haveunit tolerances (because Ts = IR ∀s), and the optimums are located the same relative distance
from each other. The site scores are uniformly distributed over the latent variable space, and have
been scaled to have a standard deviation isd.latvar. The tick marks are at the same values.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 61: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 06
−2 0 2 4 6
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
(a)
Latent Variable 1
Late
nt V
aria
ble
2
+
++
+
++
+
+
+
++
+
Alopacce
AlopcuneAlopfabr
Arctlute
ArctperiAuloalbi
Pardlugu
Pardmont
Pardnigr
PardpullTrocterr
Zoraspin
1
2
34
5
6
7
8
9
10
1112
13
14
15
16
17
18
1920
21
22
23
24
2526
2728
−2 0 2 4 6
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
(b)
Latent Variable 1
Late
nt V
aria
ble
2
+
++
+
++
+
+
+
++
+
Alopacce
AlopcuneAlopfabr
Arctlute
ArctperiAuloalbi
Pardlugu
Pardmont
Pardnigr
PardpullTrocterr
Zoraspin
WaterCon
BareSandFallTwig
CoveMoss
CoveHerb
ReflLux
1
2
34
5
6
7
8
9
10
1112
13
14
15
16
17
18
1920
21
22
23
24
2526
2728
Fig. 6.6 Ordination diagrams of 12 species from the hspider data frame; the Poisson
model p2et.hs with equal tolerances. A convex hull surrounds the site scores. In (a), the circles
indicate the abundance of each species at 95% of its maximum abundance. In (b), the arrowsdisplay the contribution of each environmental variable towards each of the ordination axes.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 62: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 06
1e−04 1e−02 1e+00
1e−
041e
−02
1e+
00
Fitted value for 'first' species
Fitt
ed v
alue
for
'sec
ond'
spe
cies
152118172016198
2 614 57 13 4
311291125
1027
242823
2226
15211817
2016198
26
14
57
13
4
3
11291125
10272428232226
152118172016198
26
14
57
13
4
3
11291125
10272428232226
Alopacce and AlopcuneAlopacce and AlopfabrAlopcune and Alopfabr
Fig. 6.7 Trajectory plot of three hunting spiders species. A rank-1 Poisson CQO is fitted to
these. Site numbers have been placed on each curve.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 63: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 06
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Latent Variable
Exp
ecte
d Va
lue
AlopacceAlopcuneAlopfabr
ArctluteArctperiAuloalbiPardlugu
PardmontPardnigr
Pardpull
Trocterr
Zoraspin
Fig. 6.8 Two calibrated sites from a rank-1 equal-tolerances Poisson QRR-VGLM fitted to the
hunting spiders data without those 2 sites. The thick vertical lines are the CQO sites scores νi,
and the thinner vertical lines are the calibrated sites scores νi. Each i has the same colour andline type.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 64: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 06
Fig. 6.9 Perspective
plot of an unequal-
tolerances PoissonCQO model fitted to
the trapO trout data.
Legend: “B” = browntrout, “R” = rainbow
trout, “F” = female,“M” = male. The trap
was located at the Te
Whaiau Trap, hencethe “TW”. The BFTW
response curve has unit
tolerance.
−4 −2 0 2 4
0
5
10
15
20
25
Latent Variable
Exp
ecte
d Va
lue
BFTW
BMTW
RFTW
RMTW
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 65: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 06
●
●
●
●
●
−0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0(a)
attr(pdata, "optimums")
Coe
f(uq
o.gr
c1)@
A
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
−1.5 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
−1.5
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0(b)
attr(pdata, "latvar")
c(fil
l.val
, Coe
f(uq
o.gr
c1)@
C)
−1.5 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
(c)
Latent Variable
Fitt
ed v
alue
s
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
−1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
(d)
Latent Variable
Fitt
ed v
alue
s●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●● ●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
Fig. 6.10 (a)–(b) compares the UQO solution with the truth for a rank-1 Poisson simulateddata set. (a) Estimated optimums uj versus uj . (b) Estimated site scores νi versus νi. (c) CQO
fitted to the original data. (d) CQO fitted to the scaled UQO site scores. In (a)–(b) the dashedorange line is a simple linear regression through the points.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 66: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
![Page 67: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
Chapter 7
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
61
![Page 68: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 07
−1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−4
02
4
Alopacce
−1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−4
02
4
Alopcune
−1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−4
02
4
Alopfabr
−1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−4
02
4
Arctlute
−1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−4
02
4
Arctperi
−1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−4
02
4
Auloalbi
−1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−4
02
4
Pardlugu
−1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−4
02
4Pardmont
−1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−4
02
4
Pardnigr
−1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−4
02
4
Pardpull
−1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−4
02
4
Trocterr
−1.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
−4
02
4
Zoraspin
Fig. 7.1 Estimated (uncentred) component functions of p1cao.hs, a rank-1 Poisson RR-VGAM
fitted to the hspider data. The x-axis is ν.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 69: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 07
Fig. 7.2 Perspective
plot of a rank-1 Poisson
RR-VGAM fitted tothe trapO data. The
latent variable of this
CAO, which is pre-dominantly the day
of the year, has unitvariance. The responses
are combinations of
male and female rain-bow and brown trout,
all captured at the
Te Whaiau Trap of LakeOtamangakau. See also
Fig. 6.9.
−2 −1 0 1 2
0
5
10
15
20
Latent VariableE
xpec
ted
Valu
e
BFTW
BMTW
RFTW
RMTW
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 70: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 07
−2 −1 0 1 2 3
−10
−8
−6
−4
−2
0asthma
Latent Variable
Fitt
ed fu
nctio
n
−2 −1 0 1 2 3
−10
−8
−6
−4
−2
0cancer
Latent Variable
Fitt
ed fu
nctio
n
−2 −1 0 1 2 3
−10
−8
−6
−4
−2
0diabetes
Latent Variable
Fitt
ed fu
nctio
n
−2 −1 0 1 2 3
−10
−8
−6
−4
−2
0heartattack
Latent Variable
Fitt
ed fu
nctio
n
−2 −1 0 1 2 3
−10
−8
−6
−4
−2
0stroke
Latent Variable
Fitt
ed fu
nctio
n
Fig. 7.3 Component functions (uncentred) of a rank-1 binomial RR-VGAM fitted to a subset ofthe xs.nz data. The latent variable of this CAO is a linear combination of 11 binary psychological
variables.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 71: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 07
−2 0 2
−4
−2
0
2
4
latvar1
s(la
tvar
1, d
f = 1
.25)
:1
−2 0 2
−4
−2
0
2
4
latvar1
s(la
tvar
1, d
f = 1
.25)
:2
−2 0 2
−4
−2
0
2
4
latvar1
s(la
tvar
1, d
f = 1
.25)
:3
−2 0 2
−4
−2
0
2
4
latvar1
s(la
tvar
1, d
f = 1
.25)
:4
−2 0 2
−4
−2
0
2
4
latvar1
s(la
tvar
1, d
f = 1
.25)
:5
−2 0 2
−0.
8−
0.4
latvar1
s'(la
tvar
1, d
f = 1
.25)
:1
−2 0 2
0.15
0.25
0.35
latvar1
s'(la
tvar
1, d
f = 1
.25)
:2
−2 0 2
1.25
1.30
1.35
latvar1s'
(latv
ar1,
df =
1.2
5):3
−2 0 2
−1.
6−
1.4
−1.
2
latvar1
s'(la
tvar
1, d
f = 1
.25)
:4
−2 0 2
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
latvar1
s'(la
tvar
1, d
f = 1
.25)
:5
Fig. 7.4 Top row: component functions (centred) of a rank-1 binomial RR-VGAM fitted to a
subset of the xs.nz data, cf. Fig. 7.3. The latent variable of this CAO is a linear combination of 11binary psychological variables. Bottom row: first derivatives of the respective fitted functions.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 72: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
![Page 73: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
Chapter 8
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
67
![Page 74: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 08
Fig. 8.1 Response yi (×) in
a simple linear regression, withshrinkage initial values (•) based
on s = 12
in (8.5). The dashed hor-izontal line is at y, and s is argu-
ment ishrinkage. x2
y ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 75: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 08
−0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
−0.
4−
0.2
0.0
0.2
(a)
sex01
part
ial f
or s
ex01
A
−0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
−0.
4−
0.2
0.0
0.2
(b)
sex01
part
ial f
or s
ex01
Fig. 8.2 Fitted logistic regression VGAM (the response is nofriend) to European-type peoplein xs.nz with (a) noxmean = FALSE, (b) noxmean = TRUE. In (a), the point A, which has 0 as its
SE, has been explictly added to the plot, whereas it has been omitted in (b). The x-coordinate
of A is at the mean of the variable sex01. The y-coordinate is 0 because component functionsare centred.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 76: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
![Page 77: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
Chapter 9
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
71
![Page 78: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 09
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●
−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
x2
Naive logistic regressionBias−reduced logistic regressionBias−reduced probit regression
Fig. 9.1 Fitted curves for three binary regression models fitted to completely-separable data,with n = 20. A grey vertical line at x2 = 0 is plotted. If there were an additional two points
at (0, 0) and (0, 1) then the data would have quasi-complete separation.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 79: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
Chapter 10
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
73
![Page 80: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 10
0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
1
2
3
4
E
NO
x
LowerMiddleUpper
(a)
8 10 12 14 16 18
1
2
3
4
C
(b)
0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
−2
−1
0
1
2
β1(E)
E
s(E
, df =
5.8
):1
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
(c)
0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
−0.10
−0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
β2(E)
E
s(E
, df =
5.8
):2
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● (d)
Fig. 10.1 (a)–(b) Scatter plots of the ethanol data stratified by C and E respectively. In (a) C
has been split into low, medium and high subgroups. In (b) E has been split into three similar
subgroups—see Fig. 10.2 for an expansion. Plots (c)–(d) are the estimated (centred) component
functions of the VCM (10.5) where both the intercept and slope are a smoothing spline of the
variable E. The dashed lines are pointwise ±2 SEs about the βj(E). The points about the curves
are the working residuals.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 81: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 10
C
NO
x
1
2
3
4
8 10 12 14 16 18
low
8 10 12 14 16 18
medium
8 10 12 14 16 18
high
Fig. 10.2 Expansion of Fig. 10.1(b) with a least squares line added to each subset.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 82: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 10
● ●● ● ●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
Income
Spe
ndin
g
●
censoreduncensored
TruthEstimateNaive
(a)
● ●● ● ●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
0
1
2
3
4
5 (b)"uncensored""censored""mean.obs"
Fig. 10.3 Tobit model fitted to some simulated data. This mimics the type of problem moti-
vating Tobin (1958), viz. spending is non-negative, and is linear beyond a certain income. Values
of zero are plotted with a different colour and symbol for clarity. (a) The purple dashed line isa naıve fit that treats all values as if they were ‘real’. The estimate and the truth are similar.
(b) The 3 types of fitted values currently distinguished by the argument type.fitted.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 83: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 10
200 600
−100
−50
0
50
capital.g
bs(c
apita
l.g)
1500 2500
−40−20
020406080
value.g
bs(v
alue
.g)
0 50 100 200
−40−30−20−10
010
capital.w
bs(c
apita
l.w)
200 600 1000
−200
204060
value.wbs
(val
ue.w
)
Fig. 10.4 Smooths of a SUR model applied to the gew data. The fitted model is called fit.rs.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 84: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
![Page 85: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
Chapter 11
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
79
![Page 86: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 11
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
y
Den
sity ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
(a)
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0
y
Den
sity
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
(b)
Fig. 11.1 Acceptance-rejection method for generating random variates. The solid blue pointsare accepted; the hollow orange points are rejected. (a) The density g = dunif() is used to
generate Beta(2, 4) random variates. The vertical line at y = 0.25 denotes the position of the
mode, thus defining C = f(0.25). (b) A Kumaraswamy(3, 4) density (f ; blue) is overshadowedby a scaled Beta(3, 2) density (C · g(y); purple dashed); the scaling constant is C = 1.5.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 87: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 11
mu
size
5 10 20 50 100 200 500 1000
0.5
1.0
2.0
5.0
10.0
20.0
Fig. 11.2 Contour plot of qnbinom(0.995, size = size, mu = mu), where µ and k are ona log-scale. Regions of the (µ, k)-space with a value less than 1000, say, might have the EIM
computed by the exact method (11.5). Some of the contour levels appear jagged due to the
discrete nature of qnbinom().
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 88: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 11
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
−9975
−9970
−9965
−9960
−9955
−9950
a21
Log−
likel
ihoo
d
●
●
NB−2
NB−1
RR−NB●
Fig. 11.3 Profile log-likelihood `(a21) for rrnb.azpro; `(a21) is the highest point. The MLEand likelihood-ratio confidence limits are the orange horizontal lines. The Wald confidence limits
are the grey vertical lines. The point at a21 = 0 is ` for NB-2 (intercept-only for k). The point
at a21 = 1 is ` for NB-1.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 89: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 11
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
µ
Sta
ndar
d de
viat
ion
(a)
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
ρ
●
●
●
(b)
Fig. 11.4 Standard deviation, SD(Y ∗i ), in the beta-binomial distribution, from (11.13)
with Ni = 10. (a) As a function of µ, for ρ = 0.33 (blue), ρ = 0.67 (green) and ρ = 0 (or-
ange dashed). (b) As a function of ρ, where µi = 0.5.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 90: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
![Page 91: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
Chapter 12
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
85
![Page 92: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 12
−40 −30 −20 −10 0
−80
−70
−60
−50
−40
Log−
likel
ihoo
d
a
Fig. 12.1 Log-likelihood `(a) as a function of the location parameter, for a random sample of
size 10 from a standard Cauchy distribution. The dashed vertical line denotes a, and the purple ×denotes the data.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 93: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 12
●●
● ●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●● ●
●●
0.2 1.0 5.0 20.0
0.2
0.51.02.0
5.010.020.0
50.0(a); q−type function
sort(y1)
Est
imat
ed q
uant
iles
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0(b); p−type function
pvector
Est
imat
ed C
DF
from
the
mod
el
●
●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●● ● ● ●●●●
●●●●●
●
●
2 5 10 20
1
2
5
10
20(c); q−type function
sort(y2)
Est
imat
ed q
uant
iles
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0(d); p−type function
pvector
Est
imat
ed C
DF
from
the
mod
el
Fig. 12.2 QQ-plots of 2 simulated data sets. A Birnbaum-Saunders distribution is fitted to both.(a)–(b) Data from a Birnbaum-Saunders distribution; (c)–(d) data from a Frechet distribution.
Plots (a) and (c) are based on the q-type function, and both axes are on a log-scale. Plots (b)
and (d) use the p-type function. A x = y line appears in all plots.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 94: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 12
0 2 4 6 8 10
0
2
4
6
8
Shape parameter s
Sta
ndar
d er
rors
(a)
0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 5.0 10.0
0.1
0.2
0.5
1.0
2.0
5.0
10.0(b)
b = e−1
b = e0
b = e1
b = e−1
b = e0
b = e1
b = e−1
b = e0
b = e1
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
y
Den
sity
(c)
0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.0 5.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
y (log−scale)
(d)
Fig. 12.3 The 2-parameter gamma distribution (12.10). (a) SE(b) are the solid curves, forvarious values of the scale parameter b given in the legend of (b). The purple dashed line is SE(s).
(b) The same with both axes on a log-scale. (c) The densities with shape parameters s = e0 (solid
lines) and e1 (dashed). (d) The same as (c) with one axis on a log-scale.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 95: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
Chapter 13
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
89
![Page 96: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 13
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ● ●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●●●
●
●
●●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
● ●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
−3 −1 1 3
−3−2−1
0123
ρ = −0.5
y1
y 2
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●● ●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
−3 −1 1 3
−3−2−1
0123
ρ = 0
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
● ●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
● ●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
−3 −1 1 3
−3−2−1
0123
ρ = 0.9
Fig. 13.1 250 random vectors generated from a standard bivariate normal distribution, withvarious values of ρ.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 97: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 13
20 40 60
−10
−5
0
5
10
15
20
age
s(ag
e, d
f = c
(4, 4
, 3, 3
, 3))
20 40 60
−0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
age
s(ag
e, d
f = c
(4, 4
, 3, 3
, 3))
20 40 60
−1.0
−0.8
−0.6
−0.4
−0.2
0.0
0.2
age
s(ag
e, d
f = c
(4, 4
, 3, 3
, 3))
:5
Fig. 13.2 Fitted (centred) component functions of a VGAM N2 fitted to diastolic and systolic
blood pressures data, versus age. The data set are 5649 male Europeans from xs.nz. From left
to right, those for µ1 and µ2, those for log σ1 and log σ2, those for log((1 + ρ)/(1− ρ)).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 98: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 13
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
y1
y 2
(a) ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
y1
(b)
Fig. 13.3 500 random vectors generated from two copulas. (a) Bivariate Gaussian copulawith α = ρ = 0.8. (b) Bivariate Frank copula with α = 50.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 99: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/99.jpg)
Chapter 14
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
93
![Page 100: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/100.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 14
0.0 0.5 1.0
−0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Latent Variable 1
Late
nt V
aria
ble
2
log(mu[,1]/mu[,2])
log(mu[,3]/mu[,2])
log(mu[,4]/mu[,2])
depressed
embarrassed
fedup
hurtmiserable
nofriend
moody
nervous
tense
worry
worrier
Fig. 14.1 Biplot of a RR-MLM fitted to marital status in xs.nz, with the latent variables
being linear combinations of 11 binary psychological variables. The x- and y-axes are ν1 and ν2,respectively. The groups are: 1 single, 2 married/partnered (baseline), 3 divorced/separated,
4 widowed.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 101: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/101.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 14
Fig. 14.2 Latent vari-
able Y ′ interpretation
for the cumulative logitmodel. Here, β(j)1 are
thresholds or cutoffpoints so that Pr(Y ≤j|x) = Pr(Y ′ ≤ β(j)1).
Then pj = Pr(Y = j|x).The distribution is a
logistic (see (14.18)).Y'β(1)1 β(2)1 β(3)1 β(4)1
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 102: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/102.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 14
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
−8
−6
−4
−2
0
2
(a)
let
s(le
t, df
= 3
)
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0(b)
Log exposure time
Fitt
ed v
alue
●● ●
●●
●●
22
2
2
2
2
22
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6(c)
Log exposure time
Pr(
Y>
=j),
j =
2, 3
3 33
33
3
3
3
1
1
1
11 1 1 1
2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
−0.6
−0.4
−0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
(d)
Log exposure time
Mar
gina
l effe
cts
22
2 2 22
223
33
33
33 3
Fig. 14.3 Nonparametric nonparallel cumulative logit model fitted to the pneumo data: (a) the
two centred functions are overlaid on to one plot; (b) the fitted values as a function of let
with sample proportions plotted proportional to their counts; (c) reversed cumulative probabili-
ties P (Y ≥ j) for j = 2, 3. (d) Proportional odds model: the marginal effects for variable let for
each of the 3 levels.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 103: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/103.jpg)
Chapter 15
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
97
![Page 104: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/104.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 15
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
y
Box
−C
ox tr
ansf
orm
atio
n of
y
(a)−5−30135
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
3
y
Yeo
−Jo
hnso
n tr
ansf
orm
atio
n of
y (b)−5−30135
Fig. 15.1 (a) The Box-Cox transformation (yλ − 1)/λ for various values of λ. (b) The Yeo-
Johnson transformation ψ(λ, y).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 105: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/105.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 15
20 30 40 50 60 70 80
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
ageB
MI
12345678910
Counts
Fig. 15.2 Hexagonal binning plot of BMI versus age for European-type women in xs.nz.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 106: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/106.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 15
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
−1
01
2
age
s(ag
e, d
f = c
(2, 4
, 2))
:1
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
−2
−1
01
2
age
s(ag
e, d
f = c
(2, 4
, 2))
:2
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
−0.
3−
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
age
s(ag
e, d
f = c
(2, 4
, 2))
:3
Fig. 15.3 Plot of the VGAM component functions of w0.LMS0, a lms.bcn() fit of BMI versus age
for European-type women in the xs.nz data frame. These are (centred) λ(x), µ(x), log σ(x).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 107: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/107.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 15
20 40 60 80 100
1520
2530
3540
45
age
BM
I
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
● ●
●● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●
●● ●
●
● ●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●● ● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
● ●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
● ●●●
●●
●
●●
●● ●
●
●
●● ●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
● ●
●
● ●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
● ●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●●●●
● ●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●●
● ●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
● ●●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●● ●
● ●●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●●
● ●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●● ●●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
● ●● ●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●● ●●●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●● ●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●● ● ●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
● ●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●●
●
●●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●● ●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●● ●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
● ●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●● ●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●●●
●●●●
● ●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
● ●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●●
● ●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●● ●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●●
●
●●● ●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
● ●
● ●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●● ●
●
●
●●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
5%25%50%75%
95%
(a)
15 20 25 30 35
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
BMI
dens
ity 2030
(b)
Fig. 15.4 (a) Quantile and (b) density plots of w0.LMS. In (b) the estimated densities are for 20
and 30 year olds, and the vertical lines denote an approximate healthy range.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 108: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/108.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 15
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
20
30
40
50
60
age
BM
I50%
o
o
o
o
o
o
o oo o
o
o
o
o
o
o oo oo
o
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
oo
o o
o
o o
oo o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
oo
oo oo
ooo
o o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
ooo
oo
o
oo
oo
o
o oo
o
o
o
o
ooo
oo
o
o
ooooo
oo
oo oo
o oo
ooo
ooo
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
oo
oo
oo
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o o
oo
o
o
o
o ooo o
o
oo
o
o
oo
ooo
ooo o o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
o oo
o
o oo
o
ooo
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
oo
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
o o
o
oo
o
o oo ooo
o
oo
oo o
o
ooo oo
oo
o
oo o
o
o
o
oo
o
o o
o
o
o
o
oo
oo
oo
o o
o
oo
o
oo oo
o
o
o
o o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o o
o o
oo
o
oo
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo oo
ooo o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o o
oo
o
o
o
o
oo
o oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooo
o
oo
o
oooo o
o
o oo
o
oo
o
o o
o
o
oo
oo
o
o o
oo o
o
oo
o
o
o oo
oo o
oo
ooo
o
o
oo
oo
o
oo
oo
o
oo
o oo
oo o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o ooo
oo
oooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooo
o
o
o
o
oo
ooo o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
oo
oo
o oo
o
oo
o
oooo
o
o
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o o o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o o o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o o
o
o
oo
o
o o
o
o
o
oo
oo
oo
o
o
oo
oo
oo
o
o
ooo
o
o
o
o
oo
oo
o
o
oo
o oo
o
o
oo
o
oo
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o o
o o
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
oo
oo o
o
o oo
oo
o
ooo o
o
o
oo
ooo
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o oo
o oo
oo
o
oo
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o ooo
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
ooo
o
o
o
oo o
o
oo
oooo
o
o
o o
o
o
o
o o
ooo
o
oo
oo
o
oo
ooo
ooo
o o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
ooo
o
o
oo
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
oo
o
oo
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o ooooo o
oo
o
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooo
o
oo
o
o
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
oo o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
ooo
ooo o
o
o
o
o o
o o
o
o
o
oo
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
oo
oo
oo
o
o
oo
o o
oo
oo
oo
o
o
ooo o
oo o
o
o
oo
o
oo
o
o
oo
oo
oooo
o
oo
oo
oo o o
o
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
oooo
o
o ooo
ooo
o
o oo
oo
o
oo ooo
o
o
o o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
oooo
oo
o
o
oo o
o
o
o
o
o o
o
o oo
oo
oo
oo
o
o o
oo o
oo
oo
o
o
oo
o o
oo
o
oo o
oo
o o
o
o
o
o o
oo o
o oo
o
oo o
oo
oo
oo
o
o
o
o oo
o oo
oo
o
o
o oo
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
oo
oo
oo
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
ooo
o
o
o
o
ooo
oo
o
o
o
o
oo
ooo
oo oo
o
oo
o oo
o
o
o
o
oo oo
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o o
oo oo o
o
o
o o
oo
o
o
oo
ooo o
ooo
o
o
o
o oo
o
ooo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
oo
oo
oo
oo
oo
o o
o
o
o
o
o
o o
o
oo
oo
oooo
o
o
o
oo
o
oo o
o
o
oo
ooo
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
oo o o
o
o
ooo
oo
oo
o
o
ooo o oo
ooo
o
o
o
o
oo
oo
o
ooo
o
o oo
o oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
oo
oo
ooo
oo
o
oo
o
oo
oooo
oo
o
o
o o
o
o oo
o
ooooo
o
o
o
oo
o
o oo
o
o
o
o
o
oo
oo
o
oo
o
o
o
o
ooo
o
o
o
o oo
oo
o
o
o o oo
o
o
o o
oo
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
oo
o
oo
o
o
oo
ooo
o
o
o
ooo o
o
o
o
o o o
o
o
o
oo
oo
o
ooo
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
ooo
o
o
o ooo
o o
oo
o
o ooo
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o o
o
oo
o
oo
o ooo
o
o
o
o
oo
oo
o
o
o
oooo
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
ooo o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
oo
o
oo o
oo o
o
o
oo
ooo
oo
oooo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o ooo
o
o
o oo
o
o
o
ooo
oo
oo
ooo o
o
oo
o ooooo
o
o
oo
o o
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
oo
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
ooo
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
oo
oo
oo
oo
oo
ooo
oo o
o
o
ooo
o
o
o o o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
ooo
oo
o oo
o
oo o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o o
o o
o
ooo
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
oooo
o
o
oo
o o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo o
o
o
o
oo
oo
o
o
ooo o
oo
o oo
oo
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
oo
o o
o
o o o
o
o
oo
o o
o
o
o
o o
o
o
o
o
o
o o
o
o
o
o o
o
o
o
oo o
o
o
o oo
o
o
o
o
oo
o
oo
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
oo
oo
o o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
ooo
o o
o
o o
o
oo o
o
o
o
oo
oo
o
o
oo
oo
o
oooo
oo o
o
o
o o
o
o
ooo o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
oo
oo
oo
o
o
oo oo
o
oo
o
oo
o
o o oo
o
o
o
oo
o
oo
ooo
oo
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o o
o
o o
o
o
o
oo
o
o o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
oo
oo
o
oo
o
o
o
o
oo
oo ooo
o
o
o
o
o
oo
ooo o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
o o
o
o
oo
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
oo
oo
o
o
ooo
o
o
o
o
o o
oo
o
oo
o
o
o o
oo
oo
o o
oo o
oo
o
o
o
o ooo
o o ooo
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o o oo oo
o o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
oo
oo
ooo
o
o oo
o oo
oo oo
o o
o
o o
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
oo
oo
o
o
o
o oo
o
oo
o
oooo
o o o
o o
o o
o
o
o
o
o ooo
o
oo
oo
o
o
o
o o
oo
o
oo
o
o
oo o
o o
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o o
oo
oo
o
oo
o o
o o
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo ooo
oo
o
o
ooo
o o
o
oo
oo
o
o o ooo
o
oo
o
oo
o
o ooo o
o
oo
o
ooo oo
o
o
oo
oo
o
o
o
o o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o ooo
o
o
o
o o
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
oo o
o
o
o
o
o o
o
o
o
o
oo
oo
o
oo
o
o
o
o
ooo o
o
o
ooo oo
o
oo
oo
oo
o
o oo oo
o
oo
o
ooo
oo
oo
o
o o
o
oo oo
o
oo
o
o oo
o
o
o
o
o o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
oo
o
o o
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
oo
o
o oo
o
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o50%
Fig. 15.5 Output of qtplot() when there are non-primary variables. The two groups are
European and Pacific island women. The fitted 50-percentiles differ by a constant.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 109: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/109.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 15
−2 −1 0 1 2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Loss
(a)τ = 0.5τ = 0.9
−2 −1 0 1 2
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0 (b)ω = 0.5ω = 0.9
Fig. 15.6 Loss functions for: (a) quantile regression with τ = 0.5 (L1 regression) and τ = 0.9;
(b) expectile regression with ω = 0.5 (least squares) and ω = 0.9. Note: (a) is also known as the
asymmetric absolute loss function or pinball loss function.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 110: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/110.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 15
ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
oooooooo
ooooo
ooooooooo
o
o
ooo
o
ooo
o
oo
ooo
o
oo
o
ooo
o
o
o
ooo
oo
o
oooo
o
o
ooo
o
o
oo
o
oo
oo
o
o
oo
o
oo
oooo
o
o
oo
oo
oo
o
ooooo
o
oo
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooo
o
o
oo
ooooo
oo
o
oo
o
oo
oo
o
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
ooo
o
o
oooo
oo
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooooo
oo
o
o
oo
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooooo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
ooo
o
o
ooo
o
oo
o
o
o
ooo
ooo
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oooo
oooo
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
ooo
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oooo
o
o
o
ooo
oo
o
oo
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
ooo
ooooooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooooo
o
o
oo
o
ooo
o
o
ooo
o
o
oooo
o
o
oo
oooo
ooooo
oooo
oooo
oo
oo
oo
ooooo
o
ooooooooo
o
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0
5
10
15
x2
y
(a)
ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
oooooooo
ooooo
ooooooooo
o
o
ooo
o
ooo
o
oo
ooo
o
oo
o
ooo
o
o
o
ooo
oo
o
oooo
o
o
ooo
o
o
oo
o
oo
oo
o
o
oo
o
oo
oooo
o
o
oo
oo
oo
o
ooooo
o
oo
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooo
o
o
oo
ooooo
oo
o
oo
o
oo
oo
o
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
ooo
o
o
oooo
oo
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooooo
oo
o
o
oo
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooooo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
ooo
o
o
ooo
o
oo
o
o
o
ooo
ooo
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oooo
oooo
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
ooo
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oooo
o
o
o
ooo
oo
o
oo
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
ooo
ooooooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooooo
o
o
oo
o
ooo
o
o
ooo
o
o
oooo
o
o
oo
oooo
ooooo
oooo
oooo
oo
oo
oo
ooooo
o
ooooooooo
o
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0
5
10
15
x2
y
(b)
Fig. 15.7 (a) Scatter plot of simulated Poisson counts (15.19). The points have been jittered
slightly. (b) Fitted L∗(ξ = exp{β∗(s)1
+ f∗(s)2
(xi2)}, σ = 1, τ = ( 14, 34
)T ) model to the data. The
smooth curves are the fitted τ = 0.25 and 0.75 quantiles from a vector smoothing spline fit. The
step functions are the output from qpois() at the corresponding τ values. The actual sampleproportions lying below the curves are 35.2 and 79.6 percent. See also Fig. 15.8(b).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 111: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/111.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 15
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
−4
−3
−2
−1
0
x2
s(x2
, df =
4)
(a)
ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
oooooooo
ooooo
ooooooooo
o
o
ooo
o
ooo
o
oo
ooo
o
oo
o
ooo
o
o
o
ooo
oo
o
oooo
o
o
ooo
o
o
oo
o
oo
oo
o
o
oo
o
oo
oooo
o
o
oo
oo
oo
o
ooooo
o
oo
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooo
o
o
oo
ooooo
oo
o
oo
o
oo
oo
o
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
ooo
o
o
oooo
oo
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oo
o
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooooo
oo
o
o
oo
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooooo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
o
o
o
ooo
o
o
ooo
o
oo
o
o
o
ooo
ooo
oo
oo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oooo
oooo
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
ooo
ooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
oooo
o
o
o
ooo
oo
o
oo
o
oo
o
o
o
oo
o
o
ooo
ooooooo
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
ooooo
o
o
oo
o
ooo
o
o
ooo
o
o
oooo
o
o
oo
oooo
ooooo
oooo
oooo
oo
oo
oo
ooooo
o
ooooooooo
o
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0
5
10
15
x2
y
(b)
Fig. 15.8 (a) Fitted functions f(s)2(xi2) in (15.20) overlaid, with pointwise ±2 SE bands.
(b) Same as Fig. 15.7(b) except the quantiles (purple curves) are constrained to be parallel on
the η-scale (log scale here). The actual sample proportion lying below the curves are 36.4 and 78.4percent.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 112: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/112.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 15
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0
5
10
15
x2
y
(a)
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●● ●
●●●
●● ●
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
x2
y
(b)
Fig. 15.9 (a) Quantile plot from the onion method applied to some simulated Poisson data.
The quantiles are positive, nonparallel and noncrossing. Here, τ has values 0.2(0.1)0.9. (b) A
zoom-in view of the LHS of (a).
Then Fig. 15.9(a) was produced by
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 113: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/113.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 15
−4 −2 0 2 4
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.6 (a) Normal
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0 (b) Uniform
0 1 2 3 4 5
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0 (c) Exponential (d)
µ(ω = 0.1)
c1 c2
Fig. 15.10 (a)–(c) Density plots of expectile derived g (orange solid lines; (15.30)) for theoriginal f of standard normal, standard uniform and standard exponential distributions (blue
dashed lines). (d) Illustration of the interpretation of expectiles in terms of centres of balance,
the hollow triangles at positions c1 and c2. Here, the vertical dashed line is at the 0.1-expectile,the solid triangle at µ(ω = 0.1), which means that (15.33) is satisfied with ω = 0.1.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 114: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/114.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 15
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●●
●●
●
●●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●●●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●●●
●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
age
BM
I
Fig. 15.11 ‘Quantile’ plot from amlnormal() applied to women.eth0: 5, 25, 50, 75, 95 ‘percentile’
curves. Each regression curve is a regression spline with 3 degrees of freedom (1 = linear fit).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 115: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/115.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 15
●●
●
● ●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●● ●●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0
2
4
6
8
x2
jitte
r(y)
Fig. 15.12 Quantile plot from an amlpoisson() fit using simulated data. The dashed step
functions are the qpois() quantiles calibrated with the true mean function and the proportion
under the expectile curves. The response has been jitted to aid clarity.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 116: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/116.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 15
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
● ●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
● ●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
● ●●●
● ●
●●
●
●
●●●
● ●●●
● ●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
● ●●
● ●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●●●
●
●
● ●●●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
● ●●●
●
●
●●
●
● ●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
● ●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
● ●
●
●●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
● ●●●
●
●
●
●●
● ●●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●●●
●●
●
● ●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●
● ●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
● ●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●●●
●● ●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●●
●●
●
●● ●
●
●●
●●
● ●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
● ●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●●
● ●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
● ●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●●
●
●●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●●
●
● ●
●●
● ●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●●●●
● ●
●
●
●●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
10 20 30 40
10
20
30
40
Yesterday's Max Temperature
Toda
y's
Max
Tem
pera
ture
(a)
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
● ●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
● ●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
● ●●●
● ●
●●
●
●
●●●
● ●●●
● ●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
● ●●
● ●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●●●
●
●
● ●●●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
● ●●●
●
●
●●
●
● ●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
● ●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
● ●
●
●●
●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
● ●●●
●
●
●
●●
● ●●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
●●●
●●
●
● ●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●
● ●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
● ●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●●●
●● ●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●●
●●
●
●● ●
●
●●
●●
● ●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
● ●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●●
● ●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
● ●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
● ●● ●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
● ●●
●
●●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●●
●
● ●
●●
● ●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
● ●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●●
●●●●
● ●
●
●
●●
●●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
10 20 30 40
10
20
30
40
Yesterday's Max Temperature
Toda
y's
Max
Tem
pera
ture
(b)
Fig. 15.13 (a) Melbourne maximum temperature data, called melbmaxtemp, in ◦C. (b) Onion
method using amlnormal() expectiles applied to the data with an assortment of wj values. The
sample proportions below the curves are 1, 4.8, 20.2, 54.9, 65.2, 74.8, 82.7, 88.2, 91.7, 94.8 percent.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 117: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/117.jpg)
Chapter 16
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
111
![Page 118: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/118.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 16
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0ξ = −0.33
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0ξ = 0
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0ξ = 0.33
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4ξ = − 0.33ξ = 0ξ = 0.33
Fig. 16.1 GEV densities for values µ = 0, σ = 1, and ξ = − 13
, 0, 13
(Weibull-, Gumbel- andFrechet-types respectively). The orange curve is the CDF, the dashed purple segments divide the
density into areas of 110
. The bottom RHS plot has the densities overlaid.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 119: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/119.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 16
0 1 2 3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
ξ = −0.33
0 1 2 3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
ξ = 0
0 1 2 3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
ξ = 0.33
0 1 2 3
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
ξ = − 0.33ξ = 0ξ = 0.33
Fig. 16.2 GPD densities for values µ = 0, σ = 1, and ξ = − 13
, 0, 13
(beta-, exponential- andPareto-types, respectively). The orange curve is the CDF, the dashed purple segments divide the
density into areas of 110
. The bottom RHS plot has the densities overlaid.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 120: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/120.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 16
●
● ●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●● ●
● ● ●●
●
●
−1 0 1 2 3 4
80
100
120
140
160
180
Gumbel Plot
Reduced data
Obs
erve
d da
ta
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●● ●
● ● ●
●
●
●
−1 0 1 2 3 4
80
90
100
110
120
130
140Gumbel Plot
Reduced data
Obs
erve
d da
ta
Fig. 16.3 Gumbel plot of the two highest annual sea levels of the Venice data (venice).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 121: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/121.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 16
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
(a)
Year
Sea
leve
l (m
)
● ●●●●● ●●
●●●●●●●● ● ●●
●●●●
●●● ● ●●
● ●● ●●●●
●● ●●●● ●●●
●●●●● ●●
●●●●●
● ●●●●
●●●
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.00.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0(b)
Empirical
Mod
el●
● ●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●●●
●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●● ●
● ●● ●
● ●
●
3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6
3.6
3.8
4.0
4.2
4.4
4.6
(c)
Model
Em
piric
al
(d)
depvar(fit1.pp)
Den
sity
3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
0 2 4 6
4.0
4.5
5.0
(e)
Return Period (log−scale)
Ret
urn
Leve
l
●
● ●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●●●
●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
● ● ●
● ●● ●
● ●
●
5e−01 5e+00 5e+01 5e+02
4.0
4.5
5.0
(f)
Return Period
Ret
urn
Leve
l
●
● ●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●●●
●●●●
●●●●●
●●●●●
● ● ●
● ●● ●
● ●
●
Fig. 16.4 Intercept-only GEV model fitted to the portpirie annual maximum sea levelsdata. (a) Scatter plot, and the dashed horizontal lines are the resulting 95% and 99% quan-
tiles. (b) Probability plot. (c) Quantile plot. (d) Density plot. (e)–(f) Return level plots, with
slight changes in the x-axis labelling.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 122: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/122.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 16
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
−10
010
20
year
s(ye
ar, d
f = c
(9, 3
)):1
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
−0.
20.
00.
2
year
s(ye
ar, d
f = c
(9, 3
)):2
Fig. 16.5 VGAM fitted to the Venice sea level data (fit1).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 123: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/123.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 16
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
80
100
120
140
160
180
200(a)
year
Sea
leve
l (cm
)
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
80
100
120
140
160
180
200(b)
year
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●● ●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
● ●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
95%
99%
MPV
Fig. 16.6 (a) Quantile plot of the Venice sea level data (fit2). (b) Venice data overlaid with
the fitted values of fit3. This model underfits.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 124: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/124.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 16
4
4
44444
4444444444444
44444
444444444444
4444444444
4
4
4
4
1930 1950 1970
80
100
120
140
160
180
(a)
year
sea
leve
l
1
1
111
1
11
1111111
111
11
1
11111
111
1
11111
1
1111111
1
1111
1
11
1930 1950 1970
80
100
120
140
160
180
(b)
year
sea
leve
l
Fig. 16.7 (a) The fitted 99 percentile of fit2 and the 99 percentile data values (4th highest sealevel each year). (b) Fitted median predicted value (MPV) of the Venice sea level data from fit2.
The points are the highest sea levels for each year.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 125: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/125.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 16
●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●●●●●●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
0 5000 10000 15000
0
20
40
60
80
(a)
day
rain
0 20 40 60 80
0
5
10
15
20
(b)
Threshold
Mea
n E
xces
s
Fig. 16.8 The rain daily rainfall data. (a) Scatter plot. (b) Mean excess plot.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 126: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/126.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 16
●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●●●●●●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●●●●●
●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●
●●●
●
●●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●●
●●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●●
●
●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●●
●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●●●
●
●
●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●●
●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●●●●●
●
●●●●●
●
●
●●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●
●
●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●
●
●
●
●
●●
●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●
●●
●
●●●●
●●●
●
●●●●●●●●●●●●
0 5000 10000 15000
0
20
40
60
80
(a)
day
rain
●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●● ●●●●
●●●●●●●●
●●● ●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●
●●●●●●● ●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0(b)
Empirical
Mod
el●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●●●●●
●●●●●
●●●
●
●
●
●● ●
0 20 40 60
0
10
20
30
40
50
(c)
Model
Em
piric
al
(d)
depvar(fit2.rain)
Den
sity
30 40 50 60 70 80 900.
000.
040.
08
Fig. 16.9 Intercept-only GPD model fitted to the rain daily rainfall data. (a) Scatter plot,
with the solid black horizontal line denoting the threshold at 30. The dashed horizontal lines arethe resulting 90% and 99% quantiles. (b) Probability plot. (c) Quantile plot. (d) Density plot.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 127: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/127.jpg)
Chapter 17
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
121
![Page 128: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/128.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 17
*
(b)(a)
φ 1 − φ1 − ω
Y = Y =
Y
ω
Y | Y > 0* * 00
Fig. 17.1 Decision tree diagram for (a) zero-alteration versus (b) zero-inflation. They de-
pict (17.4) and (17.7) respectively. Here, Y ∗ corresponds to a parent distribution such as the
binomial or Poisson, and Y is the response of interest. The probabilities ω and φ dictate thedecisions.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 129: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/129.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 17
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
y
Pro
babi
lity
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20(a)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
y
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20(b)
Fig. 17.2 Probability functions of a (a) zero-inflated Poisson with φ = 0.2, (b) zero-deflated
Poisson with ω = −0.035. Both are compared to their parent distribution which is a Poisson(µ =3) in orange.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 130: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/130.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 17
5 10 15 20
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
weight
s(w
eigh
t, df
= 3
)
−0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0
−2
−1
0
1
2
Sex
part
ial f
or S
ex
−0.2 0.2 0.6 1.0
−3
−2
−1
0
1
2
Age
part
ial f
or A
ge
Fig. 17.3 Estimated component functions for the deermice VGAM.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 131: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/131.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 17
Fig. 17.4 Capture probability
estimates with approximate ±2pointwise SEs, versus wing length
with (blue) and without (or-
ange) fat content present fittinga Mh-VGAM, using the prinia
data.
−2 −1 0 1 2 3
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Wing length (standardized)
p
Fat presentFat not present
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 132: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/132.jpg)
![Page 133: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/133.jpg)
Appendix A
Figures from Vector Generalized Linearand Additive Models: With anImplementation in Rc© T. W. Yee, 2015
127
![Page 134: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/134.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 17
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
−14
00−
1200
−10
00−
800
µ
log−
likel
ihoo
d
●
θ
●
θ(1)
●
θ(2)
●
θ(3)
Fig. A.1 The first few Newton-like iterations for a Poisson regression fitted to the V1 data set.
The solid orange curve is `(θ) with θ = µ. The initial value is θ(1) = 0.2. Each iteration θ(a)
corresponds to the maximum of the quadratic (dashed curves) from the previous iteration.
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 135: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/135.jpg)
c© T. W. Yee, 2015. Chap. 17
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
−395
−390
−385
(a)
k
θ0 θ
Wald test
LR testScore test●
●
−395
−390
−385
(b)
k (log scale)
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9
θ0 θ
Wald test
LR testScore test●
●
Fig. A.2 Negative binomial NB(µ, k) distribution fitted to the machinists data set. The y-axis
is `. Let θ = k and θ∗ = log k. (a) `(θ) is the solid blue curve. (b) `(θ∗) is the solid blue curve.Note: for H0 : θ = θ0 (where θ0 = 1
3), the likelihood-ratio test, score test and Wald test statistics
are based on quantities highlighted with respect to `. In particular, the score statistic is based
on the tangent `′(θ0).
Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an Implementation in R
![Page 136: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/136.jpg)
![Page 137: Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With an](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062303/62a5efec61969821e93cd9b9/html5/thumbnails/137.jpg)
References
Yee, T. W. (2015). Vector Generalized Linear and Additive Models: With anImplementation in R. New York, USA: Springer.
131