van straten forecast - · pdf fileoworked backwards obrainstorm larger ... forecasting hurdle...
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A crystal ball for forecasting cellular sales
Margie van StratenAdrian Mattioli
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Sales PersonHigh level sales forecast
Breakdown per storeBreakdown per manufacturer & model
Historically
Led to …Led to …
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Historically (Cont.)
Procurement departmentAdding or subtracting margin to ensure “enough” handsets procured
This resulted in …Stock surplusStock shortage
of a particular handset model.
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Principle followed
Very basicCollecting dataAnalysing dataReporting upon data
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Collecting data
Source dataSource dataSource data
CSVCSV
Oracle
Eppix
PPAS
Access
ExcelExcelExcelExcelExcelExcelExcelExcel
SAS
ManualInput
ISIS
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Historical Reports
Stock in channel at
store
Black Box
Sales per channel
Stock in the warehouse
Stock order
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Historical Data Extraction
Ad-hoc manual processTime consuming to run (+- 10 hrs) Outdated before completeDuplication of dataManual intervention requiredNeed for daily update
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Solution to data & reporting problem
had to be a data warehouse
… a SAS data warehouse
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Why a data warehouse?
Single point of “Truth” = SPOTReporting more structuredUpdate data dailyCreate a production environment Reduce the load on production machines
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Why SAS?
Extensive in-house SAS experienceEstablished softwareEasy access to data from various engines and sourcesComfortable with productOngoing support available
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SAS’ Handset modeling solution
Identified most critical deliverableWhat quantity of which type of handset must be delivered when to whom?
Worked backwardsBrainstorm larger pictureFocused on a “bite size” phased project
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Information Architecture
F u tu re In fo m atio n Arch itec tu re to b e C o n s id ered
U N IXS erver
U N IXS erver
S Q L S erver
O R AC L EIS IS
O R AC L EIM P I (E P P IX)
C ontrac tsB illing
C h alleng erD atab ase
S ervice & R epa ir
U N IXS erver
U N IXS erver
V M SS erver
O R AC L E F inanc ia ls
A ccounts In foC ustom er In fo
P roduct In foP roduct T rack ing
IM E I (IB T )
O R AC L E
IM E IT In foP D W arehouse
U N IXD erver
N om inated S erverfor warehouse
O R AC L E
P re P a id cardin fo
AV M S
A c tiva tion In fo
C u rren t In fo m atio n Arch itec tu re a t Issu e
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Data Modeling
ID = Status ID
ID = Site ID
ID = Status ID
ID = Customer ID
ID = Parent Segment ID
ID = Segment ID
ID = Employee ID
ID = Position ID
ID = Customer Party ID
ID = Org PositionID
ID = Relationship Role
ID = Organisation Unit ID
ID = Type ID
ID = Child Org Unit IDID = Parent Org Unit ID
ID = Status ID
ID = Item ID
ID = Characteristic ID
ID = Item ID
ID = Category Set ID
Manufacturer ID = Manufacturer ID
ID = Address Role ID
ID = Item ID
Cell Number = Cell Number
Status Code = Status Code
ID = Site ID
ID = Address ID
ID = ID
ID = ID
ID = ID
ID = ID
Forecast Type = Forecast Type
Forecast ID = Forecast ID
ID = Item IDSerial Number = Quantity
Shipment ID = Shipment ID
Shipment Type = Shipment Type
ID = ID
ID = Product IDSerial Number = Serial Number
Activation Code = Activation Code
Type Code = Type Code
Order Number = Order Number
ID = Child Item ID
ID = Parent Item IDItem
ID NUMERICName CHAR(30)Introduction Date DATESales Discon Date DATESupport Discon Date DATEManufacturer ID NUMERIC
Item ComponentParent Item ID CHAR(10)Child Item ID CHAR(10)From Date DATETo Date DATEQuantity Used SMALLINT
ManufacturerManufacturer ID NUMERICName CHAR(30)Comments CHAR(30)
OrderOrder Number CHAR(10)Order Date DATEEntry Date DATEType Code CHAR(3)ID CHAR(10)Desired Date DATE
Order Type
Type Code CHAR(3)Description CHAR(30)
Order Line Item
Order Number CHAR(10)Line Sequence NUMERIC(2)ID CHAR(5)Miscellaneous Item ID CHAR(5)Quantity SMALLINTStatus Code CHAR(10)
Serialised Item
ID CHAR(5)Serial Number CHAR(5)Cell Number NUMERIC(10)
Stock Item Actication
Product ID CHAR(5)
Serial Number CHAR(10)Date DATETime TIMEActivation Code CHAR(3)
Activation TypeActivation Code CHAR(3)Description CHAR(30)
Cell NumberCell Number NUMERIC(10)
Shipment Line ItemShipment ID CHAR(10)Line Sequence SMALLINTItem ID CHAR(5)Quantity INTEGER
ShipmentShipment ID CHAR(10)Estimated Ship Date DATEActual Ship Date DATEEstimated Arr Date DATEActual Arr Date DATEShipment Type CHAR(3)
Shipment TypeShipment Type CHAR(3)Description CHAR(30)
Site
ID NUMERICName CHAR(30)Status ID NUMERICCustomer ID NUMERIC
Customer
ID NUMERICNumber CHAR(10)Name CHAR(30)Status ID NUMERIC
Forecast
Forecast ID CHAR(10)Forecast Date DATEID CHAR(10)Forecast Type CHAR(3)
Forecast Line Item
Forecast ID CHAR(10)
Sequence Number NUMERIC(2)ID CHAR(5)Quantity SMALLINTRequired Date DATE
Forecast TypeForecast Type CHARACTER(3)Description CHAR(30)
AddressID NUMERICAddress 1 CHAR(10)Address 2 CHAR(10)Address 3 CHAR(10)Address 4 CHAR(10)City CHAR(10)Postal Code NUMERIC(4)
Site AddressSite ID NUMERICAddress ID NUMERICOrganisation Unit ID NUMERICFrom Date DATETo Date DATEAddress Role ID NUMERICStatus ID NUMERIC
Address Role
ID NUMERICAddress Role Code CHAR(10)Description CHAR(30)
Order Status
Status Code CHAR(2)Description CHAR(30)
Serialised Item Cell Number
Item ID CHAR(10)Cell Number CHAR(10)Start Date DATEEnd Date DATE
Item Characteristic
Item ID NUMERICCharacteristic ID NUMERICFrom Date DATETo Date DATE
Characteritic
ID NUMERICDescription CHAR(20)
Category SetID NUMERICSet Name CHAR(30)
Item Category SetItem ID NUMERICCategory Set ID NUMERICFrom Date DATETo Date DATE
Site SegmentSegment ID NUMERICSite ID NUMERICFrom Date DATETo Date DATEComment CHAR(30)
StatusID NUMERICDescription CHAR(30)
Organisation PositionID NUMERICName CHAR(%n)Type ID NUMERIC
Organisation Position Type
ID NUMERICDescription CHAR(30)
Oranisation Structure
Parent Org Unit ID NUMERICChild Org Unit ID NUMERICFrom Date DATETo Date DATE
Org Unit Customer Relationship
Org PositionID NUMERICCustomer Party ID NUMERICFrom Date DATETo Date DATERelationship Role NUMERIC
Relationship Type
ID NUMERICDescription CHAR(30)
Employee
ID NUMERICEmp Number CHAR(10)Surname CHAR(30)First Name CHAR(20)Second Name CHAR(20)Third Name CHAR(30)National ID Number NUMERIC(13)
Employee PositionEmployee ID NUMERICPosition ID NUMERICFrom Date DATETo Date DATE
SegmentID NUMERICParent Segment ID NUMERICDescription CHAR(30)
Invoice
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Prepaid Handset Analysis
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
A c tua l Hands e ts Pred ic tiv e Model Sa les Fo rec as t
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Contract Handset Analysis
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
A c tual Hands ets S ales Forec as t P redic t ive M odel
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Hurdles
Large amounts of data to be reported upon
Sceptical project buy-in
Impatient colleagues
Sales forecast input format too rigid
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Forecasting hurdle
Excel Forecast Excel Forecast Excel Forecast
Staging
Data WarehouseData Warehouse
Web Data Capturing
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MTN Reporting Vision
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Summary
Collecting dataCreated SAS data warehouse
Analysing dataSAS Statistical Analysis Tools
Reporting upon dataWeb reporting
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Conclusion
Know our product and organization better
Know our supplier better
Know our customer better