validating the ghg production chain at multiple levels julia marshall (mpi-bgc), richard engelen...
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![Page 1: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Validating the GHG production chain at
multiple levels
Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC), Frédéric Chevallier (LSCE), Peter Rayner (LSCE), and various data
providers (referenced throughout)
![Page 2: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Data flow of the GHG system: CO2
Assimilation into
ECMWF system
Independent
retrievals (ANN)
4D-fields
Flux inversion system
Gridded flux fields
Biosphere
models
AIRS data
AIRS & IASI data
![Page 3: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Data flow of the GHG system: CO2
Assimilation into
ECMWF system
Independent
retrievals (ANN)
4D-fields
Flux inversion system
Gridded flux fields
Biosphere
models
AIRS data
AIRS & IASI data
![Page 4: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Data flow of the GHG system: CO2
Assimilation into
ECMWF system
Independent
retrievals (ANN)
4D-fields
Flux inversion system
Gridded flux fields
Other satellite data
(e.g. SCIAMACHY)
Surface-based
measurements
Flux towers
Biosphere
models
AIRS data
AIRS & IASI data
![Page 5: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
4D IFS CO2 fields
independent AIRS CO2
retrievals
gridded flux fields
Flux towers
biosphere model
AIRS data IASI data
IASI CO2
retrievals
SCIAMACHY data
SCIAMACHY CO2
retrievals
independent 4D CO2
fieldssurface-informed
gridded flux fields
surface-based
measurements
prior-informed 4D LMDZ CO2
fields
![Page 6: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
4D IFS CH4 fields
gridded flux fields
IASI data
IASI CH4
retrievals
SCIAMACHY data
independent SCIAMACHY
CH4
retrievals surface-based
measurements
optimized 4D TM5 CH4
fields
![Page 7: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Data flow of the GHG system: CO2
Assimilation into
ECMWF system
Independent
retrievals (ANN)
4D-fields
Flux inversion system
Gridded flux fields
Surface-based
measurements
Flux towers
Biosphere
models
Surface-based
assimilation and
inversion systems
(e.g. CarbonTra
cker)
Other satellite data
(e.g. SCIAMACHY)
AIRS data
AIRS & IASI data
![Page 9: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Data flow of the GHG system: CO2
Assimilation into
ECMWF system
Independent
retrievals (ANN)
4D-fields
Flux inversion system
Gridded flux fields
Surface-based
measurements
Flux towers
Biosphere
models
Surface-based
assimilation and
inversion systems
(e.g. CarbonTra
cker)
Other satellite data
(e.g. SCIAMACHY)
AIRS data
AIRS & IASI data
![Page 10: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
A note on the models considered here
• All data are matched to the gridbox matching the altitude of the measurement, and linearly interpolated in time
Model name
Grid resolution
Timestep
IFS assimilated
1x1 degree 6hr
IFS free-run (CASA fluxes)
1x1 degree 6hr
TM3 4D fields
4x5 degree 6hr
CarbonTracker
4x6 degree 3hr
![Page 11: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Surface-based measurement network
• For the purposes here, this includes surface stations, ship-based measurements, aircraft data, and ground-based remote sensing (i.e. FTIR)
• 179 datasets considered at present
![Page 12: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Some metrics to be considered:
• Based on VAL scoring document:– Modified normalized mean bias:
– Fractional gross error:
– Correlation coefficient:
• Visualization with Taylor diagrams
![Page 13: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
A brief note on Taylor diagrams
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
![Page 14: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
A brief note on Taylor diagrams
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
![Page 15: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
A brief note on Taylor diagrams
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
![Page 16: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
A brief note on Taylor diagrams
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
![Page 17: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
A brief note on Taylor diagrams
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
![Page 18: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
A brief note on Taylor diagrams
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
![Page 19: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Some results from validation with station data• Most stations
show reasonable agreement
• Standard deviation tends to be somewhat high, but scattered
![Page 20: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Correlation coefficients
• Remote stations generally show good agreement
• Poor correlation over highly variable regions, such as Europe
![Page 21: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Comparison for MNM Bias ( )
• Similar pattern of disagreement, showing up to a 10% positive bias over Europe
• Southern hemisphere well-constrained, slightly positive tendency in northern hemisphere
![Page 22: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Fractional Gross Error ( )
• Similar pattern of disagreement, showing up to a 10% fractional error
• Again, low error in remote regions
![Page 23: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
A view of the errors in time and space
![Page 24: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
A view of the errors in time and space
NH summer
![Page 25: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
A view of the errors in time and space
NH summer
Increasing with time
![Page 26: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Comparison to surface-data constrained assimilation systems:
• CarbonTracker and TM3 are not always independent
• Correlation better, but standard deviation consistently low
![Page 27: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Comparison with CarbonTracker: considering subset of 99 independent data sets
• More similar results when comparing only independent stations
![Page 28: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Comparison with CarbonTracker: considering only independent flight data
• Yet more comparable when looking at only flight data
![Page 29: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Comparison with free run, i.e. the effect of the satellite data (aircraft data only)
• Improvement in variability of the model, if not correlation coefficients
![Page 30: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
A look at the total column results:
• Northern hemisphere bias seen at Park Falls, but seasonal cycle reproduced well
• Poor agreement with Darwin
R=-.33RMSE=3.6
ppm
R=0.91RMSE=5.9
ppm
![Page 31: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Some conclusions:
• IFS 4D fields compare well with remote observations
• Positive bias and higher error seen over highly populated regions with heterogeneous fluxes
• Slight northern-hemisphere high bias, seems related to too weak seasonal cycle
• Trend shows some divergence over time• Performance when considering non-surface
data is comparable to that of an inversion system using only surface-based data
![Page 32: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Other activities:• Further comparisons carried out
with CO2 flux output
• Comparison to independent satellite retrievals
• Similar work done for methane validation, which will be briefly discussed in the VAL session tomorrow morning
![Page 33: Validating the GHG production chain at multiple levels Julia Marshall (MPI-BGC), Richard Engelen (ECMWF), Cyril Crevoisier (LMD), Peter Bergamaschi (JRC),](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062304/56649f095503460f94c1dfe1/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Data sources:• WMO Global Atmosphere Watch data • CarboEurope IP concentration
measurements, including flights, tall towers, and flasks
• NOAA ESRL tall towers and routine flight data
• flight data over Siberia from Machida et al.• Darwin FTIR:Deutscher et al., (in preparation) • Park Falls FTIR: Washenfelder et al., 2006• CarbonTracker 2008 results provided by
NOAA ESRL, Boulder, Colorado, USA from the website at http://carbontracker.noaa.gov.
• TM3 4D fields: from Christian Rödenbeck