JPK

Gro

upBusiness Forecasting and Analytics Forum

March 1-2 • San Francisco, CA

Utilizing Predictive Analytics toIdentify Business Drivers for Growth

Predict trends, understand customers, improve business

performance, drive strategic decision-making, and predict behavior

March 2, 1:00pm

View presentation online at:

https://jpkgroupsummits.com/attendee1

Prashant Gupta – Cisco

Prashant Gupta is a senior data scientist and have been working in Silicon valleyfor 16 years. He is well known for his abilities to find patterns in the toughest of

data and generating revenue from data.

Utilizing Predictive Analytics to Identify

Business Drivers for Growth

Prashant Gupta

Principal Data Scientist

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Quick Intro

• Data Scientist having fun in Silicon Valley for last 17 years

• Worked on interesting projects - Apple, Cisco, HP, Informatica, OOCL

• Recently had paper published in ISM ( Institute of Supply Management )

• Created “profitable” and “successful” small businesses in bay area

• Run a non-profit 501©(3) for cultivating entrepreneurship in kids

• Advisor to startup’s

• Currently working @ Cisco – Central Planning Supply Chain

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Maximize

Profits

Minimize Business Expense

How many of us truly understand factors impacting our business and to what degree ?

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Sales• customer demographics • store location• weather

Customer• age • occupation • family status• income level • gender

Expenses• Prices of raw materials• Labor wage rates • Facility rental rates

Finance Marketing Time Competition

3/1/2016Anthony Tarantino, PhD, Six Sigma Master Black Belt, CPIM, CPM

LinkedIn Profile: https://www.linkedin.com/pub/anthony-tarantino-phd/1/40a/808 Email: agtarantino@hotmaiil.com

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Visual Correlation analysis of inter-dependencies in various supply chain elements. This correlation graph shows cause and effect relationships between elements with wide variations in their levels of interdependence.

Blue = Greater Positive Correlation

Red = Greater Negative Correlation

Let’s start with – Understanding business without Bias & Ego

1. Data sources

• Transactional data ( What they buy )

• Support experience data ( What products they have issues with )

• Demographic data ( General data about their lives )

2. Building dataset

• Feel and understand the data

• Maintain good excellent data quality

3. Building / Testing / Refining models.

• No single model is good enough

• Iteratively increasing model accuracy

Household Income (Income; rounded to the nearest $1,000.00)

Gender (IsFemale = 1 if the person is female, 0 otherwise)

Marital Status (IsMarried = 1 if married, 0 otherwise)

College Educated (HasCollege = 1 if has one or more years of college education, 0 otherwise)

Employed in a Profession (IsProfessional = 1 if employed in a profession, 0 otherwise)

How does our customer look like ?

Actual database attributes

1. amex_gold2. amex_regular3. discover_gold4. discover_regular5. gas_or_retail_gold6. gas_or_retail_regular7. mastercard_gold8. mastercard_regular9. visa_gold10. visa_regular11. investment_active12. dollars_computing_home13. business_owner14. single_parent15. occup_detail_input16. buy_chan_propens_inet17. buy_chan_propens_mail18. buy_chan_propens_phone19. business_owner_input20. apparel_general_sc21. appliances_sc22. electronics_sc23. gifts_holiday_sc24. children_products_sc25. lifestyles_sc26. online_ordr_amt_avg27. other_merchandise_sc28. pets_sc29. sports_and_leisure_sc30. telecommunications_sc31. entertainment_sc32. value_priced_sc33. new_parent34. child_near_hs_grad35. college_grad_life_evnt36. empty_nest_life_event37. newlywed38. new_mover

2000 +

Defining business strategy

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Looks too complex for my business

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Case Study: Tino IQ

Result speak for themselvesPeople trust in them more to identify stocks being manipulated

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Case Study: UBER

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Learnings from case studies

Financial Predictions and Consumer transportations are some of the most complex business around

They involve all areas of growth we discussed:

Sales Customer Expenses Finance Marketing Time Competition

If these companies can succeed. Why not your business ???

Future Best Practices

The next generation business will build on today’s best practices by:

More deeply understanding the business

Utilizing advanced modeling tools & techniques

Moving to hybrid-cloud-based platforms

Creating centers of excellence (CoE) to champion change management and best practices

Data driving action rather than action driving data.

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Thanks

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