utah's age waves and their potential consequences: public ... · immigration and migration...

1

Utah’s Age Waves and Their Potential Consequences: Public & Higher Education

Utah Education Deans’ ColloquiumDecember 14, 2006Pamela S. Perlich, Ph.D.Bureau of Economic & Business ResearchUniversity of Utah

Overview

Population TrendsRegional population trendsBirth cycles and their effect on age structureImmigration and migration patternsIncreasing cultural and ethnic diversity

Utah Higher Education TrendsDeclining participationIncreasing attainmentUnder representation of women and minorities

Population Trends Higher Education Trends

Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006

2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mill

ions

of P

erso

ns

South West Midwest Northeast

U.S. Population by Region: 1900-2030

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.

• About 2/3 of the national growth from 1900 to 2000 occurred in the South and West.• Nearly 90% of the national growth from 2000 to 2030 is projected to occur in the South and West.

• West + South > 50% National Population by 1980.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Mill

ions

of

Pers

ons

Arizona

Colorado

Nevada

Utah

New Mexico

Idaho

Montana

Wyoming

Population in the Intermountain West: 1900 - 2030

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 1995; 2000; 2005.

Between 2000 and 2030, populations of Arizona and Nevada:

Will double.

Will generate 48% (AZ) and 20% (NV) growth in Mountain Division


3

Utah and U.S. Annual Births: 1940-2006

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Utah

Birt

hs (t

hous

ands

)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

US B

irths

(mill

ions

)

UtahUS

Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee and the National Center for Health Statistics.

U.S. Baby Boom

(1946-1964)

U.S. Echo Boom

42-60 years old 30-41 years old Ages 29 and younger

U.S. Baby Bust

1965-1976


Utah and U.S. Annual Births: 1940-2006

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Utah

Birt

hs (t

hous

ands

)

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5U

S B

irth

s (m

illio

ns)

UtahUS

U.S. Boom Peak: 1957

Utah Boom Peak: 1962

Utah Echo Peak: 1980-2

Utah Echo EchoPeak: 2012??

U.S. Echo Peak: 1990



4

Utah: Components of Population Change

-25,000

-15,000

-5,000

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

45,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Net In-MigrationNatural Increase

Sources: Utah Population Estimates Committee, revised 12/2006.

Utah Echo Peak: 1980-2

Utah Boom Peak: 1962


300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Total Births 5-17 Yrs AgoFall School Enrollment

Sources: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics; Utah Population Estimates Committee.

Note: Births are fiscal year (July 1) births and enrollment is fall enrollment, revised 12/2006.

2011: Cumulative Births from 1993 through 2006

Utah Fall School Enrollment &Births 5-17 Years Prior


5

Utah & U.S. Annual Births: 5-17 Years Prior

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007

Utah

Birt

hs (t

hous

ands

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

US B

irth

s (m

illio

ns)

UtahUS

U.S. Peak: 1969

U.S. Peak: 2006

U.S. Trough: 1984

Utah Peak: 1969

Utah Peak: 1994

Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population EstimatesCommittee and the National Center for Health Statistics.

Utah Trough: 2001

Utah Trough: 1975


300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

High Economic Growth and Fertility2002 BaselineLow Economic Growth and Fertility2005 GOPB Baseline

Sources: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002; GOPB 2005 Baseline Projections.

Utah School Age Population: Historical & Projected


6

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

AmountsRates

School Age Population

Boom: 2006-2018

when Increases> 10,000 per year

Annual Amounts and Rates of Change in the Utah School Age Population

Source: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002.


16,075

9,776

14,330

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

School Age PopulationFall School Enrollment

School Age Population

Boom: 2006-2018

when Increases> 10,000 per year

Annual Increase in Enrollment Approached 10,000 in 2004 & Exceeded in 2005 & 2006:

The Boom is Well Underway

Sources: Patricia Murphy, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics; and Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006

7

Utah & U.S. Annual Births: 18 Years Prior

10

20

30

40

50

60

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Utah

Birt

hs (t

hous

ands

)

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

US B

irth

s (m

illio

ns)

UtahUS

U.S. Peak: 1979

U.S. Peak: 2008

U.S. Trough: 1991

Utah Peak: 1980

Utah Peak: 2000



Utah & U.S. Annual Births:18-24 Years Prior

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1964 1974 1984 1994 2004 2014 2024

Utah

Birt

hs (t

hous

ands

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

US

Bir

ths

(mill

ions

)

UtahUS

U.S. Peak: 1980

U.S. Peak: 2013

U.S. Trough: 1996

Utah Peak: 1981

Utah Peak: 2002



8

Utah Population 18-24 Years Old: Historical & Projected

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

18-24: High Economic Growth, High Fertility18-24: Baseline 18-24: Low Economic Growth, Low Fertility Cumulative Births 18-24 years priorBureau of Census 2005GOPB 2005

Source: Perlich and Reeve, “The Coming Boom in Utah’s School Age and College Age Populations,” Utah Economic and Business Review, 2002. BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee.

Age wave hits college age 2016 - 2025


Annual Change in Utah Employment and Utah Births 18-24 Years Prior

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ann

ual C

hang

e in

Job

s

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Uta

h B

irth

s 18

-24

Yea

rs P

rior

(000

)

Annual Change in JobsBirths 18-24 Years Prior

Source: BEBR analysis of data from the Utah Population Estimates Committee and the Utah Department of Workforce Services. Note: Jobs are nonfarm wage and salary employment.


9



10

Region-to-Region Migration: 1995-2000, (Thousands)


Net Domestic Migration and Movers from Abroad: Population Over 5 Years Old - 1995 to 2000

-1,500,000

-500,000

500,000

1,500,000

2,500,000

3,500,000

4,500,000Internal Net

Movers from Abroad

Internal Net + Movers from Abroad

Internal Net -1,270,658 -541,189 1,799,799 12,048 767,584Movers from Abroad 1,567,331 1,057,870 2,615,279 2,255,366 847,708Internal Net + Movers from Abroad 296,673 516,681 4,415,078 2,267,414 1,615,292

Northeast Midwest South West West Minus CA

Source: Berker and Faber 2003. Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006

11

Net Domestic Migration and Movers from Abroad: Population Over 5 Years Old - 1995 to 2000

-50,000

50,000

150,000

250,000

350,000

450,000 Internal Net

Movers from Abroad

Internal Net + Movers from Abroad

Internal Net 316,148 162,633 33,847 -5,166 233,934 -29,945 25,296 -12,527

Movers from Abroad 182,982 134,715 20,966 6,884 75,212 38,706 64,663 5,237

Internal Net + Movers from Abroad 499,130 297,348 54,813 1,718 309,146 8,761 89,959 -7,290

Arizona Colorado Idaho Montana Nevada New Mexico

Utah Wyoming

Source: Berker and Faber 2003. Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006


12



13


Utah Foreign Born Population: 1850 – 2005

18%

32%

35%

19%18%

13%

4% 4% 3% 4% 3%

8%6%10%

31%

26%

7%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

Fore

ign

Bor

n Sh

are

of T

otal

Pop

ulat

ion

0

50

100

150

200

Num

ber o

f For

eign

Bor

n (T

hous

ands

)

Undocumented in 2005 =

85 k to 100 k

Sources: Bureau of the Census (decennial census and ACS), Immigration and Naturalization Service, BEBR Calculations.


202,528

14

Minority Share of the Population: Utah & US, 1850-2010

0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.7% 1.9%

5.5%7.6% 8.8%

14.7%17%

20%

15.7%14.4%

12.9%13.5%12.5%12.1%11.1%10.3%10.2%10.2%10.5%11.4%

16.8%

20.4%

24.4%

30.9%33%

36%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010

Utah US

Sources: Bureau of the Census, Gibson and Jung (2002), Perlich (2002)

Note: Prior to 1970, minority is non-White. For 1970 and beyond, minority is non-White (may be Hispanic or non-Hispanic) plus Hispanic (may be of any race). Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006

Annual Increments in Fall Enrollment: White and Minority Populations

5,5682,897

5933,781

7,1994,863 5,429

3,4384,170

5,995

7,131

96

(6,000)

(3,000)

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

1999-2000 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2004-05 2005-06

MinorityWhite

Sources: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics, 12/2006.Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006

15

White Non-Hispanic

30%

Minority (All

Others)70%

Utah School Enrollment Increase: 2000 -2006

Enrollment Growth from 2000 to 2006:

Total: 50,406

Minority: 35,424

Source: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics.Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006

Not Hispanic

48%

Hispanic52%

Utah School Enrollment Increase: 2000 -2006

Enrollment Growth from 2000 to 2006:

Total: 50,406

Hispanic: 25,999

Source: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics.Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006

16

Utah Minority Shares: Population and Students

17%

17%

18%

20%

16%15%

14%

17%16%

16%

15%15%15%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Fall EnrollmentUtah Population

Source: Randy Raphael, Utah State Office of Education, Finance and Statistics; and Population Estimates Program, U.S. Bureau of the Census. Original release date: 8/2006 Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006

Share of 18 through 24 Year Olds Attending CollegeUtah & US – 1990 & 2000

40.2%

36.6%34.4% 34.0%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1990 2000

Utah US

Source: Bureau of Business and Economic Research, University of Utah – Analysis of Bureau of the Census, 1990 Census of the Population, Social and Economic Characteristics: 1990 CP-2-24 and CP-1 Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006

17

Share of 18 - 24 Year Olds Attending College –Male and Female (1990)

40.2% 40.9%39.6%

34.4%32.7%

36.0%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Total Male Female

Utah US

Source: Bureau of Census, 1990 Census of the Population, CP2-1, CP2-24.


Utah Share of 18 - 24 Year Olds Attending College by Sex and Nativity (2000)

36.9% 38.2

%

23.3%

35.2% 36.9

%

20.0%

38.6%

39.4%

27.6%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Total Native Born Foreign Born

Total Male Female

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006

18

Utah Share of 18 - 24 Year Olds Attending College by Race and Ethnicity (2000)

39.3%

28.4%

18.7%

58.1%

28.6%35.6%

13.4% 10.9%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

White alonenot Hispanic

Black orAfrican

Americanalone notHispanic

AmericanIndian and

AlaskaNative alonenot Hispanic

Asian alonenot Hispanic

NativeHawaiianand Other

PacificIslanderalone notHispanic

Two ormore races

not Hispanic

Hispanic orLatino (ofany race)

Mexican


Educational Attainment: 25 Years & Older

High School Graduate or Greater

75.2%

85.1%87.7%

80.4%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

1990 2000

US Utah

College Graduate or Greater

20.3%22.3%

26.1%24.4%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1990 2000

US Utah

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah – Analysis of Bureau of the Census data Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006

19

Educational Attainment by Sex for Persons 25 Years & Older (2000)

High School Graduate or Greater

87.3% 88.1%

80.1% 80.7%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

Males Females

US Utah

College Graduate or Greater

30.0%

26.1%

22.8%22.3%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Males Females

US Utah

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Utah – Analysis of Bureau of the Census data Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006

Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Males 25 Years and Older (2000)

45.5%

54.5%

18.2%

24.9%

75.1%

27.8%

37.9%

62.1%

21.7%

89.8%

30.5%

10.2%12.8%

87.2%

29.7%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Less than HighSchool

High School orGreater

College Graduateor Greater

TotalNative BornForeign BornNaturalizedNot a Citizen

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, 5% PUMS


20

Utah Educational Attainment by Nativity: Females 25 Years and Older (2000)

39.7%

60.3%

21.2%

22.1%

77.9%

21.0%

32.8%

67.2%

21.1%

90.1%

22.0%

9.9%11.9%

88.1%

21.9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Less than HighSchool

High School orGreater

College Graduateor Greater

TotalNative BornForeign BornNaturalizedNot a Citizen


Share of Utah Population 25 Years & Older with at Least High School Completion – Minority Status (2000)

74%

86%

55%48%

80%

59%52%

82%

69%

84%91%

84%78%

69%

83%91%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Whitealone notHispanic

Blackalone notHispanic

AmericanIndian and

AlaskaNative

alone notHispanic

Asianalone notHispanic


PacificIslander

alone notHispanic

Two ormore races

notHispanic


Mexican

MaleFemale

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, SF4 Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006

21

Share of Utah Population 25 Years & Older with a Bachelors or Greater – Minority Status (2000)

13%

28%

10% 8%12% 10%

7%

41%

9%

20%

32%

22%

33%

8%

21%23%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

Whitealone not

Hispanic orLatino

Blackalone notHispanic

AmericanIndian and

AlaskaNative

alone notHispanic or

Latino

Asianalone not

Hispanic orLatino


PacificIslander

alone notHispanic

Two ormore races

notHispanic


Mexican

MaleFemale

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research - Analysis of Census 2000, SF4 Perlich, BEBR U of U, 12/2006

Regional Population ShiftsWest and South drive national population growthCalifornia exports population domestically and imports it internationallyArizona and Nevada are the new growth engines of the westUtah has become increasingly dependent upon international migration to maintain positive net in-migration

Domestic net-migration has turned positive in the 2005 estimates – economic expansion


22

Age Wave Trends

School age population boom Is exceeding expectations because of unanticipated immigration and high internal growth of these new populations.Will continue for at least the next ten years.

18-24 year old population Is projected to grow very slowly (at best) for at least the next decade.Is the pipeline to college and the labor force.Is highly mobile.


Utah Women

Attend college at rates that exceed the nation, particularly the native born.Complete degrees at rates that are slightly below those of their national counterparts.Have the highest fertility rates in the nation.


23

Utah College Participation Rates

Are declining for the 18-24 populationExplained in part by immigration to Utah

Labor market drivenLower educational attainmentChildren are less likely to complete high school

Participation rates vary by minority statusHighest: Asians followed by white non-HispanicsLowest: Hispanics and American Indians


Utah Educational Attainment

Exceeds the nation, but varies widely by nativity, sex, and racial / ethnic group

Non-citizen immigrants - very low attainment Males - concentrated at the lowest and highest Females - concentrated in the middle Highest - Asians then white non-Hispanics, multi-race non-Hispanics, African Americans and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders Lowest - Native American and Hispanics (including Mexicans)


24

Hispanics

Utah’s largest minority groupRapidly growing – immigration and internal growth

Very high fertility at young agesLow educational attainmentHigh drop-out ratesLow median income – less able to leave labor force and complete education


Perlich, UofU

Bottom LineUtah will remain relatively young, compared to the nation, but, like the nation, it is aging.The school age population boom is well under way and exceeding projections. With a flat 18 to 24 year old demographic for the next decade, declining college participation rates, and an increasing number of retirees, Utah faces declines in the number of newly college educated persons. This impacts the quality and quantity of the Utah labor force and the competitiveness of the state. Utah is becoming more diverse – culturally and ethnically

Immigration and high fertility rates of immigrants rapid growthGlobalization will continue to be a force

With changing population, conventional approaches based on the “old Utah” no longer fit the new realities.

utah's age waves and their potential consequences: public ... · immigration and migration...

Documents