users flood early waring in the lower mekong basin manithaphone mahaxay
TRANSCRIPT
UsersUsers
FLOOD EARLY WARING IN FLOOD EARLY WARING IN THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN
Manithaphone Mahaxay Manithaphone Mahaxay
FMMP – FMMP – the the first important step first important step inin preventing, preventing, minimizingminimizing and and mitigatingmitigating people’s people’s losses dlosses due to ue to floods…floods…
FMMPFMMP is is specific and feasible, specific and feasible, based on a comprehensive based on a comprehensive assessment of countriesassessment of countries’’ needs needs and and MRC’s mandateMRC’s mandate. .
Synergies with existing regional Synergies with existing regional disaster management disaster management mechanisms/initiativesmechanisms/initiatives
The Flood Management & The Flood Management & Mitigation Programme Mitigation Programme
By having advance warning and By having advance warning and tools, the tools, the people people most affected most affected by floods will be well-by floods will be well-prepared prepared for them.for them.
The Basin peopleThe Basin peopless are are the ultimate stakeholderthe ultimate stakeholderss and recipientand recipientss of of FMMP FMMP products and services products and services
MRC and related line agencies MRC and related line agencies will will implement the implement the FMM Strategy in a well-coordinated approachFMM Strategy in a well-coordinated approach
Benefits of FMMP
1. Regional FMM 1. Regional FMM centrecentre
5. Land Use management5. Land Use management
4. Flood Emergency Mngmt4. Flood Emergency Mngmt
3. Trans-boundary mediation3. Trans-boundary mediation
2. Structural Measures &2. Structural Measures &Flood ProofingFlood Proofing
Components of Flood Management Components of Flood Management and Mitigation Programand Mitigation Program
Capacity BuildingCapacity Building(Training Unit)(Training Unit)
Data Collection Data Collection & Processing& Processing
Forecasting, Forecasting, Warning & Warning & DisseminationDissemination
Annual Flood Forum, Annual Flood Forum, Workshops, Workshops, CommunicationsCommunications
FMMPFMMP
Existing Flood Forecasting & Existing Flood Forecasting & Early Warning at MRC Early Warning at MRC
Established since 1971Established since 1971 Using mathematical models (SSARR Using mathematical models (SSARR
and regression)and regression) Five-day flood forecast from mid June to Five-day flood forecast from mid June to
October for more 20 locations along the October for more 20 locations along the mainstream, based on daily data from 37 mainstream, based on daily data from 37 hydrologic and 22 rainfall stationshydrologic and 22 rainfall stations
Flood Forecasting & River Flood Forecasting & River Monitoring CalendarMonitoring Calendar
01 Nov. – 15 01 Nov. – 15 Jun.Jun.
16 Jun. – 31 16 Jun. – 31 Oct.Oct.
River MonitoringRiver Monitoring Flood ForecastingFlood Forecasting
Weekly forecastWeekly forecast Daily forecastDaily forecast
““Make information travel faster Make information travel faster than flood waters”than flood waters”
““Make information travel faster Make information travel faster than flood waters”than flood waters”
Use:• Technology• Cooperation
Flood Forecasting & Warning
Heavy rain/snowmelt or high inflow
Data collection and transmission
Boundary estimation (rainfall, tide, ..)
Forecast calculation
Warning dissemination
Emergency action
Flooding starts
tim
e
Meteorological forecast
Min
imis
em
axim
ise
Provide accurate Provide accurate forecasts with a forecasts with a suitable suitable lead time; lead time; and a timely and and a timely and effective effective disseminationdissemination
Flood Forecasting & Early Flood Forecasting & Early WarningWarning
Data collection,Analysis, Provision
of Forecasts
Hydrological Stations
Web site, bulletin, e-mail, fax, radio, telephone, etc.
Dissemination
Through Partner Networks
www.mrcmekong.orgwww.mrcmekong.org
Others maps can be found at main MRC Website
River InformationFlood Forecast
Map centreMap centre
Topographic mapTopographic map Land use mapLand use map Max. flood extend mapMax. flood extend map
Three different scales or extends. 50 x 50, 100 x 100 and 200 x 200 Km of map coverage
Different types of maps providing at MRC Website
MRC FLOOD FORECASTING MAPSMRC FLOOD FORECASTING MAPS
Types: depth and extent of flood (50 by 50 km and 100 by 100 km )Times: current date and next day-5 flood situations
Estimate of actual rainfall Estimate of actual rainfall based on satellite imagery, based on satellite imagery, corrected with readings corrected with readings from gauging stations of from gauging stations of the GTS networkthe GTS network
USGS made rainfall data USGS made rainfall data accessible to the MRC by accessible to the MRC by providing it on their FTP providing it on their FTP site where it can be site where it can be downloaded on daily basisdownloaded on daily basis
Imageries were converted Imageries were converted into a GIS-grid data format, into a GIS-grid data format, then plot a rainfall then plot a rainfall distribution map and distribution map and calculate statistic of calculate statistic of rainfall of each sub-basinrainfall of each sub-basin
NOAA DATANOAA DATA
MM5 (Fifth Generation Mesoscale Model operated by the
US Air Force) gives three, 24-hourly forecasts of rainfall
for consecutive days
MM5 FORECAST DATA
Rainfall Statistic Calculation Using GISRainfall Statistic Calculation Using GIS
The satellite rainfall data is then transformed into graphic format The satellite rainfall data is then transformed into graphic format using GIS, using GIS, calculated and summarized based on each calculated and summarized based on each sub-catchment, exports to dbf file and uploaded to the web sitesub-catchment, exports to dbf file and uploaded to the web site
Observed Rainfall from TRMMObserved Rainfall from TRMM
• NASA is providing the near real-time observed NASA is providing the near real-time observed precipitation by satellite precipitation by satellite TTropical ropical RRain ain MMeasuring easuring MMission ission (TRMM) of every 3 hours(TRMM) of every 3 hours
• The TRMM data of the last 24 hours is being downloaded The TRMM data of the last 24 hours is being downloaded through NASA ftp at MRC Secretariat on daily basisthrough NASA ftp at MRC Secretariat on daily basis
• Similar to NOAA data, this TRMM image files are Similar to NOAA data, this TRMM image files are converted to grid for further statistical rainfall calculation converted to grid for further statistical rainfall calculation in dbf format of every six hours of the last 24 hours in dbf format of every six hours of the last 24 hours (0-6, 6-12, 12-18, 18-24, and 0-24 O’clock of GMT)(0-6, 6-12, 12-18, 18-24, and 0-24 O’clock of GMT)
TRMM data generated from every three-hours observed data to every six-hours
The observed TRMM data can be available at MRC Secretariat The observed TRMM data can be available at MRC Secretariat of every morning of next dayof every morning of next day
Why Community Flood Why Community Flood Forecasts/Warnings?Forecasts/Warnings?
• Forecasting is on the Forecasting is on the mainstream onlymainstream only
When will my village/rice field be flooded?
Will my children be in danger ?
Flood Flood Forecasts/Warnings Forecasts/Warnings
at the community levelat the community level
Flood IFlood Information Flow from MRC nformation Flow from MRC to Communities to Communities through its Partnersthrough its Partners
MRC forecastsMRC forecasts
Vulnerable Communities
Vulnerable Communities
NMCs NMCs Line Agencies
Line Agencies
Red Cross/IFRC
Red Cross/IFRC
IOsIOs CSOsCSOs
Weak Link
Weak Link
PartneringPartnering• American Red Cross / American Red Cross /
Cambodian Red Cross Cambodian Red Cross had been identified as had been identified as Implementing PartnersImplementing Partners
CRC has an extensive CRC has an extensive networks (National-networks (National-Community level) and know-Community level) and know-how on CBDPhow on CBDP
Community participationCommunity participation
FM installation & leveling – conducted FM installation & leveling – conducted
Lowest spots at the villages – identifiedLowest spots at the villages – identified
Flood mark installation Flood mark installation
Flood plain Mekong RiverVillage profile
Village Profile
Flood Early WarningFlood Early Warning
Mekong river
Flood Plains
Village Profile
Flood Early WarningFlood Early Warning
Mekong river
Flood Plains
Village Profile
Flood Early WarningFlood Early Warning
Mekong river
Flood Plains
Information flowInformation flowMRCS/ RFMC
American Red Cross+
12:00 hrs
Field Personnel
14:00 hrs
14:30 hrs
CRC HQ
Community Community FeedbacksFeedbacksMRCS/
RFMC
American Red Cross+
17:00 hrs
Field Personnel
15:00 hrs
CRC HQ
Community BillboardCommunity BillboardFlood Level Information Table
VillagePopulationArea
Warning Level 1
Warning Level 2
Warning Level 3
Day Month Year
Yesterday
Today
Tomorrow
After Tomorrow
Water Level at NL st. (meter)
Water Level at Vil. (meter)
Flooded area (ha)
Community Flood forecasts are made and disseminated
Community Flood Community Flood Forecasting/MappingForecasting/Mapping
Community Flood maps are being developed
UsersUsers
THANK YOU THANK YOU VERY MUCHVERY MUCH