user conference 11/14/13 forgotten oil & gas study john d. grace earth science associates long...
TRANSCRIPT
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User Conference 11/14/13
Forgotten Oil & Gas Study
John D. GraceEarth Science Associates
Long Beach, CA
2013 User ConferenceHosted by Maersk – Houston
November 14, 2013
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Goals
• High-grade opportunities for new production from “dead” reservoirs
• Develop methods for mass-batch decline curve analysis
• Identify “non-balancing” movements in field & sand reserve estimates
• Demonstrate “data mining” approach to analysis using GOM3
User Conference 11/14/13
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Decline Curve Study
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Pro
duct
ion
Rat
e
Number of Months On
Last Production Date
Estimated Current Abandonment Rate
Production
Estimated RemainingRecoverable Volume
Statistically EstimatedDecline Rate
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Total Volumes & Uncertainty
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0100
12
9
6
3
0
200300400500
Gas (Tcf) Oil (Million Bbls)
Both oil and gas scaled in BOE
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Size/Frequency Reservoir Recoverable Volume
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0 10 500 20 MMCF
3 BCF
95 BCF
MCF
0
1
2
3
4
Fre
q. (
x 1,
000)
0 10 500 20 MBbls
3 MM Bbls
Bbls
0
500
1,00
01,
500
Fre
q.
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Largest Reservoirs Found
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61 2 43 5
2
6
8
12
10
4
0
Remaining Oil (Million Bbls)
Res
ervo
irs
10 20 40 6030 50 70
20
40
0
10
30
Remaining Gas (Bcf)
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Where Was 2012 Production?
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Where is the Forgotten Oil & Gas?
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Cost Proxies
User Conference 11/14/13 Dot Size Proportional to Remaining BOE
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Revenue Proxies - Oil
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Revenue Proxies - Gas
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Decline Methodology
• Studied reservoirs “dead” at end 2009– Applied GOM3 Decline Curve Tool in batch– Process data to find final “regime break” – Apply 4 standard engineering models
• Corrected bias in exponential estimates• Retained confidence intervals for estimates• Picked best model with R2 (R2 0.6)
– Determined “current” abandonment rate
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Break in Structural Regime
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Global Prod. Max Break in
Regime
RegimeEstimated
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Standard Decline Models
• Exponential rate v time:
• Linear rate v cumulative prod:
• Hyperbolic rate v time:
• If exponential; harmonic; hyperbolic
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ˆˆˆ bty ceˆˆy a bx
0ˆ
0
ˆˆ
ˆ( )1
ˆ
a
qy
b t t
a
a ˆ 1a ˆ1 a
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Models Tried: Picked Best Above Threshold
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This reservoir does not pass the R2>0.6 criteria
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Example: WC49 Field: L04 Sand
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L04 Sand
L-8 & L-4NM reservoirs (12,919-13,134)Very low & strange production
A and PA-3 reservoirs (13,406-14,308).Comps produced 27 & 28 bcf respectively 6 Bcf
Remaining
371 MMcf Remaining
?
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Where’s the Potential in WC49?
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Plus: Dead but Not Declining
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Look Where Reserves Do Not Balance
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Found in Reserve Histories
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6 BBL
4 BBL
34 TCF18 TCF
5 BBL3.6 BBL
17 TCF 32 TCF
Fields Sands
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Next steps
• Get input from these presentations
• Complete analysis of Reserve Histories
• Final revisions to numbers & software
• Produce deliverables
• Decide on marketing strategy
User Conference 11/14/13