u.s. department of the interior u.s. geological survey southeastern natural resources leadership...
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U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Southeastern Natural Southeastern Natural Resources Leadership GroupResources Leadership Group
Regional Climate Change MeetingRegional Climate Change Meeting
Charleston, South CarolinaCharleston, South CarolinaMay 27 – 29, 2008May 27 – 29, 2008
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What role can USGS play?
Knowledge acquisition – research and monitoringMitigation - policiesAdaptation - actions
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“Climate change undermines a basic assumption that historically has facilitated management of water supplies, demands, and risks.”
Research
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Monitoring
WaterWatch Map of real-time streamflow compared to historical streamflow for the day of the year
Drought WatchMap of below normal 7-day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow for the day of the year
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Monitoring
Phenology http://www.usanpn.org/ NBII http://www.nbii.gov/portal/server.pt Invasive species http://nas.er.usgs.gov/ NWIS http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis
WaterWatch http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/ DroughtWatch http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/?
m=pa07d_dry&r=us&w=real%2Cmap
Climate Effects Network - future
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Dauphin Island, Alabama
August 31, 2005
September 17, 2004
July 17, 2001
Hurricane Ivan
Hurricane Katrina
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Salinities circa 1900Salinities circa 1900
Northern Transition Zoneand Central Florida Bay – euryhaline
Northern Transition Zoneand Central Florida Bay – euryhaline
Central Biscayne Bay– polyhaline and euhaline
Central Biscayne Bay– polyhaline and euhaline
Card Bank – euryhalineand polyhaline
Card Bank – euryhalineand polyhaline
Central Biscayne Bay– euryhaline, polyhaline,and euhaline
Central Biscayne Bay– euryhaline, polyhaline,and euhaline
Whitewater Bay – mix of fresh, euryhaline and oligohaline
Whitewater Bay – mix of fresh, euryhaline and oligohaline
Northern Transition Zone – mix of fresh, euryhaline and oligohaline
Northern Transition Zone – mix of fresh, euryhaline and oligohaline
Last 100 years in Florida Bay – loss of typical estuarine zonation and a loss of biodiversityLast 100 years in Biscayne Bay – a shift of zones into the estuary as environments become increasingly marine
Central Florida Bay and Card Bank – euryhaline andpolyhaline
Central Florida Bay and Card Bank – euryhaline andpolyhaline
Modern salinitiesModern salinities
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Setting Attainable Restoration Setting Attainable Restoration Performance Measures: Accounting Performance Measures: Accounting for Global Change in Sea-Level for Global Change in Sea-Level RiseRise
Salinity (ppt)
Cal
enda
r Y
ears
AD
Freshwater Marine
Orange line represents Orange line represents hypothetical salinity data hypothetical salinity data derived from analyses of derived from analyses of sediment coressediment cores
From 1000 AD to From 1000 AD to approximately 1900 AD approximately 1900 AD data show gradual data show gradual increase in salinity that increase in salinity that might occur during sea might occur during sea level riselevel rise
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Salinity (ppt)
Cal
enda
r Y
ears
AD
Freshwater Marine
Blue line highlights the Blue line highlights the trend in increasing salinity trend in increasing salinity due to rising sea leveldue to rising sea level
Gray area represents the Gray area represents the offset from the natural offset from the natural trend – can assume this trend – can assume this is probably an is probably an anthropogenic effectanthropogenic effect
Naturaltrendline offset Setting Attainable Restoration Setting Attainable Restoration
Performance Measures: Accounting Performance Measures: Accounting for Global Change in Sea-Level Risefor Global Change in Sea-Level Rise
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Setting Attainable Restoration Setting Attainable Restoration Performance MeasuresPerformance Measures
Salinity (ppt)
Cal
enda
r Y
ears
AD
Freshwater Marine
Naturaltrendline
offset
Performance measures that set targets at pre-1900 salinities may not be attainable because sea level rise and other factors would make it difficult to return to this salinity range
Performance measures that set targets at pre-1900 salinities may not be attainable because sea level rise and other factors would make it difficult to return to this salinity range
Performance measures that set targets at an intersect point along the trend line of natural salinity increase will be realistic and attainable
Performance measures that set targets at an intersect point along the trend line of natural salinity increase will be realistic and attainable
Restoration
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Paleoecology
Collect sediment cores from array ofsubenvironments throughout the greater Everglades ecosystem:
Tree islandsSawgrass ridgesSloughsSawgrass marshesCattail marshesMarl prairiesMangroves
Conduct pollen analyses, establish age models, and timing and patternsof vegetational change.
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Willard et al. (2001)
Vegetation Trends During Last 2,000 Years,Dwarf Mangrove Stand, Site MC1 Near Florida Bay
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Holocene Climate and Environmental History
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Stream Impoundment Water Withdrawal
Aquatic Biota
Channel Condition,
Connectivity
Historic land use, channel modification
Water quality: temperature, DO,
contaminants
Runoff/Wastewater discharge
Population processes:Persistence ReproductionColonization
Land Cover Dynamics
Base flowsLarge floodsHigh-flow
pulsesSmall floods
Extreme lowflows
Approach: Relate hydrologic alteration to population processes, in context of geomorphology, land cover, climate change…climate change