us army: pusa-brief

8/14/2019 US Army: pusa-brief

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/us-army-pusa-brief 1/28

1

PROTEUS PROTEUS NEW CONCEPTS FOR A NEW NEW CONCEPTS FOR A NEW

AGE AGE

“ “ Creative Strategic Intelligence Analysis and Creative Strategic Intelligence Analysis and

Decision Making within the Elements of Decision Making within the Elements of National Power National Power ” ”

http://http://www.carlisle.army.mil/proteuswww.carlisle.army.mil/proteus



2

Proteus USAProteus USA

““We're entering an age of acceleration. The modelsWe're entering an age of acceleration. The modelsunderlying society at every level, which are largely based onunderlying society at every level, which are largely based ona linear model of change, are going to have to be redefined.a linear model of change, are going to have to be redefined.Because of the explosive power of exponential growth, theBecause of the explosive power of exponential growth, the

21st century will be equivalent to 20,000 years of progress at21st century will be equivalent to 20,000 years of progress attoday's rate of progress; organizations have to be able totoday's rate of progress; organizations have to be able toredefine themselves at a faster and faster pace.redefine themselves at a faster and faster pace.””

The FutureThe Future

“ “ The goal of The goal of “ “ futuring futuring ” ” is not to predict the future but to is not to predict the future but to improve it. We want to anticipate possible or likely future improve it. We want to anticipate possible or likely future conditions so that we can prepare for them. We especially conditions so that we can prepare for them. We especially want to know about opportunities and risks that we should want to know about opportunities and risks that we should

be ready for.be ready for. ” ”

ForesightForesight

— — RayRay KurzweilKurzweil 20032003

----Ed CornishEd Cornish ““FuturingFuturing: Exploration of the Future: Exploration of the Future””--

Complexity ChallengeComplexity Challenge

““

What we think of as design is based on hidden patterns, onceWhat we think of as design is based on hidden patterns, onceunderstood we will be able to achieve the desired effect.understood we will be able to achieve the desired effect.””

— — Telecommunications Systems EngineerTelecommunications Systems Engineer



3

History of ProteusHistory of Proteus

19991999--2002: National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) initiated a2002: National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) init iated astudy to examine the future geostudy to examine the future geo--strategic landscape and itsstrategic landscape and itscharacteristics out to 2020.characteristics out to 2020.

Experts in U.S. Government/DOD, Private Sector and AcademiaExperts in U.S. Government/DOD, Private Sector and Academiateamed with TASC and developedteamed with TASC and developed:: Five futur istic world scenarios and gathered information and knoFive futur istic world scenarios and gathered information and knowledgewledge

on the future complex environment, actors and relationships outon the future complex environment, actors and relationships out to 2020.to 2020.

Observed the Importance of how to think versus what to think inObserved the Importance of how to think versus what to think in solvingsolving

future complex issues.future complex issues.20032003 – – 2004: International Consortium (US & Canada) formed to2004: International Consortium (US & Canada) formed tostudy and collaborate on the practical application of Proteusstudy and collaborate on the practical application of Proteusinsights:insights:

In future strategic intelligence, decision making and technologyIn future strategic intelligence, decision making and technology effortsefforts To better understand and deal with future ambiguity and uncertaTo better understand and deal with future ambiguity and uncertaintyinty

2005: Proteus Canada followed by Proteus USA (U.S.+ Canada2005: Proteus Canada followed by Proteus USA (U.S.+ Canada))Sponsored by the NIU, ODNI and CSL, USAWCSponsored by the NIU, ODNI and CSL, USAWC



5

The Future EnvironmentThe Future Environment

Original Proteus InsightsOriginal Proteus Insights

Starlight:Starlight: “ “ Foresight and Uncertainty Management Foresight and Uncertainty Management ” ”

•• TodayToday’’s technologies and methods to focus on seeing events yet tos technologies and methods to focus on seeing events yet tooccur versus strictly on events, which have already occurred .occur versus strictly on events, which have already occurred .

Sanctuary:Sanctuary: “ “ They They Can Can Run and They Run and They Can Can Hide Hide ” ”

•• The ability to hide origins, discrete events, and broad trends dThe ability to hide origins, discrete events, and broad trends d espiteespiteever ever --increasing globalization and worldwide connectivityincreasing globalization and worldwide connectivity

Sweat the Small Stuff:Sweat the Small Stuff: “ “ Cyber Beings, Biotech, Nanotech Cyber Beings, Biotech, Nanotech ” ”

•• The doubleThe double--edged sword nature of cyber technology, biotechnology,edged sword nature of cyber technology, biotechnology,and nanotechnology; macroand nanotechnology; macro --effects wi ll result in new threats andeffects wi ll result in new threats andopportunitiesopportunities

Veracity:Veracity: “ “ The Challenge of Truth and Knowledge The Challenge of Truth and Knowledge ” ”

•• In a future of complex, interconnected global networks where theIn a future of complex, interconnected global networks where thespeed, pace, and rate of change challenges the importance of speed, pace, and rate of change challenges the importance of ““ truthtruth””

Power:Power: “ “ The Secret of Cortez The Secret of Cortez ’ ’ s Gold s Gold ” ”

•• If our focus is only on the instruments of power instead of theIf our focus is only on the instruments of power instead of the valuesvalues

from which they spring, we risk strategic surprisefrom which they spring, we risk strategic surprise

( ( “ “ Proteus; Insights from 2020,Proteus; Insights from 2020,” ” pages 15 pages 15 - - 81)81)



6

Original Proteus InsightsOriginal Proteus Insights

Wealth:Wealth: “ “ Its Not Just Money Its Not Just Money ” ”

•• We need to understand the flows of nonWe need to understand the flows of non --traditional currencies (traditional currencies (e.g.,e.g.,knowledge, safety, health, genes, personal networks, etc.)knowledge, safety, health, genes, personal networks, etc.)

Herds:Herds: “ “ People and Ideas on the Move People and Ideas on the Move ” ” •• The nature of people and groups (their ideas, beliefs, loyaltiesThe nature of people and groups (their ideas, beliefs, loyalties,,

and affini ties) is complex and dynamicand affini ties) is complex and dynamic

Parallel Universe:Parallel Universe: “ “ From Networks to Cyber Life From Networks to Cyber Life ” ”

•• Cyberspace becomes less a communications network and more a paraCyberspace becomes less a communications network and more a parallellleluniverse coexisting and influencing every aspect of the physicaluniverse coexisting and influencing every aspect of the physical worldworld

Bedfellows:Bedfellows: “ “ The Significance of Teaming The Significance of Teaming ” ”

•• The need for organizational agil ityThe need for organizational agil ity – – new partners, new customers, newnew partners, new customers, newrelationships, and new appreciation for the speed, rate and pacerelationships, and new appreciation for the speed, rate and pace of of changechange

Threat:Threat: “ “ The Obverse of Opportunity The Obverse of Opportunity ” ”

•• The Proteus Study groups had a propensity to findThe Proteus Study groups had a propensity to find – – or even createor even create – –traditional threats. In doing this, they tended to either misstraditional threats. In doing this, they tended to either miss or or

misconstrue the nonmisconstrue the non--traditional threatstraditional threats – – and the correspondingand the correspondingopportunitiesopportunities – – in all of the venues in all of the venues ..


( ( “ “ Proteus; Insights from 2020,Proteus; Insights from 2020,” ” pages 15 pages 15 - - 81)81)

Th F E i



7

“ PlacesPlaces”” where friendly, hostile, or neutral actors seek towhere friendly, hostile, or neutral actors seek toinfluence others (influence others (similar to the Information Age Warfare Domains)similar to the Information Age Warfare Domains)

Terrestrial:Terrestrial: The classic military and geoThe classic military and geo--political domains of political domains of land, air, sea as well as the physical concentrations of land, air, sea as well as the physical concentrations of wealth (e.g., sea lanes, oil fields)wealth (e.g., sea lanes, oil fields)

Space:Space: The domain of satellites and future space platformsThe domain of satellites and future space platforms

SpectralSpectral : The electromagnetic spectrum where EW,: The electromagnetic spectrum where EW,bandwidth, frequency management, and sensing occur bandwidth, frequency management, and sensing occur

Virtual:Virtual: The global world of networks and connectivityThe global world of networks and connectivity

Psychological:Psychological: The media and info conduits used toThe media and info conduits used toinfluence the hearts and minds of peopleinfluence the hearts and minds of people

Original Planes of influencesOriginal Planes of influences


( ( “ “ Proteus; Insights from 2020,Proteus; Insights from 2020,” ” page 19)page 19)



8

Five ScenariosFive Scenarios

Amazon Plague Amazon Plague:: A A world wracked by highly contagious, deadlyworld wracked by highly contagious, deadlyviruses that flare up, die, then return in mutated form. Tradeviruses that flare up, die, then return in mutated form. Trade hashasdried up and global economy is in a serious, longdried up and global economy is in a serious, long--term recession.term recession.

The Enemy WithinThe Enemy Within :: The US has quite dramatically unraveled.The US has quite dramatically unraveled.Ethnic tensions and singleEthnic tensions and single--issue politics haveissue politics have torn the social fabrictorn the social fabric ..Racial and inter Racial and inter --generational strife, compounded by recordgenerational strife, compounded by recordunemployment, tears apart society. USG in never ending cris is.unemployment, tears apart society. USG in never ending cris is.

Militant ShangriMilitant Shangri --lala:: A world of unexpected events and diff icult A world of unexpected events and diff icult

--toto

--trace villains. Thetrace villains. The

world is influenced by theworld is influenced by the ““ Alliance of the Southern Constellation, Alliance of the Southern Constellation, ”” nations considerednations consideredpariahs by the West. The All iancepariahs by the West. The All iance’’s strategy is to keep the world on the edge of chaos.s strategy is to keep the world on the edge of chaos.

New CamelotNew Camelot:: The world enjoys economic growth, international stability, technThe world enjoys economic growth, international stability, technologicalologicalprogress, and the fruits of an energy breakthrough that promisesprogress, and the fruits of an energy breakthrough that promises cheap fuel and a cleancheap fuel and a clean

environment. The US is no longer dominant militarily or economienvironment. The US is no longer dominant militarily or economically, but no one cares.cally, but no one cares.

Yankee Going HomeYankee Going Home:: The US withdraws from the world after a series of foreign policyThe US withdraws from the world after a series of foreign policyblunders and a deep recession. The world is experiencing chaos.blunders and a deep recession. The world is experiencing chaos. The world is now controlledThe world is now controlledby both traditional and nontraditional actors who compete for poby both traditional and nontraditional actors who compete for position and control.sition and control.



9

The Nature of Blindness in IntelligenceThe Nature of Blindness in Intelligence

Know Thyself; Know Thy EnemyKnow Thyself; Know Thy Enemy

During the Proteus Study, the workgroup participants had aDuring the Proteus Study, the workgroup participants had apropensity to findpropensity to find——or even createor even create——traditional threats. Intraditional threats. Indoing this, they tended to miss or misconstrue thedoing this, they tended to miss or misconstrue the

nontraditional threats. Observations from the study :nontraditional threats. Observations from the study : When theWhen the problem problem ——the background forces for changethe background forces for change——is clear is clear

and theand the threat threat is c lear,is c lear, the group is comfortable but moves onlythe group is comfortable but moves only

slightly out of the box. (slightly out of the box. ( Amazon & New Camelot Amazon & New Camelot ))

When theWhen the problem problem is clear and theis clear and the threat threat is ambiguousis ambiguous, the, thegroup is uncomfortable, but engages in innovative thinking.group is uncomfortable, but engages in innovative thinking.

((Militant ShangriMilitant Shangri --la & Yankee Going Homela & Yankee Going Home))

When theWhen the problem problem and theand the threat threat are ambiguous,are ambiguous, there is a high level of there is a high level of

discomfort and a tendency to default to the box. (discomfort and a tendency to default to the box. (New Camelot + YankeeNew Camelot + YankeeGoing HomeGoing Home))

When theWhen the problem problem is ambiguous and theis ambiguous and the threat threat is c lear is clear , debates about the mission, debates about the mission

ensue. (ensue. (The Enemy WithinThe Enemy Within ))

P USAP t USA



10


Proteus USA is an international consortium andProteus USA is an international consortium and ““ think tankthink tank”” thatthatpromotes further promotes further discourse, study, and researchdiscourse, study, and research , focusing on the, focusing on therefinement , development, andrefinement , development, and application of new and emergingapplication of new and emerging““ futuresfutures”” concepts, methods, processes, and scenariosconcepts, methods, processes, and scenarios that will:that will : Assist strategic and high Assist strategic and high --operational level decision makers, planners,operational level decision makers, planners,

and analysts inand analysts in ““ outside the boxoutside the box”” consideration and critical analysis of consideration and crit ical analysis of National military and intelligence issues within the Joint, InteNational military and intelligence issues within the Joint, Interagency,ragency,Intergovernmental, and Multinational (JIIM) environment by encouIntergovernmental, and Multinational (JIIM) environment by encou ragingraging

them to:them to: Consider differing values and perceptionsConsider differing values and perceptions of future target audiences byof future target audiences by

systematically lookingsystematically looking ““ outsideoutside”” of the values contained in Western Civi lizationof the values contained in Western Civil izationwhen considering the application of all elements of national powwhen considering the application of all elements of national power (Diplomatic,er (Diplomatic,Informational, Military, and Economic).Informational, Military, and Economic).

Frame complex issues holisticallyFrame complex issues hol istically, to identify and consider the 2, to identify and consider the 2ndnd and 3and 3rdrd order order effects and unintended consequences of pol icy and strategy deciseffects and unintended consequences of policy and strategy decisions.ions.

Scan the horizon and define the future environmentScan the horizon and define the future environment and scenarios toand scenarios tosystematically identify discrete threats and capitalize on hiddesystematically identify discrete threats and capitalize on hiddennopportunitiesopportunities

Charter and ObjectivesCharter and Objectives

SAP USA



11


Educational Exercises/Experiential LearningEducational Exercises/Experiential Learning . Learning role playing,. Learning role playing,games, and simulations that either require user/student input ingames, and simulations that either require user/student input in thethesimulationsimulation ,, course workcourse work , hypothetical case studies/scenarios that, hypothetical case studies/scenarios thatholistically frame and examine complex national and global isholistically frame and examine complex national and global issuessues

Analysis and Decision Support Analysis and Decision Support . Applicability of advance concepts. Applicability of advance conceptsthat deal with future complexity and uncertainty in strategic athat deal with future complexity and uncertainty in strategic andndoperational analysis and decisionoperational analysis and decision--making; i.e. decisionmaking; i.e. decision--makingmaking

toolkits, expert agents, models and/or simulation and a futuretoolkits, expert agents, models and/or simulation and a future““ Proteus Gaming.Proteus Gaming.””

PublicationPublication. Proteus related publications in experiential learning. Proteus related publications in experiential learningand decision and analytical support tools using new and emergingand decision and analytical support tools using new and emerging

concepts and processes and technologiesconcepts and processes and technologies

Future ResearchFuture Research. Study into new concepts and processes and work. Study into new concepts and processes and workon future Proteus related applications in solving future complexon future Proteus related applications in solving future complexgeogeo--strategic problems.strategic problems.

Exploring the Possibilit iesExploring the Possibilit ies

F i l FF ti l F



12

Functional FocusFunctional Focus

•• Strategic and Operational IntelligenceStrategic and Operational Intelligence•• Interagency Planning and DecisionInteragency Planning and Decision--making Processesmaking Processes

•• Joint Forces planning and decision making (Adaptive andJoint Forces planning and decision making (Adaptive and

Contingency Planning across the range of militaryContingency Planning across the range of military

operations)operations)

•• Strategic Communications and Public DiplomacyStrategic Communications and Public Diplomacy

•• Information Operations: Civil Military Affairs, PsychologicalInformation Operations: Civil Military Affairs, Psychological

OperationsOperations

Strategic and High Operational LevelStrategic and High Operational Level

Analysts, Planners and Decision MakersAnalysts, Planners and Decision Makers““How to think about Future Complexity and UncertaintyHow to think about Future Complexity and Uncertainty ““

#1#1

New Concept, Processes, Methods,New Concept, Processes, Methods,# 2# 2

F Gl b l E i



13

Future Global EnvironmentFuture Global Environment

Characteristics, Threats and OpportunitiesCharacteristics, Threats and Opportunities

Lower

Irregular

Challenges arising from theadoption or employment ofunconventional methods by

non-state and state actors tocounter stronger stateopponents—terrorism,insurgency, civil war, etc.

Catastrophic

Challenges involving thesurreptitious acquisition,possession, and possible

terrorist or rogue employmentof WMD or methods producingWMD-like effects.

Traditional

Challenges posed largely by statesemploying legacy and advanced

military capabilities andrecognizable military forces, in long-established, well-known forms ofmilitary competition and conflict.

Disruptive

Future challenges emanating fromcompetitors developing, possessing,

and employing breakthroughtechnological capabilities intendedto supplant our advantages inparticular operational domains.

V U

L N E R A B I L I T Y

LIKELIHOOD

Higher

Higher Lower

StrategyStrategy

Joint Concepts/Joint Concepts/

Capability AreasCapability Areas

Studies,Studies,Simulations,Simulations,

GamingGaming

TransformationTransformation

IntelligenceIntelligence

•Critical and Creative thinkingAcross the domains or Planesof Influence to identify:

•Discrete TemporalRelationships/Patterns•Complex characteristics•Threats/Opportunities

ProteusProteus

I lli d P li kiI lli d P li ki

http://av.rds.yahoo.com/_ylt=A9ibyKNWQoNDJnMArXtvCqMX;_ylu=X3oDMTBvMmFkM29rBHBndANhdl9pbWdfcmVzdWx0BHNlYwNzcg--/SIG=12288d6rj/EXP=1132762070/**http%3a//www.studentlabware.com/microscopes.html



14

Executive Steering GroupsExecutive Steering Groups

Intelligence and Policy makingIntelligence and Policy making

Strategic Context: National Security Policy and StrategyStrategic Context: National Security Policy and Strategy

NationalNational

SecuritySecurity

PoliciesPolicies

Policy CoordinationPolicy Coordination

Committees (Committees (PCCsPCCs))

PrincipalsPrincipals

Committee (PC)Committee (PC)

Decision on Issue Becomes: National Security Policy

Deputies Committee (DC)Deputies Committee (DC)

Deputies Discussion on Issue Interagency Discussion on Issue

DEPNSC ADVISOR

DEPSEC STATE

DEPSEC DEF DEPDNI

DEPSEC HLS

VCJCS

STATE OSD NSC

STAFF JOINT STAFF

HLS

DNI SECSTATE

SECDEF NSC

ADVISOR

CJCS

SECHLS

DNI

5 Interagency interrelatedlevels of policy:

•Articulation•Budgeting•Implementation

•Post Implementation

PresidentPresident

•Conceptualization

**Other executive depts, agencies, as required

PCCsPCCs: 24 Functional, 6 Regional: 24 Functional, 6 Regional

DIME/MIDLIFEDIME/MIDLIFE

•Critical and Creative thinkingAcross the domains or Planes

of Influence to identify:•Discrete TemporalRelationships/Patterns•Complex characteristics•Threats/Opportunities

ProteusProteus

I t lli d D i i kiI t lli d D i i ki




15

ProteusProteus

Intelligence and Decision makingIntelligence and Decision making

PMESII System Behavior Models

Political/Religious

RegularMilitary

Social/Culture

IrregularMilitary

Economic/Infrastructure

Information

Operational Level:Operational Level:

Effects Based Operations (EBO), Operational NetEffects Based Operations (EBO), Operational Net Assessment (ONA) & Collaborative Information Assessment (ONA) & Collaborative Information

Environment (CIE)Environment (CIE)

CDR

Staff

Components

Others

EffectEffect--BasedBased ““DynamicDynamic””

Planning and OperationsPlanning and Operations

““DIME ActionsDIME Actions””

Operational Net AssessmentOperational Net Assessment

CIECIE

JIIM Coordination: DIJIIM Coordination: DIMMEE

““PMSIIPMSII EffectsEffects””PP -- PoliticalPolitical

MM -- MilitaryMilitary

EE -- EconomicsEconomics

SS --SocialSocialII -- InfrastructureInfrastructure

II --InformationInformation

•Critical and Creative thinking

Across the domains or Planesof Influence to identify:•Discrete TemporalRelationships/Patterns•Complex characteristics•Threats/Opportunities

Th F t Ch llThe Future Challenge




16

The Future ChallengeThe Future Challenge

2020 and Beyond ?2020 and Beyond ?

••RenaissanceRenaissance

••Multi disciplinedMulti disciplined

••TheoristTheorist

••Technician /TechniquesTechnician /Techniques

••Critical & CreativeCritical & Creative••Thinker, intuitionThinker, intuition

••FuturistFuturist

Who understand Future Complexity and Complex AdaptiveWho understand Future Complexity and Complex Adaptive

Systems, their relationships and interdependencies in order to:Systems, their relationships and interdependencies in order to:

Develop dynamic integrated intelligence estimates, policies anDevelop dynamic integrated intelligence estimates, policies andd

plans that can actively adapt to the constant and emergent,plans that can actively adapt to the constant and emergent,

expediential change over time, prevent unintended consequences.expediential change over time, prevent unintended consequences.

••Mid to SeniorMid to Senior

Level:Level:

••AnalystAnalyst

••PlannerPlanner

••Decision makerDecision maker

Milit iasMilit ias

Global PandemicGlobal Pandemic

Emerging PeersEmerging Peers

Failed S ta tesFailed S ta tes

WMD proli fera tion WMD proli fera tion

RadicalismRadicalism

Economic Compe ti tionEconomic Compe ti tion

International organized crimeInternational organized crime

Narco /Agro terror

Narco /Agro terror

Global Insurgenc yGlobal Insurgenc y

Humani tarian Disas ters

Humani tarian Disas ters

Mass Migra tionMass Migra tion World Demographic Changes

World Demographic Changes

Super Empo wered Indi vidualsSuper Empo wered Indi viduals

Bio terrorBio terror

Technology ConvergenceTechnology ConvergenceGl o b al izat io nGl o b al izat io n

“ “ Pr iv at e Milit ar y Or ganizat ionsPr iv at e Milit ar y Or ganizat ions

C yber war fareC yber war fare

Global In fo GridGlobal In fo Grid

Energ y Shor tage /Al terna ti vesEnerg y Shor tage /Al terna ti ves

20202020 -- 20302030 – – 20502050 -- ??ComplexityComplexity UncertaintyUncertainty

““To operate in an uncertainTo operate in an uncertainworld, people need to beworld, people need to be

able toable to reperceivereperceive — —toto

question their assumptionsquestion their assumptions

about the way the worldabout the way the world

works, so that they can seeworks, so that they can seethe world more clearly.the world more clearly.””

Peter SchwartzPeter Schwartz

P t USAProte s USA



17

•• Intelligence Futures Curricula Development :Intelligence Futures Curricula Development : Senior Analyst oriented,Senior Analyst oriented,

focused on Future Complexity and Uncertaintyfocused on Future Complexity and Uncertainty

•• Research and Publication:Research and Publication: Proteus Monographs Series FellowsProteus Monographs Series Fellows

Program (Program (PMSFPPMSFP), Proteus Writing Excellent Award (), Proteus Writing Excellent Award (PWEAPWEA), Articles and), Articles and

Papers Books: Workshop Proceedings and Anthology,Papers Books: Workshop Proceedings and Anthology, ““Proteus RevisitedProteus Revisited””

•• Proteus USA Website:Proteus USA Website: Papers, Articles, Monographs, Studies, link,Papers, Articles, Monographs, Studies, link,

announcements and events. Moving toward aannouncements and events. Moving toward a ““fully collaborativefully collaborative”” sitesite

•• Complexity Gaming and Role Play Simulations:Complexity Gaming and Role Play Simulations: Protean Media CriticalProtean Media CriticalThinking Game Improvements and theThinking Game Improvements and the ““Complexity Gaming EnterpriseComplexity Gaming Enterprise””


Proteus USA Init iatives HighlightsProteus USA Init iatives Highlights



I t lli F t C i lIntelligence Futures Curriculum



19

Intelligence Futures CurriculumIntelligence Futures Curriculum

Critical ThinkingCritical Thinking

Designed to strengthen criticalDesigned to strengthen critical--thinking skills forthinking skills for

analyzing and evaluating complex issues. Students willanalyzing and evaluating complex issues. Students willapply methods learned in a variety of cases/scenarios.apply methods learned in a variety of cases/scenarios.

•• Parts and standards of thinkingParts and standards of thinking

•• Inferences, Probability, and BiasesInferences, Probability, and Biases

•• Fallacious ReasoningFallacious Reasoning

•• Critical Thinking Exercise: Case Study/Scenario,Critical Thinking Exercise: Case Study/Scenario,

Protean MediaProtean Media




20


Analytic TechniquesAnalytic Techniques

Introduces senior analysts to several analytic methodsIntroduces senior analysts to several analytic methods

and techniques for analyzing threats and opportunities,and techniques for analyzing threats and opportunities,and discusses methods to focus analysis withoutand discusses methods to focus analysis without

skewing results towards a desired conclusion.skewing results towards a desired conclusion.

•• Key Problems with AnalysisKey Problems with Analysis•• Profiling International Change ProcessesProfiling International Change Processes

•• Effects Based ThinkingEffects Based Thinking

•• Data MiningData Mining

In t e l l igenc e Fut ures Curr ic u lumInt e l l igenc e Fut ures Curr ic u lum



21

In t e l l igenc e Fut ures Curr ic u lumInt e l l igenc e Fut ures Curr ic u lum

ForecastingForecasting

Introduces several methods of forecasting future eventsIntroduces several methods of forecasting future events

and situations, to better prepare analysts to deal withand situations, to better prepare analysts to deal withambiguity in the contemporary operating environment.ambiguity in the contemporary operating environment.

•• Forecasting PrinciplesForecasting Principles

•• Forecasting MethodsForecasting Methods

•• Gaining Acceptance of ForecastsGaining Acceptance of Forecasts

•• Maintaining CurrencyMaintaining Currency




22

Introduces and summarizes the main concepts involvedIntroduces and summarizes the main concepts involved

and techniques associated with futures studies.and techniques associated with futures studies.

Focuses on how to think about the future during timesFocuses on how to think about the future during timesof increasingly rapid change.of increasingly rapid change.

•• Technology Revolutions andTechnology Revolutions and

SupertrendsSupertrends•• ““53 Mega Trends, 22 Signatures of Change53 Mega Trends, 22 Signatures of Change””

•• Developing and Using Scenarios,Developing and Using Scenarios,

••Inventing the FutureInventing the Future

••Futures Reports and StudiesFutures Reports and Studies

••““Project Horizon, NIC 2020, A New World Coming,Project Horizon, NIC 2020, A New World Coming,

thethe DCDCDCDC Strategic Trends ProgrammeStrategic Trends Programme”” and othersand others


Global FuturesGlobal Futures

Scenarios are not used to predict the future or even the most probable. They are

used to hold “strategic conversations” among decision makers and to stimulate

organizational learning. They challenge “mental models” about the world and

blinders that often limit creativity. Peter Schwartz, Art of the Long View




23


Publication and ResearchPublication and Research – – Proteus MonographsProteus Monographs

Funded Proteus Monograph Series Fellow Program (PMSFP):Funded Proteus Monograph Series Fellow Program (PMSFP):Each series published annuallyEach series published annually

– – Proteus Articles and BooksProteus Articles and Books ““ Proteus relatedProteus related”” topics for publication internal or externaltopics for publication internal or external

(3,000+ words).(3,000+ words).

Annual Workshop Proceedings Annual Workshop Proceedings

Annual Workshop Digest (selected papers) Annual Workshop Digest (selected papers)

““ Proteus: Insights from 2020: RevisitedProteus: Insights from 2020: Revisited””

– – Graduate Scholar Research and Writing AwardGraduate Scholar Research and Writing AwardProteus Writ ing Excellence Award (PWEA) onl ine.Proteus Writing Excellence Award (PWEA) onl ine.

Initiatives:Initiatives:




24


•• A forum that provides international scholars fromA forum that provides international scholars from

various organizations and institutions from acrossvarious organizations and institutions from acrossgovernment, academia and the private sector thegovernment, academia and the private sector theopportunity to present papers on topics and issuesopportunity to present papers on topics and issuesthat explore complexity in the future globalthat explore complexity in the future global

security environment as well as to examinesecurity environment as well as to examineProteus related new and innovative concepts,Proteus related new and innovative concepts,strategies and processes to meet 21st centurystrategies and processes to meet 21st centuryUnited States national security challenges.United States national security challenges.

Annual Proteus Futures Academic WorkshopsAnnual Proteus Futures Academic Workshops




25


Website EnhancementsWebsite EnhancementsInitiatives:Initiatives:

http://www.carlisle.army.mil/proteus

““New Home PageNew Home Page””••EventsEvents

••AnnouncementsAnnouncements

••Proteus USAProteus USA

Members PubsMembers Pubs

““Dynamic WorkshopDynamic Workshop

Online RegistrationOnline Registration””

Moving toMoving to

““Full CollaborationFull Collaboration””




26


Complexity Gaming EnterpriseComplexity Gaming Enterprise Established a Concept and Community of Practice:Established a Concept and Community of Practice:

DTO/ODNI, NDIC/JMITC, NSA, DIA, DOS S&T, NCTC, DMSO,DTO/ODNI, NDIC/JMITC, NSA, DIA, DOS S&T, NCTC, DMSO,

NPS,NPS, CebrowskiCebrowski Institute, DARPA, CNA, US Army TRADOC,Institute, DARPA, CNA, US Army TRADOC,USJFCOM J9, J8 SAGD, RMC Canada, UT Dallas, JHU APL,USJFCOM J9, J8 SAGD, RMC Canada, UT Dallas, JHU APL,BAH othersBAH others..

– – An Online Forum for sharing and examining ideas andAn Online Forum for sharing and examining ideas andinitiatives on serious gaming to enhance modeling andinitiatives on serious gaming to enhance modeling and

simulation efforts for experiential education decisionsimulation efforts for experiential education decisionmaking.making.

•• Focus is on developing interactive Role Playing SimulationsFocus is on developing interactive Role Playing Simulations(RPS) or a family of RPS that portrays a Regional Synthetic(RPS) or a family of RPS that portrays a Regional SyntheticEnvironment that displays with fidelity the physical and virtualEnvironment that displays with fidelity the physical and virtual

domains as background and emphasizes entity beliefdomains as background and emphasizes entity beliefsystems, their resultant actions, interactions, andsystems, their resultant actions, interactions, andinterrelationships within complex adaptive systems.interrelationships within complex adaptive systems.




Information

IrregularMilitary,Groups

Political/Religious

Social/Culture




27

EntityInsurgents

““Protean Media Critical Thinking GameProtean Media Critical Thinking Game””Game Design and PlayGame Design and Play

EntityIraq Gov

EntitySunni

EntityShia (1)

EntityKurds

EntityCoalition

EntityNGOs

EntityShia (2)

Wrapper:Wrapper: Iraq (8 Entities)Iraq (8 Entities)

••Stability & ReconstructionStability & Reconstruction••TacticalTactical --StrategicStrategic

13 Entity Actions13 Entity Actions

••Hard to softHard to soft

••Persuasive/ CoercivePersuasive/ Coercive

••Multiple action modifiersMultiple action modifiers

••MeetingsMeetings••NegotiationsNegotiations



Information

IrregularMilitary,Groups

Political/Religious

Social/Culture

““PMESIIPMESII EffectsEffects””

““DIME ActionsDIME Actions””

Direct or Indirect ActionsDirect or Indirect Actions

ReactionsReactions

Beliefs/PerceptionsBeliefs/Perceptions

Interaction/RelationshipsInteraction/Relationships


Participants: Proteus & NPS/MOVESResources: Proteus & other customersTimelines: PM Design Improvement PlanScripting and Programming ongoing





28

Proteus USAS

Questions?Questions?

Call us at 717245Call us at 717245--3366/3196 or visit our website3366/3196 or visit our websiteat: http://at: http://www.carlisle.army.mil/proteuswww.carlisle.army.mil/proteus

““It is change , continual Change, inevidible change thatIt is change , continual Change, inevidible change that

is dominant in society today. No sensible decision canis dominant in society today. No sensible decision can

be made any longer without taking into account not onlybe made any longer without taking into account not only

what the world is but the world as it will bewhat the world is but the world as it will be…… This, InThis, In

turn, means that our statesmen, our businessman, ourturn, means that our statesmen, our businessman, our

everyman must take on a science fiction way ofeveryman must take on a science fiction way of

thinking.thinking.””

Isaac AsimovIsaac Asimov

us army: pusa-brief

Documents