URBANISING INDONESIA: TRENDS AND CHALLENGES

ACHMAD NURMANDIDEP OF GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS AND ADMINISTRATION

UNIVERSITAS MUHAMMADIYAH YOGYAKARTA

OUTLINE

1. INTRODUCTION2. CONCEPT DEFINITION3. URBANISATION OF INDONESIA IN FACT4. IMPACT OF GOV POLICY ON

URBANISATION5. PATTERN OF URBANISATION6. NEW FINDINGS

Urbanisation

• Definition:• urbanization can represent the level of urban

relative to overall population, or it can represent the rate at which the urban proportion is increasing (wikipedia, org)

• Component of urbanisation• a. Migration• B. Natural • C.Reclassificaton

Urbanising

a. to make (a predominantly rural area or country) more industrialized and urbanb. to cause the migration of an increasing proportion of (rural dwellers) into cities urbanization , urbanisation n (www.freedictionary.com)

URBAN POPULATION (UP) AND JAKARTA POPULATION (JP) (BPS)

1960 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

UP=A PERCENT OF TOTAL POPULATIONJP= A PERCENT OF TOTAL URBAN POP-ULATION

1961-1971

1971-1980

1980-1985

1990-1995

2000-2005

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%

Components of Contributor to The Growth of Urban Population

Natural Increasing of Existing Urban Population

Migration and Reclassification

YearPerc

enta

ge o

f Urb

an P

opul

atio

n G

row

th

1999 20020

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Human Poverty Indeks by Province and District, 1999 and 2000  Indonesia

Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam

 North Sumatera

 West Sumatera

Riau

 Jambi

 South Sumatera

 Bengkulu

Lampung

 Bangka Belitung Islands

Riau Islands

Capital City Special Province Jakarta

West Java

Central Java

Special Province Yogyakarta

East Java

Banten

Bali

 Southeast West Nusa

Southeast East Nusa

West Kalimantan

Central Kalimantan

South Kalimantan

East Kalimantan

North Sulawesi

Central Sulawesi

South Sulawesi

Southeast Sulawesi

Gorontalo

West Sulawesi

Maluku

North Maluku

West Irian Jaya

Papua

Year

Hum

an P

over

ty In

deks

Table 3.8 Percentage of Urban Population By Province, 2000-2025

Province 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Table 3.8 Percentage of Urban Population By Province, 2000-2025

Province 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

NANGGROE ACEH DARUSSALAM 23,6 28,8 34,3 39,7 44,9 49,9 NORTH SUMATERA 42,4 46,1 50,1 54,4 58,8 63,5 WEST SUMATERA 29 34,3 39,8 45,3 50,6 55,6 RIAU 43,7 50,4 56,6 62,1 66,9 71,1 JAMBI 28,3 32,4 36,5 40,6 44,5 48,4 SOUTH SUMATERA 34,4 38,7 42,9 47 50,9 54,6 BENGKULU 29,4 35,2 41 46,5 51,7 56,5 LAMPUNG 21 27 33,3 39,8 46,2 52,2 BANGKA BELITUNG ISLANDS 43 47,8 52,2 56,5 60,3 63,9 SPECIAL CAPITAL CITY JAKARTA 100 100 100 100 100 100 WEST JAVA 50,3 58,8 66,2 72,4 77,4 81,4 CENTRAL JAVA 40,4 48,6 56,2 63,1 68,9 73,8 SPECIAL PROVINCE YOGYAKARTA 57,6 64,3 70,2 75,2 79,3 82,8 EAST JAVA 40,9 48,9 56,5 63,1 68,9 73,7 BANTEN 52,2 60,2 67,2 73 77,7 81,5 B A L I 49,7 57,7 64,7 70,7 75,6 79,6 SOUTHEAST WEST NUSA 34,8 41,9 48,8 55,2 61 66 SOUTHEAST EAST NUSA 15,4 18 20,7 23,5 26,4 29,3 WEST KALIMANTAN 24,9 27,8 31,1 34,8 39 43,7 CENTRAL KALIMANTAN 27,5 34 40,7 47,2 53,3 58,8 SOUTH KALIMANTAN 36,2 41,5 46,7 51,6 56,3 60,6 EAST KALIMANTAN 57,7 62,2 66,2 69,9 73,1 75,9 NORTH SULAWESI 36,6 43,4 49,8 55,7 61,1 65,7 CENTRAL SULAWESI 19,3 21 22,9 24,9 27,3 29,9 SOUTH SULAWESI 29,4 32,2 35,3 38,8 42,6 46,7 SOUTHEAST SULAWESI 20,8 23 25,6 28,5 31,8 35,5 GORONTALO 25,4 31,3 37 42,8 48,2 53,2 M A L U K U 25,3 26,1 26,9 27,9 28,8 29,9 NORTH MALUKU 28,9 29,7 30,6 31,5 32,5 33,6 PAPUA 22,2 22,8 23,5 24,3 25,1 26

GOVERNMENT POLICY?a.to make ( a predominantly rural area or country) more industrialized and urbanb. to cause the migration of an increasing proportion

a. Economic Policyb. Infrastructure Development Policy

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

*)

2010

**)

-500000000

0

500000000

1000000000

1500000000

2000000000

2500000000

Gross Regional Domestic Product at 2000 Constant Basic Prices by Province, 2004-2010 (Million Rupiah)

-1

Sumatera

Jawa

Jawa & Bali

Kalimantan

Sulawesi

Nusa Tenggara, Maluku & Papua

Jumlah 33 Provinsi

Year

GD

P C

onst

ant P

rices

Growth of GRDP

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

*)

2010

**)0.00

1000000000.00

2000000000.00

3000000000.00

4000000000.00

5000000000.00

6000000000.00

Gross Regional Domestic Product At Current Market Prices By Province, 2004 - 2010 (Million Rupiah)

Sumatera

Jawa

Jawa & Bali

Kalimantan

Sulawesi

Nusa Tenggara, Maluku & Papua

Jumlah 33 ProvinsiYear

GR

DP

at C

urre

nt M

arke

t Pric

es

Long-run Equilibrium (Blane Dlewis, 2010)

Working population

(1%)

Urban population

(1%)

Urban Primacy(1%)

Economic Growth

2,8%

0.2%

3%

Economic GrowthDinamics (Blane Dlewis, 2010)

Working population

(1%)

Urban population

(1%)

Urban Primacy(1%)

Economic Growth

0.2%

0.7%

0.6%

PROPORTION OF PDRB (SOURCE:SAKERNAS 2010)

City-out Java12%

City in Java30%

Regency out Java30%

Regency in Java28%

Chart Title

MIGRATION TO JAKARTA(litbang Kompas:source Dinas Kependudukan dan Catatan Sipil DKI Jakarta)

2008 jan 2008sept 2008oct 2009jan 2009sep 2009oct 2010sept 2010oct 2010april0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

In-migrationOut-migration

Change of Economic Activity in Jabodetabek (Puteri Rosalina, 2011)

1993 2009

primary secondary tertiary primary secondary Tertiary

Jakarta 0.28 35.8 64 0.32 26.7 73

Bogor Reg 20.9 49.4 29.8 6.1 68.6 25.3

Bogor City 0.37 36.8 62.9 0.3 38.4 61.4

Depok City

4.02 48.5 47.5 2.8 49.9 47.2

Tangerang Reg

14 59.3 26.7 10.4 71.7 17.9

Tangerang city

1.18 47.5 51.3 0.16 51.9 47.9

South Tangerang Reg

1.2 30.9 67.9 0.99 28.5 70.5

Bekasi Reg 9.6 60.9 29.4 3.2 81.7 15.1

Bekasi City 1.2 55.7 43.2 0.9 50.9 48.2

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT POLICY Respondents evaluated the overall level of competence and quality of logistics services (e.g. transport operators, customs brokers), on a rating ranging from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high).

Scores are averaged across all respondents.This page includes a historical data chart, news and forecats for Logistics performance index: Competence and quality of logistics services (1=low

to 5=high) in Indonesia.

Indonesia Position2010, logictic performance index of Indonesia at 75 rank amongts 155

countries, decrease from rank 43 in 2009. Singapura’rank is 2, China (13), Malaysia

(29), Thailand (35), Filipina (44), dan Vietnam (53).

Sumatera Jawa Bali&NT Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Papua

88 93 88

64 67

43

22

75 10

9 9

14

16

5 2 2

27 24

43

62

State Road Condition (2006)Good minor damaged heavy damaged

Southea

st Sulaw

esi

South Kali

mantan

Bangk

a Belit

ung isla

nd

Centra

l Sulaw

esi

West Su

lawesi

Maluku

East N

usa Ten

ggara

Papua

Nort Sulaw

esi

Centra

l Kalim

antan

Riau isl

and

West Nusa

Tengg

ara

East K

aliman

tanBan

ten

South Su

lawesi

Nort Sumate

ra

West Ja

wa0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

Number of buildings slum's area in indonesia by province in 2008

number of Buildings

Moving average (number of Buildings)

MORE THAN 80% OF MANUFACTURE INDUSTRY LOCATED IN JAVA AND 13% IN AND 7% IN OTHER ISLANDOUTER JAVA EXPORT PRIMARY PRODUCT TO JAVA ISLAND AND IMPORT SECONDARY PRODUCT FROM JAVA ISLANDPRODUCTION PROCESS IN OUTER JAVA DEPEND ON INPUT FROM JAVA ISLANDSPILLOVER EEFECT OF OUTER JAVA ECONOMY ON JAVA ECONOMY IS HIGHER THAN OUTER JAVA ECONOMY EFFECT ON JAVA ISLAND (Winda, UNAS,2011)

EXPLANATORY MODEL URBANISATION IN INDONESIA

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

POLICYURBAN CENTERJAVA-CENTERED DEVELOPMENT

INFRASTRUCTURE

DEVELOPMENT

URBANISATIONMIGRATION

RECLASSIFICATION