updated op ex power-point 22nd march 2011
TRANSCRIPT
Welcome to Oilsim
2
Three Part Learning System
Introduction to the Industry Overview of the Oil & Gas
Industry Value Chain
Oilpatch EXClassroom
Exploration 101 Drilling and Completions 101
e-LearningModules
OilSim OilSim Team Learning Simulation
Your Challenge Today
You are an exploration team in charge of a new petroleum exploration area.
Your task is to find and drill for new reserves and to maximize return on investment (ROI).
You will need to work as a company as well as in partnership with others.
You will show your new understanding of exploration and be rewarded through Credibility Points.
Finances
You will start with $50 millionYou can apply for more later.
Creating ValueProfit is measured by the net value of the oil and gas fields discovered MINUS all costs involved.
Winning team has highest ROIROI is calculated as Value created DIVIDED by Funds received.
Credibility Points
You get CPs for doing wellduring the simulationCorrect answers and sensibledecisions are awarded with CPs
CPs are a measure of ability and credibilityA team’s CPs are considered when bidding for blocks and applying for funds from the HQ
You will learn
Where and how to find hydrocarbons. Various surveys during exploration.
Licensing rounds. Farm-in and Partnerships.
Drilling rigs and Sub-contractors.
Environmental issues.
Economically viable volumes. Reducing uncertainty.
Team work and negotiation. Critical decision making, analytical skills. Multi-tasking.
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Today’s Agenda – OilSim
AM
Team Challenge 1 – Finding Basins
Team Challenge 2 – Finding Prospects
Team Challenge 3a – Partnerships
PM
Team Challenge 3b – Drilling
Team Challenge 4 – License Round 2
Close and Feedback
Login
www.oilsim.com
Main screen
MapColumns e.g C1, and C54
Row
s e
.g. R
35 a
nd R
163
Block
Blocks are divided into smaller cellse g. C57,R73
First challenge
Challenge: Find three sedimentary basins in the area. Basins are sedimentary rocks in the deep subsurface where oil and gas has been generated.
Procedure: Buy and study magnetic and gravimetric surveys; and to submit the coordinates, column and row number for each basin centre.
Gravimetric surveys
Gravimetric surveys show the gravity in the sub-surface. Measured by airborne sensors.
Sedimentary rocks have lower densities than the surrounding crystalline rocks. Low gravity means high probability of a basin below.
Low gravity are basins.
High gravity are crystalline rocks
Surveys in OilSim
Real gravimetric survey
Survey in Oilsim
Gravimetric survey:South-east quadrant Gravimetric
survey:South-east quadrant
Survey in OilSim
All four quadrant surveys in map context.
Magnetic surveys
Magnetic surveys show similar information as gravimetric surveys. The sedimentary rocks in the basins have a lower concentration of magnetic materials than the surrounding crystalline rocks. Sedimentary basins are the areas with the lowest magnetic field.
Basins have low magnetic field
Non-basins have high magnetic fields.
Real magnetic survey
Survey in OilSim
Magnetic survey:North-west quadrant
Survey in OilSim
All four quadrant surveys in map context.
Gravimetric survey analysis
Locate edges of the continous basin structure (yellow area)
Locate the diagonals and thus basin centre
Magnetic survey analysis
Locate edges of the continous basin structure (purple area)
Locate the diagonals and thus basin centre
Finding the Midpoint
Centre may not be the same
Example:
Top basin on both maps
Calculate the midpoint between the gravimetric and magnetic centres found
= C55 and R105
C50
R100
C60
R110
Enter decision
Centre Midpoint calculation
3 centres – one Centre midpoint for each basin
Example: C55, R105
Solve before deadline. All submissions are evaluated after the deadline (and not before).
You may get 0-100 CPs. All three centres must be located to get full Credibility points.
Solve task 1
Task 1 solved
All teams have submitted their answers. Basin centres are located.
Message in Inbox. All teams have answers and CPs awarded.
Challenge 2 : license round
Sedimentary basins may contain oil and gas.
The government has decided to put the blocks around one of the basins on offer.
Challenge: Identify the 3 most promising blocks and offer an amount for each of them.
Challenge 2 : license round
Any restrictions involved? Yes, you need to watch for Endangered Species Rangeland.
What are we looking for? Hydrocarbon Prospects.
Where do we find prospects? In sedimentary basins
How do I find them? Interpreting 2D seismic and Common Risk Segment maps.
Prospect
Prospect: An area of interest in the subsurface identified to be likely to contain hydrocarbons
What makes a prospect?
Source rock
Migration path
Reservoir rock
Seal or cap rock
Trap
Traps
Geological “pockets”, that might contain hydrocarbons.
(c) OLFAnticline trap
Fault trap
Stratigraphic trap
Salt dome trap
Environmentally Sensitive Areas
Red areasYou will not be allowed to bid, drill or operate in any of the red areas. Green areasBlocks in area may be awarded.
Sensitive Range-Lands Survey
Common Risk Segments
Is there a sedimentary basin and a migration route into the prospects in the area?
Is there porous reservoir rock in the area, so that the oil or gas can be stored?
Is there a sealing rock in the area, so that the oil and gas can be trapped?
If all are positive, then green
If some negative, then orange
If mostly negative, then red
Common Risk Segment
Layer 3 Eocene1500m below the surface
Layer 2 Paleocene2500m below the surface
Layer 1 Cretaceous3500m below the surface
CRS. Common Risk Segment surveys tell you about the probability of a structure in the block/cell containing
oil or gas
Surface
2D Seismic surveys
Traps can be found with seismic surveys
2D seismic survey is a cross section of the geological layers along either a column or a row.
2D seismic surveys are used for locating prospects.
Real Seismic
Real Seismic
OilSim of 2DSeismic
Unprocessed Processed
Interpreted Red is top of the sealing rock
Green is top of the reservoir rock
Anticlinal traps
Fault traps
Leakage
Leakage?
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Order Seismic
45
Buy 2D Seismic from the Survey Shop
Order Seismic
What type of data do you want?
Columns or Rows
Unprocessed or processed data
Interpreted or not
Order Seismic
It takes time to process your request
Created to order
View the Seismic
Red circles – navigate through the 2D seismic
Yellow square – Row 1 from Column 1-56
Cross-sections
Column
Row
Prospect, ReservoirBasin,Source
License Round in OilSim
Minimum bid is $250K
Maximum bid is $7.5M
Enter numbers without commas (ex: 250000)
You will bid for 3 licenses but each team will only be awarded one license
Highest bid wins the license
If two teams bid the same, the team with the most CP’s gets it
Random license awarded if none of your bids are high enough
Submit your bid before the deadline!
Enter bids
Three different blocks
Three bids
Example-Block 1123
Bid 250000
Recap on Challenge 2
Study Sensitive Rangelands Survey to see which blocks to avoid
Use Common Risk Segment surveys to see which blocks to examine closer (look for green)
Buy and study many 2D surveys to identify which ones have the most potential traps, as well as the biggest traps.
Solve task 2
Task 2 solved
Message sent to all teams with the results
Credibility points are given for prosperity of the blocks you bid for
Every team has got one exploration license
Challenge 3 : Exploration Drilling
Company management has reviewed the licence that you were awarded and the potential cost to drill a well.
Although the possibility of finding oil is fair, the costs involved are large. They have asked you to spread the risk.
Challenge: Farm-out a minimum of 20% on your license and farm-in as much as you can on other good licences.
Partnerships
Spread the risk: e.g Investing in other blocks divides the risks amongst all partners, much more preferable than keeping 100% of one field and all the risk.
Increase probability of profit: investment in only 1 field which could be a dry prospect is possible, whereas the likelihood of investing in 5 fields which are all dry is unlikely.
Challenge 3.1 Partnering
Acquire 3D Seismic interpretations for the block you operate, and study the results from the licensing round-can send under “surveys” to possible partners
Farm-out: Get others to invest 20% or more in your license
Farm-in: Send offers to other teams to buy shares in their viable licences. Submit an offer for each viable licence, with amount offered and share wanted in whole %.
Real 3D Seismic
Shows the subsurface structure in a cube.
3D Seismic in OilSim
Structures are prospects, where hydrocarbons may be.
Prospects are no guarantee for oil
or gas
3D Seismic in OilSim
Layer 1 Cretaceous
Layer 2 Paleocene
Layer 3 Eocene
Licences
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Farm-in
Input your amount and %
Min bid is $25000 and max is $1250000 per %
Add a message to the seller
Press “Send offer”
Financing
When a team receives a Farm-In offer it appears under Financing. This is where a team can receive finance or money for a % of their own blocks
Farm-in
license OWNER decides whether to ACCEPT or REJECT the offer Partnerships established every time a license owner accepts an offer.
Investing
All your farm-in offers to other teams are shown under “Investing” on the right-hand side of the homepage . This is where a team offers investments to other teams for a % of their blocks
Partnerships
Partners pay a proportional share of all future costs incurred by the partnership
Partners receive a proportional share of the net proceedings from any oil or gas found on the license.
The operator team makes all decisions regarding acquiring 3D seismic, drilling of wells and testing of wells.
Information: partners in a block can access info about drilled wells and discovered oil and gas fields.
Ready to drill
Click on drill
Choose rig
Truck mounted Rigs
Medium Duty Rigs
Heavy Duty Rigs
Choose Rig
Max drilling depth is important
Rig cost = drilling days * day rate
Rigs
Few: limited number of rigs available.
If you get one: start using it within 20 minutes.
If you don’t: wait in a queue, if another team is using the rig.
Price can change: rig day rates are dynamic.
Drilling Depths
Ground level
3500 m below surface
Layer 3 Eocene
Layer 2 Paleocene
Layer 1 Cretaceous
19 days
1500 m below surface
2500 m below surface 45 days
35 days
Service providers
9 Star quality:
Good- costs more
Bad: - cheaper, but reliability is low
5 types of providers- Construction and Maintenance , Logistics, Well Services, Camp Services and Analysis
Penalties & Fines
Certain problems can occur if Service Provider Selection is poor quality
Other penalties can occur if you drill in areas indicated as problematic in the Environmental Impact Assessment
As in real life, problems can occur randomly and these are also applied with fines levied accordingly.
Oil spill control – 5% of overall drilling costs
Environmental Impact Assessment
EIA survey: more knowledge about the area.
Less probability for drilling problems.
Less severe consequences if you run into problems.
Drill Position
EIA: enviromental impact analysis shows where not to drill.
Place your mouse where to drill
Drilling Position
Layer 1 Cretaceous
Layer 2 Paleocene
Layer 3 Eocene
Drill Position
Too deep for the chosen rig.
Estimated cost
Drilling Days
Drilling Result
Proven Volume (MBOE) counts
Test may increase Proven volume
Remember to tick the boxes!
Testing
Only if you discover a field – find Oil or Gas
You decide whether you want more information about that field
More information by doing a production test (and other tests)
Tests costs. Tests take 10 days per field. Tests have the same day-rate as the drilling if you use the same providers.
Value and ROI
Volume Range, e.g. 1-897Proven Reserves e.g. 1
Value Calculation
The total proven oil and gas = 18MBOE
Allowing for 25% recovery factor0.8 Production profile factor and 10% discount factor per year
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BEHIND THE SCENE CALCULATION
18MBOE x 25% recovery factor = 4.5MBOE
Sales price without discount factor -> 4.5MBOE x $50 = $225,000,000 Sales price allowing for production profile -> $225,000,000 x 0.8 (production factor)
= $180,000,000
Reduced sales price with 10% discount factor per year
= $ 67,397,022
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VALUE CALCULATION
12% $39.9M($6 of $50 = 12% tax)
Expected costs ifyou developed thefield (CAPEX) andproducedthe oil (OPEX)
If total expenses arehigher than the salesvalue, the licence value is zero
Appraisal
From Probable volume to proven reserves
Narrowing ranges
Aero drilling - Only proven MBOE counts
Exploration well:
1 to 897 MBOE (after drilling)
11 to 566 MBOE (after testing)
First appraisal well:
25 to 333 MBOE (after drilling)
34 to 310 MBOE (after testing)
Second appraisal well:
65 to 250 MBOE (after drilling)
101 to 152 MBOE (after testing)
Only proven MBOE counts.
Increasing Proven Volumes
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Appraisal wells - proven reserves increase
Range between proven and possible is decreased
Effect on calculation of licence
•
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Expected costs ifyou developed thefield (CAPEX) andproducedthe oil (OPEX)
Now total expenses are lower than the sales value and so we have a positive licence value
397 MBOE @ $50 including 25% recovery factor, 0.8 production factor, 10% discount factor)
12% $39.9M$6 of $50 = 12% tax)
Challenge 3B Drilling
Continue...
Narrow uncertainty: Drill appraisal wells to get proven volumes
Drill into other prospects to find more proven volumes.
Farm-in and -out: Get into other good blocks.
Two additional licensing rounds: Repeat the processes.
Money: Apply for more money, if you run out of cash.
Apply For More Funds
Click on Apply for More Funds Tab.
1 CP for each $100,000 applied for.
Answer the questions: All correct gives cash and you can keep CPs. One wrong gives cash and you keep ½ of your CPs. Two wrong gives ½ cash and you lose all CPs. All wrong, you get no cash and lose all CPs.
<10 Credibility points: Apply for cash and be fined $5million for each $20million requested.
Company strategy
Access to new exploration
areas
Make new discoveries
World class project
performance
Increased recovery through
systematic plans and actions
Exploration acreage: Resources Reserves Production
94949494
Oilpatch EX Learning Objectives
Describe Industry
Articulate Value Chain
Practice Skills
Appreciate Complexity
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Industry Overview Summary
Industry
Public
Regulator
Government
Investor
Consumer
969696Source: Photos.com 9696Source: Photos.com
The Lenses We Looked Through
Thank you