WMO

Update on (WMO) Polar Activities for CAS MAN

Øysten Hov, Vladimir Ryabinin

WMO; CAS Man, 23-25 April 2014

WMO

Main avenues of development WWRP PPP – dedicated presentation Wed (incl. PCPI+) IPCC AR5:

WG I: polar Issues - in many chapters WG II: in several chapters, esp. Ch 28 “Polar Regions”

WMO (ECPORS - Antarctic, Observations, Research, Services and Third Pole/High Mountain Regions)

WCRP and CliC Activities of other organizations Overarching IPY – IPD – IPI – IPPI

WMO

Ch 28 “Polar Regions”, ArcticHeterogeneity of climate change impacts because of the high diversity of social systems, bio-physical regions and associated drivers of change, including demography, culture and economic development. Rate of change may exceed the rate at which some of their components can successfully adapt. True for Arctic communities with narrowly based economies that leave a smaller range of adaptive choices. Impacts on the health and well-being of Arctic residents from climate change are significant and projected to increase – especially for many indigenous peoples.Temperatures, thawing of permafrost and changing precipitation to affect infrastructure and related services in the Arctic.Shifts in the timing and magnitude of seasonal biomass production could disrupt matched phenologies in the food webs, leading to decreased survival of dependent species. Some marine species will shift their ranges. Sea ice reduction is primary concern for polar bears.Ocean acidification has the potential to inhibit embryo development and shell formation of some zooplankton and krill in the Polar Regions with potentially far-reaching consequences to food webs in these.

WMO

ECPORS (Observations) Operational and research observing networks in Polar

Regions should be integrated within the framework of WIGOS and WIS: observing networks in Polar Regions to be enhanced to include cryosphere related variables

Integrate all Antarctic networks into an AntON that will comprise all operational stations, all of which should produce climate messages, reduce costs of RT data transmission for research-funded stations

Advocate for expanded AMDAR coverage in polar regions

Ensure WMO contributes to SAON network inventories Move forward on Arctic-HYCOS

GAW:• the inadequate and diminishing atmospheric composition observation networks

to support research and understanding of the rapid changing Polar Regions remains a concern. There were no new GAW stations established in Polar Regions since previous session of EC-PORS.

• it is difficult to assess if the current network configuration addresses adequately the issues relevant to polar regions or not.

• EC-PORS is requested to work with GAW in highlighting the importance to Members for submission of data which are required to understand the processes relevant to the Arctic and Antarctic.

• GCW, with IASOA, is considering GAW stations as CryoNet sites, building them into GCW reference or integrated sites – sustained support for GAW stations would benefit GCW and CryoNet

ECPORS considers expressing concern about diminishing GAW networks

WMO EC-PORS-5 – Wellington, New Zealand, February 2014

From ECPORS(5) presentation on related WMO Initiatives

WMO

Global Cryosphere Watch ECPORSAgreed to the proposed GCW working structure, the TOR, and the membership of the GCW Steering Group. Approved the process for the establishment of CryoNet, including its initial sites and criteria for inclusion of the candidate sites into CryoNet.Will advocate on the importance of Regular Budget funding for the core GCW functions.

Climate issues for ECPORS Through WCP

Develop cross-regional RCCs and define the scope of Arctic and Antarctic RCCs

Establish & sustain new RCOFs …in Polar Regions

GIPPS (tomorrow)

Governance& Support

Methods

Disciplinary science

Integrative Grand Challenges

+ Co-sponsored activities and projects with:GCOS, GOOS, GTOS,WWRP, IGBP and its projects, IOC, SCOR, …

+ 4 project offices & 1 Support unit

Main polar activities of other organizations and how WMO participates:

IASC (ICARP III) - via WCRP/CliC

SCAR (Horizon Scan) – via WCRP/CliC

AC TFSC – seeking observer status with AC

AACA – via WCRPSWIPA – via WCRP/CliC

PAME AMSA -reflected inECPORS services document

AHDR II

– AOS, SAON: secretariat participation

SOOS – via WCRP/CLIVAR

JCOMM, GOOSETSI + IICWG WCRP/SCAR IPABIABP

GCW, GIPPS,AntON,PSTG agencies

There is no agreed international plan for the development of the Arctic Ocean OS

• Arctic, Antarctic and the Southern Ocean, alpine regions

Fast and dramatic transformations in the polar regions profoundly impact their environment, economy and the life of local residents. Change is outpacing our understanding of the Arctic and the Antarctic and our ability to provide knowledge for decision-making in polar-related activities

• Changes in the Polar Regions have very significant global implications and are anticipated to increase in the decades to come. “What happens in the poles does not stay in the poles”

International Polar Partnership Initiative

Are key polar problems adequately addressed?

Main polar issues are not addressed at present as effectively as needed. The current failure to effectively address these issues will be felt globally and much stronger by future generations.

Does previous R&D, i.e. under IPY, make it possible to address the locally- and globally- important issues?

Outcomes of IPY + other R/D: all solutions exist as prototypes. “From knowledge – to action” Resources!

No organization nor any nation can effectively achieve its objectives in

the Polar Regions without coordination and sharing resources.

Need for a fundamental change in approach. Increased efficiency of using funding, the ability to do more with less ;

high quantifiable return on investment in observations, R&D; focus on practical use of the research outcomes;

Key: cooperation, coordination, and sharing the resources towards achieving an agreed set of socially valuable regional & global goals

Promote cooperation in research on human and natural processes in the poles and help to identify synergies and effectively use existing resources to address important polar issues of common interest. Engage multiple stakeholders and support the activities that are relevant to societal issues and benefit from enhanced collaboration and coordination.

IPPI: Agreement to cooperate, Framework, Implementation Plan

Specifically, IPPI aims to:•Create, upgrade, and maintain necessary polar components of observing, assessment, prediction, and services systems;•Strengthen interdisciplinary/multiplatform data collection, search and rescue, exchange, archival and access, and related interoperability;•Build long-term capacity in the communities of polar scientists and practitioners providing services; and •Develop a common language and cooperative synergistic relations between local peoples, social and natural scientists, and practitioners.

Observations

Research

Services

Users, people

Critical aspects of WMO EC PORS comments on IPPI Concept •Lack of clarity in purpose (?)

•Not clear what additional strengths or activities will be derived that could not be achieved using existing mechanisms (ObsSs?)

•WMO focuses on the Global Cryosphere Watch,Global Integrated Polar Prediction System andYear of Polar Prediction (role of cooperation as partners with IASC, SCAR, AMAP, social research?)

•ECPORS for WMO remains the main coordinating mechanism, especially for Antarctic and Third Pole

•Need that IPPI add value to own WMO efforts

•Concern that focus and resources may be diverted (the opposite is true)

•Request to present Concept update to ECPORS for further consideration at EC-66

 

The IPPI needs to be elaborated much further, beyond Concept, to truly demonstrate its potential and value.

First step – identification of common priorities and interests

Second step – preparation of a draft Implementation Plan

20042004 20082008 20122012 20162016 20202020 20242024 20282028 20322032

Observing SystemsObserving Systems

Data AccessData Access

Scientific CooperationScientific Cooperation

Next GenerationNext Generation

The International Polar Year and beyond

Horizon Scan

AACA

YOPP

IPPI: status

- Concise (5 p.) Concept following the ideas of IPI - as requested by WMO in 2013. - Enthusiasm in the Steering Group + new Partners, e.g. - Clear understanding of highly economical nature of IPPI (e.g. “microsecretariat”)- Understanding that IPPI is 100% compatible with “bottom-up” research planning undertaken by IASC (ICARP III), SCAR (HS), AMAP (AACA), YOPP, IAHDP-2- ECPORS-5 reaction, ASSW assigned IPPI to implement ICARP III outcomes- SCAR on board, AC positive, some interested nations…- A timetable of development