update of the long-term renovation strategy...6 23/09/2019 ltrs 2050 long-term buildings renovation...

LTRS 2050

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Update of the long-term renovation strategy

Strategies to reach a decarbonised building stock by 2050

Quentin Jossen

LTRS 20503 23/09/2019

Source: IPCC, 2018. Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C

“We have no room to build anything that emits CO2 emissions” Fatih Barol, IEA executive director

42GtCO2

Annual

Remaining

Total420GtCO2

The 1.5°C carbon budget corresponds to 10 years of

current acitivities

LTRS 2050

The EU Commission adopted the strategic long-term vision towards net zero GHG emission in 2050

4

Source: EU Parliament, EU Commission, Euractiv, European Climate Foundation, CLIMACT

Oct. 2017 Oct. 2018 Nov. 2018 Dec. 2018

The EU Parliament urges the Commission to provide a cost-efficient pathway towards reaching the net zero emissions goal adopted in the Paris Agreement

The European Parliament reiterated the call for an ambitious and cost-efficient mid-century zero emissions strategy

The Commission adopted the strategic long-term vision.

It confirms Europe's commitment to lead in global climate action and pleads for net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050

The European Council invited MS to work on the Commission's Communication

MS submitted their NECP’s

Jan.-June 2019

EU Parliament supports the net-zero scenarios of the Commission (in a non-binding resolution)

EU Commission provide feedback to MS about NECP’s

Dec. 2019

MS submit their - NECP (2030) and - Long-term Strategy

UNFCCC (2050)

LTRS 2050

Renovating the entire building stock requires a 3%/year rate !But what does a 3%/year means?

How many renovated dwellings in Flanders per day?

How many renovated schools in Flanders per year?

23/09/20195

250

100

… if each renovation leads to carbon neutrality

LTRS 205023/09/20196

Long-term buildings renovation strategies should help capture the key role of buildings in the net zero challenge

2014 2017 2020

MS submit their first LTRS in answer to Article 4 of the

EPBD

MS update their LTRS in answer to

Article 4 of the EPBD that requires

that LTRS be revised every years

2019

LTRS should be annexed to NECPs

Final LTRS 2050 to be submitted by March, 10th 2020

2030

LTRS will be updated every 10

years in the framework of NECPs

The revised EPBD (2018/844/EU)

amends parts of the 2010 EPBD and introduces new elements to be provided in the

LTRS

20182016

The JRC communicates an assessment of the quality of the LTRS

The JRC communicates an assessment of the quality of the 2nd

LTRS

LTRS 2050

Context

Where do we stand

Buildings stock

Assessment of the existing content by the JRC

Required additional elements for the 2020 update

Wallonia: additional measures in the NECP and the regional political declaration

Key attention points

CONFIDENTIAL8 23/09/2019

Agenda

LTRS 2050 CONFIDENTIAL9 23/09/2019

In both regions, most houses are built before the first building code

19

46

-19

70

18%1

97

0-1

98

1

19

19

-19

45

< 1

91

9

19

82

-19

91

19

92

-20

11

> 2

01

2

5%11%

39%

11% 13%

3%

Residential buildings in Wallonia

19

82

-19

91

13%

19

19

-19

45

< 1

91

9

19

46

-19

70

19

70

-19

81

19

92

-20

11

> 2

01

2

15%

27%

15%9%

17%

4%

Detached

Terraced

Halfopen

Appartements

3%2%

4%

6%

9%

13%

15%17% 17%

10%

5%

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 kWh/ (m² jaar)

WONINGEN

0,5% 1% 1%2%

4%

7%

12%

24%

38%

10%

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 kWh/ (m² jaar)

APPARTEMENTEN

0,5%

Gebouwd na 2006 (EPB-plichtig)Gebouwd voor 2006

< 2006 (bestaande bouw) > 2006 (nieuwbouw)

13%

15%

15%15%

31%

1%G

A/A+/A++

FE

B

D

C9%

Residential buildings in Flanders

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Context

Where do we stand

Buildings stock






Agenda

LTRS 2050

Wallonia Flanders

Strengths • Clear and ambitious long-term target• Good articulation of a comprehensive set

of measures to reach the long-term targets

• Clear long-term target (EPC100)

Weaknesses and caveats

• Needs more specific measures to foster deep renovation

• Better evaluation of the multiple benefits • A scenario analysis is missing

• Is EPC100 ambitious enough?• Not clear how the measures allow to reach

the long-term target• No good view on the energy savings

obtained by the implementation of the strategy

• Weak evaluation of the multiple benefits

Source: JRC

23/09/2019 CONFIDENTIAL11

The evaluation by the JRC points out strengths and weaknesses of LTRS submitted in 2017

LTRS 2050

Label A (85kWh/m²/year) in average for residential buildings

Energy neutral non residential buildings


Long-term targets in Wallonia

G

F

E

D

C

B

A

A+

A++

2050

Today average

average

2013 2050Energy neutral

14 TWh

0

-100%

http://energie.wallonie.be/fr/strategie-de-renovation.html?IDC=9580

http://energie.wallonie.be/fr/strategie-de-renovation.html?IDC=9580

LTRS 205023/09/2019 CONFIDENTIAL13

Long-term targets in Flanders

3%2%

4%

6%

9%

13%

15%17% 17%

10%

5%

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 kWh/ (m² jaar)

WONINGEN

0,5% 1% 1%2%

4%

7%

12%

24%

38%

10%

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 kWh/ (m² jaar)

APPARTEMENTEN

0,5%

Gebouwd na 2006 (EPB-plichtig)Gebouwd voor 2006

< 2006 (bestaande bouw) > 2006 (nieuwbouw)

30 years to renovate 90% to 95% of buildings means 3% renovation rate if each renovation leads to the long-term target

+ Fossile


Long-term targets in Flanders: carbon neutrality with milestones on energy efficiency

Carbon neutrality

EPC100EE FossileEPC360

90% fossil

Label AEE Fossile

20192050

Illustrative

LTRS 2050

Energy efficiency milestones are key to avoid putting excessive reliance on the power sector for heat decarbonization

15 23/09/2019

1.000

2.000

0

500

1.500

-20%

-24%

+79%

+43%

Electricity consumption[TWh]

• Gradual increase up to 2030 to 3% rate of renovation with depth ranging from [-25% to -90%], heat fully decarbonized by 2050

• And in yellow : mid-range of [-50% to -75%]

Faster implementation : • 3% annual rate is reached by 2025 • with an average energy savings of 75%

EU Reference scenario

Choice of renovation strategies

2015 20352020 20452025 20502030 2040

LTRS 2050

Context

Where do we stand

Buildings stock






Agenda

LTRS 2050

Propose a strategy to reach a decarbonised building stock by 2050

Set out a roadmap with measures and domestically established measurable progress indicatorsincluding indicative milestones for 2030, 2040 and 2050

Support the mobilisation of investments by facilitate access to appropriate mechanisms

Carry out a public consultation

Detail the implementation of the most recent long-term renovation strategy


Requirements of the Article 2a of the revised EPBD

LTRS 2050

an overview of the national building stock, and expectations for 2020;

the identification of cost-effective approaches to renovation, considering potential relevant trigger points

policies and actions to (target)

stimulate cost-effective deep renovation and support targeted cost-effective measures

worst performing segments of the national building stock,

split incentive dilemmas and market failures,

alleviation of energy poverty; (an outline of relevant national actions that contribute to)

all public buildings;

an overview of national initiatives to promote smart technologies and well-connected buildings and communities, as well as skills and education in the construction and energy efficiency sectors;

an evidence-based estimate of expected energy savings and wider benefits, such as those related to health, safety and air quality


The strategy shall include the following new

LTRS 2050

the aggregation of projects, including by investment platforms or groups, and by consortia of small and medium-sized enterprises, to enable investor access as well as packaged solutions for potential clients;

the reduction of the perceived risk of energy efficiency operations for investors and the private sector;

the use of public funding to leverage additional private-sector investment or address specific market failures;

guiding investments into an energy efficient public building stock, in line with Eurostat guidance;

accessible and transparent advisory tools, such as one-stop-shops for consumers and energy advisory services, on relevant energy efficiency renovations and financing instruments.


Access shall be facilitated to mechanisms for

LTRS 2050

Context

Where do we stand

Buildings stock






Agenda


Measures and actions of the Walloon strategy are structured around 3 axis

Enforce the legal and regulatory framework to

ensure the transparency, stability and

credibility required to mobilize investments

Strengthen the market of renovation services

towards improved energy efficiency delivered

by skilled professionals

Strengthen demand

for energy-performant buildings

LTRS 2050

Tools: renovation roadmap, building passport, one-stop shop

Financing support conditioned to realizing an audit

Priority on roofs for label F and G buildings until 2025

Increased for vulnerable publics

By 2025, all rented dwellings will need to comply with min level E (F & G), following the roadmap

By 2025, incentives to renovate sold dwellings, following the roadmap

Develop the appropriate legal and regulatory framework for ESCOs and EPCs in Wallonia


Key measures proposed in the Walloon Energy and Climate Plan project

LTRS 2050

Target carbon neutrality by 2050 and align the 2030 milestone with the -55% GHG reduction target

Net-zero carbon new buildings by 2027

Monitor the impact of strategy to fine tune the implementation,

Cadastre of public buildings by end 2020 and 10-year investment plan

Building passport and prioritization of works

Frame energy efficiency within the broader perspective of quality dwellings and access to it

Alliance “jobs – environment – renovation”

Objective to renovate 250 000 dwellings and 2 500 public buildings, and to develop required means


Key measures in the Walloon political declaration

LTRS 205023/09/2019 CONFIDENTIAL24

LTRS 2050

Context

Where do we stand

Buildings stock






Agenda


Measures to capture trigger points can play a key role

Renovations with permits

Rent rotation

Deep energy renovations

Structure issues

Sales

Other property transfers

3%/year

Empty buildings

3,9

2,5

1,0

0,6

0,4

0,0

0,0

Activity rate of the main trigger points in buildings’ lifetimedata for Flanders

What is not captured there must be captured in dwellings without specific additional opportunity


Data for Wallonia

A 2030 target for the worst-performing buildings already requires a high renovation rate

F+G E D C B A

Today 46% 15% 15% 13% 9% 2%

2030 24% 24% 22% 18% 11%

2035 30% 28% 24% 17%

2040 38% 34% 27%

2045 54% 47%

2050 100%

4.6% 4.8% 6.1% 7.7%%/year 10.7%

and the less ambitious the renovations, the higher the increase of the required rate

LTRS 2050

Priorities to target are:

Commercials

Offices

Schools

There is a need to strengthen existing schemes to reachthe long-term targets

Source: CityNvest


Non-residential buildings

LTRS 2050

Stimualte the renovation of priority targets

Identify priority targets

Foster their renovation

Implement incentives, supports and communication suited to all target segments

Frame any project within global and long-term perspectives

Ensure a global approach

Ensure the long-term quality of the projects

23-09-19 CONFIDENTIAL29

The renovation strategy must stimulate the renovation of priority targetsand ensure any project is framed within global and long-term perspectives

update of the long-term renovation strategy...6 23/09/2019 ltrs 2050 long-term buildings renovation...

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