unwto tourism report 20100
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2010 International Tourism Results and Prospects for 2011
UNWTO News Conference HQ, Madrid, Spain17 January 2011
John G.C. KesterTourism Trends and Marketing Strategies
Programme
2010: Multi-speed recovery
International tourist arrivals, 1995-2010*
528561
586602
626
675 675695 684
755
795
839
894913
877
935
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1995 2000 2005 2010*
mill
ion
International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (% change)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010*
+6.7%-4.0%+2.1%
International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution Advanced economies & Emerging economies (% change)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2008 2009 2010*
Advanced economies
Emerging economies
International tourist arrivals by country of destination
050
100150200250300350400450500550
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010*
millio
n
advanced economiesemerging economies
Source: World Tourism Organization
Growth driven by emerging destinations
International tourist arrivals by country of destination
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010*
shar
e (%
) advanced economiesemerging economies
Source: World Tourism Organization
Growth driven by emerging destinations
International Tourist Arrivals (% change over same period of the previous year)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
-5-3
-10
-4 -3
1
-2-3
-6
-3
-7
-2
3 4
-6
5 42
14 12
6
108
4
810
6 7
14
-0.1
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Northern Europe
Western Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
Southern/Mediter. Eu
North-East A
siaSouth-East A
siaOceania
South AsiaNorth
AmericaCaribbean
Central AmericaSouth America
North Afric
aSubsaharan Afric
aMiddle East
09*/08 2010*
Multi-speed recovery
Is it just a ‘dead cat bounce’ or a real new up-trend?
International Tourist Arrivals, monthly evolution World (million)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec
2007200820092010*
2010: 935 mn2009: 877 mn => 2010: +58 mn2008: 913 mn => 2010: +22 mn
2010 compared to pre-crisis peak year 2008International Tourist Arrivals (% change 2010 over pre-crisis peak year 2008)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
-5.5
1.9
-6.3-1.6
10.6 12.74.2
7.5
0.7 0.3
7.8 8.4 10.77.5
1.52.5
-10-505
1015
WorldNorth
ern Euro
peWest
ern Euro
peCent
ral/East
ern E...
Souther
n/Medi
ter. Eu.
North-East
AsiaSout
h-East
Asia
Oceania
South A
siaNorth
America
Caribbea
nCent
ral Americ
aSout
h Americ
aNorth
Africa
Subsaha
ran Afric
aMidd
le East
International Tourist Arrivals (absolute change 2010 over pre-crisis peak year 2008, million)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
-3.1
2.9
-6.3 -2.8
10.8 7.90.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.7 1.4 2.9 4.2
22.4
1.5
-10-505
1015202530
WorldNorth
ern Euro
peWest
ern Euro
peCent
ral/East
ern E...
Souther
n/Medi
ter. Eu.
North-East
AsiaSout
h-East
Asia
Oceania
South A
siaNorth
America
Caribbea
nCent
ral Americ
aSout
h Americ
aNorth
Africa
Subsaha
ran Afric
aMidd
le East
UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts
Better
Equal
Worse
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
T1 T2'03
T3 T1 T2'04
T3 T1 T2'05
T3 T1 T2'06
T3 T1 T2'07
T3 T1 T2'08
T3 T1 T2'09
T3 T1 T2'10
T3 T1 T2'11
T3
Prospects
Evaluation
Confidence confirmed
UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts
Better
Equal
Worse
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) ©
150 144 140 137 132
71
131 138119
144 140 136 143
98
72
140
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Prospects (before)Evaluation (after)
Confidence confirmed
International Tourist Arrivals
8.0
-0.1
3.0
-1.6
10.3
5.4 5.56.6
-4.0
2.1
6.7
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 2010* 2011*
Forecast 2011: 4% to 5%
Outlook 2011ch
ange
(%)
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
2010 Forecast 2011
World +6.7% 4% to 5%
Europe +3.2% 2% to 4%
Asia and the Pacific +12.6% 7% to 9%
Americas +7.7% 4% to 6%
Africa +6.4% 4% to 7%
Middle East +13.9% 7% to 10%
International Tourism 2011 –Forecast
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
International Tourist Arrivals
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
millio
n
Tourism 2020 Vision forecastActual 1995-2010*
1.0 bn
877 mn
1.6 bn
Actual Trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision ForecastWorld
534 mn
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
935 mn
John KesterTourism Trends and Marketing Strategies Programme
Thank you very much for your attention!
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
www.unwto.org