unlocking private sector investment in climate-smart ... · pathways for partnering • use the...
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Why should business care?
PRODUCTIVITYFeeding 9 Billion People in 2050
FoodDemandByCommodi6esin2050rela6veto2005---07(Billionkgperyear)
1 FoodProduc6onbyRegion1972---2050(Constant2004---06US$)
Asia
NorthAmerica
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1972
1982
1992
2002
2012
2030
2050
La6nAmerica
AfricaOceania
Europe
CEA2013basedonFAO2012 Sadler, M. 2015. The Role of Resilient Supply Chains in the Face of Climate Change
Sadler, M. 2015. The Role of Resilient Supply Chains in the Face of Climate Change
ADAPTATIONClimateChangeImpactsonFoodSystems
ProblemsToday:ShortTermVola-lity
Recentpricespikesforfoodcommodi6eshavebeenlinkedtoextremeweatherevents
IssuesTomorrow:MediumTermYieldLossesand
IncreasingCostStructuresMaizeandwheatyieldsshowclimateimpacts
UncertainFuture:Produc-onCollapsein
theLongerTermMaizeandwheatyieldsshowclimateimpacts
2a
CCAFS2014;WorldBank2008
ProblemsToday:ShortTermVola-lity
IssuesTomorrow:MediumTermYieldLossesandIncreasingCost
Structures
UncertainFuture:Produc-on
CollapseintheLongerTerm
Sadler, M. 2015. The Role of Resilient Supply Chains in the Face of Climate Change
LONGERTERMDisappearingSupplyChains
AreassuitableforCocoaproduc6oninIvoryCoast,today(top)andin2030(bo\om)
TODAY
Corn
Beeffrom2009---2014:+100%
MEDIUMTERMIncreasingCostStructure
Thepriceforbeefliveweightincreasingsteadilyduetopressurefromfeedandpasturelandmarkets
• Beefisanexampleofacommoditywheresupplyhascomeunderpressurebecauseofthescarcityofunderlyingresources
Apricehikeincorn(black)drivesdownthesharepriceofTysonFoods(red)
Tyson’s
• Vola6lecommoditypricescanhaveveryrealimpactsonbusiness–andshareprices
SHORTTERMPriceVola6lityImpactsShares
ADAPTATIONClimateChangeImpactsonFoodCompanies2b
Shortterm:PriceVola-lityImpactsShares
Longerterm:DisappearingSupplyChains
Mediumterm:IncreasingCost
Structure
2030
Foodcompaniesmustbuildresilienceatthefarmerlevelthroughsupplychaindevelopment(increasinglyindevelopingcountries)
Sadler, M. 2015. The Role of Resilient Supply Chains in the Face of Climate Change
EMISSIONSGe lng AheadoftheLegisla6vePush
Source–2015GlobalClimateLegislaRonStudybyGlobe
3 EMISIONSGeSngaheadofthelegisla6vepush
ChallengeBuildfoodsystemsthatmeetincreasingdemandwhileremainingprofitableandsustainableinthefaceofClimateChange.
TheBo\omLine–ClimateSmartAgriculture(CSA)ChallengeandResponse
Canitbedone?Yes,butweneedtoconnectClimateChangewiththeboOomlineoffoodbusinessandunderstandwherepublicsupportisneededtocatalyzeac-on.
How?Buildresilienceatthefarmerlevelandalongthesupplychain
Why does business care?
Drivers for CSA investments
SUPPLYSTABILITY
REPUTATIONALRISKS
Shareholder/customerpressureBuyerrequirementsLicensetooperateLegalcomplianceNGOadvocacy
Co-fundingopportuniResAvoidedregulaRonImprovedlegislaRonImprovedstakeholderrelaRonsCostsavings
GeneralDriversforSustainabilityandCSRinvestments
Entry points vary for different companies
WATER RISK
DEFORESTATION SUPPLY STABILITY REPUTATION
LEGAL COMPLIANCE
COMMUNITY CONFLICT
MICRO-CLIMATE
Key pathways for USAID to partner with business
Pathways for partnering • Use the right language: Secure private sector commitments to
smallholder CSA by framing the discussion in business terms • Make knowledge actionable: Work with private companies to
develop and implement CSA action plans based on climate science
• Facilitate learning: Connect innovators across countries, commodities, market conditions and scales to learn what works where, for whom and under what conditions
• Identify leverage points for investments: Where do business interests and international development goals intersect.
A tailored approach
First Movers
Committed but Confused
Lightly Engaged CDP reporting
Dow Jones Ranking S&CSR Reporting
External Goals
Notable progress against goals
CEO champion
NGO collaboration
S&CSR as pre-competitive
Scope 3 supply goals
Supplier partnerships S&CSR as competitive
Landscape & sector collaborations
Beyond certifications
Supplier requirements
Public leadership / advocacy
MaptheimpactgradienttounderstandtheriskofclimatechangeoverRme
Convenevaluechainactorsalongtheexposuregradient
IdenRfyandprioriRzerelevantCSApracRcesbyexposuregradientandanalyzecostsandbenefits.
Constructexposurespecificpor^oliosofpriorityCSApracRcesfordifferentinvestors
AreasthattransiRonfromonesuitabilitytypetoanotherbutremainsuitable
TailoredCSAinvestmentplans
LocaRonswhereclimatecharacterisRcswillnotfundamentallychange
ProducRoninthesezoneswilllikelybecomeunviableandothercropsshouldbeconsidered
1.Understandtherisk 2.Makesenseofdata
3.Whatcanwedoandhowmuchwillitcostus?
4.Developcropandsitespecificinvestmentstrategies
Private Sector Engagement in CSA A consortium BAA project to: • Engage global private sector: Learn how to frame CSA as a
business issue, identify key information needs and language, build partnerships and select 3-4 pilots :: Sustainable Food Lab
• Make science actionable: Regional climate risk mapping, CSA practice menus, cost benefit analysis, enterprise level assessment tool for CSA implementation and M&E Toolkit on climate resilience :: CIAT, IITA, Root Capital
• A learning community: Webinars, regional fora and USAID mission meetings & support :: Sustainable Food Lab
www.feedthefuture.gov