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University of Hawai’i at Manoa
Forecasting Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo) Using Non-Linear Autoregressive (NAR)
Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
Presented By:Ahmed Afifi
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Introduction
Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) were used to forecast reference Evapotranspiration (ETo)
Three RNN approaches are used:
1. Univariate time series
2. Multivariate single-step model time series
3. Multivariate multi-step model time series
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Three RNN Models
Univariate time series Trains a model using only a single feature (ETo). Predicts
a single timestep.Multivariate single-step model time series Trains a model using multiple features. Predicts a single
timestep. Multivariate multi-step model time series Trains a model using multiple features. Predicts multiple
timestep.
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Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo)
What is ETo?
ETo is the evaporating power of the atmosphere
ETo is only affected by climactic conditions
Example: wind speed, humidity, solar radiation, and precipitation
Penman-Monteith
)34.01())()273(900()(408.0
0 UeeUTGR
ET asn
++∆−++−∆
=γγ
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Factors Limiting Accuracy
Moist air travels 800 miles from the Gulf of Mexico to Nebraska
Other factors: Changing freeze-free season Hurricane remnants Arctic Air Blizzards, especially in the great plains
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Why use RNNs to forecast ETo?
Hydrologic time-series (especially ETo) are often non-linear with irregularities and noise
RNNs are usually superior than traditional statistical approaches for analyzing non-linear timeseries
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Benefits and Uses
To calculate Evapotranspiration (ET) and Crop Evapotranspiration (ETc )
ETc = Kc Eto
• By the accurate forecast of ETc, a more efficient irrigationschedule can be achieved
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Data
For future research, six weather stations in Nebraska areselected in different hydrological and vegetative conditions toevaluate the model robustness in different environments
Only Mead weather station was chosen for this project
Stations record daily solar radiation, air temperature, windspeed, relative humidity, precipitation, and soil temperature
The measurements are available on the High Plains RegionalClimate Center (HPRCC) archive from 1994 to 2016
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Data
1
Champion StationElevation: 1029 mRn: 15.5 MJ/m2
U: 3.5 m/sTmax: 18.4 °CTmin: 1.4 °C
McCook StationElevation: 792 mRn: 15.5 MJ/m2
U: 3.5 m/sTmax : 18.9 °CTmin : 3.4 °C
North Platte StationElevation: 861 mRn: 15.1 MJ/m2
U: 2.6 m/sTmax : 18.0 °CTmin : 2.4 °C
Mead StationElevation: 366 mRn: 13.5 MJ/m2
U: 3.3 m/sTmax : 13.5 °CTmin : 3.5 °C
Dunning StationElevation: 824 mRn: 14.7 MJ/m2
U: 4.5 m/sTmax : 16.5 °CTmin : 2.3 °CAlliance Station
Elevation: 1213 mRn: 15.1 MJ/m2
U: 4.0 m/sTmax : 16.5 °CTmin : 0.8 °C
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Data
Co-relations were observed using scatter plots
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Calibration and TrainingUni-variate
100 days are used to forecast 1 day ahead
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Calibration and TrainingMulti-variate Single-step 100 days are used to
forecast 1 day ahead
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Calibration and TrainingMulti-variate Multi-step 100 days are used to
forecast 7 day ahead
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References
Link to my RNN https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1jKPjVs6Q6aXDL_7nIP-jNVQ5eZ4NyOoS
“Keras : TensorFlow Core.” TensorFlow, https://www.tensorflow.org/guide/keras.
Brownlee, Jason. “Time Series Prediction with LSTM Recurrent Neural Networks in Python with Keras.” Machine Learning Mastery, 5 Aug. 2019, https://machinelearningmastery.com/time-series-prediction-lstm-recurrent-neural-networks-python-keras/.
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Thank You
Any Questions?