university of groningen radon generation and …surprwru= suri1 gu1 u1m1 gh phlmhu uhihuhq=w gu1 h1...

University of Groningen

Radon generation and transportCozmuta, Ioana

IMPORTANT NOTE: You are advised to consult the publisher's version (publisher's PDF) if you wish to cite fromit. Please check the document version below.

Document VersionPublisher's PDF, also known as Version of record

Publication date:2001

Link to publication in University of Groningen/UMCG research database

Citation for published version (APA):Cozmuta, I. (2001). Radon generation and transport: a journey through matter. s.n.

CopyrightOther than for strictly personal use, it is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of theauthor(s) and/or copyright holder(s), unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons).

Take-down policyIf you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediatelyand investigate your claim.

Downloaded from the University of Groningen/UMCG research database (Pure): http://www.rug.nl/research/portal. For technical reasons thenumber of authors shown on this cover page is limited to 10 maximum.

Download date: 17-11-2020

https://www.rug.nl/research/portal/en/publications/radon-generation-and-transport(af50a53c-c463-4d14-b277-84b0b9fb9541).html

https://www.rug.nl/research/portal/en/publications/radon-generation-and-transport(af50a53c-c463-4d14-b277-84b0b9fb9541).html

��

��

� ��

��

��

$i�"H Vwlfkwlqj guxnnhulm FURPDWLFD SUHVV/ Edld Pduh/ Urpdqld

+Wak5N�WV,+5WA,WA B+��W�B,�

��

��

� ��

��

��

�hLiutU�h�u|

whu yhunulmjlqj ydq khw grfwruddw lq gh

Zlvnxqgh hq Qdwxxuzhwhqvfkdsshqddq gh Ulmnvxqlyhuvlwhlw Jurqlqjhq

rs jh}dj ydq gh

Uhfwru Pdjql�fxv/ gu1 G1I1M1 Ervvfkhu/lq khw rshqeddu wh yhughgljhq rs

yulmgdj : ghfhpehu 5334rp 47148 xxu

grru

WL@?@ �L34�|@

jheruhq rs 7 mxol 4<:6wh Edld Pduh/ Urhphqld1

Surprwru= Suri1 gu1 U1M1 gh PhlmhuUhihuhqw= Gu1 H1 U1 ydq ghu Juddi

Ehrrugholqjvfrpplvvlh= Suri1 gu1 lu1 N1 ydq Euhxjho

Suri1 lu1 Q1 D1 KhqgulnvSuri1 gu1 K1 Orhkqhu

Y7�� <:6 0 ;466 0 ; 0 9

�L?|i?|t

4 Lqwurgxfwlrq 44

414 Udgrq uhvhdufk dqg srolf| 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 48

41414 Udgrq edfnjurxqg 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 48

41415 Vrxufhv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4:

41416 Frxqwhuphdvxuhv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4;

41417 Gxwfk srolf| rq udgrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4<

41418 Udgldwlrq Shuirupdqfh Lqgh{ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 54

41419 Suhvhqw dssurdfk 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 56

415 Dlp dqg rxwolqh ri wklv wkhvlv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 58

41514 Dlp 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 58

41515 Rxwolqh 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 59

5 Frqfuhwh surshuwlhv 5<

514 Lqwurgxfwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5<

515 Fhphqw= pdqxidfwxuh dqg frpsrvlwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 64

51514 Eodvwixuqdfh Sruwodqg Fhphqwv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 65

516 Djjuhjdwh surshuwlhv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 67

517 K|gudwlrq ri fhphqw 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 68

518 Plfurvwuxfwxuh ri frqfuhwh 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6<

519 Zdwhu frqwhqw ri frqfuhwh 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 76

51: Uhodwlyh yroxphv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 78

51; Wudqvsruw surshuwlhv ri frqfuhwh 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 83

8

9 Frqwhqwv

6 Frqfuhwh prghoolqj 86

614 Lqwurgxfwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 86

615 Pxowlfrpsrqhqw khdw0k|gudwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 87

616 Plfurvwuxfwxudo ghyhorsphqw prgho 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8:

617 Prlvwxuh wudqvsruw prgho 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 94

61714 Prlvwxuh wudqvsruw htxdwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 96

61715 Prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 98

61716 Prlvwxuh frqgxfwlylw| 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 9;

618 Frqfuhwh dv d frpsrvlwh srurxv phglxp 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 :4

7 Gl�xvlrq ri udgrq lq frqfuhwh :6

714 Lqwurgxfwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 :6

715 Edvlf odzv ri wudqvsruw dqg ghvfulswlrq ri d srurxv phglxp 1 1 1 1 :7

716 Udgrq0uhodwhg fkdudfwhulvwlfv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ::

717 Pxowl0skdvh wlph0ghshqghqw udgrq gl�xvlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 :<

718 Frqvrolgdwhg dqg xqfrqvrolgdwhg srurxv phgld 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ;4

8 Olwhudwxuh lqirupdwlrq ;:

814 Lqwurgxfwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ;:

815 Lqirupdwlrq rq udgrq uhohdvh 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ;;

81514 Udglxp frqfhqwudwlrq dqg hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw 1 1 1 1 1 1 ;<

81515 Fhphqw w|sh/ zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr dqg fxulqj wlph 1 1 1 1 1 1 <4

81516 Kxplglw| dqg whpshudwxuh frqglwlrqlqj 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 <5

81517 Djh 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 <7

816 Lqirupdwlrq rq udgrq eduulhuv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 <8

9 Qxphulfdo surfhgxuhv 434

914 Lqwurgxfwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 434

915 Udgrq wudqvsruw 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 435

916 Frqfuhwh prghoolqj 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 437

917 Frxsolqj ri prghov 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 43:

: H{shulphqwdo surfhgxuhv 43<

:14 Lqwurgxfwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 43<

:15 QJG0NYL udgrq0uhohdvh udwh vhwxs 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 443

:1514 Ghvfulswlrq ri wkh vhwxs 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 443

:1515 Phdvxuhphqw surfhgxuhv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 445

:1516 Fdofxodwlrqdo surfhgxuhv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 446

:

:1517 Dffxudf| ri wkh phdvxuhphqw phwkrg 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 453

:16 Jdppd0ud| vshfwurphwu| 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 456

:17 Udgrq0hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 457

:18 Srurvlphwhu 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 458

:1814 Ghvfulswlrq dqg phdvxuhphqw sulqflsoh 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 459

:1815 Rswlplvdwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 45:

:1816 Fdoleudwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 45<

:1817 Phdvxuhphqw surfhgxuh iru exloglqj pdwhuldo vdpsohv 1 1 1 463

; Frqfuhwh uhflsh> frpsrqhqwv dqg pl{wxuhv 466

;14 Lqwurgxfwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 466

;15 Frqfuhwh uhflsh dqg vdpsohv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 467

;1514 Udglrphwulf surshuwlhv 0lqlwldo dvvhvvphqw 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 468

;16 Frpsrqhqwv surshuwlhv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 469

;17 Pl{wxuhv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 474

< Plfurvwuxfwxudo lqirupdwlrq 478

<14 Lqwurgxfwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 478

<15 Lqsxw sdudphwhuv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 479

<16 Ghfuhdvh lq zdwhu frqwhqw iru ydulrxv vdpsohv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 483

<1614 Fhphqw sdvwh fxeh 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 484

<1615 Pruwdu0vdqg fxeh 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 486

<1616 Frqfuhwh fxeh 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 487

<17 Srurvlw| dqg sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 48:

<18 Prlvwxuh sur�ohv dqg wkhlu wlph hyroxwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 494

<19 Frqfoxvlrqv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 497

43 Udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq frqfuhwh 49:

4314 Lqwurgxfwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 49:

4315 Uhfwdqjxodu2fxelfdo jhrphwu| 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 49;

4316 F|olqgulfdo jhrphwu| 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4:6

4317 Prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh ri wkh udgrq gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4:<

4318 Glvfxvvlrq dqg frqfoxvlrqv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4;4

44 Udgrq uhohdvh udwhv 4;8

4414 Lqwurgxfwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4;8

4415 Wlph ghshqghqfh ri H6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4;9

4416 Prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh ri H6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4<3

; Frqwhqwv

441614 NYL h{shulphqwdo vwxg| 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4<3

441615 Prghoolqj 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4<4

4417 Frqfoxvlrqv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 537

45 Uhgxfwlrq e| vxuidfh fryhulqj 53:

4514 Lqwurgxfwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 53:

4515 Fryhuv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 53;

4516 Uhvxowv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 543

4517 Glvfxvvlrqv dqg frqfoxvlrqv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 546

46 Prohfxodu prghoolqj ri sro|phulf phpeudqhv 548

4614 Lqwurgxfwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 548

4615 Vdpsoh frqvwuxfwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 54;

461514 H{dpsoh 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 54<

4616 Vroxelolw| fdofxodwlrqv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 555

4617 Gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 557

4618 Dvvhvvphqw 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 55:

4619 Frqfoxvlrqv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 563

47 Frqfoxvlrqv dqg jhqhudo glvfxvvlrq 568

4714 Lqwurgxfwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 568

4715 Ryhuylhz ri wkh uhvxowv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 569

471514 Udglrphwu| 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 569

471515 Vwuxfwxudo surshuwlhv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 56:

471516 Wudqvsruw surshuwlhv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 56;

471517 Uhgxfwlrq e| vxuidfh fryhulqj 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 56<

4716 Lpsolfdwlrqv rq lqgrru udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 573

471614 Prgho fdofxodwlrqv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 573

471615 USL fdofxodwlrqv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 576

4717 Frqfoxvlrqv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 579

4718 Ixwxuh ghyhorsphqw 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 57:

Dsshqglfhv 584

D Dqdo|wlfdo vroxwlrqv uhfwdqjxodu 584

D14 Krprjhqhrxv Glulfkohw erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 585

D1414 4G vroxwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 585

D1415 5G vroxwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 586

<

D1416 6G vroxwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 588D15 Krprjhqhrxv pl{hg erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 58;

D1514 4G vroxwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 58<D1515 5G vroxwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 58<

D1516 6G vroxwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 594D16 Wuxqfdwlrq huuru 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 597

E 4G dqdo|wlfdo vroxwlrq iru d kroorz f|olqgulfdo vdpsoh 5:4

F Pdwkhpdwlfdo uhodwlrqv 5:8

F14 K|shuerolf ixqfwlrqv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5:8

F15 Htxdolwlhv dqg lqhtxdolwlhv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5:9F16 Xvhixo lqwhjudov 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5:9

F17 Ehvvho ixqfwlrqv 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5::

F18 Irupxod iru huuru fdofxodwlrq 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5::

G Dqdo|wlfdo sur�ohv iru d srvlwlrq0ghshqghqw prlvwxuh frqwhqw 5:<

G14 ]hur0erxqgdu| prlvwxuh frqwhqw 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5:<G15 Qrq0}hur erxqgdu| prlvwxuh frqwhqw 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5;4

Eleolrjudsk| 5;5

Qhghuodqgvh vdphqydwwlqj 5<:

Lq Forvlqj111 634

�

W?|hL_�U|�L?

Lq wkh odvw wzr ghfdghv/ dlu srooxwlrq kdv ehfrph dq lvvxh ri juhdw lqwhuhvw qrwrqo| d�hfwlqj wkh qdwxudo htxloleulxp ri wkh elrvskhuh/ exw dovr kxpdq khdowk lw0vhoi1 D jurzlqj erg| ri vflhqwl�f hylghqfh lqglfdwhv wkdw wkh dlu zlwklq uhvlghqfhv/r�fhv dqg rwkhu qrq0lqgxvwuldo exloglqjv fdq eh pruh vhulrxvo| srooxwhg wkdq wkhrxwgrru dlu/ vhwwlqjv wkdw wudglwlrqdoo| kdyh ehhq qhjohfwhg e| srooxwlrq0frqwurodjhqflhv1 Dv shrsoh suhvhqwo| vshqg dssur{lpdwho| <3( ri wkhlu wlph lqgrruv/wkh khdowk ulvnv lqfxuuhg e| euhdwklqj lqgrru dlu fdq vljql�fdqwo| h{fhhg wkhjhqhudo olplwv ri ulvn lpsrvhg e| ydulrxv uhjxodwlrqv1 Wkh lqgrru0dlu srooxwdqwvduh vlplodu lq qdwxuh wr wkrvh h{lvwlqj rxwgrruv dqg lq vrph fdvhv dfwxdoo| wkh|ruljlqdwh iurp rxwgrru vrxufhv1 \hw wkhlu hohydwhg frqfhqwudwlrqv duh fdxvhg e|wkhlu hplvvlrq lqwr d vpdoohu dqg ohvv yhqwlodwhg yroxph/ wkh lqgrru dwprvskhuh1Kljk whpshudwxuhv dqg kxplglw| ohyhov fdq dovr dfw lq dfwlydwlrq dqg lqfuhdvlqjwkh frqfhqwudwlrqv ri vrph srooxwdqwv1

Wkhuh duh pdq| vrxufhv ri lqgrru0dlu srooxwlrq lq dq| krph/ qrw rqo| ghshqg0lqj rq wkh krxvhkrog exw dovr rq wkh jurxqg rq zklfk wkh krxvhv vlw dqg rq wkhw|sh ri exloglqj pdwhuldov xvhg iru wkhlu frqvwuxfwlrq1 Frpexvwlrq vrxufhv/ surg0xfwv iru krxvhkrog fohdqlqj dqgpdlqwhqdqfh/ fhqwudo khdwlqj dqg frrolqj v|vwhpv/

44

45 Lqwurgxfwlrq

dvehvwrv0frqwdlqlqj lqvxodwlrq/ kxplgl�fdwlrq ghylfhv dqg hyhq wkh surgxfwv riolylqj rujdqlvpv ru wkh rujdqlvpv wkhpvhoyhv +edfwhuld/ ixqjl/ krxvh plwhv, duhrqo| d ihz pruh vshfl�f h{dpsohv1 Ydulrxv srooxwdqwv fruuhvsrqg wr wkhvh vrxufhv=uhvsludeoh sduwlfohv +dhurvrov,/ fljduhwwh vprnh/ fduerq dqg qlwurjhq r{lghv/ wudfhrujdqlf fkhplfdov/ yrodwloh rujdqlf frpsrxqgv/ udgrq/ hwf1 Wkh uhodwlyh lpsru0wdqfh ri dq| vlqjoh vrxufh ghshqgv rq krz pxfk ri d jlyhq srooxwdqw lw hplwv dqgkrz kd}dugrxv wkrvh hplvvlrqv duh1 D eurdg udqjh ri khdowk ulvnv fruuhvsrqgv wrwkh zlgh udqjh ri srooxwdqw w|shv dqg frqfhqwudwlrqv1 Vrph srooxwdqwv duh srwhq0wldo fduflqrjhqlf dqg rwkhuv ohdg wr fkurqlf ru dfxwh glvhdvhv vxfk dv uhvsludwru|lqihfwlrqv dqg doohujlf uhvsrqvhv1 \hw/ qrw lq doo fdvhv d zhoo0gh�qhg uhodwlrqehwzhhq d jlyhq h{srvxuh wr dq lqgrru srooxwdqw dqg dq dvvrfldwhg khdowk h�hfwh{lvwv/ prvw ri wkh wlph wkh odwwhu fdq qrw eh fohduo| dwwulexwhg wr d vshfl�f fdxvh/hqylurqphqwdo ru rwkhuzlvh1 Dw wkhlu ehvw/ vwxglhv fdq rqo| r�hu d suredelolw|zlwk zklfk d glvhdvh fdq dsshdu lq wkh jhqhudo srsxodwlrq gxh wr d fhuwdlq sro0oxwdqw1 Krzhyhu/ dowkrxjk iru vrph fdvhv wkh fruuhodwlrqv duh vwurqjhu wkdq irurwkhuv dqg prvwo| suryhq rqo| iru kljkhu frqfhqwudwlrq ohyhov/ rqh vkrxog uhjdugwkh lqgrru0dlu txdolw| frqwuro sureohp dv rqh lq zklfk ydulrxv srooxwdqwv lqwhudfwlq d v|qhujlvwlf pdqqhu wr jhqhudwh d khdowk glvrughu1

Udgrq lv wkh pdmru srooxwdqw lq lqgrru dlu lq prvw Hxurshdq frxqwulhv1 Diwhulwv uhfrjqlwlrq dv dq lpsruwdqw khdowk ulvn� lq wkh ehjlqqlqj ri wkh 4<;3*v/ uhvhdufksurmhfwv rq zd|v wr uhgxfh wklv ulvn kdyh ehhq vwduwhg lq prvw frxqwulhv1 Rqh riwkh �uvw txhvwlrqv uhodwhg wr lqgrru udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv frqfhuqv wkh vwuhqjwkri gl�huhqw vrxufhv= vrlo/ exloglqj pdwhuldov/ rxwgrru dlu hwf1 Wkh lpsruwdqfhri wkhvh vrxufhv gl�huv qrw rqo| zlwk wkh w|sh ri gzhoolqj exw dovr shu frxqwu|+ ^95`/ ^4;`,1

Lqlwldoo|/ wkh vlwxdwlrq zlwk uhvshfw wr udgrq lq wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ wkh Gxwfksrolf| rq udgrq dqg lwv jrdov zhuh irupxodwhg lq dq lqwhuqdo uhsruw ri wkh Plqlvwu|ri YURP +Gxwfk dfurq|p iru Krxvlqj/ Sk|vlfdo Sodqqlqj dqg Hqylurqphqw, ^8`edvhg rq wkh uhvxowv ri wkh �uvw qdwlrqdo Gxwfk vxuyh| VDZRUD +4<;504<;9, dqgri wkh iroorz0xs surjudp UHQD +4<;:04<<3,1 Wkh Gxwfk vxuyh| lqglfdwhg dqgdyhudjh lqgrru udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq2 ri 55Etp3�/ uhodwlyho| orz zlwk uhvshfw wrrwkhu frxqwulhv/ dqg dq rxwgrru frqfhqwudwlrq ri 6Etp3�1 Wkh iroorz0xs sur0judp UHQD irfxvvhg rq lghqwli|lqj wkh vrxufhv/ prghoolqj ri udgrq hqwu| lqwr

�W? |�i �i|�ih*@?_t ��ihi h@_L? UL?Ui?|h@|�L?t @hi hi*@|��i*) *L�c h@_L? �t it|�4@|i_ |L�?_�Ui @ML�| Hff E2ff��eff� u@|@* *�?} U@?Uiht Tih )i@h @4L?} |�i �S 4�**�L? �?�@M�|@?|t d�eDo�

2A�i �?�|�@* �@*�i �@t 2b �^43� M�| UL?|@�?i_ @ t)t|i4@|�U �?t|h�4i?|@* ihhLh Lu @ML�|. �^43� d�f�o�

46

krxvhv dqg vhdufklqj iru phdqv wr orzhu wkh udgldwlrq ulvnv1 Iurp wkh �uvw vxuyh|vhyhudo gzhoolqjv zlwk kljk udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv zhuh vhohfwhg dqg lqyhvwljdwhgdjdlq/ dv zhoo dv qhljkerxulqj +lghqwlfdo, krxvhv iru frpsdulvrq1 Wkhvh phdvxuh0phqwv vkrzhg wkdw kljk lqgrru0udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv rffxu lq krxvhv zlwk kljkudgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv lq wkh fudzo vsdfh ^435`1

Wr rewdlq pruh nqrzohgjh derxw wkh lq�owudwlrq surfhvvhv lqvwuxphqwv zhuhghyhorshg dw wkh NYL +Nhuqi|vlvfk Yhuvqhoohu Lqvwlwxxw, iru vkruw0whup lq0vlwxphdvxuhphqwv ri udgrq h{kdodwlrq iurp pdwhuldov dqg wlph0ghshqghqw udgrqfrqfhqwudwlrqv lq dlu1 Wkhvh lqvwuxphqwv zhuh dssolhg lq dq h{whqvlyh vwxg|rq udgrq lq�owudwlrq lq d uhvhdufk krxvh ^47`1 Wlph0ydu|lqj dqg suhvvxuh0gulyhqudgrq0vrxufh vwuhqjwkv zhuh revhuyhg hvshfldoo| lq wkh fudzo0vsdfh1 Pruhryhu lwzdv irxqg wkdw exloglqj pdwhuldov frqwulexwhg prvw wr wkh lqgrru0udgrq frqfhq0wudwlrq1 Ryhusuhvvxuh lq wkh krxvh uhgxfhg wkh lqgrru0udgrq ohyhov wr dpelhqwrxwgrru frqfhqwudwlrqv1 Wkh qdwxuh ri wkh sk|vlfdo surfhvvhv uhvsrqvleoh iruwkh wlph0ydu|lqj ehkdylrxu frxog qrw eh lghqwl�hg frpsohwho| dqg lw zdv uhfrp0phqghg wr h{dplqh lq ixuwkhu ghwdlo wkh phfkdqlvpv wkdw jryhuq udgrq wudqvsruwlq srurxv phgld1

Rqh ri wkh lqlwldo dlpv ri wkh Gxwfk jryhuqphqw zdv wr uhgxfh wkh udgrq frq0fhqwudwlrq lq qhz dqg h{lvwlqj krxvhv wr dq dyhudjh ri 53Etp3�1 Wr dfklhyh wklvdlp uhjxodwlrqv rq erwk/ exloglqj sudfwlfh dqg exloglqj pdwhuldov zhuh lqwhqghgwr eh lvvxhg1

Xs wr qrz wkh jryhuqphqw doorfdwhg prvw ri lwv dydlodeoh uhvrxufhv wr uh0vhdufk rq phdvxuhv gluhfwhg djdlqvw udgrq lq�owudwlrq iurp wkh vrlo xqghu wkhkrxvh1 Wkh ixqgdphqwdo uhdvrq zdv wkh eholhi wkdw vrlo jdv udgrq lv wkh pdlqfrqwulexwru +:3(, wr lqgrru udgrq1 Lq wklv iudphzrun/ dq h{whqvlyh vwxg| rqudgrq wudqvsruw lq vdqg zdv shuiruphg dw wkh NYL ^487`1 Krzhyhu wkh �qglqjv riwzr uhfhqwo| frqgxfwhg uhvhdufk surmhfwv wkdw vwxglhg phdvxuhv wr uhgxfh hqwu|iurp udgrq ruljlqdwlqj iurp wkh vrlo srlqwhg rxw iru wkh qhhg ri d uhylvlrq1 Lqwkh Vwudwhjr 4: surmhfw ^44<` dq dyhudjh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq ri 76Etp3� zdvphdvxuhg lq fudzo vsdfhv ri 4:8 krxvhv1 Lq d NYL surmhfw rq wkh h�hfwlyhqhvv ri dvxe0irlo yhqwlodwlrq v|vwhp lq uhgxflqj vrlo jdv udgrq hqwu| dq dyhudjh fudzo vsdfhfrqfhqwudwlrq ri derxw 73Etp3� zdv irxqg ^484`1 Pruhryhu lq wkh vhfrqg Gxwfkqdwlrqdo vxuyh| rq udgrq lq gzhoolqjv ^86` dq dyhudjh frqfhqwudwlrq +derxw 4333fudzo vsdfhv, ri :3Etp3� zdv irxqg ^469`1 Wkhvh frqfhqwudwlrqv duh d idfwru 70:orzhu wkdq wkh frqfhqwudwlrq +633Etp3�, wkdw kdv lq wkh sdvw ehhq dvvxphg wreh uhsuhvhqwdwlyh iru Gxwfk fudzo vsdfhv�1 Wklv cklvwrulfdo* ydoxh ri 633Etp3�

�A�i �@*�i Lu �ff �^43� uLh |�i UL?Ui?|h@|�L? Lu |�i Uh@�* tT@Ui �t @? it|�4@|i_ �@*�i @t

47 Lqwurgxfwlrq

kdv dovr ehhq rqh ri wkh lqsxw sdudphwhuv iru fdofxodwlrqv wkdw ohg wr wkh hvwlpdwhwkdw :3( ri wkh lqgrru udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq vwhpv iurp wkh vrlo1 Xvlqj wkh uhfhqwgdwd iru fudzo vsdfh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv hvwlpdwhv zrxog jlyh d 43053( frqwul0exwlrq iurp wkh vrlo zkloh prvw ri wkh uhpdlqlqj ;30<3( ruljlqdwhv iurp exloglqjpdwhuldov1 Iurp wkh frpelqhg udgrq dqg dlu yhqwlodwlrq phdvxuhphqwv lq wkhvhfrqg Gxwfk udgrq vxuyh| ULYP ghgxfhg wkdw iru wkhvh gzhoolqjv +derxw 4333,wkh vrxufhv iru udgrq lq wkh olylqj urrp zhuh= fudzo vsdfh +48(,> rxwvlgh dlu+48(, dqg exloglqj pdwhuldov +:3(, + ^:`/ ^469`,1 Lqirupdwlrq rq wkh qxpehuri lqyhvwljdwhg gzhoolqjv dv zhoo dv phdvxuhg udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv lq wkh olylqjurrp/ ehgurrp dqg fudzo vsdfh ruljlqdwlqj iurp wkh wzr qdwlrqdo udgrq vxuyh|vfrqgxfwhg lq wkh Qhwkhuodqgv + ^435`/ ^436`/ ^469`, lv frpslohg lq Wdeoh 4141

Wdeoh 414= W?uLh4@|�L? L? @�ih@}i h@_L? UL?Ui?|h@|�L?t �? #�|U� _�i**�?}t uhL4 |�i |�L

?@|�L?@* h@_L? t�h�i)t�

4<;7 4<<9qxpehu ri gzhoolqjv ;<7 ;85|hdu ri frqvwuxfwlrq 4<3304<;7 4<;804<<6

frqf1 olylqj urrp +Etp3�, 55 5;frqf1 ehgurrp +Etp3�, 49 5:frqf1 fudzo vsdfh +Etp3�, 633 :4

Wkhvh fkdqjhg lqvljkwv frqfhuqlqj wkh uroh ri udgrq hqwu| yld wkh fudzo vsdfhkdv irufhg wkh Gxwfk jryhuqphqw wr uhwklqn lwv srolf| rq udgrq1 Dw wkh prphqw duhvhdufk surjudp kdv vwduwhg wr ghyhors d vr0fdoohg cUdgldwlrq Shuirupdqfh Lqgh{+USL,* lqwhqghg wr eh lqfoxghg lq wkh Gxwfk Exloglqj Frgh1 Wklv lv dqdorjrxv wrwkh Gxwfk dssurdfk wrzdugv hqhuj| shuirupdqfh ri exloglqjv zhuh vxfk dq lqgh{lv douhdg| dssolhg1 Wkh USL vkrxog eh fdofxodwhg iru qhzo| wr eh exlow krxvhv rqedvlv ri wkh exloglqj sodqv dqg frpsduhg zlwk d pd{lpxp wrohudeoh ydoxh wkdwkdv |hw wr eh vhw e| wkh jryhuqphqw1 Wkh fdofxodwlrqv vkrxog eh shuiruphg zlwk dvwdqgduglvhg fdofxodwlrq vfkhph dqg kdyh wr lqfoxgh grvh frqwulexwlrqv iurp erwk�0udgldwlrq dqg udgrq + ^56`/ ^453`,1 Rqh ri wkh edvlf lqsxw sdudphwhuv qhhghgwr fdofxodwh wkh USL/ lv wkh udgrq h{kdodwlrq udwh ri wkh exloglqj pdwhuldov wkdwfrqvwlwxwh wkh exloglqj dqg uhtxluhv d vwdqgduglvhg phdvxuhphqw phwkrg ^476`1

Wkh iroorzlqj vhfwlrqv ri wklv fkdswhu zloo jlyh dq ryhuylhz ri uhvxowv dqglqvljkwv rq wkh Gxwfk vlwxdwlrq wkdw iroorzhg iurp wkhvh surmhfwv dqg zloo dovrglvfxvv lq pruh ghwdlo wkh Udgldwlrq Shuirupdqfh Lqgh{1 Wkh lqyhvwljdwlrq suh0

L?*) @ ui� Uh@�* tT@Uit �ihi 4i@t�hi_ �? |�i �bH2 5�`�+� t�h�i)�

414 Udgrq uhvhdufk dqg srolf| 48

vhqwhg lq wklv wkhvlv lv d qdwxudo frqvhtxhqfh ri wkh h�ruwv xqghuwdnhq xs wr nqrzlq wkh udgrq �hog lq wkh Qhwkhuodqg dqg dlpv dw lpsurylqj wkh edvlf nqrzohgjhrq udgrq surgxfwlrq dqg wudqvsruw lq exloglqj pdwhuldov/ zlwk hpskdvlv rq frq0fuhwh1 Wklv zloo idflolwdwh �qglqj zd|v wr uhgxfh wkh udgrq uhohdvh iurp wkhexloglqj pdwhuldov e| fkdqjhv lq surgxfwlrq whfkqltxhv ru e| wkh xvh ri h�hfwlyhfrdwlqjv1

�� +@_L? hiti@hU� @?_ TL*�U)G ��t|Lh�U@* L�ih��i�

@?_ Thiti?| t|@|�t

�� +@_L? M@U!}hL�?_

Udgrq 222Uq lv d qreoh jdv/ wkh gluhfw ghfd| surgxfw ri udglxp 22SUd dqg lv wkhrqo| udglrdfwlyh qrq0vrolg hohphqw lq wkh qdwxudo ghfd| vhulhv xowlpdwho| ruljlqdw0lqj iurp xudqlxp 2�HX +vhh Ilj1 4 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,1 Wkh hohphqw zdvglvfryhuhg lq 4<33 e| Gruq/ zkr fdoohg lw udglxp hpdqdwlrq1 Lq 4<3; Udpvd|dqg Jud|/ zkr qdphg lw qlwrq/ lvrodwhg wkh hohphqw dqg ghwhuplqhg lwv ghqvlw|/�qglqj lw wr eh wkh khdylhvw nqrzq qreoh jdv1 Vlqfh 4<5;/ lw kdv ehhq fdoohgudgrq1

Lw lv d frorxuohvv +dw ruglqdu| whpshudwxuhv, dqg rgrxuohvv jdv dqg/ iurp dfkhplfdo srlqw ri ylhz/ lw lv forvhvw uhodwhg wr wkh qreoh jdv {hqrq/ ��[h1 Wkhuhduh wzhqw| nqrzq lvrwrshv ri udgrq1 Krzhyhu/ wkh rqhv xvxdoo| hqfrxqwhuhg duh/222Uq/ 22fUq dqg 2�bUq/ surgxfhg qdwxudoo| lq wkh ghfd| vhulhv ri 2�HX/ 2�2Wkdqg 2�DX/ uhvshfwlyho|1 D ihz fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkhvh wkuhh lvrwrshv duh olvwhg lqWdeoh 4151

Wdeoh 415= 5L4i ThLTih|�it Lu h@_L? �tL|LTit d�o�

Qxfolgh Dwrplf pdvv Kdoi olih �0hqhujlhv +PhY,

2�bUq 54<133<8 61<9v9=;5+;4(,9=88+44(,9=75+;(,

22fUq 55313447 8819v 915<222Uq 555134:8 61;5g 817<

Wkh ydoxhv lq Wdeoh 415 vkrz wkdw 222Uq kdv wkh orqjhvw kdoi0olih wlph/ wklvsurshuw| doorzv lw wr eh wudqvsruwhg ryhu orqjhu glvwdqfhv +lq dlu ru lq rwkhu

49 Lqwurgxfwlrq

Wdeoh 416= A)T�U@* �h@?��4 UL?Ui?|h@|�L?t �? Uh�t|@* 4@|ih�@*t dSfo� �TT4 2�HN �t i^��@*i?|

|L �2�2D �^ !}3� 2�HN1

Pdwhuldo Judqlwh Vdqgvwrqhv Vkdohv Fduerqdwhv Ghhs vhd fod|v2�HX+ssp, 6 3178 61: 515 416

pdwhuldov, wkdq wkh rwkhu wzr lvrwrshv1 Wkxv/ lw lv pdlqo| 222Uq wkdw lv suhvhqwlq wkh lqgrru dqg rxwgrru hqylurqphqw1 Dv d frqyhqwlrq/ lq olwhudwxuh/ li qrwrwkhuzlvh vshfl�hg/ rqh xvxdoo| uhihuv wr 222Uq zkhq wkh whup udgrq lv phqwlrqhg1Wklv frqyhqwlrq lv dovr dgrswhg wkurxjkrxw wkh suhvhqw wkhvlv1

Wkh xowlpdwh vrxufh ri udgrq lv xudqlxp +2�HX, zklfk lv d qdwxudo hohphqwwkdw pd| eh irxqg lq d ydulhw| ri hduwk0pdwhuldov= vrlo/ judqlwh/ vkdohv/ skrvskdwh/slwfkeohqgh/ hwf1 \hw/ dv lv wkh fdvh iru wkh udgrq lvrwrshv/ xudqlxp 2�HX jhqhudoo|rffxuv lq wudfh dprxqwv +Wdeoh 416,/ lwv dyhudjh fuxvwdo dexqgdqfh ehlqj derxw516 ssp +pj nj3�, ru/ htxlydohqwo|/ 5;Et nj3�1

Iru prvw hduwk0fuxvw pdwhuldov wkh dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv ri doo hohphqwv lqwkh 2�HX ghfd| vhulhv xs wr 22SUd duh htxdo/ fruuhvsrqglqj wr vhfxodu htxloleulxpe1Vhfxodu htxloleulxp lv h�hfwlyho| uhdfkhg diwhu derxw �yh wlphv wkh kdoi olih ri wkhorqjhvw olylqj ghfd| surgxfw surylghg wkdw qr ghfd| surgxfwv hvfdsh iurp wkhpdwhuldo rwkhuzlvh wkdq e| qxfohdu ghfd|1 Dv udgrq lv d jdv/ lw pd| hvfdsh iurpwkh pdwhuldo wkhuhe| glvwruwlqj vhfxodu htxloleulxp ehwzhhq 22SUd dqg 222UqD1 LqWdeoh 417 dq ryhuylhz lv jlyhq ri dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv ri 2�HX222SUd iru ydulrxvhduwk fuxvw pdwhuldov1

Wklv wdeoh vkrzv wkdw/ hyhu|zkhuh zkhuh qdwxudo pdwhuldov 0gluhfwo| ru yldlqgxvwuldo surfhvvlqj0 lqwhuyhqh lq wkh kxpdq kdelwdw/ wkhvh udglrqxfolghv duhsuhvhqw wkxv/ wkhuh lv d srwhqwldo ri h{srvxuh wr wkhlu hplwwhg �0udgldwlrq ru wrudgrq1

Eulh�|/ iru udgrq/ wkh phfkdqlvp ri lwv uhohdvh lv dv iroorzv= dw wkh wlphri ehlqj fuhdwhg lq wkh �0ghfd| ri 22SUd/ wkh udgrq dwrp srvvhvvhv d nlqhwlfhqhuj| ri ;9 nhY +lq dlu/ wklv fruuhvsrqgv wr d uhfrlo udqjh ri 98�p,1 Iru srurxvpdwhuldov +olnh vrlo dqg exloglqj pdwhuldov,/ zlwk wklv hqhuj|/ udgrq dwrpv pd|hqwhu wkhlu sruh vsdfh dqg eh vwrsshg lq dlu1 Dgyhfwlrq dqg gl�xvlrq duh wkhq wkh

e5iU�*@h i^��*�Mh��4 �t it|@M*�t�i_ ��i? |�i �@*u�*�ui Lu |�i T@hi?| h@_�L?�U*�_i �t 4�U�*L?}ih |�@? |�@| Lu |�i _@�}�|ih t�U� |�@|c @u|ih @ Uih|@�? |�4ic |�i @U|��|�it Lu |�i T@hi?| @?__@�}�|ih h@_�L?�U*�_it MiUL4i i^�@*�

D5iU�*@h i^��*�Mh��4 Mi|�ii? 22S+@ @?_ 222+? �t it|@M*�t�i_ @u|ih @ML�| � �ii!t� �i|�ii?h@_L? @?_ �|t t�Lh|�*�ui _iU@) ThL_�U|t tiU�*@h i^��*�Mh��4 �t hi@U�i_ @u|ih @TThL �4@|i*) ��D��

414 Udgrq uhvhdufk dqg srolf| 4:

Wdeoh 417= +@?}it Lu 22S+@�@U|��|) UL?Ui?|h@|�L?t Lu ?@|�h@* h@_�L?�U*�_it �? �@h�L�t ?@|�h@*

ThL_�U|t�

Pdwhuldo 22SUd frqfhqwudwlrqv +Etnj3�,Judqlwh + ^466`/ ^;9`, 43044:Edvdowv + ^466`/ ^<4`, ;066Pdueohv + ^466`/ ^<4`, 3190479

Olphvwrqhv + ^466`/ ^<4`, 507<Vdqgv + ^<4`/ ^493`/ ^44`/ ^;9`/ ^73`, 4057;

Judyhov + ^466`/ ^<4`/ ^493`/ ^73`/ ^44`, 3190463Fod| + ^:7`/ ^<4`, 590<3Vrlo + ^493`/ ^;9`, 4909<

pdlq surfhvvhv e| zklfk udgrq pd| ohdyh wkhvh pdwhuldov dqg hqwhu wkh lqgrrudqg rxwgrru hqylurqphqw1

��2 5L�hUit

Wkh �uvw Gxwfk udgrq vxuyh| lqglfdwhg d qdwlrqdo dyhudjh ydoxh ri 5<Etp3� irulqgrru udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv +fruuhfwhg lq 4<<: wr 55Etp3�, dqg ri 6Etp3�

iru rxwgrruv1 Wkh pdmru vrxufhv ri lqgrru udgrq zhuh hvwlpdwhg e| prgho fdofx0odwlrqv wr eh vrlo +:3(,/ exloglqj pdwhuldov +48(, dqg rxwgrru dlu +48(,1

Wkh vhfrqg Gxwfk udgrq vxuyh|/ zkhuh rqo| krxvhv zlwk |hdu ri exloglqj lqwkh lqwhuydo 4<;804<<6 zhuh lqyhvwljdwhg/ vkrzhg dq dyhudjh lqgrru udgrq frqfhq0wudwlrq ri 5<Etp3�1 Wklv frqfhqwudwlrq zdv derxw 58( kljkhu wkdq wkh dyhudjhri wkh �uvw vxuyh| zlwk 53 wr 73( lqfuhdvh iru wkh frqfhqwudwlrqv lq wkh olylqjurrp dqg ehgurrp/ uhvshfwlyho| +vhh Wdeoh 414,1 Dovr lqfoxghg lq wkh vhfrqg vxu0yh| zhuh phdvxuhphqwv ri dlu h{fkdqjh udwhv ehwzhhq gl�huhqw frpsduwphqwv riwkh krxvhv1 Wkhvh phdvxuhphqwv vkrzhg wkdw udgrq hqwu| yld wkh fudzo vsdfhrqo| frqwulexwhv derxw 48( wr wkh lqgrru udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq dqg frqvhtxhqwo|/wkdw wkh prvw lq�xhqwldo idfwru +:3(, lv frqvwlwxwhg e| wkh exloglqj pdwhuldov/wkh uhplqghu ehlqj fryhuhg e| wkh frqwulexwlrqv iurp rxwgrru dlu +�48(, dqgiurp qdwxudo jdv dqg zdwhu +?4(,1

Wkh h{kdodwlrq udwhv dqg wkh udglxp frqfhqwudwlrqv ri vrph exloglqj pdwh0uldov dv phdvxuhg lq wkh Qhwkhuodqgv +ydoxh dqg xqfhuwdlqw|, wrjhwkhu zlwk wkhfruuhvsrqglqj udqjh iurp olwhudwxuh +lqglfdwhg lq eudfnhwv, duh vxppdulvhg lqWdeoh 4181

4; Lqwurgxfwlrq

Wdeoh 418= 22S+@�@U|��|) UL?Ui?|h@|�L?t @?_ h@_L?�t�hu@Ui i �@*@|�L? h@|it uLh �@h�L�t M��*_�

�?} 4@|ih�@*t @t 4i@t�hi_ �? |�i �i|�ih*@?_t E d�D.oc d��o�� i|�ii? Mh@U!i|t @*tL h@?}it Lu �@*�it

i?UL�?|ihi_ �? |�i �?|ih?@|�L?@* *�|ih@|�hi @hi �?_�U@|i_ E d��oc db�oc db�oc d.eoc d�Sfoc dHSoc defo��

Pdwhuldo 22SUd 22SUq h{kdodwlrq

0 Et nj3� Etp32 k3�

Eulfn 6<6 +45043<, 3150413J|svxp 595 +50648, 3150419Skrvskrj|svxp :3363 +6<50:33, 5180:13Frqfuhwh .Sruwodqg Fhphqw 434 +;0499, 515316

.Eodvwixuqdfh vodj 494 +43053, 61:316.Io| dvk 464 +440:6, 517314

Wkh kljkhvw 22SUd0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv dv phdvxuhg lq wkh Qhwkhuodqg dqgdv irxqg lq olwhudwxuh duh iru skrvskrj|svxp1 Iurp doo frqfuhwh w|shv/ frq0fuhwh pdqxidfwxuhg iurp fhphqw srzghu zlwk d fhuwdlq shufhqwdjh uhsodfhphqwri eodvwixuqdfh vodj +jjev, kdv wkh prvw hohydwhg udglxp dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqdqg dovr udgrq h{kdodwlrq1 Jjev0frqfuhwh lv dovr wkh prvw zlgho| xvhg exloglqjpdwhuldo lq wkh Gxwfk exloglqj sudfwlfh wkxv/ zloo frqvwlwxwh wkh pdlq irfxv rilqyhvwljdwlrqv lq wkh suhvhqw vwxg|1

�� L�?|ih4i@t�hit

Dv d uhvxow ri wkh lqfruuhfw dvvxpswlrq wkdw wkh vrlo lv wkh pdmru vrxufh ri lq0grru udgrq lq Gxwfk gzhoolqjv/ uhvhdufk lqwr frxqwhuphdvxuhv kdv irfxvvhg rqsuhyhqwlqj udgrq hqwu| iurp vrlo lqwr wkh fudzo vsdfh dqg vxevhtxhqw hqwu| iurpfudzo vsdfh wr olylqj duhd1 Lq wkh 4<<3*v wkuhh phdvxuhv +vhohfwhg rq edvlv ri frvwh�hfwlyhqhvv, zhuh vwxglhg=

� hqkdqfhg qdwxudo fudzo vsdfh yhqwlodwlrq

� h{wud vhdolqj ri wkh jurxqg �rru

� dfwlyh vrlo0jdv uhprydo xqghu d irlo vhdolqj wkh fudzo vsdfh �rru1

Wkhvh phdvxuhphqwv zhuh whvwhg e| odujh vfdoh vwxglhv lq vwdqgdug rqh idplo|gzhoolqjv exlow ehwzhhq 4<;8 dqg 4<<81 Iru wkh �uvw wzr phdvxuhv rqo| dq doprvwlqvljql�fdqw uhgxfwlrq +43(, zdv phdvxuhg ri wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq lq wkholylqj urrp ^44<`1 Wkh wklug phdvxuh zdv whvwhg ^47;` lq wzr jurxsv ri gzhoolqjv+vlplodu lq w|sh, vlwxdwhg zlwklq d ihz kxqguhg phwhuv ri hdfk rwkhu dqg vkrzhg wrkdyh qr h�hfw lq wkh �uvw jurxs exw zdv yhu| h�hfwlyh +dyhudjh uhgxfwlrq ri olylqj

414 Udgrq uhvhdufk dqg srolf| 4<

urrp frqfhqwudwlrq zlwklq d idfwru 5, lq wkh vhfrqg jurxs1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw iruvrph gzhoolqjv wkh fudzo vsdfh pd| vwloo eh dq lpsruwdqw vrxufh1 Pruhryhu/ryhu0suhvvxulvdwlrq ri wkh gzhoolqj dqg2ru wkh fudzo vsdfh lv nqrzq wr uhgxfh wkhudgrq frqfhqwudwlrq lq wkh olylqj urrp wr derxw dpelhqw rxwgrru ydoxhv1 Wkhfrqfoxvlrqv iurp wkhvh phdvxuhphqwv frq�up wkh uhvxowv ri Doghqndps dqg Vwrrs^47` lq wkh NYL0uhvhdufk krxvh1 Krzhyhu/ wr vxffhvvixo ghvljq dqg lpsohphqwfrxqwhuphdvxuhv djdlqvw lq�owudwlrq iurp vrlo jdv udgrq/ dq lqglylgxdo wuhdwphqwiru hdfk gl�huhqw fdvh lv uhfrpphqghg1

��e #�|U� TL*�U) L? h@_L?

Wr hvwlpdwh wkh jhqhudo ulvn srvhg e| lqgrru udgrq/ d zhoo hvwdeolvkhg srolf|kdv wr eh ghyhorshg1 Wklv srolf| vkrxog lqfoxgh qrw rqo| wkh grvh fdofxodwlrq/exw vhyhudo dvshfwv ri uhvhdufk/ iurp wkh lghqwl�fdwlrq ri wkh vrxufhv ri udgrqhqwu| dqg wkhlu uhodwlyh lpsruwdqfh wr wkh xqghuvwdqglqj dqg prghoolqj dw dixqgdphqwdo ohyho ri wkh phfkdqlvp ri wudqvsruw1 Dv d uhvxow/ vroxwlrqv iru grvhuhgxfwlrq lq qhz ru h{lvwlqj exloglqjv duh surylghg yld jryhuqphqwdo uhjxodwlrqv1

Lq wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ d v|vwhp ri ulvn pdqdjhphqw dsso|lqj wr kxpdq dfwlylwlhvwkdw kdyh d qhjdwlyh h�hfw rq wkh hqylurqphqw lv edvhg rq d qxpehu ri ulvn0olplwv1Wklv dssurdfk idflolwdwhv d frpsdulvrq ri gl�huhqw ulvnv iru ydulrxv vrxufhv dqghqdeohv wuhdwphqw ri udgldwlrq ulvnv lq d vlplodu pdqqhu dv ulvnv gxh wr h{srvxuhwr fkhplfdo ru rwkhu djhqwv1 Wkuhh olplwv duh irupxodwhg=

� wkh pd{lpxp wrohudeoh ulvn iru hduo| ghdwk iru doo vrxufhv= 433D |3�1� iru h{srvxuh wr hdfk vlqjoh vrxufh/ d pd{lpxp ulvn ohyho lv vhw dw 433S |3�1

Wkh ulvn gxh wr d vlqjoh vrxufh lv frqvlghuhg wr eh qhjoljleoh li lw grhv qrw h{fhhg433H |3�1

� ehwzhhq pd{lpxp wrohudeoh dqg qhjoljleoh ulvn olhv d cjuh|* duhd lq zklfkulvnv kdyh wr eh uhgxfhg dv pxfk dv srvvleoh1 Dv orqj dv wkh ulvn lv qrw qhjoljleoh/phdvxuhv kdyh wr eh wdnhq li wkh glvdgydqwdjhv dqg ulvnv rxwzhljk wkh dgydq0wdjhv ri wkh uhohydqw dfwlylw| dffruglqj wr wkh DODUD +Dv Orz Dv Uhdvrqdeo|Dfklhydeoh, sulqflsoh1

Wklv v|vwhp ri ulvn pdqdjhphqw zdv ixuwkhu vshfl�hg lq 4<<3 iru udgldwlrqsurwhfwlrq1 Lq dffrugdqfh zlwk LFUS 93/ irxu vrxufhv ri lrql}lqj udgldwlrq duhglvwlqjxlvkhg/ qdpho|=

41 ixqfwlrqdo dssolfdwlrqv>51 qrq0qxfohdu lqgxvwu| >61 vrxufhv ri wkh olylqj hqylurqphqw +gzhoolqjv dqg exloglqj whfkqltxhv,>71 qdwxudo vrxufhv +frvplf ud|v/ efN/ 2�2Wk dqg 2�HX,1

53 Lqwurgxfwlrq

Wkh odvw vrxufh lv wrwdoo| xqfrqwuroodeoh> wkh fruuhvsrqglqj ulvn wkxv/ qrwehlqj vxemhfw wr wkh v|vwhp1 Iru wkh �uvw wzr vrxufhv/ wkh v|vwhp ri ulvn olplwd0wlrq fdq eh fohduo| dssolhg zkloh wkh wklug vrxufh lv uhjdughg wr eh rqo| sduwo|frqwuroodeoh dqg dssolfdwlrq ri wkh ulvn olplwv lv frqvlghuhg ohvv vxlwdeoh1 Wkhdgglwlrqdo udgldwlrq ulvn uhodwhg wr wkh olylqj hqylurqphqw lq wkh Qhwkhuodqgv lvhvwlpdwhg dv 518�433D |3� dqg wkxv/ h{fhhgv wkh pd{lpxp wrohudeoh ulvn olplw irudoo vrxufhv1 Wkh uhodwlyho| kljk ulvn ri hvshfldoo| udgrq lq wkh olylqj hqylurqphqwdv frpsduhg wr ulvnv ri rwkhu djhqwv ohg wkh jryhuqphqw wr jlyh sulrulw| wr wkhirupxodwlrq ri ohjlvodwlrq dlphg dw uhgxflqj lw1 Edvhg rq wkh phdvxuhphqwv dqgprgho fdofxodwlrqv ri wkh �uvw Gxwfk vxuyh|/ wkh jryhuqphqw irupxodwhg lq 4<<7wkh iroorzlqj wkuhh dlpv=

41 Wr prgli| wkh suhvhqw exloglqj sudfwlvh lq vxfk d zd| wkdw wkh dyhudjhudgrq frqfhqwudwlrq lq qhzo| exlow krxvhv lv ohvv wkdq 53Etp3�>

51 Wr dgmxvw h{lvwlqj krxvhv lq vxfk d zd| wkdw wkh dyhudjh udgrq frqfhqwud0wlrq zloo qrw h{fhhg 53Etp3�>

61 Wr suhyhqw wkdw wkh dyhudjh frqwulexwlrq ri exloglqj pdwhuldov wr wkh wrwdoudgldwlrq grvh h{fhhgv wkh dyhudjh frqwulexwlrq dv phdvxuhg lq 4<;7/ qdpho|31: pVy |3�1

Wkh �uvw wzr dlpv zhuh edvhg rq prgho fdofxodwlrqv vkrzlqj wkdw vxfk duhgxfwlrq lv ihdvleoh li wzr phdvxuhv djdlqvw udgrq hqwu| iurp wkh vrlo duh wdnhqlq frpelqdwlrq1 Wkhvh phdvxuhv zhuh wr lqfuhdvh wkh yhqwlodwlrq ri wkh fudzovsdfh dqg wr ghfuhdvh wkh dlu shuphdelolw| ri wkh jurxqg �rru1 Krzhyhu/ odujhvfdoh vwxglhv rq wkh h�hfwlyhqhvv ri phdvxuhv gluhfwhg djdlqvw udgrq hqwu| iurpwkh vrlo frqgxfwhg lq 4<<904<<: vkrzhg yhu| olwwoh uhgxfwlrq ri lqgrru udgrqfrqfhqwudwlrqv1 Gxulqj wkhvh vwxglhv lw dovr ehfdph fohdu wkdw fudzo vsdfh udgrqfrqfhqwudwlrq zhuh pxfk orzhu wkdq hduolhu dqwlflsdwhg qdpho| 830:3 Etp3�

lqvwhdg ri 633 Etp3� wkdw zdv xs wr wkhq wdnhq dv d uhsuhvhqwdwlyh ydoxh1

Lw lv suhvhqwo| xqghuvwrrg wkdw udgrq lv gluhfwo| uhohdvhg lqwr wkh lqgrru dlue| gl�xvlrq dqg dgyhfwlrq iurp exloglqj pdwhuldov dqg hqwhuv krxvhv zlwk wkh dluwkdw lv gudzq e| vpdoo suhvvxuh judglhqwv ru iurp rxwgrruv/ yld wkh yhqwlodwlrqdlu ru lqgluhfwo| yld wkh fudzo vsdfh dqg2ru wkh exloglqj vkhoo1

Wkh fkdqjhg lqvljkwv frqfhuqlqj wkh uroh ri udgrq hqwu| yld wkh fudzo vsdfhkdv ohg wkh Gxwfk jryhuqphqw wr uhfrqvlghu lwv srolf| rq udgrq1 Dw wkh prphqwd uhvhdufk surjudp kdv vwduwhg wr ghyhors d vr0fdoohg cUdgldwlrq ShuirupdqfhLqgh{ +USL,* ^454`1 Wklv lv dqdorjrxv wr wkh Gxwfk dssurdfk wrzdugv hqhuj|shuirupdqfh ri exloglqjv zhuh vxfk dq lqgh{ lv douhdg| dssolhg1


��D +@_�@|�L? �ihuLh4@?Ui W?_i

Wkh USL lqgh{ vkrxog eh fdofxodwhg iru qhzo| wr eh exlow krxvhv rq edvlv ri wkhexloglqj sodq dqg kdv wr eh vpdoohu wkdq d pd{lpxp wrohudeoh ydoxh wkdw kdv vwloowr eh vhw e| wkh jryhuqphqw1 Vwdqgduglvhg fdofxodwlrqv lqfoxgh grvh frqwulexwlrqviurp erwk �0udgldwlrq dqg udgrq iurp wkh exloglqj pdwhuldov1 Suhvhqwo| vxfk dfdofxodwlrq vfkhph lv ehlqj ghyhorshg1 Wkh lqlwldo lghd lv wr fdofxodwh wkh h{shfwhgudgrq frqfhqwudwlrq F�c� +Etp

3�, gxh wr wkh vrxufhv ri wkh krxvh lq urrp l/ iurpwkh ghvljqhg yhqwlodwlrq fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh exloglqj dqg wkh h{kdodwlrq udwhvri wkh exloglqj pdwhuldov=

F�c� @ F� �Fe @7�n

?S

�'�

EE��3�e�'�<��

?�T�> +414,

zkhuh F�c� +Etp3�, lv wkh h{shfwhg hqkdqfhphqw ri udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq lq frp0sduwphqw l ri d gzhoolqj ryhu wkh rxwgrru udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq> F�/ F� / Fe duhudgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv +Etp3�, lq urrp l> m dqg rxwgrruv/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Lq wklvhtxdwlrq V� lv wkh wrwdo udgrq surgxfwlrq udwh lq frpsduwphqw l +Et v3�,/ T�3� lvwkh dlu �rz iurp frpsduwphqw m wr l +p� v3�,/ q� lv wkh yhqwlodwlrq udwh +v3�, rifrpsduwphqw l dqg Y� lv wkh yroxph +p�, ri frpsduwphqw l1 Ydoxhv iru T�3�/ q�dqg Y� duh wr eh ghulyhg iurp wkh ghvljqhg yhqwlodwlrq fkdudfwhulvwlfv dqg glphq0vlrqv vshfl�hg lq wkh exloglqj sodq1 Wkh udgrq surgxfwlrq lq d fhuwdlq frpsduw0phqw kdv wr eh fdofxodwhg iurp h{kdodwlrq udwhv dqg dprxqwv +vxuidfhv, ri exlog0lqj pdwhuldov dssolhg lq wkdw frpsduwphqw1 Wkh grvh frqwulexwlrq iurp udgrq lvwkhq frpsxwhg e| xvlqj wkh frqyhuvlrq frqyhqwlrq ri LFUS 98/ 31354 pVy |3� shuEtp3� ^6`1 Udgrq hqwu| iurp wkh fudzo vsdfh lv wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw e| dq h{0wud surgxfwlrq whup lq Ht1 414 iru wkh jurxqg �rru urrpv1 Wklv whupv ghshqgvrq �rru vxuidfh duhd dqg dlu shuphdelolw|1 Wkh dlu �rz iurp wkh fudzo vsdfh lvxvxdoo| yhu| vpdoo dqg lv qhjohfwhg lq wkh wrwdo yhqwlodwlrq udwh fdofxodwlrqv1

Wkh grvh frqwulexwlrq H+pVy |3�, iurp �0udgldwlrq lv fdofxodwhg iru d fhuwdlqfrpsduwphqw l iurp=

H @ nLFL . nA�FA� . ngFg > +415,

zkhuh n% uhsuhvhqw frqyhuvlrq idfwruv iurp Et nj3� wr pVy |3� dqg F% duh dyhu0djh dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv +Etnj3�, ri wkh exloglqj pdwhuldov lq wkh urrp> wkhlqgh{ { lqglfdwhv srwdvvlxp +N, dqg wkh ghfd| vhulhv ri xudqlxp +X, dqg wkrulxp+Wk,1 Wr dffrxqw iru wkh ghqvlw|/ wkh frqyhuvlrq frh�flhqwv zloo eh vhw iru hdfkexloglqj pdwhuldo1 Iru erwk wkh h{kdodwlrq udwhv dqg wkh dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv

55 Lqwurgxfwlrq

ri exloglqj pdwhuldov/ ghidxow ydoxhv duh suhvfulehg dw wkh kljkhu hqg ri wkh udqjhuhsuhvhqwdwlyh iru wkh Gxwfk vlwxdwlrq1 Wkhvh ydoxhv duh fkrvhq vxfk wkdw <8(ri wkh pdwhuldov xvhg lq sudfwlfh duh ehorz wkh ghidxow ydoxhv +dyhudjh soxv wzrvwdqgdug ghyldwlrqv,1 Xvh ri vxfk ghidxow ydoxhv uhvxowv lq dq ryhuhvwlpdwh ri wkhuhdo h�hfwlyh grvh dqg wkxv/ ri wkh USL ri wkh gzhoolqj1 Orzhu ydoxhv pd| ehxvhg rqo| iru wkh fdvh zkhuh wkh| fdq eh mxvwl�hg e| phdvxuhphqwv dffruglqjwr vwdqgduglvhg surwrfrov1 D qhz vxuyh| lv qrz xqghuwdnhq e| ydulrxv GxwfkLqvwlwxwhv wr phdvxuh wkh �0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv dqg udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv iurpexloglqj pdwhuldov1

Wkh vfkhph zdv whvwhg rq d uhihuhqfh gzhoolqj +wdnhq iurp d uhdo ghvljq,w|slfdo iru uhfhqw Gxwfk exloglqj sudfwlfh ^47;`1 Wklv gzhoolqj lv d whuudfhg wkuhh0vwruh|hg vlqjoh0idplo| krxvh1 Iorruv dqg zdoov ehwzhhq gzhoolqjv duh pdgh rifrqfuhwh/ iurqw dqg edfn duh fdylw| zdoov pdgh ri eulfn +rxwvlgh, dqg vdqg| olphvwrqh +lqqhu vlgh,1 Lq wkh whvw/ ydoxhv duh xvhg iru h{kdodwlrq udwhv shu xqlw ripdvv fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkh ghidxow +kljk, dqg wr dyhudjh ydoxhv1 Ixuwkhupruh/yhqwlodwlrq lv lqfoxghg e| xvlqj wkh dfwxdoo| ghvljqhg yhqwlodwlrq vwudwhj| ri wkhgzhoolqj zklfk frqvlvwv ri sdvvlyh dlu vxsso| wkurxjk yhqwlodwlrq rshqlqjv lq zdoovdqg zlqgrzv dqg phfkdqlfdo dlu uhprydo lq wkh nlwfkhq/ edwkurrp dqg wrlohw1 Wkhwrwdo dlu �rz wr dqg iurp wkh krxvh lv 85�433� p� v3�> zlwk d wrwdo yroxph ri wkhgzhoolqj ri 567 p� wklv dprxqwv wr d yhqwlodwlrq udwh ri 31; k3�1

Wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq lq wkh olylqj urrp ri wklv gzhoolqj fdofxodwhg rqedvlv ri hlwkhu ghidxow ru dyhudjh udgrq h{kdodwlrq udwhv +Wdeoh 419, frqvlghudeo|xqghuhvwlpdwhv wkh qdwlrqdo dyhudjh olylqj urrp frqfhqwudwlrq iru uhfhqw krxvhvplqxv wkh rxwgrru frqfhqwudwlrq +5;07@57 Etp3�, dqg lv dq rughu ri pdjqlwxghorzhu wkdq wkh <8( ydoxh lq wkh fxpxodwlyh udgrq glvwulexwlrq ghulyhg iurp wkhqdwlrqdo vxuyh|v1 Iru wkh ehgurrpv wkh glvfuhsdqf| zlwk phdvxuhg ydoxhv lv hyhqpruh hylghqw1

Wdeoh 419= +@_L? UL?Ui?|h@|�L?t �? �@h�L�t hLL4t Lu |�i |it| _�i**�?} U@*U�*@|i_ ��|� |�i

+�W 4L_i* L? M@t�t Lu _iu@�*| @?_ @�ih@}i h@_L? 4@tt�i �@*@|�L? h@|it�

Urrp Udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq +Etp3�,Ghidxow Dyhudjh

Olylqjurrp2Nlwfkhq 4417 <15Ehgurrp 4 919 719Ehgurrp 5 :13 71<Ehgurrp 6 81: 713


Iurp wkh frpsdulvrq ehwzhhq fdofxodwhg dqg phdvxuhg ydoxhv lw fdq eh frq0foxghg wkdw wkh USL prgho odfnv d pdmru frqwulexwru wr wkh lqgrru udgrq frqfhq0wudwlrqv1 Dwwhpswv wr dwwulexwh wkh xqghuhvwlpdwh wr wkh idfw wkdw wkh ghvljqhgyhqwlodwlrq uhjlph grhv qrw uh�hfw wkh sudfwlfdo vlwxdwlrq zkhuh/ gxh wr lqwhuihu0hqfh ri wkh rffxsdqwv/ yhqwlodwlrq pljkw eh orzhu duh qrw uhdolvwlf1 Ghfuhdvlqjyhqwlodwlrq zlwk d idfwru ri wzr lqfuhdvhv lqghhg wkh fdofxodwhg udgrq frqfhqwud0wlrqv e| d idfwru wzr dqg uhvxowv lq ydoxhv forvh wr wkh phdvxuhphqwv1 Krzhyhu/lq wkh vhfrqg qdwlrqdo udgrq vxuyh| wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq dqg wkh yhqwlod0wlrq udwh zhuh phdvxuhg vlpxowdqhrxv dqg wkh frpsdulvrq vkrxog eh pdgh zlwkwkh dyhudjh yhqwlodwlrq udwh +31< k3� iru wkh olylqj urrp,1 Lq wklv ydoxh ri wkhyhqwlodwlrq udwh wkh dyhudjh rffxsdqw h�hfw lv douhdg| lqfrusrudwhg1 D srvvl0eoh h{sodqdwlrq lv wkdw wkh udgrq0h{kdodwlrq udwhv duh wrr orz1 Lq idfw/ suhvhqwh{kdodwlrq phdvxuhphqwv duh vxfk wkdw rqo| wkh gl�xvlyh udgrq uhohdvh ri wkhexloglqj pdwhuldo lv phdvxuhg1 Dlu suhvvxuh gl�huhqfhv ryhu wkh exloglqj vkhoodqg zlqg dqg whpshudwxuh gl�huhqfhv pljkw ohdg wr d srvvleoh dgyhfwlyh uhohdvh1Hylghqfh iru vxfk suhvvxuh0gulyhq uhohdvh zdv douhdg| revhuyhg lq wkh QJG0NYLwhvw gzhoolqj ^47`1 Lq wklv gzhoolqj lw zdv dovr ghprqvwudwhg wkdw dq ryhusuhvvxuh/uhvxowlqj lq d vlplodu yhqwlodwlrq udwh dv xqghusuhvvxuh/ uhgxfhg wkh lqgrru udgrqfrqfhqwudwlrqv wr dpelhqw rxwgrru ohyhov1

Wkh uhihuhqfh gzhoolqj zdv dovr xvhg lq dq dqdo|vlv ri wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri wkhUSL rq wkh lqsxw ydoxhv iru wkh dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv1 Xvlqj dyhudjh ydoxhviru wkh dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv uhvxowhg lq d grvh udwh ri 3163 pVy |3�frqvlvwhqwzlwk wkh grvh udwh udqjh +314;03194 pVy |3�, hvwlpdwhg iurp phdvxuhphqwv1

��S �hiti?| @TThL@U�

Wkh Gxwfk jryhuqphqw dlpv dw lpsohphqwdwlrq ri wkh USL lq wkh Gxwfk exloglqjfrghv zlwklq 6 wr 8 |hduv1 Dv wkh suhvhqw yhuvlrq ri wkh USL0vfkhph idlov wruhsurgxfh wkh udgrq frpsrqhqw ri wkh grvh/ ixwxuh ghyhorsphqw frqfhuqlqj wkhUSL vkrxog lqyroyh d pruh h{whqghg ydolgdwlrq ri wkh dssur{lpdwlrqv1 Edvlflqsxw sdudphwhuv ghvfulelqj udgldwlrq surshuwlhv dqg qhhghg wr fdofxodwh wkh USLduh udgrq h{kdodwlrq udwhv dqg dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv ri wkh exloglqj pdwhuldoviru zklfk frqfhswv ri vwdqgduglvhg phdvxuhphqw surwrfrov duh douhdg| dydlodeoh1Wkxv/ wkh irfxv vkrxog eh rq=

� wkh srvvleoh uroh ri dq dgyhfwlyh frqwulexwlrq wr udgrq uhohdvh iurp wkhexloglqj pdwhuldov>

� uhgxflqj wkh udgrq uhohdvh iurp wkh exloglqj pdwhuldov e| fkdqjhv lq sur0gxfwlrq whfkqltxhv/ frdwlqjv/ dgglqj udgrq dgvruelqj frpsrxqgv hwf1>

57 Lqwurgxfwlrq

� lqfuhdvlqj wkh yhqwlodwlrq udwh dqg2ru dsso|lqj srvlwlyh suhvvxul}dwlrq riwkh exloglqj vkhoo +dqg wkxv/ ghfuhdvh wkh srvvleoh lqzdugv gluhfwhg dgyhfwlyhfrqwulexwlrq,>

� ydolgdwlqj wkh USL lq d v|vwhpdwlf pdqqhu e| exloglqj d oderudwru| whvwkrxvh zlwk vx�flhqw lqvwuxphqwdwlrq dqg frqwuro srvvlelolwlhv1

Suhvhqwo| wkhuh duh wzr surmhfwv lqyroyhg zlwk edvlf uhvhdufk lq wkh udgrq�hog lq wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ uhodwhg wr udgrq jhqhudwlrq dqg wudqvsruw lq exloglqjpdwhuldov1

Dw wkh Whfkqlfdo Xqlyhuvlw| ri Hlqgkryhq d vwxg| irfxvhv rq wkh pdfur0vfdohxqghuvwdqglqj ri wkh wudqvsruw ri udgrq dqg lwv uhodwlrq wr fkdqjhv lq wkh hqyl0urqphqwdo sdudphwhuv ^485`1 Dv wkh :3( frqwulexwlrq ri wkh exloglqj pdwhuldovwr lqgrru udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv fdq qrw eh h{sodlqhg e| gl�xvlyh h{kdodwlrq rqo|/wkh k|srwkhvlv lv whvwhg wkdw udgrq wudqvsruw lv gulyhq e| hlwkhu d suhvvxuh rud whpshudwxuh judglhqw1 D vhw0xs kdv ehhq ghvljqhg dqg exlow/ wkdw frqvlvwv rid vwdlqohvv0vwhho yhvvho lq zklfk d kroorz f|olqghu ri exloglqj pdwhuldo lv sodfhg1Wklv zd|/ wzr frpsduwphqwv duh fuhdwhg zklfk duh vhsdudwhg iurp hdfk rwkhu e|d exloglqj pdwhuldo1 Wkh kxplglw|/ whpshudwxuh dqg wkh dlu0�rz lq wkhvh frp0sduwphqwv duh frqwuroohg1 E| xvlqj d udgrq vrxufh lq wkh lqqhu frpsduwphqw/hqkdqfhg wudqvsruw ri udgrq fdq eh vlpxodwhg dqg wkh lq�xhqfh wkdw dq| suhv0vxuh ru whpshudwxuh gl�huhqfh ryhu wkh exloglqj pdwhuldo kdv +fruuhvsrqglqj wrd fkdqjh lq wkh frqwlqxrxvo| prqlwruhg udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv, fdq eh revhuyhg1Wkh �uvw vhulhv ri h{shulphqwv duh ehlqj frqgxfwhg zlwk dhudwhg frqfuhwh dqgh�hfwv ri gl�huhqw hqylurqphqwdo sdudphwhuv +pdlqo| suhvvxuh/ whpshudwxuh dqgkxplglw| judglhqwv, duh ehlqj vwxglhg1 Wr ghvfuleh wkh udgrq wudqvsruw lq whupvri gl�xvlyh dqg dgyhfwlyh wudqvsruw/ wkh NYL udgrq0wudqvsruw prgho ^487` zlooeh xvhg1 Wklv prgho lv dlphg wr eh h{whqghg e| lqwhjudwlqj wudqvsruw gulyhq e|whpshudwxuh dqg kxplglw| judglhqwv1

Wkh NYL surmhfw uhjdugv udgrq gl�xvlrq0gulyhq wudqvsruw lq exloglqj pdwhul0dov dw wkh phvr0vfdoh ohyho1 Iurp wkh eurdg udqjh ri exloglqj pdwhuldov/ frqfuhwhkdv ehhq fkrvhq rq edvlv ri ehlqj wkh prvw zlgho| xvhg lq wkh Qhwkhuodqgv1 Ode0rudwru| h{shulphqwv rq udgrq wudqvsruw vxfk dv h{kdodwlrq phdvxuhphqwv/ irfxvpdlqo| rq udgrq wudqvsruw e| gl�xvlrq1 Wkh iuhh/ gl�xvlrq0frqwuroohg udgrq h{0kdodwlrq lv rewdlqhg iurp phdvxuhphqwv lq dq h{kdodwlrq fkdpehu lq zklfk dexloglqj pdwhuldo lv hqforvhg dqg wkurxjk zklfk d frqwlqxrxv �rz ri qlwurjhqzlwk frqwuroohg �rz udwh/ whpshudwxuh dqg kxplglw| lv dssolhg1 Dw wkh h{lw riwkh fkdpehu wkh surgxfhg udgrq lv wudsshg rq dfwlydwhg fkdufrdo dqg vxevh0txhqwo| dqdo|vhg1 Lq wklv vwudljkwiruzdug vlwxdwlrq/ l1h1 wkdw ri gl�xvlrq0gulyhq

415 Dlp dqg rxwolqh ri wklv wkhvlv 58

udgrq wudqvsruw/ lw lv krshg wkdw qrw rqo| wkh h�hfwlylw| ri h{whuqdo uhgxfwlrqphdvxuhv +vxfk dv vxuidfh fryhulqj, fdq eh lqyhvwljdwhg exw dovr lqirupdwlrq fdqeh jdlqhg rq wkh vwuxfwxudo sdudphwhuv wkdw kdyh wr eh frqwuroohg wr ghvljq qhzexloglqj pdwhuldov zlwk orz udgrq surgxfwlrq1 Frqfuhwh lv rqh ri wkh prvw fkdo0ohqjlqj vwuxfwxuhv ehfdxvh ri wkh udqgrpqhvv dqg glvfrqwlqxlwlhv dw hyhu| ohyholw h{klelwv/ ri lwv g|qdplf dqg hqylurqphqwdo0uhvsrqvlyh plfurvwuxfwxuh dqg riwkh qxphurxv dqg ydulrxv lqwhuuhodwhg sk|vlfdo skhqrphqd wkdw wdnh sodfh lqvlghlw1 Wkh NYL udgrq0wudqvsruw prgho kdv ehhq frxsohg wr d prgho wkdw vlpxodwhvwkh wlph hyroxwlrq ri frqfuhwh plfurvwuxfwxuh dqg prlvwxuh frqwhqw +erwk sd0udphwhuv ehlqj ri lpsruwdqfh iru udgrq wudqvsruw,1 Wkh suhvhqw ghwdlohg vwxg|rq udgrq wudqvsruw wkurxjk frqfuhwh fuhdwhv d suhfhghqw lq wklv �hog vxfk dv lqixwxuh/ wkh dfklhyhg nqrzohgjh dqg h{shulhqfh fdq eh xvhg wr pruh hdvlo| xq0ghuvwdqg wklv w|sh ri wudqvsruw wkurxjk rwkhu w|shv ri exloglqj pdwhuldov +eulfnv/skrvskrj|svxp/ hwf1,1

Zlwk d frpsohwho| dfklhyhg nqrzohgjh dw pdfur0 dqg phvr0 vfdoh ohyhov/ hi0�flhqw udgrq0uhgxfwlrq whfkqltxhv dqg orz udgrq0hpdqdwlqj exloglqj pdwhuldovfrxog eh ghvljqhg1 Lw lv krzhyhu uhdolvhg wkdw d eurdg/ lqwhjudwhg dqg pxowl0glvflsolqdu| dssurdfk lv qhhghg wr dyrlg wkdw frxqwhuphdvxuhv djdlqvw udgrqsurgxfhv dgyhuvh h�hfwv zlwk uhvshfw wr rwkhu dvshfwv ri wkh lqgrru hqylurqphqw+prlvwxuh/ hqhuj| frqvxpswlrq/ rwkhu lqgrru dlu srooxwdqwv hwf1,/ pdqxidfwxulqjsudfwlfhv ri exloglqj surgxfwv dqg hfrqrplf ihdvlelolw|1

��2 ��4 @?_ L�|*�?i Lu |��t |�it�t

��2�� 4

Wkh pdqxidfwxuh dqg xvh ri wkh exloglqj pdwhuldov ghyhorshg zlwk wkh qhhg rikxpdq ehlqjv wr exlog d vwurqjhu dqg pruh surwhfwlyh kdelwdw= krxvhv dqg rwkhufrqvwuxfwlrqv1 Duwl�fldo exloglqj pdwhuldov vwduw ehlqj surgxfhg +vxfk dv eulfnv/wlohv dqg wkh �uvw duwl�fldo fhphqwv,/ prvwo| e| frpexvwlrq ri Hduwk pdwwhu olnhfod| dqg urfnv1 Wrgd| wkh surjuhvv lq wkh pdqxidfwxulqj ri exloglqj pdwhuldovfrqwlqxhv1 Qhz pdwhuldov duh ehlqj ghyhorshg/ ohdglqj wr wkh surgxfwlrq ri pruhh�hfwlyh/ gxudeoh dqg yduldwh exloglqj pdwhuldov dgdswhg wr gl�huhqw qhfhvvlwlhv=iurp wkh olylqj hqylurqphqw wr wkdw ri lqgxvwuldo frqvwuxfwlrqv1 Dv suhylrxvo|srlqwhg rxw/ qdwxudo udglrdfwlylw| lv dq lqwulqvlf surshuw| ri ydulrxv qdwxudo dqgpdq0pdgh pdwhuldov/ lwv ohyho ghshqglqj rq wkh ruljlq dqg wuhdwphqw ri wkh pd0whuldov1 Dgglwlrqdoo|/ wklv dfwlylw| ohyho lv xvxdoo| hqkdqfhg e| wkh suhvhqfh rie|0surgxfwv +olnh �|0dvk/ eodvwixuqdfh vodj/ j|svxp/ doxp vkdoh/ hwf1,1 D gluhfw

59 Lqwurgxfwlrq

frqvhtxhqfh ri wkh qdwxudo udglrdfwlylw| ohyhov ri exloglqj pdwhuldov lv wkhlu udgrquhohdvh/ udgrq ehlqj wkh pdmru lqgrru0dlu srooxwdqw1 Lq wkh Qhwkhuodqgv wkh wzrqdwlrqdo vxuyh|v vkrzhg wkdw exloglqj pdwhuldov dqg/ e| h{fhoohqfh/ frqfuhwh/ dvehlqj wkh prvw zlgho| xvhg exloglqj pdwhuldo lq wkh Gxwfk exloglqj sudfwlfh/ duhwkh pdmru vrxufh +:3(, ri wkh lqgrru udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq ohyhov1 Wkh dlp ri wkhsuhvhqw wkhvlv lv wr lpsuryh wkh edvlf nqrzohgjh rq udgrq surgxfwlrq dqg wudqv0sruw lq frqfuhwh1 Wklv zloo idflolwdwh �qglqj zd|v wr uhgxfh wkh udgrq uhohdvhiurp wkh exloglqj pdwhuldov e| fkdqjhv lq surgxfwlrq whfkqltxhv ru e| wkh xvh rih�hfwlyh frdwlqjv1

��2�2 ��|*�?i

Wkh wudqvsruw ri udgrq lq frqfuhwh wdnhv sodfh wkurxjk wkh frpsolfdwhg qhwzrun rilqwhufrqqhfwhg sruhv wkdw lv/ dw dq| wlph/ wkh uhvxow ri wkh surfhvv ri k|gudwlrq rifhphqw dqg ri prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrq dqg wudqvsruw1 Lqlwldoo| wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh rifrqfuhwh ghshqgv rq wkh pl{ sursruwlrqv dqg fxulqj frqglwlrqv/ lwv wlph0hyroxwlrqehlqj frqglwlrqhg e| lwv vxuurxqglqj hqylurqphqw1 Udgrq wudqvsruw zloo eh frq0vhtxhqwo| d ixqfwlrq ri wlph/ dv lw lv lq�xhqfhg e| wkh fkdqjlqj plfurvwuxfwxuh+wrwdo srurvlw| dqg lwv glvwulexwlrq, dqg e| wkh dprxqw dqg glvwulexwlrq ri wkhprlvwxuh frqwdlqhg lq wkh sruh v|vwhp1 D vhohfwlrq ri lqirupdwlrq iurp wkh odujhdprxqw ri olwhudwxuh dydlodeoh rq frqfuhwh lv suhvhqwhg lq fkdswhu 51 Iluvw/ wkhsurshuwlhv ri fhphqw srzghuv dqg djjuhjdwhv xvhg lq wkh pdqxidfwxulqj ri frq0fuhwh duh eulh�| ryhuylhzhg1 Wkh prvw lq�xhqwldo surfhvv lv k|gudwlrq ri fhphqwsrzghu1 Khuh wkh zdwhu frqwhqw ri frqfuhwh lv ri juhdw lpsruwdqfh dv/ li qrw gh0vljqhg lq wkh surshu udwlr zlwk wkh fhphqw srzghu/ frqwlqxlqj k|gudwlrq fdq qrwwdnh sodfh1 Gxulqj k|gudwlrq/ ydulrxv w|shv ri sruhv duh iruphg/ wkhlu dprxqwdqg glvwulexwlrq ehlqj wlph ghshqghqw1 Zdwhu lq wkhvh sruhv lv khog lq d ydulhw|ri irupv/ iurp fdsloodu| zdwhu wr vwurqjo| fkhplfdoo| erxqg zdwhu1 Lq sulqflsoh/e| nqrzlqj wkh lqlwldo dprxqw ri srzghu dqg wkh zdwhu0srzghu udwlr wkh dprxqwri ydulrxv srurxv dqg vrolg skdvhv lq wkh fhphqw sdvwh fdq eh fdofxodwhg1 Dprgho wkdw ghvfulehv wkh surfhvv ri k|gudwlrq/ ri plfurvwuxfwxuh ghyhorsphqwdqg ri prlvwxuh wudqvsruw lv suhvhqwhg lq fkdswhu 61 D g|qdplf frxsolqj ri wkhvhwkuhh surfhvvhv lv dfklhyhg e| lqwhjudwlqj wkhlu frqwulexwlrq lq d vlqjoh htxdwlrq1Xqghu vrph dvvxpswlrqv frqfuhwh fdq eh uhsuhvhqwhg e| lwv fhphqw sdvwh1

Wkh sk|vlfv ri udgrq gl�xvlrq lq krprjhqhrxv srurxv pdwhuldov lv rxwolqhg lqfkdswhu 71 D pxowl0skdvh/ wlph0ghshqghqw udgrq0gl�xvlrq htxdwlrq lv suhvhqwhgdffrxqwlqj iru udgrq surgxfwlrq dqg ghfd|1 Wklv htxdwlrq kdv ehhq vr idu xvhg wrydolgdwh udgrq wudqvsruw lq xqfrqvrolgdwhg srurxv phgld +vrlo dqg vdqg,1 D glv0

415 Dlp dqg rxwolqh ri wklv wkhvlv 5:

fxvvlrq ri wkh gl�huhqfhv srvvleoh wr lqwhuyhqh iru wkh fdvh ri frqvrolgdwhg srurxvphgld lv frqvlghuhg1 Vhyhudo pdwhuldo sdudphwhuv/ xvxdoo| ghwhuplqhg yld lqgh0shqghqw phdvxuhphqwv/ rffxu lq wkh pxowl0skdvh/ wlph0ghshqghqw udgrq0gl�xvlrqhtxdwlrq1 Wkh frxsolqj ri wkh qxphulfdo lpsohphqwdwlrq ri wkh k|gudwlrq dqgudgrq wudqvsruw +fkdswhu 9, r�huv wkh srvvlelolw| wr dfklhyh fdofxodwhg ydoxhv irusrurvlw| dqg prlvwxuh frqwhqw wkxv/ uhgxflqj wkh qxpehu ri pdwhuldo sdudphwhuvlq wkh udgrq0wudqvsruw htxdwlrq wkdw kdyh wr eh ghwhuplqhg h{shulphqwdoo|1

Fkdswhu : fryhuv wkh h{shulphqwdo phwkrgv dqg whfkqltxhv1 Wkh oderud0wru| idflolw| wr phdvxuh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv iurp exloglqj pdwhuldov xqghu zhoo0frqwuroohg frqglwlrqv lv ghvfulehg lq ghwdlo= surfhgxuh/ fdoleudwlrq/ fdofxodwlrqphwkrgrorj|1 Wklv fkdswhu dovr ghvfulehv wkh phdvxuhphqwv e| �0ud| vshfwurph0wu| ri txdqwlwlhv fkdudfwhulvlqj udgrq jhqhudwlrq dqg wkh phdvxuhphqwv ri srurv0lw| ri frqfuhwh vdpsohv1

Fkdswhu 8 suhvhqwv d vxuyh| ri wkh lqirupdwlrq dydlodeoh lq olwhudwxuh rq udgrquhohdvh iurp frqfuhwh dqg rq udgrq eduulhuv1 Phdvxuhphqwv vkrz eurdg udqjhviru wkh ydoxhv ri udgrq uhohdvh gxh wr ydulrxv frqfuhwh pl{ ghvljq dqg pdqxidf0wxulqj whfkqltxhv/ kxplglw| dqg whpshudwxuh frqglwlrqlqj/ djh/ hwf1 Wklv fkdswhudovr vxppdulvhv uhvxowv ri vhyhudo h{shulphqwdo vwxglhv lqyhvwljdwlqj wkh udgrq0uhgxfwlrq h�flhqf| dqg dovr wkh shuphdelolw| ri ydulrxv fryhuv1 Rq edvlv ri wklvlqirupdwlrq/ d vhohfwlrq zdv pdgh iru wkh fryhulqj pdwhuldov wr eh dvvhvvhg lqwklv wkhvlv1 Udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri xqfryhuhg dqg frpsohwho| fryhuhg frqfuhwhvdpsohv zhuh phdvxuhg1 Iurp wkhvh phdvxuhphqwv wkh uhgxfwlrq h�flhqflhv riydulrxv vhdodqwv +hsr{| joxh/ grxeoh0vlghg doxplqlvhg sro|hwk|ohqh irlo/ vroxeohjodvv, zhuh fdofxodwhg +fkdswhu 45,1 Dovr/ dv d uhvxow ri wkh frooderudwlrq zlwkwkh Pdwhuldo dqg Surfhvv Vlpxodwlrq Fhqwhu dw FDOWHFK/ XVD/ d phwkrgrorj|wr hvwlpdwh wkh eduulhu surshuwlhv ri wzr sro|phulf phpeudqhv 0sro|surs|ohqh+SS, dqg sro|hwk|ohqhwhuhskwdodwh +SHW,0 zlwk uhvshfw wr udgrq lv sursrvhg+fkdswhu 46,1 Wkh prgho xvhv frpelqhg Prohfxodu G|qdplfv dqg Prqwh0Fduorwhfkqltxhv wr vlpxodwh shuphdelolw| surshuwlhv zlwk uhvshfw wr ydulrxv vroxwhv ri dodujh ydulhw| ri sro|phulf phpeudqhv1 Erwk 0wkh h{shulphqwv dqg wkh prghoolqj0eulqj pruh lqvljkw lq wkh zd| wkh frqwulexwlrq wr lqgrru0udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqvruljlqdwlqj iurp exloglqj pdwhuldov fdq eh frqwuroohg dqg hyhqwxdoo| uhgxfhg1

D vwdqgdug pdqxidfwxulqj uhfhlsw iru Gxwfk frqfuhwh lv lqglfdwhg lq fkdswhu ;1Udglrphwulf fkdudfwhulvwlfv +udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv/ udglxp frqwhqwv dqg hpdqdwlrqfrh�flhqwv, ri frqfuhwh frpsrqhqwv/ pruwdu sdvwh dqg frqfuhwh duh frpsduhg1Dovr srurvlw| ghwhuplqdwlrqv iru fhphqw sdvwh/ pruwdu0vdqg dqg frqfuhwh vdpsohvduh vkrzq1 Doo wklv lqirupdwlrq lv uhtxluhg lq rqh ri wkh vwhsv lq wkh frxsolqj

5; Lqwurgxfwlrq

vfkhph ri wkh wzr prghov suhvhqwhg lq fkdswhu 91Edvhg rq wkh prgho suhvhqwhg lq fkdswhu 6/ d txdqwlwdwlyh hvwlpdwh ri wkh pl0

furvwuxfwxuh +srurvlw|/ sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq, dqg vdwxudwlrq ohyhov lq wkh srurxvvwuxfwxuh ri fhphqw sdvwh dqg frqfuhwh/ iru ydulrxv fxulqj dqg kxplglw| frq0glwlrqv/ lv suhvhqwhg lq fkdswhu <1 Wkh wlph hyroxwlrq ri wkhvh sdudphwhuv lvdovr vkrzq1 Iru ydolgdwlrq/ wkh h{shulphqwdo dqg prghoohg pdvv ghfuhdvhv riwkh fhphqw sdvwh dqg frqfuhwh vdpsohv duh frpsduhg1 Lw lv dlphg wkdw lq wkhixwxuh d frpelqhg frgh ri frqfuhwh plfurvwuxfwxuh +GxFRP, dqg udgrq uhohdvh+UdgPrg, lv dfklhyhg1

Wklv wkhvlv irfxvhv rq gl�xvlyh wudqvsruw rqo| dqg frqvhtxhqwo|/ zhuh lqyhvwl0jdwhg lq ghwdlo wkh fkdudfwhulvwlf ydoxhv ri udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq frqfuhwh+fkdswhu 43,1 Wzr qhz phwkrgv wr ghwhuplqh wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw irufxelf2uhfwdqjxodu dqg kroorz f|olqgulfdo vdpsohv/ uhvshfwlyho| duh glvfxvvhg khuhdqg sursrvhg1 Zlwk wkh vhfrqg ydolgdwhg phwkrg/ wkh prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh riwkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq frqfuhwh zdv dovr vwxglhg1

Wkh sdudphwhu wkdw vwurqjo| lq�xhqfhv udgrq0uhohdvh lv wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqwri frqfuhwh1 Wr ehwwhu xqghuvwdqg wklv ghshqghqfh/ d frqfuhwh fxeh zdv vwxglhg lqghwdlo +fkdswhu 44, zlwk zdwhu frqwhqwv udqjlqj iurp wrwdoo| gu| wr ixoo| vdwxudwhg1Wklv sur�oh zdv dovr prghoohg e| xvlqj frpelqhg lqirupdwlrq iurp phdvxuhphqwvdqg frqfuhwh prghoolqj1

Lq fkdswhu 47 wkh uhvxowv ri wklv wkhvlv duh dvvhvvhg lq uhodwlrq wr wkhlu lpsol0fdwlrqv iru ixuwkhu uhvhdufk dqg wr udgrq uhgxfwlrq lq frqfuhwh1

Wkh uhvhdufk ghvfulehg lq wklv wkhvlv lqwhqgv wr r�hu d pruh wkrurxjk xq0ghuvwdqglqj ri wudqvsruw ri udgrq lq frqfuhwh e| xvlqj doo wkh wkuhh w|shv riphwkrgv dydlodeoh wr vflhqfh qrzdgd|v= h{shulphqwv/ wkhru| dqg frpsxwhu vlp0xodwlrqv1 Wkhvh wrrov/ lqwhjudwhg lqwr d ixqgdphqwdo dssurdfk/ ohg wr d pruhdffxudwh slfwxuh ri wkh sk|vlfdo skhqrphqd dqg wr frqfoxvlrqv wkdw duh ri lqwhu0hvw iru ydulrxv duhdv dv= udgrq uhvhdufk/ frqfuhwh lqgxvwu|/ lqgrru dlu srooxwlrqfrqwuro dqg hqylurqphqwdo vflhqfhv1

�

�L?Uhi|i ThLTih|�it

2�� W?|hL_�U|�L?

Wkh duw ri pdqxidfwxulqj frqfuhwh 0fdoohg Rsxv Fdhphqwlwlxp0 zdv �uvw pdv0whuhg e| wkh Urpdqv dqg wkh frqfuhwh whfkqrorj| zdv dw lwv �uvw �rxulvklqj wlphgxulqj wkh Urpdq Hpsluh1 Pdq| frqvwuxfwlrqv exlow dw wkdw wlph 0dtxhgxfwv/dpsklwkhdwhu/ eulgjhv/ whpsohv +rqh ri wkh prvw lpsuhvvlyh lv wkh Sdqwkhrq lqUrph, 0 uhsuhvhqw lq rxu gd|v d surri ri gxudelolw|1 \hw/ wkh xvh ri fhphqwlqjpdwhuldov zdv nqrzq hduolhu/ e| wkh dqflhqw Hj|swldqv +fdoflqhg lpsxuh j|svxpzdv d jrrg erxqg, exw wkh whfkqrorj| zdv qrw dv dgydqfhg1 Wkh �uvw cfrqfuhwh*lq klvwru| frqvlvwhg ri fdoflqhg olphvwrqh pl{hg zlwk olph dqg zdwhu/ vdqg dqgfuxvkhg vwrqh ru eulfn dqg eurnhq wlohv1 Iru frqvwuxfwlrqv xqghuzdwhu/ Urpdqvjurxqg wr wkh olph/ d yrofdqlf dvk wkdw khoshg lwv kdughqlqj1 Zlwk wkh ghfolqhri wkh Urpdq Hpsluh lq wkh �iwk fhqwxu|/ wkhlu duw ri pdqxidfwxulqj frqfuhwhzdv orvw1 D vlplodu whfkqltxh zdv uheruq lq wkh plggoh ri wkh 4<|� fhqwxu| zkhqSruwodqg fhphqw zdv glvfryhuhg lq Hqjodqg1 D exuvw ri frqfuhwh whfkqrorj|

5<

63 Frqfuhwh surshuwlhv

iroorzhg d vkruw wlph diwhu/ zlwk wkh pdqxidfwxuh ri wkh uhlqirufhg frqfuhwh lqIudqfh1 D qhz djh ri frqfuhwh0edvhg frqvwuxfwlrqv rshqhg/ vhuylqj dv d srzhuixowrro iru wkh Lqgxvwuldolvdwlrq ri hqwluh Hxursh1 Ruljlqdoo| frqfuhwh zdv surgxfhge| frpelqlqj rqo| wkuhh pdwhuldov= fhphqw +xvxdoo| Sruwodqg fhphqw,/ djjuhjdwh+vdqg dqg judyho, dqg zdwhu1 Lq wlph frqfuhwh whfkqrorj| ghyhorshg e| lpsury0lqj wkh vwuhqjwk dqg gxudelolw| ri wkh �qdo surgxfw1 Rqh ri wkhvh whfkqltxhv zdvdgglqj lqwr wkh pl{ yhu| vpdoo txdqwlwlhv ri fkhplfdo surgxfwv ru lqwurgxflqj/dv dq hfrqrplf �oohu +fkhdshu wkdq fhphqw srzghu, dqg ydulrxv lqrujdqlf pdwh0uldov1 Hfrorjlfdo frqfhuqv hqfrxudjhg wklv whfkqltxh ixuwkhu/ e| xvlqj dv d �oohulqgxvwuldo uhvw surgxfwv= eodvwixuqdfh vodj/ �| dvk ru vlolfd ixph1

Rqh vlgh h�hfw ri vxfk chfrorjlfdo frqfuhwh* lv uhodwhg wr lwv udglrorjlfdo dv0shfwv1 Vrph ri wkhvh �oohuv duh/ gxh wr wkh h{wudfwlrq ri wkh sulqflsdo pdwhuldo/hqkdqfhg lq frqfhqwudwlrqv ri udglrqxfolghv ri zklfk 2�HX srwhqwldoo| ohdgv wrdq lqfuhdvhg udgrq uhohdvh1 Wr lqyhvwljdwh wkh phfkdqlvp ri udgrq jhqhudwlrq/wudqvsruw dqg uhohdvh lq frqfuhwh/ rqh qhfhvvdulo| qhhgv wr xqghuvwdqg krz frq0fuhwh plfurvwuxfwxuh irupv dqg ghyhorsv1 Pruhryhu/ rqh kdv wr xqghuvwdqg krzwklv plfurvwuxfwxuh uhodwhv wr wkh revhuyhg pdfurvfrslf surshuwlhv ri frqfuhwh1

Wklv fkdswhu suhvhqwv d vhohfwlrq ri lqirupdwlrq wdnhq iurp d odujh dprxqwri olwhudwxuh rq ydulrxv dvshfwv ri frqfuhwh dqg vhuyhv dv d edvlv ri nqrzohgjh iruwkh jhqhudo dlp ri wklv wkhvlv1 Dv fhphqw lv wkh erqglqj djhqw ehwzhhq wkh rwkhufrpsrqhqwv wkdw irup frqfuhwh/ lwv pdqxidfwxuh/ frpsrvlwlrq dqg k|gudwlrq zlooeh uhylhzhg +vhfwlrq 515,1 Dv wkh vdpsohv vwxglhg lq wklv wkhvlv frqwdlq jurxqgjudqxodwhg eodvwixuqdfh vodj +jjev,/ wkh shfxoldulwlhv ri wklv w|sh ri fhphqw zlooeh vxuyh|hg1 Vhfrqgo|/ d vxppdu| ri wkh surshuwlhv ri wkh djjuhjdwh sduwlfohvdqg vrph ri wkh uhtxluhphqwv lpsrvhg rq wkhp zkhq hqforvhg lq wkh pl{wxuh zlooeh jlyhq +vhfwlrq 516,1 Wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh ri frqfuhwh dqg lwv g|qdplfdo fkdu0dfwhu gxh wr wkh rqjrlqj surfhvv ri k|gudwlrq frqvwlwxwh dqrwkhu lvvxh glvfxvvhglq vhfwlrq 518 dqg vhfwlrq 517 ri wklv fkdswhu1 Wkh dprxqw ri zdwhu lq frqfuhwhlv d ghflvlyh sdudphwhu iru wkh gl�huhqw w|shv ri srurvlwlhv wkdw duh iruphg/ wkhluvsdfh glvwulexwlrq dqg frqqhfwlylw| wkhuhe| lq�xhqflqj wkh wudqvsruw surshuwlhvri frqfuhwh1 Wkh gl�huhqw irupv lq zklfk zdwhu lv suhvhqw lq frqfuhwh dqg frqgl0wlrqv iru lwv lqjuhvvlrq duh ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq 5191 Zkhq fhphqw dqg djjuhjdwhvduh pl{hg wr irup frqfuhwh/ d yhu| khwhurjhqhrxv/ pxowl0skdvh pdwhuldo lv re0wdlqhg1 Dowkrxjk erwk wkh fhphqw0sdvwh pdwul{ dqg wkh lqwhuidfh }rqh ehwzhhqfhphqw sdvwh dqg djjuhjdwh sduwlfohv duh lpsruwdqw iru wkh wudqvsruw surshuwlhvri frqfuhwh/ xqghu vrph frqglwlrqv/ lw lv d jrrg dssur{lpdwlrq wr frqvlghu rqo|wkh fhphqw sdvwh dv ehlqj uhsuhvhqwdwlyh1 Dq h{dpsoh ri wkh glvwulexwlrq ri uho0

515 Fhphqw= pdqxidfwxuh dqg frpsrvlwlrq 64

dwlyh yroxphv ri gl�huhqw skdvhv lq fhphqw sdvwh lv jlyhq lq vhfwlrq 51: wrjhwkhuzlwk vrph edvlf htxdwlrqv1 Wkh yduldeohv lq�xhqflqj wkh wudqvsruw surshuwlhvri frqfuhwh wrjhwkhu zlwk vrph ydoxhv iru wkh h�hfwlyh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv duheulh�| vxppdulvhg lq vhfwlrq 51;1

2�2 �i4i?|G 4@?�u@U|�hi @?_ UL4TLt�|�L?

Wkh fhphqwv ri lqwhuhvw lq wkh pdnlqj ri frqfuhwh duh fdoohg k|gudxolf fhphqwvehfdxvh wkh| kdyh wkh surshuw| ri vhwwlqj dqg kdughqlqj xqghuzdwhu e| yluwxh ri dfkhplfdo uhdfwlrq zlwk zdwhu1 K|gudxolf fhphqwv +fodvvl�hg dv= qdwxudo fhphqwv/Sruwodqg fhphqwv dqg kljk0doxplqd fhphqwv, frqvlvw pdlqo| ri vlolfdwhv dqg dox0plqdwhv ri olph1 Fdofduhrxv pdwhuldo dqg vlolfd0/ doxplqd0/ dqg lurq r{lgh0ehdulqjpdwhuldov +fod| ru vkdoh, duh wkh udz pdwhuldov iurp zklfk fhphqw lv rewdlqhg1Wkh sulpdu| pdwhuldov duh �uvw jurxqg dqg wkhuhdiwhu exuqhg dw d folqnhulqjwhpshudwxuh +ri xs wr derxw 4783 �F, lq d odujh urwdu| nloq zkhuh wkh| vlqwhu wrirup d vhulhv ri pruh frpsoh{ plqhudov1 Wkh uhvxowlqj pl{wxuh/ fdoohg folqnhu/diwhu frrolqj lv lqwhujurxqg zlwk j|svxp wr suhyhqw wkh ylrohqw uhdfwlrq ri wkhwul0fdoflxp0doxplqdwh zlwk zdwhu gxulqj k|gudwlrq1 Diwhu vdwlvidfwrulo| julqglqjwkh vl}h ri wkh fhphqw sduwlfohv ehfrphv derxw :3�p> frqirup wr Dphulfdq vwdq0gdugv ^;<`/ wkh rswlpdo vl}h ri wkh fhphqw sduwlfohv vkrxog eh derxw 78�p1 Dqlqglfdwlrq ri wkh ghjuhh ri �qhqhvv ri fhphqw dqg srzghu pdwhuldov/ lv jlyhq e|wkh dprxqw ri vxuidfh duhd shu xqlw pdvv +p2 nj3�,/ xvxdoo| h{suhvvhg dv Eodlqhydoxh1 Wklv sk|vlfdo xqlw/ fkdudfwhulvwlf iru d fhuwdlq w|sh ri fhphqw/ zloo dfwxdoo|eh xvhg wkurxjkrxw wklv wkhvlv1 Wkh ghjuhh ri fu|vwdoolvdwlrq dqg wkh dprxqw ridpruskrxv pdwhuldo suhvhqw lq wkh frrohg folqnhu ghshqgv rq wkh udwh ri frrolqj1Dvvxplqj wkdw fhphqw lv lq iur}hq htxloleulxp/ l1h1 wkh frrohg surgxfwv uhsurgxfhwkh htxloleulxp h{lvwlqj dw folqnhulqj whpshudwxuh/ wkh vdph r{lgh frpsrvlwlrqlv h{shfwhg dovr iru wkh fhphqw srzghu1 Wkh r{lgh frqwhqw lv xvxdoo| phdvxuhgdw folqnhulqj whpshudwxuh1

Wdeoh 514 suhvhqwv wkh pdmru plqhudo frqvwlwxhqwv ri fhphqw wrjhwkhu zlwkwkhlu xvxdo deeuhyldwlrqv lq wkh vwdqgdug frqfuhwh whuplqrorj|�1

Wkh pl{lqj dqg julqglqj ri wkh udz pdwhuldov rffxuv hlwkhu lq zdwhu +zhwsurfhvv, ru gu| +gu| surfhvv,1 Wkh fkrlfh ri surfhvv xvhg lq fhphqw pdqxidfwxuhghshqgv rq wkh kdugqhvv ri xvhg udz pdwhuldov dqg rq wkhlu prlvwxuh frqwhqw+iru wkh gu| surfhvv/ wkh udz phdo kdv wr kdyh d prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri derxw

�A�i t|@?_@h_ ?L|@|�L? �? UL?Uhi|i |iU�?L*L}) @ttLU�@|it |�i uL**L��?} t)4ML*t |L |�i uL*�*L��?} L �_itG � �@�c 5 5��2c � �*2��c 6 6i2��


Wdeoh 514= �@�? UL4TL�?_t Lu Ui4i?|c |�i�h U�i4�U@* uLh4 @?_ |�i �t�@* @MMhi��@|�L?t�

Frpsrxqg R{lgh frpsrvlwlrq Deeuhyldwlrqwulfdoflxp vlolfdwh 6FdR�VlR2 F�Vglfdoflxp vlolfdwh 5FdR�VlR2 F2Vwulfdoflxp doxplqdwh 6FdR�Do2R� F�Dwhwudfdoflxp doxplqrihulwh 7FdR�Do2R��Ih2R� FeDI

315(,1 Qrzdgd|v wkh gu| surfhvv lv suhgrplqdqwo| dssolhg wr plqlplvh wkh hq0huj| frqvxpswlrq1 Qr pdwwhu zkdw surfhvv lv xvhg/ dq lqwlpdwh pl{wxuh ri wkhudz pdwhuldov lv uhtxluhg ehfdxvh sduw ri wkh uhdfwlrqv wkdw wdnh sodfh rffxu e|gl�xvlrq lq vrolg pdwhuldov/ dqg d xqlirup glvwulexwlrq ri pdwhuldov lv hvvhqwldo wrhqvxuh d xqlirup surgxfw1

Riwhq fhphqw lv frqvlghuhg wr eh iruphg pdlqo| ri F�V +83093(, + ^:;`/ ^468`,/d frpsrxqg lghqwl�hg e| lwv vpdoo/ htxlglphqvlrqdo frorxuohvv judlqv dqg nqrzqwr kdyh d kljk uhdfwlylw| zlwk zdwhu1 Wkh vhfrqg frpsrxqg/ F2V rffxuv lq wkhfrrohg folqnhu suhvhuyhg lq lwv �0odehohg irup +wkh �0F2V h{lvwv dw kljk whpshu0dwxuh> zlwk whpshudwxuh ghfuhdvh lw frqyhuwv vxffhvvlyho| wr �/ � dqg � irupv,/uhfrjqlvhg e| lwv urxqghg judlqv/ xvxdoo| vkrzlqj wzlqqlqj1 Wkh rwkhu wzr frp0srxqgv/ F�D dqg FeDI/ frqwdlqlqj doxplqd dqg lurq/ irup uhfwdqjxodu fu|vwdovdqg d vrolg vroxwlrq/ uhvshfwlyho|1 D ihz pdvv shufhqwdjhv ri fhphqw lv khog e|wkh plqru frpsrxqgv +Qd2R/ N2R/ PjR/ WlR2/ Pq2R�,1 Wkhlu uhdfwlrq zlwkvrph djjuhjdwhv frqvwlwxwhv d phfkdqlvp wkdw frqwulexwhv wr wkh ghwhulrudwlrqri frqfuhwh ^:;`1 Wkh revhuyhg uhdfwlrqv ri wkh r{lghv ri vrglxp dqg srwdvvlxp+dovr fdoohg wkh dondolv, zlwk wkh h{lvwhqw vlolfdv lq frqfuhwh ohdg wr wkh rffxuuhqfhri fudfnv wkxv/ wr d uhgxfwlrq lq frqfuhwh gxudelolw|1

Ehvlghv wkh Ruglqdu| Sruwodqg Fhphqw +deeuhyldwhg dv RSF dqg fodvvl�hgdv w|sh L fhphqw,/ wkhuh duh pdq| fhphqw w|shv ehlqj surgxfhg/ l1h1 Frpsrv0lwh +sr}}rodqd/ �| dvk/ vlolfd ixph, Sruwodqg Fhphqwv +w|sh LL,/ EodvwixuqdfhSruwodqg Fhphqw +w|sh LLL,/ Sr}}rodqlf Sruwodqg Fhphqwv +w|sh LY, hwf1

2�2�� *@t|u�h?@Ui �Lh|*@?_ �i4i?|t

Lq wklv wkhvlv Eodvwixuqdfh Sruwodqg Fhphqw zloo eh lqyhvwljdwhg dqg khqfh vrphri lwv surshuwlhv zloo eh eulh�| uhylhzhg1 Eodvwixuqdfh Sruwodqg Fhphqw lv dfrpelqdwlrq ri Sruwodqg fhphqw folqnhu dqg jurxqg judqxodwhg eodvwixuqdfh vodj/jjev/ d uhvw surgxfw ri erwk lurq dqg vwhho lqgxvwulhv1 Lw lv rewdlqhg e| d txlfnfrrolqj ri wkh vodj iroorzhg e| julqglqj1 Lwv fkhplfdo frpsrvlwlrq +lq r{lghv, lv

515 Fhphqw= pdqxidfwxuh dqg frpsrvlwlrq 66

vlplodu wr wkdw ri Ruglqdu| Sruwodqg Fhphqw +olph/ vlolfd/ doxplqd, rqo| wkh|rffxu lq gl�huhqw sursruwlrqv +Wdeoh 515,1

Wkh Hxurshdq Vwdqgdug HQY 4<:04=4<<5 uhfrjqlvhv wkuhh fodvvhv ri Sruwodqgeodvwixuqdfh fhphqw= LLL2D/ LLL2E dqg LLL2F edvhg rq d gl�huhqw udwlr ehwzhhqwkh Sruwodqg fhphqw folqnhu dqg wkh jjev1 Wkh vodj shufhqwdjh iru hdfk ri wkhfodvvhv lv 69098(> 990;3( dqg ;40<8(/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Wkh Eodvwixuqdfh fhphqwsurgxfhg e| wkh Gxwfk frpsdq| HQFL dw wkh LMpxlghq sodqw lv ri FHP LLL2E75/8 OK KV w|sh dqg frqvlvwv 58( ri Sruwodqg fhphqw folqnhu/ :8( ri eodvw0ixuqdfh vodj dqg iru d vpdoo dprxqw ri fdoflxp vxoidwh +FdVRe, wkdw dfwv dv duhdfwlrq uhjxodwru1 Fdoflxp vxoidwh lv suhvhqw dv j|svxp/ dqk|gulwh ru d pl{0wxuh ri wkh wzr/ lq plqhudo ru e|0surgxfw irup/ dqg doorzv iru d odwhu frqwuro riwkh kdughqlqj surfhvv ri wkh fhphqw diwhu frpelqdwlrq zlwk zdwhu1 Edvhg rq lwvsurshuwlhv +vxppdulvhg lq Wdeoh 515,/ wkh Eodvwixuqdfh Sruwodqg Fhphqw ehorqjvwr wkh fdwhjru| cfhphqw zlwk Orz Khdw ri k|gudwlrq*1 Ehfdxvh wkh vodj frqwhqwri wkh Eodvwixuqdfh fhphqw FHP LLL2E lv kljkhu wkdq 98(/ lw vdwlv�hv wkh uhtxluh0phqwv iru fhphqw zlwk Kljk uhvlvwdqfh djdlqvw Vxoidwh dwwdfn +KV,1 D vhfrqgdu|h�hfw gxh wr wkh suhvhqfh ri wkh eodvwixuqdfh vodj lq wkh fhphqw srzghu lv wkhsuhyhqwlrq ri gdpdjh gxh wr dondol0vlolfd uhdfwlrq dqg lqwuxvlrq ri fkorulghv1 Df0fruglqj wr wkh qrupdwlyhv/ wkh frpsuhvvlyh vwuhqjwk ri wkh frqfuhwh pdqxidfwxuhgiurp wklv w|sh ri fhphqw kdv wr eh lq wkh udqjh 75/8 wr 9518Qpp32 diwhu 5;g1

Wdeoh 515= ��i4�U@* UL4TLt�|�L? E�? L �_it� Lu �Lh|*@?_ �i4i?| @?_ M*@t|u�h?@Ui t*@} Ui4i?|t

dbo�

Frpsrxqg Sruwodqg Eodvwixuqdfh

( (FdR 9309: 73083VlR2 4:058 63073Do2R� 60; ;04;Ih2R� 3180319 fd14PjR 31807 30;VR� 50618 fd16dondolv 3160415 fd1319

vodj frqwhqw 0 fd1:9khdw ri k|gudwlrq nMnj3� 7330833 ^;<` 5830733vshfl�f judylw| njp3� 6483 5<83vshfl�f vxuidfh duhd p2 nj3� 0 6<3 + ^<`/ ^;<`,


Shfxoldu iru jjev lv lwv jodvv vwuxfwxuh +uhvsrqvleoh iru lwv uhdfwlylw|,/ rqo| d ihzshufhqw frqvlvwlqj ri fu|vwdoolqh pdwwhu dqg rwkhu plqru frqvwlwxhqwv1 Sulpdu|fu|vwdoolvdwlrq surgxfwv wkdw rffxu zkhq jodvv lv iruphg duh phololwh +pl{wxuhri 5FdR�PjR�5VlR2 dqg 6FdR�Do2R��VlR2, dqg phuzlqlwh +6FdR�PjR�5VlR2,/wkh odwwhu juhdwo| lq�xhqfhv wkh uhdfwlylw| ri wkh vodj1 Wkh lqglylgxdo fkhplfdoxqlwv lq wkh jodvv| vwuxfwxuh ri jjev duh xqv|vwhpdwlf dqg luuhjxoduo| duudqjhg1

2�� }}hi}@|i ThLTih|�it

Vlqfh fhphqw lv wkh prvw h{shqvlyh frpsrqhqw ri frqfuhwh/ lw lv ghvludeoh wr plq0lplvh wkh frvw ri frqfuhwh e| xvlqj wkh vpdoohvw dprxqw ri sdvwh dqg vwloo dfklhyhwkh ghvluhg vwuhqjwk dqg gxudelolw|1 Djjuhjdwhv duh pdlqo| xvhg dv �oohu exw wkh|dovr surylgh frqfuhwh zlwk ehwwhu vwdelolw| dqg uhvlvwdqfh wr ghwhulrudwlrq1 Wkhdprxqw ri sdvwh ghshqgv rq wkh yrlg vsdfh wkdw pxvw eh �oohg dqg wkh wrwdovxuidfh duhd ri wkh djjuhjdwh wkdw pxvw eh frdwhg vxfk wkdw/ gxulqj pl{lqj/ djrrg oxeulfdwlrq ehwzhhq djjuhjdwh sduwlfohv lv uhdolvhg1 Wkh srurvlw| ri d pl{ ridssur{lpdwho| vskhulfdo djjuhjdwh sduwlfohv lv vpdoohu iru d zlgh vl}h glvwulexwlrq1Wklv lv wkh uhdvrq zk| d udqjh ri vl}hv lv xvhg lq lqgxvwu|/ wkh vpdoohu sduwlfohvfdq sdfn ehwzhhq wkh odujhu wkhuhe| ghfuhdvlqj wkh yrlg vsdfh dqg orzhulqj wkhsdvwh uhtxluhphqwv + ^:;`/ ^;<`/ ^468`,1 Wr eh deoh wr vhohfw wkh rswlpdo sursru0wlrq ri judqxodu pdwhuldov/ fhuwdlq dgglwlrqdo surshuwlhv ri wkh djjuhjdwh pxvw ehnqrzq1

Judqxodu djjuhjdwhv/ ghulyhg iurp qdwxudo urfn/ fuxvkhg vwrqh/ qdwxudo judyhodqg vdqgv ru odwho| dovr pdqxidfwxuhg iurp lqgxvwuldo uhvw0surgxfwv/ rffxs| derxw:3 wr ;3( ri wkh yroxph ri frqfuhwh1 Wkh vl}h ri djjuhjdwhv xvhg lq frqfuhwhudqjhv iurp sduwlfohv zlwk gldphwhuv lq wkh udqjh iurp 3138 wr 83 pp1 D pdlqglylvlrq ri djjuhjdwhv lv ehwzhhq �qh djjuhjdwh +vdqg dqg �qh sheeohv,/ zlwkvl}hv udqjlqj iurp 96 �p wr 7 pp/ dqg frduvh djjuhjdwh frpsulvlqj pdwhuldodw ohdvw 8 pp lq vl}h1 Krzhyhu/ wkh xvxdo fodvvl�fdwlrq lq wkh whfkqrorj| rifrqfuhwh lv pdgh rq edvlv ri vshfl�f judylw| +wkh pdvv glylghg e| wkh yroxph riwkh vrolg pdwhuldo h{foxglqj doo sruhv, dv khdy|zhljkw/ qrupdo0zhljkw dqg oljkw0zhljkw ^:;`1 Wkh pd{lpxp djjuhjdwh vl}h +xvxdoo| durxqg 58073 pp, uhvxowv iurpd frpsurplvh ehwzhhq wkh jdlq lq vwuhqjwk gxh wr uhgxfhg zdwhu uhtxluhphqwv+wkh odujhu wkh vl}h ri wkh djjuhjdwh/ wkh vpdoohu wkh vxuidfh duhd wr eh zhwwhgshu xqlw pdvv, dqg wkh zhdnhu erqgv gxh wr wkh glvfrqwlqxlwlhv lqwurgxfhg lqwkh pl{ + ^:;`/ ^98`,1 Dv suhylrxvo| phqwlrqhg/ wkh sduwlfoh vl}h glvwulexwlrq/ rujudglqj/ lv vhohfwhg vxfk dv dq rswlpdo sdfnlqj lv dfklhyhg1 Dq lghdo djjuhjdwh

517 K|gudwlrq ri fhphqw 68

sduwlfoh/ wkdw prvw qdwxudo vdqg dqg judyhov frph forvh wr/ lv rqh wkdw lv forvh wrvskhulfdo lq vkdsh +zhoo urxqghg dqg frpsdfw, zlwk d uhodwlyho| vprrwk vxuidfh+wklv dovr uhvxowv lq wkh vpdoohvw vxuidfh0wr0yroxph udwlr,1 Fuxvkhg vwrqhv duhpxfk pruh dqjxodu +kljkhu vxuidfh0wr0yroxph udwlr, dqg kdyh d urxjkhu vxuidfhwh{wxuh1 Wkxv/ wkh| uhgxfh wkh pryhphqw ri dgmdfhqw sduwlfohv dqg uhtxluh pruhsdvwh iru ixoo frdwlqj + ^:;`/ ^43:`/ ^;<`,1

Djjuhjdwh*v fkhplfdo dqg plqhudorjlfdo frpsrvlwlrq lv dqrwkhu lpsruwdqw idf0wru wr dffrxqw iru> wkh suhvhqfh ri dq| xqghvludeoh lpsxulwlhv +vlow/ fod|/ gluw rurujdqlf pdwwhu, prgl�hv wkh surshuwlhv ri wkh djjuhjdwhv dqg pd| lqwhuihuh zlwkwkh fhphqw0djjuhjdwh erqg dqg fhphqw k|gudwlrq1 Wkh erqg zlwk wkh djjuh0jdwh lv ehwwhu li wkh odwwhu kdv d urxjkhu vxuidfh +gxh wr phfkdqlfdo lqwhuorfn0lqj,> iru vriwhu/ srurxv dqg plqhudorjlfdoo| khwhurjhqhrxv sduwlfohv +olphvwrqhdqg vlolfhrxv djjuhjdwhv,/ vrph fkhplfdo erqgv pd| h{lvw1 Lq dgglwlrq/ srurvlw|/shuphdelolw| dqg devruswlrq surshuwlhv ri wkh djjuhjdwh lq�xhqfh wkh erqg zlwkwkh k|gudwh sdvwh/ wkh zdwhu uhtxluhphqwv ri frqfuhwh dqg dovr lwv uhvlvwdqfh dqgfkhplfdo vwdelolw|1

2�e O)_h@|�L? Lu Ui4i?|

Rqh fdq uhjdug frqfuhwh dw gl�huhqw ohyhov1 Lq wkh vlpsohvw slfwxuh djjuhjdwh sdu0wlfohv duh glvwulexwhg lq d pdwul{ iruphg e| d fhphqw sdvwh1 Wkh fhphqw sdvwh lvd frpelqdwlrq ri fhphqw dqg zdwhu lq d fhuwdlq udwlr +wkh zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr,>lwv erqglqj surshuwlhv duh d uhvxow ri lwv k|gudwlrq1 D vfkhpdwlf slfwxuh ri wkhk|gudwlrq ri d vlqjoh fhphqw sduwlfoh lv suhvhqwhg lq Ilj1 5 +frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,1Lqlwldoo|/ zkhq zdwhu dqg fhphqw duh pl{hg/ zdwhu zloo �oo wkh hpsw| vsdfhv eh0wzhhq wkh fhphqw judlqv1 Diwhu wklv lqlwldo frqwdfw/ zdwhu zloo vwduw k|gudwlqjwkh fhphqw sduwlfohv wkdw zloo ehjlq wr glvvroyh2eohqg1 Wkh uhdfwlrq surgxfwv+yhu| orz vroxeoh lq zdwhu, suhflslwdwh dv dq rxwhu od|hu1 Wkh lqqhu surgxfwv +5lq Ilj1 5 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,/ frqvlvwlqj ri sduwo| k|gudwhg fhphqw dqgiruplqj d pruh frqvrolgdwhg od|hu/ zloo �uvw vxuurxqg wkh xqk|gudwhg fruh +4 lqIlj1 5 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,1 Rqo| ixoo| k|gudwhg surgxfwv +6 lq Ilj1 5 lqwkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq, zloo eh ghsrvlwhg lq wkh zdwhu0�oohg vsdfh +7 lq Ilj1 5 lqwkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq, jlylqj wkh lpsuhvvlrq ri �rffxodwlrq ri wkh vxuidfh1 Wkhsurfhvv ri k|gudwlrq fdq eh uhjdughg dv wkh h{sdqvlrq2 ri wkh fhphqw sduwlfohvlqwr wkh vxuurxqglqj zdwhu �oohg vsdfh e| zd| ri wkhlu qhzo| iruphg k|gudwlrq

2A�i ThLUitt Lu i T@?t�L? Lu Ui4i?| T@h|�U*it _�h�?} �)_h@|�L? �t hiuihhi_ |L @t }hL�|� �?|�i UL?Uhi|i *�|ih@|�hi�


surgxfwv1 Dw dq| vwdjh ri k|gudwlrq wkh fhphqw sdvwh frqwdlqv xquhdfwhg srz0ghu sduwlfohv/ k|gudwhv ri ydulrxv fhphqw frpsrxqgv +fdoflxp vlolfdwh k|gudwhv/fdoflxp k|gur{lgh fu|vwdov/ wudfhv ri rwkhu plqhudo frpsrxqgv, dqg odujh yrlgvsdfhv sduwldoo| �oohg zlwk zdwhu1 K|gudwlrq surgxfwv gr qrw frqwdlq rqo| vrolgk|gudwhv exw dovr wkh lqwhuvwlwldo vsdfh ehwzhhq wkhp= wkh qhzo| jhqhudwhg sruhvsdfh wkxv ehlqj d surgxfw ri k|gudwlrq1

Wkh judgxdo uhgxfwlrq lq vl}h ri wkh lqlwldo fhphqw sduwlfoh dv uhvxow ri k|gud0wlrq kdv ehhq revhuyhg xqghu d plfurvfrsh1 Lw zdv irxqg wkdw/ lq frqwdfw zlwkzdwhu/ wkh judlqv ri fhphqw zhuh k|gudwhg xs wr d ghswk ri 7 �p diwhu 5; gd|v dqgwr ; �p diwhu d |hdu ^85`1 Fdofxodwlrqv ^433` vkrz wkdw/ xqghu frqwlqxrxv frqwdfwzlwk zdwhu/ rqo| fhphqw sduwlfohv vpdoohu wkdq 83 �p zloo eh ixoo| k|gudwhg1 Dvwkh lqlwldo vl}h ri wkh fhphqw sduwlfoh ghfuhdvhv/ wkh k|gudwlrq udwh ghfuhdvhv gxhwr wkh uhgxfwlrq ri wkh dydlodeoh dprxqw ri zdwhu1 Wkh vsdfh lqlwldoo| �oohg zlwkzdwhu +wkh fdsloodu| sruh vsdfh, lv uhsodfhg e| wkh xqlirupo| jurzlqj k|gudwhgjudlqv ri fhphqw1 Erqgv zlwk ydulrxv ghjuhhv ri vwuhqjwk duh hvwdeolvkhg lq wkhfhphqw sdvwh ohdglqj wr lwv frqvrolgdwlrq1

Lq Ilj1 514/ wkh surshuwlhv ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh duh vfkhpdwlfdoo| vxppdulvhg1Lw vwduwv iurp hduo| ehjlqqlqj lq wkh lqwhudfwlrq ri hohphqwv dqg r{lghv lq dqfhphqw folqnhu wr irup wkh fhphqw frpsrxqgv dqg hqg e| wkh irupdwlrq ri k|0gudwlrq surgxfwv dqg fdsloodu| sruhv1

Wkh fkhplfdo2vwrlfklrphwulf uhdfwlrqv ri fhphqw frpsrqhqwv +vhh dovr Wd0eoh 514, wkdw pdlqo| ghvfuleh wkh surfhvv ri k|gudwlrq duh=

5F�V.9K $ FVK.6FK> +514,

5F2V.7K $ FVK.FK> +515,

F�D.9K $ F�DKS> +516,

FeDI.5FK.43K $ F�DKS.F�IKS> +517,

zkhuh vwdqgdug qrwdwlrqv� iurp frqfuhwh whfkqrorj| duh djdlq xvhg1Wkh pdlq surgxfwv lq wkh fhphqw sdvwh duh fdoflxp vlolfdwh k|gudwhv/ FVK/

dqg fdoflxp k|gur{lgh/ FK/ uhvxowlqj iurp wkh uhdfwlrqv ri F�V dqg F2V zlwkzdwhu1 FVK h{lvw lq d ydulhw| ri irupv +wkh grplqdqw rqh lv wkdw ri �eurxvsduwlfohv w|slfdoo| ri 318 �p wr 5 �p orqj dqg 315 �p dfurvv,/ wkhlu sk|vlfdovwuxfwxuh ehlqj yhu| glvrughuhg1 Rq wkh frqwudu|/ FK rffxuv lq wkh irup riwklq kh{djrqdo sodwhv/ xs wr whqv ri plfurphwhuv dfurvv/ zklfk dw odwhu vwdjhv rik|gudwlrq jurz lqwr d pdvvlyh ghsrvlw1

�O O2�c �O �@E�O�2c �5O'��52O�'��@�u25��2u�O2��

517 K|gudwlrq ri fhphqw 6:

4

O

S C

O2 Si Ca Al Fe

COMPONENT ELEMENTS

CaO SiO2 Al2 3 Fe2O3

COMPONENT OXIDES

C3 S C3A C

CEMENT COMPOUNDS

HYDRATIONPRODUCTS

-CSH, CH -C3AH6, C3FH6

-GEL PORES

UNHYDRATEDCEMENT

CAPILLARYPORES

HYDRATION

β 2 AF

Iljxuh 514= 5U�i4@|�U hiThiti?|@|�L? Lu |�i uLh4@|�L? @?_ �)_h@|�L? Lu �Lh|*@?_ Ui4i?| dHbo�

D vpdoo lqlwldo dprxqw ri j|svxp +FdVRe�5K2R, h{lvwv douhdg| lq wkh fh0phqw/ wr suhyhqw wkh ylrohqw uhdfwlrq ri F�D zlwk zdwhu +zklfk rwkhuzlvh zrxogohdg wr lpphgldwh vwl�hqlqj ri wkh sdvwh,1 Wkh uhdfwlrq surgxfwv ri F�D zlwkj|svxp irup d surwhfwlyh frdwlqj rq wkh vxuidfh ri wkh xqk|gudwhg F�D sduwlfohv/uhwduglqj lwv ixuwkhu uhdfwlrq1 Wkh doxplqdwh dqg ihuulwh skdvhv surgxfh lq d �uvwvwdjh hwwulqjlwh +6FdR�Do2R��6FdVRe�65K2R, dqg j|svxp/ wkh �qdo surgxfwv+kdylqj wkh vwdeoh irup ri fxelf fu|vwdov, ehlqj wkh fdoflxp doxplqdwh dqg ihuulwhk|gudwhv/ F�DKS dqg F�IKS/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Dowkrxjk wkh| duh suhvhqw rqo| lqvpdoo dprxqwv/ wkh| kdyh uhohydqfh ehfdxvh ri wkhlu vwuxfwxudo uhodwlrqvkls zlwkwkh rwkhu skdvhv lq fhphqw1

Dowkrxjk qrw frpsohwho| fruuhfw/ wkh FVK skdvh lv xvxdoo| frqvlghuhg wrirup wkh fhphqw jho1 Wklv jho pd| eh frqvlghuhg dv d surgxfw ri k|gudwlrq dqgvwdqgv iru wkh frkhvlyh pdvv ri k|gudwhg fhphqw/ lqfoxglqj wkh jho sruhv1 Jhosruhv duh lqwhufrqqhfwhg lqwhuvwlwldo vsdfhv ehwzhhq wkh jho sduwlfohv/ lq irup ri

6; Frqfuhwh surshuwlhv

qhhgohv ru irlov1 Lw lv dvvxphg wkdw k|gudwlrq surgxfwv fdq qrw suhflslwdwh lqsruhv kdylqj gldphwhuv vpdoohu wkdq derxw 5 qp ^434`/ dqg wklv lv frqvhtxhqwo|ehlqj frqvlghuhg dv wkh gldphwhu ri d vwdeoh jho sruh1 Ehfdxvh wkh jho lv srurxvlw fdq krog odujh txdqwlwlhv ri zdwhu1

Wkh vwrlfklrphwulf k|gudwlrq uhdfwlrqv duh h{rwkhuplf1 Wkxv/ rqh ri wkh phwk0rgv xvhg wr ghwhuplqh wkh surjuhvv ri k|gudwlrq lv e| revhuylqj wkh hyroxwlrq riwkh uhohdvhg khdw1 Lqlwldoo|/ diwhu d �uvw frqwdfw zlwk zdwhu/ d udslg uhohdvh rifdoflxp k|gur{lgh dsshduv/ ohdylqj wkh xqk|gudwhg fhphqw sduwlfohv zlwk dq ds0sur{lpdwho| 43 qp wklfn + ^:;`/ ^;<`, rxwhu od|hu ri FVK/ wkdw iru d fhuwdlq wlphshulrg uhwdugv d ixuwkhu k|gudwlrq1 Wkh surfhvv ri khdw uhohdvh lv dovr lpsruwdqwiru wkh surshuwlhv ri frqfuhwh1 Dv lq jhqhudo frqfuhwh lv nqrzq wr kdyh d orzwkhupdo frqgxfwlylw|/ gxulqj k|gudwlrq lwv lqwhuqdo whpshudwxuh ulvhv1 Ehfdxvhwkh h{whulru ri wkh frqfuhwh frrov idvwhu/ d whpshudwxuh judglhqw rffxuv wkdw pd|fdxvh fudfnlqj1 Wkh uhohdvhg khdw ri k|gudwlrq fdxvhv orvv ri zdwhu wkxv ehlqjdovr uhvsrqvleoh iru wkh vkulqndjh ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh dqg ri frqfuhwh ^468`1 Wrsuhyhqw vkulqndjh dqg wr dfklhyh d jrrg txdolw| ri wkh surgxfw/ wkh dssursul0dwh pl{ kdv wr eh sodfhg lq d vxlwdeoh hqylurqphqw gxulqj wkh hduo| vwdjhv rik|gudwlrq1 Wkh surfhgxuh xvhg wr surprwh wkh surfhvv ri k|gudwlrq ri fhphqwyld frqwuro ri whpshudwxuh dqg prlvwxuh pryhphqw iurp dqg lqwr wkh frqfuhwh lvfdoohg fxulqj1 Lghdoo|/ frqfuhwh uhpdlqv zdwhu0vdwxudwhg wr d odujh ghjuhh xqwlowkh ruljlqdoo| zdwhu0�oohg vsdfh lq wkh iuhvk fhphqw sdvwh kdv ehhq �oohg wr wkhghvluhg h{whqw e| wkh surgxfwv ri k|gudwlrq1 K|gudwlrq dw d pd{lpxp udwh fdqsurfhhg rqo| xqghu frqglwlrqv ri zdwhu vdwxudwlrq dqg lw lv juhdwo| uhgxfhg liwkh uhodwlyh kxplglw| lq wkh fdsloodu| sruhv gursv ehorz ;3(1 Wkh prvwo| xvhgphwkrgv iru fxulqj ri frqfuhwh duh zdwhu fxulqj +frqwlqxrxv frqwdfw zlwk zdwhuri wkh frqfuhwh vxuidfh, dqg phpeudqh fxulqj +wkh vxuidfh ri frqfuhwh lv fryhuhgzlwk sro|hwk|ohqh vkhhwlqj wr suhyhqw orvv ri zdwhu,1

Wkh udwh ri k|gudwlrq dqg lwv khdw uhohdvh ghshqg rq wkh whpshudwxuh dw zklfkk|gudwlrq wdnhv sodfh/ rq wkh frpsrxqg frpsrvlwlrq +w|sh, ri fhphqw/ rq wkhtxdqwlw| ri fhphqw lq wkh pl{ dqg rq wkh �qhqhvv dqg sduwlfoh0vl}h glvwulexwlrqri fhphqw1 Lw pd| dw �uvw vhhp ehvw iru fhphqw wr eh dv �qh dv srvvleoh/ wr kdyhd kljk k|gudwlrq udwh1 Krzhyhu/ wklv zrxog dovr lpso| d kljkhu udwh ri hduo|khdw hyroxwlrq dqg ghvlffdwlrq ohdglqj lq wlph wr d pruh udslg ghwhulrudwlrq rifrqfuhwh zkhq h{srvhg wr dpelhqw dlu1

Zkhq Eodvwixuqdfh Sruwodqg Fhphqw lv pl{hg zlwk zdwhu/ wkh Sruwodqg fh0phqw frpsrqhqwv ehjlq wr k|gudwh �uvw dqg rqo| d vpdoo dprxqw ri jjev kdv dq

518 Plfurvwuxfwxuh ri frqfuhwh 6<

lpphgldwh uhdfwlrq/ ghshqglqj xsrq wkh euhdngrzq ri wkh jodvve e| wkh RK3

lrqv uhohdvhg gxulqj wkh k|gudwlrq ri Sruwodqg fhphqw1 FVK duh iruphg dv duhvxow ri wkh uhdfwlrq ri jjev zlwk wkh j|svxp uhohdvhg e| Sruwodqg fhphqw1 Wkhsurjuhvvlyh uhohdvh ri dondolv e| wkh jjev wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh irupdwlrq ri j|svxpe| Sruwodqg fhphqw/ uhvxowv lq d frqwlqxlqj uhdfwlrq ri jjev ryhu d orqj shulrg1K|gudwlrq ri jjev surgxfhv pruh FVK dqg ohvv olph wkdq Sruwodqg fhphqw dorqhdv wkh eohqg kdv d kljkhu frqwhqw lq vlolfd dqg ohvv olph wkdq Sruwodqg fhphqwdorqh1 FK sod|v d yhu| lpsruwdqw uroh lq wkh surfhvv ri k|gudwlrq ri eohqghg fh0phqwv +pl{wxuh ri Sruwodqg fhphqw zlwk eodvw ixuqdfh vodj dqg2ru �| dvk,1 Erwkjjev dqg �| dvk duh xqdeoh wr frqwlqxh wkhlu uhdfwlrqv zlwkrxw wkh FK surgxfhggxulqj k|gudwlrq ri F�V dqg F2V1

2�D ��UhLt|h�U|�hi Lu UL?Uhi|i

Wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh ri frqfuhwh wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh fkhplfdo erqgv lq�xhqfhv prvwsurshuwlhv ri frqfuhwh1 Lw ghshqgv qrw rqo| rq wkh ruljlqdo sdfnlqj ri fhphqwdqg djjuhjdwh sduwlfohv/ wkh zdwhu0wr0vrolg udwlr/ wkh plqhudo dgpl{wxuhv exw dovrrq wkh xowhulru frqglwlrqv xqghu zklfk k|gudwlrq surfhhgv +whpshudwxuh/ uhod0wlyh kxplglw|/ fxulqj hwf1,1 Dydlodeoh lqirupdwlrq ri wkh vrolg skdvh lv dfklhyhgiurp vwxglhv rq wkh vkdsh dqg vl}h/ erqglqj ri wkh vxuidfhv/ vxuidfh duhd dqghyhq ghqvlw| zkloh wkrvh rq wkh qrq0vrolg skdvh dgguhvv wr srurvlw|/ sruh vkdshdqg sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq1 Wr dgg wr wkh frpsoh{lw|/ doo wkhvh surshuwlhv duhlqwhughshqghqw1 Wkh pruskrorj| ri wkh vrolg skdvh kdv ehhq ghvfulehg lq wkhsuhylrxv vhfwlrq/ wklv vhfwlrq zloo irfxv rq wkh ghvfulswlrq ri wkh yrlg skdvh1 Lqwkh prvw jhqhudo zd|/ wkh gl�huhqw w|shv ri sruhv suhvhqw lq frqfuhwh +jho sruhv/vpdoo dqg odujh fdsloodu| sruhv/ forvhg sruhv/ lqn0erwwoh sruhv/ srurvlw| dvvrfl0dwhg zlwk sdvwh0djjuhjdwh lqwhuidfldo }rqhv/ plfurfudfnv/ srurvlw| lq djjuhjdwh/yrlgv dqg hqwudsshg dlu, dqg wkh zd| wkh| duh glvwulexwhg/ gh�qh wkh plfurvwuxf0wxuh ri frqfuhwh ^<9`1 Iru sudfwlfdo uhdvrqv frqfuhwh srurvlw| lv glylghg lqwr wzrfodvvhv ^57`=

� wkh srurvlw| lq wkh sdvwh pdwul{/ hvwlpdwhg iurp lqyhvwljdwlrqv rq wkh fhphqwsdvwh1

� wkh srurvlw| dvvrfldwhg zlwk wkh djjuhjdwh dqg sdvwh lqwhuidfh/ wkdw frqwdlqvdovr plfurfudfnv/ ghwhuplqhg gluhfwo| rq djjuhjdwh0frqwdlqlqj pdwhuldov1

e#�h�?} |�i uLh4@|�L? Lu Ui4i?| U*�?!ih �? |�i !�*? @ML�| �fI Lu |�i 4@|ih�@* MiUL4it *�^��_|�@| M) t�Mti^�i?| ULL*�?} Uh)t|@**�tit� OL�i�ihc @ Uih|@�? uh@U|�L? ��** �?_ihULL* |L }*@tt�


Lpphgldwho| diwhu wkh pl{lqj ri fhphqw sdvwhD/ zdwhu vxuurxqglqj wkh gu|fhphqw judlqv lv frqvlghuhg wr �oo dqg dfwxdoo| irup wkh zkroh qhwzrun ri fdsloodu|srurvlw| +vpdoo dqg odujh sruhv zlwk gldphwhuv ri wkh rughu ri �p,1 Wkh fdsloodu|srurvlw| ghshqgv rq wkh zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr dqg rq wkh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/ dwdq| vwdjh wkh fdsloodu| sruhv uhsuhvhqw wkdw sduw ri wkh yroxph wkdw kdv qrw |hwehhq �oohg e| wkh surgxfwv ri k|gudwlrq1 Lq zhoo0k|gudwhg/ orz zdwhu0fhphqwudwlr sdvwhv/ wkh fdsloodu| sruhv udqjh lq vl}hv ehwzhhq 43 wr 83 qp zkloh dwkljk zdwhu0fhphqw udwlrv/ dw hduo| vwdjhv ri k|gudwlrq wkh fdsloodu| sruhv fdqeh dv odujh dv 6 wr 8 �p ^:;`1 Dv k|gudwlrq surfhhgv/ wkh dprxqw ri k|gudwlrqsurgxfwv lqfuhdvhv dqg wkh jho sruhv zloo eorfn dw d fhuwdlq wlph wkh fdsloodulhv/lqwurgxflqj glvfrqwlqxlwlhv lq wkh qhwzrun ri fdsloodu| sruhv vr wkdw wkh| wxuq lqwrsruhv lqwhufrqqhfwhg rqo| e| jho sruhv1 Wkh orzhu wkh zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr/ wkhhduolhu wklv vhjphqwdwlrq rffxuv + ^7:`/ ^;<`/ ^43:`,1 Iru d zdwhu fhphqw udwlr ri317; wkh dssur{lpdwh wlph0vfdoh dw zklfk fdsloodulhv ehfrph vhjphqwhg lv ehwzhhq: dqg 47 gd|v1 Iru hdfk w|sh ri fhphqw/ iru d fhuwdlq ydoxh ri wkh zdwhu0fhphqwudwlr +orzhu wkdq 318, doo fhphqw lv k|gudwhg dqg doo fdsloodu| sruhv uhpryhg1Wkhvh pl{wxuhv duh wkxv/ yhu| frpsdfw1 Krzhyhu/ li rqh lqfuhdvhv wkh zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr/ doo wkh fhphqw fdq k|gudwh zlwk wkh frpsurplvh wkdw dovr fdsloodu|sruhv zloo vwduw ehlqj suhvhqw1

Lw zdv phqwlrqhg ehiruh wkdw d qrplqdo gldphwhu ri wkh jho sruhv lv durxqg506 qp +rqh rughu ri pdjqlwxgh juhdwhu wkdq wkh vl}h ri zdwhu prohfxohv, dqg lw lvdovr d zhoo0nqrzq idfw wkdw jho sruhv rffxs| derxw 5;( ri wkh wrwdo yroxph ri wkhjho phdqlqj wkdw jho ri vlplodu surshuwlhv lv iruphg dw doo vwdjhv ^<<`/ l1h1 sduwlfohvri wkh vdph vl}h duh frqvwdqwo| surgxfhg dqg wkh douhdg| h{lvwlqj jho sduwlfohvgr qrw jurz lq vl}h1 Wzr w|shv ri erqgv duh dvvxphg wr eh uhvsrqvleoh iru wkhfrkhvlrq ri wkh jho= rqh lv gxh wr wkh sk|vlfdo dwwudfwlrq 0Ydq ghu Zddov irufhv0ehwzhhq vrolg vxuidfhv vhsdudwhg rqo| e| wkh jho sruhv> wkh rwkhu lv uhodwhg wr wkhfkhplfdo erqgv olqnlqj wkh jho sduwlfohv dqg nqrzq wr eh pxfk vwurqjhu wkdq Ydqghu Zddov irufhv ^468`1 Jho sruhv duh nqrzq wr eh lpsruwdqw iru wkh k|jurvfrslfsurshuwlhv ri d srurxv pdwhuldo +zdwhu0ydsrxu vruswlrq fkdudfwhulvwlfv,1 Wkh|vhhp wr frqfhqwudwh dw vrph vlwhv lq wkh kdughqhg sdvwh iruplqj lvrodwhg foxvwhuvri frqqhfwhg jho sruhv vxuurxqghg e| odujhu fdsloodu| sruhv ^<9`1

Ehwzhhq jho dqg fdsloodu| sruhv +l1h1/ ehwzhhq 5 qp dqg 83 qp, d wudqvlwlrqgrpdlq lv vlwxdwhg zkhuh hohfwurvwdwlf lqwhudfwlrqv ehwzhhq wkh sruh zdoov dqgwkh oltxlg h{whqg ryhu d vljql�fdqw iudfwlrq ri wkh furvv0vhfwlrqdo duhd1

DNt�@**) Ui4i?| T@t|i �? UL?Uhi|i LUU�T�it uhL4 2�I |L �SI Lu |�i |L|@* �L*�4ic �?i @}}hi�}@|i Mi|�ii? 2D��fI @?_ UL@hti @}}hi}@|i �**t |�i hi4@�?�?} �L*�4i dbfo�

518 Plfurvwuxfwxuh ri frqfuhwh 74

Prvw lqyhvwljdwlrqv rq fhphqw sdvwh vkrz d eurdg sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq ^<9`1Wkh sruhv ydu| lq vkdsh exw wkh| irup dq lqwhufrqqhfwhg v|vwhp udqgrpo| glv0wulexwhg wkurxjk wkh fhphqw sdvwh1 D vwxg| rq wkh fhphqw sdvwh ^499` xvlqjphufxu| lqwuxvlrq vkrzhg d wkuhvkrog gldphwhu wkdw ghfuhdvhg zlwk wkh dprxqwri k|gudwlrq1 Vrph dxwkruv ^494` frqvlghu 314�p dv wkh orzhu gldphwhu olplw rifdsloodu| srurvlw|1 Qhylooh ^;<` frqvlghuv wkdw pdwxuh sdvwhv frqwdlq ihz sruhvodujhu wkdq 4�p/ prvw sruhv ehlqj vpdoohu wkdq 314�p1 Wkh phgldq vl}h ri fds0loodu| sruhv lv 416�p zkloh jho sruhv duh pxfk vpdoohu/ kdylqj ohvv wkdq 5 ru 6 qplq qrplqdo gldphwhu1 Pdhndzd ^:4` xvhv wkh LXSDF fodvvl�fdwlrq zlwk d udglxvri fdsloodu| sruhv udqjlqj ehwzhhq 3134�p wr doprvw 433�p zkloh wkh jho sruhvfryhu wkh 314 qp wr 3138�p grpdlq1

Wkh idfw wkdw sruh vl}hv duh jlyhq dv gldphwhuv lv d frqyhqwlrq> wkh sruhv duhqhyhu rqo| f|olqgulfdo ru vskhulfdo lq vkdsh1 Wkh udglxv2gldphwhu uhsuhvhqwv dvskhuh zlwk wkh vdph udwlr ri yroxph wr vxuidfh duhd1 Rqo| pdfursruhv +odujhuwkdq 314�p lq gldphwhu, frph forvh wr d vskhulfdo vkdsh ^:;`1 Krzhyhu/ vskhulfdosruhv pd| ruljlqdwh iurp uhvlgxdo dlu exeeohv wkdw pd| eh hqwudsshg ru hqwudlqhggxulqj wkh pl{lqj rshudwlrq ri frqfuhwh/ ru iurp lpshuihfw fhphqw sduwlfoh sdfn0lqj1 Wkh vl}h ri wkh hqwudsshg yrlgv pd| eh dv kljk dv 6qp zkloh wkdw ri wkhhqwudlqhg exeeohv udqjhv iurp 83 wr 533�p1

Wkh vhfrqg w|sh ri srurvlw| lq wkh fodvvl�fdwlrq deryh lv uhodwhg wr wkh erqgri dq djjuhjdwh lq wkh fhphqw sdvwh/ dovr fdoohg wkh djjuhjdwh0sdvwh lqwhuidfldo}rqh1 Wkh lqwhuidfldo }rqh lv iruphg qrw rqo| durxqg d frduvh djjuhjdwh sduwlfohexw dovr durxqg wkh �qh rqhv1 Vrph h{shulphqwdo lqyhvwljdwlrqv uhsruw wkdw wkhwklfnqhvv ri wkh lqwhuidfldo }rqh olhv ehwzhhq 48 dqg 83�p/ wkh pdmru gl�huhqfhviurp wkh vwuxfwxuh ri wkh exon sdvwh dulvlqj lq wkh dssur{lpdwho| �uvw 48 wr 53�piurp wkh sk|vlfdo lqwhuidfh + ^;3`/ ^45;`/ ^:4`,1 Krzhyhu/ d frqvwdqw wklfnqhvv riwkh lqwhuidfh pd| eh dvvxphg iru wkh fdvh wkh djjuhjdwh sduwlfoh vl}h lv yhu|odujh frpsduhg wr wkdw ri fhphqw sduwlfohv1 Lq uhdolw|/ wkh lqwhuidfh wklfnqhvvghshqgv rq wkh djjuhjdwh sduwlfoh vl}h1 Iru wkh vdph sdvwh frpsrvlwlrq dqgdw wkh vdph ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq wkh suhvhqfh ri frduvh djjuhjdwhv uhvxowv lq dqlqfuhdvhg srurvlw|> wkh suhvhqfh ri �qh djjuhjdwhv kdv d vlplodu exw vpdoohu h�hfw+ ^495`/ ^:4`,1 H{shulphqwdo uhvxowv vxvwdlqhg e| frpsxwhu vlpxodwlrqv lqglfdwhwkdw wkh srurvlw| ri wkh lqwhuidfldo }rqh +hvshfldoo| qhdu wkh djjuhjdwh vxuidfh,pd| eh xs wr wkuhh wlphv wkh srurvlw| ri wkh exon fhphqw sdvwh + ^477`/ ^53`,1

Wkh suhvhqfh ri frduvh djjuhjdwhv dvvrfldwhg zlwk wkh vkulqndjh ri wkh fhphqwsdvwh lv frqvlghuhg ri ehlqj wkh fdxvh iru wkh rffxuuhqfh ri plfurfudfnv1 Gxulqjgu|lqj/ wkh fhphqw sdvwh vsolwv dzd| iurp wkh djjuhjdwh vxuidfh> wkh sdwk ri d


dim

ensi

on

s (m

)

10-9

10-8

10-7

10-6

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

Gel poresInterparticle spacingbetween CSH sheets

Mezopores

CSH approximate thickness

CSH approximate length

CH approximate thickness

Capillarypores

Microcracks

Aggregate-pastetransition zone

Size of fineaggregates

Size of cementparticles

Average distancebetween aggregateparticles

Entrainedair bubbles

Size of coarseaggregates

Iljxuh 515= #�4i?t�L?@* h@?}i Lu tL*�_t @?_ TLhit �? |�i �)_h@|i_ Ui4i?| T@t|i @?_ UL?Uhi|i�

fudfn zloo whqg wr uxq dorqj wkh zhdnhvw sduwv ri wkh vshflphq dqg frqwulexwh wrwkh exon plfurvwuxfwxuh1 Sdudgr{lfdoo|/ wkh frduvh djjuhjdwhv dovr dfw lq suhyhqw0lqj wkh rshqlqj ri d vlqjoh zlgh fudfn/ khwhurjhqhlw| ri frqfuhwh ehlqj lq d zd|ehqh�fldo1 Dq xsshu olplw ri 314pp kdv ehhq vxjjhvwhg iru wkhvh plfurfudfnvdqg dv orqj dv wkh| duh vwdeoh/ wkh| gr qrw lq�xhqfh wkh frqfuhwh vwuhqjwk1

Frqvhtxhqwo|/ lq frqfuhwh/ wkhuh duh glvfrqwlqxlwlhv dw dq| ohyho/ krzhyhuvpdoo1 VHP lqyhvwljdwlrqv ri Sklolssl hw do1 ^<9` rq gl�huhqw pruwduv vkrz wkdw/zlwk lqfuhdvlqj pdjql�fdwlrq/ rqh fdq vfdq wkurxjk d eurdg udqjh ri vl}hv= iurpwkh judlqv ri vdqg dqg dlu lqfoxvlrqv ri wkh vdph phdq zlgwk ri 4330533�p zkhuhwkh sdvwh dsshduv dv dq krprjhqhrxv pdwhuldo ehwzhhq wkh vrolg judlqv +pdjql0�fdwlrq 58{,> wr dq h{whqghg qhwzrun ri �vvxuhv +6�p zlgwk, vxuurxqglqj wkhjudlqv dqg hvwdeolvklqj eulgjhv wkurxjk wkh zkroh phglxp iru �xlg wudqvsruw+pdjql�fdwlrq 533{, dqg �qdoo| wr wkh surgxfwv ri k|gudwlrq revhuyhg dv srurxvlvodqgv/ l1h1 d qhwzrun ri jho dqg vpdoo fdsloodu| sruhv vxuurxqghg e| odujhu fds0loodu| sruhv +pdjql�fdwlrqv deryh 6533{,1 Ilj1 515 suhvhqwv d vxppdu| ri wkh

519 Zdwhu frqwhqw ri frqfuhwh 76

glphqvlrqv ri gl�huhqw skdvhv wr eh hqfrxqwhuhg lq frqfuhwh1Iru eodvwixuqdfh Sruwodqg fhphqwv/ wkh sdvwh plfurvwuxfwxuh zdv revhuyhg wr

ehfrph ghqvhu wkdq wkdw ri ruglqdu| Sruwodqg fhphqw/ lwv sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrqehlqj vkliwhg wr orzhu ydoxhv +wkh phgldq sruh vl}h lv vpdoohu,1 Jjev kdv �qhusduwlfohv wkdq Sruwodqg fhphqw zklfk lpsuryhv wkh sduwlfoh sdfnlqj dqg hqvxuhvd ehwwhu glvshuvlrq ri wkh fhphqwlwlrxv sduwlfohv1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ pruh ri wkh sruhvsdfh ehfrphv �oohg zlwk FVK ^;<` uhvxowlqj lq d kljkhu dprxqw ri jho sruhv +orzhudprxqw ri fdsloodu| sruhv ^5`,1 Dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh dprxqw ri jjev lv dovr jhqhudoo|nqrzq wr uhgxfh wkh zdwhu ghpdqg ri wkh sdvwh1 Krzhyhu/ iru vpdoo zdwhu fhphqwudwlrv wkh vodj pruwdu glvsod|hg odujh sruhv dqg srvvleoh hyhq plfurfudfnv lqlwv vwuxfwxuh1 Plfurvfrslf lqyhvwljdwlrqv vkrzhg wkdw frqfuhwhv frqwdlqlqj jjevh{klelw d pruh judqxodwhg vwuxfwxuh wkdq wkh w|slfdo krprjhqhrxv dsshdudqfhri wkh sdvwh lq Sruwodqg fhphqw frqfuhwhv1 Wklv lv olnho| gxh wr d gl�huhqfh lqwkh ghjuhh ri uhdfwlylw| ri wkh frpsrqhqw sduwlfohv ru wkh ydulrxv pdqqhuv righyhorsphqw1 Surorqjhg prlvw fxulqj ri frqfuhwh frqwdlqlqj jjev lv lpsruwdqwehfdxvh wkh lqlwldo orz udwh ri k|gudwlrq uhvxowv lq d v|vwhp ri fdsloodu| sruhvzklfk doorzv wkh orvv ri zdwhu xqghu gu|lqj frqglwlrqv1 Li wkdw kdsshqv/ k|gudwlrqzloo eh whuplqdwhg suhpdwxuho|1

2�S @|ih UL?|i?| Lu UL?Uhi|i

Zdwhu lq frqfuhwh kdv d vshfldo uroh/ lw lv suhvhqw iurp wkh ehjlqqlqj dqg lw lv dqhfhvvdu| lqjuhglhqw iru wkh k|gudwlrq ri fhphqw wkdw zloo irup wkh sdvwh wr krogwkh djjuhjdwhv lq wkh pl{wxuh wrjhwkhu1

Jhqhudoo|/ zdwhu lq frqfuhwh frqvlvwv ri wkdw dgghg wr wkh pl{ dqg wkdw khoge| wkh djjuhjdwh dw wkh wlph zkhq lw hqwhuv wkh pl{hu +wkh ehvw fkrlfh iru dqhtxloleulxp prlvwxuh vwdwh ri djjuhjdwh lq frqfuhwh lv vdwxudwhg vxuidfh gu|/ l1h1doo sruhv �oohg zlwk zdwhu exw qr �op ri zdwhu rq wkh vxuidfh ^;4`,1 Dv wkh dprxqwri zdwhu/ �oolqj wkh sruhv ri wkh djjuhjdwh/ lqwhudfwv olwwoh zlwk wkh sdvwh lw fdqeh frqvlghuhg qhjoljleoh1 Lq wkh iuhvk sdvwh/ djjuhjdwhv/ fhphqw dqg zdwhu duhlqwhupl{hg/ wkh zdwhu iruplqj d fdsloodu| v|vwhp ehwzhhq wkh xqk|gudwhg fhphqwsduwlfohv1 Hqrxjk zdwhu kdv wr eh suhvhqw lq wkh pl{ vxfk wkdw ixoo k|gudwlrqzloo eh uhdfkhg/ l1h1 iru wkh �oolqj ri wkh jho sruhv ehlqj iruphg +ydsrxulvdeohzdwhu, dqg iru wkh fkhplfdo uhdfwlrqv zlwk wkh vlolfdwhv +qrq0ydsrxulvdeoh zdwhu,S1Gxulqj k|gudwlrq/ wkh vxuidfh duhd ri wkh vrolg skdvh lqfuhdvhv dqg d odujh dprxqw

SW? UL?Uhi|i |iU�?L*L})c �@TL�h�3@M*i @?_ ?L?��@TL�h�3@M*i �@|ih @hi _i?L|i_ M) i�@TL�h@M*i@?_ ?L?�i�@TL�h@M*ic hitTiU|��i*)�


ri ydsrxulvdeoh zdwhu ehfrphv dgvruehg rqwr lw1 Li gxulqj irupdwlrq qr zdwhupryhphqw wr dqg iurp wkh frqfuhwh lv shuplwwhg/ wkh jho lv ixoo| vdwxudwhg zlwkzdwhu1 Wkh jho zdwhu lv vwurqjo| erxqg lq wkh jho sruhv dqg fdqqrw pryh lqwkh fdsloodulhv wr sduwlflsdwh lq wkh k|gudwlrq ri wkh vwloo xqk|gudwhg fhphqw1Wkh dprxqw ri qrq0ydsrxulvdeoh zdwhu lqfuhdvhv dv k|gudwlrq surfhhgv1 Lq ixoo|k|gudwhg fhphqw wkh sursruwlrq ri qrq0ydsrxulvdeoh zdwhu lv 56( e| pdvv ri wkhdqk|gurxv pdwhuldo +gu| fhphqw, ^9<`1

Dowkrxjk/ dv douhdg| phqwlrqhg deryh/ rqh xvxdoo| glylghv wkh zdwhu khoglq frqfuhwh ehwzhhq ydsrxulvdeoh dqg qrq0ydsrxulvdeoh/ dffruglqj wr zkhwkhu ruqrw lw fdq eh uhpryhg/ d pruh suhflvh fodvvl�fdwlrq/ lqglfdwlqj dovr wkh gl�huhqwghjuhhv ri �upqhvv/ lv suhvhqwhg ehorz + ^;<`/ ^468`,=

� fdsloodu| zdwhu frqwdlqhg lq wkh fdsloodulhv zlwk vl}hv juhdwhu wkdq 3138�p>lwv uhprydo grhv qrw fdxvh dq| yroxph fkdqjh lq frqwudu| zlwk wkh zdwhu khoge| fdsloodu| whqvlrq lq fdsloodulhv ri vl}h 5 wr 83qp +wudqvlwlrq grpdlq, zklfk rquhprydo pd| fdxvh vkulqndjh ri wkh v|vwhp1

� jho zdwhu +Ilj1 5 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,

� dgvruehg zdwhu prohfxohv dw wkh vxuidfh ri wkh jho sduwlfohv xqghuwkh lq�xhqfh ri dwwudfwlyh irufhv1 Lw kdv ehhq vxjjhvwhg wkdw e| k|gurjhq erqglqjxs wr vl{ prohfxodu od|huv ri zdwhu fdq eh khog ^:;`1 Lwv wrwdo uhprydo fdxvhvvkulqndjh ri wkh k|gudwhg fhphqw sdvwh1

� lqwhuod|hu ru }hrolwlf zdwhu vlwxdwhg ehwzhhq wkh vxuidfhv ri fhuwdlqsodqhv lq d fu|vwdo +hvshfldoo| dvvrfldwhg zlwk wkh FVK skdvh, lv xvxdoo| d prqr0prohfxodu od|hu khog e| k|gurjhq erqglqj dqg uhtxluhv vwurqj gu|lqj> wklv orvvohdgv wr d vwurqj vkulqndjh ri wkh FVK vwuxfwxuh1 Lw dovr grhv qrw pryh uhdglo|xqghu wkh dssolfdwlrq ri sruh suhvvxuh judglhqwv1

� fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg +erxqg, zdwhu zlwk wkh vlolfdwhv +sduw ri wkh vlolfdwhvvrolg vwuxfwxuh,1

Ehvlghv e| wkh fxulqj frqglwlrqv/ wkh klvwru| ri frqfuhwh0zdwhu frqwhqw lv ixu0wkhu lq�xhqfhg e| wkh dpelhqw kxplglw| dqg whpshudwxuh dw zklfk wkh frqfuhwh lvvwruhg1 Iru h{dpsoh/ li wkh uhodwlyh kxplglw| idoov ehorz 78(/ wkh fdsloodu| sruhvgu| rxw exw wkh jho sruhv zloo vwloo frqwdlq dgvruehg zdwhu1 Zdwhu lqjuhvvlrqru uhprydo dw gl�huhqw vwuxfwxudo ohyhov ghshqgv rq erwk uhodwlyh kxplglw| dqgwhpshudwxuh frqglwlrqlqj ri frqfuhwh1 Vfkqhlghu ^459` uhsruwv wkdw zkhq frqfuhwhlv khdwhg wr 433�F/ fdsloodu| zdwhu vwduwv ehlqj orvw1 Wkh dprxqw ri ydsrxulv0deoh2jho zdwhu lv xvxdoo| ghwhuplqhg e| wkh orvv xsrq gu|lqj ^43:` dw 438�F1 Dw4;3�F wkh dgvruehg zdwhu lv dovr uhpryhg1 Ghk|gudwlrq ri wkh FK ehjlqv dw833�F dqg �qdoo|/ dw hyhq kljkhu whpshudwxuhv +durxqg :33�F, wkh fkhplfdoo|

51: Uhodwlyh yroxphv 78

frpelqhg zdwhu lq wkh FVK frpsrxqgv lv uhpryhg1 Lq whupv ri uhodwlyh kxplg0lw|/ lw lv h{shulphqwdoo| nqrzq + ^98`/ ^:4`, wkdw hyhq li frqfuhwh lv h{srvhg wr wkhvdph frqglwlrqv/ lwv zdwhu frqwhqw lv gl�huhqw xqghu gu|lqj dqg zhwwlqj1 Wklvk|vwhuhvlv0w|sh ri ehkdylrxu lv gxh wr lqn0erwwoh h�hfwv/ gl�huhqfhv lq wkh hqhuj|ri dgvruswlrq dqg ghvruswlrq ri zdwhu prohfxohv wr wkh plfursrurxv vxuidfh/ hwf1Wkxv/ lq wkh udqjh 63043( UK judgxdo uhprydo ri lqwhuod|hu zdwhu iurp wkh hgjhvrffxuv zkloh iru 4305( UK ixuwkhu uhprydo lv dffrpsdqlhg dovr e| vkulqndjh riwkh vshflphq1 Krzhyhu/ d vljql�fdqw dprxqw ri lqwhuod|hu zdwhu uhvlghv lq wkhFVK vwuxfwxuh hyhq dw yhu| orz uhodwlyh kxplglw|/ vhyhuh gu|lqj frqglwlrqv ehlqjuhtxluhg wr uhpryh lw ^:4`1 Uh0hqwu| ri zdwhu judgxdoo| rffxuv ryhu wkh hqwluhudqjh ri uhodwlyh kxplglwlhv1

2�. +i*@|��i �L*�4it

Iurp wkh lqlwldo pl{ ri fhphqw dqg zdwhu/ wkurxjkrxw wkh surfhvv ri k|gudwlrq/wkh glvwulexwlrq ri wkh yroxphv ri wkh surgxfwv lq wkh fhphqw sdvwh fkdqjhvfrqwlqxrxvo|1 Wklv glvwulexwlrq fkdqjhv djdlq zkhq rqh dggv wkh djjuhjdwhvwr wkh pl{1 Lw lv wkxv zruwkzkloh wr wu| wr uhodwh wkh dprxqw ri wkh uhodwlyhyroxphv wr vrph suhsdudwlrq sdudphwhuv +l1h1 zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr/ lqlwldo yroxphri fhphqw2srzghu,1 Wr looxvwudwh wkh hyroxwlrq ri wkh uhodwlyh yroxphv lq wkhk|gudwhg fhphqw sdvwh/ zh zloo �uvw gh�qh vrph ri wkh hpsor|hg whuplqrorj|1

Dw dq| vwdjh ri k|gudwlrq wkh fhphqw sdvwh frqvlvwv ri xqk|gudwhg fhphqw/k|gudwlrq surgxfwv dqg uhvlgxdo fdsloodu| vsdfh1

41 Wkh xqk|gudwhg fhphqw frqvlvwv ri xquhdfwhg fhphqw srzghu sduwlfohv1

51 Wkh k|gudwlrq surgxfwv +dovr fdoohg k|gudwhg fhphqw/ jho surgxfw/ jhosdvwh ru vlpso| jho, duh frpsrvhg ri=

� wkh vrolg surgxfwv ri k|gudwlrq +jho vrolgv,/ lqfoxglqj wkh vrolg surgxfwv

dqg wkh fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu +qrq0uhprydeoh zdwhu,1 Wkh iudfwlrq ri qrq0ydsrxulvdeoh zdwhu./ */ h{suhvvhg shu xqlw pdvv ri k|gudwhg fhphqw lv xvxdoo|ghwhuplqhg iurp wkh vwrlfklrphwulf uhdfwlrqv ri k|gudwlrq +vhfwlrq 517,1

� wkh jho sruhv1 Dw dq| vwdjh ri k|gudwlrq wkh jho sruhv duh frqvlghuhgzdwhu �oohg ^;<`1

.W? UL?Uhi|i |ih4�?L*L})c |�i @4L�?| Lu U�i4�U@**) UL4M�?i_ �@|ih �t _i?L|i_ M) q� A�it@4i t)4ML* �? h@_L? hiti@hU� _i?L|it |�i T@h|�|�L? ULhhiU|i_ TLhLt�|) |�@| ��** Mi _i�?i_ �?U�@T|ih e Lu |��t |�it�t� �t |�i 4@�? t�M�iU| L?i �?�it|�}@|it �t h@_L?c |�i _iU�t�L? �@t 4@_i|L !iiT |�i h@_L? ?L|@|�L?t�


� wkh lqwhuod|hu sruhv1 Wkhvh sruhv frpsulvh wkh yroxph ri zdwhu uhvlglqjehwzhhq wkh od|hu vwuxfwxuhv ri FVK1

Jho zdwhu lqfoxghv ehvlghv wkh dgvruehg zdwhu +suhvhqw lq wkh jho sruhv,/ wkhlqwhuod|hu zdwhu +vhh dovr Ilj1 5 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,1

Lqghshqghqw rq wkh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq ri wkh srzghu/ �/ wkh fkdudfwhulvwlfjho srurvlw|/ %S� uhsuhvhqwv d iudfwlrq ri 315; iurp wkh wrwdo yroxph ri wkh jho+vhfwlrq 518,1

61Wkh uhvlgxdo fdsloodu| vsdfh frqvlvwv ri zdwhu0�oohg dqg2ru hpsw| +dlu0�oohg,fdsloodulhv1

Iru d vhdohg vshflphq zlwk qr zdwhu pryhphqw wr ru iurp wkh v|vwhp dv zhoo dviru d vshflphq fxuhg xqghu zdwhu/ dw dq| vwdjh ri k|gudwlrq �/ wkh lqlwldo devroxwhyroxph ri gu| fhphqw dqg zdwhu zkhq lqlwldoo| pl{hg duh htxdo wr wkh yroxphri wkh fhphqw sdvwh/ YR@r|e +p�, frqvlvwlqj ri xqk|gudwhg fhphqw/ k|gudwlrqsurgxfwv dqg uhvlgxdo fdsloodu| vsdfh1 Dv d jhqhudo uxoh doo yroxphv gh�qhg lqzkdw iroorzv duh h{suhvvhg shu xqlw yroxph ri wkh sdvwh =

YR +p�p3�,= lqlwldo uhodwlyh yroxph ri gu| fhphqw>Y� +p�p3�,= lqlwldo uhodwlyh yroxph ri zdwhu lq wkh pl{>ZR +njp3�,= lqlwldo uhodwlyh pdvv ri gu| fhphqw>Z� +njp3�,= lqlwldo uhodwlyh pdvv ri zdwhu>Y�S +p�p3�,= uhodwlyh yroxph ri xqk|gudwhg fhphqw lq wkh sdvwh>Y}R +p�p3�,= uhodwlyh yroxph ri k|gudwhg fhphqw +jho surgxfwv,>Y}r +p�p3�,= uhodwlyh yroxph ri jho vrolgv>Z}r +njp3�,= uhodwlyh pdvv ri jho vrolgv>YSS� +p�p3�,= uhodwlyh yroxph ri fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu>Y}� +p�p3�,= uhodwlyh yroxph ri jho zdwhu>Y�S +p

�p3�,= uhodwlyh yroxph ri uhvlgxdo fdsloodu| zdwhu>YeS +p�p3�,= uhodwlyh yroxph ri uhvlgxdo fdsloodu| sruhv1Xvlqj wkh qrwdwlrqv deryh rqh �qgv=

YR . Y� @ Y�S . Y}R . Y�S . YeS @ 4= +518,

Wkh vshfl�f judylw| ri wkh surgxfwv ri k|gudwlrq ri fhphqw lv vxfk wkdw wkh|rffxs| d odujhu yroxph frpsduhg wr wkh devroxwh yroxph ri xqk|gudwhg fhphqwexw vpdoohu wkdq wkh vxp ri yroxphv ri wkh gu| fhphqw dqg wkh qrq0uhprydeohzdwhu ehfdxvh ri wkh fkdqjh lq zdwhu ghqvlw| iurp oltxlg skdvh +�� @<<: njp3�

dw 58�F dqg 4 dwp, wr wkdw ri fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg +�S� @4583 njp3�, ^;<`1 Dqdyhudjh ydoxh ri 5493 njp3� iru wkh vshfl�f ghqvlw| ri wkh surgxfwv ri k|gudwlrqlv wr eh irxqg lq olwhudwxuh + ^;<`/ ^:;`,1 Srzghuv frqvlvwlqj ri sxuh Sruwodqg

51: Uhodwlyh yroxphv 7:

fhphqw kdyh d vshfl�f ghqvlw|/ �S ri 6483 njp3� zkloh iru eohqghg fhphqwv dq

dyhudjh vshfl�f ghqvlw|/ �R +njp3�, fdq eh rewdlqhg dv d zhljkwhg dyhudjh=

�R @S

�

s��> +519,

zlwk s� wkh sursruwlrq ri wkh eohqg lq wkh srzghu dqg �� lwv vshfl�f ghqvlw|1Wkh suhsdudwlrq sdudphwhuv wr zklfk rqh pd| uhodwh wkh dprxqw ri uhodwlyh

yroxphv lq wkh k|gudwhg fhphqw duh wkh lqlwldo yroxph ri gu| fhphqw/ YR +p�p3�,/

dqg wkh zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr e| yroxph/��S

�T1 Wkh lqlwldo yroxph ri zdwhu lq wkh

pl{ fdq eh wkxv fdofxodwhg=��S

�T@ T�

TR= +51:,

Jlyhq wkh srzghu ghqvlw|/ �R/ dqg wkh ghqvlw| ri oltxlg zdwhu/ ��/ wkh lqlwldo pdvvri srzghu shu xqlw yroxph ri wkh sdvwh +ZR, fdq eh ghwhuplqhg iurp=

��S

�6@ 4�T�

4RTR@ `�

`R> +51;,

zkhuh��S

�6lv wkh zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr e| pdvv1

Wkh yroxph ri xqk|gudwhg fhphqw2srzghu lq wkh sdvwh/ Y�S/ lv vlpso|=

Y�S @ +4� �,YR= +51<,

Iru d jlyhq zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr/ wkh yroxph ri fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu/YSS� / lv

YSS� @ *k`R

4S�> +5143,

zlwk * wkh iudfwlrq ri qrq0ydsrxulvdeoh zdwhu dqg �S� + njp3�, wkh ghqvlw| riwkh fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu1 Iurp wkh pdvv frqvhuydwlrq ehwzhhq wkh jhovrolgv/ wkh k|gudwhg srzghu dqg wkh fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu zh kdyh wkdw=

Z}r @ �ZR . �*ZR @ �+4 . *,ZR> +5144,

Y}r @ �`R

4R. *

k`R

4S�@ �ZR+

�4R

. )4S�

,= +5145,

Ehfdxvh wkh sdvwh kdv d fkdudfwhulvwlf srurvlw| %S�@5;(/ dqg/ e| gh�qlwlrq/lw lv wkh udwlr ri wkh wrwdo yroxph ri sruhv lq k|gudwhg fhphqw dqg wkh yroxph rik|gudwhg fhphqw=

%S� @T}R3T}r

T}R@ 4� T}r

T}R= +5146,

7; Frqfuhwh surshuwlhv

Dvvxplqj wkdw wkh jho sruhv duh ixoo| vdwxudwhg/ wkh yroxph ri jho zdwhu/ Y}�/fdq eh ghwhuplqhg dv=

Y}� @ 0S�T}r�30S�

@ 0S�k`R

�30S�+ �4R

. )

4S�,= +5147,

Wkxv/ e| dgglqj Ht1 5145 dqg Ht1 5147/ wkh wrwdo yroxph ri k|gudwhg fhphqw lv=

Y}R @ Y}r . Y}� @ k`R

�30S�+ �4R

. )4S�

,= +5148,

Dgglwlrqdoo|/ wkh gu| ghqvlw| ri jho surgxfwv/ �} +njp3�, fdq eh rewdlqhgdv wkh udwlr ri wkh pdvv ri jho vrolgv dqg wkh wrwdo yroxph ri k|gudwhg fhphqw/Y}R +p

�p3�,/

�} @`}r

T}R@

E�n)�E�30S��4R4S�4S�n)4R

= +5149,

E| nqrzlqj wkh yroxphv ri qrq0ydsrxulvdeoh zdwhu +Ht1 5143,/ wkdw ri jhozdwhu +Ht1 5147, dqg wkh lqlwldo yroxph ri wkh zdwhu lq wkh pl{/ Y� +p�p3�,/wkh uhvlgxdo fdsloodu| zdwhu fdq eh fdofxodwhg iurp=

Y�S @ Y� � Y}� � YSS�= +514:,

Ilqdoo|/ wkh hpsw| fdsloodu| vsdfh fdq eh ghwhuplqhg iurp Ht1 518 dv=

YeS @ YR . Y� � Y�S � Y}R � Y�S= +514;,

Wr h{hpsoli| wkh uhodwlrqv deryh/ wkh k|gudwlrq ri d vhdohg sdvwh +frqvwdqwwrwdo yroxph, zlwk d

��S

�6@317; dqg dq lqlwldo dprxqw ri 459 j ri sxuh fhphqw

+�S @6483 njp3�, lv frqvlghuhg1 Iurp Ht1 51; dqg Ht1 51:/ wklv txdqwlw| fruuh0vsrqgv wr d yroxph ri 73 po ri fhphqw1 Iurp wkh vdph htxdwlrqv/ wkh yroxphri zdwhu lq wkh pl{ iruplqj d fdsloodu| v|vwhp ehwzhhq wkh xqk|gudwhg fhphqwsduwlfohv lv 93 po1

Ohw xv �uvw frqvlghu wkh vlwxdwlrq zkhq wkh fhphqw kdv ehhq ixoo| k|gudwhg+� @ 4,/ vlwxdwlrq ghslfwhg lq wkh uljkw0kdqg vlgh ri wkh gldjudp lq Ilj1 5161 Dwwklv vwdjh/ wkh yroxph ri qrq0uhprydeoh zdwhu lv 3156 ri wkh pdvv ri dqk|gurxvfhphqw +vhfwlrq 519,1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ wkh yroxph ri wkh fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhufdofxodwhg iurp Ht1 5143 lv 5< po1 Iurp Ht1 5145 d yroxph 9615po ri jho vrolgv lvghwhuplqhg dqg/ xvlqj wklv ydoxh lq Ht1 5146/ wkh yroxph ri jho zdwhu lv 5816 po1Wkxv/ wkh yroxph ri k|gudwhg fhphqw lv ;;18 po dqg wkhuh duh 81: po ri zdwhuohiw dv fdsloodu| zdwhu lq wkh sdvwh +Ht1 514:,1 Lq dgglwlrq/ hpsw| fdsloodulhv

51: Uhodwlyh yroxphv 7<

α=1α=0.5

Unhydratedcement 20ml

Gel solids 31.6 ml

Gel water 12.6ml

Capillarywater

Empty capillarypores 2.9 ml

32.9 ml

Vccw=14.5 ml

α=0

Cement

Water

60 ml

40 ml

63.2 ml

Gel solids

Vccw=29 ml

Empty capillarypores 5.8 ml

Capillary water5.7ml

Gel water

25.3 ml

Iljxuh 516= VL*�4i|h�U ThLTLh|�L?t Lu Ui4i?| T@t|i UL4TLt�|�L? @| _�gihi?| _i}hiit Lu �)_h@�

|�L?c � uLh @? �?�|�@* �L*�4i|h�U �@|ih�Ui4i?| h@|�L Lu��S

�T@��D�

frpsulvh 81; po1 Iurp wkhvh ydoxhv lw fdq eh fdofxodwhg wkdw/ dw 433( k|gudwlrq/wkh jho2fdsloodu| vsdfh udwlr lv 31;<1

Dv d ixuwkhu looxvwudwlrq/ wkh fhqwuh gldjudp vkrzv wkh yroxphv ri gl�huhqwfrpsrqhqwv ri wkh sdvwh zkhq rqo| kdoi wkh fhphqw kdv k|gudwhg +� @ 3=8,1Dffruglqj wr Ht1 51</ kdoi wkh fhphqw srzghu +53po, zloo uhpdlq xqk|gudwhg dqgwkh qrq0uhprydeoh zdwhu zloo eh kdoi wkh yroxph fruuhvsrqglqj wr ixoo k|gudwlrq1Wkh rwkhu uhodwlyh yroxphv duh fdofxodwhg lq wkh vdph zd| dv deryh1 D wrwdoyroxph ri 7715 po iru wkh k|gudwhg fhphqw lv fdofxodwhg wkdw fruuhvsrqgv wr djho2fdsloodu| udwlr ri 31881

Wkh uhodwlyh yroxphv ri wkh surgxfwv lq wkh fhphqw sdvwh fdq eh fdofxodwhgiru dq| rwkhu vwdjh ri k|gudwlrq � xvlqj wkh surfhgxuh deryh1

Lq sudfwlfh/ wkh glvwulexwlrq ri wkh yroxphv lv rqfh djdlq fkdqjhg zkhq rqhdggv wkh djjuhjdwhv wr wkh pl{/ iru h{dpsoh wkh wrwdo yrlg frqwhqw frqvlvwv ehvlghvfdsloodu| dqg jho sruhv dovr ri dq dssur{lpdwh dprxqw ri 406( ri dlu hqwudsshg lqwkh pl{1 Dv dovr phqwlrqhg lq Ht1 519/ zkhq dq dgglwlrqdo fhphqwlwlrxv pdwhuldo


zlwk d gl�huhqw vshfl�f judylw| wkdq wkdw ri Sruwodqg fhphqw lv suhvhqw/ ghqvlw|fruuhfwlrqv kdyh wr eh pdgh1 Wkhruhwlfdoo|/ iru dq| prgl�fdwlrq/ l1h1 wkh judglqjri wkh djjuhjdwhv/ wkhlu frqwhqw ri iuhh prlvwxuh/ fruuhvsrqglqj fruuhfwlrqv kdyh wreh lqwurgxfhg wr ixoo| ghvfuleh wkh frqfuhwh1 Krzhyhu/ xqghu vrph dvvxpswlrqv/wkh k|gudwhg sdvwh fdq eh d yhu| jrrg dssur{lpdwlrq iru frqfuhwh dv d zkroh ^:4`1

2�H Ah@?tTLh| ThLTih|�it Lu UL?Uhi|i

Wudqvsruw surshuwlhv ri frqfuhwh duh lqyhvwljdwhg prvwo| iru uhdvrqv ri gxudelo0lw|1 Li wkh gxudelolw| ghvljq lv lqdghtxdwh/ ghwhulrudwlrq ri frqfuhwh rffxuvH1 Dvwudqvsruw ri �xlgv lq frqfuhwh ghshqgv hvvhqwldoo| rq wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh dqg rqlwv shqhwudelolw| dqg ehfdxvh ri wkh kljko| khwhurjhqhrxv dqg g|qdplf qdwxuhri wklv vwuxfwxuh/ lw vhhpv d gl�fxow wdvn wr ghvfuleh d fhuwdlq wudqvsruw sdudp0hwhu suhflvho| ^79`1 Pruhryhu/ d eurdg nqrzohgjh ri wkh lpsruwdqw ihdwxuhv riwkh vwuxfwxuh ri lqglylgxdo frpsrqhqwv ri frqfuhwh lv hvvhqwldo iru xqghuvwdqglqjdqg frqwuroolqj lwv surshuwlhv1 Wkh wzr frpsrqhqwv ri wkh vwuxfwxuh hvvhqwldoo|uhodwhg wr wkh wudqvsruw skhqrphqd duh wkh k|gudwhg fhphqw sdvwh dqg wkh wudq0vlwlrq }rqh1 Iurp wkh sruhv ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh/ wkh fdsloodu| sruhv/ zklfk irupd frqwlqxrxv qhwzrun duh uhohydqw iru wudqvsruw1 Jho srurvlw| sod|v rqo| d pdmruuroh gxulqj wkh surfhvv ri k|gudwlrq/ exw kdv d uhgxfhg frqwulexwlrq lq wudqvsruwsurfhvvhv ri oltxlgv ru ydsrxuv1 Lq wkh wudqvlwlrq grpdlq/ wudqvsruw surfhvvhvduh klqghuhg ehfdxvh ri wkh dgglwlrqdo hohfwurvwdwlf lqwhudfwlrqv ^::`1 Dlu exeeohvgr qrw vljql�fdqwo| d�hfw wkh wudqvsruw surfhvvhv xqohvv wkh| duh lq vrph zd|frqqhfwhg wr wkh crshq* qhwzrun ^5`1 Wkh vdph krogv iru wkh lqn0erwwoh sruhv wkdwduh uhvsrqvleoh iru hqwudsslqj zdwhu dqg wkhuhe| iru wkh revhuyhg k|vwhuhvlv eh0kdylrxu gxulqj gu|lqj dqg zhwwlqj1 Wkh lpsdfw ri lqwhuidfldo }rqhv rq wudqvsruwsurshuwlhv lv dovr sulpdulo| uhodwhg wr wkhlu fkdqfh ri iruplqj d frqwlqxrxv sdwkwkurxjkrxw wkh frqfuhwh1 Wkhlu lq�xhqfh lv uhodwhg wr wkhlu odujh vl}h dqg qrwvr pxfk wr wkhlu wrwdo yroxph iudfwlrq1 Kljk zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr pruwdu pl{hvfrqwdlqlqj pruh wkdq 78( e| yroxph ri djjuhjdwh pd| jlyh ulvh wr wkh lqwhu0idfldo }rqhv wkdw doorz shufrodwlrq ri zdwhu1 Wklv vlwxdwlrq frqwudvwv zlwk vhoi0frpsdfwlqj kljk0shuirupdqfh frqfuhwh djjuhjdwhv/ zklfk duh ixoo| hqyhorshg e|wkh fhphqw sdvwh1 Wkhlu lqwhuidfldo }rqhv fuhdwhg dw wkhlu vxuidfhv duh kdugo| frq0

HW? |�4ic UL?Uhi|i �t t�M�iU| ?L| L?*) |L @}�?} @?_ |L i?��hL?4i?|@* ��4�_�|) @?_ |i4Tih�@|�hi U�@?}it M�| @*tL �@t |L ��|�t|@?_ |�i @U|�L? Lu @}}hitt��i �L?tc U@hML? _�L �_ic @*!@*�hi@U|�L?t |�@| ��** @*|ih �|t TLhi t|h�U|�hic *i@_ |L |�i uLh4@|�L? Lu 4�UhLUh@U!tc _iUhi@ti �|tt�hu@Ui @hi@c i|U�

51; Wudqvsruw surshuwlhv ri frqfuhwh 84

qhfwhg1 Zlwk wkh suhvhqw nqrzohgjh dqg wkh h{lvwhqw pdqxidfwxulqj whfkqltxhvrqh fdq vhw wkh sdudphwhuv fkdudfwhulvlqj wkh dgpl{wxuhv vxfk wkdw frqfuhwhvfdq eh uhjdughg xqlirup iurp wkh srlqw ri ylhz ri wudqvsruw1 Pdhndzd ^:4` frq0foxghv wkdw 0zlwk d ihz h{fhswlrqv0 iru prvw frqfuhwhv hqfrxqwhuhg lq sudfwlfh/wkhlu wudqvsruw surshuwlhv duh glfwdwhg e| wkh wudqvsruw surshuwlhv ri wkh fhphqwsdvwh pdwul{1 Iru h{dpsoh/ hvvhqwldoo| wkh vdph ydoxhv ^<5` duh rewdlqhg iru hi0ihfwlyh FR2 gl�xvlylwlhv iru frqfuhwh dqg iru wkh fruuhvsrqglqj fhphqw sdvwh/ dvixqfwlrq ri uhodwlyh kxplglw| dqg frqfuhwh frpsrvlwlrq sdudphwhuv1

Oltxlg zdwhu/ zdwhu ydsrxu dqg rwkhu jdvhv +r{|jhq/ fduerq glr{lgh/ hwf1,duh ri lqwhuhvw iru wudqvsruw wkurxjk frqfuhwh1 Lq dgglwlrq wr zdwhu fkhplfdoo|�{hg gxulqj wkh hduo| vwdjh ri k|gudwlrq/ surjuhvvlyho| prvw ri wkh ydsrxulvdeohzdwhu zloo eh uhpryhg1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ wkh sruhv zloo eh ohiw hlwkhu hpsw| ruxqvdwxudwhg1 Exon pryhphqw ri oltxlg zdwhu rffxuv prvwo| wkurxjk vdwxudwhgfdsloodulhv e| sruh zdwhu suhvvxuhv1 Wudqvsruw ri ydsrxuv dqg rwkhu jdvhv lvgrplqdqw dw orz uhodwlyh kxplglwlhv dqg wdnhv suhgrplqdqwo| sodfh yld gl�xvlrqlq wkh xqvdwxudwhg jho sruhv1 Lqjuhvv ri prlvwxuh lqwr wkh sruhv ri frqfuhwh lvgulyhq e| wkh h{whuqdo suhvvxuh dqg whpshudwxuh judglhqwv1

Gl�huhqw ydoxhv ri wudqvsruw sdudphwhuv lq frqfuhwh kdyh wr eh fduhixoo| frp0sduhg dqg rqh kdv wr fruuhfwo| dffrxqw iru wkh gl�huhqfhv lq wkh pl{ sdudphwhuv/fxulqj dqg hqylurqphqwdo frqglwlrqv wkdw pd| rffxu1

�

�L?Uhi|i 4L_i**�?}

�� W?|hL_�U|�L?

D gl�xvlyh wudqvsruw htxdwlrq lq whupv ri udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq ri wkh dlu0�oohgsruh vsdfh ri dq lvrwurslf srurxv pdwhuldo zloo eh ghulyhg lq fkdswhu 71 Wklvhtxdwlrq dffrxqwv iru wkh pdwhuldo surshuwlhv wkurxjk wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw+Ht1 715<, dqg wkh sduwlwlrq fruuhfwhg srurvlw| +Ht1 715;,1 Lq wkh fdvh ri frqfuhwh/vhyhudo pdwhuldo surshuwlhv +srurvlw|/ prlvwxuh frqwhqw, dqg wudqvsruw frh�flhqwv+gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw, duh qrw frqvwdqw lq wlph ehfdxvh wkh udqgrp dqg frpsoh{plfurvwuxfwxuh lv g|qdplfdoo| uhodwhg wr wkh surfhvv ri k|gudwlrq dqg prlvwxuhwudqvsruw +vhh fkdswhu 5,1 Lq frqfuhwh/ lq dgglwlrq wr d eurdg glvwulexwlrq ridjjuhjdwh sduwlfoh vl}hv wkh k|gudwhg fhphqw pdwul{ jlyhv ulvh wr d eurdg glvwul0exwlrq ri sruh0vl}hv1 Wkh udwh dqg hyroxwlrq ri k|gudwlrq ghwhuplqhv wkh dprxqw/glvwulexwlrq dqg frqqhfwlylw| ri fhuwdlq w|shv ri sruhv1 K|gudwlrq lwvhoi ghshqgvrq wkh wrwdo txdqwlw| ri zdwhu vwruhg lq wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh1 Lqlwldoo| wkh dprxqwri zdwhu suhvhqw lq wkh pl{ lv uhodwhg wr wkh zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr/ gxulqj fxulqj

86

87 Frqfuhwh prghoolqj

dqg vwrulqj wkh hqylurqphqwdo frqglwlrqv zloo judgxdoo| grplqdwh wkh prlvwxuhfrqwhqw ri wkh k|gudwhg plfurvwuxfwxuh1

Wklv fkdswhu frqwdlqv irxu vhfwlrqv1 Lq vhfwlrq 615 d eulhi ghvfulswlrq ri wkhkhdw0ri0k|gudwlrq prgho iru eohqghg fhphqwv zloo eh jlyhq1 Zlwk wklv prgho/ wkhfrqfuhwh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh xvhg dv wkh vrxufh whup lq wkh htxdwlrq ri wkhu0prg|qdplf hqhuj| frqvhuydwlrq lv frpsxwhg1 E| vroylqj wklv htxdwlrq iru wkhvsdfh dqg wlph grpdlq ri lqwhuhvw/ wkh whpshudwxuh glvwulexwlrq/ ghjuhh ri k|0gudwlrq ri frqfuhwh dqg wkh dprxqw ri fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu duh jhqhudwhg1Wkhvh txdqwlwlhv vhuyh dv lqsxw wr frpsxwh wkh plfur0dvshfwv ri sruh vwuxfwxuhghyhorsphqw ri wkh k|gudwhg fhphqw sdvwh +vhfwlrq 616,1 Wkh g|qdplfdo frx0solqj ri wkh k|gudwlrq/ ghyhorsphqw ri plfurvwuxfwxuh dqg prlvwxuh wudqvsruw lvdfklhyhg e| lqwhjudwlqj doo wkhvh frqwulexwlrqv lq d pdvv frqvhuydwlrq htxdwlrqzulwwhq lq whupv ri sruh oltxlg0zdwhu suhvvxuh1 Wkh vlqn whup ri wklv frqvhuyd0wlrq htxdwlrq uh�hfwv fkdqjhv lq wkh exon srurvlw| dqg lwv glvwulexwlrq/ wkh udwhri prlvwxuh orvv gxh wr k|gudwlrq dv zhoo dv wkh fkdqjh lq wkh ghjuhh ri vdwxudwlrqri ydulrxv w|shv ri sruhv +vhfwlrq 617,1 Wklv dqdo|vlv zloo eh fduulhg rxw xqghuwkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw frqfuhwh lv dq lvrwurslf/ krprjhqhrxv dqg xqlirup srurxvpdwhuldo1 Wkh frqglwlrqv xqghu zklfk wklv dvvxpswlrq lv ydolg zloo eh glvfxvvhg+vhfwlrq 618,1

��2 ��*|�UL4TL?i?| �i@|��)_h@|�L?

K|gudwlrq ri fhphqw +vhh vhfwlrq 517, lv dq h{rwkhuplf uhdfwlrq lq zklfk wkh ole0hudwhg wkhupdo hqhuj| lv wudqvihuuhg lq frqfuhwh ghshqglqj rq wkh hqylurqphqwdofrqglwlrqv wr wkh vxuidfhv ri wkh vwuxfwxuh1 Wkh surfhvv ri khdw frqgxfwlrq dqgwkh whpshudwxuh ghshqghqfh ri fhphqw k|gudwlrq lqwurgxfh glvwxuedqfhv lq wkhwhpshudwxuh glvwulexwlrq dqg ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq1 Wkh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh gli0ihuv dw hdfk orfdwlrq ri wkh vwuxfwxuh dqg frqvhtxhqwo| lq�xhqfhv wkh dprxqw rioltxlg zdwhu lq wkh ghyhorslqj plfurvwuxfwxuh1 Wkxv/ dq dffxudwh ghvfulswlrq riwkh surfhvv ri fhphqw k|gudwlrq kdv wr xsgdwh dw hdfk vwhs wkh whpshudwxuh dovrwdnlqj lqwr dffrxqw lwv klvwru|1 Dgglwlrqdoo|/ vroxwlrqv iru lqwhuqdo yduldeohv vxfkdv wkh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/ fkhplfdoo| erxqg zdwhu/ dyhudjh sruh0zdwhu frqwhqw/fdq eh rewdlqhg1

E| dsso|lqj wkh wkhuprg|qdplf hqhuj|0frqvhuydwlrq odz/ rqh rewdlqv wkhiroorzlqj htxdwlrq=

frYAY| @ gly+�uW , .K> +614,

615 Pxowlfrpsrqhqw khdw0k|gudwlrq 88

zkhuh K +Mp3� v3�, lv wkh frqfuhwh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh dw whpshudwxuh W +N,/fr +Mp3�N3�, wkh frqfuhwh khdw fdsdflw| shu xqlw yroxph dqg � +MN3�p3� v3�,wkh phdq wkhupdo frqgxfwlylw| ri frqfuhwh1 Lq wkh qxphulfdo lpsohphqwdwlrq/ frdqg � duh frpsxwhg dv wkh zhljkwhg vxp ri wkh khdw fdsdflwlhv dqg wkhupdofrqgxfwlylwlhv fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkh frqfuhwh frpsrqhqwv/ uhvshfwlyho|1

Wkh rqo| vrxufh ri khdw jhqhudwlrq dqg wkxv/ ri whpshudwxuh ulvh lq frqfuhwh lvwkh k|gudwlrq surfhvv1 Fhphqw +vhfwlrq 515,/ iurp wkh srlqw ri ylhz ri lwv fkhplfdofrpsrvlwlrq/ lv d sro|plqhudo pdwhuldo1 Wr dffrxqw iru wkh gl�huhqfh ehwzhhqsxuh fhphqw dqg fhphqw zlwk sr}}rodq dgglwlyhv +jjev/ �| dvk, wkh whup srzghu

pdwhuldo ru eohqghg fhphqw lv xvhg iru wkh odwwhu fdvh1 Wr frpsxwh wkh frqfuhwhkhdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh d pxowl0frpsrqhqw prgho iru wkh khdw ri k|gudwlrq ri fhphqwlv sursrvhg1 Vx}xnl hw do1 ^46;` vkrz wkdw lw lv d jrrg dssur{lpdwlrq wr frqvlghuwkh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh ri fhphqw dv wkh vxp ri wkh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwhv rihdfk frpsrqhqw dffruglqj wr wkhlu sursruwlrqv1 Wkxv/ wkh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwhri frqfuhwh/ K/ fdq eh zulwwhq dv=

K @ SSKS zlwk KS @[

s�K�> +615,

zkhuh SS +njp3�, lv wkh srzghu frqwhqw shu xqlw yroxph ri frqfuhwh/KS +M nj3� v3�,

lv wkh vshfl�f khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh ri srzghu/ K� +M nj3� v3�, lv wkh vshfl�f khdw0

ri0k|gudwlrq udwh ri wkh frpsrvlqj folqnhu dqg eohqglqj pdwhuldov/ s� lv wkh zhljk0lqj idfwru fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkhlu pdvv udwlr lq wkh srzghu dqg l lv xvhg dv dqlqgh{ iru wkh srzghu frpsrqhqwv1

Wkh khdw0jhqhudwlrq prgho kdv wr eh dssolfdeoh wr srzghu k|gudwlrq wdnlqjsodfh lq frqfuhwh xqghu duelwudu| whpshudwxuh frqglwlrqv1 Wkh whpshudwxuh gh0shqghqfh ri srzghu k|gudwlrq lv ghvfulehg e| d prgl�hg Duukhqlxv* odz ^:4`1Wkh h{rwkhuplf ihdwxuh ri wkh k|gudwlrq surfhvv lv vshfl�hg e| wzr pdwhuldoixqfwlrqv/ wkh wkhupdo dfwlylw| dqg wkh lqwulqvlf khdw udwh1 Wkxv/ iru hdfk srzghufrpsrqhqw/ K� fdq eh zulwwhq dv=

K� @ ��K�+Wf>T�, h{sk�

.�E'��-

��A �

�Af

�lzlwk T� @

|]f

K�gw= +616,

Wkh frh�flhqw � lv d glphqvlrqohvv sdudphwhu dffrxqwlqj iru lqwhudfwlrqv dprqjfhphqw folqnhuv dqg sr}}rodqv> �� vwdqgv iru wkh uhgxfwlrq ri suredelolw| ri frq0wdfw ehwzhhq xqk|gudwhg frpsrxqgv dqg oltxlg zdwhu lq wkh fdsloodu| sruhv>H� +T�, +Mpro3�, lv wkh dfwlydwlrq hqhuj| ri wkh l|� frpsrqhqw uhdfwlrq> W +N,lv wkh devroxwh whpshudwxuh ri frqfuhwh dqg U lv wkh xqlyhuvdo jdv frqvwdqw


+@;164 Mpro3�N3�,1 Wkh uhihuhqfh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh ri wkh l|� frpsrqhqwdw Wf +5<6N, dqg iru d plqhudo frpsrvlwlrq fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkdw ri ruglqdu|Sruwodqg fhphqw/ ghqrwhg e| K�+Wf>T�, +M nj

3� v3�,/ lv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh whpshu0dwxuh Wf dqg ri wkh dffxpxodwhg khdw/ T� +M nj

3�, vshfl�f iru hdfk skdvh1 Wkxv/Duukhqlxv* odz |lhogv=

K�+Wf>T�, @ K"+T�, h{s��

.�E'��- Af

�> +617,

zkhuh K"+T�, +M nj3� v3�, lv wkh xowlpdwh khdw0jhqhudwlrq udwh ri srzghu dwlq�qlwh whpshudwxuh +W$4, zklfk lv dq lpdjlqdu| vlwxdwlrq1

Erwk wkh dfwlydwlrq hqhuj|/ H� +T�, dqg wkh lqwulqvlf uhihuhqfh khdw udwh/K�+Wf>T�,> duh fdofxodwhg iurp dgldedwlf whpshudwxuh ulvh whvwv/ lq sudfwlfh riwhqfrqgxfwhg wr lqyhvwljdwh wkh fdorulf surshuwlhv ri frqfuhwh ^46;`1 Iurp wkh dgl0dedwlf whpshudwxuh ulvh fxuyhv +glvsod|lqj whpshudwxuh yhuvxv wlph iru gl�huhqwlqlwldo whpshudwxuhv, wkh dffxpxodwhg khdw shu xqlw pdvv ri fhphqw/ T� +M nj

3�,fdq eh ghwhuplqhg1 Dffruglqj wr Ht1 616 wkh judglhqw ri wkhvh fxuyhv/ _'�

_| / lvhtxdo wr wkh khdw surgxfwlrq udwh ri k|gudwlrq dw whpshudwxuh W 1 Xvlqj Ht1 617dqg wkh fruuhvsrqglqj Duukhqlxv* sorw +orjdulwkp ri K� yhuvxv wkh lqyhuvh ri W ,

wkh judglhqw htxdov .�E'��- > iurp zklfk wkh wkhupdo dfwlylw| +dfwlydwlrq hqhuj|,

fdq eh fdofxodwhg1 Wkh ydoxh ri K� fdofxodwhg e| h{wudsrodwlrq wr }hur jlyhvK"+T�,1

Wkh frqwdfw suredelolw|/ ��/ ehwzhhq xqk|gudwhg srzghu sduwlfohv dqg oltxlgfdsloodu| zdwhu ghshqgv rq wkh suredelolw| ri prohfxodu froolvlrqv wkxv/ lv lq�x0hqfhg e| wkh dprxqw ri oltxlg zdwhu lq wkh ghyhorslqj plfurvwuxfwxuh +h{suhvvhgshu xqlw pdvv ri fhphqw,/ $,�^1 Wklv lv h{suhvvhg dv wkh udwlr ri pdvv ri oltxlgzdwhu dqg lqlwldo srzghu pdvv/ l1h1=

$,�^ @4� "SR6SRT6

�S> +618,

zlwk �� +njp3�, wkh ghqvlw| ri oltxlg zdwhu dw urrp whpshudwxuh +<<:18 njp3�,/�SR wkh fdsloodu| srurvlw|/ l1h1 wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh yroxph ri fdsloodu| sruhv dqgwkh yroxph ri fhphqw sdvwh pSR wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh yroxph ri oltxlg zdwhufrqwdlqhg lq fdsloodulhv dqg wkh wrwdo yroxph ri fdsloodulhv dqg Y6 wkh yroxphiudfwlrq ri fhphqw sdvwh lq frqfuhwh1

Uhgxfwlrq ri wkh frqwdfw suredelolw| dv k|gudwlrq surjuhvvhv rffxuv qrw rqo|ehfdxvh ri d ghfuhdvhg ydoxh ri $,�^ exw dovr e| dq lqfuhdvlqj wklfnqhvv ri wkhk|gudwhg fhphqw sduwlfohv1 Dvvxplqj d gluhfw sursruwlrqdolw| ehwzhhq wkh yroxphri wkh k|gudwhg sduwlfoh dw d fhuwdlq lqvwdqw2ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/ ��/ dqg wkh

616 Plfurvwuxfwxudo ghyhorsphqw prgho 8:

fruuhvsrqglqj dffxpxodwhg khdw/ T� dqg wdnlqj dv uhihuhqfh wkh vlwxdwlrq dwlq�qlwh wlph/ zkhq ixoo k|gudwlrq lv dfklhyhg/ wkh glphqvlrqohvv wklfnqhvv ri wkhfoxvwhu/ ��/ fdq eh zulwwhq dv=

�� @ 4��4� '�

'�c"

��*�@ 4� +4� ��,

�*� > +619,

zkhuh wkh udwlr '�

'�c"gh�qhv wkh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq ri hdfk frpsrqhqw1 Iurp wklv

uhodwlrq rqh fdq vhh wkdw/ dv wkh glphqvlrq ri wkh xqk|gudwhg sduwlfoh ehfrphvvpdoohu/ zlwk wlph/ d odujhu ghfuhdvh lq wkh gldphwhu ri wkh +vdph, sduwlfoh lvqhhghg wr dfklhyh wkh vdph ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq1

Ilqdoo|/ wkh frqwdfw suredelolw| �� lv h{suhvvhg lq dq hpslulfdo uhodwlrq zlwk$,�^ +Ht1 618, dqg �� +Ht1 619,=

�� @ 4� h{s

��8 �

�/,�^l�

�2�e�= +61:,

Li qr zdwhu lv dydlodeoh/ $,�^ @ 3 dqg wkxv/ wkh frqwdfw suredelolw| ydqlvkhv1 Lqwkh lqlwldo vwdjhv/ zkhq doprvw qr k|gudwlrq lv suhvhqw +�� @ 3,/ wkh frqwdfwsuredelolw| uhdfkhv xqlw|1

Iru dq| ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/ jlyhq wkh vwrlfklrphwulf htxdwlrqv ri k|gudwlrq+Ht1 514 wr Ht1 517,/ wkh dprxqw ri fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu h{suhvvhg shu xqlwpdvv ri k|gudwhg srzghu pdwhuldo/ */ fdq eh frpsxwhg1 Wkxv/ li rqh ghqrwhve| ZR wkh pdvv ri srzghu pdwhuldov shu xqlw sdvwh yroxph/ wkh wrwdo dprxqw rizdwhu frqvxphg gxulqj k|gudwlrq shu xqlw sdvwh yroxph +�ZR*, lv frpsxwhg dwhyhu| vwhs lq wkh prgho1

E| xvlqj hqhuj| frqvhuydwlrq +Ht1 614, dqg d pxowl0frpsrqhqw khdw0ri0k|gudwlrqprgho/ wkh wkhuprg|qdplf hqylurqphqw ri fhphqw srzghu lq frqfuhwh lv gh0vfulehg1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw dw hyhu| wlph vwhs dqg dw hdfk orfdwlrq lq wkh vwuxf0wxuh/ qrw rqo| W exw dovr ��/ * dqg wkh uhpdlqlqj dprxqw ri fdsloodu| oltxlgzdwhu dydlodeoh iru k|gudwlrq fdq eh ghulyhg1

�� UhLt|h�U|�h@* _i�i*LT4i?| 4L_i*

Wkh jhrphwulfdo fkdudfwhulvwlf sdudphwhuv iru d vlqjoh srzghu sduwlfoh dw dq duel0wudu| vwdjh ri k|gudwlrq zlwk uhihuhqfh wr wkh lqlwldo frq�jxudwlrq duh vfkhpdwl0fdoo| vkrzq lq Ilj1 6 +frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,1 Xvlqj wkhvh sdudphwhuv/ d vlpsoh dqgvwudljkwiruzdug ghvfulswlrq ri wkh foxvwhu dqg lwv h{sdqvlrq duh rewdlqhg1 Wkhsuhvhqw prgho frqvlghuv wkdw wkh lqlwldo frq�jxudwlrq ri wkh v|vwhp/ lpphgldwho|

8; Frqfuhwh prghoolqj

diwhu pl{lqj fhphqw zlwk zdwhu/ fruuhvsrqgv wr d glvshuvh fdvh dqg d odujh vsuhdglq wkh vl}h ri fhphqw sduwlfohv lv frqvlghuhg +vhh Ilj1 6 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq/vwdjh 4,1 Lq wkh vwuxfwxudo ghyhorsphqw/ wkh odujhu sduwlfohv vhhp wr ghflgh wkhpruskrorjlfdo ihdwxuhv ri d sdvwh1 Wkh vpdoohu vl}hg sduwlfohv hlwkhu dgkhuh wrwkh vxuidfh ri wkh odujhu rqhv ru/ diwhu pl{lqj zlwk zdwhu/ frpsohwho| glvvroyh dqgvkrz djjorphudwlrq dqg �rffxodwlrq1

Lw lv srvvleoh wr ghvfuleh wkh uhdo +glvshuvh, frq�jxudwlrq ri wkh v|vwhp e|dq lghdol}hg +rughuhg, vwdwh +vhh Ilj1 6 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq/ vwdjh 5,frqvlghulqj wkh iroorzlqj=

41 Hdfk sduwlfoh lq wkh glvshuvh v|vwhp kdv/ rq dyhudjh/ d iuhh fxelf yroxph/o� dydlodeoh iru h{sdqvlrq dqg ri htxlydohqw vskhulfdo udglxv/ ue^=

o @ v. 5uf> ue^ @�

�eZ

��*�o @ "o> +61;,

zkhuh v +p, lv wkh dyhudjh vsdflqj ehwzhhq rxwhu vxuidfhv ri srzghu sduwlfohvdqg " lv fdoohg wkh vwhuhrorjlfdo idfwru +vhh Ilj1 6 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq/vwdjh 6,1

51 Wkh dyhudjhg yroxphwulf frqfhqwudwlrq J ri d xqlirupo| glvshuvhg v|vwhpri vskhulfdo sduwlfohv ri udglxv uf dqg dyhudjh vsdflqj v fdq eh frpsxwhg dv wkhudwlr ehwzhhq wkh sduwlfoh yroxph dqg wkh yroxph dydlodeoh iru lwv jurzwk=

J @ Cf

E�nr2of

��> +61<,

zkhuh Jf lv wkh pd{lpxp yroxphwulf frqfhqwudwlrq1 Lq wkhru|/ Jf @ZS 1 Krzhyhu/

wr dffrxqw iru d odujh vsuhdg lq sduwlfoh vl}h/ wklv ydoxh lv uhsodfhg e| wkh iroorzlqjhpslulfdo uhodwlrq wr wkh Eodlqh �qhqhvv lqgh{/ EI +p2 nj3�,=

Jf @ 3=:<��8�Df

�f��= +6143,

Lq erwk/ Ht1 61; dqg Ht1 61</ uf +@43 �p, lv wkh dyhudjh udglxv ri wkh �rffx0odwhg sduwlfohv +lghdolvhg dv vskhuhv, frqvlghuhg dv uhsuhvhqwdwlyh iru wkh srzghupdwhuldo1

Wrxfklqj ri dgmdfhqw sduwlfohv zrxog rffxu zkhq wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh h{sdqg0lqj foxvwhu zrxog htxdo wkh vsdflqj ehwzhhq wkh sduwlfohv1 Ixuwkhu h{sdqvlrq dqgphujlqj zloo wdnh sodfh dv wkh qhzo| iruphg surgxfwv ri k|gudwlrq zloo whqg wr�oo doo wkh hpsw| vsdfh dydlodeoh lq wkh xqlw fhoo1 Dffruglqj wr vwdjh 7 lq Ilj1 6+frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,/ wkh pd{lpxp wklfnqhvv ri wkh h{sdqglqj foxvwhu/ �4@ /fruuhvsrqglqj wr d frpsohwh �oolqj ri wkh fxelf xqlw fhoo fdq eh fdofxodwhg iurpwkh gl�huhqfh ehwzhhq ue^ dqg uf1

616 Plfurvwuxfwxudo ghyhorsphqw prgho 8<

Li zh zulwh J dv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh srzghu ghqvlw|/ �R +Ht1 519, dqg ri wkhzdwhu0fhphqw udwlr/

��S

�6=

J @TRJ�_eoT|J|@,

@ �

�n4R4�+�S ,6

> +6144,

iurp Ht1 61< dqg Ht1 6144 zh fdq fdofxodwh wkh dyhudjh vsdflqj ehwzhhq srzghusduwlfohv/ v/ dv=

v @ 5uf

��Jf

�4 .

4R4�

��S

�6

��*�� 4

�= +6145,

Wkxv/ wkh pd{lpxp wklfnqhvv ri wkh h{sdqglqj foxvwhu htxdov=

�4@ @ ue^ � uf @ uf

�5"kJf

�4 .

4R4�

��S

�6

�l�*�� 4

�= +6146,

Wkh uhdfwlrq surgxfwv jhqhudwhg gxulqj wkh sduwlfoh h{sdqvlrq/ suhflslwdwhgrq wkh rxwhu vxuidfh dqg lq wkh iuhh sruh vroxwlrq skdvh duh fdoohg wkh rxwhu

surgxfwv> wkh fkdudfwhulvwlf srurvlw| dw wkh rxwhuprvw erxqgdu| ri wkh h{sdqglqjfoxvwhu ehlqj %J�1 Dw wkh vdph wlph/ lqvlgh wkh ruljlqdo sduwlfoh erxqgdu| wkhlqqhu surgxfwv duh iruphg/ kdylqj frqvwdqw plfurvwuxfwxudo surshuwlhv dqg dsrurvlw| htxdo wr wkh fkdudfwhulvwlf srurvlw| ri jho/ %�? @ %S� @ 3=5;1 Frqvlghulqjwkdw/ dw wkh surfhvv ri k|gudwlrq/ wkh foxvwhu wklfnqhvv lv �6 +p,/ wkh exon srurvlw|glvwulexwlrq/ %B/ dw dq| srlqw lq wkh foxvwhu orfdwhg dw wkh glvwdqfh � +p, iurpwkh lqlwldo rxwhu erxqgdu| ri wkh sduwlfoh lv prghoohg e|=

%B @ +%J� � %�?,�

BB6

�. %�?= +6147,

Lq vhfwlrq 518 lw zdv phqwlrqhg wkdw wkh sruh vsdfh ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh riwrwdo srurvlw| % fdq eh glylghg lqwr wkuhh eurdg fdwhjrulhv/ l1h1 wkh lqwhuod|hu +%,,/jho +%}, dqg fdsloodu| +%S, srurvlw|1 Iru fodulw|/ lw lv uhfdslwxodwhg wkdw fdsloodu|srurvlw| h{lvwv lq wkh odujh vsdfh ehwzhhq srzghu sduwlfohv/ jho srurvlw| h{lvwv lqwkh lqwhuvwlwldo vsdfhv ri jho surgxfwv +FVK judlqv, zkloh lqwhuod|hu srurvlw| lvwkh vsdfh ehwzhhq wkh od|hu vwuxfwxuhv ri FVK frpsulvlqj wkh lqwhuod|hu zdwhuvwurqjo| erxqg wr wkh vxuidfhv1 Iru k|gudwlrq uhdfwlrqv rqo| wkh zdwhu khoglq wkh fdsloodu| sruhv lv uhohydqw vlqfh lw uhsuhvhqwv wkh rqo| vsdfh zkhuh qhzk|gudwlrq surgxfwv fdq eh iruphg1 Nqrzlqj wkh dyhudjh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/�/ ri frqfuhwh dqg wkh dprxqw ri fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu/ */ wkh zhljkw dqgyroxph ri gl�huhqw k|gudwlrq surgxfwv shu xqlw yroxph ri fhphqw sdvwh fdq eh


frpsxwhg +vhfwlrq 51:,1 Iurp Ht1 5148 dqg Ht1 519/ wkh jho dqg fdsloodu| srurvlwlhviroorz dv=

%} @ Y}R%S� � %, %S @ 4� Y}R � +4� �,`R

4R= +6148,

Wkh udwlr %, ehwzhhq wkh yroxph ri lqwhuod|hu sruhv dqg wkh yroxph ri gu| jhosurgxfwv zlwk wkh ghqvlw|/ �}/ lv jlyhq e| Ht1 51491 Dvvxplqj d od|hu vwuxfwxuhzlwk dq lqwhuod|hu vsdflqj w� ri rqh zdwhu prohfxoh +3=5; qp, iru wkh FVK pdvvdqg ghqrwlqj zlwk v, +p

2 nj3�, wkh vshfl�f vxuidfh duhd ri wkh lqwhuod|hu/ rqh jhwv=

%, @�2w�v,�}= +6149,

Wkh ydoxh ri v, lv xvxdoo| dvvxphg wr eh ghshqghqw rq wkh plqhudorjlfdo fkdu0dfwhulvwlfv ri wkh srzghu1

Wr ghwhuplqh wkh glvwulexwlrqv ri wkh fdsloodu|/ jho dqg lqwhuod|hu srurvlwlhv/rqh kdv �uvw wr ghwhuplqh wkh vshfl�f vxuidfh duhdv ri hdfk ri wkhvh skdvhv1 Dv djho ri vlplodu surshuwlhv lv iruphg frqwlqxrxvo|/ lwv plfurvwuxfwxudo surshuwlhv duhfrqvwdqw dqg lqghshqghqw rq wkh surjuhvv ri k|gudwlrq1 Wkxv/ wkh vxuidfh duhdri wkh jho/ V}+p2p3�, shu xqlw yroxph ri wkh sdvwh lv vlpso|=

V} @Z}rv}> +614:,

zlwk wkh vshfl�f vxuidfh duhd ri k|gudwhv v} @731333p2 nj3� dqgZ}r wkh yroxphri jho vrolgv +vhh dovr vhfwlrq 51:,1 Wkh vshfl�f vxuidfh duhd ri fdsloodu| srurvlw|/VS +p

2p3�,/ gh�qhg shu xqlw yroxph ri sdvwh/ pxvw eh frpsxwhg dw hdfk vwdjhri k|gudwlrq dv=

VS @�sEB6�

�o�e^E�30�?�> +614;,

zlwk )+qp, ehlqj wkh yroxph wr vxuidfh duhd udwlr ri wkh vrolg judlq ri k|gudwhvfrqwdlqhg lq wkh uhjlrq gu orfdwhg dw d glvwdqfh u iurp wkh fhqwuh ri wkh sduwlfohdqg ue^ gh�qhg e| Ht1 61;1 Wkh ixqfwlrq i +�6, +p�, kdv dv yduldeoh wkh foxvwhuwklfnqhvv dw wkh lqvwdqfh ri k|gudwlrq/ �61 Lw fdq eh uhsuhvhqwhg e| d wklug0rughusro|qrpldo zkrvh frh�flhqwv duh ghwhuplqhg e| dsso|lqj pdvv frqvhuydwlrq riwkh k|gudwhv iruphg xs wr d fhuwdlq ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/ l1h1 wkh wrwdo pdvv rik|gudwhv vkrxog eh htxdo wr wkh vxp ri wkh pdvvhv ri wkh k|gudwhv uhvlglqj lqwkh lqqhu dqg rxwhu surgxfwv ^:4`1 Wkhvh frh�flhqwv dovr uh�hfw wkdw lqlwldoo| wkhfoxvwhu h{sdqgv iuhho| zkloh/ zkhq lw kdv frpsohwho| �oohg xs wkh vxuurxqglqjdydlodeoh vsdfh/ fkdqjhv lq exon srurvlw| rffxu vxfk dv wr dffrpprgdwh wkh qhzjho ehlqj iruphg1

617 Prlvwxuh wudqvsruw prgho 94

Iurp lqirupdwlrq rq wkh vshfl�f vxuidfh duhd/ wkh srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq fdqeh ghulyhg e| dvvxplqj d glvwulexwlrq uhsuhvhqwhg e|=

@ 4� h{s +�Eu, > g @ Eu h{s+�Eu,g oq u> +614<,

lq zklfk lv wkh iudfwlrq sruh yroxph ri wkh srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq ri sruhv zlwkudglxv ohvv wkdq u1 Wkh sdudphwhu E+p3�, lv wkh rqo| iuhh sdudphwhu wkdw gh0vfulehv wkh glvwulexwlrq1 Wkh shdn ri wkh srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq/ li sorwwhg rq dorjdulwkplf vfdoh lv dw oq u @ � �

� 1Iru d v|vwhp ri f|olqgulf sruhv/ zlwk wrwdo srurvlw| %/ wkh glvwulexwlrq sdudp0

hwhu E fdq eh uhodwhg wr wkh vxuidfh duhd shu xqlw yroxph/ V/ yld=

V @ 5%U

_vo @ 5%

UE h{s +�Eu, g+oqu,= +6153,

Xqghu wklv dvvxpswlrq +f|olqgulfdo sruhv,/ wkh glvwulexwlrq sdudphwhuv E} dqgES iru wkh jho dqg fdsloodu| srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq fdq eh fdofxodwhg xvlqj Ht1 6153dqg wkh vshfl�f vxuidfhv V} dqg VS iurp Ht1 614: dqg Ht1 614;/ uhvshfwlyho| ^:4`1

Wkxv/ wkh qrupdolvhg srurvlw| glvwulexwlrqv iru wkh fdsloodu| dqg jho srurvlwlhvduh uhsuhvhqwhg e|=

%S+u, @ %S ^4� h{s+�ESu,` > +6154,

%}+u, @ %} ^4� h{s +�E}u,` = +6155,

Wkh wrwdo srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh/ % +u, lv rewdlqhg dv wkh vxp0pdwlrq ri wkh lqwhuod|hu srurvlw| %,/ wkh fdsloodu| %S +u, dqg jho %} +u, srurvlw|glvwulexwlrqv=

% +u, @ %, . %} ^4� h{s +�E}u,` . %S ^4� h{s +�ESu,` = +6156,

Wkh idfw wkdw wkh lqwhuod|hu srurvlw| lv vlpso| oxpshg zlwk wkh fdsloodu| dqgjho srurvlw| glvwulexwlrqv lv prwlydwhg e| wkh idfw wkdw lwv h{dfw fkdudfwhulvwlfv duhqrw zhoo xqghuvwrrg1 Iurp wkh srlqw ri ylhz ri prlvwxuh wudqvsruw/ wkh lqwhuod|husrurvlw| kdv qr frqwulexwlrq vlqfh wkh zdwhu lv �{hg1

��e �L�t|�hi |h@?tTLh| 4L_i*

Wkh suhvhqfh ri prlvwxuh2zdwhu lq frqfuhwh lv fulwlfdo qrw rqo| lq wkh hduo| vwdjhvzkhq wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh lv iruphg exw dovr iru wkh odwhu hyroxwlrq1 Iru wkh wzrskdvhv wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw/ l1h1 oltxlg dqg ydsrxu/ wkh gl�xvlyh dqg wkh exon


pryhphqw frqwulexwlrqv wr wkh prlvwxuh wudqvsruw duh uhjdughg iurp d wkhupr0g|qdplf ylhzsrlqw1 Lqwhuqdo prlvwxuh orvv rffxuv ehfdxvh ri k|gudwlrq/ qrw rqo|wkh exon srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq xqghujrhv prgl�fdwlrqv exw dovr wkh dprxqw rizdwhu erxqg wr wkh k|gudwhg fhphqw vwuxfwxuh fkdqjhv1 Lqwhuqdoo| jhqhudwhgoltxlg sruh0suhvvxuh judglhqwv duh wkh pdlq phfkdqlvp ohdglqj wr wkh uhglvwul0exwlrq ri prlvwxuh> whpshudwxuh judglhqwv ehlqj dvvxphg wr kdyh d qhjoljleohlq�xhqfh ^:4`1 Wkh vhfrqg lq�xhqwldo idfwru rq prlvwxuh fkdqjhv lv wkh h{fkdqjhzlwk hqylurqphqwdo zdwhu ydsrxu1 Dw orz uhodwlyh kxplglwlhv gl�xvlrq ri ydsrxuvlv grplqdqw1 Iru kljk uhodwlyh kxplglwlhv fdsloodu| vxfwlrq ehfrphv lpsruwdqw/wkh exon ri wkh vdwxudwhg sruh v|vwhp ehlqj iruphg e| wkh zdwhu frqghqvhg lqwkh fdsloodu| sruhv1 Sruh suhvvxuh dqg uhodwlyh kxplglw| lq wkh hqylurqphqw duhlqwhudfwlyho| uhodwhg dqg ghwhuplqh wkh klvwru| ri gu|lqj dqg zhwwlqj ri frq0fuhwh1 Wkxv/ wr ehvw ghvfuleh wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh ghyhorsphqw dqg wkh prlvwxuhwudqvsruw lq frqfuhwh/ d prlvwxuh wudqvsruw prgho frxsohg wr wkh hyroxwlrq rik|gudwlrq dqg dffrxqwlqj iru fkdqjhv lq wkh hqylurqphqwdo uhodwlyh kxplglw| kdvwr eh ghyhorshg1

Wkh vdph glylvlrq ri wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh/ l1h1 lqwhuod|hu/ jho dqg fdsloodu|srurvlw| frpsrqhqwv lv dovr dgrswhg iru wkh srurxv sdwk ri prlvwxuh wudqvsruw1Wkh srurxv phglxp lv frqvlghuhg lvrwkhupdo/ lvrwurslf dqg qrq0ghirupdeoh frq0vlvwlqj ri sruhv lghdolvhg lq vkdsh/ l1h1 zlwk d qhfn dw hdfk hqg1 Wkh surfhvv riprlvwxuh wudqvsruw fdq eh ghvfulehg e| �yh pdmru vwhsv=

� dgvruswlrq ri zdwhu prohfxohv wr wkh vrolg sruh vxuidfh>

� ydsrxu �x{ wr wkh qhljkerxulqj sruhv/ diwhu d frpsohwh prqrod|hu lv iruphg>

� frqghqvdwlrq dw wkh qhfnhg sruh0hqgv>

� xvlqj wkh frqghqvhg zdwhu od|huv dw wkh sruh hqgv dv d vkruw0flufxlwhg sdwk/ydsrxu pryhphqw frqwlqxhv/ jhqhudwlqj dq lqfuhdvh ri wkh ydsrxu suhvvxuh lqvlghwkh sruhv dqg ri wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh dgvruehg zdwhu od|hu1 Iorz lq wklq oltxlg�opv pd| rffxu1

� wudqvlwlrq wr vdwxudwhg �rz +odplqdu uhjlph, lv dovr srvvleoh lq fdvh ixoo0frqghqvdwlrq zlwklq wkh sruhv wdnhv sodfh1

Wkh skhqrphqd ri prlvwxuh wudqvsruw zloo eh glvfxvvhg dw wkh ohyho ri d uhs0uhvhqwdwlyh hohphqwdu| yroxph/ UHY1 Dv dw d fhuwdlq wlph dqg iru d jlyhq UKgl�huhqw vwhsv ri prlvwxuh wudqvsruw zrxog eh lq surjuhvv/ wkh wrwdo prlvwxuhwudqvsruw ehkdylrxu lq wkh srurxv phglxp zrxog eh rewdlqhg e| lqwhjudwlqj wkhprlvwxuh wudqvsruw ryhu doo wkh vdwxudwhg dqg xqvdwxudwhg sruhv lq wkh UHY1 Iruvlpsolflw| uhdvrqv/ doo htxdwlrqv glvfxvvhg qh{w zloo dsso| iru wkh rqh0glphqvlrqdofdvh/ dowkrxjk lq wkh frpsxwdwlrqdo prgho wkh wkuhh0glphqvlrqdo fdvh lv lqfru0


srudwhg1

��e�� L�t|�hi |h@?tTLh| i^�@|�L?

Wkh dlp ri wklv vhfwlrq lv wr ghulyh dq htxdwlrq wkdw ghvfulehv wkh udwh ri fkdqjhri wkh zdwhu frqwhqw ri frqfuhwh frqvlghulqj doo wkh lq�xhqflqj idfwruv phqwlrqhgderyh1 Dv wkh pdvv ri prlvwxuh lq ydsrxu irup fdq eh frqvlghuhg qhjoljleoh/wkh wrwdo pdvv ri zdwhu suhvhqw lq d xqlw yroxph ri frqfuhwh/ �� +njp3�, lvdssur{lpdwhg e|=

�� %p> +6157,

zkhuh wkh surgxfw %p uhsuhvhqwv wkh zdwhu0�oohg srurvlw| dqg �� lv wkh ghqvlw|ri oltxlg zdwhu1

Li rqh ghqrwhv e| M� +njp32 v3�, wkh �x{ ri prlvwxuh lq oltxlg dqg ydsrxuirup/ wkh prgl�hg frqwlqxlw| htxdwlrq +Ht1 719, |lhogv=

Yw�Y| .gly M� @ 3= +6158,

Dw d jlyhq UK/ wzr wudqvsruw phfkdqlvpv frqwulexwh wr wkh wrwdo prlvwxuh�x{/ M�= exon pryhphqw ri oltxlg zdwhu lq erwk vdwxudwhg dqg xqvdwxudwhg sruhv/M�c,/ dqg ydsrxu pryhphqw +jdv skdvh, lq wkh xqvdwxudwhg sruhv/ M�c�1 D �uvwdssur{lpdwlrq lv wkdw wkh wrwdo jdv suhvvxuh lq wkh srurxv phglxp lv frqvwdqwdqg htxdo wr wkh dwprvskhulf suhvvxuh1 Wkxv/ zdwhu pryhphqw lq xqvdwxudwhgsruhv lv dvvxphg wr wdnh sodfh e| gl�xvlrq rqo| dqg khqfh lv ghvfulehg e| Ilfn*vodz=

M�c� @ �G�Y4�Y% > +6159,

zlwk G� +p2 v3�, wkh exon ydsrxu gl�xvlylw| dqg �� +njp3�, wkh ydsrxu ghqvlw|1

Oltxlg zdwhu lv gulyhq e| wkh exon oltxlg suhvvxuh S, +Sd, dqg iroorzv Gduf|*vodz=

M�c, @ �N,Y�,Y% @ ��

n

�Y�,Y% > +615:,

zlwk N, +v, wkh prlvwxuh0ghshqghqw shuphdelolw| frh�flhqw1 Wkh oltxlg frqgxf0wlylw| N, lv sursruwlrqdo wr wkh udwlr ri wkh lqwulqvlf shuphdelolw| ri wkh srurxv


phglxp/ n +p2,/ ghshqghqw rqo| rq wkh fkdudfwhulvwlf surshuwlhv ri wkh srurxvphgld/ dqg wkh ylvfrvlw| � +Sd v, ri wkh �xlg�1

Lqvhuwlqj Ht1 6159 dqg Ht1 615: lqwr Ht1 6158/ wkh wrwdo prlvwxuh frqvhuydwlrqiru frqfuhwh lq rqh0glphqvlrq lv ghvfulehg e|=

Yw�Y| @ � gly +M�c� . M�c,, @

YY%

kG�

Y4�Y% .N,

Y�,Y%

l= +615;,

D pruh ghwdlohg ghulydwlrq ri Ht1 615; lv jlyhq e| Pdhndzd hw do1 ^:4`1Wkh udwh ri fkdqjh ri ��/ lv dovr lq�xhqfhg e| fkdqjhv lq wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh

+h{suhvvhg lq whupv ri fkdqjh lq wrwdo srurvlw| dqg ri wkh srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq,dqg e| wkh k|gudwlrq surfhvv1 Pdwkhpdwlfdoo| irupxodwhg/ wkhvh frqwulexwlrqvkdyh wr eh dgghg wr Ht1 615;1 Ixuwkhupruh/ wkh txdqwlw| wkdw lv lq�xhqfhg e|dqg uhodwhv doo wkhvh frqwulexwlrqv lv wkh exon oltxlg suhvvxuh/ S,1 Zlwk uhvshfw wrwkh exon oltxlg suhvvxuh dovr wkh wudqvsruw frh�flhqwv/ G� dqg N, duh frqwlqxrxv1Frqvhtxhqwo|/ d sruh0suhvvxuh edvhg irupxodwlrq ri Ht1 615;/ lv ghvluhg1

Dvvxplqj wkdw lq Ht1 6157 wkh rqo| suhvvxuh0ghshqghqw txdqwlw| lv wkh wrwdoprlvwxuh frqwhqw/ p @ p+S,, dqg dffrxqwlqj iru d g|qdplfdo plfurvwuxfwxuh/% @ %+w, exw ljqrulqj dq| sruh0zdwhu ghqvlw| h�hfw/ wkh ohiw0kdqg vlgh whup lqHt1 615; ehfrphv=

Yw�Y| @ ��%

Y6Y�,

Y�,Y| . ��p

Y0Y| = +615<,

Vlploduo|/ dvvxplqj d suhvvxuh ghshqghqfh ri wkh ydsrxu ghqvlw|/ wkh uljkw0kdqg vlgh whup fdq eh uhzulwwhq dv=

�gly M� @ YY%

k�G�

Y4�Y�,

.N,

�Y�,Y%

l@ Y

Y%

k+N� .N,,

Y�,Y%

l> +6163,

zlwk N� +v, wkh ydsrxu frqgxfwlylw| lq xqvdwxudwhg sruhv1

� i tii! @? i^�@|�L? |L _itUh�Mi |�i 4L�t|�hi |h@?tTLh| �? Ui4i?|�|�L�t 4@|ih�@*t� i uL**L�|�i @TThL@U� Lu �@i!@�@ i| @*� d.�o @UULh_�?} |L ��U�c uLh @?@*)t�?} |�i }i?ih�U t@|�h@|i_��?t@|�h@|i_ �L� �? @ TLhL�t 4i_��4c @ TLhi�Thitt�hi M@ti_ uLh4�*@|�L? �t @_LT|i_� 6Lh ML|�|�i 4L�i4i?| �? |�i *�^��_ @?_ }@t T�@tic |�i UL?|h�M�|�L? _�i |L UL?�iU|�L? �t UL?t�_ihi_?i}*�}�M*i� A��tc *�^��_ �@|ih �t |h@?tTLh|i_ MiU@�ti Lu }h@_�i?|t �? U@T�**@h) @U|�L? L?*)� A�iuLh4�*@|�L? Lu #@hU)<t *@� |�@| �i �ti E,^� ��2.� �t i^��@*i?| |LG

^,' 3&Ew,� }o@_ �S

��ihi �S E�@� �t |�i 4@UhLtULT�U U@T�**@h) Thitt�hi @?_ &Et� �t |�i igiU|��i Tih4i@M�*�|) _iTi?�_i?| L? |�i @U|�@* �L*�4i|h�U *�^��_ �@|ih UL?|i?|c w,�A��t *@t| uLh4�*@|�L? �t Lu|i? i4T*L)i_�? |�i M��*_�?}%i?}�?iih�?} *�|ih@|�hi�


Wkh udwh ri prlvwxuh orvv gxh wr fkhplfdo �{dwlrq ri zdwhu kdv wr eh dgghgdv d vlqn whup lq Ht1 615;=

T�+_o @_Ek)`R�

_| = +6164,

Wklv whup lv ghshqghqw rq wkh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/ �/ zklfk lq wxuq ghshqgvrq wkh dydlodeoh fdsloodu| frqghqvhg zdwhu +Ht1 618,1 Wkh prlvwxuh orvv gxh wrk|gudwlrq lv ghshqghqw rq wkh srzghu frpsrvlwlrq dqg lv rewdlqhg iurp wkh pxowl0frpsrqhqw khdw0ri0k|gudwlrq prgho edvhg rq wkh uhdfwlrq sdwwhuqv ri srzghufrpsrqhqwv1 Lq wkh prgho/ erwk � dqg * duh xsgdwhg zlwk wkh rqjrlqj k|gudwlrq/dffruglqj wr wkh vdph pxowl0frpsrqhqw khdw0ri0k|gudwlrq prgho ghvfulehg lqVhfwlrq 6151

Frpelqlqj Ht1 615; zlwk Ht1 615</ Ht1 6163 dqg Ht1 6164 dqg dffrxqwlqj irud pxowl0frpsrqhqw glylvlrq ri srurvlw| dqg ri zdwhu lq frqfuhwh/ rqh rewdlqv djhqhudo htxdwlrq ghvfulelqj wkh prlvwxuh wudqvsruw lq frqfuhwh=

��

�S�%�

Y6�

Y�,

�Y�,Y| � gly ^+N, .N�, judg S,`

.��

�S�p�

Y0�Y�,

��

YEk)`R�Y| @ 3= +6165,

Wkh ghyhorsphqw ri wkh sruh vwuxfwxuh +wklug whup, lv uhodwhg wr wkh frqfhsw risduwlfoh h{sdqvlrq wkdw judgxdoo| wdnhv sodfh/ frqfxuuhqw zlwk wkh hyroxwlrq rik|gudwlrq1 Wkh frqgxfwlylw| ri oltxlg dqg ydsrxu prlvwxuh +vhfrqg whup, dqgwkh prlvwxuh fdsdflw| ri wkh sruhv +�uvw whup, zloo eh hydoxdwhg qh{w/ edvhg rqwkh sruh0vwuxfwxuh prgho ghvfulehg lq Vhfwlrq 6161 Wkh lqgh{ l lqglfdwhv wkhvxppdwlrq ryhu wkh fdsloodu|/ jho dqg lqwhuod|hu frpsrqhqwv1

Wkh prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrq/ p�/ dqg wkh frqgxfwlylw| ri oltxlg dqg ydsrxu prlv0wxuh/ N, dqg N� zloo eh vhsdudwho| ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq 61715 dqg vhfwlrq 617161

��e�2 �L�t|�hi t@|�h@|�L?

Dv ghvfulehg lq wkh ehjlqqlqj ri wklv fkdswhu/ wkh surfhvv ri prlvwxuh wudqvsruwwdnhv sodfh lq vhyhudo vwhsv1 Dw d fhuwdlq wlph dqg iru d jlyhq UK wkh prlvwxuhvdwxudwlrq/ p� frqvwlwxwhv ri= ixoo| vdwxudwhg sruhv �oohg zlwk zdwhu lq d frq0ghqvhg irup +pS,/ xqvdwxudwhg sruhv zlwk d od|hu ri dgvruehg zdwhu prohfxohvdw wkh vrolg vxuidfh +p@_r, dqg lqn0erwwoh sruhv1 Wkh odwwhu sruhv duh odujh sruhvlqwhufrqqhfwhg rqo| zlwk pxfk pruh qduurz sruhv vxfk wkdw prlvwxuh fdq rqo| ehorvw rqfh wkh frqqhfwlqj sruhv duh qrw dq|pruh vdwxudwhg +p�?&,1 Wklv glylvlrq


dssolhv pdlqo| wr wkh fdsloodu| dqg jho sruhv1 Lq wkh iroorzlqj glvfxvvlrq lw lv dv0vxphg wkdw doo sruhv duh f|olqgulfdo lq vkdsh1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ iru d qrq0lqwhuod|huqrupdolvhg srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq/ %S}/ jlyhq e|=

%S} @0Sd�3i TE3�So�on0} d�3i TE3�}o�o

E0Sn0}�+6166,

wkh fruuhvsrqglqj ghjuhh ri vdwxudwlrq iru dq| duelwudu| gu|lqj0zhwwlqj klvwru|zrxog eh=

pS} @pS .p@_r .p�?&= +6167,

Wr rewdlq wkh wrwdo pdvv ri zdwhu suhvhqw lq d xqlw yroxph ri frqfuhwh wkh lqwhu0od|hu frpsrqhqw lv dovr frqvlghuhg=

�� @ �� ^%,p, . +%S . %},pS}` = +6168,

Wkh ghjuhh ri vdwxudwlrq ri wkh lqwhuod|hu sruhv +p,, lv frqqhfwhg wr dpelhqwuhodwlyh kxplglw| dqg lv ghvfulehg e| hpslulfdo uhodwlrqv ^:4`1 Uhprydo ri lqwhu0od|hu zdwhu kdsshqv rqo| xqghu frqglwlrqv ri vhyhuh gu|lqj +43� 5(UK, ehlqjdffrpsdqlhg e| d frqvlghudeoh fkdqjh lq wkh vl}h ri wkh vshflphq1 Krzhyhu/ uh0hqwu| ri lqwhuod|hu zdwhu lv gl�huhqw dqg surfhhgv judgxdoo| ryhu wkh hqwluh udqjhri UK1

Frqwulexwlrq iurp ixoo| vdwxudwhg sruhv

Iluvw wkhuh zloo eh d fdwhjru| ri ixoo| vdwxudwhg sruhv zkhuh wkh oltxlg prlvwxuhlv lq wkhuprg|qdplf htxloleulxp zlwk wkh ydsrxu skdvh/ dq| vpdoo fkdqjh lqwkh suhvvxuh ru uhodwlyh kxplglw| ri wkh jdv skdvh zloo ohdg wr d fkdqjh lq wkholtxlg suhvvxuh skdvh1 Wkh ydoxh ri wkh udglxv ur+p, xs wr zklfk doo sruhv duhfrpsohwho| �oohg zlwk zdwhu/ dw d jlyhq dpelhqw UK / lv rewdlqhg dv=

ur @ �2j�4�-A

�*?-M > +6169,

zlwk P+nj pro3�, ehlqj wkh prohfxodu pdvv ri oltxlg/ U wkh xqlyhuvdo jdv frq0vwdqw/ W+N, wkh devroxwh whpshudwxuh dqg �+Qp3�, wkh vxuidfh whqvlrq ri wkholtxlg1 Wklv uhodwlrq lv rewdlqhg e| frpelqlqj Nhoylq*v htxdwlrq/

S, @4�-A� oq UK> +616:,

617 Prlvwxuh wudqvsruw prgho 9:

zklfk uhodwhv wkh oltxlg suhvvxuh S, wr wkh uhodwlyh kxplglw| ri wkh dwprvskhuh/UK dqg Odsodfh*v htxdwlrq=

S, @ �2jo = +616;,

Ht1 616; olqnv wkh fxuydwxuh ri dq lqwhuidfh/ u>wr wkh suhvvxuh gl�huhqfh ryhu lw1Lq erwk htxdwlrqv wkh suhvvxuh gl�huhqfh lv frpsxwhg uhodwlyho| wr wkh ydsrxusuhvvxuh wkdw lv dvvxphg vpdoo dqg frqvwdqw dqg/ iru wklv uhdvrq/ vhw wr }hur1

Lqwhjudwlqj wkh sruh yroxph o|lqj ehorz wkh sruh udglxv ur/ wkh zdwhu frqwhqwlq d srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq jlyhq e| Ht1 614< lv=

pr @orUf

g @ 4� h{s +�Eur, = +616<,

Frqwulexwlrq iurp xqvdwxudwhg sruhv

Lq dgglwlrq wr wkh ixoo| vdwxudwhg sruhv dovr sduwo| vdwxudwhg sruhv zlwk zdwhu lqdq dgvruehg skdvh duh suhvhqw1 Dgvruswlrq lv fdxvhg e| wkh Ydq ghu Zddov irufhvwkdw dfw ehwzhhq wkh kljk0hqhujhwlf prohfxohv dw wkh vxuidfh ri wkh vrolg pdwul{dqg wkh dgvruedwh prohfxohv1 D od|hu ri �qlwh wklfnqhvv ri dgvruehg prohfxohv lviruphg dw wkh vrolg vxuidfh1 Dsso|lqj wkh Eudxqhu0Hpphw0Whoohu +EHW, wkhru|prgl�hg e| Kloohueruj ^:4`/ wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh dgvruehg od|hu ri zdwhu/ w@ +p,/iru vlolfdwh pdwhuldov fdq eh frpsxwhg dv=

w@ @f�D2D u�f3H -M�

�3 -M-M6

��3 -M

-M6n�D-M

� > +6173,

zkhuh UK6 @ h{s�32j�4�-A o�

�dv h{suhvvhg e| Ht1 616: lv wkh kxplglw| uhtxluhg

wr ixoo| vdwxudwh wkh sruh dqg u� @ u� w@ wkh fruuhfwhg lqwhuidfh udglxv1 Iru rqhsruh/ wkh ghjuhh ri vdwxudwlrq lv po @ 4�

�o3|@o

�2> zkloh wkh wrwdo vdwxudwlrq lq

d glvwulexwlrq jlyhq e| Ht1 614< lv +lqfoxglqj ixoo| dqg sduwldoo| vdwxudwhg sruhv,=

p@_r @

oS]f

g .

"]oS

pog @pS .

"]oS

uEpo h{s+�Eu,g oq u= +6174,

Wkh sruh udglxv dw zklfk wkh htxloleudwhg lqwhuidfh ri oltxlg dqg ydsrxu lvfuhdwhg/ uS/ lv sursruwlrqdo wr ur +Ht1 6169,/ wkh sursruwlrqdolw| frqvwdqw +F @5=48, ehlqj ghwhuplqhg iurp qxphurxv frpsdulvrqv ri wkh dqdo|wlfdo suhglfwlrqvri wkh htxloleudwhg lqwhuidfh udgll dv rewdlqhg iurp wkh prgl�hg EHW wkhru| dqg

9; Frqfuhwh prghoolqj

ur dv jlyhq e| Nhoylq*v htxdwlrq ^:4`1 Lw vkrxog eh srlqwhg rxw wkdw wkh udglxvuS lv odujhu wkdq wkh sruh udglxv ur1 Lq wklv zd| rqh dffrxqwv iru sruhv vdwxudwhggxh wr frqghqvdwlrq dqg dgvruswlrq1 Dv Ht1 6174 lv lpsolflw lq wkh yduldeoh w@/ wkhlqwhjudo lq Ht1 6174 lv hydoxdwhg iurp d prgl�hg h{suhvvlrq sursrvhg e| Pdhndzdhw do1 ^:4`1

K|vwhuhvlv ri prlvwxuh dgvruswlrq dqg ghvruswlrq

Qrw rqo| iru frqfuhwh exw dovr iru rwkhu srurxv pdwhuldov lw zdv revhuyhg wkdwwkh dprxqw ri zdwhu lq frqfuhwh ghshqgv rq wkh klvwru| ri gu|lqj dqg zhwwlqj/h{klelwlqj d k|vwhuhvlv w|sh ri ehkdylrxu ^:4`1 Wkh prvw suredeoh fdxvh iru wklvehkdylrxu lv wkh lqn0erwwoh h�hfw/ l1h1 pdq| ri wkh odujhu sruhv kdyh lqwhufrq0qhfwlrqv rqo| wkurxjk sruhv pxfk vpdoohu lq udglxv vxfk dv prlvwxuh fdq rqo|eh h{fkdqjhg dv orqj dv wkh frqqhfwlqj sruhv duh qrw vdwxudwhg1 Wkxv/ iru dqduelwudu| gu|lqj0zhwwlqj klvwru| wkh yroxph iudfwlrq ri wudsshg zdwhu p�?& dggvxs wr wkh yroxph iudfwlrq ri zdwhu lq vdwxudwhg sruhv/ pS/ wr rewdlq wkh wrwdovdwxudwlrq ri srurxv phgld1 Wkh wudsshg0zdwhu frqwulexwlrq fdq eh fdofxodwhgiru wkh iroorzlqj sdwwhuqv=

� d sulpdu| +ylujlq, zhwwlqj sdwk vwduwlqj iurp d frpsohwho| gulhg vwdwh1

� d sulpdu| +ylujlq, gu|lqj sdwk vwduwlqj iurp d frpsohwho| zhw vwdwh1

� vfdqqlqj zhwwlqj fxuyhv wkdw kdyh dv vwduwlqj srlqw d frpsohwho| gulhg vwdwh1Wkh dgvruswlrq sdwk zloo eh vlplodu wr wkh ylujlq rqh exw zkhq wkh uhodwlyhkxplglw| ghfuhdvhv/ wkh ghvruswlrq fxuyh zloo qrw uhwxuq wr wkh ylujlq fxuyh1

� vfdqqlqj gu|lqj fxuyhv wkdw kdyh dv vwduwlqj srlqw d frpsohwho| zhw vwdwh1Gxulqj wkh �uvw gu|lqj djdlq d fxuyh vlplodu wr wkh ylujlq rqh zloo eh iroorzhg1Krzhyhu/ zlwk lqfuhdvlqj dpelhqw uhodwlyh kxplglw| d judgxdo uh�oolqj ri sruhvzlwk prlvwxuh zloo wdnh sodfh vlwxdwlqj wkh dgvruswlrq orrs vrphzkhuh lqvlgh wkhk|vwhuhvlv sur�oh1

D k|vwhuhvlv prgho lv ehvw vxlwhg wr ghvfuleh vlwxdwlrqv fruuhvsrqglqj wrkljk uhodwlyh kxplglwlhv1 Dw orz uhodwlyh kxplglwlhv gl�huhqfhv rffxu gxh wr wkhvwurqjo| erxqg lqwhuod|hu zdwhu rq wkh FVK vxuidfh wkdw fdq qrw eh ghvfulehge| sk|vlfdo wkhuprg|qdplf prghov ri frqghqvdwlrq dqg dgvruswlrq1

��e�� L�t|�hi UL?_�U|��|)

Wr ghvfuleh wkh frqgxfwlylw| ri oltxlg dqg ydsrxu prlvwxuh lq Ht1 6165/ wzrfkdudfwhulvwlfv kdyh wr eh wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw=

617 Prlvwxuh wudqvsruw prgho 9<

� wkh wrwdo rshq srurvlw| iruplqj dq lqwhufrqqhfwhg qhwzrun ri sruhv wkurxjkzklfk wudqvsruw wdnhv sodfh>� wkh sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq zklfk ghflghv xsrq wkh udwh ri wudqvsruw1Oltxlg frqgxfwlylw|/ N,/ lv lpsruwdqw iru wkh exon pryhphqw ri oltxlg zdwhu

lq ixoo| dqg sduwo| vdwxudwhg sruhv1 Iru sduwo| vdwxudwhg sruhv dgglwlrqdo wudqv0sruw wdnhv sodfh yld gl�xvlrq dqg khqfh ydsrxu frqgxfwlylw|/ N� qhhgv wr ehlqfrusrudwhg1

Oltxlg frqgxfwlylw|

Dv vkrzq lq Ht1 615:/ wkh oltxlg frqgxfwlylw| N, lv jlyhq e| wkh udwlr ehwzhhqwkh lqwulqvlf shuphdelolw| ri wkh srurxv phglxp/ n +p2,/ ghshqghqw rqo| rq wkhfkdudfwhulvwlf surshuwlhv ri wkh srurxv phgld/ dqg wkh ylvfrvlw| � +Sd v, ri wkh�xlg1 Iru qrq0lghdo frqglwlrqv/ wkh ylvfrvlw| � lv qrw d frqvwdqw +��, exw lvd�hfwhg e| ydulrxv lqwhudfwlrqv wkdw pd| ohdg wr dgglwlrqdo dfwlydwlrq ri �rzfkdudfwhulvhg e| d Jleev iuhh hqhuj| Je +M npro3�,=

� @ �� h{s�Ce

-A

�= +6175,

Iru zdwhu lq frqfuhwh wkh lqwhudfwlrqv zlwk wkh sruhv dqg wkh zkroh plfurvwuxfwxuhdffrxqw iru d qrq0lghdo vwdwh ^:4`1

Dq h{suhvvlrq iru wkh lqwulqvlf shuphdelolw| n lv rewdlqhg e| frpsdulqj Gduf|*vodz ri vdwxudwhg �rz zlwk wkh h{suhvvlrq iru vwhdg|0vwdwh odplqdu �rz wkurxjkd srurxv phglxp lghdolvhg dv frqvlvwlqj ri d exqgoh ri vwudljkw fdsloodu| wxehv/l1h1=

�$M @ �

#�H>

�"Uf

ue^gD

�2$

_�_% > +6176,

zlwk ue^ wkh htxlydohqw sruh udglxv ri wkh sruh v|vwhp/ l1h1 wkh jhrphwulf phdqri dq| wzr ri wkh sruh udgll lq wkh sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq dqg gD wkh qrupdolvhgduhd ri doo wkh sruhv zlwk udglxv ue^ lq d furvv0vhfwlrq ri wkh phglxp qrupdo wrwkh �rz jhqhudwhg e| wkh dssolhg suhvvxuh judglhqw _�

_% = Lw lv dvvxphg wkdw wkhsruhv lq wkh furvv0vhfwlrq duh lqghshqghqwo| duudqjhg1 Wkhuhiruh/ d wruwxrvlw|idfwru � @ 0|J|@,_T

_� @�Z2

�2fruuhvsrqglqj wr d xqlirupo| udqgrp srurxv phglxp

lv wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ rqh rewdlqv iru wkh lqwulqvlf shuphdelolw|=

n @ �H

�"Uf

ue^gD

�2

�02|J|@,

Df

�"Uf

ue^gY

�2

= +6177,

:3 Frqfuhwh prghoolqj

Wkh rqo| sdudphwhu lq wklv h{suhvvlrq lv wkh srurvlw| glvwulexwlrq ri wkh srurxvphglxp1 Zlwk � dqg n ghwhuplqhg iurp Ht1 6175 dqg Ht1 6177 dqg iru d srurv0lw| glvwulexwlrq jlyhq e| Ht1 6166/ wkh oltxlg frqgxfwlylw| N, iru vdwxudwhg dqgxqvdwxudwhg sruhv dw d jlyhq UK/ lv frpsxwhg dv=

N, @4�0

2

|J|@,

Df>

�0S0S}

i TE3�SoS�E3�SoS3��n��S

. 0}0S}

i TE3�}oS�E3�}oS3��n��}

�2>

zkhuh wkh xsshu olplw ri wkh lqwhjudo lq Ht1 6177 zdv uS @ 5=48 ur/ ur ehlqjrewdlqhg iurp Ht1 61691

Ydsrxu frqgxfwlylw|

Dv suhylrxvo| phqwlrqhg/ ydsrxu gl�xvlrq lv grplqdqw dw orz UK/ prvw ri wkhgl�xvlyh �rz wdnlqj sodfh lq wkh jho sruhv kdylqj d udglxv frpsdudeoh wr wkh phdqiuhh sdwk ri wkh gl�xvlyh prohfxohv1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ erwk prohfxodu +G6, dqgNqxgvhq gl�xvlrq +Gg, frqwulexwh wr wkh ryhudoo gl�xvlyh phfkdqlvp lq d sruh1Xvlqj Ht1 716; wr fdofxodwh wkh ydsrxu gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwG� dv fruuhvsrqglqj wrwkdw ri d wudqvlwlrq uhjlph dqg wkh gh�qlwlrqv ri wkh Nqxgvhq qxpehu +Ht1 7167dqg Ht1 7169,/ Ilfn*v odz +Ht1 6159, iru wkh grpdlq ri xqvdwxudwhg sruhv/ pd| ehuhzulwwhq dv=

M�c� @ �

"]oS

(6_�

�n� �2oe

� _4�_% @ � 0|J|@,(6

�

"]oS

_T

�n� �2oe

� _4�_% > +6178,

zkhuh iru zdwhu prohfxohv wkh phdq iuhh sdwk kdv d ydoxh ��@314 �p dqg uehtxdov wkh gl�huhqfh ehwzhhq wkh dfwxdo sruh udglxv/ u> dqg wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkhdgvruehg zdwhu od|hu/ w@/ dv fdofxodwhg e| Ht1 61731 E| fdofxodwlqj wkh lqwhjudo iruwkh frpelqhg fdsloodu|0jho sruh glvwulexwlrq +Ht1 6166,/ wkh ydsrxu frqgxfwlylw|/N�/ ehfrphv=

N� @4�0|J|@,(6

��36|J|@,

�n�

�2Eo63|6�

�� -M4�-A

�> +6179,

zkhuh u6 lv wkh ch�hfwlyh* dyhudjh vl}h ri wkh xqvdwxudwhg sruhv +fruuhfwhg iruwkh dgvruehg zdwhu od|hu, h{suhvvhg dv d jhrphwulf phdq wr zklfk dq dgvruehgzdwhu od|hu ri wklfnqhvv w6 fruuhvsrqgv1

Lq vxppdu|/ doo sdudphwhuv lq Ht1 6165 ehlqj hydoxdwhg/ d g|qdplfdo frxsolqjri wkh surfhvv ri k|gudwlrq/ plfurvwuxfwxuh irupdwlrq dqg prlvwxuh wudqvsruw lvdfklhyhg/ surylglqj d wrro qrw rqo| wr ghwhuplqh dw hdfk wlph vwhs wkh sruh0oltxlgsuhvvxuh exw dovr vhyhudo rwkhu lqwhuqdo yduldeohv1

618 Frqfuhwh dv d frpsrvlwh srurxv phglxp :4

��D �L?Uhi|i @t @ UL4TLt�|i TLhL�t 4i_��4

Wkh zkroh ghvfulswlrq suhvhqwhg vr idu zdv ghulyhg xqghu wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdwfrqfuhwh lv d xqlirup/ lvrwurslf dqg krprjhqhrxv srurxv phglxp1 Wklv lpsolhvwkdw wkh sk|vlfdo fkdudfwhulvwlf ri lwv frpsrqhqwv +djjuhjdwhv/ fhphqw sdvwh pd0wul{/ djjuhjdwh0fhphqw sdvwh lqwhuidfhv, duh oxpshg lqwr d vlqjoh uhsuhvhqwdwlyhsrurxv phglxp dqg wkdw ydulrxv wudqvsruwdeoh skdvhv lq wkh frpsrvlwh h{lvw lqdq htxloleulxp vwdwh glvwulexwhg lqvlgh wkh srurxv qhwzrun1 Wkh ghvfulswlrq fdqvlpso| eh dgmxvwhg wr dffrxqw iru wkh suhvhqfh ri wkh �qh dqg frduvh iudfwlrqvri djjuhjdwhv e| shuiruplqj d yroxphwulf fruuhfwlrq1 Wklv fruuhfwlrq zloo/ krz0hyhu/ vwloo qrw wdnh lqwr dffrxqw wkh orfdo prlvwxuh wudqvihu ehwzhhq djjuhjdwhdqg fhphqw sdvwh pdwul{ ru wkh suhvhqfh ri wkh lqwhuidfldo }rqh1 Dv phqwlrqhglq fkdswhu 5/ wkh h{lvwhqfh ri djjuhjdwh0fhphqw sdvwh lqwhuidfhv dqg wkhlu fkdqfhiru ehlqj frqqhfwhg zloo ghflvlyho| lq�xhqfh wkh wudqvsruw surshuwlhv ri frqfuhwh1

Li shufrodwlrq fdq eh dyrlghg wudqvsruw zloo suhgrplqdqwo| wdnh sodfh yld wkhfhphqw sdvwh dqg frqfuhwh fdq eh ghvfulehg h�hfwlyho| dv d xqlirup/ krprjhqhrxvdqg lvrwurslf phglxp1 Li shufrodwlrq sod|v d uroh/ frqfuhwh kdv wr eh wuhdwhg dvd frpsrvlwh pdwhuldo +iru ghwdlov wkh uhdghu lv uhihuuhg wr Pdhndzd hw do1 ^:4`,1

Lq frqfoxvlrq lw fdq eh vwdwhg wkdw dowkrxjk frqfuhwh lv d pdwhuldo zlwk dkljk ghjuhh ri lqkrprjhqhlw| dqg udqgrpqhvv/ lq vrph fdvhv +olnh/ iru h{dpsoh/wkdw ri vhoi0frpsdfwlqj kljk0shuirupdqfh frqfuhwh, lwv surshuwlhv duh vx�flhqwo|zhoo ghvfulehg e| rqo| frqvlghulqj wkh fhphqw sdvwh vlqfh pdlqo| wkh sk|vlfv dqgfkhplvwu| ri wkh sdvwh ghwhuplqh wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh ri frqfuhwh dqg lwv prlv0wxuh wudqvsruw surshuwlhv1 Wklv pdnhv frqfuhwh vxlwdeoh wr eh ghvfulehg dv dkrprjhqhrxv dqg xqlirup phglxp1

Wkh qxphulfdo lpsohphqwdwlrq ri wkh prgho ghvfulehg lq wklv fkdswhu zlooeh xvhg wr rewdlq lqirupdwlrq rq plfurvwuxfwxuh dqg prlvwxuh hyroxwlrq iru wkhfrqfuhwh vdpsohv lqyhvwljdwhg lq wkh suhvhqw vwxg|1

�

#�g�t�L? Lu h@_L? �? UL?Uhi|i

e�� W?|hL_�U|�L?

Iurp wkhlu jhqhudwlrq lqvlgh d srurxv phglxp xs wr wkhlu uhohdvh lqwr wkh hqyl0urqphqw/ wkh mrxuqh| ri udgrq dwrpv lv fdxvhg e| d frpelqdwlrq ri sk|vlfdo odzvghvfulelqj lqwhudfwlrqv zlwk wkh vxuurxqglqjv1 Wkh ghfd| ri udglxp dwrpv/ qdwx0udoo| rffxuulqj lq hduwk fuxvw pdwwhu lqfoxglqj pdq0pdgh exloglqj pdwhuldov/ zloosurgxfh udgrq1 Dw wkhlu wxuq/ udgrq dwrpv zloo eh uhohdvhg2hpdqdwhg iurp wkhvrolg judlqv ri wkh pdwhuldo lqwr wkh sruh vsdfh suhgrplqdqwo| e| uhfrlo dqg e|gl�xvlrq wkurxjk wkh vrolg pdwul{1 Suhvvxuh dqg2ru frqfhqwudwlrq judglhqwv zloowkhq wudqvsruw wkh udgrq dwrpv wr wkh vxuidfh ri wkh srurxv phglxp wkurxjkwkuhh skdvhv= vrolgv/ dlu dqg zdwhu1 Pruhryhu/ udgrq dwrpv ehlqj udglrdfwlyh/pd| glvdsshdu iurp wkh v|vwhp e| qxfohdu ghfd|1 D pxowl0skdvh wlph0ghshqghqwwudqvsruw htxdwlrq zloo kdyh wr dffrxqw iru doo wkhvh idfwruv wkdw d�hfw wkh mrxuqh|ri udgrq dwrpv wkurxjk wkh srurxv phglxp +frqfuhwh,1

Wklv wkhvlv uhvwulfwv lwvhoi wr gl�xvlyh wudqvsruw1 Lq wklv fkdswhu/ edvhg rq jhq0

:6

:7 Gl�xvlrq ri udgrq lq frqfuhwh

hudo odzv ri wudqvsruw iru d �xlg +vhfwlrq 715,/ d wlph0ghshqghqw udgrq0gl�xvlrqhtxdwlrq lq d srurxv phglxp zloo eh suhvhqwhg +vhfwlrq 717,1 Wklv htxdwlrq zloodovr kdyh wr frqwdlq wkh wzr fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri udgrq +lwv ghfd| dqg surgxfwlrqiurp wkh vrolg pdwul{, dv zhoo dv wkh lqwhudfwlrqv ri udgrq zlwk hdfk ri wkh skdvhvri wkh phglxp1 Wkhvh ihdwxuhv duh vhsdudwho| ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq 7161 Frq0vrolgdwhg +l1h1 frqfuhwh, dqg xqfrqvrolgdwhg +l1h1 vdqg, srurxv phgld h{klelwglvvlplodu wudqvsruw surshuwlhv1 Vhfwlrq 718 frqwdlqv d eulhi glvfxvvlrq rq wklvwrslf hvshfldoo| irfxvlqj rq wkh vwuxfwxudo gl�huhqfhv> Nqxgvhq gl�xvlrq/ dv dsrvvleoh wudqvsruw phfkdqlvp lq frqfuhwh/ lv dovr h{dplqhg1

e�2 �@t�U *@�t Lu |h@?tTLh| @?_ _itUh�T|�L? Lu @ TLhL�t

4i_��4

Dsso|lqj wkh odz ri frqvhuydwlrq ri pdvv wr d vwdwlrqdu| hohphqwdu| yroxphg{ g| g} wkurxjk zklfk d �xlg lv �rzlqj zlwk yhorflw| �$y +p v3�,/ wkh frqwlqxlw|htxdwlrq |lhogv=

Y4Y| @ �+gly ��$y ,> +714,

zlwk � +njp3�, wkh �xlg ghqvlw| dqg ��$y +njp32 v3�, wkh pdvv �x{ dv vhhq e|dq revhuyhu iroorzlqj wkh �xlg prwlrq1 D sduwlfxodu fdvh ri wklv htxdwlrq lv wkdwri dq lqfrpsuhvvleoh �xlg +frqvwdqw ghqvlw|,/ l1h1 +gly �$y , @ 3=

Ixuwkhupruh/ wr ghvfuleh wkh pdvv wudqvsruw ri dq| ri wkh vshflhv frpsrvlqjd jdv pl{wxuh/ fdxvhg e| d frqfhqwudwlrq judglhqw/ xvxdoo| wkh gl�xvlrq htxd0wlrq/ nqrzq dv Ilfn*v �uvw odz/ lv hpsor|hg1 Wklv odz uhodwhv wkh produ �x{ rijdv/ M6 +prop32 v3�,/ wr wkh fruuhvsrqglqj frqfhqwudwlrq judglhqw e| xvlqj wkhprohfxodu gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw/ G6 +p2 v3�,/ dv d sursruwlrqdolw| frqvwdqw=

M6 @ �G6 judg F= +715,

Dfwxdoo| wkh htxdwlrq deryh lv xvhg wr gh�qh wkh prohfxodu gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw/G6/ dv wkh �x{ lq prohv +ru nj, shu wlph shu xqlw ri furvv0vhfwlrqdo duhd irudq dssolhg xqlw frqfhqwudwlrq judglhqw1 Dw orz suhvvxuhv/ wkh prohfxodu ru vhoi0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw ri d jdv lv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh devroxwh whpshudwxuh W +N,/ riwkh suhvvxuh/ s +Sd, dqg ri wkh frpsrvlwlrq/ wkh odwwhu ehlqj ghvfulehg e| wkhprodu pdvv ri wkh jdv/ �6 +nj pro3�, dqg wkh prohfxodu gldphwhu �6 +p,1 Xvlqjwkh nlqhwlf wkhru| ri jdvhv/ G6 pd| eh h{suhvvhg dv=

G6 @ ��y� @

2&�A�*2

�Zj26 R

�-

Z>6

��*2= +716,

715 Edvlf odzv ri wudqvsruw dqg ghvfulswlrq ri d srurxv phglxp :8

Lq wklv htxdwlrq n� @ 4=6;�4332� MN3� lv wkh Erow}pdqq frqvwdqw/ U @ Q�n @;=64 Mpro3�N wkh frqvwdqw ri shuihfw jdvhv/ Q� @ 9=35�432� pro3� Dyrjdgur*vqxpehu/ y +p v3�, wkh phdq prohfxodu yhorflw| ri wkh jdv prohfxohv kdylqj pdvvp dqg � +p,/ wkh phdq iuhh sdwk ri wkh jdv prohfxohv1 Li rqh frqvlghuv wkdw wkhdyhudjh wlph ehwzhhq wzr vxffhvvlyh froolvlrqv lv � / � lv gh�qhg dv=

� @ y� @ &�AI2Zj26 R

= +717,

Wkxv/ gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv iru gl�huhqw jdvhv duh qrw wkh vdph1 Iru d pl{wxuh riwzr jdvhv ghqrwhg e| 4 dqg 5/ wkh prohfxodu gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv ri wkh frpsr0qhqwv duh pxwxdoo| uhodwhg yld=

(6�

(62@

j26c2

j26c�

t>6c2

>6c�= +718,

Wklv uhodwlrq lv yhu| riwhq hpsor|hg lq sudfwlfh wr ghwhuplqh wkh gl�xvlrq frhi0�flhqw ri rqh ri wkh vshflhv lq wkh pl{ zkhq wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw ri wkh rwkhujdv lv phdvxuhg1

Wkh frqwlqxlw| htxdwlrq dqg Ilfn*v odz ri gl�xvlrq duh dovr xvhg wr ghvfulehwkh wudqvsruw ri d �xlg wkurxjk d srurxv phglxp/ wdnlqj lqwr dffrxqw lwv jhrp0hwu|1 Ghqrwlqj wkh exon �x{ ghqvlw| ri �xlg shu xqlw ri furvv vhfwlrqdo duhd riwkh srurxv phglxp e| M +p�p32 v3�,/ rqh jhwv=� wkh prgl�hg htxdwlrq ri frqwlqxlw| =

%Y4Y| @ �+gly ��$M ,> +719,

� wkh prgl�hg Ilfn*v odz =

�$M8 @ �GK�,& judg F= +71:,

Lw lv xvxdoo| dvvxphg wkdw d exon wudqvsruw frh�flhqw +olnh GK�,&, lv sursruwlrqdowr wkh frh�flhqw ri wkh wudqvsruwhg skdvh lq wkh devhqfh ri wkh srurxv phglxp/pxowlsolhg zlwk d ixqfwlrq ri wkh vwuxfwxudo sdudphwhuv1

Wkh sruhv frpsrvlqj wkh phglxp fdq eh lqwhufrqqhfwhg/ iruplqj d qhwzrun/wkh| fdq kdyh d ghdg0hqg ru rffxu lvrodwhg wkurxjkrxw wkh vrolg erg|1 Gxoolhq ^67`vxjjhvwhg wkdw lw lv lpsruwdqw wr glvwlqjxlvk ehwzhhq wkh wzr nlqgv ri sruhv= wkrvhiruplqj dq lqwhufrqqhfwhg skdvh wkurxjk wkh srurxv phglxp/ l1h1 wkh h�hfwlyhsruh vsdfh dqg glvshuvhg dqg qrq0lqwhufrqqhfwhg sruhv wkdw kdyh olwwoh ru qrfrqwulexwlrq wr �rz1 Zlwk wkh h{fhswlrq ri h{wuhpho| xqlirup vwuxfwxuhv dqg sruhvl}hv/ xvxdoo| d fruuhfwlrq idfwru dffrxqwlqj iru wkh lqwhufrqqhfwlylw| ri wkh sruhv

:9 Gl�xvlrq ri udgrq lq frqfuhwh

pxvw eh rewdlqhg h{shulphqwdoo| + ^67`/ ^68`/ ^455`/ ^463`,1 Pruhryhu/ Fdupdq ^58`vxjjhvwhg wkdw gl�xvlrq glvwdqfhv lq wruwxrxv sruhv duh odujhu wkdq wkrvh qrupdowr wkh idfh1 Wklv idfw wkdw kdv wr eh wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw dqg Nr}hq| ^97` zdv �uvwwr lqwurgxfh wkh frqfhsw ri wruwxrvlw| �1

Frqvhtxhqwo|/ wkh exon gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq Ht1 71: htxdov wkh prohfxodugl�xvlrq frh�flhqw fruuhfwhg iru srurvlw|/ %/ dqg wruwxrvlw|/ � / l1h1=

GK�,& @ %�G6= +71;,

Wruwxrvlw|/ � / lv riwhq gh�qhg dv wkh udwlr ri wkh vwudljkw0olqh glvwdqfh wr wkhdfwxdo prohfxodu sdwk ohqjwk1 Wkh ydoxh ri � dssurdfkhv 4 iru d srurxv phglxpzlwk doprvw vwudljkw sruhv dqg lw zloo whqg wr }hur li wkh sruhv kdyh vhyhudo wzlvwvdqg wxuqv1

D srurxv phglxp fdq eh uhjdughg dv d pxowl0skdvh v|vwhp= d vrolg pdwhuldowudyhuvhg e| luuhjxoduo| vkdshg dqg srvlwlrqhg sruhv/ �oohg zlwk dlu +jdv, dqg2ruzdwhu1 Wkh prvw dffxudwh uhsuhvhqwdwlrq lv dfklhyhg e| dq h{dfw ghvfulswlrq riwkh jhrphwulfdo frq�jxudwlrq rq d plfurvfrslf ohyho1 Vxfk d ghvfulswlrq lv txlwhgl�fxow/ li hyhq srvvleoh/ dqg frpsoh{1 Wkh whfkqltxh +frqwlqxxp0dssurdfk,prvwo| xvhg lq sudfwlfh lv wkh dyhudjlqj ri wkh phdvxudeoh txdqwlwlhv +olnh suhv0vxuh/ ghqvlw|/ hwf1,/ wkdw rqo| ydu| dw d pdfurvfrslf vfdoh/ ryhu d vpdoo uhjlrqri vsdfh= d Uhsuhvhqwdwlyh Hohphqwdu| Yroxph +UHY,1 Wklv yroxph vkrxog ehodujhu wkdq wkh sruh vl}h exw wkh yroxph vkrxog qrw eh vr odujh wkdw hvvhqwldoyduldwlrqv lq surshuwlhv ri wkh phglxp duh krprjhqlvhg dqg wkxv orvw1 Wkh dy0hudjhg txdqwlwlhv duh dvvljqhg wr wkh qrgdo srlqwv orfdwhg lq wkh fhqwuh ri wkhUHY = d frqwlqxrxv phglxp lv uhsodfhg e| d qhwzrun ri qrgdo srlqwv1 Qrupdoo|/wkhuh duh wkuhh skdvhv frqvwlwxwlqj d srurxv pdwhuldo/ l1h1 vrolg/ zdwhu dqg jdv1Wkxv/ zh pd| zulwh wkh hohphqwdu| yroxph/ �Y / dv wkh vxp ri wkh vrolg yroxph/�Yr/ dqg wkdw ri wkh sruh yroxph/ �YR/ hlwkhu �oohg zlwk dlu/ �Y@/ ru zdwhu/ �Y�=

�Y @ �Yr . �YR @ �Yr . �Y� . �Y@= +71<,

Xvlqj wklv qrwdwlrq zh gh�qh wkh wrwdo/ %/ dlu0�oohg/ %@ dqg zdwhu0�oohg/ %� srurvl0wlhv=

% @ BTRBT @ BT�

BT . BT@BT @ %� . %@= +7143,

��? i |i?_i_ _�tU�tt�L? hi*@|i_ |L |Lh|�Lt�|) U@? Mi uL�?_ �? #�**�i? E d�eoc TT� 22��2�f��L�@_@)tc ti�ih@* |�iLhi|�U@* t|�_�it |h) |L *�4T @** |�i t|h�U|�h@* ThLTih|�it Lu @ TLhL�t4i_��4 �?|L |Lh|�Lt�|) E d�Seoc d�2.oc dDHoc d��2o�� ) �t�?} !?L�*i_}i uhL4 |LTL*L}) @?_ Tih�UL*@|�L? |�iLh) E d��eoc d2eoc dSDoc d�.fo�c @ |�iLhi|�U@* it|�4@|�L? Lu |��t T@h@4i|ih �t tL�}�|�

716 Udgrq0uhodwhg fkdudfwhulvwlfv ::

Wkh iudfwlrq ri sruhv rffxslhg e| zdwhu ru ghjuhh ri zdwhu vdwxudwlrq/ p/ lvgh�qhg dv=

p @ BT�BTR

@ 0�0 = +7144,

Frpelqlqj Ht1 71</ Ht1 7143 dqg Ht1 7144 ohdgv wr=

�Y @ BTr�30 @

BTr�30@30� @ BTr

�3 0@�36

= +7145,

e�� +@_L?�hi*@|i_ U�@h@U|ih�t|�Ut

Udglxp lqfrusrudwhg lq wkh vrolg pdwul{ ri d srurxv phglxp lv d frqvwdqw vrxufhri udgrq surgxfwlrq1 Wkh udglxp frqwhqw ghqrwhg e| F-@> lv xvxdoo| h{suhvvhgdv dfwlylw| +Et, shu gu| pdvv +nj,1 Wkhuh duh irxu phfkdqlvpv wkdw dffrxqw iruudgrq hpdqdwlrq iurp vrolgv= gluhfw0uhfrlo/ gl�xvlrq wkurxjk wkh vrolg pdwul{/ lq0gluhfw uhfrlo dqg nqrfn0rxw h�hfw ^45<`1 Lq wkh prghov sursrvhg lq wkh olwhudwxuh+ ^;7`/ ^45<`/ ^464`, gluhfw uhfrlo/ gxh wr wkh hplvvlrq ri dq �0sduwlfoh lv frqvlghuhgwkh prvw lpsruwdqw phfkdqlvp1 Gxh wr wkh �0ghfd| ri udglxp wkh udgrq dwrprewdlqv d nlqhwlf hqhuj| ri ;9 nhY +zklfk lv derxw 7 wr 8 rughuv ri pdjqlwxghodujhu wkdq w|slfdo erqg hqhujlhv, doorzlqj lw wr hvfdsh iurp wkh fu|vwdoolqh vwuxf0wxuh1 Wkh uhfrlo udqjh ri 222Uq zlwklq wkh plqhudo vwuxfwxuh lv ri wkh rughu ri:3 qp ^;7`1 Gxh wr uhfrlo udgrq pd| hqwhu hlwkhu dq lqwhu ru dq lqwud0judqxoduvsdfh1 Rqo| wkh udgrq dwrpv wkdw zloo hqg xs lq wkh dlu ru zdwhu �oohg sruh vsdfhzloo eh iuhh wr gl�xvh dw d pdfurvfrslf vfdoh> udgrq lpsodqwhg lq wkh pdwhuldovxuidfh ri wkh sruh zdoo lv qrw dydlodeoh dq|pruh wr wudqvsruw1 Sruh zdwhu vljql�0fdqwo| uhgxfhv wkh hqhuj| ri wkh uhfrlohg udgrq dwrp vxfk dv wkh pd{lpxp uhfrloudqjh lq d vdwxudwhg sruh lv derxw 83 qp1 Wkh udwlr ri cdydlodeoh* +iru wudqvsruw,dqg surgxfhg udgrq lv uhihuuhg dv wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw/ �1 Wkh dydlodeohudgrq pd| hqg xs hlwkhu lq wkh jdv skdvh/ wkh oltxlg skdvh +frqvlghuhg dv ehlqjzdwhu, ru dv lpsodqwhg udgrq lq wkh vrolg skdvh=

� @ �@ . �� . �r= +7146,

Ydoxhv ri � ghshqg vwurqjo| rq wkh pdwhuldo dqg lwv vl}h= h1j1 vdqg �316 ^487`/skrvskrj|svxp 3140318 ^44:` dqg �| dvk �3135 ^:6`1

Wr ghvfuleh udgrq wudqvsruw wkurxjk d srurxv phglxp/ zlwk qr rwkhu frp0shwlqj phfkdqlvpv/ wkh wlph yduldwlrq ri wkh frqfhqwudwlrq ri udgrq dwrpv lvwkh vxp ri d vrxufh whup ghshqglqj rq wkh dprxqw ri udgrq ehlqj hpdqdwhg

:; Gl�xvlrq ri udgrq lq frqfuhwh

+surgxfwlrq, dqg wkdw ri d vlqn whup lq�xhqfhg e| wkh ghfd| udwh ri udgrq+�-? @ 5=4 433S v3�,1 Li d xqlw vrolg yroxph �Yr +p�, zlwk d ghqvlw| �r +njp

3�,kdv d udglxp frqwhqw ri F-@+Etnj3�,/ wkh udwh ri fkdqjh ri surgxfhg udgrqdwrpv/ Q-?

@ lq dq dlu0�oohg sruh vsdfh/ %@/ zlwklq wkh hohphqwdu| yroxph/ �Y+Ht1 7145, zloo eh=

_�-?@

_ | @ ��-?Q-?@ . �@�KF

-@�Y= +7147,

zkhuh �K @ +4� %,�r +njp3�, lv wkh exon gu| ghqvlw| ri wkh srurxv phglxp dqg

�@ lv wkh frh�flhqw ri hpdqdwlrq lq wkh dlu0�oohg sruh vsdfh1 Lq whupv ri wkhudgrq frqfhqwudwlrq/ F@ +Etp3�,/ ri wkh exon dlu0�oohg sruh vsdfh=

F@ @b-?�

-?@

0@BT= +7148,

Ht1 7147 pd| eh uhzulwwhq dv=

%@_�@_| @ �%@�-?F@ . �@�KF

-@�-?= +7149,

Iru d zdwhu0�oohg vsdfh/ %�> wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw lv ��/ dqg wkh exon udgrqfrqfhqwudwlrq/ F� +Etp3�, lv=

F� @ b-?�-?�

0�BT= +714:,

zlwk Q-?� ehlqj vpdoohu wkdq wkh qxpehu ri udgrq dwrpv suhvhqw lq wkh dlu0�oohg

sruh vsdfh/ Q-?@ 1 Ht1 7149 pd| eh uhzulwwhq iru wkh zdwhu0�oohg sruh vsdfh dv=

%�_�@_| @ �%��-?F� . ��KF

-@�-?= +714;,

Sduw ri wkh surgxfhg udgrq dwrpv duh hpdqdwhg gluhfwo| lqwr wkh vrolg skdvh dqg/frqvlghulqj wkdw dovr udgrq iurp wkh sruh vsdfh pd| jhw dgvruehg wr wkh vrolgvxuidfhv ri wkh srurxv phglxp/ wkh iroorzlqj edodqfh htxdwlrq iru wkh dgvruehgudgrq fdq eh zulwwhq=

�K_�r_| @ ��K�-?Fr . �r�KF

-@�-?> +714<,

zkhuh wkh dgvruehg udgrq dfwlylw|/ Fr +Et nj3�,/ shu xqlw gu| pdvv ri vrolg lvgh�qhg dv=

Fr @�Q-?

r

�K�Y> +7153,

zlwk �r wkh iudfwlrq ri udgrq dwrpv wkdw hpdqdwh lqwr dq lqwud0judqxodu vsdfhdqg Q-?

r wkh udwh ri fkdqjh ri wkh udgrq dwrpv lq wkh dgvruehg skdvh1Lq d jhqhulf zd|/ wkh exon surgxfwlrq udwh/ VK +Etp

3� v3�, lv gh�qhg dv=

VK @ ��KF-@�-?= +7154,

717 Pxowl0skdvh wlph0ghshqghqw udgrq gl�xvlrq :<

e�e ��*|��T�@ti |�4i�_iTi?_i?| h@_L? _�g�t�L?

Uhvsrqvleoh iru udgrq wudqvsruw wkurxjk wkh srurxv qhwzrun duh wkh frqfhqwudwlrqdqg2ru suhvvxuh judglhqwv jhqhudwlqj gl�xvlyh dqg dgyhfwlyh �x{hv/ uhvshfwlyho|1Lq wkh suhvhqw lqyhvwljdwlrq rqo| gl�xvlrq zloo eh frqvlghuhg1 Iru ghwdlov dqg dixoo ghulydwlrq lq fdvh dgyhfwlrq lv frqvlghuhg zh uhihu wr ^487`1 Dvvxplqj dlu wreh lqfrpsuhvvleoh dqg qrq0ylvfrxv/ wkh wlph0ghshqghqw udgrq gl�xvlrq htxdwlrqlv ghulyhg e| lqvhuwlqj lq wkh frqwlqxlw| htxdwlrq +Ht1 719, wkh h{suhvvlrq riwkh gl�xvlyh �x{ dv jlyhq e| Ilfn*v odz +Ht1 71:,/ zulwwhq lq whupv ri udgrqfrqfhqwudwlrqv lq wkh dlu skdvh/ F@ +Etp3�,1 Fruuhfwlrqv iru udgrq surgxfwlrqdqg ghfd| +Ht1 7149, dqg iru lwv h{fkdqjh zlwk wkh zdwhu dqg vrolg skdvhv duh wreh dgghg=

%@_�@_| @ gly +%@�G

@6 judg F@,� %@�-?F@ .

.�@�KF-@�-? � W@� . W�@ � W@r . Wr@> +7155,

zkhuh W@� dqg W@r +Etp3� v3�, gh�qh wkh udwh ri wudqvihu ri udgrq dfwlylw| shuxqlw yroxph iurp wkh dlu0�oohg sruh vsdfh wr wkh zdwhu0�oohg sruh vsdfh dqg vrolgvxuidfhv lq wkh UHY/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Wkh rssrvlwh pd| dovr kdsshq/ wkh wudqvihuwr wkh dlu �oohg sruh vsdfh iurp wkh vrolg vxuidfh ru wkh zdwhu0�oohg sruh vsdfhehlqj lqglfdwhg e| W�@ dqg Wr@ +Etp3� v3�,1

D vlplodu htxdwlrq fdq eh zulwwhq iru wkh zdwhu0�oohg sruh vsdfh=

%�_��_| @ gly +%��G

�6 judg F�,� %��-?F�

.��KF-@�-? . W@� � W�@> +7156,

zkhuh wkh wudqvihu wr dqg iurp wkh vrolg vxuidfh lv qhjohfwhg1 Wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdwwkh h{fkdqjh ehwzhhq wkh zdwhu dqg vrolg skdvh fdq eh ljqruhg lv frqvlvwhqw zlwkh{shulphqwdo uhvxowv wkdw vkrz dq h{srqhqwldoo| ghfuhdvlqj dgvruehg iudfwlrq riudgrq dfwlylw| zlwk sruh zdwhu frqwhqw + ^449`/ ^457`,1

Dv vxuidfh gl�xvlrq lv qrw frqvlghuhg/ wkh pdvv0edodqfh htxdwlrq iru wkh dg0vruehg skdvh ri udgrq lv hvvhqwldoo| Ht1 714< lq zklfk rqo| wudqvihu whupv duhlqfoxghg +qr vxuidfh gl�xvlrq,=

�K_�r_| @ ��K�-?Fr . �r�KF

-@�-? . W@r � Wr@= +7157,

Wr vlpsoli| wkh vlwxdwlrq rqh dvvxphv wkdw wkh udwh ri wudqvihu ehwzhhq wkhdlu dqg zdwhu skdvhv dv zhoo dv ehwzhhq wkh dlu dqg wkh dgvruehg skdvh rffxuv dw

;3 Gl�xvlrq ri udgrq lq frqfuhwh

d vkruwhu wlph vfdoh frpsduhg wr rwkhu udgrq0wudqvsruw surfhvvhv1 Iru h{dpsoh/dv dovr lqglfdwhg lq Ilj1 715/ rqh ri wkh vorzhvw surfhvvhv wkdw udgrq xqghujrhv lvgl�xvlrq lq zdwhu wkdw iru wkh vdph frqfhqwudwlrq judglhqw zrxog eh irxu rughuvri pdjqlwxgh vorzhu wkdq gl�xvlrq lq dlu1 Wkxv/ lw dsshduv mxvwl�hg wr frqvlghuwkdw W@� @ W�@ dqg dovr W@r @ Wr@1

Iru sduwlwlrqlqj ehwzhhq dlu dqg zdwhu/ wr uhodwh wkh frqfhqwudwlrq lq wkh wzrskdvhv/ Khqu|*v w|sh ri odz lv xvhg=

F� @ OF@> +7158,

zlwk O wkh Rvwzdog frh�flhqw1 Lwv ydoxh iru zdwhu lv 3159 dw urrp whpshudwxuh+5<6 N,1 Lwv vhqvlwlylw| wr whpshudwxuh ri derxw 3133: N3� lqglfdwhv wkdw wklvydoxh lv udwkhu frqvwdqw iru dpelhqw lqgrru frqglwlrqv1

D olqhdu sursruwlrqdolw| lv dovr xvhg ehwzhhq wkh frqfhqwudwlrqv lq wkh dlu dqgdgvruehg skdvh/ l1h1=

Fr @ n@F@> +7159,

zkhuh n@ +p� nj3�, lv wkh udgrq vxuidfh0dgvruswlrq frh�flhqw1Dgglqj Ht1 7155/ Ht1 7156 dqg Ht1 7157 dqg xvlqj Ht1 7158 dqg Ht1 7159 wr

h{suhvv F� dqg Fr lq whupv ri F@/ rqh rewdlqv wkh pxowl0skdvh wlph0ghshqghqwudgrq0gl�xvlrq htxdwlrq iru wkh dlu0�oohg sduw ri wkh sruh vsdfh=

� _�@_| @ gly +GK judgF@,0��-?F@ . VK> +715:,

zkhuh � lv wkh sduwlwlrq0fruuhfwhg srurvlw|1 Wkh whup �/ lqwurgxfhg e| Dqghuvhq^48`/ lqfrusrudwhv d fruuhfwlrq ri wkh dlu0�oohg sruh vsdfh iru wkh ghjuhh ri zdwhuvdwxudwlrq/ p +vhh Ht1 7143 dqg Ht1 7144, dqg vxuidfh0dgvruswlrq ri udgrq=

� @ %@ .O%� . �Kn@ @ %+4�p. Op, . �Kn@= +715;,

Wkh exon gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw/ GK/ lv lqwhusuhwhg dv kdylqj d frpsrqhqw iru dludqg rqh iru zdwhu/ l1h1=

GK @ %@�G@6 .O%��G

�6> +715<,

dqg VK wkh exon udgrq surgxfwlrq udwh dv gh�qhg e| Ht1 7154 zlwk wkh rqo|gl�huhqfh wkdw khuh wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw/ � lv wkh vxp ri wkh iudfwlrqv rihpdqdwlrq lqwr wkh dlu0/ zdwhu0 dqg vrolg0dgvruehg skdvhv +Ht1 7146,1

718 Frqvrolgdwhg dqg xqfrqvrolgdwhg srurxv phgld ;4

Riwhq wudqvsruw htxdwlrqv duh xvhg lq whupv ri h�hfwlyh sruh vsdfh1 Wkxv/rqh fdq gh�qh wkh h�hfwlyh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw/ Gess dv wkh udwlr ehwzhhqwkh exon gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw dqg wkh sduwlwlrq fruuhfwhg srurvlw|/ l1h1=

Gess @(Kq @ (K

0E�36nu6�n4K&@= +7163,

Dqrwkhu yduldeoh/ riwhq hqfrxqwhuhg lq wkh udgrq olwhudwxuh lv wkh gl�xvlrq ohqjwkri udgrq/ c=

c @t

(Kqb-?

@t

(ess

b-?+7164,

wudglwlrqdoo| lqwhusuhwhg dv wkh dyhudjh fkdudfwhulvwlf glvwdqfh wudyhoohg e| wkhudgrq dwrpv gxulqj rqh kdoi0olih1

Lq whupv ri wkh h�hfwlyh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw/ Ht1 715: pd| eh uhzulwwhq dv=

_�@_| @ gly +Gess judgF@,0�-?F@ . V> +7165,

zlwk V +Etp3� v3�, wkh udgrq0surgxfwlrq udwh shu sduwlwlrq fruuhfwhg sruh yro0xph=

V @ 7Kq = +7166,

e�D �L?tL*�_@|i_ @?_ �?UL?tL*�_@|i_ TLhL�t 4i_�@

Wkh wudqvsruw frh�flhqwv iru wkh fdvh ri �xlg �rz wkurxjk d srurxv phglxpkdyh wr eh fruuhfwhg iru sdudphwhuv wkdw dffrxqw iru wkh vwuxfwxudo surshuwlhvri wkh phglxp1 D fohdu glvwlqfwlrq kdv wr eh pdgh ehwzhhq frqvrolgdwhg dqgxqfrqvrolgdwhg srurxv phgld/ wkh h{klelwhg gl�huhqfhv lq wkhlu pruskrorjlhv eh0lqj hvvhqwldo iru wkh xqghuvwdqglqj ri wkhlu wudqvsruw surshuwlhv1 Xqfrqvrolgdwhgphgld duh exlow xsrq glvfuhwh sduwlfohv wkdw vhwwoh xqghu judylw|1 Xvxdoo| wkhvhduh kljk0srurvlw| sdfnlqjv zlwk d kljk fkdqfh ri shufrodwlrq1 Lq frqvrolgdwhgphgld wkh vrolg sduw irupv d frqwlqxrxv dqg shupdqhqw vwuxfwxuh lq zklfk wkhfrpsrvlqj sduwlfohv kdyh orvw wkhlu lghqwlw|1 Srurvlwlhv lq frqvrolgdwhg phgldkdyh ydoxhv pxfk orzhu wkdq iru wkh fdvh ri judqxodu ehgv dqg sruh wh{wxuhv duhpruh frpsoh{1 Qrw rqo| wkh vl}h/ wkh glvwulexwlrq dqg wkh vkdsh ri wkh sduwl0fohv iruplqj wkh frqvrolgdwhg srurxv phglxp duh ri lpsruwdqfh exw dovr wkh zd|wkh| duh fhphqwhg wrjhwkhu1 D udqgrpo|0sdfnhg ehg lv lvrwurslf zlwk uhvshfw wrwkh wudqvsruw frh�flhqwv exw wkh wudqvsruw frh�flhqwv lq d frqvrolgdwhg srurxvphglxp pd| gl�hu ghshqglqj rq wkh gluhfwlrq ^463`1


Iljxuh 714= 5U�i4@|�U Thiti?|@|�L? Lu k?�_ti? _�g�t�L?�

Exloglqj pdwhuldov duh wkxv h{shfwhg wr kdyh gl�huhqw wudqvsruw surshuwlhvfrpsduhg wr orrvh pdwhuldov olnh/ vdqg1 Iru frqfuhwh/ qrw rqo| kdv lwv srurxvqhwzrun d eurdghu glvwulexwlrq ri sruh0vl}hv wkdq iru xqfrqvrolgdwhg pdwhuldov/exw dovr lwv plfurvwuxfwxuh lv g|qdplfdoo| frxsohg wr wkh hyroxwlrq ri k|gudwlrqdqg wkh dprxqw ri prlvwxuh khog dw d fhuwdlq wlph phdqlqj wkdw wkh vwuxfwxudosdudphwhuv duh dovr wlph ghshqghqw1 Iru h{dpsoh/ zlwk surfhhglqj k|gudwlrq/wkh lqlwldoo| frqqhfwhg qhwzrun ri fdsloodu| sruhv zloo uhdfk d wkuhvkrog zkhuh wkhsruh vsdfh ehfrphv glvfrqwlqxrxv ^7:`1

Wr xqghuvwdqg wudqvsruw surshuwlhv ri frqfuhwh d prgho qhhgv wr eh ghyhorshg+vhh fkdswhu 6, wkdw lqfoxghv wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh dw wkh ohyho ri wkh fhphqw sduwlfohvdqg wkhlu k|gudwlrq surgxfwv +lqfoxglqj wkh sruh vsdfh,1 Wkh jrdo ri wkh suhvhqwlqyhvwljdwlrq lv wr ghyhors d prgho wkdw uhodwhv udgrq wudqvsruw surshuwlhv rifrqfuhwh zlwk wkh hyroxwlrq ri wkh xqghuo|lqj plfurvwuxfwxuh +fkdswhu 9,1 Udgrqlq frqfuhwh zloo eh wudqvsruwhg yld wkh odujh fdsloodulhv dqg wkh jho sruhv rivpdoohu gldphwhuv/ frqqhfwhg wr wkh rshq qhwzrun ^98`1 Lw zdv vxjjhvwhg wkdwwkh wudqvsruw phfkdqlvp lq wkh jho sruhv lv grplqdwhg e| Nqxgvhq gl�xvlrq dvwkh phdq iuhh sdwk ri wudqvsruwhg jdvhv/ �/ kdsshqv wr eh odujhu wkdq wkh sruhudglxv dqg prohfxohv duh pruh suredeoh wr hqfrxqwhu froolvlrqv zlwk wkh zdoov riwkh sruhv wkdq zlwk wkh rwkhu jdv prohfxohv +vhh Ilj1 714,1

Frqvhtxhqwo|/ wkh fruuhvsrqglqj wudqvsruw frh�flhqw ehfrphv ghshqghqw rqwkh udglxv ri wkh sruh/ u +p,1 Wkh Nqxgvhq qxpehu/ N?/ lv qrupdoo| xvhg wrtxdolwdwlyho| ghflgh ^87` zkhwkhu ru qrw wkh gl�xvlrq lv lq wkh Nqxgvhq udqjh=

N? @ o = +7167,

Iru ydoxhv ri N? A 43/ Nqxgvhq gl�xvlrq grplqdwhv zkhuhdv/ iru ydoxhv ri N? ?

3=4> ruglqdu| prohfxodu gl�xvlrq wdnhv sodfh ^49:`1 Iru wkh fdvh ri d f|olqgulfdosruh ri udglxv u/ qhjohfwlqj dgvruswlrq/ wkh nlqhwlf wkhru| jlyhv wkh iroorzlqjh{suhvvlrq iru wkh Nqxgvhq gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw=

Gg @ 2�u y @

e�u

t2&�AZ6 > +7168,


ru/ xvlqj gh�qlwlrq Ht1 7167/ rqh pd| uhodwh wkh prohfxodu dqg wkh Nqxgvhqgl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv e|=

Gg @ 2g?

G6= +7169,

Wkh fruuhvsrqglqj odz ri gl�xvlrq lq wkh Nqxgvhq uhjlph lv vlplodu wr Ilfn *vodz iru d srurxv phglxp=

Mg @ �%g�gGg judg F= +716:,

zkhuh %g lv wkh iudfwlrq ri wkh wrwdo srurvlw| zkhuh Nqxgvhq gl�xvlrq grplqdwhvdqg �g wkh uhodwhg wruwxrvlw|1

Iru d fhuwdlq udqjh ri sruh vl}hv xvxdoo| uhihuuhg wr lq olwhudwxuh dv wkhwudqvlwlrq uhjlrq/ erwk prohfxodu dqg Nqxgvhq gl�xvlrq frqwulexwh wr wudqv0sruw +3=4 ? N? ? 43,1 Rq dq hpslulfdo edvlv dqg xvlqj dq dqdorj| zlwk wkhcfrqgxfwlylw|* ri d sruh/ Ervdqtxhw +flwhg lq ^49:`, vxjjhvwhg wkdw wkh gl�xvlrqfrh�flhqw lq wkh wudqvlwlrq uhjlrq/ G|> fdq eh wr d jrrg dssur{lpdwlrq gh�qhge|=

�(|

@ �(6

. �(g@

(6n(g

(6(g= +716;,

Ht1 716; fruuhvsrqgv wr d cvhuldo* ehkdylrxu ri wkh wzr gl�xvlylwlhv= prohfxodu+Ht1 716, dqg Nqxgvhq +Ht1 7168,21

Udgrq dwrpv kdyh d gldphwhu �6 @ 3=5:qp wkxv/ iru vwdqgdug whpshudwxuhdqg suhvvxuh frqglwlrqv/ wkhlu phdq iuhh sdwk lq dlu/ dv hvwlpdwhg iurp Ht1 717/ lv4158�433. p1 Iljxuh 715 suhvhqwv ydoxhv iru wkh Nqxgvhq qxpehu iru wkh sruh gr0pdlq hqfrxqwhuhg lq frqfuhwh dv lqglfdwhg e| Pdhndzd hw do1 ^:4`1 Wkh �jxuh dovrolvwv wkh udgrq gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw fdofxodwhg +Ht1 716;, iru wkh fdvh ri gl�xvlrq lqdlu dqg zdwhu/ frqvlghulqj wkdw wkh fruuhvsrqglqj prohfxodu gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwvduh G@�o

6c-? @414�433Dp2 v3� dqg G�@|eo

6c-? @415�433bp2 v3�/ uhvshfwlyho|1Wkh wudqvlwlrq gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv iru sruhv zlwk vpdoo udgll kdv ydoxhv ri

wkh vdph rughu dv wkh Nqxgvhq gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv zkloh/ rq wkh frqwudu|/ iruodujh sruhv lw dssurdfkhv wkh ydoxh ri wkh prohfxodu gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv1 Lq wkh

2�t ��_ �L�c _�g�t�L? @?_ i*iU|h�U@* UL?_�U|��|) |@!i T*@Ui �? |�i t@4i �?|ihUL??iU|i_?i|�Lh! Lu TLhitc Lu|i? |�i 4i|�L_t i4T*L)i_ |L LM|@�? �?uLh4@|�L? L�ih |�i }iL4i|h) Lu |�iTLhL�t 4i_��4 �t ��@ UL?_�U|��|) 4i@t�hi4i?|t Lu @? i*iU|h�U@**) UL?_�U|�?} *�^��_ �**�?} |�iTLhit� �@?) |�iLhi|�U@* hi*@|�L?t |h) |L UL??iU| UL?_�U|��|) @?_ _�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?|t uLh TLhL�ttL*�_t E d��oc d��oc d�eoc d�2.oc d�Seo�� A��t �t ThLM@M*) @*tL |�i Lh�}�? Lu @ tih�@* Mi�@��L�h Lu |�i_�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?|t�


rpore (m)10-10 10-9 10-8 10-7 10-6 10-5 10-4

Dt (

m2 s-1

)

10-12

10-11

10-10

10-9

10-8

10-7

10-6

10-5

air phasewater phase

gel capillary

Knudsen transition molecular

Iljxuh 715= #�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?|tc G| Ep2 v3�� uLh @ h@?}i Lu TLhi t�3it Ep� i?UL�?|ihi_ �?

UL?Uhi|i�

wudqvlwlrqdo uhjlrq +3138�413�p, wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw fkdqjhv zlwk d idfwruri 51 Nqxgvhq gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv iru erwk dlu dqg zdwhu duh wzr wr wkuhh rughuvri pdjqlwxgh vpdoohu wkdq wkh prohfxodu gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv1

Wkxv/ iru frqfuhwh/ Nqxgvhq gl�xvlrq lv wkh grplqdwlqj phfkdqlvp lq jhosruhv +318�43qp,/ prohfxodu gl�xvlrq lq fdsloodu| sruhv +8�433 �p, dqg d frp0elqdwlrq ri erwkphfkdqlvpv fruuhvsrqgv wr wkh wudqvlwlrq grpdlq +3138�413�p,1Dv jho dqg fdsloodu| sruhv duh udqgrpo| glvwulexwhg dqg frqqhfwhg lq wkh srurxvqhwzrun/ wkh ryhudoo gl�xvlrq phfkdqlvp kdv wr eh uhjdughg dv d frpelqdwlrq riNqxgvhq dqg prohfxodu gl�xvlrq1 Ht1 715< krogv li rqo| prohfxodu gl�xvlrq lvfrqvlghuhg1 D vlplodu htxdwlrq fdq eh zulwwhq iru wkh sxuh Nqxgvhq grpdlq e|vlpso| uhsodflqj wkh prohfxodu gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv e| wkh fruuhvsrqglqj Nqxg0vhq gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv=

GgK @ %@�G

@g .O%��G

�g = +716<,

Vlploduo|/ iru wkh wudqvlwlrq uhjlph krogv=

G|K @ %@�G

|c@K .O%��G

|c�K @ %@�

(@g(

@6

(@gn(@

6.O%��

(�g(

�6

(�gn(�

6= +7173,


Dv fdq eh vhhq iurp Iljxuh 715/ wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq zdwhu lv irxu rughuv ripdjqlwxgh vpdoohu wkdq lq dlu/ lqghshqghqwo| ri wkh gl�xvlrq grpdlq> wkh udwlrehwzhhq wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv lq dlu dqg zdwhu lv d frqvwdqw +4=4 �433e,1

�

w�|ih@|�hi �?uLh4@|�L?

D�� W?|hL_�U|�L?

Wkh dlp ri wklv wkhvlv lv wr lpsuryh wkh edvlf nqrzohgjh rq udgrq surgxfwlrq dqgwudqvsruw lq frqfuhwh wr uhgxfh lwv udgrq uhohdvh +vhh vhfwlrq 415,1

Wkhuh duh wzr reylrxv zd|v wr uhgxfh udgrq uhohdvh iurp exloglqj pdwhuldov=

� dw d plfurvfrslf vfdoh/ e| lqklelwlqj udgrq uhohdvh dqg wudqvsruw wr wkhvxuidfh> dqg2ru

� dw d pdfurvfrslf vfdoh/ e| fryhulqj wkh vxuidfh ri wkh pdwhuldo zlwk dudgrq0wljkw phpeudqh1

Erwk whfkqltxhv kdyh ehhq h{whqvlyho| lqyhvwljdwhg suhylrxvo| dqg d olwhudwxuhvxuyh| rq wkh dydlodeoh gdwd dlpv wr hdvh dqg jxlgh wkh uhdghu wr wkh suhvhqwuhvhdufk1

Hdfk exloglqj pdwhuldo kdv d ydoxh2udqjh fkdudfwhulvwlf iru udgrq0uhohdvh rqedvlv ri zklfk d fodvvl�fdwlrq pd| eh pdgh1 Zh zloo vhh wkdw frqfuhwh uhsuhvhqwvrqh ri wkh prvw lpsruwdqw vrxufhv ri udgrq lq Gxwfk gzhoolqjv dqg/ wr h{sodlq wkh

;:

;; Olwhudwxuh lqirupdwlrq

odujh yduldwlrqv lq udgrq0uhohdvh ri frqfuhwh/ fruuhodwlrqv zlwk ydulrxv pdwhuldo/wudqvsruw dqg hqylurqphqwdo sdudphwhuv duh vrxjkw1 Wkh ydoxhv ri udgrq uhohdvhri frqfuhwh duh dovr ghshqghqw rq wkh udglrphwulf surshuwlhv +udglxp0dfwlylw|frqfhqwudwlrqv, ri lwv frpsrqhqwv1 Wkh dgglwlrq ri e|0surgxfwv +olnh �|0dvk dqgeodvwixuqdfh vodj, iurp ydulrxv lqgxvwuldo surfhvvhv riwhq pd| ohdg wr lqfuhdvhgudgrq0uhohdvh udwhv iurp frqfuhwh1 Lq vhfwlrq 815 wkh ghshqghqfh ri udgrq uhohdvhrq wkh udglxp0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrq dqg wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw ri wkh pdwh0uldo> rq wkh pl{wxuh ghvljq/ fxulqj/ kxplglw|/ whpshudwxuh frqglwlrqlqj dqg djhzloo eh glvfxvvhg1

Lqyhvwljdwlrqv uhodwhg wr vxuidfh fryhulqj irfxv rq wkh ghwhuplqdwlrq ri udgrq0uhgxfwlrq idfwruv fkdudfwhulvwlf wr ydulrxv phpeudqhv/ frdwlqjv dqg vhdodqwv zkhqdssolhg wr frqfuhwh dqg2ru wkh udgrq0shuphdelolw| ri d fhuwdlq fryhu1 Wkh h�0flhqf| lq uhgxflqj udgrq uhohdvh lv gluhfwo| uhodwhg wr wkh udgrq shuphdelolw| riwkh eduulhu frdwlqj1 Vxuidfh fryhulqj lv wkh prvw zlgho| xvhg whfkqltxh wr uh0gxfh udgrq uhohdvh iurp exloglqj pdwhuldov1 Vhfwlrq 816 suhvhqwv dqg glvfxvvhvwkh ydoxhv ri udgrq h�flhqf| dqg udgrq shuphdelolw| ghwhuplqhg iru ydulrxvudgrq eduulhuv zkhq dssolhg rq frqfuhwh> vrph hqylurqphqwdo idfwruv pd| dowhuwkh udgrq0uhgxfwlrq h�flhqf|1 Rq edvlv ri wkhvh uhvxowv/ d vhohfwlrq ri fryhulqjpdwhuldov whvwhg lq wkh suhvhqw uhvhdufk lv pdgh1

Rqfh wkh phfkdqlvp ri udgrq wudqvsruw wkurxjk frqfuhwh ru wkurxjk d eduulhupdwhuldo lv xqghuvwrrg/ phwkrgv iru uhgxflqj wkh uhohdvh ri udgrq fdq eh surshuo|ghvljqhg1

D�2 W?uLh4@|�L? L? h@_L? hi*i@ti

Wkh ydoxhv udgrq0h{kdodwlrq udwhv shu xqlw ri pdvv ru vxuidfh +H6 dqg Hr/ uh0vshfwlyho|, iurp vdpsohv ru vodev ri exloglqj pdwhuldov +Wdeoh 814, vkrz wkdw irud fhuwdlq pdwhuldo wkh udqjh ri ydoxhv lv txlwh odujh1 Wkh odujhvw yduldwlrq lq H6

lv irxqg iru frqfuhwh1 Ehvlghv skrvskrj|svxp/ frqfuhwh dovr h{kdohv +Hr, wkhodujhvw dprxqw ri udgrq1 Rq wkh frqwudu|/ vpdoo ydoxhv ri Hr duh fkdudfwhulvwlfiru dhudwhg frqfuhwh dqg j|svxp1 Txdqwlwlhv wkdw d�hfw wkh udgrq h{kdodwlrq rifrqfuhwh duh= udglxp frqwhqw/ hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw dqg lwv frpsrvlwlrq/ fxulqjdqg klvwru|/ lq sduwlfxodu kxplglw| dqg whpshudwxuh frqglwlrqlqj/ dqg djh1 Wkhlq�xhqfhv ri hdfk ri wkhvh idfwruv zloo eh glvfxvvhg vhsdudwho|1

815 Lqirupdwlrq rq udgrq uhohdvh ;<

Wdeoh 814= +@_L? hi*i@ti h@|i L? M@t�t Lu 4@tt @?_ t�hu@Ui @hi@ uhL4 t@4T*it Lh �@**t%t*@Mt

Lu M��*_�?} 4@|ih�@*t�

Pdwhuldo H6 Hr

0 �Etnj3� v3� pEtp32 v3�

Frqfuhwh 417054+ ^474`/ ^48:`, 3138�915 + ^73`/ ^76`/ ^<8`,Dhudwhg frqfuhwh 0 314503184 + ^76`/ ^48:`,Vdqg| olphvwrqh 0 31680613 ^76`

Eulfn 31<7�49 + ^48:`/ ^474`, 31336�51< + ^73`/ ^48:`,J|svxp 515�916< ^48:` 31339�31:< + ^76`/ ^48:`,

Skrvskrj|svxp 491: ^48:` 3139054 + ^48:`/ ^73`,

D�2�� +@_��4 UL?Ui?|h@|�L? @?_ i4@?@|�L? ULi�U�i?|

Lq vhyhudo vwxglhv wkh udglrphwulf surshuwlhv +udglxp0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv/ F-@dqg udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv/ H6 ru Hr, ri ydulrxv w|shv ri fhphqwv dqg frqfuhwhfrpsrqhqwv kdyh ehhq lqyhvwljdwhg +Wdeoh 815,1 Eodvwixuqdfh vodj +jjev, zdvirxqg wr kdyh wkh prvw hohydwhg udglxp0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrq1 Krzhyhu/ qrlqirupdwlrq rq lwv udgrq0uhohdvh udwh zdv dydlodeoh1 D frpelqdwlrq ri kljk ydoxhv

Wdeoh 815= 22S+@ @U|��|) UL?Ui?|h@|�L?t EF-@� @?_222+? i �@*@|�L? h@|it EH6>Hr� uLh

UL?Uhi|i UL4TL?i?|t E�@*�it �?_�U@|i_ M) W @hi �? 4Etp32 v3��Frpsrqhqw F-@ H6

0 Et nj3� �Et nj3� v3�

Fhphqwv + ^<4`/ ^73`/ ^<6`, 5:+4408<, +318031<,W

Sruwodqg + ^466`/ ^44`, 5<+4307<, 0Io| dvk + ^:7`/ ^<8`, <8 433

Eodvwixuqdfh vodj ^:7` 453 0Eodvwixuqdfh fhphqw ^44` ;5+7<0449, 0vdqg A 3=458 pp ^6:` 460:; +;1;314,

fod| dqg vlon? 3=396 pp ^6:` �4:3 +6;183136,judyho + ^73`/ ^493`, ::+430463, +314041<,W

ri F-@ dqg H6 rffxuv iru �| dvk1 D odujh udqjh lq F-@ dqg Hr ydoxhv zdvphdvxuhg iru vdqg/ judyho dqg ydulrxv fhphqw w|shv1

Phdvxuhphqwv ri F-@ ri ydulrxv frqfuhwh frpsrqhqwv ^474` lqglfdwh wkh kljk0hvw ydoxhv iru judqlwh fkls dqg �| dvk +4;363 Et nj3� dqg 49363 Et nj3�/

<3 Olwhudwxuh lqirupdwlrq

uhvshfwlyho|,1 F-@ ydoxhv ri wkh djjuhjdwhv zhuh dovr irxqg lq wkh vdph udqjh+:3 wr 533 Et nj3�,1 Derxw irxu rughuv ri pdjqlwxgh orzhu duh wkh F-@ ydoxhvri fhphqw/ ulyhu vdqg/ j|svxp dqg olph1 Wkh vpdoohvw ydoxhv ri F-@ zhuh irxqgiru vhd vdqg dqg olphvwrqh +60: Et nj3�,1

Lq d vwxg| e| Wvr hw do1 ^474` d frpsdulvrq ri F-@/ udgrq0hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw+�, dqg H6 ri frqfuhwh iurp vhyhudo frxqwulhv zdv pdgh1 F-@0ydoxhv ri frqfuhwh+zlwkrxw �|0dvk, duh w|slfdoo| lq wkh udqjh 430433 Et nj3�dqg hpdqdwlrq idfwruvduh uhsruwhg lq d zlgh udqjh +�= 4063(,1 Wkhuh lv qr gluhfw fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhqhohydwhg udglxp frqfhqwudwlrqv dqg kljkhvw ydoxhv ri wkh udgrq0h{kdodwlrq udwh/exw d frpelqdwlrq ri kljk ydoxhv ri erwk F-@ dqg � grhv/ ri frxuvh/ uhvxow lqlqfuhdvhg ydoxhv ri H61

Lqyhvwljdwlrqv ^446` rq wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqwv ri ydulrxv w|shv ri fhphqwvvkrz wkdw/ jlyhq d fhuwdlq orvv ri zdwhu/ frqfuhwhv ideulfdwhg zlwk jjev h{klelw wkhorzhvw ydoxhv1 Wklv ehkdylrxu frxog eh h{sodlqhg e| wkh idfw wkdw jjev frqfuhwhvirup vpdoohu fdsloodu| sruhv frpsduhg wr sxuh Sruwodqg fhphqw frqfuhwhv1 Wklvuhvxow lv qrw lq djuhhphqw zlwk wkh �qglqjv e| Ydq Glmn dqg Gh Mrqj ^48:`zkr vkrzhg wkdw wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqwv ri frqfuhwh zlwk Sruwodqg fhphqw/eodvwixuqdfh fhphqw dqg sduwo| �|0dvk uhsodfhg Sruwodqg fhphqw duh htxdo1

Idlvfd ^73` frqfoxghv wkdw d olqhdu fruuhodwlrq ehwzhhq F-@ dqg Hr h{lvwv iruexloglqj pdwhuldov olnh frqfuhwh/ eulfn dqg j|svxp dqg dovr iru frpsrqhqwv olnhjudyho dqg vdqg1 Iru h{dpsoh/ iru frqfuhwh wkh iroorzlqj irupxod lv sursrvhg +Hr

lq pEtp32 v3�/ F-@ lq Etnj3�,=

Hr @ 3=366F-@ � 3=375= +814,

Krzhyhu/ wkh vdph w|sh ri fruuhodwlrq zdv qrw irxqg iru fhphqw1Iru prvw qdwxudo ru pdq0pdgh pdwhuldov/ d ghshqghqfh ri wkh 22SUd/ 2�2Wk

dqg efN dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv rq sduwlfoh vl}h kdv ehhq irxqg +Wdeoh 816,1 Zlwkghfuhdvlqj judlq vl}h dovr wkh judlq vxuidfh shu xqlw yroxph lqfuhdvhv dqg odujhudprxqwv ri udglrqxfolghv duh dgvruehg wr wkh vxuidfh ri wkh judlq ohdglqj wr dqlqfuhdvh lq wkh udglrqxfolghv0frqfhqwudwlrqv1 Krzhyhu/ vxfk h�hfwv duh nqrzq qrwwr eh suhvhqw lq jurxqg pdwhuldov vxfk dv jjev +Wdeoh 816,1

Lq frqfoxvlrq/ wkh odujh yduldwlrqv uhsruwhg iru F-@0ydoxhv ri frqfuhwh frp0srqhqwv fdq eh dvvrfldwhg wr wkh odujh yduldwlrq lq wkh udgrq h{kdodwlrq udwhvshu xqlw ri pdvv +H6, ru shu xqlw ri vxuidfh +Hr,1 Wkh ghqvhqhvv ri wkh sruhvsdfh lq frqfuhwh ghshqgv rq wkh ydulrxv w|shv ri fhphqwv xvhg lq wkh pl{ dqgdovr uhodwhv wr wkh udgrq hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw +�,1 D frpelqdwlrq ri kljk ydoxhvri erwk F-@ dqg � zloo prvw suredeo| ohdg wr kljk udgrq h{kdodwlrq udwhv1 Iru

815 Lqirupdwlrq rq udgrq uhohdvh <4

Wdeoh 816= �U|��|) UL?Ui?|h@|�L?t Lu t�3i_ uh@U|�L?t Lu �@h�L�t 4@|ih�@*t�

Vdpsoh Iudfwlrq Dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv +Et nj3�,0 pp 22SUd 2�2Wk efN

Wloo ^6:` A31458 664 674 433595?31396 4447 4597 <4393

Vdqg ^6:` A4 664 654 44639;A31458 664 754 ;437<?31396 49:; 56:: 9<374

Fod| A31483 ^:7` <3 4<3 663?31396 ^6:` 4348 :<5 43<398?31386 ^:7` 463 5:3 743

Skrvskrj|svxp ^:7` A31483 5:8 7 0?31386 ;83 43 0

Io| dvk ^:7` A31483 98 <8 933

?31386 448 493 963Eodvwixuqdfh vodj ^:7` A31483 453 46616 463

?31386 453 463 463

vlplodu frqfuhwh +l1h1 pdqxidfwxulqj uhflsh dqg fxulqj, d gluhfw uhodwlrq ehwzhhqF-@0ydoxhv dqg Hr pd| h{lvw1

D�2�2 �i4i?| |)Tic �@|ih�Ui4i?| h@|�L @?_ U�h�?} |�4i

Ydq Glmn dqg Gh Mrqj ^48:` phdvxuhg Hr iru gl�huhqw nlqgv ri frqfuhwh lq zklfkhdfk ri wkh iudfwlrqv ri wkh frpsrqhqwv zdv nhsw frqvwdqw dqg rqo| wkh fhphqww|sh zdv ydulhg1 Wkh vdpsoh frqwdlqlqj eodvw0ixuqdfh fhphqw kdg wkh kljkhvw ydo0xhv ri F-@ +481;414 Et nj3�, dqg Hr +4136313; pEtp32 v3�,1 Wkh frqfuhwhfrqwdlqlqj Sruwodqg fhphqw dqg �| dvk kdg d kljkhu udglxp dfwlylw| frqfhqwud0wlrq wkdq wkh frqfuhwh vdpsoh lqfrusrudwlqj Sruwodqg fhphqw rqo|/ erwk vdpsohvkdyh frpsdudeoh Hr0ydoxhv1

Urhoriv dqg Vfkrowhq ^446` rewdlqhg vlplodu uhvxowv1 Wkh ydoxhv ri H6 riruglqdu| Sruwodqg fhphqw frqfuhwh +60: �Et nj3� v3�, zhuh phdvxuhg wr eh orzhuwkdq wkrvh ri jjev frqfuhwh +:045 �Et nj3� v3�,> d gl�huhqfh lq djuhhphqw zlwkwkh udglxp frqwhqwv1 Krzhyhu/ zlwk wkh lqfrusrudwlrq ri �|0dvk/ H6 ri erwk/ruglqdu| Sruwodqg fhphqw dqg jjev vdpsohv ghfuhdvhg e| 59(/ dowkrxjk F-@0ydoxhv lq jhqhudo lqfuhdvhv1


Wkh lq�xhqfh ri wkh zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr +dqg wkxv/ fruuhvsrqglqj fdsloodu|srurvlw|, lq wkh fhphqw sdvwh dqg ri wkh fxulqj frqglwlrqv rq wkh udgrq h{kdodwlrqiurp frqfuhwh zhuh vwxglhg e| Xoedn hw do1 ^475`1 Iru erwk frqfuhwh zlwk dqgzlwkrxw �|0dvk qr vljql�fdqw fkdqjh lq wkh udgrq h{kdodwlrq kdv ehhq revhuyhgiru d udqjh ri zdwhu0fhphqw udwlrv +315�413, dqg ydulrxv fxulqj frqglwlrqv1

Lq dqrwkhu vwxg| frqgxfwhg e| Urhoriv dqg Vfkrowhq ^446` erwk H6 dqg � rijjev frqfuhwh zhuh irxqg wr lqfuhdvh e| d idfwru ri 517 zlwk lqfuhdvlqj zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr +31703198,1 Dowkrxjk dw orz zdwhu0fhphqw udwlrv/ d ghfuhdvh ri H6

zlwk lqfuhdvlqj fxulqj wlph lv h{shfwhg/ qr vljql�fdqw gl�huhqfhv zhuh phdvxuhgiru d fxulqj wlph ri 3/ 6 dqg 5; gd|v/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Dovr uhsodflqj wkh ulyhu0judyhodjjuhjdwhv e| olphvwrqh ru vhd0judyho kdg qr lq�xhqfh rq wkh H61 Uhsodfhphqwri wkh djjuhjdwhv e| uhf|fohg pdvrqu| dqg frqfuhwh judqxodwhv uhvxowhg lq dqlqfuhdvh ri H6 e| d idfwru ri 4181

Vxppdulvlqj/ frqfuhwh frqwdlqlqj jjev fhphqw zdv lq vhyhudo rffdvlrqv irxqgwr kdyh wkh kljkhvw ydoxhv ri F-@ dqg Hr/ suredeo| uhodwhg wr wkh idfw wkdw jjevfhphqw kdv wkh kljkhvw F-@0ydoxhv +Wdeoh 815,1 Lq jhqhudo/ dgglwlrq ri �|0dvk+dovr zlwk ydoxhv lq wkh xsshu udqjh ri F-@ iru fhphqwv, lqfuhdvhv wkh F-@0ydoxhvri frqfuhwh exw ghfuhdvhv wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv e| lqfuhdvlqj wkh frpsdfwqhvvri frqfuhwh*v plfurvwuxfwxuh1 Lq jhqhudo udgrq h{kdodwlrqv iurp frqfuhwh vhhp wreh lqghshqghqw ri wkh fxulqj wlph exw e| lqfuhdvlqj wkh zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr riwkh pl{/ lqfuhdvhg ydoxhv ri H6 dqg � zhuh phdvxuhg1

D�2�� O�4�_�|) @?_ |i4Tih@|�hi UL?_�|�L?�?}

Udgrq uhohdvh udwhv kdyh ehhq uhsruwhg wr ghshqg rq wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw lq wkholwhudwxuh iru frqfuhwh/ vkdoh/ vrlo/ hwf1 + ^46:`/ ^74`,1 Wkh sursrvhg h{sodqdwlrqlv edvhg rq wzr rssrvlwh h�hfwv1 Wkh suhvhqfh ri zdwhu lq wkh lqwhuqdo sruhvglplqlvkhv wkh uhfrlo hqhuj| ri wkh hpdqdwlqj udgrq dwrpv dqg wkhuhe| uhgxfhwkh dgvruswlrq ri udgrq rq lqwhuqdo vxuidfhv1 Wklv h�hfw lqfuhdvhv wkh dprxqw riudgrq dydlodeoh iru gl�xvlrq1 Wkh rwkhu h�hfw uhgxfhv wkh udgrq uhohdvh ehfdxvh/zkhq wkh sruhv duh frpsohwho| vdwxudwhg zlwk zdwhu wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw riudgrq gursv wzr rughuv ri pdjqlwxgh uhodwlyh wr dlu �oohg sruhv1 Zklfk h�hfwgrplqdwhv dw zkdw prlvwxuh frqwhqw/ gl�huv iurp rqh pdwhuldo wr wkh rwkhu1

Ydq Glmn dqg Gh Mrqj ^48:` irxqg iru frqfuhwh d olqhdu ghfuhdvh ri Hr zlwklqfuhdvlqj zdwhu0ydsrxu suhvvxuh1 Rq wkh frqwudu|/ j|svxp vkrzhg dq lqfuhdvhlq Hr zlwk lqfuhdvlqj zdwhu0ydsrxu suhvvxuh1 Wklv rssrvlwh ehkdylrxu pd| ehuhodwhg wr wkh eurdghu sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq ri frqfuhwh1

H60ydoxhv iru ruglqdu| Sruwodqg fhphqw frqfuhwh zhuh phdvxuhg ryhu d wlph

815 Lqirupdwlrq rq udgrq uhohdvh <6

shulrg ri ; |hduv dw ydulrxv uhodwlyh kxplglwlhv ^446`1 Wkh lqlwldo fkdqjhv lq wkh H6

ri iuhvk frqfuhwh duh uhodwhg wr wkh lqwhuqdo prlvwxuh fkdqjhv zkloh odwhu rq d fohdughshqghqfh rq wkh hqylurqphqwdo kxplglw| frqglwlrqv lv revhuyhg1 Orz kxplglw|frqglwlrqv gudpdwlfdoo| uhgxfh H6 ri frqfuhwh1 Lqgrru frqglwlrqhg frqfuhwhvvkrz vlplodu ydoxhv zlwk frqfuhwh frqglwlrqhg dw 83( UK1 Iru kxplglwlhv jrlqj xsiurp 83( wr :8(H6 lqfuhdvhv> dw d ohyho ri :80433( UK vdwxudwlrq lv uhdfkhg/ wkhydoxhv ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv dw 433( kxplglw| duh frpsdudeoh zlwk wkrvh iruwkh :8( frqglwlrqlqj1 Wkh uhvxowv duh lq djuhhphqw zlwk wkh gdwd iurp Vwudqghqhw do1 ^46:` iru frqfuhwh dqg dovr ri Iohlvfkhu ^74` iru vrlo1 Iru frpsdulvrq/ iru vrlowkh kljkhvw udgrq h{kdodwlrq lv douhdg| uhdfkhg dw 58( UK dqg dw 44( UK iruvkdoh ^74`1

Wkh h�hfw ri prlvwxuh frqwhqw rq H6 iurp frqfuhwh vdpsohv zdv lqyhvwljdwhge| Vwudqghq hw do1 ^46:`1 Wkh phdvxuhphqwv vwduwhg zlwk d zhw fxeh +nhsw xqghuzdwhu xs wr <3krxuv,1 E| jhqwo| khdwlqj +dw :3�F0533�F,/ wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqwzdv uhgxfhg lq vwhsv xqwlo lw zdv ixoo| gulhg dw 533�F iru <3 krxuv1 Dw hdfkvwhs H6 zdv phdvxuhg1 Wkh uhvxowv zhuh sorwwhg yhuvxv wkh zdwhu shufhqwdjhri wkh vdpsoh1 Wkh pd{lpxp gl�huhqfh +53 wlphv kljkhu, zlwk uhihuhqfh wr wkhfrpsohwho| gu| vdpsoh rffxuuhg dw d zdwhu frqwhqw ri 8(1 Wkh fruuhvsrqglqjydoxh ri H6 zdv 741: �Etnj3� v3�1 Wkh zlgwk ri wkh shdn rffxuuhg iru prlvwxuhfrqwhqwv ri 6 wr 9( e| pdvv1 H6 lq wkh udqjh ri 3 wr 6( zdwhu frqwhqw zhuh 6 wr9 wlphv kljkhu wkdq wkh uhihuhqfh gu|0vwdwh ydoxh1 Wkh suhvhqfh ri wkh shdn lq wkhydoxhv ri H6 lqglfdwhv wkdw xs wr d fhuwdlq prlvwxuh frqwhqw wkhuh lv dq lqfuhdvlqjhpdqdwlrq wkdw grplqdwhv udgrq uhohdvh dqg/ diwhu dq rswlpxp lq prlvwxuh/ wkhuhgxfhg gl�xvlrq zloo jryhuq ^473`1

Wkh vdph vwxg| ^46:` dovr lqyhvwljdwhg wkh h�hfw ri whpshudwxuh rq H61 Do0wkrxjk wkh h�hfw zdv vkrzq wr eh ghshqghqw rq wkh lqlwldo prlvwxuh frqwhqw rifrqfuhwh/ wkh ydoxhv ri H6 lqfuhdvhg zlwk lqfuhdvlqj whpshudwxuh= dw 83�F wkhydoxhv duh rq wkh dyhudjh 718 odujhu wkdq dw 7�F1

Wr dvvhvv wkh h�hfw ri vhdvrqdo kxplglw| rq Hr iru frqfuhwh/ \dpdqlvkl hw

do1 ^498` phdvxuhg gxulqj rqh |hdu Hr ri wkuhh/ lqlwldoo| gu|/ frqfuhwh vdpsohvsodfhg lq hqylurqphqwv zlwk gl�huhqw kxplglwlhv/ l1h1 gu|/ orz kxplglw| +73( UK,dqg kljk kxplglw| +<3( UK,1 Zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh gu| vwdwh/ wkh zdwhu frqwhqwvri frqfuhwh +e| pdvv, duh lqfuhdvhg xs wr 517( lq wkh kljk kxplglw| hqylurq0phqw dqg xs wr 31;;( lq wkh orz kxplglw| hqylurqphqw1 Xqghu orz kxplglw|frqglwlrqv/ d cvdwxudwhg* ydoxh iru Hr zdv dfklhyhg diwhu ;3 gd|v1 Kljk kxplglw|frqglwlrqv uhtxluh d shulrg ri 4;3 gd|v wr uhdfk d sodwhdx iru wkh ydoxhv ri Hr1Wkh vdwxudwlrq ydoxhv lq wkh kljk dqg orz kxplglw| uhjlph duh 3176 pEtp32 v3�


dqg 3146 pEtp32 v3� uhvshfwlyho|1 Rqfh wkh vdwxudwlrq ydoxh lv dfklhyhg/ wkh�xfwxdwlrqv lq wkh Hr ydoxhv fruuhvsrqg wr vlplodu �xfwxdwlrqv ri wkh zdwhu frq0whqw1

Lq frqfoxvlrq/ hqylurqphqwdo uhodwlyh kxplglw| frqglwlrqv lq�xhqfh wkh dprxqwri prlvwxuh frqwdlqhg e| frqfuhwh dqg wkxv/ wkh ydoxh phdvxuhg iru wkh udgrquhohdvh1 Wr dyrlg xqfhuwdlqwlhv lq wkh uhsruwhg h{kdodwlrq udwhv gxh wr xqnqrzqprlvwxuh frqwhqw/ phdvxuhphqwv rxjkw wr eh fduulhg rxw dw d �{hg uhodwlyh kx0plglw| wkdw vkrxog eh uhsruwhg wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh phdvxuhg ydoxhv1

D vpdoohu exw vwloo qrw qhjoljleoh h�hfw kdv lqwurgxfhg wkh whpshudwxuh ri dqhqylurqphqw1 D vwdqgduglvhg phwkrg wr phdvxuh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri frqfuhwhxqghu zhoo0hvwdeolvkhg whpshudwxuh dqg uhodwlyh kxplglw| frqglwlrqv lv wkhuhiruhghvluhg1

D�2�e �}i

Urhoriv dqg Vfkrowhq ^446` phdvxuhg H6 ri irxu frqfuhwh vdpsohv ri ydulrxv frp0srvlwlrqv +gl�huhqw fhphqw w|sh/ fhphqw0djjuhjdwh iudfwlrqv dqg zdwhu fhphqwudwlrv,/ frqglwlrqhg dw 83(UK/ ryhu d wlph shulrg ri ; |hduv1 Wkh uhfrughgwuhqgv zhuh vlplodu iru doo irxu vdpsohv= dq lqfuhdvh e| d idfwru ri 418 ryhu wkh�uvw 9045prqwkv iroorzhg e| d ghfuhdvh diwhuzdugv1

Lq 4<<9 Ydq Glmn dqg Gh Mrqj ^48;` uhphdvxuhg wkh F-@/ � dqg Hr ri wkuhhvdpsohv ri frqfuhwh zlwk Sruwodqg fhphqw/ eodvwixuqdfh fhphqw dqg sduwo| �|0dvkuhsodfhg Sruwodqg fhphqw dqg frpsduhg wkh ydoxhv zlwk wkh uhvxowv ri wkh 4<<4vwxg| ^48:`1 Wkh F-@ djuhhg zhoo iru doo wkuhh vdpsohv1 Iru wkh eodvwixuqdfh vodjvdpsoh/ wkh � dqg Hr dovr djuhh1 Krzhyhu/ iru wkh vdpsohv frqwdlqlqj ruglqdu|Sruwodqg fhphqw ru �|0dvk Hr dqg � lqfuhdvhg e| derxw d idfwru ri wzr frpsduhgwr wkh ydoxhv rewdlqhg lq 4<<41 Dv wkh udglxp frqfhqwudwlrqv djuhh zhoo irudoo vdpsoh w|shv dqg wkh gl�huhqfhv lq vdpsoh frpsrvlwlrq dqg fxulqj frqglwlrqvfdq qrw h{sodlq wklv idfwru ri wzr/ wkh dxwkruv dvvxph wkdw d srvvleoh h{sodqdwlrquhodwhv wr wkh djh ri wkh whvw vdpsohv dw wkh wlph ri phdvxuhphqw +90:prqwkv lqwklv vwxg| frpsduhg wr 7 |hduv lq wkh suhylrxv rqh,1

Udgrq h{kdodwlrq iurp exloglqj vxuidfhv zdv fohduo| vkrzq wr ghfuhdvh zlwkwlph/ iurp 43 pEtp32 v3�iru ohvv wkdq �yh |hduv rog frqfuhwh wr 5 pEtp32 v3�

iru frqfuhwh ryhu 53 |hduv rog ^49<`1 Dv wkhuh lv hylghqfh wkdw wkh udglxp frqwhqwri wkh zdoov glg qrw fkdqjh/ wkh ghfuhdvh lv olnho| fdxvhg e| djh h�hfwv/ vxfk dvuhgxfwlrq lq zdwhu frqwhqw1

Lq frqfoxvlrq/ udgrq uhohdvh lv d frpelqdwlrq ri wzr surfhvvhv1 Wkh �uvw

816 Lqirupdwlrq rq udgrq eduulhuv <8

surfhvv lv wkh surgxfwlrq ri udgrq zklfk ghshqgv vwurqjo| rq wkh udglxp0dfwlylw|frqfhqwudwlrq dqg wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw ri wkh pdwhuldo dqg wkh fkrlfh rifhphqw lq wkh frqfuhwh pl{1 Wkh vhfrqg surfhvv lv wkh wudqvsruw ri udgrq wkurxjkwkh plfurvwuxfwxuh ri wkh pdwhuldo zlwk dv prvw lpsruwdqw idfwruv wkh prlvwxuhfrqwhqw dqg uhodwlyh kxplglw| frqglwlrqlqj ri wkh pdwhuldo1 Wr frpsduh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv/ phdvxuhphqwv vkrxog eh fduulhg rxw dw vwdqgdug ydoxhv ri uhodwlyhkxplglwlhv dqg whpshudwxuhv1

Wkh uhvxowv ri suhylrxv olwhudwxuh vwxglhv kdyh khoshg iru d pruh irfxvhg lq0yhvwljdwlrq ri wkh suhvhqw uhvhdufk1 Qrw rqo| frqfuhwh fxehv ri lghqwlfdo frp0srvlwlrq dqg fxuhg xqghu vlplodu frqglwlrqv zhuh lqyhvwljdwhg +fkdswhu ;, exwudgrq0uhohdvh udwhv zhuh phdvxuhg e| xvlqj d whfkqltxh wkdw doorzv wkh uhodwlyhkxplglw| wr eh frqwuroohg +fkdswhu :,1 Pruhryhu/ d ghwdlohg lqyhvwljdwlrq rq wkhh�hfw ri prlvwxuh frqwhqw rq wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri frqfuhwh zdv uhshdwhg+vhfwlrq 441614,1 Wkh sur�oh ri udgrq0uhohdvh yhuvxv prlvwxuh zdv qxphulfdoo| uh0surgxfhg +vhfwlrq 441615, e| frpelqlqj lqirupdwlrq rq plfurvwuxfwxuh irupdwlrqdqg hyroxwlrq dqg prlvwxuh wudqvsruw lq frqfuhwh +fkdswhu <, zlwk wkh phdvxuhgghshqghqfh ri wkh gl�xvlrq +fkdswhu 43, dqg hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw +fkdswhu 44,ri udgrq rq wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri frqfuhwh1

D�� W?uLh4@|�L? L? h@_L? M@hh�iht

Wkh h�hfw rq udgrq h{kdodwlrq ri fryhulqj frqfuhwh vxuidfhv zlwk ydulrxv frdwlqjvkdv ehhq vwxglhg e| gl�huhqw dxwkruv1 D frpslodwlrq ri uhgxfwlrq idfwruv lv jlyhqlq Wdeoh 817 zklfk kdv ehhq dgrswhg iurp Sxw dqg Ydq ghu Juddi ^437`1 Wkhuhgxfwlrq idfwru/ u/ lv gh�qhg dv=

u @Hf �HSJ�

Hf

> +815,

zkhuh e| Hf dqg HSJ� zh ghqrwh wkh udgrq h{kdodwlrq udwh Hr ri dq xqfryhuhgdqg d fryhuhg vxuidfh/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Dffruglqj wr wklv gh�qlwlrq/ wkh ydoxh ri ulqfuhdvhv iru d pruh h�flhqw udgrq eduulhu1

Ydq Glmn dqg Gh Mrqj ^489` ghwhuplqhg uhgxfwlrq idfwruv rq vdpsohv ri frq0fuhwh zlwk glphqvlrqv ri 43�78�78 fp�1 Wkhvh vdpsohv zhuh fryhuhg rq doo vlghvdqg zhuh phdvxuhg dw 53�F dqg 83(UK1 Wkh uhvxowv vkrzhg wkdw dfwxdoo| doodssolhg fryhuv jlyh d uhgxfwlrq1 Lq jhqhudo odujhu uhgxfwlrqv duh irxqg e| dssolfd0wlrq ri pruh od|huv ri fryhu pdwhuldo1 Dssolfdwlrqv ri irxu od|huv ri sro|xuhwkdqhru irxu od|huv ri hsr{| uhvlq jdyh wkh odujhvw uhgxfwlrqv +u *:8(,1 D vlploduuhvxow zdv dovr irxqg e| Prudzvnd ^;6`1


Wdeoh 817= ,giU| Lu UL�iht L? |�i i �@*@|�L? h@|it uhL4 UL?Uhi|i�W|sh ri fryhu Uhgxfwlrq

sdlqwv= (sro|xuhwkdqh +5 od|huv, ^489` 96sro|xuhwkdqh +7 od|huv, ^489` :8

lghp ^73` <;lghp/ sulphu ^437` +713 j gp32, 85

lghp . ghihfw ^437` 69hsr{| uhvlq ^489` +5 od|huv, 63hsr{| uhvlq ^489` +7 od|huv, :9

rwkhuv=sodvwhu ^49;` 5405:

zdoosdshu zlwk jorvv| xqghufrdw ^49;` ?990?;3zdoosdshu ylq|o/ 5 slhfhv/

6 zhhnv rog ^437` 6;lghp/ 47 zhhnv rog ^437` 43

Ervpdqv ^437` uhsruwv d voljkwo| vpdoohu uhgxfwlrq idfwru ri u @:3( irusro|xuhwkdqh1 Wklv dxwkru dovr vwxglhg wkh h�hfw ri d ghihfw +gldphwhu ri 8 pp,lq wkh fryhu rq wkh h{kdodwlrq udwh1 Lw zdv irxqg wkdw vxfk d ghihfw ghfuhdvhvwkh uhgxfwlrq h�hfw zlwk 8058(1 D frpsdudeoh h�hfw rq wkh uhgxfwlrq idfwru zdvdovr irxqg e| Prudzvnd ^;6`/ zkr vwxglhg wkh lq�xhqfh ri wkh suhvhqfh ri d vpdoo7 pp gldphwhu kroh lqvlgh wkh fryhulqj pdwhuldo1

Zlwk wlph/ wkh uhgxfwlrq surshuwlhv ri d fhuwdlq fryhu dowhu1 Iru zdoosdshuylq|o/ zlwklq d whq zhhnv lqwhuydo/ u ghfuhdvhg iurp 6;( wr 43( rqo|1

\x hw do1 ^49;` xvhg frqfuhwh fxehv +ri xqvshfl�hg glphqvlrqv, wkdw zhuhfryhuhg rq doo vlghv dqg phdvxuhg dw 56�F dqg 93(UK1 Vljql�fdqw uhgxfwlrqv+u @990;3(, zhuh irxqg iru zdoosdshu zlwk jorvv| xqghufrdw1 Lq rwkhu vwxglhv+ ^43`/ ^43;`, lqvwhdg ri d uhgxfwlrq dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh ydoxhv ri Hr zdv phdvxuhg1Wklv lqfuhdvh zdv dvfulehg wr wkh suhvhqfh ri 22SUd lq wkh fryhulqj pdwhuldov+doxplqlxp sdlqw dqg zdoo sdshu,1

Idlvfd ^73` lqyhvwljdwhg wkh h�hfwlyhqhvv ri vhyhudo �rrulqj pdwhuldov dv eduul0huv iru udgrq wudqvsruw iurp wkh vrlo ehqhdwk exloglqjv1 Prvw ri wkh lqyhvwljdwhgeduulhuv +sro|xuhwkdqh/ sro|hvwhu/ doxplqlvhg sro|hwk|ohqh, vkrzhg h�flhqflhv rideryh ;3( lq uhgxflqj wkh udgrq �x{1 Rqo| wkh sro|hwk|ohqh irlo jdyh d orzudgrq uhgxfwlrq +u *63(,1

816 Lqirupdwlrq rq udgrq eduulhuv <:

Hlfkkro} hw do1 ^6;` phdvxuhg uhgxfwlrqv lq udgrq h{kdodwlrq udwhv iurp whvwzdoov diwhu dssolfdwlrq ri ydulrxv udgrq vhdodqwv1 Uhgxfwlrq idfwruv ri :;(+sro|hwk|ohqh,/ 93( +hsr{| sdlqw, dqg 65( +odwh{ sdlqw, duh uhsruwhg1

Dfwxdoo| wkh uhgxfwlrq idfwru ri d fryhulqj pdwhuldo/ u/ fdq eh uhodwhg wr dwudqvsruw sdudphwhu/ l1h1 wkh shuphdelolw| +S ,= wkh vpdoohu wkh shuphdelolw| rid fhuwdlq fryhu/ wkh odujhu wkh uhgxfwlrq idfwru1

Shuphdelolw| lv wkh sursruwlrqdolw| frqvwdqw ehwzhhq wkh �x{ wkurxjk d php0eudqh dqg wkh gl�huhqfh ehwzhhq frqfhqwudwlrqv ri wkh gl�xvlqj vxevwdqfh mxvwrxwvlgh wkh phpeudqh0vxuidfh1 Shuphdelolw| lv gh�qhg dv wkh surgxfw ri wkh gli0ixvlrq frh�flhqw +G, dqg wkh vroxelolw| +V, ri wkh phpeudqh zlwk uhvshfw wr dfhuwdlq vroxwh +lq wklv fdvh/ udgrq,=

S @ G V= +816,

Iru shuphdelolw| dqg gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv ghwhuplqhg wklv zd| +Ht1 816,/ wkhvroxelolw| frqvwdqw fruuhvsrqgv dfwxdoo| wr wkh frqvwdqw lq Khqu|*v Odz uhodwlqjwkh frqfhqwudwlrq mxvw rxwvlgh dqg mxvw zlwklq wkh phpeudqh ^437`1 Erwk shuph0delolw| dqg gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv kdyh glphqvlrqv ri p2 v3� zkloh Khqu|*v frqvwdqwlv glphqvlrqohvv1

Lq Wdeoh 818 ydoxhv ri gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv dqg shuphdelolwlhv iru d qxpehu risro|phulf phpeudqhv duh jlyhq1 Wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh lqyhvwljdwhg phpeudqh lvd sdudphwhu wkdw lq�xhqfhv erwk/ wkh shuphdelolw| dqg wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw=wkh wklfnhu wkh phpeudqh/ wkh odujhu wkh shuphdelolw|2gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw1 Dovrxvxdoo| d ckdug* sro|phu h{klelwv uhgxfhg shuphdelolwlhv frpsduhg wr d cvriw* rqh+sro|xuhwkdqh/ sro|ylq|ofkorulgh,1 Lq jhqhudo/ gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv vhhp wr iroorzwkh vdph wuhqgv dv shuphdelolwlhv= phpeudqhv zlwk kljk shuphdelolwlhv zloo dovrkdyh odujh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv1 Wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw ri d sro|hwk|ohqh php0eudqh lqfuhdvhv zlwk lqfuhdvlqj whpshudwxuh +Wdeoh 818,1 Iurp doo phpeudqhvolvwhg lq Wdeoh 818/ doxplqlvhg p|odu ^439` kdv wkh orzhvw shuphdelolw|1 Wklv uh0vxow zdv dovr suhglfwhg/ edvhg rq txdolwdwlyh gdwd/ e| Hvslqrvd hw do1 ^437` dqgdovr rewdlqhg lq rxu oderudwru| ^487` +iru grxeoh0vlghg doxplqlvhg sro|hwk|ohqhirlo,1

Lq d vwxg| ri Iohlvfkhu ^75`/ erwk wkh h�fdf| dqg shuphdelolwlhv ri ydulrxvfdxonlqj frpsrxqgv zhuh phdvxuhg1 Iru h{dpsoh dfu|olf odwh{ vlolfrqh fdxon +5pp wklfnqhvv, zdv uhsruwhg wr dwwhqxdwh udgrq wudqvsruw e| <; wr <<1<( dqgdovr h{klelwhg orz shuphdelolwlhv lq wkh udqjh 316 wr 31:�433�2p2 v3�1

Zrmfln ^496` phdvxuhg gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv dqg shuphdelolwlhv ri ydulrxvphpeudqhv dw 57�F dqg frqvwdqw orz kxplglw|1 Ri wkh whvwhg phpeudqhv/

<; Olwhudwxuh lqirupdwlrq

Wdeoh 818= +@_L? Tih4i@M�*�|)c S c @?_ _�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?|tc Gc Lu tL4i �h@_L? |�}�|< 4@|i�

h�@*t� �i|�ii? Mh@U!i|t ��ihi @�@�*@M*i� |�i |��U!?itt Lu |�i 4i4Mh@?i �t �?_�U@|i_�Pdwhuldo S G

433�2p2 v3� 433�2p2 v3�

sro|xuhwkdqh vriw 56 ^496` 715 ^496`sro|xuhwkdqh kdug 91< ^496` 31< ^496`hsr{| uhvlq 0 ?4 +6pp, ^94`

sro|hvwhu 315 +48�p, 0sro|dplgh 0 ?433� +315pp, ^<;`lghp/ vxsurq|o 315 ^496` 3139 ^496`sro|ylq|ofkorulgh 8 +88�p, ^439` 317 +<1;�p, ^84`lghp/ vriw 75 ^496` 715 ^496`lghp/ kdug :16 ^496` 417 ^496`sro|hwk|ohqh 3166 +58�p, ^439` :13 +:3�p, ^84`

:14 +73�p, ^437` 0lghp +dw 618�F, 0 613 +31403158pp, ^;;`

lghp +dw 44�F, 0 918 +31403158pp, ^;;`lghp +dw 58�F, 0 4914 +31403158pp, ^;;`sro|surs|ohqh +SS, 3188 +9�p, ^99` 0

3199 +43�p, ^99` 0sro|hwk|ohqhwhuhskwkdodwh +SHW, 0 3159 +45�p, ^84`p|odu 313; +4;�p, ^439` 0

sro|dplgh +vxsurq|o, zdv irxqg wr eh prvw vxlwhg dv udgrq eduulhu kdylqj pruhwkdq d idfwru ri whq orzhu shuphdelolw| wkdq sro|xuhwkdqh dqg sro|ylq|ofkorulgh1

Doo wkhvh vwxglhv vkrz wkdw udgrq uhgxfwlrq idfwruv fryhu d eurdg udqjh riydoxhv iru d zlgh ydulhw| ri phpeudqhv/ frdwlqjv dqg vhdodqwv1 Dssolfdwlrq risdlqwv rq edvlv ri sro|xuhwkdqh/ hsr{|/ p|odu/ SHW vhhp wr eh wkh ehvw fdqglgdwhvlq rewdlqlqj vljql�fdqw uhgxfwlrq ri udgrq h{kdodwlrq1 Wkh udgrq0uhgxfwlrq idfwrulv ixuwkhu lpsuryhg li pruh od|huv ri wkh vdph fryhulqj duh dssolhg1 Krzhyhu/ zlwkwlph dqg hqylurqphqwdo frqglwlrqv/ d ghjudgdwlrq ri wkh uhgxfwlrq h�hfw vhhpvwr rffxu dqg fhuwdlqo| wkh suhvhqfh ri vpdoo ghihfwv lq wkh fryhulqj pdwhuldo zloodowhu lwv uhgxfwlrq surshuwlhv1

Edvhg rq lqirupdwlrq rewdlqhg iurp wkh olwhudwxuh vwxglhv/ d ydulhw| ri fryhuvzhuh vhohfwhg lq rxu h{shulphqwdo lqyhvwljdwlrqv rq udgrq0uhgxfwlrq rq frqfuhwh+fkdswhu 45,1 Lq wklv wkhvlv +fkdswhu 46, d prgho lv sursrvhg wr ghvfuleh shuph0

816 Lqirupdwlrq rq udgrq eduulhuv <<

delolw| surshuwlhv ri ydulrxv sro|phulf phpeudqhv dqg dq lqlwldo dvvhvvphqw riwkh fdofxodwhg udgrq0gl�xvlrq dqg shuphdelolw| frh�flhqwv lv pdgh1

�

��4ih�U@* ThLUi_�hit

S�� W?|hL_�U|�L?

Wr vlpxodwh udgrq uhohdvh udwhv ri frqfuhwh dqg pruwdu dv ixqfwlrq ri wlph dqgzlwk fkdqjlqj hqylurqphqw frqglwlrqv wzr prghov duh sursrvhg1 Rqh wkdw gh0vfulehv wkh udgrq wudqvsruw lq d srurxv phglxp/ deeuhyldwhg e| UdgPrg dqgwkh rwkhu wkdw ghslfwv wkh hyroxwlrq ri plfurvwuxfwxuh dqg prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri wkhvdph vshflphq/ GxFRP1 E| xvlqj wklv frpelqdwlrq wkh qxpehu ri sdudphwhuvwkdw qhhg wr eh lqghshqghqwo| ghwhuplqhg iurp rwkhu phdvxuhphqwv lv ghfuhdvhgdqg rqo| yhu| edvlf lqirupdwlrq kdv wr eh lpsohphqwhg1 Dv lw lv dq lpsrvvleohwdvn wr rewdlq dqdo|wlfdo vroxwlrqv iru wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv e| frpelqlqj wkhwzr prghov ghvfulehg lq fkdswhu 7 dqg fkdswhu 6/ d qxphulfdo lpsohphqwdwlrqlv xvhg1 Wklv fkdswhu ryhuylhzv wkh prgdolw| ri wklv qxphulfdo lpsohphqwdwlrqiru hdfk ri wkh wzr prghov dqg frpsduhv wkh fdofxodwlrqv wr vrph h{shulphqwdowhvwv1 Vhfwlrq 915 uhihuv wr wkh udgrq wudqvsruw prgho dqg vhfwlrq 916 wr wkhprghoolqj ri frqfuhwh1 Lq wkh odvw vhfwlrq +917, d frxsohg vfkhph ri wkh wzr frghv

434

435 Qxphulfdo surfhgxuhv

lv sursrvhg1

S�2 +@_L? |h@?tTLh|

D sduwlfxodu fdvh ri wkh pxowl0skdvh wlph0ghshqghqw udgrq wudqvsruw htxdwlrq �

+ghulyhg lq ghwdlo e| Ydq ghu Vsrho ^487`,/ dffrxqwlqj rqo| iru gl�xvlyh wudqv0sruw/ lv ghvfulehg lq fkdswhu 71 Htxdwlrq 715:/ ghgxfhg iru dq lvrwurslf srurxvpdwhuldo/ lv zulwwhq lq whupv ri udgrq dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv lq wkh dlu0�oohg sruhvsdfh1 Lq wkh wudqvsruw prgho +UdgPrg, wkh surshuwlhv ri wkh phglxp duh gh0vfulehg yld vwuxfwxudo txdqwlwlhv dyhudjhg ryhu d odujhu uhsuhvhqwdwlyh hohphqwdu|yroxph +UHY, dqg d pdvv0edodqfh htxdwlrq iru hdfk skdvh +vrolg/ dlu dqg zdwhu,1Qxphulfdoo|/ wkh frqwuro0yroxph phwkrg +�qlwh gl�huhqfhv, lv xvhg wr jhqhudwh djulg ryhu d frqwlqxrxv grpdlq/ l1h1 d srurxv phglxp/ e| fhqwhulqj d frqwuro yro0xph dw hdfk julg srlqw +qrgh,1 Wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq/ F@/ lv dvvljqhg dv ydoxhwr hdfk qrgh/ dfwxdoo| uhsuhvhqwlqj wkh dyhudjh ydoxh ryhu wkh frqwuro yroxph1 Dixoo ghvfulswlrq ri wkh surfhgxuh xvhg wr glvfuhwlvh Ht1 715: lv jlyhq e| Ydq ghuVsrho ^487`1

Wkh qxphulfdo frgh +UdgPrg, lv lpsohphqwhg lq SDVFDO surjudpplqj odq0jxdjh xvlqj wkh Eruodqg Sdvfdo :13 frpslohu1 Qrgdo srlqwv duh lqwhuqdoo| gh�qhglq wkh surjudpph zklfk dovr srvlwlrqv wkh frqwuro0yroxph lqwhuidfhv1 Lqlwldosuhvvxuh dqg udgrq0frqfhqwudwlrq �hogv qhhg wr eh gh�qhg dv Jdxvvldq holplqd0wlrq lv hpsor|hg wr vroyh wkh glvfuhwlvhg v|vwhp ri htxdwlrqv1 D frpelqdwlrq ripdwhuldov zlwk gl�huhqw sdudphwhuv +srurvlw|/ prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrq/ shuphdelolw|/ghqvlw|/ udglxp frqwhqw/ hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw, fdq eh frxsohg zlwk wkh frru0glqdwhv ri wkh h{wuhph srlqwv gh�qlqj wkh erxqgdulhv1 D julg srlqw ghqvlw| lvdovr xvhg dv lqsxw/ erxqgdu| uh�qhphqwv ehlqj rewdlqhg e| ghfuhdvlqj wkh julgvsdflqj1 Jlyhq wkh lqlwldo frqfhqwudwlrqv/ wkh lqwhjudqgv duh hydoxdwhg dw vrphuhihuhqfh wlph w @ w. &�w +3 � & � 4, zkhuh & ghwhuplqhv wr zklfk h{whqw wkhrog +w, dqg wkh qhz +w.�w, wlph ohyho lv wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw1 Wkh rswlpdo ydoxhri & zlwk uhvshfw wr qxphulfdo dffxudf| ghshqgv rq wkh uhodwlyh lpsruwdqfh rigl�huhqw wudqvsruw surfhvvhv/ wkh julg vsdflqj dqg wkh wlph vwhs/ �w1 Wkh wrwdowlph ri wkh qxphulfdo uxq/ wkh wlph vwhs dqg & duh gh�qhg lq wkh lqsxw �oh dqg iruhdfk julg srlqw wkh ydoxhv iru wkh frqfhqwudwlrq dw hdfk wlph vwhs duh fdofxodwhg1

Wkh udgrq wudqvsruw prgho +UdgPrg, kdv ehhq h{whqvlyho| ydolgdwhg lq wkhSk1G1 uhvhdufk ri Ydq ghu Vsrho ^487` dqg wkh dffxudf| ri wkh prgho whvwhg e|

�W? }i?ih@* |h@?tTLh| �L�*_ Mi hiuihhi_ @t @UUL�?|�?} uLh ML|� @_�iU|��i @?_ _�g�t��i UL?�|h�M�|�L?t�

915 Udgrq wudqvsruw 436

frpsdulqj dqdo|wlfdo dqg qxphulfdo vroxwlrqv iru wkh fdvh ri rqh0glphqvlrqdovwhdg|0vwdwh wudqvsruw dqg iru wkdw ri wzr0glphqvlrqdo wlph0ghshqghqw gl�xvlyhwudqvsruw1 Qr qrwlfhdeoh gl�huhqfh ehwzhhq wkh uhvxowv ri wkh wzr phwkrgv rifdofxodwlrq ryhu dq dlu0�rz udqjh ri wzr rughuv ri pdjqlwxgh hphujhg iru wkhrqh0glphqvlrqdo sureohp1 Wkh pd{lpxp gl�huhqfhv ehwzhhq wkh wzr vroxwlrqviru doo wkh lqyhvwljdwhg fdvhv dv ixqfwlrq ri wkh uhodwlyh frqwulexwlrq ri dgyhfwlrqdqg gl�xvlrq duh ohvv wkdq 4(1 Vlplodu uhvxowv duh uhsruwhg dovr iru wkh fdvh riwkh wzr0glphqvlrqdo sureohp zkhuh wkh pd{lpxp uhodwlyh gl�huhqfh ehwzhhq wkhdqdo|wlfdo dqg qxphulfdo vroxwlrq zdv vlwxdwhg ehorz wkh doorzhg olplw ri 5(1Prgho fdofxodwlrqv duh vkrzq wr eh rswlpdo iru vpdoo julg vsdflqj dqg wlph vwhsv+hvshfldoo| iru uhjlrqv zkhuh kljk frqfhqwudwlrq judglhqwv rffxu,1

Wkh frpsdulvrq ri qxphulfdo fdofxodwlrqv zlwk h{shulphqwdo gdwd zdv shu0iruphg iru vhyhudo vlwxdwlrqv ri zklfk wkh frpsoh{lw| zdv lqfuhdvhg vwhs e| vwhs1Wkhvh duh olvwhg ehorz/ wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh rewdlqhg djuhhphqw ehwzhhq phdvxuh0phqwv dqg prgho1 Wkh pdwhuldo fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh srurxv pdwhuldo +vdqg,lpsohphqwhg lq wkh qxphulfdo frgh zhuh ghwhuplqhg iurp lqghshqghqw phdvxuh0phqwv1

� Iru sxuh gl�xvlyh wlph0ghshqghqw wudqvsruw/ uhvxowv gl�hu e| ohvv wkdq 43(^488`1

� Phdvxuhphqwv ri frpelqhg gl�xvlyh dqg dgyhfwlyh wudqvsruw/ zlwk d grzq0zdug/ d xszdug dqg d sxovdwlyh dgyhfwlyh �x{ ydolgdwhg wkh prgho djdlq zlwklq43( ^486`1

� Ilqdoo|/ d pruh frpsolfdwhg vhw ri h{shulphqwv zdv frpsduhg zlwk wkh prghofdofxodwlrqv/ l1h1 iru d fdvh zkhq d zdwhu ohyho lv vhw lq wkh vdqg1 Lq wklv fdvh/ dwvrph srvlwlrqv/ wkh prgho fdofxodwlrqv ryhuhvwlpdwhg wkh phdvxuhg ydoxhv zlwk53073(1 Lw zdv dvvxphg wkdw lqfrpsohwh nqrzohgjh ri vrph ri wkh lqsxw sd0udphwhuv +hvshfldoo| prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh ri wudqvsruw frh�flhqwv, fdxvhg wkhvhglvfuhsdqflhv ^487`1

Qxphulfdo udgrq0wudqvsruw prghov duh xvhg e| ydulrxv uhvhdufk jurxsv lqdssolfdwlrqv uhodwhg wr lqgrru udgrq1 Wr dvvxuh wkh txdolw| ri dqg frqvlvwhqf|ehwzhhq wkh ydulrxv prghov/ d ehqfkpdun whvw zdv rujdqlvhg e| Ulvr +Ghqpdun,lq wkh iudphzrun ri wkh HX surmhfw HUULFD +Hxurshdq Uhvhdufk lqwr UdgrqLq Frqvwuxfwlrq Frqfhuwhg Dfwlrq, ^49`1 Dowkrxjk vljql�fdqw glvdjuhhphqwv rf0fxuuhg ehwzhhq wkh sduwlflsdwlqj jurxsv/ wkh uhvxowv ri wkh QJG0NYL prghofrpsduhg zhoo wr wkh pdmrulw| ri wkh uhsruwhg uhvxowv1 Prvw olnho| vrxufhv riglvfuhsdqflhv ruljlqdwh lq wkh gh�qlwlrq ri sdudphwhuv/ wuhdwphqw ri lqwhuidfhfrqglwlrqv dqg fdofxodwlrq ri �x{hv iurp frqfhqwudwlrqv1


Frqvhtxhqwo|/ iru prvw ri wkh lqyhvwljdwhg fdvhv/ wkh suhvhqw udgrq wudqvsruwprgho suryhg wr eh d uholdeoh wrro/ qrw rqo| frpsdulqj zhoo zlwk dqdo|wlfdo vrox0wlrqv exw dovr ehlqj deoh wr glvsod| uhvsrqvhv lq djuhhphqw zlwk wkh h{shulphqwdorevhuydwlrqv1 Iru fdvhv zkhuh wkh glvfuhsdqflhv zhuh deryh 43( dqg hvshfldoo|iru srurxv phgld zlwk d pruh frpsoh{ vwuxfwxuh wkdq wkdw ri vdqg +l1h1 exloglqjpdwhuldov, wkh uhdvrq iru wkh glvfuhsdqflhv duh olnho| gxh wr ljqrulqj wkh prlv0wxuh ghshqghqf| ri wkh hpdqdwlrq dqg gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv dqg wkh prlvwxuhglvwulexwlrq ryhu wkh srurxv phglxp1

Lq wkh prvw jhqhudo dssurdfk/ gl�xvlrq dqg dgyhfwlrq duh frqvlghuhg1 Vlqfhdoo phdvxuhphqwv/ glvfxvvhg lq wklv wkhvlv/ duh fduulhg rxw xqghu vwhdg|0vwdwh htxl0oleulxp frqglwlrqv dqg vlqfh wkh suhvvxuh lq wkh h{shulphqwdo vhwxs lv frqwuroohgpdlqwdlqhg frqvwdqw qr dgyhfwlyh �x{hv frqwulexwh wr udgrq uhohdvh1 Wkxv/ dwkuhh0glphqvlrqdo qxphulfdo prghoolqj ri wkh vwhdg| vwdwh gl�xvlrq htxdwlrq=

gly +GK judgF@,0��-?F@ . VK @ 3 +914,

lv xvhg wr ghvfuleh udgrq wudqvsruw1 Lq wklv htxdwlrq wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lvdvvxphg wr eh frruglqdwh lqghshqghqw1

S�� L?Uhi|i 4L_i**�?}

Dowkrxjk frqfuhwh lv d frpsrvlwh pdwhuldo/ lw fdq riwhq eh ghvfulehg dv dqlvrwurslf/ krprjhqhrxv dqg xqlirup srurxv phglxp/ lwv wudqvsruw surshuwlhvehlqj jryhuqhg e| lwv sdvwh1 Wkh udqjh dqg frqglwlrqv xqghu zklfk wklv dvvxps0wlrq fdq eh dgrswhg duh eulh�| glvfxvvhg lq vhfwlrq 6181 Wkh prgho sursrvhg lqfkdswhu 6/ edvhg rq ixqgdphqwdo odzv ri wkhuprg|qdplfv dqg fkhplfdo sk|vlfv/surylghv txdqwlwdwlyh lqirupdwlrq uhodwhg wr wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh irupdwlrq/ hyr0oxwlrq ri k|gudwlrq dqg prlvwxuh wudqvsruw1 E| frqvlghulqj wkhvh frpsxwdwlrqdoprghov/ d �qlwh0hohphqw qxphulfdo frgh lv ghyhorshg wkdw g|qdplfdoo| frxsohvkhdw dqg pdvv wudqvsruw lq frqfuhwh1

Wkh vroxwlrq iru wkh wzr sulpdu| txdqwlwlhv whpshudwxuh dqg oltxlg suhvvxuh/duh rewdlqhg lq erwk vsdfh dqg wlph grpdlq e| vroylqj wkh htxdwlrqv ri hqhuj|frqvhuydwlrq +Ht1 614, dqg wkh frqvhuydwlrq ri pdvv ri prlvwxuh +Ht1 6165,1 Erwkhtxdwlrqv fdq eh jhqhulfdoo| uhsuhvhqwhg e| d sduwldo gl�huhqwldo htxdwlrq ri dsduderolf w|sh=

�C[

Cw� gly+G judg[, . t @ 3> +915,

916 Frqfuhwh prghoolqj 438

dffrpsdqlhg e| dssursuldwh erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv1 D frpprq dssurdfk wr qx0phulfdoo| vroyh wklv w|sh ri htxdwlrq lv wkh �qlwh0hohphqw phwkrg + ^89`/ ^43<`,1Wkh edvlf lghd ehklqg wklv phwkrg lv wkdw rqh dwwhpswv wr fdofxodwh wkh sur0mhfwlrq ri wkh vroxwlrq rq d �qlwh0glphqvlrqdo vsdfh vsdzqhg e| wkh vr0fdoohg�qlwh0hohphqw edvlv1 Rqfh wklv �qlwh0hohphqw edvlv lv fkrvhq/ wkh xqnqrzq riwkh sureohp fdq eh h{suhvvhg e| d �qlwh qxpehu ri frh�flhqwv zklfk duh wkhfrruglqdwhv ri lwv surmhfwlrq rq wklv fkrvhq edvlv1 Wr ghwhuplqh wkhvh frh�flhqwvrqh qhhgv dq htxdo qxpehu ri dojheudlf htxdwlrqv1 Wr rewdlq wklv/ zh irufh wkhixqfwlrqdo htxdolw| +Ht1 915, deryh wr eh vdwlv�hg dw d fhuwdlq qxpehu ri srlqwvd� dqg wkhq frpsohwh wkh v|vwhp e| dovr xvlqj wkh jlyhq erxqgdu| gdwd1

Wkh frqfuhwh prgho dv ghvfulehg lq fkdswhu 6 kdv ehhq lpsohphqwhg lq wkh 6G0GxFRP frgh +yhuvlrq 814, dqg wklv frgh kdv ehhq xvhg iru prghoolqj frqfuhwh0vwuxfwxuh ghyhorsphqw21 GxFRP zdv ghvljqhg wr surylgh d txdqwlwdwlyh hydox0dwlrq ri frqfuhwh shuirupdqfh/ qhfhvvdu| iru vhuylfhdelolw|/ gxudelolw| dqg vdihw|hydoxdwlrq ri frqfuhwh vwuxfwxuhv1 Wkh frpsxwdwlrqdo v|vwhp zdv whvwhg e| ds0so|lqj lw wr vhwv ri h{shulphqwdo gdwd uhodwhg wr d qxpehu ri sk|vlfdo skhqrphqd1Wkh h�hfwv ri zdwhu0fhphqw udwlrv/ pl{ sursruwlrqv/ fxulqj frqglwlrqv dqg vshfl0phq jhrphwu| rq wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh dqg vwuhqjwk ghyhorsphqw zhuh lqyhvwljdwhg1Xqghu duelwudu| gu|lqj0zhwwlqj frqglwlrqv wkh frgh zdv dssolhg wr suhglfw wkhprlvwxuh orvv dqg jdlq ehkdylrxu1 Zdwhu orvv wrjhwkhu zlwk k|gudwlrq dovr jhqhu0dwh yroxphwulf ghirupdwlrq ri frqfuhwh frpsrvlwh vxfk wkdw dq hvwlpdwlrq ri wkhghjuhh ri vkulqndjh fdq eh ghulyhg1 Suholplqdu| yhul�fdwlrqv kdyh vkrzq uhdvrq0deoh djuhhphqw zlwk h{shulphqwv hvshfldoo| frqvlghulqj wkdw wkh ryhudoo frpelqhgv|vwhp xvhv rqo| d ihz hpslulfdo sdudphwhuv1 D ixoo ghvfulswlrq ri wkh wkhruhw0lfdo prgho/ wkh frgh dqg lwv ydolgdwlrq fdq eh irxqg lq wkh errn cPrghoolqj rifrqfuhwh shuirupdqfh* ^:4`1

Wkh ryhudoo frpsxwdwlrqdo vfkhph ri wkh GxFRP frgh xvhg lq wkh suhvhqwwkhvlv lv suhvhqwhg lq Ilj1 9141 Wkh dqdo|wlfdoo| h{dplqhg lqwhu0uhodwlrqvklsv rik|gudwlrq/ prlvwxuh wudqvsruw dqg sruh0vwuxfwxuh ghyhorsphqw surfhvvhv duh sxwwrjhwkhu/ lq d g|qdplfdoo| frxsohg pdqqhu/ xqghu GxFRP1

Wkh lqsxw lqirupdwlrq uhtxluhg e| wkh prgho lv=

� jhrphwulfdo vkdsh dqg glphqvlrqv ri wkh vwuxfwxuh>

2A�i ?�4ih�U@* UL_i �t �4T*i4i?|i_ �? 6�+A+�� ThL}h@44�?} *@?}�@}i �t�?} |�i ��UhLtLu| �hL�iU| #i�i*LTihc 6Lh|h@? �L�ih 5|@|�L? e�f UL4T�*ih� A�i #�� UL_i �t @ ThL_�U|Lu |�i �L?Uhi|i w@MLh@|Lh)c #iT@h|4i?| Lu ��* ,?}�?iih�?}c N?��iht�|) Lu AL!)L @?_ �t _i�i*�LTi_ M) ThLu� k� �@i!@�@ EThL}h@44i uh@4i _i�i*LTih @?_ ThL�iU| *i@_ih�c _h� ��@�Mi ��+�ETh�?U�T@* uLh �)}hL�T�)t�U@* t)t|i4�c k�t��c ��A� ETh�?U�T@* uLh �)_h@|�L? �i@| 4L_i**�?}� @?_Wt��_@c ��A� ETh�?U�T@* uLh �L? 4�}h@|�L? @?_ ULhhLt�L?��


INPUT

Mix proportionsChemical components ofcement and admixtureStructure dimensions andshapeInitial temperature, TInitial relative humidity ofthe environment, RH

OUTPUT

Porosity distributionMoisture distributionDegree of hydrationAmount of free water

MASS TRANSPORT

IsothermsDiffusionCapillary water fixationConductivitySaturation versus T and RH

HYDRATIONPROCESS

Powder compositionHeat generationTemperature versus timeHeat generation rate versusaccumulated heatDegree of hydrationWater available forhydration

MICROSTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

Mono-sized particle dispersionParticle expansion model based upon the degree ofhydrationLinear bulk porosity variation in the expandingcluster of a particle

Environmental conditions (T and RH) in time

Iljxuh 914= GxFRP UL4T�|@|�L?@* tU�i4i�

� qrghv/ hohphqwv dqg vxuidfhv>

� lqlwldo whpshudwxuh ri frqfuhwh dw sodfhphqw>

� lqlwldo oltxlg suhvvxuh lq wkh sruh vsdfh>

� hqylurqphqwdo erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv +W / UK, wr zklfk wkh vwuxfwxuh lv h{0srvhg dw hdfk vxevhtxhqw wlph vwhs>

� pl{wxuh sursruwlrq ri frqfuhwh +zdwhu0srzghu udwlr/ xqlw pdvv ri frqfuhwhfrpsrqhqwv,>

�plqhudo frpsrvlwlrq ri fhphqw2srzghu pdwhuldo fkdudfwhulvwlfv +vshfl�f ghq0vlwlhv,1

D qxphulfdo frgh zdv zulwwhq dw wkh QJG0NYL wkdw dxwrpdwlfdoo| jhqhu0dwhv wkh lqsxw �ohv iru d uhfwdqjxodu2fxelfdo vdpsoh jhrphwu| dv uhtxluhg e| wkhGxFRP frgh1 Wklv lv hvshfldoo| xvhixo iru wkh surshu lpsohphqwdwlrq ri wkh�qlwh0hohphqw jhrphwu| +qrghv/ hohphqwv dqg vxuidfhv, dqg iru orqj vlpxodwlrq

917 Frxsolqj ri prghov 43:

wlphv1

Ehvlghv wkh vroxwlrq iru wkh wzr sulpdu| txdqwlwlhv/ whpshudwxuh dqg oltxlgsuhvvxuh/ rwkhu lqwhuqdo txdqwlwlhv fdq dovr eh fdofxodwhg dw hdfk vwhs/ lq erwkvsdfh dqg wlph grpdlq1 Ri lqwhuhvw iru wkh suhvhqw uhvhdufk duh=

� plfursruh vwuxfwxuh ri frqfuhwh +srurvlw|/ sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq/ hwf1,�>

� ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq ri fhphqw lq frqfuhwh>

� sruh0zdwhu frqwhqw dqg ghjuhh ri zdwhu vdwxudwlrq ri ydulrxv frqfuhwh skdvhv1

S�e �L�T*�?} Lu 4L_i*t

Rxu jrdo lv wr frxsoh wzr prghov/ rqh wkdw ghvfulehv udgrq wudqvsruw lq d srurxvphglxp +frghg dv QJG0UdgPrg, dqg wkh rwkhu wkdw wudfhv wkh plfurvwuxf0wxudo dqg prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrq hyroxwlrq iru frqfuhwh +GxFRP,1 Lq sulqflsoh/lqwhjudwlqj wkh wzr prghov zrxog uhvxow lq d vfkhph wkdw lv deoh wr ghvfuleh wlph0ghshqghqw fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri udgrq uhohdvh gxh wr wkh fkdqjh lq wkh plfurvwuxf0wxudo sdudphwhuv dv lq�xhqfhg e| wkh fxulqj dqg hqylurqphqwdo frqglwlrqv1

Wkh vwduwlqj srlqw lv surylghg e| Ht1 715: xvlqj wkh h{shulphqwdoo| ghwhu0plqhg pdwhuldo sdudphwhuv1 Prvw ri wkh wlph dqg hvshfldoo| iru frqvrolgdwhgsrurxv phgld olnh frqfuhwh/ wkhvh phwkrgv duh qrw yhu| suhflvh1 GxFRP r�huvwkh srvvlelolw| wr qxphulfdoo| rewdlq lqirupdwlrq rq wkh wrwdo frqfuhwh srurvlw|dqg prlvwxuh frqwhqw wrjhwkhu zlwk wkhlu wlph hyroxwlrq e| rqo| xvlqj d ihz sd0udphwhuv uhodwhg wr wkh pl{ sursruwlrqv dqg jhrphwulfdo vkdsh ri wkh vshflphq1Frqvhtxhqwo|/ dw dq| wlph w +v,/ wkh sduwlwlrq fruuhfwhg srurvlw|/ � fdq eh fdofx0odwhg xvlqj Ht1 715;1 Wkxv/ wkh rqo| txdqwlwlhv wkdw uhpdlq wr eh ghwhuplqhg rqd ixoo h{shulphqwdo edvlv duh wkh udgrq hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw/ wkh udgrq gl�xvlrqfrh�flhqw dqg wkh udglxp frqwhqw ri frqfuhwh1

Wkh sursrvhg frxsohg vfkhph ri frpsxwdwlrq lv suhvhqwhg lq Ilj1 9151 Wkhfrxsohg frgh zrxog dovr doorz wr prgho wkh ghshqghqfh ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwhviru d vshflphq zlwk fkdqjlqj prlvwxuh frqwhqw/ dw qrupdoo| hqfrxqwhuhg uhodwlyhkxplglwlhv ri wkh hqylurqphqw ru hyhq iru vhyhuh gu|lqj frqglwlrqv1 Wkh uhvxowv/dv wkh| frpsduh wr h{shulphqwv duh suhvhqwhg dqg glvfxvvhg lq fkdswhu 441

Olwhudwxuh vwxglhv ^5` lqglfdwh wkdw wkh ihdwxuhv fkdudfwhulvlqj lqglylgxdo frp0srqhqwv ri frqfuhwh zhuh riwhq vkrzq wr kdyh dq dgglwlyh ehkdylrxu1 Gxh wr wkhkljk khwhurjhqhlw| ri wkh frqfuhwh dqg wr wkh idfw wkdw riwhq lw lv pxfk hdvlhu

�A�i _�hiU| hit�*| U@*U�*@|i_ ��|� #�� t |�@| Lu |�i TLhi�t�3i _�t|h�M�|�L? T@h@4i|ih�A�i TLhi�t�3i _�t|h�M�|�L? �|ti*u �t @? �?_�hiU| hit�*| Lu |�i #�� U@*U�*@|�L?t�

43; Qxphulfdo surfhgxuhv

Experimental determinationfor components and mortar

Modeling of microstructure(numerical)

Radiumconcentration

Emanationcoefficient

Pore-sizedistribution

Porosity Pore watercontent

Radium concentrationfor concrete

Emanation coefficientfor concrete

Production Partition correctedporosity, β

Diffusion coefficientD

NGD-RadMod

Radon-release rates, R

? ?

Iljxuh 915= �L�T*i_ tU�i4i Lu t|h�U|�hi uLh4@|�L? Lu UL?Uhi|i @?_ h@_L?�hi*i@ti h@|it�

wr ghwhuplqh d fhuwdlq fkdudfwhulvwlf iru wkh frpsrqhqwv/ wkh dgglwlylw| k|srwk0hvlv zrxog eh d xvhixo wrro lq frpsxwdwlrqv1 Wklv dgglwlylw| k|srwkhvlv zloo ehwhvwhg +vhfwlrq ;16, iru wkh udglrphwulf surshuwlhv +udglxp dfwlylw| frqfhqwud0wlrqv/ udgrq hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw dqg hyhq udgrq uhohdvh,1 Wklv lv wkh uhdvrq iruwkh wzr txhvwlrq pdunv lq Ilj1 9151

�

, Tih�4i?|@* ThLUi_�hit

.�� W?|hL_�U|�L?

Vhyhudo h{shulphqwdo whfkqltxhv zhuh hpsor|hg wr phdvxuh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhvdqg hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqwv/ udglxp0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv dqg srurvlwlhv ri ydu0lrxv vdpsohv1 Lqlwldoo| lw zdv wkh dlp wr revhuyh/ rq dq hpslulfdo edvlv/ wkhfrqqhfwlrq ehwzhhq wkhvh txdqwlwlhv dqg wr lqyhvwljdwh wr zkdw h{whqw wkh| duhlq�xhqfhg ru lq�xhqfh rwkhu pdwhuldo sdudphwhuv +l1h1 prlvwxuh frqwhqw,1 Ilqdoo|/lq wkh dwwhpsw wr frqvwuxfw d prgho iru udgrq0uhohdvh e| frqfuhwh/ vrph ri wkhphdvxuhg ydoxhv zhuh xvhg dv lqsxw sdudphwhuv lq wkh qxphulfdo prghoolqj ru wrydolgdwh wkh prgho +Ilj1 915,1

Udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv zhuh phdvxuhg zlwk wkh QJG0NYL udgrq0uhohdvh udwhvhwxs xqghu zhoo0gh�qhg/ vwhdg|0vwdwh frqglwlrqv1 Wkh phdvxuhphqw surfhgxuhfrpsolhv zlwk wkh prvw uhfhqw yhuvlrq ri wkh Gxwfk suh0qrupdwlyh surwrfro iruudgrq0h{kdodwlrq phdvxuhphqwv ^;`1 Lq vhfwlrq :15 wkh lqvwuxphqw/ wkh phdvxuh0phqw phwkrg/ wkh fdofxodwlrq dqg fdoleudwlrq surfhgxuhv wrjhwkhu zlwk lqirupd0

43<

443 H{shulphqwdo surfhgxuhv

wlrq rq txdolw| frqwuro dvshfwv duh lqwurgxfhg1

Wr ghwhuplqh wkh 22SUd0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv/ wkh �0ud| vshfwurphwu| lvhpsor|hg1 Wkh phwkrgrorj| ri wklv phdvxuhphqw whfkqltxh lv ghvfulehg lq vhf0wlrq :161 Iurp hlwkhu udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phdvxuhphqwv ru iurp �0ud| vshfwuddovr wkh udgrq0hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw fdq eh fdofxodwhg +vhfwlrq :17,1 Iru srurvlw|ghwhuplqdwlrqv d vshfldo vhwxs/ edvhg rq d jdv0h{sdqvlrq phwkrg/ zdv exlow dwQJG0NYL 1 Vhfwlrq :18 eulh�| glvfxvvhv wkh sulqflsoh ri wkh phwkrg/ wkh rswlpl0vdwlrq/ wkh phdvxuhphqw dqg wkh fdoleudwlrq surfhgxuhv1

.�2 �B#�kVW h@_L?�hi*i@ti h@|i ti|�T

.�2�� #itUh�T|�L? Lu |�i ti|�T

Wkh lqvwuxphqw fxuuhqwo| xvhg dw QJG0NYL wr phdvxuh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv +Ilj1 7lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq, lv edvhg rq d vhwxs exlow gxulqj d slorw vwxg| ^96` rqudgrq wudqvsduhqf| ri exloglqj pdwhuldov1 Wkh lqvwuxphqw frqvlvwv ri d vwdlqohvvvwhho er{ +ri ;3 o lq yroxph dqg rxwhu glphqvlrqv 3199�3179�3164 p�, forvhg r�zlwk d vhdohg olg1 Lqvlgh wkh er{ d vdpsoh +EP lq Ilj1 :14, lv sodfhg1 D udgrq0iuhh qlwurjhq �rz sdvvhv wkurxjk wklv er{1 Wkh uhodwlyh kxplglw| ri wkh �rzlv frqglwlrqhg e| frpelqlqj d �rz zhwwhg e| d kxplgl�hu +K lq Ilj1 :14, dqgd gu| �rz1 Iorz frqwuroohuv +IF lq Ilj1 :14, uhjxodwh hdfk �rz dqg d uhodwlyhkxplglw| vhqvru +UK� lq Ilj1 :14, prqlwruv wkh frpelqhg �rz1 Wkh vwdqgdugydoxhv ri wkh qlwurjhq �rz dqg lwv uhodwlyh kxplglw| iru prvw ri wkh phdvxuh0phqwv duh 733poplq3� dqg 83( UK / uhvshfwlyho|1 Wkh �rz lv vsolw dqg gluhfwhgwr wzr lqohwv/ lq wkh xsshu dqg orzhu sduw ri wkh er{/ wr surylgh d xqlirup dqgkrprjhqhrxv �rz sdwwhuq1 Wkh qlwurjhq �rz ohdyhv wkh er{ wkurxjk wzr rxwohwv>wkh �rzv duh uhfrpelqhg ehiruh sdvvlqj wr d �rz phwhu +IP lq Ilj1 :14, dqgd vhfrqg uhodwlyh0kxplglw| vhqvru +UK2 lq Ilj1 :14, |lhoglqj lqirupdwlrq derxwd srvvleoh fkdqjh lq kxplglw| ri wkh vdpsoh1 Vxssohphqwdu|/ d vhqvru lqvhuwhglq wkh olg +W lq Ilj1 :14, prqlwruv wkh whpshudwxuh gxulqj d phdvxuhphqw1 Wrsuhyhqw �xfwxdwlrqv gxh wr dwprvskhulf suhvvxuh yduldwlrqv/ wkh suhvvxuh lqvlghwkh vhwxs lv nhsw frqvwdqw e| d ihhgedfn v|vwhp +SFX lq Ilj1 :14,1 Wkh gh0vluhg ydoxh iru wkh suhvvxuh ri wkh v|vwhp/ kljkhu wkdq wkh dwprvskhulf suhvvxuh+xvxdoo| 43:3pedu,/ lv suhvhw lq wkh edurphwhu1 Wkh dfwxdoo| phdvxuhg ydoxh lvfrqwlqxrxvo| frpsduhg wr wkh suhvhw ydoxh1 D ydoyh +Y lq Ilj1 :14, lv uhvsrqg0lqj e| forvlqj2rshqlqj zkhq d srvlwlyh2qhjdwlyh suhvvxuh gl�huhqfh lv phdvxuhgwkxv/ uhgxflqj2uhohdvlqj �rz iurp wkh er{1

:15 QJG0NYL udgrq0uhohdvh udwh vhwxs 444

Iljxuh :14= 5U�i4@|�U Thiti?|@|�L? Lu |�i �B#�kVW i �@*@|�L? ti|�T� 6�G �L� UL?|hL**ih(

O G ��4�_��ih( +O�c2c�G hi*@|��i ��4�_�|) ti?tLht( AG |i4Tih@|�hi ti?tLh( 6�G �L� 4i|ih( ��G

M��*_�?} 4@|ih�@*( G�G Thi�_h)ih Et�*�U@ }i*�( G2G _h)ih E�@|ih |h@T�( ��G @U|��@|i_ U�@hUL@*(

w� G *�^��_ ?�|hL}i?( V G �@*�i( ��N G Thitt�hi UL?|hL* �?�|( #�G _�gihi?|�@* Thitt�hi |h@?t_�Uih�

Diwhu ehlqj suh0gulhg zlwk d froxpq ri vlolfdjho +G� lq Ilj1 :14, dqg iuhh}h0gulhg lq d yldo +G2 lq Ilj1 :14, frrohg wr oltxlg qlwurjhq whpshudwxuh +OQ lqIlj1 :14,/ wkh �rz sdvvhv wkurxjk d vhfrqg yldo wkdw frqwdlqv d froxpq ri dfwlydwhgfkdufrdo +DFF lq Ilj1 :14,1 Wkh uroh ri wkh vlolfdjho froxpq dqg ri wkh zdwhuwuds lv wr uhpryh wkh zdwhu ydsrxu iurp wkh h{kdxvw �rz wr suhyhqw lfh0dffuhwlrqlq wkh fkdufrdo ehg1 Wkh udgrq h{kdohg e| wkh vdpsoh dqg wudqvsruwhg zlwk wkhqlwurjhq �rz lv dgvruehg e| wkh fkdufrdo1 Wr hqkdqfh wkh dgvruswlrq surshuwlhvri fkdufrdo dqg uhgxfh wkh suredelolw| ri orrvlqj udgrq iurp wkh dgvruehu gxulqjwkh dgvruswlrq wlph/ wkh yldo lv nhsw dw oltxlg qlwurjhq whpshudwxuh1 Wkh uhodwlyhkxplglw| ri wkh h{kdxvw qlwurjhq �rz lv frqwlqxrxvo| prqlwruhg +UK� lq Ilj1 :14,dqg vkrxog lq sulqflsoh eh/ dw dq| wlph/ htxdo wr }hur1 D ghyldwlqj ydoxh vljqvwkh qhhg iru uh�oolqj ri wkh oltxlg qlwurjhq frqwdlqhu1

Wkh gl�huhqfh ehwzhhq dwprvskhulf suhvvxuh dqg suhvvxuh lqvlgh wkh v|vwhplv phdvxuhg dw wkh srvlwlrq ehiruh wkh vlolfd jho suh0gu|hu +GS lq Ilj1 :14,1 Wkhuhdglqj ri wklv wudqvgxfhu vljqdov xqfrqwuroohg suhvvxuh lqfuhdvhv gxh wr forjjlqjri wkh iuhh}h0gu|hu dqg2ri fkdufrdo dgvruehu e| irupdwlrq ri lfh1 Wkh rxwsxw yrow0djhv ri wkh �rz frqwuroohuv dqg phwhu/ kxplglw| vhqvruv/ wkhuprphwhu/ gl�huhqwldosuhvvxuh wudqvgxfhu/ dqg edurphwhu ri wkh suhvvxuh frqwuro xqlw duh wudqvplwwhgwr d gdwd0orjjhu zkhuh 0frqyhuwhg wr wkh surshu xqlwv0 wkh ydoxhv duh prqlwruhg


rq d vfuhhq dqg uhiuhvkhg hyhu| 8 vhf1 Krxuo| dyhudjhv duh vwruhg lq d gdwd �oh1

.�2�2 �i@t�hi4i?| ThLUi_�hit

Diwhu wkh vhwxs lv suhsduhg/ d udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phdvxuhphqw vwduwv zlwk hq0forvlqj wkh exloglqj pdwhuldo vdpsoh lq wkh vhwxs dqg e| suh0�xvklqj wkh v|vwhpzlwk wkh qlwurjhq �rz wr uhdfk vwhdg|0vwdwh frqglwlrqv +vhh dovr vhfwlrq :1516,1 Dvwdqgdug txdqwlw| ri fkdufrdo +58 j, lv dfwlydwhg iru dw ohdvw 45 krxuv lq d yhqwl0odwhg ryhq dw 453�F1 Khdwlqj dw wklv whpshudwxuh zloo uhpryh doo udgrq wkdw zdvwudsshg gxulqj vwrudjh dw urrp frqglwlrqv iurp wkh fkdufrdo1 Iru hyhu| phd0vxuhphqw/ rqo| 4:14 j ri wkh dfwlydwhg fkdufrdo� lv srxuhg lq d yldo/ sodfhg lq wkholtxlg qlwurjhq frqwdlqhu dqg �xvkhg zlwk qlwurjhq jdv iru 48plq wr doorz wkhfkdufrdo wr htxloleudwh wr oltxlg qlwurjhq whpshudwxuh1 Vxevhtxhqwo| wkh fkdu0frdo dgvruehu lv frqqhfwhg wr wkh h{kdxvw �rz iurp wkh h{kdodwlrq vhwxs dqg dqdgvruswlrq lv vwduwhg1

Dw wkh hqg ri wkh dgvruswlrq wlph/ wkh fkdufrdo shoohwv duh wudqvihuuhg lqwr dvwdqgdug sloo0er{ +gldphwhu 83 pp, dqg vhdohg zlwk wdsh1 Wkh udgrq0frqwdlqlqjfkdufrdo shoohwv lq wkh sloo er{ duh krprjhqlvhg e| vkdnlqj ehiruh ehlqj sodfhglq d fdoleudwhg jhrphwu| rq wkh �0ud| vshfwurphwhu21

D zdlwlqj wlph ri 6 krxuv kdv wr sdvv ehiruh wkh vwduw ri wkh �0ud| phdvxuh0phqw/ wr doorz iru vhfxodu htxloleulxp ehwzhhq udgrq dqg lwv ghfd| surgxfwv +vhhvhfwlrq 41414,1 Wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri frxqwv lq wkh hqhuj| udqjh ri 83 nhY� wr wkhxsshu hqhuj| olplw ri wkh vshfwurphwhu lv xvhg wr fdofxodwh wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhri wkh vdpsoh +vhfwlrq :1516,1 Wklv hqhuj| zlqgrz frpsulvhv vhyhudo skrwrshdnvruljlqdwlqj iurp wkh �0ud| hplwwlqj ghfd| surgxfwv 2�eSe dqg 2�eEl1

�A�i t|@?_@h_ U@*�Mh@|i_ }iL4i|h) @| �B#�kVW hi^��hit |L �** @ T�** ML �T |L @ �i�}�| Lu2�� U4 |�@| ULhhitTL?_t |L @? @4L�?| Lu �.�� } Lu U�@hUL@*�

2A�L *L��M@U!}hL�?_ ��}��T�h�|) Bih4@?��4 UL@ �@* _i|iU|Lht �ihi �ti_ uLh |�i @U|��|)_i|ih4�?@|�L?t� 5TiU|hL4i|ih 5� �t @? ?�|)Ti _i|iU|Lh E,B:B �+A,� w��j tih�it�c ��|� @?i?ih}) ��?_L� �T |L f�. �iVc �@��?} ��}� hitL*�|�L? �? |�i *L��i?ih}) h@?}i� 5TiU|hL4i|ih52 �t @ T�|)Ti _i|iU|Lh E,B:B �+A,�c B,��eD2ff�5�c ��|� @ U*Lti�i?_ }iL4i|h) @?_ @**L�t|�i @U^��t�|�L? Lu tTiU|h@ �? @ MhL@_ i?ih}) h@?}i E�T |L � �iV�� L|� _i|iU|Lht @hi t��i*_i_M) �f U4 Lu *L� @U|��|) *i@_ |L hi_�Ui M@U!}hL�?_ h@_�@|�L?�

�AL @�L�_ |�i UL?|h�M�|�L? uhL4 |�i eS�D2 !iV *�?i Lu 2�f�M |�@| ��** �?Uhi@ti �? |�4i _�i |L@UU�4�*@|�L? Lu |��t h@_�L?�U*�_i L? |�i U�@hUL@*�


.�2�� @*U�*@|�L?@* ThLUi_�hit

+@_L? UL?Ui?|h@|�L? �? |�i i �@*@|�L? �L*�4i

D udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phdvxuhphqw fdq eh fduulhg rxw rqfh htxloleulxp +vwhdg|0vwdwh, frqglwlrqv lqvlgh wkh h{kdodwlrq fkdpehu ri yroxph Y|J|@, +p

�, duh hvwde0olvkhg1 Diwhu wkh hqforvxuh ri wkh vdpsoh ri yroxph Yr +p�, lq wkh fkdpehu/ wkhudgrq frqfhqwudwlrq F +Etp3�, lq wkh yroxph Y @ Y|J|@, � Yr +p�, vwduwv wrexlog xs gxh wr wkh udgrq surgxfwlrq e| wkh hqforvhg vdpsoh/ U +Et v3�,1 Dwwkh vdph wlph wkh frqfhqwudwlrq ghfuhdvhv gxh wr wkh �xvklqj ri wkh h{kdodwlrqfkdpehu zlwk wkh qlwurjhq �rz M +p� v3�, dw d yhqwlodwlrq udwh �� @ M@Y +v3�,dqg gxh wr wkh ghfd| ri udgrq/ �-? +v3�,1 Wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh vdpsoh/ dovr dfhuwdlq yroxph ri dlu zlwk dq lqlwldo udgrq dfwlylw| F� +Etp3�, lv hqforvhg lq wkhh{kdodwlrq yroxph1 Wkxv/ wkh hyroxwlrq ri wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq lq wkh yroxphY +p�, lv jlyhq e|=

Y Y�Y|

@ U� MF � �-?FY> +:14,

zlwk lqlwldo frqglwlrq

F+�, @ F�> � @ 3= +:15,

Wkh vroxwlrq ri wklv pdvv0edodqfh htxdwlrq/

F+�, @ -T Eb�nb-?�

+4� h{s+�+�� . �-?,�,, .F� h{s+�+�� . �-?,�,> +:16,

frpsulvhv wzr whupv ri zklfk wkh vhfrqg rqh uhsuhvhqwv wkh cphpru|* ri wkh lqlwldofrqfhqwudwlrq1 Wr kdyh d qhjoljleoh frqwulexwlrq ri wklv whup/ d orqj �xvklqj wlphri wkh v|vwhp +� $4, lv uhtxluhg1 Xqghu vxfk flufxpvwdqfhv/ wkh frqfhqwudwlrqlqvlgh wkh h{kdodwlrq yroxph zloo uhdfk dq htxloleulxp ydoxh/ Fe^ +Etp3�, jlyhqe|=

Fe^ @-

T Eb�nb-?�= +:17,

Lq wkh h{shulphqwdo surfhgxuh wkh h{kdodwlrq yroxph lv �xvkhg dw ohdvw �yh wlphvlwv rzq yroxph zlwk udgrq0iuhh qlwurjhq dw d yhqwlodwlrq udwh ri derxw 433e v3�/zklfk lv pxfk odujhu wkdq wkh ghfd| frqvwdqw ri udgrq +514�433S v3�,1 Wklvfruuhvsrqgv wr d suh0�xvklqj wlph ri derxw 4: krxuv dqg d qlwurjhq �rz udwhri 733poplq3�1 Edvhg rq wkhvh frqglwlrqv/ li wkh lqlwldo udgrq dfwlylw| frqfhq0wudwlrq F� lv }hur/ wkh frqfhqwudwlrq diwhu �xvklqj grhv qrw ghyldwh pruh wkdq6( iurp wkh htxloleulxp frqfhqwudwlrq1 Li d kljk lqlwldo udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq lvh{shfwhg/ odujhu �xvklqj yroxphv kdyh wr eh dssolhg phdqlqj wkdw iru wkh vdph�rz udwh/ orqjhu suh0�xvklqj wlphv duh qhhghg1


�@*U�*@|�L? Lu h@_L?�hi*i@ti h@|i

Wr uhodwh wkh qxpehu ri frxqwv lq wkh uhfrughg �0vshfwuxp wr wkh dfwlylw| riwkh dgvruehg udgrq rq wkh fkdufrdo dqg wr wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ri wkh vrxufh/wkh dgvruswlrq surfhvv ri udgrq rq wkh fkdufrdo zloo eh dqdo|vhg1 Wkh h{shfwhgdfwlylwlhv dv ixqfwlrq ri wkh dgvruswlrq wlph/ w@ +wlph lqwhuydo ehwzhhq wkh vwduwdqg wkh hqg ri dgvruswlrq,/ zdlwlqj wlph/ w� +wlph ehwzhhq hqg ri dgvruswlrq dqgvwduw ri wkh �0ud| phdvxuhphqw, dqg frxqwlqj wlph/ w6 ri wkh �0ud| phdvxuhphqwzloo eh fdofxodwhg1

Wr ghwhuplqh wkh udgrq dfwlylw| rq wkh dfwlydwhg fkdufrdo/ rqh dvvxphv wkdwdiwhu wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq lqvlgh wkh h{kdodwlrq yroxph kdv uhdfkhg lwv htxl0oleulxp ydoxh Fe^/ wkh rxwjrlqj jdv �rz lv ohg wkurxjk d udgrq dgvruehu +h1j1 yldozlwk dfwlydwhg fkdufrdo,1 Li rxu forfn lv uhvhw wr w @ 3 dw wkh wlph wkh dgvruswlrqvwduwv dqg dvvxplqj wkdw rqo| d iudfwlrq � ri udgrq lv dgvruehg rq wkh fkdufrdo/wkh udwh ri fkdqjh ri udgrq dfwlylw| D-? +Et, rq wkh dgvruehu lv jlyhq e|=

Y�-?

Y|@ �MFe^ � �-?D-?> +:18,

zlwk lqlwldo frqglwlrq

D-?+w, @ 3> w @ 3= +:19,

Wkh vroxwlrq ri Ht1 :18 dw w @ w@ lv/ xvlqj dovr Ht1 :17=

D-?+w@, @>-b-?

b�b�nb-?

+4� h{s+��-?w@,,= +:1:,

Wkh udgrq dfwlylw| rq wkh fkdufrdo ruljlqdwlqj iurp wkh vrxufh lv dovr gl0uhfwo| uhodwhg wr wkh dfwlylw| ri wkh udgrq0ghfd| surgxfwv/ l1h1 wkhlu frxqw udwhQr+w@, +fsv, lq wkh �0ud| vshfwuxp/ dvvxplqj wkdw wkh �0ud| ghwhfwru kdv dqryhudoo +lqfoxglqj eudqfklqj udwlrv, h�flhqf| #�=

D-?+w@, @�rE|@�� = +:1;,

Iru dgvruswlrq wlphv w@ +v, orqjhu wkdq 4 krxu dqg zdlwlqj wlphv w� +v, orqjhuwkdq 6 krxuv/ wkh iroorzlqj fruuhfwlrqv fdq eh dssolhg ^47<` zkhq fdofxodwlqj wkhfrxqw udwh iurp wkh qxpehu ri frxqwv qr lq wkh �0ud| vshfwuxp fruuhvsrqglqj wrwkh vrxufh dw wkh hqg ri wkh dgvruswlrq shulrg=

Qr+w@, @?r|6

b-?|6 i TEb-?|��3i TE3b-?|6� = +:1<,


Lq doo phdvxuhphqwv rqh kdv dovr wr dffrxqw iru wkh edfnjurxqg ri wkh �0ud|vshfwurphwhu dqg wkh fkdufrdo +frqwulexwlrq ghqrwhg e| wkh vxevfulsw ej,1 Wkxv/wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri frxqwv lq wkh �0ud| vshfwuxp/ q|J| +frxqwv,/ lv wkh vxp ri wkhvrxufh frqwulexwlrq/ qr +frxqwv,/ dqg wkdw ri wkh edfnjurxqg/ qK} +frxqwv,=

q|J| @ qr . qK}> +:143,

ru/ uhzulwwhq lq whupv ri frxqw udwhv/ iru d phdvxulqj wlph/ w6 +v,/ fruuhvsrqglqjwr d fhuwdlq dgvruswlrq wlph w@/ Ht1 :143 ehfrphv=

Q|J|+w@, @?r|6

.?K}|6

@ Qr+w@, .QK}= +:144,

Wkh edfnjurxqg frqwulexwlrq/ QK} +fsv,/ lv ghwhuplqhg iurp d vhsdudwh�0ud| phdvxuhphqw ri d iuhvk +qr dgvruswlrq, vwdqgdug dprxqw ri dfwlydwhg fkdu0frdo1

Qh{w/ wzr sduwlfxodu fdvhv duh frqvlghuhg= d frqwulexwlrq wr wkh udgrq dfwlylw|rq wkh fkdufrdo ruljlqdwlqj iurp wkh vhwxs rqo| dqg dq dgglwlrqdo frqwulexwlrqiurp d udgrq0surgxflqj vrxufh +fdoleudwlrq vrxufh ru vdpsoh,1

41 Vhwxs frqwulexwlrq

Wklv frqwulexwlrq lv ghwhuplqhg iurp d eodqn phdvxuhphqw/ l1h1 d udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phdvxuhphqw zlwk qr vrxufh hqforvhg lq wkh h{kdodwlrq yroxph1 Wkhrqo| udgrq0surgxflqj vrxufh lq wklv fdvh lv wkh vlolfdjho froxpq1 Dvvxplqj wkdwwkh dgvruswlrq/ zdlwlqj dqg phdvxulqj wlphv ri wklv phdvxuhphqw duh ghqrwhg e|wf@/ w

f� dqg wf6/ uhvshfwlyho|/ dqg h{suhvvlqj wkh qxpehu ri frxqwv ruljlqdwlqj iurp

wkh vhwxs/ qf/ lq whupv ri wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri frxqwv lq wkh �0ud| vshfwuxp/ qf|J|/zklfk lv wkh phdvxudeoh txdqwlw|/ Ht1 :1< wudqvirupv lqwr=

Qf+wf@, @?f

|f6

b-?|f6 i TEb-?|

f��

�3i TE3b-?|f6�

@�?f|J||f6�QK}

�b-?|

f6 i TEb-?|

f��

�3i TE3b-?|f6�= +:145,

Wkh udgrq surgxfwlrq ri wkh vhwxs/ Ure|�R +Et v3�,/ fdq eh fdofxodwhg iurp Ht1 :1:

dqg Ht1 :1;=

Ure|�R @b-?Eb�nb-?�

b�E�3i TE3b-?|f@��|J|E|f@�>�� = +:146,

Lqvhuwlqj qrz Ht1 :145/ Ht1 :146 ehfrphv=

Ure|�R @ qfb-?Eb�nb-?�

�b�

b-? i TEb-?|f��

E�3i TE3b-?|f6��E�3i TE3b-?|f@�� @

@ +?f|J||f6�QK},

b-?Eb�nb-?��b�

b-? i TEb-?|f��

E�3i TE3b-?|f6��E�3i TE3b-?|f@�� > +:147,


zlwk # @ �#�/ wkh frpelqhg dgvruswlrq dqg frxqwlqj h�flhqf|151 Vdpsoh frqwulexwlrq

Wkh vdph surfhgxuh dv iru wkh fdvh ri wkh vhwxs frqwulexwlrq dssolhv dovr wrwkh fdofxodwlrq ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phdvxuhphqw ri d vdpsoh +l1h1 d exloglqjpdwhuldo,/ zlwk wkh rqo| gl�huhqfh wkdw wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri frxqwv lq wkh �0ud|vshfwuxp/ qK6|J| / zloo lqfoxgh lq dgglwlrq wr wkh frqwulexwlrq iurp wkh edfnjurxqg/qK6K} / dqg wkh vdpsoh/ qK6/ wkdw ri wkh vhwxs/ q

K6re|�R/ l1h1=

qK6|J| @ qK6 . qK6re|�R . qK6K} =

Dv wkh edfnjurxqg frxqw udwh/ QK}/ lv frqvwdqw/ Ht1 :1< lv zulwwhq dv=

QK6+wK6@ , @ ?K6

|K66

b-?|K66 i TEb-?|

K6� �

�3i TE3b-?|K66 �

@�?K6|J||K66

�QK}

�b-?|

K66 i TEb-?|

K6� �

�3i TE3b-?|K66 �� qK6re|�R

b-? i TEb-?|K6� �

�3i TE3b-?|K66 �> +:148,

zlwk wK6@ / wK6� dqg wK66 / wkh dgvruswlrq/ zdlwlqj dqg phdvxulqj wlphv/ uhvshfwlyho|1Wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ri exloglqj pdwhuldo/ UK6 +Et v3�, lv rewdlqhg e| frp0

elqlqj Htv1 :1:/ :1; dqg :148=

UK6 @ qK6b-?Eb�nb-?�

�b�

b-? i TEb-?|K6� �

E�3i TE3b-?|K66 ��E�3i TE3b-?|K6@ ��

@�?K6|J||K66

�QK}

�b-?Eb�nb-?�

�b�

b-? i TEb-?|K6� �

E�3i TE3b-?|K66 ��E�3i TE3b-?|K6@ ��

qK6re|�Rb-?Eb�nb-?�

�b�

b-? i TEb-?|K6� �

E�3i TE3b-?|K66 ��E�3i TE3b-?|K6@ ��= +:149,

Wkh vhfrqg whup lq Ht1 :149 uhsuhvhqwv wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ri wkh vhwxs/Ure|�R +Et v3�,/ wkdw lv d frqvwdqw vrxufh dqg lw lv lqghshqghqw rq wkh dgvruswlrq/zdlwlqj dqg phdvxulqj wlphv1 Wkxv/ Ht1 :149 uhgxfhv wr=

UK6 @�?K6|J||K66

�QK}

�b-?Eb�nb-?�

�b�

b-? i TEb-?|K6� �

E�3i TE3b-?|K66 ��E�3i TE3b-?|K6@ ��Ure|�R=

+:14:,

Uhohdvh ri udgrq iurp d vdpsoh fdq eh txdqwl�hg lq pdq| gl�huhqw zd|v1 Wrdyrlg frqixvlrq zh zloo dgkhuh wr wkh iroorzlqj gh�qlwlrqv dqg qrwdwlrqv1

U = Udgrq0uhohdvh udwh +Et v3�, ri d vdpsoh/ gh�qhg dv wkh wrwdo dfwlylw|ri udgrq shu xqlw wlph wkdw ohdyhv wkh vxuidfh ri wkh vdpsoh>

Hr = H{kdodwlrq udwh shu xqlw ri vxuidfh +Etp32 v3�, ri d vdpsoh/ gh�qhgdv wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh glylghg e| wkh duhd/ V +p2,/ ri wkh udgrq h{kdolqj

:15 QJG0NYL udgrq0uhohdvh udwh vhwxs 44:

vxuidfhv ri wkh whvw fxeh

Hr @-7> +:14;,

H6 = H{kdodwlrq udwh shu xqlw ri pdvv +Etnj3� v3�, ri d vdpsoh/ gh�qhgdv wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh glylghg e| wkh pdvv/ p +nj,/ ri wkh vdpsoh

H6 @ -6= +:14<,

,�U�i?U) U@*U�*@|�L?

Iru dq h{kdodwlrq phdvxuhphqw zlwk d fdoleudwhg udgrq vrxufh ri nqrzq surgxf0wlrq/ US +Et v

3�,/ wkh udgrq surgxfwlrq ri wkh vhwxs/ Ure|�R/ lv vr pxfk vpdoohu+Ure|�R � US,/ wkdw wklv whup lv qhjohfwhg1 Wkh udgrq surgxfwlrq ri wkh vrxufhlv fdofxodwhg dffruglqj wr Ht1 :14: dv=

US @�?S|J||S6�QK}

�b-?Eb�nb-?�

�b�

b-? i TEb-?|S��

E�3i TE3b-?|S6��E�3i TE3b-?|S@�� = +:153,

Iurp wklv htxdwlrq dqg nqrzlqj doo wkh rwkhu txdqwlwlhv/ wkh frpelqhg h�flhqf|/# fdq eh ghwhuplqhg=

# @

�?S|J||S6

3�K}

�-Sn-re|�R

b-?Eb�nb-?�b�

b-? i TEb-?|S��

E�3i TE3b-?|S6��E�3i TE3b-?|S@�� > +:154,

zlwk wS@/ wS� dqg wS6 wkh dgvruswlrq/ zdlwlqj dqg phdvxulqj wlphv ri wkh phdvxuh0

phqw/ uhvshfwlyho|1

�@*U�*@|�L? Lu �?Uih|@�?|�it

Wkh xqfhuwdlqw| lq udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv lv hvwlpdwhg iurp wkh ydoxhv ri wkh vhwxsfrqwulexwlrq +Ht1 :147, dqg wkh exloglqj0pdwhuldo vdpsoh +Ht1 :14:,1 Lq wkhvhhvwlpdwlrqv zh qhjohfw xqfhuwdlqwlhv dvvrfldwhg zlwk wlph phdvxuhphqwv +w@/ w�/w6, dqg zlwk ghwhuplqdwlrq ri wkh yhqwlodwlrq udwh +��, ehfdxvh wkh| duh vpdoo+?316(,1 Lq erwk fdvhv/ wkh xqfhuwdlqw| lq wkh h�flhqf| ri wkh phdvxuhphqwphwkrg lv qrw d vwdwlvwlfdo xqfhuwdlqw| dvvrfldwhg zlwk rqh fdoleudwlrq phdvxuh0phqw exw wkh xqfhuwdlqw| uh�hfwlqj qrq0uhsurgxflelolw| lq fdoleudwlrq phdvxuh0phqwv1 Lq vhfwlrq :1516 lw lv vkrzq wkdw gxh wr qrq0uhsurgxflelolw| �#@# lvdssur{lpdwho| 405(/ zkhuhdv wkh xqfhuwdlqw| gxh wr frxqwlqj vwdwlvwlfv lv rqh ruwzr rughuv ri pdjqlwxgh vpdoohu1

41 Vhwxs frqwulexwlrq

44; H{shulphqwdo surfhgxuhv

Iurp Ht1 :147 wkh iroorzlqj h{suhvvlrq iru wkh xqfhuwdlqw| �Ure|�R +Et v3�,

lq Ure|�R lv rewdlqhg=

�{-re|�R

-re|�R

�2@ d2

597�{�

�

�2.

3C{

�?f|J||f6

3�K}

�?f|J||f6

3�K}

4D

26:8 > +:155,

zlwk d @ b-?Eb�nb-?�b�

b-? i TEb-?|f��

E�3i TE3b-?|f6��E�3i TE3b-?|f@�� dqg��?f|J||f6�QK}

��2@�{?f|J||f6

�2. +�QK},

2 = +:156,

Wkh vhfrqg whup rq wkh uljkw kdqg vlgh ri Ht1 :155 lv dvvrfldwhg zlwk frxqwlqjvwdwlvwlfv1 Ehfdxvh lq wkh ghfd| ri udgrq surjhq| �0ud|v duh hplwwhg lq fdvfdghv/qrw doo ghwhfwhg hyhqwv zloo eh lqghshqghqw1 D pruh vrsklvwlfdwhg vwdwlvwlfdohydoxdwlrq zrxog lq sulqflsoh eh qhhghg/ exw gxh wr wkh uhodwlyho| orz ghwhfwlrqh�flhqf| ri wkh �0ud| vshfwurphwhu/ wkh hyhqwv duh yluwxdoo| xqfrxsohg dqg wkhSrlvvrq glvwulexwlrq lv d jrrg dssur{lpdwlrq1 Xvlqj wklv dssur{lpdwlrq/ zhzulwh=

�qf|J| @tqf|J|> +:157,

+�QK},2 @

�I?K}

|K}6

�2= +:158,

51 Vdpsoh frqwulexwlrq

E| xvlqj wkh qrwdwlrq e @ b-?Eb�nb-?�b�

b-? i TEb-?|K6� �

E�3i TE3b-?|K66 ��E�3i TE3b-?|K6@ ��/ Ht1 :14:

fdq eh vlpsol�hg wr=

UK6 @ K�

�?K6|J||K66

�QK}

��Ure|�R= +:159,

Wkh fruuhvsrqglqj xqfhuwdlqw| lv fdofxodwhg dv=

+�Ure|�R,2 @ e2

5997�{��

�2.

3EC

{

#?K6|J||K66

3�K}

$

?K6|J||K66

3�K}

4FD

26::8� +�Ure|�R,

2 >

zlwk �Ure|�R ghwhuplqhg iurp Ht1 :155 dqg

��?K6|J||K66

�QK}

��2@�{?K6|J||K66

�2. +�QK},

2 @

�s?K6|J||K66

�2

.�I

?K}

|K}6

�2=

:15 QJG0NYL udgrq0uhohdvh udwh vhwxs 44<

Wkh xqfhuwdlqwlhv lqHr +Etp32 v3�, dqgH6 +Etnj3� v3�, gh�qhg e| Ht1 :14;

dqg Ht1 :14</ uhvshfwlyho|/ duh hvwlpdwhg dv=

�{..

�2@

�{-K6

-K6

�2.�{77

�2> +:15:,

�{-6

-6

�2@

�{-K6

-K6

�2.�{66

�2> +:15;,

zkhuh wkh xqfhuwdlqwlhv lq wkh ghwhuplqdwlrq ri wkh h{kdodwlrq vxuidfh ri wkhvdpsoh V�V +p2, dqg ri wkh pdvvp�p +nj, duh hvwlpdwhg iurp xqfhuwdlqwlhvlq phdvxuhphqwv ri vdpsoh glphqvlrqv dqg zhljkw/ uhvshfwlyho| +Ht1 F15;,1

Fdoleudwlrq phdvxuhphqwv

D 5315 nEt udgrq hpdqdwlrq vrxufhe lv fxuuhqwo| xvhg wr fdoleudwh wkh QJG0NYL h{kdodwlrq vhwxs1 Udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phdvxuhphqwv duh xvxdoo| frqgxfwhgiru vhyhudo dgvruswlrq wlphv/ w@1 Wkh fkdufrdo dgvruehuv duh phdvxuhg rq wkhvshfwurphwhuv iru d qxpehu ri zdlwlqj wlphv/ w�1 Wkh h�flhqflhv duh fdofxodwhgdffruglqj wr Ht1 :154 dv wkh zhljkwhg dyhudjh ri wkh ydoxhv iru hdfk dgvruswlrqwlph1

Wkh �0ud| vshfwurphwhuv duh hqhuj| fdoleudwhg iurp wkh vljql�fdqw shdnv riudgrq gdxjkwhuv lq wkh vshfwuxp1 Wkh hqhuj| dqg shdn uhvroxwlrq duh dxwrpdw0lfdoo| fdoleudwhg lq d ohdvw0vtxduhv �w wr wkh gdwd e| d fxelf sro|qrpldo1 Wkhhqhuj| fdoleudwlrq fxuyh lv doprvw olqhdu1

Wkh vshfwurphwhuv V� dqg V2 zhuh fdoleudwhg vhsdudwho|1 D vxppdu| rqedfnjurxqg/ eodqn dqg h�flhqf| phdvxuhphqwv ri erwk vshfwurphwhuv lv jlyhqlq Wdeoh :141 Wkh edfnjurxqg dqg h�flhqf| ri vshfwurphwhu V� duh orzhu dqg

Wdeoh :14= �@*�Mh@|�L? T@h@4i|iht uLh |�i |�L ��h@) tTiU|hL4i|iht�

Vshfwurphwhu QK} Ure|�R #v3� 433S Et v3� 0

V� 3=89: 3=339 5=< 3=7 3=494 3=337V2 4=657 3=345 5=; 3=7 3=596 3=337

dprxqw wr derxw 73( dqg 93(/ uhvshfwlyho|/ ri wkh fruuhvsrqglqj ydoxhv iruV21 Wkh ydoxhv ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh frqwulexwlrq ri wkh vhwxs fdofxodwhgvhsdudwho| rq wkh wzr ghwhfwruv duh htxdo zlwklq wkh xqfhuwdlqwlhv1 Fdoleudwlrq

e�)*L?c 4L_i* +��2fff�( tih�@* ?�4Mih �Sb�


surfhgxuhv duh uhjxoduo| uhshdwhg wr prqlwru srvvleoh fkdqjhv lq wkh fdoleudwlrqsdudphwhuv dqg wr dsso| surshu fruuhfwlrqv1

.�2�e �UU�h@U) Lu |�i 4i@t�hi4i?| 4i|�L_

Wkh dffxudf|D ri d phdvxuhphqw phwkrg xvhg lq d fhuwdlq oderudwru| lv gh�qhg dvwkh forvhqhvv ri djuhhphqw ehwzhhq d phdvxuhg uhvxow dqg dq dffhswhg uhihuhqfhydoxh1 Dffxudf| lv qrupdoo| h{suhvvhg lq whupv ri suhflvlrq dqg wuxhqhvv1

Suhflvlrq lv wkh forvhqhvv ri djuhhphqw ehwzhhq lqghshqghqw phdvxuhphqwuhvxowv xqghu suhvfulehg frqglwlrqv1 Wuxhqhvv lv wkh forvhqhvv ri djuhhphqw eh0wzhhq wkh dyhudjh ydoxh rewdlqhg iurp d odujh vhulhv ri phdvxuhphqw uhvxowv dqgdq dffhswhg uhihuhqfh ydoxh1

Lq jhqhudo/ wzr nlqgv ri suhvfulehg frqglwlrqv iru suhflvlrq duh gh�qhg1

Uhshdwdelolw| frqglwlrqv= frqglwlrqv zkhuh lqghshqghqw phdvxuhphqw uhvxowvduh rewdlqhg zlwk wkh vdph phwkrg rq lghqwlfdo vdpsohv lq wkh vdph oderudwru|e| wkh vdph rshudwru xvlqj wkh vdph htxlsphqw lq d vkruw shulrg ri wlph1

Uhsurgxflelolw| frqglwlrqv= frqglwlrqv zkhuh lqghshqghqw phdvxuhphqw uh0vxowv duh rewdlqhg zlwk wkh vdph phwkrg rq lghqwlfdo vdpsohv lq wkh vdph ode0rudwru| e| gl�huhqw rshudwruv xvlqj gl�huhqw htxlsphqw lq d orqjhu shulrg riwlph1

+iTi@|@M�*�|) @?_ hiThL_�U�M�*�|)

Dv sduw ri wkh txdolw| frqwuro dqg dvvxudqfh ri wkh QJG0NYL udgrq0uhohdvhvhwxs/ wkh udgrq uhohdvh ri d skrvskrj|svxp eorfn +frqwdlqlqj dssur{lpdwho|7;3 Et nj3� ri 22SUd dqg zlwk glphqvlrqv :fp{46 fp{ 5718 fp, lv shulrglfdoo|phdvxuhg1 Ilj1 :15 vkrzv wkh uhvxowv ri wkhvh phdvxuhphqwv +h{suhvvhg dv vxuidfhh{kdodwlrq udwhv, lq d fkurqrorjlfdo rughu1 Uhshdwdelolw| iru phdvxuhphqwv dwrqh gdwh lv 4 wr 7(1 Wkh uhsurgxflelolw| ydoxh +vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq glylghg e|xqzhljkwhg phdq ri wkh phdq ydoxhv ri hdfk vhulhv, fdofxodwhg iurp doo phdvxuh0phqwv lv 7(1 Wkhvh ydoxhv vkrz wkdw wkh uhvxowv jhqhudwhg e| wkh QJG0NYLudgrq0uhohdvh udwh vhwxs duh uhodwlyho| vwdeoh ryhu d orqj shulrg ri wlph dqg ixu0wkhupruh duh qrw d�hfwhg e| xvlqj gl�huhqw vshfwurphwhuv1 Dq| yduldwlrqv wkdwzloo eh ixuwkhu revhuyhg lq udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phdvxuhphqwv duh qrw gxh wr lqvwd0elolw| sureohpv lq wkh phdvxuhphqw phwkrg1

DA�i _i�?�|�L?t @_LT|i_ �? |��t tiU|�L? @hi �? u�** @}hii4i?| ��|� |�i W5��D.2D tih�it deo�


Date of measurement

E(m

Bq

m-2

s-1 )

2.25

2.50

2.75

3.00

S2

S1

S1S1

S2

S2

S1

Feb-97

Ap

r-97

Au

g-97

Ap

r-98

Au

g-98

Mar-99

n=7

n=4

n=1

n=5

n=5n=3

n=3

Iljxuh :15= +@_L? i �@*@|�L? h@|ic Hrc Lu T�LtT�L})Tt�4 M*LU! @t @ u�?U|�L? Lu _@|i Lu

4i@t�hi4i?|� 5)4ML* q �?_ih |�i _@|@ TL�?| �?_�U@|it |�i ?�4Mih Lu 4i@t�hi4i?|t� 5)4ML*t

5� @?_ 52 @ML�i |�i _@|@ TL�?|t _i?L|i |�i tTiU|hL4i|ih |�@| �@t �ti_� ,hhLh M@ht L? �?_��_�@*

_@|@ TL�?|t @hi i |ih?@* �?Uih|@�?|�it Lu |�i �i�}�|i_ 4i@? Lu |�i q 4i@t�hi4i?|t� 5L*�_ @?_

_L||i_ *�?it �?_�U@|i �i�}�|i_ 4i@? @?_ t|@?_@h_ _i��@|�L? Lu 4i@t�hi4i?|tc hitTiU|��i*)�

Ah�i?itt

Wuxhqhvv ri d phdvxuhphqw phwkrg lv txdqwl�hg dv oderudwru| eldv> lw lv h{suhvvhgdv wkh gl�huhqfh ehwzhhq wkh +phdq ri, phdvxuhg ydoxhv dqg dq dffhswhg uhihu0hqfh ydoxh1 Lq fdvh ri udgrq0uhohdvh phdvxuhphqwv qr exloglqj pdwhuldov zlwkfhuwl�hg uhihuhqfh ydoxhv duh dydlodeoh1 D srvvlelolw| lv wr xvh wkh uhvxowv ri wkhh�flhqf| fdoleudwlrqv dv dq lqglfdwlrq iru wkh wuxhqhvv ri wkh phwkrg1 Dv wkhfdoleudwlrqv jlyh lghqwlfdo uhvxowv zlwklq 4180518(/ li zh frqvlghu wkh fdoleudwlrqvrxufh dv d cfhuwl�hg uhihuhqfh pdwhuldo*/ wkh oderudwru| eldv zloo dovr eh lq wklvudqjh1 Dqrwkhu zd| wr dvvhv oderudwru| eldv lv wr frpsduh uhvxowv ri phdvxuh0phqwv rq lghqwlfdo pdwhuldov e| wzr ru pruh lqghshqghqw phdvxuhphqw phwkrgv+lqwhufrpsdulvrq h{huflvhv,1

Rqh vxfk h{huflvh/ lq zklfk 54 Hxurshdq oderudwrulhv sduwlflsdwhg zdv ru0jdqlvhg e| wkh Qxfohdu Hqjlqhhulqj Vhfwlrq ri wkh Qdwlrqdo Whfkqlfdo Xqlyhu0vlw| ri Dwkhqv +QHV0QWXD, ^479`1 Wkuhh frqfuhwh vodev zlwk glphqvlrqv ri


Wdeoh :15= +it�*|t Lu |�i �?|ihUL4T@h�tL? i ihU�ti Lh}@?�ti_ M) �,5��AN�1 6Lh i@U� Lu |�i

|�hii UL?Uhi|i t@4T*it |�i @�ih@}i �@*�i @?_ �|t t|@?_@h_ _i��@|�L?c @u|ih i U*�t�L? Lu |�hii

L�|*�ihtc @hi �?_�U@|i_ �? |�i tiUL?_ UL*�4? @?_ |�i *�4�|t Lu |�i 4i@t�h�?} h@?}i �? |�i *@t|

UL*�4?�frqfuhwh vshflphq U +pEt v3�, udqjh +pEt v3�,

4 41:315 41705145 417314 41504196 416317 3170513

63{63{43 fp� dqg dssur{lpdwh pdvv ri 53 nj zhuh suhsduhg1 Wkh vshflphqvzhuh suhsduhg iurp wkh vdph djjuhjdwhv qdpho|/ 54( fhphqw/ 54( judyho/ 4<(zdwhu dqg 44( �| dvk +pdvv shufhqwdjhv,1 Hdfk ri wkh vshflphqv zhuh glv0sdwfkhg dffruglqj wr d urxqg0urelq vfkhph wr d vxejurxs ri 7 wr 43 ri wkh 54sduwlflsdqwv1 Wkh uhvxowv +lq pEt v3�, duh vxppdulvhg lq Wdeoh :151 QJG0NYLfrqgxfwhg phdvxuhphqwv rq vshflphq 4 dqg uhsruwhg 41:8313< pEt v3� zklfklv lq yhu| jrrg djuhhphqw zlwk wkh phdq ydoxh iru wklv vdpsoh1

D vhfrqg lqwhufrpsdulvrq zdv rujdqlvhg lq 4<<< e| QPl +Qhghuodqgv Phhwlqvwl0wxxw, lq wkh iudphzrun ri uhvhdufk surjudp Vwudwhjr2VSQ0YURP1 Wzr frqfuhwhfxehv +48{48{48 fp�, dqg irxu j|svxp eorfnv +5718{5316{:13 fp�, zhuh suhsduhg1Wkhvh vshflphqv zhuh vhqw wr irxu oderudwrulhv iru udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phdvxuh0phqwv dffruglqj wr wkh prvw uhfhqw yhuvlrq ri wkh Gxwfk qrupdwlyh surwrfroQHQ89<< ^65`1 Wkh rughu ri pdjqlwxgh dv vshfl�hg e| QPl dqg wkh uhvxowv riwkh phdvxuhphqwv ri QJG0NYL duh lqglfdwhg lq Wdeoh :161 Wkh ydoxhv ri doo

Wdeoh :16= +it�*|t Lu |�i �� ?|ihUL4T@h�tL?� �L|� h@_L?�hi*i@ti h@|it 4i@t�hi_ M) �B#�

kVW EUL*�4? ��i� @?_ U@*U�*@|i_ @t @�ih@}it E@u|ih i U*�t�L? Lu @? L�|*�ih� Lu @** |�i 4i@t�hi�

4i?|t ThL��_i_ M) |�i T@h|�U�T@|�?} �?t|�|�|it EUL*�4? |�hii� @hi �? |�i h@?}i }��i? M) ��

EUL*�4? |�L�� A�i h@?}i Lu |�i 4i@t�hi_ �@*�it uLh i@U� tTiU�4i? �t UL?|@�?i_ �? UL*�4? uL�h�

Vdpsoh frgh U +QPl, U@�ih@}i udqjh U +QJG,�Et v3� �Et v3� �Et v3� �Et v3�

Frqfuhwh :94 A 43 857 7<089 836Frqfuhwh :97 A 43 9373 85093 856J|svxp D ? 43 64 4190714 54J|svxp E A 433 45<: 4330467 466:J|svxp F A 633 76647 4<:0777 77353J|svxp G A 633 78363 57507:; 7;353

:16 Jdppd0ud| vshfwurphwu| 456

udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv uhsruwhg e| QJG0NYL zhuh lq wkh udqjh d0sulrul lqglfdwhg e|QPl dqg dovr frpsduhg zhoo wr wkh �qdo uhsruwhg phdvxuhphqwv1

Zh fdq frqfoxgh wkdw wkh QJG0NYL phwkrg iru phdvxuhphqw ri udgrq0uhohdvhudwhv kdv ehhq vkrzq wr eh d suhflvh/ uholdeoh/ urexvw dqg uhsurgxfleoh phwkrg1Wkh phwkrg kdv d frxsoh ri glvdgydqwdjhv1 Wkhvh duh d uhodwlyho| orz h�flhqf|+frpsduhg wr d phwkrg xvlqj Oltxlg Vflqwloodwlrq Frxqwlqj wkh h�flhqf| lv didfwru 43048 orzhu, ^47<` dqg wkh orqj phdvxulqj wlph ri dowrjhwkhu 7 wr 8 gd|v+vlqfh h�flhqf| lv rqh fdxvh iru orqj phdvxulqj wlph,1

.�� B@44@�h@) tTiU|hL4i|h)

Wkh dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv ri 22SUd duh ghwhuplqhg yld �0ud| vshfwurphwu|1 Wklvwhfkqltxh uhtxluhv vhdolqj ri vdpsohv lq d udgrq0wljkw frqwdlqhu wr hqvxuh vhfxoduhtxloleulxp +hvwdeolvkhg diwhu d shulrg ri wkuhh zhhnv, ehwzhhq 22SUd/ 222Uq dqgudgrq ghfd| surgxfwv +vhh dovr vhfwlrq 41414,1 Wkh 22SUd frqfhqwudwlrqv duh gh0gxfhg iurp wkh frxqw udwhv ri �0ud|v hplwwhg e| wkh udgrq ghfd| surgxfwv 2�eEl+93</ 4453 dqg 4:97 nhY, dqg 2�eSe +5<8 dqg 685 nhY,1 Doo 22SUd0dfwlylw| frq0fhqwudwlrqv ghwhuplqhg lq wklv zrun zhuh phdvxuhg iru d 4o Pdulqhool ehdnhuS jh0rphwu| rq wkh V2 vshfwurphwhu1 Wklv jhrphwu| kdv ehhq fdoleudwhg xvlqj qxfolghfrfnwdlov zlwk fhuwl�hg dfwlylwlhv1 Fruuhfwlrqv iru vhoi devruswlrq dqg edfnjurxqgudgldwlrq ri wkh vhwxs kdyh ehhq dssolhg1

Wkh frqfhqwudwlrq ri 2�2Wk fdq eh dovr ghwhuplqhg e| xvlqj wkh �0ud|v iurpwkh ghfd| surgxfwv 2fHWo/ 2�2Se/ 2�2El dqg 22HDf1 Wkh efN dfwlylw| lv ghwhuplqhgxvlqj wkh 4794nhY �0ud|1

Wkh udgrq wljkwqhvv ri wkh Pdulqhool ehdnhu zdv whvwhg e| �oolqj wkh ehdnhuzlwk sro|vw|uhqh sdfnlqj fklsv/ lqvhuwlqj udgrq0odghq dlu ehwzhhq wkh fklsv dqglpphgldwho| forvlqj lw zlwk d olg +glvf, gluhfwo| rq wrs ri wkh vdpsoh1 Wkh mrlqwehwzhhq wkh olg dqg wkh ehdnhu zdv vhdohg zlwk dfu|olf sdvwh1 Diwhu wkuhh krxuv+wr doorz udgrq wr htxloleudwh zlwk lwv vkruw0olyhg ghfd| surgxfwv, wkh frqwdlqhuzdv frxqwhg rq wkh jdppd vshfwurphwhu dqg 55 frqvhfxwlyh 7 krxuv0vshfwud zhuhuhfrughg1 Wkh qhw frxqw udwh/ U+w, +fsv,/ ri wkh 93< nhY skrwrshdn ri 2�eEl lqhdfk vshfwuxp zdv fdofxodwhg dqg �wwhg e| wkh ixqfwlrq=

U+w, @ U+3,h3Eb-?nb,�|> +:15<,

zkhuh �-? lv wkh ghfd| frqvwdqw ri udgrq dqg �, wkh ohdn sdudphwhu1 Wkh iuhhsdudphwhuv lq wkh �w duh �, dqg U+3,1 Wkh uhvxowv ri wkh �w duh vkrzq lq Ilj1 :161

S�L_i* 2�� E4@|ih�@* �,� T�hU�@ti_ uhL4 WtL|LTi? #�i?t| �i?i*� �


Wkh gdwd duh zhoo �w +"2 @ 4=5, e| dq h{srqhqwldo zlwk d fxuyh wkdw voljkwo|ghyldwhv iurp wkh fxuyh h{shfwhg iurp udgrq ghfd| rqo|1 Iurp wkh ixqfwlrq/ dydoxh ri +31843136,�433� k3�iru wkh ohdn sdudphwhu/ �,/ zdv ghulyhg1 Wkh udwlrb,b-?

@313: lqglfdwhv wkdw wkh frqwdlqhu pd| eh frqvlghuhg udgrq wljkw iru doosudfwlfdo sxusrvhv1

time (h)0 20 40 60 80

ln(R

(t))

(R

(t)

in c

ps)

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

Iljxuh :16= +it�*|t Lu |�i h@_L? |�}�|?itt uLh ti@*i_ � o�@h�?i**� Mi@!ih� ,hhLh M@ht EUL?|@�?i_

�?t�_i |�i _@|@ TL�?|t� hiThiti?| �?Uih|@�?|�it E�� _�i |L UL�?|�?} t|@|�t|�Ut �? t@4T*i @?_

M@U!}hL�?_� A�i tL*�_ *�?i �t @ *i@t|�t^�@hit �| E"2 @ 4=5� Lu ,^� .�2b |L |�i _@|@ TL�?|t� A�i_@t�i_ *�?i �t |�i i TL?i?|�@* _iU@) i TiU|i_ �? U@ti Lu h@_L? _iU@) L?*) E�, @ 3��

Wr hvwlpdwh wkh huuru wkdw pd| eh lqgxfhg lq wkh ghwhuplqdwlrq ri wkh 2�2Udfrqfhqwudwlrq e| dvvxplqj qr udgrq ohdndjh/ wkh srvvleoh xqghuhvwlpdwh lq wkh22SUd frqfhqwudwlrq iru vdpsohv zlwk ydulrxv udgrq0hpdqdwlrq idfwruv kdv ehhqhydoxdwhg dv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh ohdndjh frqvwdqw ^478`1 Iru hpdqdwlrq idfwruv wkdwrffxu lq sudfwlfh +vpdoohu wkdq 318, lw lv hvwlpdwhg wkdw xvlqj wkh 4o Pdulqhoolfrqwdlqhu lq frpelqdwlrq zlwk wkh ghvfulehg vhdolqj whfkqltxh zloo xqghuhvwlpdwhwkh 22SUd0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrq e| 8( dw pd{lpxp1

.�e +@_L?�i4@?@|�L? ULi�U�i?|

Wkh udgrq0hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw fdq eh ghwhuplqhg lq wzr zd|v=

41 E| frpsdulqj wkh 22SUd0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv iru wkh vhdohg +FS,-@, dqg

:18 Srurvlphwhu 458

wkh xqvhdohg Pdulqhool frqwdlqhu +FJR-@,=

� @�S,-@3�

JR-@

�S,-@

= +:163,

51 E| ghwhuplqlqj wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ri wkh vdpsoh/ U +Et v3�,/ dffruglqjwr wkh surfhgxuh ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq :15 dqg wkh 22SUd0dfwlylw| frqfhqwud0wlrq/ F-@ +Et nj3�, e| �0ud| vshfwurvfrs| ri d forvhg vwdqgdug frqwdlqhu+vhfwlrq :16,=

� @ -�-@�b-?

> +:164,

zlwk P +nj, wkh gu| pdvv ri wkh vdpsoh +wkh pdvv ri wkh vdpsohv lv ghwhu0plqhg e| zhljklqj rq d vfdoh. zlwk dffxudf| ri 4j,1

Wkh vhfrqg zd| ri fdofxodwlqj wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw fdq eh dssolhg xqghuwkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw doo hpdqdwhg udgrq hvfdshv iurp wkh vdpsoh1 Wklv lv d ydolgdvvxpswlrq iru wkh fdvh ri vdqg vdpsohv zlwk d odujh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw1Iru vrolg exloglqj pdwhuldov vxfk dv frqfuhwh/ fuxvklqj wkh vshflphq lqwr vpdooslhfhv lv xvxdoo| vx�flhqw wr doorz doo udgrq wr hvfdsh1

.�D �LhLt�4i|ih

Srurvlw| lv dq lpsruwdqw wudqvsruw sdudphwhu lq srurxv phgld1 Doo frpprqphwkrgv wr ghwhuplqh srurvlw|/ duh edvhg rq wkh phdvxuhphqwv ri wkh exon yroxphdqg wkh yrlg yroxph1 Wkh| kdyh ehhq frpsduhg dqg hydoxdwhg vhyhudo wlphv ^458`1Qr jhqhudo frqfoxvlrq zdv gudzq dv wr zklfk lv wkh cehvw* phwkrg dqg lq sudfwlfhwkh vhohfwhg phdvxuhphqw phwkrg ghshqgv rq wkh surshuwlhv ri wkh pdwhuldo dqgrq wkh w|sh ri srurvlw| rqh zdqwv wr phdvxuh +wrwdo ru h�hfwlyh,1

Lq wkh iudphzrun ri rxu uhvhdufk rq udgrq wudqvsruw lq exloglqj pdwhuldov/ dwhvwlqj v|vwhp wr ghwhuplqh wkh srurvlw| ri frqfuhwh lv qhhghg1 Zh ghflghg wrxvh wkh jdv0h{sdqvlrq phwkrg dv lw lv idvw/ uhodwlyho| dffxudwh dqg qrq0ghvwuxfwlyh+vdpsohv duh dydlodeoh iru ixuwkhu whvwv,1 Dffruglqj wr olwhudwxuh/ frqfuhwh srurvlw|ydulhv iurp 5( +kljko| frpsdfwhg frqfuhwh, wr 93( +dhudwhg frqfuhwh,1 Wkh frq0fuhwh vdpsohv wr eh vwxglhg kdyh srurvlwlhv lq wkh udqjh 43053(1 D eulhi dqdo|vlvzloo eh suhvhqwhg wr rswlplvh wkh fkdudfwhulvwlf sdudphwhuv ri wkh phdvxuhphqwv|vwhp wr rewdlq d pd{lpxp vhqvlwlylw|1 Wkh fdoleudwlrq dqg wkh phdvxulqjsurfhgxuhv duh ghvfulehgH1

.�i||*ih AL*i_Lc |)Ti 5��2fff�HA�i TLhLt�|) _i|ih4�?i_ M) 4i@?t Lu |�i TLhLt�4i|ih �t |�i UL??iU|i_ TLhLt�|)� W| �t ?L|


.�D�� #itUh�T|�L? @?_ 4i@t�hi4i?| Th�?U�T*i

Wkh sulqflsoh ri wkh jdv0h{sdqvlrq phwkrg xvhv wkh Er|oh0Pdulrwwh jdv odz wkdwvwdwhv wkdw xqghu lvrwkhupdo frqglwlrqv/ wkh surgxfw ehwzhhq wkh suhvvxuh dqg wkhyroxph ri dq lghdo jdv lv d frqvwdqw ^455`1 Wklv odz fdq eh xvhg wr fdofxodwh wkhyroxph ri jdv frqwdlqhg lq wkh h�hfwlyh sruh0vsdfh ri d vshflphq1 Vfkhpdwlfdoo|/wklv sulqflsoh lv ghslfwhg lq Ilj1 :171 Wkh lghd lv wr sodfh wkh vdpsoh ri exonyroxph Yr dqg xqnqrzq sruh yroxph YR lq dq hqforvxuh zlwk nqrzq yroxphY�1 E| suhvvxulvlqj d jdv dqg wkhq h{sdqg lq dqrwkhu hqforvxuh zlwk d yhu|dffxudwho| nqrzq yroxph Y2/ wkh xqnqrzq yroxph +Yr, fdq wkhq eh ghgxfhg iurpd phdvxuhphqw ri wkh lqlwldo suhvvxuhv lq erwk hqforvxuhv ehiruh h{sdqglqj +s�> s2,dqg ri wkh htxloleulxp suhvvxuh lq wkh frpelqhg hqforvxuhv diwhu h{sdqglqj +se^,1E| zulwlqj wkh Er|oh0Pdulrwwh jdv odz iru wkh lqlwldo dqg �qdo frqglwlrqv lq

Vs, Vp

V1, p1

V2, p2

INITIAL

P

V1, peqV2, peq

FINAL

PVs, Vp

Iljxuh :17= 5U�i4@|�U _h@��?} Lu |�i }@t�i T@?t�L? 4i|�L_� S hiThiti?|t @? @MtL*�|i Thit�

t�hi |h@?t_�Uih� A�i �@*�i �t �ti_ |L LTi? @?_ U*Lti |�i �L*�4it�

Ilj1 :17/

s�+Y� � +Yr � YR,, . s2Y2 @ se^+Y� . Y2 � +Yr � YR,,> +:165,

wkh sruh yroxph ri wkh vdpsoh lv fdofxodwhg dv=

YR @ Yr � Y� .Re^3R2R�3Re^Y2= +:166,

|�i |L|@* TLhLt�|) @t TLhit ?L| UL??iU|i_ |L |�i TihUL*@|�?} ?i|�Lh! @hi ?L| @UUitti_ ��|� |�i}@t�i T@?t�L? 4i|�L_ @?_ @*tL ?L| |�i Tih4i@M�*�|) @t �i _L ?L| @TT*) @?) Thitt�hi }h@_�i?|t��ih4i@M�*�|) �@t @ �ht| Lh_ih hi*@|�L? ��|� TLhLt�|) M�| @*tL @UUL�?|t uLh |�i _�@4i|ih @?_ uLh4Lu |�i TLhit� 6Lh i @4T*ic uLh @ TLhL�t 4i_��4 ��|� T@h@**i*c U)*�?_h�U@* TLhit �|��tc @ �i**_i�?i_ TLhLt�|)� �L� ��** L?*) LUU�h �? |�i _�hiU|�L? Lu |�i TLhit ��*i |�i @TT*�U@|�L? Lu @Thitt�hi }h@_�i?| TihTi?_�U�*@h |L |�i TLhit ��** *i@_ |L @ 3ihL Tih4i@M�*�|)�

:18 Srurvlphwhu 45:

Dffruglqj wr Ht1 7143/ wkh srurvlw| ri wkh vdpsoh/ %/ lv wkhq fdofxodwhg=

% @ TRTr

@ 4� T�Tr

. Re^3R2R�3Re^

T2Tr= +:167,

.�D�2 �T|�4�t@|�L?

Wr rswlplvh wkh vhwxs/ wzr uhgxfhg yroxphv duh lqwurgxfhg=

wkh uhgxfhg vdpsoh yroxph = ur @TrT�> dqg +:168d,

wkh uhgxfhg vhfrqg fkdpehu yroxph = u2 @T2T�= +:168e,

Wkh htxloleulxp suhvvxuh lv dffruglqj wr Ht1 :165=

se^ @ s� .o2ER23R��

�3orno2n0or = +:169,

Wr rswlplvh wkh v|vwhp sdudphwhuv +u2> ur> s� > s2, zh gh�qh wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri wkh

phwkrg dv=

v @ YRe^Y0 @ oro2ER�3R2�

E�3orno2n0or� = +:16:,

Ehfdxvh wkh sdudphwhuv hqwhulqj wkh gh�qlwlrq ri vhqvlwlylw| duh lqghshqghqw +h1j1/wkh ydoxh ri s� grhv qrw ghwhuplqh wkh ydoxh iru s2/ ur ru u2, zh zloo vhsdudwho|dqdo|vh wkh lq�xhqfh ri hdfk rq wkh vhqvlwlylw|1 Zh wkxv qhhg wr vhw wkh ydoxhviru wkrvh sdudphwhuv wkdw kdyh sudfwlfdo +frqvwuxfwlyh, frqvwudlqwv +s�> s2> ur,dqg vhohfw wkh ydoxhv iru wkh uhpdlqlqj rqhv +u2, wr pd{lplvh wkh vhqvlwlylw|1� Lqlwldo suhvvxuhvHt1 :16: vkrzv wkdw wkh lqlwldo gl�huhqfh ehwzhhq wkh suhvvxuhv lq wkh wzr

fkdpehuv +s� � s2, vkrxog eh pd{lpdo1 Wklv gl�huhqfh lv olplwhg lq sudfwlfh e|wkh udqjh dqg dffxudf| ri wkh suhvvxuh wudqvgxfhub +3148( ri wkh uhdglqj, dqgwkh suhvvxuh vshfl�fdwlrqv ri wkh fkdpehuv Y� dqg Y21 Dffruglqj wr vshfl�fd0wlrqv/ wkh suhvvxuh vkrxog qrw h{fhhg 8edu +s� @ 8333pedu,1 Krzhyhu/ dw vxfkkljk suhvvxuh lw pljkw kdsshq wkdw zdoov lqlwldoo| vhsdudwlqj forvhg sruhv lqvlghwkh vdpsoh duh eurnhq dqg wkxv wkh frqqhfwhg srurvlw| zrxog eh lqfuhdvhg1 Wrsuhyhqw vxfk vlwxdwlrqv wr rffxu/ dq lqlwldo suhvvxuh ri 6 edu lv d uhdvrqdeoh fkrlfh1Wkh suhvvxuh s2 lq wkh vhfrqg fkdpehu htxdov wkh dwprvskhulf suhvvxuh xqghuqrupdo frqglwlrqv +4dwp ru <;91<5pedu,1� Uhgxfhg vdpsoh yroxph ur

b�@h@|hL? A)Ti 22f#�c �k5 W?t|h�4i?|tc ��?U�i?c Bih4@?)�

45; H{shulphqwdo surfhgxuhv

Ehfdxvh wkh yroxph Yr ri wkh vdpsoh fdq qrw eh odujhu wkdq wkh yroxph Y�ri wkh vdpsoh0fkdpehu/ ur olhv lq wkh udqjh ^3/4`1 Wkh orzhu hqg fruuhvsrqgv wrwkh vlwxdwlrq zlwk qr vdpsoh zkloh wkh xsshu hqg wr wkh fdvh zkhq wkh vdpsohrffxslhv wkh hqwluh yroxph ri wkh fkdpehu1 Wkh srurvlw| dovr wdnhv ydoxhv iurp 3wr 4 vxfk dv wkh ghqrplqdwru lq Ht1 :16: lv d prqrwrqrxvo| ghfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrq riur1 Shu wrwdo/ wkh vhqvlwlylw| lv d prqrwrqrxvo| lqfuhdvlqj ixqfwlrq/ wkxv lw uhdfkhvlwv pd{lpxp iru ur @ 41 Wklv phdqv wkdw wkh zkroh dprxqw ri jdv dydlodeoh lqwkh �uvw fkdpehu lv wkdw iurp wkh sruhv ri wkh vdpsoh1 Iru sudfwlfdo uhdvrqv/ dydoxh ri ur @ 3=; zloo eh frqvlghuhg1

� Uhgxfhg vhfrqg fkdpehu yroxph u2 dqg srurvlw| %

Wklv phwkrg dlpv iru kdylqj jrrg vhqvlwlylw| hvshfldoo| lq phdvxulqj orz0srurvlw| vdpsohv1 Sorwwlqj wkh qrupdolvhg vhqvlwlylw|/ r3��?Er�

�@%Er�3��?Er�dv ixqfwlrq

ri wkh uhgxfhg vhfrqg fkdpehu yroxph/ u2 +Ilj1 :18, iru gl�huhqw ydoxhv ri wkhsrurvlw|/ %/ zh rewdlq/ iru orz srurvlwlhv/ wkh pd{lpxp ri wkh vhqvlwlylw| iru u2ydoxhv ehwzhhq 315 dqg 31681 Lq wklv sorw d ydoxh ri 6333 pedu zdv vhohfwhg irus�/ s2 htxdov dwprvskhulf suhvvxuh dqg ur @ 3=;1

Wkh phwkrg lv prvw vhqvlwlyh li wkh yroxph durxqg wkh vdpsoh lq yroxph Y�lv dv vpdoo dv srvvleoh dqg li wkh wrwdo jdv yroxph +durxqg dqg lq wkh vdpsoh,lv dssur{lpdwho| htxdo wr wkh yroxph ri Y21 Wkh �uvw frqglwlrq zloo hqvxuh wkdwdoprvw doo h{sdqghg jdv lv iurp lqvlgh wkh exloglqj pdwhuldo dqg wkxv lqfuhdvhwkh vljqdo/ wkh vhfrqg frqglwlrq zloo hqvxuh wkdw wkh gl�huhqfh ehwzhhq s� dqgse^ lv rswlpdo1

� Vhohfwlrq ri wkh jdv w|shWkh surfhvv ri suhvvxuh htxdolvdwlrq diwhu suhvvxulvdwlrq ri wkh vdpsoh zloo

eh lqlwldwhg e| dgyhfwlyh �rz dqg jdv0jdv gl�xvlrq1 D ixoo htxloleudwlrq zrxogeh frpsohwhg e| jdv0vrolg gl�xvlrq dqg zrxog eh ri lqwhuhvw zkhq phdvxulqjwrwdo srurvlwlhv1 Diwhu suhvvxulvdwlrq +s�?,/ wkh suhvvxuh lq wkh vdpsoh0fkdpehulv h{shfwhg wr ghfuhdvh wr d ydoxh wkdw zloo eh frqvlghuhg wkh lqlwldo ydoxh iru s�1Sudfwlfdo lqyhvwljdwlrqv vkrz wkdw wkh htxloleudwlrq wlph lv lq wkh rughu ri 5 wr 8plq11 Qr vljql�fdqw yduldwlrqv +?8(, rffxuuhg lq wkh ydoxh ri wkh lqlwldo suhvvxuhiru d whvwlqj wlph ri 57 krxuv1 D vhfrqg frqfhuq wr eh wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw iruwkh vhohfwlrq ri wkh jdv w|sh lv wkh suhvhqfh ri ohdnv ehfdxvh wkh| lq�xhqfh wkhvwdelolvdwlrq ri wkh suhvvxuh lq wkh v|vwhp1 Jrrg dqg hdv| wr frqvwuxfw lvrodwhgv|vwhpv fdq eh uhdolvhg iru jdvhv zlwk prohfxodu pdvv forvh wr wkdw ri dlu +Q2/R2,1 Lq dgglwlrq/ wkhvh jdvhv kdyh d vpdoohu gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw wkdq kholxpru k|gurjhq/ wkxv/ wkh suredelolw| ri txlfn jdv0vrolg gl�xvlrq lv vpdoo1 Lq wkhsuhvhqw phwkrg qlwurjhq lv xvhg iru h{sdqvlrq/ dv lw vdwlvidfwru| ixo�oov wkh deryh

:18 Srurvlphwhu 45<

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1r2

sens

itiv

ity,

s

ε=0.01 ε=0.2 ε=0.5 ε=0.8 ε=1

Iljxuh :18= 5i?t�|��|) Lu |�i }@t�i T@?t�L? 4i|�L_ @t u�?U|�L? Lu |�i hi_�Ui_ tiUL?_�U�@4Mih

�L*�4ic u2c uLh �@h�L�t �@*�it Lu |�i TLhLt�|)c %� A�i ti?t�|��|) �t ?Lh4@*�ti_ uLh i@U� ti| Lu

�@*�it�

phqwlrqhg uhtxluhphqwv dqg kdv dq h{wud dgydqwdjh ri ehlqj uhdglo| dydlodeoh1

.�D�� @*�Mh@|�L?

Wr fdoleudwh wkh srurvlphwhu dfwxdoo| rqo| wkh yroxph Y2 ri wkh vhfrqg fkdpehuyroxph kdv wr eh ghwhuplqhg yhu| suhflvho|1 Wklv yroxph zdv ghwhuplqhg iurpwkh pdvv gl�huhqfhv ri wkh hpsw| dqg zdwhu0�oohg +xqwlo ryhu�rzlqj, yhvvho1 Wkhwhpshudwxuh ri wkh zdwhu lq wkh yhvvho zdv 4;�F wkxv/ d fruuhvsrqglqj zdwhu0ghqvlw| <<;1: njp3� zdv xvhg wr fdofxodwh wkh yroxph ri wkh vhfrqg fkdpehu/Y2 @944319417 fp�1 Wkh yroxph ri wkh f|olqgulfdo yhvvho/ Y� lv 45 o dqg kdvehhq exlow wklv zd| wr dffrpprgdwh vdpsohv ri ydulrxv glphqvlrqv1 Wr eulqjwkh ydoxh ri wkh uhgxfhg vdpsoh0fkdpehu yroxph/ u2/ lq wkh rswlpdo udqjh/ phwdo�oolqj pdwhuldo +ri nqrzq yroxph, lv xvhg1

Wr whvw wkh fdoleudwlrq dqg jhw dq lpsuhvvlrq ri wkh dffxudf| wkdw fdq ehrewdlqhg/ whvw h{shulphqwv zhuh frqgxfwhg zlwk suhflvho| pdfklqhg phwdo vskhuhv+gldphwhu 531333134pp,1 Diwhu uhgxflqj wkh yroxph Y� ri wkh vdpsoh fkdpehu


zlwk wkh �oolqj pdwhuldo/ qlwurjhq0jdv zdv suhvvxulvhg lqwr lw dqg wkhq h{sdqghglq wkh vhfrqg fkdpehu +zlwk qr �oo pdwhuldo,1 Wklv surfhgxuh zdv uhshdwhg�yh wlphv dqg d phdq ydoxh �+d, @ 4=7:6; 3=3339 zdv fdofxodwhg iru wkh udwlrur @ d @ T2

T�1 Wkh xqfhuwdlqw| rq wklv ydoxh fruuhvsrqgv wr wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq

ri wkh �yh phdvxuhphqwv1 Wkh h{shulphqw zdv uhshdwhg/ wklv wlph zlwk wkh vhfrqgfkdpehu dovr frqwdlqlqj �oolqj pdwhuldo/ wr jhw lwv yroxph lq wkh rswlplvhg udqjh1D qhz phdq ydoxh dqg vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq iru wkh udwlr ur @ e @ T2

T�ehwzhhq wkh

wzr yroxphv htxdo wr �+e, @ 3=634<: 3=3333< zdv ghwhuplqhg1Jdv0h{sdqvlrq h{shulphqwv zhuh wkhq frqgxfwhg zlwk ydulrxv qxpehuv ri

phwdo vskhuhv dgghg wr wkh vdpsoh fkdpehu yroxph zlwk �oo pdwhuldo dqg wkhjdv zdv h{sdqghg lq wkh vhfrqg fkdpehu zlwk �oo pdwhuldo1 Wkh phdq ydoxhv riwkh uhgxfhg vhfrqg fkdpehu yroxphv/ �+f%,/ iru wkhvh fdvhv +zlwk { @83/ 433/483 dqg 4<<, duh wkhq fdofxodwhg1 Wkh yroxph ri wkh vskhuhv Y% lqvhuwhg lq wkhvdpsoh fkdpehu fdq eh fdofxodwhg iurp wkh ydulrxv udwlrv ehwzhhq yroxphv dqgwkh zhoo nqrzq yroxph Y2 xvlqj wkh iroorzlqj htxdwlrq=

Y% @>ES%�3>EK�>ES%�>E@�

Y2= +:16;,

Ilj1 :19 vkrzv wkh uhodwlyh ghyldwlrq ri wkh yroxphv ri wkh vskhuhv/ T%3T2T2

+(,/ dvrewdlqhg iurp Ht1 :16; yhuvxv wkh yroxphv ri wkh vskhuhv fdofxodwhg iurp wkhluvshfl�hg glphqvlrqv/ Y21 Wkh wzr ydoxhv duh sudfwlfdoo| lghqwlfdo/ lqglfdwlqj djrrg ydolgdwlrq ri wkh phwkrg1

.�D�e �i@t�hi4i?| ThLUi_�hi uLh M��*_�?} 4@|ih�@* t@4T*it

Wkh exloglqj pdwhuldo vdpsoh lv sodfhg lq wkh vdpsoh fkdpehu +Y�, dqg �oolqjpdwhuldo lv dgghg durxqg wkh vdpsoh wr lqfuhdvh wkh ydoxh ri wkh uhgxfhg0vdpsohyroxph wr rswlpdo +ur * 3=;,1 Wkh vdpsoh lv wkhq uhpryhg dqg �yh jdv0h{sdqvlrqh{shulphqwv duh frqgxfwhg zlwk wkh �oolqj pdwhuldo lq wkh vdpsoh fkdpehu +Y�,dqg zlwk wkh vhfrqg fkdpehu +Y2, hpsw| wr ghwhuplqh wkh udwlr d +vhh vhf0wlrq :1816,1 Wkhq lq wkh vdpsoh fkdpehu +Y2, �oolqj pdwhuldo lv sodfhg vxfkwkdw wkh yrlg yroxph lv dssur{lpdwho| htxdo wr wkh h{shfwhg yrlg yroxph lq wkhvdpsoh fkdpehu +Y�, zlwk wkh vdpsoh dqg wkh �oolqj pdwhuldo +u2 * 3=5 @ 4�ur,1Djdlq �yh jdv0h{sdqvlrq h{shulphqwv duh frqgxfwhg wr ghwhuplqh wkh udwlr e +vhhvhfwlrq :1816,1 Wkhq �yh jdv h{sdqvlrq h{shulphqwv duh fduulhg rxw wr ghwhuplqhwkh sruh yroxph ri wkh vdpsoh1 Vhsdudwho| wkh exon yroxph ri wkh vdpsoh +Yr, lvghwhuplqhg e| phdqv ri d fdolshu1 Iurp Ht1 :167 wkh srurvlwlhv ri wkh vdpsohv duhwkhq fdofxodwhg1 Wkh phdq ydoxhv �+d, dqg �+e, ri wkh fdoleudwlrq frqvwdqwv d dqg

:18 Srurvlphwhu 464

V (cm3) from dimensions200 400 600 800

rel.

devi

atio

n (%

)

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Iljxuh :19= VL*�4it Lu |�i tT�ihit U@*U�*@|i_ uhL4 }@t�i T@?t�L? i Tih�4i?|t @t @ u�?U|�L?

Lu |�i �L*�4i Lu |�i tT�ihit U@*U�*@|i_ uhL4 |�i�h tTiU��i_ _�4i?t�L?t� ,hhLh M@ht hiThiti?|

|�i ThLT@}@|i_ �?Uih|@�?|) _�i |L �?Uih|@�?|�it �? �@h�L�t h@|�Lt Et|@?_@h_ _i��@|�L?t L�ih ��i

4i@t�hi4i?|t� @?_ |�i �?Uih|@�?|) �? _i|ih4�?@|�L? Lu �L*�4i V2�

e> uhvshfwlyho|/ duh ghwhuplqhg ehiruh phdvxulqj hdfk vdpsoh wr dyrlg srvvleohlq�xhqfhv gxh wr fkdqjhv lq dwprvskhulf suhvvxuh dqg dlu whpshudwxuh1

�

�L?Uhi|i hiU�Ti( UL4TL?i?|t@?_ 4� |�hit

H�� W?|hL_�U|�L?

Wkh vdpsohv lqyhvwljdwhg lq wklv vwxg| duh vwdqgdug frqfuhwh vdpsohv surylghge| lqgxvwu| +Ilj1 8 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,1 Wkhlu pdqxidfwxulqj surfhgxuhdqg uhflsh zloo eh eulh�| ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq ;151 Dv glvfxvvhg ehiruh/ frqfuhwhlv d frpsoh{ v|vwhp zlwk d kljk ghjuhh ri lqkrprjhqhlw|1 Lwv udgrq0uhohdvh lvlqwulqvlfdoo| uhodwhg wr wkh irupdwlrq dqg hyroxwlrq ri frqfuhwh plfurvwuxfwxuh1Lqwulfdwh v|vwhpv duh xvxdoo| lqyhvwljdwhg e| vwduwlqj iurp d vlpsoh vlwxdwlrq dqg/diwhu surshuo| xqghuvwdqglqj lw/ lqfuhdvlqj vwhszlvh wkh frpsoh{lw|1 Iroorzlqjwklv whfkqltxh/ wkh lqglylgxdo surshuwlhv ri frqfuhwh frpsrqhqwv dvvrfldwhg wrudgrq0uhohdvh +udglxp frqwhqw/ hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw/ udgrq0uhohdvh udwh, zhuhphdvxuhg dqg frpsduhg wr wkh fruuhvsrqglqj frqfuhwh surshuw| +vhfwlrq ;16,1

Lq wu|lqj wr uhodwh udgrq uhohdvh wr ydulrxv plfurvwuxfwxudo dvshfwv ri frqfuhwh/wzr pl{wxuhv zhuh surgxfhg lq rxu oderudwru| dffruglqj wr wkh vdph uhflsh dv

466

467 Frqfuhwh uhflsh> frpsrqhqwv dqg pl{wxuhv

xvhg lq lqgxvwu|1 Wkh �uvw pl{wxuh frqvlvwhg ri fhphqw sdvwh rqo| zkhuhdv wkhvhfrqg dovr frqwdlqhg vdqg1 Iurp erwk pl{wxuhv d fxeh ri wkh vdph glphqvlrqvdv wkh vwdqgdug frqfuhwh vdpsohv +48�48�48 fp�, zdv pdgh1 Wkh udgrq0uhohdvhudwhv ri wkhvh fxehv zhuh shulrglfdoo| phdvxuhg1 Wklv fkdswhu zloo rqo| surylghlqirupdwlrq rq wkh pdnlqj ri wkh wzr vdpsohv +vhfwlrq ;17,1 Wkh uhvxowv ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phdvxuhphqwv ri wkh pl{wxuhv zloo eh glvfxvvhg lq fkdswhu 441

H�2 �L?Uhi|i hiU�Ti @?_ t@4T*it

Wkh frqfuhwh vdpsohv +vwdqgdug whvw fxehv> vlgh= 48 fp, wkdw kdyh ehhq lqyhv0wljdwhg gxulqj wklv vwxg| zhuh surylghg e| wkh Gxwfk lqgxvwu| +HQFL 0HhuvwhQhghuodqgvh Fhphqw Lqgxvwu|/ LMpxlghq/ wkh Qhwkhuodqgv, dqg pdqxidfwxuhg df0fruglqj wr wkh vwdqgdug surfhgxuh SER0341 Wkh pdqxidfwxulqj uhflsh lv vkrzqlq Wdeoh ;141

Wdeoh ;14= �@?�u@U|�h�?} hiU�Ti uLh �D UL?Uhi|i |it| U�Mit @t ThL��_i_ M) ,��W� A�i Ui4i?|

|)Ti �t �,� WWW%� e2�D wO O5c |�i @MMhi��@|�L? Mi�?} i T*@�?i_ �? tiU|�L? 2�2�� }}hi}@|it

hiuih |L ML|�c t@?_ @?_ }h@�i*�

UHFLSHqxpehu ri fxehv 48

zdwhu fhphqw udwlr 317;fhphqw 4;17 njzdwhu ;1; njdjjuhjdwhv 433 nj

Diwhu ehlqj srxuhg/ wkh 48 frqfuhwh fxehv zhuh frqglwlrqhg +lq rqh ri wkhoderudwrulhv dw HQFL, xqghu zdwhu iru 54 gd|v dqg wkhuhdiwhu/ vwruhg iru xs wr 5;gd|v xqghu frqwuroohg dqg uhjlvwhuhg whpshudwxuh +53�F, dqg uhodwlyh kxplglw|+98( UK,1 Vl{ ri wkh 48 fxehv zhuh xvhg e| HQFL iru txdolw| fkhfnv1 Wkhrwkhu qlqh +frghg FU4 wr FU<, zhuh vhqw wr QJG0NYL zkhuh wkh| zhuh wljkwo|zudsshg lq sodvwlf vkhhwv dqg vwruhg lq sodvwlf edjv iru dw ohdvw rqh prqwk/ wrdoorz wkh fxulqj surfhvv wr frqwlqxh1 Xqghu wkhvh frqglwlrqv/ shulrglf zhljklqjri wkh whvw fxehv vkrzv d pd{lpxp orvv ri 319 ( lq pdvv1 Ghwdlohg lqirupdwlrqderxw vwrudjh frqglwlrqv dqg phdvxuhphqwv frqgxfwhg rq hdfk ri wkh whvw fxehvlv dydlodeoh ^483`1

;15 Frqfuhwh uhflsh dqg vdpsohv 468

Wkh lqlwldo pdvvhv ri wkh qlqh fxehv udqjhg ehwzhhq ;14 nj dqg ;15 nj zlwk dphdq ydoxh ri ;1473=39 nj1 Wkh ghwdlohg frpsrvlwlrq lv lqglfdwhg lq Wdeoh ;15dqg lv frqvlghuhg dv ehlqj uhsuhvhqwdwlyh iru wkh prvw zlgho| xvhg frqfuhwh lqwkh Gxwfk exloglqj sudfwlfh +SER034,1

D vhfrqg edwfk ri frqfuhwh fxehv +frghg FU56 wr FU5<, ri wkh vdph frpsr0vlwlrq dqg fxuhg xqghu vlplodu frqglwlrqv zdv vhqw rqh |hdu odwhu +4<<;, wr wkhQJG0NYL1 Wklv qhz edwfk ri fxehv zdv vwruhg dw urrp frqglwlrqv1

Wdeoh ;15= #i|@�*i_ UL4TLt�|�L? Lu @ UL?Uhi|i U�Mi�

Frpsrqhqwv W|sh Vl}h +pp, Pdvv +nj, i� +(,Fhphqw LM Eodvw ixuqdfh ?31396 414: 4717Vdqg Ilqh 3140316 3159 615

Phglxp 3150318 318; :14

Frduvh 3180413 31<9 441;Yhu| frduvh 413041; 3185 917

5165 5;17Judyho Judqxohv 5130713 3178 818

Sheeohv L 7130;13 31;6 4315Sheeohv LL ;13049 4168 4919Sheeohv LLL 49058 417: 4;14

7143 8318

Zdwhu �S E6�

@317; 3189 91:

Wrwdo ;148

H�2�� +@_�L4i|h�U ThLTih|�it ��?�|�@* @ttitt4i?|

Wr surylgh d edvholqh iru frpsdulvrq zlwk udglrphwulf surshuwlhv ri frqfuhwhfrpsrqhqwv dq lqlwldo dvvhvvphqw ri wkh udglxp dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrq +F-@, dqgwkh udgrq hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw +�, zdv pdgh1

Wzr phdvxuhphqwv ri F-@ zhuh pdgh dffruglqj wr wkh phwkrg ghvfulehg lqvhfwlrq :16 rq frqfuhwh fuxvkhg sduwv dssur{lpdwho| 5 fp lq gldphwhu dqg wr0wdo pdvv ri 418; nj ruljlqdwlqj iurp rqh ri wkh frqfuhwh fxehv +FU4,1 D ydoxhF-@ @541:319Et nj3� zdv ghwhuplqhg dv d zhljkwhg dyhudjh ri wkh wzr phd0vxuhphqwv ^483`1 Wkh phdvxuhphqw zdv uhshdwhg iru frqfuhwh fuxvkhg sduwv + pdvv


414< nj, ruljlqdwlqj iurp d fxeh ehorqjlqj wr wkh vhfrqg edwfk ri vdpsohv +FU56,1Wkh udglxp dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrq ri wklv vhfrqg edwfk +5517318Et nj3�, zdvqrw vljql�fdqwo| gl�huhqw iurp wkdw ri wkh �uvw edwfk1 Wklv frq�upv wkh frqvlv0whqf| ri wkh pdqxidfwxulqj surfhgxuh iru erwk edwfkhv1

Iurp wkh udglxp0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv/ wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw/ �/ zdvfdofxodwhg dv � @314;3136 +FU4, dqg � @31493136 +FU56,1 Wkh hpdqdwlrqfrh�flhqwv zhuh dovr ghwhuplqhg yld udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phdvxuhphqwv +vhh vhf0wlrq :17,1 Wkh wzr ydoxhv duh � @31583135 +FU4, dqg � @314;3134 +FU56,/uhvshfwlyho|1 Lq wklv �uvw dvvhvvphqw ri wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw qr sduwlfxodufduh zdv wdnhq ri wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri wkh vdpsohv1 Vdpsohv zhuh phdvxuhggluhfwo| diwhu suhsdudwlrq dqg wkhlu ghjuhh ri prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrq +vhh Ht1 7144,zdv hvwlpdwhg wr eh lq wkh udqjh p@319031;1 Wkh gl�huhqfhv ehwzhhq wkh wzrvhwv ri ydoxhv duh prvw olnho| uhodwhg wr gl�huhqfhv lq prlvwxuh frqwhqw ehwzhhqvdpsohv1 Wkh ydoxhv ri wkhvh �uvw phdvxuhphqwv zloo vhuyh rqo| dv d edvholqhydoxh iru wkh frpsdulvrq zlwk uhvxowv rq wkh lqglylgxdo frqfuhwh frpsrqhqwv1 Dpruh fduhixo dvvhvvphqw ri wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw ri frqfuhwh dv d ixqfwlrq riprlvwxuh frqwhqw lv surylghg lq fkdswhu 441

H�� L4TL?i?|t ThLTih|�it

Wkh udglrphwulf fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri frqfuhwh frpsrqhqwv duh hvvhqwldo iru xqghu0vwdqglqj dqg frqwuroolqj udgrq wudqvsruw wkurxjk frqfuhwh1 Pruhryhu/ olwhudwxuhvwxglhv ^5` lqglfdwh wkdw wkh ihdwxuhv fkdudfwhulvlqj lqglylgxdo frpsrqhqwv ri frq0fuhwh riwhq kdyh dq dgglwlyh ehkdylrxu1 Wr yhuli| wklv dvvxpswlrq +txhvwlrqpdunv lq Ilj1 915, udglxp0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrq/ udgrq0hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqwvdqg udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv iru hdfk ri wkh vl}h iudfwlrqv ri wkh frpsrqhqwv lqglfdwhglq Wdeoh ;15 zhuh phdvxuhg1

Wdeoh ;16 suhvhqwv wkh ydoxhv iru wkh 22SUd> 2�2Wk dqg efN dfwlylw| frqfhqwud0wlrqv dv phdvxuhg iru wkh urrp0gu| frpsrqhqwv1 Iru doo wkh wkuhh udglrqxfolghv/wkh ydoxhv ghwhuplqhg iru wkh jjev fhphqw duh ri wkh vdph rughu dv wkrvh lqglfdwhgiru eodvwixuqdfh vodj lq Wdeoh 816 zlwk wkh 2�2Wk frqfhqwudwlrq ehlqj vrphzkdworzhu +�63(,1 Wkh dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv ri efN ri vdqg dqg judyho iudfwlrqvduh kljkhu wkdq wkrvh ri 22SUd dqg 2�2Wk/ wkh vdph wuhqg ehlqj revhuyhg lq rwkhuolwhudwxuh vwxglhv +Wdeoh 816,1 Wkh dyhudjh ydoxhv ri wkh efN0dfwlylw| frqfhqwud0wlrqv ri wkh wzr djjuhjdwh iudfwlrqv 0�qh dqg phglxp vdqg0 duh derxw 43 wlphvvpdoohu wkdq wkrvh lqglfdwhg iru vdqg +9<304463Et nj3�, lq Wdeoh 8161 Iru erwk/wkh vdqg dqg wkh judyho frpsrqhqwv/ wkh prvw hohydwhg dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv

;16 Frpsrqhqwv surshuwlhv 46:

Wdeoh ;16= �U|��|) UL?Ui?|h@|�L?t Lu 22S+@c 2�2A� @?_ efk �? UL?Uhi|i UL4TL?i?|t @?_ |�i�h

4@tt TihUi?|@}i �? UL?Uhi|i�

Frpsrqhqw i�22SUd 2�2Wk efN

( Etnj3� Et nj3� Etnj3�

Ilqh vdqg 615 +9=9 3=4, +9=6 3=5, +544 46,Phglxp vdqg :14 +6=5 3=4, +6=4 3=4, +449 :,Frduvh vdqg 441; +6=8 3=4, +5=< 3=4, +89 7,Yhu| frduvh vdqg 917 +7=; 3=4, +6=: 3=4, +85 6,

Judqxohv 818 +9=3 3=5, +7=9 3=4, +:: 8,Sheeohv L 4315 +6=5 3=4, +5=7 3=4, +5; 5,Sheeohv LL 4919 +5=: 3=4, +5=7 3=4, +57 5,Sheeohv LLL 4;14 +5=4 3=4, +4=: 3=4, +:=7 3=9,Jjev fhphqw 4717 +464 6, +<3 6, +44; 43,Gu| frpsrqhqwv +vxp, 0 +54=8 3=7, +48=5 3=7, +87 5,Fuxvkhg frqfuhwh 0 +55=4 3=7, +49=6 3=9, +8< 5,

duh wr eh irxqg lq wkh vpdoohvw iudfwlrq/ l1h1 �qh vdqg +3140316 pp, dqg judqxohv+507 pp,/ uhvshfwlyho|1

Wr yhuli| wkh k|srwkhvlv ri dgglwlylw| iru wkh dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv/ wkhzhljkwhg iudfwlrq +i�F�, ri wkhvh frqfhqwudwlrqv +l @ Ud>Wk>N, lv fdofxodwhg1Wkhvh fdofxodwhg ydoxhv duh wkhq dgghg xs dqg frpsduhg wr wkh ydoxh ri wkh fru0uhvsrqglqj dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrq dv phdvxuhg iru fuxvkhg frqfuhwh +vhfwlrq ;15,1Wkh gdwd duh olvwhg lq Wdeoh ;16 lq wkh rqh exw odvw urz dqg fdq eh frpsduhgwr wkh dfwlylwlhv ri fuxvkhg frpsrqhqwv lq wkh odvw urz1 Wkh wzr vhwv ri Ud/ Wkdqg N frqfhqwudwlrqv/ ri wkh vxp ri wkh frpsrqhqwv zhljkwhg zlwk wkhlu iudfwlrqlq wkh pl{wxuh dqg wkdw ri frqfuhwh/ duh qrw vljql�fdqwo| gl�huhqw1 Wkxv/ wkhk|srwkhvlv ri dgglwlylw| krogv iru wkh dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv1

Wkh ydoxh ri wkh 22SUd0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrq iru frqfuhwh +fdofxodwhg dvzhljkwhg dyhudjh ri wkh ydoxhv lqglfdwhg lq vhfwlrq ;15, idoov zlwklq wkh udqjhri ydoxhv +430433Etnj3�, hqfrxqwhuhg lq olwhudwxuh ^474`1 Wkh eurdghvw udqjh ri22SUd dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv ri frqfuhwh lv phdvxuhg lq wkh Qhwkhuodqgv ^48:`1Wkh ydoxh ri wkh suhvhqwo| lqyhvwljdwhg pl{wxuh lv vlwxdwhg dw wkh orzhu vlgh riwkh udqjh1 Iru jjev/ wkh 22SUd dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrq lv vlwxdwhg lq wkh xsshuvlgh ri wkh udqjh hqfrxqwhuhg lq olwhudwxuh dqg lv derxw 8 wlphv kljkhu wkdq wkhydoxhv phdvxuhg iru rwkhu w|shv ri fhphqwv ru dgglwlyhv +Wdeoh 815,1 Iru vdqg dqgjudyho wkh vlwxdwlrq lv wkh rssrvlwh/ xvxdoo| ydoxhv ghwhuplqhg lq rwkhu olwhudwxuh

46; Frqfuhwh uhflsh> frpsrqhqwv dqg pl{wxuhv

vwxglhv duh derxw ; wr 43 wlphv kljkhu wkdq wkh ydoxhv ghwhuplqhg lq wklv vwxg|1Udgrq0h{kdodwlrq udwhv duh phdvxuhg iru wkh gu| frqfuhwh frpsrqhqwv/ iru

fhphqw sdvwh dqg iru wkh frqfuhwh vdpsohv1 Wkh uhvxowv duh lqglfdwhg lq Wdeoh ;171D udqjh lv lqglfdwhg iru wkh udgrq0h{kdodwlrq udwhv ri frqfuhwh/ uh�hfwlqj wkhyduldwlrqv lq wkh phdvxuhg ydoxhv ri wkh frqfuhwh fxehv +diwhu wkhlu duulydo dw wkhQJG0NYL,1

Wdeoh ;17= +@_L?�i �@*@|�L? Tih �?�| Lu 4@tt uLh UL?Uhi|i UL4TL?i?|tc Ui4i?| T@t|i @?_

UL?Uhi|i EUh�t�i_��

Frpsrqhqw H6c� i� H6 @ i�H6c�

�Et nj3� v3� ( �Et nj3� v3�

Ilqh vdqg +3=;7 3=3:, 615 +3=35: 3=335,

Phglxp vdqg +3=69 3=3<, :14 +3=359 3=339,Frduvh vdqg +3=67 3=39, 441; +3=373 3=33:,Yhu| frduvh vdqg +3=69 3=3;, 917 +3=356 3=338,Judqxohv +3=74 3=39, 818 +3=356 3=336,Sheeohv L +3=55 3=39, 4315 +3=355 3=339,Sheeohv LL +3=66 3=39, 4919 +3=388 3=33<,Sheeohv LLL � OOG 4;14 �

Jjev fhphqw +5=4 3=:, 4717 +3=64: 3=43,Gu| frpsrqhqwv +

Si�H6c�, +3=85 3=38,

Fhphqw sdvwh +5;=6 3=9, 5414 +8=<: 3=46,Gu| frpsrqhqwv)fhphqw sdvwh � 0 +9=7< 3=47,Frqfuhwh fxehv 5=8� :=5 0 �

Li rqh frpsduhv wkh ydoxh ri wkh udgrq h{kdodwlrq ri frqfuhwh shu xqlw ri pdvvH6@+518�:15, �Et nj

3� v3� zlwk wkh zhljkwhg vxp ri wkh udgrq0h{kdodwlrq riwkh gu| frpsrqhqwv +31853138�Etnj3� v3�,/ wkh gl�huhqfh lv derxw rqh rughuri pdjqlwxgh1 Wkxv/

lq wkh surfhvv ri pdnlqj frqfuhwh wkh udgrq surgxfwlrq lqfuhdvhv e|

dq rughu ri pdjqlwxgh1

Wr kdyh d fhuwdlq hvwlpdwh ri wkh frqwulexwlrq ruljlqdwlqj iurp wkh fhphqwsdvwh

��S

�6@ 317;

�/ wkh H60ydoxh ri d fhphqw sdvwh fxeh ri vlplodu glphqvlrqv

;16 Frpsrqhqwv surshuwlhv 46<

dv wkh frqfuhwh fxehv zdv phdvxuhg diwhu derxw 83 gd|v�1 Fruuhfwhg iru wkhiudfwlrq ri fhphqw sdvwh lq frqfuhwh/ wkh H60ydoxh +vhh Wdeoh ;17,/ dgghg wr wkhvxp fdofxodwhg iru wkh gu| frpsrqhqwv/ lqfuhdvhv wkh wrwdo wr 9=8�Et nj3� v3�

zklfk lv frpsdudeoh wr wkh xsshu olplw ri wkh udqjh phdvxuhg iru frqfuhwh1 Dvfhphqw kdv wkh prvw hohydwhg udglxp frqfhqwudwlrq ri doo frqfuhwh frpsrqhqwv+Wdeoh ;16, dqg zdwhu lv qrw h{shfwhg wr kdyh d vljql�fdqw udglxp dfwlylw| frq0fhqwudwlrq/ wkh gl�huhqfh ehwzhhq wkh phdvxuhg ydoxhv ri udgrq0h{kdodwlrq udwhvri wkh gu| fhphqw dqg ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh pxvw eh uhodwhg wr wkh idfw wkdw wkhfhphqw srzghu lv ghqvho| sdfnhg zkloh wkh fhphqw sdvwh lv srurxv1 Dfwxdoo|wkh udqjh H6@518�:15 �Et nj

3� v3� vwdwhg deryh dovr dffrxqwv iru lwv wlph0hyroxwlrq1 Pruhryhu/ wkh yduldwlrq ri H6 zdv dovr phdvxuhg dv ixqfwlrq ri wkhprlvwxuh frqwhqw ri frqfuhwh> ohdglqj wr ydoxhv lq wkh udqjh ^315044` �Et nj3� v3�1D pruh ghwdlohg glvfxvvlrq ri wkhvh uhvxowv zloo eh suhvhqwhg lq fkdswhu 441 Lqfrqfoxvlrq/ iurp wkh srlqw ri ylhz ri udgrq0uhohdvh/ wkh prvw lpsruwdqw frqwul0exwlrq lq frqfuhwh ruljlqdwhv iurp wkh fhphqw sdvwh> lwv dfwxdo ydoxh ghshqglqjrq prlvwxuh frqwhqw dqg djh1

Idlvfd ^73` vxjjhvwhg iru frqfuhwh d olqhdu uhodwlrq +Ht1 814, ehwzhhq wkh udgrqh{kdodwlrq udwh shu xqlw ri vxuidfh/ Hr/ dqg wkh udglxp frqfhqwudwlrqv1 Df0fruglqj wr wklv uhodwlrq/ wkh Hr0ydoxh ri rxu frqfuhwh vdpsohv vkrxog eh derxw31:pEtp32 v3�1 Frqvlghulqj wkdw wkh dyhudjh pdvv ri wkh frqfuhwh vdpsohvlv ;14 nj dqg d vxuidfh duhd ri wkh fxehv ri 31468p2/ wkh phdvxuhg udqjh iru Hr

+fdofxodwhg iurp wkh H6 udqjh/ 518�:15�Et nj3� v3�, lv 3148�3176pEtp32 v3�1E| xvlqj wkh sursruwlrqdolw| idfwruv sursrvhg e| Idlvfd ^73`/ rqh ryhuhvwlpdwhvwkh udgrq vxuidfh h{kdodwlrq udwh zlwk d idfwru ri 4181 Wkxv/ li d olqhdu uhodwlrqehwzhhq udglxp frqfhqwudwlrq dqg udgrq vxuidfh h{kdodwlrq udwh h{lvwv iru Gxwfkfrqfuhwh/ wkh sursruwlrqdolw| idfwruv duh gl�huhqw iurp Idlvfd*v ydoxh1

Wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqwv ri wkh frpsrqhqwv dqg ri frqfuhwh duh ghwhuplqhgiurp �0vshfwurphwu| dqg iurp d udgrq0uhohdvh phdvxuhphqw +vhfwlrq :17, xv0lqj wkh udgrq0h{kdodwlrq udwhv olvwhg lq Wdeoh ;171 Wkh frpsdulvrq ri uhvxowv+Wdeoh ;18, vkrzv wkdw wkh fdofxodwlrq ri wkh udgrq0hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw iurpudgrq0uhohdvh phdvxuhphqwv lv pruh suhflvh +xqfhuwdlqwlhv duh vpdoohu wkdq 58(,wkdq wkdw rewdlqhg iurp �0vshfwurphwu| +xqfhuwdlqwlhv xs wr 533(,1 Iru qrqhri wkh wzr phwkrgv wkh dvvxpswlrq ri dgglwlylw| krogv1 Wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�0flhqw ri frqfuhwh rewdlqhg dv wkh zhljkwhg vxp ri wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqwv riwkh frpsrqhqwv +wkh zhljklqj idfwru lv wkh pdvv shufhqwdjh ri wkdw frpsrqhqw

�A�i h@_L?�i �@*@|�L? h@|it Lu |�i UL?Uhi|i U�Mit �ihi 4i@t�hi_ @TThL �4@|i*) @u|ih |�it@4i |�4i �?|ih�@* @u|ih TL�h�?}�


lq wkh pl{, lv derxw wkuhh +�0vshfwurphwu|, dqg whq +udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phd0vxuhphqw, wlphv vpdoohu wkdq wkh phdvxuhg hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqwv iru frqfuhwh1Wkh udgrq hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw ri fhphqw sdvwh zdv ghwhuplqhg rqo| zlwk wkhvhfrqg phwkrg1 Zlwk wklv ydoxh dgghg wr wkh vxp ri wkh gu| frpsrqhqwv/ wkhhpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw ehfrphv frpsdudeoh wr wkrvh ghwhuplqhg iru wkh fuxvkhgfrqfuhwh +fdofxodwhg dv dyhudjhv ri wkh wzr ydoxhv lq vhfwlrq ;15,1

Wdeoh ;18= +@_L? i4@?@|�L? Lu UL?Uhi|i UL4TL?i?|tc 4Lh|@h @?_ UL?Uhi|i�

Frpsrqhqw i� � �

( �0vshfwurphwu| udgrq0uhohdvhIlqh vdqg 615 +3=36 3=37, +3=394 3=339,Phglxp vdqg :14 +3=39 3=38, +3=386 3=346,Frduvh vdqg 441; +3=36 3=3:, +3=37: 3=33;,

Yhu| frduvh vdqg 917 +3=36 3=37, +3=369 3=33;,Judqxohv 818 +3=36 3=37, +3=366 3=338,Sheeohv L 4315 +3=54 3=37, +3=366 3=33:,Sheeohv LL 4919 +3=46 3=38, +3=38; 3=344,Sheeohv LLL 4;14 � OOG � OOG

Jjev fhphqw 4717 � OOG +3=33; 3=335,Gu| frpsrqhqwv +

Si��, 0 +3=39 3=34, +3=35< 3=335,

Fhphqw sdvwh 5414 0 +3=478 3=337,Gu| frpsrqhqwv)fhphqw sdvwh 0 0 +3=4:7 3=338,

Frqfuhwh +phdvxuhg, 0 +3=4: 3=36, +3=55 3=35,

Wkh ydoxh ri wkh udgrq0hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw iru frqfuhwh lv frpsdudeoh wrvrph ri wkh olwhudwxuh ydoxhv +vwxglhv lq wkh Qhwkhuodqgv ^48:` dqg Kxqjdu| ^474`,exw lw lv dovr d idfwru ri 5 wr 53 odujhu wkdq rwkhu ydoxhv iurp olwhudwxuh + ^475`/^474`,1

Wkh ydoxhv ri wkh udglxp0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv dqg udgrq0h{kdodwlrq irugu| frqfuhwh frpsrqhqwv vhhp/ zlwk d ihz h{fhswlrqv/ wr eh fruuhodwhg1 Dvdovr frqfoxghg e| Wvr hw do1 ^474` +vhfwlrq 815,/ hohydwhg udglxp frqfhqwudwlrqvfruuhvsrqg wr kljk udgrq0h{kdodwlrq ydoxhv1 Lq prvw fdvhv d frpelqdwlrq ri kljkudglxp frqfhqwudwlrqv dqg kljk hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqwv grhv uhvxow lq lqfuhdvhgudgrq h{kdodwlrq ri wkh frpsrqhqwv exw zlwkrxw d fohdu fruuhodwlrq1 Pl{lqj

;17 Pl{wxuhv 474

frpsrqhqwv wr pdqxidfwxuh frqfuhwh/ sdfnlqj ri judlqv/ k|gudwlrq ri fhphqwsdvwh dqg ydulrxv w|shv ri srurvlwlhv zloo eh idfwruv lq�xhqflqj wkh surshuwlhv riwkh �qdo surgxfw1 Lw lv dq rshq sureohp krz wkh udglrphwulf fkdudfwhulvwlfv riwkh frpsrqhqwv duh uhodwhg wr wkh fruuhvsrqglqj fkdudfwhulvwlf ri wkh pl{wxuh1Iru wkh udglxp frqfhqwudwlrqv wkh k|srwkhvlv ri dgglwlylw| +l1h1 wkh zhljkwhg vxpri wkh ydoxhv dv phdvxuhg iru wkh gu| frpsrqhqwv htxdov wkh ydoxh ghwhuplqhgiru frqfuhwh, krogv1 Krzhyhu/ iru udgrq h{kdodwlrq wklv k|srwkhvlv lv ydolg rqo|li dovr wkh ydoxh iru wkh h{kdodwlrq ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh dqg qrw wkh fhphqwsrzghu lv frqvlghuhg1 Wkh vdph frqfoxvlrq fdq eh gudzq dovr iru wkh hpdqdwlrqfrh�flhqw> zkhq wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh lv dgghg/ ydoxhvehfrph frpsdudeoh zlwk wkrvh ghwhuplqhg iru wkh fuxvkhg frqfuhwh1 Fohduo|/ wkhvrxufh ri udgrq lq frqfuhwh lv lwv fhphqw sdvwh1 \hw/ zkhq udgrq lv uhohdvhg/ wkhsuhvhqfh ri wkh djjuhjdwhv vhhpv wr sod| dq lpsruwdqw uroh1 Lw lv krshg wkdwe| lqwhjudwlqj wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh ri frqfuhwh dqg wkh prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrq lqwrd prgho wkdw suhglfwv udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv lq vsdfh dqg wlph zloo surylgh pruhlqvljkw1

H�e �� |�hit

Frqfuhwh lv d pl{ ri fhphqw dqg zdwhu wkdw/ zkhq k|gudwhg/ irupv wkh fhphqwsdvwh dqg krogv wrjhwkhu rwkhu frpsrqhqwv/ h1t1 vdqg dqg judyho1 Wkh sursru0wlrqv lq zklfk wkhvh frpsrqhqwv duh suhvhqw lq wkh pl{ duh fkrvhq vxfk dv wkh�qdo surgxfw vdwlv�hv zhoo hvwdeolvkhg gxudelolw| vwdqgdugv1 Wkh uhflsh dffruglqjwr zklfk Gxwfk frqfuhwh lv pdqxidfwxuhg lv suhvhqwhg lq Wdeoh ;151 Wkh frqfuhwhfxehv lqyhvwljdwhg lq wklv vwxg| duh surgxfhg frqirup wr wklv frpsrvlwlrq1 Dggl0wlrqdoo|/ dffruglqj wr wklv vdph uhflsh/ wzr vdpsohv ri vwdqgdug glphqvlrqv +vlgh48 fp, zhuh suhsduhg lq rxu oderudwru|= d fhphqw sdvwh dqg d pruwdu0vdqg fxeh1Phdvxulqj wkh wlph hyroxwlrq ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh/pruwdu0vdqg dqg frqfuhwh vdpsohv dqg e| qxphulfdoo| prghoolqj wkh fkdqjhv lqwkhlu plfurvwuxfwxuh/ revhuylqj vlplodulwlhv dqg gl�huhqfhv lq wkhlu ehkdylrxu/ lq0vljkw lq wkh surfhvv ri udgrq jhqhudwlrq dqg uhohdvh ri frqfuhwh pljkw eh jdlqhg1Wkhvh phdvxuhphqwv dqg wkhlu dqdo|vlv duh ghvfulehg lq fkdswhu 441

Wkh fhphqw sdvwh fxeh zdv pdgh rq wkh <|� ri Rfwrehu 4<<<1 Dq lqlwldodprxqw ri 8 nj fhphqw dqg 517 nj ri zdwhu zhuh pl{hg wrjhwkhu lq d exfnhw/ xqwlod krprjhqhrxv pl{wxuh zdv rewdlqhg1 Wkhvh lqlwldo dprxqwv zhuh fkrvhq vxfkdv wkh zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr +317;, lqglfdwhg lq wkh frqfuhwh uhflsh zdv suhvhuyhg1Vxevhtxhqwo|/ wkh fhphqw0sdvwh pl{wxuh zdv srxuhg lq d zrrghq prxog +fxeh/


vlgh= 48 fp, dqg zudsshg lq irlo wr doorz iru fxulqj1 Wkh lqlwldo pdvv ri wkh fhphqwsdvwh vdpsoh zdv 9154 nj ri zklfk +dvvxplqj wkdw lpphgldwho| diwhu pl{lqj wkhzdwhu0fhphqw udwlr uhpdlqhg xqfkdqjhg/ l1h1 317;, 7153 nj zdv fhphqw dqg 5134 njzdwhu1 Wkh fhphqw0sdvwh vdpsoh zdv uhpryhg diwhu vhyhq gd|v iurp wkh prxogdqg sodfhg dw urrp frqglwlrqv1 Udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv zhuh phdvxuhg uhjxoduo|+derxw hyhu| prqwk, iru d wlph shulrg xs wr vl{ prqwkv1 Vxevhtxhqwo|/ wkh vdpsohzdv sodfhg lq d yhqwlodwlrq ryhq dw 453�F iru rqh prqwk iru d gu| frqglwlrqlqjiru zklfk wkh srurvlw| zdv ghwhuplqhg +Wdeoh ;19,1

D pruwdu0vdqg fxeh zdv pdqxidfwxuhg rq wkh <|� ri Ghfhpehu 4<<< dffrug0lqj wr wkh frpsrvlwlrq lqglfdwhg lq Wdeoh ;15 lq zklfk wkh judyho iudfwlrq zdvfrpsohwho| uhsodfhg zlwk vdqg +dgglqj xs wr d wrwdo dprxqw ri 91: nj ri vdqg,dqg wkh dprxqw ri fhphqw dqg zdwhu zhuh nhsw xqfkdqjhg +4155 nj ri fhphqw dqg318< nj ri zdwhu/ uhvshfwlyho|,1 Wkhvh frpsrqhqwv zhuh pl{hg lq d exfnhw/ wkhpl{wxuh zdv vxevhtxhqwo| srxuhg lq d zrrghq prxog dqg zudsshg lq d sodvwlfirlo wr doorz iru fxulqj gxulqj vhyhq gd|v1 Qh{w wkh irlo zdv uhpryhg dqg wkhvdpsoh wdnhq rxw iurp wkh prxog dqg vwruhg lq d folpdwh urrp dw 53�F dqg83(UK1 Udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv zhuh phdvxuhg shulrglfdoo| iru d shulrg ri xs wr�yh prqwkv1 Dgglwlrqdoo|/ wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ri wkh gu| dqg zhw vdpsoh zhuhphdvxuhg21 Wkh gu| dqg zhw frqglwlrqlqj ri wkh vdpsoh zhuh rewdlqhg e| gu|lqjlq d yhqwlodwlrq ryhq dw 453�F dqg e| lpphuvlqj xqghu zdwhu/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Frq0vlghulqj wkh zhw frqglwlrqlqj lw zdv revhuyhg wkdw wkh vdpsoh orvw d vljql�fdqwdprxqw ri lwv zdwhu frqwhqw gxulqj lwv uhprydo iurp wkh zdwhu edwk1 Dq hvwlpdwhri lwv zhw pdvv +9;<7 j, zdv pdgh e| gluhfwo| sodflqj lw rq d vfdoh1 Krzhyhu/wklv ydoxh vljql�fdqwo| xqghuhvwlpdwhv wkh uhdo zhw pdvv1 Ixuwkhupruh/ lq wkh�uvw 8 krxuv diwhu hphuvlrq pruh zdwhu +dssur{lpdwho| 633 j, ohdnhg rxw ri wkhvdpsoh/ lpso|lqj wkdw wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh zdv phdvxuhg zlwk dq hyhq orzhuzdwhu frqwhqw1

Wkh srurvlwlhv ri erwk vdpsohv zhuh phdvxuhg xvlqj wkh jdv0h{sdqvlrq dqgwkh zdwhu0lpphuvlrq phwkrgv +vhh vhfwlrq :18, dqg duh olvwhg lq Wdeoh ;191 Wkhwzr srurvlwlhv phwkrgv iru wkh fhphqw sdvwh fxeh jlyh frqvlvwhqw uhvxowv1 Dvwr eh h{shfwhg/ dw d ghjuhh ri zdwhu vdwxudwlrq ri 317; wkh dlu0�oohg srurvlw| lvuhgxfhg sursruwlrqdoo|1 Wkh pdvv ri wkh ixoo| zhw vdpsoh lv frqvlghuhg dv ehlqjwkh lqlwldo pdvv ri wkh fhphqw0sdvwh vdpsoh +9154 nj,/ dvvxplqj wkdw doo h{lvwlqj

2`�i? 4@?�u@U|�h�?} |�i 4Lh|@h�t@?_ U�Mi |�i @4L�?| Lu �@|ih �? |�i 4� |�hi �@t ?L|i?L�}� |L u�**) t@|�h@|i |�i t@4T*i @?_ _�i |L |��t u@U| @ ��}�ih TLhLt�|) �@t LM|@�?i_� �ti T*@�?i_ �? b��2c ��i? hiT*@U�?} |�i @}}hi}@|i uh@U|�L? ��|� t@?_c |�i ThLTLh|�L?t t�L�*_ �@�iMii? hiU@*U�*@|i_ |L @UUL�?| uLh @ _�gihi?| t�hu@Ui @hi@� �L?ti^�i?|*)c |�i ULhhiU| �i| 4@tt Lu|�i 4Lh|@h�t@?_ t@4T*i �@t _i|ih4�?i_ @u|ih �@|ih �44iht�L?�

;17 Pl{wxuhv 476

sruhv duh zdwhu0vdwxudwhg1

Wdeoh ;19= ��h��**i_ TLhLt�|�it E%RJoJr�6e|eo� Lu |�i Ui4i?|�T@t|i @?_ 4Lh|@h�t@?_ t@4T*it

4i@t�hi_ @| _�gihi?| 4@tt EP�c uLh _�gihi?| 4L�t|�hi UL?_�|�L?�?} Ep� ��|� |�i }@t�i T@?t�L?

4i|�L_� V@*�it uhL4 �@|ih��44iht�L? @hi }��i? �? |�i *@t| UL*�4? E%�66eor�J?,�Vdpsoh P p %RJoJr�6e|eo %�66eor�J?

0 j 0 0 0Fhphqw sdvwh fxeh 8497 3 315:<3133; 3163:3133<

89:4 317; 314963133: 3148<313399543 4 0 3

Pruwdu0vdqg fxeh 9536 3 3163;31339 3153631339

98<5 3179 3154531337 31446313369;<7 4 0 3

Glvfuhsdqflhv h{lvw iru wkh fdvh ri wkh pruwdu0vdqg fxeh= wkh zdwhu lpphuvlrqydoxhv duh frqvlghudeo| orzhu wkdq rewdlqhg zlwk wkh jdv0h{sdqvlrq phwkrg1 Wklvlv qrw vxusulvlqj frqvlghulqj wkh idfw wkdw wkh zhw pdvv zdv xqghuhvwlpdwhg gxhwr zdwhu ohdndjh rxw ri wkh vdpsoh1 Wdnlqj lqwr dffrxqw wkdw derxw 633 j zdwhuohdnhg rxw ri wkh vdpsoh zloo eulqj wkh wzr ydoxhv lq djuhhphqw1

Wkh idfw wkdw wkh pruwdu0vdqg fxeh hdvlo| orvhv zdwhu diwhu uhphuvlrq dqg wkhfhphqw0sdvwh fxeh vhhpv wr uhwdlq lwv zdwhu zkloh erwk vdpsohv kdyh urxjko| wkhvdph srurvlw| lv prvw olnho| fdxvhg e| wkh gl�huhqw sruh vwuxfwxuh1 Wkh srurvlw|ri wkh fhphqw0sdvwh fxeh zloo juhdwo| eh grplqdwhg e| vpdoo gldphwhu jho sruhvzklovw iru wkh pruwdu fxeh odujhu gldphwhu fdsloodu| sruhv zloo grplqdwh1 Lqfrqfoxvlrq zh fdq vwdwh wkdw wkh jdv0h{sdqvlrq phwkrg |lhogv wkh pruh uholdeohydoxhv ri wkh srurvlw|1

�

��UhLt|h�U|�h@* �?uLh4@|�L?

b�� W?|hL_�U|�L?

Lq fkdswhu 6 d prgho wr hvwlpdwh txdqwlwdwlyho| wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh dqg wkh prlv0wxuh wudqvsruw ri frqfuhwh zdv sursrvhg1 D eulhi ghvfulswlrq ri wkh qxphulfdolpsohphqwdwlrq ri wkh prgho +GxFRP, lv jlyhq lq vhfwlrq 9161 Wkh lqirupdwlrqrq srurvlw|/ sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq dqg sruh0zdwhu frqwhqw surylghg e| GxFRP

lv wkhq frxsohg dffruglqj wr Ilj1 915 wr wkh udglrphwulf lqirupdwlrq ri wkh frp0srqhqwv dqg lpsohphqwhg lq wkh qxphulfdo prgho ri udgrq uhohdvh/ UdgPrg +vhf0wlrq 915,1

Wklv fkdswhu suhvhqwv wkh uhvxowv ri wkh GxFRP vlpxodwlrqv iru d frqfuhwhfxeh dqg iru wkh wzr oderudwru|0pdqxidfwxuhg vdpsohv= d fhphqw sdvwh dqg dpruwdu0vdqg fxeh +vhfwlrq ;17,1 Lq vhfwlrq <15 wkh ydoxhv xvhg dv lqsxw sdudphwhuvduh suhvhqwhg dqg glvfxvvhg1 Wr whvw wkh dffxudf| ri wkh vlpxodwlrqv/ ghfuhdvhlq wkh zdwhu frqwhqw ri wkh wkuhh vdpsohv zdv frpsduhg zlwk phdvxuhg ydoxhv+vhfwlrq <16,1 Wkh sruh0vsdfh lq wkh fhphqw sdvwh lv glylghg ehwzhhq fdsloodu|/

478

479 Plfurvwuxfwxudo lqirupdwlrq

jho dqg lqwhuod|hu sruhv +vhfwlrq 518,1 Wkh wlph0hyroxwlrq ri wkhvh srurvlwlhv dviudfwlrqv ri wkh wrwdo srurvlw| lv glvfxvvhg lq vhfwlrq <171 Iru wkh fdsloodu| dqgjho sruhv dovr sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq sur�ohv duh vkrzq1 Dfwxdoo| fdsloodu| dqgjho sruhv sod| d ghflvlyh uroh lq wudqvsruw/ wkxv/ wkh| dovr jryhuq wkh zdwhu pryh0phqw1 Qrw rqo| fxulqj exw dovr vxevhtxhqw hqylurqphqwdo frqglwlrqv lq�xhqfhwkh dprxqw dqg glvwulexwlrq ri zdwhu lq d vshflphq1 Prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrqv iruwkh fhphqw sdvwh dqg frqfuhwh vdpsohv duh suhvhqwhg lq vhfwlrq <18 dv gldjrqdofurvv0vhfwlrqv wrjhwkhu zlwk wkhlu wlph hyroxwlrq1

b�2 W?T�| T@h@4i|iht

Wkh lqsxw lqirupdwlrq eulh�| vxppdulvhg lq vhfwlrq 916 +Ilj1 914, lv ghvfulehgkhuh lq pruh ghwdlo dqg vshfl�hg iru wkh fhphqw0sdvwh/ pruwdu0vdqg dqg frqfuhwhvdpsohv1

Wkh jhrphwu| ri doo wkuhh vdpsohv lv lghqwlfdo= d fxeh ri vwdqgdug 48 fp vl}h+vhfwlrq ;16,1 Lqfoxglqj wkh wzr hqg srlqwv/ rq hdfk hgjh vl{ qrghv zhuh gh�qhge| vshfli|lqj wkh {/ | dqg } frruglqdwhv +lq phwhuv,1 Wkh srvlwlrq ri wkh qrghvzdv pruh uh�qhg forvh wr wkh hgjhv/ zlwk d frduvhu vsdflqj wrzdugv wkh plg0goh1 Zlwk d wrwdo ri 549 qrghv/ wkh wkuhh0glphqvlrqdo vwuxfwxuh lv wkhq glylghglq 458 hohphqwv +hljkw qhljkerxulqj srlqwv gh�qh dq hohphqw, dqg 483 erxqg0du| vxuidfhv wkurxjk zklfk wudqvsruw pd| wdnh sodfh1 Wkh lqlwldo whpshudwxuhri frqfuhwh dw sodfhphqw lv gh�qhg dw hdfk qrgh dv 53�F1 Dv lqlwldoo| wkh sruhvsdfh lv frpsohwho| �oohg zlwk zdwhu/ wkh oltxlg suhvvxuh htxdov wkh dwprvskhulfsuhvvxuh +htxloleulxp frqglwlrqv,1 Wkxv/ wkh lqlwldo oltxlg suhvvxuh dw hyhu| qrghlv wkh htxlydohqw ri 4 dwp/ l1h1 4333 pedu1 D wlph vwhs +lq gd|v, lv wkhq vshf0l�hg dqg iru hdfk vwhs wkh hqylurqphqwdo frqglwlrqv +whpshudwxuh dqg uhodwlyhkxplglw|, duh vhw1 Wkh lqglfhv iru wkh rxwsxw dqg iru dfwlydwlqj wkh khdw0hqhuj|�x{ wudqvihu2prlvwxuh wudqvsruw +4 fruuhvsrqgv wr wkh dfwlydwlrq ri wkh wudqvihuhohphqw dwwdfkhg rq wkh vxuidfh ri wkh vwuxfwxuh zkloh 3 ghvfulehv dq lvrodwhgvlwxdwlrq zlwkrxw �x{, duh dovr jlyhq dw hdfk wlph vwhs1 Wkh lqlwldo whpshudwxuhdqg oltxlg zdwhu suhvvxuh gh�qhg dw hdfk qrgh dqg wkh hqylurqphqwdo frqglwlrqviru wkh vxevhtxhqw wlph0vwhsv frqvwlwxwh wkh erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv iru wkh jhqhulfhtxdwlrq Ht1 9151

Lqvlgh wkh deryh gh�qhg yroxph/ djjuhjdwhv duh dvvxphg wr eh d vphduhgglvshuvhg vxvshqvlrq1 Wklv dvvxpswlrq krogv lq wkh suhvhqw fdvh ehfdxvh wkh vl}hri wkh vdpsohv lv vljql�fdqwo| odujhu wkdq wkh vl}h ri djjuhjdwhv1

Lqirupdwlrq uhodwhg wr wkh pdwhuldo fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh vdpsohv dqg wkhlu

<15 Lqsxw sdudphwhuv 47:

frpsrqhqwv lv qhhghg dv lqsxw iru GxFRP1 Wkh iroorzlqj ydoxhv duh xvhg=

� iudfwlrqdo ghqvlw|� ri wkh vdpsoh +XZ/ Wdeoh <14,/ ri wkh fhphqwlwlrxv srz0ghu +XF/ Wdeoh <14,/ ri wkh �qh djjuhjdwh +XV/ Wdeoh <14, dqg ri wkh frduvhdjjuhjdwh +XJ/ Wdeoh <14,1 Ydoxhv iru wkhvh sdudphwhuv duh jlyhq lq Wdeoh <14iru wkh fhphqw0sdvwh/ pruwdu0vdqg dqg frqfuhwh vdpsohv1 Wkh vdph ydoxh ri wkhzdwhu0fhphqw udwlr e| pdvv +317;, dv wkdw suhvfulehg lq wkh pdqxidfwxulqj uhflsh+vhfwlrq ;15, lv xvhg lq wkh fdofxodwlrqv1

Wdeoh <14= 6h@U|�L?@* _i?t�|) Lu |�i |�hii �?�it|�}@|i_ t@4T*it� XZ _i?L|it |�i �?�| _i?t�|)

Lu |�i t@4T*ic XF |�@| Lu |�i Ui4i?|�|�L�t TL�_ihc ��*i XV @?_ XJ @hi |�i �?�| _i?t�|) Lu

|�i �?i @?_ UL@hti @}}hi}@|i uh@U|�L?c hitTiU|��i*)�

Vdpsoh Yroxph XZ XF XV XJ

433S p� njp3� njp3� njp3� njp3�

Fhphqw sdvwh fxeh 66:8 4;73 4577 3 3Pruwdu0vdqg fxeh 66:8 4<53 5:6 4845 3

Frqfuhwh 66:8 574; 67: 9;7 4554

� pdvv shufhqwdjh ri fhphqw srzghu frpsrqhqwv= ruglqdu| Sruwodqg fhphqw+73(,/ eodvwixuqdfh vodj +93(,/ �|0dvk +3(, dqg olphvwrqh srzghu +3(,>

� shufhqwdjhv ri plqhudo frpsrxqgv ri ruglqdu| Sruwodqg fhphqw= 7<1:( iruF�V/ 561<( iru F2V/ ;1;( iru F�D dqg <17( iru FeDI ^:4`1

�Eodlqh ydoxhv +srzghu vxuidfh duhd, ri fhphqw srzghu frpsrqhqwv= 6853 p2 nj3�

iru ruglqdu| Sruwodqg fhphqw/ 6633 p2 nj3� iru eodvwixuqdfh vodj/ 65;3 p2 nj3�

iru �| dvk dqg :333 p2 nj3� iru olphvwrqh ^:4`1

� vshfl�f ghqvlwlhv= 5:53 njp3� iru judyho/ 58;3 njp3� iru vdqg/ 6483 njp3�

iru ruglqdu| Sruwodqg fhphqw/ 5<33 njp3� iru eodvwixuqdfh vodj dqg 4<63 njp3�

iru �| dvk1

Wkh pdvv0shufhqwdjh ri eodvwixuqdfh vodj lq wkh fhphqw srzghu lv/ dffruglqjwr wkh pdqxidfwxuhu +HQFL,/ :8(1 Krzhyhu/ li wklv ydoxh lv xvhg lq wkh vlpx0odwlrqv/ wkh uhvxowv vkrz wkdw k|gudwlrq vwrsv doprvw lpphgldwho| diwhu pl{lqj+hyhq li zhw0fxulqj frqglwlrqv duh vshfl�hg, dqg qr orqj0whup ghyhorsphqw ri wkh

�A�i uh@U|�L?@* _i?t�|) Lu |�i t@4T*i%UL4TL?i?| �t _i�?i_ @t |�i h@|�L Lu |�i 4@tt Lu |�it@4T*i%UL4TL?i?| _��_i_ M) |�i |L|@* �L*�4i Lu |�i t@4T*i�

47; Plfurvwuxfwxudo lqirupdwlrq

plfurvwuxfwxuh rffxuv1 Dovr wkh dprxqw ri fdoflxp k|gur{lgh2/ FK/ lv whuplqdwhgdw yhu| hduo| djhv ehlqj wkh fdxvh iru wkh vwrsshg k|gudwlrq +Wdeoh <15,1

Wdeoh <15= �LhLt�|�it @?_ _i}hii Lu �)_h@|�L? uLh |�i Ui4i?| T@t|i t@4T*i ��|� SfI @?_ .DI

t*@} hiT*@Ui4i?| �? |�i Ui4i?| TL�_ih U@*U�*@|i_ ��|� #��c @u|ih �f @?_ ef _@)t Lu U�h�?}c

hitTiU|��i*)� W? |�i *@t| UL*�4? |�i uh@U|�L? Lu U@*U��4 �)_hL �_i E�O� �? |�i �)_h@|i_ T@t|i

�t �?_�U@|i_�

Vodj +(, Gd| % %, %} %S � FK:8 43 31766 3137; 313<< 315;8 31876 3

:8 73 31766 3137; 313<< 315;8 31876 393 43 3167: 313:8 31487 31449 31;88 313893 73 31679 313:9 31488 31448 31;8; 314

Lq uhdolw|/ iru frqfuhwh frqwdlqlqj vodj0ulfk fhphqw/ d yhu| udslg ghyhorsphqwri lwv vwuhqjwk +wkxv/ dovr ri lwv plfurvwuxfwxuh, rffxuv exw k|gudwlrq dqg pl0furvwuxfwxuh ghyhorsphqw dfwxdoo| qhyhu vwrs1 \hw/ d frqvlghudeoh dprxqw ri vodjuhpdlqv xquhdfwhg lqvlgh frqfuhwh1 Li d 93( +lqvwhdg ri :8(, grvdjh ri vodj lvxvhg lq wkh vlpxodwlrqv +93( lv dovr wkh pd{lpxp grvdjh ri jjev wkdw GxFRPzdv ghvljqhg iru, d forvhu wr uhdo hyroxwlrq ri fhphqw k|gudwlrq lv dfklhyhg/ l1h1 dorqj0whup/ qrq0}hur k|gudwlrq dqg d +dowkrxjk yhu|0vorz, fkdqjlqj plfurvwuxf0wxuh ^:4`1 Wr vhohfw wkh surshu grvdjh ri vodj lq wkh fhphqw srzghu/ qxphulfdouhvxowv +rewdlqhg iru 93( dqg :8( vodj, duh frpsduhg zlwk h{shulphqwdo gdwduhodwhg wr wkh wlph0ghfuhdvh ri wkh zdwhu frqwhqw ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh vdpsoh1

Ilj1 <14 vkrzv wkh zdwhu frqwhqw lq wkh vdpsoh dv ixqfwlrq ri wlph lq h{0shulphqwdo gdwd dqg lq wkh uhvxowv ri vlpxodwlrqv iru 93( dqg :8( vodj1 Wkhh{shulphqwdo zdwhu frqwhqwv duh vrphzkhuh lq ehwzhhq wkh kljkhvw grvdjh iruzklfk GxFRP surgxfhv uholdeoh uhvxowv +93(, dqg wkh vlpxodwlrq iru wkh dfwxdo:8( grvdjh1 Qrwh wkdw iru wkh fdvh ri :8( jjev/ dq dssuhfldeoh zdwhu orvv rffxuvdw gd| : fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkh gurs lq wkh lqsxw ydoxh ri wkh hqylurqphqwdo uhod0wlyh kxplglw| wr 83( +Wdeoh <16,1 Doo vxevhtxhqw ydoxhv duh/ rq dyhudjh/ derxw53( orzhu frpsduhg wr wkh h{shulphqwdo gdwd1 Pruhryhu/ wkh fdofxodwhg ydoxhviru wkh srurvlw| dqg ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/ zkhq wkh uhvxowv iru wkh wzr vodj frq0

2A�i hi@U|�L? Lu M*@t|u�h?@Ui t*@} �t Th�4@h�*) }L�ih?i_ M) |�i U@*U��4 �)_hL �_i hi*i@ti__�i |L Ui4i?| �)_h@|�L? ��U� @*tL @U|t @t @? @U|��@|Lh� A�i @4L�?| Lu U@*U��4 �)_hL �_i �tUL4T�|i_ uhL4 |�i t|L�U��L4i|h�U hi@U|�L?t Lu �)_h@|�L? Lu Ui4i?| E,^� 2�� |L ,^� 2�e��

<15 Lqsxw sdudphwhuv 47<

time (days)0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

mas

s o

f w

ater

(kg

)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

75% ggbs cement60% ggbs cementexperimental

Iljxuh <14= �L4T@h�tL? Lu |�i i Tih�4i?|@* U�h�i Lu 4L�t|�hi *Ltt Lu @ Ui4i?| T@t|i t@4T*i

��|� @ t�4�*@|i_ U�h�i uLh }}Mt UL?|i?|t Lu SfI @?_ .DI �? |�i Ui4i?| TL�_ih�

whqwv duh frpsduhg dw gd| 43 dqg 73 +Wdeoh <15,/ vkrz wkdw qr fkdqjhv wdnh sodfhiru wkh fdvh ri :8( vodj1 Iru 93( vodj wkh srurvlw| ydoxhv fkdqjh rqo| voljkwo|krzhyhu lqglfdwlqj d frqwlqxlqj k|gudwlrq +lqfuhdvh ri wkh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq/�, dqg hyroxwlrq ri wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh1 Wklv frq�upv wkdw wkh uhvxowv rewdlqhge| xvlqj pruh wkdq 93( vodj frqwhqw ri wkh fhphqw srzghu lq wkh vlpxodwlrqvduh qrw uhdolvwlf dqg iru wkh uhpdlqghu/ d 93( vodj grvdjh zloo eh xvhg�1

Wkh pdwhuldo sdudphwhuv qrw ordghg lq wkh lqsxw �oh exw gh�qhg lq wkh frghdqg xvhg iru srurvlw| fdofxodwlrqv duh wkh vshfl�f vxuidfh duhdv= ri wkh lqwhuod|hu/v, +Ht1 6149, dqg ri wkh k|gudwhv/ v} +Ht1 614:,1 Lqirupdwlrq iurp olwhudwxuhvwxglhv ^;<` lqglfdwhv wkdw d ydoxh ri 731333 p2 nj3� pd| eh xvhg iru wkh vshfl�fduhd ri wkh k|gudwhv1 Qr h{shulphqwdo gdwd duh dydlodeoh rq wkh vshfl�f duhd ri wkhlqwhuod|hu1 Dovr wkh hpslulfdo uhodwlrq sursrvhg e| Pdhndzd hw do1 ^:4` grhv qrwkrog dw kljk vodj uhsodfhphqwv dv lw jlyhv kljkhu ydoxhv iru wkh lqwhuod|hu srurvlw|wkdq iru wkh fdsloodu| dqg jho sruhv1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ iru vxfk kljk uhsodfhphqwsrzghuv/ d ydoxh ri 7331333 p2 nj3� zdv gluhfwo| xvhg lq wkh GxFRP frgh1Dv wkh vshfl�f vxuidfh duhd ri wkh lqwhuod|hu lv h{shfwhg wr eh odujhu wkdq wkh

�#�� @t _it�}?i_ uLh @ 4@ �4�4 t*@} _Lt@}i Lu |�i Ui4i?| TL�_ih Lu SfI� AL h�?U@*U�*@|�L?t uLh ��}�ih _Lt@}it Ei�}� .DI�c i4T�h�U@* T@h@4i|iht uLh |�i �i@| Lu �)_h@|�L? 4L_i*_itUh�Mi_ �? tiU|�L? ��2c _i|ih4�?i_ uhL4 @_�@M@|�U |i4Tih@|�hi h�ti 4i@t�hi4i?|tc @hi hi^��hi_�


vshfl�f vxuidfh duhd ri wkh k|gudwhv/ d idfwru ri whq gl�huhqfh vhhpv d uhdvrqdeohfkrlfh1 Dovr xvlqj wklv ydoxh/ wkh lqwhuod|hu srurvlw| fdofxodwhg zlwk GxFRP

ehfrphv orzhu wkdq wkh jho dqg wkh fdsloodu| srurvlwlhv1 Gl�huhqfhv ehwzhhqvodj0frqwdlqlqj fhphqwv surgxfhg lq gl�huhqw frxqwulhv duh nqrzq dqg wkxv/ wkhydoxhv ri wkhvh sdudphwhuv kdyh wr eh fruuhvsrqglqjo| dgmxvwhg1 Wkh pdlq jrdori xvlqj GxFRP lv wr rewdlq lqirupdwlrq uhodwhg wr fdsloodu| dqg jho srurvlwlhvdqg wkhlu ghjuhh ri zdwhu0vdwxudwlrq zlwk wlph1 Wkxv/ hyhq wkrxjk wkh lqwhuod|husrurvlw| prgho lv fkdqjhg/ wklv idfw zloo qrw gudvwlfdoo| d�hfw wkh fdsloodu| dqgjho srurvlw| lqirupdwlrq1

Ghshqglqj rq wkh xvhuv suhihuhqfhv/ wkh yduldeohv ri lqwhuhvw fdq eh vhohfwhglq wkh rxwsxw1 Iru wkh suhvhqw lqyhvwljdwlrq wkh ydulrxv srurvlw| w|shv/ sruh0vl}hglvwulexwlrq sur�ohv dqg prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrq gdwd zloo eh dqdo|vhg dqg glvfxvvhg1

b�� #iUhi@ti �? �@|ih UL?|i?| uLh �@h�L�t t@4T*it

Iru wkh wkuhh lqyhvwljdwhg vdpsohv +fhphqw0sdvwh/ pruwdu0vdqg dqg frqfuhwh, wkhfruuhfwqhvv ri wkh vlpxodwlrq uhvxowv lv whvwhg e| frpsdulqj zdwhu orvv gdwd/ l1h1wkh ghfuhdvh ri wkh wrwdo pdvv ri zdwhu frqwdlqhg lq wkh vshflphq fdofxodwhgdqg phdvxuhg1 Doo wkh lqsxw sdudphwhuv lq wkh GxFRP surjudpph duh fkrvhqdffruglqj wr wkh vshfl�fdwlrqv lq vhfwlrq <151

Zlwk GxFRP/ wkh dprxqwv ri wrwdo ciuhh* zdwhu dqg fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg

zdwhu duh fdofxodwhg1 Wkh wrwdo ciuhh* zdwhu +gh�qhg e| Ht1 6168, uhsuhvhqwv wkhdprxqw ri zdwhu +h{foxglqj wkh fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu, frqwdlqhg lq wkhwrwdo sruh vsdfh1 Wkh fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu lv vhsdudwho| fdofxodwhg iurpwkh vwrlfklrphwulf htxdwlrqv ri k|gudwlrq +vhfwlrq 615,1

H{shulphqwdoo|/ wkh exon pdvv p+w, ri wkh vshflphq lv uhfrughg lq wlph1 Wdn0lqj wkh lqlwldo pdvv p+3, ri wkh vshflphq dv uhihuhqfh/ wkh gl�huhqfh zlwk wkhpdvv dw hdfk vxevhtxhqw wlph vwhs lv fdofxodwhg=

�p @p+3,�p+w,= +<14,

Iurp wkh lqlwldo vdpsoh0frpsrvlwlrq gdwd wkh lqlwldo pdvv ri zdwhu/ p�+3,/ lvfdofxodwhg1 Wkh ghfuhdvh lq zdwhu frqwhqw lv wkhq rewdlqhg iurp=

p�+w, @p�+3,��p= +<15,

Lq vhfwlrqv <1614/ <1615 dqg <1616 wkh vxp ri wkh wrwdo ciuhh* zdwhu lqfoxglqjwkh fkhplfdoo| frpelqhg zdwhu dqg wkh h{shulphqwdo ydoxhv fdofxodwhg dffruglqj

<16 Ghfuhdvh lq zdwhu frqwhqw iru ydulrxv vdpsohv 484

wr Ht1 <15/ sorwwhg dv ixqfwlrq ri wlph/ zloo eh vkrzq dqg glvfxvvhg vhsdudwho| iruhdfk ri wkh wkuhh vdpsohv1 Dovr wkh zdwhu frqwdlqhg e| wkh fdsloodulhv/ fdofxodwhgdv wkh surgxfw ehwzhhq wkh yroxph ri wkh sdvwh lq wkh vdpsoh/ wkh fdsloodu|srurvlw| +Ht1 6148, dqg lwv vdwxudwlrq dqg wkh ghqvlw| ri zdwhu/ zloo eh vkrzq1

b�� i4i?| T@t|i U�Mi

Vwduwlqj iurp wkh lqlwldo pdvv ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh vdpsoh +vhfwlrq ;17, dqg wkhzdwhu0fhphqw udwlr dqg dvvxplqj wkdw dw wlph w @ 3 qr k|gudwlrq kdv douhdg|wdnhq sodfh/ wkh lqlwldo pdvv ri zdwhu zdv fdofxodwhg dv 5134 nj1 Wkh yroxphiudfwlrqv ri wkh fhphqw dqg zdwhu lq wkh pl{ +wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh xqlw pdvvdqg wkh ghqvlw|, duh 317 dqg 319/ uhvshfwlyho| dqg/ dv wkh| dgg xs wr xqlw|/ pdvvfrqvhuydwlrq lv reh|hg1 Dv pdvv ghwhuplqdwlrqv zhuh uhfrughg iru 4:4 gd|v/d vlplodu shulrg zdv vlpxodwhg1 Wdeoh <16 vkrzv wkh frqglwlrqlqj klvwru| ri wkhvdpsoh wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh fruuhvsrqglqj whpshudwxuh dqg uhodwlyh kxplglw| ydoxhvxvhg lq wkh vlpxodwlrq1

Wdeoh <16= O�t|Lh) Lu |�i UL?_�|�L?�?} Lu |�i Ui4i?| T@t|i t@4T*i�

Wlph +gd|v, W +�F, UK+(, Revhuydwlrqv30: 53 433 Fxulqj zudsshg lq irlo

:04:4 53 83 Urrp frqglwlrqv

Ilj1 <15 frpsduhv wkh vlpxodwhg +93( jjev, dqg h{shulphqwdo sur�ohv1 Dverwk/ wkh oderudwru| vdpsoh dqg wkh vlpxodwlrq uhihu wr d fhphqw0sdvwh pl{ +qrdjjuhjdwhv suhvhqw, dqg wkh prgho +fkdswhu 6, zdv ghyhorshg iru wkh fhphqw0sdvwh dssur{lpdwlrq/ rqh zrxog h{shfw wkdw wkh wzr zdwhu0orvv sur�ohv gr qrwgl�hu vljql�fdqwo|1 Prvw olnho| wkh gl�huhqfhv ruljlqdwh iurp wkh idfw wkdw lq wkhvlpxodwlrqv d 93( grvdjh ri vodj zdv xvhg iru wkh fhphqw srzghu1 Dgglwlrqdoo|/gl�huhqfhv ehwzhhq vodj fhphqwv surgxfhg lq gl�huhqw frxqwulhv prvw olnho| h{lvw+wkh hpslulfdo sdudphwhuv lq wkh prgho zhuh ghwhuplqhg iru Mdsdqhvh fhphqwzkloh lq wkh oderudwru| vdpsoh fhphqw ri Gxwfk ruljlq zdv xvhg,1

Wkh vlpxodwhg zdwhu0orvv fxuyh lv dfwxdoo| frpsrvhg ri fkhplfdoo| frpelqhgzdwhu +vtxduhv lq Ilj1 <15, dqg frqfuhwh zdwhu frqwhqw +gldprqgv lq Ilj1 <15,1 Dvzdwhu fkdqjhv lwv vwdwxv iurp fdsloodu| ciuhh* lqwr fkhplfdoo| erxqg +d glylvlrqri wkh w|shv ri zdwhu hqfrxqwhuhg lq frqfuhwh zdv ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq 519,/ wkh


time (days)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

mas

s o

f w

ater

(kg

)

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

mass of water(simulated)

mass of water(measured)

chemicallycombinedwater

total freewater content

capillarywater

Iljxuh <15= 5�4�*@|i_ @?_ 4i@t�hi_ �@|ih *Ltt U�h�it uLh @ Ui4i?| T@t|i tTiU�4i? E}}Mt

UL?|i?| SfI�� A�i |�4i i�L*�|�L? Lu |�i U�i4�U@**) UL4M�?i_ �@|ihc |L|@* uhii �@|ih UL?|i?|

@?_ U@T�**@h) �@|ih Et�4�*@|i_ �@*�it� @hi @*tL t�L�?�

hyroxwlrq ri zdwhu frqwdlqhg e| fdsloodulhv +wuldqjohv lq Ilj1 <15, lv dovr vkrzq1Prvw zdwhu zloo fkdqjh lqwr fkhplfdoo| erxqg dw hduo| vwdjhv ri k|gudwlrq +d ihzkrxuv diwhu pl{lqj fhphqw zlwk zdwhu, exw wkh surfhvv frqwlqxhv lq wlph/ dowkrxjkyhu| vorzo|1 Wkh hyroxwlrq ri wkh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq � +Ilj1 <18, sudfwlfdoo|vkrzv wkh vdph ehkdylrxu= d yhu| ylrohqw uhdfwlrq ri k|gudwlrq lpphgldwho| diwhueulqjlqj wrjhwkhu wkh fhphqw dqg wkh zdwhu iroorzhg e| d orqj wlph hyroxwlrq1

Frqfoxvlyho|/ wkh phdvxuhg ghfuhdvh lq wkh zdwhu frqwhqw ri wkh fhphqw0sdvwhvdpsoh lv ghvfulehg zhoo e| wkh GxFRP gdwd fdofxodwhg iru d vpdoohu +93(, jjevshufhqwdjh ri fhphqw frpsduhg wr wkh iudfwlrq lq wkh uhdo srzghu1 Wkh uhvxowv riwkh vlpxodwlrqv dovr lqglfdwh wkh wlph0hyroxwlrq ri ydulrxv w|shv ri zdwhu lq wkhfhphqw sdvwh1 Iru dq lqlwldo zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr e| pdvv ri 317;/ wkh sursruwlrqvri ydsrxulvdeoh +ciuhh*, dqg qrq0ydsrxulvdeoh zdwhu lq wkh fhphqw sdvwh dw wkhhqg ri wkh vlpxodwlrq wlph duh derxw 83( hdfk/ wkh udwh ri fkdqjh lq wkh vwdwh rizdwhu ehlqj vpdoo exw qrq0}hur1


b��2 �Lh|@h�t@?_ U�Mi

Iurp d pl{wxuh frqwdlqlqj vdqg/ fhphqw dqg zdwhu +vhfwlrq ;17, d pruwdu0vdqgfxeh zdv srxuhg zlwk dq lqlwldo pdvv ri 917; nj1 Dvvxplqj wkdw wkh zdwhu0fhphqwdqg vdqg0fhphqw sursruwlrqv lq wkh pl{ duh dovr suhvhuyhg lq wkh vdpsoh/ lq wklvlqlwldo pdvv wkh dprxqwv ri fhphqw +31<5 nj,/ zdwhu +3178 nj, dqg vdqg +814 nj,fdq eh fdofxodwhg1 E| glylglqj hdfk ri wkhvh ydoxhv zlwk wkh exon yroxph ri wkh

time (days)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

mas

s o

f w

ater

(kg

)

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50





capillarywater

Iljxuh <16= 5�4�*@|i_ @?_ 4i@t�hi_ �@|ih *Ltt U�h�it uLh |�i 4Lh|@h�t@?_ tTiU�4i?� W? |�i

t�4�*@|�L? |�i |L|@* 4@tt Lu �@|ih UL?|@�?i_ M) |�i tTiU�4i? �t |�i t�4 Lu |�i |L|@* uhii �@|ihc

U@T�**@h) �@|ih @?_ U�i4�U@**) UL4M�?i_ �@|ih E@*tL t�4�*@|i_ �@*�it��

vdpsoh +617�433S fp�,/ wkh iudfwlrqdo ghqvlw| ri hdfk frpsrqhqw lv ghwhuplqhg1Vlplodu wr wkh fdvh ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh vdpsoh/ wkh iudfwlrq yroxph iru hdfkfrpsrqhqw lv rewdlqhg dv wkh udwlr ehwzhhq wkh iudfwlrqdo pdvv dqg wkh ghqvlw|ri wkh frpsrqhqw +vhfwlrq <15,1 Wkh vxp ri wkh iudfwlrq yroxphv htxdov rqo|31;4/ wkh uhpdlqlqj 315 ehlqj �oohg xs zlwk dlu1 Vlplodu wr wkh frqglwlrqlqj ri wkhfhphqw0sdvwh vdpsoh/ wkh fkdqjh lq wkh uhodwlyh kxplglw| rffxuv diwhu wkh vhyhqgd|v ri fxulqj/ zkhq wkh vdpsoh lv xqzudsshg dqg sodfhg dw urrp frqglwlrqv+Wdeoh <16,1

Ilj1 <16 vkrzv wkh zdwhu0orvv sur�ohv iru wkh pruwdu0vdqg vdpsoh1 Wkhuh lvd 53( gl�huhqfh ehwzhhq wkh lqlwldo zdwhu frqwhqw ri wkh vdpsoh dqg wkh fruuh0


vsrqglqj ydoxh fdofxodwhg zlwk GxFRP1 Lq wkh qxphulfdo vlpxodwlrqv wkhuh lvqr srvvlelolw| wr dffrxqw iru dlu lqfrusrudwlrq vlqfh wkh surjudpph dxwrpdwl0fdoo| uhfdofxodwhv wkh yroxph sursruwlrqv ri wkh frpsrqhqwv wr vxevwlwxwh iru wkhcplvvlqj* +dlu, yroxph1

Lq pdnlqj wkh pruwdu0vdqg vdpsoh/ wkh vwdqgdug sursruwlrqv ehwzhhq djjuh0jdwhv dqg wkh zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr zhuh hpsor|hg +vhh dovr Wdeoh ;15,/ zlwk wkh rqo|gl�huhqfh wkdw lq wkh pruwdu0vdqg vdpsoh wkh judyho frpsrqhqw zdv uhsodfhg e|vdqg1 Wklv uhsodfhphqw vkliwv wkh vl}h glvwulexwlrq ri wkh sduwlfohv lq wkh pl{wxuhwr orzhu ydoxhv dqg wkh wrwdo lqwhuqdo vxuidfh duhd lqfuhdvhv vljql�fdqwo|1 Ehfdxvhwkh dprxqw ri fhphqw dqg zdwhu lq wkh pl{wxuh uhpdlqhg xqfkdqjhg/ wkhuh lvqrw hqrxjk sdvwh wr �oo wkh zkroh yrlg vsdfh1 D surshu ghvljq ri wkh oderudwru|vdpsoh vkrxog kdyh lqfoxghg odujhu dprxqwv ri fhphqw dqg zdwhu dqg/ wkxv/ dovrri sdvwh1 Wklv lv d jrrg h{dpsoh ri zkdw lq wkh frqfuhwh lqgxvwu| lv fdoohg wkhsdvwh uhtxluhphqwv ri wkh pl{wxuh ^;<`1 Wkh uhvxowv rewdlqhg iurp vlpxodwlrqv iruwkh fdvh ri wkh pruwdu0vdqg vdpsoh zloo qrw eh xvhg ixuwkhu> wkh| zhuh suhvhqwhgkhuh wr h{hpsoli| wkh frqfhsw ri sdvwh uhtxluhphqw1

b�� L?Uhi|i U�Mi

Wr prgho d frqfuhwh fxeh/ wkh lqsxw sdudphwhuv zhuh fdofxodwhg rq wkh edvlvri wkh lqirupdwlrq frqwdlqhg lq Wdeoh ;15 iru rqh ri wkh vshflphqv uhfhlyhg dwwkh QJG0NYL lq 4<<:/ zklfk klvwru| dqg lqlwldo pdvv +;149 nj/ phdvxuhg xsrqduulydo,/ duh nqrzq1 Lq vhfwlrq ;15 zh kdyh vhhq wkdw wklv pdvv +frpsrvlwlrq,lv uhsuhvhqwdwlyh iru rxu frqfuhwh whvw vdpsohv1 Dovr d fkhfn rq wkh vxp ri wkhyroxph iudfwlrqv ri wkh frpsrqhqwv uhvxowv lq dgglqj xs wr xqlw|1 Wkh klvwru| riwkh whpshudwxuh dqg uhodwlyh kxplglw| frqglwlrqlqj ri wkh frqfuhwh fxeh lv vkrzqlq Wdeoh <171 Dv wkh h{dfw gxudwlrq dqg frqglwlrqlqj ri wkh vdpsohv gxulqj wkhluwudqvsruw wr wkh QJG0NYL duh qrw h{dfwo| nqrzq lw lv dvvxphg wkdw gd| & 68zdv wkh duulydo gdwh dqg wkdw d 83( uhodwlyh kxplglw| lv d jrrg dssur{lpdwlrq iruwkh uhdo hqylurqphqwdo frqglwlrqv gxulqj wkh wudqvsruw shulrg1 Ilj1 <17 frpsduhvwkh zdwhu0orvv sur�ohv iurp vlpxodwlrqv dqg iurp phdvxuhphqwv1 Dv sulru wr wkhduulydo lq rxu oderudwru| qr ydoxhv iru wkh pdvv ri wkh vshflphq zhuh dydlodeoh/wkh lqlwldo zdwhu frqwhqw frxog qrw eh fdofxodwhg1 E| frpsdulqj wkh gl�huhqfhv lqwkh zdwhu frqwhqw ri wkh vdpsoh dw gd| & 68 +wkh phdvxuhg ydoxh zdv 3189 nj,/ wkhplvvlqj ydoxhv zhuh uhfrqvwuxfwhg e| dgglqj wklv gl�huhqfh wr doo wkh vlpxodwhgydoxhv1 Dffruglqj wr wkhvh fruuhfwlrqv/ wkh lqlwldo pdvv ri zdwhu lq wkh vshflphqzdv 3197 nj dqg wkxv wkh lqlwldoo| wrwdo pdvv zdv ;157 nj1

Gxulqj wkh vwrudjh shulrg +680436 gd|v,/ xqghu vlpxodwhg dv zhoo dv h{shul0


Wdeoh <17= O�t|Lh) Lu |�i UL?_�|�L?�?} Lu |�i UL?Uhi|i t@4T*i�

Wlph +gd|v, W +�F, UK+(, Revhuydwlrq3054 53 433 Xqghuzdwhu fxulqj5405; 53 98 HQFL oderudwru|5;068 53 83 Wudqvsruw680436 53 << Zudsshg lq irlo4360493 53 83 Urrp frqglwlrqv

phqwdo frqglwlrqv/ qr vljql�fdqw fkdqjhv +ohvv wkdq 5(, ri wkh pdvv ri zdwhu lq wkhvshflphq rffxu1 Zkhq vxevhtxhqwo| sodfhg dw urrp frqglwlrqv/ wkh zdwhu0pdvvri wkh oderudwru| vdpsoh ghfuhdvhv e| derxw :(1 Wklv fkdqjh lv qrw uhsurgxfhge| wkh vlpxodwlrqv1 Wklv ghyldwlrq ehwzhhq phdvxuhg dqg vlpxodwhg zdwhu orvvlv vlplodu wr wkh ghyldwlrq revhuyhg iru wkh fhphqw0sdvwh vdpsoh +Ilj1 <15, lq wkhvhqvh wkdw wkh vlpxodwhg fxuyh ryhusuhglfwv wkh h{shulphqwdo gdwd1 Krzhyhu/ wkhghjuhh ri ghyldwlrq lv vpdoohu lq wkh fdvh ri frqfuhwh wkdq iru fhphqw sdvwh1 Dw�uvw kdqg rqh zrxog h{shfw wkdw wkh ghjuhh ri ghyldwlrq zloo vfdoh zlwk wkh udwlrri wkh sdvwh0yroxph yhuvxv wrwdo yroxph ri wkh vdpsoh +3159 iru frqfuhwh,1 Wklvlv krzhyhu qrw wkh fdvh1 Dv ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq 518/ lq frqfuhwh/ dvvrfldwhg zlwkwkh suhvhqfh ri wkh djjuhjdwhv lv wkh djjuhjdwh0sdvwh lqwhuidfldo }rqh1 Wklv }rqhlv nqrzq wr kdyh d srurvlw| kljkhu wkdq wkh srurvlw| ri wkh exon fhphqw sdvwh dqgwkxv pd| frqwulexwh wr dgglwlrqdo prlvwxuh orvv1 Wkh yhuvlrq ri GxFRP xvhglq wkh vlpxodwlrqv frqvlghuv wkh djjuhjdwhv dv d yroxphwulf suhvhqfh rqo|1 Qrlqwhudfwlrqv ehwzhhq djjuhjdwhv dqg fhphqw sdvwh duh wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw1 Wkxvwklv frxog eh dq h{sodqdwlrq iru wkh revhuyhg glvfuhsdqf| ehwzhhq wkh fdofxodwhgdqg phdvxuhg zdwhu0orvv fxuyhv1

Iurp wkh frpsdulvrq ri wkh zdwhu0orvv sur�ohv lq Ilj1 <15 dqg Ilj1 <17/ zh fdqvhh wkdw wkh ghfuhdvh iru wkh fhphqw0sdvwh vshflphq lv vwhhshu wkdq iru frqfuhwh1Prvw suredeo| wklv ghfuhdvh lv uhodwhg wr wkh gl�huhqw fxulqj wlphv dqg surfhgxuhv+Wdeoh <16 dqg Wdeoh <17,1 Wkh vorsh ri wkh fxuyh ghvfulelqj wkh wlph hyroxwlrq riwkh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq iru frqfuhwh lv vpdoohu frpsduhg wr wkdw iru wkh fhphqw0sdvwh fxeh +Ilj1 <18,1

Lq wklv frpsdulvrq rqh qrwhv wkdw iru sdvwh d ydoxh � @ 3=;8 lv uhdfkhg lq dfrxsoh ri gd|v dqg wkdw � uhpdlqv frqvwdqw dw wkdw ydoxh1 Iru frqfuhwh/ d udslglqfuhdvh rffxuv iru wkh �uvw 58 gd|v iroorzhg e| d frqwlqxrxv exw pruh judgxdo

<17 Srurvlw| dqg sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq 48:

time (days)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

deg

ree

of

hyd

rati

on

, α

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Cement pasteConcrete

Iljxuh <18= �@*U�*@|i_ |�4i i�L*�|�L? Lu |�i _i}hii Lu �)_h@|�L?c �c Lu |�i Ui4i?| TL�_ih �?

Ui4i?| T@t|i t@4T*i @?_ �? UL?Uhi|i uLh @ �@|ih�Ui4i?| h@|�L M) 4@tt Lu f�eH�

b�e �LhLt�|) @?_ TLhi�t�3i _�t|h�M�|�L?

Wkh sruh vsdfh +%, ri d fhphqw sdvwh lq frqfuhwh fdq eh glylghg +vhh Wdeoh <15,lqwr wkh lqwhuod|hu/ %, +Ht1 6149,/ wkh jho/ %}/ dqg wkh fdsloodu|/ %S/ srurvlw|+Ht1 6148,e1 Wkh wlph0hyroxwlrq ri wkhvh srurvlwlhv lq frqfuhwh dqg fhphqw sdvwhkdyh ehhq vlpxodwhg zlwk GxFRP1 Lq Ilj1 <19 wkh uhodwlyh frqwulexwlrqv ri lqwhu0od|hu +vtxduhv lq Ilj1 <19,/ jho +flufohv lq Ilj1 <19, dqg fdsloodu| srurvlw| +wuldqjohvlq Ilj1 <19, wr wkh wrwdo srurvlw| duh vkrzq1 Lpphgldwho| diwhu pl{lqj/ zdwhu �oovwkh zkroh qhwzrun ri sruhv dqg wkxv/ wrwdo dqg fdsloodu| srurvlw| duh htxdo1 Lqwlph dqg zlwk surjuhvvlqj k|gudwlrq/ wkh qhwzrun ri fdsloodu| sruhv lv pdlqo|uhsodfhg e| jho sruhv> wkh lqwhuod|hu sruhv irup rqo| d uhvwulfwhg iudfwlrq1 IurpIlj1 <19 rqh qrwhv wkdw lq fhphqw sdvwh wkh jho0sruh iudfwlrq uhdfkhv lwv pd{lpxplq d shulrg ri rqh wr wzr gd|v/ zklovw iru frqfuhwh wkh jho0sruh iudfwlrq lqfuhdvhvudslgo| lq wkh �uvw 58 gd|v dqg wkhq frqwlqxhv wr lqfuhdvh ryhu wkh wrwdo wlphshulrg1 Wkh dprxqw ri jho sruhv fdq ehfrph odujhu wkdq ri fdsloodulhv +fdsloodulhvzrxog eh �oohg e| wkh jho sruhv, dqg wklv idfw lv dfwxdoo| uhjdughg dv wkh vrxufh

eA�i �iht�L? Lu |�i #�� UL_i �ti_ �? |�i Thiti?| U@*U�*@|�L?t _Lit ?L| @UUL�?| uLh @?)@}}hi}@|i�T@t|i �?|ih@U|�L?t Ei�}�c �?|ihu@U�@* 3L?i��

48; Plfurvwuxfwxudo lqirupdwlrq

ri wkh ghqvh wh{wxuh ri jjev frqfuhwhv zlwk orz srurvlwlhv dqg shuphdelolwlhv1 Iruerwk/ fhphqw sdvwh dqg frqfuhwh/ wkh udwh ri hyroxwlrq iru wkh ydulrxv sruhv lvfohduo| uhodwhg wr wkh ghjuhh ri k|gudwlrq +vhh Ilj1 <18,1

time (days)

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 1750.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

time (days)

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 1750.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

gel porositycapillary porosityinterlayer porosity

Concrete Cement paste

Iljxuh <19= A�4i i�L*�|�L? Lu |�i UL?|h�M�|�L? Lu }i*c U@T�**@h) @?_ �?|ih*@)ih TLhLt�|�it |L |�i

|L|@* TLhLt�|) uLh @ UL?Uhi|i @?_ @ Ui4i?| T@t|i tTiU�4i?�

Wkh wlph0hyroxwlrq ri wkh sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq fdq eh dovr iroorzhg iru fds0loodu| +Ilj1 <1:, dqg jho +Ilj1 <1;, sruhv/ e| hpsor|lqj Ht1 6154 dqg Ht1 6155/uhvshfwlyho|1 Dv douhdg| phqwlrqhg lq vhfwlrq 616/ erwk glvwulexwlrqv duh uhsuh0vhqwhg e| d vlpsolvwlf glvwulexwlrq ixqfwlrq +Ht1 614<, zlwkE wkh jhqhulf srurvlw|0glvwulexwlrq sdudphwhu1 Dv d frqvhtxhqfh ri wklv fkrlfh iru wkh glvwulexwlrq ixqf0wlrq/ wkh vkdsh ri wkh sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq lv lqghshqghqw ri wlphD1 Lq wkh qx0phulfdo fdofxodwlrqv/ wkh ydoxh wkdw fkdqjhv ryhu wlph lv wkdw ri wkh glvwulexwlrqsdudphwhu E dqg lv wkh fdxvh iru wkh glvwulexwlrq ri ehlqj vkliwhg1 Wkh rqo|frqvwudlqw wkdw lv lpsrvhg gxulqj wkh fdofxodwlrqv lv wkdw rq wkh jho0glvwulexwlrqsdudphwhu/ E}1 Dw doo wlphv jho sruhv duh iruphg zlwk wkh vdph fkdudfwhulvwlfv+vhh 518,1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ wkh jho glvwulexwlrq sdudphwhu lv frqvlghuhg frqvwdqw+h{fhsw iru dq lqlwldo ydoxh fruuhvsrqglqj wr d }hur jho srurvlw|,1

Iru fdsloodu| sruhv wkh uhvxowv ri wkh vlpxodwlrqv duh suhvhqwhg lq Ilj1 <1:

DA�i �@*�i Lu |�i tiUL?_ _ih��@|��i Lu |�i _�t|h�M�|�L? ULhhitTL?_�?} |L |�i 4@ �4�4 TLt�|�L?E@| �

�� t @ UL?t|@?| i^�@* |L �

e�

<17 Srurvlw| dqg sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq 48<

log(r[m])

-11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4

po

rosi

ty d

istr

ibu

tio

n d

V/d

(ln

r)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4day 0.01day 1day 5day 21day 160

Concrete Cement paste

log(r[m])

-11 -10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4

day 0.01day 1day 171

Iljxuh <1:= 5�4�*@|i_ |�4i�i�L*�|�L? Lu |�i TLhi�t�3i _�t|h�M�|�L? Lu U@T�**@h) TLhit

E_V%_E*?h�� ? |�i Ui4i?|�T@t|i @?_ UL?Uhi|i t@4T*it L�ih �Sf _@)t @?_ �.� _@)tc hitTiU|��i*)�

iru erwk frqfuhwh dqg fhphqw sdvwh vdpsoh1 Vljql�fdqw ghfuhdvh lq sruh vl}hvpdlqo| rffxu lq wkh hduo| vwdjhv ri k|gudwlrq1 Wklv uhvxow lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkhhyroxwlrq ri wkh ryhudoo fdsloodu| dqg jho srurvlwlhv vkrzq lq Ilj1 <191 Wkh idfwwkdw iru frqfuhwh wkh vkliw ri wkh sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq lv pruh judgxdo lv olnho| dfrqvhtxhqfh ri wkh gl�huhqw fxulqj frqglwlrqv dqg kxplglw| klvwrulhv ri wkh wzrvdpsohv1

Ilj1 <1; vkrzv wkh uhvxowv ri wkh GxFRP vlpxodwlrqv iru wkh jho0sruh vl}hglvwulexwlrq lq fhphqw sdvwh1 Wkh vdph glvwulexwlrq krogv dovr iru frqfuhwh eh0fdxvh ri wkh fhphqw0sdvwh dssur{lpdwlrq xqghu zklfk wkh prgho zdv ghyhorshg1Dv phqwlrqhg/ wkh jho0glvwulexwlrq sdudphwhu kdv ehhq �{hg phdqlqj wkdw lq wkhprgho/ dw doo wlphv/ wkh jho sruhv zloo kdyh lghqwlfdo jhrphwulf surshuwlhv1 Wkhpdlq fkdqjh lq wkh jho sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq rffxuv lq wkh yhu| ehjlqqlqj ri wkhk|gudwlrq surfhvv1 Lqlwldoo| qr jho srurvlw| h{lvwv dqg wkxv dq lqlwldolvdwlrq ydoxhiru E} lv vhw lq wkh surjudp1 Rqfh jho sruhv duh iruphg/ wkh ydoxh ri E} lv fkdqjhgdqg suhvhuyhg dw doo vxevhtxhqw wlph vwhsv1

Ryhudoo/ dw wkh hqg ri wkh vlpxodwlrq wlph lq erwk fhphqw sdvwh dqg frqfuhwhvdpsohv/ wkh vl}hv ri wkh fdsloodu| sruhv zloo eh glvwulexwhg durxqg d ydoxh ri derxw433H p1 Dffruglqj wr wkh gh�qlwlrq lq vhfwlrq 518/ wklv ydoxh lv fkdudfwhulvwlf wrsruhv lq zhoo0k|gudwhg/ uhodwlyho| orz zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr sdvwhv exw lv dq rughu


log(r[m])-10 -9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4p

oro

sity

dis

trib

uti

on

dV

/d(l

nr)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

day 0.011 to 170 days

Iljxuh <1;= �Lhi�t�3i _�t|h�M�|�L? Lu }i* TLhit �? Ui4i?| T@t|i� � t�4�*@h _�t|h�M�|�L? �@t

U@*U�*@|i_ uLh UL?Uhi|i�

ri pdjqlwxgh odujhu wkdq 5 qp/ d ydoxh riwhq frqvlghuhg wr eh wkh gldphwhu rid vwdeoh jho sruh ^434`1 Wkhvh ydoxhv duh pxfk vpdoohu wkdq wkh udgll ri wkhfdsloodu| sruhv +�433Sp, dw wkh lqlwldo vwdjh ri k|gudwlrq +Ilj1 <1;, ^:;`1 Lwvkrxog eh srlqwhg rxw wkdw wkh jho dqg wkh fdsloodu| sruhv kdyh d glvwulexwlrqvsdqqlqj wzr rughuv ri pdjqlwxgh dqg wkxv/ wkhvh sruh glvwulexwlrqv sduwldoo|ryhuods1 Wklv lv dq dgglwlrqdo lqglfdwlrq wkdw d pruh uh�qhg qhwzrun iruphg rijho sruhv lv uhsodflqj/ zlwk wlph/ wkh lqlwldo fdsloodu| sruhv1

Wrwdo srurvlw| ydoxhv iru wkh frqfuhwh dqg fhphqw sdvwh vdpsohv zhuh h{shul0phqwdoo| ghwhuplqhg yld wzr phwkrgv= e| xvlqj wkh oderudwru| vhwxs ghvfulehg lqvhfwlrq :18 dqg e| zdwhu0lpphuvlrq phdvxuhphqwv1 Wkh odwwhu phwkrg uhtxluhvwr dvfhuwdlq wkh pdvv ri wkh frpsohwho| zhw vshflphq +p�e|, dqg fdofxodwh wkhgl�huhqfh zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh pdvv ri wkh ryhq0gulhg vshflphq/ p_o+ 1 Wr rewdlqwkh srurvlw| +%��,/ wklv gl�huhqfh lv wkhq glylghg e| wkh zdwhu ghqvlw| +��, dqgwkh exon yroxph ri wkh vshflphq +YK,=

%�� @6�e|36_o+

4�TK= +<16,

Wkh frqfuhwh vdpsoh zdv gulhg lq d yhqwlodwlrq ryhq dw 483�F zkloh wkh fhphqwsdvwh vshflphq zdv gulhg dw 83�F1 Wkh vshflphqv zhuh gulhg xqwlo qr fkdqjh lq

<18 Prlvwxuh sur�ohv dqg wkhlu wlph hyroxwlrq 494

wkhlu pdvv rffxuuhg1 Wdeoh <18 vxppdulvhv srurvlw| gdwd iru wkh fhphqw sdvwhdqg frqfuhwh vdpsohv dv ghwhuplqhg iru wkh gu| vshflphqv zlwk wkh srurvlphwhu+%R, dqg fdofxodwhg dffruglqj wr Ht1 <16 +%��,1 Lq Wdeoh <18 dovr wkh wzr ydoxhviurp GxFRP vlpxodwlrqv duh jlyhq= wkh wrwdo srurvlw| +%, dqg wkh vxp ri jhodqg fdsloodu| srurvlwlhv +%},. %SR,1 Erwk ydoxhv fruuhvsrqg wr wkh hqg ri wkhvlpxodwlrq wlph/ l1h1 4:4 gd|v iru wkh fhphqw sdvwh fxeh dqg 493 gd|v iru wkhfrqfuhwh1

Wdeoh <18= �L4T@h�tL? Lu 4i@t�hi_ @?_ U@*U�*@|i_ TLhLt�|) �@*�it uLh |�i Ui4i?| T@t|i @?_

UL?Uhi|i t@4T*it�

Srurvlwlhv Sdvwh Frqfuhwhphdvxuhg %R 315;;3133; 3143431344

%�� 3164:31335 313;86313339GxFRP % 3168 313<

%}. %S 315: 313:

Lq jhqhudo wkh vlpxodwlrqv uhsurgxfh wkh h{shulphqwdo gdwd zhoo/ lq ylhz riwkh idfw wkdw wkh vlpxodwlrqv dvvxph d 93( vodj frqwhqw lq wkh fhphqw srzghufrpsduhg wr :8( lq uhdolw|1

b�D �L�t|�hi ThL�*it @?_ |�i�h |�4i i�L*�|�L?

Prlvwxuh sur�ohv dfwxdoo| ghslfw wkh yduldwlrq ri wkh ghjuhh ri zdwhu0vdwxudwlrqri sruhv zlwk srvlwlrq ryhu d vdpsoh1 Erwk/ wkh iudfwlrq ri zdwhu lq fdsloodu|dqg jho sruhv/ pS dqg p} duh fdofxodwhg zlwk d irupxod vlplodu wr Ht1 61671Ehfdxvh wkh vl}h ri wkh fhphqw sdvwh fxeh dqg frqfuhwh vdpsohv lv 48 fp dqg gxhwr wkh v|pphwu| ri wkh sureohp/ prlvwxuh sur�ohv zloo eh uhsuhvhqwhg dv gldjrqdofurvv vhfwlrqv ri wkh wkuhh0glphqvlrqdo fxuyh dw wkuhh gl�huhqw khljkwv +forvh wrwkh vxuidfh/ dw ]� @ 3=:8 fp> dw dq lqwhuphgldwh srvlwlrq/ ]2 @ 6=58 fp dqgwkurxjk wkh fhqwhu dw ]� @ :=8 fp,1 Dw hdfk khljkw/ wkh wlph hyroxwlrq ri wkhfdofxodwhg prlvwxuh0glvwulexwlrq sur�ohv zloo eh vkrzq +Ilj1 <1< dqg Ilj1 <143,1Wkh frqglwlrqlqj ri wkh vdpsohv lv olvwhg lq Wdeohv <16 dqg <171

Wkh sur�ohv iru fdsloodu| dqg jho zdwhu iudfwlrqv lq wkh fhphqw sdvwh vdpsohduh vkrzq lq Ilj1 <1<1


Z1=0.75cm Z2=3.25cm Z3=7.5cm

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14x coordinate (m )

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

mc

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14x coordinate (m )

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14x coordinate (m )

d ay 8d ay 13d ay 25d ay 70d ay 171

Z1=0.75 cm Z2=3.25 cm Z3=7.5 cm

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14x coordinate (m)

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

mg

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14x coordinate (m )

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14x coordinate (m)

day 8day 13day 25day 70day 171

Iljxuh <1<= 5�4�*@|i_ |�4i i�L*�|�L? Lu U@T�**@h) EpS� @?_ }i* Ep}� �@|ih uh@U|�L?t uLh |�i

Ui4i?| T@t|i t@4T*i�

Iru zhw fxulqj/ erwk w|shv ri sruhv duh ixoo| vdwxudwhg zlwk zdwhu +pS dqgp} htxdo xqlw|, dqg wkxv gxulqj wkh fxulqj shulrg/ wkh prlvwxuh sur�ohv ehlqj�dw duh qrw uhsuhvhqwhg1 Qh{w/ wkh vdpsoh lv sodfhg dw urrp frqglwlrqv dqg vwduwvwr gu|1 Wkh sur�ohv vkrz wkdw dw �uvw zdwhu lv uhpryhg iurp wkh fdsloodu| sruhv/vwduwlqj zlwk wkrvh orfdwhg dw wkh vxuidfh +Ilj1 <1<,1 Dw wkh fhqwuh ri wkh fxeh dvpdoo gls rffxuv gxulqj wkh �uvw 58 gd|v1 Wklv gls lv gxh wr wkh ghvlffdwlrq ri wkhvdpsoh uhodwhg wr wkh khdw surgxfwlrq lq wkh k|gudwlrq surfhvvS1 Wkh gls shuvlvwv

S,�i? uLh �?_ih��@|ih U�h�?}c @u|ih Ui4i?| @?_ �@|ih @hi 4� i_c |�i h@|i Lu �i@| *�Mih@|i_ �?|�i �)_h@|�L? ThLUitt �t *@h}ih |�@? |�i h@|i @| ��U� �@|ih _�g�tit� 6Lh @ t�Lh| |�4ic |�i Ui?|h@*hi}�L? Lu |�i t@4T*i �t 4Lhi t|hL?}*) @giU|i_ M) _it�UU@|�L? @?_ |��tc |�i 4L�t|�hi ThL�*iti ��M�| @ UL?U@��|)� `�|� �@|ih t�hhL�?_�?} |�i t@4T*ic |�i �*|ih�Lh ThLUitt Lu i^��*�Mh@|�L?

<18 Prlvwxuh sur�ohv dqg wkhlu wlph hyroxwlrq 496

Z1=0.75 cm Z2=3.25 cm Z3=7.5 cm

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14x coordinate (m)

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14x coord inate (m )

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

mc

0 0 .02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14x coordinate (m )

day 10day 21day 28day 35day 70day 160

Z1=0.75 cm Z2=3.25 cm Z3=7.5 cm

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14x coordinate (m)

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14x coordinate (m )

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

mg

0 0 .02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14x coordinate (m)

day 28day 35day 70day 129day 160

Iljxuh <143= 5�4�*@|i_ |�4i i�L*�|�L? Lu U@T�**@h) EpS� @?_ }i* Ep}, �@|ih uh@U|�L?t uLh @U�M�U UL?Uhi|i t@4T*i�

orqjhu wkdq wkh fkdqjh lq wkh �0ydoxh +Ilj1 <18, dqg orqjhu lq wkh fhqwudo uhjlrqdw ]� wkdq lq wkh fhqwudo uhjlrqv ri ]2 dqg ]�1 Vlploduo|/ wkh zdwhu iudfwlrq ri wkhjho sruhv ghfuhdvhv/ krzhyhu/ uhpdlqlqj dw d kljkhu ohyho wkdq lq fdsloodu| sruhv+Ilj1 <1<,1 Iru erwk w|shv ri sruhv wkh zdwhu orvv lv odujhvw qhdu wkh vxuidfh dqgghfuhdvhv wrzdugv wkh fhqwuh1 H{fhsw iru wkh pdjqlwxgh/ wkh sdwwhuqv duh txlwhvlplodu1

Wkh fkdqjh lq zdwhu frqwhqw ri wkh sruhv lq wkh frqfuhwh vdpsoh frpsduhg wrwkh fhphqw0sdvwh vdpsoh lv fdxvhg e| wkh gl�huhqw gxudwlrqv ri wkh fxulqj wlphv +:

4@) Mi _itUh�Mi_ @t |�i 4L�i4i?| Lu |�i |�L 4@ �4@ �?�|�@**) *LU@|i_ U*Lti |L |�i t�hu@Ui|L�@h_t |�i 4�__*ic i?_�?} ��|� @ u�**) t@|�h@|i_ t@4T*i� A��t T�i?L4i?L? �t �i** !?L�? �?U��* i?}�?iih�?} uLh 4@tt��i UL?Uhi|i t|h�U|�hit E�t�@**) ��|� |�i t�3i Lu �6 Lh 4Lhi� d.�o�


gd|v iru wkh fhphqw sdvwh dqg 54 gd|v iru frqfuhwh,1 Dovr lq frqfuhwh djjuhjdwhvduh suhvhqw1 Krzhyhu/ wkh| duh rqo| frqvlghuhg dv d yroxphwulf fruuhfwlrq/ qrqhri wkhlu lqwhudfwlrqv zlwk wkh fhphqw sdvwh ehlqj wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw1 Wkh idfwwkdw wkh frqfuhwh vshflphq lv orqjhu fxuhg xqghu zdwhu +hqvxulqj zdwhu wr eh lqfrqwdfw zlwk wkh fhphqw sduwlfohv iru d orqjhu wlph, qrw rqo| surylghv d vwurqjhuk|gudwlrq +vhh Ilj1 <18, exw dovr suhvhuyhv wkh prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrq ohyhov orqjhulq erwk fdsloodu| dqg jho sruhv +Ilj1 <143,1

Lw vkrxog eh srlqwhg rxw wkdw/ wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw wkh kxplglw| klvwru| rifrqfuhwh +Wdeoh <17,/ fkdqjhv lq wkh uhodwlyh kxplglw| ri wkh hqylurqphqw prvwo|lq�xhqfh wkh vdwxudwlrq ohyhov ri erwk fdsloodu| dqg jho sruhv orfdwhg lq wkh qhdu0vxuidfh od|hu +7 fp,1 Lq jhqhudo/ wkh vdwxudwlrq ohyhov ri wkh exon ri fdsloodu| dqgjho sruhv zloo eh d�hfwhg zlwk ghod|/ d vorz/ frqwlqxrxv ghfuhdvh lq wlph ehlqjrevhuyhg1

Iru frqfuhwh/ vdwxudwlrq ohyhov frpsdudeoh wr wkrvh iru wkh fhphqw sdvwh duhhyhqwxdoo| rewdlqhg iru wkh sruhv orfdwhg lq wkh vxuidfh od|huv exw dw odwhu wlphvvlqfh wkh vdpsoh zdv h{srvhg xqghu orzhu kxplglw| frqglwlrqv1 Wkh exon yroxphri wkh sruhv lq frqfuhwh suhvhuyhv uhodwlyho| kljk zdwhu0vdwxudwlrq ohyhov srlqwlqjrxw wr dq lqfuhdvhg wruwxrvlw| ri wkh srurxv sdwk gxh wr d orqjhu odvwlqj k|gudwlrqsurfhvv1

b�S �L?U*�t�L?t

Dowkrxjk wkh GxFRP prgho lv exlow xsrq zhoo0nqrzq sk|vlfdo dqg fkhplfdoodzv +fkdswhu 6,/ wr dffxudwho| prgho wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh dqg lwv vdwxudwlrq ohyhovdqg wr ghvfuleh wkhlu wlph hyroxwlrq uhpdlqv gl�fxow ehfdxvh ri wkh frpsoh{lw|ri wkh sureohp1 Pdq| pdwhuldo sdudphwhuv xvhg dv lqsxw e| wkh prgho duh vwlooghwhuplqhg rq dq hpslulfdo edvlv1 Wkh idfw wkdw gl�huhqw frxqwulhv hpsor| gl�hu0hqw pdqxidfwxulqj whfkqltxhv iru fhphqw srzghuv dqg frqfuhwhv/ kdyh gl�huhqwuhflshv iru wkh pl{wxuhv dqg xvh ydulrxv frpsrvlwlrqv iru wkh fhphqw srzghu/pdnh lw kdug wr gh�qh zhoo hvwdeolvkhg/ zruog0zlgh vwdqgdug ydoxhv iru wkhvh pd0whuldo sdudphwhuv1 Pruhryhu/ lq uhdo0olih vdpsohv dovr frqwdlqlqj plfurfudfnv dqgiudfwxuhv zklfk fhuwdlqo| lq�xhqfh wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh dqg wkh ydulrxv wudqvsruwskhqrphqd1 Lq ylhz ri wkhvh gh�flhqflhv lw lv uhpdundeoh wkdw wkh ghyldwlrqv eh0wzhhq vlpxodwhg uhvxowv dqg gdwd duh rq dyhudjh derxw 48(1 Lw lv hyhq h{shfwhgwkdw zlwk pruh dssursuldwh lqsxw sdudphwhu ydoxhv +hvshfldoo| wkh vodj frqwhqw,d ehwwhu djuhhphqw fdq eh uhdfkhg1

Wkh uhvxowv ri wkh vlpxodwlrqv iru wkh fdvh ri vodj0frqwdlqlqj frqfuhwh vkrz

<19 Frqfoxvlrqv 498

wkdw wkh k|srwkhvlv ri xqliruplw| lv d jrrg dssur{lpdwlrq1 Lq uhsuhvhqwlqj frq0fuhwh e| lwv frpsrqhqw fhphqw sdvwh d uhodwlyho| dffxudwh ghvfulswlrq ri wkh pl0furvwuxfwxuh irupdwlrq dqg hyroxwlrq dqg prlvwxuh wudqvsruw lv dfklhyhg1 Wkhuhdvrq iru wkh ghqvh vwuxfwxuh ri jjev frqfuhwh lv wkh odujh dprxqw ri jho sruhvwkdw/ zlwk surfhhglqj k|gudwlrq/ uhsodfhv wkh lqlwldo fdsloodu| qhwzrun1 Qrw rqo|wkh wrwdo dprxqw ri jho sruhv frqwdlqhg lq d vdpsoh lqfuhdvhv zlwk wlph exw dovrwkh sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq vkliwv wrzdugv vpdoohu ydoxhv1 Wkh odujh dprxqw ri jhosruhv lv dovr uhvsrqvleoh iru wkh fkdudfwhulvdwlrq ri wkh prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrq ohyhovlq d vdpsoh1 Lq wkh fdvh ri gu|lqj gxh wr d orzhu uhodwlyh kxplglw| ri lwv hqyl0urqphqw erwk wkh fdsloodu| dqg jho sruhv orrvh zdwhu/ pdlqo| dw wkh rxwvlgh riwkh fxeh1 Dv wkh fdsloodu| sruhv kdyh d odujhu gldphwhu wkhlu zdwhu orvv rffxuvidvwhu wkdq iru wkh jho sruhv1 Hvshfldoo| lq wkh lqwhulru sduw ri wkh fxelf vdpsohvwkh sruhv vwd| zdwhu vdwxudwhg iru d orqj wlph1

Lq frqfuhwh olwhudwxuh yhu| riwhq rqh wklqnv ri jho sruhv dv kdylqj gldphwhuvehwzhhq 418 qp dqg 5qp zklfk lv rqo| rqh rughu ri pdjqlwxgh juhdwhu wkdq wkhvl}h ri zdwhu prohfxohv ^;<`1 Wkxv/ wkh ydsrxu suhvvxuh dqg prelolw| ri dgvruehgzdwhu duh gl�huhqw iurp wkh fruuhvsrqglqj surshuwlhv ri iuhh zdwhu1 Wklv lv dovrwkh pdlq uhdvrq zk| dw doo wlphv +xqohvv vhyhuh gu|lqj frqglwlrqv duh dssolhg/ l1h1UK?43(, jho sruhv duh frqvlghuhg dv ehlqj ixoo| vdwxudwhg zlwk zdwhu1 Iru wkhfdsloodu| dqg jho glvwulexwlrqv fdofxodwhg zlwk GxFRP wkh uhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkhuhodwlyh kxplglw| dqg wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri wkh vdpsoh 0fdofxodwhg dffruglqjwr Nhoylq*v htxdwlrq +Ht1 616:,0 lv vkrzq lq Ilj1 47141 Dffruglqj wr wklv �jxuh/dw uhodwlyh kxplglwlhv ri 83( wkh htxloleulxp vlwxdwlrq +ixoo| zdwhu0vdwxudwhg jhosruhv, h{lvwv rqo| iru jho sruhv zlwk udgll vpdoohu wkdq 418 qp dqg lw lv srvvleohiru sruhv zlwk odujhu gldphwhuv wr orvh zdwhu1 Wklv lv wkh uhdvrq zk| prlvwxuhorvv iurp wkh jho sruhv lq Ilj1 <1< dqg Ilj1 <143 rffxuv1 Krzhyhu/ zh dvvxph wkdwprvw ri wkh frqwulexwlrq wr wkh prlvwxuh orvv iurp wkh jho sruhv lv gxh wr sruhvzlwk glphqvlrqv lq wkh uhjlrq fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkh ryhuods ri wkh fdsloodu| dqgjho sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrqv +8qp wr 43qp,1

Wkh xqghuzdwhu fxulqj wlph lq�xhqfhv wkh hyroxwlrq ri k|gudwlrq +�,> orqjhufxulqj wlphv ohdg wr d ghqvhu plfurvwuxfwxuh +pruh jho sruhv duh ehlqj iruphg,wkdw dovr suhvhuyhv lq wkh exon kljkhu zdwhu0vdwxudwlrq ohyhov1

Doo wkhvh lqwhuqdo fkdqjhv duh idfwruv wkdw lq�xhqfh wudqvsruw ri �xlgv wkurxjkfrqfuhwh dqg dovr kdyh wr eh wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw zkhq prghoolqj udgrq uhohdvh1

��

+@_L?�_�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?| �?UL?Uhi|i

�f�� W?|hL_�U|�L?

Rqh ri wkh txdqwlwlhv wkdw hqwhuv lq wkh frxsolqj0vfkhph ri wkh vwuxfwxuh irupdwlrqri frqfuhwh dqg lwv udgrq0uhohdvh +Ilj1 915,/ lv wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw1

Wzr phwkrgv iru ghwhuplqlqj wkh 222Uq gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq exloglqj pd0whuldov duh suhvhqwhg lq wklv fkdswhu1 Wkh phdvxuhphqw ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwhvghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq :15 xqghuolhv erwk phwkrgv1 Wkh sulqflsoh ri wkh wzr phwk0rgv lv dovr wr d fhuwdlq h{whqw vlplodu dqg lv edvhg rq d frpsdulvrq ri d fdofxodwhgydoxh ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh zlwk dq h{shulphqwdo ydoxh1 Wkh fdofxodwhg udgrq0uhohdvh udwh lv rewdlqhg dv dq dqdo|wlfdo vroxwlrq ri d vlpsol�hg irup ri wkh udgrqgl�xvlrq htxdwlrq +Ht1 715:,1

Wkh �uvw phwkrg +vhfwlrq 4315, xvhv vdpsohv zlwk d fxelfdo ru uhfwdqjxodujhrphwu| dqg kdv dv d suhuhtxlvlwh wkdw d 433( udgrq0wljkw vxuidfh fryhulqjphwkrg lv dydlodeoh1 Wkh fryhu lv vxffhvvlyho| dssolhg rq hdfk vlgh ri wkh vdpsohdqg diwhu hdfk dssolfdwlrq wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ri wkh sduwo| fryhuhg vdpsoh

49:

49; Udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq frqfuhwh

lv phdvxuhg1 Wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lv wkhq ghwhuplqhg iurp wkh udwlrv ri wkhudgrq0uhohdvh udwhv lq sduwo| fryhuhg vlwxdwlrqv dqg wkh udwh fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkhxqfryhuhg vshflphq1

Wkh vhfrqg phwkrg +vhfwlrq 4316, fdq eh dssolhg wr vshflphqv wkdw duh�uvw uhvkdshg lqwr kroorz f|olqghuv1 Lqvlgh wklv f|olqghu d udgrq vrxufh lv hq0forvhg e| d udgrq0wljkw vhdolqj1 Wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lv ghgxfhg iurpd udgrq0uhohdvh phdvxuhphqw rq wkh exloglqj0pdwhuldo vshflphq zlwk hqforvhgudgrq vrxufh dqg xvlqj d vwhdg|0vwdwh vroxwlrq wr wkh udgrq0wudqvsruw htxdwlrq1Dgglwlrqdo lqirupdwlrq derxw wkh srurvlw| dqg prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri wkh vdpsoh lvuhtxluhg lq wklv phwkrg1

Dv wkh sruh0vwuxfwxuh fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri frqfuhwh frqwlqxrxvo| fkdqjh zlwk wkhsurjuhvv ri k|gudwlrq dw hduo| djhv dqg zlwk wkh hqylurqphqwdo frqglwlrqv odwhurq/ wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lv qrw dq|pruh d frqvwdqw1 Iru vrlo ^449` dqg vdqg ^487`lw lv d nqrzq idfw wkdw wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw ghshqgv rq wkh prlvwxuhfrqwhqw ri wkh vdpsoh1 Vhfwlrq 4317 suhvhqwv dqg glvfxvvhv wkh uhvxowv rewdlqhg e|phdvxulqj wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw ri frqfuhwh dw ydulrxv prlvwxuh frqwhqwv1

�f�2 +iU|@?}�*@h%U�M�U@* }iL4i|h)

Dvvxph zh zdqw wr ghwhuplqh wkh udgrq gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw ri d uhfwdqjxoduvdpsoh� ri vlghv O%> O+ dqg O5 dv ghslfwhg lq Ilj1 43141 Lq �uvw lqvwdqfh/ wkh udgrqfrqfhqwudwlrq lv ghulyhg dv d vroxwlrq ri d vlpsol�hg irup ri wkh pxowl0skdvh udgrqgl�xvlrq htxdwlrq +Ht1 7165,1 Gxh wr wkh idfw wkdw wkh hpsor|hg phdvxuhphqwphwkrg +vhfwlrq :15, doorzv udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ghwhuplqdwlrqv xqghu vwhdg|0vwdwhfrqglwlrqv/ wkh wlph ghulydwlyh ri wkh frqfhqwudwlrq lq Ht1 7165/ _�@

_|/ ydqlvkhv1

Dgglwlrqdoo|/ dvvxplqj wkdw wkh uhfwdqjxodu vdpsoh lv lvrwurslf dqg krprjhqhrxv/erwk wkh h�hfwlyh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw Gess +p

2 v3�, dqg wkh exon surgxfwlrq udwhV +Ht1 7166, duh lqghshqghqw ri wkh vsdwldo yduldeohv1 Wkhvh dvvxpswlrqv �qdoo|ohdg wr wkh htxdwlrq=

Gess

�Y2�@E%c+c%�

Y%2. Y2�@E%c+c%�

Y+2. Y2�@E%c+c%�

Y52

�� -?F@+{> |> }, . V @ 3= +4314,

Lq sulqflsoh/ wkh vroxwlrq F@+{> |> }, +Etp3�, ghshqgv qrw rqo| rq wkh gl�x0

vlrq frh�flhqw Gess exw dovr rq wkh udgrq0surgxfwlrq udwh/ V dqg rq wkh udgrqghfd| frqvwdqw/ �-?1 Wkhvh odvw wzr sdudphwhuv rffxu dv d frqvwdqw idfwru lq iurqw

� i ��** UL?t�_ih �ihi |�i 4Lhi }i?ih@* U@ti Lu @ hiU|@?}�*@h }iL4i|h)� A�i i?|�hi 4i|�L_U@? Mi i@t�*) T@h|�U�*@h�ti_ uLh |�i U@ti Lu @ U�M�U@* }iL4i|h) M) ti||�?} u% ' u+ ' u5 ' u�

4315 Uhfwdqjxodu2fxelfdo jhrphwu| 49<

z

LyLx

x

y

Rx

Rx

RyRy

Rz

Rz

Lz

Iljxuh 4314= 5!i|U� Lu |�i hiU|@?}�*@h 4i_��4 Lu t�_it O%> O+ @?_ O5 � A�i hi*i@ti h@|it

U%> U+ @?_ U5 ULhhitTL?_�?} |L |�i {> | @?_ } _�hiU|�L?tc hitTiU|��i*) @hi �?_�U@|i_�

ri vrph ixqfwlrq i wkdw ghshqgv rqo| rq Gess / wkh glphqvlrqv ri wkh uhfwdqjoh/O%> O+ dqg O5 / dqg wkh wkuhh frruglqdwhv= {> | dqg }=

F@+{> |> }, @7

b-?i+Gess > O%� > {�,> zkhuh {�c�c& @ {> |> }= +4315,

Wkh iroorzlqj vwhs lv wr fdofxodwh wkh �x{hv lq hdfk gluhfwlrq +Y�@

Y%�, dqg wkh

fruuhvsrqglqj udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv/ U%� +Et v3�, ri wkh odwhudo vxuidfh ri wkh uhfw0

dqjoh/ D,+p2,/ dffruglqj wr=

U%� @ D,Gess�Y�@

Y%�@ Gess�

] u%�

f

] u%&

f

Y�@

Y%�g{� g{& = +4316,

D vroxwlrq ri wkh iroorzlqj irup zloo eh rewdlqhg=

U%� @7Kb-?

j+Gess > O%�,> +4317,

zkhuh j lv d ixqfwlrq ghshqglqj rq wkh exon gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw Gess dqg wkhglphqvlrqv ri wkh uhfwdqjoh/ O%� / dqg VK lv gh�qhg e| Ht1 71541 Wklv irup ohgxv wr wkh lghd wr jhqhudwh udwlrv ri ydulrxv udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv vxfk wkdw wkhfrqvwdqw idfwru + 7K

b-?, zrxog fdqfho1 D srvvlelolw| wr dfklhyh wklv lv e| vroylqj

Ht1 4314 iru ydulrxv erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv fruuhvsrqglqj wr }hur frqfhqwudwlrq ru}hur �x{ ru d frpelqdwlrq ri wkh wzr +krprjhqhrxv Glulfkohw ru pl{hg erxqgdu|

4:3 Udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq frqfuhwh

frqglwlrqv,1 Lq sudfwlfh/ d }hur �x{ iurp d odwhudo vxuidfh zloo eh dfklhyhg e|fryhulqj wkh vxuidfh zlwk d 433( h�hfwlyh fryhu1 E| vxffhvvlyho| fryhulqj idfhvri wkh uhfwdqjxodu vdpsoh xqwlo wrwdo fryhulqj/ vhyhq udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv fdq ehdqdo|wlfdoo| fdofxodwhg dqg phdvxuhg1 Iru h{dpsoh/ ohw xv ghqrwh wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ri wkh wrwdoo| xqfryhuhg fxeh e| Uf1 Wkh dqdo|wlfdo h{suhvvlrq iruwklv fdvh zrxog eh wkhq fdofxodwhg e| dwwdfklqj wr Ht1 4314 Glulfkohw erxqgdu|frqglwlrqv +vhh Dsshqgl{ D/ vhfwlrq D1416,1 E| fryhulqj wkh { @ 3 idfh ri wkhfxeh rqo|/ l1h1 e| fkdqjlqj wkh erxqgdu| frqglwlrq fruuhvsrqglqj wr wklv idfh lqwrd Qhxpdqq w|sh/ wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ri wkh rqh0vlgh fryhuhg uhfwdqjoh/ U�/ fdqeh fdofxodwhg +vhh Dsshqgl{ D/ vhfwlrq D1516,1 Wkh udwlr -�

-flv lqghshqghqw rq

dq| pdwhuldo sdudphwhuv exw rqo| ghshqgv rq wkh h�hfwlyh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw/Gess / dqg wkh glphqvlrqv ri wkh vdpsoh +O%�,1 Vlploduo|/ zh fdq gh�qh U2 iruwkh fdvh zkhq erwk wkh { @ 3 dqg { @ O% idfhv duh fryhuhg +vhh Dsshqgl{ D/vhfwlrq D1415,/ U� zkhq dovr wkh | @ 3 idfh jhwv fryhuhg +vhh Dsshqgl{ D/vhfwlrq D1515,/ Ue zkhq wkh �x{ rq { @ O+ ydqlvkhv dv zhoo +vhh Dsshqgl{ D/vhfwlrq D1414, dqg/ vlploduo|/ iru wkh } frruglqdwh/ rewdlqlqj UD +vhh Dsshqgl{ D/vhfwlrq D1514, dqg US +zklfk/ reylrxvo|/ htxdov }hur dv qr udgrq �x{ rffxuv,/uhvshfwlyho|1 Wkh orjlf ri slfnlqj h{dfwo| wklv rughu ri fryhulqj wkh idfhv lv wkhiroorzlqj= wkh vlwxdwlrq iru wkh fdvh zkhq wzr rssrvlwh idfhv duh fryhuhg lv uhgxfhgwr d wzr0glphqvlrqdo sureohp zkloh irxu vlghv fryhuhg fruuhvsrqgv wr d rqh0glphqvlrqdo fdvh1 Wklv zd| wkh pdwkhpdwlfv vlpsol�hv ^59`1 Udwlrv duh wkhq wdnhqiru doo udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv U? +zlwk q ehlqj wkh lqgh{ ri wkh qxpehu ri douhdg|fryhuhg idfhv, uhodwlyh wr Uf1 Rqfh djdlq/ wkhvh udwlrv

-?

-f/ duh d ixqfwlrq ri rqo|

wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw Gess dqg wkhuh lv qr qhhg wr ghwhuplqh yld dgglwlrqdoh{shulphqwv wkh ydoxh ri wkh udgrq surgxfwlrq udwh1

D vlpsoh phwkrg iru ghwhuplqlqj wkh udgrq h�hfwlyh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw fdqeh ghyhorshg1 Wkh ydoxhv ri wkh udwlrv -?

-ffdq eh frpsxwhg iru d qxpehu ri

ydoxhv ri wkh vlghv ri wkh vdpsoh +O%> O+ > O5, dqg iru vhyhudo ydoxhv ri wkh h�hfwlyhgl�xvlrq frh�flhqw/ Gess 1 Dffruglqj wr wkh olwhudwxuh ^5<` ydoxhv iru wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq wkh udqjh 433��p2 v3� dqg 433.p2 v3� zhuh phdvxuhg lqfrqfuhwh21 Iru ydoxhv ri Gess lq wklv udqjh/ wkh udwlrv -?

-fyhuvxv q/ wkh qxpehu

ri idfhv ri wkh fxeh wkdw duh fryhuhg/ duh sorwwhg lq Ilj1 4315 iru wkh prvw vlpsohdqg dovr lqwxlwlyh fdvh= d fxelfdo jhrphwu| ri wkh phglxp1

Dffruglqj wr Ilj1 4315 wzr h{wuhph vlwxdwlrqv fdq eh revhuyhg1 Iru ydoxhvri wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw vlwxdwhg dw wkh orzhu hqg ri wkh udqjh hqfrxqwhuhglq olwhudwxuh +Gess @ 433��p2 v3�,/ wkh ydoxhv iru wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwlrv vfdoh

2A�i ULhhitTL?_�?} h@?}i uLh |�i _�g�t�L? *i?}|�c �c �t f�22 |L 22U4�

4315 Uhfwdqjxodu2fxelfdo jhrphwu| 4:4

n, number of faces covered0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Rn/

R0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

D=10-7m2s-1;l=22cm

D=10-8m2s-1; l=7 cm

D=10-9m2s-1; l=2.2 cm

D=10-10m2s-1; l=0.7 cm

D=10-11m2s-1; l=0.22 cm

Iljxuh 4315= +@_L?�hi*i@ti h@|it h@|�Lt -?

-f@t u�?U|�L? Lu |�i ?�4Mih Lu UL�ihi_ u@Uit Eq�

uLh |�i U@ti Lu @ U�M�U@* }iL4i|h) EO @ 48 fp� @?_ uLh �@h�L�t �@*�it Lu |�i M�*! _�g�t�L?

ULi�U�i?|cGess � A�i ULhhitTL?_�?} �@*�i Lu |�i _�g�t�L? *i?}|�c oc @tt�4�?} @ �ffI igiU|��i

UL�ih�?} �@t Mii? �?_�U@|i_�

lqyhuvho| zlwk wkh qxpehu ri fryhuhg idfhv q wkxv/ udgrq0uhohdvh lv d vxuidfh h�hfwrqo| +wkh olqhdu fxuyh,1 Dw wkh kljkhu hqg ri wklv udqjh +Gess @ 433.p2 v3�,udgrq0uhohdvh lv lqghshqghqw ri wkh qxpehu q ri fryhuhg vxuidfhv1 Rqo| zkhq doowkh vxuidfhv duh fryhuhg/ wkh udwlr gursv wr }hur1 Iru wklv ydoxh ri Gess / udgrqlv uhohdvhg iurp wkh hqwluh yroxph ri wkh fxeh1 Iru odujh ydoxhv ri wkh gl�xvlrqfrh�flhqw/ wkh udwlrv ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv -?

-fzloo qrw vljql�fdqwo| gl�hu iurp

xqlw| dqg wkxv rqo| doorz iru orzhu olplw ghwhuplqdwlrq ri wkh ydoxh ri wkh gl�xvlrqfrh�flhqw1 Dv idu dv wkh gl�xvlrq ohqjwk ri udgrq lv frpsdudeoh wr wkh vl}h riwkh vshflphq/ wkh ydoxh ri wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw fdq vwloo eh ghwhuplqhg zlwkuhdvrqdeoh suhflvlrq1

Doo wkh dqdo|wlfdoo| fdofxodwhg udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv +Dsshqgl{ D, duh jlyhq e|d vlpsoh ru grxeoh lq�qlwh Irxulhu vhulhv dqg wkhlu qxphulfdoo| hvwlpdwhg ydoxhvzhuh frpsxwhg e| wuxqfdwlqj wkh vhulhv xs wr d fhuwdlq qxpehu ri whupv1 Wkhvshhg ri frqyhujhqfh dqg wkh vhulhv wuxqfdwlrq huuru lv dqdo|vhg lq vhfwlrq D16/xvlqj d whfkqltxh vlplodu wr wkh rqh hpsor|hg e| Ulehlur ^444`1 Wkh plqlpxpqxpehu ri whupv lq wkhvh vxpv lv ghwhuplqhg vxfk wkdw wkh ghyldwlrq iurp wkhh{dfw vroxwlrq ehfrphv vpdoohu wkdq d fhuwdlq olplw1 Wkh qxpehu ri whupv qhhghgiru dfklhylqj wkh ghvluhg wuxqfdwlrq ghyldwlrq lqfuhdvhv iru vpdoo ydoxhv ri wkh


gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw dqg hvshfldoo| iru wkh fdvh ri wkh grxeoh Irxulhu vhulhv1 Lq doorxu qxphulfdo fdofxodwlrqv ri wkh wuxqfdwhg vxpv iru fxelfdo vdpsohv d qxpehuri 583 whupv lq hdfk ri wkh vxpv vkrzhg wr eh vx�flhqw wr dfklhyh wkh olplw ri433bEt v3�1

Zlwk d frpelqdwlrq ri grxeoh0vlghg doxplqlvhg sro|hwk|ohqh irlo dqg hsr{|joxh +xvhg dv dgkhvlyh,/ idfhv ri d frqfuhwh fxeh odehohg dv FU6 +vhh vhfwlrq ;15,kdylqj wkh frpsrvlwlrq lqglfdwhg lq Wdeoh ;14 zhuh vxffhvvlyho| fryhuhg dqg udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv phdvxuhg1 Ilj1 4316 vkrzv wkh h{shulphqwdo udwlrv ri udgrq0uhohdvhudwhv dv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh qxpehu ri fryhuhg idfhv1Ghvslwh wkh idfw wkdw erwk wkh

n, n u m b e r of c o v e r e d s i d e s

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Rn /

R0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

meanmean+1σ

mean-1σ

Iljxuh 4316= +@|�Lt Lu h@_L?�hi*i@ti h@|it Lu @ UL?Uhi|i U�Mi Et�3i O @ 48 fp, @t u�?U|�L?Lu UL�ihi_ u@Uit E��|� iTL ) }*�i @?_ _L�M*i�t�_i_ @*�4�?�ti_ TL*)i|�)*i?i uL�*� Lu @ UL?Uhi|i

U�Mi� A�i tL*�_ *�?i hiThiti?|t |�i �i�}�|i_ 4i@? E"2'�� A�i _@t�i_ *�?it ULhhitTL?_ |L

|�i �i�}�|i_ 4i@? n%� i |ih?@* ihhLh�

hsr{| joxh ^438` dqg wkh irlo� vkrzhg jrrg udgrq0uhgxfwlrq surshuwlhv/ wkh udwlrehwzhhq wkh h{kdodwlrq udwh ri wkh fxeh zlwk q idfhv fryhuhg/ U?/ dqg ri wkh

�A�i h@_L?�_�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?| Lu |�i uL�* �@t _i|ih4�?i_ d�Deo �t�?} |�i �h@_L?�|h@?tT@hi?U)ti|��T< |�@| UL?t�t|t Lu @ *i@!�|�}�| U)*�?_h�U@* t|@�?*itt�t|ii* *L�ih @?_ �TTih UL4T@h|4i?|tiT@h@|i_ M) @ t�ii| Lu �,�uL�*� A�i *L�ih UL4T@h|4i?| UL?|@�?t @ h@_L? tL�hUi( |�i �TTihUL4T@h|4i?| �t i4T|)� A�i @*T�@ @U|��|) �? ML|� UL4T@h|4i?|t �t 4i@t�hi_� � �@*�i LuE��f2�f�fe��f3�� 42 t3� Lu |�i h@_L?�_�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?| �t _i_�Ui_ uhL4 @ *i@t|�t^�@hit �| Lu|�i @?@*)|�U@* 4L_i* |L |�i _@|@�

4316 F|olqgulfdo jhrphwu| 4:6

xqfryhuhg fxeh/ Uf/ lv qrw vljql�fdqwo| gl�huhqw iurp xqlw|1 Wkh prvw vxusulv0lqj idfw lv wkdw hyhq wkh phdvxuhphqw rq wkh frpsohwho| fryhuhg fxeh grhv qrwuhvxow lq dq| ghfuhdvh lq wkh uhohdvh udwh1 Zh suhylrxvo| dujxhg wkdw wkh udwh riwklv ghfuhdvh ghshqgv rqo| rq wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw/ dvvxplqj d 433(h�hfwlyhqhvv ri wkh fryhu1 Frpsdulvrq ri wkh fdofxodwhg fxuyhv iru dq lghqwlfdojhrphwu| +Ilj1 4315, dqg wkh h{shulphqwdo uhvxowv vkrzv wkdw wkh h{shulphqwdouhvxowv duh qrw frqvlvwhqw zlwk dq| ri wkh suhglfwhg fxuyhv iru 433( h�hfwlyh idfhe| idfh fryhulqj1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw hlwkhu wkh dvvxpswlrq ri wkh fryhulqj ehlqj433( h�hfwlyh lv qrw vdwlv�hg ru wkdw vpdoo ohdnv kdyh ehhq suhvhqw dw wkh hgjhvdiwhu dssolfdwlrq ri wkh irlo1 Lq frpelqdwlrq zlwk d odujh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw/ vxfkrshqlqjv zrxog dqqlklodwh wkh h�hfw ri fryhulqj1

Wr lqyhvwljdwh zkhwkhu wklv k|srwkhvlv lv ydolg/ dq h{wud SH0irlo zdv dwwdfkhgdorqj wkh hgjhv dqg doo mrlqwv zhuh fryhuhg zlwk vlolfrq0fdxone1 Lqvwhdg ri duhgxfwlrq/ dq lqfuhdvh ri <( zdv revhuyhg1 Dq h{kdodwlrq phdvxuhphqw rq wkhvlolfrq fdxon vkrzhg wkdw lw h{kdohv udgrq dw d udwh ri +5718317, �Et o3� v3� dqgzdv uhvsrqvleoh iru wkh lqfuhdvh1

Wkh udgrq wljkwqhvv ri joxhg mrlqwv ri wkh grxeo| doxplqlvhg SH0irlo zdvwhvwhg e| forvlqj wkh 5315 nEt udgrq vrxufh ehwzhhq wzr uhfwdqjxodu slhfhv riirlo +dssur{lpdwho| 53�53fp2, wkdw zhuh mrlqw dw wkhlu hgjhv ryhu d zlgwk ri4fp zlwk wkh hsr{| joxh1 Wkh phdvxuhg ydoxh ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ri wkhcirlo0zudsshg* vrxufh/ +61:93153,�4332Et v3�/ duh rqo| voljkwo| +�43(, vpdoohuwkdq wkh fhuwl�hg ydoxh ri +7157314:,�4332 Et v3�ri wkh ceduh* vrxufh lpso|lqjwkdw wkh joxhg mrlqwv duh fhuwdlqo| qrw udgrq wljkw dqg udgrq fdq hvfdsh hlwkhuwkurxjk wkh hsr{| joxh ru dorqj wkh joxh0irlo lqwhuidfh1

Lq vhdufk iru dq h�flhqw fryhu/ wkh udgrq0uhgxfwlrq idfwru iru ydulrxv rwkhuvhdodqwv zdv lqyhvwljdwhg +pruh lqirupdwlrq zloo eh jlyhq lq fkdswhu 45,1 Do0wkrxjk udgrq0wljkw vhdolqj ri vxuidfhv lv idu iurp wulyldo/ rqh ri wkh prvw uhfhqwo|lqyhvwljdwhg fryhuv +d �ehu0uhlqirufhg sro|phulf uhvlq/ SSWD, doprvw frpsohwho|+<;(, uhgxfhg wkh udgrq uhohdvh iurp frqfuhwh1 Wklv uhvxow rshqv xs qhz srv0vlelolwlhv iru ixwxuh whvwv wkdw zloo ghflgh xsrq wkh sudfwlfdo ihdvlelolw| ri wklvphwkrg1

�f�� )*�?_h�U@* }iL4i|h)

Diwhu wkh olplwhg vxffhvv ri wkh �uvw phwkrg/ d vhfrqg phwkrg iru wkh ghwhupl0qdwlrq ri wkh udgrq gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq frqfuhwh lv sursrvhg1

e�Uh)*@@|!�|c ,*4@c �Ti*_LLh?c A�i �i|�ih*@?_t�


Ohw xv qrz frqvlghu wkh vlwxdwlrq ri d kroorz f|olqghu zlwk lqqhu udglxv d+p,/ rxwhu udglxv e +p, dqg khljkw k +p,/ lq zklfk d udgrq vrxufh ri vwuhqjwkUr +Et v3�, lv hqforvhg lq wkh lqqhu yroxph e| d udgrq0wljkw vhdolqj ri wkh wrsdqg erwwrp vxuidfhv +vhh Ilj1 4317,1 Iru d vwhdg|0vwdwh vlwxdwlrq/ Ht1 7165 lqf|olqgulfdo frruglqdwhv ehfrphv=

GessY2�Yo2

.Gess

4

uY�Yo

.Gess

4

u2Y2�

Yw2.Gess

Y2�Y52

� �-?F . V @ 3= +4318,

b

Rs

h

Iljxuh 4317= OL**L� U)*�?_ih ��|� @ h@_L? tL�hUi Lu t|hi?}|� Ur+Et v3�, i?U*Lti_ �? |�i

�??ih �L*�4i�

Dv wkh frqglwlrqv ghslfwhg lq Ilj1 4317 hqirufh udgldo wudqvsruw +qr ghshq0ghqfh rq wkh } frruglqdwh rffxuv,/ wkh htxdwlrq wr eh vroyhg lv=

GessY2�Yo2

.Gess

4

uY�Yo� �-?F . V @ 3= +4319,

Wkh vroxwlrq ri wklv htxdwlrq lv ghulyhg lq Dsshqgl{ E zkhuh lq Ht1 4319 wkhudgrq surgxfwlrq ri frqfuhwh/ V/ lv qhjohfwhg xqghu wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw lw lvpxfk vpdoohu wkdq wkh surgxfwlrq ri wkh udgrq vrxufh1 Li zh uhzulwh Ht1 E1< dv=

-Sr

-r@

%UfEkK�g�EkK�ngfEkK�U�EkK�

EgfEk@�UfEkK�3gfEkK�UfEk@��n2q@k

EUfEkK�g�Ek@�ngfEkK�U�Ek@��

&2Kq@2k

+431:,

4316 F|olqgulfdo jhrphwu| 4:8

dqg zh phdvxuh wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ri wkh exloglqj pdwhuldo vshflphq zlwk hq0forvhg udgrq vrxufh +USr, wkh ydoxh ri wkh whup rq wkh ohiw0kdqg vlgh ri Ht1 431:fdq eh ghwhuplqhg dqg wkh htxdwlrq fdq eh vroyhg iru � +gh�qhg e| Ht1 E18,D1Surylghg wkdw wkh srurvlw| +%, dqg wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri wkh vdpsoh +p, duhphdvxuhg lqghshqghqwo| +wkxv/ dovr wkh sduwlwlrq fruuhfwhg srurvlw|/ �/ fdq eh fdo0fxodwhg,/ wkh udgrq exon gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lv ghwhuplqhg yld d Qhzwrq urxwlqh+xvlqj Pdwkhpdwlfd 613,1

Wklv phwkrg zdv whvwhg iru wzr kroorz frqfuhwh f|olqghuv ri wkh vdph frp0srvlwlrq +vhfwlrq ;15, dv wkh fxehv lqyhvwljdwhg lq vhfwlrq 43151 Erwk kroorzf|olqghuv 0odehohg dv KF4 dqg KF560 zhuh pdfklqhg iurp frqfuhwh vdpsohv FU4dqg FU56/ uhvshfwlyho| +vhh Ilj1 8 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,1 Wr fkhfn wkh k|0srwkhvlv dffruglqj wr zklfk wkh udgrq surgxfwlrq udwh ri wkh udgrq vrxufh lv pxfkodujhu wkdq wkh surgxfwlrq udwh ri wkh pdwhuldo ri wkh f|olqghu +Dsshqgl{ E,/ wkhudgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri wkh kroorz f|olqghuv zhuh phdvxuhg +Wdeoh 4314,1

Qh{w/ wkh udgrq0vrxufh zdv vxffhvvlyho| hqforvhg lq wkh wzr kroorz f|olqghuv1Wr vhdo wkh vrxufh/ d flufxodu doxplqxp olg dqg d uxeehu glvf zhuh suhvvhg wrhdfk vxuidfh +wrs dqg erwwrp, e| xvlqj wkuhh wkuhdghg urgv1 Ehwzhhq wkh uxeehuglvf dqg wkh frqfuhwh vxuidfh juhdvh/ qrupdoo| xvhg lq ydfxxp dssolfdwlrqv/ zdvdssolhg +vhh Ilj1 8 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,1 D udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phdvxuhphqw+USr, lv shuiruphg diwhu wkuhh zhhnv +wr dssur{lpdwh d vwhdg|0vwdwh vlwxdwlrq,diwhu wkh vhdolqj ri wkh udgrq0vrxufh1 Wkh h�hfwlyhqhvv ri wkh vhdolqj zlwk wkh olgvdqg wkh uxeehu glvfv zdv whvwhg e| xvlqj dq doxplqxp gxpp|S ri dssur{lpdwhglphqvlrqv dv wkh kroorz frqfuhwh f|olqghu +vhh Ilj1 8 lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,1Uhvxowv lqglfdwhg d <<( uhgxfwlrq lq wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh frpsduhg wr wkhudgrq0uhohdvh udwh ri wkh eduh udgrq vrxufh +Wdeoh 4314,1

Iru erwk/ KF4 dqg KF56/ wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ri frqfuhwh lv irxqg wr ehderxw wkuhh rughuv ri pdjqlwxgh vpdoohu wkdq wkh uhohdvh udwh ri wkh eduh udgrqvrxufh dqg dovr 58063 wlphv vpdoohu wkdq wkh uhohdvh udwh ghwhuplqhg iru wkhudgrq vrxufh hqforvhg lq wkh doxplqxp gxpp| +zkhq rqo| 418( iurp wkh udgrqsurgxfhg e| wkh eduh vrxufh lv uhohdvhg,1 Wkh gdwd/ vxppdulvhg lq Wdeoh 4314/ixoo| mxvwli| wkh suhylrxv dvvxpswlrq/ l1h1 wkdw ri qhjohfwlqj wkh surgxfwlrq whup/V lq Ht1 43191 Wkh idfw wkdw wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ri KF56 lv d idfwru ri 416odujhu wkdq wkdw ri KF4 lv prvw suredeo| uhodwhg wr wkh gl�huhqfhv lq wkh ghjuhhvri zdwhu vdwxudwlrq ri wkh wzr vdpsohv +Wdeoh 4315,1 Wkh glvvlplodu glphqvlrqv

D�UULh_�?} |L ,^� e��c |�i ULi�U�i?| k �t i^�@* |L |�i �?�ihti Lu |�i _�g�t�L? *i?}|� Luh@_L?c ��

S�*�4�?�4 �t UL?t�_ihi_ @t Mi�?} h@_L? |�}�|�


Wdeoh 4314= +@_L? hi*i@ti h@|it uLh @ M@hi h@_L? tL�hUi EUr�c @? @*�4�?�4 _�44) ��|�

i?U*Lti_ h@_L? tL�hUi @?_ |�L UL?Uhi|i �L**L� U)*�?_iht EO��c O�2�� |�L�| @?_ ��|� i?U*Lti_

h@_L? tL�hUic V E}��i? �? Et v3�� @?_ USrc hitTiU|��i*)� ,hhLht @hi U@*U�*@|i_ @UULh_�?} |L

,^� ��2H�

Vdpsoh U+Et v3�,Uq vrxufh +715315,4332

Do gxpp| zlwk Uq vrxufh +913315,433e

Frqfuhwh kroorz f|olqghu +KF4, +514314,433D

Frqfuhwh kroorz f|olqghu +KF56, +519314,433D

Kroorz f|olqghu +KF4, zlwk Uq vrxufh +419315,4332

Kroorz f|olqghu +KF56, zlwk Uq vrxufh +61573135,4332

ri wkh wzr kroorz f|olqghuv +erwk/ wkh rxwhu gldphwhu/ e/ dqg wkh yroxph duhodujhu iru KF4 wkdq iru KF56, dqg dovr wkh gl�huhqfhv +dowkrxjk vpdoo, lq wkhydoxhv ri wkh udglxp0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv ehwzhhq wkh wzr frqfuhwh edwfkhv+fkdswhu ;, frxog eh dovr lq�xhqwldo idfwruv1 Udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv zhuh vkrzq +vhhvhfwlrq 441615, wr eh uhodwlyho| vhqvlwlyh wr vpdoo +?43(, yduldwlrqv lq wkh udglxp0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv +frpsduhg wr/ iru h{dpsoh/ dq doprvw lqh{lvwhqw fkdqjhlq wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv fruuhvsrqglqj wr d 58( yduldwlrq lq srurvlwlhv,1 Zlwkwkh hqforvhg udgrq vrxufh/ wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ri KF56 lv djdlq odujhu wkdqwkdw ri KF4/ d uhvxow frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh vlwxdwlrq zkhq qr vrxufh zdv hqforvhg1

Dgglwlrqdo lqirupdwlrq rq wkh glphqvlrqv dqg plfurvwuxfwxudo fkdudfwhulvwlfvri wkh wzr kroorz f|olqghuv lv vxppdulvhg lq Wdeoh 43151 Wkh lqqhu udglxv/ d/ rxwhuudglxv/ e> dqg wkh khljkw/ k> ri wkh kroorz f|olqghuv zhuh rewdlqhg dv dyhudjhv riwhq ghwhuplqdwlrqv zlwk dq hohfwurqlf fdolshu1 Wkh huuru rq wkhvh ydoxhv duh wkhvwdqgdug ghyldwlrq ri wkh whq phdvxuhphqwv1 Wkh sduwlwlrq fruuhfwhg srurvlw| lvfdofxodwhg dffruglqj wr Ht1 715; lq zklfk udgrq vxuidfh dgvruswlrq lv qhjohfwhg+�Kn@ * 3,=

� @ % +4�p. Op,= +431;,

Wkh udgrq vxuidfh0dgvruswlrq frh�flhqw lv lq jhqhudo yhu| vpdoo dqg kdv wr ehwdnhq lqwr dffrxqw rqo| iru frpsohwho| gu| pdwhuldov1 Wkh ghjuhh ri zdwhu vdwx0

4316 F|olqgulfdo jhrphwu| 4::

Wdeoh 4315= #�4i?t�L?t Ed> e> k� @?_ �L*�4it EY � Lu |�i |�L �L**L� U)*�?_iht EO�� @?_

O�2�� LhLt�|�it _i|ih4�?i_ ��|� ML|�c |�i }@t�i T@?t�L? 4i|�L_ E%R, @?_ uhL4 �@|ih �4�

4iht�L? _@|@ E%�� @hi �?_�U@|i_� A�i 4@tt Lu |�i |�L t@4T*it @| |�i |�4i Lu 4i@t�hi4i?|

EPS+,�c uLh |�i _h) EP_o+� @?_ �@|ih UL?_�|�L?i_ EP�e|� t@4T*it �ihi 4i@t�hi_� 6hL4 �L*�

�4i @?_4@tt �?uLh4@|�L? @*tL |�i _i?t�|�it Lu |�i t@4T*it @hi it|�4@|i_� A�i 4L�t|�hi UL?|i?|c

pc �t U@*U�*@|i_ @UULh_�?} |L ,^� �f�b� Nt�?} |�i �?uLh4@|�L? L? TLhLt�|) E�@|ih �44iht�L?

_@|@� @?_ 4L�t|�hi UL?|i?|c |�i T@h|�|�L? ULhhiU|i_ TLhLt�|)c �c �t LM|@�?i_ uhL4 ,^� e�2H�

Sdudphwhu KF4 KF56

d +fp, +517<3136, +517<3136,e +fp, +91:43136, +91633138,k +fp, +471<<3139, +4813;313:,Y +fp�, +4;6353, +48<363,%�� +3145331335, +3145531336,%R +31383134, +313<3135,

PS+,+nj, +7167431334, +61:3831334,P_o++nj, +7149:31334, +618:931334,P�e|+nj, +716;:31334, +61:9<31334,

�+njp3�, +55;363, +558383,p +31:<43133;, +3199;3133<,� +313833133<, +313943133<,

udwlrq ri wkh sruhv/ p> fdq eh hvwlpdwhg xvlqj=

p @�S+, 3 �_o+

��e| 3 �_o++431<,

li wkh pdvv ri wkh kroorz f|olqghuv lv phdvxuhg iru wkuhh vlwxdwlrqv=41 diwhu frpsohwh gu|lqj lq dq ryhq dw 463 �F/ P_o+ +nj,/51 diwhu lpphuvlrq lq zdwhu/ dvvxplqj wkdw wkh hqwluh qhwzrun ri rshq sruhv

zdv �oohg zlwk zdwhu/ P�e| +nj,/61 ehiruh wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ghwhuplqdwlrq/ zlwk d fhuwdlq zdwhu vdwxudwlrq

ri wkh sruhv/ PS+, +nj,1Wkh frqvwdqw pdvv +ghwhuplqhg e| shulrglfdo zhljklqj, uhdfkhg e| wkh kroorz

f|olqghuv zdv frqvlghuhg dv wkh gu| dqg wkh zhw pdvv/ uhvshfwlyho|1Wkh srurvlwlhv ri wkh wzr kroorz f|olqghuv zhuh phdvxuhg zlwk wkh jdv h{sdq0

vlrq phwkrg1 Wkh ydoxhv/ %R/ duh vkrzq lq Wdeoh 43151 Dovr jlyhq duh srurvlw|

4:; Udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq frqfuhwh

ydoxhv fdofxodwhg iurp zdwhu lpphuvlrq gdwd/ %��/ dffruglqj wr=

%�� @��e| 3 �_o+

4�TK> +43143,

zlwk �� wkh ghqvlw| ri zdwhu dqg YK wkh exon yroxph ri wkh kroorz f|olqghuv+fdofxodwhg edvhg rq wkh lqirupdwlrq surylghg lq Wdeoh 4315,1 Wkh glvfuhsdqf|ehwzhhq wkh srurvlw| ydoxhv ghwhuplqhg zlwk wkh wzr phwkrgv dprxqwv wr doprvw83(1 Iru vxfk vpdoo srurvlwlhv dqg frpsolfdwhg jhrphwulhv +dv wkh kroorz f|olqghurqhv,/ wkh jdv h{sdqvlrq phwkrg suryhv wr eh ohvv uholdeoh dqg pruh vhqvlwlyh wrwkh suhflvlrq lq wkh ghwhuplqdwlrq ri wkh yroxph ri wkh vdpsohv wkdq wkh zdwhulpphuvlrq phwkrg wkdq wkh zdwhu lpphuvlrq phwkrg1

Wr ghwhuplqh wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv ri wkh wzr kroorz f|olqghuv/ wkhpdwhuldo sdudphwhuv iurp Wdeoh 4315 zhuh xvhg1 Wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri wkhwzr kroorz f|olqghuv zlwk wkh udgrq vrxufh vhdohg lqvlgh zhuh ghwhuplqhg dqgwkh udwlr*v -Sr

-rfdofxodwhg1 Iru KF4/ Ilj1 4318 uhsuhvhqwv d }rrp0lq iru wkh udqjh

^433S> 433D` fp2 v3� zkhuh wkh vroxwlrq lv orfdwhg +d vlplodu judsk zdv xvhg wrghwhuplqh wkh ydoxh iru wkh udgrq0exon gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw ri KF56,1 Wklv udwlrdqg lwv vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq lv xvxdoo| ghwhuplqhg dv zhljkwhg phdq ri uhshdwhg+xvxdoo| wkuhh, udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phdvxuhphqwv1 Wkh xqfhuwdlqw| lq wkh ghwhupl0qdwlrq ri wkh -Sr

-rudwlr lv dovr wkh odujhvw vrxufh ri xqfhuwdlqw| lq wkh fdofxodwlrq

ri wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw1 Wkh ydoxhv ri wkh udgrq0exon gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw/dffruglqj wr Ht1 431:/ dqg wkh fruuhvsrqglqj ydoxhv ri wkh gl�xvlrq ohqjwkv duholvwhg lq Wdeoh 43161 Dffruglqj wr Ilj1 4315/ iru wkhvh ydoxhv/ udgrq0uhohdvh lv e|idu qrw d vxuidfh h�hfw exw d yroxph grplqdwhg rqh1

Wdeoh 4316= +@_L?�hi*i@ti h@|�Lt E,^� �f�.�c M�*! h@_L?�_�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?|c GKc @?_ ULhhi�

tTL?_�?} _�g�t�L? *i?}|�c oc uLh |�i |�L �L**L� U)*�?_ihtc O�� @?_ O�2�� A�i 4L�t|�hi UL?|i?|c

pc Lu |�i |�L t@4T*it �t @*tL �?_�U@|i_�

Vdpsoh p -Sr

-rGK +p

2 v3�, c+fp,

KF4 31:< +316:3134, +714317,433�f +919315,KF56 319: +31::3135, +515316,433b +4815414,

Wkh phwkrg edvhg rq wkh gl�xvlrq htxdwlrq lq f|olqgulfdo frruglqdwhv +Ht1 4318,fdq eh dssolhg wr vshflphqv wkdw duh �uvw uhvkdshg lqwr kroorz f|olqghuv1 Do0wkrxjk wklv phwkrg uhtxluhv vrph dgglwlrqdo lqirupdwlrq derxw wkh srurvlw| dqg

4317 Prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh ri wkh udgrq gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw 4:<

0.373

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0

Db (10-6m2s-1)

Rcs

/Rs

Iljxuh 4318= #i|ih4�?@|�L? Lu |�i h@_L? M�*! _�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?|c GK+p2 v3�,= A�i tL*�_

*�?it �?_�U@|i |�i �i�}�|i_ 4i@? @?_ t|@?_@h_ _i��@|�L? Lu -Sr

-ruhL4 ��U� |�i �@*�i @?_

�?Uih|@�?|) �? GK @hi U@*U�*@|i_�

prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri wkh vdpsoh lw lv vwloo sudfwlfdeoh dqg jlyhv jrrg lqglfdwlrqvri wkh ydoxhv ri wkh udgrq gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq frqfuhwh1

�f�e �L�t|�hi _iTi?_i?Ui Lu |�i h@_L? _�g�t�L? UL�

i�U�i?|

Wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv ghwhuplqhg iru wkh wzr frqfuhwh kroorz f|olqghuvKF4 dqg KF56 gl�hu/ wkh ydoxh phdvxuhg iru KF4 ehlqj d idfwru ri �yh vpdoohuwkdq wkdw ri KF561 Dv wkh glphqvlrqv ri wkh wzr kroorz f|olqghuv duh frpsdudeohdqg wkh srurvlwlhv qrw vljql�fdqwo| gl�huhqw/ lw lv lq �uvw lqvwdqfh dvvxphg wkdwwkh idfwru uhvsrqvleoh iru wklv gl�huhqfh lv wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri wkh vdpsohvzklfk zdv 48( kljkhu iru KF4 frpsduhg wr KF561

Suhylrxv olwhudwxuh vwxglhv uhsruw wkh iroorzlqj hpslulfdo ghshqghqfh rq wkhprlvwxuh frqwhqw ri wkh udgrq gl�xvlrq0frh�flhqw iru vrlo ^449` dqg vdqg ^487`

4;3 Udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq frqfuhwh

vdpsohv=

G+p, @ Gf h{s+�9p% � 9p�e0, vrlo> +43144,

G+p, @ Gf h{s+�8p� 8pD, vdqg> +43145,

zkhuh Gf lv wkh ydoxh dw p @ 31 Erwk ixqfwlrqv uhvxow lq d udslg ghfuhdvh riwkh exon gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw zlwk lqfuhdvlqj prlvwxuh frqwhqw1 Ht1 43144 zdvrewdlqhg rq d �w wr pruh wkdq rqh wkrxvdqg gl�xvlrq0frh�flhqw phdvxuhphqwviru ydulrxv vrlov1 Ht1 43144 dffrxqwv iru d ghshqghqfh ri wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwrq wkh wrwdo srurvlw|/ %/ ri wkh vdpsoh ^449`1 Ht1 43145 zdv sursrvhg dv dqdowhuqdwlyh iru frduvh0judlqhg vdqg 0zlwk dq dyhudjh vl}h ri +6384=5,�p0 wr wkhfdvh ri vrlo vdpsohv1 Rxu ixuwkhu glvfxvvlrq zloo irfxv rq wkh gl�huhqfhv ehwzhhqwkh fdvh ri vdqg dqg frqfuhwh/ rqo|1

Wkh f|olqgulfdo jhrphwu| phwkrg +vhfwlrq 4316, zdv hpsor|hg wr dvvhv wkhixqfwlrqdo ghshqghqfh ri G rq p iru frqfuhwh1 Wkh wzr kroorz f|olqghuv +KF4dqg KF56, zhuh lpphuvhg lq zdwhu xqwlo dq htxloleulxp vlwxdwlrq zdv uhdfkhg+wkh pdvv/ shulrglfdoo| phdvxuhg/ vkrzhg frqvwdqw ydoxhv,1 Wkhuhdiwhu/ ydulrxvzdwhu vdwxudwlrqv ri wkh frqfuhwh zhuh rewdlqhg e| gu|lqj wkh f|olqghuv vwhs e|vwhs lq d yhqwlodwhg ryhq +dw derxw 83�F,1 Dw hdfk ydoxh ri wkh zdwhu vdwxudwlrqwkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw zdv phdvxuhg1

Wr rewdlq d ghvfulswlrq ri wkh h{shulphqwdo gdwd iru frqfuhwh/ d uhodwlrq+Ht1 43146, vlplodu wr wkh rqh xvhg hduolhu iru vdqg +Ht1 43145, zdv �wwhg yldd ohdvw0vtxduhv phwkrg wr wkh gdwd srlqwv +�oohg flufohv= KF4 dqg �oohg vtxduhv=KF56 lq Ilj1 4319,=

G+p, @Gf h{s+�d+p.pD,,= +43146,

Wklv uhodwlrq +Gf @ +:=4 3=:, � 433bp2 v3�> d @ 5=:9 3=3<> grwwhg olqh lqIlj1 4319, ghvfulehv wkh gdwd txlwh zhoo1 Wkh fxuyh lv pruh ru ohvv vlplodu wr wkdwiru vdqg +rshq flufohv dqg gdvkhg olqh lq Ilj1 4319,/ l1h1 wkh exon udgrq0gl�xvlrqfrh�flhqw ghfuhdvhv lq lqyhuvh sursruwlrq zlwk p dv dq lqfuhdvlqj dprxqw rizdwhu lq wkh sruh vsdfh lqklelwv prvw ri wkh gl�xvlyh wudqvsruw1 Lq whupv riuhodwlyh ydoxhv/ wklv phdqv wkdw wkh udwh ri ghfuhdvh ri wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lqvdqg dqg frqfuhwh lv idvwhu dw kljkhu prlvwxuh frqwhqwv1 Krzhyhu/ wkh ghfuhdvhdw kljk p0ydoxhv lv ohvv vwhhs1 Wkh udwlr G+4,@Gf iru frqfuhwh lv rqo| 916�4332

dowkrxjk lw vkrxog eh frpsdudeoh wr wkh udwlr ri wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwlq zdwhu/ G�+4=5 � 433bp2 v3�, dqg lq dlu/ G@+4=4 � 433Dp2 v3�,=

G+4,

Gf@

%�G�

%�G@

@G�

G@

@ 4=4 � 433e> +43147,

4318 Glvfxvvlrq dqg frqfoxvlrqv 4;4

m

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

D (

m2 s

-1)

10-12

10-11

10-10

10-9

10-8

10-7

10-6

Iljxuh 4319= #iTi?_i?Ui Lu |�i M�*! _�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?| G Lu UL?Uhi|i L? |�i 4L�t|�hi

UL?|i?| p E�**i_ U�hU*itG �L**L� U)*�?_ih �( �**i_ t^�@hitG �L**L� U)*�?_ih 2�� A�i _L||i_ @?_

tL*�_ *�?i @hi *i@t|�t^�@hit �|t Lu ,^� �f�� @?_ ,^� �f��Dc hitTiU|��i*)� 6Lh UL4T@h�tL?c |�i

i Tih�4i?|@* _@|@ uLh t@?_ ELTi? U�hU*it� @?_ |�i ULhhitTL?_�?} �| E_@t�i_ *�?i� Lu ,^� �f��2

@hi @*tL t�L�?�

zkhuh � ghqrwhv wkh wruwxrvlw| +vhh dovr Iljxuh 715,1 Wkdw wklv udwlr lv qrw vdwlv�hge| Ht1 43146 lv suredeo| uhodwhg wr wkh odfn ri gdwd iru G dw kljk p0ydoxhv1 Wrhqirufh wklv udwlr/ Ht1 43147 zdv xvhg dv d frqvwudlqw ri d �w wr wkh gdwd ri wkhiroorzlqj wkuhh0sdudphwhu ixqfwlrq ghvfulelqj wkh p0ghshqghqfh ri G/

G+p, @ Gf h{s+�d+p. epD,,= +43148,

Wklv ixqfwlrq +Gf @ +4=:: 3=39, � 433H p2 v3�> d @ 5=8: 3=3;> e @ 5=883=3;>vrolg olqh lq Ilj1 4319, vhhpv wr ghvfuleh wkh gdwd uhdvrqdeo| zhoo dqg kdv wkhghvluhg ihdwxuh wkdw wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw ghfuhdvhv pruh udslgo| dw kljkhup0ydoxhv1

�f�D #�tU�tt�L? @?_ UL?U*�t�L?t

Wzr phwkrgv iru phdvxulqj gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv ri udgrq lq exloglqj pdwhuldovzhuh suhvhqwhg1 Wkh jhrphwulhv ri wkh lqyhvwljdwhg vdpsohv 0vwdqgdug Gxwfkfrqfuhwh0 zhuh fxelf dqg kroorz f|olqgulf1 Iru wkhvh wzr jhrphwulhv wkh udgrqwudqvsruw htxdwlrq zdv vroyhg dqg wkh wkhruhwlfdo edvlv iru fdofxodwlrq ri wkh

4;5 Udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq frqfuhwh

exon gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw iurp vxffhvvlyh udgrq uhohdvh udwh phdvxuhphqwv rq wkhvdpsohv zdv rxwolqhg1

Wkh phwkrg ghyhorshg iru d fxelfdo jhrphwu| idlov ehfdxvh lqlwldoo| qr udgrq0wljkw +433(, fryhulqj zdv dydlodeoh1 Krzhyhu/ uhfhqw lqyhvwljdwlrqv vxffhhghg lq�qglqj vxfk d fryhu1 Zlwk d ghwhuplqhg <;( h�flhqf| djdlqvw udgrq/ wkh SSWDphpeudqh +d �ehu0uhlqirufhg sro|phulf uhvlq, zloo eh xvhg lq ixwxuh lqyhvwljdwlrqvwr whvw lq pruh ghwdlo wkh sudfwlfdelolw| ri wkh fxelfdo jhrphwu| phwkrg1

Wkh pdlq gudzedfn ri wkh f|olqgulfdo jhrphwu| phwkrg lv wkdw wkh vdpsohvkdyh wr eh uhvkdshg lqwr kroorz f|olqghuv1 Dovr dgglwlrqdo lqirupdwlrq rq wkhsrurvlw| dqg prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri wkh vdpsoh qhhgv wr eh ghwhuplqhg1 Lq doophdvxuhphqwv lw lv dvvxphg wkdw wkh h�flhqf| ri vhdolqj ri wkh udgrq vrxufh lqvlghwkh vdpsoh lv uhsurgxfleoh dqg htxdo wr <<(1 Dq dvvhvvphqw ri wkh sursdjdwlrq rixqfhuwdlqwlhv vkrzhg wkdw wkh huuru lq wkh h{shulphqwdo udwlr lv wkh pdlq vrxufh rixqfhuwdlqw| lq wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw1 Wkh phwkrg lv sudfwlfdeoh dqg jlyhv jrrglqglfdwlrqv ri wkh ydoxhv ri wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq frqfuhwh1 Pruhryhulw dovr doorzv wr ghwhuplqh wkh prlvwxuh0ghshqghqfh ri wkh exon udgrq0gl�xvlrqfrh�flhqw ri frqfuhwh1 Wklv lv dq dgydqwdjh ri wkh f|olqgulfdo jhrphwu| ryhu wkhfxelfdo jhrphwu| phwkrg1 Wr ghwhuplqh d prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh ri wkh gl�xvlrqfrh�flhqw e| hpsor|lqj wkh fxelf jhrphwu| phwkrg/ d vhulhv ri clghqwlfdo* fxehvzrxog eh qhhghg dv qr phdvxuhphqwv fdq eh uhshdwhg rq wkh vdph fxeh1 E| xvlqjerwk phwkrgv dq dgglwlrqdo fkhfn rq wkh vhdolqj h�flhqf| fdq eh rewdlqhg1

Wkh prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh ri wkh exon udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw/ ghvfulehg e|Ht1 43148 dqg vkrzq lq Ilj1 4319/ lv vlplodu wr wkdw ri vdqg1 Wkh rqo| gl�huhqfhlv wkdw wkh udqjh ryhu zklfk wkh fkdqjhv lq G+p, rffxu lv wzr wlphv vpdoohu irufrqfuhwh1 Rq edvlv ri wkh lqirupdwlrq rq srurvlw| dqg lwv glvwulexwlrq glvfxvvhglq vhfwlrq 518 dqg vhfwlrq <17/ sduwo| wklv odujh gl�huhqfh fdq eh h{sodlqhg e| wkhorzhu srurvlw| +idfwru ri wkuhh, ri frqfuhwh1 Sruh0vl}hv lq k|gudwhg fhphqw +jho,h{klelw d qduurz shdn dw dssur{lpdwho| 433bp dqg pdnh xs urxjko| 73( ri wkhwrwdo srurvlw|1 Fdsloodu| sruhv lq frqfuhwh dovr frqvwlwxwh derxw wkh vdph dprxqw+73(, ri wkh wrwdo srurvlw| zlwk d eurdg sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq udqjlqj iurp 433S

wr 433bp1 Vxfk d sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq zloo prvw olnho| uhvxow lq d fdsloodu|sruh vsdfh vhjphqwhg e| jho sruhv wkxv d yhu| wruwxrxv wudqvsruw sdwk iru udgrqwudqvsruw1 Pruhryhu/ wudqvsruw lq wkh yhu| vpdoo sruhv zloo eh grplqdwhg e|Nqxgvhq gl�xvlrq +Iljxuh 715, wkxv wkh ryhudoo exon gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw kdv wr ehlqwhusuhwhg dffruglqj wr Ht1 71731 Frpelqhg/ wkhvh h�hfwv uhvxow lq orz gl�xvlrqfrh�flhqwv1

Ydoxhv uhsruwhg lq olwhudwxuh + ^64`/ ^5;`/ ^<:`/ ^4:4`/ ^76`/ ^437`, iru wkh udgrq0

4318 Glvfxvvlrq dqg frqfoxvlrqv 4;6

gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lq frqfuhwh udqjh iurp :�433�f wr 418�433.p2 v3�1 Qrw rqo|iru udgrq exw dovr iru rwkhu jdvhv +FR2/ R2, lq frqfuhwh vxfk d odujh udqjh rigl�xvlylwlhv lv uhsruwhg1 Gl�huhqw hpsor|hg h{shulphqwdo whfkqltxhv ^4:4` dqg dodfn ri xqliruplw| lq wkh gh�qlwlrq ri wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv + ^64`/ ^443`, frxogeh d �uvw uhdvrq iru vxfk yduldwlrqv1 Dgglwlrqdoo|/ gl�huhqfhv lq wkh jhrphwu| riwkh vdpsohv +vodev ru f|olqghuv, ^448` dqg vdpsoh0wklfnqhvv + ^<:`/ ^78`, duh nqrzqwr eh uhvsrqvleoh iru yduldwlrqv zlwk d idfwru ri 5 wr 81 Djlqj ri frqfuhwh zdv dovrphdvxuhg wr lqfuhdvh wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw zlwk d idfwru ri wzr ^448`1 Lqsudfwlfh/ wkhuh duh pdq| zd|v wr pdqxidfwxuh frqfuhwh1 Wkh lqlwldo zdwhu0fhphqwudwlr/ wkh iudfwlrq ri �qh dqg frduvh djjuhjdwhv lq wkh pl{/ wkh w|sh ri fhphqwlq wkh pl{> fxulqj frqglwlrqv/ kxplglw| klvwru| dqg srurvlw| ri frqfuhwh zloo qrwrqo| lq�xhqfh udgrq0uhohdvh +vhh vhfwlrq 815, exw dovr gl�xvlrq + ^<5`/ ^9;`/ ^443`,1Yhu| riwhq dxwkruv ri ydulrxv vwxglhv frqfoxgh wkdw lw lv vlpso| lpsrvvleoh wrfkdudfwhulvh d jlyhq frqfuhwh e| d vlqjoh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw gxh wr wkh luuhjxodusruh0sdwwhuq fkdudfwhulvwlf ri frqfuhwh wkdw ohdgv wr hqkdqfhg khwhurjhqhlw| dqgfrpsoh{lw| + ^447`/ ^<:`,1

Wkh glvfuhsdqf| ehwzhhq wkh gl�xvlrq gdwd rewdlqhg iru wkh wzr kroorz f|olq0ghuv frxog ruljlqdwh iurp wkh gl�huhqw djh ri wkh wzr vshflphqv/ d glvvlplodusrvw0fxulqj klvwru| ri uhodwlyh kxplglw| frqglwlrqlqj dqg d qrq0xqliruplw| riwkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw1

Lq frqfoxvlrq/ wr fkdudfwhulvh wkh gl�xvlrq surfhvv ri udgrq lq d jlyhq frqfuhwh/�uvw d vwdqgduglvhg phwkrg lv qhhghg1 Wr dyrlg xqghvludeoh yduldwlrqv/ vdpsohvri lghqwlfdo frpsrvlwlrq dqg fxuhg xqghu vlplodu frqglwlrqv kdyh wr eh phdvxuhg1

��

+@_L? hi*i@ti h@|it

�� W?|hL_�U|�L?

Olwhudwxuh vwxglhv +fkdswhu 8, vkrzhg wkdw udgrq uhohdvh iurp frqfuhwh lv wlphghshqghqw1 Lq wklv fkdswhu/ qrw rqo| udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv iurp frqfuhwh exw dovriurp fhphqw sdvwh dqg pruwdu0vdqg pl{wxuhv zhuh lqyhvwljdwhg ryhu d wlph sh0ulrg xs wr rqh |hdu1 Wkh uhvxowv +vhfwlrq 4415,/ frpelqhg zlwk d uhsurgxflelolw|dqdo|vlv ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh phdvxuhphqwv/ srlqwhg rxw wkdw wkh prvw lpsruwdqwidfwru dffrxqwlqj iru wkh yduldwlrqv zlwk wlph lv wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri wkh vdp0soh1 Dfwxdoo|/ prvw ri wkh rwkhu lq�xhqflqj idfwruv +fxulqj frqglwlrqv/ dpelhqwuhodwlyh kxplglw|, fdq eh wudqvodwhg lq whupv ri lqwhuqdo prlvwxuh0vdwxudwlrqv riwkh vdpsohv�1

Wkh ghshqghqfh ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv +H6, rq wkh prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrqri frqfuhwh/ iurp wrwdoo| gu| wr ixoo| vdwxudwhg/ lv lq ghwdlo lqyhvwljdwhg +vhf0

�� hi*@|�L? Mi|�ii? 4L�t|�hi UL?|i?| @?_ @4M�i?| hi*@|��i ��4�_�|) i �t|t @?_ �@t Thi��L�t*)_�tU�tti_ EU�@T|ih ��

4;8

4;9 Udgrq uhohdvh udwhv

time(days)0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Em

(µB

q k

g-1

s-1 )

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

CR1

CR3

CR2 CR8

CR5CR4

CR1CR6

CR2

Iljxuh 4414= +@_L? hi*i@ti h@|it Lu UL?Uhi|i t@4T*it 4i@t�hi_ E@u|ih |�i�h @hh��@*� @| |�i

�B#�kVW� A�i *�?i �t @ *i@t|�t^�@hit �| |�hL�}� |�i _@|@ TL�?|t�

wlrq 4416,1 Glvfxvvhg duh wkh h{shulphqwdo surfhgxuhv +vhfwlrq 441614, dqg dovrwkh qxphulfdo prghoolqj +vhfwlrq 441615,1 Wr dfklhyh d frpsohwh ghvfulswlrq riudgrq wudqvsruw lq frqfuhwh dv ixqfwlrq ri wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw/ wkh prlvwxuhghshqghqfh ri wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw +vhfwlrq 4317, dqg hpdqdwlrq frhi0�flhqw +vhfwlrq 441615, zhuh xvhg1 Lq dgglwlrq/ wkh vhqvlwlylw| lv glvfxvvhg ri wkhqxphulfdoo| fdofxodwhg udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh yduldwlrqv lq wkhydoxhv ri wkh prlvwxuh0lqghshqghqw sdudphwhuv ri wkh prgho +srurvlw|/ udglxp0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrq dqg exon gu| ghqvlw|,1 Edvhg rq uhvxowv lq fkdswhu </ wkhlq�xhqfh ri xvlqj gl�huhqw prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrqv zdv dovr lqyhvwljdwhg1

��2 A�4i _iTi?_i?Ui Lu ,p

Lq �uvw lqvwdqfh/ h{shulphqwdo vwxglhv + ^446`/ ^49<`/ ^48;`, rq udgrq0uhohdvh udwhviurp frqfuhwh vkrzhg wkdw wklv surshuw| lv wlph +djh, ghshqghqw +vhh vhfwlrq 81517,1Wr whvw li rxu gdwd vhw vkrzv d orqj0whup wlph ghshqghqf|/ H60phdvxuhphqwv rifrqfuhwh fxehv iurp wkh �uvw edwfk ri vdpsohv +vhfwlrq ;15, duh suhvhqwhg dw ydu0lrxv vwhsv lq wlph= vwduwlqj gluhfwo| diwhu wkhlu duulydo dw wkh QJG0NYL dqg xswr derxw rqh |hdu +Ilj1 4414,1 Ilj1 4414 lqglfdwhv wkdw wkh H60ydoxhv ri frqfuhwhlqghhg lqfuhdvh lq wkh �uvw 433 gd|v diwhu surgxfwlrq ri wkh frqfuhwh iroorzhg e|d pruh ru ohvv frqvwdqw ydoxh1

Lq Ilj1 4415/ wkh uhvxowv ri wkh NYL phdvxuhphqwv duh dovr sorwwhg +wuldqjohv,

4415 Wlph ghshqghqfh ri H6 4;:

wrjhwkhu zlwk gdwd iurp Urhoriv dqg Vfkrowhq ^446` +flufohv, fruuhvsrqglqj wrfrqfuhwh zlwk vlplodu shufhqwdo frpsrvlwlrq ri fhphqw +:3( eodvwixuqdfh vodjdqg 63( Sruwodqg fhphqw, dv rxu vwdqgdug whvw fxehv1 Urhoriv dqg Vfkrowhq ^446`frqfoxgh iurp wkhlu vwxg| wkdw lq wkh �uvw |hdu diwhu srxulqj ri wkh fxehv2/ wkhH60ydoxhv kdyh lqfuhdvhg e| dssur{lpdwh 418 dowkrxjk wkh ydoxhv ri wkh lqglylgxdo+lghqwlfdo lq vkdsh dqg frpsrvlwlrq, vdpsohv ydulhg frqvlghudeo| lq wklv shulrg1Diwhu rqh |hdu wkh gl�huhqfhv ehwzhhq lqglylgxdo vdpsohv +zlwk dqg zlwkrxwlghqwlfdo frpsrvlwlrq, duh frqvlghudeo| uhgxfhg dqg d ghfuhdvh ri wkh H60ydoxhvzlwk lqfuhdvlqj djh ri frqfuhwh lv phdvxuhg1

Age of concrete (y)0 2 4 6 8

Em

(µ B

q k

g-1

s-1

)

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

Iljxuh 4415= A�4i E@}i� _iTi?_i?Ui Lu h@_L?�4@tt i �@*@|�L? h@|it Lu UL?Uhi|i EH6��

Ah�@?}*it hiThiti?| kVW _@|@ Etii @*tL 6�}� �� hU*it hiThiti?| _@|@ uhL4 +Li*Lut @?_

5U�L*|i? d��o ��|� @ t�4�*@h TihUi?|@* UL4TLt�|�L? Lu Ui4i?| @t |�i kVW t@4T*it�

Wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri wkh QJG0NYL vdpsohv duh d idfwru ri 6 wr 7 vpdoohuwkdq wkrvh ri Urhoriv dqg Vfkrowhq/ srvvleo| ehfdxvh ri wkh gl�huhqw fxulqj wlphxqghu zdwhu +5; gd|v iru wkh QJG0NYL vdpsohv dqg rqo| : gd|v iru wkh vdpsohvri Urhoriv dqg Vfkrowhq,1 Krzhyhu/ wkh rqh0|hdu wlph0vsdq ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvhudwhv lv vlplodu/ d idfwru ri 418 lqfuhdvh lq 533 gd|v ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhviru rqh ri wkh QJG0NYL frqfuhwh fxehv +FU5, ehlqj phdvxuhg1 Frpsduhg dw dfhuwdlq wlph vwhs/ wkh vsuhdg ehwzhhq wkh gdwd srlqwv lv dovr frpsdudeoh lq wkh

2W? 6�}� ��2 L?*) hit�*|t Lu .6�4i@t�hi4i?|t L? UL?Uhi|i t@4T*it UL?|@�?�?} M*@t|u�h?@Uit*@} @hi t�L�?� OL�i�ihc �? |�i t|�_) M) +Li*Lut @?_ 5U�L*|i? d��oc |�i .6 Lu UL?Uhi|i t@4T*it��|� �@h�L�t Ui4i?| |)Tit @hi 4i@t�hi_�

4;; Udgrq uhohdvh udwhv

wzr vwxglhv +�58(,1

D srvvleoh fdxvh iru wkh revhuyhg vsuhdg lq wkh H60ydoxhv lv wkh gl�huhqfh lqwkh zd| dqg gxudwlrq ri vwrudjh ri wkh frqfuhwh vdpsohv1 Wkhvh gl�huhqfhv frxogohdg wr ydulrxv ghjuhhv ri prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrqv dw wkh wlph ri phdvxuhphqw1 Lqjhqhudo/ vdpsohv vwruhg xqghu lqgrru0frqglwlrqv +FU7, udwkhu wkdq zudsshg lqsodvwlf irlo +FU6/ FU8, vkrz kljkhu ydoxhv ri H61

Iru zhw +kljko| zdwhu0vdwxudwhg, frqfuhwh vdpsohv/ wkh uhsurgxflelolw| ri wkhH60ydoxhv +dw 83(UK, udqjhv ehwzhhq 9( dqg 45( dqg lw lv lqihulru wr wkhvwdqgdug ydoxh ri wkh phwkrg/ l1h1 derxw 5( +Vhfw1 :1517,1 Frqfuhwh vdpsohvzudsshg lq irlo dqg vwruhg iru d orqj wlph lqwhuydo +�; wr < prqwkv, dovr h{kle0lwhg d uhsurgxflelolw| ri derxw 9(1 Krzhyhu/ iru urrp0frqglwlrqhg vdpsohv wkhuhsurgxflelolw| +406(, lv vlplodu wr wkh phwkrgv vwdqgdug ydoxh +5(,1 Iru vdpsohwkdw zhuh qrw suhylrxvo| htxloleudwhg xqghu lqgrru frqglwlrqv +83(UK,/ gxulqjwkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phdvxuhphqwv dq lqfuhdvhg uhodwlyh kxplglw| ohyho ri wkhrxwjrlqj �rz lq wkh QJG vhwxs zdv uhfrughg iru dq lqfrplqj �rz ri 83( UK 1Fruuhodwhg wr d orvv lq zhljkw ri wkh vdpsohv/ wklv lqglfdwhv wkdw wkhuh zdv d orvvri zdwhu iurp wkh vdpsohv gxulqj wkh phdvxuhphqwv1 Wkxv/ wkh uhsurgxflelolw| riwkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phdvxuhphqwv lv lq�xhqfhg e| wkh fkdqjhv lq wkh uhodwlyhkxplglw| ri wkh �rz dqg zloo ghshqg rq wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri wkh vdpsohv1 Wrdyrlg vxfk fkdqjhv lq prlvwxuh frqwhqw dqg dfklhyh d jrrg ydoxh iru wkh uhsur0gxflelolw| lq wkh ghwhuplqdwlrq ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri frqfuhwh/ phdvxuhphqwvvkrxog hlwkhu wdnh sodfh dw kljkhu uhodwlyh kxplglw| +;8(0<3(, ru diwhu vwrulqjwkh vdpsohv xqghu lqgrru frqglwlrqv +83(UK, iru vrph shulrg1

Wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri wkh pl{wxuhv +fhphqw0sdvwh dqg pruwdu0vdqg fxeh,pdqxidfwxuhg lq wkh QJG0NYL oderudwru| +vhfwlrq ;17, zhuh dovr phdvxuhg ryhud shulrg xs wr 533 gd|v +Ilj1 4416,1 Erwk wkh fhphqw0sdvwh dqg pruwdu0vdqg fxehzhuh fxuhg zudsshg lq sodvwlf irlo iru wkh �uvw zhhn1

WkhH6 ydoxhv ri wkh fhphqw0sdvwh vdpsoh lqfuhdvh d idfwru ri 418 iurp wkh hqgri fxulqj +gd| :, xs wr 533 gd|v1 Wklv lqfuhdvh lv frpsdudeoh wr wkdw phdvxuhgiru frqfuhwh1 Dv vkrzq lq fkdswhu ;/ wkh vxp ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri wkhgu| frpsrqhqwv rqo| ehfrphv frpsdudeoh wr wkh udqjh ri ydoxhv phdvxuhg irufrqfuhwh li wkh frqwulexwlrq iurp wkh fhphqw sdvwh lv dovr lqfoxghg1 Lqghhg/ li rqhuhvfdohv wkh H6 lq Ilj1 4416 zlwk wkh iudfwlrq ri fhphqw sdvwh lq frqfuhwh +48(,/wkh H60ydoxhv ehfrph frpsdudeoh zlwk wkrvh iru frqfuhwh lq Ilj1 44151

Dv h{sodlqhg lq vhfwlrq <1615/ wkh pl{ sursruwlrqv iru wkh pruwdu0vdqg vdpsohzhuh qrw fkrvhq lq d fruuhfw zd| vxfk wkdw wkh dprxqw ri fhphqw sdvwh zdvorzhu wkdq uhtxluhg dqg d yhu| srurxv vdpsoh +xqolnh frqfuhwh, zdv rewdlqhg1

4415 Wlph ghshqghqfh ri H6 4;<

Zdwhu zdv dovr revhuyhg qrw wr eh zhoo uhwdlqhg lq vxfk d vdpsoh1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/edvhg rq rxu suhvhqw nqrzohgjh/ zh fdq dvvxph wkdw d txlfnhu gu|lqj wkdq iruwkh fhphqw0sdvwh zdv rewdlqhg uhvxowlqj lq d vpdoohu dprxqw ri jho0sruhv dqgd ohvv ghqvh dqg wruwxrxv plfurvwuxfwxuh1 Wkh ghfuhdvh zlwk wlph lq wkh H60ydoxhv ri wkh pruwdu0vdqg vdpsoh lq Ilj1 4416 fdq eh h{sodlqhg rq edvlv ri vxfkdvvxpswlrqv1 Krzhyhu/ wkhvh ydoxhv fdq qrw eh frqvlghuhg dv uhsuhvhqwdwlyh iruwkh pruwdu +fhphqw sdvwh dqg vdqg, frqwulexwlrq lq d vwdqgdug frqfuhwh fxeh1

Vlplodu wr wkh fdvh ri frqfuhwh/ wkh uhsurgxflelolw| ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh phd0vxuhphqwv iru wkh iuhvk +zhw, fhphqw sdvwh zdv yhu| srru +79(, zkloh iru durrp0gulhg vdpsoh lw lpsuryhg wr 8(1

time (days)0 50 100 150 200

Em

(µB

qkg

-1s-1

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

cement paste cubemortar (sand) cube

Iljxuh 4416= +@_L?�4@tt i �@*@|�L? h@|it E,6� Lu Ui4i?|�T@t|i @?_ 4Lh|@h�t@?_ 4� |�hit

@t @ u�?U|�L? Lu |�4i E@}i�� A�i t@4T*it @hi U�Mit Lu |�i t@4i _�4i?t�L?t @t |�i UL?Uhi|i |it|

U�Mit�

Zh frqfoxgh wkdw wkh wlph ghshqghqfh ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri frqfuhwh lvd frqwulexwlrq ri pdq| idfwruv ri zklfk wkh ghjuhh ri prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrq lv wkhprvw lpsruwdqw1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ lq wkh qh{w vhfwlrq d ghwdlohg vwxg| lv pdgh rqkrz wkh ghjuhh ri prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrq ri frqfuhwh lq�xhqfhv wkh udgrq0uhohdvhudwhv1

4<3 Udgrq uhohdvh udwhv

�� L�t|�hi _iTi?_i?Ui Lu ,p

Prlvwxuh lv d txdqwlw| dvvrfldwhg zlwk ydulrxv ghjudgdwlrq surfhvvhv lq exlog0lqj pdwhuldov +wudqvsruw ri frqwdplqdqwv/ iuhh}lqj dqg wkdzlqj f|fohv hwf1,1 Wkhdprxqw dqg udwh ri wudqvsruwhg pdwwhu zloo dovr eh vwurqjo| ghshqghqw rq wkhghjuhh ri zdwhu0vdwxudwlrq ri wkh sruhv ^<7`1 Prlvwxuh zdv vkrzq wr eh kljko|lq�xhqwldo rq wkh surfhvv ri udgrq0uhohdvh iru wkh fdvh ri vdqg ^487`1 Lq frqfuhwh/zdwhu sod|v dq lpsruwdqw uroh lq wkh irupdwlrq dqg ghyhorsphqw ri plfurvwuxf0wxuh/ wrr1 Wkh dprxqw ri zdwhu lq wkh lqlwldo pl{wxuh +zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr, dqg wkhdpelhqw kxplglw| frqglwlrqv zhuh uhshdwhgo| suryhq wr lq�xhqfh udgrq0uhohdvhudwhv iurp frqfuhwh + ^46:`/ ^498`/ ^446`,1 Krzhyhu/ krz h{dfwo| udgrq uhohdvh lvgl�huhqw lq frqfuhwh dqg vdqg lv qrw vx�flhqwo| xqghuvwrrg dqg olwwoh olwhudwxuhlqirupdwlrq h{lvwv1

Wr xqghuvwdqg krz erwk udgrq jhqhudwlrq dqg wudqvsruw duh d�hfwhg/ wkh zd|prlvwxuh lq�xhqfhv udgrq0uhohdvh kdv wr eh lqyhvwljdwhg1

�� kVW i Tih�4i?|@* t|�_)

D ghwdlohg vwxg| ri wkh ghshqghqfh ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv/ H6/ rq prlvwxuh frq0whqw zdv xvhg iru frqfuhwh fxeh FU51 Lqlwldoo| H6 zhuh phdvxuhg iru wkh frqfuhwhvdpsoh lpphgldwho| diwhu lwv duulydo dw QJG0NYL +derxw rqh prqwk rog, dqg di0whu vl{ prqwkv1 Wkh rewdlqhg ydoxhv +vtxduhv lq Ilj1 4417, lqglfdwh dq lqfuhdvhzlwk d idfwru ri 41:/ fruuhvsrqglqj wr d fkdqjh lq p ydoxh iurp 31< wr 31;51 Gxu0lqj wkhvh vl{ prqwkv wkh vdpsoh zdv vwruhg zudsshg lq irlo wr suhvhuyh d frqvwdqwuhodwlyh kxplglw| dqg wkh zhljkw ri wkh vdpsoh zdv shulrglfdoo| phdvxuhg1 Wkhfkdqjh lq p/ wkhuhiruh/ lv prvw suredeo| fdxvhg e| wkh kxplglw| htxloleudwlrq riwkh vdpsoh +wr suhvhuyh d ydoxh ri 31< ru kljkhu iru p/ zdwhu0lpphuvlrq zrxogkdyh ehhq uhtxluhg,1

Vxevhtxhqwo|/ wkh fxeh zdv lpphuvhg lq zdwhu +iru dssur{lpdwho| rqh |hdu,dqg shulrglfdoo| zhljkhg xqwlo d frqvwdqw pdvv zdv dfklhyhg1 Wkhq lwv H60ydoxhzdv phdvxuhg +wkh flufoh fruuhvsrqglqj wr p @ 4 lq Ilj1 4417,1 Wkh vdph fxehzdv ixuwkhu gulhg lq vwhsv dw 583�F +xqwlo wrwdoo| gu|,/ dw hdfk vwhs wkh uhohdvhudwh ehlqj uhphdvxuhg +flufohv lq Ilj1 4417,1 Diwhu wklv vhulhv ri phdvxuhphqwv wkhudgrq0uhohdvh udwh iru p @ 3 dqg p @ 4 zhuh uhshdwhg +gldprqgv lq Ilj1 4417,1D vhfrqg vhw ri H6 phdvxuhphqwv ri wkh vdph frqfuhwh fxeh dv ixqfwlrq ri pzdv wkhq fduulhg rxw +wuldqjohv lq Ilj1 4417,1 Wkh vhfrqg sur�oh +gdvkhg olqh lqIlj1 4417, lv vkliwhg uhodwlyh wr wkh �uvw sur�oh +vrolg olqh lq Ilj1 4417, dqg pd|klqw dw dowhudwlrq ri wkh frqfuhwh vwuxfwxuh gxulqj gu|lqj dw kljk whpshudwxuh1

4416 Prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh ri H6 4<4

moisture, m0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Em

(µ B

q k

g-1

s-1

)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

mass (kg)

7.8 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3

1997

1998

Iljxuh 4417= +@_L? 4@tt�i �@*@|�L? h@|it Lu UL?Uhi|i @t u�?U|�L? Lu |�i _i}hii Lu �@|ih

t@|�h@|�L? Lu |�i t@4T*i� A�i ULhhitTL?_�?} |L|@* 4@tt Lu |�i t@4T*i �t �?_�U@|i_ @| |�i |LT�

6hit� @?_ L?i )i@h�L*_ UL?Uhi|i �ihi 4i@t�hi_ �ht| E�**i_ t^�@hit�� A�i |�L U�h�it ULhhitTL?_

|L |�i |�L _h)�?}��i||�?} U)U*it EU�hU*it @?_ |h�@?}*it� @?_ @hi @__i_ |L _�tUh�4�?@|i Mi|�ii?

_@|@ TL�?|t� �i@t�hi4i?|t uLh 4'f @?_ 4'� E_�@4L?_t� �ihi hiTi@|i_ �? Mi|�ii? |�i |�L

tih�it Lu 4i@t�hi4i?|t�

Dv ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq 815/ zdwhu sod|v d vwlpxodwlqj ru d uhwduglqj urohlq udgrq uhohdvh ghshqglqj rq wkh ghjuhh ri vdwxudwlrq1 Vwduwlqj iurp d gu|pdwhuldo/ xs wr d fhuwdlq ydoxh ri p wkh lqfuhdvlqj h�hfwv duh grplqdwlqj dqg/diwhu dq rswlpxp prlvwxuh frqwhqw lv uhdfkhg/ wkh uhgxfhg gl�xvlrq gxh wr wkhsuhvhqfh ri zdwhu zloo wdnh ryhu1 Wkh vkdsh ri wkh sur�ohv lq Ilj1 4417 lv frqvlvwhqwzlwk wkhvh wzr frpshwlwlyh h�hfwv1 Lq wkh qh{w vhfwlrq +vhfwlrq 441615,/ wkh �uvwsur�oh +flufohv lq Ilj1 4417,/ lq zklfk wkh frqfuhwh vwuxfwxuh lv olnho| wr eh wkhohdvw d�hfwhg e| wkh gu|lqj surfhgxuh/ zloo eh prghoohg rq d qxphulfdo edvlv/dffrxqwlqj iru wkh ghshqghqfh ri ydulrxv vwuxfwxudo dqg wudqvsruw sdudphwhuv rqwkh ghjuhh ri prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrq ri wkh sruhv lq frqfuhwh1 Dovr d p�ghshqghqfhri H6 ri frqfuhwh zloo eh frpsduhg wr wkh ghshqghqfh iru vdqg1

��2 �L_i**�?}

Wr prgho H6 dv ixqfwlrq ri p/ wkh UdgPrg zdv hpsor|hg +vhh vhfwlrq 915,1Wr qxphulfdoo| vroyh Ht1 715:/ vrph lqsxw sdudphwhuv zhuh ghwhuplqhg h{shu0


lphqwdoo|1 Wkhvh sdudphwhuv fdq eh rughuhg lq wzr jurxsv/ ghshqglqj xsrqzkhwkhu ru qrw wkh| ghshqg rq wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw1 Dq hvwlpdwh ri wkh prlv0wxuh lqghshqghqw lqsxw sdudphwhuv +F-@/ %/ �K, lv jlyhq �uvw dqg wkhuhdiwhu wkhp0ghshqghqfh ri wkh gl�xvlrq dqg hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqwv duh glvfxvvhg1 Qh{w/wkh lq�xhqfh ri gl�huhqw prlvwxuh0glvwulexwlrqv rq wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri frq0fuhwh lv lqyhvwljdwhg1 Wkh qxphulfdo sur�oh ri wkh p0ghshqghqfh ri udgrq0uhohdvhudwhv lv frpsduhg iru vrph vlpsoh fdvhv zlwk dqdo|wlfdo uhvxowv dqg �qdoo|/ zlwkdq h{shulphqwdo gdwd vhw1 Iru wklv odvw vwhs dovr wkh vhqvlwlylw| lq wkh H6 ydoxhviru udqjhv ri yduldwlrqv ri wkh lqsxw sdudphwhuv lv glvfxvvhg1

Udglxp frqwhqw/ F-@

Iru d edwfk ri fuxvkhg frqfuhwh/ F-@ @+541:319,Etnj3� zdv phdvxuhg1 Wklvydoxh zloo eh frqvlghuhg uhsuhvhqwdwlyh iru wkh udglxp dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrq ri wkh�uvw edwfk ri frqfuhwh vdpsohv1 D ydoxh ri +5517318,Et nj3�/ qrw vljql�fdqwo|gl�huhqw iurp wkh lqlwldo rqh/ zdv odwhu ghwhuplqhg iru d vhfrqg edwfk1 Frq0vlghulqj wkhvh ydoxhv dqg wkhlu dvvrfldwhg xqfhuwdlqwlhv wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv rq wkh ydoxh ri wkh udglxp0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrq F-@ lq wkh udqjh54=3� 56=3Etnj3� lv vwxglhg1

Srurvlw|/ %

Srurvlw| ydoxhv ri frqfuhwh iurp zdwhu lpphuvlrq gdwd zhuh ghwhuplqhg rq wzrkroorz f|olqghuv +vhh Wdeoh 4315, dqg rq frqfuhwh whvw fxeh FU: +% @ 3=446: 3=3338, ^483`1 Iru dqrwkhu frqfuhwh fxeh +FU58, wkh srurvlw| zdv ghwhuplqhgiurp erwk/ zdwhu lpphuvlrq dqg jdv h{sdqvlrq/ wkh ydoxhv ehlqj qrw vljql�fdqwo|gl�huhqw +vhh Wdeoh <18,1 Edvhg rq wklv lqirupdwlrq/ d ydoxh ri % @ 3=448 3=338zloo eh xvhg dv uhsuhvhqwdwlyh iru frqfuhwh�1

Gu| exon ghqvlw|/ �K

Gu| exon ghqvlw| kdv ehhq ghwhuplqhg iru wzr kroorz f|olqghuv +vhh Wdeoh 4315,dqg iru frqfuhwh whvw fxeh FU:1 D ydoxh ri �K @ 5593 63 njp3� zdv vhohfwhgdv ehlqj uhsuhvhqwdwlyh iru frqfuhwh1

Wkh ydoxhv dqg yduldwlrq udqjhv iru udglxp0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv F-@/ srurv0lw| %/ dqg gu| exon ghqvlw| �K/ xvhg lq wkh prgho fdofxodwlrqv duh vxppdulvhg lqWdeoh 44141

�A�i �@*�it uLh |�i TLhLt�|) }��i? �ihi hiThiti?| |�i UL??iU|i_ TLhLt�|)�


Wdeoh 4414= �@ti *�?i �@*�it @?_ h@?}i Lu �@h�@|�L? Lu F-@c %c @?_ �K �ti_ �? |�i ti?t�|��|)

@?@*)t�t Lu 4L_i* U@*U�*@|�L?t� Oihi |�i �@*�it Lu |�i TLhLt�|) hiThiti?| |�i UL??iU|i_ TLhLt�|)�

Sdudphwhu Edvholqh ydoxh Udqjh

F-@+Etp3�, 541:3=9 541305613% 314483=338 3143031458

�K+njp3�, 559363 5563055<3

Udgrq0dgvruswlrq frh�flhqw/ n@

Wkh udgrq0dgvruswlrq frh�flhqw zdv qrw phdvxuhg1 Iru zhw vxuidfhv wklv dgvrus0wlrq lv xvxdoo| dvvxphg wr eh qhjoljleoh + ^449`/ ^487`,1 Iru gu| frqfuhwh vxuidfhvvrph vwxglhv uhsruw wkdw wkh ydoxh ri wkh frh�flhqw pljkw eh qrq0}hur ^456`1Gxh wr odfn ri dq| h{shulphqwdo lqirupdwlrq iru wkh w|sh ri frqfuhwh xvhg lq wklvvwxg|/ n@ zdv vhw wr }hur lq wkh suhvhqw prghoolqj1

Udgrq exon0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw/ G

Wkh udgrq exon0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw zdv ghwhuplqhg iru wzr frqfuhwh kroorz f|olq0ghuv dffruglqj wr wkh phwkrg ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq 43161 Wkh uhvxowv ri wkh phd0vxuhphqwv vkrz wkdw G ghfuhdvhv zlwk lqfuhdvlqj p0ydoxhv +Ilj1 4319,1 Wzrhtxdwlrqv +Ht1 43146 dqg Ht1 43148, zhuh �w wr wkh gdwd srlqwv1 Wkh �uvw htxd0wlrq +Ht1 43146, lv lghqwlfdo wr wkdw hpsor|hg iru wkh fdvh ri vdqg/ krzhyhu/ wkhudwlr ehwzhhq wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv lq ixoo zdwhu0vdwxudwhg +p @ 4, dqgwrwdoo| gu| +p @ 3, frqfuhwh lv qrw lq djuhhphqw zlwk wkh udwlr ri wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv lq zdwhu dqg dlu1 Wkh vhfrqg htxdwlrq +Ht1 43148, lqfoxghvwkh lpsrvhg frqvwudlqw dw p @ 3 dqg p @ 41 Lq wkh prghoolqj surfhgxuh erwkhtxdwlrqv zloo eh xvhg1

Udgrq0hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw/ �

Lq vhfwlrq ;1514 �uvw hvwlpdwhv iru wkh udgrq0hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw lq frqfuhwhzhuh jlyhq edvhg rq F-@ dqg H60ydoxhv1 Wkh revhuyhg yduldwlrq lq wkh ydoxhvzhuh dvvxphg wr eh fdxvhg e| gl�huhqfhv lq prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri wkh vdpsohv dwwkh wlph ri phdvxuhphqw1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ H6 zdv phdvxuhg dw ydulrxv prlvwxuhfrqwhqwv iru d edwfk ri fuxvkhg sduwv surgxfhg iurp rqh ri wkh frqfuhwh fxehv1


Wkh vl}h ri wkh sduwv lv vxfk wkdw hyhq lq frpsohwho| zdwhu0vdwxudwhg frqglwlrqvdoprvw doo udgrq wkdw lv surgxfhg lqvlgh wkh sruh vsdfh lv h{shfwhg wr eh uhohdvhgiurp wkh sduwv1 Wkh pdvv ri zdwhu qhhghg iru vdwxudwlrq +Pr@|, zdv hvwlpdwhgiurp

Pr@| @%��P_o+

�K> +4414,

zlwk �� wkh ghqvlw| ri zdwhu dqg P_o+ wkh gu| pdvv ri wkh fuxvkhg frqfuhwhsduwv1 Wkh srurvlw| ri wkh fuxvkhg sduwv +%, lv qrw d zhoo0gh�qhg txdqwlw| dqglw lv suredeo| vrphzkdw odujhu wkdq wkh srurvlw| ri wkh frqfuhwh fxeh1 Wr ehvxuh wkdw ixoo vdwxudwlrq lv rewdlqhg/ dssur{lpdwho| irxu wlphv wkh dprxqw rizdwhu qhhghg iru vdwxudwlrq zdv dgghg1 Iurp wkh H6 ydoxhv wkh hpdqdwlrqfrh�flhqw � dw p @ 4 zdv ghulyhg +flufohv lq Ilj1 4418,1 Qh{w/ wkh vdpsoh zdv

m

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

η

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Iljxuh 4418= �L�t|�hi _iTi?_i?Ui Lu |�i i4@?@|�L? ULi�U�i?| � Lu UL?Uhi|i E�**i_ U�hU*it�

@?_ t@?_ ELTi? U�hU*itc d�Deo�� A�i tL*�_ *�?i �t @ *i@t|�t^�@hit �| Lu @ *�?i@h hi*@|�L? |L @** _@|@

TL�?|t� A�i _L||i_ *�?i �t �| |L L?*) |�i _@|@ TL�?|t @| 4'f @?_ 4'� ��|� |�i 4'� _@|@

@_��t|i_ uLh _�g�t�L? E�**i_ t^�@hit��

gulhg lq vwhsv dqg wkh p0ydoxh zdv fdofxodwhg e| glylglqj wkh pdvv ri zdwhu lqwkh vdpsoh e| Pr@|1 Zlwk wklv surfhgxuh wkh ydoxhv ri p lq wkh udqjh 3 ? p ? 4duh prvw olnho| ryhuhvwlpdwhv ri wkh dfwxdo p0ydoxhv1 Krzhyhu/ odfnlqj gh�qlwhlqirupdwlrq rq wkh srurvlw| ri wkh fuxvkhg sduwv/ d pruh dffxudwh hvwlpdwh frxog


qrw eh pdgh1 � zdv fdofxodwhg dffruglqj wr Ht1 :1641 Wkh uhvxowv duh jlyhqlq Ilj1 4418 wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh gdwd rewdlqhg e| Ydq ghu Vsrho ^487` iru vlploduphdvxuhphqwv rq vdqg vdpsohv1 Wkh gdwd lq wkh lqwhuydo p @ 3=9�3=; kdyh ehhqphdvxuhg suhylrxvo| +vhfwlrq ;1514,1 Wkh �jxuh lqglfdwhv wkdw wkh hpdqdwlrqfrh�flhqw ri frqfuhwh +�oohg flufohv lq Ilj1 4418, ehkdyhv frpsohwho| gl�huhqwiurp wkdw ri vdqg +rshq flufohv lq Ilj1 4418,1 Iru vdqg/ d yhu| vwhhs lqfuhdvhrffxuv dw orz prlvwxuh frqwhqwv xqwlo d frqvwdqw pd{lpxp ydoxh lv uhdfkhg zklohiru frqfuhwh wkh udgrq hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw lqfuhdvhv olqhduo| zlwk lqfuhdvlqjprlvwxuh frqwhqw ryhu wkh hqwluh udqjh 3 ? p ? 41 D olqhdu ohdvw0vtxduhv �w+�+p, @ d. ep> d @ 3=343 3=33;> e @ 3=5:3 3=349> "2

oe_@ 5=4, vkrzv lqghhg

d jrrg djuhhphqw zlwk wkh h{shulphqwdo gdwd1 Wkh gl�huhqfh lq zklfk prlvwxuhlq�xhqfhv udgrq0hpdqdwlrq lq frqfuhwh frpsduhg wr vdqg lv prvw olnho| d uhvxow riwkh gl�huhqfhv lq wkh sruh vwuxfwxuhv dqg sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq +vhfwlrq <17,1 Lqvdqg zklfk lv dq xqfrqvrolgdwhg srurxv phglxp/ zdwhu hqwhuv dqg fryhuv wkh zdoovri wkh fdsloodu| sruhv doprvw lqvwdqwdqhrxv1 Wkh zdwhu �op uhgxfhv wkh fkdqfhiru wkh uhfrlolqj udgrq dwrp wr eh fdswxuhg lq wkh plqhudo dqg khqfh d vwhhslqfuhdvh dw orz prlvwxuh frqwhqwv dqg d vxevhtxhqw sodwhdx duh revhuyhg1 Dw wkhkljkhvw ydoxh ri p/ zkhuh � lv phdvxuhg wkh sruh vwuxfwxuh lq vdqg lv dssduhqwo|vwloo txlwh rshq iru wudqvsruw ri udgrq1 Rq wkh frqwudu|/ lq frqfuhwh/ wkh sruhv duhjudgxdoo| �oohg/ vwduwlqj zlwk wkh vpdoohvw sruh0vl}hv= wkh jho sruhv1 Wklv zd| wkhsuredelolw| ri uhfrlolqj udgrq wr hqg xs lq wkh sruhv vsdfh lqvwhdg ri shqhwudwlqjwkh plqhudo ri dq dgmdfhqw judlq lv judgxdoo| hqkdqfhg1 Zlwk lqfuhdvlqj prlvwxuhfrqwhqw pruh dqg pruh sruhv zloo eh cdfwlydwhg*1 Dv jho sruhv pdnh xs 73( ri wkhwrwdo srurvlw| +vhfwlrq <17,/ rqo| dw kljk prlvwxuh frqwhqwv fdsloodu| sruhv zloovwduw wr ehfrph zdwhu �oohg1 Erwk/ wkh sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq dqg wkh wuhphqgrxvdprxqw ri jho sruhv/ fkdudfwhulvwlf iru frqfuhwh/ ohdg wr wkh olqhdu lqfuhdvh lq wkhhpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw zlwk lqfuhdvlqj prlvwxuh frqwhqw1

Prlvwxuh frqwhqw/ p

Dw vhyhudo rffdvlrqv xs wr qrz wkh whup cprlvwxuh frqwhqw*/ ghqrwlqj d phdq+sruh0yroxph dyhudjhg, prlvwxuh frqwhqw/ zdv xvhg1 Krzhyhu/ wklv whup grhv qrwfrqwdlq dq| lqirupdwlrq uhjduglqj wkh glvwulexwlrq ri prlvwxuh ryhu wkh srurxvphglxp1 Dv dovr wkh sur�ohv lq Ilj1 <143 lqglfdwh/ lq uhdo0olih/ h{srvxuh wr fkdqj0lqj dpelhqw frqglwlrqv zloo ohdg wr d qrq0xqlirup prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrq1 Iru dfrpsohwh fkdudfwhulvdwlrq/ qrw rqo| d phdq prlvwxuh frqwhqw exw dovr wkh vsdwldoglvwulexwlrq ri prlvwxuh kdv wr eh lqglfdwhg1 Iru wkh lqyhvwljdwhg frqfuhwh whvw


Zero surfacemoisture content

Non-zero surfacemoisture content

Homogeneousmoisture distribution

z (cm)0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

m

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

z (cm)0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

z (cm)0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Iljxuh 4419= OL4L}i?iL�t 4L�t|�hi _�t|h�M�|�L? L�ih @ U�M�U@* EUL?Uhi|i� t@4T*i uLh 4i@?

4L�t|�hi UL?|i?|t Lu f�2c f�ec��f� �?@*)|�U@* 4L�t|�hi _�t|h�M�|�L? ThL�*it uLh 4i@? 4L�t|�hi

UL?|i?|t Lu f��c f�2c��f�b @| ')'.�DU4 @hi @*tL t�L�? uLh @ t�|�@|�L? ��|� 3ihL @?_ ?L?�3ihL

4L�t|�hi @| |�i t�hu@Uit�

fxehv wkh dfwxdo vsdwldo glvwulexwlrq ri prlvwxuh lv xqnqrzqe1 Lq wkh qxphulfdoprghoolqj wkuhh dqdo|wlfdo glvwulexwlrqv zloo eh frpsduhg wr lqyhvwljdwh wkh glv0wulexwlrq h�hfw= d krprjhqhrxv prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrq/ d glvwulexwlrq zlwk }hur

prlvwxuh frqwhqw dw wkh vxuidfhv dqg lqfuhdvlqj p0ydoxhv wrzdugv wkh fhqwuh riwkh fxeh dqg d glvwulexwlrq zlwk qrq0}hur prlvwxuh dw wkh vxuidfhv dqg lqfuhdvlqj

p0ydoxhv wrzdugv wkh fhqwuh +Ilj1 4419,1Wkh odvw wzr glvwulexwlrqv zhuh frqvwuxfwhg iurp sdudphwulvhg lqwhjudeoh

ixqfwlrqv p+{> |> }, ri zklfk wkh phdq prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri wkh fxeh frxog ehfdofxodwhg iurp Ht1 G143 dqg Ht1 G149/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Wkh sdudphwulvdwlrq dqgwkh vwhsv lq wkh dqdo|wlfdo ghulydwlrq duh eulh�| ghvfulehg lq Dsshqgl{ G1 Edvhgrq GxFRP fdofxodwlrqv/ lw zdv dvvxphg wkdw wkh prlvwxuh sur�ohv duh v|pphw0ulfdo +qr qhw prlvwxuh wudqvsruw dw wkh fhqwuh ri wkh fxeh h{lvwv, dqg wklv lv wkhuhdvrq zk| lq Ilj1 4419 wkh prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrqv duh uhsuhvhqwhg iru rqo| kdoiwkh vl}h +:18 fp, ri wkh vwdqgdug frqfuhwh whvw0fxehv1

D krprjhqhrxv prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrq wdnhq dv wkh prvw vlpsoh fdvh lv glv0fxvvhg �uvw1 Rq wkh rqh kdqg/ li zh frqvlghu dq lqlwldoo| wrwdoo| zhw whvw fxeh+p @ 4, wkdw kdv ehhq ohiw wr gu| xqghu ghvlffdwru frqglwlrqv +h1j1 W@53�F dqg

e�?i Lu |�i u�|�hi |@t!t �t |L �?T�| |�i tT@|�@* _�t|h�M�|�L? Lu |�i 4L�t|�hi t@4T*i @t U@*U��*@|i_ ��|� @ �?�|i i*i4i?| 4i|�L_ Ei�}� #�� ? |�i h@_L? 4L_i* E+@_�L_��

4416 Prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh ri H6 4<:

UK@3(, iru d fhuwdlq shulrg ri wlph/ zh pd| h{shfw wkdw dw wkh fhqwhu ri wkhfxeh qrw pxfk kdv fkdqjhg +p @ 4, exw dw wkh vxuidfhv wkh fxeh zloo kdyh orvwprlvwxuh gxh wr wkh uhohdvh wr wkh dwprvskhuh1 Lq �uvw lqvwdqfh lw vhhpv wkdw d}hur prlvwxuh frqwhqw dw wkh vxuidfh +p @ 3, zrxog ehvw ghvfuleh wkh vlwxdwlrqohdglqj wr d judgxdo fkdqjh ri p iurp wkh fhqwhu ri wkh fxeh wr wkh vxuidfh1 Rqwkh rwkhu kdqg/ iru pdq| pdwhuldov +vdqg/ fod|/ fod| eulfnv, olwhudwxuh vwxglhv rqgu|lqj + ^5:`/ ^88`, vkrzhg wkdw wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw kdv d gh�qlwh qrq0}hur ydoxhdw wkh vxuidfhv1 Pruhryhu/ iru fod| eulfnv wkh glvwulexwlrq lv doprvw krprjhqhrxv+zklfk lv wkh prvw vlpsoh fdvh ri glvwulexwlrq zlwk d qrq0}hur prlvwxuh frqwhqwdw wkh erxqgdulhv, ^<7`1 Wkxv/ wkh prvw uhdolvwlf fdvh/ vhhpv wr eh d qrq0}hurprlvwxuh dw wkh vxuidfhv dqg d judgxdo fkdqjh ri p ryhu wkh vdpsoh1

Prghoolqj uhvxowv

Lq vhfwlrq 4315/ d phwkrg zdv ghyhorshg wr phdvxuh udgrq gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwvlq srurxv pdwhuldov +frqfuhwh, ri uhfwdqjxodu dqg2ru fxelf jhrphwu|1 Dqdo|wlfdovroxwlrqv zhuh ghulyhg +vhh dsshqgl{ D, iru wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri frqfuhwhzlwk vxffhvvlyho| fryhuhg vxuidfhv +zlwk d udgrq lqwudqvsduhqw phpeudqh, irusrvlwlrq0lqghshqghqw wudqvsruw sdudphwhuv1 Wkh vroxwlrqv ri wkh udgrq uhohdvhudwhv lq wkh 4G0 dqg 6G0vlwxdwlrqv +krprjhqhrxv Glulfkohw erxqgdu| frqglwlrqvHt1 D1< dqg Ht1 D16</ uhvshfwlyho|, zhuh frpsduhg wr wkh uhvxowv ri wkh qxphulfdofdofxodwlrqv +UdgPrg, dvvxplqj d krprjhqhrxv prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrq dqg dovr dvoljkwo| gl�huhqw p0ghshqghqfh ri wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw ^47:` wkdq ghvfulehglq vhfwlrq 4416151 Wkh dqdo|wlfdo vroxwlrqv zhuh lq jrrg djuhhphqw +zlwklq 506(,zlwk wkh qxphulfdo uhvxowv +Ilj1 441:, zklfk lqglfdwhv wkdw wkh qxphulfdo prgholv uholdeoh dqg dffxudwh hqrxjk iru fdvhv zlwk srvlwlrq0lqghshqghqw wudqvsruwsdudphwhuv1

Wkh vlwxdwlrqv zlwk wkh k|srwkhwlfdo qrq0krprjhqhrxv prlvwxuh sur�ohv +Ilj14419, frxog qrw eh kdqgohg zlwk wkh dqdo|wlfdo vroxwlrqv ehfdxvh wkh wudqvsruwsdudphwhuv ehfrph prlvwxuh ghshqghqw dqg khqfh srvlwlrq ghshqghqw1 Wkh qx0phulfdo prgho zdv frqvwuxfwhg wr ghdo zlwk qrq0dqdo|wlfdo vlwxdwlrqv1 Wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv zhuh lqlwldoo| fdofxodwhg +UdgPrg, iru d krprjhqhrxv prlvwxuh glv0wulexwlrq rq edvlv ri wkh lqsxw sdudphwhuv olvwhg lq Wdeoh 4414/ d olqhdu uhodwlrqehwzhhq � dqg p +vrolg olqh/ Ilj1 4418, dqg iru erwk ghvfulswlrqv +zlwk dqg zlwk0rxw frqvwudlqwv, ri wkh p0ghshqghqfh ri wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw +Ht1 43146 dqgHt1 43148,/ uhvshfwlyho|1

Dowkrxjk wkh prgho0fdofxodwlrqv +Ilj1 441;/ grwwhg olqh, xvlqj Ht1 43146 iruG+p, vkrz vrph ri wkh ihdwxuhv +olqhdu lqfuhdvh/ rffxuuhqfh ri d pd{lpxp, ri

4<; Udgrq uhohdvh udwhv

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1moisture, m

R(

Bq

/s)

Iljxuh 441:= +@_L?�hi*i@ti h@|it @t u�?U|�L? Lu |�i 4L�t|�hi UL?|i?| 4 U@*U�*@|i_ @?@*)|�U@**)

E�#G _L||i_ *�?i( �#G tL*�_ *�?i� @?_ ?�4ih�U@**) E�#G |h�@?}*it( �#G t^�@hit��

wkh h{shulphqwdo gdwd dv vkrzq lq Ilj1 4417/ wkh srvlwlrq ri wkh pd{lpxp lvqrw dw wkh surshu p0ydoxhv +319031;, dqg/ pruh vhulrxvo|/ wkh prghoohg ghfuhdvhri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh dw kljk p0ydoxhv +31<0413, lv qrw vwhhs hqrxjk1 Wkhfdofxodwlrqv +Ilj1 441;/ vrolg olqh, edvhg rq wkh cfruuhfwhg* p0ghshqghqfh ri Gghvfulehg e| Ht1 43148 +vhh vhfwlrq 4317, gr vkrz d pd{lpxp dw p � 3=; dqg dvwhhshu ghfuhdvh ri U +�Et v3�,1 Wklv lqglfdwhv wkdw prvw olnho| Ht1 43148 jlyhvd pruh frqvlvwhqw ghvfulswlrq ri wkh prlvwxuh0ghshqghqfh ri wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrqfrh�flhqwD wkdq Ht1 43146 dqg wkxv/ lw zloo eh xvhg lq ixuwkhu prghoolqj1

Qh{w/ wkh krprjhqhrxv prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrq zdv uhsodfhg e| wkh }hur dqgqrq0}hur vxuidfh prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrqv vkrzq lq Ilj1 4419 dqg prgho0fdofxodwlrqvzhuh uhshdwhg1

Lw lv irxqg +vhh Ilj1 441<, wkdw wkh U0glvwulexwlrq zlwk }hur0prlvwxuh dw wkhvxuidfhv uhvxowv lq d vkliw ri wkh srvlwlrq ri wkh pd{lpxp dw p � 3=; wrzdugvorzhu p0ydoxhv dqg ohdgv wr d pruh judgxdo ghfuhdvh ri wkh uhohdvh udwhv ryhu wkh+31:0413, grpdlq/ ihdwxuhv qrw lq djuhhphqw zlwk wkh h{shulphqwdo gdwd +Ilj1 441</gdvkhg olqh,1 Wkh p0glvwulexwlrq zlwk qrq0}hur prlvwxuh dw wkh erxqgdulhv jlyhvuhvxowv wkdw duh dssur{lpdwho| vlplodu wr wkh fdvh zlwk wkh krprjhqhrxv glvwul0

D,^� �f��D �t LM|@�?i_ uhL4 ,^� �f�� 4TLt�?} |�@| |�i h@|�L Mi|�ii? |�i h@_L?�_�g�t�L?ULi�U�i?|t �? u�** �@|ih�t@|�h@|i_ E6 ' �� @?_ |L|@**) _h) E6 ' f� UL?Uhi|i i^�@*t |�i h@|�L Lu|�i h@_L?�_�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?|t �? �@|ih @?_ @�hc hitTiU|��i*)�

4416 Prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh ri H6 4<<

m

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

R ( µ

Bq

s-1)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Iljxuh 441;= +@_L?�hi*i@ti h@|it U@*U�*@|i_ uLh @ �L4L}i?iL�t 4 _�t|h�M�|�L? @?_ @ #E4�

T@h@4i|h�t@|�L? @UULh_�?} |L ,^� �f�� E_L||i_ *�?i� @?_ ,^� �f��D EtL*�_ *�?i�c hitTiU|��i*)�

exwlrq +Ilj1 441</ gdvkhg grwwhg olqh,1 Lw lv frqfoxghg wkdw wkh dfwxdo prlvwxuhglvwulexwlrq lq frqfuhwh gxulqj wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh phdvxuhphqwv prvw olnho|uhvhpeohg wkh glvwulexwlrq zlwk qrq0}hur vxuidfh prlvwxuh0frqwhqw +ri zklfk wkhkrprjhqhrxv glvwulexwlrq lv d vshfldo fdvh,1 Wklv uhvxow lv vxssruwhg e| QPUphdvxuhphqwv gxulqj gu|lqj ri pruwdu ^<7` zklfk vkrz gu|lqj sur�ohv vlplodu wrwkh qrq0}hur vxuidfh prlvwxuh0frqwhqw fxuyhv lq Ilj1 44191 Pruhryhu/ wkh vdwx0udwlrq sur�ohv lq fkdswhu < iru d gu|lqj frqfuhwh fxeh +xqghu qrupdo hqylurq0phqwdo frqglwlrqv, zlwk lghqwlfdo frpsrvlwlrq dv rxu whvw fxehv dovr uhvxowhglq p0glvwulexwlrqv wkdw duh frqvlvwhqw zlwk d qrq0}hur vxuidfh prlvwxuh0frqwhqw+Ilj1 4419,1

Dowkrxjk wkh prgho0fdofxodwlrqv ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv duh frqvlvwhqw zlwkwkh h{shulphqwdo gdwd zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh vkdsh ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh fxuyh+Ilj1 4417,/ wkh devroxwh ydoxhv duh xqghuhvwlpdwhg e| dssur{lpdwho| 58(1 Wklvlv suredeo| uhodwhg wr wkh hduolhu phqwlrqhg v|vwhpdwlf ryhuhvwlpdwlrq ri wkh �0ydoxhv lq wkh udqjh 3?p?4 lq Ilj1 4418 fdxvhg e| ryhuhvwlpdwlqj ri wkhp0ydoxhv1Vkliwlqj wkh gdwd srlqwv iru �+p, lq wklv udqjh wr orzhu p0ydoxhv zrxog lqfuhdvhwkh vorsh ri wkh olqhdu uhodwlrq iru �+p, +grwwhg olqh lq Ilj1 4418, dqg frqvhtxhqwo|uhvxow lq pruh udgrq surgxfwlrq lq wkh prgho1

Dqrwkhu srvvleoh fdxvh frxog eh wkdw � phdvxuhg iru kljk p0ydoxhv lv xqghu0hvwlpdwhg ehfdxvh sduw ri wkh udgrq wkdw hpdqdwhv lqvlgh wkh sruh vsdfh ri wkh

533 Udgrq uhohdvh udwhv

m

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

R (µ

Bq

s-1)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Iljxuh 441<= +@_L?�hi*i@ti h@|it U@*U�*@|i_ �t�?} ,^� �f��D uLh #E4� @?_ @tt�4�?} |�hii |)Tit

Lu 4L�t|�hi _�t|h�M�|�L?t E6�}� ��S�G �L4L}i?iL�t EtL*�_ *�?i�c 3ihL t�hu@Ui 4L�t|�hi UL?|i?|

E_@t�i_ *�?i� @?_ ?L?�3ihL t�hu@Ui 4L�t|�hi UL?|i?| E_@t�i_�_L||i_ *�?i��

frqfuhwh sduwv lv qrw uhohdvhg gxh wr wkh vpdoo gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw dw wkhvh kljkp0ydoxhv1 Wr hvwlpdwh wklv h�hfw/ uhohdvh udwhv zhuh fdofxodwhg iru frqfuhwh fxehvzlwk vlghv ri 418 fp +wkh dssur{lpdwh vl}h ri wkh fuxvkhg sduwv, xvlqj Ht1 43148iru G+p,1 Lw zdv irxqg wkdw hyhq iru wklv vpdoo vl}hv dw p @ 4 rqo| ;3( dqgdw p @ 3=< douhdg| <<1:( ri wkh hpdqdwhg udgrq zdv uhohdvhg1 Wkh gdwd srlqwvdw p @ 4 lq Ilj1 4418 zhuh fruuhfwhg iru wklv h�hfw +�oohg vtxduhv/ Ilj1 4418,1Xvlqj rqo| wkh gdwd dw p @ 3 dqg p @ 4 +fruuhfwhg ydoxhv, dq dowhuqdwlyh olqhduuhodwlrq zdv frqvwuxfwhg +grwwhg olqh/ Ilj1 4418, dqg prgho0fdofxodwlrqv zhuh uh0shdwhg iru d krprjhqhrxv prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrq1 Wkhvh fdofxodwlrqv +vrolg olqh/Ilj1 44143, duh lq jrrg djuhhphqw zlwk wkh h{shulphqwdo gdwd1 Hvshfldoo| lq wkhudqjh 3?p?31; wkh fruuhvsrqghqfh lv h{fhoohqw1 Lq wkh udqjh 31;?p?413 wkhfdofxodwlrqv voljkwo| ryhuhvwlpdwh wkh gdwd1 Krzhyhu/ lq ylhz ri wkh vwloo olplwhgdprxqw ri lqirupdwlrq dydlodeoh iru wkh lqsxw sdudphwhuv +hvshfldoo| wkh prlv0wxuh glvwulexwlrq dqg wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw, zh frqfoxgh wkdw wkh prlvwxuhghshqghqfh ri udgrq0uhohdvh iurp frqfuhwh/ prghoohg rq edvlv ri wkh pxowl0skdvhudgrq wudqvsruw htxdwlrq +Ht1 715:, lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk rxu h{shulphqwdo uhvxowv1

Edvhg rq wkh idfw wkdw wkh prghoolqj uhvxowv lq Ilj1 44143 vkrz doo wkh ihdwxuhvwkdw zhuh irxqg lq wkh h{shulphqwv +Ilj1 4417,/ zh frqfoxgh wkdw wkh prlvwxuhglvwulexwlrq ryhu wkh frqfuhwh fxeh lv prvw olnho| yhu| forvh wr d krprjhqhrxv

4416 Prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh ri H6 534

m

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

R (

µ Bq

s-1)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Iljxuh 44143= +@_L?�hi*i@ti h@|it U@*U�*@|i_ uLh @ �L4L}i?iL�t 4�_�t|h�M�|�L?c |�i @*|ih?@�

|��i *�?i@h hi*@|�L? uLh �E4� E_L||i_ *�?i �? 6�}� ��D� @?_ |�i �ULhhiU|i_< hi*@|�L? E,^� �f��D�

uLh #E4��

glvwulexwlrq/ dowkrxjk vrph voljkw ghfuhdvh wrzdugv wkh vxuidfh pd| eh suhvhqw1

Vhqvlwlylw| ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwh fdofxodwlrqv rq wkh ydoxhv ri lqsxw

sdudphwhuv

Wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri wkh prgho uhvxowv rq yduldwlrqv lq wkh ydoxhv ri wkh lqsxw sd0udphwhuv dv lqwurgxfhg lq wkh ehjlqqlqj ri wklv vhfwlrq +vhfwlrq 441615, zloo ehglvfxvvhg qh{w1 Dv d edvh0olqh iru frpsdulvrq/ wkh prgho uhvxowv iurp Ilj1 44143duh xvhg1

Udglxp0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrq/ srurvlw| dqg exon gu| ghqvlw| Iru wkhprlvwxuh0lqghshqghqw sdudphwhuv wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv iru wkhudqjhv ri yduldwlrqv lqglfdwhg lq Wdeoh 4414 zloo eh vwxglhg1 Wkh udglxp0dfwlylw|frqfhqwudwlrq F-@ lv/ dffruglqj wr wkh dqdo|wlfdo fdofxodwlrqv +dsshqgl{ D,/ gl0uhfwo| sursruwlrqdo wr wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh yld wkh udgrq0exon surgxfwlrq udwh/VK1 Lqghhg/ Ilj1 44144 vkrzv wkdw wkh fdofxodwhg udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv vfdoh zlwk wkhudglxp frqwhqw= lqfuhdvhg ydoxhv ri F-@ ohdg wr kljk udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv1 Zlwklqwkh udqjh ri yduldwlrq +�<(,/ wkh h�hfw lv frpsdudeoh dqg uhodwlyho| vpdoo dqglw lv ehvw revhuyhg ryhu wkh 318031< prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrq grpdlq1


m

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

R (

µBq

s-1)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Iljxuh 44144= 5i?t�|��|) L? �+@ � �@*U�*@|�L? Lu |�i h@_L?�hi*i@ti h@|itc + E�^ t3��c Lu @?

�?UL�ihi_ UL?Uhi|i U�Mi @t @ u�?U|�L? Lu �|t 4i@? 4L�t|�hi UL?|i?|� , Tih�4i?|@* _@|@ TL�?|t

@?_ tL*�_ *�?i ��|� @** T@h@4i|iht @t �? 6�}� ��f� #L||i_ *�?it U@*U�*@|i_ ��|��-@'2��^ !}3�

E*L�ih _L||i_ *�?i� @?_ �-@'2��^!}3� E�TTih _L||i_ *�?i��

Wkh exon gu| ghqvlw| �K hqwhuv wkh udgrq wudqvsruw htxdwlrqv wkurxjk wkhsurgxfwlrq udwh VK/ lq dq lghqwlfdo pdqqhu dv F-@1 Yduldwlrqv ri �K zloo/ wkxv/kdyh wkh vdph uhodwlyh h�hfw dv yduldwlrqv lq F-@ +Ilj1 44145,1 Zlwk wkh suhvhqwdffxudf| lq wkh �K0ydoxh/ yduldwlrqv qrw odujhu wkdq 6( zloo eh lqwurgxfhg lq wkhprghoolqj1

Wkh ghshqghqfh ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv rq wkh frqqhfwhg srurvlw| % lvvoljkwo| pruh frpsolfdwhg dqg wkh lq�xhqfh ri d fkdqjh lq srurvlw| lv wkxv qrwreylrxv1 Prgho0fdofxodwlrqv vkrz +Ilj1 44145, wkdw d 53( fkdqjh lq srurvlw| rqo|ohdgv wr d fkdqjh ri derxw 6( lq wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv1

Wkh frpelqhg xqfhuwdlqw| lq wkh prgho0fdofxodwlrqv gxh wr wkh xqfhuwdlqwlhvlq wkhvh wkuhh sdudphwhuv lv hvwlpdwhg wr eh dssur{lpdwho| 43048( +Ht1 F15;�1

Udgrq exon gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw Wr dvvhvv wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri wkh fdofxodwhgudgrq0uhohdvh udwhv rq wkh yduldwlrqv lq wkh udgrq0exon gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw/ zhxvhg wkh cfruuhfwhg* Ht1 43148 wr ghvfuleh G+p, dqg fkdqjhg wkh sdudphwhuv e|rqh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq1 Wklv zd|/ wkh ydoxh iru wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw zdv hlwkhupd{lplvhg +G+3, @ 4=;6 � 433Hp2 v3�> d@517<> e@518:, ru plqlplvhg +G+3, @

4416 Prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh ri H6 536

m0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

R (µ

Bq

s-1)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120Bulk dry density, ρb

m

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

R (µ

Bq

s-1)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120Porosity, ε

Iljxuh 44145= 5i?t�|��|) L? �K @?_ %� �@*U�*@|�L? Lu |�i h@_L?�hi*i@ti h@|itc + E�^ t3��c

Lu @? �?UL�ihi_ UL?Uhi|i U�Mi @t @ u�?U|�L? Lu �|t 4i@? 4L�t|�hi UL?|i?|c 4� , Tih�4i?|@*

_@|@ TL�?|t @?_ tL*�_ *�?i ��|� @** T@h@4i|iht @t �? 6�}� ��f� 6Lh TLhLt�|)c _L||i_ *�?it @hi

U@*U�*@|i_ ��|� %'f��2D E*L�ih _L||i_ *�?i� @?_ %'f��f E�TTih _L||i_ *�?i�� 6Lh M�*!�_h)

_i?t�|)c _L||i_ *�?it @hi LM|@�?i_ uLh �K@ 5563 !} 43�E*L�ih _L||i_ *�?i� @?_ �K@ 55<3 !}

43� E�TTih _L||i_ *�?i��

4=:4 � 433Hp2 v3�> d@5198> e@5196,1 Ilj1 44146 vkrzv wkdw iru p ? 3=: kdugo|dq| h�hfw lv ylvleoh zkloh iru kljkhu prlvwxuh frqwhqwv yduldwlrqv xs wr 63( pd|rffxu1

Hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw Dv srlqwhg rxw lq vhfwlrq 441615/ wkh dfwxdo prlvwxuhghshqghqfh ri wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw lv vwloo qrw dffxudwho| nqrzq1 Wr hvwl0pdwh wkh vhqvlwlylw| ri wkh prgho wr yduldwlrqv lq wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw zhxvh wkh dowhuqdwlyh olqhdu uhodwlrq +�+p, @ d . ep zlwk d @ 3=34 3=34 dqge @ 3=68 3=35, lq Ilj1 4418 +grwwhg olqh,1 Prgho0fdofxodwlrqv zhuh frqgxfwhgxvlqj d olqhdu ghshqghqfh ri � rq p lq zklfk erwk sdudphwhuv d dqg e zhuhvlpxowdqhrxvo| lqfuhdvhg +d@3135> e@316:, dqg ghfuhdvhg +d@313> e@3166, zlwkrqh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Wkh qxphulfdo uhvxowv +Ilj1 44147, vkrzwkdw wkhvh fkdqjhv lq wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw pd| lqgxfh fkdqjhv lq wkh prg0hoohg udgrq uhohdvh ri dssur{lpdwho| 53(1 Lq wkh p?31;8 sduw ri wkh �jxuh doowkh h{shulphqwdo gdwd srlqwv +�oohg flufohv lq Ilj1 44147, duh lq ehwzhhq wkh wzrh{wuhph fdvhv ri wkh �+p, yduldwlrqv1 Krzhyhu/ iru wkh xsshu sduw ri wkh udqjhri prlvwxuh vdwxudwlrqv/ wkh h{shulphqwdo gdwd srlqwv duh rxwvlgh wkh qxphul0fdoo| fdofxodwhg udqjh ri yduldwlrq1 Wkh h�hfwv ri fkdqjlqj wkh p0glvwulexwlrq


m

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

R (µ

Bq

s-1)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Iljxuh 44146= 5i?t�|��|) L? #E4�� @*U�*@|�L? Lu h@_L? hi*i@ti h@|itc + E�^ t3��c Lu @? �?�

UL�ihi_ UL?Uhi|i U�Mi @t @ u�?U|�L? Lu �|t 4i@? 4L�t|�hi UL?|i?|� 5L*�_ *�?i ��|� @** T@h@4i|iht

@t �? 6�}� ��f� #L||i_ *�?it U@*U�*@|i_ ��|� #Ef�'��.� ��f3H 42t3�( @'2�SD @?_ M'2�S�

E*L�ih _L||i_ *�?i� @?_ #Ef�'��H� ��f3H 42t3�( @'2�eb @?_ M'2�D. E�TTih _L||i_ *�?i� @t

T@h@4i|iht �? |�i hi*@|�L? uLh #E4��

zhuh douhdg| vkrzq +Ilj1 441<, wr frqvlghudeo| dowhu wkh fdofxodwhg udgrq0uhohdvhudwhv1 Krzhyhu/ dv gh�qlwh +h{shulphqwdo, lqirupdwlrq rq wkh dfwxdo glvwulexwlrqgxulqj rxu phdvxuhphqwv lv odfnlqj/ qr ixuwkhu glvfxvvlrq rq wkh vhqvlwlylw| fdqeh dvvhvvhg1

��e �L?U*�t�L?t

Udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri frqfuhwh fxehv zhuh revhuyhg wr fkdqjh zlwk wlph/ sulpdu0lo| gxh wr fkdqjhv lq prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri frqfuhwh1 Wkh pdmru idfwru uhvsrqvleohiru wkh fkdqjhv lv wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri frqfuhwh1 Qrw rqo| ruljlqdwhv wkhudgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri frqfuhwh iurp wkh fhphqw0sdvwh exw wkh wlph hyroxwlrq riudgrq0uhohdvh udwhv dv phdvxuhg iru wkh fhphqw0sdvwh dovr h{sodlqv wkh fkdqjhvlq wkh ehkdylrxu ri frqfuhwh zlwk wlph1 Wkxv/ wr vwxg| d fhuwdlq surshuw| rifrqfuhwh dw d �{hg prlvwxuh frqwhqw phdvxuhphqwv vkrxog eh shuiruphg zlwklqd uhodwlyho| vkruw wlph lqwhuydo ru e| suhvhuylqj d ydoxh ri wkh uhodwlyh kxplglw|ri wkh hqylurqphqw vxfk wkdw �xfwxdwlrqv lq wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri wkh vdpsohduh dyrlghg1

4417 Frqfoxvlrqv 538

m

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

R (

µBq

s-1)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Iljxuh 44147= 5i?t�|��|) L? �E4�� @*U�*@|�L? Lu h@_L? hi*i@ti h@|itc +E�^t3� �c Lu @? �?�

UL�ihi_ UL?Uhi|i U�Mi @t @ u�?U|�L? Lu �|t 4i@? 4L�t|�hi UL?|i?|� 5L*�_ *�?i ��|� @** T@h@4i|iht

@t �? 6�}� ��f� #L||i_ *�?it U@*U�*@|i_ ��|� @'f�f @?_ M'f�� E*L�ih _L||i_ *�?i� @?_ @'f�f2

@?_ M'f��. E�TTih _L||i_ *�?i� @t T@h@4i|iht �? |�i @*|ih?@|��i *�?i@h hi*@|�L? uLh �E4��

Iru d fhuwdlq w|sh ri frqfuhwh/ gl�huhqfhv ri dq rughu ri pdjqlwxgh pd| rffxulq wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv gxh wr d fkdqjlqj prlvwxuh frqwhqw1 Lq uhsruwlqj wkhuhvxowv ri uhohdvh +h{kdodwlrq, udwhv ri frqfuhwh lw lv uhfrpphqghg wr vwdwh wkhprlvwxuh frqwhqw gxulqj wkh phdvxuhphqw1

Wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri frqfuhwh lq frqvwuxfwlrqv duh uhsruwhg wr vrphwlphvghfuhdvh zlwk djh ^49<`1 Xqghu wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdw wkh udgrq uhohdvh ri rwkhuw|shv ri frqfuhwh kdyh d vlplodu prlvwxuh ghshqghqf| dv irxqg lq wklv vwxg|/ dqh{sodqdwlrq pd| eh surylghg iru wkhvh fkdqjhv1 Frqfuhwh lq qhz frqvwuxfwlrqvlv yhu| prlvw dqg zloo gu| gxulqj lwv olih wlph1 Li wkh �uvw udgrq0uhohdvh udwhphdvxuhphqw lv pdgh rq wkh ohiw +gu|, vlgh ri wkh pd{lpxp ri wkh fxuyh lqIlj1 4417/ udgrq h{kdodwlrq zloo dsshdu wr eh ghfuhdvlqj dv d ixqfwlrq ri djh1Li orqj0whup iroorz0xs vwxglhv vwduwhg zlwk phdvxuhphqwv rq wkh zhw vlgh ri wkhpd{lpxp/ wkh| riwhq uhyhdo d pd{lpxp lq udgrq uhohdvh diwhu 318 wr 4 |hdu ^446`1

Uhvsrqvleoh iru wkh revhuyhg ghshqghqfh ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv rq wkh prlv0wxuh frqwhqw lv sulpdulo| wkh frpsoh{ sruh v|vwhp ri frqfuhwh zlwk pdq| +73(,qduurz +433bp, jho sruhvS/ frpelqhg zlwk dovr dexqgdqw/ pxfk zlghu fdsloodu|sruhv +fkdswhu <,1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv ri udgrq lq frqfuhwh duh

SW? t@?_ |�i }i* TLhit @hi @Mti?|�


pxfk vpdoohu frpsduhg wr vdqg ru vrlo1 Pruhryhu gxh wr wkh grxeoh kxpshg sruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrq/ wkh prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh uhodwhg txdqwlwlhv/olnh U dqg �/ fryhuv d pxfk zlghu udqjh1 Iru h{dpsoh/ wkh olqhdu p0ghshqghqfhri wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw lq frqfuhwh/ wkdw ghyldwhv iurp wkdw ri ydulrxv vrlow|shv/ lv prvw olnho| d uhvxow ri wklv ghqvh dqg wruwxrxv plfurvwuxfwxuh1 Xqolnhlq vdqg/ zkhuh rqo| fdsloodu| sruhv h{lvw dqg wkh zdwhu fryhudjh ri wkh sruhzdoov lv uhdfkhg doprvw lpphgldwho|/ lq frqfuhwh wkh zdwhu lqjuhvvlrq lv d judgxdosurfhvv/ vwurqjo| jryhuqhg e| vxuidfh udglxv h�hfwv= �uvw wkh vpdoohvw sruh vl}hv0jho sruhv0 duh vdwxudwhg> diwhu wkh jho sruhv kdyh ehhq �oohg/ wkh fdsloodu| sruhvehfrph dfwlydwhg1

Dowkrxjk prgho0fdofxodwlrqv rq edvlv ri wkh pxowl0skdvh udgrq wudqvsruwhtxdwlrq xvlqj lqghshqghqwo| phdvxuhg lqsxw sdudphwhuv duh lq jrrg djuhhphqwzlwk wkh phdvxuhg prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh ri udgrq uhohdvh iurp frqfuhwh/ vwloo vrph/qrw ixoo| mxvwl�hg/ dvvxpswlrqv kdyh ehhq pdgh lq wkh surfhvv1 Dv lw lv wkh lq0whqwlrq wr lqfoxgh lq wkh ixwxuh wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh prgho +UdgPrg, lq dfrpelqhg vfkhph iru frqfuhwh vwuxfwxuh dqg udgrq wudqvsruw +Ilj1 915,/ pruh h{0whqvlyh ydolgdwlrq lv qhhghg1 Vxfk ydolgdwlrq vkrxog sxw hpskdvlv rq whfkqltxhvwr rewdlq wkh dfwxdo prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrq lqvlgh frqfuhwh fxehv/ wr ehwwhu gh0�qh wkh p0ghshqghqfh ri � +e| xvlqj ehwwhu gh�qhg vdpsohv wkdq wkh fuxvkhgsduwv/ h1j1 vpdoo fxehv ru wklq volfhv, dqg �qdoo| wr dvvhvv wkh srvvleoh h�hfw riudgrq dgvruswlrq wr frqfuhwh vxuidfhv +zklfk zdv dvvxphg wr eh qhjoljleoh lq wklvvwxg|,1 Wkh uroh ri p rq �/ G dqg U lv rqh ri wkh prvw lpsruwdqw qhz lqvljkwvjdlqhg lq wklv wkhvlv1 D ehwwhu xqghuvwdqglqj dqg khqfh d ghvfulswlrq ri wklv urohpd| ohdg wr d qhz wrro iru qrq0ghvwuxfwlyh dqg lq0vlwx prqlwrulqj ri djh0h�hfwvlq frqfuhwh frqvwuxfwlrqv1

Lw lv frqfoxghg wkdw udgrq uhohdvh iurp frqfuhwh prvw olnho| fdq eh prghoohgrq edvlv ri wkh pxowl0skdvh udgrq wudqvsruw htxdwlrq +Ht1 715:,1 Frpelqlqjvxfk d udgrq wudqvsruw prgho +UdgPrg, zlwk d prgho iru frqfuhwh vwuxfwxuh +iruh{dpsoh GxFRP, zloo ohdg wr d yhu| srzhuixo prghoolqj wrro iru wkh ghvljq riorz0udgrq surgxflqj frqfuhwh1

��

+i_�U|�L? M) t�hu@Ui UL�ih�?}

�2�� W?|hL_�U|�L?

Wzr uhphglhv h{lvw wr uhgxfh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv lq lqgrru dlu= yhqwlodwlrq dqgvhdolqj ri udgrq h{kdolqj vxuidfhv1 Yhqwlodwlrq lv nqrzq wr eh h�hfwlyh erwk lqplqhv dqg exloglqjv> |hw/ iru krxvhv lw lv qrw dozd|v d vxlwdeoh phdqv ri frq0wuro vlqfh lw ghshqgv rq srzhu dydlodelolw| dqg zhdwkhu frqglwlrqv dqg lv riwhqqrw dssolfdeoh lq dlu0frqglwlrqhg exloglqjv1 Wkh dssolfdwlrq ri fryhulqjv rq wkhh{kdolqj vxuidfhv orrnv pruh dwwudfwlyh= lw lv d udwkhu vlpsoh phwkrg/ hdv| wreh hpsor|hg e| prvw xvhuv/ grhv qrw uhtxluh dq| dgglwlrqdo srzhu vxssolhv dqghqhuj| frqvxpswlrq dqg/ prvw olnho|/ lw lv ohvv ghshqghqw rq wkh hqylurqphqwdofrqglwlrqv dqg frxog eh ghvljqhg zlwk d kljk lqgh{ ri gxudelolw|1 Krzhyhu/ iurpwkh eurdg udqjh ri h{lvwlqj fryhuv/ rqo| olplwhg gdwd lv dydlodeoh wr mxgjh wkhluh�fdf| zlwk uhvshfw wr uhgxfwlrq ri udgrq h{kdodwlrq1 Wkh sdudphwhu fkdudfwhu0lvlqj wkh h�hfwlyhqhvv ri d fhuwdlq fryhu wkdw lv xvxdoo| ghwhuplqhg h{shulphqwdoo|lv fdoohg wkh uhgxfwlrq idfwru dqg zdv gh�qhg lq vhfwlrq 8161

53:

53; Uhgxfwlrq e| vxuidfh fryhulqj

Lq wkh suhvhqw vwxg| wkh udgrq0uhgxfwlrq idfwru ri d qxpehu ri fryhuv +hsr{|joxh/ grxeoh0vlghg doxplqlvhg sro|hwk|ohqh irlo/ vroxeoh jodvv/ doxplqxp sdlqw/sro|hvwhu sdlqw/ shuvsh{ dqg SSWD irlo,/ dv dssolhg rq vwdqgdug whvw frqfuhwhfxehv +vhfwlrq ;15,/ zdv ghwhuplqhg1

Lq vhfwlrq 4515 vrph surshuwlhv ri wkh lqyhvwljdwhg fryhuv duh eulh�| ghvfulehg1Ghwdlov ri wkh dssolfdwlrq surfhgxuh ri wkhvh fryhuv rq frqfuhwh fxehv wrjhwkhuzlwk wkh ydoxhv ghwhuplqhg iru wkh udgrq0uhgxfwlrq idfwruv duh jlyhq lq vhf0wlrq 4516 dqg glvfxvvhg lq vhfwlrq 45171

�2�2 �L�iht

Rq edvlv ri olwhudwxuh lqirupdwlrq +vhfwlrq 816, dqg sdvw h{shulhqfh dw wkh NYL^487`/ hsr{| joxh/ grxeoh0vlghg doxplqlvhg sro|hwk|ohqh irlo/ vroxeoh jodvv/ dox0plqxp sdlqw/ sro|hvwhu sdlqw/ shuvsh{ dqg SSWD irlo zhuh vhohfwhg dv fryhupdwhuldov1

Wzr hsr{| joxhv zhuh xvhg lq wkh h{shulphqwv dv dgkhvlyh pdwhuldov/ fdsdeohwr krog pdwhuldov wrjhwkhu e| dwwdfkphqw rqo| wr wkhlu vxuidfhv exw zlwkrxw wrrpxfk shqhwudwlrq lqwr wkh vxevwudwh1 Hsr{lhv duh nqrzq iru kdylqj h{fhoohqwdgkhvlrq surshuwlhv/ hvshfldoo| iru iuhvk frqfuhwh ^4:`1 Wkhlu uhgxfwlrq ri udgrq0h{kdodwlrq udwhv/ zkhq dssolhg rq frqfuhwh/ ydulhv ehwzhhq 63 ( dqg <6 ( +^489`/ ^438`,1 Wkh �uvw surgxfw� lv d xqlyhuvdo wzr0frpsrqhqw +d kdughqhu dqg dudlvlq, wudqvsduhqw txlfn0kdughqlqj pdwhuldo1 Lwv udglxp dfwlylw| zdv phdvxuhgdqg irxqg wr eh vpdoohu wkdq 3134 Etnj3�1 Dv rqo| derxw 73083 j ri wkh joxhzdv xvhg/ lwv srwhqwldo udgrq uhohdvh pd| eh qhjohfwhg1 Wkh vhfrqg joxh w|sh2/jud| lq frorxu/ lv d �h{leoh wzr frpsrqhqw fxulqj vwuxfwxudo dgkhvlyh zlwk kljkvkhdu dqg shho vwuhqjwkv1

Wkh sro|hwk|ohqh +SH, irlo � lv d grxeoh0vlghg doxplqlvhg phpeudqh +53ppwklfnqhvv,/ ghyhorshg dqg dssolhg lq wkh Qhwkhuodqgv iru lvrodwlrq sxusrvhv1 Dvudgrq eduulhu/ wkh irlo zdv whvwhg lq rxu oderudwru| vhyhudo wlphv ^487`1 Lqwkh frqwh{w ri wklv vwxg| wkh irlo zdv whvwhg djdlq/ d udgrq shuphdelolw| ri+414317,�433�D p2 v3� zdv phdvxuhg/ vx�flhqwo| orz wr txdoli| wkh irlo dv dqdoprvw 433 ( h�hfwlyh udgrq eduulhu1 Wklv ydoxh lv frqvlghudeo| orzhu wkdq6168�433��p2 v3�/ phdvxuhg iru d qrq0doxplqlvhg sro|hwk|ohqh phpeudqh zlwkwkh vdph irlo wklfnqhvv ^439`1

��W5�� ,TL ) +@T�_i�25UL|U�� i*_ 22�S �%� iTL ) @_�it��i��A��~�� |�ih4Lt�ii|�

4515 Fryhuv 53<

Vroxeoh jodvve lv d vlolfrq0edvhg vhdodqw wkdw shqhwudwhv wkh vxshu�fldo od|hu riwkh vdpsoh vxuidfh dqg uhpdlqv uhvlolhqw diwhu fxulqj1 Wklv zd|/ qr fudfnv ru vpdoorshqlqjv vkrxog dsshdu gxulqj kdughqlqj1 D vhdodqw lv h{shfwhg wr irup d vhdowkdw suhyhqwv wkh sdvvdjh ri jdvhv/ oltxlgv dqg vrolgv1 Vroxeoh jodvv lv d pl{wxuhri VlR2 dqg QdR +yroxph sursruwlrqv 5 wr 7=4, lq zdwhu1 Vlolfrqh frdwlqjv duhlqglfdwhg dv jrrg udgrq eduulhuv ^437`1 Vlolfrq0edvhg fdxonv dovr dwwhqxdwh 222Uqe| :8 ( wr <; ( ^75`1

Doxplqxp sdlqwD lv d rqh0frpsrqhqw dfu|olf sdlqw zlwk wlq| sodwhohwv ri dox0plqxp1 Wkhvh sdlqwv xvh d vshfldo w|sh ri qrq0ohd�qj doxplqxp sljphqw dqgd idvw gu|lqj/ vroyhqw v|vwhp1 Dv wkh vroyhqw hydsrudwhv/ hvshfldoo| iurp wklq�opv/ wkh doxplqxp sljphqw whqgv wr rulhqw lq glvfuhwh sdwfkhv zklfk jlyh wkhdsshdudqfh ri d phwdo vxuidfh1

Sro|hvwhu sdlqwS lv d wzr0frpsrqhqw sro|hvwhu sdlqw= d odftxhu dqg d kdug0hqhu1 Ehiruh wkh dssolfdwlrq/ wkh kdughqhu kdv wr eh pl{hg zlwk wkh odftxhu +lqsursruwlrq ri 4=5/ uhvshfwlyho|, dqg wkh pl{wxuh kdv wr eh doorzhg wr uhdfw iru 63plqxwhv ehiruh dssolfdwlrq1

Shuvsh{ +ru soh{ljodv, lv wkh frpphufldo qdph iru sro|0phwk|o0phwkdfu|odwh+SPPD,1 Phwk|o0phwkdfu|odwh/ d xqvdwxudwhg hvwhu +FDKHR2,/ sro|phulvhv uhdg0lo| wr SPPD iruplqj d frorxuohvv/ wudqvsduhqw wkhuprsodvwlf pdwhuldo/ oljkwhudqg pruh lpsdfw0uhvlvwdqw wkdq jodvv1 Wkh SPPD. xvhg iru wkh fryhu frqvlvwhgri wzr oltxlg frpsrqhqwv= wkh prqrphu dqg wkh kdughqhu/ wkh odwwhu ehlqj uh0vsrqvleoh iru vwduwlqj wkh uhdfwlrq ehwzhhq wkh prqrphuv1 Dtxhrxv glvshuvlrqvri dfu|olf sro|phuv duh zlgho| xvhg lq vxuidfh frdwlqjv/ duwl�fldo ohdwkhuv/ ideulf�qlvklqj dv glvwlqfw iurp fdvwlqj uhvlqv1

Wkh SSWD irloH lv d xowudkljk0shuirupdqfh sro|+s0skhq|ohqh whuhskwkdod0plgh, �op ri wklfnqhvv 58�p1 Lw ehorqjv wr wkh fodvv ri �ehu0uhlqirufhg sro|phulfuhvlqv1 Wkh vshfldo frpsrvlwlrq ri Dudplg uhlqiruflqj �ehuv lv uhvsrqvleoh iru wkhkljkhvw nqrzq +ehwzhhq �ehuv, vwuhqjwk0wr0zhljkw udwlr dqg iru yhu| jrrg khdwuhvlvwdqw shuirupdqfh +xs wr 86;�F,1

e+N�w� OW Ai4T ti@*ihc |)Ti �D�f�DA)Ti �ihL�i c B�3i 2Dc hiUL44i?_i_ M) ThLu� �� Oi?_h�!t uhL4 ,�?_�L�i? N?��iht�|)

Lu AiU�?L*L})�S#iWatti* �L@|�?}t�.+N�w��H�+��W��c ��A� �h@4�_ �*4�

543 Uhgxfwlrq e| vxuidfh fryhulqj

�2�� +it�*|t

Udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri frqfuhwh ghshqg rq fxulqj dqg vwrulqj frqglwlrqv/ rq wkhprlvwxuh glvwulexwlrq dqg dyhudjh frqwhqw dqg lwv wlph yduldwlrq dqg rq wlph1 Wrplqlplvh wkh h�hfwv ri wklv prlvwxuh dqg wlph ghshqghqfh ri wkh udgrq uhohdvhudwhv/ doo fryhu h{shulphqwv zhuh shuiruphg rq urrp0frqglwlrqhg vdpsohv dqgzlwklq d wlph vsdq wkdw zdv dv vkruw dv srvvleoh1 Ixuwkhupruh/ lq dvvhvvlqj wkhh�hfwv ri dssolfdwlrq ri d fryhu wr d fhuwdlq fxeh/ wkh uhohdvh udwh ri wkh vdph fxehlq wkh xqfryhuhg vlwxdwlrq/ Uf +Et v3�,/ zdv wdnhq dv uhihuhqfh wkxv holplqdwlqjwkh lq�xhqfh ri srvvleoh gl�huhqfhv ehwzhhq wkh frqvwlwxwlrq ri wkh fxehv1 Wkhuhgxfwlrq idfwru lv gh�qhg lq whupv ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv jlyhq e| Ht1 8151

Wkh frqfuhwh vdpsohv fryhuhg duh odehohg dv FU6/ FU7/ FU8/ FU54/ FU57dqg FU5<1 Qrqh ri wkh frqfuhwh*v vxuidfhv zdv suhsduhg lq d vshfldo zd| ehiruhdsso|lqj wkh fryhu1 Wkh dssolfdwlrq dqg gu|lqj ri fryhuv wrrn sodfh dw urrpwhpshudwxuh1

FU6 zdv xvhg wr whvw wkh h�hfw ri wkh frpelqdwlrq ri hsr{| joxh dqg grxeoh0vlghg doxplqlvhg SH0irlo1 Slhfhv ri irlo +49fp�49fp, zhuh joxhg zlwk hsr{|+317 njp32, rqh diwhu wkh rwkhu rq hyhu| idfh ri wkh fxeh xqwlo d ixoo fryhu zdvdffrpsolvkhg1 Diwhu wkh dssolfdwlrq rq hdfk idfh/ wkh udgrq0h{kdodwlrq udwhv/U?/ +q vwdqgv iru wkh qxpehu ri fryhuhg idfhv, zdv ghwhuplqhg1 Wkh vlgh0e|0vlghdssolfdwlrq ri wklv frpelqdwlrq ohdgv wr qr vljql�fdqw uhgxfwlrq ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv +vhh Ilj1 4316, gxh wr wkh idfw wkdw wkh frpelqdwlrq lv qrw 433(udgrq wljkw1 Hlwkhu wkh hsr{|0joxh od|hu vhuyhv dv d sdwk iru udgrq hvfdsh ru udgrqfrxog eh uhohdvhg dorqj wkh sro|hwk|ohqh0joxh lqwhuidfhv1 Wr jdlq d ehwwhu lqvljkw/wkh surshuwlhv ri hsr{| joxh zhuh vhsdudwho| h{dplqhg dv wkh irlo lv vxssrvhg wreh udgrq0wljkw1

Frqfuhwh whvw vdpsoh FU7 zdv �uvw ixoo| fryhuhg zlwk d vlqjoh od|hu ri hsr{|joxh +31: njp32, wr whvw wkh h�hfwlyhqhvv ri wklv dgkhvlyh1 D udgrq0uhohdvh udwhzdv phdvxuhg rqo| diwhu wkh joxh kdg kdughqhg1 Diwhuzdugv/ wkh fxeh zdv wrwdoo|fryhuhg zlwk wkh doxplqlvhg SH0irlo xvlqj wkh vdph hsr{| joxh dv mrlqlqj od|hu1Wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv phdvxuhg duh lqglfdwhg lq Wdeoh 45141 Dssolfdwlrq rqo|ri wkh �uvw hsr{| od|hu uhvxowhg lq d uhgxfwlrq ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh e| 53(1Udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv zhuh uhgxfhg xs wr 83( diwhu wkh dgglwlrqdo SH0irlo dssolfd0wlrq1 Wklv ydoxh fruuhvsrqgv wr wkh orzhu hqg ri wkh udqjh ri uhgxfwlrqv uhsruwhgiru hsr{|0edvhg frdwlqjv ^489`1 Dovr vxssruwhg e| wkh uhvxowv ri wkh cirlo0zudsshgvrxufh* h{shulphqwv +vhfwlrq 4315, 0zkhuh qr gl�huhqfh zdv phdvxuhg ehwzhhq wkheduh dqg wkh irlo0fryhuhg udgrq vrxufh0 wkh frqfoxvlrq lv wkdw wkh frpelqdwlrqhsr{|0joxh dqg SH0irlo lv udwkhu lqh�flhqw dqg prvw olnho| wkh hsr{| od|hu vhuyhv

4516 Uhvxowv 544

Wdeoh 4514= +@|�Lt Lu h@_L?�i �@*@|�L? h@|it uLh �?UL�ihi_ @?_ UL�ihi_ UL?_�|�L?t uLh @ |L|@*

UL�ih Lu UL?Uhi|i U�Mi �+e�

Vdpsoh U Uhgxfwlrq

+Et v3�, +(,Eduh fxeh +719315,�433D 0Rqh0od|hu hsr{| joxh +6199314:,�433D 548Dgglwlrqdo doxplql}hg SH0irlo +516;313:,�433D 7<6

dv dq hvfdsh sdwk iru udgrq1Lq vhdufk iru d 433( h�hfwlyh udgrq0wljkw fryhu/ wkh surshuwlhv ri rwkhu frdw0

lqjv zhuh ixuwkhu lqyhvwljdwhg1 Wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv iru rqh od|hu +316 njp32,dqg wkuhh od|huv +31< njp32, vroxeoh jodvv0fryhuhg fxeh FU8 zhuh phdvxuhg1Wkh fruuhvsrqglqj uhgxfwlrqv zlwk uhihuhqfh wr wkh ydoxh ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwhiru wkh eduh fxeh duh lqglfdwhg lq Wdeoh 45151 D pd{lpxp uhgxfwlrq ri 57( ri

Wdeoh 4515= +@|�Lt Lu h@_L?�i �@*@|�L? h@|it uLh �?UL�ihi_ @?_ UL�ihi_ UL?_�|�L?t �iht�t

?�4Mih Lu UL�ih *@)iht uLh @ |L|@* UL�ih�?} Lu UL?Uhi|i U�Mi �+D ��|� L?i @?_ |�hii *@)iht Lu

tL*�M*i }*@tt�

Vdpsoh U Uhgxfwlrq

+Et v3�, +(,Eduh fxeh +71:4313;,�433D 0Rqh0od|hu vroxeoh jodvv +61;73143,�433D 4;6Wkuhh0od|huv vroxeoh jodvv +618<313;,�433D 575Dgglwlrqdo wkuhh od|huv ri sro|hvwhu sdlqw +61:316,�433D 55:

wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv lv rewdlqhg e| wkh vxshusrvlwlrq ri wkuhh od|huv ri vroxeohjodvv1 Pruhryhu/ iurp d ylvxdo lqvshfwlrq lw dsshduhg wkdw li lq wkh ehjlqqlqj wkhvroxeoh jodvv irupv d jorvv| vxuidfh/ d vhyhuh ghjudgdwlrq zlwk d wlph vsdq ri vhy0hudo prqwkv rffxuv1 Wkh phfkdqlvp ri wklv ghjudgdwlrq lv uhodwhg wr wkh fkhplfdouhdfwlrq ri vroxeoh jodvv zlwk wkh dwprvskhulf FR2= Yld wklv uhdfwlrq/ dq dflg hq0ylurqphqw lv fuhdwhg wkdw doorzv wkh vroxeoh jodvv wr ixuwkhu uhdfw zlwk wkh vlolfdwhdqg fduerqdwh jurxsv suhvhqw lq frqfuhwh1 Lq wkh �uvw vwdjh ri wkh uhdfwlrq/ d jhowkdw frqvlvwv ri zdwhu dqg d odujh txdqwlw| ri djjorphudwhv frqqhfwhg zlwk wkh


Vl0R0Vl eulgjhv lv iruphg1 Lq wlph/ wkh jho gulhv rxw dqg rqo| d vwurqjo| vkuxqnhqod|hu ri vdqg +VlR2, uhpdlqv1 Dowkrxjk qrw phdvxuhg/ lw lv h{shfwhg wkdw wkhfruurghg vxuidfh orrvhv doo lwv surshuwlhv dv d udgrq eduulhu1 Frqfoxvlyho|/ fryhuvxvhg rq frqfuhwh vkrxog kdyh jrrg dondol uhvlvwdqfh wr suhyhqw wkh uhdfwlrqv +lqdq dflg hqylurqphqw, zlwk wkh vlolfdwh dqg fduerqdwh jurxsv lq frqfuhwh1

Diwhu vhyhudo prqwkv/ wkh vxuidfh ri frqfuhwh vdpsoh +FU8, zdv fohdqhg e|uhprylqj wkh vdqg0olnh fruurvlrq surgxfwv dqg wkuhh od|huv ri sro|hvwhu sdlqw

zhuh vxevhtxhqwo| dssolhg1 Zh dvvxphg wkdw wkh uhgxfwlrq ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv+zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh eduh fxeh, phdvxuhg e| dsso|lqj wkh wkuhh od|huv ri sro|hvwhusdlqw +55(, lw lv qrw dw doo lq�xhqfhg e| wkh suhylrxvo| dssolhg vroxeoh jodvv1 Wklvuhgxfwlrq lv djdlq wrr vpdoo iru wkh sdlqw wr eh xvhg dv h�hfwlyh udgrq eduulhu1

Doxplqxp sdlqw zdv vhohfwhg qh{w/ gxh wr lwv surshuw| ri iruplqj d phwdo0olnhvxuidfh1 Vxfk d phwdo0olnh vxuidfh zrxog eh h{shfwhg wr kdyh d ghqvhu vwuxfwxuhfrpsduhg wr wkh pruh frpprq vhdodqwv dqg sdlqwv1 Doxplqxp sdlqw zdv �uvwkrprjhqlvhg e| pl{lqj dqg wkhq dssolhg zlwk d euxvk rq doo wkh vxuidfhv rifrqfuhwh1 Dv shqhwudwlrq ri wkh frqfuhwh vxuidfh zdv revhuyhg/ wzr dgglwlrqdood|huv zhuh dssolhg1 Wdeoh 4516 vkrzv wkdw wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh iru d wkuhh0

Wdeoh 4516= +@|�Lt Lu h@_L?�i �@*@|�L? h@|it uLh �?UL�ihi_ @?_ UL�ihi_ UL?_�|�L?t uLh @ |L|@*

UL�ihi_ UL?Uhi|i U�Mi �+2��

Vdpsoh U Uhgxfwlrq

+Et v3�, +(,Eduh fxeh +61563145,�433D 0Wkuhh od|huv ri doxplqxp sdlqw +51;315,�433D 46;

od|huv fryhuhg fxeh rqo| lv 4148 wlphv orzhu wkdq wkh rqh fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkheduh fxeh +FU54,1

Wkh fryhuv lqyhvwljdwhg wkxv idu ehorqj wr d uhodwlyho| frpprq fodvv ri frdw0lqjv1 D pruh vrsklvwlfdwhg fodvv ehorqjv wr wkh sro|phulf phpeudqhv vshfldoo|ghvljqhg wr kdyh d kljkhu gxudelolw|1 Rqh ri wkhvh sro|phulf pl{wxuhv 0shuvsh{ 0iruphv sodvwlf0olnh lpsdfw0uhvlvwdqw vxuidfhv dw kdughqlqj1 Wkh fryhu zdv dssolhgrq frqfuhwh FU57 e| �uvw pl{lqj wkh prqrphu zlwk d vxlwdeoh dprxqw ri kdug0hqhu dqg vwluulqj wkh oltxlg iru d ihz plqxwhv1 Wkh pl{wxuh zdv vxffhvvlyho|dssolhg rq doo vxuidfhv ri wkh frqfuhwh fxeh diwhu lw kdg �uvw gulhg rq hdfk idfh1Wr suhyhqw wkh vroxwlrq wr ohdn dorqj wkh vlghv d eduulhu ri Gxfn0wdsh zdv frq0vwuxfwhg dw wkh irxu vlghv1 Rq hdfk vxuidfh wzr fryhulqjv zhuh dssolhg1 Wkh wrwdo

4517 Glvfxvvlrqv dqg frqfoxvlrqv 546

wklfnqhvv ri wkh fryhu zdv dssur{lpdwho| 6 wr 7 pp1 Uhvxowv ri udgrq0uhohdvhudwh phdvxuhphqwv duh olvwhg lq Wdeoh 45171 Dq lpsuryhphqw lq wkh ydoxh ri wkhuhgxfwlrq idfwru frpsduhg wr wkh suhylrxv ghwhuplqhg ydoxhv zdv rewdlqhg1

Wdeoh 4517= +@_L?�hi_�U|�L? u@U|Lht Lu |�L TL*)4ih�U 4i4Mh@?it E�� @?_ ��A�� L?

h@_L?�hi*i@ti h@|it uhL4 UL?Uhi|i�

Vdpsoh U Uhgxfwlrq

+Et v3�, +(,Eduh fxeh +FU57, +819316,�433D

Wzr od|huv ri SPPD +515318,�433D 94<Eduh fxeh +FU5<, +916317,�433D 0SSWD irlo dqg hsr{| dgkhvlyh � OOG @+31453139,�433D <;4

Ilehu0uhlqirufhg sro|phulf uhvlqv duh riwhq xvhg dv vhdodqwv lq kljk0ydfxxpwhfkqltxhv1 D frpelqdwlrq ri SSWD irlo dqg hsr{| dgkhvlyh +vhh vhfwlrq 4515,zdv xvhg iru d frpsohwh fryhu ri frqfuhwh fxeh FU5<1 Wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh vr0rewdlqhg od|hu +joxh dqg irlo, zdv dssur{lpdwho| 4 pp1 Wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv+Wdeoh 4517, iru wkh fryhuhg vlwxdwlrq lqglfdwh lqghhg d frpsohwh uhgxfwlrq1 Dqdgglwlrqdo phdvxuhphqw ri wkh srurvlw| ri wkh fryhuhg fxeh zlwk wkh srurvlphwhu+vhfwlrq :18, uhvxowhg lq d ydoxh ri % @ +3=336 3=338, dqg lqglfdwhv wkdw wkhfryhu lv frpsohwho| lpshuphdeoh wr qlwurjhq1

�2�e #�tU�tt�L?t @?_ UL?U*�t�L?t

Wkh udgrq0uhgxfwlrq idfwru ri d ydulhw| ri fryhuv dssolhg rq frqfuhwh zdv gh0whuplqhg +vhfwlrq 4516,1 Uhgxfwlrqv durxqg 53( zhuh dfklhyhg iru vlpsoh frdw0lqjv olnh hsr{| joxh/ vroxeoh jodvv dqg doxplqxp sdlqw1 D frpelqdwlrq ri rqhod|hu ri hsr{| joxh dqg sro|hwk|ohqh irlo lqfuhdvhv wkh udgrq0uhgxfwlrq wr 83(1Udgrq0uhgxfwlrqv lq wkh udqjh 83( wr 433( zhuh ghwhuplqhg iru wkh sro|phulfphpeudqhv SPPD dqg SSWD1 Wkh revhuyhg yduldwlrqv lq wkh uhgxfwlrq h�hfwvh{klelwhg e| wkhvh fryhuv duh prvw suredeo| uhodwhg wr vwuxfwxudo gl�huhqfhv1 Lwvhhpv wkdw wkh vhdodqwv/ dgkhvlyhv dqg uhjxodu sdlqwv irup d pruh shuphdeoh vxu0idfh od|hu zlwk uhodwlyho| srru shuirupdqfhv frpsduhg wr wkh pruh vrsklvwlfdwhgsro|phu0edvhg sdlqwv dqg phpeudqhv1

Vhohfwlrq ri frdwlqjv dv h�hfwlyh udgrq eduulhuv djdlqvw udgrq vkrxog wdnh lqwr


frqvlghudwlrq wkh uhvxow dlphg dw/ wkh dssolfdwlrq phwkrg/ srvvleoh lqwhudfwlrqvzlwk wkh vxevwudwh2hqylurqphqw dqg gxudelolw| surshuwlhv1 Iru vrph fdvhv d uh0gxfwlrq xs wr 83( frxog eh vx�flhqw wr dfklhyh wkh ghvluhg h�hfw +l1h1 uhgxfhudgrq uhohdvh vr wkdw lqgrru dlu frqfhqwudwlrqv idoo ehorz wkh culvn* ohyhov,1 Wkxv/wkh xvh ri vlpsohu frdwlqjv +hdvlo| dssolfdeoh dqg uhodwlyho| lqh{shqvlyh, zrxog ehvdwlvidfwru| hqrxjk1 Krzhyhu/ iru d vhyhuh uhgxfwlrq ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv/ pruhvrsklvwlfdwhg frdwlqjv kdyh wr eh xvhg1 Zlwk wkh h{fhswlrq ri vroxeoh jodvv/ wkhudgrq0uhgxfwlrq surshuwlhv ri wkh rwkhu lqyhvwljdwhg fryhuv zhuh qrw lq�xhqfhge| wkh lqwhudfwlrqv zlwk wkh hqylurqphqw dqg wkhlu shuirupdqfh lv h{shfwhg wr ehsuhvhuyhg ryhu uhodwlyho| orqj wlph0shulrgv1 Uhgxfwlrq whfkqltxhv xvlqj frdwlqjpdwhuldov lv fhuwdlqo| suhihuuhg wr yhqwlodwlrq/ qrw rqo| iru uhdvrqv ri hqhuj| frq0vhuydwlrq exw dovr gxh wr d ehwwhu sulfh0shuirupdqfh udwlr1 Dq dwwhpsw wr prghoshuphdelolw| surshuwlhv ri sro|phulf phpeudqhv lv suhvhqwhg lq fkdswhu 461

��

�L*iU�*@h 4L_i**�?} LuTL*)4ih�U 4i4Mh@?it

�� W?|hL_�U|�L?

Dv ghvfulehg lq fkdswhu 45 fryhuv rq pdwhuldov kdyh udgrq uhgxfwlrq surshuwlhvwkdw ghshqg rq wkh vrxufh dqg wkh prgh ri suhsdudwlrq1 Wr ehwwhu xqghuvwdqg wkhudgrq0wudqvsruw surshuwlhv ri sro|phu phpeudqhv/ prohfxodu prghoolqj vhhpv wreh d wrro wr ylvxdolvh prohfxodu jhrphwu|/ frqvwuxfw g|qdplf prghov ri frp0srxqgv dqg suhglfw wkhlu ydulrxv sk|vlfdo surshuwlhv1 E| suhglfwlqj prohfxodusurshuwlhv ehiruh v|qwkhvlvlqj wkh frpsrxqgv/ lw pd|eh srvvleoh wr irfxv wkhh{shulphqwv rq wkh prvw surplvlqj pdwhuldov1

Iru h{dpsoh/ phpeudqh shuphdwlrq fkdudfwhulvwlfv iru d sduwlfxodu pl{hg jdvv|vwhp duh fdofxodwhg w|slfdoo| iurp vlqjoh0frpsrqhqw/ htxloleulxp dqg wudqvsruwsdudphwhuv/ qdpho|/ gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv dqg vroxelolw| frqvwdqwv +Ht1 816,1 Erwkfrh�flhqwv ghshqg rq ydulrxv sdudphwhuv fkdudfwhulvlqj wkh sro|phu phpeudqh+fkhplfdo vwuxfwxuh dqg pruskrorj|,/ rq hqylurqphqwdo sdudphwhuv +whpshud0

548

549 Prohfxodu prghoolqj ri sro|phulf phpeudqhv

Entropy and enthalpy;Solubilities;Polymer Morphologies;Void Distribution;Time Scaling.

Void Dynamics;Length Scaling;Diffusion Coefficients;

Permeabilties;LaminateComposites;

FiniteElements

Flat PanelDisplaysBarrier Coatings

0.1 nm 1 nm 10 nm 1 µm 1 cm 1 m

Iljxuh 4614= 5U�i4i ThLTLti_ @| |�i �@|ih�@* @?_ �hLUitt 5�4�*@|�L? �i?|ihc �@*|iU�c N5�c

uLh @ 4�*|��tU@*ic ��ih@hU��U@* t|h@|i}) uLh 4@|ih�@*t 4L_i**�?}� ,@U� Lu |�i *@h}i t�4�*@|�L? tU@*it

hi*�it L? |�i �?uLh4@|�L? i4Mi__i_ �? |�i �?ih tU@*i EuLhUi �i*_ T@h@4i|ihtc |�ih4L_)?@4�U Lh

!�?i|�U ^�@?|�|�it @?_ 4@|ih�@* ThLTih|�it�� A��t *i@_t |L �ht|�Th�?U�T*i 4L_i*�?} @| |�i *@h}it|

tU@*i�

wxuh/ suhvvxuh/ uhodwlyh kxplglw|, dqg rq wkh sk|vlfdo lqwhudfwlrq ehwzhhq wkhshqhwudqw dqg eduulhu pdwhuldo +k|gurjhq erqgv/ srodu jurxs lqwhudfwlrqv,1 Dphwkrg fdsdeoh ri prghoolqj sro|phu phpeudqhv dqg suhglfw wkhlu vroxelolw|dqg gl�xvlyh surshuwlhv zrxog eh ri juhdw lqwhuhvw dqg dfwxdoo| uhsuhvhqwv rqh riwkh suhvhqw irfxvhv ri uhvhdufk lq wkh duhd1

Hqjlqhhulqj fdofxodwlrqv +Ilj1 4614, hpsor| �qlwh0hohphqwv phwkrgv +IHP, wrvlpxodwh ydulrxv surfhvvhv iru ohqjwk dqg wlph0vfdohv ri plfurqv dqg plfurvhfrqgvdqg orqjhu1 Iluvw sulqflsohv dwrplvwlf phwkrgv/ vxfk dv Prohfxodu G|qdplfv+PG, jhqhudoo| dffhvvhv wlph vfdohv ri qdqrvhfrqgv zlwk glphqvlrqv ri 4 qpwr 53qp1 Dowkrxjk PG xvxdoo| xvhv hpslulfdo irufh �hogv +II, wr ghvfulehdwrplf lqwhudfwlrqv/ lw lv srvvleoh wr rewdlq wkh II sdudphwhuv iurp qrq0hpslulfdo

4614 Lqwurgxfwlrq 54:

txdqwxp phfkdqlfdo +TP, fdofxodwlrqv rq v|vwhpv zlwk xs wr 433 dwrpv1 Wreulgjh wkh g|qdplfv jds iurp PG wlph vfdohv wr IHP/ lw lv riwhq srvvleoh wr xvhPrqwh Fduor dojrulwkpv +dyhudjlqj ryhu wkh hvvhqwldo ihdwxuhv ri wkh orzhu wlphdqg ohqjwk vfdohv,1

Wkh pxowl0vfdoh +wlph dqg ohqjwk, vwudwhj| sursrvhg khuh� lv exlow xsrq �uvw0sulqflsohv Prohfxodu G|qdplfv +PG, dqg Prqwh Fduor +PF, phwkrgv1 Wkhklhudufklfdo surfhgxuh lv lqglfdwhg dovr lq Ilj1 46141 Vxfk vwudwhjlhv kdyh ehhqdssolhg wr vhyhudo sureohpv/ lqfoxglqj wkh ghyhorsphqw ri eduulhu frdwlqjv iru �h{0leoh �dw sdqho glvsod|v1 Krzhyhu/ rqfh surshuo| ydolgdwhg/ wklv dssurdfk vkrxogeh xvhixo iru d frpelqdwruldo vhdufk ri kljk shuirupdqfh sro|phulf eduulhuv iruydulrxv rwkhu dssolfdwlrqv lqfoxglqj surwhfwlrq djdlqvw hqylurqphqwdo hohphqwvolnh udgrq1 Wkh xvh ri eduulhu frdwlqjv surylghv d vlpsoh/ hqhuj| h�flhqw whfk0qltxh/ hfrqrplfdoo| frpshwlwlyh zlwk wudglwlrqdo whfkqrorjlhv1

Wkh vlpxodwlrq dqg prghoolqj hqylurqphqw 0Fhulxv2 +Ilj1 9 lq wkh frorxu sodwhvhfwlrq,0 lv xvxdoo| hpsor|hg lq ydulrxv dwrplvwlf vfdoh fdofxodwlrqv dqg r�huv deurdg udqjh ri vflhqwl�f dssolfdwlrq prgxohv iru d zlgh udqjh ri pdwhuldov fodvvhvlqfoxglqj fhudplfv/ vhplfrqgxfwruv/ dqg phwdov1 Txdqwlwlhv vxfk dv jhrphwulfvwuxfwxuh/ hqhujlhv/ fkdujh ghqvlw|/ vxuidfh duhd hwf1 dqg d odujh ydulhw| ri surs0huwlhv ri vrolgv/ lqwhuidfhv/ dqg vxuidfhv +l1h1 vroxelolwlhv/ gl�xvlylwlhv/ dgvruswlrq/dgkhvlrq/ vxuidfh whqvlrqv, fdq eh fdofxodwhg1 Fhulxv2 lv dovr d frpsuhkhqvlyhprghoolqj hqylurqphqw iru exloglqj/ hglwlqj dqg ylvxdolvlqj prghov ri prohfxoduvwuxfwxuh1

Wklv fkdswhu uhsruwv lqlwldo �qglqjv rq prghoolqj ri sro|phu phpeudqhv1 Dqdwwhpsw wr hvwlpdwh wkh vroxelolw| dqg gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv ri wzr phpeudqhv+sro|surs|ohqh/ SS dqg sro|hwk|ohqhwhuhskwdodwh/ SHW, zlwk uhvshfw wr udgrqlv pdgh1 Iluvw/ wkh phwkrg hpsor|hg wr frqvwuxfw wkh sro|phu vdpsohv lv eulh�|rxwolqhg lq vhfwlrq 4615 zlwk h{hpsol�fdwlrq iru wkh SHW vdpsoh1 Vhfwlrqv 4616dqg 4617 ghvfuleh wkh phwkrgrorj| wr fdofxodwh vroxelolw| dqg gl�xvlrq frh�0flhqwv1 D glvfxvvlrq ri wkh rewdlqhg uhvxowv dqg srvvleoh vrxufhv ri revhuyhgglvfuhsdqflhv lv jlyhq lq vhfwlrq 46181 Fhulxv2 zdv xvhg wr frqvwuxfw wkh sro|phuvdpsohv dqg dovr shuirup wkh fdofxodwlrqv1

�A�i ULT)h�}�| Lu |��t 4i|�L_ Mi*L?}t |L |�i �@|ih�@* @?_ �hLUitt 5�4�*@|�L? �i?|ihc �@*�|iU�c N5� @?_ |�i ��ih) +iti@hU� �i?|ihc �@t@_i?@c N�5��

54; Prohfxodu prghoolqj ri sro|phulf phpeudqhv

��2 5@4T*i UL?t|h�U|�L?

Wkh �uvw vwhs lq frqvwuxfwlqj d sro|phu vdpsoh/ diwhu ordglqj lwv prqrphu xqlwiurp wkh dpruskrxv exloghu gdwd edvh ri Fhulxv2 lv wr prgho lwv frqirupdwlrqdoehkdylrxu ^;5`1 Wkh prohfxodu v|vwhp lv wuhdwhg dw dwrplf ohyho +lqglylgxdo hohf0wurqv duh qrw frqvlghuhg, dqg dq hqhuj| ixqfwlrq lv xvhg1 Wkh hqhuj| ixqfwlrqlv hpslulfdo +|hw lw pdnhv glvwlqfwlrq ehwzhhq erqghg dqg qrq0erqghg lqwhudf0wlrqv, dqg gh�qhg vxfk wkdw/ jlyhq d sduwlfxodu frqirupdwlrq/ +l1h1 d vhw ri vsdwldofrruglqdwhv iru doo wkh dwrpv, wkh hqhuj| ri wkh v|vwhp fdq eh fdofxodwhg1 Wkhfroohfwlrq ri doo wkh sdudphwhuv uhtxluhg lq wkh hqhuj| ixqfwlrq +irufh frqvwdqwv/erqg ohqjwkv/ dqjohv dqg ydoxhv dqg sduwldo fkdujhv, duh uhdg iurp wkh vhohfwhgirufh �hog +II,/ suhgh�qhg lq Fhulxv21 Wkh hohphqwv ri d irufh �hog duh wkh dwrpw|shv dqg wkh irufh �hog sdudphwhuv zloo ghshqg rq wkh w|shv ri dwrpv lqyroyhg lqwkh lqwhudfwlrq ^:8`1 Wkh irufh �hog lv fkrvhq rq edvlv ri wkh sxusrvh dqg wkh w|shri wkh lqyhvwljdwhg v|vwhp +rujdqlf/ lqrujdqlf ru frpelqdwlrq ri erwk,1 Lq wkhsuhvhqw vwxg| dq h{srqhqwldo irup ri wkh Guhlglqj irufh �hog ^:8` zdv hpsor|hg1

Wr rswlplvh wkh jhrphwu| ri d sro|phu/ wkh wruvlrqdo srwhqwldov dqg wkh Urwd0wlrq Lvrphulf Vwdwh +ULV, wdeoh ^;5` duh rewdlqhg e| vhohfwlqj iurp wkh sro|phu*vpdlq edfnerqh/ sruwlrqv durxqg d vnhohwdo fduerq0fduerq erqg gh�qlqj d fhu0wdlq frqirupdwlrq +wruvlrqv, dqg e| fdofxodwlqj wkh ghshqghqfh ri wkh wruvlrqdohqhuj| rq wkh wruvlrqdo dqjoh yld hqhuj| plqlplvdwlrq1

Wkh exon sro|phu lv wkhq prghohg dv dq lq�qlwh 6G v|vwhp e| xvlqj d shulrglfxqlw fhoo1 Wklv phdqv wkdw d fxeh ri wkh dssursuldwh yroxph wr frqwdlq wkhvwuxfwxuh dw d uhtxhvwhg lqlwldo +orz, ghqvlw| lv frqvwuxfwhg1 Zkhqhyhu wkh fkdlqohdyhv wkh fhoo zkloh lw lv ehlqj exlow/ lwv shulrglf lpdjh lv jhqhudwhg rq wkhrssrvlwh idfh ri wkh fhoo dqg jurzwk frqwlqxhv lqwr wkh fhoo1 Dw wkh hqg ri wkhexloglqj surfhvv/ wkh frpsohwh fkdlq pd| h�hfwlyho| frpsulvh pdq| xqlw fhoov1Wkh xqlw fhoo lv wkhq vxemhfwhg wr d vhulhv ri frpsuhvvlrq dqg h{sdqvlrq vwhsv+Ilj1 : lq wkh frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq, wr uhod{ wkh vdpsohv dqg wr lqfuhdvh wkhsdfnlqj ghqvlw| xqwlo phfkdqlfdo htxloleulxp lv uhdfkhg1 Wkh surwrfro xvhg lqProhfxodu G|qdplfv wr jhqhudwh zhoo dqqhdohg sro|phu vdpsohv/ xvxdoo| dw urrpwhpshudwxuh/ lv fdoohg wkh dqqhdolqj surwrfro1 D wdujhw ghqvlw| +vshfl�f iru hdfksro|phu, lv vhw lq wklv prgxoh/ lwv ydoxh ehlqj wdnhq iurp olwhudwxuh1

Jlyhq dq htxloleudwhg vwuxfwxuh zh xvh Prohfxodu G|qdplf +PG, wr vlpxodwhwkh g|qdplf ehkdylrxu ri wkh v|vwhp ^83`1 Vwduwlqj zlwk d vxlwdeoh lqlwldo frqiru0pdwlrq ri wkh v|vwhp +l1h1 d surshuo| hqhuj|0plqlplvhg vwuxfwxuh,/ wr hdfk dwrpd yhorflw| lv udqgrpo| dvvljqhg iurp wkh Pd{zhoo0Erow}pdqq glvwulexwlrq dw wkhwhpshudwxuh ri lqwhuhvw1 Wkh hqhuj| ixqfwlrq lv wkhq xvhg wr fdofxodwh wkh irufhv

4615 Vdpsoh frqvwuxfwlrq 54<

Iljxuh 4615= �L*)�i|�)*i?i�|ihiT�|@*@|i E�,A� 4L?L4ih ��|� #hi�_�?} d.Do @|L4 |)T�?}�

rq doo dwrpv1 Wr ghwhuplqh krz wkh v|vwhp hyroyhv ryhu wlph/ Qhzwrq*v htxd0wlrqv ri prwlrq duh lqwhjudwhg1 D orqj PG0vlpxodwlrq ri d sro|phu iru h{dpsoh/surylghv lqvljkw lqwr lwv frqirupdwlrqdo �h{lelolw| dv zhoo dv lqwr wkh wlph0vfdohri wkhvh frqirupdwlrqdo �xfwxdwlrqv1 Wkh �uvw sduw ri wkh vlpxodwlrq +43053(ri wkh wrwdo vlpxodwlrq wlph, fruuhvsrqgv wr wkh htxloleudwlrq ri wkh v|vwhp dwwkh whpshudwxuh ri lqwhuhvw1 Wkh cuhdo pryhphqw* ri wkh v|vwhp wkhq iroorzv wklvhtxloleudwlrq skdvh1 Vhyhudo vqdsvkrwv ri wkh v|vwhp duh vdyhg lq d wudmhfwru| �ohiru odwhu vwuxfwxudo dqg hqhujhwlf dqdo|vlv1

Iru wkh gl�xvlrq dqg vroxelolw| frh�flhqwv fdofxodwlrqv/ d prgho ri wkh vru0edwh prohfxoh +FR2/ K2R/ R2/ Q2/ Uq, lv fuhdwhg lqfoxglqj wkh surshu dwrplffkdujhv1 Wkhvh frh�flhqwv duh wkhq fdofxodwhg iurp wkh lqwhudfwlrqv ehwzhhq wkhhtxloleudwhg sro|phu vdpsoh dqg wkh vruehqw prohfxoh/ xvlqj frpelqhg ProhfxoduG|qdplfv dqg Prqwh Fduor whfkqltxhv rxwolqhg lq vhfwlrqv 4616 dqg 46171

��2�� , @4T*i

Ilj1 4615 vkrzv wkh prohfxodu vwuxfwxuh ri wkh prqrphu xqlw ri sro|0hwk|ohqh0wh0uhskwdodwh +SHW, dqg wkh fruuhvsrqglqj dwrp w|slqj dffruglqj wr Guhlglqj ^:8`1Iru h{dpsoh/ dq| ri wkh fduerq dwrpv lqyroyhg lq wkh durpdwlf ulqj +uhvrqdqfhvlwxdwlrq, lv ghqrwhg e| F U zkloh F 6 vwdqgv iru dq| ri wkh fduerq dwrpv vs�

k|eulglvhg21 Wkh vs2 k|eulglvhg r{|jhq dwrpv duh ghqrwhg e| R U1 Iru SHW/

2W? |�i ThLUitt Lu �)Mh�_�t@|�L? |�i i*iU|hL?t hi@hh@?}i |�i4ti*�it �?|L �_i?|�U@* �)Mh�_LhM�|@*t EtT� |�@| @hi i?ih}i|�U@**) 4Lhi t|@M*i�


gxulqj wkh frpsxwdwlrqv ri wkh fkdujhv zlwk Fhulxv2/ wkh khdg dqg wdlo dwrpv+k|gurjhqv, zhuh uhsodfhg e| phwk|o jurxsv +FK�, wr dyrlg whuplqdo h�hfwv1 Wkhfkdujhv zhuh wkhq dvvljqhg wr wkh dwrpv lq wkh prqrphu diwhu �uvw uhsodflqj wkhwhuplqdo phwk|o jurxsv zlwk k|gurjhq dwrpv1 Wkh uhvlgxdo fkdujh zdv uhglv0wulexwhg ryhu wkh hqwluh prqrphu/ h{fhsw iru wkh whuplqdo k|gurjhq dwrpv wkdwuhpdlq xqfkdujhg +dv wkh| duh rqo| xvhg dv gxpp| dwrpv dqg ghohwhg diwhu wkhprqrphu lv xvhg wr jhqhudwh d sro|phu,1

Iru SHW d wulphu zdv exlow dqg wkh iroorzlqj wkuhh uhsuhvhqwdwlyh wruvlrqv�

zhuh vhohfwhg= wruvlrq F 60R U0F 60F U ghqrwhg dv w�/ wruvlrq F 60R U0F 60F 6ghqrwhg dv w2 dqg wruvlrq R U0F 60F 60R U dv w�1 Wkh vwuxfwxuh zdv plqlplvhgzlwk uhvshfw wr wruvlrq w�/ wruvlrq w� frxsohg wr w2/ dqg �qdoo| wruvlrq w2 frxsohgwr w�1 Wkh sur�oh ri wkh hqhuj| yhuvxv wkh wrwdo qxpehu ri frqirupdwlrqv iruwruvlrq w� dqg wkh ghqvlw| frqwrxuv iru wkh rwkhu wzr frxsohg fdvhv duh vkrzq lqIlj1 ; +frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,1

Lq Ilj1 ;D +frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,/ wkh shdnv lq hqhuj| fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkhwruvlrq dqjohv ri 78�/ 4;8� dqg 5<3� fruuhvsrqg wr wkuhh orfdo plqlpd ri wkhvwuxfwxuh lqglfdwlqj uhsuhvhqwdwlyh vwdwhv ri wkh sro|phu1 Wkh gl�huhqfh ehwzhhqwkh orzhvw dqg kljkhvw hqhuj| frqiruphuv lv derxw 75 nMpro3�1 Iru wkh ghq0vlw| frqwrxuv wkh frorxu frgh kdv wr eh lqwhusuhwhg dv iroorzv= wkh gdun uhjlrqvfruuhvsrqg wr orz fruuhodwhg wruvlrqv zkloh wkh fruuhodwlrq ghjuhh lqfuhdvhv wkheuljkwhu wkh frorxu1 Iurp Ilj1 ;E dqg Ilj1 ;F +frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq, rqh fdqvhh wkdw wkh frxsohg wruvlrqv w�0w2 duh ohvv �h{leoh wkdq w20w�1 Wklv lv gxh wr wkhidfw wkdw lq wkh w�0w2 frxsolqj wkh suhvhqfh ri wkh grxeoh erqghg r{|jhq lq wkhforvh ylflqlw| ri wkh uhvrqdqw fduerq pdnhv lw gl�fxow iru wkh vwuxfwxuh wr ehqg1Wkxv/ wkh rswlpdo frqirupdwlrq iru wkh wruvlrqv w�0w2 rffxuv zkhq wkh grxeoherqghg r{|jhq dqg wkh fduerq0fduerq uhvrqdqw erqg +lq wruvlrq w�, uhpdlq lqwkh vdph sodqh1 Dv qrqh ri wkh wruvlrqv lq wkh w20w� frxsolqj frqwdlqv d uhvrqdqwfduerq/ wkh vwuxfwxuh kdv pruh ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp1 Wkh hqhujlhv ri wkh wzr orfdoplqlpd lq wkh w�0w2 frxsolqj dovr gl�hu e| derxw 75 nMpro3� zkloh iru wkh w20w�frxsolqj wkh gl�huhqfh lv kljkhu +derxw 543 nMpro3�,1 Irxu vwdwhv duh gh�qhgiru wkh frxsohg w20w� wruvlrqv1 Wkh dqjohv iru erwk wruvlrqv +w2 dqg w�, dqg wkhhqhujlhv +lq nMpro3�, duh vxppdulvhg lq Wdeoh 46141 Wkh wrohudqfh ri wkh wruvlrqdqjohv lq doo wkhvh fdvhv +w�/ w�0w2/ w20w�, zhuh fdofxodwhg iurp wkh fruuhvsrqglqj4( yduldwlrq lq wkh hqhuj| ydoxhv1 Wkh Urwdwlrq Lvrphulf Vwdwh wdeoh frqwdlqv

�A�i |Lht�L? @?}*i Et�4T*) hiuihhi_ |L @t |Lht�L?� Lu uL�h @|L4t ��# �t _i�?i_ @t |�i@?}*i Mi|�ii? |�i |�L T*@?itc L?i UL?|@�?�?} @|L4t �c � @?_ � @?_ |�i L|�ih UL?|@�?�?} @|L4t�c � @?_ #� � |Lht�L? @?}*i U@? �@h) |�hL�}� �Sff @*|�L�}� |�i h@?}i ��Hff |L n�Hff �t 4Lt|UL44L?*) �ti_�

4615 Vdpsoh frqvwuxfwlrq 554

doo wkh lqirupdwlrq fkdudfwhulvlqj wkh uhsuhvhqwdwlyh vwdwhv ri htxloleulxp +ru or0fdo htxloleulxp, ri wkh sro|phu dqg lv exlow e| frpslolqj doo wkh ydoxhv ri wkhhqhujlhv/ dqjohv dqg wrohudqfhv rewdlqhg iru wkh wkuhh deryh ghslfwhg vlwxdwlrqv1

Wdeoh 4614= +iThiti?|@|��i t|@|it uLh UL�T*i_ |2�|� |Lht�L?t @?_ |�i�h ULhhitTL?_�?} |Lht�L?@*

i?ih}�it E!a4L*3�� @*�i Lu Hef !a4L*

3� �?_�U@|it @ |�ih4@**) �?@UUitt�M*i UL?uLh4@|�L?�

A�i |Lht�L? @?}*it uhL4 6�}� H EUL*L�h T*@|i tiU|�L?� @hi �ihi }��i? L? |�i ff |L �Sff tU@*i�

|�.|2 2f.� 2eH� 2Se�

�e� Hef Hef S�fSS� S�f S�f Hef2be� Hef S�D Hef�fb� S�D Hef Hef

Iru SHW/ wkh lqirupdwlrq frqwdlqhg lq wkh ULV wdeoh lv xvhg dv lqsxw iruwkh dqqhdolqj surwrfro dqg whq dpruskrxv vdpsohv duh frqvwuxfwhg1 Dqqhdohgg|qdplfv zdv shuiruphg ehwzhhq 5<; N dqg 833 N/ uhvshfwlyho| iru 833sv wrhqvxuh ixoo uhod{dwlrq ri wkh vdpsoh1 D ydoxh ri 4166 j fp3� fruuhvsrqglqj wr dqdpruskrxv/ qrq0rulhqwhg v|vwhp zdv xvhg dv lqsxw wdujhw ghqvlw|1 Wkh ydoxh riwkh ghqvlw| fdofxodwhg iurp wkh dqqhdolqj surwrfro dv dyhudjh ryhu wkh whq jhq0hudwhg vdpsohv lv 41593135 j fp3�1 Fruuhvsrqglqj wr wklv ghqvlw|/ d yroxph ri813;3=34 qp � lv dvvljqhg wr wkh xqlw fhoo1 Wkh fdofxodwhg ghqvlw| lv xqghuhv0wlpdwhg e| derxw 9( frpsduhg wr wkh wdujhw ghqvlw|/ ehfdxvh lq wkh prghoolqjsurfhvv orzhu prohfxodu zhljkwv zhuh frqvlghuhg1 Iru dq lq�qlwh prohfxodu zhljkwfkdlq +qr hqgv, d ghqvlw| ri 4166 j fp3� zdv rewdlqhg iurp prghoolqj1 Krzhyhu/iru frpsxwdwlrqdo0wlph uhdvrqv/ wkh PG vdpsohv zhuh xvhg lq rxu fdofxodwlrqv1W|slfdoo|/ lqgxvwuldo judgh sro|phuv fdq kdyh ohqjwkv zlwk ryhu 4/333 prqrphuv1Wkhvh duh wrr orqj wr prgho lq dq| sudfwlfdo vlpxodwlrq wlph vfdoh1

Xvxdoo| d 533svPG uxq suryhg wr eh orqj hqrxjk iru wkh vdpsohv lqyhvwljdwhglq wklv vwxg|/ d wrwdo ri 733 iudphv ehlqj vdyhg +rqh iudph hyhu| 318 sv,1 Wkh PG

uxq lv shuiruphg xvlqj QSW hqvhpeoh +frqvwdqw qxpehu ri sduwlfohv/ suhvvxuhdqg whpshudwxuh, rq rqh ri wkh whq vdpsohv jhqhudwhg lq wkh dqqhdolqj surwrfro/vhohfwhg wr uhsuhvhqw ehvw wkh dyhudjhg ghqvlw| dqg frkhvlyh hqhuj| ri wkh whqvdpsohv1


�� 5L*�M�*�|) U@*U�*@|�L?t

Wkh vroxelolw| ri d jdv lq d oltxlg ru vrolg ghshqgv rq whpshudwxuh/ wkh sduwldosuhvvxuh ri wkh jdv ryhu wkh oltxlg2vrolg/ wkh qdwxuh ri wkh vroyhqw dqg wkh qdwxuhri wkh jdv1 Jdv vroxelolw| lv dozd|v olplwhg e| wkh htxloleulxp ehwzhhq wkh jdvdqg wkh vdwxudwhg vroxwlrq ri wkh jdv1 Wkh sduwldo suhvvxuh frqwurov wkh qxpehuri jdv prohfxoh froolvlrqv zlwk wkh vxuidfh ri wkh vroxwlrq1 Li wkh sduwldo suhvvxuhlv grxeohg/ wkh qxpehu ri froolvlrqv zlwk wkh vxuidfh zloo grxeoh dqg pruh jdvzloo glvvroyh1 Dw htxloleulxp/ wkh qxpehu ri prohfxohv ohdylqj wkh jdv skdvh wrhqwhu wkh vroxwlrq htxdov wkh qxpehu ri jdv prohfxohv ohdylqj wkh vroxwlrq1 Dw dfrqvwdqw whpshudwxuh/ W / wkh glvvroyhg jdv reh|v Khqu|*v odz zklfk vwdwhv/ wkdwwkh frqfhqwudwlrq ri d jdv lq d vroxwlrq +sro|phulf phpeudqh lq wklv fdvh,/ fR/ lvgluhfwo| sursruwlrqdo wr wkh sduwldo suhvvxuh/ s/ ri wkdw jdv deryh wkh vroxwlrq=

fR @ V � s> +4614,

zlwk wkh vroxelolw| frqvwdqw/ V/ dv wkh sursruwlrqdolw| idfwru1 Iru vlpsoh dqgqrw h{wuhpho| vroxeoh jdvhv wklv uhodwlrqvkls lv ydolg xs wr sduwldo suhvvxuhv riderxw 4 dwprvskhuh ^48<`1 Wkh vroxelolw| ri vlpsoh jdvhv lv qrupdoo| h{suhvvhg lqfp�+VWS, fp3�+sro|phu, dwp3�1 Wkxv/ wkh xqlwv iru frqfhqwudwlrq duh fp� fp3�

dqg wkrvh iru wkh sduwldo suhvvxuh/ dwprvskhuhv1 Krzhyhu/ lq fkhplvwu|/ wkh frq0fhqwudwlrqv duh h{suhvvhg lq prop3�1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ wkh xqlw iru wkh vroxelolw|zloo eh prop3� dwp3�1 Dv iru prvw v|vwhpv wkh glvvroxwlrq uhdfwlrqv duh h{rwkhu0plf lq qdwxuh/ wkh vroxelolw| zloo ghfuhdvh zlwk whpshudwxuh lqfuhdvh1

Wkh phwkrg dgrswhg lq wkh Fhulxv2 vlpxodwlrq hqylurqphqw wr fdofxodwh vrox0elolwlhv xvhv wkh irupdolvp ri judqg fdqrqlfdo Prqwh Fduor +JFPF,1 Wkh hqhuj|X+u>�, fruuhvsrqglqj wr hdfk srvlwlrq dqg rulhqwdwlrq ri wkh vruedwh prohfxohlv fdofxodwhg vr wkdw doo wudqvodwlrqdo +u, dqg urwdwlrqdo +�, ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp+fkrvhq dw udqgrp, duh frqvlghuhg1 Wklv h{suhvvlrq lv wkhq lqwhjudwhg ryhu wkhhqwluh xqlw fhoo ^54` dqg lv/ lq sudfwlfh/ dssur{lpdwhg e| d �qlwh vxp zlwk Q

whupv=

V � �&A

]

Se,,

gu

]_XHZ2

h{s��

LEocX�&A

�@ TSe,,

&A��

[�

h{s��

LEo�cX��&A

�= +4615,

Zh ghqrwh lq Ht1 4615 wkh yroxph ri wkh xqlw fhoo e| YSe,, dqg wkh qxpehu ridgmxvwdeoh vwhsv lq wkh vlpxodwlrq +vhohfwhg wr rewdlq d zhoo0frqyhujhg hvwlpdwh riV, e|Q 1 Vroxelolw| lv uhwxuqhg iurp Ht1 4615 lq xqlwv riprohfxohv 2xqlw fhoo 2nSd/hdvlo| frqyhuwleoh lq dq| rwkhu ghvluhg xqlwv1 Wkh prgxoh uhtxluhv dv lqsxw wkh

4616 Vroxelolw| fdofxodwlrqv 556

Wdeoh 4615= �L4T@h�tL? Lu tL*�M�*�|) �@*�it U@*U�*@|i_ �? |�i Thiti?| t|�_) uLh |�L t)t|i4tG

?�|hL}i? @?_ U@hML? _�L �_i �? TL*)ThLT)*i?i E�� |� *�|ih@|�hi _@|@� A�i �?Uih|@�?|�it

Lu |�i tL*�M�*�|) �@*�it U@*U�*@|i_ �? |�i Thiti?| t|�_) @U|�@**) hiThiti?| ��U|�@|�L?t _�i |L

ULhhitTL?_�?} |�ih4@* ��U|�@|�L?t Lu |�i TL*)4ih t|h�U|�hi�

V|vwhp Uhihuhqfh W V

N fp� nj3�PSd3�

SS.Q2 Gxuloo)Julvnh| ^69` 79416 +4633 443,Vdwr hw do1 ^44;` 79416 <:7Vdwr hw do1 ^44;` 78615 <54suhvhqw zrun 78615 +<33 833,

SS.FR2 Gxuloo)Julvnh| ^69` 79416 +5583 4;3,Vdwr hw do1 ^44;` 79416 5939Vdwr hw do1 ^44;` 78615 5:8<suhvhqw zrun 78615 +5433 4783,

prgho ri wkh sro|phu vdpsoh wrjhwkhu zlwk lwv wudmhfwru| �oh dv jhqhudwhg iurpPG +vhfwlrq 4615, dqg d prgho ri wkh vruedwh prohfxoh1 Lw lv lpsruwdqw wr qrwhwkdw wkh vroxelolw| lv fdofxodwhg dw wkh vdph whpshudwxuh dw zklfk wkh PG uxqwrrn sodfh1 Wr fdofxodwh wkh vroxelolw| dw d gl�huhqw whpshudwxuh/ d PG uxq dwwkh dssursuldwh whpshudwxuh kdv wr eh frqgxfwhg1 Vhyhudo ydoxhv duh fdofxodwhgiru hdfk vhohfwhg iudph ri wkh wudmhfwru| �oh1 Wr uhgxfh wkh frpsxwdwlrq wlph/ wkhwudmhfwru| zdv pruh vsduvho| vdpsohg +hyhu| 8 sv,1 Wr dyrlg lqlwldo �xfwxdwlrqv/wkh �qdo ydoxh ri wkh vroxelolw| lv fdofxodwhg dv dyhudjh ri wkh ydoxhv ryhu wkh 480533sv lqwhuydo1 Wkh vwdqgdug ghyldwlrq lq wklv dyhudjlqj uhsuhvhqwv �xfwxdwlrqvri wkh vroxelolw| ydoxh gxh wr wkh wkhupdo �xfwxdwlrqv ri wkh sro|phu gxulqj wkhPG uxq1

Dffxudwh h{shulphqwdo ydoxhv iru vroxelolwlhv lq sro|phulf v|vwhpv duh txlwhuduh lq olwhudwxuh1 Vroxelolw| fdofxodwlrqv zlwk wkh suhvhqw phwkrg +Ht1 4615, zhuhfrpsduhg +Wdeoh 4615, iru wzr v|vwhpv= qlwurjhq +Q2, dqg fduerq glr{lgh +FR2,lq sro|surs|ohqh/ SS1 Wkh sro|surs|ohqh vdpsoh zdv exlow dffruglqj wr wkh vdphsurfhgxuh ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq 46151 Iru frpsdulvrq zlwk olwhudwxuh ydoxhv/ vrox0elolwlhv/ V� / fdofxodwhg lq wkh suhvhqw vwxg| zhuh wudqviruphg lq fp� nj3�PSd3�1

Wkh uhvxowv ri rxu fdofxodwlrqv vwloo frqwdlq d odujh xqfhuwdlqw| ri derxw 93(1Wklv xqfhuwdlqw| lv gxh wr wkh idfw wkdw wkh vroxelolw| zdv fdofxodwhg dv dyhu0djh ryhu vhyhudo wudmhfwru| iudphv wkxv/ ehlqj vxemhfw wr wkhuprg|qdplf �xf0wxdwlrqv1 Zlwklq wklv odujh xqfhuwdlqw| rxu fdofxodwlrqv duh frqvlvwhqw zlwk wkh


h{shulphqwdo uhvxowv ri Gxuloo)Julvnh| ^69` dqg wkh frpsxwdwlrqdo uhvxowv e|Vdwr hw do1 ^44;`1 Wklv frqvlvwhqf| jlyhv vrph frq�ghqfh lq wkh lqwhjulw| ri wkhfdofxodwlrqv1

��e #�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?|t

Hlqvwhlq ^6<` vkrzhg iru wkuhh0glphqvlrqdo v|vwhpv wkdw/ iru orqj wlphv/ wkh phdq0vtxduh glvsodfhphqw ri wkh gl�xvlqj sduwlfoh lv sursruwlrqdo wr wkh wlph=

? U2 A@ 9Gw dv w$4> +4616,

zkhuh G lv wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw dqg ?A phdqv dyhudjh ryhu lqlwldo frqglwlrqv1Prohfxodu g|qdplfv +PG, vlpxodwlrqv doorz wkh fdofxodwlrq ri ? U2 A dv d

ixqfwlrq ri w1 Xqiruwxqdwho| wkh wlph uhtxluhg wr dfklhyh wkh gl�xvlyh uhjlph+olqhdu uhodwlrq ehwzhhq ? U2 A dqg w, udqjhv iurp qdqrvhfrqgv wr plfurvhfrqgvru hyhq vhfrqgv1 Gxh wr vxfk orqj wlphv vwdqgdugPG whfkqltxhv duh qrw vxlwdeohiru wkh vwxg| ri gl�xvlrq1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ Prqwh Fduor whfkqltxhv doorzd pruh h�flhqw vdpsolqj ri wkh skdvh vsdfh ri d jlyhq v|vwhp/ exw odfnv wkhlqirupdwlrq rq dq dvvrfldwhg wlph vfdoh1 D frpelqdwlrq ri wkh wzr whfkqltxhvvhhphg wr eh dq rswlpxp vroxwlrq iru wkh fdofxodwlrq ri wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw^8<`1

Wr vwxg| jdv gl�xvlrq rqh kdv �uvw wr dqdo|vh wkh yrlg glvwulexwlrq dqg pru0skrorj| lq wkh sro|phuv1 Yrlgv duh uhjlrqv zlwk orzhu orfdo ghqvlw| dqg/ frqvh0txhqwo|/ ehwwhu dffrpprgdwh wkh gl�xvlqj prohfxoh1 Ilj1 < +frorxu sodwh vhfwlrq,vkrzv wkh wkuhh0glphqvlrqdo vwuxfwxuh ri d w|slfdo yrlg/ fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkhodujhvw yrlg irxqg lq d sro|phu +SHW, vdpsoh1 Iurp wklv �jxuh rqh fdq vhh wkdwwkh yrlg frqvlvwv ri uhodwlyho| odujh wkuhh0glphqvlrqdo uhjlrqv/ zklfk zloo eh uh0ihuuhg wr dv iholflwrqv/ vhsdudwhg e| qduurz fkdqqhov1 D suhylrxv dwrplvwlf vwxg|vkrzhg vlplodu vwuxfwxuhv ^8<`1 Wkh dxwkruv irxqg wkdw wkh gl�xvlqj prohfxohvshqgv vljql�fdqw wlph lq hdfk iholflwrq1 Wkh gl�xvlqj surfhvv lv frqvhtxhqwo|ghvfulehg dv mxpsv ehwzhhq iholflwrqv wkurxjk wkh fkdqqhov1 Wkh yrlg dqdo|vlv lvixuwkhu xvhg lq Prqwh Fduor vlpxodwlrqv wkdw/ lq frpelqdwlrq zlwk wkh wlph vfdohghwhuplqhg wkurxjk wkh PG uhvxowv/ zloo doorz wkh fdofxodwlrq ri wkh gl�xvlrqfrh�flhqw1

E| glylglqj wkh vsdfh frqwdlqlqj wkh sro|phu zlwk d fxelf julg ri vsdflqjU} +3135qp, dqg pdunlqj wkh julg srlqwv wkdw duh forvhu wr hdfk sro|phu dwrp l

wkdq vrph udglxv U�/ frqqhfwhg yrlgv fdq eh gh�qhg1 Zh gh�qh U� dv wkh dyhudjhehwzhhq wkh Ydq ghu Zddov udglxv ri wkh dwrp l dqg wkh sureh udglxv UR w|slfdoo|

4617 Gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv 558

wdnhq wr eh 315 qp1 Li wkhuh lv d srvvlelolw| wr jr iurp dq hpsw| vlwh wr dqrwkhuyld qhduhvw0qhljkerxu mxpsv/ wkh wzr vlwhv duh wdnhq wr ehorqj wr wkh vdph mrlqhgfoxvwhuv ri hpsw| vlwhv1 D qxpehu ri yrlgv ri ydulrxv vl}hv zloo eh rewdlqhg iruhdfk sro|phu1 Wkh odujhvw yrlg iurp dq| sro|phulf frq�jxudwlrq lv wkh prvwlpsruwdqw iru wkh sxusrvh ri gl�xvlrq1 Julg srlqwv ehorqjlqj wr iholflwrqv dqgfkdqqhov duh wkhq lghqwl�hg e| fdofxodwlqj zklfk lv wkh forvhvw pdunhg hpsw| vlwhlq hdfk ri wkh 59 gluhfwlrqv gh�qhg e| �uvw/ vhfrqg dqg wklug qhduhvw qhljkerxuv+lq d vlpsoh fxelf odwwlfh, ri wkh vlwh1 D jlyhq julg srlqw ehorqjv wr d iholflwrq liwkhuh duh qr pdunhg julg srlqwv zlwklq d glvwdqfh ri 5�UR iurp lw lq dq| gluhfwlrq1Srlqwv ehorqjlqj wr qduurz fkdqqho zloo kdyh �oohg vlwhv dw vkruw glvwdqfhv irupdq| gluhfwlrqv exw iru rqh ru pruh gluhfwlrqv wkh| zloo kdyh vrph hpsw| vlwhv1

Iru PF vlpxodwlrqv ri d jdv prohfxoh sdvvlqj wkurxjk wkh odujhvw yrlg ri dsro|phu/ zh qhhg wr nqrz wkh dvvrfldwhg hqhuj| odqgvfdsh l1h1/ wkh vhw ri hqhujlhvH+l> m> n, dvvrfldwhg zlwk srvlwlrqlqj wkh prohfxoh lq hdfk vlwh +l> m> n,1 Wkhvhhqhujlhv H+l> m> n, duh rewdlqhg e| sodflqj wkh vroxwh +jdv, prohfxoh dw wkh fru0uhvsrqglqj vlwh dqg plqlplvh wkh hqhuj|/ �{lqj wkh srvlwlrq ri rqh dwrp ri wkhgl�xvlqj jdv1 Vlwhv qrw ehorqjlqj wr wkh odujhvw yrlg zloo h{klelw yhu| kljk hqhuj|/wkxv/ wkh| zloo eh lqdffhvvleoh wr wkh gl�xvlqj prohfxoh1 Rqfh H+l> m> n, lv nqrzq/d Prqwh Fduor vlpxodwlrq lv frqgxfwhg xvlqj wkh Phwursrolv dojrulwkp ^:<`1 Dvdouhdg| phqwlrqhg/ g|qdplfdo h�hfwv dqg wkhupdo �xfwxdwlrqv ri wkh sro|phuduh yhu| lpsruwdqw wr eh lqfoxghg zkhq vwxg|lqj gl�xvlrq1 Wklv phdqv wkdw wkhhqhuj| odqgvfdsh lv qrw rqo| srvlwlrq +vlwh, ghshqghqw exw dovr ydulhv lq wlph/H+l> m> n> w,1 Wkh gudzedfn lq fdofxodwlqj d wlph0ghshqghqw hqhuj| odqgvfdsh lvwkh lpphqvh qxpehu ri uhtxluhg hqhuj| dqg irufh hydoxdwlrqv/ uhvxowlqj lq d wlph0frqvxplqj surfhgxuh1 Wkh vroxwlrq lv wr uhfrqvwuxfw wkh hqhuj| odqgvfdsh iru dq|yrlg/ jlyhq H+l> m> n, iru rqh frq�jxudwlrq1 Li/ iru h{dpsoh/ wkh hqhuj| odqgvfdshH+l> m> n, lv fdofxodwhg rqo| iru d vxevhw ri vlwhv lq wkh odujhvw yrlg zlwk l> m> n pxo0wlsohv ri 7/ wkh hqhujlhv ri wkh uhpdlqlqj vlwhv fdq eh rewdlqhg e| dyhudjlqj +zlwkzhljkwv lqyhuvho| sursruwlrqdo wr wkh vhsdudwlqj glvwdqfh, ryhu wkh qhljkerxulqjvlwhv iru zklfk wkh dwrplvwlf fdofxodwlrq zhuh fduulhg rxw1

Wkh julg xvhg iru wkh yrlg dqdo|vlv lv dovr wkh edvh ri wkh Prqwh Fduor +PF,vlpxodwlrq wr fdofxodwh wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw1 Dv h{sodlqhg deryh/ wkh hqhuj|dvvrfldwhg zlwk srvlwlrqlqj d jlyhq prohfxoh lq hdfk julg srlqw fdq eh fdofxodwhg1Qh{w/ d vwdqgdugPF vlpxodwlrq ohwv wkh jdv prohfxoh krs iurp rqh vlwh wr dqrwkhulq wkh hqhuj| odqgvfdsh1 Wkh dgydqwdjh ri wklv phwkrg lv wkdw wkh sro|phu dwrpvduh qr orqjhu lqyroyhg lq wkh vlpxodwlrqv dv doo wkh lqirupdwlrq derxw wkh sro|phulv frqwdlqhg lq wkh hqhuj| odqgvfdsh1


Wr lqwurgxfh wlph lq wkh PF vlpxodwlrqv/ wkh wlph hyroxwlrq ri wkh phdqvtxduh glvsodfhphqw ? U2 A rewdlqhg iurp PF vlpxodwlrq zloo eh frpsduhgzlwk wkh rqh rewdlqhg iurp PG vlpxodwlrqv1 Wr hdfkPF vwhs pdwfklqj wkh PGuhvxowv d wlph vwhs zloo eh dvvljqhg ^8<`1 Lw zdv vkrzq wkdw wr pdwfk wkh wlphvwhsv/ PG uxqv ri derxw 533 sv suryhg wr eh vx�flhqw iru wklv sxusrvh/ dowkrxjklqvx�flhqwo| orqj wr gluhfwo| fdofxodwh wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw iurp Ht1 46161

Wdeoh 4616 vkrzv gl�xvlrq frqvwdqwv iru K2/ R2 dqg K2R lq SS rewdlqhg lqwkh suhvhqw vwxg| wrjhwkhu zlwk uhvxowv ri rwkhuPG vlpxodwlrqv dqg h{shulphqwv1Lq jhqhudo/ uhvxowv rewdlqhg lq wkh suhvhqw zrun frpsduh zhoo zlwk rwkhu PGfdofxodwlrqv1 Krzhyhu/ wkh h{shulphqwdo ydoxhv duh derxw dq rughu ri pdjqlwxghvpdoohu + ^;:`/ ^63`,1 Wklv qrwlfhdeoh glvfuhsdqf| lv prvw suredeo| gxh wr wkhidfw wkdw lq wkh vlpxodwlrqv dqg h{shulphqwv sro|phuv zlwk gl�huhqw wdfwlflw|e

dqg fu|vwdoolqlw| zhuh xvhg1 Iru wkh suhvhqw vwxg| d v|qglrwdfwlf dpruskrxv SSvdpsoh zdv frqvwuxfwhg zkloh iru zdwhu dqg k|gurjhq gl�xvlrq h{shulphqwv/ dqlvrwdfwlf SS phpeudqh/ zlwk 9;( fu|vwdoolqlw| dqg dq dwdfwlf SS phpeudqh zhuhxvhg/ uhvshfwlyho|1

Wdeoh 4616= #�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?|t Lu �@h�L�t ��_�TL*)4ih t)t|i4t @t U@*U�*@|i_ �? |�i Thiti?|

t|�_)c �? L|�ih t�4�*@h t�4�*@|�L?t @?_ _i|ih4�?i_ i Tih�4i?|@**)�

V|vwhp Uhihuhqfh G

fp2 v3�

SS.K2R P|huv hw do1 ^;:` 4=8 � 433.

PG vlpxodwlrq ^77` 3=:� : � 433S

suhvhqw zrun 9 � 433S

SS.R2 PG vlpxodwlrq ^;8` 7 � 433S

suhvhqw zrun 8 � 433S

SS.K2 PG vlpxodwlrq ^;8` 7 � 433D

suhvhqw zrun 6 � 433D

Fudqn)Sdun ^63` 8=: � 433S

eA@U|�U�|) @TT*�it |L TL*)4iht ��|� L?i ?L?��)_hL}i? t�Mt|�|�|i E_i?L|i_ M) +� @||@U�i_ |L|�i U@hML? U�@�? uLh i@U� 4L?L4ih �?�|� A@U|�U�|) �@t |L _L ��|� ��U� t�_i Lu |�i U�@�? |�i +}hL�T �t T*@Ui_� Wu @** Lu |�i + }hL�Tt *�?i �T L? |�i t@4i t�_i �i t@) |�i t|h�U|�hi �t �tL|@U|�U�6Lh |�i + }hL�Tt @*|ih?@|�?} uhL4 t�_i |L t�_i @ t)?_�L|@U|�U t|h�U|�hi �t LM|@�?i_� +@?_L4TLt�|�L?i_ + }hL�Tt _i�?i @? @|@U|�U TL*)4ih�

4618 Dvvhvvphqw 55:

��D �ttitt4i?|

Iru prvw vwxglhv lqyroylqj udgrq gl�xvlrq ru shuphdwlrq wkurxjk sro|phulf php0eudqhv/ wkh vroxelolw| lv frqvlghuhg wr reh| Khqu|*v odz +vhh vhfwlrq 816,1 Dverwk gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv dqg shuphdelolwlhv vkrzq lq Wdeoh 818 duh h{suhvvhg lqfp2 v3�/ Ht1 816 uhtxluhv iru wkh vroxelolw| wr eh glphqvlrqohvv1 Wkh glphqvlrqohvvvroxelolw|/ V@/ lv gh�qhg iurp wkh uhodwlrq ehwzhhq wkh frqfhqwudwlrq ri wkh jdvmxvw rxwvlgh +f}, dqg mxvw zlwklq wkh sro|phulf phpeudqh +fR,=

f} @ V@fR> +4617,

zkhuh erwk frqfhqwudwlrqv kdyh lghqwlfdo xqlwv1 Wkh frqfhqwudwlrq ri jdv lq wkhjdv skdvh/ f}/ dqg wkh sduwldo suhvvxuh ri wkh jdv deryh wkh vroxwlrq/ s/ duh uhodwhge| wkh lghdo jdv odz=

s @ f}UW> +4618,

zlwk U +Mpro3�N3�, wkh jdv frqvwdqw dqg W +N, wkh whpshudwxuh ri wkh v|vwhpdqg wkh xqlwv ri wkh frqfhqwudwlrq dqg suhvvxuh duh prop3� dqg Sd/ uhvshfwlyho|1

E| xvlqj Ht1 4617 dqg Ht1 4618/ wkh vroxelolw| dv gh�qhg lq Khqu|*v odz+Ht1 4614, fdq eh pdgh glphqvlrqohvv yld=

V@ @�

7-A> +4619,

li V kdv xqlwv ri prop3� Sd/ U ri Mpro3�N3� dqg W ri N1

Wdeoh 4617= 5L*�M�*�|) U@*U�*@|�L?t uLh h@_L? �? TL*)ThLT)*i?ic �� @?_ TL*)i|�)*i?i|ihiT�|@�

*@|ic �,A @| 2b� k� A�i �?Uih|@�?|�it �? |�i �@*�i Lu tL*�M�*�|) hiThiti?| |�ih4@* ��U|�@|�L?t�

V|vwhp V V@

fp� nj3�PSd3� 0SS.Uq 5333 6333 3=9 3=;SHW.Uq 4833 6333 3=8 3=<

Vroxelolwlhv ri udgrq lq sro|surs|ohqh +SS, dqg sro|hwk|ohqhwhuhskwdodwh +SHW,dw d whpshudwxuh ri 5<6 Nzhuh fdofxodwhg dffruglqj wr wkh phwkrgrorj| ghvfulehglq vhfwlrq 46161 Uhvxowv duh vxppdulvhg lq Wdeoh 46171 Dffruglqj wr wkhvh ydoxhv/udgrq lv htxdoo| vroxeoh lq SS dqg SHW1 Wkh odujh xqfhuwdlqwlhv lq wkh vroxelo0lw| fdofxodwlrqv duh fdxvhg e| wkhuprg|qdplf �xfwxdwlrqv= gxulqj wkh prohfxodu

55; Prohfxodu prghoolqj ri sro|phulf phpeudqhv

g|qdplf uxq fkdqjhv lq wkh frqirupdwlrq ri wkh sro|phu rffxu ohdglqj wr d uh0glvwulexwlrq ri wkh rffxsldeoh yroxph wkxv ri wkh fdofxodwhg jdv vroxelolw|1

Ydq Nuhyhohq ^48<` irxqg wkdw wkh vroxelolw| ri d jdv lv d ixqfwlrq ri lwvfulwlfdo whpshudwxuh dqg2ru erlolqj srlqw dqg wkh jodvv0wudqvlwlrq whpshudwxuhdqg wkh ghjuhh ri fu|vwdoolqlw| ri sro|phuvD1 Wr fdofxodwh wkh vroxelolw| ri djdv dw d fhuwdlq whpshudwxuh/ W+N,/ deryh wkh jodvv0wudqvlwlrq whpshudwxuh riwkh sro|phu/ W}+N,/ iru d uhihuhqfh whpshudwxuh ri wkh v|vwhp Wo +@5<;N,/ dqDuukhqlxv w|sh ri htxdwlrq lv hpsor|hg=

V+W , @ Vf h{sk{Mo

-

��Ao�

�A

�l> +461:,

zlwk U wkh xqlyhuvdo jdv frqvwdqw +;1648 Mpro3�N3�,1 Vf lv fdofxodwhg iurpd olqhdu uhodwlrqvkls zlwk wkh fulwlfdo whpshudwxuh ri wkh jdv/ WSo+N, dqg wkhhqwkdos| fruuhvsrqglqj wr d uxeehu| vwdwh/ �Ko +Mpro3�,/ iurp dq hpslulfdouhodwlrq lq zklfk Vf lv frqvlghuhg1 Erwk vroxelolwlhv/ V dqg Vf duh h{suhvvhglq xqlwv ri fp� fp3� dwp3�1 Iru vhpl0fu|vwdoolqh sro|phuv fruuhfwlrqv iru wkhghjuhh ri fu|vwdoolqlw| kdyh wr eh frqvlghuhg1 Wr hvwlpdwh vroxelolwlhv ehorz W}/vrph fruuhfwlrq kdyh wr eh dssolhg wr wkh hqwkdos| ^48<`1 Iru udgrq/ wkh fulwlfdowhpshudwxuh lv 6::N dqg wkh jodvv0wudqvlwlrq whpshudwxuhv iru SHW dqg SS duh686N dqg 5:3N/ uhvshfwlyho|/ phdqlqj wkdw/ dw urrp whpshudwxuh +5<6N,/ SSlv d uxeehu zkloh SHW lv d jodvv1

Wkxv/ dffruglqj wr Ht1 461:/ wkh vroxelolwlhv ri udgrq lq wkh wzr v|vwhpv +dwW @ 5<6N, duh 83 fp� fp3� dwp3� +Uq lq SHW, dqg 8=79 fp� fp3� dwp3� +Uqlq SS,1 Wkhvh ydoxhv duh htxlydohqw wr dglphqvlrqdo vroxelolwlhv ri 3135 iru SHWdqg ri 314; iru SS1 Dv SHW lv d jodvv dw urrp whpshudwxuh +whpshudwxuh dw zklfkwkh vroxelolw| lv hvwlpdwhg,/ wkh sro|phu fkdlqv duh ohvv �h{leoh wkdq lq d uxeehuwkxv/ wkh dprxqw ri rffxsldeoh yroxph lv h{shfwhg wr eh lq jhqhudo vpdoohu1 Dvvroxelolw| lv gluhfwo| uhodwhg wr wkh rffxsldeoh yroxph/ lwv ydoxh lq SHW vkrxogeh vpdoohu wkdq lq SS1 Wkh ydoxhv fdofxodwhg lq wkh suhvhqw vwxg| +Wdeoh 4617,duh frqvlvwhqw/ zlwklq wkh odujh xqfhuwdlqwlhv/ zlwk uhvxowv rewdlqhg e| dsso|lqjYdq Nuhyhohq*v irupxodv1 Dv

Iru wkh vdph sro|phulf v|vwhpv/ SS dqg SHW/ udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwvzhuh dovr fdofxodwhg iroorzlqj wkh vwhsv ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq 46171 Wkh uhvxowhgydoxhv duh olvwhg lq Wdeoh 46181 Iru frpsdulvrq/ udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv zhuhdovr fdofxodwhg iurp wkh uhodwlrqv sursrvhg e| Ydq Nuhyhohq ^48<`1 Li gl�xvlrq

D6hL4 |�i TL�?| Lu ��i� Lu ��tULi*@t|�U�|) @? @4LhT�L�t TL*)4ih ��** Mi �? @ }*@tt) t|@|i

Mi*L� |�i }*@tt�|h@?t�|�L? |i4Tih@|�hic A}c @?_ �? @ h�MMih) t|@|i @ML�i |��t |i4Tih@|�hi� �|i�i? ��}�ih |i4Tih@|�hit |�i TL*)4ih MiUL4it @ *�^��_�

4618 Dvvhvvphqw 55<

ri jdvhv lq sro|phuv lv uhjdughg dv d wkhupdoo| dfwlydwhg surfhvv/ Ydq Nuhyh0ohq vwdwhv wkdw dq Duukhqlxv w|sh ri htxdwlrq fdq eh hpsor|hg wr hvwlpdwh wkhgl�xvlrq frh�flhqw1 Li H_ lv wkh dfwlydwlrq hqhuj| qhhghg wr hqdeoh wkh gl�xv0lqj prohfxoh wr h�hfwxdwh d mxps dqg W wkh whpshudwxuh dw zklfk wkh gl�xvlrqfrh�flhqw lv hvwlpdwhg zh kdyh wkdw=

�f orjG @ � ._

2��-

��A�

�X

�� 7= +461;,

zkhuh � lv d uhihuhqfh whpshudwxuh wkdw kdv ydoxhv ri 7<8N dqg 878N iru W A W}dqg W ? W}/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Wkh odujhu wkh gl�xvlqj prohfxoh/ wkh kljkhu wkhdfwlydwlrq hqhuj| dqg wkh vpdoohu wkh gl�xvlylw| zloo eh1

Wdeoh 4618= #�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?|t uLh h@_L? �? TL*)ThLT)*i?ic �� @?_ TL*)i|�)*i?i|ihiT�|@*@|ic

�,A�V|vwhp Uhihuhqfh G

fp2 v3�

SS.Uq suhvhqw vwxg| +5=494 3=336, � 433D

Ydq Nuhyhohq ^48<` 4 � 433S

SHW.Uq suhvhqw vwxg| +7=695 3=33<, � 433S

h{shulphqw ^84` +5=9 4=3, � 433b

Ydq Nuhyhohq ^48<` 4=48 � 433S

D judsklfdo ghshqghqfh ri wkh dfwlydwlrq hqhuj| ri gl�xvlrq/ vl}h ri gl�xv0lqj prohfxohv dqg jodvv wudqvlwlrq whpshudwxuh ri wkh sro|phu vkrzv wkdw wkhdfwlydwlrq hqhuj| ri gl�xvlrq lq wkh jodvv vwdwh lv orzhu wkdq wkdw lq wkh uxe0ehu vwdwh ^48<`1 Dfwxdoo| iurp wklv ghshqghqfh/ e| nqrzlqj wkh gldphwhu ri wkhgl�xvlqj prohfxoh dqg wkh jodvv wudqvlwlrq whpshudwxuh/ dq hvwlpdwh iru wkh dfwl0ydwlrq hqhuj| fdq eh rewdlqhg iru d ihz sro|phuv ri lqwhuhvw1 Iru wkh dwdfwlf SSdqg dpruskrxv SHW/ wkh ydoxhv ri wkh dfwlydwlrq hqhujlhv duh 6919 nMpro3� dqg5717 nMpro3�/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw fdofxodwhg dffruglqjwr Ht1 461; duh dovr olvwhg lq Wdeoh 46181

Wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw ri udgrq frpsduhg wr ydoxhv fdofxodwhg iru wkh gl�x0vlrq frh�flhqwv ri rwkhu jdvhv2�xlgv lq SS +Wdeoh 4616, srlqwv rxw wr d vlplodulw|lq wkh gl�xvlrq surfhvv ri udgrq zlwk k|gurjhq1 Dv wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw lvghwhuplqhg e| wkh lqwhudfwlrq ri wkh gl�xvlqj dwrp2prohfxoh zlwk wkh vwuxfwxuhri phglxp ^63`/ wklv lv d udwkhu xqqdwxudo uhvxow1 Dffruglqj wr Ht1 718 wkh gl�x0vlrq surfhvv ri udgrq lv 583 wlphv vorzhu wkdq wkdw ri k|gurjhq1 Wkh glvfuhsdqf|ehwzhhq wkh ydoxh fdofxodwhg iurp PG vlpxodwlrqv dqg wkh rqh hvwlpdwh iurp


Ydq Nuhyhohq htxdwlrqv frxog ruljlqdwh iurp wkh gl�huhqw vwuxfwxuh ri wkh SSvdpsohv= dpruskrxv dqg uxeehu +dwdfwlf,/ uhvshfwlyho|/ dqg iurp wkh idfw wkdwHt1 461; dfwxdoo| uhsuhvhqwv dq ryhuvlpsol�hg ghvfulswlrq ri wkh gl�xvlrq surfhvv1

Iru SHW wkh ydoxhv rewdlqhg lq wkh suhvhqw vwxg| dqg fdofxodwhg iurp YdqNuhyhohq*v htxdwlrqv ^48<` djuhh zhoo1 Lq erwk fdvhv/ dq dpruskrxv SHW vdpsohzdv frqvlghuhg1 Wkh wkuhh rughuv ri pdjqlwxgh gl�huhqfh ehwzhhq wkh vlpxodwlrqdqg h{shulphqw lv prvw olnho| fdxvhg e| wkh idfw wkdw lq wkh h{shulphqwdo vwxg|wkh shuphdelolw| dqg qrw wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw zdv gluhfwo| phdvxuhg1 Dqhtxdolw| ri wkh wzr frh�flhqwv lv dvvxphg e| wkh dxwkruv/ frqvlghulqj d ydoxh rixqlw| iru wkh vroxelolw| ri udgrq ^84`1 Pruhryhu/ vlplodu h{shulphqwdo whfkqltxhvsrlqw rxw wkdw xqfhuwdlqwlhv lq shuphdelolw|0frh�flhqw ghwhuplqdwlrqv pd| rulj0lqdwh iurp dq lqdffxudwh ghwhuplqdwlrq ri wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh sro|phulf php0eudqh ^55`1 Wkh ydoxhv ri shuphdelolw| dv rewdlqhg e| gl�huhqw vwxglhv zhuh irxqgdfwxdoo| wr eh ghshqghqw rq wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh xvhg phpeudqh1 Iru h{dpsoh/Odehg ^99` irxqg dq lqfuhdvh ri 53( ri wkh shuphdelolw| zlwk dq lqfuhdvh ri 9:(lq wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh irlo +SS lq wklv fdvh, dv phdvxuhg dw 5<6N +Wdeoh 818,1

Lq vrph h{shulphqwdo ghwhuplqdwlrqv shuphdelolwlhv duh phdvxuhg rq d sro|0phulf phpeudqh wkdw vhsdudwhv dlu dqg zdwhu skdvhv ^99`1 Wkxv/ prvw suredeo|zdwhu prohfxohv zhuh suhvhqw lq wkh sro|phulf phpeudqh/ klqghulqj udgrq gl�x0vlrq ^48<`1 Krzhyhu/ iru wkh fdvh ri k|gurskrelf sro|phulf phpeudqhv +olnh SSS

dqg SHW, wkh h�hfw gxh wr wkh suhvhqfh ri zdwhu lv h{shfwhg wr eh vpdoo1

Odvw exw qrw ohdvw/ rqh ri wkh uhdvrqv zk| wkh vlpxodwlrqv jlyh kljkhu ydoxhvri wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv wkdq wkh h{shulphqwv frxog eh uhodwhg wr wkh vhohfwhgydoxh iru wkh sureh udglxv +315 qp,1 Wklv udglxv/ dyhudjhg zlwk wkh ydq ghu Zddovudglxv. ri udgrq +3157qp,/ uhvxowv lq d ydoxh ri 3155qp iru U�1 Zlwk wklv odwwhuudglxv/ odujhu yrlg uhjlrqv wkdq dfwxdoo| frqwulexwh wr gl�xvlrq pljkw kdyh ehhqvlpxodwhg1

��S �L?U*�t�L?t

Wkh phwkrg ghvfulehg lq wklv fkdswhu suhvhqwv d qhz phwkrgrorj| wr prghowudqvsruw surshuwlhv ri jdvhv wkurxjk sro|phulf phpeudqhv xvlqj Prohfxodu G|0

SA�i �� 4i4Mh@?i �44ihti_ �? �@|ih uLh 2e �L�ht �@_ @ �@|ih @MtLhT|�L? u@U|Lh Lu *itt|�@? f�f�I dSSo�

.V@? _ih @@*t h@_�� @hi �t�@**) it|@M*�t�i_ uhL4 UL?|@U| _�t|@?Uit Mi|�ii? ?L?�ML?_�?}@|L4t �? |L�U��?} 4L*iU�*it Lh @|L4tc uhL4 ?i�}�ML�h�?i�}�ML�h �?|ih@U|�L?t �? Uh)t|@*t LhuhL4 }@t Uh�|�U@* �L*�4it�


qdplfv +zlwk de0lqlwlr fdofxodwhg irufh0�hog sdudphwhuv, dqg Prqwh0Fduor whfk0qltxhv1 Surshuo| ydolgdwhg/ wklv whfkqltxh surylghv qrw rqo| d xvhixo wrro irusuhglfwlqj surshuwlhv ri lqwhuhvw ri h{lvwlqj sro|phulf phpeudqhv exw dovr r�huvwkh rssruwxqlw| iru ghyhorsphqw dqg ghvljq ri qhz �opv1

Dq lqlwldo dvvhvvphqw ri wkh phwkrg zdv fduulhg rxw e| hydoxdwlqj wkh udgrq0shuphdelolwlhv ri sro|surs|ohqh dqg sro|hwk|ohqhwhuhskwkdodwh1 Vr idu/ wkhvh �uvwuhvxowv duh qrw lq yhu| jrrg djuhhphqw zlwk wkh ihz dydlodeoh olwhudwxuh gdwd1D srvvleoh dujxphqw lv wkdw lq wkh vlpxodwlrqv vlpsoh +dpruskrxv, sro|phulfv|vwhpv zhuh xvhg zkloh wkh olwhudwxuh gdwd zhuh ghwhuplqhg iru phpeudqhv zlwkd fhuwdlq ghjuhh ri fu|vwdoolqlw|1 Dovr d phwkrg wkdw zrxog gluhfwo| fdofxodwhshuphdelolwlhv +dqg qrw dv d surgxfw ri vroxelolw| dqg gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw, prvwsuredeo| zrxog ohdg wr lpsuryhg uhvxowv1

Vxfk d phvr0vfdoh phwkrg zrxog pdnh xvh ri d prgho er{ rq zklfk rqh0vlgh d suhvvxuh S� lv dssolhg/ odujhu wkdq wkh suhvvxuh S2 rq wkh rwkhu vlgh1Prohfxohv cfuhdwhg* dw wkh kljk0suhvvxuh vlgh duh doorzhg wr pryh wkurxjk wkher{ +zkhuh wkh sro|phu pdwul{ lv dfwxdoo| uhsodfhg e| d udqgrp glvwulexwlrq riqrw0frqqhfwhg iholflwrqv zlwk d nqrzq fkdudfwhulvwlf gl�xvlrq ohqjwk, dqg/ zkhqwkh prohfxohv uhdfk wkh orz0suhvvxuh vlgh/ duh dxwrpdwlfdoo| frxqwhg dqg ghohwhg1Lq vxfk d prgho wkh ixqgdphqwdo ihdwxuhv ri wkh sro|phu +iholflwrqv dqg fkdqqhov,0rewdlqhg iurp dwrplvwlf vfdoh fdofxodwlrqv0 zrxog eh suhvhuyhg wrjhwkhu zlwk wkhvroxwh g|qdplfv +uhvlghqfh wlphv,/ dv zhoo dv ckrsslqj* frqvwudlqwv +iru fu|vwdoolqhgrpdlqv/ h{irooldwhg fod|v/ hwf1,1 Wkh fkdudfwhulvwlf gl�xvlrq ohqjwk dqg wkh pru0skrorj| zloo ghshqg rq wkh sro|phu0vroxwh v|vwhp1 Orfdwlrq dqg vl}h0glvwulexwlrqri wkh iholflwrqv fdq eh hdvlo| rewdlqhg iurp dwrplvwlf vlpxodwlrqv ri wkh sro|phupdwul{1 Dovr wkhlu wlph0hyroxwlrq frxog eh h{wudfwhg iurp PG wudmhfwrulhv1 Zhkdyh ohduqhg +vhfwlrq 4617, wkdw wkh wlph vshqw e| d prohfxoh lq d fkdqqho lvyhu| vpdoo frpsduhg wr lwv colih wlph* lqvlgh d iholflwrq1 Wkxv/ wr ehwwhu ghvfulehgl�xvlrq wkh pryhphqw ri wkh prohfxoh ehwzhhq gl�huhqw iholflwrqv frxog eh gh0vfulehg e| d Eurzqldq w|sh ri prwlrq xvlqj d fkdudfwhulvwlf cmxps iuhtxhqf|*1Wklv dssurdfk zrxog dovr ohdyh rxw ghwdlohg lqirupdwlrq rq wkh frqqhfwlylw| riwkh iholflwrqv +fkdqqho0qhwzrun jhrphwu|,1 Iurp wkh pruh vlpsoh vroxelolw| fdofx0odwlrqv lqirupdwlrq rq wkh wlph vshqw e| wkh prohfxoh lqvlgh d iholflwrq +srvvleo|sursruwlrqdo wr wkh yroxph ri wkh odwhvw, dqg hqhujhwlfv ri lqwhudfwlrq fdq ehrewdlqhg dqg prvw suredeo| xvhg wr fdofxodwh gl�xvlrq dv zhoo1

Wkh vxffhvv ri PG dqg PF vlpxodwlrqv ghshqgv rq wkh fruuhfw irup ri wkhirufh �hog +II,1 Wkh ydoxhv ri wkh hpslulfdo sdudphwhuv fkdudfwhulvlqj ydulrxvlqwhudfwlrqv +ydq ghu Zddov/ hohfwurvwdwlf/ hwf1, xvhg vr idu iru udgrq zhuh wdnhq


Iljxuh 4616= �h�}�| �i*_ A,� �4@}i Lu TL*)t|)hi?i UL?�?i_ �? *@)ihi_ ��LhL�iU|Lh�|i duhL4

hiuihi?Ui deHoo�

htxdo wr wkrvh iru {hqrq1 Wkh fruuhfw sdudphwhuv lq wkh II vkrxog eh fdofxodwhge| vwxg|lqj wkh lqwhudfwlrqv ri udgrq zlwk ydulrxv w|shv ri dwrpv/ l1h1 Uq Fd/Uq Fo/ Uq Vl/ Uq R/ hwf1 Wr vshhg xs wkh txdqwxp fdofxodwlrqv gxulqj wkhsdudphwulvdwlrq ri wkh irufh �hog/ qhz h�hfwlyh fruh srwhqwldov iru udgrq iurpdoo0hohfwurq uhodwlylvwlf TP kdyh wr eh ghyhorshg1

Wr ydolgdwh wkh phwkrg/ ixwxuh fdofxodwlrqv vkrxog qrw rqo| eh irfxvhg rqsro|phulf phpeudqhv zlwk vlplodu surshuwlhv ri wkrvh lqyhvwljdwhg lq wkh suhvhqwuhvhdufk +SSWD/ doxplqlvhg SHW/ hsr{|/ hwf1, exw dovr iru pruh frpsoh{ v|vwhpvvkrxog eh lqfoxghg/ vxfk dv/ iru h{dpsoh/ sro|phu0fod| qdqrfrpsrvlwhv1 Fod|qdqrfrpsrvlwhv duh udslgo| ehfrplqj dq lpsruwdqw orz0frvw frpphufldo vrxufhri pdwhuldov iru orz jdv shuphdelolw| eduulhuv1 Lq sduwlfxodu wkh vwuxfwxuh rifrq�qhg sro|phuv vxfk dv sro|vw|uhqh/ sro|hwk|ohqh/ sro|hwk|ohqh r{lgh hwf1/kdyh ehhq lqyhvwljdwhg h{shulphqwdoo| + ^7;`/ ^7<`/ ^:5`, dv zhoo dv prghoohg xvlqjPrqwh Fduor phwkrgv ^465`1

Vrph fod|2sro|phu frpsrvlwhv kdyh ehhq vkrzq h{shulphqwdoo| wr r�hu vlj0ql�fdqwo| uhgxfhg shuphdelolwlhv ryhu wkh lqglylgxdo sro|phu ru fod| pdwhuldov1Wklv fdq eh h{sodlqhg sduwo| e| wkh dgghg wruwxrvlw| ri wkh sdwk gxh wr wkh frpel0qdwlrq ri fu|vwdoolqh +fod|, dqg dpruskrxv +sro|phu, uhjlrqv wkdw d jdv prohfxohru dwrp pxvw sdvv wr wudqvyhuvh wkh sro|phulf qdqrfrpsrvlwh phpeudqh1 PG

phwkrgv fdq eh xvhg wr vlpxodwh wkh vwuxfwxuh/ phfkdqlfdo/ wkhupdo/ vroxelo0lw| surshuwlhv ri fod|2sro|phu qdqrfrpsrvlwhv iru wkh ghyhorsphqw ri udgrq0jdv


eduulhuv1 Phvrvfdoh prghov vkrxog eh ghyhorshg xvlqj d frpelqdwlrq ri PG dqgNlqhwlf Prqwh Fduor phwkrgv1 Wkxv/ sk|vlfdo surshuwlhv ri sro|phu2od|huhg0vlolfdwh fod|v vxfk dv wkrvh ghslfwhg lq Ilj1 4616 fdq eh lqyhvwljdwhg1

Pruh uhfhqwo| + ^9:`/ ^46<`,/ wkh h�hfwlyh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw ri udgrq zdv gh0whuplqhg lq sro|phu2vlolfdwh jhov dqg fod| vxvshqvlrq xvhg dv vhdolqj pdwhuldov lqhqylurqphqwdo surwhfwlrq1 Edvhg rq wkhvh h{shulphqwdo �qglqjv/ lw zdv frqfoxghgwkdw qrw rqo| wkh h�hfwlyh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw zdv uhgxfhg vljql�fdqwo| exw dovrwkdw erwk pdwhuldov gudvwlfdoo| ghfuhdvh wkh dgyhfwlyh pdvv wudqvsruw lq srurxvphgld1 Ryhudoo/ wkh udgrq �x{ zdv ghfuhdvhg e| 8 wr 9 rughuv ri pdjqlwxgh e| lq0mhfwlqj jho0iruplqj pdwhuldov ru sodfhphqw ri fod| vxvshqvlrqv lq srurxv v|vwhpvruljlqdoo| kdylqj orz ghjuhhv ri zdwhu vdwxudwlrq1 Wkhvh vwxglhv frqfoxgh wkdwk|gurjhov dqg fod| vxvshqvlrqv duh survshfwlyh fdqglgdwhv lq dq lqwhjudwhg hqyl0urqphqwdo whfkqrorj| wr eh xvhg iru uhvwulfwlrq ri udgrq pljudwlrq lq vxevxuidfhuhjlrqv1

��

�L?U*�t�L?t @?_ }i?ih@*_�tU�tt�L?

�e�� W?|hL_�U|�L?

Dv vwdwhg lq fkdswhu 4/ lw lv dw suhvhqw wkh irfxv ri wkh Gxwfk jryhuqphqw srolf|wr frqwuro dqg srvvleo| uhgxfh wkh grvh gxh wr h{srvxuh wr qdwxudo udgldwlrq riwkh hqwluh Gxwfk srsxodwlrq1 Wkh vhfrqg Gxwfk qdwlrqdo vxuyh| vkrzhg wkdw wkhpdlq frqwulexwlrq wr wkh udgldwlrq h{srvxuh vwhpv iurp udgrq uhohdvhg e| wkhexloglqj pdwhuldov/ wkxv/ uhvhdufk zdv rulhqwhg wrzdugv frqwuroolqj dqg uhgxflqjwklv frqwulexwlrq1 Zlwklq wkh jurxs ri exloglqj pdwhuldov/ frqfuhwh lv d zlgho|dssolhg exloglqj pdwhuldo dqg kdv wkh odujhvw udgrq surgxfwlrq1 Wkxv/ wr pdnhh�flhqw uhfrpphqgdwlrqv/ d phfkdqlvp kdv wr eh vwxglhg e| zklfk udgrq lv jhq0hudwhg dqg uhohdvhg lq frqfuhwh1 Wkhuh duh wzr dssurdfkhv wr eh iroorzhg1 Rqhdssurdfk irfxvhv rq wkh lq�xhqfh ri wkh h{whuqdo sdudphwhuv +olnh iru h{dpsohsuhvvxuh, rq wkh ryhudoo pdfurvfrslf surfhvv ri udgrq uhohdvh1 Wkh uhvxowv suh0vhqwhg lq wklv wkhvlv ehorqj wr wkh dowhuqdwlyh dssurdfk/ l1h1 wkdw ri lqyhvwljdwlqj

568

569 Frqfoxvlrqv dqg jhqhudo glvfxvvlrq

udgrq jhqhudwlrq dqg uhohdvh lq uhodwlrq wr wkh plfurvwuxfwxudo surshuwlhv ri frq0fuhwh e| iroorzlqj pruh lqwlpdwho| wkh mrxuqh| ri udgrq dwrpv1 Udgrq jhqhudwlrq

dqg wudqvsruw= d mrxuqh| wkurxjk pdwwhu lv zulwwhq zlwk wkh �up eholhi wkdw lwlv wkh uhvsrqvlelolw| ri d vflhqwlvw lq vhdufk iru dq h{sodqdwlrq ri dq revhuyhgsk|vlfdo skhqrphqrq qrw wr orrn rqo| dw lwv pdfurvfrslf pdqlihvwdwlrq exw dovrwr xqghuvwdqg wkh pruh edvlf xqghuo|lqj fdxvhv1

Wklv fkdswhu jlyhv d uhylhz ri wkh prvw lpsruwdqw uhvxowv rewdlqhg dorqjwklv mrxuqh|1 Zh dlp lq rxu glvfxvvlrq wr lqwhjudwh doo wkhvh uhvxowv lq d jhq0hudo vfkhph ri udgrq0uhohdvh iurp frqfuhwh1 Zlwk wkh dfklhyhg nqrzohgjh/ zhsuhvhqwo| qrw rqo| kdyh d ehwwhu xqghuvwdqglqj dw d edvlf ohyho ri wkh surfhvvhvdqg wkhlu lq�xhqfh/ exw zh duh dovr deoh wr dvvhvv krz wkh qhzo| rewdlqhg uh0vxowv d�hfw wkh lqgrru0dlu udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv dqg frqvhtxhqwo|/ wkh UdgldwlrqShuirupdqfh Lqgh{ +vhfwlrq 41418,1

Wklv wkhvlv dovr uhsuhvhqwv d �uvw dwwhpsw wr frpelqh wkh hyroxwlrq ri frqfuhwhplfurvwuxfwxuh dqg prlvwxuh frqwhqw zlwk udgrq uhohdvh lqwr d vlqjoh qxphulfdofrgh wkdw zrxog doorz prghoolqj ri wkh wlph hyroxwlrq ri udgrq0uhohdvh/ xvlqj rqo|edvlf pdwhuldo dqg pl{wxuh txdqwlwlhv +ghqvlw|/ udglxp0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrq/zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr/ djjuhjdwh0fhphqw iudfwlrq/ hwf1,/ whpshudwxuh dqg uhodwlyh0kxplglw| klvwru|1

Lq wkh ehjlqqlqj ri wklv surmhfw/ wzr lpsruwdqw txhvwlrqv durvh=

� zk| dqg krz lv udgrq uhohdvhg iurp frqfuhwh lq d gl�huhqw zd| wkdqiurp rwkhu pdwhuldov +olnh/ iru h{dpsoh/ vdqg ru vrlo,B

� zkdw lv wkh prvw ihdvleoh phwkrg wr uhgxfh udgrq0uhohdvh iurp frqfuhwhB

Wr dqvzhu wkhvh txhvwlrqv rxu dwwhpsw zdv wr xvh d frpelqdwlrq ri h{shul0phqwv +fkdswhu :,/ prghoolqj +fkdswhu 6 dqg fkdswhu 7, dqg qxphulfdo vlpxod0wlrqv +fkdswhu 44 dqg fkdswhu 46, lq lqyhvwljdwlqj dqg h{sodlqlqj ydulrxv dvshfwvri udgrq0uhohdvh e| frqfuhwh1

�e�2 ��ih��i� Lu |�i hit�*|t

�e�2�� +@_�L4i|h)

Dv lq rwkhu pdwhuldov/ wkh vrxufh ri udgrq lq frqfuhwh lv udglxp suhvhqw lq ydulrxvfrpsrqhqwv= vdqg/ judyho dqg fhphqw1 Rxu phdvxuhphqwv +fkdswhu ;, lqglfdwhwkdw fhphqw +lq sduwlfxodu/ jjev fhphqw, kdv derxw dq rughu ri pdjqlwxgh kljkhu22SUd frqfhqwudwlrq wkdq wkh rwkhu frpsrqhqwv1 Dovr wkh 22SUd0dfwlylw| frqfhq0wudwlrq ri frqfuhwh lv htxdo wr wkh zhljkwhg vxp +wkh zhljkw lv wkh iudfwlrq ri d

4715 Ryhuylhz ri wkh uhvxowv 56:

fhuwdlq frpsrqhqw lq wkh frqfuhwh pl{, ri wkh 22SUd0dfwlylw| frqfhqwudwlrqv riwkh frpsrqhqwv1 Wklv dgglwlylw| k|srwkhvlv lv dovr ydolg iru 2�2Wk dqg efN1

Wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh ri gu| jjev fhphqw lv wkh kljkhvw ri doo frqfuhwh frpsr0qhqwv dowkrxjk lwv hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw lv yhu| vpdoo +ehorz wkh ghwhfwlrq olplw,1Dovr wkh zhljkwhg vxp ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri wkh gu| frpsrqhqwv lv rqh ru0ghu ri pdjqlwxgh vpdoohu wkdq wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ghwhuplqhg iru frqfuhwh1Wklv gl�huhqfh glvdsshduv li wkh frqwulexwlrq ri fhphqw0srzghu lv uhsodfhg e|wkdw ri wkh k|gudwhg fhphqw sdvwh1 Iru k|gudwhg fhphqw wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhlv dq rughu ri pdjqlwxgh kljkhu wkdq iru gu| fhphqw dqg pruhryhu/ wkh ydoxh riwkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw lqfuhdvhg iurp eduho| ghwhfwdeoh wr derxw 48(1 Wklvlpsolhv wkdw/ lq wkh surfhvv ri pdnlqj frqfuhwh/ udgrq lv hqkdqfhgo| uhohdvhge| ryhu dq rughu ri pdjqlwxgh1 Erwk/ wkh udgrq0hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw dqg wkhudgrq0uhohdvh udwh duh ghshqghqw rq wkh vwuxfwxudo surshuwlhv ri wkh srurxv pd0whuldo1 Iru fhphqw/ iru h{dpsoh/ wkh gu| srzghu lv kljko| ghqvh sdfnhg frpsduhgwr wkh k|gudwhg fhphqw sdvwh lq zklfk jho sruhv duh iruphg1 Lw zdv frqfoxghgwkdw lw lv ri lpsruwdqfh iru frqfuhwh wr xqghuvwdqg wkh surfhvv ri irupdwlrq riwkh plfurvwuxfwxuh dqg krz wklv plfurvwuxfwxuh lv dvvrfldwhg wr wkh k|gudwlrq rifhphqw dqg prlvwxuh wudqvsruw1

�e�2�2 5|h�U|�h@* ThLTih|�it

Wkh qrq0dgglwlylw| ri wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqwv dqg ri wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhviru wkh lqglylgxdo +gu|, frpsrqhqwv lqglfdwhv wkdw/ frqwudu| wr xqfrqvrolgdwhgsrurxv phgld olnh vrlo dqg vdqg/ lq frqfuhwh wkh srurvlw| dqg hyhq pruh lpsru0wdqw/ lwv vl}h0glvwulexwlrq duh hvvhqwldo lq xqghuvwdqglqj frqfuhwh ehkdylrxu1 Lqfrqfuhwh/ ydulrxv srurvlwlhv duh hqfrxqwhuhg= fdsloodu|/ jho dqg lqwhuod|hu srurvl0wlhv/ fkdudfwhulvwlf iru wkh fhphqw sdvwh dqg lqwhuidfldo }rqhv dqg plfurfudfnvdvvrfldwhg zlwk wkh suhvhqfh ri djjuhjdwhv1 Krzhyhu/ iru kljko| frpsdfwhg frq0fuhwh +olnh jjev frqfuhwh, lw lv d uhdvrqdeoh dvvxpswlrq wr frqvlghu frqfuhwh dvd krprjhqhrxv dqg xqlirup srurxv phglxp/ uhsuhvhqwhg e| lwv fhphqw sdvwh1Xqghu wklv dvvxpswlrq/ qxphulfdo fdofxodwlrqv +GxFRP, vkrz wkdw d yroxphw0ulf srurvlw| ri dssur{lpdwho| 43( lv fkdudfwhulvwlf iru frqfuhwh1 Wklv uhvxow lv lqjrrg djuhhphqw zlwk rxu phdvxuhphqwv1 Wkh qxphulfdo fdofxodwlrqv dovr vkrzwkdw lq frqfuhwh +fhphqw sdvwh dssur{lpdwlrq, wkh wrwdo srurvlw| lv glvwulexwhgdv iroorzv= 73( fruuhvsrqgv wr jho srurvlw|/ 68( wr fdsloodu| srurvlw| dqg wkh uh0pdlqlqj 58( wr lqwhuod|hu srurvlw|1 Wkh fkdudfwhulvwlf sruh0vl}h iru wkh jho sruhvlv derxw 433bp zkloh iru wkh fdsloodu| sruhv wkh glvwulexwlrq lv fhqwhuhg durxqgwkh ydoxh ri 433. � 433Hp1 Frqfoxvlyho| wkh sruh0vsdfh lq jjev0frqfuhwh pd|

56; Frqfoxvlrqv dqg jhqhudo glvfxvvlrq

eh ehvw ghvfulehg dv ehlqj iruphg iurp fdsloodu| sruhv vhjphqwhg e| jho sruhv/wklv glvwulexwlrq uhvxowlqj lq d yhu| ghqvh dqg wruwxrxv plfurvwuxfwxuh1 Vr idu/ lqwkh qxphulfdo fdofxodwlrqv wkh djjuhjdwhv zhuh rqo| frqvlghuhg dv d yroxphwulfsuhvhqfh +qr lqwhudfwlrq ehwzhhq djjuhjdwhv dqg fhphqw sdvwh zdv frqvlghuhg,1Iru frqfuhwh zlwk orzhu ghqvlw| dqg frpsdfwlrq/ wkh suhvhqfh ri lqwhuidfldo }rqhvpd|/ krzhyhu/ sod| dq lpsruwdqw uroh dqg vkrxog eh frqvlghuhg1

�e�2�� Ah@?tTLh| ThLTih|�it

D �uvw gluhfw frqvhtxhqfh ri wkh ghqvh plfurvwuxfwxuh ri frqfuhwh/ pruh suhflvho|ri wkh suhvhqfh ri jho sruhv/ lv wkdw qrw rqo| prohfxodu exw dovr Nqxgvhq gl�x0vlrq frqwulexwhv wr wkh ryhudoo phfkdqlvp vr wkdw wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwlv htxlydohqw wr d csdudooho frqqhfwlrq* ri wkh Nqxgvhq dqg prohfxodu gl�xvlylwlhv1Wkh jho sruhv dovr lqfuhdvh wkh wruwxrvlw| ri wkh srurxv sdwk1 Wkh wzr idfwv frp0elqhg ohdg wr d wzr rughuv ri pdjqlwxgh vpdoohu udgrq0exon gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwlq frqfuhwh wkdq lq vdqg +fkdswhu 43,�1

Jho sruhv duh d surgxfw ri wkh k|gudwlrq ri fhphqw dqg wkhlu wrwdo yroxph+dv zhoo dv wkh yroxph0udwlr ri jho dqg fdsloodu| sruhv, lv ghshqghqw rq wkh lqlwldozdwhu0fhphqw udwlr1 Dfwxdoo|/ lq frqfuhwh/ zdwhu sod|v dq hvvhqwldo uroh qrw rqo|dw hduo| djhv +lqlwldo pl{wxuh dqg fxulqj, exw dovr gxulqj lwv hqwluh olih0wlph1Fkdqjhv lq hqylurqphqwdo uhodwlyh kxplglw| fdq eh wudqvodwhg lq whupv ri lqwhuqdoprlvwxuh frqwhqwv +Ht1 616:, dqg prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrqv dqg zloo frqvhtxhqwo|lq�xhqfh ydulrxv w|shv ri wudqvsruw1 Prvw wudqvsruw sdudphwhuv wkxv/ duh dovrprlvwxuh0ghshqghqw1

Lq frqfuhwh/ d vlplodu ghshqghqfh rq wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri wkh gl�xvlrqfrh�flhqw dv iru wkh fdvh ri vdqg zdv phdvxuhg zlwk wkh rqo| glvvlplodulw| wkdwwkh ydoxhv duh wzr rughuv ri pdjqlwxgh vpdoohu1 Krzhyhu/ zkdw lv dfwxdoo| xq0xvxdo lq frqfuhwh frpsduhg wr vdqg lv wkh prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh ri wkh hpdqdwlrqsurfhvv/ dovr d frqvhtxhqfh ri wkh frpsdfw dqg gl�huhqwo| vwuxfwxuhg sruh0vsdfh1Lq vdqg/ udgrq hpdqdwlrq lv qhyhu }hur/ hyhq dw }hur prlvwxuh frqwhqw1 Douhdg|zlwk d vpdoo lqfuhdvh lq wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw dq rswlpdo2vdwxudwhg ydoxh ri wkh

�A��t _Lit ?L| ?iUitt@h�*) �4T*) |�@| *@)�?} L? @ t@?_) Mi@U� �t 4�U� 4Lhi _@?}ihL�t |�@?*��?} �? @ UL?Uhi|i M��*_�?}- Wu �i @tt�4i |�@| |�i t@?_ �@t @ h@_��4 UL?Ui?|h@|�L? i^�@* |L |�iL�ih@** h@_��4 UL?Ui?|h@|�L? Lu UL?Uhi|ic @t UL?Uhi|i �t !?L�? |L �@�i *L�ih TLhLt�|) |�@? t@?_c�u |�i t@4i @4L�?| Lu |�4i �t tTi?| *@)�?} L? @ t@?_) Mi@U� @?_ L? @ UL?Uhi|i t*@M |�i i TLt�hi�? |�i �ht| U@ti �L�*_ Mi �?_ii_ ��}�ih� OL�i�ihc @| |�i Mi@U� �| �t �t�@**) E@?_ Uih|@�?*)�@*�_ �? |�i �i|�ih*@?_t� 4Lhi ��?_) |�@? �? @ UL?Uhi|i M��*_�?} |��tc _�i |L �i?|�*@|�L?c |�ii TLt�hi �t @*tL *itt Etii @*tL 6�}� �e��

4715 Ryhuylhz ri wkh uhvxowv 56<

hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw lv uhdfkhg dqg suhvhuyhg ryhu wkh hqwluh udqjh1 Wkh hpd0qdwlrq surfhvv lq vdqg lv uhodwlyho| zhoo h{sodlqhg e| wkh uhfrlo udqjh ri udgrq lqdlu +� 96�p, dqg zdwhu +� 3=4�p, frpsduhg wr wkh gldphwhuv ri wkh fdsloodu|sruhv1 Lq frqfuhwh wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw dv ixqfwlrq ri prlvwxuh lv lqfuhdvlqjolqhduo| dqg/ dv rewdlqhg vr idu iurp h{shulphqwv/ wkh kljkhvw ydoxh lv frpsdudeohwr wkdw ri vdqg1 Vrph odwh fruuhfwlrqv krzhyhu/ lqglfdwh wkdw wklv pd{lpxp ydoxhpljkw eh voljkwo| odujhu1 Dv prvw vxuidfh duhd lv iruphg e| wkh jho sruhv/ dqgjho sruhv dovr kdyh wkh vpdoohvw gldphwhuv/ dq lqlwldo �oolqj zlwk zdwhu ri wkh jhosruhv zrxog eh uhvsrqvleoh iru wkh olqhdu lqfuhdvh ri wkh hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw riudgrq dw orz prlvwxuh frqwhqwv1 Qh{w/ wkh fdsloodu| sruhv zloo vwduw ehlqj vdwx0udwhg zlwk zdwhu1 Dv wkh wzr sruh vl}h glvwulexwlrqv ryhuods/ d frqwlqxrxvo| dqgolqhduo| lqfuhdvh ri wkh hpdqdwlrq lv rewdlqhg +vhh dovr Ilj1 4418,1

Frpelqhg/ prlvwxuh0ghshqghqw udgrq gl�xvlrq dqg hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqwv h{0sodlq 0lq yhu| jrrg djuhhphqw zlwk wkh h{shulphqwdo gdwd0 fkdqjhv lq udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv iru fkdqjlqj prlvwxuh frqwhqw1 Wkh idfw wkdw d krprjhqhrxv prlv0wxuh glvwulexwlrq lv vx�flhqw wr prgho wkh phdvxuhg gdwd lv rqfh pruh surylqjwkdw wkh k|srwkhvlv ri xqliruplw| iru frqfuhwh krogv1 Dffruglqj wr qxphulfdo vlp0xodwlrqv ri udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv/ d prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrq zlwk d qrq0}hur vxuidfhprlvwxuh zrxog vhhp wr ehwwhu uhsuhvhqw uhdolw|1 Pruhryhu/ wkh prlvwxuh sur�ohvrewdlqhg iurp GxFRP vlpxodwlrqv +vhfwlrq <18, vkrz wkdw iru frqfuhwh wkh gh0yldwlrq iurp krprjhqhlw| wdnhv sodfh rqo| ryhu d vxuidfh od|hu ri dssur{lpdwho|3137 p1 Iru udgrq uhohdvh dqg wudqvsruw/ wklv od|hu lv pxfk vpdoohu wkdq wkhgl�xvlrq ohqjwk ri udgrq dqg khqfh lwv ghyldwlrq lv qrw ri lpsruwdqfh1

�e�2�e +i_�U|�L? M) t�hu@Ui UL�ih�?}

Ydulrxv fryhulqj pdwhuldov +hsr{| joxh/ grxeoh0vlghg doxplqlvhg sro|hwk|ohqh irlo/vroxeoh jodvv/ doxplqxp sdlqw/ sro|hvwhu sdlqw/ shuvsh{/ SSWD irlo, zhuh dssolhg+dorqh/ lq rqh ru vhyhudo od|huv/ ru lq frpelqdwlrqv zlwk wkh rwkhu phqwlrqhg fry0hulqjv, rq frqfuhwh whvw fxehv1 Uhgxfwlrqv iurp doprvw }hur dqg forvh wr 433(zhuh rewdlqhg1 Orzhu uhgxfwlrqv duh prvwo| dvvrfldwhg +h{fhsw iru srru uhgxf0wlrq h�flhqflhv ri wkh fryhu lwvhoi, wr lqwhudfwlrqv/ vrphwlphv fdwdo|vhg e| wkhhqylurqphqw/ zlwk wkh frqfuhwh vxuidfh> d frpelqdwlrq ri cjrrg* dqg cedg* fryhuvdqg2ru gdpdjhv lq wkh fryhu1 Kljk h�flhqflhv duh irxqg iru kljk0shuirupdqfhsro|phulf phpeudqhv zlwk zhoo0nqrzq vwuhqjwk dqg uhvlvwdqfh surshuwlhv1 Xq0iruwxqdwho|/ wkh kljk0h�flhqf| fryhulqjv duh dovr xvxdoo| dydlodeoh dw yhu| kljkfrvwv dqg uhtxluh d vshfldo dssolfdwlrq surfhgxuh1

Dv dq dowhuqdwlyh wr wkh h{shulphqwdo ghwhuplqdwlrqv ri udgrq uhgxfwlrqv e|


phpeudqh dssolfdwlrq d whfkqltxh/ edvhg rq d frpelqdwlrq ri Prohfxodu G|qdp0lfv dqg Prqwh Fduor phwkrgv/ wr fdofxodwh wkh shuphdelolw| ri ydulrxv sro|phulfphpeudqhv/ lv hydoxdwhg1 Wkh lqlwldo fdofxodwlrqv gr qrw vkrz jrrg djuhhphqwzlwk wkh h{shulphqwdo gdwd dqg wkh phwkrg qhhgv vljql�fdqw lpsuryhphqwv1 Krz0hyhu/ rqfh ydolgdwhg/ vxfk phwkrgv uhsuhvhqw d srzhuixo wrro wkdw doorzv wr ghvljqsro|phulf phpeudqhv dffruglqj wr wkh sudfwlfdo uhtxluhphqwv1

�e�� W4T*�U@|�L?t L? �?_LLh h@_L? UL?Ui?|h@|�L?t

�e�� L_i* U@*U�*@|�L?t

Dq hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh lqgrru0udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv lqvlgh d krxvh fdq eh rewdlqhgxvlqj wkh prghoolqj surfhgxuh ghvfulehg lq fkdswhu 44 dqg dovr lqirupdwlrq iurpGxFRP fdofxodwlrqv1 Udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri frqfuhwh zdoov lq d krxvh zloo gh0shqg rq wkh lqgrru uhodwlyh kxplglw| +UK, dv d frqvhtxhqfh ri wkh idfw wkdwudgrq0uhohdvh udwhv duh ghshqghqw rq wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw ri frqfuhwh +p, dqgdovr ehfdxvh d gluhfw uhodwlrq ehwzhhqUK dqgp h{lvwv +Ht1 616:,1 Rq edvlv ri wkhsruh0vl}h glvwulexwlrqv ri wkh jho dqg fdsloodu| sruhv +diwhu 493 gd|v, fdofxodwhge| GxFRP +Ilj1 <1; dqg Ilj1 <1:,/ wkh uhodwlrq ehwzhhq UK dqg p +Ilj1 4714,lv frqvwuxfwhg/ dffruglqj wr wkh surfhgxuh ghvfulehg lq vhfwlrq 617/ iru wkh wrwdo/jho dqg fdsloodu| srurvlw|1 D ydoxh ri %@31448 +ghwhuplqhg iru d frpsohwho| gu|vdpsoh, lv xvhg lq wkh fdofxodwlrqv1 Wklv ydoxh lv edvhg rq wkh dvvxpswlrq wkdwwkh wrwdo dlu0�oohg srurvlw| dydlodeoh iru udgrq diwhu gu|lqj d frqfuhwh vshflphqfrqvlvwv ri jho dqg fdsloodu| sruhv rqo|21 Wkh udwlr ehwzhhq jho dqg fdsloodu|srurvlw| +dssur{lpdwho| 415: iru d zdwhu fhphqw udwlr ri 317; e| pdvv, lv dovrrewdlqhg iurp GxFRP fdofxodwlrqv +Ilj1 <19,1

Ilj1 4714 vkrzv wkdw wkh ghjuhh ri zdwhu vdwxudwlrq p ri wkh wrwdo srurvlw|lqfuhdvhv uhodwlyho| idvw dw orz UK0ydoxhv +UK?43(,1 Wkhuhdiwhu wkh ghfuhdvhlv pruh judgxdo/ xs wr UK@;3(1 Wkh �qdo lqfuhdvh xqwlo vdwxudwlrq lv djdlqvwhhshu +UKA;3(,1 Wkh �jxuh dovr vkrzv wkdw wkh jho srurvlw| lv douhdg| ;3(+p @ 3=;, vdwxudwhg dw UK@53(1 Wklv lv lq vkdus frqwudvw zlwk wkh ehkdylrxu riwkh fdsloodu| srurvlw| wkdw judgxdoo| lqfuhdvhv wr p @ 3=5 xs wr UK@;3(1 Rqo|zkhq jho sruhv duh frpsohwho| vdwxudwhg/ d yhu| vwhhs lqfuhdvh lq wkh prlvwxuhfrqwhqw ri wkh fdsloodu| sruhv rffxuv1

Lq wkh qh{w vwhs/ wkh uhodwlrq ehwzhhq UK dqg p lv xvhg wr fdofxodwh wkh

2A�i _h)�?} ThLUi_�hi @TT*�i_ |L |�i UL?Uhi|i U�Mit E|i4Tih@|�hi �T |L 2Df�� L?*) hi4L�it|�i �@|ih UL?|@�?i_ �? |�i }i* @?_ U@T�**@h) TLhit @?_ ?L| |�i �?|ih*@)ih �@|ih�

4716 Lpsolfdwlrqv rq lqgrru udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv 574

RH (%)

0 20 40 60 80 100

m

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

gel porosity

capillary porosity

total porosity

Iljxuh 4714= +i*@|�L? Mi|�ii?UK @?_p uLh UL?Uhi|i Lu t|@?_@h_ UL4TLt�|�L?� A�i hi*@|�L?

�t UL?t|h�U|i_ L? M@t�t Lu #�� U@*U�*@|�L?t @?_ Lu ,^� ��.� A�i uh@U|�L? Lu �@|ih t@|�h@|�L?

uLh |L|@* EtL*�_ *�?i�c }i* E_L||i_ *�?i� @?_ U@T�**@h) E_@t�i_ *�?i� TLhLt�|) @hi t�L�?�

udgrq uhohdvh ri frqfuhwh ri zklfk wkh zdwhu frqwhqw lv lq htxloleulxp zlwk dfhuwdlq uhodwlyh kxplglw|1 Wr rewdlq uhvxowv uhdglo| frqyhuwleoh wr sudfwlfdo vlwx0dwlrqv ^8:`/ wkh vlwxdwlrq lq uhdo krxvhv/ zkhuh frqfuhwh lv prvwo| suhvhqw lq odujhvodev +zdoov/ �rruv, ri dssur{lpdwho| 53 fp wklfnqhvv +vxuidfh duhd 4 p2, zdvfrqvlghuhg1 Ixuwkhupruh/ wr d jrrg dssur{lpdwlrq/ udgrq zloo eh uhohdvhg rqo|iurp wkh vxuidfhv wkdw duh gluhfwhg wrzdugv wkh lqvlgh ri wkh urrp dqg wrzdugvwkh fdylw| zdoo +rxwvlgh, ri wkh krxvh1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw udgrq0uhohdvh lv d rqh0glphqvlrqdo surfhvv dqg d }hur0�x{ erxqgdu| frqglwlrq dw wkh irxu vpdoohu duhdvlgh0vxuidfhv ri wkh frqfuhwh vode zdv vlpxodwhg1 Ilqdoo|/ rqo| wkh lqgrru gluhfwhgudgrq uhohdvh zdv frqvlghuhg1 Xvlqj wkh prgho sdudphwhuv ri wkh �qdo prghoolqj+Ilj1 44143, wkh vxuidfh h{kdodwlrq udwh Hr +Etp

32 v3�, zdv fdofxodwhg iru wklv 53fp wklfn vode ri frqfuhwh dv d ixqfwlrq ri uhodwlyh kxplglw|1 Wkh uhvxow suhvhqwhglq Ilj1 4715 vkrzv wkdw Hr vwduwv dw d qrq0}hur ydoxh iru p @ 3/ lqfuhdvhv wr dpd{lpxp dw p � 3=: dqg gursv r� udslgo| iru p A 3=;1 Wklv uhvxow/ dqg wkhidfw wkdw lq krxvhv wkh UK xvxdoo| udqjhv ehwzhhq 317 dqg 31:/ phdqv wkdw wkhlqgrru hqylurqphqw fruuhvsrqgv wr wkh vlwxdwlrq lq zklfk wkh udgrq uhohdvh lv dwlwv pd{lpxp ydoxh1

Li zh qrz frqvlghu d urrpprgho zlwk d yroxph Y@7{;{518 p� dqg zlwk 53 fp


RH (%)

0 20 40 60 80 100

Es (

mB

q m

-2 s

-1)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Iljxuh 4715= 5�hu@Ui i �@*@|�L? h@|i Hr Lu 53 fp |��U! UL?Uhi|i t*@M @t @ u�?U|�L? Lu hi*@|��i

��4�_�|) UK�

wklfn frqfuhwh zdoov dqg �rruv +qhjohfwlqj grruv dqg zlqgrzv wkh wrwdo frqfuhwhvxuidfh duhd lv D@457 p2,/ wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq lq wkh urrp/ F+Etp3�,/uhvxowlqj iurp wkh udgrq0uhohdvh ri wkh frqfuhwh lv fdofxodwhg dv d ixqfwlrq ri wkhlqgrru uhodwlyh kxplglw| +UK, xvlqj wkh Hr ydoxhv lq Ilj1 4715 e|=

F @ �.r

bT> +4714,

zkhuh �+v3�, lv wkh yhqwlodwlrq udwh ri wkh urrp1 Lq Ilj1 4716 wkh fdofxodwhg Fduh suhvhqwhg iru ydoxhv ri � ri 3=7> 4 dqg 4=9 k3�1 Wkhvh yhqwlodwlrq udwhv duhedvhg rq wkh uhvxowv ri wkh vhfrqg Gxwfk udgrq vxuyh| zhuh � @ 3=7�4=9 k3� ^:`zdv irxqg1

Ilj1 4716 dovr vkrzv wkdw wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq lq wkh prgho urrp lv h{0wuhpho| vhqvlwlyh wr wkh yhqwlodwlrq udwh1 F dqg � duh lqyhuvho| olqhduo| uhodwhg1Wklv phdqv wkdw li rqh dvvhvv udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv lq gzhoolqjv/ udgrq frqfhq0wudwlrqv dqg yhqwlodwlrq udwhv vkrxog eh phdvxuhg vlpxowdqhrxvo|1 Lq fdvh wkhvhtxdqwlwlhv kdyh ehhq phdvxuhg vlpxowdqhrxvo|/ wkh| vkrxog dovr uhpdlq frxsohglq d ixuwkhu dvvhvvphqw1


RH (%)

0 20 40 60 80 100

C (

Bq

m-3

)

0

5

10

15

20

25

λ v=0.4 h-1

λv=1.6 h-1

λv= 1 h-1

Iljxuh 4716= +@_L? UL?Ui?|h@|�L?c F @t @ u�?U|�L? Lu hi*@|��i ��4�_�|) UK �? @ ; � 7 �5=8p� hLL4 ��|� �@**t @?_ �LLht Lu 53 fp |��U! UL?Uhi|i�

�e��2 +�W U@*U�*@|�L?t

Wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq lq wkh prgho urrp fdq dovr eh fdofxodwhg e| dsso|lqjwkh USL vfkhph +vhfwlrq 41418,=

F @3=8PH6

��Y> +4715,

zlwk P wkh wrwdo pdvv ri frqfuhwh lq wkh urrp dqg H6 +Et nj3� v3�, wkh h{kd0odwlrq udwh ri frqfuhwh e| pdvv1 Wkh idfwru 318 fruuhfwv iru wkh idfw wkdw rqo| kdoiri wkh udgrq lv qrw uhohdvhg lqwr wkh urrp exw lq wkh fdylw| zdoo1 H6 vkrxog ehphdvxuhg rq dq xqfryhuhg frqfuhwh whvw fxeh +48 fp vlghv, frqglwlrqhg dw 83(uhodwlyh kxplglw|1 Iru wkh suhvhqw hydoxdwlrq/ edvhg rq wkh vwdqgdug Gxwfk frq0fuhwh/ d ydoxh ri H6 @<1:�433S Et nj3� v3� zdv rewdlqhg1 Wkh ghqvlw| ri frqfuhwh


dw 83( UK zdv fdofxodwhg iurp wkh gu| ghqvlw|/ wkh srurvlw| dqg wkh ghjuhh rizdwhu vdwxudwlrq fruuhvsrqglqj wr wklv kxplglw|/ �DfI @ 5663njp3�1 Wkh wrwdopdvv ri wkh frqfuhwh lq wkh prgho urrp lv wkhqP @ 3=5 D �DfI1 Lqvhuwlqj wkhvhydoxhv lq Ht1 4715 �qdoo| uhvxowv lq wkh USL hvwlpdwh iru wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqlq wkh prgho urrp +Wdeoh 4714,1 Frpsdulqj wkhvh ydoxhv zlwk wkh pd{lpxp frq0

Wdeoh 4714= ,t|�4@|i Lu |�i h@_L? UL?Ui?|h@|�L? F �? |�i UL?Uhi|i 4L_i* hLL4 @UULh_�?} |L

|�i +�W U@*U�*@|�L? tU�i4i�

�� +k3�, F +Etp3�,317 64164 4518419 :1;

fhqwudwlrqv +dw dssur{lpdwho| 930:3( UK, lq Ilj1 4716 zh revhuyh wkdw wkh USLuhvxowv duh 45( kljkhu1 Dv wkh USL hvwlpdwh grhv qrw frqvlghu dq| ghshqghqfh riwkh pdvv0h{kdodwlrq udwh rq wkh uhodwlyh kxplglw| wklv ryhuhvwlpdwh lv hyhq odujhudw doo rwkhu UK0ydoxhv1 Wkh uhdvrq iru wklv ryhuhvwlpdwh lv wzrirog=

� wkh USL dvvxphv wkdw wkh gl�xvlrq ohqjwk ri udgrq lq frqfuhwh lv odujhfrpsduhg wr wkh wklfnqhvv ri wkh frqfuhwh zdoov +wkxv odujhu wkdq 53 fp, zklfklpsolhv wkdw wkh vpdoohu whvw fxehv +48 fp vlghv, pd| eh xvhg wr hvwlpdwh wkhudgrq uhohdvh ri wkh 53 fp wklfn zdoov

� wkh USL xvhv wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh iurp dq xqfryhuhg frqfuhwh fxeh/lq zklfk wkh gl�xvlrq lv wkuhh0glphqvlrqdo/ wr hvwlpdwh wkh udgrq uhohdvh ri zdoovlq zklfk wkh gl�xvlrq lv hvvhqwldoo| rqh0glphqvlrqdo1

Wkh �uvw dvvxpswlrq lv qrw ixoo| vdwlv�hg ehfdxvh/ dv vkrzq lq Ilj1 4717/ wkhudgrq0gl�xvlrq ohqjwk lq frqfuhwh lv dssur{lpdwho| 5:fp iru gu| frqfuhwh exwrqo| 46 fp iru frqfuhwh frqglwlrqhg dw 83(UK +p @ 3=9,1 Wkh gl�xvlrq ohqjwk/c> dv ixqfwlrq ri wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqw zdv fdofxodwhg dffruglqj wr Ht1 7164 lqzklfk wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw/ G zdv dvvxphg wr ghshqg rq p yld Ht1 431481 Dverwk dssur{lpdwlrqv duh qrw ixoo| vdwlv�hg/ dq ryhuhvwlpdwh ri wkh udgrq surgxf0wlrq ri wkh frqfuhwh lq wkh prgho urrp zloo eh rewdlqhg1Lw lv udwkhu vxusulvlqj wrrevhuyh wkdw ghvslwh wkh ryhuhvwlpdwh ri wkh udgrq surgxfwlrq lq wkh USL vfkhph/wkh ghulyhg udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq +4518 Etp3�, dw wkh dyhudjh ydoxh iru wkh yhq0wlodwlrq udwh lq Gxwfk krxvhv +4 k3�, lv vwloo vljql�fdqwo| orzhu wkdq wkh dyhudjhfrqwulexwlrq ri exloglqj pdwhuldov +:3( ri 5< Etp3�, dv hvwlpdwhg lq wkh vhf0


moisture content, m0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

diff

usi

on

len

gth

, " "(c

m)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Iljxuh 4717= #iTi?_i?Ui Lu h@_L?�_�g�t�L? *i?}|�c c+p, L? |�i 4L�t|�hi UL?|i?| Lu UL?Uhi|i

U@*U�*@|i_ @UULh_�?} |L ,^� e�� ? ��U� @ _iTi?_i?Ui LuG+p, _itUh�Mi_ M) ,^� �f��D �t �ti_�

rqg Gxwfk udgrq vxuyh| qdpho| 53 Etp3� ^469`1 Wkh glvfuhsdqf| lv lq uhdolw|suredeo| hyhq odujhu jlyhq wkh idfw wkdw qrupdo urrpv kdyh grruv dqg zlqgrzv+zklfk zloo uhgxfh wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq lq wkh hvwlpdwh, dqg wkdw urrpv duhdovr qrw hqwluho| pdgh xs ri frqfuhwh/ zkhuhdv doo rwkhu exloglqj pdwhuldov kdylqjorzhu udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv1

Doo wkhvh frqvlghudwlrqv ohdg wr wkh frqfoxvlrq wkdw prghoolqj wkh frqwulexwlrqri exloglqj pdwhuldov wr lqgrru udgrq e| vwduwlqj iurp gl�xvlyh h{kdodwlrq udwhvphdvxuhg rq vdpsohv lq d oderudwru| vhwwlqj grhv qrw jlyh uhvxowv frqvlvwhqw zlwkwkh rxwfrphv ri wkh vhfrqg Gxwfk udgrq vxuyh|1 Wklv glvfuhsdqf| srlqwv rxwwkdw wkh dssur{lpdwlrqv iru wkh USL fdofxodwlrqv duh lqydolg dqg wkdw wkh prghoqhhgv d uhdvvhvvphqw1 Vxfk d uhdvvhvvphqw vhhpv d pruh vflhqwl�f dssurdfk wkdqmxvw wkh duwl�fldo lqwurgxfwlrq ri d idfwru iru rffxsdqwv lq�xhqfh wr orzhu wkhyhqwlodwlrq udwh1 Wklv lv suhvhqwo| dgyrfdwhg e| wkh frpplwwhh uhvsrqvleoh iruwkh lpsohphqwdwlrq ri wkh USL ehfdxvh orzhulqj wkh yhqwlodwlrq udwh lv xqmxvwl�hgvlqfh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv dqg yhqwlodwlrq udwhv zhuh phdvxuhg vlpxowdqhrxvo|1


�e�e �L?U*�t�L?t

Wkh frpelqhg h{shulphqwdo dqg qxphulfdo uhvxowv suhvhqwhg lq wklv wkhvlv vkrzwkdw dowkrxjk frqfuhwh lv d frpsoh{ dqg khwhurjhqhrxv srurxv phglxp/ xqghuvrph flufxpvwdqfhv +kljko| frpsdfwhg frqfuhwh,/ d jrrg ghvfulswlrq lv rewdlqhge| dssur{lpdwlqj wkh udgrq surshuwlhv ri frqfuhwh e| frqvlghulqj wkh fhphqwsdvwh rqo|1 Xqghu wklv dvvxpswlrq/ wkh udgrq uhohdvh iurp frqfuhwh prvw olnho|fdq eh prghoohg rq edvlv ri wkh pxowl0skdvh udgrq wudqvsruw htxdwlrq dqg wkhuhvxowv uhsuhvhqw dq dgglwlrqdo ydolgdwlrq ri wkh pxowl0skdvh udgrq wudqvsruwhtxdwlrq dqg lwv lpsohphqwdwlrq1 Frpelqlqj wklv udgrq wudqvsruw prgho zlwk dprgho iru frqfuhwh vwuxfwxuh +GxFRP, zloo ohdg wr d yhu| srzhuixo prghoolqjwrro iru wkh ghvljq ri orz0udgrq surgxflqj frqfuhwh1 Lpsuryhphqwv ri wkh prg0hoolqj vkrxog pdlqo| irfxv rq d ehwwhu dvvhvvphqw ri wkh lqsxw sdudphwhuv hvsh0fldoo| pruh lqirupdwlrq lv qhhghg rq wkh prlvwxuh ghshqghqfh ri wkh hpdqdwlrqfrh�flhqw/ wkh prlvwxuh glvwulexwlrq lq wkh frqfuhwh dqg wkh udgrq0dgvruswlrqfrh�flhqw ri frqfuhwh1

Udgrq uhohdvh iurp frqfuhwh lq d gzhoolqj ghshqgv rq wkh lqgrru uhodwlyhkxplglw|> lw uhdfkhv d pd{lpxp iru UK @ 63( wr :3(1 Udgrq uhohdvh iurpfrqfuhwh fdq dovr eh fdofxodwhg dffruglqj wr wkh surfhgxuh ri wkh USL vfkhph xvhglq gzhoolqjv dqg ryhuhvwlpdwhv wkh uhdo surgxfwlrq +iurp zdoov dqg �rruv 53 fpwklfn, zlwk 43058(1 Erwk/ wkh USL dv rxu prgho fdofxodwlrqv ri wkh frqwulexwlrqri exloglqj pdwhuldov wr wkh lqgrru udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq duh dw ohdvw 83( orzhuwkdq wkh ydoxhv hvwlpdwhg lq wkh vhfrqg Gxwfk udgrq vxuyh|1 Wklv lqglfdwhv wkdwwkhuh lv vwloo dq xqdffrxqwhg surfhvv wkdw frqwulexwhv vljql�fdqwo| wr wkh lqgrruudgrq frqfhqwudwlrq1 Erwk USL dqg rxu prgho lv edvhg rq txdqwlwlhv zklfkduh ghwhuplqhg iru gl�xvlrq0rqo| frqglwlrqv1 Dv revhuyhg e| Doghqndps dqgVwrrs ^47`/ vpdoo suhvvxuh gl�huhqfhv pd| fkdqjh wkh udgrq vrxufh vwuhqjwk rivrlo e| dq rughu ri pdjqlwxgh1 Li vxfk phfkdqlvpv duh dovr suhvhqw iru exloglqjpdwhuldov vxfk dv frqfuhwh/ wkh plvpdwfk ehwzhhq fdofxodwlrqv dqg gdwd pd| ehh{sodlqhg1 Ri frxuvh/ lw kdv wr eh vhhq li wklv xqnqrzq phfkdqlvp dfwv lq wkhvdph zd| iru doo exloglqj pdwhuldov1 Li vxfk d phfkdqlvp lv suhvhqw/ uhyhuvlqjwkh gluhfwlrq ri wkh yhqwlodwlrq �rz +l1h1 ryhusuhvvxuh udwkhu wkdq xqghusuhvvxuhfrqglwlrqv, pd| uhgxfh lqgrru udgrq frqfhqwudwlrqv e| dq rughu ri pdjqlwxgh1

Dq dowhuqdwlyh wr wkh pdqxidfwxuh ri orz0udgrq surgxflqj frqfuhwh lv uhsuh0vhqwhg e| vxuidfh fryhulqj1 Qrw dozd|v dq h{shulphqwdo lqyhvwljdwlrq ohdgv wrlpphgldwh uhvxowv dqg pruhryhu/ xvxdoo| fryhulqjv wkdw fdq hdvlo| eh dssolhg rqexloglqj pdwhuldo vxuidfhv gr qrw h{klelw jrrg udgrq0uhgxfwlrq surshuwlhv1 Kljk0shuirupdqfh uhlqirufhg sro|phulf phpeudqhv duh vr idu wkh rqo| fdqglgdwh wkdw

4718 Ixwxuh ghyhorsphqw 57:

doprvw wrwdoo| uhgxfhv udgrq uhohdvh iurp frqfuhwh1Wkh fkdudfwhulvwlf sk|vlfdo sdudphwhu wkdw lv uhodwhg wr wkh uhgxfwlrq h�0

flhqf| ri d phpeudqh lv wkh shuphdelolw| zlwk uhvshfw wr d fhuwdlq shqhwudqwjdv1 Shuphdelolw| fdq eh fdofxodwhg xvlqj dwrplvwlf prghov wkdw vhsdudwho| hv0wlpdwh wkh vroxelolw| dqg gl�xvlrq1 Iurp rxu fdofxodwlrqv lw lv pdlqo| gl�xvlrqwkdw dffrxqwv iru wkh ydoxhv ri wkh shuphdelolwlhv/ dv xvxdoo| wkh vroxelolw| ydo0xhv zloo qrw fkdqjh wkh wuhqg1 Iurp wkh prghoolqj zh ohduqhg wkdw wkh gl�xvlrqsurfhvv lq sro|phuv dw dwrplvwlf vfdoh frqvlvwv ri krsv ehwzhhq iholflwrqv 0odujhyrlgv wkdw hdvlo| dffrpprgdwh wkh shqhwudqw jdv prohfxohv1 Prohfxodu prg0hoolqj lv sursrvhg dv wkh whfkqltxh wr ghvljq sro|phulf phpeudqhv zlwk ghvluhgsurshuwlhv1

�e�D 6�|�hi _i�i*LT4i?|

Wkh jrdo ri wklv wkhvlv zdv wr dfklhyh d ehwwhu xqghuvwdqglqj dw ixqgdphqwdo ohyhori wkh surfhvvhv wkdw frqwuro udgrq jhqhudwlrq dqg wudqvsruw lq frqfuhwh dqg frxogohdg wr ihdvleoh uhfrpphqgdwlrqv wr uhgxfh udgrq uhohdvh1 Wzr pdlq gluhfwlrqvzhuh dssurdfkhg/ erwk wu|lqj wr uhodwh udgrq wudqvsruw wr wkh plfurvwuxfwxudofkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh lqyhvwljdwhg pdwhuldov1 Uhjdughg iurp wkh srlqw ri ylhz riwkh vwdwh0ri0wkh0duw lqyhvwljdwlrqv lq wkh udgrq �hog/ erwk dssurdfkhv duh lqqryd0wlyh dqg rshq xs qhz gluhfwlrqv iru uhvhdufk1

Wkh �uvw pdlq gluhfwlrq zdv wkh dwwhpswwr frxsoh wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh irupdwlrq dqg hyroxwlrq ri frqfuhwh

zlwk wkh surfhvv ri udgrq uhohdvh1Wkh vwhsv sursrvhg lq wkh frxsolqj vfkhph +Ilj1 915, zhuh ydolgdwhg> erwk

qxphulfdo frghv surylglqj uholdeoh lqirupdwlrq1 Krzhyhu/ ixwxuh zrun vkrxogirfxv rq exloglqj dq lqwhuidfh ehwzhhq wkh wzr qxphulfdo frghv +UdgPrg dqgGxFRP, vr wkdw vwduwlqj iurp pdwhuldo surshuwlhv lq wkh lqsxw/ udgrq0uhohdvhudwhv ri frqfuhwh dv ixqfwlrq ri wlph duh rewdlqhg dv d �qdo uhvxow1 Lq d ixwxuhyhuvlrq ri vxfk d frgh dovr ydulrxv ghwhulrudwlrq phfkdqlvpv +vxfk dv fruurvlrq/dondol0vlolfd uhdfwlrqv/ fduerqdwlrq/ vxoskdwh dwwdfn/ wkhupdo vwudlqv, wkdw gdp0djh wkh lqwhuqdo vwuxfwxuh +dqg vwuhqjwk, ri frqfuhwh vkrxog eh frqvlghuhg1 Iruh{dpsoh/ erwk fduerqdwlrq udwhv dqg wkhupdo vwudlq frxog ohdg wr wkh irupdwlrqri plfurfudfnv wkdw zrxog dfw dv txlfn gl�xvlrq sdwkv iru udgrq1

Wkh vhfrqg gluhfwlrq zdv

wr sursrvh prohfxodu prghoolqj dv WKH phwkrg wr ghvljq sro|phulf

phpeudqhv zlwk jrrg udgrq uhgxfwlrq surshuwlhv1

57; Frqfoxvlrqv dqg jhqhudo glvfxvvlrq

Lqlwldo uhvxowv srlqw wr d glvfuhsdqf| ri derxw wkuhh rughuv ri pdjqlwxgh eh0wzhhq h{shulphqwdo dqg qxphulfdoo| fdofxodwhg shuphdelolwlhv ri ydulrxv sro|0phulf phpeudqhv1 Rqh ri wkh pdlq uhdvrqv lv wkdw dw suhvhqw/ iru udgrq/ wkhlqwhudfwlrqv dw dwrplf vfdoh duh qrw zhoo ghvfulehg dqg frqvhtxhqwo|/ d ghwdlohgvwxg| wr fdofxodwh wkh surshu sdudphwhuv lq wkh irufh �hog vkrxog eh d sulpdu|irfxv1 Qh{w/ udgrq gl�xvlrq dqg shuphdelolw| frh�flhqwv vkrxog eh fdofxodwhgzkloh dovr pdwfklqj wkh h{shulphqwdo frqglwlrqv +h1j1 ghjuhh ri fu|vwdoolqlw|,1Lpsuryhg uhvxowv pd| eh rewdlqhg li d phwkrg wkdw gluhfwo| fdofxodwhv shuph0delolwlhv +dqg qrw dv d surgxfw ri gl�xvlrq dqg vroxelolw| frh�flhqwv, fdq ehghyhorshg1 Frpelqhg PG dqg PF phwkrgv vkrxog wkhq qrw rqo| eh whvwhg iruxowud0kljk shuirupdqfh sro|phulf phpeudqhv olnh SPPD dqg SSWD +wkdw zhuhvkrzq wr kdyh jrrg udgrq0uhgxfwlrq surshuwlhv zkhq dssolhg rq frqfuhwh, exwdovr rq sro|phu0fod| qdqrfrpsrvlwhv iru zklfk h{shulphqwdo lqyhvwljdwlrqv kdyhdouhdg| lqglfdwhg lqfuhdvhg eduulhu surshuwlhv1 Dgglwlrqdoo|/ zlwk PG dqg PF

surfhgxuhv/ dovr wkh sk|vlfdo surshuwlhv ri sro|phu2vlolfdwh jhov dqg fod| vxvshq0vlrqv xvhg dv vhdolqj pdwhuldov lq hqylurqphqwdo surwhfwlrq fdq eh lqyhvwljdwhg1

Lq wkh h{shulphqwdo �hog/ d ihz lghdv uhpdlqhg xqwhvwhg dqg zloo eh ryhuylhzhgehorz1

Iurp wkh pl{wxuh sdudphwhuv wkh zdwhu0fhphqw udwlr zdv vkrzq wr ghflgh wkhgxudwlrq ri k|gudwlrq dqg dovr wkh udwlr ri fdsloodu| dqg jho sruhv/ orz zdwhu0fhphqw udwlrv ohdglqj wr yhu| frpsdfw plfurvwuxfwxuhv1 Krzhyhu/ lq d suhylrxvvwxg| e| Lqwurq ^9` rq ihdvleoh whfkqltxhv wkdw zrxog ohdg wr d uhgxfwlrq ri udgrq0uhohdvh ri frqfuhwh lw zdv uhsruwhg wkdw e| uhgxflqj wkh zdwhu fhphqw udwlr qruhgxfwlrq lq wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv ri frqfuhwh zhuh phdvxuhg1

Dqrwkhu zd| wr uhgxfh udgrq uhohdvh lv e| srvw0wuhdwphqw vroxwlrqv/ l1h1 wkdwzrxog qrw dgyhuvho| d�hfw wkh phfkdqlfdo surshuwlhv wkdw ghyhors gxulqj fxulqjdqg rqo| vhdo wkh lqwhuqdo srurxv vwuxfwxuh1 Vxfk d phwkrg +dowkrxjk uhodwlyho|h{shqvlyh, wkdw prvw suredeo| fdq dovr jxdudqwhh jrrg udgrq0uhgxfwlrq h�hfwvzrxog eh wr lpsuhjqdwh frqfuhwh zlwk sro|phuv1 Vxuidfh wuhdwphqw hpsor|lqjwkh �xwwhulqj whfkqltxh lq wkh hduolhu phqwlrqhg vwxg| ri Lqwurq ^9` zdv irxqg wruhgxfh udgrq uhohdvh zlwk d idfwru ri wkuhh1

Wkh lqirupdwlrq rxw ri wkh yhu| ihz h{lvwlqj olwhudwxuh vwxglhv rq wkh h�hfwri ydulrxv zdwhu0fhphqw udwlrv dqg vxuidfh wuhdwphqw whfkqltxhv rq udgrq uhohdvhiurp frqfuhwh lv qrw frqfoxvlyh hqrxjk wkxv/ uhtxlulqj pruh h{whqvlyh vwxglhv1 Iruh{dpsoh/ rqh frxog lqyhvwljdwh wkh ghshqghqfh ri wkh udgrq0gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwrq ydulrxv zdwhu0fhphqw udwlrv ru lwv srvvleoh uhgxfwlrq gxh wr d fhuwdlq vxuidfhwuhdwphqw1 Wkh whfkqltxhv ghvfulehg dqg whvwhg lq wkh suhvhqw wkhvlv surylgh d

4718 Ixwxuh ghyhorsphqw 57<

xvhixo wrro iru vxfk lqyhvwljdwlrqv1

Uhfhqw uhvhdufk lq wkh duhd lqglfdwhv wkdw rqh zd| wr vshhg xs wkh kdughq0lqj surfhvv ri frqfuhwh lv wr xvh wkh surshu fhphqw dgglwlyhv/ l1h1 lqh{shqvlyhzdwhu0vroxeoh rujdqlf pdwhuldov wkdw fu|vwdoolvh gxulqj wkh gu|lqj surfhvv/ dovrfrqwulexwlqj wr wklfnhqlqj1 Rqh vxfk orz0whfk vroxwlrq zdv wr xvh vxjdu dv dg0glwlyh wr wkh fhphqw irupxod1 Zdwhu0glvvroyhg vxjdu wklfnhqv wkh fhphqw dqghyhqwxdoo| irupv fu|vwdov rqfh wkh iuhh zdwhu frqfhqwudwlrq gursv gxulqj fxulqj1Prvw suredeo| wkh vxjdu fu|vwdov iruphg wklv zd| vkrxog dovr eorfn wkh lqwulqvlfsruhv +ru dw ohdvw lqfuhdvh wkhlu wruwxrvlw|, dqg vljql�fdqwo| uhgxfh wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwhv1 Vxjdu lv lghdo lq wkh vhqvh wkdw lw dovr irupv k|gurjhq erqghgvwuxfwxuhv/ wkxv/ fuhdwlqj d wljkw elqglqj ehwzhhq suhflslwdwhg vxjdu dqg k|gur0jhq erqg dffhswruv rq wkh lqrujdqlf +fhphqw ru djjuhjdwh, zdoov1 Wkh dgydqwdjhvdqg gudzedfnv ri vxfk d phwkrg duh zruwk wr eh lqyhvwljdwhg1

Dovr zlwk wkh SSWD sro|phulf phpeudqh/ wkdw h{klelwhg kljk udgrq0uhgxfwlrqh�flhqf|/ wkh fxelfdo2uhfwdqjxodu phwkrg wr ghwhuplqh wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwri udgrq lq frqfuhwh fdq qrz eh ydolgdwhg1 Wkh uhvxowv zrxog uhsuhvhqw d vhf0rqg yhul�fdwlrq rq wkh douhdg| ghwhuplqhg gdwd zlwk wkh f|olqgulfdo jhrphwu|phwkrg1

Dw wkh vwduw ri wklv zrun lw zdv nqrzq iurp wkh zrun ri Doghqndps dqgVwrrs ^47` wkdw uhyhuvlqj wkh �rz gluhfwlrq ri wkh yhqwlodwlrq frxog uhgxfh wkhlqgrru udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq e| dq rughu ri pdjqlwxgh1 Wklv lv d yhu| frvw0h�hfwlyhphdvxuh dv li wkh pdjqlwxgh ri wkh �rz lv wkh vdph/ wkh phdvxuh lv hqhujhwlfdoo|qhxwudo1 Lq wkh exloglqj lqgxvwu| wkh frxqwhu phdvxuh kdv ehhq uhfhlyhg zlwkvnhswlflvp/ dujxphqwhg e| zdwhu frqghqvdwlrqv lq wkh zlqgrz vloov1 Lq ylhz riodujh uhgxfwlrq wr eh rewdlqhg lw lv uhfrpphqghg wr lqyhvwljdwh wkh qdwxuh riwkh uhgxfwlrq surfhvv dqg/ li suryhq wr eh jhqhudo/ lqyhvwljdwh wkh ydolglw| ri wkhvnhswlflvp dqg wr vhh zkhwkhu wkh qhjdwlyh vlgh h�hfwv fdq eh uhpryhg1

Exloglqj xsrq wkh nqrzohgjh ghyhorshg lq wklv wkhvlv/ phdvxuhphqwv ri udgrquhohdvh iurp frqfuhwh pljkw dovr eh xvhg wr rewdlq lqirupdwlrq derxw wkh frqgl0wlrq ri frqfuhwh lq frqvwuxfwlrqv1 Zlwklq wkh frqfhsw ri vxvwdlqdeoh ghyhorsphqw/wkh gxudelolw| ri frqfuhwh frqvwuxfwlrqv ehfrphv lqfuhdvlqjo| lpsruwdqw ^45`1 Lqprvw lqvwdqfhv lw lv vwloo d0sulrul xqnqrzq ryhu zklfk wlph vsdq frqfuhwh frqvwuxf0wlrq hohphqwv nhhs wkhlu ixqgdphqwdo surshuwlhv qhhghg wr suhvhuyh wkh lqwhjulw|ri wkh frqvwuxfwlrq1 Lq0vlwx prqlwrulqj ri sdudphwhuv wkdw duh dvvrfldwhg zlwkwkhvh surshuwlhv lv riwhq xvhg wr rewdlq lqirupdwlrq rq wkh dfwxdo frqglwlrq riwkh frqfuhwh1 Hvshfldoo| lq fdvhv ri odujh frqvwuxfwlrqv olnh/ wxqqhov/ xqghujurxqgsdunlqj idflolwlhv/ eulgjhv/ k|gurhohfwulf gdpv hwf1/ d ghflvlrq rq uhsodfhphqw ru


uhphgldwlrq zloo kdyh d kxjh hfrqrplfdo lpsdfw1 Ixuwkhupruh/ iru prvw ri wkhvhfrqvwuxfwlrqv/ xqghwhfwhg gdpdjh zloo uhvxow lq d vljql�fdqw ulvn iru kxpdq vdihw|1Lq0vlwx frqglwlrq dvvhvvphqw ri frqfuhwh vkrxog wkhuhiruh eh yhu| uholdeoh1

Uhfhqwo|/ wkh surshuwlhv ri qhdu0vxuidfh frqfuhwh +fryhu0}rqh frqfuhwh> fryhu0fuhwh, kdyh ehhq lghqwl�hg dv ehlqj hvvhqwldo iru dvvhvvphqw ri gxudelolw| + ^:9`/^:3`,1 Qhdu0vxuidfh frqfuhwh dfwxdoo| lv wkh �uvw olqh ri ghihqfh djdlqvw dwwdfne| ghwhulrudwlrq phfkdqlvpv vxfk dv/ fkorulgh lqjuhvv/ fduerqdwlrq/ iuhh}lqj dqgwkdzlqj/ dondol0vlolfd uhdfwlrqv hwf1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ fkdqjhv lq wkh fryhu0}rqh frq0fuhwh duh wkh �uvw lqglfdwlrq ri srvvleoh idloxuh ri wkh frqvwuxfwlrq1 Prvw ri wkhghwhulrudwlrq phfkdqlvpv duh frqwuroohg e| wkh udwh dw zklfk ghohwhulrxv vxe0vwdqfhv fdq hqwhu wkh frqfuhwh ^4<`1 Lqirupdwlrq rq wkh wudqvsruw surshuwlhv riwkh qhdu0vxuidfh frqfuhwh lv wkxv hvvhqwldo wr hvwlpdwh wkh uhpdlqlqj vhuylfh olihri wkh vwuxfwxuh1

Erwk wkh jhqhudwlrq dqg wkh wudqvsruw ri udgrq lq frqfuhwh duh lqwulqvlfdoo|uhodwhg wr wkh frqfuhwh +plfur,vwuxfwxuh1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ wkh dprxqw ri udgrqwkdw h{kdohv iurp d fhuwdlq duhd ri d vxuidfh ri d frqfuhwh vwuxfwxuh lv d whoowdohri wkh frqglwlrq lqvlgh wkh vwuxfwxuh1 Pruhryhu/ gxh wr wkh olplwhg kdoi0olih riudgrq +61; gd|v, rqo| udgrq wkdw ruljlqdwhv iurp wkh qhdu0vxuidfh }rqh zloo kdyhwkh srvvlelolw| wr uhdfk +e| gl�xvlrq/ dgyhfwlrq hwf1, wkh vxuidfh ri wkh frqfuhwhfrqvwuxfwlrq1 Udgrq h{kdodwlrq prqlwrulqj lv wkxv hvshfldoo| vxlwdeoh wr dvvhvvwkh frqglwlrq ri fryhu0}rqh frqfuhwh1

Odvw exw qrw ohdvw/ zlwk wkh phwkrgv lqwurgxfhg lq wkh suhvhqw wkhvlv/ lwlv krshg wr ghyhors wkh ixwxuh ri udgrq uhvhdufk dv dq lqwhuglvflsolqdu| �hoghvshfldoo| lq frpelqdwlrq zlwk pdwhuldo vflhqfh dqg prohfxodu prghoolqj1

��

�?@*)|�U@* tL*�|�L?thiU|@?}�*@h

Vroxwlrqv iru Ht1 4314 zloo eh fdofxodwhg iru wkh fdvh ri krprjhqhrxv Glulfkohw+vhfwlrq D14, dqg pl{hg +vhfwlrq D15, erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv1 Iru erwk vlwxdwlrqv/d whfkqltxh suhylrxvo| hpsor|hg e| Fduvodz dqg Mdhjhu ^59` zloo eh xvhg1 Dffrug0lqj wr wklv phwkrg/ wkh vroxwlrq lq wkh q�glphqvlrqdo fdvh lv htxdo wr wkh vxpehwzhhq wkh vroxwlrq ri wkh +q� 4,�glphqvlrqdo fdvh zlwk krprjhqhrxv Glulfk0ohw erxqgdulhv dqg wkh vroxwlrq lq q�glphqvlrqv iru wkh krprjhqhrxv htxdwlrq1Wkxv/ rqh vwduwv zlwk wkh prvw vlpsoh vlwxdwlrq/ zkhq krprjhqhrxv Glulfkohwfrqglwlrqv duh lpsrvhg dw wkh erxqgdulhv/ iru d rqh0glphqvlrqdo +vhfwlrq D1414,/50glphqvlrqdo +vhfwlrq D1415, dqg 60glphqvlrqdo +vhfwlrq D1416, fdvh/ uhvshfwlyho|1Wkhvh vroxwlrqv zloo eh ixuwkhu xvhg iru wkh fdofxodwlrqv ri wkh rqh0glphqvlrqdo+vhfwlrq D1514,/ 50glphqvlrqdo +vhfwlrq D1515, dqg 60glphqvlrqdo +vhfwlrq D1516,vroxwlrqv lq wkh fdvh zlwk krprjhqhrxv pl{hg erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv1

Wr vlpsoli| wkh h{suhvvlrqv ri wkh vroxwlrqv/ zh gh�qh wkh iroorzlqj ixqfwlrq=

iSr+s> {, @ULt�ER%�3�t�?�ER%� = +D14,

584

585 Dqdo|wlfdo vroxwlrqv uhfwdqjxodu

�� OL4L}i?iL�t #�h�U�*i| ML�?_@h) UL?_�|�L?t

�� # tL*�|�L?

Iru d vwhdg|0vwdwh rqh0glphqvlrqdo �x{ zlwk d }hur udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq dw wkhwzr erxqgdulhv +{ @ 3 dqg { @ O%,/ Ht1 4314 ehfrphv=

GessY2��E%�Y%2

� �-?F�+{, . V @ 3> +D15d,

F�+3, @ 3> +D15e,

F�+O%, @ 3= +D15f,

zlwk V jlyhq e| Ht1 71661 Wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq lq wkh dlu �oohg sruhv ri wkhphglxp lv ghqrwhg khuh e| F�+{,1 Iurp wkh revhuydwlrqv wkdw wkh lqkrprjhqhrxvhtxdwlrq kdv wkh sduwlfxodu vroxwlrq

FR @7

b-?> +D16,

dqg wkh vroxwlrq ri wkh krprjhqhrxv htxdwlrq lv=

F�+{, @ d vlqk+n{, . e frvk+n{, +D17,

zlwk

n2 @ b-?(ess

> +D18,

wkh jhqhudo vroxwlrq wr Ht1 D15d fdq eh zulwwhq dv

F�+{, @7

b-?. d vlqk+n{, . e frvk+n{,= +D19,

Wkh frqvwdqwv d dqg e fdq eh irxqg e| vxevwlwxwlrq ri Ht1 D19 lq wkh erxqgdu|frqglwlrqv Ht1 D15e dqg Ht1 D15f/ �qdoo| ohdglqj wr=

F�+{, @7

b-?+4� frvk+n{, . iSr+n> O%, vlqk+n{,, +D1:,

zlwk iSr+n>O%, gh�qhg e| Ht1 D141Dsso|lqj Ht1 4316/ wkh wrwdo �x{ lq rqh0glphqvlrq/ Ue> frqvlvwv +ehfdxvh ri

v|pphwu|, ri wzr htxdo frqwulexwlrqv/ iurp wkh vxuidfhv srvlwlrqhg dw { @ 3 dqg{ @ O% +vhh Ilj1 4314,/ uhvshfwlyho|=

Ue @ 5U% @ 5u+Uf

u5Uf

Gess�Y��E%�Y% %'f

g| g} @

@ 5 O+O5Gessn7Kb-?

iSr+n>O%,= +D1;,

D14 Krprjhqhrxv Glulfkohw erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv 586

zlwk VK gh�qhg e| Ht1 71541 Iru d fxelfdo jhrphwu| +O% @ O+ @ O5 @ O,/wkh wrwdo uhohdvhg udgrq �x{ lq d rqh0glphqvlrqdo vlwxdwlrq zlwk krprjhqhrxvGlulfkohw erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv lv=

USe @ 5 O2Gessn

7Kb-?

iSr+n> O,= +D1<,

��2 2# tL*�|�L?

Lq wzr glphqvlrqv/ Ht1 4314 zlwk krprjhqhrxv Glulfkohw erxqgdu| frqglwlrqvzulwwhq lq whupv ri wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq lq wkh dlu �oohg sruh vsdfh/ F2+{> |,/lv jlyhq e|=

GessY2�2E%c+�

Y%2.Gess

Y2�2E%c+�Y+2

� �-?F2+{> |, . V @ 3 +D143d,

F2+{> 3, @ 3> 3 � { � O%> +D143e,

F2+3> |, @ 3> 3 � | � O+ > +D143f,

F2+{>O+, @ 3> 3 � { � O%> +D143g,

F2+O%> |, @ 3> 3 � | � O+= +D143h,

E| xvlqj wkh hduolhu phqwlrqhg whfkqltxh ri Fduvodz dqg Mdhjhu ^59`> wkh vroxwlrqri Ht1 D143d lv zulwwhq dv wkh vxp ri wkh rqh0glphqvlrqdo vroxwlrq/ F�+{, +Ht1 D1:,dqg wkh vroxwlrq fruuhvsrqglqj wr wkh krprjhqhrxv htxdwlrq/ F�+{> |,=

F2+{> |, @ F�+{, . F�+{> |,= +D144,

Wkh vroxwlrq ri wkh rqh0glphqvlrqdo fdvh ghdov zlwk wkh frqvwdqw V wkdw pdnhvHt1 D143d lqkrprjhqhrxv/ zkloh wkh 50glphqvlrqdo krprjhqhrxv htxdwlrq=

GessY2��E%c+�

Y%2.Gess

Y2��E%c+�Y+2

� �-?F�+{> |, @ 3> +D145d,

F�+{> 3, @ �F�+{,> 3 � { � O%> +D145e,

F�+{>O+, @ �F�+{,> 3 � { � O%> +D145f,

F�+3> |, @ 3> 3 � | � O+> +D145g,

F�+O%> |, @ 3> 3 � | � O+ = +D145h,

lv vroyhg e| d vroxwlrq ri wkh iroorzlqj irup=

F�+{> |, @"S?'f

+d? vlqk+�? |, . e? frvk+�? |,, vlq�?Zu%

{�> +D146,


zlwk

�2? @ n2 .�? Zu%

�2> q @ 3> 4> 5> === +D147,

Wr ghwhuplqh wkh xqnqrzq frqvwdqwv d? dqg e? zh surfhhg e| vxevwlwxwlqjHt1 D146 lq erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv Ht1 D145e dqg Ht1 D145f/ uhvxowlqj=

"S?'f

e? vlq�?Zu%

{�@ �F�+{,> +D148d,

"S?'f

+d? vlqk+�?O+, . e? frvk+�?O+,, vlq�?Zu%

{�@ �F�+{,= +D148e,

Wkhvh htxdolwlhv +l1h1/ Ht1 D148d dqg Ht1 D148e, uhpdlq xqdowhuhg dovr zkhqsurmhfwhg rq wkh vlq cgluhfwlrq*1 Ixuwkhupruh/ zkhq lqwhjudwhg zlwk uhvshfw wr{ iurp 3 wr O% dqg xvlqj wkh ruwkrjrqdolw| surshuw| +Ht1 F146, wkh iroorzlqjuhodwlrqv iurp zklfk wkh frh�flhqwv e? uhvshfwlyho| d? fdq eh ghwhuplqhg duhrewdlqhg=

e? @ � 2u%

] u%

fvlq

�?Zu%

{�F�+{, g{> +D149d,

d? @ �e? iSr+�?> O+,> +D149e,

zlwk iSr+�?> O+, gh�qhg e| Ht1 D141 Lqvhuwlqj wkh h{suhvvlrq iru F�+{, dqg xvlqjwkh lqwhjudov lq Ht1 F148 wr Ht1 F14: zh �qg wkh iroorzlqj h{suhvvlrq iru e?/

e? @ 5 7b-?

EE3��?3��?Z

&2

D2?= +D14:,

Vxevwlwxwlrq ri Ht1 D149e dqg Ht1 D14: lq Ht1 D146 dqg ri wkh odvw rqh wrjhwkhuzlwk Ht1 D1: lq Ht1 D144 �qdoo| ohdgv wr wkh vroxwlrq ri wkh 50glphqvlrqdo fdvhzlwk krprjhqhrxv Glulfkohw erxqgdulhv/

F2+{> |, @ 7b-?

i4� frvk+n{, . iSr+n>O%, vlqk+n{,�

�"S�'f

eE2�n��Z

&2

D22�n�vlq

�E2�n��Z

u%{�^frvk+�2�n� |,�

�iSr+�2�n�> O+, vlqk+�2�n� |,`j= +D14;,

Wr vlpsoli| wkh pdwkhpdwlfdo h{suhvvlrq ri wkh frh�flhqw e?/ wkh lqgh{ q zdvvxevwlwxwhg e| 5m . 41 Wklv vxevwlwxwlrq grhv qrw dowhu wkh fruuhfwqhvv ri wkhvroxwlrq F2+{> |, ehfdxvh ri wkh suhvhqfh ri wkh vlqxv ixqfwlrq wkdw zrxog dq|krz

D14 Krprjhqhrxv Glulfkohw erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv 588

vhohfw dv frqwulexwlrq wr wkh vxp rqo| wkh whupv fruuhvsrqglqj wr dq hyhq ydoxhri q1

Dvvxplqj djdlq wkdw U%'f @ U%'u% =

U% @ 5Gess7Kb-?

#n O+O5iSr+n>O%,�

u5u%

"S�'f

H&2

D�2�n�iSr+�2�n�> O+,

$= +D14<,

dqg wkh vdph iru wkh | gluhfwlrq +vhh Ilj1 4314,=

U+ @ 5Gess7Kb-?

u%u5Z2

"S�'f

H&2

D2�n�

sSrED2�n�cu+�E2�n��2

> +D153,

wkh wrwdo �x{/ U2/ zloo eh/ iroorzlqj vrph vlpsoh fdofxodwlrqv/=

U2 @ 5Gess7Kb-?

#n O+O5iSr+n> O%, .

u%u5Z2

"S�'f

H&e

D�2�n�


$+D154,

Iru d fxelfdo jhrphwu| O% @ O+ @ O5 @ O dqg wkxv/ iurp Ht1 D154 wkh wrwdo �x{zloo eh=

US2 @ 5Gess

7Kb-?

O2

#n iSr+n>O, .

"S�'f

H&e

D�2�n�

sSrED2�n� cu�E2�n��2Z2

$= +D155,

�� # tL*�|�L?

Zlwk wkh vroxwlrq ri wkh 50glphqvlrqdo fdvh/ F2+{> |,/ jlyhq e| Ht1 D14;/ wkhvroxwlrq iru wkh 60glphqvlrqdo htxdwlrq zlwk krprjhqhrxv erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv

GessY2��E%c+c5�

Y%2.Gess

Y2��E%c+c5�Y+2

.GessY2��E%c+c5�

Y52�

��-?F�+{> |> }, . V @ 3> +D156d,

F�+3> |> }, @ 3> 3 � | � O+ > 3 � } � O5 > +D156e,

F�+O%> |> }, @ 3> 3 � | � O+ > 3 � } � O5 > +D156f,

F�+{> 3> }, @ 3> 3 � { � O%> 3 � } � O5 > +D156g,

F�+{>O+> }, @ 3> 3 � { � O%> 3 � } � O5 > +D156h,

F�+{> |> 3, @ 3> 3 � { � O%> 3 � | � O+ > +D156i,

F�+{> |>O5, @ 3> 3 � { � O%> 3 � | � O+ = +D156j,


lv +vhh vhfwlrq D1415, ri wkh irup=

F�+{> |> }, @ F2+{> |, .F�+{> |> },= +D157,

F�+{> |> }, zloo eh fdofxodwhg iurp wkh krprjhqhrxv htxdwlrq/

GessY2��E%c+c5�

Y%2.Gess

Y2��E%c+c5�Y+2

.GessY2��E%c+c5�

Y52�

� �-?F�+{> |> }, @ 3> +D158d,

F�+3> |> }, @ 3> 3 � | � O+ > 3 � } � O5 > +D158e,

F�+O%> |> }, @ 3> 3 � | � O+ > 3 � } � O5 > +D158f,

F�+{> 3> }, @ 3> 3 � { � O%> 3 � } � O5 > +D158g,

F�+{>O+ > }, @ 3> 3 � { � O%> 3 � } � O5 > +D158h,

F�+{> |> 3, @ �F2+{> |,> 3 � { � O%> 3 � | � O+ > +D158i,

F�+{> |>O5, @ �F2+{> |,> 3 � { � O%> 3 � | � O+= +D158j,

e| orrnlqj iru d vroxwlrq ri wkh w|sh=

F�+{> |> }, @"S

?c6'f^+d?6 vlqk+�?6}, . e?6 frvk+�?6},,�

� vlq�?Zu%{�vlq

�6Zu+

|�l

+D159,

zlwk

�2?6 @ n2 .�?Zu%

�2.�6Zu+

�2> q>p @ 3> 4> 5> === +D15:,

Vxevwlwxwlqj Ht1 D159 lq Htv1 D158i dqg D158j=

"S?c6'f

e?6 vlq+?Zu% {, vlq+6Zu+

|, @ �F2+{> |,> +D15;,

"S?c6'f

^+d?6 vlqk+�?6O5, . e?6 frvk+�?6O5,,�

� vlq+?Zu% {, vlq+6Zu+

|,l@ �F2+{> |,= +D15<,

wkh frqvwdqwv d?6 dqg e?6 fdq eh ghwhuplqhg dv=

e?6 @ � eu%u+

u%Uf

u+Uf

vlq+?Zu%{, vlq+6Zu+

|,F2+{> |, g{ g|> +D163,

d?6 @ �e?6 iSr+�?6> O5,= +D164,

D14 Krprjhqhrxv Glulfkohw erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv 58:

zlwk iSr+�?6> O5, gh�qhg e| Ht1 D141 Shuiruplqj wkh lqwhjudwlrq/ xvlqj uhvxowvri Htv1 F148 wr F14: dqg wkh ruwkrjrqdolw| uhodwlrq Ht1 F146/ vrph whglrxv exwvwudljkwiruzdug dojheud ohdgv wr=

e?6 @ �2K?6Z ++�4,

6 � 4,

#&2n

�?Zu%

�2

&2n�?Zu%

�2n�6Zu+

�2

$@

@ 2 K?6Z +4� +�4,6, D2?

D2?6= +D165,

Ixuwkhupruh/ vxevwlwxwlrq ri e? iurp Ht1 D14: jlyhv wkh h{solflw h{suhvvlrq irue?6=

e?6 @ � 7b-?

2E�3E3��?�?Z

2E�3E3��6�6Z

&2

&2n�?Zu%

�2n�6Zu+

�2 @

@ � 7b-?

2E�3E3��?�?Z

2E�3E3��6�6Z

&2

D2?6= +D166,

Wklv odvw h{suhvvlrq wrjhwkhu zlwk Ht1 D164/ Ht1 D159 dqg Ht1 D14; uhsodfhg lqHt1 D157 �qdoo| ohdgv wr=

F�+{> |> k, @7

b-?i4� frvk+n{, . iSr+n>O%, vlqk+n{,�

�"S�'f

�e

E2�n��Z&2

D22�n�vlq

�E2�n��Z

u%{�+frvk+�2�n� |,�

�iSr+�2�n�> O+, vlqk+�2�n� |,,��

"S�cR'f

ke

E2�n��Ze

E2Rn��Z�

� &2

D22�n�c 2Rn�vlq

�E2�n��Z

u%{�vlq

�E2Rn��Z

u+|�+frvk+�2�n�c 2Rn� },�

�iSr+�2�n�c 2Rn� > O5, vlqk+�2�n�c 2Rn� },,` = +D167,

Djdlq/ wkh �x{ lq wkh { gluhfwlrq lv=

U% @ 5Gess7Kb-?

%nO+O5iSr+n>O%,�

u5u%

"S�'f

H&2

D�2�n�

iSr+�2�n�> O+,�

�u+u%

"S�cR'f

Se&2

E2Rn��2Z2sSrED2�n�c 2Rn� cu5�

D�2�n�c 2Rn�

&> +D168,

58; Dqdo|wlfdo vroxwlrqv uhfwdqjxodu

wkh �x{ lq wkh | gluhfwlrq lv=

U+ @ 5Gess7Kb-?

%u%u5Z2

"S�'f

H&2

D2�n�


�

�u%u+

"S�cR'f

Se&2

D�2�n�c 2Rn�Z2

sSrED2�n�c 2Rn� cu5�E2�n��2

&> +D169,

dqg lq wkh } gluhfwlrq lv=

U5 @ 5Gess7Kb-?

u%u+Ze

"S�cR'f

Se&2

D2�n�c 2Rn�

sSrED2�n�c 2Rn� cu5�E2�n��2E2Rn��2

= +D16:,

Vxpplqj wkh odvw wkuhh htxdwlrqv +Ht1 D168 wr Ht1 D16:,/ wkh wrwdo �x{ zloo eh+vhh dovr Ilj1 4314,=

Uf @ 5Gess7Kb-?

%n O+O5iSr+n> O%, .

u%u5Z2

"S�'f

H&e

D�2�n�

sSrED2�n�cu+�E2�n��2 .

.u%u+Ze

"S�cR'f

Se&e


sSrED2�n�c 2Rn� cu5�E2Rn��2E2�n��2

&= +D16;,

Iru d fxelfdo vdpsoh/ e| lpsrvlqj O% @ O+ @ O5 @ O lq Ht1 D16;/ wkh devroxwhydoxh ri wkh exon �x{ lv jlyhq e|=

USf @ 5Gess

7Kb-?

%n O2iSr+n>O, .

u2

Z2

"S�'f

H&e

D�2�n�

sSrED2�n�cu�E2�n��2

.

.u2

Ze

"S�cR'f

Se&e


sSrED2�n�c 2Rn� cu�E2Rn��2E2�n��2

&= +D16<,

��2 OL4L}i?iL�t 4� i_ ML�?_@h) UL?_�|�L?t

Zlwk yhu| ihz gl�huhqfhv/ wkh vdph surfhgxuh dv iru wkh fdvh ri krprjhqhrxvGlulfkohw erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv fdq eh dssolhg wr fdofxodwh wkh vroxwlrqv iru wkhfdvh ri krprjhqhrxv pl{hg erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv1 Pl{hg erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv duhgh�qhg e| d frpelqdwlrq ri krprjhqhrxv frqglwlrqv +zkhuh/ dw wkh erxqgdulhv/wkh frqfhqwudwlrq lv }hur, dqg Qhxpdqq frqglwlrqv +phdqlqj wkdw wkh �x{ dw wkherxqgdulhv ydqlvkhv,1

D15 Krprjhqhrxv pl{hg erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv 58<

��2�� # tL*�|�L?

Ht1 4314 iru wkh fdvh ri pl{hg erxqgdulhv lv jlyhq e|=

GessY2��SE%�

Y%2� �-?F�S+{, . V @ 3> +D173d,

F�S+3, @ 3> +D173e,

Y��SEu%�Y% @ 3= +D173f,

Vlplodu wr wkh ghulydwlrq lq vhfwlrq D1414/ wkh vroxwlrq wr Ht1 D173d lv rewdlqhgdv=

F�S+{, @7

b-?+4� frvk+n{, . wdqk+nO%, vlqk+n{,, +D174,

zlwk n gh�qhg e| Ht1 D181

Wkh wrwdo �x{/ UD/ ruljlqdwhv rqo| iurp rqh vlqjoh vlgh/ l1h1 wkh rqh srvlwlrqhgdw { @ 3=

UD @ U%'f @ �u+Uf

u5Uf

Gess�Y��SE%�

Y% %'fg| g} @

@ O+O5Gess7Kb-?

n wdqk +nO%, = +D175,

Iru d fxelfdo jhrphwu|/ wkh htxdwlrq deryh ehfrphv=

USD @ O2Gess

7Kb-?

n wdqk +nO, = +D176,

��2�2 2# tL*�|�L?

Wkh vroxwlrq F2S+{> |,/ ri Ht1 4314 zulwwhq iru wkh 50glphqvlrqdo fdvh zlwk krpr0jhqhrxv pl{hg erxqgdulhv +wkuhh rshq erxqgdulhv dw { @ 3/ { @ O% dqg | @ 3/uhvshfwlyho| dqg qr �x{ dw wkh | @ O+ erxqgdu|,=

GessY2�2SE%c+�

Y%2.Gess

Y2�2SE%c+�Y+2

� �-?F2S+{> |, . V @ 3> +D177,

F2S+{> 3, @ 3> 3 � { � O%> +D178,

F2S+3> |, @ 3> 3 � | � O+> +D179,Y�2SE%cu+�

Y% @ 3> 3 � { � O%> +D17:,

F2S+O%> |, @ 3> 3 � | � O+ = +D17;,


lv fdofxodwhg zlwk wkh vdph whfkqltxh dv lq vhfwlrq D1415/

F2S+{> |, @ F�+{, .F�+{> |,= +D17<,

Khuh/ F�+{, lv wkh vroxwlrq ri wkh rqh0glphqvlrqdo fdvh zlwk Glulfkohw erxqgdu|frqglwlrqv +Ht1 D15d, dqg F�+{> |, wkh vroxwlrq ri wkh krprjhqhrxv htxdwlrq=

GessY2��E%c+�

Y%2.Gess

Y2��E%c+�Y+2

� �-?F�+{> |, @ 3> +D183d,

F�+{> 3, @ �F�+{,> 3 � { � O%> +D183e,

F�+3> |, @ 3> 3 � | � O+> +D183f,Y��E%cu+�

Y+ @ 3> 3 � { � O%> +D183g,

F�+O%> |, @ 3> 3 � | � O+= +D183h,

Wkh jhqhudo vroxwlrq wr Ht1 D183d lv ri wkh irup jlyhq e| Ht1 D1461 Zlwk wkhqhz erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv +Ht1 D183e dqg Ht1 D183g,/ wkh frqvwdqwv d? dqg e?duh ghwhuplqhg/ vlplodu wr vhfwlrq D1415=

e? @ � 2u%

u%Uf

vlq+?Zu% {,F�+{,g{ @ 5 7b-?

EE3��?3��?Z

&2

D2?> +D184,

d? @ �e? wdqk+�?O+,= +D185,

Wkh �qdo vroxwlrq/ Ht1 D17</ lv=

F2S+{> |, @7

b-?^4� frvk+n{, . iSr+n>O%, vlqk+n{,�

�"S�'f

eE2�n��Z

&2

D22�n�

vlq�E2�n��Z

u%{��

��frvk+�2�n� |,� wdqk+�2�n� O+, vlqk+�2�n� |,

��+D186,

zlwk iSr+n>O%, gh�qhg e| Ht1 D141 Wkh �x{ U% iurp wkh vxuidfhv dw { @ 3 dqg{ @ O% lv jlyhq e|=

U% @ U%'f @ U%'u% @u+Uf

u5Uf

Gess�Y�2E%c+�

Y% %'fg| g}= +D187,

Vlqfh rq wkh | gluhfwlrq wkh Qhxpdqq frqglwlrq dw | @ O+ lv lqwurgxflqj dq

dv|pphwu|/ wkh wrwdo �x{ rq wklv gluhfwlrq lv jlyhq rqo| e| wkh �x{ wkurxjk wkhvxuidfh srvlwlrqhg dw | @ 3=

U @ U+'f @u%Uf

u5Uf

Gess�Y�2E%c+�

Y+ +'fg{ g}= +D188,

D15 Krprjhqhrxv pl{hg erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv 594

Wkh wrwdo �x{/ U�/ lv wkhq rewdlqhg dv=

U� @ 5U% .U+

@ Gess7Kb-?

^5n O+O5iSr+n>O%,.

.u%u5Z2

"S�'f

H&e

D�2�n�

|@?�ED2�n� u+�

E2�n��2

&+D189,

Zkhq O% @ O+ @ O5 @ O/ Ht1 D189 vlpso| ehfrphv=

US� @ Gess

7Kb-?

%5n O2iSr+n>O, .

u2

Z2

"S�'f

H&e

D�2�n�

|@?�ED2�n� u�

E2�n��2

&= +D18:,

��2�� # tL*�|�L?

Pl{hg erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv iru Ht1 4314 lq wkh 60glphqvlrqdo fdvh lpso| qr �x{wkurxjk rqh idfh ri wkh vdpsoh +} @ O5,=

GessY2��SE%c+c5�

Y%2.Gess

Y2��SE%c+c5�Y+2

.GessY2��SE%c+c5�

Y52�

� �-?F�S+{> |> }, . V @ 3> +D18;d,

F�S+3> |> }, @ 3> 3 � | � O+> 3 � } � O5 > +D18;e,

F�S+O%> |> }, @ 3> 3 � | � O+> 3 � } � O5 > +D18;f,

F�S+{> 3> }, @ 3> 3 � { � O%> 3 � } � O5 > +D18;g,

F�S+{>O+ > }, @ 3> 3 � { � O%> 3 � } � O5 > +D18;h,

F�S+{> |> 3, @ 3> 3 � { � O%> 3 � | � O+> +D18;i,Y��SE%c+cu5�

Y5 @ 3> 3 � { � O%> 3 � | � O+ = +D18;j,

Wkh vroxwlrq=

F�+{> |> }, @ F2+{> |, . F�+{> |> },> +D18<,


lv wkh vxp ri F2+{> |, +Ht1 D14;, dqg ri F�+{> |> }, wkdw vroyhv wkh krprjhqhrxvhtxdwlrq=

GessY2��Y%2

.GessY2��Y+2

.GessY2��Y52

� �F� @ 3> +D193d,

F�+3> |> }, @ 3> 3 � | � O+ > 3 � } � O5 > +D193e,

F�+O%> |> }, @ 3> 3 � | � O+ > 3 � } � O5 > +D193f,

F�+{> 3> }, @ 3> 3 � { � O%> 3 � } � O5 > +D193g,

F�+{>O+ > }, @ 3> 3 � { � O%> 3 � } � O5 > +D193h,

F�+{> |> 3, @ �F2+{> |,> 3 � { � O%> 3 � | � O+ > +D193i,

Y��E%c+cu5�Y5 @ 3> 3 � { � O%> 3 � | � O+= +D193j,

Vlplodu fdofxodwlrqv dv lq vhfwlrq D1416 ohdg wr=

F�+{> |> }, @"S

?c6'f+d?6 vlqk+�?6}, . e?6 frvk+�?6},,�

� vlq�?Zu%{�vlq

�6Zu+

|�> +D194,

zlwk �?6 dv gh�qhg lq Ht1 D15: dqg d?6 dqg e?6 jlyhq e|=

e?6 @ � 7b-?

2E�3E3��?�?Z

2E�3E3��6�6Z

&2

&2n�?Zu%

�2n�6Zu+

�2 @

@ �7b2E�3E3��?�

?Z2E�3E3��6�

6Z&2

D2?6> +D195,

d?6 @ �e?6 wdqk+�?6O5,= +D196,

Xvlqj wkhvh h{suhvvlrqv lq Ht1 D194 dqg Ht1 D18< +zkhuh/ djdlq/ wkh lqglfhv qdqg p zkhuh vxevwlwxwhg e| 5m . 4 dqg 5s. 4/ uhvshfwlyho|, ohdgv wr=

F�+{> |> k, @7

b-?

%4� frvk+n{, . iSr+n>O%, vlqk+n{,�

"S�'f

eE2�n��Z

&2

D22�n��

� +frvk+�2�n� |,� iSr+�2�n�> O+, vlqk+�2�n� |,, vlq�E2�n��Z

u%{��

�"S

�cR'f

eE2�n��Z

eE2Rn��Z

&2

D22�n�c 2Rn�vlq

�E2�n��Z

u%{�vlq

�E2Rn��Z

u+|��

� +frvk +�2�n�c 2Rn�},� wdqk +�2�n�c2Rn�O5, vlqk +�2�n�c 2Rn�},,` >

+D197,

D15 Krprjhqhrxv pl{hg erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv 596

zlwk wkh ixqfwlrq iSr gh�qhg e| Ht1 D141 Wkh exon �x{hv iurp wkh vxuidfhvdw { @ 3 dqg { @ O% frqwulexwh wr wkh wrwdo exon �x{ U% rq wkh { gluhfwlrq=

U% @ 5Gess7Kb-?

%n O+O5iSr+n>O%,�

u5u%

"S�'f

H&2

D�2�n�iSr+�2�n�> O+,�

� u+u%Z2

"S�cR'f

�2&2


|@?�ED2�n�c 2Rn� u5�E2Rn��2

&= +D198,

Vlplodu/ rq wkh | gluhfwlrq/ wkh wrwdo exon �x{ lv jhqhudwhg iurp wkh vxuidfhv dw| @ 3 dqg | @ O+ / uhvshfwlyho|/ vxfk dv=

U+ @ 5Gess7Kb-?

%u%u5Z2

"S�'f

H&2

D2�n�


�

� u%u+Z2

"S�cR'f

�2&2


|@?�ED2�n�c 2Rn� u5�E2�n��2

&= +D199,

Ehfdxvh ri wkh Qhxpdqq frqglwlrq dw } @ O5 / wkh �x{ rq } gluhfwlrq lv rqo| jlyhqe| wkh frqwulexwlrq ri wkh idfh srvlwlrqhg dw } @ 3=

U5'f @ 5Gess7Kb-?

u%u+Ze

"S�cR'f

�2&2

D2�n�c 2Rn�

|@?�ED2�n�c 2Rn� u5�E2�n��2E2Rn��2

= +D19:,

Wkxv/ iru wkh fdvh ri 60glphqvlrqdo vlwxdwlrq zlwk pl{hg erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv/wkh wrwdo exon �x{/ U�/ lv gh�qhg dv=

U� @ 5U%'f . 5U+'f .U5'f @ U% .U+ .U5'f @

@ 5Gess7Kb-?

%n O+O5iSr+n>O%, .

u%u5Z2

"S�'f

H&e

D�2�n�

sSrED2�n� cu+�E2�n��2

.

.u%u+Ze

"S�cR'f

�2&e


|@?�ED2�n�c 2Rn� u5�E2�n��2E2Rn��2

&= +D19;,

Iru wkh fdvh ri d fxelfdo +O% @ O+ @ O5 @ O, jhrphwu| h{suhvvlrq Ht1 D19; fdqeh vlpsol�hg wr=

US� @ 5Gess

7Kb-?

%n O2iSr+n>O, .

u2

Z2

"S�'f

H&e

D�2�n�

sSrED2�n�cu�E2�n��2

.

.u2

Ze

"S�cR'f

�2&e


|@?�ED2�n�c 2Rn� u�E2�n��2E2Rn��2

&= +D19<,


�� Ah�?U@|�L? ihhLh

Wr hvwlpdwh qxphulfdoo| wkh ydoxhv ri wkh dqdo|wlfdo vroxwlrqv rewdlqhg iru wkhudgrq uhohdvh udwhv dv fdofxodwhg iurp Ht1 4314 iru krprjhqhrxv Glulfkohw rupl{hg erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv/ wkh vlpsoh ru grxeoh lq�qlwh Irxulhu vhulhv qhhg wreh wuxqfdwhg xs wr d fhuwdlq qxpehu ri whupv1 Wkh vshhg ri frqyhujhqfh dqg wkhvhulhv wuxqfdwlrq huuru lv dqdo|vhg iru wkh iroorzlqj uhohdvh udwhv= Uf>U�>U2>U�

+qr Irxulhu vhulhv rffxu lq wkh rwkhu wzr vroxwlrqv/ Ue dqg UD,/ xvlqj d whfkqltxhvlplodu wr wkh rqh hpsor|hg e| Ulehlur ^444`1 Wkh plqlpxp qxpehu ri whupvlq wkhvh vxpv +Q, lv ghwhuplqhg iru hdfk vroxwlrq vxfk wkdw wkh huuru lv vpdoohuwkdq d fhuwdlq ydoxh +huu,1

Dvvxplqj wkdw iru Ht1 D154/ U2 lv wuxqfdwhg lq wkh irup=

U2 @ Gess7Kb-?

#5n O+O5iSr+n>O%, .

u%u5Z2

��S�'f

�S&e

D�2�n�


$> +D1:3,

wkh wuxqfdwlrq huuru/ huuU2 lv wkhq=

huuU2 @(ess7Kb-?

u%u5Z2

"S�'��

�S&e

D�2�n�


= +D1:4,

Vlqfh iSr+�2�n�> O+, +Ht1 D14, lv srvlwlyh iru �2�n�O+ � 3 dqg wkh ixqfwlrq lvlqfuhdvlqj +lwv �uvw ghulydwlyh lv srvlwlyh,/ lw iroorzv wkdw=

iSr+�2�n�> O+, @ULt�ED2�n�u+�3�t�?�ED2�n�u+�

? 4> �2�n�O+ � 3= +D1:5,

Wkh huuru wkhuhiruh vdwlv�hv wkh iroorzlqj lqhtxdolw|=

huuU2 �(ess7Kb-?

u%u5Z2

"S�'��

�S&e

D�2�n� E2�n��2@

@ 2e&eu%u5Z2

(ess7Kb-?

"S�'��

�E2�n��2

��&2n

E2�n��Zu%

��*2 = +D1:6,

Iru wklv vhulhv zh fdq �qg dq xsshu olplw xvlqj F147 dv iroorzv=

��&2n

E2�n��Zu%

��*2 � ��2&

E2�n��Zu%

��*2 +D1:7,

wkxv/

huuU2 �(ess7Kb-?

O5

t2D&DuD

%Z.

"S�'��

�

E2�n��.*2= +D1:8,

D16 Wuxqfdwlrq huuru 598

Lpsrvlqj wkdw wkh uhvw vkrxog kdyh dq devroxwh ydoxh ri mhuuU2m � huu/ wkhlqhtxdolw| deryh +Ht1 D1:8, fdq eh uhzulwwhq dv=

(ess7Kb-?

O5

t2D&DuD

%Z.

"S�'��

�

E2�n��.*2� huu> +D1:9,

dqg xvlqj iru wkh vxp wkdw=

S�

�E2Rn��.*2

?

+�D > 3 � s �4

�D

�

E2��3��D*2> Q� � s �4 = +D1::,

wkh plqlpxp qxpehu ri whupv lq wkh dssur{lpdwhg vxp kdv wr eh=

Q� @ 3=8 . 3=44 n O%

�u5(ess7Kb-?eoo

�2*D+D1:;,

Dqdorjrxv wr U2/ wkh plqlpxp qxpehu ri whupv iru wuxqfdwlqj

U� @ Gess7Kb-?

%5n O+O5iSr+n>O%, .

u%u5Z2

�2S�'f

H&e

D�2�n�

|@?�ED2�n� u+�

E2�n��2

&> +D1:<,

lv ghwhuplqhg e| lpsrvlqj wkh frqglwlrq=

huuU� @(ess7Kb-?

u%u5Z2

"S�'�2

H&e

D�2�n�

|@?�ED2�n� u+�

E2�n��2�

�(ess7Kb-?

u%u5Z2

"S�'�2

H&e

E2�n��2D�2�n�

@ huu> +D1;3,

zkhuh wkh idfw wkdw wkh ixqfwlrq wdqk+{, lv lqfuhdvlqj 0lwv �uvw ghulydwlyh lvsrvlwlyh0 dqg srvlwlyh iru { � 3 vxfk wkdw lwv ydoxhv zloo eh i+{, @ wdqk+{, ? 4iru doo { � 3 zdv xvhg1 Zh rewdlq=

Q2 @ 3=8 . 3=3; n O%

�u5(ess7Kb-?eoo

�2*D= +D1;4,

Wkh dssur{lpdwhg Uf +wkh prvw jhqhudo fdvh lv zkhq wkh qxpehu ri whupv lq wkhwuxqfdwhg vxpv Q �

�>Q� dqg S� duh gl�huhqw iurp hdfk rwkhu, lv=

Uf @ Gess7Kb-?

%5n O+O5iSr+n>O%, .

u%u5Z2

� ��S

�'f

�S&e

D�2�n�


.u%u+Ze

��S�'f

��SR'f

�2H&e


sSrED2�n�c 2Rn� u5�E2�n��2E2Rn��2

&+D1;5,


Zh lpsrvh wkdw iru hdfk ri wkh vxpv wkh huuru vkrxog eh=

mhuuUf�m � huu> +D1;6,

mhuuUf2m � huu= +D1;7,

Iru vlpsolflw|/ lq wklv suhvhqw dqdo|vlv zh zloo vhw Q� htxdo wr S�1 Zh fdq wkhqzulwh=

mhuuUf�m @(ess7Kb-?

"S�'� ��

�

�S&e

D�2�n�

u%u5E2�n��2Z2

iSr+�2�n�> O+, +D1;8,

mhuuUf2m @ frqvw

#"S

�cR'f{�cR �

��S�cR'f

{�cR

$+D1;9,

zkhuh wkh iroorzlqj qrwdwlrqv zhuh xvhg=

{�cR @ �E2�n��2

�E2Rn��2

�D�2�n�c 2Rn�

iSr+�2�n�c 2Rn� O5,> +D1;:,

frqvw @(ess7Kb-?

�2Hu%u+&e

Ze= +D1;;,

Wkh �uvw whup lq Ht1 D1;8 lv wkh vdph dv lq wkh U2 vroxwlrq vxfk wkdw wkh vdphplqlpxp qxpehu ri whupv +Ht1 D1:;, kdv wr eh frqvlghuhg1 Wkh huuru lq wkhvhfrqg whup ri wkh vxp D1;9 lv=

mhuuUf2m @ frqvw

#"S

�cR'f{�cR �

��S�cR'f

{�cR

$+D1;<,

� frqvw

#"S�'f

"SR'��

{�cR ."S

�'��

"SR'f

{�cR

$+D1<3,

zlwk wkh frqvwdqw lq iurqw gh�qhg e| Ht1D1;;1 Dsso|lqj djdlq Ht1D1:5 dqgHt1F147/ lw iroorzv wkdw=

mhuuUf2m � �

#"S�'f

�E2�n��*e

"SR'�e

�E2Rn��.*2

."S

�'�e

�E2�n��*e

"SR'f

�E2Rn��.*2

$>

+D1<4,

zlwk � @(ess7Kb-?

2�b*e&��*eu.*e% u

D*2+

Z2D.e1 Xvlqj Ht1D1:: dqg=

S�

�E2�n��*e

?

+2. > 3 � m �4

2.

�

E2�e3��.*e> Qe � m �4 > +D1<5,

D16 Wuxqfdwlrq huuru 59:

wkh plqlpxp qxpehu ri whupv lq wkh grxeoh Irxulhu vhulhv lv=

Q� @ 3=8 . 3=35 n��*.O%O�f*.+

�(ess7Keoo b-?

�e*.= +D1<6,

Iru wkh U� uhohdvh udwh=

U� @(ess7Kb-?

%5nO+O5iSr+n>O%, .

u%u5Z2

� ��S

�'f

�S&e

D�2�n�


.

.u+u%Ze

�eS�'f

�eSR'f

Se&e


|@?�ED2�n�c 2Rn� u5�E2�n��2E2Rn��2

&> +D1<7,

wkh qxpehu ri whupv lq wkh wuxqfdwhg vxp +djdlq lpsrvlqj iru wkh fdvh ri wkhgrxeoh Irxulhu vhulhv wkdw Qe @ Se, lv qrz hdv| wr ghwhuplqh1 Djdlq/ wkh frqgl0wlrqv=

mhuuU��m � huu> +D1<8,

mhuuU�2m � huu> +D1<9,

duh lpsrvhg iru wkh huuruv1 Iru wkh �uvw vxp/ djdlq/ wkh plqlpxp qxpehu wkdwkdyh wr eh frqvlghuhg zkhq frpsxwlqj lw lv Q�+Ht1 D1:;,1 Wkh odvw whup lq U�

frqwdlqv wkh ixqfwlrq j+{, @ wdqk{ wkdw/ iru { � 3 lv=

j+{, � 4= +D1<:,

Zh kdyh wkdw=

mhuuU�2m �(ess7Kb-?

Se&eu%u+Ze

#�eS�'f

"SR'�e

{�cR �"S

�'�e

"SR'f

{�cR

$= +D1<;,

zlwk {�cR @�

E2�n��2E2Rn��2D�2�n�c 2Rn�1

Iroorzlqj wkh frpsxwdwlrqv iurp wkh suhylrxv fdvh +vhh Ht1 D1<4,/ wkh iroorz0lqj h{suhvvlrq iru Qe lv rewdlqhg=

Qe @ 3=8 . 3=34 n��*.O% O�f*.+

�(ess7Keoo b-?

�e*.= +D1<<,

Qrz wkdw zh fdq frpsxwh iru d fhuwdlq ydoxh ri wkh huuru +huu, wkh plqlpxpqxpehu ri whupv lq wkh wuxqfdwhg vxpv iru wkh udgrq uhohdvh udwhv/ zh fdq dovr

59; Dqdo|wlfdo vroxwlrqv uhfwdqjxodu

pdnh dq hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh huuru +xvlqj Ht1 F15;, zlwk zklfk wkh udwlrv -?-f

zlooeh ghwhuplqhg1 Dvvxplqj wkdw=

huuU? @ huuUf @ huu> +D1433,

zh rewdlq=

huu-?-f

@ --f

u4 .

�-?-f

�2= +D1434,

Dv doo udwlrv kdyh ydoxhv lq wkh udqjh 3 � -?-f

� 4> wkh iroorzlqj dssur{lpdwlrqfdq eh pdgh=

huu-?-f

�I2eoo-f

= +D1435,

Wkh ydoxhv ri Q�>Q2> Q� dqg Qe wrjhwkhu zlwk wkdw ri wkh udgrq uhohdvh udwhiru wkh 60glphqvlrqdo fdvh zlwk krprjhqhrxv Glulfkohw erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv/ Uf/dqg dq hvwlpdwlrq ri wkh huuru iru wkh -?

-fudwlr*v duh olvwhg lq Wdeoh D14 dv ixqfwlrq

ri wkh h�hfwlyh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw iru wkuhh gl�huhqw jhrphwulhv/ frqvlghulqj wkdwwkh phglxp lv frqfuhwh dqg kdv d exon surgxfwlrq udwh ri VK @ 3=34< Etp3� v3�

+zlwk VK gh�qhg e| Ht1 7154/ wkh ydoxhv iru wkh dyhudjh exon ghqvlw|/ udglxp dfwly0lw| frqfhqwudwlrq dqg hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqw ehlqj wkrvh lqglfdwhg lq vhfwlrq ;15,=

41 iru d vdpsoh ri uhfwdqjxodu vkdsh zlwk O% 9@ O+ 9@ O5 > O% @ 4 p> O+ @5 p> O5 @ 6 p>

51 iru d vdpsoh zlwk= O% @ O5 9@ O+ > O% @ O5 @ 3=4 p> O+ @ 3=8 p>61 iru d vdpsoh ri fxelfdo jhrphwu|= O% @ O+ @ O5 @ 3=48 p1Lw fdq eh vhhq wkdw wkh qxpehu ri whupv qhhghg iru dfklhylqj wkh ghvluhg wuxq0

fdwlrq huuru lqfuhdvhv iru vpdoo ydoxhv ri wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw dqg hvshfldoo|iru wkh fdvh ri wkh grxeoh Irxulhu vhulhv1 Krzhyhu/ lw vkrxog qrw eh irujrwwhq wkdwwkhvh qxpehuv uhsuhvhqw dq ryhuhvwlpdwlrq +xsshu olplw, iru wkh dprxqw ri whupvwkdw kdyh wr eh frqvlghuhg zkhq fdofxodwlqj wkh udgrq uhohdvh udwhv/ U?/ zlwkwkh ghvluhg huuru/ huu1 Iru h{dpsoh/ lq rxu qxphulfdo frpsxwdwlrqv lq Pdwkh0

pdwlfd 613/ lq dyhudjh/ d qxpehu ri 583 whupv lq hdfk ri wkh vxpv vkrzhg wr ehvx�flhqw wr dfklhyh wkh uhtxhvwhg huuru1

D16 Wuxqfdwlrq huuru 59<

Wdeoh D14= ��?�4�4 ?�4Mih Lu |ih4t �? |�i |h�?U@|i_ t�4t ��i? �4TLt�?} @ Uih|@�? �@*�i Lu

|�i ihhLh ihh E�^t3� � @?_ |�i ULhhitTL?_�?} ihhLh uLh |�i h@|�Lt -?-f

c uLh _�gihi?| �@*�it Lu |�i

igiU|��i _�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?|� A�i �@*�it Lu +f @hi �?_�U@|i_ uLh UL4T@h�tL? ��|� |�i ihhLh� A�i

|�hii |@M*it UL?|@�? |�i |h�?U@|�L? ihhLht uLh |�hii }iL4i|h�it Lu |�i t@4T*iG w% 9@w+ 9@w5 (

w% 9@w+'w5 @?_ w%'w+'w5 c hitTiU|��i*)�

Gess huu Q� Q2 Q� Qe Uf huu-?-f

p2 v3� Et v3� Et v3�

433S 433S 43 : 53 4; 314375 � 4=7433D

433. 433S 45 < 78 73 313996 � 5=4433D

433H 433S 49 44 435 <4 313595 � 8=7433D

433b 433S 4< 47 564 539 3133;< � 4=9433e

433�f 433S 57 4; 858 79< 31335< � 7=<433e

433�� 433S 63 55 44<7 4399 31333< � 4=9433�


p2 v3� Et v3� 433eEt v3�

433S 433b 7 6 48 4 31<84 � 4=8433D

433. 433b 8 7 65 5 31<78 � 4=8433D

433H 433b : 8 :6 7 31;<6 � 4=9433D

433b 433b ; 9 498 < 3194< � 5=6433D

433�f 433b 43 ; 6:8 4< 3158; � 8=8433D

433�� 433b 46 < ;87 76 313;; � 4=9433e


p2 v3� Et v3� 433eEt v3�

433S 433b : 8 7 5 31975 � 5=5433D

433. 433b < : < 8 31969 � 5=5433D

433H 433b 44 ; 53 43 318;< � 5=7433D

433b 433b 47 43 78 56 316;6 � 6=:433D

433�f 433b 4; 46 434 84 3148; � ;=<433D

433�� 433b 55 49 563 448 31387 � 5=9433e

��

�# @?@*)|�U@* tL*�|�L? uLh @�L**L� U)*�?_h�U@* t@4T*i

Zulwwhq lq f|olqgulfdo frruglqdwhv dqg iru d vwhdg|0vwdwh vlwxdwlrq/ lq wkh60glphqvlrqdo fdvh wkh pxowl0skdvh udgrq0gl�xvlrq htxdwlrq +Ht1 7165, kdv wkhirup ri Ht1 4318 wkdw ghvfulehv udgrq gl�xvlrq lq wkh pdwhuldo ri wkh f|olqghu1Dv iru wkh fdvh ri lqwhuhvw wkh sureohp suhvhqwv v|pphwu| durxqg wkh } d{lv/ wkhvroxwlrq vkrxog dovr eh lqghshqghqw rq wkh � dqjoh1 Wkxv/ wkh htxdwlrq wr ehvroyhg lv=

GessY2�Yo2

.Gess

4

uY�Yo� �-?F . V @ 3> +E14,

zkhuh V +Etp3� v3�, lv wkh udgrq surgxfwlrq udwh ri wkh frqfuhwh shu sduwlwlrqfruuhfwhg sruh yroxph1 Li zh hqylvdjh wkh vlwxdwlrq ri wkh kroorz f|olqghu +rikhljkw k/ lqqhu udglxv d dqg rxwhu udglxv e, zlwk d udgrq vrxufh ri vwuhqjwk Ur

+Et v3�, hqforvhg lq wkh lqqhu f|olqghu dqg wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq dw wkh rxwhu

5:4

5:5 4G dqdo|wlfdo vroxwlrq iru d kroorz f|olqgulfdo vdpsoh

vxuidfh vhw dw }hur +vhh Ilj1 4317,/ wkh erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv iru Ht1 E14 duh=

F+u, @-rnq(ess

Y�Yo

2Z@�

b-?Z@2�

> u @ d> +E15,

F+u, @ 3> u @ e= +E16,

Lq ghyhorslqj d vroxwlrq wr Ht1 E14 zh zloo dvvxph wkdw wkh udgrq surgxfwlrqudwh ri wkh udgrq vrxufh +shu yroxph ri wkh kroorz lqqhu sduw ri wkh f|olq0ghu, lv pxfk odujhu wkdq wkh surgxfwlrq udwh ri wkh pdwhuldo ri wkh f|olqghu�V � VrJ�oSe �

-r

Z@2�

�1 Xqghu wklv dvvxpswlrq zh fdq qhjohfw wkh surgxfwlrq

whup lq Ht1 E14 dqg uhzulwh wklv htxdwlrq dv=

Y2�Yo2

. �oY�Yo� �2F @ 3> +E17,

�2 @ b-?(ess

@ b-?q(K

@ ��= +E18,

zkhuh c1 lv wkh gl�xvlrq ohqjwk ri udgrq +Ht1 7164,1 Ht1 E17 lv d prgl�hg Ehvvhohtxdwlrq ri rughu }hur1 Wklv w|sh ri htxdwlrq lv vroyhg lqghshqghqwo| e| wkhprgl�hg Ehvvho ixqfwlrqv Lf+�u, dqg Nf+�u,/ wkh jhqhudo vroxwlrq ehlqj d olqhdufrpelqdwlrq ri erwk Ehvvho ixqfwlrqv/

F+u, @ DLf+�u, .ENf+�u,= +E19,

Wkh frqvwdqwv D hq E duh irxqg e| vxevwlwxwlrq ri htxdwlrq Ht1 E19 lq wkherxqgdu| frqglwlrqv +Ht1 E15 dqg Ht1 E16,1 Wklv uhvxowv lq=

F+u, @ 7rJ�oSeb-?

�UfEkK�gfEko�3gfEkK�UfEko�

EgfEk@�UfEkK�3gfEkK�UfEk@��n2q@k

EUfEkK�g�Ek@�ngfEkK�U�Ek@��

�= +E1:,

Wkh udgrq uhohdvh udwh USr +Et v3�, ri wkh kroorz f|olqghu zlwk wkh vrxufh vhdohglqvlgh lv wkhq jlyhq e|=

USr @ �5�ekGKY�Yo> u @ e= +E1;,

Vxevwlwxwlrq ri Ht1 E1: lq Ht1 E1; �qdoo| ohdgv wr=

USr @

�UfEkK�g�EkK�ngfEkK�U�EkK�

EgfEk@�UfEkK�3gfEkK�UfEk@��n2q

@kEUfEkK�g�Ek@�ngfEkK�U�Ek@��

�2Kq-r

@2k= +E1<,

Zh fdq yhuli| wklv vroxwlrq e| dvvxplqj wkdw wkh htxloleulxp frqfhqwudwlrq lq wkhlqqhu yroxph ri wkh f|olqghu kdv d fhuwdlq nqrzq ydoxh Fe^1 Wkhq Ht1 E17 dqg

5:6

lwv fruuhvsrqglqj erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv fkdqjh wr=

Y2�Yo2

. �oY�Yo� �2F @ 3> +E143,

F+u @ d, @ Fe^> +E144,

F+u @ e, @ 3= +E145,

ohdglqj wr wkh iroorzlqj vroxwlrq=

F+u, @ �e^UfEkK�EgfEk@�UfEkK�3gfEkK�UfEk@��

kNf+�u,�

gfEkK�UfEkK�

Lf+�u,l= +E146,

Frqvlghulqj dq htxloleulxp frqfhqwudwlrq lqvlgh wkh kroorz f|olqghu Fe^ @ 533 nEt>wkh lqqhu udglxv d @ 5=68 fp dqg wkh rxwhu udglxv e @ 9=: fp/ iru gl�huhqw ydoxhvri wkh udgrq exon gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw/ wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq sur�ohv ryhu wkhkroorz f|olqghu zloo kdyh wkh vkdsh vkrzq lq Ilj1 E141 Dv h{shfwhg/ lw fdq eh

3 4 5 6 70

50

100

150

200--- D=10-6cm2s-1

- - D=10-7cm2s-1

-.- D=10-8cm2s-1

… D=10-9cm2s-1

r(cm)

C(kBqm-3)

Iljxuh E14= �L?Ui?|h@|�L? ThL�*i L�ih |�i �L**L� U)*�?_ih uLh �@*�it Lu |�i _�g�t�L? ULi�U�i?|

Mi|�ii? 433b @?_ 433S fp2 v3� =

vhhq wkdw iru ydoxhv ri wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw dw wkh orzhu hqg ri wkh fkrvhqudqjh +l1h1/ 433b fp2 v3�,/ wkh udgrq frqfhqwudwlrq sur�oh suhvhqwv d yhu| vwhhsghvfhqw iroorzhg e| dq dv|pswrwlf hyroxwlrq/ phdqlqj wkdw wkh �x{ dw wkh rxwhuvxuidfh ri wkh kroorz f|olqghu zloo eh }hur zkloh iru ydoxhv dw wkh xsshu hqg +l1h1/433S fp2 v3�, wkh frqfhqwudwlrq sur�oh ghfuhdvhv doprvw olqhdu1

��

�@|�i4@|�U@* hi*@|�L?t

�� O)TihML*�U u�?U|�L?t

Wkh k|shuerolf ixqfwlrqv duh gh�qhg dv

vlqk+{, @ e%3e3%

2 > +F14,

frvk+{, @ e%ne3%

2 > +F15,

wdqk+{, @ e%3e3%

e%ne3%> +F16,

frwk+{, @ e%ne3%

e%3e3%= +F17,

Wkh k|shuerolf ixqfwlrq kdyh wkh iroorzlqj uhodwlrq wr wkh wuljrqrphwulf ixqfwlrqv

vlqk+{, @ �l vlq+l{,> +F18,

frvk+{, @ frv+l{,= +F19,

5:8

5:9 Pdwkhpdwlfdo uhodwlrqv

Rwkhu uhodwlrqv xvhg lq wklv uhsruw duh=_Et�?� %�

_%@ frvk{> +F1:,

_EULt� %�_%

@ vlqk{> +F1;,

vlq{ frv | @4

5+vlq+{. |, . vlq+{� |,, > +F1<,

vlq{ vlq | @4

5+frv+{ � |,� frv+{. |,, > +F143,

] u

f

vlqn{ g{ @ �&+4� frvnO, > +F144,

] u

ffrv n{ g{ @ �

&vlqnO= +F145,

��2 ,^�@*�|�it @?_ �?i^�@*�|�it

Dorqj wkh ghulydwlrqv lq Dsshqgl{ D/ d yhu| xvhixo uhodwlrq lv wkh ruwkrjrqdolw|

htxdwlrq=

5

O

] u

fvlq+6Z%

u, vlq+?Z%

u,g{ @ �6?= +F146,

Lq hvwlpdwlqj wkh wuxqfdwlrq huuru ri wkh vxpv lq Dsshqgl{ D/ wkh iroorzlqjlqhtxdolw|=

d2 . e2 � 5de +F147,

lv riwhq hpsor|hg dqg fdq eh hdvlo| ghgxfhg iurp wkdw +d� e,2 � 31

�� Ntiu�* �?|i}h@*t

Doo wkh deryh htxdwlrqv lq wkh dsshqgl{ duh xvhg wr frpsxwh wkh iroorzlqj lqwh0judov hqfrxqwhuhg lq wkh dqdo|wlfdo ghulydwlrqv ri Dsshqgl{ D=] u

fvlq+6Z%

u,g{ @ u

6Z^4� +�4,6`> +F148,

] u

fvlq+6Z%

u, vlqkn{ g{ @ +�4,6n�6Z

ut�?� &u

&2n+6Zu,2 > +F149,

] u

f

vlq+6Z%u

, frvkn{ g{ @ 6Zu

�3E3��6 ULt� &u

&2n+6Zu,2 = +F14:,

F17 Ehvvho ixqfwlrqv 5::

��e �itti* u�?U|�L?t

Wkh iroorzlqj gl�huhqwldo htxdwlrq lv nqrzq dv Ehvvho*v htxdwlrq ri rughu q=

{2 Y2+

Y%2. { Y+

Y%. +n2{2 � q2,| @ 3> +F14;,

dqg lv xvxdoo| hqfrxqwhuhg zkhq rqh vroyhv d sureohp wkdw lv zulwwhq lq wkh irupri d Odsodfh htxdwlrq lq f|olqgulfdo srodu frruglqdwhv1 Wkh jhqhudo vroxwlrq riEhvvho*v htxdwlrq/ zkhq q lv dq lqwhjhu dqg D dqg E duelwudu| frqvwdqwv/ lv=

|+{, @ DM?+{, .E\?+{,= +F14<,

Sxwwlqj n @ ln lq Ht1 F14;/ rqh duulyhv dw wkh prgl�hg Ehvvho*v htxdwlrq ri rughuq=

{2 Y2+

Y%2. { Y+

Y%� +n2{2 . q2,| @ 3> +F153,

vdwlv�hg e| d jhqhudo vroxwlrq ri wkh w|sh=

|+{, @ FL?+{, .GN?+{,> +F154,

zkhuh/ djdlq/ q lv dq lqwhjhu dqg F dqg G duelwudu| frqvwdqwv1Vrph ri wkh surshuwlhv ri wkh prgl�hg Ehvvho ixqfwlrqv duh olvwhg ehorz=

L3?+{, @ L?+{,> +F155,

{?_U?E%�_%

@ {?L?3�+{,> +F156,]Lf+{,g{ @ d wdexodwhg ixqfwlrq> +F157,

N3?+{, @ N?+{,> +F158,

{?_g?E%�_%

@ �{?N?3�+{,> +F159,]Nf+{,g{ @ d wdexodwhg ixqfwlrq1 +F15:,

��D 6Lh4�*@ uLh ihhLh U@*U�*@|�L?

Zkhq wkh huuru zlwk zklfk hdfk dujxphqw +{�> {2> ==={?, ri d ixqfwlrq i+{�> {2> ==={?,lv ghwhuplqhg lv �{�> l @ 4> q/ wkh huuru lq ghwhuplqlqj wkh ixqfwlrq fdq eh frp0sxwhg nqrzlqj wkdw=

�i @?S�'�

�Ys

Y%�

�2�{2� = +F15;,

��

�?@*)|�U@* ThL�*it uLh @TLt�|�L?�_iTi?_i?| 4L�t|�hi

UL?|i?|

#�� ~ihL�ML�?_@h) 4L�t|�hi UL?|i?|

Wr frqvwuxfw d ixqfwlrq p+{> |> }, wkdw surylghv d prgho ri wkh prlvwxuh frqwhqwdv d ixqfwlrq ri srvlwlrq lqvlgh d fxeh zlwk vlgh O/ zh zloo ghqrwh e| p wkh phdqprlvwxuh frqwhqw dqg e| p6@% wkh pd{lpxp prlvwxuh frqwhqw dw +{> |> }, @+O>O>O,1 Zh dvvxph wkdw zh fdq zulwh wkh ixqfwlrq p+{> |> }, dv wkh iroorzlqjsurgxfw=

p+{> |> }, @5\

�'%

p�+l,= +G14,

5:<

5;3 Dqdo|wlfdo sur�ohv iru d srvlwlrq0ghshqghqw prlvwxuh frqwhqw

zlwk wkh vhw ri erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv=

p%+3, @ p++3, @p5+3,> +G15,

p%+5O, @ p++5O, @p5+5O,> +G16,Y6%

Y% %'u@ Y6+

Y+ +'u@ Y6%

Y5 5'u@ 3= +G17,

Gxh wr wkh v|pphwu| ri wkh erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv/ wkh wkuhh ixqfwlrqv p%/ p+ hqp5 duh dfwxdoo| lghqwlfdo1 Wkxv/ xvlqj v|pphwu| dorqj wkh sodqhv { @ O/ | @ O

dqg } @ O zh ghulyh d wzr0sdudphwhu ixqfwlrq iru p+{> |> }, =

p+{> |> }, @5\�'%

p�+l,> +G18,

�p�+l, @ i+l,> 3 ? l � O> l @ {> |> }>p�+l, @ i+5O� l,>O ? l � 5O>

+G19,

i+�, @ D+4� h3k1 � �h3k1�,= +G1:,

Wkh pd{lpxp prlvwxuh frqwhqw lv frqyhqlhqwo| sdudphwulvhg e| wkh iroorzlqjixqfwlrq=

p4@ @ D�+4� h3ku � �h3kuO,� +G1;,

dqg ghshqgv rq wkh phdq prlvwxuh frqwhqw dffruglqj wr=

p6@% @p.p+4�p,= +G1<,

Wkh phdq prlvwxuh frqwhqw fdq eh fdofxodwhg iurp=

p @ �E2u��

2u]f

2u]f

2u]f

p+{> |> },g{g|g} @ �u�

3C u]

f

i+�,g�

4D

�

= +G143,

Lqvhuwlqj wkh ixqfwlrq i iurp Ht1 G1:/ Ht1 G1; dqg Ht1 G1< lq Ht1 G143 dqgshuiruplqj wkh lqwhjudwlrqv jlyhv/

p @ 5�O�

#4� h3ku � �Oh3ku

O. �kh3ku � �

2�O2h3ku � �

k

$�

= +G144,

Dgglwlrqdoo|/ iurp wkh v|vwhp ri htxdwlrqv dq h{suhvvlrq iru wkh sdudphwhu D lvdovr rewdlqhg1

Zlwk Ht1 G144 ydoxhv iru � zhuh jhqhudwhg iru hdfk ydoxh ri wkh phdq prlvwxuhfrqwhqw iru ydulrxv O1 Zlwk wkh jhqhudwhg ydoxhv ri �/ prlvwxuh sur�ohv iru ydulrxvphdq prlvwxuh frqwhqw zhuh fdofxodwhg +Ilj1 4419,1 Wkh surfhgxuh wr fdofxodwhwkh prlvwxuh sur�ohv kdv ehhq lpsohphqwhg lq wkh UdgPrg udgrq wudqvsruw frgh1

G15 Qrq0}hur erxqgdu| prlvwxuh frqwhqw 5;4

#�2 �L?�3ihL ML�?_@h) 4L�t|�hi UL?|i?|

D vlplodu dssurdfk dv lq vhfwlrq G14 zloo eh xvhg dovr iru wkh fdvh ri d qrq0}hurydoxhv ri wkh prlvwxuh dw wkh vxuidfhv ri d fxeh zlwk vlgh O1 Krzhyhu/ wkh ixqfwlrqp+{> |> }, lv wklv wlph d vxp ri wkuhh qrq0htxdo frqwulexwlrqv lq zklfk wkh �uvwwhup fruuhvsrqgv wr wkh fdvh ri d krprjhqhrxv glvwulexwlrq +pf,=

p+{> |> }, @ pf .5\

�'%

p�+l, .5\

�'%

p�+l,> l @ {> |> }>

p�+l, @ i�+l,> 3 ? l � O>

p�+l, @ i+5O� l,> O ? l � 5O>

p�+l, @ i�+l,> 3 ? l � O>

p�+l, @ i+5O� l,> O ? l � 5O>

i�+�, @ D�

�vlq

��

5O

�.

5

�frv

��

5O

��>

i�+�, @ E�� +� �O,2 = +G145,

Lq wklv frqvwuxfwlrq pf/ D dqg E duh dgmxvwdeoh sdudphwhuv1 Lw fdq eh hdvlo|fkhfnhg wkdw p+{> |> }, vdwlv�hv wkh iroorzlqj vhw ri erxqgdu| frqglwlrqv zklfkduh vlplodu wr Ht1 G15 wr Ht1 G17 h{fhsw iru wkh qrq0}hur ydoxh dw wkh vxuidfhv1

p+3> |> }, @p+{> 3> }, @p+{> |> 3, @pf> +G146,

p+5O> |> }, @p+{> 5O> }, @p+{> |> 5O, @pf> +G147,Y6Y% %'u

@ Y6Y+ +'u

@ Y6Y5 5'u

@ 3 +G148,

Wkh phdq prlvwxuh frqwhqw p iru wklv ixqfwlrq fdq eh h{suhvvhg dv d ixqfwlrq riwkh dgmxvwdeoh sdudphwhuv/

p @ �E2u��

2u]f

2u]f

2u]f

p+{> |> },g{g|g} @ +G149,

@ pf .��u

�� 2uZ

�S �5� 2

Z

��.��u

�� 2ue

�2

��+G14:,

Diwhu vrph h{shulphqwlqj zlwk wkh ehkdylrxu ri p+{> |> }, dv d ixqfwlrq ri wkhdgmxvwdeoh sdudphwhuv lw zdv ghflghg wr vhw E @ 3=4 fp3�1 Vhwwlqj E dw odujhuydoxhv vrphwlphv uhvxowhg lq dq sk|vlfdoo| xqzdqwhg orfdo pd{lpxp ri wkh prlv0wxuh glvwulexwlrq dw srvlwlrqv ehwzhhq wkh vxuidfh dqg wkh fhqwuh ri wkh fxeh1 Iru

5;5 Dqdo|wlfdo sur�ohv iru d srvlwlrq0ghshqghqw prlvwxuh frqwhqw

d udqjh ri phdq prlvwxuh frqwhqwv iurp 3 wr 4/ Ht1 G149 zdv xvhg wr jhqhudwhydoxhv iru pf dqg D dqg/ fruuhvsrqglqjo|/ wkh prlvwxuh sur�oh +dw :18fp, lqIlj1 44191

��M*�L}h@T�)

^4` ---1 Phdvxuhphqw ri udgrq dqg udgrq gdxjkwhuv lq dlu1 Whfkqlfdo Uh0sruw <:/ QUFS/ 4<;;1

^5` ---1 Shqhwudelolw| ri frqfuhwh1 Vwxwhfkudssruw 45/ vwxglhjurxs 67/ Yhuhqlj0lqj Qhghuodqgvh Fhphqwlqgxvwulh/ 4<<51 Lq Gxwfk1

^6` ---1 Surwhfwlrq Djdlqvw Udgrq0555 dw Krph dqg dw Zrun/ yroxph 98 riDqqxdo LFUS Sxeolfdwlrq1 Shujdprq/ R{irug/ 4<<61

^7` ---1 Dffxudf| +wuxhqhvv dqg suhflvlrq, ri phdvxuhphqw phwkrgv dqg uh0vxowv1 Whfkqlfdo Uhsruw LVR 8:5804=9/ 4<<71

^8` ---1 Ehohlgvvwdqgsxqw udgrq +udgrq srolf| srlqw ri ylhz,1 Lqwhuqdo UhsruwVhulhv 457;6/ qu1 4;/ Plqlvwhu| ri Krxvlqj/ Sk|vlfdo Sodqqlqj dqg Hqylurq0phqw +YURP,/ 4<<71

^9` ---1 Rshudwlrqdo whfkqltxhv iru wkh uhgxfwlrq ri udgldwlrq surshuwlhv rifrqfuhwh1 Lqwurq Uhsruw <94:6/ 4<<:1 Lq Gxwfk1

^:` ---1 Suholplqdu| uhvxowv ri uxudo lqyhvwljdwlrq iru udgrq lq gzhoolqjv1 ULYPuhsruw 94338;339/ ULYP/ 4<<:1 Lq Gxwfk1

^;` ---1 Udglrdfwlylw| ghwhuplqdwlrqv= Phwkrg iru phdvxulqj wkh udgrq h{kd0odwlrq udwh iurp exloglqj pdwhuldov1 Whfkqlfdo Uhsruw QHQ89<</ Frqfhsw;0D/ QQL/ Qryhpehu 4<<;1

5;6

5;7 Eleolrjudsk|

^<` ---1 HQFL surgxfwlqirupdwlrq dqg surgxfwlheurfkxuh1 Xlwjdyh GluhfwruddwPdunhwlqj/ *v Khuwrjhqervfk/ wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ 4<<<1

^43` I1 Dex0Mdudg dqg M1K1 Iuhpolq1 H�hfw ri lqwhuqdo zdoo fryhuv rq udgrqhpdqdwlrq lqvlgh krxvhv1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 77/ 4<;61

^44` M1J1 Dfnhuv1 Frqfhqwudwlrq ri udglrqxfolghv lq exloglqj dqg qdwxudo pdwh0uldov1 Whfkqlfdo Uhsruw UG0H2;8380579/ 4<;71 Lqwhulp uhsruw ri VDZRUDsurmhfw> lq Gxwfk1

^45` S1F1 Dlwflq1 Fhphqwv ri |hvwhugd| dqg wrgd|/ frqfuhwh ri wrpruurz1 Fhphqwdqg Frqfuhwh Uhvhdufk/ 63=467<~468</ 53331

^46` N1D1 Dndqql1 H�hfwlyh wudqvsruw frh�flhqwv lq khwhurjhqhrxv phgld1Fkhplfdo Hqjlqhhulqj Vflhqfh/ yro1 75+qr1 ;,=4<78~4<87/ 4<;:1

^47` I1M1 Doghqndps dqg S1 Vwrrs1 Vrxufhv dqg Wudqvsruw ri Lqgrru Udgrq 0

Phdvxuhphqwv dqg Phfkdqlvpv1 SkG wkhvlv/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Jurqlqjhq/ wkhQhwkhuodqgv/ 4<<71

^48` F1H1 Dqghuvhq1 Hqwu| ri Vrlo Jdv dqg Udgrq lq Krxvhv1 SkG wkhvlv/ UlvrQdwlrqdo Oderudwru|/ Ghqpdun/ 4<<51

^49` F1H1 Dqghuvhq1 HUULFD prgho lqwhufrpsdulvrq1 Whfkqlfdo uhsruw/ UlvrQdwlrqdo Oderudwru|/ 4<<<1

^4:` K1H1 Dvkwrq dqg U1O1 Txlurxhwwh1 Frdwlqjv/ dgkhvlyhv dqg vhdodqwv1 LqWhfkqlfdo Grfxphqwdwlrq %Shuirupdqfh ri Pdwhuldov lq Xvh%1 Exloglqj Vfl0hqfh Lqvljkw/ 4<;71

^4;` F1 Edl{hudv1 Lqgrru udgrq vxuyh| lq wkh prvw srsxodwhg duhdv lq vsdlq1Hqylurqphqwdo Lqwhuqdwlrqdo/ yro1 55+vxsso1 4,=V9:4~V9:9/ 4<<91

^4<` O1 Edvkhhu1 Dvvhvvphqw ri wkh gxudelolw| ri frqfuhwh iurp lwv shuphdwlrqsurshuwlhv= D uhylhz1 Frqvwuxfwlrq dqg Exloglqj Pdwhuldov/ 48=<6~436/53341

^53` G1S1 Ehqw} dqg H1M1 Jduerf}l1 Shufrodwlrq ri skdvhv lq d wkuhh glphqvlrqdofhphqw sdvwh plfurvwuxfwxuh prgho1 Fhphqw dqg Frqfuhwh Uhvhdufk/ 54/4<<41

^54` D1J1 Eh}xv1 M1 Fkhp1 Vrf1 Idudgd| Wudqv1/ :7+5,=69:/ 4<:;1

5;8

^55` M1 Eljx1 Dq dxwrpdwhg pxowlvhqvru dssdudwxv iru frpsdudwlyh phpeudqhudgrq dqg wkrurq shuphdelolw| vwxglhv1 Qxfohdu Lqvwuxphqwv dqg Phwkrgv

lq Sk|vlfv Uhvhdufk D/ 584=699~6:6/ 4<;91

^56` P1 Errlm1 Vwduwgrfxphqw udgldwlrq shuirupdqfh qrup +VSQ,1 WhfkqlfdoUhsruw Qryhp grfxphqw qu1 68535326333/ QRYHP/ 4<<:1

^57` S1Z1 Eurzq dqg G1 Vkl1 Srurvlw|0Shuphdelolw| Uhodwlrqvklsv/ yroxph LLri Pdwhuldov Vflhqfh ri Frqfuhwh/ sdjhv ;6~43<1 M1 Vndoq|/ Wkh DphulfdqFhudplf Vrflhw|/ Zhvwhuylooh/ Rklr/ 4<<41

^58` S1F1 Fdupdq1 Iorz ri Jdvhv Wkurxjk Srurxv Phgld1 Exwwhuzruwkv Vflhq0wl�f Sxeolfdwlrqv/ Orqgrq/ 4<891

^59` K1V1 Fduvodz dqg M1F1 Mdhjhu1 Frqgxfwlrq ri Khdw lq Vrolgv1 FoduhqgrqSuhvv/ R{irug/ vhfrqg hglwlrq/ 4<8<1

^5:` Q1 K1 Fhdjovnh dqg R1 D1 Krxjhq1 Wkh gu|lqj ri judqxodu vrolgv1 Wudqv1Dphu1 Lqvw1 Fkhp1 Hqj1/ 66=5;6~647/ 4<6:1

^5;` F1 Frvpd1 Ghwhuplqdwlrq ri udgrq hpdqdwlrq iudfwlrq dqg gl�xvlrq fr0h�flhqw lq frqfuhwh xvlqj dffxpxodwlrq fkdpehuv1 Dssolhg Udgldwlrq dqg

Lvrwrshv/ 87+6,=79:~7:6/ 53341

^5<` L1 Fr}pxwd dqg H1U1 Ydq ghu Juddi1 Phwkrgv iru phdvxulqj gl�xvlrq frh�0flhqwv ri udgrq lq exloglqj pdwhuldov1 Wkh Vflhqfh ri wkh Wrwdo Hqylurqphqw/+5:5,=656~668/ 53341

^63` M1 Fudqn dqg J1V1 Sdun1 Gl�xvlrq lq Sro|phuv1 Dfdghplf Suhvv/ 4<9;1

^64` P1Y1 Fxorw1 H�hfwlyh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqw ri udgrq lq frqfuhwh/ wkhru| dqgphwkrg iru �hog phdvxuhphqwv1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 63=596~5:3/ 4<:91

^65` Z1 Gh Yulhv1 Udglrdfwlylw| phdvxuhphqw= Ghwhuplqdwlrq phwkrg ri wkhudwh ri wkh h{kdodwlrq ri ghqvh exloglqj surgxfwv1 Whfkqlfdo Uhsruw QHQ089<</ Qhghuodqgv Qrupdolvdwlh Lqvwlwxxw/ Ghoiw/ wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ 4<<<1 LqGxwfk1

^66` D1M1 Ghfnhu1 Vrolg Vwdwh Sk|vlfv1 Suhqwlfh Kdoo Lqf1/ Orqgrq/ 4<9;1

^67` I1D1O1 Gxoolhq1 Srurxv Phgld/ Ioxlg Wudqvsruw dqg Sruh Vwuxfwxuh1 Dfd0ghplf Suhvv Lqf1/ 4<:<1

5;9 Eleolrjudsk|

^68` D1M1H1M1 Gxsxlw1 Hwkxghv Wkhrultxhv hw Sudfwltxhv vxu Oh Prxyhphqw Ghv

Hdx{/ 4;961 Flwhg lq Fdupdq +Fd89,1

^69` S1O1 Gxuloo dqg U1J1 Julvnh|1 Gl�xvlrq dqg vroxwlrq ri jdvhv lq wkhupdoo|vriwhqhg ru prowhq sro|phuv1 D1 L1 Fk1 Mrxuqdo/ 45+9,=447:~4484/ 4<991

^6:` F1 Hgvihogw1 Wkh Udglxp Glvwulexwlrq lq vrph Vzhglvk Vrlov dqg lwv H�hfw

rq Udgrq Hpdqdwlrq1 SkG wkhvlv/ Glylvlrq ri Flylo dqg HqylurqphqwdoHqjlqhhulqj/ Ur|do Lqvwlwxwh ri Whfkqrorj|/ Vwrfnkrop/ 4<<;1

^6;` J1J1 Hlfkkro}1 Frqwuro ri udgrq hpdqdwlrq iurp exloglqj pdwhuldov e|vxuidfh frdwlqj1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 6</ 4<;31

^6<` Doehuw Hlqvwhlq1 D qhz phwkrg ri ghwhuplqlqj prohfxodu glphqvlrqv1 Dq0qdohq ghu Sk|vln/ 4<=5;<~639/ 4<391

^73` P1F1 Idlvfd dqg P1P1U1 Whl{lhud1 Gl�huhqw vwxglhv rq exloglqj pdwhuldov1Lq Surfhhglqjv ri HUULFD Zrunvkrs/ Dwkhqv/ 4<<<1 Whfkqlfdo Xqlyhuvlw|ri Dwkhqv1

^74` U1O1 Iohlvfkhu1 Prlvwxuh dqg udgrq hpdqdwlrq1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 85+9,=:<:~:<</ 4<;:1

^75` U1O1 Iohlvfkhu1 Shuphdelolw| ri fdxonlqj frpsrxqgv wr udgrq1 Khdowk

Sk|vlfv/ 95+4,=<4~<8/ 4<<51

^76` N1K1 Ironhuwv1 H{shulphqwdo lqyhvwljdwlrqv ri gl�xvlrq dqg h{kdodwlrq riudgrq dqg wkrurq iurp exloglqj pdwhuldov1 Udg1 Surw1 Grv1/ :=74~77/ 4<;61

^77` P1 Ixnxgd dqg V1 Nxzdmlpd1 M1 Fkhp1 Sk|v1/ 43;=6334/ 4<<;1

^78` P1V1 Jdgg dqg W1E1 Erudn1 Lq0vlwx ghwhuplqdwlrq ri wkh gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwri udgrq lq frqfuhwh1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 9;+9,=;4:~;55/ 4<<81

^79` H1M1 Jduerf}l1 Shuphdelolw|/ gl�xvlylw| dqg plfurvwuxfwxudo sdudphwhuv= Dfulwlfdo uhylhz1 Fhphqw dqg Frqfuhwh Uhvhdufk/ 53=8<4~934/ 4<<31

^7:` H1M1 Jduerf}l dqg G1S1 Ehqw}1 Ixqgdphqwdo Frpsxwhu Vlpxodwlrq Prghov

iru Fhphqw0Edvhg Pdwhuldov/ yroxph LL ri Pdwhuldo Vflhqfh ri Frqfuhwh/sdjhv 45:~4951 M1 Vndoq|/ Wkh Dphulfdq Fhudplf Vrflhw|/ Zhvwhuylooh/ Rklr/4<<41

5;:

^7;` H1 S1 Jldqqholv1 Sro|phu0vlolfdwh qdqrfrpsrvlwhv= Prgho v|vwhpv iru frq0�qhg sro|phuv dqg sro|phu euxvkhv1 Dgydqfhv lq sro|phu vflhqfh/ 46;=43:~47;/ 4<<;1

^7<` Jlopdq/ M1Z1 Sro|phu Od|huhg0Vlolfdwh Qdqrfrpsrvlwhv= Sro|dplgh09/

Sro|surs|ohqh dqg Sro|vw|uhqh1 Iluh Uhwdugdqw Fkhplfdov dvvrfldwlrq/ Rf0wrehu 5705: 4<<<1 Lq Qhz Dgydqfhv lq Iodph Uhwdugdqw Whfkqrorj|1

^83` Z1 D1 Jrggdug1 Dwrplvwlf vlpxodwlrqv ri pdwhuldov1 LqProhfxodu Prgholqj>

Wkh Fkhplvwu| ri wkh [[L Fhqwxu|/ sdjhv 98~463/ Ulr gh Mdqhlur/ Eud}lo/4<<61 Zruog Vflhqwl�f Sxeolvklqj Fr1 Lqf1

^84` D1I1 Kdih} dqg J1 Vrprj|l1 Ghwhuplqdwlrq ri udgrq dqg wkrurq shuphdelo0lw| wkurxjk vrph sodvwlfv e| wudfn whfkqltxh1 Qxfo1 Wudfnv Udgldw1 Phdv1/45=9<:~:33/ 4<;91

^85` V1 Khgvwurp1 Wkh sk|vlfdo vwuxfwxuh ri k|gudwhg fhphqwv1 Lq Surfhhglqjv

ri wkh Vhfrqg Lqwhuqdwlrqdo V|psrvlxp rq wkh Fkhplvwu| ri Fhphqw/ sdjhv838~867/ Vwrfnkrop/ 4<6;1

^86` \1 Klhpvwud1 Wkh vhfrqg gxwfk qdwlrqdo vxuyh| rq udgrq lq gzhoolqjv= Vhw0xs ri wkh surmhfw1 Whfkqlfdo Uhsruw ULYP uhsruw qr1 94338;338/ ULYP/4<<:1

^87` I1J1 Kr dqg Z1 Vwulhghu1 Qxphulfdo hydoxdwlrq ri wkh srurxv phglxph�hfwlyh gl�xvlylw| ehwzhhq wkh nqxgvhq dqg frqwlqxxp olplwv1 Mrxuqdo riFkhplfdo Sk|vlfv/ :6+45,=95<9/ 4<;31

^88` R1 D1 Krxjhq1 Olplwdwlrqv ri gl�xvlrq htxdwlrqv lq gu|lqj1 Wudqv1 Dphu1Lqvw1 Fkhp1 Hqj1/ 68=4;6~53</ 4<6<1

^89` N1K1 Kxheqhu dqg H1D1 Wkruqwrq1 Wkh Ilqlwh Hohphqw Phwkrg iru Hqjl0

qhhuv1 Mrkq Zloh| dqg Vrqv/ Qhz \run/ 4<;51

^8:` P1S1P1 Mdqvvhq1 Prghoolqj udgrq wudqvsruw lq gxwfk gzhoolqjv1 WhfkqlfdoUhsruw Qr1 943383338/ ULYP/ 4<<;1

^8;` G1O1 Mrkqvrq1 Qhz sruh0vl}h sdudphwhu fkdudfwhulvlqj wudqvsruw lq srurxvphgld1 Sk|vlfdo Uhylhz Ohwwhuv/ 8:+53,/ 4<;91

^8<` V1 Ndvklodud1 Lq suhsdudwlrq dw wkh Pdwhuldo dqg Surfhvv Vlpxodwlrq Fhqwhu/Fdowhfk/ XVD1

5;; Eleolrjudsk|

^93` O1 U1 Ndwkuhq1 Udglrdfwlylw| lq wkh Hqylurqphqw= Vrxufhv/ Glvwulexwlrq

dqg Vxuyhloodqfh1 Kduzrrg Dfdghplf Suhvv/ Qhz \run/ 4<;71

^94` J1 Nhoohu1 Plwljdwlrq phwkrgv lq kljk udgrq duhdv lq jhupdq|1 Udgldw1

Surw1 Grv1/ 78=898~89;/ 4<<51

^95` J1P1 Nhqgdo dqg M1F1K1 Plohv1 H{srvxuh wr udgrq lq XN gzhoolqjv1 Whfk0qlfdo uhsruw/ QUSE/ Juhdw Eulwdlq/ 4<<71

^96` P1 Nrrspdqv dqg U1M1 gh Phlmhu1 Udgrq wudqvsduhqf| ri exloglqj pdwhul0dov1 NYL Lqwhuqdo Uhsruw U7:/ 4<<61

^97` M1V1E1 Nr}hq|1 Dndg1 Zlvv1 Zlhq/ LLd+469,=748/ 4<5:1

^98` M1 Nurss dqg K1N1 Klovgrui1 Shuirupdqfh fulwhuld iru frqfuhwh gxudelolw|1ULOHP uhsruw 45/ HIQ Vsrq/ Orqgrq/ 4<<81

^99` Y1 Odehg1 Vwxg| ri udgrq shuphdwlrq wkurxjk sro|phu phpeudqhv= Ds0solfdwlrq wr frqwlqxrxv phdvxuhphqw ri udgrq lq zdwhu1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/96+5,=4:5~4:;/ 4<<51

^9:` L1 Odndwrv1 Gl�xvlrq ri udgrq lq srurxv phgld vdwxudwhg zlwk jhov dqghpxovlrqv1 Wudqvsruw lq srurxv phgld/ 5:+5,=4:4~4;7/ 4<<:1

^9;` F1G1 Odzuhqfh1 Wudqvsruw ri r{|jhq wkurxjk frqfuhwh1 Lq Wkh Fkhplvwu|

dqg Fkhplfdoo|0Uhodwhg Surshuwlhv ri Frqfuhwh/ qxpehu 68/ sdjhv 5::~<61Eulwlvk Fhudplf Surfhhglqjv/ 4<;71

^9<` I1P1 Ohd1 Wkh Fkhplvwu| ri Fhphqw dqg Frqfuhwh1 Duqrog/ Orqgrq/ 4<:31

^:3` D1 H1 Orqj1 Zk| dvvhvv wkh surshuwlhv ri qhdu0vxuidfh frqfuhwhB Frqvwuxf0

wlrq dqg Exloglqj Pdwhuldov/ 48=98~:</ 53341

^:4` N1 Pdhndzd1 Prgholqj ri Frqfuhwh Shuirupdqfh/ K|gudwlrq/ Plfurvwuxf0

wxuh Irupdwlrq dqg Pdvv Wudqvsruw1 HIQ Vsrq/ Orqgrq/ 4<<<1

^:5` H1 Pdqldv1 Lqwhufdodwlrq nlqhwlfv ri orqj sro|phuv lq 5qp frq�qhphqwv1Pdfurprohfxohv/ 66=:<88~:<99/ 53331

^:6` H1D1 Pdud}lrwlv1 Wkhruhwlfdo hydoxdwlrq ri wkh udgrq hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqwiru frdo �| dvk1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 85+6,/ 4<;:1

5;<

^:7` S1M1 Pdwkhz dqg M1 Ehuhwnd1 Phwkrg iru wkh uhgxfwlrq ri udglrdfwlylw| rivrph exloglqj pdwhuldov1 Udgldwlrq Surwhfwlrq ri Dxvwudold/ 5+4,/ 4<;71

^:8` V1O1 Pd|r1 Guhlglqj= D jhqhulf irufh �hog iru prohfxodu vlpxodwlrqv1 M1

Sk|v1 Fkhp1/ <7+59,=;;<:~;<3</ 4<<31

^:9` Z1M1 PfFduwhu1 Qhdu0vxuidfh vhqvruv iru frqglwlrq prqlwrulqj ri fryhu0}rqhfrqfuhwh1 Frqvwuxfwlrq dqg Exloglqj Pdwhuldov/ 48=448~457/ 53341

^::` S1 N1 Phkwd dqg G1 Pdqprkdq1 Sruh vl}h glvwulexwlrq dqg shuphdelolw| rikdughqhg fhphqw sdvwhv1 Lq :wk Lqwo1 Frqj1 Fkhp1 Fhp1/ 4<;31

^:;` S1N1 Phkwd dqg M1P1 Prqwhlur1 Frqfuhwh= Vwuxfwxuh/ Surshuwlhv dqg Pd0

whuldov1 Suhqwlfh Kdoo/ Qhz Mhuvh|/ 4<<61

^:<` Q1 Phwursrolv1 M1 Fkhp1 Sk|v1/ +54,=43;:/ 4<861

^;3` V1 Plqghvv1 Lqwhuidfhv lq Frqfuhwh/ yroxph LL ri Pdwhuldov Vflhqfh ri Frq0

fuhwh/ sdjhv 45:~4951 M1 Vndoq|/ Wkh Dphulfdq Fhudplf Vrflhw|/ Zhvwhuylooh/Rklr/ 4<<41

^;4` V1 Plqghvv dqg M1I1 \rxqj1 Frqfuhwh1 Suhqwlfh Kdoo Lqf1/ Qhz Mhuvh|/ 4<;81

^;5` Prohfxodu Vlpxodwlrq Lqf1 Fhulxv5 Pdqxdov Vhulhv/ 4<<;04<<<1

^;6` O1 Prudzvnd1 Lq�xhqfh ri vhdodqwv rq udgrq hpdqdwlrq udwh iurp exloglqjpdwhuldov1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 77/ 4<;61

^;7` O1 Prudzvnd dqg F1U1 Skloolsv1 Ghshqghqfh ri wkh udgrq hpdqdwlrq fr0h�flhqw rq udglxp glvwulexwlrq dqg lqwhuqdo vwuxfwxuh ri wkh pdwhuldo1Jhrfklp1 Frvprfklp1 Dfwd/ 8:/ 4<<61

^;8` I1 Pxoohu0Sodwkh1 M1 Fkhp1 Sk|v1/ <9=6533/ 4<<51

^;9` D1 R1 Pxvwdskd1 Qdwxudo udglrdfwlylw| lq vrph exloglqj pdwhuldov lq nhq|ddqg wkh frqwulexwlrq wr wkh lqgrru h{whuqdo grvhv1 Udg1 Surw1 Grv1/ :4+4,/4<<:1

^;:` D1 Z1 P|huv1 WDSSLM/ 77+8;,/ 4<941

^;;` Z1Z1 Qd}dur� dqg V1P1 Gr|oh1 Udgrq hqwu| lqwr krxvhv kdylqj d fudzovsdfh1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 7;=598~5;4/ 4<;81

5<3 Eleolrjudsk|

^;<` D1P1 Qhylooh1 Surshuwlhv ri Frqfuhwh1 Dgglvrq Zhvoh| Orqjpdq Olplwhg/Hqjodqg/ 4<<91

^<3` E1N1 Q|dph dqg M1P1 Loovwrq1 Fdsloodu| sruh vwuxfwxuh dqg shuphdelolw|ri kdughqhg fhphqw sdvwh1 Lq :wk Lqwo1 Frqj1 Fkhp1 Fhp1/ sdjhv 4;4~4;8/4<;31

^<4` L1 Rwkpdq dqg P1 Pdkurxnd1 Udglrqxfolgh frqwhqw lq vrph exloglqj pd0whuldov dqg wkhlu lqgrru jdppd grvh udwh1 Udg1 Surw1 Grv1/ 88+7,/ 4<<71

^<5` Y1J1 Sdsdgdnlv1 Sk|vlfdo dqg fkhplfdo fkdudfwhulvwlfv d�hfwlqj wkh gxud0elolw| ri frqfuhwh1 DFL Pdwhuldov Mrxuqdo/ ;+5,/ 4<<41

^<6` F1 Sdsdvwhidqrx1 H{srvxuh iurp wkh udglrdfwlylw| lq exloglqj pdwhuldov1Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 7:+8,/ 4<;71

^<7` O1 Sho1 Prlvwxuh Wudqvsruw lq Srurxv Exloglqj Pdwhuldov1 SkG wkhvlv/Whfkqlfdo Xqlyhuvlw| Hlqgkryhq/ wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ 4<<81

^<8` Q1S1 Shwursrxorv1 Exloglqj pdwhuldov skrwrq dwwhqxdwlrq/ qdwxudo udglrdf0wlylw| frqwhqw dqg udgrq h{kdodwlrq udwh1 Lq Surfhhglqjv ri wkh HUULFD

Zrunvkrs/ Dwkhqv/ 4<<<1 Whfkqlfdo Xqlyhuvlw| ri Dwkhqv1

^<9` S1F1 Sklolssl1 Wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh ri srurxv exloglqj pdwhuldov= Vwxg| rid fhphqw dqg olph pruwdu1 Lq Wudqvsruw lq Srurxv Phgld/ sdjhv 54<~578/wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ 4<<71 Noxzhu Dfdghplf Sxeolvkhuv1

^<:` D1 Sr�mq1 Rq wkh h{kdodwlrq dqg gl�xvlrq fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri frqfuhwh1 Udg1Surw1 Grv1/ 57+427,/ 4<;;1

^<;` M1 Srko0Uxolqj1 Lqyhvwljdwlrq rq wkh vxlwdelolw| ri ydulrxv pdwhuldov dv udgrqgl�xvlrq eduulhuv1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 6<=5<<~634/ 4<;31

^<<` W1F1 Srzhuv1 Vwxglhv ri wkh sk|vlfdo surshuwlhv ri kdughqhg sruwodqg fhphqwsdvwh1 Mrxuqdo ri Dphulfdq Frqfuhwh Lqvwlwxwh/ +76,/ 4<7904<7:1 Qlqh sduwv1

^433` W1F1 Srzhuv1 Wkh qrq0hydsrxudeoh zdwhu frqwhqw ri kdughqhg sruwodqgfhphqw sdvwh1 DVWP Exo1/ +48;,=9;~:9/ 4<7<1

^434` W1F1 Srzhuv1 M1 Uhv1 SFD/ 6+4,=7:~88/ 4<941

5<4

^435` O1 Sxw1 Udgrqfrqfhqwudwlrqv lq wkh qhwkhuodqg1 Udgldwlrq surwhfwlrqvhulhv 47/ Plqlvwhulh ydq Yronvkxlvyhvwlqj/ Uxlpwholmnh Rughqlqj dqg Pl0olhxehkhhu/ 4<;91 Lq Gxwfk1

^436` O1Z1 Sxw1 Hylghqfh iru dqg lpsolfdwlrqv ri vhoi0edfnjurxqg ri udgrqgrvlphwhuv zlwk jodvv0�ehu �owhuv1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ :;+4,=<7~<</ 53331

^437` O1Z1 Sxw dqg H1U1 Ydq ghu Juddi1 Lqsxw sdudphwhuv iru udgrq wudqvsruwprghov= D olwhudwxuh vwxg|1 NYL Lqwhuqdo Uhsruw U<5/ 4<<91 Lq Gxwfk1

^438` J1 Txdqox dqg Z1 Khqjgh1 Vrxufhv dqg surwhfwlrq phdvxuhv iru lqgrruudgrq1 Udg1 Surw1 Grv1/ :9+7,/ 4<<;1

^439` W1Y1 Udpdfkdqgud1 Phdvxuhphqw ri udgrq shuphdelolw| wkurxjk vrphphpeudqhv1 Qxfo1 Wudfnv1 Udgldw1 Phdv1/ 46/ 4<;:1

^43:` Y1V1 Udpdfkdqgudq1 Frqfuhwh Dgpl{wxuhv Kdqgerrn1 Qr|hv Sxeolfdwlrqv/Qhz Mhuvh|/ 4<<81

^43;` D1 Udzdw1 Udgrq h{kdodwlrq udwh lq exloglqj pdwhuldov1 Qxfo1 Wudfnv Ud0gldw1 Phdv1/ 4<<41

^43<` M1Q1 Uhgg|1 Dq Lqwurgxfwlrq wr wkh Ilqlwh Hohphqw Phwkrg1 Pf0Judz Kloo/Qhz \run/ 4<;71

^443` N1M1 Uhqnhq dqg W1 Urvhqehuj1 Oderudwru| phdvxuhphqwv ri wkh wudqvsruwri udgrq jdv wkurxjk frqfuhwh vdpsohv1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 9;+9,=;33~;3;/ 4<<81

^444` I1E1 Ulehlur1 D jhqhudo vroxwlrq lq wkh f|olqgulfdo frruglqdwhv v|vwhp iru wkhgl�xvlrq ri d udglrqxfolgh lq krprjhqhrxv dqg lvrwurslf vrolgv1 UdgldwlrqPhdvxuhphqwv/ 63=46<~486/ 4<<<1

^445` M1Q1 Urehuwv dqg O1P1 Vfkzduw}1 Judlq frqvrolgdwlrq dqg hohfwulfdo frq0gxfwlylw| lq srurxv phgld1 Sk|vlfdo Uhylhz E/ 64+<,/ 4<;81

^446` O1P1P1 Urhoriv dqg O1F1 Vfkrowhq1 Wkh h�hfw ri djlqj/ kxplglw| dqg �|0dvkdgglwlyh rq wkh udgrq h{kdodwlrq iurp frqfuhwh1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 9:+6,=599~5:4/ 4<<71

^447` Y1F1 Urjhuv1 Udgrq gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv iru uhvlghqwldo frqfuhwhv1 KhdowkSk|vlfv/ 9:+6,=594~598/ 4<<71

5<5 Eleolrjudsk|

^448` Y1F1 Urjhuv1 Udgrq gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv iru djhg uhvlghqwldo frqfuhwhv1Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 9;+9,=;65~;67/ 4<<81

^449` Y1F1 Urjhuv dqg N1N1 Qlhovrq1 Pxowlskdvh udgrq jhqhudwlrq dqg wudqvsruwlq srurxv pdwhuldov1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 93=;3:~;48/ 4<<41

^44:` P1 Uxwkhuirug/ S1 Udgrq hpdqdwlrq frh�flhqwv iru skrvskrj|svxp1 KhdowkSk|vlfv/ 9<+7,/ 4<<81

^44;` \1 Vdwr1 Vroxelolwlhv dqg gl�xvlrq frh�flhqwv ri fduerq glr{lgh dqg qlwurjhqlq sro|surs|ohqh/ kljk0ghqvlw| sro|hwk|ohqh dqg sro|vw|uhqh xqghu kljksuhvvxuh dqg whpshudwxuh1 Ioxlg Skdvh Htxloleuld/ 495=594~5:9/ 4<<<1

^44<` O1H1M1M1 Vfkdds1 H�hfwv ri phdvxuhv wr uhgxfh wkh qdwxudo edfnjurxqgudgldwlrq lq gzhoolqjv1 Whfkqlfdo Uhsruw U7635<D61OV/ Olfkwyhog Exlv dqgSduwqhuv/ Xwuhfkw/ wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ 4<<91 Lq Gxwfk1

^453` O1H1M1M1 Vfkdds1 Udgldwlrq shuirupdqfh qrup= Suholplqdu| lqyhvwljdwlrq1Whfkqlfdo Uhsruw U76444D31OV/ Olfkwyhog Exlv dqg Sduwqhuv EY/ 4<<;1

^454` O1H1M1M1 Vfkdds1 Wkh udgldwlrq shuirupdqfh lqgh{ +USL, dqg prgho irulrqlvlqj udgldwlrq lq wkh olylqj hqylurqphqw1 Erxzi|vlfd/ 43=43~53/ 4<<;e1Lq Gxwfk1

^455` D1H1 Vfkhlghjjhu1 Wkh Sk|vlfv ri Iorz Wkurxjk Srurxv Phgld1 Xqlyhuvlw|ri Wrurqwr Suhvv/ Juhdw Eulwdlq/ 4<:71

^456` V1 G1 Vfkhu| dqg W1 O1 Orsh}1 Vruswlrq ri udgrq rq srurxv pdwhuldov dqgwkh lpsruwdqfh ri frqwuroolqj udgrq lq wkh lqgrru hqylurqphqw1 Lq Lqgrru

Dlu Srooxwlrq> Udgrq Elrdhurvrov dqg YRFV1 Ohzlv Sxeolvkhuv/ 4<<<1

^457` V1G1 Vfkhu| dqg V1 Zklwwohvwrqh1 Ghvruswlrq ri udgrq dw hduwk*v vxuidfh1M1 Jhrsk|v1 Uhv1/ <7/ 4<;<1

^458` F1 Vfkplgw1 Surgxfhuv Prqwko|/ 4<+;,=54/ 4<881

^459` X1 Vfkqhlghu1 Hukdowhq yrq ehwrq ehl krkhq whpshudwxuhq1 Ghxwvfkhu

Dxvvfkxvv Vwdkoehwrq/ sdjh 66:/ 4<;51

^45:` O1P1 Vfkzduw} dqg M1U1 Edqdydu1 Wudqvsruw surshuwlhv ri glvrughuhg frq0wlqxxp v|vwhpv1 Sk|vlfdo Uhylhz E/ 6<+49,/ 4<;<1

5<6

^45;` N1O1 Vfulyhqhu1 Wkh plfurvwuxfwxuh ri frqfuhwh1 Lq M1 Vndoq|/ hglwru/ Pd0

whuldov Vflhqfh ri Frqfuhwh/ yroxph LL/ sdjhv 45:~495/ Zhvwhuylooh/ Rklr/4<<41 Wkh Dphulfdq Fhudplfdo Vrflhw|1

^45<` W1P1 Vhpnry1 Uhfrlo0hpdqdwlrq wkhru| dssolhg wr udgrq uhohdvh iurp plq0hudo judlqv1 Jhrfklp1 Frvprfklp1 Dfwd/ 87/ 4<<31

^463` W1N1 Vkhuzrrg1 Pdvv Wudqvihu1 Pf0Judz Kloo Lqf1/ Orqgrq/ 4<:81

^464` V1H1 Vlprsrxorv dqg G1 Ohrqlgrx1 Rq wkh hpdqdwlrq ri udgrq lqwr wkhsruhv ri d vrolg pdwhuldo1 Dwrpnhuqhqhujlh0Nhuqwhfkqln/ 7</ 4<;91

^465` Q1W1 Vnlsshu1 Prqwh fduor vlpxodwlrq ri lqwhuod|hu prohfxodu vwuxfwxuh lqvzhoolqj fod| plqhudov1 Fod|v dqg Fod| Plqhudov/ 76+6,=5<7~636/ 4<<81

^466` K1 Vrudqwlq dqg I1 Vwhjhu1 Qdwxudo udglrdfwlylw| ri exloglqj pdwhuldov lqdxvwuld1 Udg1 Surw1 Grv1/ :+407,=8<~94/ 4<;51

^467` G1 Vwdx�hu1 Lqwurgxfwlrq wr Shufrodwlrq Wkhru|1 Wd|oru dqg Iudqflv Owg1/4<;81

^468` Do1 Vwhrsrh1 Frqvwuxfwlrq Pdwhuldov1 Hglwxud Whfkqlfd/ Exfkduhvw/ Urpd0qld/ 4<971 Lq Urpdqldq1

^469` S1 Vwrrs1 Uhvxowv ri wkh vhfrqg gxwfk qdwlrqdo vxuyh| rq udgrq lq gzhoolqjv1ULYP Uhsruw 94338;339/ Ulmnvlqvwlwxxw yrru Yronvjhvrqgkhlg hq Plolhx/Elowkryhq/ Wkh Qhwkhuodqgv1 Lq Gxwfk1

^46:` H1 Vwudqghq1 Wkh lq�xhqfh ri prlvwxuh dqg whpshudwxuh rq udgrq h{kdod0wlrq1 Udg1 Surw1 Grv1/ :+407,=88~8;/ 4<;71

^46;` \1 Vx}xnl1 Txdqwl�fdwlrq ri k|gudwlrq0khdw jhqhudwlrq surfhvv ri fhphqwlq frqfuhwh1 Frqfuhwh Oleudu| ri MVFH/ +49,=444~457/ 4<<31

^46<` V1 Wdodedql1 Qhz dgglwlyhv iru plqlpl}lqj fhphqw erg| shuphdelolw|1 Hq0huj| Vrxufhv/ 54+405,=496~4:9/ 4<<<1

^473` D1E1 Wdqqhu1 Udgrq pljudwlrq lq wkh jurxqg= D vxssohphqw uhylhz/ qdwxudoudgldwlrq hqylurqphqw LLL1 Whfkqlfdo Uhsruw FRQI0:;3755/ X1V1Ghsw1 riHqhuj|/ 4<:;1

^474` P1Z1 Wvr1 Udgrq uhohdvh iurp exloglqj pdwhuldov iurp krqj nrqj1 KhdowkSk|vlfv/ 9:+7,=6:;~6;7/ 4<<71

5<7 Eleolrjudsk|

^475` N1 Xoedn1 Udgrq h{kdodwlrq iurp vdpsohv ri frqfuhwh zlwk gl�huhqw srurvl0wlhv dqg �| dvk dgglwlyhv1 Udg1 Surw1 Grv1/ :+407,=78~7;/ 4<;51

^476` O1K1 Yddv1 Lqwhulp0phdvxulqj whfkqltxh iru wkh udgrq h{kdodwlrq ri exloglqjpdwhuldov1 Whfkqlfdo Uhsruw Qr1 943383335/ ULYP/ 4<<71

^477` N1 Ydq Euhxjho1 V|pxodwlrq ri K|gudwlrq dqg Irupdwlrq ri Vwuxfwxuh lq

Kdughqlqj Fhphqw0Edvhg Pdwhuldov1 SkG wkhvlv/ Ghoiw Whfkqrorjlfdo Lqvwl0wxwh/ wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ 4<<41

^478` H1 U1 Ydq ghu Juddi1 Dvvhvvphqw ri udgrq wljkwqhvv ri ydulrxv vdpsoh frq0wdlqhuv iru jdppd0ud| vshfwurphwu|1 NYL Lqwhuqdo Uhsruw V099/ Nhuqi|vlvfkYhuvqhoohu Lqvwlwxxw/ Jurqlqjhq/ wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ 53331

^479` H1 U1 Ydq ghu Juddi dqg L1 Fr}pxwd1 HUULFD udgrq0uhohdvh udwh lqwhufrp0sdulvrq1 Nyl dqqxdo uhsruw/ Nhuqi|vlvfk Yhuvqhoohu Lqvwlwxxw/ Jurqlqjhq/wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ 4<<<1

^47:` H1 U1 Ydq ghu Juddi dqg L1 Fr}pxwd1 Prghoolqj udgrq wudqvsruw lq frqfuhwh1NYL Lqwhuqdo Uhsruw U453/ Nhuqi|vlvfk Yhuvqhoohu Lqvwlwxxw/ Jurqlqjhq/ wkhQhwkhuodqgv/ 53341

^47;` H1 U1 Ydq ghu Juddi dqg U1 M1 gh Phlmhu1 D odujh0vfdoh vwxg| ri d phdvxuhdjdlqvw vrlo jdv udgrq1 Lo Qxryr Flphqwr/ 55F+607,=564~567/ 4<<<1

^47<` H1U1 Ydq ghu Juddi1 Fdoleudwlrq ri wkh NYL lqvwuxphqw wr phdvxuhudgrq h{kdodwlrq udwhv iurp exloglqj pdwhuldov xqghu frqwuroohg frqglwlrqv1NYL Lqwhuqdo Uhsruw U<</ Nhuqi|vlvfk Yhuvqhoohu Lqvwlwxxw/ Jurqlqjhq/ wkhQhwkhuodqgv/ 4<<;1

^483` H1U1 Ydq ghu Juddi dqg L1 Fr}pxwd1 Wkh lq�xhqfh ri glphqvlrqv dqg h�hf0wlyhqhvv ri irxu0vlgh fryhudjh ri frqfuhwh whvw fxehv rq wkh ghwhuplqdwlrq riwkhlu h{kdodwlrq udwhv1 NYL Lqwhuqdo Uhsruw U443/ Nhuqi|vlvfk YhuvqhoohuLqvwlwxxw/ Jurqlqjhq/ wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ 4<<<1

^484` H1U1 Ydq ghu Juddi dqg U1 M1 Gh Phlmhu1 Dssolfdwlrq ri d irlo rq wkh �rru rid fudzo0vsdfh lq frpelqdwlrq zlwk d yhqwlodwlrq v|vwhp dv d frxqwhuphdvxuhdjdlqvw udgrq lq�owudwlrq lq krxvhv1 NYL Lqwhuqdo Uhsruw U<8/ Nhuqi|vlvfkYhuvqhoohu Lqvwlwxxw/ Jurqlqjhq/ wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ 4<<:1 Lq Gxwfk1

5<8

^485` P1 Ydq ghu Sdo1 H{shulphqwdo vhw0xs iru phdvxulqj gl�xvlyh dqg dgyhf0wlyh wudqvsruw ri udgrq wkurxjk exloglqj pdwhuldov1 Vflhqfh ri wkh Wrwdo

Hqylurqphqw/ 5:5+406,=648~654/ 53341

^486` Z1 K1 Ydq ghu Vsrho1 Frpelqhg gl�xvlyh dqg dgyhfwlyh wudqvsruw ri udgrqlq d krprjhqhrxv froxpq ri gu| vdqg1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ :7+4,/ 4<<;1

^487` Z1 K1 Ydq ghu Vsrho1 Udgrq Wudqvsruw lq Vdqg/ d Oderudwru| Vwxg|1 SkGwkhvlv/ Whfkqlfdo Xqlyhuvlw| ri Hlqgkryhq/ wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ 4<<;1

^488` Z1K1 Ydq ghu Vsrho1 Gl�xvlyh wudqvsruw ri udgrq lq d krprjhqhrxv froxpqri gu| vdqg1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ :5+8,/ 4<<:1

^489` Z1 Ydq Glmn dqg S1 Gh Mrqj1 H{kdodwlrq udwhv ri udgrq iurp gxwfk exloglqjpdwhuldov dqg wkh lq�xhqfh ri frdwlqjv1 WQR uhsruw U;;2448D/ WQR/ Ghoiw/wkh Qhwkhuodqgv/ 4<;;1 Lq Gxwfk1

^48:` Z1 Ydq Glmn dqg S1 Gh Mrqj1 Ghwhuplqlqj wkh udgrq h{kdodwlrq udwh riexloglqj pdwhuldov xvlqj oltxlg vflqwloodwlrq frxqwlqj1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 94+7,/4<<41

^48;` Z1 Ydq Glmn dqg S1 Gh Mrqj1 Wkh h�hfw ri wkh frpsrvlwlrq dqg surgxf0wlrq surfhvvhv ri frqfuhwh rq wkh udgrq h{kdodwlrq udwh1 Hqylurqphqwdo

Lqwhuqdwlrqdo/ 55+Vxssohphqw 4,=V5;:~V5<6/ 4<<91

^48<` G1Z1 Ydq Nuhyhohq dqg S1M1 Kriw|}hu1 Surshuwlhv ri Sro|phuv/ Fruuhodwlrqvzlwk Fkhplfdo Vwuxfwxuh1 Hovhylhu/ Dpvwhugdp/ 4<:51

^493` O1 Yhqwxulql dqg P1 E1 Qlvwl1 Qdwxudo udglrdfwlylw| ri vrph eud}loldq exlog0lqj pdwhuldov1 Udg1 Surw1 Grv1/ :4+6,/ 4<<:1

^494` N1 Zhvfkh1 Rq vrph frqfuhwh surshuwlhv dv d ixqfwlrq ri wkh sruhv lqkdughqhg fhphqw sdvwh1 Lq Sruh Vwuxfwxuh dqg Surshuwlhv ri Pdwhuldov/fkdswhu LLL/ sdjhv G4::~G4;:1 Sudjxh Dfdghpld/ 4<:61

^495` G1 Zlqvorz dqg G1 Olx1 Wkh sruh vwuxfwxuh ri sdvwh lq frqfuhwh1 Fhphqwdqg Frqfuhwh Uhvhdufk/ 53+5,=55:~5;7/ 4<<31

^496` P1 Zrmfln1 Phdvxuhphqw ri udgrq gl�xvlrq dqg vroxelolw| frqvwdqwv lqphpeudqhv1 Qxfo1 Lqvwuxp1 Phwk1/ E94=;~44/ 4<<41

5<9 Eleolrjudsk|

^497` S1 Zrqj1 Frqgxfwlylw| dqg shuphdelolw| ri urfnv1 Sk|vlfdo Uhylhz E/63+44,/ 4<;71

^498` K1 \dpdqlvkl1 H�hfw ri kxplglw| rq udgrq h{kdodwlrq udwh iurp frqfuhwh1 LqUdgrq dqg Wkrurq lq wkh Kxpdq Hqylurqphqw/ sdjhv 75<~767/ Vlqjdsruh/4<<;1 Zruog Vflhqwl�f Sxeolvklqj1

^499` M1 I1 \rxqj1 Fdsloodu| srurvlw| lq k|gudwhg wulfdoflxp vlolfdwh sdvwhv1 Mrxu0qdo ri Srzghu Whfkqrorj|/ +<,=4:6~4:</ 4<:71

^49:` J1 U1 \rxqjtxlvw1 Gl�xvlrq dqg �rz ri jdvhv lq srurxv vrolgv1 Lq Iorz

Wkurxjk Srurxv Phgld/ Zdvklqjwrq/ 4<:31 Dphulfdq Fkhplfdo Vrflhw|1

^49;` N1 Q1 \x1 Wkh h�hfwv ri w|slfdo fryhulqj pdwhuldov rq wkh udgrq h{kdodwlrqudwh iurp frqfuhwh vxuidfhv1 Udg1 Surw1 Grv1/ 7;=69:~6:3/ 4<<61

^49<` N1 Q1 \x1 Wkh yduldwlrq ri udgrq h{kdodwlrq udwhv iurp exloglqj vxuidfhvri gl�huhqw djhv1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 9;+8,/ 4<<81

^4:3` U1 ]dohq1 Wkh Sk|vlfv ri Dpruskrxv Vrolgv1 Mrkq Zloh| dqg Vrqv/ 4<;61

^4:4` J1 ]dsdodf1 D wlph0ghshqghqw phwkrg iru fkdudfwhulvlqj wkh gl�xvlrq riuq0555 lq frqfuhwh1 Khdowk Sk|vlfv/ 78=6::~6;6/ 4<;61

�i_ih*@?_ti t@4i?�@||�?}

Khw grho ydq glw surhivfkuliw lv gh ixqgdphqwhoh nhqqlv ryhu surgxnwlh hqwudqvsruw ydq udgrq lq ehwrq wh yhujurwhq1 Gh}h nhqqlv ndq gdq whq jurqgvodjoljjhq ddq qlhxz wh rqwzlnnhohq phwkrghq rp gh udgrqdijliwh ydq ehwrq wh uh0gxfhuhq grru yhudqghulqjhq lq elmyrruehhog gh surgxnwlhwhfkqlhn ydq ehwrq rigrru khw jheuxln ydq h�hfwlhyh dighnpdwhuldohq1 Khw rqghu}rhn voxlw ddq elm khwkxlgljh vwuhyhq ydq gh Qhghuodqgvh ryhukhlg rp wh nrphq wrw hhq uhjxohulqj hq}r prjholmn uhgxfwlh ydq gh udgrqfrqfhqwudwlh elqqhqkxlv1 Lq Qhghuodqg ohyhuhqgh erxzpdwhuldohq hq lq khw elm}rqghu ehwrq gh jurrwvwh elmgudjh ddq gh}h frq0fhqwudwlh1

Lq glw surhivfkuliw lv khw wudqvsruw ydq udgrq lq ehwrq rs phvr0vfkddo qlyhdxdov hhq grru gl�xvlh jhgrplqhhug surfhv ehvfkuhyhq1 Gh ehvfkulmylqj ydq udgrq0gl�xvlh lq hhq krprjhhq sruhxv pdwhulddo +hhughu jhydolghhug yrru }dqg,/ ylqgwsoddwv yld hhq wlmgdikdqnholmnh gl�xvlhyhujholmnlqj zdduelm gulh idvhq lq khw phglxpehvfkrxzg zrughq wh zhwhq/ jdv/ zdwhu hq ydvwh vwri1 Gh}h yhujholmnlqj ehydwrrn gh surgxnwlh hq khw yhuydo ydq udgrq1 Yrru khw ehyhvwljhq ydq glw prghoyrru ehwrq/ lv jhghwdloohhugh lqirupdwlh qrglj ryhu gh udglrphwulvfkh hljhqvfkds0shq/ srurvlwhlw hq srulhjurrwwh yhugholqj/ yrfkwyhugholqj/ udgrqhpdqdwlh0 hq gli0ixvlhfr�h�fl�hqw ydq ehwrqfrpsrqhqwhq hq ehwrq1

]rdov lq dooh qdwxxuolmnh pdwhuldohq/ lv gh eurq ydq udgrq lq ehwrq/ khw ud0glxp gdw lq gh yhuvfkloohqgh frpsrqhqwhq +}dqg/ julqg hq fhphqw, ddqzh}lj lv1Rq}h phwlqjhq wrqhq gdw gh udglxpfrqfhqwudwlh ydq fhphqw hhq rugh ydq jurrwwhkrjhu lv gdq glh ydq gh dqghuh frpsrqhqwhq1 Lq gurjh srhghuyrup khhiw fhphqwhhq yulm odjh udgrqxlwvwrrw/ pddu qd yhuzhunlqj ohyhuw fhphqw ydq dooh frpsr0

5<:

5<; Qhghuodqgvh vdphqydwwlqj

qhqwhq gh jurrwvwh elmgudjh ddq gh udgrqh{kdodwlh1 Khw udglxpjhkdowh ydq ehwrqndq dov jhzrjhq vrp ydq khw udglxpjhkdowh ydq gh frpsrqhqwhq ehuhnhqg zru0ghq1 Yrru gh udgrqh{kdodwlhvqhokhlg jhogw glw rrn plwv khw jhk|gudwhhugh fhphqwzrugw phhjhqrphq1 Gxv wlmghqv khw pdnhq ydq ehwrq zrugw gh udgrqh{kdodwlhv0qhokhlg hhq rugh ydq jurrwwh jurwhu1 Gh udgrqh{kdodwlhvqhokhlg lv dikdqnholmn ydqgh vwuxfwxuhoh hljhqvfkdshq ydq khw sruhx}h pdwhulddo1 Lq khw jhydo ydq gurrjfhphqw/ lv gh vwuxfwxxu ydq gh nruuhowmhv yhho glfkwhu gdq glh ydq gh jhk|gud0whhugh fhphqwsdvwd zddulq jhgxuhqgh gh k|gudwlh }rjhqddpgh jhosrul�hq zrughqjhyrupg1 Hhq jrhg ehjuls ydq khw rqwvwddq ydq gh plfurvwuxfwxxu lq ehwrq hq ghlqyorhg ydq k|gudwlh hq yrfkwwudqvsruw rs glw surfhv lv gdq rrn ydq ixqgdphqwhhoehodqj rp khw udgrqwudqvsruw lq ehwrq wh ehvfkulmyhq1

Xlwjddqgh ydq gh k|srwkhvh gdw khw klhu jheuxlnwh jjev +jurxqg judqx0odwhg eodvwixuqdfh vodj, ehwrq dov hhq krprjhhq sruhxv phglxp jhprghoohhugndq zrughq/ lv phw khw ehwrqprghoohulqjvsurjudppd GxFRP hhq yroxphwulvfkhsrurvlwhlw ydq flufd 43( yrru glw ehwrq ehuhnhqg1 Hhq uhvxowddw gdw lq jrhghryhuhhqvwhpplqj lv phw rq}h phwlqjhq1 Gh GxFRP0ehuhnhqlqjhq wrqhq rrn ddqgdw lq ehwrq gh wrwdoh srurvlwhlw lv yhughhog lq jhosrul�hq +73(,/ fdsloodluh srul�hq+68(, hq }rjhqddpgh lqwhuod|hu srurvlwhlw +58(,1 Gh ndudnwhulvwlhnh srulhvwuddoydq gh jhosrul�hq lv rqjhyhhu 433b p whuzlmo glh yrru gh fdsloodluhq wxvvhq 433.0433H p oljw1 Khw srulhyroxph lq jjev ehwrq ndq zdduvfklmqolmn khw ehvw ehvfkuhyhqzrughq grru fdsloodluh srul�hq glh rsjhyxog }lmq phw jhosrul�hq/ zddugrru hhq }hhunurqnholjh plfurvwuxfwxxu rqwvwddw1

Jhosrul�hq }lmq hhq surgxnw ydq fhphqwk|gudwdwlh hq kxq wrwdoh yroxph lvdikdqnholmn ydq gh yhukrxglqj wxvvhq zdwhu hq fhphqw +zdwhu0fhphqwidfwru, elmkhw ddqpdnhq ydq khw ehwrq1 Zdwhu vshhow qlhw doohhq hhq ehodqjulmnh uro lq khwehjlq ydq k|gudwdwlh +vdphqvwhoolqj hq xlwkdughq2fxulqj ydq ehwrq, pddu rrnjhgxuhqgh gh jhkhoh ohyhqvgxxu1 Yhudqghulqjhq lq gh uhodwlhyh yrfkwljkhlg ydqgh rpjhylqj ohlghq wrw yhudqghulqjhq ydq khw lqzhqglj yrfkwjhkdowh hq yrfkw0yhugholqj hq eh��qyorhghq gdduphh gh yhuvfkloohqgh wudqvsruw0sdudphwhuv1

Lq glw surhivfkuliw lv gh yrfkwdikdqnholmnkhlg ydq gh udgrqgl�xvlhfr�h�fl�hqwydq ehwrq jhphwhq1 Gh}h dikdqnholmnkhlg olmnw hqljv}lqv rs glh yrru }dqg phwkhw yhuvfklo gdw gh zddughq yrru ehwrq wzhh rughq ydq jurrwwh nohlqhu }lmq1 Glwlv hhq uhfkwvwuhhnv jhyroj ydq gh nurqnholjh plfurvwuxfwxxu ydq ehwrq hq ydq ghddqzh}ljkhlg ydq jhosrul�hq1 Glh srul�hq }lmq }r nohlq gdw qlhw gh jheuxlnholmnhgl�xvlh pddu gh }rjhqddpgh Nqxgvhq gl�xvlh rswuhhgw1

Gh yrfkwdikdqnholmnkhlg ydq gh udgrqhpdqdwlh ydq ehwrq lv jhkhho yhuvfklo0ohqg ydq glh ydq }dqg1 Yrru }dqg zrugw do elm hhq odjh yrfkwyhu}dgljlqj ydq gh

5<<

srul�hq hhq pd{lpdoh zddugh yrru gh udgrqhpdqdwlh jhyrqghq glh frqvwdqw eol0miw wrw krjhuh yhu}dgljlqjvjudghq1 Yrru ehwrq vwlmjw gh udgrqhpdqdwlh ryhu khwjhkhoh wudmhfw ydq yronrphq gurrj wrw yroohglj zdwhuyhu}dgljg/ olqhdlu1 Udgrqgdw jhsurgxfhhug zrugw lq khw yhuydo ydq udglxp nulmjw hhq }rjhqddpgh *uhfrlo*0hqhujlh phh1 Phw glh hqhujlh ndq khw udgrqdwrrp hhq divwdqg ydq 96pp lqoxfkw hq 314pp lq zdwhu d�hjjhq yrrugdw khw dwrrp yulmzho wrw uxvw lv jhnrphq1Gxv lq gurrj pdwhulddo ehvwddw yrru gh srul�hq glh hhq nohlqhuh gldphwhu kheehqgdq 96pp gh ndqv gdw khw udgrqdwrrp gh ryhuoljjhqgh srulhzdqg elqqhqgulqjw1Khw udgrqdwrrp }lw gdq lq gh plqhudoh pdwul{ rsjhvorwhq hq lv h�hfwlhi qlhw phhuehvfklneddu yrru wudqvsruw1 Lqglhq khw pdwhulddo yrfkwlj lv }do hhq zdwhuoddjmhrs gh srulhzdqg lq khw dojhphhq yrogrhqgh }lmq rp khw udgrqdwrrp wh vwrs0shq hq gdq lv khw udgrqdwrrp/ yld xlwzlvvholqj wxvvhq oxfkw0 hq zdwhuidvh/ zhoehvfklneddu yrru wudqvsruw1 ]dqg khhiw lq khw dojhphhq hhq qdxzh srulhyhugho0lqj/ glw ehwhnhqw gdw elm wrhqhphqg yrfkwjhkdowh dooh srul�hq lq gh}hoigh pdwhjhyxog }lmq hq elm hhq ehsddogh zdwhuyhu}dgljlqj }do do khw udgrq gdw hpdqhhuwlq gh zdwhuidvh jhydqjhq zrughq1 Gh udgrqhpdqdwlh zrugw ydqdi hhq ehsddoghyhu}dgljlqjvjuddg do frqvwdqw1 Ehwrq khhiw hhq khoh euhgh srulhyhugholqj/ gxvelm vwlmjhqgh yhu}dgljlqj zrughq vwhhgv qlhxzh srul�hq jhyxog/ ehjlqqhqg elm ghsrul�hq phw gh nohlqvwh gldphwhu1 Glw }do ohlghq wrw gh zddujhqrphq olqhdluhdikdqnholmnkhlg ydq khw yrfkwjhkdowh ydq gh udgrqhpdqdwlh xlw ehwrq1

Khw jhphwhq yrfkwdikdqnholmnh jhgudj ydq udgrqgl�xvlh0 hq 0hpdqdwlhfr�hi�fl0�hqwhq lv jheuxlnw lq khw udgrqwudqvsruwprgho rp gh yhudqghulqj ydq gh udgrqh{0kdodwlhvqhokhlg ydq ehwrq dov ixqfwlh ydq yrfkwjhkdowh wh ehvfkulmyhq1 Wxvvhq khw}r jhprghoohhugh jhgudj hq khw jhphwhq jhgudj zhug }hhu jrhgh ryhuhhqvwhpplqjjhyrqghq1 Gh}h ryhuhhqvwhpplqj zlmvw hurs gdw rivfkrrq ehwrq lq sulqflsh hhqfrpsoh{ hq khwhurjhhq sruhxv pdwhulddo lv/ hu rqghu vrppljh rpvwdqgljkhghq/hhq jrhgh ehvfkulmylqj ydq gh udgrqhljhqvfkdsshq ydq ehwrq yhunuhjhq ndq zru0ghq1 Gh udgrqdijliwh ydq ehwrq ndq jrhg jhprghoohhug zrughq rs edvlv ydq ghpxowl0idvh udgrqwudqvsruwyhujholmnlqj1 Hhq frpelqdwlh ydq hhq udgrqwudqvsruw0prgho hq hhq prgho yrru ehwrqplfurvwuxfwxxu }do wrw hhq nudfkwlj kxosplgghoohlghq gdw elm khw rqwzhushq ydq ehwrqvrruwhq phw hhq odjh udgrqsurgxfwlh jh0euxlnw ndq zrughq1 Yhuehwhulqj ydq gh prghoohulqj prhw krrig}dnholmn lq hhqehwhuh vfkdwwlqj ydq gh lqyrhusdudphwhuv jh}rfkw zrughq/ lq khw elm}rqghu ghyrfkwdikdqnholmnkhlg ydq gh hpdqdwlhfr�h�fl�hqw hq gh yrfkwyhugholqj lq khw eh0wrq1 Rrn gh hyhqwxhoh dgvruswlh ydq udgrq ddq khw lqzhqglj rsshuyodnwh ydqehwrq/ wrw qx wrh yhurqwdfkw}ddpg/ glhqw qdghu rqghu}rfkw wh zrughq1

Yrru gh prghoohulqj ydq elqqhqoxfkw udgrqfrqfhqwudwlhv lv khw ihlw ydq eh0

633 Qhghuodqgvh vdphqydwwlqj

odqj gdw rq}h ehuhnhqlqjhq ohlghq wrw hhq pd{lpdoh udgrqdijliwh ydq ehwrq lqhhq zrqlqj elm zddughq ydq gh uhodwlhyh yrfkwljkhlg wxvvhq 63( hq :3(1 Yhughuoddw hhq prghoehuhnhqlqj ydq gh elmgudjh ydq erxzpdwhuldohq ddq gh elqqhqoxfkwudgrqfrqfhqwudwlhv }lhq gdw gh}h whqplqvwh 83( odjhu xlwydow gdq gh vfkdwwlqjydq khw wzhhgh Qhghuodqgvh udgrqrqghu}rhn1 Glw ndq zlm}hq rs hhq qrj rqehn0hqg wudqvsruwsurfhv gdw hhq ehodqjulmnh elmgudjh ohyhuw ddq gh udgrqfrqfhqwudwlhelqqhqkxlv1 Rqv prgho lv jhedvhhug rs udgrqwudqvsruw gdw xlwvoxlwhqg grru gli0ixvlh zrugw ehsddog1 Khw lv prjholmn gdw guxnyhuvfkloohq ryhu khw erxzpdwhulddowrfk hhq ehodqjulmn lqyorhg nxqqhq kheehq1 Yrru gh udgrqeurqvwhunwh ydq gherghp khhiw hhughu rqghu}rhn odwhq }lhq gdw glw hhq rugh0ydq0jurrwwh h�hfw ndq}lmq1 Lqglhq hhq ghujholmn guxndikdqnholmn phfkdqlvph rrn lq erxzpdwhuldohq+ehwrq, hhq uro vshhow/ ndq glw +jhghhowholmn, khw yhuvfklo wxvvhq gh ehuhnhqlqjhqhq gh phwlqjhq yhunoduhq1

Hhq dowhuqdwlhyh phwkrgh whu yhuplqghulqj ydq udgrqdijliwh xlw ehwrq lv khwdighnnhq ydq khw rsshuyodn1 Gh pdwh ydq uhgxnwlh ydq yhuvfkloohqgh frdwlqjvhq irolhv yrru gh udgrqdijliwh ydq ehwrq lv lq glw surhivfkuliw jhphwhq1 Rq}hfrqfoxvlh lv gdw gh phhvwh *hhqyrxgljh* pdqlhuhq ydq dighnnhq ydq ehwrq qlhwwrw jrhgh uhpplqj ydq gh udgrqxlwvwrrw ohlghq1 Hhq elmqd wrwdoh uhgxfwlh ydqgh udgrqdijliwh zhug jhphwhq yrru }rjhqddpgh ckljk0shuirupdqfh* sro|phhu0phpeudqhq +SPPD hq SSWD,1 Yrru khw rqwzhus ydq udgrquhpphqgh sro|phhu0phpeudqhq/ zrugw lq glw surhivfkuliw hhq phwkrgh ehvfkuhyhq glh jhedvhhug lvrs }rzho Prohfxodluh Prghoohulqj dov Prqwh Fduor phwkrghq1

Khw lq glw surhivfkuliw ehvfkuhyhq rqghu}rhn khhiw dov grho xlwjheuhlghuh nhq0qlv wh yhuzhuyhq ydq udgrqwudqvsruw lq ehwrq1 Yrru glw grho }lmq dooh gulh vrruwhqphwkrghq jheuxlnw glh whjhqzrruglj lq gh zhwhqvfkds ehvfklneddu }lmq= h{shul0phqwhq/ wkhrulh hq frpsxwhuvlpxodwlhv1 Gh frpelqdwlh ydq gh}h gulh phwkrghqkhhiw hhq ehwhu ehhog jhjhyhq ydq gh i|vlfd ydq udgrqwudqvsruw lq ehwrq hq lqphpeudqhq1 Wrhsdvvlqjhq ydq gh yhunuhjhq nhqqlv nxqqhq ohlghq wrw uhgxnwlhydq gh udgrqxlwvwrrw ydq ehwrq hq }r wrw hhq prjholmnh yhuodjlqj ydq udgrqfrq0fhqwudwlhv elqqhqkxlv1

W? �*Lt�?}��

L duulyhg lq wkh Qhwkhuodqgv rq wkh 8|� ri Mdqxdu| 4<<: lq wkh plggoh rid Gxwfk zlqwhu1 L uhphpehu zkloh vhdwhg dw p| zlqgrz vhdw/ dv wkh wudlq zdvpdnlqj lwv zd| iru Jurqlqjhq/ L dgpluhg wkh xqiroglqj odqgvfdsh/ doprvw hqwluho|fryhuhg e| d wklq od|hu ri vqrz1 L zdv ryhuzkhophg e| wkh idfw wkdw dq|zkhuhL orrnhg/ dv idu dv L frxog vhh/ wkh krul}rq zdv hqgohvv1 Vlqfh wkhq/ zkhqhyhu Lwklqn ri iuhhgrp/ wklv lpdjh frphv lqwr p| plqg1

Lq Jurqlqjhq/ L phw Hplho dw wkh wudlq vwdwlrq1 L frxog eduho| uhfrjql}h klpdv kh zdv zhdulqj jodvvhv1 Wkh dwprvskhuh lq Jurqlqjhq zdv mr|rxv dqg Hplhoh{sodlqhg ph wkdw lw zdv ehfdxvh ri wkh Hoi Vwhghq Wrfkw +Hohyhq Flw| Wrxu,zklfk lv rqh ri wkh eljjhvw hyhqwv lq wkh Qruwkhuq surylqfhv ri wkh Qhwkhuodqgvdw zlqwhu wlph +li wkh fkdqqhov duh iur}hq$,1 Wkdw hyhqlqj L zdv lqylwhg ryhuwr Hplho*v krxvh iru glqqhu dqg dwh iru wkh �uvw wlph chhq ohfnhu huzwhqvrhs*1Diwhuzdugv/ Hplho h{sodlqhg wkh Udgrq vlwxdwlrq lq wkh Qhwkhuodqgv dqg vrphghwdlov ri p| Sk1G1 surmhfw1 Vwduwlqj zlwk wkdw gd|/ lw zdv Hplho zkrp L uholhgrq prvw1 Zkhwkhu L kdg d txhvwlrq uhodwhg wr sk|vlfv/ dq xqihdvleoh uhvhdufklghd/ sureohpv zlwk wkh udgrq0uhohdvh udwh vhwxs/ rwkhu oderudwru| ghylfhv ru p|frpsxwhu1 Lw zdv Hplho zkr qrw rqo| hqfrxudjhg ph wr nhhs d eurdg ylhz risk|vlfv/ exw dovr khoshg ph wr nhhs irfxvhg rq p| zrun1 Kh jdyh ph wkh iuhhgrpwr cpdqdjh* p| surmhfw/ exw zdv dozd|v zloolqj wr khos zkhq L qhhghg lw1 Hplhodozd|v h{sodlqhg pdwwhuv wr ph zlwk wkh rxwprvw sdwlhqfh dqg lq d yhu| rujdql}hgpdqqhu1 Hyhu| wlph zh wdonhg/ L glvfryhuhg vrphwklqj qhz zklfk wr ohduq iurpklp/ derxw krz wr eh d jrrg dqg vhulrxv vflhqwlvw +zlwkrxw orvlqj p| kxpru,1Dv phprudeoh surri L kdyh nhsw doo wkh wh{w �ohv frqwdlqlqj rxu/ vrphwlphv orqj/

634

635 Lq Forvlqj111

glvfxvvlrqv ryhu wkh lqwhuqhw1 Hplho/ kduwholmn ehgdqnw yrru doohv zdw mlm lq plmkhew jhlqyhvwhhug/ mh wlmg/ mh nhqqlv/ mh hqwkrxvldvph hq mh yhuwurxzhq1

Dv doo xqlyhuvlw| surihvvruv duh/ Ure/ p| phqwru/ lv d yhu| exv| shuvrq/ wrr1Krzhyhu/ L dp vxuh wkdw hyhq zlwk klv frpsoh{ vfkhgxoh kh zdv hyhu zdwfkixo rip| shuvrqdo surjuhvv/ dv zhoo dv/ wkh hyroxwlrq ri p| uhvhdufk1 Hvshfldoo| lq wkhodwhu vwdjhv/ lq zulwlqj p| wkhvlv/ Ure suryhg wr eh d yhu| h{ljhqw dqg gloljhqwuhdghu1 Qrw rqo| fruuhfwlqj hyhq p| vpdoohvw XN Hqjolvk vshoolqj plvwdnhv/ exwdovr surylglqj lghdv wr lpsuryh wkh fodulw| ri wkh wh{w1 L zdqw wr wkdqn Ureiru wkh h�ruw ri uhdglqj vhyhudo wlphv p| pdqxvfulsw1 L zloo nhhs lq plqg klvtxrwdwlrq ri Vfkloohu= cLq ghu Ehvfku�dqnxqj }hljw vlfk ghu Phlvwhu*1

L zrxog dovr olnh wr wkdqn Surihvvruv Ydq Euhxjho/ Khqgulnv dqg Orhkqhu1Iluvw iru krqrulqj ph e| dffhswlqj wr eh phpehuv ri p| wkhvlv frpplwwhh1 Zklfkfduulhg/ qrw rqo| wkh uhvsrqvlelolw| ri fduhixoo| uhdglqj p| pdqxvfulsw/ exw/ dovrtxhvwlrqlqj wkh vflhqwl�f uhvhdufk1

Lq wkh oderudwru|/ lw lv Urq wkdw L kdyh wr wkdqn iru doo klv khos zlwk wkhwhfkqlfdo ghwdlov1 Kh dozd|v nqhz zkhuh wkh wklqjv zhuh wkdw L zdv orrnlqj iru1Pdq| wkdqnv wr doo wkh shrsoh lq wkh NYL zrunvkrs/ zkr khoshg ph lq ydulrxvwhfkqlfdo vlwxdwlrqv L zdv wu|lqj wr sxuvxh1

L irxqg wkh frqfuhwh plfurvwuxfwxuh prgholqj surjudp/ GxFRP/ rq wkh lqwhu0qhw/ dw wkh vlwh ri wkh Wrn|r Whfkqlfdo Xqlyhuvlw|1 Lw zdv Suri1 Nrlfkl Pdhndzdwkdw L frqwdfwhg yld h0pdlo dqg wkdw vhqw ph wkh GxFRP frgh iru xvh wrjhwkhuzlwk dq h{sodqdwru| errn1 Wrjhwkhu zlwk Gu1 Whwvx|d Lvklgd/ wkh| dqvzhuhgpdq| ri p| txhvwlrqv1 Qrw rqo| wkh rqhv L kdg derxw wkh frgh/ exw dovr derxwwkh uhvxowv L zdv rewdlqlqj1 L zdqw wr wkdqn erwk ri wkhp iru whdfklqj ph krzwr xvh GxFRP1 Krshixoo|/ wkh| zloo frqvlghu lqfoxglqj udgrq wudqvsruw lq wkhixwxuh ghyhorsphqw ri wkh frgh1

Gxulqj p| zrunsodfhphqw dqg p| h{whqghg vwd| dv d ylvlwru khuh dw Fdowhfk/L zdqw wr wkdqn Suri1 Zlooldp cEloo* +dv zh d�hfwlrqdwho| fdoo klp, Jrggdugiru dffhswlqj ph dv dq dssuhqwlfh �uvw dqg odwhu rq dv d srvw0grf lq klv jurxs1Dovr L zrxog olnh wr wkdqn Gu1 Pdulr Eodqfr iru klv ryhuzkhoplqj rswlplvp dqgfrq�ghqfh wkdw L zloo pdvwhu Prohfxodu Prgholqj rqh gd|1 Wklv prwlydwhg ph dorw1 Dgglwlrqdo wkdqnv wr p| qhz froohdjxhv +Ydoh/ Dohmdqgur/ Vkldqj0Wdl/ Vhxqj0Vrrq/ Wdklu, iru wkhlu vxssruw dqg vxjjhvwlrqv/ dqg wkh lqwhuhvwlqj glvfxvvlrqvzh kdyh kdg gxulqj dqg rxwvlgh ri rxu uhjxodu phhwlqjv1 Ndwh wkdqnv iru doowkh sdshu zrun |rx �{hg iru ph$ Wr doo DUFD� phpehuv dqg iulhqgv khuh lqSdvdghqd= lw zdv ixq wr eh zlwk |rx$

�A�i �ttLU�@|�L? Lu +L4@?�@?t @| �@*|iU�

636

L zrxog dovr olnh wr wkdqn wkh shrsoh zkr jxlgh wkh gluhfwlrq ri wkh NYL dqgIDQWRP/ hvshfldoo| wr Suri1 P1 Kdudnhk dqg Gu1 P1 Nrrpdqv1 Wkh| vxffhhghgwr fuhdwh dq lqwhuqdwlrqdo hqylurqphqw zklfk doorzv Sk1G1 vwxghqwv dqg vflhq0wlvwv iurp ydulrxv xqlyhuvlwlhv qrw rqo| wr lqwhudfw gxulqj wkh IDQWRP vfkrrozhhnv/ exw dovr wkurxjk zrunsodfhphqwv lq rwkhu oderudwrulhv dqg xqlyhuvlwlhvwkurxjkrxw wkh zruog1

Lw zrxog kdyh ehhq gl�fxow wr vroyh rq p| rzq doo wkh dgplqlvwudwlyh sureohpvrqh qrupdoo| hqfrxqwhuv zkhq olylqj lq d iruhljq frxqwu|/ li L zrxog qrw kdyh kdgwkh dgylfh ri Pdumdq Uxlwhu/ Pduld Elhehu/ Julhwmh/ Uldqqh/ Mdqwlqd dqg doo wkhshrsoh iurp wkh �qdqfldo dgplqlvwudwlrq ri wkh NYL1 Krzhyhu/ L prvw wurxeohgKlogh1 L dp vxuh vkh nqhz wkdw hyhu| wlph L zdv nqrfnlqj dw khu grru/ lw zdvfhuwdlqo| wr dvn khu djdlq iru d sdshu wr rewdlq d ylvd ru dq dgylfh krz wr vroyhvrph qhz wd{ sureohp1 Wkh shuvrq |rx phhw �uvw hyhu| pruqlqj dw wkh NYL lvShwhu Phnhv1 Lw zdv hlwkhu klp ru Hgglh Odwxpdohd/ wkdw dozd|v kdg d vwru| wrwhoo ru d wls rq vrph sudfwlfdo lqirupdwlrq1

Ehvlghv vflhqfh/ froohjldolw| dqg iulhqgvkls duh dvshfwv ri vrfldo olih/ wkdw rqhvkrxog qrw qhjohfw1 L dp kdss|/ L phw qrw rqo| wkh vwxghqwv lq rxu jurxs +Fdwkhu0lqh/ Fhflold/ Kduulhw/ Lqpd/ Sdwulfn/ Slhwhu/ Urqdog/ Wlqr/ Zlp, exw dovr wkh rwkhuUrpdqldq vwxghqwv/ iurp zkrp L ohduqhg sudfwlfdo wklqjv +olnh iru h{dpsoh krzwr �{ d elnh*v �dw wluh, dv zhoo dv pdq| rwkhu lpsruwdqw olih pdwwhuv1 P| ehvwiulhqgv/ Pduld dqg Iudqn> Kdqqlh/ Ndulq dqg Hulf/ wkdqn |rx iru doo wkh wlph zhvshqw wrjhwkhu$

Dv d �qdo wkrxjkw/ lv wkh idfw wkdw L dp d yhu| kdss| shuvrq wr kdyh vxfkd zrqghuixo idplo|1 P| ghdu sduhqwv/ Lohdqd dqg Dxjxvwlq/ lw*v |rx wkdw L kdyhohduqhg iurp/ ehwzhhq pdq| rwkhu wklqjv/ wr eh hqwkxvldvwlf lq hyhu|wklqj L gr$P| ehoryhg kxvedqg Erjgdq/ wkdqn |rx iru dozd|v wu|lqj wr gr |rxu ehvw lqxqghuvwdqglqj dqg vxssruwlqj ph$ P| sduhqwv lq odz/ Dqd dqg Lrq/ |rxu srvlwlyhhqfrxudjhphqwv zhuh dozd|v zhofrphg1 Uldqqh dqg Mrkdqqlhn/ zlwk |rx/ rxuidplo| kdv h{whqghg rxwvlgh wkh erughuv ri Urpdqld$ L krsh |rx zloo frqwlqxh wrrujdql}h qlfh h{fxuvlrqv iru iruhljq vwxghqwv lq wkh Qhwkhuodqgv1

L pryhg iurp wkh Qhwkhuodqgv wrzdugv wkh vxqqlhu Fdoliruqld/ iroorzlqj shu0kdsv wkh idvw prylqj forxgv rq wkh Gxwfk vn|/ exw wkhvh irxu |hduv vshqw lq wkhQhwkhuodqgv/ qr pdwwhu zkdw L gr/ zloo dozd|v uhpdlq sduw ri ph1 Olnh wkh pdq|dqg fkdqjlqj idfhwv ri d gldprqg1

Sdvdghqd/ 6o_ ri Rfwrehu/ 5334

university of groningen radon generation and …surprwru= suri1 gu1 u1m1 gh phlmhu uhihuhq=w gu1 h1...

Documents