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Expert Working Group Meeting onUniversal Access to Modern Energy Services, Renewable Energy, Energy Efficiency and Cleaner Use of Fossil Fuels

UNCC, Bangkok 14 December 2017

Expert Group Meeting on Universal Access to Modern Energy Services, Renewable Energy,Energy Efficiency and Cleaner Use of Fossil Fuels

Accelerating

the energy transition


Trends in the energy sector

Global energy mix still dependent on conventional non-renewable energy

But in the electricity sector renewable energy accounts for

the majority of new capacity installed every year


Ongoing power sector transformation

Dramatic increase of RE in the global generation mix

RE capacity installed in year 2016:

71 GW solar51 GW wind

30 GW hydropower9 GW biomass

◉ Around 25% renewable power generation share worldwide


RE deployment

Region’s Share in Global RE

~40% hydropower~ 42% solar & wind~30% geothermal &

bioenergy

817 GW38% of World Total


Renewable energy potential

Irena.org/globalatlas


RE Costs - Trends

Levelised costs of electricity for utility scale power (ranges and averages), 2010 and 2016

costing.irena.org


Key role of enabling policies

0

20

40

60

80

100

2005 2010 2015

FIT (FIP)

RPO

Auctions

Number of countries with renewable energy policies, by type

Types of renewable energy policies and measures


Renewable Energy Auctions

RE Auctions - Recent highlights


Policy trends - Auctions

Evolution of utility-scale solar PV prices in selected countries


The power sector transition

Annual gross aggregated electricity production from gas-fired, solar and wind electricity plants in the European Union

Major shift in the EU over the past 20 years


Increasing generation from VRE


Need for flexibility


Crucial role of transmission

and distribution grids

Adapted from CESP, MAVIR, PSE SA and SEPS, 2013

Average unscheduled cross-border power flows from Germany (MW) (2012)


Rethinking distribution networks and distributed energy resources

• Take into consideration benefits for the consumers and for the system as a whole

• Crucial role of distribution networks…

• ….and Smart systems

Sample day load profile and self consumption from PV for a plastic manufacturing company

Distributed generation, demand response, distributed storage, smart systems, electric vehicles will play a fundamental role in the power system transition


Off-grid RE for energy access

IOREC 2012 : Ghana IOREC 2014 : Philippines IOREC 2016 : Kenya


Renewable energy jobs

globally today

Employment by Country

Source: IRENA (2017), Renewable Energy and Jobs – Annual Review 2017

Including Large Hydropower

⬆1.1%Excluding Large

Hydropower

⬆2.8%

THANK YOU


Targets in the global renewable energy landscape

173 countrieshave at least one type of renewable energy target

– up from 43 in 2005

Source: IRENA (2015), Renewable energy target setting.


Ambitious acceleration needed

To meet sustainable development goals and decarbonise global energy use, renewables need to be scaled up significantly.


Flexibility and Market Design

Net load ramps for different penetration levels of solar PV

CAISO - California (CAISO, 2016)ERCOT – Texas (MIT, 2015)


Auctions strengths and weaknesses

Wea

knes

ses

Provide greater certainty regarding prices and quantities

Enable commitments and transparency

Are associated with relatively high transaction costs for both developer and auctioneer

Risk of underbuilding and delays

Based on REN21 Global Status Report (2005 to 2016)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Number of countries that have adopted auctions

Flexibility in the design according to conditions and objectives

Permit real price discovery

Stre

ngt

hs

Auctions


Key role of technology innovation

Enabling Infrastruc-

ture

Business Models

Market regulation

System Operation

Electric Vehicles

Digitalization - IoT

Platform business model

Decentralized system

Value spatial

complementarities -

interconnections

Value

complementarities

in VRE

Electrification of other

sectors

Encourage Flexibility RE

Tech.


Emerging Innovations:E-mobility

Storage and Electric Vehicles Smart Charging (mobile storage)

Grid Services:

• Primary and secondary reserves:

• Enhanced Frequency Response

• Frequency Containment Reserve

• Frequency Restoration Reserve

• Energy Shifting

Behind-the-meter:

• Solar self consumption

• Community Storage

• Increased Power Quality

• Peak shaving

Grid to Vehicle (G2V):

• Load management: peak shifting

Vehicle to Grid (V2G):

• Primary and secondary reserves

• Other ancillary services

• Energy shifting

Vehicle to Home (V2H):

• Solar self consumption

• Increased Power Quality

• Peak shaving

Provide flexibility to the grid


Not only solar and wind…

STABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCE AVAILABLE 24/7

HIGH AVAILABILITY

FACTORS (~90%) FOR

BASE LOAD AND/OR

ANCILLARY SERVICES

NEGLIGIBLE

ENVIRONMENTAL AND

VISUAL IMPACT

REDUCED ENERGY

DEPENDENCY, STABLE JOBS AND

LOCAL ECONOMIC

DEVELOPMENT

Geothermal energy: main benefits

Geothermal heated greenhouse in Hveragerdi, Iceland


Why the modest growth?

HIGH UPFRONT COSTS AND RISKS

ASSOCIATED WITH RESOURCE ASSESSMENT

POLICY

UNCERTAINTY

ENVIRONMENTAL

CONCERNS AND

LICENSING

SHORTAGE OF SKILLED

PROFESSIONAL

LACK OF INSTITUTIONAL

CAPACITY

Can international cooperation and partnerships help overcome key geothermal challenges?


The role of Geothermal

Global Geothermal Alliance is the platform for improved dialogue and coordinated action among key geothermal stakeholders to scale up geothermal deployment

A Joint Communiqué issued at the GGA Launch

➢ Neutrality and transparency

➢ Build on what is on the ground and scale up

➢ No bureaucracy

➢ transformative potential

➢ Unlocking projects facing policy, legal, regulatory, fiscal, funding, capacity building challenges

Geothermal Power Installed Capacity Worldwide

6,832 7,972 8,93310,897 12,635

63,175

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

MW

by 2030Up to 5x geothermal power

More than 2x geothermal heat


Strong Commitment to GGA

Over 70 Members and PartnersGGA MEMBERS - 42 COUNTRIES ACCROS THE GLOBE

GGA PARTNERS – 31 INSTITUTIONS ACROSS

THE GLOBE

• Argentina• Bolivia• Chile• Colombia• Costa Rica• Ecuador• El Salvador• Guatemala• Honduras• Mexico• Nicaragua• Peru• Saint Vincent & Grenadines• USA

• IDB• OAS• US Geothermal Association• US Energy Association• Canadian Geothermal

Association

AMERICAS / CARIBBEAN

• France• Iceland• Italy• Netherlands• Poland• Romania• Switzerland• Turkey • Nordic Development Fund• European Geothermal Energy Council• GeoEnergy Celle e.V. (Germany)• Iceland Geothermal Cluster• GeoDeep (France)• Geothermal Power Plants Investors

Association (Turkey)

EUROPE

• IRENA• International Geothermal Association• IsDB• UN Environment• WB ESMAP

GLOBAL

• Burundi• Comoros• Djibouti• Egypt• Kenya• Tanzania• Uganda• Zambia• Zimbabwe

• AfDB• AUC• EAPP• NEPAD• RCREEE• SAPP

AFRICA

• India• Indonesia• Malaysia• Pakistan• Philippines

ASIA

• Fiji• New Zealand• Papua New Guinea• Solomon Islands• Tonga• Vanuatu

• SPC

PACIFIC / OCEANIA


GGA Action Plan and priorities

Adopted by GGA Members in May 2016

Resource and Market Assessment

Needs and Obstacles Assessment

Enabling Frameworks

Networking and Outreach

Objective

• Identify key barriers and drivers forstand-alone and mini-grid RE systemdeployment

• Platform to share experiences, lessonslearned and best practices

Conference outcome papers available at: www.iorec.irena.org

IOREC 2012 : Ghana IOREC 2014 : Philippines

Scaling-up off-grid renewable energy deployment : IOREC Platform

IOREC 2016 : Kenya

http://www.iorec.irena.org/

Key Elements of an Enabling Environment

Cooperation between public and private sector is essential

Policies and Regulations for Private Sector Renewable Energy Mini-grids

Download at www.irena.org

ACCESS TO FINANCE

RISK OF MAIN-GRID ARRIVAL

COST RECOVERY AND TARIFF

REGULATION

LEGAL AND LICENSING

PROVISIONS

Capturing the cross-sector development impacts

Off-grid systems to be deployed towards livelihoods and services to maximise sustainability and socio-economic benefits

POWERING HEALTH FACILITIES

Renewables and Human Development

FOOD CHAIN

IrrigationSolar pumping

Agro-processingImproved water mill

Agro-processingFood drying

% of district hospitals without reliable electricity – Sub-Saharan Africa

Health and the Food Chain

35

Renewable Energy Deployment

780 GW1,570TWh

40% of World Total

Region’s Share in Global RE Capacity

~1/2 hydropower1/3 solar & wind

1/4 geothermal & bioenergy

36

ASIA:Vast Renewables Potential

37

Renewable Energy Deployment

780 GW1,570TWh

40% of World Total

Region’s Share in Global RE Capacity

~1/2 hydropower1/3 solar & wind

1/4 geothermal & bioenergy

universal access to modern energy services, renewable ... vinci_unescap.pdf · source: irena...

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