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Fourth Quarter

2016

Housing Market Outlook

United States

U.S. Housing Market Outlook

Households Plans to Buy a House and Employment

Demand Conditions

Source: Census, BLS, The Conference Board & BBVA Research

YoY Change % Respondents and % YoY Change

Net household formation is supported by ageing Millennials and job

creation. Buyers’ confidence is still trending upward

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Plans to Buy

Employment (RHS)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Net Household Formation

1990-2006 Average

4 per. Mov. Avg. (Net Household Formation)


New Home Sales

Home sales will be supported by:

• Solid employment growth and further

gains in real income

• Strong consumer confidence

• Ongoing improvement in lending

conditions

• Ongoing low interest rates

Source: Census Bureau & BBVA Research

New Single-Family Home Sales

Thousands, SAAR

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

New 1-Family Home

Sales (YoY Change)

2.3% 14.2% 15.2% 13.8%

5.1%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Total

Single Family

Other (Condo, Co-op) (RHS)

Existing Home Sales

Source: NAR & BBVA Research

However, existing home sales growth has

decelerated due to:

• Limited supply of units for sale

• Home prices rising faster than incomes

Risks tilted to the downside if economy

slows more than expected

Existing Home Sales

Thousands, SAAR

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

1-Family Existing

Home Sales (YoY

Change)

-3.1% 6.3% 3.9% 4.6% 1.5%

Condo and Coop

Sales (YoY Change)

-3.0% 3.7% 0.8% 1.8%

2.0%

Total Existing Home

Sales (YoY Change)

-3.1% 6.7% 3.5% 4.2%

1.5%


New and Existing Single Family Homes for Sale Real Employer Cost for Labor, Construction ($/Hr)

Supply Conditions

Sources: Census, NAR, BLS, NAHB & BBVA Research

Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted % YoY, 4QMA

The supply shortages of existing and new homes are related. New

construction is constrained by rising labor costs and lack of lots

Housing Starts and Lot Availability

Thousands and % Respondents

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

82 84 85 87 89 90 92 94 95 97 99 00 02 04 05 07 09 10 12 14 15

Existing Homes

Average Existing Homes

New Homes (RHS)

Average New Homes (RHS)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Low/Very Low Lot Availability (RHS)

Housing Starts


Housing Starts

Source: Census Bureau & BBVA Research

Demographic trends favor single-family

construction in the short- and mid-term

New housing supply will be supported by:

• Low interest rates and greater access to

credit

• A return to more normal conditions as

Millennials that are living with their parents

start moving out

• Low risk of oversupply, as months’ supply

is well below historical average

Housing Starts

Thousands, SAAR

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

1-Family Housing

Starts (YoY Change)

4.3%

10.2% 9.1% 8.5%

2.1%

Multifamily Starts

(YoY Change)

14.8% 11.5% -3.0% 3.3% -3.2%

Total Housing Starts

(YoY Change)

7.8% 10.7% 4.8% 6.8% 0.4%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Total

Single Family

Multifamily


Housing Affordability and Interest Rates

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%0

50

100

150

200

250

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Housing Afordability (LHS, Inverted)

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (RHS)

Lending Conditions in Mortgage Market

Index and % Net Tightening of Residential Loan Standards % of Respondents Reporting Change in Standards

Median Credit Scores and Mortgage Availability

Source: NAR, FHFA, FRB & BBVA Research

Credit Score and Index

Hig

he

r A

ffo

rdab

ility

Tig

hte

nin

g

0

200

400

600

800

1000

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Mortgage Credit Availability Index (RHS)

Median Credit Score at Origination (LHS)

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

Q4-14 Q1-15 Q2-15 Q3-15 Q4-15 Q1-16 Q2-16

GSE Eligible

Government

Qualifying Non-Jumbo Non-GSE Eligible

Qualifying Jumbo

Non-Qualifying Jumbo

Non-Qualyfying Non-Jumbo

Subprime


Mortgage Originations for Purchase

Source: MBA & BBVA Research

Growth in mortgage originations for

purchase due to:

• Shift from renters to first-time buyers

• Growth in home sales and home prices

• Solid mortgage portfolio quality

• Easing credit standards for non-

subprime borrowers

• Ongoing improvement in securitizations

Mortgage Originations for Purchase

Billion $

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mortgage Originations for

Purchase (YoY Change) 4.0% 15.9% 11.8% 6.7% 4.4%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18


National Housing Outlook

Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Housing Starts, in thousands 1001 1108 1161 1240 1246

Single-Family Housing Starts, in thousands 647 713 778 844 862

Multifamily Housing Starts, in thousands 354 395 383 396 384

New Single-Family Home Sales, in thousands 440 502 579 659 692

Total Existing Home Sales, in thousands 4923 5233 5418 5650 5737

Existing Single-Family Home Sales, in thousands 4338 4627 4807 5028 5102

Other Existing Home Sales, in thousands 585 607 611 622 635

Median Existing Home Price, $ thousands 207 220 232 242 253

CoreLogic Home Price Index, percent change 7.0% 5.3% 5.5% 5.2% 4.8%

FHFA Index, percent change 5.4% 5.6% 5.4% 5.1% 4.4%

Mortgage Purchase Originations 3.5% 15.9% 11.8% 6.7% 4.4%

Real GDP, percent change 2.4% 2.4% 1.6% 2.1% 2.2%

Unemployment Rate 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.6% 4.5%

Conventional 30-year Fixed Rate, percent 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% 3.8%

Source: BBVA Research


Home Prices by MSA (FHFA Index % YoY)


Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

New York, NY 3.6% 4.1% 3.3% 2.2% 1.6%

Los Angeles, CA 18.5% 9.2% 7.0% 4.5% 4.3%

Chicago, IL 5.4% 4.6% 3.5% 3.6% 4.0%

Dallas, TX 9.3% 10.1% 9.7% 2.7% 1.4%

Houston, TX 11.1% 8.9% 4.0% 0.6% -0.6%

Philadelphia, PA 2.9% 3.2% 3.5% 2.5% 3.0%

Washington, DC 5.8% 4.2% 4.0% 3.8% 2.3%

Miami, FL 12.2% 10.2% 11.0% 12.3% 10.1%

Atlanta, GA 10.0% 8.1% 6.5% 2.9% 2.5%

Boston, MA 5.8% 5.0% 6.0% 5.8% 5.5%

San Francisco, CA 14.5% 12.5% 9.3% 5.1% 3.3%

Phoenix, AZ 11.4% 6.8% 7.3% 4.7% 4.0%

Riverside, CA 16.7% 6.4% 6.1% 4.2% 1.9%

Detroit, MI 9.2% 6.8% 6.0% 7.3% 4.7%

Seattle, WA 9.8% 9.5% 11.3% 4.8% 4.6%

Minneapolis, MN 6.3% 4.6% 5.1% 4.4% 4.2%

San Diego, CA 10.7% 5.9% 6.7% 3.6% 1.2%

Tampa, FL 9.9% 9.3% 9.9% 7.0% 7.4%

St. Louis, MO 2.7% 3.9% 4.3% 3.6% 3.5%

Baltimore, MD 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 4.4% 4.8%

Denver, CO 10.8% 12.3% 11.4% 5.8% 3.4%

Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Charlotte, NC 5.2% 6.3% 6.3% 2.7% 2.5%

Pittsburgh, PA 3.6% 4.1% 3.9% 2.5% 2.4%

Portland, OR 10.0% 10.4% 11.2% 4.0% 6.0%

San Antonio, TX 6.5% 7.6% 5.0% 0.6% 0.7%

Orlando, FL 10.9% 9.1% 7.9% 5.9% 7.3%

Sacramento, CA 12.7% 6.8% 7.9% 4.9% 2.1%

Cincinnati, OH 2.9% 4.1% 3.4% 2.4% 2.3%

Kansas City, MO 3.5% 5.4% 5.0% 3.0% 2.7%

Las Vegas, NV 18.5% 9.2% 7.0% 4.5% 4.3%

Cleveland, OH 3.4% 4.1% 3.2% 3.3% 3.0%

Columbus, OH 4.9% 5.3% 5.3% 3.6% 3.3%

Indianapolis, IN 3.6% 4.8% 3.4% 1.9% 1.9%

San Jose, CA 13.3% 10.7% 9.3% 5.9% 3.2%

Austin, TX 11.8% 10.3% 7.6% 0.8% 2.4%

Nashville, TN 7.8% 8.1% 9.0% 6.6% 6.8%

Virginia Beach, VA 2.3% 2.6% 2.2% 4.8% 5.1%

Providence, RI 3.2% 4.5% 4.8% 5.5% 4.8%

Milwaukee, WI 2.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.1% 3.2%

Jacksonville, FL 7.2% 7.4% 9.1% 8.9% 8.2%

Memphis, TN 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 0.8% 0.7%

Oklahoma City, OK 4.2% 4.8% 1.8% 0.0% 2.4%




Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Louisville, KY 2.7% 4.7% 4.1% 2.7% 2.6%

Richmond, VA 3.9% 4.0% 3.4% 2.9% 3.9%

New Orleans, LA 2.9% 5.9% 3.3% -4.1% -0.5%

Raleigh, NC 5.2% 5.0% 6.4% 1.6% 1.7%

Hartford, CT 0.4% 1.3% 0.4% 2.4% 3.0%

Salt Lake City, UT 6.9% 5.4% 7.4% 6.4% 5.9%

Birmingham, AL 1.7% -0.5% 1.1% 3.3% 2.9%

Buffalo, NY 3.5% 3.7% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5%

Rochester, NY 1.1% 2.4% 2.6% 1.5% 1.3%

Grand Rapids, MI 7.5% 7.4% 7.0% 3.7% 4.3%

Tucson, AZ 6.2% 3.2% 5.2% 3.2% 3.4%

Honolulu, HI 7.1% 6.1% 7.9% 5.6% 5.6%

Tulsa, OK 2.4% 5.4% 1.4% 0.1% 1.6%

Fresno, CA 11.3% 5.9% 6.1% 7.1% 4.8%

Bridgeport, CT 2.0% 2.4% 1.5% 4.3% 4.5%

Worcester, MA 3.3% 3.7% 4.1% 4.9% 4.6%

Albuquerque, NM 2.0% 2.2% 2.3% 0.3% 1.1%

Omaha, NE 2.9% 4.5% 3.4% 1.5% 1.8%

Albany, NY 6.0% 8.0% 8.7% 7.6% 7.0%

Bakersfield, CA 12.7% 4.9% 4.3% 7.5% 6.2%

Greenville, SC 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 0.9%

Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

New Haven, CT -0.5% 2.3% 1.2% 3.2% 4.2%

Knoxville, TN 2.8% 2.6% 3.4% 2.0% 1.7%

Oxnard, CA 11.3% 5.2% 6.1% 4.2% 2.9%

El Paso, TX 0.5% 1.7% 2.2% 3.4% 2.8%

McAllen, TX 4.9% 2.1% 3.4% 0.5% 1.0%

Allentown, PA 2.2% 1.7% 1.8% 3.4% 3.4%

Baton Rouge, LA 2.0% 4.0% 2.4% -2.1% 0.4%

Dayton, OH 1.0% 3.7% 2.9% 2.8% 2.6%

Columbia, SC 1.5% 4.0% 4.3% 2.9% 3.0%

Sarasota, FL 10.9% 12.5% 10.5% 7.5% 8.0%

Greensboro, NC 1.2% 2.0% 4.6% 2.6% 2.0%

Little Rock, AR 1.0% 1.8% 2.6% 2.2% 1.9%

Charleston, SC 2.8% 1.0% 0.5% 1.2% 0.9%

Stockton-Lodi, CA 17.7% 7.6% 8.2% 4.0% 0.1%

Akron, OH 3.1% 4.3% 3.4% 3.2% 2.7%

Colorado Springs, CO 3.6% 6.2% 6.7% 4.3% 3.5%

Cape Coral-Ft. Myers, FL 11.3% 11.7% 10.2% 7.3% 6.7%

Boise City, ID 10.3% 8.4% 7.8% 4.0% 5.2%

Syracuse, NY 1.9% 1.4% 1.3% 0.7% 1.3%

Winston-Salem, NC 0.1% 4.1% 2.5% 1.1% 1.9%

Wichita, KS 1.2% 4.0% 3.1% 2.1% 2.8%




Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Lakeland-W. Haven, FL 9.8% 7.6% 8.0% 5.7% 7.6%

Madison, WI 2.4% 3.9% 5.0% 3.9% 3.4%

Ogden-Clearfield, UT 4.9% 5.7% 6.4% 2.7% 3.4%

Springfield, MA 1.5% 1.3% 0.9% 1.1% 0.4%

Des Moines, IA 3.2% 4.1% 3.9% 1.0% 1.4%

Deltona, FL 10.0% 10.0% 9.7% 7.0% 7.3%

Toledo, OH 3.9% 3.5% 4.1% 2.7% 2.5%

Augusta, GA 1.4% 3.5% 1.4% 2.6% 3.4%

Jackson, MS 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% 0.6% 1.0%

Provo-Orem, UT 7.2% 6.5% 6.9% 5.0% 4.2%

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA 1.9% 3.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.9%

Scranton, PA 0.3% 1.1% 0.9% 3.3% 2.5%

P. Bay-Melbourne, FL 8.9% 13.2% 12.4% 5.4% 5.4%

Youngstown, OH 2.0% 2.5% 3.8% 2.4% 1.8%

Chattanooga, TN 2.5% 3.7% 4.4% 3.8% 3.2%

Durham, NC 4.5% 4.2% 4.7% 4.2% 3.0%

Spokane, WA 3.5% 5.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.4%

Lancaster, PA 1.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6%

Modesto, CA 20.8% 8.5% 8.9% 4.7% 0.4%

Portland, ME 0.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3%

Fayetteville, AR 4.4% 4.3% 3.9% 2.8% 3.3%

Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Santa Rosa, CA 14.9% 9.2% 8.4% 4.7% 3.8%

Lexington-Fayette, KY 1.6% 3.6% 4.1% 1.9% 2.2%

Lafayette, LA 3.3% 2.9% 1.7% -1.3% -0.3%

Pensacola, FL 4.6% 6.5% 6.4% 8.2% 7.8%

Lansing, MI 5.4% 5.1% 4.5% 5.1% 4.5%

Visalia, CA 12.0% 5.6% 6.6% 5.9% 5.1%

Springfield, MO 2.3% 2.0% 2.5% 1.8% 2.0%

Corpus Christi, TX 8.2% 5.2% 5.6% 2.0% 2.0%

Shreveport, LA 0.5% 2.8% 0.5% 0.4% 1.0%

Port St. Lucie, FL 12.8% 14.0% 11.5% 6.9% 7.0%

Reno, NV 16.8% 14.3% 11.3% 7.6% 4.2%

Asheville, NC 4.5% 7.4% 6.4% 5.1% 4.2%

Huntsville, AL 1.3% 1.8% 2.7% 2.1% 2.5%

York, PA 1.6% 2.3% 1.9% 4.2% 4.2%

S. Maria-S. Barbara, CA 12.3% 7.7% 6.2% 6.3% 2.9%

Salinas, CA 16.3% 9.2% 9.3% 7.9% 4.9%

Vallejo, CA 20.6% 8.4% 8.6% 4.5% 2.5%

Fort Wayne, IN 1.1% 4.4% 4.1% 0.7% 1.7%

Killeen, TX 1.8% 2.8% 5.0% 0.7% 1.5%

Brownsville-Harlingen, TX -0.1% 4.8% -1.3% -4.0% -3.5%

Myrtle Beach, SC 4.1% 5.5% 3.3% 3.5% 3.3%




Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mobile, AL 2.0% 4.1% 2.1% 2.6% 3.8%

Reading, PA 0.4% 3.0% 0.8% 2.8% 3.4%

Flint, MI 8.9% 7.0% 6.4% 6.5% 4.6%

Beaumont, TX 2.2% 4.4% 5.1% 1.6% 1.9%

Manchester, NH 2.8% 2.1% 1.9% 1.0% 1.0%

Salem, OR 7.0% 8.8% 8.9% 6.0% 6.0%

Canton, OH 3.3% 3.2% 3.7% 3.1% 2.6%

Anchorage, AK 3.6% 3.2% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3%

Salisbury, MD-DE 0.7% 3.2% 3.1% 5.1% 4.8%

Gulfport ,MS 1.3% 4.4% 3.4% 3.5% 4.2%

Davenport, IA 1.4% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.1%

Peoria, IL 0.9% 2.0% 0.8% 1.6% 1.6%

Fayetteville, NC -0.2% 0.2% 1.7% 2.4% 3.0%

Tallahassee, FL 2.4% 4.3% 6.7% 6.9% 7.5%

Montgomery, AL 0.6% 2.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.4%

Savannah, GA 4.5% 5.6% 4.7% 6.5% 7.0%

Trenton, NJ 0.5% 2.7% 2.2% 4.4% 4.1%

Huntington, WV 1.2% 1.8% 2.0% 1.2% 0.7%

Hickory-, NC 1.1% 3.1% 2.7% 2.1% 2.0%

Eugene, OR 5.6% 5.5% 6.8% 4.6% 5.0%

Ann Arbor, MI 9.0% 6.3% 4.7% 6.2% 4.1%

Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Naples, FL 14.4% 14.6% 9.4% 8.3% 9.6%

Rockford, IL -1.0% 2.9% 1.8% 2.7% 3.1%

Ocala, FL 6.6% 7.3% 6.2% 7.9% 7.6%

Kalamazoo-Portage, MI 4.2% 5.3% 3.3% 1.3% 2.6%

Fort Collins, CO 8.3% 10.9% 10.7% 6.7% 5.4%

Spartanburg, SC 1.1% 5.6% 3.0% 3.1% 2.5%

S.Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI 2.2% 2.8% 4.4% 3.0% 3.1%

Lincoln, NE 3.3% 4.7% 3.8% 1.7% 2.3%

Evansville, IN-KY -22.2% -19.8% 1.9% -2.7% -3.5%

Green Bay, WI 1.5% 3.3% 3.9% 2.3% 2.1%

Columbus, GA-AL -0.1% 3.0% 0.5% 3.1% 3.6%

Roanoke, VA 1.6% 1.9% 1.2% 3.0% 3.5%

Boulder, CO 9.2% 11.3% 12.0% 4.3% 5.4%

Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA -0.2% 3.7% 0.9% 2.6% 2.6%

Lubbock, TX 4.7% 4.2% 4.0% 2.0% 1.3%

Utica-Rome, NY -0.5% 2.8% 2.1% 0.7% 1.2%

Duluth, MN-WI 3.1% 2.4% 3.9% 4.6% 4.1%

Fort Smith, AR-OK 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 2.3% 1.4%

San Luis Obispo, CA 11.1% 6.4% 7.6% 6.3% 3.5%

Erie, PA -0.8% 4.1% 1.4% 1.6% 1.5%

Clarksville, TN 0.5% 1.8% 2.9% 4.0% 3.5%




Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Greeley, CO 10.3% 12.0% 11.7% 7.8% 4.9%

Atlantic City, NJ 0.9% -0.7% 0.8% 4.7% 5.1%

Kennewick-Richland, WA 1.7% 4.7% 5.9% 2.2% 2.0%

Norwich-New London, CT 0.5% 2.0% 1.6% 3.2% 3.9%

Gainesville, FL 10.3% 8.0% 4.4% 2.3% 3.4%

Wilmington, NC 5.4% 4.8% 4.9% 6.7% 7.4%

S.-Watsonville, CA 11.3% 9.7% 7.5% 6.7% 4.3%

Laredo, TX 7.0% 6.0% 2.2% -0.9% 0.0%

Merced, CA 20.2% 8.6% 7.7% 2.9% -0.8%

Olympia-Tumwater, WA 4.6% 6.5% 6.6% 4.7% 4.6%

Cedar Rapids, IA 1.4% 1.9% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9%

Waco, TX 2.1% 5.4% 4.7% 2.5% 1.5%

Hagerstown, MD 3.8% 3.1% 3.1% 6.4% 5.1%

Amarillo, TX 1.3% 4.7% 4.0% 2.9% 2.9%

Crestview, FL 3.3% 7.0% 8.3% 9.5% 8.3%

Lynchburg, VA 0.3% 2.5% 3.4% 4.7% 2.9%

Bremerton-Silverdale, WA 3.8% 9.6% 7.6% 7.9% 7.0%

Sioux Falls, SD 3.7% 5.4% 4.6% 3.3% 3.2%

Yakima, WA 1.5% 3.9% 5.4% 7.7% 6.4%

Binghamton, NY 1.7% -0.5% 1.1% 3.3% 2.9%

College Station-Bryan, TX 6.3% 7.8% 7.3% 4.3% 1.9%

Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tuscaloosa, AL 0.2% 2.0% 4.2% 3.7% 2.9%

Champaign-Urbana, IL 1.9% 2.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.9%

Topeka, KS 0.8% 2.4% 3.6% 2.4% 2.6%

Appleton, WI 0.8% 3.2% 2.9% 2.1% 1.8%

Macon, GA 1.0% 1.9% 4.3% 2.5% 2.8%

Fargo, ND-MN 8.0% 7.0% 5.5% 2.9% 4.5%

Charlottesville, VA 2.5% 3.9% 3.8% 4.5% 4.4%

Chico, CA 7.1% 5.2% 6.4% 6.3% 4.9%

Charleston, WV 2.8% 1.0% 0.5% 1.2% 0.9%

Prescott, AZ 10.5% 8.2% 7.0% 5.4% 4.5%

Tyler, TX 3.7% 3.4% 4.0% 1.1% 1.4%

Longview, TX 1.7% -2.0% -0.1% 1.5% 1.7%

Burlington, VT 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8%

Barnstable Town, MA 2.8% 4.3% 3.8% 5.2% 5.0%

Las Cruces, NM -1.5% 1.9% 3.1% 0.6% 0.9%

Rochester, MN 0.0% 1.0% 2.3% 2.2% 1.9%

Lafayette, IN 3.3% 2.9% 1.7% -1.3% -0.3%

Springfield, IL 0.8% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Houma-Thibodaux, LA 2.8% 2.6% 2.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Medford, OR 10.2% 7.8% 7.5% 8.0% 9.1%

Bellingham, WA 4.3% 6.4% 5.4% 4.1% 2.9%




Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Florence, SC 1.3% 2.1% 2.5% 3.1% 2.5%

Lake Charles, LA 5.8% 5.2% 3.7% -0.7% 0.3%

Lake Havasu City-

Kingman, AZ 9.4% 8.1% 6.4% 5.0% 5.1%

Yuma, AZ 3.6% 5.4% 2.9% 1.9% 2.8%

Hilton Head Island, SC 2.9% 7.0% 4.0% 5.2% 6.9%

Elkhart-Goshen, IN 3.0% 5.4% 4.4% 2.0% 2.7%

Johnson City, TN 2.8% 0.3% 2.1% 2.6% 2.8%

Daphne, AL 7.7% 5.2% 5.7% -0.9% 3.4%

Athens, GA 6.1% 4.6% 6.5% 4.6% 3.4%

Racine, WI 1.7% 3.7% 4.0% 2.9% 4.0%

Saginaw, MI 1.7% 4.1% 3.4% 4.6% 3.5%

Panama City, FL 6.0% 6.1% 7.9% 7.8% 7.9%

St. Cloud, MN 3.0% 3.5% 4.9% 4.3% 4.3%

Gainesville, GA 2.0% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.0%

Bloomington, IL 1.5% 4.7% 2.5% 3.4% 3.4%

Jacksonville, NC 1.3% -0.1% 0.2% 1.2% 2.1%

Warner Robins, GA -1.0% 2.5% 0.1% 2.1% 2.5%

Blacksburg, VA 1.0% 1.9% 4.2% 3.5% 3.8%

Kingston, NY 2.0% 1.8% 0.2% 3.9% 4.2%

Redding, CA 8.8% 5.7% 4.9% 5.5% 2.6%

El Centro, CA 12.9% 9.5% 6.6% 3.9% 2.0%

Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Monroe, LA 6.1% 6.6% 3.9% 5.5% 4.4%

Joplin, MO 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.9% 2.2%

Greenville, NC 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 1.5% 0.9%

Columbia, MO 0.3% 1.8% 2.7% 1.8% 2.2%

Muskegon, MI 5.9% 6.3% 5.4% 4.1% 3.6%

Dover, DE 0.6% 3.8% 4.1% 1.7% 2.8%

Terre Haute, IN 0.8% 2.8% 0.6% 3.2% 2.1%

Bend-Redmond, OR 16.4% 11.8% 10.5% 7.7% 6.3%

Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA 1.9% 2.3% 0.0% 2.5% 2.6%

Yuba City, CA 17.5% 5.3% 8.3% 6.9% 4.2%

Oshkosh-Neenah, WI 0.0% 2.4% 2.6% 3.2% 2.2%

Sioux City, IA-NE-SD 2.4% 5.2% 5.3% 2.1% 2.1%

Abilene, TX 5.7% 3.9% 3.1% 0.9% 1.0%

Punta Gorda, FL 7.9% 11.6% 10.7% 7.2% 6.4%

Billings, MT 4.1% 4.4% 3.8% 3.7% 2.9%

East Stroudsburg, PA 1.1% -2.0% 6.2% 0.2% 4.1%

Bowling Green, KY 1.1% 4.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.3%

Eau Claire, WI 2.4% 2.8% 3.9% 3.1% 2.5%

Iowa City, IA 1.3% 3.7% 2.6% 3.1% 2.9%

Bloomington, IN 1.5% 4.7% 2.5% 3.4% 3.4%

Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI 11.3% 9.2% 5.0% 5.9% 5.8%




Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Pueblo, CO 3.1% 7.1% 5.3% 3.4% 2.4%

Midland, TX 9.2% 2.5% -1.6% -1.8% -1.3%

Janesville-Beloit, WI 1.6% 4.4% 4.8% 4.4% 3.1%

Jackson, MI 1.4% 0.1% -1.7% -0.5% -0.4%

State College, PA 1.6% 4.7% 4.7% 2.3% 2.2%

Vineland-Bridgeton, NJ -1.8% 1.6% 2.9% 5.5% 5.0%

Burlington, NC 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8%

Niles-Benton Harbor, MI 3.6% 4.6% 4.3% 4.5% 5.0%

Albany, GA 0.1% 0.3% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4%

Alexandria, LA 2.1% 2.5% 1.7% -0.4% -0.7%

Madera, CA 15.1% 6.0% 7.3% 10.1% 8.9%

Auburn-Opelika, AL 2.8% 3.0% 3.6% 2.3% 3.1%

Odessa, TX 7.7% 5.7% 1.3% 3.4% 3.9%

Bangor, ME 2.3% 0.8% 3.4% 2.5% 3.0%

Decatur, AL 0.2% 3.3% 0.3% 2.2% 0.9%

Chambersburg, PA 2.3% 2.0% 1.2% 6.3% 5.3%

St. George, UT 8.4% 6.2% 5.9% 6.8% 7.1%

Elizabethtown-F.Knox, KY -0.3% 2.1% 0.4% 1.2% 1.8%

Wichita Falls, TX 3.6% 0.2% 4.1% 0.9% -0.1%

Jefferson City, MO -0.4% 2.7% 3.2% 2.7% 2.4%

Hanford-Corcoran, CA 8.8% 6.1% 6.3% 6.1% 5.3%

Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Monroe, MI 6.1% 6.6% 3.9% 5.5% 4.4%

Rocky Mount, NC 0.1% -0.6% 1.0% 2.4% 1.5%

Texarkana, TX-AR 2.9% 1.5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.5%

Hattiesburg, MS 1.1% 3.9% 2.6% 2.9% 2.6%

Grand Junction, CO 1.9% 5.5% 5.5% 4.6% 2.2%

Santa Fe, NM 1.0% 3.7% 4.0% 1.0% 1.1%

Dothan, AL -0.2% 2.7% 2.8% 3.0% 2.7%

Florence-M. Shoals, AL 2.6% 1.3% 3.4% 1.6% 1.8%

Coeur d'Alene, ID 7.8% 7.2% 7.9% 8.5% 6.2%

Wheeling, WV-OH 7.1% 4.5% -0.6% -0.3% -0.1%

Sebastian-V. Beach, FL 10.7% 12.3% 10.9% 4.7% 6.6%

Rapid City, SD 3.0% 3.5% 4.3% 4.9% 4.6%

Valdosta, GA -1.7% 3.8% 2.3% 4.6% 5.2%

Dalton, GA 5.0% 2.3% 5.3% 5.3% 3.9%

Napa, CA 15.3% 8.3% 8.2% 3.8% 3.1%

Homosassa Springs, FL 3.1% 11.0% 8.3% 11.9% 12.1%

Idaho Falls, ID 2.2% 5.3% 6.0% 2.9% 3.7%

Johnstown, PA -0.4% 2.5% 5.4% 1.7% 1.4%

Flagstaff, AZ 8.6% 8.1% 6.9% 7.5% 6.6%

Morgantown, WV 2.5% 3.2% 1.8% 2.2% 2.0%

La Crosse, WI-MN 2.5% 3.0% 4.0% 3.1% 2.8%




Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Springfield, OH -0.1% -1.0% 0.8% 1.2% 0.6%

Lebanon, PA 1.6% -0.4% 1.2% 2.9% 2.7%

Wausau, WI 0.1% 3.3% 4.5% 1.6% 1.8%

Battle Creek, MI 2.7% 5.7% 3.2% 4.2% 3.4%

Winchester, VA-WV 5.9% 2.8% 2.5% 3.6% 4.3%

Logan, UT-ID 2.2% 4.8% 5.3% 3.6% 3.5%

Lawton, OK -1.0% 1.0% -4.2% -0.9% -0.9%

Harrisonburg, VA 1.9% 3.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.9%

Jackson, TN 0.1% 1.2% 4.9% 0.9% 1.2%

Pittsfield, MA -1.0% 2.9% -0.2% 5.1% 5.4%

New Bern, NC -0.8% 0.7% 2.3% 1.0% 2.4%

Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ -3.6% 0.9% 2.1% 3.9% 4.9%

St. Joseph, MO-KS 0.1% 3.5% 4.0% 2.8% 2.1%

Glens Falls, NY -0.1% 1.3% 0.4% 5.7% 4.4%

Hammond, LA -0.1% 4.3% 2.4% -1.3% 1.8%

Jonesboro, AR -0.4% 2.4% 4.0% 2.4% 1.5%

Carbondale-Marion, IL -0.9% 2.6% 0.8% 3.5% 2.3%

Bismarck, ND 8.4% 5.8% -0.7% 1.0% 6.6%

Altoona, PA 1.6% 1.4% 3.2% 2.5% 1.7%

Goldsboro, NC -3.6% 2.1% 2.6% 3.5% 2.6%

Farmington, NM 0.0% 1.5% 3.7% 2.4% 1.2%

Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sherman-Denison, TX 4.7% 7.9% 6.1% 0.9% 0.5%

Beckley, WV 1.1% 2.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.6%

Mansfield, OH 1.9% 4.6% 3.0% 2.7% 2.7%

Weirton-Steubenv., WV-OH 0.7% 6.4% 1.3% -0.2% 0.7%

Mt Vernon-Anacortes, WA 4.6% 9.2% 8.6% 7.3% 7.7%

Staunton-Waynesb., VA 2.2% 0.9% 3.0% 3.8% 3.5%

Cleveland, TN 2.2% 2.0% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0%

Albany, OR 6.0% 8.0% 8.7% 7.6% 7.0%

Watertown-Ft Drum, NY 0.8% 4.7% -3.6% 6.2% 4.9%

San Angelo, TX 5.1% 4.9% 1.1% 2.3% 1.4%

Muncie, IN 0.5% 1.4% 4.3% 1.8% 1.5%

Lawrence, KS 0.9% 2.2% 3.6% 1.9% 1.9%

Williamsport, PA 2.4% 2.9% 3.2% 1.0% 2.2%

Owensboro, KY 0.8% 4.2% 2.9% 2.0% 1.4%

Anniston, AL 0.0% 1.8% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5%

Morristown, TN 1.3% 2.3% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5%

Sheboygan, WI 0.5% 2.5% 2.9% 3.5% 3.3%

Brunswick, GA 5.4% 6.3% 7.7% 6.1% 6.1%

Wenatchee, WA 5.2% 7.7% 5.4% 6.7% 6.7%

The Villages, FL 11.4% 3.5% 1.1% 3.7% 5.6%

Missoula, MT 3.5% 4.7% 4.2% 3.0% 3.1%




Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Michigan City, IN 2.7% 3.0% 4.9% 3.2% 3.3%

Kankakee, IL -1.3% 2.1% 2.1% 2.7% 3.9%

California-Lexington P., MD -0.2% 1.2% 1.9% 2.7% 3.5%

Decatur, IL -0.7% 2.4% 1.8% 1.4% 1.0%

Sumter, SC -1.6% 4.1% 3.6% 4.0% 3.2%

Lewiston-Auburn, ME 0.8% 2.0% 1.9% 2.2% 3.7%

Bay City, MI 1.8% 4.5% 1.4% 5.4% 3.1%

Lima, OH 0.5% 5.0% 3.0% 3.8% 3.2%

Ithaca, NY 6.7% 1.1% 5.0% 3.1% 3.2%

Gadsden, AL -1.1% 1.7% 3.1% 3.0% 1.6%

Longview, WA 6.4% 9.6% 7.1% 7.6% 6.8%

Grand Forks, ND-MN 8.3% 5.2% 3.4% 1.9% 5.4%

Fond du Lac, WI -2.0% 3.4% 2.7% 3.6% 2.4%

Gettysburg, PA -0.3% 3.7% 4.4% 4.1% 4.8%

Cumberland, MD-WV -1.5% 0.3% -2.9% 2.9% 3.6%

Fairbanks, AK -1.1% 2.4% 3.1% 1.5% 2.3%

Victoria, TX 7.0% 3.6% 1.0% 2.4% 2.5%

Mankato-N.Mankato, MN 2.9% 3.9% 3.3% 5.0% 4.4%

Sebring, FL 5.7% 9.0% 10.7% 10.0% 11.5%

Manhattan, KS 2.6% 3.4% 3.0% 6.3% 6.8%

Cape Girardeau, MO-IL 2.5% -0.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.0%

Hot Springs, AR -0.1% 3.3% 1.6% 4.0% 2.5%

Forecast

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cheyenne, WY 3.6% 5.5% 2.1% -0.8% 1.4%

Dubuque, IA 1.3% 2.4% 2.2% 3.0% 2.3%

Rome, GA 2.5% 2.7% 4.5% 3.4% 2.8%

Ocean City, NJ 0.5% 3.1% 3.0% 8.1% 5.9%

Pine Bluff, AR 0.5% 2.8% 1.5% 2.7% 2.2%

Ames, IA 4.6% 4.0% 4.6% 1.6% 2.3%

Parkersburg-Vienna, WV 4.2% 0.3% 3.7% -1.9% -0.4%

Elmira, NY 3.7% -0.3% -2.7% 2.2% 1.4%

Corvallis, OR 3.8% 5.8% 7.5% 7.3% 7.3%

Bloomsburg-Berwick, PA 2.1% 2.7% 0.2% 2.4% 1.9%

Grand Island, NE 4.5% 5.2% 3.3% 4.1% 4.0%

Grants Pass, OR 9.6% 7.0% 8.7% 8.9% 5.6%

Midland, MI 9.2% 2.5% -1.6% -1.8% -1.3%

Pocatello, ID 1.7% 2.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.8%

Kokomo, IN 2.5% 4.3% 2.7% 3.6% 2.7%

Great Falls, MT 1.4% 2.6% 3.2% 1.8% 2.1%

Hinesville, GA 1.4% -4.0% 1.3% 6.1% 5.8%

Casper, WY 4.1% 4.5% -2.8% -4.2% 0.4%

Columbus, IN 2.3% 2.4% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9%

Danville, IL 2.5% 1.1% 3.1% 1.1% 1.6%

Walla Walla, WA 4.0% 3.2% 4.9% 4.2% 4.9%

Lewiston, ID-WA 5.1% 2.9% 3.8% 6.6% 6.8%

Carson City, NV 14.8% 12.7% 11.2% 7.0% 4.8%


Fourth Quarter

2016

Housing Market Outlook

United States

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