united states food, agriculture, and foreign u.s. market ... · united states department of...

United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture

ForeignAgriculturalService

Food, Agriculture, and U.S. Market Prospects

Evan ManginoATO Deputy DirectorU.S. Embassy – TokyoMarch 6, 2017



Basic Economic Indicators • GDP: $4.1 trillion Rank 3rd

– U.S.: $17.9 trillion– China: $10.9 trillion

• GDP/Capita: $32,400 – U.S.: $55,800– China: $7,900

• Real GDP Growth Rate: 1.2% (annualized)

• Inflation Rate: 0.4% • Unemployment: 3.0% • Consumption Tax: 8% (10% October 2019)

• “Abe-nomics” 3 Arrows – 1.0 and 2.0



DomesticProduction

Rice22%

Vegetables26%

Fruit&Nuts9%

DairyCattle9%

Poultry9%

AllOthers25%

Japan’sTotalAgriculturalProductionValue

434

54.393.7

050

100150200250300350400450500

UnitedStates Hokkaido RestofJapan

AverageFarmSize(acres) FarmersOver60

77%FarmersUnder40

7%

0

2

2005 2010 2015

TotalFarms



Cereals37%

Potatoes2%

Vegetables3%

Fruits3%

Meats7%

Dairy6%

Fish 4%

Fats & Oils14%

Sugar8%

Other15%

Per Capita Consumption (% of daily calories)

Pork43%

Chicken 30%

Beef27%

Food Consumption in Japan

Rice62%

Wheat36%

Key Considerations – Population of 127 Million – High per capita GDP– High per capita spending on food – Diet rich in fish, rice, and veg

However….– Shrinking population / low birth rate– Consume 1,000 fewer calories per

day than Americans– Deflationary mindset



International Trade

$4,862

$3,837

$2,092

$1,318

$813

$736$409 $367

U.S.ExportstoJapan2016 Grains&

FeedsLivestock&MeatsHorticulturalProductsOilseeds&ProductsForestProductsFisheryProductsDairy&Products

0

5

10

15

20

2006 2011 2016

BillionUS$ U.S.AgriculturalExportComposition

Consumer Oriented Intermediate Bulk

0

2

4

6

8

Japan HongKong SouthKorea

China Taiwan

TopFiveAsianMarketsforU.S.Consumer-OrientedProduct(2016)

BillionUS$



Marketing: What Sells

国産

Traceabilityanzen

Storyanshin



0 50 100 150 200 250

Tokyo

Kansai

Paris

NewYorkCity

SanFrancisco

Chicago

óóó óó ó

Marketing: Restaurants

NumberofStarredMichelinRestaurants

020,00040,00060,00080,000

61,810

38,596

35,805

33,967

56,850

(NRAdata&JapanFoodServiceAssociation)

Tokyo

Florida

Texas

NY

California

NumberofRestaurantsbyState

2013RestaurantSalesUnitedStates: $659BillionJapan: $303Billion

2013RestaurantOutletsUnitedStates: 630,000Japan: 700,000



$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.02015GDP$Trillion(PPP)

EU

China

India

Japan

Russia

Brazil

Datasources:GlobalInsight

Six Largest Economies Outside the U.S. (by GDP)

PerCapitaGDP$PPP



$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$0.0 $5.0 $10.0 $15.0 $20.0 $25.02015GDP$Trillion(PPP)

EU

China

India

Japan

Russia

Brazil

Datasources:GlobalInsight,U.S.CensusBureau,ForeignTradeStatistics

PerCapitaGDP$PPP

Bubblesize=$U.S.AgExport/Person

Consumers with Purchasing Power and an Appetite for American Products



• Japanremainsastrongmarket,dependentuponimportedfood

• Retailfood,beverage,andrestaurantsectorisvaluedatmorethan$650Billion

• Affluentpopulationwithdiversepalates–notastagnantmarket

• Japaneseconsumersarewillingtopayahigherpriceforqualityandconvenience

• ‘Anzen’and‘Anshin’– safety&peaceofmind

Conclusions



Questions?

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