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12:00 P.M. United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service September Crop Production Executive Summary Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch September 12, 2017

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Page 1: United States Department of Agriculture National …...12:00 P.M. United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service September Crop Production Executive

12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

September Crop ProductionExecutive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

September 12, 2017

Page 2: United States Department of Agriculture National …...12:00 P.M. United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service September Crop Production Executive

USDA-NASS

9-12-17

Field Crops Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops

Corn Navel Oranges (CA) Tobacco

Soybeans Hazelnuts Sugarbeets

Cotton Walnuts Sugarcane

Rice Dry Edible Peas

Peanuts Lentils

Sorghum Austrian Winter Peas

Contents

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USDA-NASS

9-12-17

Ag Yield Objective Yield

Survey Type Farmer Reported Field Measurement

Crops Included Field Crops Corn, Cotton, Soybeans

Sample Size 10,170 4,952

Collection Period Aug 29 – Sept 6 Aug 25 – Sept 1

Survey Overview

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USDA-NASS

9-12-17

September 2017 Crop Production

Many crops have been significantly impacted by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma and the subsequent flooding. USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will collect harvested acreage information for a number of crops in affected states in preparation for the October Crop Productionreport. These additional data will help to better assess the full impact. If the newly collected data justifies any changes, NASS will publish updated harvested acreage estimates in the October 12 report.

Harvested acreage information will be collected from all producers surveyed in Alabama for Upland cotton, peanuts, and soybeans; in Floridafor Upland cotton, peanuts, and soybeans; in Georgia for Upland cotton, peanuts, and soybeans; in Louisiana for corn, Upland cotton, rice, sorghum, soybeans, and sugarcane; in South Carolina for Upland cotton, peanuts, and soybeans; and in Texas for corn, Upland cotton, alfalfa hay, other hay, rice, sorghum, and soybeans.

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September 2017 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Estimate Season

Corn

Planted Mil Ac 90.9 NC -3.3

Harvested Mil Ac 83.5 NC -3.7

Yield Bu/Ac 169.9 +0.2 -2.7

Production Bil Bu 14.2 +0.2 -6.4

Page 6: United States Department of Agriculture National …...12:00 P.M. United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service September Crop Production Executive

9.21

9.76 9.43 9.92 9.50

8.97

10.1

11.8

11.1

10.5

13.0

12.0

13.1

12.4 12.3

10.8

13.814.2

13.6

15.1

14.2

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Billion BushelsCorn for Grain Production

United States

USDA-NASS

9-12-17

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USDA-NASS

9-12-17

Page 8: United States Department of Agriculture National …...12:00 P.M. United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service September Crop Production Executive

2004

20052006 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

20142015

2016

Aug-17

Sept-17

0.260

0.270

0.280

0.290

0.300

0.310

0.320

0.330

0.340

0.350

0.360

0.370

25,000 25,500 26,000 26,500 27,000 27,500 28,000 28,500 29,000 29,500

Lbs/Ear

Ears Per Acre

Corn Objective Yield RegionEars Per Acre vs. Implied Ear Weight

Implied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / EarsImplied Ear Weight = (Published Yield * 56) / Ears

USDA-NASS

9-12-17

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USDA-NASS

9-12-17

September 2017 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Estimate Season

Soybeans

Planted Mil Ac 89.5 NC +7.3

Harvested Mil Ac 88.7 NC +7.2

Yield Bu/Ac 49.9 +1.0 -4.2

Production Bil Bu 4.43 +1.1 +2.9

Page 10: United States Department of Agriculture National …...12:00 P.M. United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service September Crop Production Executive

2.69 2.742.65

2.76

2.89

2.76

2.45

3.12 3.073.20

2.68

2.97

3.36

3.33

3.10 3.04

3.36

3.93 3.93

4.31

4.43

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Billion BushelsSoybean Production

United States

USDA-NASS

9-12-17

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USDA-NASS

9-12-17

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2004

2005

2006

20072008

2009

20102011

2012

2013 20142015

2016

Sept -17

0.260

0.265

0.270

0.275

0.280

0.285

0.290

0.295

0.300

0.305

0.310

0.315

0.320

0.325

0.330

0.335

0.340

0.345

0.350

1,400 1,450 1,500 1,550 1,600 1,650 1,700 1,750 1,800 1,850 1,900

Grams/Pod

Pods Per 18 Square Feet

Soybean Objective Yield RegionPods Per 18 Square Feet vs. Implied Pod Weight

Implied Pod Weight = (Published Yield / Pods) /0.0889

USDA-NASS

9-12-17

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September 2017 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Estimate Season

All Cotton

Planted Mil Ac 12.6 +4.7 +25.3

Harvested Mil Ac 11.5 +4.1 +21.0

Yield Lb/Ac 908 +1.8 +4.7

Production Mil Bls 21.8 +5.9 +26.7

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12.6

11.5

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Million AcresAll Cotton Acres

United States

Planted Harvested

USDA-NASS

9-12-17

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18.8

13.9

17.0 17.2

20.3

17.2

18.3

23.323.9

21.6

19.2

12.812.2

18.1

15.6

17.3

12.9

16.3

12.9

17.2

21.8

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Million BalesAll Cotton Production

United States

USDA-NASS

9-12-17

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September 2017

Cotton OY Segment Center Points

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September 2017 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Estimate Season

Rice

Planted Mil Ac 2.49 -2.9 -21.0

Harvested Mil Ac 2.40 -3.5 -22.7

Yield Lbs/Ac 7,504 -0.1 +3.7

Production Mil Cwt 180 -3.6 -19.8

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September 2017 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Estimate Season

Peanuts

Planted Mil Ac 1.88 +3.5 +12.6

Harvested Mil Ac 1.83 +3.2 +18.2

Yield Lbs/Ac 4,254 +1.5 +15.8

Production Bil Lbs 7.78 +4.7 +36.9

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September 2017 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Forecast Season

Sorghum Mil Bu 371 +0.3 -22.8

All Tobacco Mil Lbs 723 +4.0 +14.9

Sugarbeets Mil Tons 36.2 -0.5 -1.9

Sugarcane Mil Tons 31.8 -0.1 -0.9

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% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Forecast Season

A. Winter Peas Thou Cwt 139 NA -70.9

Dry Edible Peas Mil Cwt 15.4 NA -44.6

Lentils Mil Cwt 7.46 NA -41.2

September 2017 Crop Production

USDA-NASS

9-12-17

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September 2017 Crop Production

% Change % Change

From From

Crop Unit September Previous Previous

2017 Forecast Season

Navel Oranges (CA) Mil Tons 1.40 NA -10.9

Hazelnuts (OR) Thou Tons 36.0 NA -18.2

Walnuts (CA) Thou Tons 650 NA -5.2

Page 23: United States Department of Agriculture National …...12:00 P.M. United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service September Crop Production Executive

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Release Date Report Title

September 14 Potatoes

September 20 Certified Organic

September 22 Cattle on Feed

September 28Ag Prices

Hogs and Pigs

September 29Grain Stocks

Small Grains Summary

October 2

CAIR: Cotton System

CAIR: Fats & Oils

CAIR: Grain Crushings

October 12Crop Production

Cotton Ginnings

Upcoming Reports

Page 24: United States Department of Agriculture National …...12:00 P.M. United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service September Crop Production Executive

USDA-NASS

9-12-17

Page 25: United States Department of Agriculture National …...12:00 P.M. United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service September Crop Production Executive

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

All Reports Available Atwww.nass.usda.gov

For Questions202-720-2127

800-727-9540

[email protected]