united states agriculture grain · 2015. 10. 9. · russian and ukrainian exports are forecast at...

Grain: World Markets and Trade

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board - USDA

United StatesDepartment ofAgriculture

ForeignAgriculturalService

October 2015

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U.S. 2015/16 marketing year exports (June-May) are forecast to drop to the lowest level since 1971/72 because of high relative prices, abundant competitor supplies, and a strong U.S. dollar. International prices are being pressured downward by projected record global production and ample exportable supplies in Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine. Although U.S. wheat export prices have fallen, the United States remains largely uncompetitive, even in some traditional markets. Currently, U.S. FOB prices are about $35/MT above both French and Black Sea.

Russian and Ukrainian exports are forecast at record levels. EU exports are projected to be the second highest on record. EU and Black Sea exports have displaced the United States as the primary supplier in many major importing countries in North Africa and the Middle East based on low prices as well as freight and logistical advantages. Furthermore, the United States has recently lost market share in some traditional markets and the trend is expected to continue. For example, Mexico has recently begun importing from France, Russia, and Ukraine. Compared to last year, U.S. export commitments to Mexico are down 27%. Additionally, U.S. market share in Nigeria declined from a five-year average of 76% to 43% last year as lower-priced Russian and EU supplies entered the market. U.S. export commitments to Nigeria are down 38% from last year, further dimming prospects for market share recovery.

High U.S. Wheat Prices Drive Exports to 44-Year LowMMT

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

World Markets and Trade: Commentary and Current Data Wheat ................................................................................................................. 4

Rice .................................................................................................................... 9

Coarse Grains ................................................................................................... 14

Historical Data Series for Selected Regions and Countries ............................ 35

Endnotes to Grain: World Markets and Trade ............................................... 54

The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD)

database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply

and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m.

To download the tables in the publication, go to Production, Supply and Distribution Database

(PSD Online): (http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx), scroll down to Reports, and

Click the plus sign [+] next to Grains.

FAS Reports and Databases:

Current World Markets and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

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Archives World Markets and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:

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Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online):

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx

Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports):

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

Export Sales Report:

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports):

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

Other USDA Reports:

World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

Economic Research Service:

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

National Agricultural Statistics Service:

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA October 2015Office of Global Analysis


http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7


http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

All Grain Summary Comparison

Million Metric Tons

Marketing Year

Wheat Rice, Milled Corn

2015/162014/152013/142015/162014/152013/142015/162014/152013/14

Production

United States (Jun-May) 58.1 55.1 55.8 6.1 7.1 6.0 351.3 361.1 344.3

Other 657.0 670.4 677.0 472.3 471.7 468.0 640.1 647.6 628.3

World Total 715.1 725.5 732.8 478.4 478.8 474.0 991.4 1,008.7 972.6

Domestic Consumption


Other 656.7 670.1 680.4 474.2 478.4 481.5 653.3 674.8 679.8

World Total 691.0 701.6 713.6 478.2 482.5 485.5 946.3 976.7 982.2

Ending Stocks


Other 177.7 191.6 205.1 106.6 100.2 87.0 144.6 152.0 148.1

World Total 193.8 212.1 228.5 107.6 101.8 88.3 175.9 196.0 187.8

TY Imports


Other 155.4 154.3 154.9 40.2 39.3 39.1 124.4 120.0 122.6

World Total 160.2 158.3 158.3 41.0 40.1 39.9 125.1 120.8 123.4

TY Exports


Other 130.9 138.5 137.5 40.3 39.1 38.7 79.5 80.3 80.7

World Total 162.4 161.3 160.5 43.3 42.5 42.0 130.2 127.1 127.7

Note: Consumption in this table has not been adjusted for differences in marketing year imports and

exports and therefore differs from global totals shown elsewhere.Marketing years for U.S. grains are:

Wheat (Jun-May), Rice (Aug-Jul), Corn (Sep-Aug).'Marketing Year' column is germane for U.S. wheat

only.


4

WHEAT: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE OVERVIEW Global production in 2015/16 is raised to a new record driven by larger crops in Australia, Canada, the EU, and Ukraine, and despite smaller production in the United States and Argentina. Global trade is raised, primarily with imports for China, Iran, and Syria, more than offsetting a cut in Brazil. Exports are up for Australia, Canada, the EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine, but cut for Argentina and the United States. Marketing year U.S. exports are projected at a 44-year low. The season-average farm price forecast is unchanged from last month with a large share of 2015/16 production already marketed during the summer months. U.S. PRICES:

Domestic: Prices for all U.S. wheat classes rose in the last month, making exports less competitive. Concerns over dry planting conditions in the U.S. and Black Sea, along with a lower U.S. production estimate, are putting upward pressure on prices. Hard Red Spring (HRS) rose $13/ton to $249, while Hard Red Winter (HRW) edged just $7/ton higher to $222. Soft Red Winter (SRW) climbed $16/ton higher to $218 while Soft White Wheat (SWW) saw the weakest price performance, rising just $5/ton to $220.

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U.S. Weekly FOB Export Bids

HRS HRW SRW SWW


5

TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16 Selected Exporters

Argentina is down 500,000 tons to 5.5 million based on a smaller forecast crop.

Australia is boosted 500,000 tons to 18.5 million on a larger forecast crop.

Canada is raised 1.0 million tons to 19.5 million on higher production.

European Union is up 500,000 tons to 33.0 million on expectations that large supplies and competitive prices will boost exports in the second half of the season.

Kazakhstan is raised 500,000 tons to 6.5 million on larger exportable supplies.

Russia is up 500,000 tons to 23.5 million on a faster pace of trade to date.

Ukraine is hiked 1.5 million tons to a record 15.0 million on higher production and a faster pace of trade to date.

United States is down 2.0 million tons to 23.0 million based on weak shipments and slow

sales. The marketing year estimate of 23.1 million tons is projected at a 44-year low. Selected Importers

Brazil is down 300,000 tons to 6.7 million based on currency weakness and lower consumption.

China is up 300,000 tons to 2.5 million on a higher-than-expected pace of imports to date.

Iran is hiked 2.0 million tons to 4.5 million because the government unexpectedly eliminated import duties that it implemented just two months ago.

Syria doubled to 1.0 million on reports of difficulty accessing domestic stocks.


World Wheat, Flour, and Products Trade

July/June Year, Thousand Metric Tons

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

TY Exports

5,5006,0004,2001,6757,45011,951 Argentina

18,50018,00016,57518,33921,26923,031 Australia

19,50018,50024,83022,15718,58417,603 Canada

33,00032,50035,39632,03322,78616,728 European Union

6,5006,0005,5018,0006,80111,069 Kazakhstan

1,1001,1001,1041,322729790 Mexico

23,50023,00022,80018,56811,28921,627 Russia

4,0004,0004,1364,2933,5833,678 Turkey

15,00013,50011,2699,7557,1905,436 Ukraine

1,1001,1008781,3458111,782 Uruguay

9,7929,68211,89513,37118,98211,928 Others

137,492133,382138,584130,858119,474125,623 Subtotal

23,00025,00022,75231,51827,73428,142 United States

160,492158,382161,336162,376147,208153,765 World Total

none

TY Imports

2,0002,0002,0002,0501,6002,200 Afghanistan

7,7007,7007,2577,4846,4846,500 Algeria

3,6003,6003,7973,3542,7252,039 Bangladesh

6,7007,0005,8697,0617,5477,053 Brazil

2,5002,2001,9266,7732,9602,933 China

11,50011,50011,06310,1708,30011,650 Egypt

6,0006,0005,9733,9745,2767,362 European Union

7,8007,8007,4787,3927,1466,457 Indonesia

4,5002,5005,0066,6005,6002,400 Iran

3,2003,2002,2533,2463,9483,784 Iraq

5,8005,8005,8786,1236,5986,354 Japan

4,2004,2003,9424,2885,4395,188 Korea, South

4,4004,4004,4464,6363,8235,020 Mexico

2,8002,8004,0733,8923,8253,671 Morocco

4,4004,4004,2444,5804,1383,903 Nigeria

1,8001,8001,9072,0781,6831,585 Peru

4,8004,8005,0993,4823,6454,075 Philippines

3,8003,8003,4873,4291,9212,904 Saudi Arabia

2,8002,8002,6322,6641,7932,360 Sudan

2,8002,6003,4891,6931,8452,646 Thailand

2,0002,0001,4611,6341,5231,473 Tunisia

3,8003,8005,9604,1543,3124,413 Turkey

2,2002,2002,2302,2241,8632,698 Uzbekistan

2,4002,4002,2962,1581,6712,711 Vietnam

3,3003,3003,2453,4253,1492,685 Yemen

48,11147,68647,32946,86043,46944,807 Others

154,911152,286154,340155,424141,283148,871 Subtotal

2,2312,7463,0092,1672,4491,857 Unaccounted

3,3503,3503,9874,7853,4763,037 United States

160,492158,382161,336162,376147,208153,765 World Total

TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes.


World Wheat Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Local Marketing Years, Thousand Metric Tons

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

Production

10,50011,00012,50010,5009,30015,500 Argentina

27,00026,00023,66625,30322,85629,905 Australia

26,00025,00029,42037,53027,20525,288 Canada

130,000130,000126,170121,930121,023117,400 China

8,3608,3608,3008,2508,5008,400 Egypt

155,263154,130156,523144,415133,949138,182 European Union

88,94088,94095,85093,51094,88086,870 India

14,00014,00013,00014,50013,80012,400 Iran

14,00014,00012,99613,9419,84122,732 Kazakhstan

8,0008,0005,1007,0003,8705,800 Morocco

25,00025,00025,50024,00023,30025,000 Pakistan

61,00061,00059,08052,09137,72056,240 Russia

19,50019,50015,25018,75016,00018,800 Turkey

27,00026,50024,75022,27815,76122,324 Ukraine

7,2007,2007,1506,8006,7006,300 Uzbekistan

55,18354,84655,09256,20952,69750,668 Others

676,946673,476670,347657,007597,402641,809 Subtotal

55,84058,13355,14758,10561,29854,244 United States

732,786731,609725,494715,112658,700696,053 World Total

none

Total Consumption

10,25010,25010,0509,8509,4508,950 Algeria

11,20011,50010,70011,40010,90011,200 Brazil

9,0009,0009,1159,4079,5309,852 Canada

116,500116,500118,000116,500125,000122,500 China

19,60019,60019,10018,50018,70018,600 Egypt

125,850125,850123,900117,200119,250127,234 European Union

94,54094,74093,13093,85283,82281,404 India

7,6507,6507,3657,1656,9506,250 Indonesia

18,00018,00017,50017,00016,00015,200 Iran

9,8009,8009,0009,0008,3008,800 Morocco

24,60024,60024,50024,10023,90023,100 Pakistan

37,00037,00035,50034,10033,55038,000 Russia

18,00018,00017,50017,75017,65018,100 Turkey

12,70012,70012,00011,50011,40014,950 Ukraine

9,1009,1008,9008,4008,0007,800 Uzbekistan

156,670157,012153,826150,945146,981145,443 Others

683,232682,640675,625664,213641,440665,556 Subtotal

33,17733,71931,53034,28737,76831,962 United States

716,409716,359707,155698,500679,208697,518 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

5,0034,5034,1784,5574,6637,051 Australia

5,5935,5937,10810,4365,1375,932 Canada

89,56789,26774,56765,27453,96055,946 China

15,48014,78013,0679,86710,71113,522 European Union

11,90011,90017,20017,83024,20019,950 India

7,3216,3217,8217,2215,086825 Iran

7,1327,6346,2825,1754,95210,899 Russia

63,05962,75361,38757,34748,91363,332 Others

205,055202,751191,610177,707157,622177,457 Subtotal

23,43323,80520,50116,06519,53820,211 United States

228,488226,556212,111193,772177,160197,668 World Total


Regional Wheat Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks

Thousand Metric Tons

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

Sep

2015/16

Oct

2015/16

TY Imports none

8,554 North America 7,784 9,862 8,923 8,235 8,235

1,666 Central America 1,654 1,833 1,837 1,795 1,795

13,779 South America 14,422 14,831 13,181 14,265 13,965

7,362 European Union - 28 5,276 3,974 5,973 6,000 6,000

1,930 Other Europe 1,703 1,921 1,748 1,895 1,895

8,022 Former Soviet Union - 12 7,228 7,411 7,667 7,090 7,090

23,066 Middle East 24,163 28,341 26,928 23,600 26,000

24,855 North Africa 22,078 25,229 25,180 25,600 25,600

19,176 Sub-Saharan Africa 18,501 20,443 20,945 21,675 21,680

16,865 East Asia 17,352 19,463 14,120 14,610 14,910

5,487 South Asia 5,308 6,733 8,029 7,751 7,751

18,019 Southeast Asia 16,325 17,119 20,595 19,915 20,125

3,127 Others 2,965 3,049 3,201 3,205 3,215

151,908 Total 144,759 160,209 158,327 155,636 158,261

Production none

83,160 North America 91,734 99,012 88,254 86,833 85,540

25,766 South America 18,604 19,881 22,927 21,861 21,361

138,182 European Union - 28 133,949 144,415 156,523 154,130 155,263

3,597 Other Europe 3,431 4,059 3,856 4,132 4,132


39,285 Middle East 36,884 41,722 35,117 40,855 40,855

18,366 North Africa 17,320 19,722 16,900 19,560 20,260


118,775 East Asia 122,490 123,248 127,607 131,178 131,178

117,232 South Asia 126,237 125,710 129,595 122,060 122,060

30,288 Oceania 23,345 25,751 24,067 26,400 27,400

186 Others 186 201 201 201 201

696,053 Total 658,700 715,112 725,494 731,609 732,786

Domestic Consumption none

49,414 North America 53,923 50,344 47,495 49,719 49,177

26,085 South America 26,407 27,251 27,032 27,689 27,389

127,234 European Union - 28 119,250 117,200 123,900 125,850 125,850

4,871 Other Europe 4,721 4,757 4,810 4,890 4,890


56,723 Middle East 56,636 58,667 58,220 60,160 60,060

40,927 North Africa 41,421 42,424 42,676 44,325 44,325


137,057 East Asia 140,072 130,321 130,787 129,251 129,251

115,926 South Asia 121,005 132,045 132,253 134,726 134,526

16,665 Southeast Asia 16,520 16,574 19,030 19,530 19,730

7,824 Oceania 8,111 8,280 8,869 8,700 8,700

3,379 Others 3,366 3,494 3,555 3,594 3,594

689,345 Total 687,151 690,956 701,616 715,021 713,637

Ending Stocks none

26,718 North America 24,950 26,817 28,104 29,893 29,521

4,107 South America 3,839 7,063 7,015 6,701 6,701

13,522 European Union - 28 10,711 9,867 13,067 14,780 15,480

1,458 Other Europe 1,149 1,103 1,242 1,304 1,304


12,193 Middle East 13,798 18,345 17,830 17,755 19,295

14,094 North Africa 11,487 13,550 12,347 12,572 13,232


59,235 East Asia 57,509 68,487 78,091 93,093 93,393

25,448 South Asia 28,173 21,642 22,568 16,608 16,598

4,678 Southeast Asia 3,814 3,582 4,295 3,902 3,840

7,436 Oceania 4,983 4,875 4,461 4,777 5,276

372 Others 341 367 416 363 362

197,668 Total 177,160 193,772 212,111 226,556 228,488

NOTES: Regional definitions appear on last page of this circular. Imports are reported on a trade year basis. All other data are

reported using local marketing years.


9

RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

OVERVIEW

Global production for 2015/16 is down from last month due mainly to reductions for India and

Thailand. Global trade is marginally lower as reduced Thai exports are partly offset by Pakistan.

Global consumption is virtually unchanged, while stocks are reduced. U.S. exports are

unchanged.

The combined stocks level of the top three exporters --India, Thailand, and Vietnam-- is

projected to decline 36 percent (or 10 million tons) from a year ago. The sharp decline is due

mainly to reduced crops in India and Thailand. In particular, historic dryness in Thailand has led

the government to ban plantings of the off-season crop, which account for nearly 30 percent of

national production. The crop in Vietnam is currently forecast to be flat year-to-year, and

stronger exports are expected to draw down stocks. Tightening stocks in these exporters would

suggest strong prices, given that these countries account for over 60 percent of global exports.

However, prices in these countries have increased modestly (see below).

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f

MMT

India Thailand Vietnam

Top Exporters’ Stocks Fall Sharply


10

Export quotes for Thai and Viet rice are up from last month, supported by government-to-

government sales to the Philippines. Quotes for Viet 5 percent brokens are up $21 to $354 per

ton, while Thai 100B quotes rose $18 to $378 per ton during the month.

U.S. quotes are up $15 to $580 per ton, and their premium over Southeast Asian origins have

surpassed $200 per ton due in part to a strong U.S. dollar.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES for 2016

Thailand’s exports are cut 700,000 tons to 9.5 million on reduced supplies.

Pakistan’s exports are boosted 500,000 tons to 4.5 million on less competition from

Thailand.

Iraq’s imports are down 100,000 tons to 1.2 million on previous year’s level (for 2015,

imports are lowered 150,000 tons to 1.1 million reflecting delayed purchases via tenders).

Philippines’s imports are up 400,000 tons to 1.8 million to reflect approved purchases from

Vietnam and Thailand.

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10/6/2011 10/6/2012 10/6/2013 10/6/2014 10/6/2015

$/MT

U.S. #2/4 (long-grain) THAI 100B VIET 5%

Quotes Begin to Rise


World Rice Trade

January/December Year, Thousand Metric Tons

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

TY Exports

480480400494526608 Argentina

330330400404460449 Australia

8008008008508301,105 Brazil

1,8001,8002,0001,6881,1631,357 Burma

1,0001,0001,1001,0001,075900 Cambodia

400400400393447267 China

400400250600700600 Egypt

220220260284203194 European Union

520520500422346265 Guyana

9,5009,50011,50010,90710,48010,250 India

4,5004,0004,0003,6004,1263,399 Pakistan

500500400380365262 Paraguay

9,50010,2009,00010,9696,7226,945 Thailand

9509509509579391,056 Uruguay

7,0007,0006,2006,3256,7007,717 Vietnam

8718819541,0261,0891,276 Others

38,77138,98139,11440,29936,17136,650 Subtotal

3,2503,2503,3502,9983,2953,298 United States

42,02142,23142,46443,29739,46639,948 World Total

none

TY Imports

450450450496430360 Angola

8508507501,29011453 Bangladesh

700700450586712732 Brazil

530530525610550450 Cameroon

4,7004,7004,5004,1683,4832,900 China

9009501,0009508301,265 Cote d'Ivoire

500500450377413330 Cuba

1,5501,5501,5801,5561,3751,313 European Union

600650580590725595 Ghana

1,3001,3001,2501,2256501,960 Indonesia

1,6001,6001,7001,6502,2201,500 Iran

1,2001,3001,1001,0801,2941,478 Iraq

700700650669690650 Japan

460460450440410400 Kenya

1,0001,0009509898851,006 Malaysia

700785680658746680 Mexico

500500480500500445 Mozambique

3,0003,0004,0003,2002,4003,400 Nigeria

1,8001,4001,8001,8001,0001,500 Philippines

1,5501,5501,4601,4101,3261,193 Saudi Arabia

1,1001,1001,1001,2001,0751,200 Senegal

9501,000980910990870 South Africa

460460460450440430 United Arab Emirates

500500500480500375 Venezuela

500500400300100100 Vietnam

10,94811,06811,02312,64311,95511,289 Others

39,04839,10339,26840,22735,81336,474 Subtotal

2,1532,3082,3962,3152,9782,834 Unaccounted

820820800755675640 United States

42,02142,23142,46443,29739,46639,948 World Total

TY=Trade Year, see Endnotes. Note about dates: 2014/15 is calendar year 2015, 2013/14 is calendar year 2014, and so on.


World Rice Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

Milled Production

35,00035,00034,50034,39033,82033,700 Bangladesh

8,0008,0008,5008,3008,0377,888 Brazil

12,20012,20012,60011,95711,71511,473 Burma

4,7004,7004,7004,7254,6704,268 Cambodia

145,500145,500144,500142,530143,000140,700 China

4,0004,0004,5304,7504,6754,250 Egypt

103,500104,000104,800106,646105,240105,310 India

36,30036,30036,30036,30036,55036,500 Indonesia

7,9007,9007,8427,9377,9237,812 Japan

4,0004,0004,2414,2304,0064,224 Korea, South

3,1003,1003,1003,3613,0033,381 Nepal

6,9006,9006,9006,7005,8006,200 Pakistan

12,00012,00011,91511,85811,42810,710 Philippines

16,40018,00018,75020,46020,20020,460 Thailand

28,20028,20028,07428,16127,53727,152 Vietnam

40,36039,94240,48839,96838,84037,779 Others

468,060469,742471,740472,273466,444461,807 Subtotal

5,9636,0177,0686,1176,3485,866 United States

474,023475,759478,808478,390472,792467,673 World Total

none

Consumption and Residual

35,50035,50035,20034,90034,50034,300 Bangladesh

7,9507,9507,9007,9007,8507,928 Brazil

10,50010,50010,55010,45010,40010,200 Burma

3,7003,7003,7003,6503,5503,400 Cambodia

151,000151,000148,400146,300144,000139,600 China

4,0004,0004,0004,0004,0503,620 Egypt

99,20099,20099,25199,18094,03193,334 India

38,65038,65038,60038,50038,12738,188 Indonesia

8,3758,3758,3138,2858,3678,396 Japan

4,3604,3604,4504,4224,4894,880 Korea, South

3,5003,5003,5003,8113,3533,677 Nepal

6,0006,0006,4005,8005,3005,600 Nigeria

13,25013,25013,20012,85012,85012,860 Philippines

12,00012,00011,70010,87510,60010,400 Thailand

22,20022,20022,10022,00021,90019,650 Vietnam

61,31461,37561,10161,29259,04856,912 Others

483,536483,437480,504477,579465,109457,466 Subtotal

3,9813,9804,1173,9773,7793,492 United States

487,517487,417484,621481,556468,888460,958 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

1,5021,5021,4029376961,341 Bangladesh

45,60045,71146,80046,81146,82645,023 China

11,90612,50016,60622,75725,44025,100 India

3,4013,4014,4515,5016,4767,403 Indonesia

3,3623,4123,2123,1082,8572,735 Japan

2,5602,1252,1101,6951,4871,509 Philippines

5,2746,17410,07411,72412,8089,330 Thailand

13,42414,01715,58014,04213,02013,118 Others

87,02988,842100,235106,575109,610105,559 Subtotal

1,2641,3191,5521,0251,1561,303 United States

88,29390,161101,787107,600110,766106,862 World Total

Note: All data are reported on a milled basis.


Regional Rice Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

Sep

2015/16

Oct

2015/16

TY Imports none

1,664 North America 1,776 1,771 1,830 1,965 1,880

845 Caribbean 971 901 1,025 1,075 1,075

1,896 South America 1,843 1,824 1,737 1,897 1,897

114 Other Europe 125 89 130 125 125

456 Former Soviet Union - 12 537 554 421 476 476

6,455 Middle East 7,152 6,637 6,425 6,690 6,590

777 North Africa 487 480 485 485 485


4,389 East Asia 5,332 5,761 6,145 6,415 6,355

737 South Asia 722 2,581 1,670 1,620 1,620

5,488 Southeast Asia 3,606 5,020 5,065 4,850 5,250

2,158 Others 2,197 2,430 2,285 2,275 2,275

37,114 Total 36,488 40,982 40,068 39,923 39,868

Production none

5,979 North America 6,479 6,248 7,240 6,182 6,128

1,002 Caribbean 974 1,040 1,065 987 987

15,215 South America 15,852 16,384 16,743 16,277 16,277

2,139 European Union - 28 2,100 1,937 1,881 1,930 1,930


2,170 Middle East 2,251 2,450 2,443 2,359 2,359

4,289 North Africa 4,704 4,789 4,530 4,000 4,000


155,508 East Asia 157,859 157,794 159,383 160,170 160,170

152,067 South Asia 150,895 154,392 152,651 152,462 151,962

113,649 Southeast Asia 115,490 116,867 116,015 114,961 113,361

1,364 Others 1,518 1,278 1,208 1,159 1,159

467,673 Total 472,792 478,390 478,808 475,759 474,023


4,668 North America 4,977 5,202 5,337 5,250 5,211

1,156 Central America 1,181 1,188 1,193 1,212 1,212

1,977 Caribbean 1,964 1,973 2,131 2,088 2,078

14,180 South America 14,404 14,556 14,653 14,809 14,809

3,300 European Union - 28 3,250 3,250 3,265 3,280 3,280


8,603 Middle East 8,854 9,029 8,875 9,070 8,940

4,045 North Africa 4,572 4,480 4,460 4,460 4,460


156,232 East Asia 160,365 162,627 164,568 167,065 167,005

137,234 South Asia 137,576 143,946 144,542 144,762 144,762

99,148 Southeast Asia 102,008 103,102 104,706 105,241 105,241

661 Others 707 676 530 540 540

456,437 Total 466,194 478,192 482,482 485,540 485,480

Ending Stocks none

1,455 North America 1,345 1,176 1,662 1,472 1,366

273 Central America 241 217 211 208 208

343 Caribbean 279 261 226 227 210

1,606 South America 1,491 1,805 2,068 1,850 1,832

1,146 European Union - 28 1,188 1,163 1,129 1,099 1,099

1,526 Middle East 2,039 1,836 1,624 1,688 1,603

487 North Africa 427 602 907 532 532


48,887 East Asia 50,826 51,183 51,456 50,641 50,480

27,511 South Asia 27,019 25,731 20,520 16,679 15,585

21,369 Southeast Asia 23,197 21,395 19,369 13,804 13,339

40 Oceania 238 241 182 102 102

134 Others 179 155 122 182 152

106,862 Total 110,766 107,600 101,787 90,161 88,293




14

150

175

200

225

250

275

$/M

T

Corn Daily Export Bids

U.S. Gulf Brazil Paranagua Black Sea Argentina Up River

COARSE GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE OVERVIEW World corn production in 2015/16 is down, with smaller crops in the United States, Ukraine, Argentina, and Ethiopia more than offsetting a higher forecast for Brazil. Global trade is little changed overall, with lower exports for Argentina and Ukraine and a higher forecast for Brazil. U.S. exports are unchanged and the season-average farm price is up slightly. PRICES Since the release of the September WASDE report, U.S. corn quotes rose slightly by $4/ton to $183, on uncertainty over crop production. USDA’s September 30 Grain Stocks report confirmed abundant U.S. supplies, but nearby prices are uncompetitive and underscore recent lackluster sales and shipments. Argentine and Brazilian quotes were up slightly; Black Sea quotes dropped slightly over the same period.


15

TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16 Selected Exporters

Argentine corn is lowered 500,000 tons to 15.0 million on reduced crop prospects.

(Exports for 2014/15 are also down 500,000 tons to 18.5 million.)

Brazilian corn is boosted 2.0 million tons to a new record 31.0 million on higher crop prospects and record old crop exportable supplies. Trade has been boosted to a new record each of the last 4 months as production estimates have risen.

Ukrainian corn is down 1.5 million tons to 17.0 million due to a sharp cut in production. (Exports for 2014/15 are up 300,000 tons to 19.8 million.)

Canadian barley is up 300,000 tons to 1.5 million because of greater exportable supplies

and reduced competition.

Russian barley is lowered 500,000 tons to 4.0 million based on a sharply reduced crop.

Ukrainian barley is down 500,000 tons to 3.5 million based on higher-than-anticipated late-season shipments for 2014/15. (Exports for 2014/15 are up 500,000 tons to 4.0 million.)

Selected Importers

Saudi corn is lowered 500,000 tons to 4.0 million based on weaker-than-expected trade last year; however the trade and consumption forecast still reflect robust growth in poultry production. (Imports for 2014/15 are down 500,000 tons to 3.0 million.)

Saudi barley is cut 500,000 tons to 7.0 million on higher-than-anticipated late-season

shipments for 2014/15. (Imports for 2014/15 are up 900,000 tons to 7.5 million.)


16

TRADE CHANGES IN 2014/15 Selected Exporters - based on trade data

U.S. corn is down 200,000 tons to 46.8 million.

EU corn is raised 200,000 tons to 4.0 million.

South African corn is lowered 200,000 tons to 800,000.

EU barley is boosted 1.0 million tons to a record 10.5 million based on licenses and trade data.

Australian sorghum is up 200,000 tons to a new record 1.7 million.

Selected Importers - based on trade data

Chinese corn is boosted 200,000 tons to a new record 5.7 million.

EU corn is lowered 400,000 tons to 8.6 million.

Chinese barley is raised 200,000 tons to a new record 9.0 million.


World Coarse Grain Trade

October/September Year, Thousand Metric Tons

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

TY Exports

18,50519,00521,10516,63029,49722,308 Argentina

7,3257,3257,5257,0036,4107,279 Australia

31,01529,01522,04022,05926,07812,677 Brazil

3,7003,4003,7855,4604,6583,853 Canada

8,3058,30514,9057,8378,9147,177 European Union

2,5002,5001,4504,5245,5414,858 India

2,3052,3052,7052,7182,8612,188 Paraguay

8,1108,6108,5207,0434,3655,997 Russia

1,7251,7252,9251,7556282,345 Serbia

20,68022,68024,00024,12515,52717,447 Ukraine

7,0457,1156,8278,6947,1067,127 Others

111,215111,985115,787107,848111,58593,256 Subtotal

58,33558,33556,33056,77220,58640,106 United States

169,550170,320172,117164,620132,171133,362 World Total

none

TY Imports

4,8104,8104,7604,9463,2893,741 Algeria

1,6101,7101,635714523764 Canada

1,7501,7501,6001,6211,3271,523 Chile

21,25021,25024,85012,4455,6047,924 China

4,8304,8304,7304,7954,0904,103 Colombia

1,1001,1001,1001,0111,0461,054 Dominican Republic

8,0558,0557,5558,7765,0967,252 Egypt

16,25516,2559,05016,26211,7776,908 European Union

3,0003,0003,5003,5012,7191,724 Indonesia

5,5005,5008,0006,6004,8005,700 Iran

2,1752,1752,0752,0731,5641,530 Israel

17,07517,09016,82517,50117,74317,730 Japan

1,4751,4751,5501,6721,4061,311 Jordan

1,1001,1001,000894202490 Kenya

10,09010,09010,09010,4998,2657,726 Korea, South

1,4501,4501,5001,4931,220829 Libya

3,6003,6003,4003,4763,0483,309 Malaysia

10,77510,77511,25011,3177,62712,819 Mexico

2,3002,3002,3002,8581,8312,479 Morocco

2,6252,6252,8502,3362,4041,927 Peru

11,02512,02510,52511,33112,39010,485 Saudi Arabia

4,4004,4004,3004,3564,3984,478 Taiwan

1,5001,5001,5001,4491,6101,071 Tunisia

2,0002,0002,0002,6272,1542,596 Venezuela

3,0003,0003,5002,8001,7001,600 Vietnam

16,30016,13017,83517,46815,46415,944 Others

159,050159,995159,280154,821123,297127,017 Subtotal

7,4507,2759,6046,4772,3593,203 Unaccounted

3,0503,0503,2333,3226,5153,142 United States

169,550170,320172,117164,620132,171133,362 World Total



World Coarse Grains Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

Production

32,46133,46133,53235,66537,24630,105 Argentina

12,77512,57511,66312,15811,41412,257 Australia

82,58381,58387,60382,60384,25375,884 Brazil

23,62823,30021,99228,74524,44522,921 Canada

231,500231,500222,170225,070212,192198,635 China

12,40013,79013,35014,46812,28612,264 Ethiopia

149,344148,588170,588158,976145,942149,923 European Union

41,10041,60041,97043,21039,94042,250 India

9,6009,6009,4009,1008,5008,850 Indonesia

31,97531,97532,32632,02028,88125,689 Mexico

17,95017,95019,01519,29218,57317,421 Nigeria

39,80041,80040,38635,73528,65833,077 Russia

14,10514,06811,27715,51812,87313,268 South Africa

14,07514,0759,47513,07510,59511,299 Turkey

34,77536,77539,34539,91829,52733,476 Ukraine

154,038155,994156,094148,480146,783147,174 Others

902,109908,634920,186914,033852,108834,493 Subtotal

365,138365,685377,234367,089285,311322,451 United States

1,267,2471,274,3191,297,4201,281,1221,137,4191,156,944 World Total

none

Domestic Consumption

14,97615,07614,33213,59512,05010,510 Argentina

61,84361,84359,92858,02855,80353,653 Brazil

21,51121,48321,23622,37220,33920,285 Canada

243,475243,475242,650227,600209,671196,192 China

15,40815,40814,80914,08012,91012,736 Egypt

12,62514,00014,05014,30012,15011,850 Ethiopia

161,320161,525163,870164,105153,095151,460 European Union

39,85039,85040,00037,60035,27537,750 India

12,52012,52011,82011,32010,52010,320 Iran

17,22517,24017,02517,64018,03017,990 Japan

42,59042,59041,94040,88536,19537,985 Mexico

18,15018,15018,95019,35018,70017,321 Nigeria

31,60032,10031,43928,61925,13427,728 Russia

14,13014,13013,08013,43013,00511,755 Turkey

13,95514,45515,18515,92714,66115,559 Ukraine

238,038240,334234,072225,674218,795214,768 Others

962,383968,633966,947932,803860,136866,037 Subtotal

313,164313,284311,344305,048275,537288,857 United States

1,275,5471,281,9171,278,2911,237,8511,135,6731,154,894 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

15,54415,54418,81919,25914,5599,821 Brazil

3,2543,3543,2274,6483,0243,390 Canada

91,78091,58082,58078,26068,37860,362 China

12,81512,55417,24115,56213,08315,745 European Union

6,0746,0747,2345,0944,6544,684 Iran

4,3724,3724,7123,5831,6281,857 Mexico

3,6933,6933,8733,8883,3913,211 Saudi Arabia

41,66543,52746,55847,45936,54740,160 Others

179,197180,698184,244177,753145,264139,230 Subtotal

43,69844,12646,95134,31323,53127,819 United States

222,895224,824231,195212,066168,795167,049 World Total


Regional Coarse Grains Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

Sep

2015/16

Oct

2015/16

TY Imports none

16,725 North America 14,665 15,353 16,118 15,535 15,435

2,769 Central America 2,470 2,923 3,275 3,350 3,350

2,156 Caribbean 2,327 2,330 2,410 2,410 2,410

11,967 South America 11,814 13,182 12,725 12,750 12,750

6,908 European Union - 28 11,777 16,262 9,050 16,255 16,255

1,038 Former Soviet Union - 12 725 832 807 815 815

23,515 Middle East 25,076 26,613 27,295 24,840 23,840

15,372 North Africa 13,046 19,522 17,615 18,115 18,115


38,040 East Asia 36,163 44,880 56,165 52,930 52,915

7,317 Southeast Asia 8,058 11,287 11,635 10,780 10,780

1,024 Others 946 1,330 1,315 1,265 1,315

130,159 Total 129,812 158,143 162,513 163,045 162,100

Production none

371,061 North America 338,637 427,854 431,552 420,960 420,741

119,682 South America 136,283 132,043 134,882 129,304 129,304

149,923 European Union - 28 145,942 158,976 170,588 148,588 149,344

9,497 Other Europe 6,570 8,813 10,696 8,546 8,446


20,412 Middle East 18,769 21,760 17,942 22,781 22,781

11,142 North Africa 10,126 11,647 11,192 12,532 12,532


200,771 East Asia 214,639 227,482 224,599 233,909 233,909

50,495 South Asia 48,589 52,250 51,018 50,458 49,958

28,379 Southeast Asia 29,138 30,968 31,483 32,703 32,503

12,813 Oceania 12,082 12,804 12,335 13,236 13,436

4,652 Others 4,833 5,050 4,523 4,807 4,807

1,156,944 Total 1,137,419 1,281,122 1,297,420 1,274,319 1,267,247


347,127 North America 332,071 368,305 374,520 377,357 377,265

85,901 South America 90,054 94,608 97,569 100,564 100,464

151,460 European Union - 28 153,095 164,105 163,870 161,525 161,320

8,375 Other Europe 7,100 7,702 8,037 8,040 8,040


41,186 Middle East 43,027 45,890 45,444 48,316 47,616

25,266 North Africa 24,941 27,998 29,896 30,940 30,940


228,717 East Asia 243,025 261,824 276,456 277,561 277,546

45,833 South Asia 43,444 46,591 49,213 49,128 49,128

34,612 Southeast Asia 35,867 37,904 40,140 41,565 41,365

6,518 Oceania 6,132 5,765 5,323 5,926 5,926

9,556 Others 9,573 10,080 10,159 10,439 10,439

1,136,719 Total 1,141,870 1,229,573 1,265,730 1,277,463 1,272,380

Ending Stocks none

33,066 North America 28,183 42,544 54,890 51,852 51,324

14,549 South America 20,442 26,281 24,670 20,235 20,335

15,745 European Union - 28 13,083 15,562 17,241 12,554 12,815

1,024 Other Europe 603 766 1,281 902 852


10,547 Middle East 10,059 11,840 13,071 12,306 12,306

5,504 North Africa 3,526 5,719 5,152 4,923 4,849


63,392 East Asia 71,035 81,590 85,848 94,851 95,051

2,938 South Asia 2,814 4,347 4,838 3,968 3,368

3,061 Southeast Asia 3,275 4,396 5,229 5,018 5,007

978 Oceania 915 1,133 930 1,035 1,235

788 Others 768 944 958 1,051 1,051

167,049 Total 168,795 212,066 231,195 224,824 222,895




World Corn Trade


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

TY Exports

15,00015,50018,50012,84622,78916,501 Argentina

31,00029,00022,00022,04126,04412,674 Brazil

900900850700550200 Burma

1,0001,0004,0002,4012,1933,287 European Union

2,0002,0001,1003,8894,7684,674 India

2,3002,3002,7002,7142,8582,188 Paraguay

4,0004,0002,9004,1921,9172,027 Russia

1,7001,7002,9001,7366012,331 Serbia

1,0001,0008002,1042,3981,831 South Africa

17,00018,50019,80020,00412,72615,157 Ukraine

4,8354,8854,7256,8435,4214,470 Others

80,73580,78580,27579,47082,26565,340 Subtotal

47,00047,00046,80050,68418,26238,342 United States

127,735127,785127,075130,154100,527103,682 World Total

none

TY Imports

4,2004,2004,0004,1562,9183,231 Algeria

1,5001,5001,500679493747 Canada

1,6001,6001,4001,456844906 Chile

3,0003,0005,7003,2772,7025,231 China

4,5004,5004,4004,4363,2663,209 Colombia

900900900928911743 Cuba

1,1001,1001,1001,0111,0461,054 Dominican Republic

8,0008,0007,5008,7265,0597,154 Egypt

16,00016,0008,60015,91911,3626,113 European Union

900900850767678691 Guatemala

3,0003,0003,5003,5012,7191,724 Indonesia

4,0004,0006,0005,5003,7004,000 Iran

1,8001,8001,7001,6521,2241,221 Israel

14,80014,80014,70015,12114,41214,892 Japan

1,0001,000900800100400 Kenya

10,00010,00010,00010,4068,1747,636 Korea, South

3,6003,6003,4003,4763,0483,309 Malaysia

10,50010,50011,00010,9545,67611,172 Mexico

2,1002,1002,0002,3491,6841,943 Morocco

2,5002,5002,7002,2322,2541,772 Peru

4,0004,5003,0002,6842,0631,816 Saudi Arabia

4,3004,3004,2004,1894,2324,341 Taiwan

1,1001,1001,000993846853 Tunisia

2,0002,0002,0002,6262,1542,596 Venezuela

3,0003,0003,5002,8001,7001,600 Vietnam

13,22513,07014,46113,73711,62212,335 Others

122,625122,970120,011124,37594,887100,689 Subtotal

4,3604,0656,2645,0521,3752,228 Unaccounted

7507508007274,265765 United States

127,735127,785127,075130,154100,527103,682 World Total



World Corn Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

Production

24,00025,00026,50026,00027,00021,000 Argentina

80,00079,00085,00080,00081,50073,000 Brazil

12,30012,30011,48714,19413,06011,359 Canada

225,000225,000215,670218,490205,614192,780 China

6,0006,0005,9605,8005,8005,500 Egypt

6,0007,0006,5007,4516,1586,069 Ethiopia

57,99657,99675,73064,63058,89668,123 European Union

23,00023,50023,67024,26022,26021,760 India

9,6009,6009,4009,1008,5008,850 Indonesia

23,50023,50025,00022,88021,59118,726 Mexico

7,0007,0007,5157,7007,6309,250 Nigeria

7,8008,0007,6717,5327,2617,130 Philippines

13,50013,50011,32511,6358,2136,962 Russia

13,50013,50010,80014,92512,36512,759 South Africa

25,00027,00028,45030,90020,92222,838 Ukraine

94,09595,12996,90794,64790,34390,878 Others

628,291633,025647,585640,144597,113576,984 Subtotal

344,311345,073361,091351,272273,192312,789 United States

972,602978,0981,008,676991,416870,305889,773 World Total

none

Total Consumption

10,00010,0009,4008,8007,9007,000 Argentina

59,00059,00057,00055,00052,50050,500 Brazil

13,35013,35012,80012,70011,60511,636 Canada

219,000219,000217,000212,000200,000188,000 China

14,50014,50013,90013,20012,00011,700 Egypt

76,50077,00078,50076,50069,60069,500 European Union

22,30022,30022,00019,60017,50017,200 India

12,50012,50012,10011,90010,90010,500 Indonesia

14,80014,80014,70015,10014,50014,900 Japan

10,10010,10010,1009,8918,4817,815 Korea, South

34,00034,00034,25031,70027,00029,000 Mexico

8,6008,8008,5008,0007,4007,400 Philippines

9,3009,3008,4007,5006,4004,700 Russia

11,40011,40011,20011,50011,00010,700 South Africa

8,4008,9009,4009,7008,1007,800 Ukraine

156,028158,452155,610150,236141,976140,994 Others

678,393683,222686,680660,491602,214606,090 Subtotal

302,401302,401301,851292,965262,973277,961 United States

980,794985,623988,531953,456865,187884,051 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

15,17215,17218,57218,97214,1509,212 Brazil

90,61090,41081,66077,31567,57059,335 China

5,1215,2698,6256,7955,1476,682 European Union

2,5742,5742,4991,7291,040732 Indonesia

4,6564,6565,8164,4763,2363,336 Iran

3,4443,4443,9442,6941,0611,316 Mexico

2,2232,3301,5982,1986641,276 South Africa

24,37725,38329,33530,41024,19425,792 Others

148,177149,238152,049144,589117,062107,681 Subtotal

39,65740,44843,97731,29220,85925,122 United States

187,834189,686196,026175,881137,921132,803 World Total


Regional Corn Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

Sep

2015/16

Oct

2015/16

TY Imports none

12,684 North America 10,434 12,360 13,300 12,750 12,750

2,766 Central America 2,470 2,922 3,275 3,350 3,350

9,886 South America 9,653 12,027 11,450 11,550 11,550

6,113 European Union - 28 11,362 15,919 8,600 16,000 16,000


10,853 Middle East 10,942 13,812 15,200 13,600 13,100

13,827 North Africa 11,154 17,036 15,300 16,150 16,150


32,282 East Asia 29,673 33,072 34,700 32,200 32,200

7,304 Southeast Asia 8,040 11,246 11,620 10,765 10,765

2,156 Caribbean 2,327 2,330 2,410 2,410 2,410

595 Others 677 977 1,000 935 985

101,454 Total 99,152 125,102 120,811 123,720 123,375

Production none

342,874 North America 307,843 388,346 397,578 380,873 380,111

105,578 South America 120,997 117,456 123,006 115,625 115,625

68,123 European Union - 28 58,896 64,630 75,730 57,996 57,996

7,810 Other Europe 4,915 7,210 8,945 6,776 6,676


7,164 Middle East 7,480 8,138 7,848 9,038 9,038

5,722 North Africa 5,891 6,001 6,161 6,201 6,201


194,585 East Asia 207,760 220,595 217,791 227,113 227,113

28,647 South Asia 29,636 31,912 31,330 30,970 30,470

3,602 Central America 3,743 3,893 3,366 3,650 3,650

28,138 Southeast Asia 28,893 30,721 31,238 32,458 32,258

1,307 Others 1,377 1,320 1,346 1,353 1,353

889,773 Total 870,305 991,416 1,008,676 978,098 972,602


318,597 North America 301,578 337,365 348,901 349,751 349,751

75,491 South America 79,031 83,666 86,710 89,345 89,345

69,500 European Union - 28 69,600 76,500 78,500 77,000 76,500

6,392 Other Europe 5,194 5,847 6,055 6,020 6,020


17,585 Middle East 18,710 19,785 21,885 23,335 22,635

18,000 North Africa 18,450 20,800 22,100 23,050 23,050


217,047 East Asia 229,434 243,295 248,155 250,325 250,325

23,875 South Asia 24,380 27,182 29,805 30,170 30,170

34,357 Southeast Asia 35,609 37,653 39,860 41,310 41,110

6,350 Central America 6,175 6,650 6,675 6,910 6,910

3,344 Others 3,556 3,586 3,760 3,770 3,770

867,306 Total 869,835 946,292 976,711 985,803 982,179

Ending Stocks none

27,803 North America 23,469 35,586 49,208 45,129 44,338

13,194 South America 18,483 23,762 22,658 18,343 18,343

6,682 European Union - 28 5,147 6,795 8,625 5,269 5,121

771 Other Europe 353 517 1,037 653 603


4,510 Middle East 4,228 5,957 7,025 6,283 6,283

2,994 North Africa 1,719 3,168 2,919 2,210 2,210


61,841 East Asia 69,734 80,134 84,445 93,183 93,383

1,644 South Asia 2,075 3,184 3,864 2,939 2,339

3,058 Southeast Asia 3,270 4,390 5,223 5,012 5,001

503 Central America 474 610 551 616 616

300 Others 334 392 478 486 486

132,803 Total 137,921 175,881 196,026 189,686 187,834




World Barley Trade


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

TY Exports

2,0002,0001,6002,8293,6473,631 Argentina

6,0006,0005,5006,2624,6215,819 Australia

1,5001,2001,5001,7141,3161,437 Canada

7,0007,00010,5004,9266,4733,646 European Union

40040030054654252 India

500500500575151659 Kazakhstan

4,0004,5005,5002,7622,3663,668 Russia

252525182614 Serbia

25251090103 Turkey

3,5004,0004,0003,8272,6592,166 Ukraine

35351006816622 Others

24,98525,68529,53523,53621,96721,217 Subtotal

300300300336163179 United States

25,28525,98529,83523,87222,13021,396 World Total

none

TY Imports

600600750778364501 Algeria

100100125781449 Azerbaijan

400400325338369274 Brazil

1002001259216 Canada

7,0007,0009,0004,8912,1842,541 China

275275275253232301 Colombia

1001002255852364 European Union

1,5001,5002,0001,1001,1001,700 Iran

325325325304244276 Israel

1,2001,2001,1501,2941,3561,257 Japan

800800900997831736 Jordan

400400400436388376 Kuwait

700700700681573183 Libya

12512510010847144 Mexico

200200300471147536 Morocco

1001001258710397 Peru

7,0007,5007,5008,50010,2008,600 Saudi Arabia

400400500456764218 Tunisia

400400400468541524 United Arab Emirates

12512520012625277 Uruguay

9751,0001,2921,6181,4261,646 Others

22,82523,45026,71723,05121,20820,406 Subtotal

1,9602,0352,668299491520 Unaccounted

500500450522431470 United States

25,28525,98529,83523,87222,13021,396 World Total



World Barley Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

Production

1,3001,3001,3001,5001,5001,350 Algeria

3,4003,4002,9004,7505,0004,500 Argentina

8,9008,7008,0149,1747,4728,221 Australia

2,0002,0002,2501,6741,9171,979 Belarus

7,6007,3007,11910,2378,0127,892 Canada

1,5001,5001,5001,5001,6261,637 China

1,9002,0402,1002,0531,7821,592 Ethiopia

59,80658,57160,47059,72254,87551,883 European Union

1,6001,6001,8301,7501,6201,660 India

3,3003,3003,2002,8002,7702,900 Iran

2,6002,6002,4122,5391,5002,593 Kazakhstan

3,5003,5001,7002,7001,2002,340 Morocco

17,50019,50020,02615,38913,95216,938 Russia

7,4007,4004,0007,3005,5007,000 Turkey

8,6008,6009,4507,5616,9359,098 Ukraine

9,0388,8768,9449,2078,7538,611 Others

139,944140,187137,215139,856124,414130,194 Subtotal

4,6664,5653,9534,7194,7683,370 United States

144,610144,752141,168144,575129,182133,564 World Total

none

Total Consumption

2,0502,0502,0502,0502,0001,800 Algeria

1,5001,6001,5001,6001,3001,200 Argentina

2,6002,6002,6002,8003,0003,300 Australia

2,2002,2002,1001,8002,0002,100 Belarus

6,2006,2006,4267,7206,8096,916 Canada

8,4008,40010,5006,3004,0003,800 China

2,0252,1502,1002,0001,7251,600 Ethiopia

52,70051,50051,10053,40051,00051,200 European Union

4,8004,8004,6004,5004,3004,100 Iran

2,1002,1001,9002,0001,3751,825 Kazakhstan

3,0003,0002,7002,3001,9003,100 Morocco

13,50014,00014,10012,70012,10014,300 Russia

8,0258,0258,1258,6258,3257,225 Saudi Arabia

6,9006,9005,3506,9506,2006,750 Turkey

4,5004,5004,5005,0005,1006,300 Ukraine

16,58316,43316,61616,74416,11715,778 Others

140,535139,985137,001136,308126,772131,030 Subtotal

4,4204,6364,2344,7754,6384,170 United States

144,955144,621141,235141,083131,410135,200 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

1,1541,2281,3041,1781,2171,458 Algeria

1,2171,3171,2171,9509831,195 Canada

5,4135,2295,6075,6965,0716,069 European Union

1,4181,4181,4186181,4181,348 Iran

1,0761,076376976189775 Morocco

1,2222,2221,622932726848 Russia

2,9762,9763,4863,3963,0062,814 Saudi Arabia

7,0036,7797,1487,4196,1046,879 Others

21,47922,24522,17822,16518,71421,386 Subtotal

2,0651,7491,7111,7911,7501,306 United States

23,54423,99423,88923,95620,46422,692 World Total


Regional Barley Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

Sep

2015/16

Oct

2015/16

TY Imports none

620 North America 499 639 675 825 725

851 South America 1,064 887 1,060 985 985

364 European Union - 28 52 58 225 100 100

209 Other Europe 127 163 130 160 160


12,543 Middle East 13,906 12,537 12,010 11,160 10,660

1,482 North Africa 1,885 2,433 2,300 1,950 1,950

100 Sub-Saharan Africa 52 116 105 90 65

3,924 East Asia 3,663 6,320 10,275 8,325 8,325

67 South Asia 7 12 15 10 10

19 Oceania 9 46 35 25 25

20,876 Total 21,639 23,573 27,167 23,950 23,325

Production none

11,749 North America 13,812 15,506 11,622 12,450 12,851

5,530 South America 6,084 5,880 3,922 4,500 4,500

51,883 European Union - 28 54,875 59,722 60,470 58,571 59,806

1,189 Other Europe 1,188 1,151 1,270 1,287 1,287


11,705 Middle East 9,689 12,070 8,648 12,348 12,348

4,410 North Africa 3,306 4,725 4,109 5,409 5,409


1,962 East Asia 1,920 1,800 1,801 1,790 1,790

2,272 South Asia 2,156 2,457 2,537 2,307 2,307

8,538 Oceania 7,911 9,590 8,424 9,115 9,315

133,564 Total 129,182 144,575 141,168 144,752 144,610


11,786 North America 12,347 13,195 11,360 11,536 11,320

3,077 South America 3,327 3,553 3,485 3,640 3,540

51,200 European Union - 28 51,000 53,400 51,100 51,500 52,700

1,366 Other Europe 1,298 1,298 1,389 1,422 1,422


22,016 Middle East 22,435 24,410 21,896 23,506 23,506

6,186 North Africa 5,560 6,230 6,859 6,958 6,958


5,580 East Asia 5,806 8,009 12,105 10,000 10,000

2,202 South Asia 2,067 1,913 2,112 2,012 2,012

3,650 Oceania 3,425 3,250 3,050 3,050 3,050

135,464 Total 131,889 141,264 140,501 141,094 141,503

Ending Stocks none

2,621 North America 3,014 3,980 3,117 3,265 3,481

547 South America 685 963 877 797 797

6,069 European Union - 28 5,071 5,696 5,607 5,229 5,413

205 Other Europe 223 208 196 196 196


5,940 Middle East 5,736 5,811 5,981 5,958 5,958

2,449 North Africa 1,740 2,482 2,159 2,634 2,560


961 East Asia 737 848 819 934 934

281 South Asia 144 255 246 151 151

576 Oceania 591 751 565 655 855

22,692 Total 20,464 23,956 23,889 23,994 23,544




World Sorghum Trade


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

TY Exports

1,5001,5001,0009533,0592,163 Argentina

9009001,7004051,4251,185 Australia

252525112736 China

1001005089231132 India

302540513216 Kenya

5050100505075 Nigeria

150150150229124113 Ukraine

130155187240209180 Others

2,8852,9053,2522,0285,1573,900 Subtotal

11,00011,0009,2005,7172,1361,549 United States

13,88513,90512,4527,7457,2935,449 World Total

none

TY Imports

100100100109404544 Chile

11,00011,00010,0004,16163184 China

505050104591592 Colombia

505075505030 Ethiopia

100100130186291126 European Union

1,0001,0009001,0031,8971,481 Japan

1001001009410274 Kenya

5050501621,7931,369 Mexico

501075125613 South Sudan

75757575175125 Sudan

305305307685674650 Others

12,88012,84011,8626,7546,6145,088 Subtotal

1,0051,065582988436358 Unaccounted

00832433 United States

13,88513,90512,4527,7457,2935,449 World Total



World Sorghum Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

Production

4,5004,5003,5004,4004,7004,200 Argentina

2,1002,1002,1041,2822,2302,239 Australia

2,0002,0002,0001,8902,1022,222 Brazil

1,9001,9001,8361,8801,9241,500 Burkina

1,1501,1501,1501,1501,1001,150 Cameroon

9009009007451,172648 Chad

2,6002,6002,6002,7002,5562,051 China

3,8004,0004,0004,1143,6043,951 Ethiopia

5,5005,5005,0505,5405,3006,030 India

1,3001,3001,3008201,2121,191 Mali

7,8007,8006,6868,5006,1746,425 Mexico

1,1001,1001,0001,2871,376807 Niger

6,1506,1506,7006,5925,9436,900 Nigeria

5,5005,5006,2812,2494,5244,605 Sudan

840840840832839807 Tanzania

6,8177,0826,7657,0366,6757,131 Others

53,95754,42252,71251,01751,43151,857 Subtotal

14,56914,59010,9889,9666,2935,410 United States

68,52669,01263,70060,98357,72457,267 World Total

none

Total Consumption

2,9002,9002,8002,7002,3001,900 Argentina

1,2051,2056059051,1051,105 Australia

1,9001,9002,0002,0002,3002,175 Brazil

1,9001,9001,8001,9001,9001,500 Burkina

1,1751,1751,1751,1651,1101,175 Cameroon

9009009008501,150650 Chad

13,40013,40012,6006,8003,2002,200 China

3,9004,1004,1004,2003,7003,700 Ethiopia

5,3505,3505,1005,2005,1506,000 India

1,0001,0009001,0001,9001,475 Japan

1,3001,3001,2009501,2001,300 Mali

7,7007,7006,8008,3008,1008,100 Mexico

1,1001,1001,1001,3001,200950 Niger

6,0506,0506,6506,5505,9006,800 Nigeria

5,8005,8006,0002,5504,7004,500 Sudan

8,0568,2888,2108,4789,0989,547 Others

64,66465,13162,04355,91852,81654,561 Subtotal

3,0483,0482,4294,1274,7963,916 United States

67,71268,17964,47260,04557,61258,477 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

8027028021,202781164 Argentina

231231141151272472 Brazil

526526351376326366 China

348348298398145223 India

726726576647285418 Mexico

200200150200208215 Nigeria

478478708357588609 Sudan

1,3971,4181,4661,5371,8041,632 Others

4,7084,6294,4924,8684,4094,099 Subtotal

1,0661,045468864385583 United States

5,7745,6744,9605,7324,7944,682 World Total


Regional Sorghum Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

Sep

2015/16

Oct

2015/16

TY Imports none

1,372 North America 2,036 165 58 50 50

1,199 South America 1,071 239 185 185 185

126 European Union - 28 291 186 130 100 100

0 Other Europe 0 0 0 0 0

101 Middle East 194 231 50 50 50

54 North Africa 0 41 5 5 5


1,655 East Asia 2,650 5,281 10,955 12,055 12,055

13 Southeast Asia 18 41 15 15 15

14 Others 11 16 15 15 15

5,091 Total 6,857 6,757 11,870 12,840 12,880

Production none

11,835 North America 12,467 18,466 17,674 22,390 22,369

312 Central America 339 335 335 335 335

92 Caribbean 92 94 94 94 94

7,246 South America 7,495 7,081 6,432 7,422 7,422

671 European Union - 28 473 703 878 760 747

764 Middle East 814 789 692 635 635

847 North Africa 763 755 756 756 756


2,054 East Asia 2,560 2,704 2,604 2,604 2,604

6,175 South Asia 5,445 5,685 5,195 5,645 5,645


2,239 Oceania 2,230 1,282 2,104 2,100 2,100

176 Others 208 250 180 175 175

57,267 Total 57,724 60,983 63,700 69,012 68,526


12,016 North America 12,896 12,427 9,229 10,748 10,748

320 Central America 325 325 330 340 340

92 Caribbean 92 94 94 94 94

6,104 South America 6,076 5,789 5,872 5,897 5,897

760 European Union - 28 795 880 995 850 845

789 Middle East 1,052 894 879 685 685

908 North Africa 756 794 756 756 756


3,771 East Asia 5,221 7,921 13,560 14,460 14,460

6,155 South Asia 5,305 5,360 5,260 5,510 5,510


1,105 Oceania 1,105 905 605 1,205 1,205

55 Others 80 25 30 30 30

56,993 Total 58,809 58,975 64,369 67,116 66,684

Ending Stocks none

1,001 North America 670 1,511 1,044 1,771 1,792

23 Central America 29 32 32 22 22

717 South America 1,145 1,426 1,026 991 1,091

14 European Union - 28 5 19 19 34 16

56 Middle East 65 47 35 35 35

60 North Africa 66 68 73 78 78


451 East Asia 413 466 440 614 614

223 South Asia 145 398 298 348 348

230 Oceania 195 187 186 181 181

17 Others 24 21 21 16 16

4,682 Total 4,794 5,732 4,960 5,674 5,774




World Oats Trade


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

TY Exports

5552213 Argentina

350350250270240174 Australia

1,6001,6001,7001,7321,3511,763 Canada

1001001004842106 Chile

150150225291126176 European Union

1010106418 Russia

101025622 Ukraine

10101014107 Others

2,2352,2352,3252,3691,7772,259 Subtotal


2,2652,2652,3502,3981,7952,287 World Total

none

TY Imports

1010101279 Algeria

555323 Bosnia and Herzegovina

10101026911 Canada

2502501501168768 China

555211 Colombia

202020211922 Ecuador


505050465154 Japan

10010010093111134 Mexico

404040383649 Norway

555222 Serbia

252550191111 South Africa

505050514456 Switzerland

555004 Turkey

555668 Uruguay

000107 Others

585585510439390442 Subtotal

8080909350115 Unaccounted

1,6001,6001,7501,8661,3551,730 United States

2,2652,2652,3502,3981,7952,287 World Total



World Oats Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

Production

11011011011011067 Algeria

485485525445496345 Argentina

1,3001,3001,0961,2551,1211,262 Australia

400400470352422448 Belarus

300300300380361354 Brazil

3,3103,3102,9793,9062,8303,158 Canada

760760500610680451 Chile

600600600580600600 China

7,4437,5317,8488,3927,9097,927 European Union

250250226305200258 Kazakhstan

909090908451 Mexico

236236236214232231 Norway

5,0005,0005,2674,9324,0275,332 Russia

210210210210210218 Turkey

450450610467630506 Ukraine

337337313328315372 Others

21,28121,36921,38022,57620,22721,580 Subtotal

1,3001,2401,019938892728 United States

22,58122,60922,39923,51421,11922,308 World Total

none

Total Consumption

12012012511811975 Algeria

500500525425500350 Argentina

9009008759509251,100 Australia

400400450375400450 Belarus

290290300375350350 Brazil

1,6501,6501,6871,6601,5921,361 Canada

650650450575575325 Chile

875875750700675625 China

7,4757,5757,6758,0757,7007,800 European Union

250250225275225225 Kazakhstan

190190190185195185 Mexico

270270270245295270 Norway

5,1005,1005,2004,9004,3005,000 Russia

215215215215215215 Turkey

450450600475600500 Ukraine

502502499497451519 Others

19,87919,97919,95220,26519,21419,589 Subtotal

2,8282,7552,4242,7572,7432,499 United States

22,70722,73422,37623,02221,95722,088 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

424262674955 Argentina

1261267610560134 Australia

7517516811,054446805 Canada

454535466223 Chile

110110135135139127 China

687726864906901795 European Union

176176286229203485 Russia

200200204199221225 Others

2,1372,1762,3432,7412,0812,649 Subtotal

860873780359527797 United States

2,9973,0493,1233,1002,6083,446 World Total


Regional Oats Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

Sep

2015/16

Oct

2015/16

TY Imports none

1,875 North America 1,475 1,985 1,860 1,710 1,710

31 South America 26 29 30 30 30

3 European Union - 28 4 3 5 5 5

110 Other Europe 84 94 100 100 100


4 Middle East 0 0 5 5 5

9 North Africa 7 12 10 10 10


122 East Asia 138 162 200 300 300

0 Oceania 0 0 0 0 0

2,172 Total 1,745 2,305 2,260 2,185 2,185

Production none

3,937 North America 3,806 4,934 4,088 4,640 4,700

1,191 South America 1,577 1,478 1,350 1,592 1,592

7,927 European Union - 28 7,909 8,392 7,848 7,531 7,443

373 Other Europe 365 348 369 372 372


218 Middle East 210 210 210 210 210

163 North Africa 166 166 166 166 166


602 East Asia 602 582 602 601 601

1,291 Oceania 1,139 1,283 1,132 1,336 1,336

22,308 Total 21,119 23,514 22,399 22,609 22,581


4,045 North America 4,530 4,602 4,301 4,595 4,668

1,092 South America 1,490 1,452 1,330 1,517 1,517

7,800 European Union - 28 7,700 8,075 7,675 7,575 7,475

478 Other Europe 474 429 461 467 467


215 Middle East 215 215 215 215 215

172 North Africa 175 174 181 176 176


685 East Asia 730 750 800 925 925

1,129 Oceania 943 978 911 936 936

21,849 Total 21,860 22,802 22,460 22,692 22,665

Ending Stocks none

1,605 North America 974 1,416 1,464 1,627 1,614

91 South America 129 130 109 104 104

795 European Union - 28 901 906 864 726 687

48 Other Europe 27 41 48 53 53


17 Middle East 12 7 7 7 7

1 North Africa 1 1 1 1 1


134 East Asia 144 138 140 116 116

134 Oceania 60 105 76 126 126

3,446 Total 2,608 3,100 3,123 3,049 2,997




World Rye Trade


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

TY Exports

55552525 Belarus

1001008597178159 Canada


1001001108378284 Russia

20202559169 Ukraine

000004 Others

375375400445419540 Subtotal


380380405451426548 World Total

none

TY Imports


252525333411 Israel

254025372746 Japan

10101081211 Korea, South

151515162111 Norway

5555250 Russia

555692 Switzerland

005129 Others

135150180202198392 Subtotal

45300457-18 Unaccounted

200200225204221174 United States

380380405451426548 World Total



World Rye Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16

Sep

2015/16

Oct

none

Production

8008009506481,082801 Belarus

230230218223337241 Canada

717147606259 Chile

7,4838,3738,85410,1578,7636,900 European Union

3,3003,3003,2793,3602,1322,967 Russia

350350350350370366 Turkey

350350475638676579 Ukraine

185185236174182181 Others

12,76913,65914,40915,61013,60412,094 Subtotal

292217183194166154 United States

13,06113,87614,59215,80413,77012,248 World Total

none

Total Consumption

565697524045 Argentina

8008009506501,000750 Belarus

123123134107127101 Canada

717147606259 Chile

7,8008,6008,9009,6508,7007,400 European Union

505065405030 Kazakhstan

272727282627 Norway

3,2003,2003,2503,1002,0002,850 Russia

350350350350375375 Turkey

375375475625625625 Ukraine

132147131156169171 Others

13,01413,80114,41414,82313,20412,404 Subtotal

467444406424387311 United States

13,48114,24514,82015,24713,59112,715 World Total

none

Ending Stocks

150150155160167110 Belarus

494942444625 Canada

6657991,0821,210795747 European Union

444475 Japan

270274265345153129 Russia

232323181824 Turkey

6153106128166132 Ukraine

222633 Others

1,2241,3541,6791,9151,3551,175 Subtotal


1,2741,3651,6941,9221,3651,186 World Total


Regional Rye Imports, Production, Consumption, and Stocks


2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15

Sep

2015/16

Oct

2015/16

TY Imports none

174 North America 221 204 225 200 200

0 South America 0 0 0 0 0

302 European Union - 28 68 96 90 50 50

14 Other Europe 32 23 20 20 20


14 Middle East 34 33 30 25 25


57 East Asia 39 45 35 50 35

0 Oceania 0 0 0 0 0

566 Total 419 406 405 350 335

Production none

395 North America 503 417 401 447 522

107 South America 105 115 147 130 130

6,900 European Union - 28 8,763 10,157 8,854 8,373 7,483

62 Other Europe 46 53 52 51 51


366 Middle East 370 350 350 350 350


0 East Asia 0 0 0 0 0

40 Oceania 40 20 20 22 22

12,248 Total 13,770 15,804 14,592 13,876 13,061


412 North America 514 531 540 567 590

107 South America 105 115 147 130 130

7,400 European Union - 28 8,700 9,650 8,900 8,600 7,800

76 Other Europe 78 77 72 71 71


386 Middle East 409 383 375 375 375


66 East Asia 37 48 35 50 35

40 Oceania 40 20 20 22 22

12,744 Total 13,561 15,242 14,832 14,243 13,451

Ending Stocks none

36 North America 56 51 57 60 99

0 South America 0 0 0 0 0

747 European Union - 28 795 1,210 1,082 799 665

0 Other Europe 0 0 0 0 0


24 Middle East 18 18 23 23 23


5 East Asia 7 4 4 4 4

0 Oceania 0 0 0 0 0

1,186 Total 1,365 1,922 1,694 1,365 1,274




35

HISTORICAL DATA SERIES FOR SELECTED REGIONS AND COUNTRIES

CONTENTS

European Union: Grain Supply and Demand ............................................... 36 China: Grain Supply and Demand ................................................................ 37 Other Europe: Grain Supply and Demand .................................................... 38 Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand ........................................ 39 Wheat Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters ................................ 43 Corn Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters ................................... 45 Barley Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters ................................ 47 Sorghum Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters ............................ 48

U.S. Grains: Supply and Distribution……………………………. .... ……..49 Total Wheat and Coarse Grains: Supply and Demand ................................. 50 World Wheat and Coarse Grains: Supply and Demand ............................... 51 World Corn and Barley: Supply and Demand .............................................. 52 World Rice: Supply and Demand ................................................................. 53

DG F/SA &F


European Union: Grain Supply and Demand

Wheat and Coarse Grains Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares

Area

Harvested

Yield Productio

n

Imports Exports Feed

Dom.

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Wheat

147.7 123.959.314.77.15.626.2 2004/05 28.3

132.9 128.263.015.76.85.126.0 2005/06 24.1

125.7 126.260.213.95.25.124.7 2006/07 14.8

120.8 117.252.412.46.84.924.9 2007/08 12.8

151.9 127.660.525.47.75.726.8 2008/09 19.4

139.7 125.657.522.35.45.426.0 2009/10 16.6

136.7 122.852.523.14.65.326.0 2010/11 11.9

138.2 127.257.516.77.45.325.8 2011/12 13.5

133.9 119.351.022.85.35.226.0 2012/13 10.7

144.4 117.249.032.04.05.625.9 2013/14 9.9

156.5 123.954.535.46.05.826.8 2014/15 13.1

155.3 125.957.033.06.05.826.7 2015/16 15.5

Coarse Grains

169.1 155.2118.94.83.05.033.9 2004/05 25.6

149.5 150.7112.44.32.74.533.2 2005/06 22.8

140.0 150.6112.94.58.14.332.4 2006/07 15.7

138.7 157.1121.64.520.34.332.6 2007/08 13.1

164.9 154.2116.15.73.14.834.0 2008/09 21.3

157.6 152.4114.83.02.94.832.9 2009/10 26.3

142.9 154.6116.96.28.54.730.2 2010/11 16.9

149.9 151.5113.26.57.05.030.2 2011/12 15.7

145.9 153.1113.77.411.84.731.4 2012/13 13.1

159.0 164.1122.48.616.25.131.4 2013/14 15.6

170.6 163.9121.514.08.95.530.8 2014/15 17.2

149.3 161.3118.88.816.44.930.3 2015/16 12.8

Wheat and Coarse Grains

316.8 279.1178.219.510.05.360.1 2004/05 54.0

282.3 278.9175.420.09.44.859.1 2005/06 46.9

265.7 276.8173.118.513.24.757.0 2006/07 30.5

259.5 274.2174.116.927.14.557.5 2007/08 25.9

316.9 281.8176.631.110.85.260.9 2008/09 40.7

297.3 278.0172.325.38.25.058.9 2009/10 42.9

279.5 277.5169.429.313.15.056.2 2010/11 28.8

288.1 278.7170.723.314.35.156.0 2011/12 29.3

279.9 272.3164.730.117.14.957.3 2012/13 23.8

303.4 281.3171.440.720.25.357.3 2013/14 25.4

327.1 287.8176.049.414.95.757.6 2014/15 30.3

304.6 287.2175.841.822.45.356.9 2015/16 28.3


China: Grain Supply and Demand


Area

Harvested

Yield Productio

n


Dom.

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Wheat

92.0 102.04.01.26.74.321.6 2004/05 38.8

97.4 101.53.51.41.14.322.8 2005/06 34.5

108.5 102.04.02.80.44.623.6 2006/07 38.6

109.3 106.08.02.80.04.623.7 2007/08 39.1

112.5 105.58.00.70.54.823.6 2008/09 45.8

115.1 107.010.00.91.44.724.3 2009/10 54.4

115.2 110.513.00.90.94.724.3 2010/11 59.1

117.4 122.524.01.02.94.824.3 2011/12 55.9

121.0 125.025.01.03.05.024.3 2012/13 54.0

121.9 116.516.00.96.85.124.1 2013/14 65.3

126.2 118.017.00.81.95.224.1 2014/15 74.6

130.0 116.515.01.02.55.424.2 2015/16 89.6

Coarse Grains

138.3 141.1100.37.62.14.928.0 2004/05 37.6

147.8 147.1103.53.82.35.128.8 2005/06 36.9

159.0 153.5105.05.51.25.131.1 2006/07 38.0

159.2 157.9106.70.91.25.031.9 2007/08 39.5

172.4 161.2109.10.21.75.432.2 2008/09 52.2

169.8 173.3119.10.23.85.133.4 2009/10 52.3

183.8 188.4128.80.22.75.334.6 2010/11 50.1

198.6 196.2132.00.17.95.635.5 2011/12 60.4

212.2 209.7146.10.15.65.737.1 2012/13 68.4

225.1 227.6161.80.012.45.938.4 2013/14 78.3

222.2 242.7174.60.124.95.739.1 2014/15 82.6

231.5 243.5173.10.121.35.839.8 2015/16 91.8


230.2 243.1104.38.88.84.649.6 2004/05 76.4

245.3 248.6107.05.23.44.851.6 2005/06 71.4

267.4 255.5109.08.21.54.954.7 2006/07 76.6

268.5 263.9114.73.71.24.855.6 2007/08 78.6

284.9 266.7117.10.92.15.155.8 2008/09 98.0

284.9 280.3129.11.15.24.957.6 2009/10 106.7

299.0 298.9141.81.13.65.158.9 2010/11 109.2

316.0 318.7156.01.110.95.359.8 2011/12 116.3

333.2 334.7171.11.18.65.461.3 2012/13 122.3

347.0 344.1177.80.919.25.662.5 2013/14 143.5

348.3 360.7191.60.926.85.563.1 2014/15 157.1

361.5 360.0188.11.123.85.764.0 2015/16 181.3


Other Europe: Grain Supply and Demand


Area

Harvested

Yield Productio

n


Dom.

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Wheat

4.6 5.20.90.31.44.31.1 2004/05 1.3

3.8 5.10.90.21.43.81.0 2005/06 1.1

3.5 4.60.70.31.53.61.0 2006/07 1.2

3.7 4.81.00.51.93.81.0 2007/08 1.5

4.0 5.11.20.41.74.40.9 2008/09 1.7

3.8 4.91.00.51.73.91.0 2009/10 1.7

3.2 4.70.80.61.73.70.9 2010/11 1.3

3.6 4.91.00.51.94.20.9 2011/12 1.5

3.4 4.71.00.71.74.00.9 2012/13 1.1

4.1 4.81.11.31.94.40.9 2013/14 1.1

3.9 4.81.10.71.74.20.9 2014/15 1.2

4.1 4.91.11.11.94.31.0 2015/16 1.3

Coarse Grains

10.4 9.58.40.60.55.02.1 2004/05 1.5

10.1 9.78.51.30.64.82.1 2005/06 1.3

9.8 9.68.50.90.84.92.0 2006/07 1.3

6.9 7.96.80.10.93.42.0 2007/08 1.1

9.7 8.77.61.50.64.62.1 2008/09 1.1

9.7 8.77.51.40.74.92.0 2009/10 1.4

10.0 8.77.32.00.75.02.0 2010/11 1.5

9.5 8.47.02.40.84.62.1 2011/12 1.0

6.6 7.15.90.60.73.22.1 2012/13 0.6

8.8 7.76.31.80.94.42.0 2013/14 0.8

10.7 8.06.63.00.95.51.9 2014/15 1.3

8.4 8.06.51.70.94.41.9 2015/16 0.9


15.1 14.89.30.91.94.83.2 2004/05 2.8

13.9 14.89.41.42.04.53.1 2005/06 2.4

13.3 14.29.21.22.34.53.0 2006/07 2.5

10.6 12.67.80.62.73.53.0 2007/08 2.6

13.7 13.88.81.92.34.63.0 2008/09 2.8

13.5 13.78.51.92.44.53.0 2009/10 3.2

13.2 13.48.12.62.44.62.9 2010/11 2.7

13.1 13.28.12.82.74.52.9 2011/12 2.5

10.0 11.87.01.32.43.42.9 2012/13 1.8

12.9 12.57.43.12.84.42.9 2013/14 1.9

14.6 12.87.73.72.65.12.9 2014/15 2.5

12.6 12.97.72.82.84.42.9 2015/16 2.2


Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand


Area

Harvested

Yield Productio

n


Dom.

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Wheat

114.0 78.326.537.35.42.252.6 2009/10 25.8

81.0 75.724.413.95.51.845.8 2010/11 22.7

115.0 80.028.339.78.02.349.7 2011/12 26.0

77.8 71.721.525.47.21.844.0 2012/13 13.9

103.9 72.922.837.17.42.247.7 2013/14 15.1

112.7 75.824.640.27.72.446.6 2014/15 19.5

117.5 78.125.845.47.12.448.9 2015/16 20.5

Coarse Grains

67.6 55.039.015.00.42.527.2 2009/10 7.4

47.5 41.828.48.81.22.221.9 2010/11 5.5

78.6 54.438.624.61.02.927.0 2011/12 6.2

68.2 50.235.619.90.72.527.5 2012/13 5.0

87.6 55.640.030.90.83.029.4 2013/14 7.0

91.5 58.041.833.70.83.030.3 2014/15 7.6

85.8 57.341.130.90.83.028.4 2015/16 6.0


Millions of Tons/Hectares

Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand (Wheat)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY

Exports

MY

Imports

Productio

n

YieldCountry Mktg Year

Former Soviet Union - 12

Kazakhstan

9.8 6.82.06.30.00.812.4 2012/13 2.9

13.9 6.82.08.10.01.113.0 2013/14 2.0

13.0 6.82.05.50.61.111.9 2014/15 3.2

14.0 6.82.06.50.01.211.5 2015/16 4.0

Russia

37.7 33.611.911.31.21.821.3 2012/13 5.0

52.1 34.112.518.60.82.223.4 2013/14 5.2

59.1 35.513.022.80.32.523.6 2014/15 6.3

61.0 37.014.023.50.42.425.7 2015/16 7.1

Ukraine

15.8 11.43.17.20.02.85.6 2012/13 2.6

22.3 11.53.49.80.13.46.6 2013/14 3.7

24.8 12.04.011.30.03.96.3 2014/15 5.2

27.0 12.74.515.00.13.97.0 2015/16 4.5

Uzbekistan

6.7 8.01.70.41.94.81.4 2012/13 1.6

6.8 8.41.90.32.24.91.4 2013/14 1.9

7.2 8.92.20.22.25.11.4 2014/15 2.2

7.2 9.12.20.22.25.11.4 2015/16 2.3

Other Former Soviet Union - 12

7.8 12.02.80.34.12.43.2 2012/13 1.9

8.8 12.13.00.44.32.63.4 2013/14 2.4

8.8 12.63.40.44.52.63.4 2014/15 2.6

8.3 12.53.10.24.52.53.3 2015/16 2.6

Total Former Soviet Union - 12

77.8 71.721.525.47.21.844.0 2012/13 13.9

103.9 72.922.837.17.42.247.7 2013/14 15.1

112.7 75.824.640.27.72.446.6 2014/15 19.5

117.5 78.125.845.47.12.448.9 2015/16 20.5



Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand (Barley)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY

Exports

MY

Imports

Productio

n



Kazakhstan

1.5 1.41.20.20.00.91.6 2012/13 0.2

2.5 2.01.70.50.01.41.8 2013/14 0.2

2.4 1.91.60.50.01.31.9 2014/15 0.2

2.6 2.11.80.50.01.32.0 2015/16 0.2

Russia

14.0 12.17.72.20.31.87.6 2012/13 0.7

15.4 12.78.32.70.21.98.0 2013/14 0.9

20.0 14.19.25.30.12.38.8 2014/15 1.6

17.5 13.58.74.50.12.27.8 2015/16 1.2

Ukraine

6.9 5.13.52.10.02.13.3 2012/13 0.9

7.6 5.03.52.50.02.33.2 2013/14 1.0

9.5 4.53.04.50.03.03.2 2014/15 1.5

8.6 4.53.04.50.03.02.9 2015/16 1.1

Uzbekistan

0.2 0.30.20.00.03.20.1 2012/13 0.0

0.2 0.30.20.00.03.20.1 2013/14 0.0

0.2 0.30.20.00.13.20.1 2014/15 0.0

0.2 0.30.30.00.13.20.1 2015/16 0.0


3.3 3.52.70.00.12.81.2 2012/13 0.4

3.4 3.52.70.00.12.51.4 2013/14 0.4

3.6 3.72.90.00.22.61.4 2014/15 0.5

3.6 4.03.10.00.22.61.4 2015/16 0.3


26.0 22.315.24.60.41.913.8 2012/13 2.2

29.2 23.516.45.70.32.014.5 2013/14 2.6

35.8 24.516.910.30.42.315.4 2014/15 3.8

32.6 24.416.99.50.32.314.2 2015/16 2.8



Former Soviet Union: Grain Supply and Demand (Corn)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY

Exports

MY

Imports

Productio

n



Kazakhstan

0.5 0.50.40.00.05.00.1 2012/13 0.0

0.6 0.60.50.00.05.30.1 2013/14 0.0

0.7 0.60.50.00.05.30.1 2014/15 0.1

0.5 0.60.50.00.05.00.1 2015/16 0.0

Russia

8.2 6.45.61.90.14.21.9 2012/13 0.3

11.6 7.56.64.20.15.02.3 2013/14 0.3

11.3 8.47.42.90.14.42.6 2014/15 0.4

13.5 9.38.34.00.15.02.7 2015/16 0.6

Ukraine

20.9 8.16.812.70.04.84.4 2012/13 1.2

30.9 9.78.320.00.16.44.8 2013/14 2.5

28.5 9.48.019.80.16.24.6 2014/15 1.8

25.0 8.47.017.00.16.34.0 2015/16 1.4

Uzbekistan

0.1 0.10.10.00.03.40.0 2012/13 0.0

0.1 0.20.10.00.03.40.0 2013/14 0.0

0.1 0.20.10.00.03.40.0 2014/15 0.0

0.1 0.10.10.00.03.40.0 2015/16 0.0


2.6 3.02.60.40.22.71.0 2012/13 0.5

3.7 3.22.90.60.33.81.0 2013/14 0.6

2.9 3.02.70.30.33.50.8 2014/15 0.6

2.6 3.12.70.10.43.00.9 2015/16 0.4


32.3 18.115.515.00.34.47.4 2012/13 2.0

46.9 21.118.424.80.55.78.3 2013/14 3.4

43.5 21.518.723.00.55.38.2 2014/15 2.8

41.8 21.518.621.10.55.47.7 2015/16 2.4


Million Metric Tons/Hectares

Wheat Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY

Exports

MY

Imports

Productio

n


Wheat Competitors

Argentina

15.5 6.00.112.90.03.05.2 2011/12 0.7

9.3 6.20.33.60.02.63.6 2012/13 0.3

10.5 6.10.12.30.03.03.5 2013/14 2.5

12.5 6.40.35.50.03.04.2 2014/15 3.2

10.5 6.20.15.00.03.03.5 2015/16 2.6

Australia

29.9 6.53.224.70.12.213.9 2011/12 7.1

22.9 6.73.418.60.11.813.0 2012/13 4.7

25.3 7.03.618.60.22.012.6 2013/14 4.6

23.7 7.54.116.70.21.713.8 2014/15 4.2

27.0 7.33.919.00.22.013.8 2015/16 5.0

Canada

25.3 9.94.717.40.53.08.6 2011/12 5.9

27.2 9.54.319.00.52.99.5 2012/13 5.1

37.5 9.44.223.30.43.610.4 2013/14 10.4

29.4 9.13.824.10.53.19.5 2014/15 7.1

26.0 9.03.819.00.52.79.6 2015/16 5.6

European Union

138.2 127.257.516.77.45.325.8 2011/12 13.5

133.9 119.351.022.85.35.226.0 2012/13 10.7

144.4 117.249.032.04.05.625.9 2013/14 9.9

156.5 123.954.535.46.05.826.8 2014/15 13.1

155.3 125.957.033.06.05.826.7 2015/16 15.5

Kazakhstan

22.7 7.62.611.80.01.713.7 2011/12 6.2

9.8 6.82.06.30.00.812.4 2012/13 2.9

13.9 6.82.08.10.01.113.0 2013/14 2.0

13.0 6.82.05.50.61.111.9 2014/15 3.2

14.0 6.82.06.50.01.211.5 2015/16 4.0

Russia

56.2 38.015.521.60.62.324.8 2011/12 10.9

37.7 33.611.911.31.21.821.3 2012/13 5.0

52.1 34.112.518.60.82.223.4 2013/14 5.2

59.1 35.513.022.80.32.523.6 2014/15 6.3

61.0 37.014.023.50.42.425.7 2015/16 7.1



Wheat Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY

Exports

MY

Imports

Productio

n


Ukraine

22.3 15.06.15.40.13.46.7 2011/12 5.4

15.8 11.43.17.20.02.85.6 2012/13 2.6

22.3 11.53.49.80.13.46.6 2013/14 3.7

24.8 12.04.011.30.03.96.3 2014/15 5.2

27.0 12.74.515.00.13.97.0 2015/16 4.5

Total Wheat Competitors

310.2 210.189.7110.68.63.198.6 2011/12 49.7

256.6 193.576.088.77.12.891.4 2012/13 31.3

306.1 192.074.8112.65.53.295.4 2013/14 38.2

318.9 201.281.7121.37.63.396.2 2014/15 42.2

320.8 204.885.3121.07.13.397.8 2015/16 44.3



Corn Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY

Exports

MY

Imports

Productio

n


Argentina

22.0 6.84.914.80.06.53.4 2007/08 2.1

15.5 6.44.510.30.06.22.5 2008/09 0.9

25.0 6.95.016.50.08.33.0 2009/10 2.5

25.2 7.35.316.30.06.73.8 2010/11 4.0

21.0 7.04.817.10.05.83.6 2011/12 0.9

27.0 7.95.318.70.06.84.0 2012/13 1.3

26.0 8.85.817.10.07.63.4 2013/14 1.4

26.5 9.46.117.00.08.33.2 2014/15 1.5

24.0 10.06.514.50.08.03.0 2015/16 1.0

Brazil

58.6 42.536.07.80.74.014.7 2007/08 12.6

51.0 45.538.57.11.13.614.1 2008/09 12.1

56.1 47.040.011.60.44.312.9 2009/10 10.0

57.4 49.542.58.40.84.213.8 2010/11 10.3

73.0 50.543.024.30.84.815.2 2011/12 9.2

81.5 52.544.524.90.95.215.8 2012/13 14.2

80.0 55.046.021.00.85.115.8 2013/14 19.0

85.0 57.048.029.00.65.415.8 2014/15 18.6

80.0 59.050.025.00.65.215.5 2015/16 15.2

China

152.3 150.0106.00.50.05.229.5 2007/08 38.4

165.9 153.0108.00.20.05.629.9 2008/09 51.2

164.0 165.0118.00.21.35.331.2 2009/10 51.3

177.2 180.0128.00.11.05.532.5 2010/11 49.4

192.8 188.0131.00.15.25.733.5 2011/12 59.3

205.6 200.0144.00.12.75.935.0 2012/13 67.6

218.5 212.0154.00.03.36.036.3 2013/14 77.3

215.7 217.0157.00.05.75.837.1 2014/15 81.7

225.0 219.0157.00.13.05.937.9 2015/16 90.6

South Africa

13.2 10.14.82.20.04.03.3 2007/08 1.4

12.6 10.34.71.70.04.32.9 2008/09 2.0

13.4 10.64.92.10.04.13.3 2009/10 2.8

10.9 10.75.02.40.43.82.9 2010/11 1.0

12.8 10.75.01.80.04.13.1 2011/12 1.3

12.4 11.05.12.10.13.83.2 2012/13 0.7



Corn Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters (Continued)

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY

Exports

MY

Imports

Productio

n


14.9 11.55.52.00.14.93.1 2013/14 2.2

10.8 11.25.50.70.53.53.0 2014/15 1.6

13.5 11.45.51.50.04.23.2 2015/16 2.2

Total Corn Competitors

246.1 209.4151.725.30.84.850.9 2007/08 54.5

245.0 215.2155.719.31.25.049.4 2008/09 66.2

258.5 229.5167.930.31.75.150.4 2009/10 66.5

270.8 247.5180.827.32.25.152.9 2010/11 64.7

299.5 256.2183.843.46.05.455.5 2011/12 70.7

326.5 271.4198.945.83.75.658.1 2012/13 83.7

339.4 287.3211.340.04.15.858.6 2013/14 99.9

338.0 294.6216.646.76.85.759.1 2014/15 103.3

342.5 299.4219.041.13.65.859.6 2015/16 109.0



Barley Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY

Exports

MY

Imports

Productio

n


Australia

7.2 3.12.13.40.01.54.9 2007/08 1.7

8.0 4.02.93.20.01.65.0 2008/09 2.4

7.9 4.53.33.90.01.84.4 2009/10 1.9

8.0 4.23.04.70.02.23.7 2010/11 1.0

8.2 3.32.15.40.02.23.7 2011/12 0.5

7.5 3.01.84.50.02.13.6 2012/13 0.5

9.2 2.81.56.20.02.43.8 2013/14 0.7

8.0 2.61.35.60.02.13.8 2014/15 0.5

8.9 2.61.36.00.02.24.0 2015/16 0.8

Canada

10.9 7.86.43.00.12.84.0 2007/08 1.6

11.8 8.97.61.50.03.43.5 2008/09 3.0

9.5 8.77.51.30.03.32.9 2009/10 2.5

7.6 7.56.31.20.03.22.4 2010/11 1.5

7.9 6.95.71.30.03.32.4 2011/12 1.2

8.0 6.85.71.40.02.92.8 2012/13 1.0

10.2 7.76.51.60.03.92.7 2013/14 2.0

7.1 6.45.21.50.13.32.1 2014/15 1.2

7.6 6.25.01.50.13.22.4 2015/16 1.2

European Union

57.8 54.538.93.80.34.213.9 2007/08 5.7

65.8 57.341.73.60.34.514.6 2008/09 11.0

62.4 56.841.71.10.14.514.0 2009/10 15.6

53.7 56.641.34.90.24.312.5 2010/11 7.9

51.9 51.235.83.00.54.311.9 2011/12 6.1

54.9 51.035.54.90.14.412.5 2012/13 5.1

59.7 53.438.05.70.04.812.4 2013/14 5.7

60.5 51.135.59.50.14.912.4 2014/15 5.6

59.8 52.737.07.50.24.912.3 2015/16 5.4



Sorghum Supply and Disappearance: Selected Exporters

Area

Harvested

Ending

Stocks

Total

Consumpti

Feed and

Residual

MY

Exports

MY

Imports

Productio

n


Argentina

2.9 1.21.01.20.04.70.6 2007/08 0.7

1.7 1.11.01.10.03.70.5 2008/09 0.2

3.6 1.91.71.80.04.80.8 2009/10 0.2

4.4 1.91.71.70.04.41.0 2010/11 0.9

4.2 1.91.73.10.04.21.0 2011/12 0.2

4.7 2.32.01.80.04.51.1 2012/13 0.8

4.4 2.72.31.30.04.41.0 2013/14 1.2

3.5 2.82.41.10.04.50.8 2014/15 0.8

4.5 2.92.51.60.04.51.0 2015/16 0.8

Australia

3.8 2.22.20.80.04.00.9 2007/08 0.8

2.7 1.81.81.00.03.50.8 2008/09 0.7

1.5 1.21.20.30.03.00.5 2009/10 0.7

1.9 1.41.40.90.03.10.6 2010/11 0.4

2.2 1.11.11.30.03.40.7 2011/12 0.2

2.2 1.11.11.20.03.40.6 2012/13 0.2

1.3 0.90.90.40.02.40.5 2013/14 0.2

2.1 0.60.61.50.03.20.7 2014/15 0.2

2.1 1.21.20.90.03.00.7 2015/16 0.2


U.S. Grains Supply and Distribution: Wheat, Corn, Sorghum, Barley, Oats, Rye, and Rice

Thousand Metric Tons/Hectares

Area

Harvested

Yield Rough

Production

Production Imports TY Imports Exports TY Exports Feed Dom.

Consumption

Domestic

Consumption

Ending

Stocks

Wheat

16,06534,2876,19631,51832,0014,7854,71058,105nr318,345 2013/14

20,50131,5303,25422,75223,2493,9874,06855,147nr318,771 2014/15

23,43333,1774,89923,00023,1333,3503,40255,840nr319,058 2015/16

Corn

31,292292,965128,02350,68448,783727909351,272nr1035,390 2013/14

43,977301,851135,06146,80047,359800804361,091nr1133,644 2014/15

39,657302,401133,99147,00046,992750762344,311nr1132,644 2015/16

Sorghum

8644,1272,3515,7175,362329,966nr42,665 2013/14

4682,4292,0439,2008,96581010,988nr42,590 2014/15

1,0663,0482,66711,00010,9230014,569nr53,094 2015/16

Barley

1,7914,7751,4403363115224084,719nr41,230 2013/14

1,7114,2349383003124505133,953nr41,011 2014/15

2,0654,4201,0893003275004354,666nr41,258 2015/16

Oats

3592,7571,69429231,8661,674938nr2408 2013/14

7802,4241,30725261,7501,8521,019nr2419 2014/15

8602,8281,71030291,6001,6371,300nr3516 2015/16

Rye

742418467204234194nr2113 2013/14

1540616456225237183nr2104 2014/15

5046722156200216292nr2146 2015/16

Rice, Milled

1,0253,977nr2,9983,0057557346,1178,6159999 2013/14

1,5524,117nr3,3503,2078007837,06810,02681,181 2014/15

1,2643,981nr3,2503,0808208105,9638,51981,040 2015/16

Notes: Wheat Trade Year (TY) statistics are on July/June years. Barley, corn, sorghum, rye and oats Trade Year (TY)

statistics are on Oct/Sept years. Rice Trade Year (TY) statistics are for the subsequent calendar year; 'Imports' and

'Exports' columns contain data on the local marketing year: wheat, barley, oats and rye are June/May; corn and

sorghum are Sept/Aug; rice is Aug/July.


Total Wheat and Coarse Grains: Supply and Demand

Millions of Metric Tons/Hectares

Area

Harvested

Yield Productio

n

TY

Exports

Feed

Dom.

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks


1,347.9 469.21,299.4645.6174.72.4565.2 1986/87

1,285.9 423.11,329.8656.5202.22.4544.3 1987/88

1,218.1 339.31,302.0619.4203.32.2541.9 1988/89

1,327.4 320.51,346.2644.4208.92.4548.2 1989/90

1,417.6 368.41,369.8669.7190.12.6545.7 1990/91

1,355.7 357.91,366.1653.4207.52.5543.3 1991/92

1,431.7 398.41,388.4664.1205.22.6545.9 1992/93

1,356.6 365.81,389.2657.0188.22.5536.1 1993/94

1,392.8 363.01,395.6670.3200.12.6534.1 1994/95

1,338.8 320.01,381.8641.6187.52.5527.2 1995/96

1,490.5 368.51,442.0674.4198.32.7546.0 1996/97

1,491.6 416.01,444.1685.4190.32.8535.3 1997/98

1,481.8 448.91,448.9685.1198.72.8520.4 1998/99

1,465.4 444.01,469.8690.1214.02.9506.2 1999/00

1,447.4 418.81,472.6700.4204.92.8509.4 2000/01

1,481.2 403.31,496.6713.6208.32.9511.9 2001/02

1,444.6 341.61,506.3711.6209.22.9502.6 2002/03

1,472.4 278.71,535.4717.7205.82.9510.8 2003/04

1,642.8 335.61,585.9755.9214.43.2514.1 2004/05

1,599.8 318.41,617.0757.2222.53.1516.3 2005/06

1,585.1 273.71,629.9748.6229.83.1517.7 2006/07

1,692.7 291.91,674.4762.1244.73.2533.8 2007/08

1,791.7 361.41,722.2773.6253.63.3538.7 2008/09

1,803.8 398.91,766.3780.1254.13.4532.8 2009/10

1,748.5 364.11,783.2772.4250.13.3522.5 2010/11

1,853.0 364.71,852.4805.6287.13.4538.2 2011/12

1,796.1 346.01,814.9807.5279.43.4532.8 2012/13

1,996.2 405.81,936.4863.9327.03.7542.3 2013/14

2,022.9 443.31,985.4897.5333.53.7545.9 2014/15

2,000.0 451.41,992.0906.6330.03.7546.0 2015/16

Notes: Wheat and coarse grains trade data are on July/June years through 1975/76. From 1976/77 to

the present, coarse grains data are on an Oct/Sept trade year.


World Wheat and Coarse Grains: Supply and Demand


Area

Harvested

Yield Productio

n

TY

Exports

Feed

Dom.

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Wheat

558.6 183.1552.6110.9101.72.5221.1 1993/94

523.1 164.5541.7102.8101.52.5213.4 1994/95

537.6 156.3545.896.799.22.5216.7 1995/96

581.4 165.0572.7101.1104.02.6227.1 1996/97

610.2 198.8576.4105.9104.52.7226.4 1997/98

590.5 210.4578.9109.2102.02.7219.2 1998/99

587.0 210.3587.1104.5111.92.8212.6 1999/00

583.3 206.6587.0111.1102.12.7215.6 2000/01

583.9 203.7586.8112.0107.92.7214.5 2001/02

569.7 169.3604.1116.1106.52.7213.4 2002/03

555.3 135.7588.9101.5103.52.7207.6 2003/04

626.8 156.4606.1110.4113.22.9215.8 2004/05

618.8 153.4621.8117.4114.12.8217.6 2005/06

596.7 133.6616.5112.8115.32.8212.3 2006/07

612.7 128.8617.5104.6116.02.8217.1 2007/08

683.6 169.1643.3124.3143.23.0224.2 2008/09

687.0 203.2652.9122.1135.33.0225.6 2009/10

649.9 199.1654.0116.7134.13.0216.8 2010/11

696.1 197.7697.5148.3153.83.2220.8 2011/12

658.7 177.2679.2138.2147.23.1215.8 2012/13

715.1 193.8698.5126.8162.43.3219.9 2013/14

725.5 212.1707.2132.9161.33.2223.4 2014/15

732.8 228.5716.4137.7160.53.3224.9 2015/16

Coarse Grains

798.0 182.7836.6546.186.52.5315.0 1993/94

869.7 198.5853.9567.698.62.7320.8 1994/95

801.2 163.7836.0544.988.32.6310.5 1995/96

909.0 203.4869.3573.394.32.9318.9 1996/97

881.4 217.1867.7579.585.82.9308.9 1997/98

891.3 238.5870.0575.996.73.0301.2 1998/99

878.5 233.7882.8585.6102.13.0293.7 1999/00

864.1 212.2885.6589.3102.82.9293.8 2000/01

897.3 199.6909.8601.6100.43.0297.4 2001/02

874.9 172.3902.2595.5102.73.0289.2 2002/03

917.1 143.0946.4616.1102.33.0303.1 2003/04

1,016.1 179.3979.8645.5101.23.4298.3 2004/05

981.0 165.0995.2639.8108.43.3298.7 2005/06

988.5 140.01,013.5635.8114.53.2305.4 2006/07

1,080.0 163.11,056.9657.5128.73.4316.7 2007/08

1,108.0 192.31,078.8649.3110.43.5314.5 2008/09

1,116.8 195.71,113.4658.0118.83.6307.2 2009/10

1,098.6 165.01,129.3655.7116.03.6305.7 2010/11

1,156.9 167.01,154.9657.3133.43.6317.4 2011/12

1,137.4 168.81,135.7669.3132.23.6317.0 2012/13

1,281.1 212.11,237.9737.1164.64.0322.5 2013/14

1,297.4 231.21,278.3764.6172.14.0322.5 2014/15

1,267.2 222.91,275.5768.8169.63.9321.2 2015/16

Notes: Wheat and coarse grains trade data are on July/June years through 1975/76. From 1976/77 to

the present, coarse grains data are on an Oct/Sept trade year.


World Corn and Barley: Supply and Demand


Area

Harvested

Yield Productio

n

TY

Exports

Feed

Dom.

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Corn

476.0 129.4509.3342.057.43.6130.8 1993/94

559.4 153.3535.5371.671.94.1135.2 1994/95

516.5 133.3536.6365.364.83.8135.0 1995/96

592.8 166.3559.8387.966.64.2141.5 1996/97

574.4 167.2573.5400.663.14.2136.2 1997/98

605.7 191.4581.5404.468.74.4138.9 1998/99

608.4 194.4605.3422.672.04.4138.9 1999/00

591.8 175.3610.9427.475.94.3137.1 2000/01

601.8 151.5625.6436.472.74.4137.3 2001/02

603.9 126.8628.6433.476.84.4137.5 2002/03

627.5 104.6649.7445.879.04.4141.7 2003/04

716.9 131.1690.4476.076.04.9145.4 2004/05

700.7 123.5708.3478.982.54.8145.4 2005/06

716.7 109.5730.8479.591.34.8150.4 2006/07

795.5 129.9775.0499.298.25.0160.4 2007/08

799.8 145.3784.4481.483.65.0158.7 2008/09

824.8 143.8826.3490.892.75.2158.4 2009/10

835.5 127.1852.3502.491.75.1164.6 2010/11

889.8 132.8884.1506.8103.75.2172.2 2011/12

870.3 137.9865.2518.7100.54.9177.8 2012/13

991.4 175.9953.5574.3130.25.5181.5 2013/14

1,008.7 196.0988.5599.7127.15.6178.8 2014/15

972.6 187.8980.8602.5127.75.5177.1 2015/16

Barley

169.0 34.9169.1123.818.82.373.2 1993/94

160.7 30.0165.6120.915.32.272.2 1994/95

141.2 20.5150.7107.813.42.166.4 1995/96

153.2 24.1149.5106.317.92.464.3 1996/97

153.9 32.2145.8104.112.82.463.8 1997/98

136.0 29.0139.399.517.82.456.6 1998/99

127.4 23.9132.594.017.82.452.1 1999/00

133.0 22.6134.394.616.32.552.9 2000/01

143.4 29.2136.895.517.22.655.7 2001/02

134.2 27.5135.894.716.32.454.8 2002/03

142.7 23.5146.8103.114.82.458.4 2003/04

152.1 33.1142.5100.017.02.657.5 2004/05

136.1 28.3140.997.317.42.555.3 2005/06

136.9 21.5143.798.414.62.456.4 2006/07

133.0 20.6134.091.118.52.455.9 2007/08

155.1 31.6144.0100.418.22.855.2 2008/09

151.1 37.4145.3101.417.32.854.4 2009/10

123.2 24.3136.391.315.22.647.2 2010/11

133.6 22.7135.291.721.42.749.4 2011/12

129.2 20.5131.488.722.12.650.1 2012/13

144.6 24.0141.197.123.92.950.7 2013/14

141.2 23.9141.295.129.82.849.9 2014/15

144.6 23.5145.095.825.32.949.6 2015/16

Notes: Coarse grains trade data are on July/June years through 1975/76. From 1976/77 to the present,

coarse grains data are on an Oct/Sept trade year.


World Rice: Supply and Demand


Area

Harvested

Yield Rough

Productio

Productio

n

TY

Exports

Domestic

Consumpti

Ending

Stocks

Rice, Milled

464.6 103.3310.412.9316.13.2144.8 1986/87

464.8 105.3313.111.4315.13.3141.4 1987/88

490.8 111.7325.714.0332.13.3146.6 1988/89

510.3 120.6336.311.7345.23.5147.8 1989/90

519.4 126.7345.312.3351.43.5147.0 1990/91

522.8 126.7353.214.4353.23.5147.5 1991/92

524.2 123.2357.514.9354.03.6146.5 1992/93

526.1 119.0358.916.6354.73.6145.3 1993/94

540.0 117.6365.520.8364.13.7147.3 1994/95

547.3 118.1368.319.7368.83.7148.4 1995/96

565.3 120.3379.218.9381.43.8150.1 1996/97

575.2 127.7380.027.6387.43.8151.7 1997/98

587.0 134.0388.724.8394.93.8153.1 1998/99

608.8 143.1400.322.8409.33.9155.9 1999/00

594.1 146.7395.624.3399.33.9152.4 2000/01

594.3 132.9413.327.9399.53.9151.3 2001/02

563.1 103.0408.127.6378.23.8146.9 2002/03

585.4 81.7413.827.3392.53.9149.3 2003/04

596.4 74.0408.528.9400.83.9151.8 2004/05

622.2 76.5415.429.0417.84.0153.9 2005/06

625.0 75.4421.231.8420.14.0154.5 2006/07

643.7 81.0428.129.5433.74.2154.9 2007/08

668.6 92.6437.729.4449.34.2158.1 2008/09

656.1 94.9438.431.8440.64.2155.6 2009/10

672.4 100.1445.336.5450.64.2158.4 2010/11

697.3 106.9461.039.9467.74.3160.5 2011/12

705.0 110.8468.939.5472.84.4158.7 2012/13

713.4 107.6481.643.3478.44.4161.7 2013/14

713.9 101.8484.642.5478.84.5160.1 2014/15

706.8 88.3487.542.0474.04.4159.2 2015/16

Notes: Stocks, exports and consumption are expressed on a milled basis in marketing years.


54

ENDNOTES TO GRAIN: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE

REGIONAL TABLES

North America: Canada, Mexico, the United States.

Central America: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama.

Caribbean: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Bermuda, British

Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French West Indies,

Grenada, Guadeloupe, Haiti, Jamaica and Dep, Leeward-Windward Islands, Martinique,

Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Puerto Rico, Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the

Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands, Virgin Islands of the U.S.

South America: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Falkland Islands (Islas

Malvinas), French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela.

EU: Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark,

Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta,

Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom.

Other Europe: Albania, Azores, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Former Yugoslavia, Gibraltar,

Iceland, Macedonia, Montenegro, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland.

Former Soviet Union: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,

Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan.

Middle East: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,

Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Yemen.

North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia.

Sub-Saharan Africa: all African countries except North Africa.

East Asia: China, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Macau, Mongolia,

Taiwan.

South Asia: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives.

Southeast Asia: Brunei, Burma, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore,

Thailand, Vietnam.

Oceania: Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea.


55

OTHER NOTES

Local Marketing Years (LMY): LMY refers to the 12-month period at the onset of the main

harvest, when the crop is marketed (i.e., consumed, traded, or stored). The year first listed begins

a country's LMY for that commodity (2015/16 starts in 2015); except for summer grains in

certain Southern Hemisphere countries and for rice in selected countries, where the second year

begins the LMY (2015/16 starts in 2016). Key exporter LMY’s are:

Wheat Corn Barley Sorghum

Argentina (Dec/Nov) Argentina (Mar/Feb) Australia (Nov/Oct) Argentina (Mar/Feb)

Australia (Oct/Sep) Brazil (Mar/Feb) Canada (Aug/Jul) Australia (Mar/Feb)

Canada (Aug/Jul) China (Oct/Sep) European Union (Jul/Jun) United States (Sep/Aug)

China (Jul/Jun) South Africa (May/Apr) Russia (Jul/Jun)

European Union (Jul/Jun) United States (Sep/Aug) Ukraine (Jul/Jun)

India (Apr/Mar) United States (Jun/May)

Kazakhstan (Jul/Jun)

Russia(Jul/Jun)

Turkey (Jun/May)

Ukraine (Jul/Jun)

United States (Jun/May)

For a complete list of local marketing years, please see the FAS website

(http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdAvailability.aspx).

Stocks: Unless otherwise stated, stock data are based on an aggregate of differing local

marketing years and should not be construed as representing world stock levels at a fixed point in

time.

Consumption: World totals for consumption reflect total utilization, including food, seed,

industrial, feed, and waste; as well as differences in local marketing year imports and local

marketing year exports. Consumption statistics for regions and individual countries, however,

reflect food, seed, industrial, feed, and waste only.

Trade: All PSD tables are balanced on the different local marketing years. All trade tables

contain Trade Year (TY) data which puts all countries on a uniform, 12-month period for

analytical comparisons: wheat is July/June; coarse grains, corn, barley, sorghum, oats, and rye

are Oct/Sept; and rice is calendar year.

EU Consolidation: The trade figures starting from 1999/00 represent the European Union

(Croatia plus the former EU-27) and exclude all intra-trade. For the years 1960/61 through

1998/99, figures are the EU-15 and also exclude all intra-trade. EU-15 member states' data for

grains are no longer maintained in the official USDA database. Data for the individual NMS-10,

plus Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia, exists only prior to 1999/00.

Statistics: (1) Wheat trade statistics include wheat, flour, and selected pasta products on a grain

equivalent basis. (2) Rice trade statistics include rough, brown, milled, and broken on a milled

equivalent basis. (3) Coarse grains statistics include corn, barley, sorghum, oats, rye, millet, and

mixed grains but exclude trade in barley malt, millet, and mixed grains.


http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdAvailability.aspx

56

Unaccounted: This term includes grain in transit, reporting discrepancies in some countries,

and trade to countries outside the USDA database.

The Global Commodity Analysis Division, Office of Global Analysis, Foreign Agricultural

Service, USDA, Washington, DC 20250, prepared this circular. Information is gathered from

official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, reports of U.S.

agricultural attachés and Foreign Service officers, office research, and related information.

Further information may be obtained by writing the Division or telephoning (202) 720-3448.

Note: The previous report in this series was Grain: World Markets and Trade September 2015.

For further details on world grain production, please see World Agricultural Production October

2015.

This circular is available in its entirety on the Internet via the Foreign Agricultural Service Home

Page. The address is: http://www.fas.usda.gov

Questions may be directed to the following staff:

Teresa McKeivier (202) 690-1151 [email protected] Wheat

Andrew Sowell (202) 720-0262 [email protected] Wheat

Yoonhee Macke (202) 690-4199 [email protected] Rice

Kyle Bonsu (202) 260-8370 [email protected] Rice

Rick O’Meara (202) 720-4933 [email protected] Coarse Grains

Lisa Bennett (202) 720-0929 [email protected] Coarse Grains

Barrett Bumpas (202) 692-0337 [email protected] Coarse Grains


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