UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005

Trends in International Migration George Groenewold, NiDi

1. Concepts and Definitions

2. Data sources and their shortcomings

3. Measurement of migration: Stocks and Flows

4. Trends in International Migration in the World and Europe

Population

Deaths

Births

Emigration

Immigration

Population change

Demographic Balance Equation

P(t+1)= P(t)+Births-Deaths+(Immigrants-Emigrants), or,

P(t+1)= P(t)+Natural Increase+Net Migration

1. Concepts and Definitions

Immigrant: someone living in a country other than where he/she was bornEmigrant: someone leaving his/her country of birth to go and live in another country

In-migrant: someone living in another place than where he/she was born (but within the same country)Out-migrant: someone leaving his/her place of birth to go and live in another place (but within the same country)

Internal migration

International migration

Net migration

Difference between the number of immigrants (or in-migrants) and the number of emigrants (or out-migrants)

• If net migration is positive, there are more immigrants than emigrants

• A negative net migration implies that more people are leaving than arriving

Migration rates and ratios• Out-migration (emigration) rate: percentage of population from place x

that now lives elsewhere

• In-migration (immigration) ratio: population living in place x, but born elsewhere, as a percentage of the total population living in place x

• Depending on research question, denominator may differ so that indicator may be either a rate or ratio

Recent migrant: someone whose place of residence at the time of the census differs from that 1, 5 years ago

Lifetime migrant: someone who at the time of the census lives away from his/her place of birth

Multiple migrant: someone whose place of residence is different at all three times: at birth, X-years ago, and at the census

Return migrant: someone who, at the time of the census, was living in the same place as at birth, but who was living in another place X-years ago

Refugee: A refugee is a person who ‘owing to a well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion, is outside the country of his nationality, and is unable to or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to avail himself of the protection of that country…’

(The 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees)

But….also persons granted refugee status by UNHCR, UN Relief and Welfare Agency (UNRWA), 1969 OAU Convention on African Refugees

Internally displaced person (IDP): Internally displaced persons are persons or groups of persons who have been forced or obliged to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular as a result of or in order to avoid the effects of armed conflict, situations of generalized violence, violations of human rights or natural or human-inflicted disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognized state border

2. Data sources and their shortcomings

Potential data sources for migration statistics:• Population censuses and population registers • Border statistics• Admission and stay registers for foreigners, including

refugees and asylum-seekers• Work permit statistics• General purpose surveys (GPS) • Specialised migration surveys

Typical shortcomings:• Completeness, definitions (comparability), quality • Limited depth and breadth of data • Data on situation of migrants prior to migration lacking • Data of relevant comparison groups lacking

Table 1: Number and distribution over time of using the census to determine the international migrant stock

3. Measurement of Migraton: Stocks, Flows, Trends

Stocks: who is a migrant?

• According to Place of Birth (POB)?

- life time migrants (legal+illegal residence status)

- no time reference, no policy handle

• According to Citizenship criterion?

- legal residence status

- indicator with policy handle

- multiple citizenship

• Number of migrants according to citizenship usually differs considerably from migrants according to POB

• Size and composition characteristics for monitoring social and economic integration

Table 2. Distribution of countries and areas according to the type of data used to identify stocks of international migrants

Africa Asia Europe L.Am. N.Am Oceania

Figure 1. Type of data used to estimate migration by region

Imputed

Citizensh.

Birthpl.

Flows (cross-tabulations)

- POR by POB

-life time migration moves only

-underestimation of total migration moves (intermediate destinations not recorded)

-not time-specific

- POR by POB by Duration of Residence

-migration cohorts: life time in-migrants by time of last arrival

- migration and development analysis

- POR by POR 1 or 5 years ago

-focus on recent arrivals

-UN recommends 5 years ago

-recall problem with fixed reference date

4. Trends in International Migration in the World and Europe

Suggested reference:International Organization for Migration (IOM) and UN. 2003. World Migration Report 2003. Geneva.

Figure 2. Growth of migrant stocks in less developed and more developed countries

Table 3. Estimates of (A) numbers of migrants (B)proportional distribution (C) proportion of female migrants in 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000

Table 3. (continued)

Table 3. (continued)

2000 2000(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

World 6,056,715 174,781 2.9 15,868 0 0.0 62,239 0.2 More developed regions 1,191,429 104,119 8.7 3,012 2,321 2.0 12,535 0.1 Less developed regions 4,865,286 70,662 1.5 12,857 -2,321 -0.5 49,704 0.7 Least developed countries 667,613 10,458 1.6 3,066 -306 -0.5 .. ..

Africa 793,627 16,277 2.1 3,627 -447 -0.6 8,755 1.6Asia 3,672,342 49,781 1.4 9,121 -1,311 -0.4 24,205 0.3Europe 727,304 56,100 7.7 2,310 769 1.1 11,854 0.1 Eastern Europe 304,172 24,812 8.2 41 124 0.4 .. .. Northern Europe 95,076 7,453 7.8 413 134 1.4 .. .. Southern Europe 144,935 4,999 3.5 578 229 1.6 .. .. Western Europe 183,121 18,836 10.3 1,277 282 1.6 .. ..Latin America and the Caribbean 518,809 5,944 1.1 38 -494 -1.0 17,131 0.8Central America 135,129 1,070 0.8 28 -347 -2.7 .. ..South America 345,738 3,803 1.1 9 -75 -0.2 .. ..Northern America 314,113 40,844 13.0 635 1,394 4.6 .. ..Oceania 30,521 5,835 19.1 69 90 3.0 293 0.1Australia/New Zealand 22,916 5,555 24.2 63 103 4.6 .. ..

2000

Number of refugees a/ (thousands)

Workers' remittances

Per cent of GDP

Total b/ (Millions of US

dollars)

1995-2000

Number (thousands)

Rate per 1,000 pop.

Net migration (average annual)

Country or areaNumber

(thousands)

Migrant stock

2000

Per cent of population

Lett

Total Population (thousands)

Table 4. World Population, International Migrants (stocks) and Refugees, Worker Remittances (Source: UN Population Division, 2002)

1990 2001 1990 2001 Year %Austria 5,9 9,4 7,4 11 2001 11Belgium 9,1 8,2 7,1 .. .. ..Czech Rep. .. 2 .. 2 .. ..Denmark 3,1 5 2,4 3,5 2001 6Finland 0,5 1,9 .. 1,7 2001 2,8France 6,3 .. 6,2 6,2 1990 10Germany 8,4 8,9 7,1 9,1 .. ..Greece .. 7 .. .. .. ..Hungary .. 1,1 .. 0,9 2001 3Ireland 2,3 3,9 2,6 4,6 2000 6,8Italy 1,4 2,4 1,3 3,8 .. ..Japan .. 1,4 .. 0,2 .. ..Korea .. 0,5 .. 0,6 .. ..Luxembourg 29,4 37,5 45,2 61,7 2001 33Netherlands 4,6 4,3 3,1 .. 2001 10,4Norway 3,4 4,1 2,3 4,9 2001 6,9Portugal 1,1 2,2 1 2 1991 4,6Slovak Rep. .. 0,5 .. 0,2 .. ..Spain 0,7 2,7 0,6 3,4 1991 2,2Sweden 5,6 5,3 5,4 5,1 2001 11,5Switzerland 16,3 19,7 18,9 18,1 1990 21,3UK 3.2 4.4 3.3 4.4 1999 7.5

Foreign citizens % Foreign workers % Foreign born

Table 5. Foreign citizens, workers, and foreign born in OECD countries in 1990 and 2001

Table 6. Origin: countries with largest number of refugees (thousands, year 2000)

Rank Country Refugees1 Afghanistan 3,810 2 Burundi 554 3 Iraq 530 4 Sudan 490 5 Angola 471 6 Bosnia and Herzegovina 450 7 Somalia 440 8 Congo, Dem. Rep. of 392 9 Viet Nam 353 10 Palestinian Territory 349 11 Eritrea 333

Table 7. Destination: asylum countries with largest number of refugees (thousands, year 2000)

Rank Country Refugees1 Pakistan 2,199 2 Iran 1,868 3 Germany 903 4 Tanzania 647 5 United States 516 6 Yugoslavia, FR 400 7 Dem. Rep. of Congo 362 8 Sudan 349 9 China 295 10 Zambia 284

1-10 Combined (65%) 7,824 World 12,030

Figure 3. Refugee populations in region of asylum, 1992-2001

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2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Num

ber

of r

efug

ees

(mil

lion

s)

Oceania

North America

Latin America

Europe

Asia

Africa

Figure 4. A brief history of international migration flows

Source:http://pstalker.com/migration/mg_map.htm#

Table 8. Net migration flows to European Union in 2000

Population Natural Net Total Population Natural Net Total 1.1.2000 increase migration increase 1.1.2001 increase migration increase

% % %(*1000)

EU-15 376,455.2 372.4 680.4 1,052.8 377,507.9 0.10 0.18 0.28

Belgium 10,239.1 10.9 12.1 23.1 10,262.2 0.11 0.12 0.23Denmark 5,330.0 9.0 10.1 19.2 5,349.2 0.17 0.19 0.36Germany 82,163.5 -76.2 105.3 29.1 82,192.6 -0.09 0.13 0.04Greece 10,542.8 -2.0 23.9 21.9 10,564.7 -0.02 0.23 0.21Spain 39,441.7 27.2 20.8 48.0 39,489.6 0.07 0.05 0.12France 59,225.7 240.6 55.0 295.6 59,521.3 0.41 0.09 0.50Ireland 3,776.6 23.1 20.0 43.1 3,819.7 0.61 0.53 1.14Italy 57,679.9 -17.2 181.3 164.1 57,844.0 -0.03 0.31 0.28Luxembourg 435.7 2.0 3.6 5.6 441.3 0.45 0.83 1.29Netherlands 15,864.0 66.1 53.1 119.2 15,983.1 0.42 0.33 0.75Austria 8,102.6 1.5 17.3 18.8 8,121.3 0.02 0.21 0.23Portugal 9,997.6 14.3 11.0 25.3 10,022.8 0.14 0.11 0.25Finland 5,171.3 7.4 2.4 9.8 5,181.1 0.14 0.05 0.19Sweden 8,861.4 -3.0 24.4 21.4 8,882.8 -0.03 0.28 0.24UnitedKingdom 59,623.4 68.7 140.0 208.7 59,832.1 0.12 0.23 0.35

Source: Eurostat Statistics in Focus, Population and social conditions, Theme 3 - 7/2002

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Common Wealth of Independent States (CIS)

• 1989, 9 independent countries1997, 27 independent countries (over 550 million people)

Between 1989-1997:• Fewer than expected moved out of region (2.5 million) • Over 9 million moved within or between new States• Voluntary (repatriants) and forced movements (refugees

and internally displaced persons (IDP)

• By 1997, 4.7 million repatriants in CIS• CEE/CIS increasingly transit-zones of international

migrants and refugees from Asia and Africa

• Problem: collection, compilation and dissemination of good quality migration data and statistics

Total world population: 6 billion

International migrants1: 175 million (2.9% of worldpopulation)

Refugees: 12 million

IDPs: 6.4 million

1) Living outside country of birth

Source: UN Statistics Division

To conclude, some key figures for year 2000