understanding the demand for surveyors - surveying.org.au€¦ · workforce gap • workforce...
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Understanding the Demand for
Surveyors
Phil Dingeldei
Chairman
Consulting Surveyors National
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Presentation Outline
• Why a demand study was necessary
• Who did the study
• How was it done
• Quantitative findings
• What we are doing about it
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So Why is Surveying Important?
• This topic is not just important to
the profession
• Also important to the wealth of
the nation
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• Built on a proud professional past to lay
the foundations of the nation’s future
• Underpin economic activity and drive
national wealth
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• Surveyors are a silent workhorse of the
Australian economy
• A small but strategic group of highly
skilled professional working on projects
critical to national development.
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• There is barely a hospital, school, road ,
railway, airport, dam, pipeline, utility
service, major building, mine or land
parcel that does not rely on the
contribution of surveyors.
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• CSN provided the only submission on behalf of
surveyors to the Federal Government’s Senate Inquiry
into the Skills Shortage in Engineering and Related
Disciplines in January 2012.
• On the strength of that submission, CSN was invited to
provide evidence to the inquiry. And in May 2012, a
representative group from CSN attended a meeting with
the Senate committee in parliament house, Canberra.
• We made a good impression and were quoted in the
Senate’s report.
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Federal Government Senate Inquiryskills shortage for engineering and related professionals
Senator
Bridget
McKenzie
Senator
Chris Black
Senator
Gavin
Marshall
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Consulting Surveyors National
in Canberra
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• On review of Hansard, it was evident that other
organisations had clear researched evidence of
their industry.
• We were only able to provide anecdotal
evidence
• To be taken seriously as a profession CSN felt
there was a need for good research to support
our statements.
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X
Y
Demand
Supply
eShortage0 Surplus
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• Only if supply falls short of equilibrium will there be a
shortage.
• No study that demonstrated that shortfall and if it did
exist, what was the dollar value of that shortage.
• Available research had been undertaken by either
academia or other groups that may have had a vested
interested in the results.
• CSN Board felt that it was important to employ a
completely independent body to undertake the
research.
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About BIS ShrapnelAssisting Strategic Planning
& Decision Making
Multi Client Reports
Engineering Construction
Mining and Heavy Industry
Mining
Maintenance
Road Construction
Road Maintenance
Road and Bridge Costs
Tailored Research
Cost Escalation
Industry Studies
IPO / Prospectus Reports
Demand Forecasting
Workforce Capability
Regional Outlooks
CBA / EIS
Briefings & Workshops
Strategic Planning & Sales
Specific Issues Workshops
Staff Industry Knowledge
Board Industry Briefings
Customer Industry Briefings
BIS Research Roundtables
BIS Boardroom Briefings
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Sincere Thanks
Surveyor’s Registration Board of Victoria
Surveyor General of New South Wales
Association of Consulting Surveyors Victoria
Institution of Surveyors Victoria
Association of Consulting Surveyors NSW
Institution of Surveyors New South Wales
NSW Country Surveyors Association
Institution of Surveyors - Murray Group
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Key Findings of the Study
• There are approx 8,400 Surveyors in Australia
• Only around 2,800 are registered / licensed
• There are also around 3,600 Spatial Scientists
• 2,600 other related professionals
• 14,600 total population.
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Key Findings of the Study• Workforce attrition through ageing (i.e. not inter-industry
transfers) will see this pop shrink to 11,300 persons by 2022.
• Existing surveyor numbers will fall from 8,400 to 6,400 during this time due to retirements and deaths.
• At the same time, increasing activity will see demand for the profession increase to a peak of 15,900 persons by 2019.
• In particular, there will be strong increases in demand for cadastral surveyors and technicians.
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Key Outcomes from the Study
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Workforce Gap(RHS)
Labour Demand (LHS)
Labour Supply(LHS)
Persons
Year Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS
Persons Total Skilled Labour - Australia
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• Study utilised and forecast surveying graduations from the following institutions
offering 4 year degrees (total of 109 graduates in 2012):
University of New South Wales
RMIT University
University of Southern Queensland
University of Newcastle
Curtin University
University of Tasmania
Queensland University of Technology
University of Melbourne
• Study also captured and forecast TAFE graduates in Geomatic Engineering with
advanced diploma or diploma qualifications as a proxy for technicians
• * Study did not examine immigration of labour, but qualitative surveys reveal this is
taking place and may assist in reducing measured shortages
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Key Outcomes from the Study
Net Capability Position - Australia
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Per Cent
22% of workforce gap not filled by new supply resulting in a capability
shortfall
New Supply meets 78% of workforce gap
As at June Source: BIS Shrapnel
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Workforce Gap• Workforce attrition plus rising demand exposes a ‘workforce gap’
which must be met by new hires if forecast levels of activity are to be achieved.
• Estimated gap will peak at around 3,500 persons by 2019.
• Education and training is vital to increase supply.
• But estimated only 1,500 new surveyors will come through the education system over the next decade, and around 600 technicians.
• A skills shortage effectively exists for the next 9 years.
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Study focused on surveying and geospatial profession. Divided profession into following skills
specialisations with their industry demand drivers:
Surveyors
Cadastral surveyors (3,330 persons) – House commencements
Construction surveyors (1,570) – Multi-residential & non-dwelling building
Surveyors doing engineering work(1,692) – Utilities & transport construction
Mining surveyors (1,340) – Mining construction and exploration
Other surveyors (446)
Spatial scientists (841)
Technicians
Surveying technicians (366)
Spatial technicians (92)
Other Professionals
Planners (120)
Engineers (155)
Environmental scientists (35)
Other (including architects) (30)
Workforce Classification
Total construction, other
sectoral drivers
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Demand Drivers & Outlook
Demand outlook based on existing BIS Shrapnel forecasts for key ‘end use’ industry sectors.
Forecasts drawn from the following BIS Shrapnel reports:
Long Term Forecasts 2012 to 2027 (Economics)
Building in Australia 2012 to 2027 (Building)
Long Term Work Done 2012 (Building)
Engineering Construction in Australia 2012 to 2027 (Utilities & Transport)
Mining and Heavy Industry Construction in Australia 2012 to 2027
Mining in Australia 2012 to 2027
In summary, while economic growth will weaken in the short to medium term, growth will be
sustained above 3% p.a. by offsetting construction and investment cycles.
In particular, while resources investment will weaken significantly, a substantial upswing is
expected in dwelling building, while non-dwelling building and transport investment will remain
at high levels. Substantial differences are expected at the state level.
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Demand Drivers & Outlook
Private House Commencements - Australia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Dwelling Commencements - Private Houses
Thousands
Year Ended June Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS
Forecast
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Dwelling Commencements - Private Houses
Thousands
Year Ended June Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS
Forecast
Demand Drivers & Outlook
Private House Commencements – New South Wales
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Dwelling Commencements - Private Houses
Thousands
Year Ended June Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS
Forecast
Demand Drivers & Outlook
Private House Commencements - Victoria
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Other Dwellings
Non-Dwelling Construction
$Million
Year Ended June Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS
Forecast
Demand Drivers & Outlook
Private Multi-Residential and Non-Dwelling Building - Australia
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0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
70000
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Utilities and Transport Engineering Construction
$Million
Year Ended June Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS
Forecast
Demand Drivers & Outlook
Utilities & Transport Construction - Australia
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0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Mining Exploration Investment
Mining and Heavy Industry Construction
$Million
Year Ended June Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS
Forecast
Demand Drivers & Outlook
Mining Construction and Exploration - Australia
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0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
200000
220000
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
Engineering Construction
Non-Dwelling Construction
Dwelling Construction
$Million
Year Ended June Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS
Forecast
Demand Drivers & Outlook
Total Construction by Sector - Australia
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2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Persons Persons
Year Source: BIS Shrapnel
Total Surveyors
Cadastral Surveyors
Demand Drivers & Outlook
Cadastral & Total Surveyor Demand - Australia
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Persons Persons
Year Source: BIS Shrapnel
Engineering Surveyors
Construction Surveyors
Other Surveyors
Mining Surveyors
Demand Drivers & Outlook
Other Surveyor Demand - Australia
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Supply Outlook & Workforce Gap
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Workforce Gap(RHS)
Labour Demand (LHS)
Labour Supply(LHS)
Persons
Year Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS
Persons Total Skilled Labour - Australia
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Supply Outlook & Workforce Gap
Registered Surveyors - Australia
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Workforce Gap(RHS)
Labour Demand (LHS)
Labour Supply(LHS)
Persons
Year Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS
Persons
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Key Outcomes from the Study
Total Skilled Labour – New South Wales
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Workforce Gap(RHS)
Labour Demand (LHS)
Labour Supply(LHS)
Persons
Year Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS
Persons
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Key Outcomes from the Study
Total Skilled Labour - Victoria
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Workforce Gap(RHS)
Labour Demand (LHS)
Labour Supply(LHS)
Persons
Year Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS
Persons
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Key Outcomes Summary
• Skills shortages = costs.
• In practice we will not ‘see’ a shortage.
• Rather, we will see labour demand fall back to meet the constrained
level of labour supply, implying foregone activity in ‘end use’ industry
sectors (‘opportunity cost’).
• In 2019 alone, an estimated
• A$30.4 billion in construction work and
• 14,570 private house commencements
• will be put at risk from surveyor skills shortages.
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Key Outcomes Summary.
• Marked regional differences revealed in the study.
• Victoria will experience a ‘skills surplus’ for the first half of
the coming decade as demand weakens faster than supply.
• New South Wales will experience a severe skills shortage
given simultaneous strong growth in housing and
infrastructure activity. This places growth at risk in New
South Wales
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Qualitative Research
How have surveying firms changed in the last
decade?
What were the drivers of change?
Are skills the only resource to consider?
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Qualitative Research
External environment => Internal environment
Business environment
Government legislation
Technology changes
Client expectations
Structural changes
Service provision
Skills requirements
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External EnvironmentChanging Business Environment
• In some areas like Orange in NSW, the impact of the GFC has been negligible.
• Work provided by the local mining works created strong growth in the area both in mining works and in housing activity.
“Throughout the 1980s there were two surveying firms in Orange now there are five. They are pretty much fully employed and we
often contract work out to each other.”
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External EnvironmentChanging Government Policy
government legislation has impacted decisively on surveyors activity especially in the areas of planning requirements.
“Twenty years ago you could almost do a Development Application (DA) on the back of an envelope but now the amount of reporting required for a
DA has made it too expensive for most of our smaller clients.”
“I recall doing an application on a 30 lot subdivision which was a 7 page submission. Now it would have to be a 70 to 100 page submission. That
adds a lot of additional cost”.
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External EnvironmentChanging Government Policy
For the smaller firm especially in regional areas work for
‘mum and dad’ subdivision has mostly dried up.
“It is harder and harder for the small private developers to take on the risk of development. We are in the corridor that had plenty of orchard
owners looking into developing their land into residential property. They would do it themselves in the past but now it is too expensive for
them and a developer will come in and buy 10 orchards and the surveyor will be working on a 400 acre job rather than lots of 40
acres.”
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External EnvironmentChanging Government Policy
Some firms have extended their planning services by employing planning graduates to do the work.
Others focused on infrastructure development and have walked away from doing any jobs that involve DAs altogether.
“We try to avoid town planning because these days the town planning laws are so complex that you need to be a town planning expert to deal with any town planning issues”
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External EnvironmentChanging Government Policy
• Opportunities to extend services with addition of planning expertise.
• Diversifying into service provision to a ‘one stop shop’ concept
“We have steadily added disciplines to the business including planning experience, home design, landscape and architecture more recently.”
“If we weren’t in engineering and project management we probably wouldn’t have a third of the work we now have.”
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External EnvironmentChanging Government Policy
• Work Health & Safety legislation has added costs to survey work.
• Industrial Relations legislation was not considered to be an issue.
“If you recruit a country kid who likes playing sport and treat them well, you don’t have any industrial relation problems. That’s probably one of the good things about the surveying profession. Most of the people who end up doing
surveying generally like fitting in.”
“I reckon we made this a good place to work. We do a lot of other things besides working here and that’s why people stay. We are pretty family based and I pretty proactive with the guys doing things like running and riding bikes
and that sort of thing”
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External EnvironmentChanging Client Expectations
Clients expectations have increased dramatically.
“Clients are expecting things can be done easily and don’t understand that you are not always working just on their work. We used to be able to say, “ok there will be a 5 day delay because of the amendments you want”, but now they ask “can you have it done by 12.00 pm today?”
• Need to choose clients carefully
• Need to build loyalty
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External EnvironmentSweeping Changes in Technology
• Instrumentation much more sophisticated.
• Much more expensive
• Reducing skill level for field work
• More office work to support new systems
“No matter how much technology advances there will still be a need for human highly skilled professionals who will create new ideas, good solutions and provide management skills for
those in the profession following in their footsteps.”
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Internal EnvironmentChanging Company Structures
• Personal characteristics and market perceptions
• Lack of control vs one stop shop concept
• Love of problem solving vs creating wealth
• Merger & acquisitions vs cultural change
“surveyors are not a homogeneous group. Their work orientation colours their expectations of the services
they provide and the structures they operate.”
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Internal Environment
skill requirements• All firms indicated recruiting problems
• Especially registered surveyors
• Teaching university programs
• Immigration from NZ
• Especially difficult in country areas
• Developing broad range of skills
• Management training
• Skills through acquisition
• Providing options
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What is to be done?
• Recognise that this is not just a surveying problem.
• This is a national problem with regional differences
• Monitoring the supply/demand balance critical
• Governments need to change funding models
• Universities need to change delivery models
• Surveyors need to learn business principles
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Surveyors
vital to national development
• The construction industry is a fickle master governed by many uncontrollable factors.
• Surveyors need to monitor carefully what is happening in the economy to understand the needs of its clients and be aware of how to reinvent themselves to those changing needs.
• It takes at least 8 years to fully train a surveyor so planning ahead is critical because
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Surveyors
vital to national development
Without surveyors
national development stops