Understanding Population Trends and Processes

WHAT HAPPENS WHEN INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS SETTLE? ETHNIC GROUP POPULATION TRENDS AND

PROJECTIONS FOR UK LOCAL AREAS UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS

Phil Rees, Paul Norman and Peter Boden (Leeds)

UPTAP Workshop 2008University of Leeds, 18-19 March 2008

Wednesday 19 March 1530-1600

ESRC Research Award RES-165-25-0032

Project Aims

– To project the ethnic populations of local areas in the UK over the next 50 years

– To develop estimates of the inputs to the projection for the current decade

Presentation Outline

– To explain the model design being developed (Phil Rees)– State space of model– Accounting framework– Model structure– Internal migration model

– Ethnic mortality estimation (Phil Rees)

– Ethnic fertility estimation (Paul Norman)

– New Migrant Databank (Pete Boden)

Source: Dunnell, K. (2007) The changing demographic picture of the UK: National Statistician’s annual article on the population. Population Trends 130, 9-21.

STATE SPACEZones (434) (O origins, D destinations)England 354 LAsWales 22 UAsScotland 32 CAsNorthern Ireland 26 DCsAges (102 period-cohorts) (A)Bto0, 0to1, 1to2, …, 99to100, 100+to101+ (102)Sexes (2) (S)Males, FemalesEthnic Groups (18) (E)15 from 2001 Census with

“White: Other White-CEE EU”“White: Other White-Other EU”“White: Other-Other”

Time intervals (flexible) (T)1981-1991-2001-2, … , 2005-6, 2006-7, …, 2050-51

COUNTRY POPULATION ACCOUNTS FOR EACH ETHNIC GROUPStandard period-cohort (w=x to x+1)

Age x+1 Destinations (state at end of time interval) Derived totals

Age x Country England Wales Scotland Northern

IrelandRest of World

Deaths/Non-survivors Totals

Internal out-migration totals Survivors

Number 1 2 3 4 ROrigins England 1 S11 M12 M13 M14 E1 D1 SP1 TOM1 S1

(state at start Wales 2 M21 S22 M23 M24 E2 D2 SP2 TOM2 S2

of interval) Scotland 3 M31 M32 S33 M34 E3 D3 SP3 TOM3 S3

Northern Ireland 4 M41 M42 M43 S44 E4 D4 SP4 TOM4 S4

Rest of World R I1 I2 I3 I4 0 0 I*

Totals FP1 FP2 FP3 FP4 E* D* T**

Internal in-migration totals TIM1 TIM2 TIM3 TIM4

To EnglandFrom Northern Ireland

White British

White Irish …

Chinese or other: other

Protestant M41p,wb M41

p,wi … M41p,co

Catholic M41c,wb M41

c,wi … M41c,co

Other M41o,wb M41

o,wi … M41o,co

Time

Survival probabilities and survivorship probabilities

Age

x

x+1

x+2

t t+1

lx

lx+1

Lx

Lx+1

sx

px

Population accounting framework for countries and local authorities

DESTINATIONS England Wales ScotlandNorthern Ireland Rest of world Deaths Totals

City of London and

Westminster … Isle of Wight

Isle of Anglesey/Ynys Môn …

Cardiff/Caerdydd Aberdeen City : West Lothian Derry City : Belfast Start Populations

ORIGINS Zone names Zones 1(1) … N(1) 1(2) … N(2) 1(3) … N(3) 1(4) … N(4) R DEngland City of London and Westminster 1(1) SS 1(1)1(1) … MS 1(1)N(1) MS 1(1)1(2) … MS 1(1)N(2) MS 1(1)1(3) … MS 1(1)N(3) MS 1(1)1(4) … MS 1(1)N(4) ES 1(1) D 1(1) SP 1(1)*(*)

: : : … : : ; : ; : : : :Isle of Wight N(1) MS N(1)1(1) … SS N(1)N(1) MS N(1)1(2) … MS N(1)N(2) MS N(1)1(3) … MS N(1)N(3) MS N(1)1(4) … MS N(1)N(4) ES N(1) D N(1) SP N(1)*(*)

Wales Isle of Anglesey/Ynys Môn 1(2) MS 1(2)1(1) … MS 1(2)N(1) SS 1(2)1(2) … MS 1(2)N(2) MS 1(2)1(3) … MS 1(2)N(3) MS 1(2)1(4) … MS 1(2)N(4) ES 1(2) D 1(2) SP 1(2)*(*)

: : : … : : … : : … : : … : : : :Cardiff/Caerdydd N(2) MS N(2)1(1) … MS N(2)N(1) MS N(2)1(2) … SS N(2)N(2) MS N(2)1(3) … MS N(2)N(3) MS N(2)1(4) … MS N(2)N(4) ES N(2) D N(2) SP N(2)*(*)

Scotland Aberdeen City 1(3) MS 1(3)1(1) … MS 1(3)N(1) MS 1(3)1(2) … MS 1(3)N(2) SS 1(3)1(3) … MS 1(3)N(3) MS 1(3)1(4) … MS 1(3)N(4) ES 1(3) D 1(3) SP 1(3)*(*)

: : : … : : … : : … : : … : : : :West Lothian N(3) MS N(3)1(1) … MS N(3)N(1) MS N(3)1(2) … MS N(3)N(2) MS N(3)1(3) … SS N(3)N(3) MS N(3)1(4) … MS N(3)N(4) ES N(3) D N(3) SP N(3)*(*)

Northern Ireland Derry City 1(4) MS 1(4)1(1) … MS 1(4)N(1) MS 1(4)1(2) … MS 1(4)N(2) MS 1(4)1(3) … MS 1(4)N(3) SS 1(4)1(4) … MS 1(4)N(4) ES 1(4) D 1(4) SP 1(4)*(*)

: : : … : : … : : … : : … : : : :Belfast N(4) MS N(4)1(1) … MS N(4)N(1) MS N(4)1(2) … MS N(4)N(2) MS N(4)1(3) … MS N(4)N(3) MS N(4)1(4) … SS N(4)N(4) ES N(4) D N(4) SP N(4)*(*)

Rest of world Immigrants R IS 1(1) … IS N(1) IS 1(2) … IS N(2) IS 1(3) … IS N(3) IS 1(4) … IS N(4) 0 0 IS *(*)

Totals Populations * FP *(*)1(1) FP *(*)N (1) FP *(*)1(2) FP *(*)N(2) FP *(*)1(3) … FP *(*)N(3) FP *(*)1(4) … FP *(*)N(4) ES * D * T *(*)*(*)

populations fertility mortality Internal migration

International migration

survival

emigration

migration conditional on

survival within UK

immigration

Mortality assumptions

Emigration assumptions

Internal migration assumptions or

model

Immigration assumptions

Projected deaths, survivors

Projected surviving emigrants

Projected surviving internal migrants

final populations

Projected surviving immigrants

Projected final populations and births

Fertility assumptions

births

Projection outputs

Initial database

scenarios

Internal migration model

Something between a rock (saturated)O432 D432 E18 S2 A102

and a hard place (independence) O432 + D432 + E18 + S2 +A102

such as

A102S2 + O432D432E7 + E18

age-sex + origin-age, origin-destination-broad ethnicity + detailed ethnicity

Ethnic mortality: proposed estimation method

1. LA life tables and LA SMRs for whole population

2. 2001 Census SIRS for whole population

3. Compute SMR = ac + bc SIR for c=England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland LAs

4. 2001 Census SIRs for ethnic groups for Las

5. 2001 ethnic SMRe = ac + bc SIRe

6. dea (1) = d*

a SMRe /100

7. dea (2) = de

a (1) × [D*a /Σe de

a (1)Pea ]

Fertility rates for the projection model: needs …

Information on past trends

• By all persons, estimate by ethnic group

A range of plausible assumptions

• Different fertility scenarios by ethnic group

Trends for all LAs in UKAll persons in Bradford & Leeds: 1982-2006

Bradford Leeds

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

<20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40+

AS

FR

s

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

<20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40+

AS

FR

s

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

<20 20-24 25-29 30-34

35-39 40+ TFR

AS

FR

s TF

Rs

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

<20 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39

40+ TFR

AS

FR

s TF

Rs

Trends for all LAs in UKEstimate by ethnic group?

Child : woman ratios & apportion TFRs

• 1991 & 2001 Censuses (but different ethnic groups)

‘Own child’ method: Coleman & Salt (2003)• Labour Force Survey

TF

Rs

Past trends for all LAs in UKEstimate by ethnic group?

Age of mother at first birth

• General Household Survey

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

15-19 20-24 25-29 39-34 35-39 40+

UK Eire Europe South Asia Africa-Carribean RoW

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

15-19 20-24 25-29 39-34 35-39 40+

UK Eire Europe South Asia Africa-Carribean RoW

% b

irths

by

age-

grou

p

% b

irths

by

age-

grou

p

1981 2001

Further evidence?

• Longitudinal Study for England & Wales / Scotland

International Migration

Context: Complexity

97.2m I nternational

arrivals

12m non-EEA

Visitors/in-transit

8.5m

Visitor switchers

Students294K

British68.2m

Dependents13k

Asylum cases

Rejected

Accepted

Work Permits>12mth: 42K<12mth: 40K

Migrant switchers

I llegalmigrants

Dependents42K

Refused

Other EEA

17.0m

Returning2.8m

Spouse orFiancé(e)

35k

Others given leave to

enter300k

Au Pairs6k

97.2m I nternational

arrivals

12m non-EEA

Visitors/in-transit

8.5m

Visitor switchers

Students294K

British68.2m

Dependents13k

Asylum cases

Rejected

Accepted

Work Permits>12mth: 42K<12mth: 40K

Migrant switchers

I llegalmigrants

Dependents42K

Refused

Other EEA

17.0m

Returning2.8m

Spouse orFiancé(e)

35k

Others given leave to

enter300k

Au Pairs6k

Context: Uncertainty

Visitors

Long-term migrants

3 months 12 months

Fre

qu

en

cy

Intended or Reported Length of Stay

Short-term

migrants

Context: Conceptual differences

Context: Alternative sources

Context: ONS developments

• Improving Migration and Population Statistics (IMPS) project

• NSQR of international migration

– improving both the estimation of total migration flows to and from the UK,

– improving the allocation of international migration to local areas.

• Short-term migration estimates

• Evaluation of alternative administrative sources

This Research Project: Objectives

• International Migration estimates for the new Ethnic Population projection model

• New Migrant Databank (NMD)

– alternative sources– local authority level– available, accessible data– integrated view– improved estimation (level & distribution)

This Research Project: Data Sources

• Census

• Total International Migration (TIM)• International Passenger Survey (IPS)

• National Insurance Number (NINo) statistics• Workers Registration Scheme (WRS)• GP Registrations (Flag 4)• Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)• National Pupil Database (NPD)

• Labour Force Survey (LFS)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

NIN

o R

eg

istr

atio

ns

(00

0)

Accession Other Europe Old Commonwealth

New Commonwealth Other

This Research Project: Progress

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Re

gis

tra

tion

s (0

00

)

NINo Regs of non-UK Nationals

GP registrations -Flag 4

SNPP 2004 -Immigration

SNPP 2004 -Emigration

MYE Immigration

MYE Emigration

CensusImmigration

HESA

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Re

gis

tra

tion

s (0

00

)

SNPP 2004 -Immigration

SNPP 2004 -Emigration

MYE Immigration

MYE Emigration

CensusImmigration

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Re

gis

tra

tion

s (0

00

)

CensusImmigration

Leeds

We have been working on/will work on:

• Model design/program writing

• Initial database/completion and harmonisation

• Ethnic mortality/full implementation

• New migrant database/integration and synthesis

• Ethnic fertility/use of GHS and LS

Work programme

End