understanding limitations in environmental models through … · 2019-01-25 · environmental...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through … · 2019-01-25 · Environmental Models through Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change Thorsten Wagener Civil](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022043019/5f3bc1cd6c4daf1ce6105845/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through
Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change
ThorstenWagenerCivil&EnvironmentalEngineering,PennState
Ins5tuteofHydrology,UniversityofFreiburg(Soon:CivilEngr.,UniversityofBristol)
1
![Page 2: Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through … · 2019-01-25 · Environmental Models through Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change Thorsten Wagener Civil](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022043019/5f3bc1cd6c4daf1ce6105845/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
There is an increasing need for hydrologic predictions in support of a
wide range of water resources services. These predictions need to be
available everywhere and represent past, current and potential future
conditions.
To achieve this, we need to ensure our models work for the right reasons, and
use available data optimally.
![Page 3: Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through … · 2019-01-25 · Environmental Models through Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change Thorsten Wagener Civil](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022043019/5f3bc1cd6c4daf1ce6105845/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Such predictions are required in the context of a changing world (for which models have to account)
3
Human footprint index analysis showing that over 80% of the land surface is impacted by human activity (Sanderson et al. 2002, BioScience)
[Wagener et al. 2010 WRR]
![Page 4: Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through … · 2019-01-25 · Environmental Models through Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change Thorsten Wagener Civil](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022043019/5f3bc1cd6c4daf1ce6105845/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
![Page 5: Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through … · 2019-01-25 · Environmental Models through Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change Thorsten Wagener Civil](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022043019/5f3bc1cd6c4daf1ce6105845/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Predic5ons/Projec5ons
How can we understand how and why models work?
5
Understandingmodelbehavioracrossenvironmentalgradients
Diagnos5cmodelevalua5on
Iden5fyingspa5allydistributedmodels
PUB&PUC
![Page 6: Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through … · 2019-01-25 · Environmental Models through Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change Thorsten Wagener Civil](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022043019/5f3bc1cd6c4daf1ce6105845/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
DIAGNOSTIC MODEL EVALUATION
6http://www.bytelove.com/images/uploads/Gadgets/linuxgear/x-ray-tux-sticker.jpg
![Page 7: Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through … · 2019-01-25 · Environmental Models through Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change Thorsten Wagener Civil](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022043019/5f3bc1cd6c4daf1ce6105845/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Most (all?) models require some degree of calibration to observed data
7 [Gupta, Wagener, Liu 2008 Hydrological Processes]
e.g.
![Page 8: Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through … · 2019-01-25 · Environmental Models through Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change Thorsten Wagener Civil](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022043019/5f3bc1cd6c4daf1ce6105845/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
The measure of closeness (objective function) extracts information about model performance
8 [Gupta, Wagener, Liu 2008 Hydrological Processes]
However, traditional statistical measures extract little information useful for diagnostic evaluation!
![Page 9: Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through … · 2019-01-25 · Environmental Models through Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change Thorsten Wagener Civil](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022043019/5f3bc1cd6c4daf1ce6105845/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Evaluation of environmental models has at least 3 dimensions
9 [Wagener 2003 Hydrological Processes]
Data Model
CORRECTION
Howcanweformalizethisprocessofdiagnos5c
evalua5onandinterac5velearning?
![Page 10: Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through … · 2019-01-25 · Environmental Models through Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change Thorsten Wagener Civil](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022043019/5f3bc1cd6c4daf1ce6105845/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
SignaturesofNaturalCatchments
SignaturesofHuman‐ImpactedCatchments
CatchmentSignatures
10 [Yilmaz et al. 2008 WRR; Wagener et al. 2007 Geography Compass]
Transmission
Precipita<
on&Ene
rgy
Hum
anAc<vi<es
Intercep<on,Infiltra<on,Percola<on,Preferen<alFlow
ControlV
olum
e
Vegeta<on,Channel,Lake,Bank,Snow,Deten<on,Groundwater,Reten<on
Par<<on
Storage
Evapora<on,Transpira<on,Streamflow,
Groundwater
Hillslope‐StreamConnec<vity
Nutrients,Sediment
Transport
Release
CatchmentFunc<ons
[1] We can use signatures to provide insight into how the system functions
FlowDura5onCurve
![Page 11: Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through … · 2019-01-25 · Environmental Models through Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change Thorsten Wagener Civil](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022043019/5f3bc1cd6c4daf1ce6105845/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Comparing signatures and understanding how the model produces them can be diagnostic…
11 [Gupta, Wagener, Liu 2008 Hydrological Processes]
…if we can assess whether the model reproduces the functional behavior of the system in a way consistent with our theory
![Page 12: Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through … · 2019-01-25 · Environmental Models through Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change Thorsten Wagener Civil](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022043019/5f3bc1cd6c4daf1ce6105845/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
[2] We can use sensitivity analysis to understand how the model produces these signatures (= realism)
12 [http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/01/Sensitivity_scheme.jpg]
Both sensitivity analysis and signatures form elements of a diagnostic model evaluation strategy
![Page 13: Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through … · 2019-01-25 · Environmental Models through Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change Thorsten Wagener Civil](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022043019/5f3bc1cd6c4daf1ce6105845/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
We found the global variance-based approach by Sobol to be robust and effective
13
We compared four different sensitivity analysis approaches. The perfect approach would result in all points falling on a line.
[Tang et al. 2007 Hydrology and Earth System Sciences]
![Page 14: Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through … · 2019-01-25 · Environmental Models through Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change Thorsten Wagener Civil](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022043019/5f3bc1cd6c4daf1ce6105845/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
UNDERSTANDING MODEL BEHAVIOR ACROSS ENVIRONMENTAL GRADIENTS
14
![Page 15: Understanding Limitations in Environmental Models through … · 2019-01-25 · Environmental Models through Diagnostic Analysis in the Context of Global Change Thorsten Wagener Civil](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022043019/5f3bc1cd6c4daf1ce6105845/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
The model evaluated is a popular lumped watershed model, i.e. the Sacramento model
15 [van Werkhoven et al. 2008 WRR]
Soil
Percola5on
Groundwater