Understanding China’s Growth: Past, Present, and Future

Author: Xiaodong Zhu

Lecturer: Fan Bao

The Past: Pre-modern Era

China was once a world economic and technological leader.

The peak of China’s premodern economic performance is in the

Song Dynasty ( circa 1200)

China lost its leadership position to Western Europe sometime

between 1500 and 1800

China actually fall behind during the Qing Dynasty ( 1644-1911)

The Past: Pre-reform periodIn 1978, China was one of the poorest countries in the world.

The real per capita GDP in China was only one-fortieth of the U.S.

level and one-tenth the Brazilian level.

The Present: The Economic ReformSince the reform, China’s real per capita GDP has grown at an

average rate exceeding 8 percent per year

China’s real per capita GDP is now almost one-fifth the U.S. level

and at the same level as Brazil.

Why so different

The Future of China’sEconomic GrowthWill China be able to continue its rapid growth?

When will China catch up the U.S.?

Thank you!

Questions?