understanding america’s ‘immigration crisis’ · 1902 1907 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942...
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Understanding America’s ‘Immigration Crisis’
Douglas S. Massey
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International AffairsPrinceton University
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Regional Origins of Undocumented Migrants
57%
24%
9%
6%4%
MexicoOther Latin AmericaAsiaEurope & CanadaAfrica & Other
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Percentage of Undocumented Migrants
56.8
7.13.5 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mex
ico
Salvad
or
Guate
mala
Canad
a
Haiti
Philipp
ines
Hondu
ras
Dom R
ep
Nicara
gua
Poland
Country
Per
cen
tag
e
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Rate of Mexican migration to the US in different categories
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1902 1907 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Year
Rat
e p
er 1
000
Legal Immigration Rate Apprehension Rate Contract Worker Rate Deportation Rate
Gentlemen'sAgreement
US EntersWWI
First USQuota Law
GreatDepression
BraceroProgramBegins
OperationWetback
Bracero Program EndsRestrictive Era Begins
IRCA Enacted
IRCA Legalization
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Rate of Mexican migration to the US in different categories
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1902 1907 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Year
Rat
e p
er 1
000
Legal Immigration Rate Apprehension Rate Contract Worker Rate Deportation Rate
Gentlemen'sAgreement
US EntersWWI
First USQuota Law
GreatDepression
BraceroProgramBegins
OperationWetback
Bracero Program EndsRestrictive Era Begins
IRCA Enacted
IRCA Legalization
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Six Eras of Mexican Migration
• Recruitment 1907-1919• Floodtide 1920-1929• Deportations 1930-1941• Bracero 1942-1964• Undocumented 1965-1985• Contradiction 1986-2007
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Two Critical Dates in New Era
• 1986– Under pressure from U.S. Mexico Joins GATT
• Opens Economy to Global Trade and Investment– U.S. Congress Passes IRCA
• Grants Legal Status to 2.3 Million Mexicans• Criminalizes Undocumented Hiring• Begins Militarization of Border
• 1994– Mexico and US Join Together in NAFTA
• Lowers barriers to cross-border movements of goods, capital, resources, information, services, and certain classes of people
– US Launches Operation Gatekeeper in San Diego• All-out Effort to Stop the Inflow of Mexican labor• Erects Steel Wall from Pacific Ocean to Sierra Madre Mountains
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Indicators of Cross-Border Economic Integration
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Val
ue
Rel
ativ
e to
198
6
Total Trade Business Visitors Intercompany Transferees Exchange Visitors
Mexico Joins GATTNAFTA Takes Effect
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Indicators of Border Enforcement 1980-2002
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002Year
Val
ue
Rel
ativ
e to
198
6
Border Patrol Officers Linewatch Hours Border Patrol Budget
IRCA Enacted
Operation GatekeeperLaunched in San Diego
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Costs of Contradiction
• Transforms Mexican Immigration from a Regional to a National Phenomenon
• Raises Death Rate Among Border Crossers• Lowers the Probability of Border Apprehension• Reduces Rate of Return Migration• Increases the Rate of Settlement• Increase Net Rate of Undocumented Migration• Shifts Composition from Workers to Families• Puts Downward Pressure on US Wages and
Undermines Working Conditions for US Workers
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Jorge DurandUniversity of Guadalajara
and
Douglas S. MasseyPrinceton University
http://mmp.opr.princeton.edu/
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Current MMP Sample
93 Binational CommunitiesSurveyed 1982-200215,992 Households
837 in U.S.Sample Yields Basic Data on:
19,850 U.S. Migrants12,089 Undocumented Migrants6,209 Complete Life Histories
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Proportion Going to New Crossing Points and Destinations
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f M
igra
nts
New Destination New Crossing
IRCA Enacted
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
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Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure, and unknown causes along border 1986-98
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Rat
e p
er 1
,000
En
trie
s
Operation Blockade Launched In El Paso
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Probability of Apprehension 1980-2001
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Pro
bab
ility
IRCA Enacted
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
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Average Cost of Hiring a Coyote
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Do
llars
IRCA Enacted
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
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Probability of First Undocumented Migration and Return 1980-2001
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
An
nu
al P
rob
abili
ty
Males Females Return
IRCA Enacted
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
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Number of Mexicans in the United States 1980-2002
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Nu
mb
er in
Th
ou
san
ds
IRCA Enacted
Operation BlockadeLaunched in El Paso
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Average Wages Earned by Mexican Migrants to US
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
12.00
13.00
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Ho
url
y W
age
Undocumented Documented
IRCA Passes
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Summary
• Strategy of Finessing Contradiction Through Border Militarization Has Not Worked
• On the Contrary,It Has Backfired:– Transformed a circular flow of workers going to 3
states into a settled population of families in 50 states– Doubled net undocumented migration to U.S.– Lowered probability of apprehension– Caused hundreds of needless deaths per year– Reduced wages of legal workers and citizens– All at great cost to taxpayers
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From Border Enforcement to Immigration Management
• New philosophy of immigration control– Rather than viewing Mexican immigration as a
pathological condition to be suppressed by police actions along the border
– See it as a natural outgrowth of economic integration in North America and work to manage in ways that benefit of all parties
• Take lesson from the European Union– Canada & U.S. should treat Mexico in same way that
Northern Europe when it brought Spain into the E.U.
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Figure 1. Openness of Spanish economy 1954-2004
0
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48
54
60
66
72
1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
Year
Op
enn
ess
Ind
ex
Franco Dies
Spain Enters EU
Spain Appliesfor Entry to EU
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Figure 2. Real GDP per capita in Spain and Northern Europe 1954-2004.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
24000
26000
28000
1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
Year
GD
P p
er C
apita
Spain Applies for EU Entry
Spain Enters EU
Northern Europe
Spain
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Figure 3. Spain's transition to EU membership: migration, income, and openness
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Ind
icat
or
rela
tive
to 1
986
Spain Enters EU
Openness
GDP Gap withNorthern Europe
Gross Emigration of Spaniards
Net Emigration of Spaniards
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Figure 4. Structural adjustrment funds transferred from EU to Spain 1986-1999
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Year
Mill
ion
s o
f U
S D
olla
rs
Regional Development Fund
Social Fund
Cohesion Fund
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Figure 5. Oppenness of Mexican versus Spanish economy 1954-2004.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002
Year
Op
enn
nes
s In
dex
Mexico Joins GATT
Mexico Joins NAFTA
Mexico
Spain
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Figure 8. Real GDP per capita in Canada and the United States versus Mexico
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Year
GD
P p
er C
apita
Canada andUnited States
Mexico
Mexico Joins GATT
MexicoEntersNAFTA
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Figure 9. Mexico's entry into NAFTA: migration, income, and openness
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Year
Val
ue
Rel
ativ
e to
198
6
GDP Gap
PermanentEmigration
Openness
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Figure 11. Openness of Polish versus Mexican economy 1970-2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Year
Op
enn
ess
Ind
ex
Mexico Joins GATT
CommunismEnds in Poland
Mexico Joins NAFTA
Poland JoinsEuropean Union
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Agenda for Reform
• Increase Quotas for Mexico and Canada
• Re-establish Guestworker Program– Visas to workers rather than employers
• Issue National ID to All Legal Workers• Structural Adjustment Fund Instead of Walls
• Legalize Undocumented Population– Amnesty for those who entered as minors– Guestworker visa for recent arrivals– Earned legalization for long-term residents