uncertanities in demand forecasting
DESCRIPTION
Project managementTRANSCRIPT
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UNCERTANITIES IN DEMAND FORECASTING
Data about past and present markets.
Lack of standardization
Few observations
Influence of abnormal factors
Methods of forecasting
Inability to handle unquantifiable factors
Unrealistic assumptions
Excessive data requirement
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UNCERTANITIES IN DEMAND FORECASTING
Environmental changes
Technological changes
Shift in government policy
Developments on the international scene
Discovery of new source of raw material
Vagaries of monsoon
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COPING WITH UNCERTAINTIES
Conduct analysis with data based on uniform and standard definitions.
Ignore the abnormal or out-of-ordinary observations.
Critically evaluate the assumptions
Adjust the projections.
Monitor the environment.
Consider likely alternative scenarios.
Conduct sensitivity analysis