uncertaintiesand risksin planning future gas …smart-cities-centre.org › wp-content › uploads...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS …smart-cities-centre.org › wp-content › uploads › Gas-Workshop... · 2017-04-25 · UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070815/5f0efedc7e708231d441f788/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Iva Ridjan Skov,
Assistant Professor
Department of Development and
Planning
Sustainable Energy Planning
Group
UNCERTAINTIES AND RISKS IN PLANNING
FUTURE GAS GRIDS AND STORAGES
![Page 2: UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS …smart-cities-centre.org › wp-content › uploads › Gas-Workshop... · 2017-04-25 · UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070815/5f0efedc7e708231d441f788/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
EU GOALS FOR DECARBONISATION
• Decarbonising the energy system istechnically and economically feasible
• In the long run, all scenarios that achievethe emissions reduction target arecheaper than the continuation of currentpolicies.
• Early infrastructure investments cost less.Immediately replacing old infrastructurewith low-carbon alternatives can avoidmore costly changes in the future.
• A European approach is expected toresult in lower costs and more secureenergy supplies when compared toindividual national schemes.
![Page 3: UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS …smart-cities-centre.org › wp-content › uploads › Gas-Workshop... · 2017-04-25 · UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070815/5f0efedc7e708231d441f788/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
EMISSION TRENDS
0,60
0,70
0,80
0,90
1,00
1,10
1,20
1,30
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1990=1
Energy Industries Industry Transport Residential Other Total
3
C O 2 e m i s s i o n s 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 1 2 * S o u r c e : E U t r a n s p o r t i n f i g u r e s – s t a t i s t i c a l p o c k e t b o o k 2 0 1 4
![Page 4: UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS …smart-cities-centre.org › wp-content › uploads › Gas-Workshop... · 2017-04-25 · UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070815/5f0efedc7e708231d441f788/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
EUROPE HAS PASSED THE POINT OF PEAK GAS CONSUMPTION…
Source: Eurostat
![Page 5: UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS …smart-cities-centre.org › wp-content › uploads › Gas-Workshop... · 2017-04-25 · UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070815/5f0efedc7e708231d441f788/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
Source: The Danish Energy Agency and Energinet.dk 2014.
PROJECTION OF GAS SUPPLIES FROM THE NORTH SEA 2015-2042
![Page 6: UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS …smart-cities-centre.org › wp-content › uploads › Gas-Workshop... · 2017-04-25 · UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070815/5f0efedc7e708231d441f788/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
NORD STREAM DEBATE
6
TOTAL FAILURE OF THE EU DECARBONISING GOALS!
![Page 7: UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS …smart-cities-centre.org › wp-content › uploads › Gas-Workshop... · 2017-04-25 · UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070815/5f0efedc7e708231d441f788/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
HEAT ROADMAP EUROPE
7
http://www.heatroadmap.eu/
![Page 8: UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS …smart-cities-centre.org › wp-content › uploads › Gas-Workshop... · 2017-04-25 · UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070815/5f0efedc7e708231d441f788/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
Gas Grid
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
BiogasBiogas
Gasified BiomassGasified Biomass
SyngasSyngas
GAS GRID VS. DH GRID
DH
Power PlantsPower Plants
IndustryIndustry
Waste Incin‐eration
Waste Incin‐eration
Biofuel PlantsBiofuel Plants
Hydrogen PlantsHydrogen Plants
Solar ThermalSolar
Thermal
Geo‐thermalGeo‐
thermal
Heat PumpsHeat Pumps
Electric BoilersElectric Boilers
H i g h q u a l i t y e n e r g y f o r a l o w q u a l i t y d e m a n d
L o w q u a l i t y e n e r g y f o r a l o w q u a l i t y d e m a n d
![Page 9: UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS …smart-cities-centre.org › wp-content › uploads › Gas-Workshop... · 2017-04-25 · UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070815/5f0efedc7e708231d441f788/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
DO WE NEED THE GAS INFRASTRUCTURE?
![Page 10: UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS …smart-cities-centre.org › wp-content › uploads › Gas-Workshop... · 2017-04-25 · UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070815/5f0efedc7e708231d441f788/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
WHICH GAS TYPES WE WILL USE?
10
Methane Biogas Syngas Hydrogen
Renewable gases for future energy system:
• Biogas from anaerobic digestion or upgraded with H2• Gases from biomass gasification• Power-to-gas technology
![Page 11: UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS …smart-cities-centre.org › wp-content › uploads › Gas-Workshop... · 2017-04-25 · UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070815/5f0efedc7e708231d441f788/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
WHICH CAN BE TRANSPORTED?
Hydrogen – max 15-20% in the gas gr ids, in DK only 2%
Syngas – explosive mixture cannot be transported, need dedicated network 11
Methane Biogas Syngas Hydrogen
![Page 12: UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS …smart-cities-centre.org › wp-content › uploads › Gas-Workshop... · 2017-04-25 · UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070815/5f0efedc7e708231d441f788/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Liquid fuelsMethane
POTENTIAL FOR USING THEM IN THE SYSTEM
12
MethaneBiogas Syngas
![Page 13: UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS …smart-cities-centre.org › wp-content › uploads › Gas-Workshop... · 2017-04-25 · UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070815/5f0efedc7e708231d441f788/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
CHALLENGES AND RISK
• Risk of lock-in in the existing technologies
• Methane as central fuel in the system
• Do we mind conversion losses from methane
to other fuels?
• Going l iquid cannot be avoided
• Rethinking the role of the gas network
13
![Page 14: UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS …smart-cities-centre.org › wp-content › uploads › Gas-Workshop... · 2017-04-25 · UNCERTAINTIESAND RISKSIN PLANNING FUTURE GAS](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022070815/5f0efedc7e708231d441f788/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Iva Ridjan Skov,
Assistant Professor
Department of Development and
Planning
Sustainable Energy Planning
Group
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION