ultrafast broadband: how to tackle europe's demand …...13 setting the stage: basic broadband...
TRANSCRIPT
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Ultrafast Broadband: how to tackle
Europe's demand problem?
Prof. Marc Bourreau
Joint Academic Director, CERRE
Professor, Telecom ParisTech
Richard Feasey
Research Fellow, CERRE
Lecturer, University College London
Prof. Steffen Hoernig
Associate Professor,
Nova School of Business & Economics
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Outline
I. Objectives and main assumptions
II. Setting the stage
III.Demand for ultrafast broadband
IV.Demand-side policies for the transition to ultrafast
broadband: our recommendations
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I – Objectives and assumptions
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The transition to ultrafast broadband
• Broadband as an engine for growth � the deployment of next-
generation access networks is a top priority for Europe
• To foster the diffusion of ultrafast broadband: supply-side and
demand-side policies
• The transition from basic broadband to ultrafast broadband:
incentivising the switch from an “old” to a “new” technology
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Our question
Which demand-side policies can speed up the transition from basic to
ultrafast broadband (UFB) in Europe?
Two steps:
• Understand consumers’ incentives to switch to UFB and the potential
barriers to transition that they face.
• In a list of possible demand-side policies, which ones could influence
(speed up) the transition to UFB?
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Main assumptions
• Context of the study: European targets for the transition to UFB
• Technology-neutrality (but focus on fixed technologies)
• Ex-ante and ex-post perspective: achieving both uptake and
coverage
• A transition with possible intermediary steps
• The transition to UFB is assumed to be socially desirable
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II – Setting the stage
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Setting the stage
• Our study first describes the diffusion of basic, fast and ultrafast
fixed broadband in Europe by 2016, in terms of coverage and uptake
• We use the EC definitions for broadband (BB) bandwidth
classes:
- Basic: below 30 Mbps
- Fast: at least 30 Mbps
- Ultrafast (UFB): at least 100 Mbps
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Ex post evaluationEx post evaluation
• Digital Agenda of 2010:
- 100% basic BB coverage by 2013
- 100% fast BB coverage by 2020
- 50% uptake (?!) of ultrafast BB by 2020
• Gigabit Connectivity Target of 2016 (at least 1Gbps, symmetric):
- 100% ultrafast BB coverage by 2025 (upgradable to Gigabit)
- By 2025, gigabit connectivity for all main socio-economic drivers such asschools, transport hubs and main providers of public services as well as digitallyintensive enterprises
12
Setting the stage: Targets
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Setting the stage: Basic Broadband
In the aggregate, basic BB coverage is on target and uptake is high
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 Mid 2015 Mid 2016
Total Rural
Fixed broadband coverage in the EU, 2011-2016
Source: IHS,VVA and Point Topic 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Households with a fixed broadband subscription at EU level (% of
households), 2007 - 2016*
Source: Eurostat (ICT usage in households and individuals)
Coverage Uptake
Source: EC Connectivity Report
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Ex post evaluation
Coverage is uniformly high Uptake is heterogeneous
14
Setting the stage: Basic Broadband
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
AT
BE
BG
HR
CY
CZ
DK
EE FI
FR
DE
EL
HU IE IT LT
LV
LU
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SK SI
ES
SE
UK
EU
28
Perc
en
tag
e o
f h
ou
seh
old
s
Fixed Broadband coverage in the EU 28
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Setting the stage: Fast Broadband
Fast BB coverage is approaching the 2020 target, uptake is catching up
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
End 2010 End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 Mid 2015 Mid 2016
Total Rural
Next Generation Access (NGA) broadband coverage in the EU,
2010-2016
Source: IHS,VVA and Point Topic 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Households with a fast broadband (at least 30Mbps) subscription,
2010 - 2016
Source: Communications Committee and Eurostat
Coverage Uptake
Next Generation Access includes VDSL, Cable Docsis 3.0 and FTTP. Source: EC Connectivity Report
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Ex post evaluation
Coverage varies between 40% -- 100% Uptake varies even more
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Setting the stage: Fast Broadband
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
AT
BE
BG
HR
CY
CZ
DK
EE FI
FR
DE
EL
HU IE IT LT
LV
LU
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SK SI
ES
SE
UK
EU
28
Perc
en
t o
f h
ou
seh
old
s
Fast broadband coverage in the EU 28 (at least 30 Mbps)
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Ex post evaluation
Fast BB: Take-up ratio (uptake / coverage) increases with coverage!
17
Setting the stage: Fast Broadband
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
AT
BE
BG
HR
CY
CZ
DK
EE FI
FR
DE
EL
HU IE IT LT
LV
LU
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SK SI
ES
SE
UK
EU
28
Perc
en
tag
e o
f h
ou
seh
old
s w
ith
fa
st
BB
co
vera
ge
Fast Broadband Take-up Ratio
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Setting the stage: Ultrafast Broadband
Ultrafast broadband: Coverage and Uptake still far behind 2020 targets
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
End 2011 End 2012 End 2013 End 2014 Mid 2015 Mid 2016
Total Rural
Fibre to the Premises (FTTP) coverage in the EU, 2011-2016
Source: IHS,VVA and Point Topic 0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Households with an ultrafast broadband (at least 100Mbps)
subscription, 2010 - 2016
Source: Communications Committee and Eurostat
Coverage Uptake
Source: EC Connectivity Report
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Setting the stage: Ultrafast Broadband
Ultrafast BB: Coverage and Uptake still far behind targets. Attention: UFB is more than just FTTP!
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Households with an ultrafast broadband (at least 100Mbps)
subscription, 2010 - 2016
Source: Communications Committee and Eurostat
UptakeSource: EC Connectivity Report
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
AT
BE
BG
HR
CY
CZ
DK
EE FI
FR
DE
EL
HU IE IT LT
LV
LU
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SK SI
ES
SE
UK
EU
28
% o
fH
ou
seh
old
s
FTTP coverage in the EU 28
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
AT
BE
BG
HR
CY
CZ
DK
EE FI
FR
DE
EL
HU IE IT LT
LV
LU
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SK SI
ES
SE
UK
EU
28
% o
fH
ou
seh
old
s
Ultrafast broadband coverage in the EU 28 (at least 100 Mbps)
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Ex post evaluation
Coverage varies between 0% - 100% Uptake remains low in most countries
20
Setting the stage: Ultrafast Broadband
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
AT
BE
BG
HR
CY
CZ
DK
EE FI
FR
DE
EL
HU IE IT LT
LV
LU
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SK SI
ES
SE
UK
EU
28
Perc
en
tag
e o
f h
ou
seh
old
s
Ultrafast broadband coverage in the EU 28 (at least 100 Mbps)
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Ex post evaluation
Ultrafast BB: Take-up ratio not (yet?) related with coverage
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Setting the stage: Ultrafast Broadband
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
AT
BE
BG
HR
CY
CZ
DK
EE FI
FR
DE
EL
HU IE IT LT
LV
LU
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SK SI
ES
SE
UK
EU
28
Perc
en
tag
e o
f h
ou
seh
old
s w
ith
ult
rafa
st
BB
co
vera
ge
Ultrafast Takeup Ratio (Takeup/Coverage)
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Ex post evaluationEx post evaluation
We can conclude the following:
• Full coverage and uptake for (at least) basic broadband has been achieved
• Fast (at least) broadband coverage is growing, and uptake follows coverage
- That is, as the coverage expands, the share of covered households taking up fast (or better) broadband increases as well
• Ultrafast broadband coverage is still low, and uptake is little related to coverage
- The heterogeneity between countries is very large
- Drivers of demand cannot be exclusively on the supply side
- Focus needs to shift towards considering uptake22
Setting the stage: Main Message
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III – Demand for ultrafast broadband
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Demand for UFB
• Question: what is the demand for UFB from those consumers who already use a
basic broadband connection?
• Consumer decision: consumers switch if additional perceived benefits from UFB
compared to basic broadband > additional perceived costs
• Understanding consumer migration to UFB:
a) Why do some consumers switch � drivers (benefits) of migration?
b) Why others don’t � barriers (costs) to migration?
• Conclusions drawn from a review of academic empirical studies
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Drivers of migration: A demand for speed
• Engineering approach: is there a need for speed?
• Example of Kenny and Broughton (2013)’s study for the UK: by 2023, the top 1%
high-usage households will need a bandwidth of 35-39 Mbps � no need for speed
• Economic approach: is there a willingness-to-pay (WTP) for speed?
• Source of WTP for speed: higher speeds allow to save time
• Empirical evidence of WTP for speed: WTP of ≈ €1-2 for +1 Mbps
• Indirect evidence from operators’ pricing strategies: operators do charge for higher
speed
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The role of bandwidth-intensive applications
• Bandwidth-demanding applications may play a role in the transition to UFB
• Television and VoD played a role in the transition to UFB in Japan in the 2000s
• TV and OTT TV services (like Netflix) may play the same role in Europe for the
transition to UFB
• Interplay between speed improvements of broadband networks and quality of
online services
• Higher number of UFB users � more bandwidth-demanding apps � more users…
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Barriers to migration: Switching costs
• Switching costs represent a significant barrier to migration to UFB, and in
particular technical switching costs
• Even if they perceive a higher utility from UFB, consumers can stick to the
legacy network if switching costs are too high
• Consumers may overestimate (technical) switching costs if they lack
appropriate information about the switching process
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Too low perceived benefits
• UFB has experience good characteristics: consumers may not anticipate
well the benefits of UFB before experiencing it
• May lead to excess inertia
• Experiencing UFB outside of home (at the office, at school) may help
alleviate this problem
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Summing-up
1) Drivers of migration to UFB
o Utility from higher speed
o Utility from bandwidth-intensive applications
2) Barriers to migration to UFB
o Perceived technical switching costs
o Too low perceived benefits (UFB as an experience good)
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IV – Demand-side policies for the
transition to UFB: our recommendations
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Ex post evaluationEx post evaluation
• Wider socio-economic factors (education, income, children) play avery important role in broadband adoption
• Wider socio-economic change in Europe beyond the scope of this study
• Policies to promote basic broadband adoption involve:
• Indirect/derived demand programmes (devices, e-Government)
• ‘Onboarding’ at home via children/schools or workplace
• Digital skills for targeted groups
Policies to promote basic broadband
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Ex post evaluationEx post evaluation
• Policymakers have been reluctant to
address barriers to adoption directly:
- Low WTP but no budget constraint HHs
- Recurring subsidy for HH with budget
constraints
Policies to promote basic broadband
Can’t pay and
won’t pay
Lowering costs is unlikely to
affect adoption rates amongst
this group
Can pay but
won’t pay
Likely represent the majority of
households in EU today
Can’t pay but
will pay
Require ongoing subsidy or
‘social tariff’
Can pay and
will pay
No basis for public
intervention
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Ex post evaluationEx post evaluation
• ‘Demand aggregation’ policies work – but how much is supply side?
• Direct subsidies to lower connection costs work – no UFB device to
subsidise
• Digital literacy and e-Government less effective – and increasingly so
Lessons from past policies
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Ex post evaluationEx post evaluation
• Set EU adoption as well as availability targets for 2025 (and
2020) at EU and national level
• Promote ‘onboarding’ via schools and workplace
Recommendations: getting connected
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Ex post evaluationEx post evaluation
• Promote collective switching to UFB by households (as demand side policy):
- Subsidise one-off inter-technology switching costs
- Align with provision of UFB to public institutions in area
- Consider:
• Impact on retail competition
• Cost minimisation/differentials
• Non-participating households
• Service delivery
Recommendations: getting connected
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Ex post evaluationEx post evaluation
• Reform regulation
- UFB adoption targets alongside roll out targets in State Aid arrangements, with
incentives to outperform
- Deemed consent from landlords
- Long term contracts for UFB connections (Art 98 EECC)
Recommendations
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Ex post evaluationEx post evaluation
• Improve information
- Regulate advertising of broadband performance claims
- Promote broadband performance disclosure for key household purchases
• Reduce uncertainty
- Consider timetable for copper switch off (and measures to facilitate)
Recommendations
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Ex post evaluationEx post evaluation
• Anticipate role for ‘social tariffs’ for UFB/broadband in long term, funded
by general taxation
• More research on drivers of UFB adoption including:
- UFB WTP by geography and socio-economic group
- Impact of switch over uncertainty on adoption
Recommendations – longer term
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All households
EC-wide UFB adoption targets
Lower costs of broadband deployment (duct sharing, business rates, etc.)
Advertising standards for broadband performance
Improve broadband performance information at key trigger points: house purchase, consumer electronics purchases
Landlords presumed to consent to UFB installations in properties unless they object on specified grounds
Revisit State Aid broadband guidelines and include adoption targets
Can’t pay and won’t pay
Experience UFB outside the home (schools, libraries) to improve willingness to
pay
Require UFB ‘social tariffs’ in the longer term
Can pay but won’t pay
Experience UFB outside the home (schools, libraries)
Collective switching programmes with financial incentives
Long term financing of new UFB connections
Consider timetable for copper switch over
Publish data to build confidence around switching
Can’t pay but will pay
Require UFB ‘social tariffs’ in the longer term
Can pay and will pay
No basis for public intervention