ulster bank ni pmi slidepack november 2015
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
Includes analysis of Global, Eurozone, UK, UK Regions, NI & Republic of Ireland economic performance by sector
November 2015 Survey Update
Issued 14th December 2015
Richard RamseyChief Economist Northern Ireland
Twitter @UB_Economics
![Page 2: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
PMI SurveysPurchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) are monthly surveys of private sector companies which provide an advance indication of what is happening in the private sector economy by tracking variables such as output, new orders, employment and prices across different sectors.
Index numbers are calculated from the percentages of respondents reporting an improvement, no change or decline on the previous month. These indices vary from 0 to 100 with readings of 50.0 signalling no change on the previous month. Readings above 50.0 signal an increase or improvement; readings below 50.0 signal a decline or deterioration. The greater the divergence from 50.0 the greater the rate of change (expansion or contraction). The indices are seasonally adjusted to take into consideration expected variations for the time of year, such as summer shutdowns or holidays.
< 50.0 = Contraction 50.0 = No Change > 50.0 = Expansion
Data at a sector level are more volatile and 3-month moving averages have been used to more accurately identify the broad trends.
![Page 3: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Global output rebounds to a 3-month high with improvements in manufacturing & services
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Composite PMIs for the US (Markit PMI not ISM), China, the Eurozone and the UK all improved in November
![Page 5: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Developed Markets continue to outperform Emerging Markets
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Emerging Markets PMI back above 50 but only just. India, which has escaped the slowdown thus far, wilts in November
![Page 7: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Chinese Composite PMI back above 50 for the first time in 4 months
![Page 8: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Australia’s services sector hits an 11-month low while manufacturing reaches a 25-month high
![Page 9: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
All economies bar France posted better composite PMIs in November relative to October
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EZ manufacturing & services sector growth rates increase but retail sales & construction activity still contracting
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The Eurozone composite PMI signals a loss of momentum in Q3 but some improvement in Q4
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The Republic of Ireland, Spain, the US & UK posted the fastest rates of service sector output growth in November
![Page 13: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Manufacturing activity picked-up in Japan & the EZ but the US ISM joined the Chinese PMI in contraction territory
![Page 14: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Developed Markets continue to outperform Emerging Markets in terms of manufacturing
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UK manufacturing output growth still ranks higher than most with RoI mid-table and NI struggling at the bottom
![Page 16: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
UK, NI and RoI firms all report a pick-up in their respective rates of business growth in November
![Page 17: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
PMI suggests growth in DFP’s private sector composite index during 2014 but recovery stalls in Q1-15 with a modest rebound in Q2 to Q4
![Page 18: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
2014 was the first year in 7 years that business activity, new orders, employment & export orders all expanded
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Output & new orders growth slow in Q4* relative to Q3 but export & employment growth accelerates
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NI firms post a pick-up in the pace of job creation, new orders growth and business activity
![Page 21: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
RoI & NI firms report a slowdown in new orders growth (albeit RoI growth rate remains very strong). UK posts a pick-up
![Page 22: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Backlogs of work continue to grow amongst RoI firms with levels of outstanding work for NI & UK firms falling
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Export orders flat in November following a period of growth
![Page 24: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
RoI & NI firms report a pick-up in the rates of job creation with NI firms hiring at their fastest rate in 14 months
![Page 25: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
PMI signalled a slowdown in jobs growth in H2-14 but employment growth has accelerated since then
![Page 26: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Inflationary pressures remain relatively subdued and output prices are falling again
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Regional Comparisons
![Page 28: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
All UK regions bar Scotland post output growth in November
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All UK regions bar Scotland posted growth in the 3 months to November with NI lagging behind the UK
![Page 30: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
The RoI reported the fastest rate of growth in business activity over the last 12 months & Scotland & NI the slowest
![Page 31: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
North East, Scotland & the North West post the weakest rates of job creation within the UK in November
![Page 32: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Scotland and the North East post the weakest rates of job creation within the UK over the last 3 months
![Page 33: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Scotland, the North East & NI posted the weakest rates of jobs growth over the last year with the RoI the strongest
![Page 34: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
SectoralComparisons
![Page 35: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
UK services firms reported a pick-up in output growth but manufacturing & construction reported slower growth
![Page 36: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
The UK’s growth rate in Q3 moderated in line with the PMI to 0.5% q/q. A similar growth rate is expected in Q4
![Page 37: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Output growth within manufacturing & services picks up in November while growth slows in construction sector
![Page 38: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Retail & construction posted stronger rates of growth in H2* than H1 while services held steady & manufacturing slowed
![Page 39: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
NI manufacturing output slowing fast with services & construction in particular posting a pick-up in output growth
![Page 40: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Jobs growth within the services & construction sectors accelerates while manufacturing industry is losing jobs
![Page 41: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
NI’s manufacturing firms have experienced a marked slowdown since mid-2015. Contraction in 2016?
![Page 42: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
RoI firms post a sharp slowdown in output growth with NI now signalling contraction. UK firms bucking the trend
![Page 43: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
NI firms report a marked divergence in manufacturing orders growth than their equivalents in the UK & RoI
![Page 44: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
All economies bar France & NI saw their PMIs improve in November. NI & Greece in contraction mode
![Page 45: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Input cost inflation for manufacturers remains subdued with output price deflation accelerating
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NI manufacturing firms now reporting job losses at their fastest pace in 2½ years. UK & RoI are still creating jobs
![Page 47: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
NI PMI signals moderation in jobs growth in H2-14 & Q1-15 following record high in Q2-14. Job losses apparent in Q4
![Page 48: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
NI services sector experiences a pick-up in output, orders and employment growth in November
![Page 49: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
All three economies report a pick up in the rate of growth in services output in November
![Page 50: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
The rate of growth in NI’s services sector is well below the pre-downturn long-term average
![Page 51: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
RoI firms still report very strong rates of new orders growth whilst growth amongst NI & UK firms lags behind
![Page 52: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
Input cost inflation remains relatively strong for services firms but a degree of pricing power remains
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All three economies report an acceleration in the rate of employment growth in the three months to November
![Page 54: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
Pace of job creation within services sector eased in H2-14 but has picked up and accelerated throughout 2015
![Page 55: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
NI retailers report a significant moderation in sales growth with job creation easing too & orders falling
![Page 56: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
NI retailers report output price deflation with output prices recently falling at their fastest rate since June 2009
![Page 57: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
NI’s construction firms reporting rising rates of output, new orders & employment growth
![Page 58: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
Input cost inflation remains subdued as local firms continue to enjoy pricing power
![Page 59: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
NI’s construction PMI posts jobs growth Q3-13 to Q4-15 with a dip in employment in Q3-15
![Page 60: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
UK & RoI firms reporting strong rates of output growth but growth rate is slowing. NI firms catching up
![Page 61: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
New orders growth remains steady in the UK & RoI with NI firms reporting a marked acceleration in new orders growth
![Page 62: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
UK firms post robust rates of growth in housing & commercial activity with civil engineering lagging behind
![Page 63: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
UK sub-contractors remain in short-supply with rates charged still rising
![Page 64: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
Optimism amongst UK construction firms remains high
![Page 65: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
Construction activity linked to civil engineering & housing eases in November with commercial activity improving
![Page 66: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
RoI’s construction industry still reporting a decrease in the availability of sub-contractors & rising rates of pay
![Page 67: Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack November 2015](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051520/58ee66601a28abcb798b4567/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
RoI construction firms still remain very optimistic about the year ahead
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Slide 68
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