uk casual dining market discussion document
TRANSCRIPT
Strategy
UK casual dining market Discussion document
Dec 2013
PwC
Dec 2013
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Key messages
• We believe long term sector fundamentals for the eating out market in the UK are positive
- There is a structural trend towards further eating out of the home, driven by demographic and consumer trend shifts
- The industry remains relatively un-penetrated by chains
• In the short term, the sector is being impacted by the consumer downturn, with restaurant/eating out spending a cyclical category
• Branded casual dining and food-to-go chains have outperformed the market, although performance has been mixed
• Comparing the UK and US eating out markets suggests that there is significant opportunity for the development of differentiated offerings at a number of different price points
- e.g. major eating out chains in the US span a wide range of price architectures whereas in the UK, most casual dining chains are clustered around a median price point of £10 per main course
• There have historically been three key drivers of returns for investors in the industry: like for like sales growth, roll out, and efficient operations
3
UK casual dining market
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PwC
Dec 2013
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The long term prospects for the eating out and casual dining markets are positive, with robust underlying demand and supply-side drivers
4
UK casual dining market
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Branded casual dining market
Demand
Socio-demographic Consumer /
Lifestyle
• A greater number and proportion of more affluent and cash-rich/time-poor ABC1s, who are more likely to eat out
• Greater proportion of women in work and single person households may drive future growth
• Eating out is influenced by the overall economic environment
• The economic outlook remains challenging, which will limit growth in eating out in 2013-14
Supply
Improved proposition
Number of outlets Macro-economic
trends
Historical Impact (07-12)
Forecast Impact (13-15)
• Eating out has become embedded in UK consumer behaviour. This has been a structural shift over the last c.20 years
• Competition for the leisure pound is strong, but eating out remains a popular and this is likely to continue
• The number of restaurants in the UK has been growing at c.1% p.a.
• Within this, casual branded chains have seen the highest growth of c.7% p.a. This is forecast to continue, at the expense of independent restaurants
• The growth in casual dining chains has driven an improvement in:
– Variety of cuisine available
– Consistency and quality of offerings
– The nature of informal propositions which cater to a wide range of eating out occasions
Source: Horizons, ONS, PwC Analysis
PwC
Dec 2013
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70.1
42.8
9.5
4.6 3.6
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Eating out Eating out(excluding
drinking out)
Restaurants Brandedrestaurants
Branded casualdining
£b
n (
no
min
al,
in
clu
din
g V
AT
)
UK eating out market sizing and segmentation, 2011
Eating &
drinking out
The branded casual dining segment of the overall eating out market is worth c.£4bn out of an overall market of c.£70bn
5
UK casual dining market
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Source: ONS, Horizons, PwC Analysis
Market segment Definition
Eating & drinking out c.£70bn
Source: ONS • UK consumer spending in “Restaurants &
Cafes” (including meals, alcohol, snacks and drinks sold by restaurants, pubs and cafes)
Eating out (excluding drinking out without food) c.£43bn
Source: Horizons • Value of food and beverages sold by UK
caterers (including restaurants, QSR, food served in pubs, hotels and other venues)
Eating out at restaurants
c.£10bn
Source: Horizons • Value of food and beverages sold in outlets
“which have table service and where the customer generally pays on departure”
Branded restaurants c.£5bn
Source: Horizons • As above but excluding independent
restaurants. Includes restaurant and pub restaurant chains
Branded casual dining restaurants c.£4bn (incl. VAT)
Source: PwC • Bottom-up aggregation of revenues of UK
casual dining chains; excludes pub restaurants
• Revenue reported is net of VAT so 20% VAT added to present on a comparable basis to other sources
ONS Horizons PwC Horizons Horizons
Excludes drinking out of the home without food
Excluding QSRs, hotels, food spend in wet led pubs and other catering*
Excluding independent restaurants
Excluding pub restaurants
* Other includes leisure, staff catering, healthcare, education and services
PwC
Dec 2013
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Within the UK eating out market, restaurants have taken share and proven relatively resilient during the downturn
6
UK casual dining market
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8.5 8.7 9.0 9.1 9.5
9.7 10.2 10.6 10.7 10.8
6.0 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.5
15 16
17 16 17
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
£b
n (
no
min
al)
Eating out spend by segment, 2007-2011
Other
Pubs
QSR
Restaurants 2.9%
2.6%
07-11 CAGR
2.9%
(2.3%)
2.1% Total
39.4 41.2
42.0 42.0 42.8
Food sales in wet-led pubs have declined, driven by declining drinking out in general
Quick service
restaurants
Note: Restaurants include pub restaurants (those generating over 50% of revenue from food); Pubs include eating out spend in wet-led pubs;
Other includes hotels, leisure, staff catering, healthcare, education & services
Source: Horizons
PwC
Dec 2013
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2,290
2,545
2,718
2,870
3,038
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
£m
(ex V
AT
)
Branded casual dining market value
11.1%
6.8%
5.6% 5.9%
1.7%
(2.7%)
4.2%
2.1%
(4%)
(2%)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2008 2009 2010 2011
Yo
Y c
ha
ng
e, %
Branded casual dining vs total eating out markets growth
Branded casual dining Eating out market
The branded casual dining market has outperformed overall eating out and grew at 7% p.a. in 2007-2011
7
UK casual dining market
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Source: Company accounts, Retail Locations Data, PwC analysis
Resilience compared to total eating out market
CAGR 07-11 7.3%
Note: numbers presented are ex VAT
PwC
Dec 2013
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The strong performance of the casual dining segment has been driven by both demand and supply side factors
8
UK casual dining market
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Note: * Consumers were asked “Excluding fast food outlets, which one of these most accurately describes how often you eat out?”
Source: Mintel Eating Out Habits Survey (December 2011; November 2007.), Eating Out Review July 2012
2% 8% 5%
17% 3%
18%
12%
24%
19%
18%
37%
10% 23%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1989 2011
Eating out behaviour,1989-2011
I don't eat out
Have eaten out but notin the last three months
At least once in the lastthree months
About once a month
About once a fortnight
About once a week
More than once a week
• Increasing frequency of eating out – a habit, not a special treat
• More reasons for eating out – brunch with friends, refuelling on a shopping trip; not just a three course meal
• Broadening of the choice offered by casual dining chains across cuisines and price points
• Greater availability of affordable restaurant offerings
• Improvements in the quality and consistency of the eating out experience driven by casual dining chains
• Continuing innovation – menus, loyalty programmes
Low frequency
High frequency
5%
6%
17%
18%
19%
23%
23%
24%
31%
34%
36%
51%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Other
For business
To avoid cooking/washing up
For national holidays/celebrations
When I need to 'refuel' while out and about
For something different to my normal meals
For a chance to get out of the house
To relax and unwind
As a regular treat
As part of a day out
To catch up with friends
For a special occasion/celebration
%
Reasons for eating out, April 2012
More casual
reasons to eat out
PwC
Dec 2013
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A key driver of growth in branded casual dining has been roll-out
9
UK casual dining market
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Source: Retail Locations, Press, Company accounts
No. of sites (Nov 12)
390 267 210 30 79 70 67 56 52 47 35 29
8
25
4 3
6 7
5 5
8
4 4 4
11
23
29
4
1
3
8
3
6 7
11
8
12 13
9
7
5
2
6
4
8 7
8 9
20
31
18
8 9
(3)
11
1
7
4
8
6
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Pizza Express Nando's Frankie &Benny's
Byron Wagamama Strada Carluccio's GBK Yo! Sushi Giraffe Côte Jamie's Italian
No
. o
f re
sta
ura
nts
Annual change in the number of UK restaurants, selected operators, year to Oct-09 to Nov-12
Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Nov-12
PwC
Dec 2013
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011E 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
£m
(ex. V
AT
)
Branded casual dining market, 2007-15F
We expect the branded casual dining market to grow at c.6.5% p.a. to 2015, primarily driven by expected roll-out
10
UK casual dining market
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Source: Retail Locations Data, company accounts, PwC analysis
Forecast
Forecast Methodology
Number of sites
• 2012 sites are as at November, based on Retail Locations data
• For 2013-15, we have considered the roll-out plans for the chains included in our market definition to estimate roll-out on a bottom-up basis
Sales per site
• We forecast sales per site growth based on Consensus Economics forecasts (as at November 2012), the expected growth in overall eating out and the historical performance of branded casual dining
- Branded casual dining LFLs have been c.0%-2% over the last three years (source: Coffer Peach Tracker)
CAGR
2007-11 2011-15F
7.3% 6.5% Market
value
Of which:
6.8% 5.2% Roll-out
0.5% 1.2% Sales
per site
YOY
growth: 11.1% 6.8% 5.6% 5.9% 5.0% 7.0% 6.2% 7.8%
PwC
Dec 2013
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The market remains fragmented, with chain restaurants representing less than 40% of outlets. However, this varies significantly by category
11
UK casual dining market
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Note: *Concept restaurants other than Pizza / Pasta, Pubs and Themed restaurants; includes Mexican / Tex-Mex / Caribbean and other specialist menus
European
Pub
Pizza/Pasta
Themed
Other Concept*
Other
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
UK restaurants by type, 2011
Independent outlets
Group outlets
Includes Oriental, Indian, in-site and roadside restaurants, with Oriental and Indian the largest restaurant
segments in the UK
Chains
PwC
Dec 2013
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There are a number of different models in the eating out market, differentiated by price point and length of stay / level of service
12
UK casual dining market
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Source: PwC Analysis
High
Low
Sp
en
d p
er
he
ad
Length of stay / Cover Turn Long Stay/ Low
Cover Turn Short stay / High
cover turn
McDonalds
Burger King
Las Iguanas
La Tasca
Giraffe
Café Rouge
Bella Italia
Old Orleans
Strada
Gourmet Burger Kitchen
Nando’s
TGI Friday’s
Carluccio’s Zizzi
Pizza Express
Brown’s
Yo Sushi
ASK Prezzo
Fast food is
traditionally
much less
expensive than
casual dining
Illustrative Eating Out Market Map: Casual dining, pubs and fast food
Wagamama
£5
£10
£20+
£15
JD Wetherspoon
Sizzling Pubs
Punch Taverns
Pubs positioned
between fast food and
casual dining price
points
Independent Gastro-pubs
Midmarket casual dining
chains and independents, as
well as high end gastro pubs,
offer propositions at under
£20 per head
Most desirable
Least desirable
KFC
Pizza Hut Fast casual dining
chains with price points
between casual dining and
fast food
Côte
Gaucho
Brasserie Blanc
Loch Fyne
Premium casual
dining chains
have emerged
offering dining
experiences closer
to fine dining at
higher price points
Byron
PwC
Dec 2013
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There are few casual dining operators with nationwide footprints, although some have widespread awareness despite relatively small portfolios
13
UK casual dining market
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Source: Company websites, Retail Locations (November 2012)
390
347
267
210
171
126 125 120
89 79
70 68 65 56 55 52 47 42 42 35 30 29
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Piz
za E
xpre
ss
Piz
za H
ut
Nando's
Fra
nkie
& B
enn
y's
Pre
zzo
Ziz
zi
Cafe
Rouge
AS
K
Be
lla Ita
lia
Wagam
am
a
Str
ada
Chiq
uitos
Carlu
ccio
's
GB
K
T.G
.I. F
rid
ay's
Yo
! S
ushi
Giraffe
La T
asca
Loch F
yne
Côte
Byro
n
Jam
ie's
Ita
lian
No
. o
f re
sta
ura
nts
Outlet numbers casual dining chains (Nov 2012)
PwC
Dec 2013
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Site economics and group profitability vary significantly across operators, driven by business model, operations and scale
14
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Note: All financials are FY12 excluding Brasserie Bar and Co. (Brasserie Blanc) which is FY11. as reported .Cote’s and Giraffe’s EBITDA margin excludes pre-opening costs
Source: Company accounts, PwC analysis
UK casual dining market
3,028
1,542 1,526 1,438 1,402 1,262
957 861 845 688
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jamie's Italian Cote Wagamama Carluccio's Brasserie Barand Co
TRG Tragus Giraffe Gondola Prezzo
Revenue per site, £'000
20.3% 18.2% 17.9% 17.6% 17.2%
14.1% 13.9%
11.3%
8.1% 6.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Cote Gondola TRG Prezzo Wagamama Jamie's Italian Tragus Carluccio's Giraffe Brasserie Barand Co
EBITDA margins (%)
PwC
Dec 2013
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To remove the slide title from your
TOCs, delete the ‘Divider’ text from
the divider control box and hit
Update.
Leading operators use a number of levers to drive LFL sales through increasing cover turn and spend per head
15
UK casual dining market
Use the divider control box below to
make the slide title appear in your
primary TOC and section TOCs.
Please follow these steps:
Type ‘Divider’ in the control box
provided below.
Click the Divider command on the
Smart ribbon.
Enter the text that you’d like to
appear in the TOCs and select a
divider level.
Click Update. The slide title should
now appear on all TOCs.
To remove the slide title from your
TOCs, delete the ‘Divider’ text from
the divider control box and hit
Update.
Number of Covers
Drivers of like for like revenue growth
Spend per head
Capacity utilisation
Attractiveness of Proposition
Capacity
Use of space
Mix Pricing
Table turn Marketing Ambience /
fascia Service
standards Menu / food
Menu architecture
Type of trade
Opening hours
Day part analysis
Menu offering
Special events
Special menus for specific occasions
Meal deals for specific occasions
Site refurbs
Events to drive ambience
Use of bars
Cuisine type
Broadened menu to cover additional meals
Staff incentives – e.g. bonus scheme
Training
Mystery shopping linked to bonus scheme
Premium section
Chef collaborations
Fixed price menus
Extended opening hours to include breakfast
LFL price growth
Use the divider control box below to
make the slide title appear in your
primary TOC and section TOCs.
Please follow these steps:
Type ‘Divider’ in the control box
provided below.
Click the Divider command on the
Smart ribbon.
Enter the text that you’d like to
appear in the TOCs and select a
divider level.
Click Update. The slide title should
now appear on all TOCs.
To remove the slide title from your
TOCs, delete the ‘Divider’ text from
the divider control box and hit
Update.
Use the divider control box below to
make the slide title appear in your
primary TOC and section TOCs.
Please follow these steps:
Type ‘Divider’ in the control box
provided below.
Click the Divider command on the
Smart ribbon.
Enter the text that you’d like to
appear in the TOCs and select a
divider level.
Click Update. The slide title should
now appear on all TOCs.
To remove the slide title from your
TOCs, delete the ‘Divider’ text from
the divider control box and hit
Update.
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