uimp peter szovics

8-9 September 2008 UIMP, Santander

Future skill needs in Europe

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Presented by

Peter Szovics

Cedefop



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Overview• Introduction:

– Cedefop and Skillsnet– Policy background– Skill needs – Rationale and objectives of forecasts

• Methodology: the framework and modules• Results: Europe’s changing skill needs

– Sectoral prospects– Occupations– Replacement needs– Implications for qualifications

• Summary and conclusions



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Cedefop’s role and objective(a) carrying out thorough applied research and comparative

analyses of VET issues, trends and challenges;

(b) providing an expert and independent European perspective, developing and encouraging European approaches, principles and tools to improve VET and achieve common aims;

(c) being a unique forum bringing together diverse VET interests of policy-makers, social partners, researchers and practitioners to encourage mutual learning and debate proposals for policy and research;

(d) raising awareness and understanding of how VET is evolving, its role in lifelong learning and its contribution to other policies.



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Cedefop’s medium term priorities 2009-2011

‘European VET policies, trends in skills and learning, VET’s impact and visibility’

(a) informing European VET policies;

(b) interpreting European trends in and challenges for skills, competences and learning;

(c) assessing VET’s benefits;

(d) raising the profile of VET.



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Cedefop’s activitiesObservation

Analysis

Sharing expertise

Evidence based policy making

Study visits

Conferences- “Agora”,

Seminars,Expert panels,

Supporting clusters

PublicationsEuropean Journal

of VETResearch and policy reportsCedefop info

Sector flashes

WWWCedefop web site,

ETV, virtual communities,

Infodoc

NetworksRefernet, TTNet,

Skillsnet, CEDRA,ERO

Statistics and indicators



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AnalysisPolicy

reporting

Research reporting

Statistics and Indicators

Guidenance

EknowVET

CEDRA ERO

Social partners

Skillsnet

TT net

Familiarization

EQF/ECVET

CQAN

Research and Policy Analysis

Enhanced cooperation in VET and LLL

RefernetVET

Financing

CEDEFO

P’s

ACTIVITIES



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Some facts and figures, 2008Human resources

128 staff 6 national experts; 38% male 62% female.

Budget around 17.6 m. Euros

Source: WP 2008



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Cedefop’s Skillsnet

• International network on early identification of skill needs

• Platform for dialogue and information exchange

• On-going projects

Skillsnet: www.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnet



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Sectoral workshops• Trends and skill needs in the tourism sector

2004• Identification of skill needs in nanotechnologies

2005• Trends and skill needs in innovative agri-food

and forestry-wood chains 2006• Future skill needs in the health care sector 2008• Future skill needs for the green economy 2008



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Employer’s surveys• explore possibilities of employers surveys as

an analytical tool which may help to reveal qualitative changes in the demand for skills, competences and qualifications;

• identify existing employers surveys in the EU Member States and at EU level;

• look for feasible ways to achieve a comprehensive and comparable analysis of skill requirements at company level



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Skill needs forecastsFuture skill needs in Europe. Focus on 2020

(2008) Future skill needs in Europe. Medium-term

forecast: key findings (2008) Medium-term forecast of skills supply in

Europe: (2008)Towards European skill needs forecasting

(2007)



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Policy background

• Council resolution New Skills for New Jobs 2007/C 290/01

• Integrated Guidelines for Growth and Jobs 2008-2010 Council resolution COM (2007) 803

• June 2008 The council (EPSCO) invited the Commission to report with its first assessment of the future skills requirements in Europe up to 2020

• Anticipating and matching labour market needs: New Skills for New Jobs



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TerminologyWhat does the term ‘skill’ stand for?Market failures for skillsSkill shortages - two dimension

- quantitative and qualitative Skill gap - qualitative mismatch, transitory natureSkill shortages (UK NSTF)

EXTERNAL RECRUITMENT PROBLEMS– Hard to Fill Vacancies (HtFVs)– Skill Shortage Vacancies (SSVs)

INTERNAL PROBLEMS– Skill Gaps



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Main challenges of labour markets

• Demographic change

• Technological progress

• Globalisation

• Educational upgrading



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What forecasts…can provide?

– systematic analysis of the implications of continuation of past trends and patterns of behaviour

– alternative scenarios based on alternative assumptions– basis for intelligent and informed debate and further

research

cannot provide?– precise predictions that can be used for detailed

manpower planning (not a crystal ball)– qualitative information on skills and competences



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Key forecasting approaches

• Quantitative, model based projections

• Ad hoc sectoral or occupational studies

• Surveys of employers or other groups

• Focus groups/round tables and other Delphi style methods, including setting up observatories



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European skills forecastingCedefop's Skillsnet pro-active approach

– comparable information Europe-wide– feasible & cost-effective

First stage: demand side (skill needs - jobs)

Second stage: supply side (available skills – people) and identification of possible imbalances

Next stages: further improvement of methods and data bases; additional research; joint European approach



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Medium-term forecast of occupational skill needsObjectives: • consistent pan-European skills projections using

comparable data• new methodological framework • systematic dialogue and discussion

BUT data issues and concerns



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Team effort

+ INDIVIDUAL COUNTRY EXPERTS (Skillsnet)



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Modular approach to skill needs forecasting Overview of the Framework

Module 1: Macroeconomic and sectoral scenarios

Module 2: Expansion demand by occupation

Module 3: Expansion demand by qualification

Module 4: Replacement demand



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Modular approach the FrameworkMulti-sectoral

macroeconomic model

Stock and expansion demand by occupation

Stock and expansion demand by

qualification

Replacement demand by

occupation/qualification

Job openings by occupation

Job openings by qualification



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Modelling sectoral employment

• Sectoral employment a function of:– gross output; labour costs; average hours worked;

energy prices and technical progress (mostly defined by country and sector)

• Specification: – short-term dynamics and move towards long-term

equilibrium

• Modelled independently for each country: • Key employment elasticities (27 country

average)



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Projected Sectoral change by country, 2006-2015: continued transition to a knowledge based, service economy

Change in Employment by Country, 2006-2015

BE CZ DK DE EE GR ES FR IE IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL NO AT PL PT CH SI SK FI SE GBEUR(27)

EU(25)

Primary & utilities

Manufacturing

ConstructionDistribution & transportBusiness & other servicesNon-marketed services

% increases 2006-2015> 2010 to 200 to 10-10 to 0< -10



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Alternative possible futures: exploring different scenarios

Scenario Economic growth and competitiveness

Social welfare and government

Technological change

Globalization and mobility

Demography

A: Baseline Base No change Medium Base Base (ageing population)

B: Optimistic

Higher Lower taxes and benefits

Higher Higher Higher working age population

C: Pessimistic

Lower Higher taxes and benefits

Lower Lower Higher life expectancy, even higher dependency



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Future trends at a pan-European level (EU-25+)

• by sector (up to 41 industries)• by occupation (up to 27 occupations)• by qualification (3 broad levels)• plus replacement demands

EU-25+ = EU-25 + Norway and Switzerland



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27

Past and likely future trends by sector (EU-25+) 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1996 97 98 99 2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Millions

Primary sector & utilities

Construction

Manufacturing

Business & other services

Non-marketed services

Distribution and transport

Forecast



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Past and likely future sectoralstructure (EU-25+) 65.5

70.6 73.4

26.723.8 22.4

7.8 5.6 4.2

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1996 2006 2015

Primary sectorand utilities

Manufacturing +construction

Services +distribution andtransport



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Past and likely future sectoralchange (EU-25+)

3.2

8.9

3.5

0.4

-0.5

-2.3

13.3

5.1

11.6

5.9

1.4

-2.9

-3.1

17.9

-5 0 5 10 15 20

Non-marketed services

Business and other services

Distribution and transport

Construction

Manufacturing

Primary sector and utilities

All industries

million jobs

1996-2006

2006-2015



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Past and likely future occupationalstructure(EU-25+)

8.6 10.9 11.8

29.9 25.6 22.9

26.025.1 24.1

34.9 37.8 40.6

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1996 2006 2015

High-skilled non-manual occupations

Low-skilled non-manual occupations

Skilled manualoccupations

Elementaryoccupations



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Past and likely future occupationalchange(EU-25+) 3.5

0.5

-1.4

-1.7

2.5

-1.3

4.7

3.8

2.7

18

6

0

-2

-2

4

-1

6

3

3

13.3

-5 0 5 10 15 20

All occupations

Elementary occupations

Plant and machine operators and assemblers

Craft and related trades workers

Skilled agricultural and fishery workers

Service workers and shop and market sales workers

Clerks

Technicians and associate professionals

Professionals

Legislators, senior officials and managers

1996-2006

2006-2015

million jobs



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Replacement

demand (EU-25+)

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Legislators, senior officials and managers

Professionals

Technicians and associate professionals

Clerks

Service workers, shop/market sales workers

Skilled agricultural and fishery workers

Craft and related trades workers

Plant and machine operators and assemblers


Expansiondemand

Replacementdemand

Totalrequirements



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Past and likely future qualificationtrends(EU-25+)

0

50

100

150

200

250

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Million jobs

High qualification

Medium qualification

Low qualification



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Past and likely future qualificationchange(EU-25+)

9.5

18

-8

13

13

12.4

13.3

-8.6

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

All qualifications

Low qualification


High qualification

1996-2006

2006-2015

million jobs



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Past and likely future qualificationstructure(EU-25+) 32.9

26.220.8

46.248.6

49.9

20.925.3 29.3

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1996 2006 2015

High qualification


Low qualification



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Qualification requirements increase in all occupations – also in elementary jobs

8.3

2.4

0.8

0.9

3.3

1.1

1.5

3.6

-0.4

-2.3

-1.0

-4.8

-5 0 5 10

High-skilled non-manualoccupations

Low-skilled non-manualoccupations

Skilled manualoccupations


High qualification


Low qualification

Net change 2006 - 2015

million jobs



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Key similarities and differences across countries• Many common trends:

– sectors, occupations, replacement needs, qualifications

• Some differences:– stage of economic development, different

industrial & occupational structures

► process of convergence



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Key results: summary

• Further sectoral shifts towards services

• Growing demand for highly and medium skilled workers, losses for low skilled

• Losses offset by replacement needs

• Increasing qualification requirements across all jobs but at the same time growing demand for elementary occupations



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Implications for policiesAdaptation of workforce and their skills to

new requirements and structural change retraining, active LM measures, up-skilling,…

Prevention of skill mismatch reducing drop-outs, guidance and counselling, social policies, migration, recognition of non&in-formal learning

►INVOLVEMENT OF STAKEHOLDERS

AND SOCIAL PARTNERS



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Achievements to date• consistent and comprehensive projections

for EU-25+

• valuable insights for policy makers and others

• sound foundation for further development

► ongoing process: need to improve data and methods



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Future prioritiesContinuing dialogue: with country experts

and stakeholders

Overcome data problems: policy support needed to refine data

Further refinement: the models/framework

Complementary research: forecast of skills supply and more detailed analysis of skill needs at enterprise and sectoral level



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Contact details for further information:

Manfred Tessaring, Alena Zukersteinova, Dunkel Torsten, Peter Szovics

[email protected]

Skillsnet: www.trainingvillage.gr/skillsnet

uimp peter szovics

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