Stem Cell Research: Status and Ethics

UFOs and Extraterrestrial Aliens: What are they?Richard Deem,Paradoxes Sunday School July 27, 20141 Yes, our teaching today is on UFOs and extraterrestrial aliens. How many of you have read Lights in the Sky and Little Green Men? The teaching today covers different territory, so it shouldnt be too repetitious. If you are listening online, you will want to download the slides. I will not be explaining each slide in detail, since you will be able to understand from the graphics. Were going to start with a short video excerpt. Real Dead Alien!

Alien autopsy. You have all seen this, right? I love the part when they open up the chest cavity and there are no ribs, just the heart sitting on top of all the muscles. Those aliens sure are different! 2Do Extraterrestrials Exist?Can they get here, if they exist?Dr. Ross has gone through the data on the probability of the existence of suitable planets to house intelligent life. I am not going to go through that data. However, what is relevant is whether aliens, if they exist, could actually travel to earth to visit us. 3The Drake EquationFrank Drake developed the Drake equation to estimate the number of advanced civilizations within the galaxy. The equation uses values such as the star formation rate, suitable stars, earth-like planets, evolution of life and intelligent beings. Some of these factors are well known and others are based mostly on speculation. 4Advanced Detectable Civilizations/GalaxyParameterOptimisticRealisticR*107fs0.020.01fp0.750.5nE0.010.00001fl1.00.00001fi0.00010.000001fc1.00.1L1,000,000,00010,000,000Total1500If one looks at the final values for the Drake equation, they vary widely among different estimates. Wikipedia gives an estimate of 10 advanced civilizations per galaxy. Jim Plaxco gives an estimate of 1. Others give estimates of thousands to millions. However, with an optimistic estimate of 150 civilizations in our galaxy, the average distance between civilizations is ~2,000 light years, which is a long way to go, even at the speed of light. 5Problems with Interstellar Space TravelWhy Star Trek and Stars Wars are stupidSo, the first question we are going to look at is if extraterrestrials exist, can they get to here from there? 6Problem #1: Forget the Asteroids! What About Small Pebbles?At relativistic speeds, even a collision with a particle of a few grams results in something close in energy to a nuclear bomb blast. Not good news for the space travelers.Frank DrakeRelentless Evolution: Great Debates Part V. 2002. Astrobiology Magazine.So, we know that running into an asteroid is bad. However, according to Frank Drake, running into even a very small object results in an energy release equivalent to a nuclear bomb blast. 7Energy from a One Gram Pebble

We use this equation to come to this conclusion. This is a graph of this equation, assuming a mass of 1 gram. Yes, at the speed of light, the amount of energy released upon impact with this pebble is the equivalent of a nuclear explosion, but confined to a space the size of this pebble. 8Problem #2: Electromagnetic Radiation

RadioMicrowaveInfraredVisibleUVX-ray-rayLong WavelengthLow EnergyShort WavelengthHigh EnergyOur second problem involves electromagnetic radiation. This is a pictogram of the electromagnetic spectrum and the relative wavelengths of each form of radiation. On the left are long wavelength, low energy radio waves, with a wavelength about the length of a football field. As we travel to the right, we eventually get to the visible portion of the spectrum. Radiation in the visible region has a wavelength in the nanometer range, with enough energy to drive photosynthesis. As we continue to the right, radiation becomes more energetic with shorter wavelengths. Ultraviolet light has enough energy to damage DNA. X-rays and gamma rays have wavelengths on atomic scales and are energetic enough to rip apart just about any organic molecule. Why do we need to know this? Lets say we have a light source and we are travelling toward it in a spaceship near the speed of light, how fast is light travelling toward us? Is it equal to our speed plus the speed of light? The speed of light is constant, which means that wavelengths of light reaching us is compressed to shorter wavelengths and higher energy. It is commonly known as a blue-shift. As we travel at 99% the speed of light, ultraviolet rays from astronomical objects are blue shifted into the x-ray range. As we approach the speed of light, we approach a point at which all forms of light waves get blue-shifted to gamma ray wavelengths. There is no practical way to shield a spaceship from these gamma rays, which means space travel will always be restricted to a percentage of the speed of light. 9Problem #3: Energy Required for Relativistic Travel SpeedsEnergy in all fossil fuels on earthOur third problem is the energy problem of accelerating a spaceship to near the speed of light. Here is the equation, which is a variation of E=mc2. Taking this equation, we can plot the amount of energy required to accelerate a spaceship the mass of the Space Shuttle. For 90% the speed of light, it would require 5 x 1022 joules of energy, which is more than the energy contained in all the fossil fuel deposits in the entire earth. In fact, if one had a 100% efficient fusion reactor, it would require twice the mass of spaceships weight in fuel just to get to that speed. What happens when we reach our destination? It takes just as much energy to decelerate our spaceship. 10Alcubierre Warp DriveWarp drive creates space in front of warp bubble to contractLarge negative energy requirementSteering problemsHawking radiationDeceleration problem

In 1994, theoretical physicist Miguel Alcubierre proposed a method for changing the geometry of space by creating a wave that would cause the fabric of space ahead of a spacecraft to contract and the space behind it to expand. In addition, the drive requires large amounts of the negative energy equivalent 1064 kg might be required to transport a small spaceship across the Milky Way galaxy. This energy equivalent is more than the total amount of matter in the universe. Jos Natrio argued that crew members could not control, steer or stop the ship because the ship could not send signals to the front of the bubble. Other physicists have calculated that Hawking radiation would be produced, which would destroy everything within the warp bubble. Upon deceleration, anything in front of the ship would be destroyed by production of energetic particles. 11UFO SightingsWhat are they?So, we know that alien civilizations, if they exist, are spaced at least 2,000 light years apart. We also know that travel between these civilizations will take tens to hundreds of thousands of years, since we cant travel near the speed of light. So, it seems unlikely that UFO sightings are real aliens. The vast majority of UFO sightings are natural phenomena that are misinterpreted by viewers. For example, two airline pilots flying in the northwest were constantly seeing UFOs. So, they decided to bring their video camera and document their next sighting. Sure enough, there was a string of UFOs flying below them. However, when they zoomed in, they could see that the UFOs were pelicans flying in formation. 12History of UFO SightingsOccasional, random sightings before 20th centuryFirst modern sighting in 1947

Prior to the 20th century, there were very few UFO sightings. The UFO era officially began on June 24, 1947, when pilot Kenneth Arnold saw a series of objects he described that, flew erratic, like a saucer if you skip it across the water. The Chicago Sun picked up the story citing the UFOs as flying saucers. 13Kenneth Arnold Sighting

Arnold reported his sighting to the air force, which was in charge of investigating UFO sightings. This picture is what he drew for the air force, showing the appearance of the UFO. However, when his 1952 book came out, they had turned in this. 14Roswell Flying Saucer

About two weeks later on July 8, near Roswell New Mexico, it was reported that a flying saucer had crashed in the desert. However, the saucer had been discovered by a rancher on June 14, nearly 2 weeks before Arnolds UFO sighting. The rancher didnt report the sighting until after Arnolds sighting. However, the story was forgotten until the 1970s when it was resurrected by UFO enthusiasts. At that point, the saucer had contained aliens (some alive and others dead, depending on the version). If you saw a crashed flying saucer with aliens in it, would you wait three weeks to report it? 15Roswell UFO Remains

The crash consisted of about 5 pounds of mostly aluminum, balsa wood and tapea weather balloon that was carrying a top secret payload for detecting nuclear explosions. 16

Anza Borrego SaucerThis is the famous Anza Borrego saucer that crashed in 2011. I actually PhotoshoppedI mean photographedthis one myself. 17

Another UFO CrashAnd this was the result of an another errant UFO flight that crashed into a local electronics store. It is amazing how badly they fly considering how advanced their technology is. 18German Saucer

This is a German saucer from WWII. 19

Air Force SaucersHere is the U.S. Air Forces attempt to make a saucer. It had major stability problems. 20

U.S. SaucerHere is another air force saucer. 21Real or Photoshopped?

Then there was this secret photo of experimental craft.22Crop CirclesMessages from Aliens?I remember when crop circles first began to appear in the 1980s. They were really simple initially, but became more and more complex over time. It seemed to me that whoever was making them was perfecting their methodology over time. Here are some of the better ones. 23

Crop CirclesPeople began to speculate that these crop circles were messages from alien beings. 24Characteristics of UFO Abductees87% exhibited fantasy-prone personalityHypnotic susceptibilityClaimed psychic abilityClaimed healing abilityClaimed telepathyOut-of-body experiencesBartholomew, R. E., et al. 1991. UFO Abductees and Contactees: Psychopathology or Fantasy Proneness? Professional Psychology: Research and Practice 22: 215-22.Several studies have been carried out, but researchers have never found any particular characteristic that defines people who see UFOs. However, those who claim to have been abducted by UFOs exhibit a fantasy-prone personality. Most of these experiences are only remembered under hypnosis. This book goes into UFO abductees and cults in extensive detail, so I am not going to cover it here. 25UFO Sightings: Mostly Drunk People in the West

The reason I got interested in the UFO topic was because I received an email from Ted Iskenderian about this article in The Atlantic. Its conclusion was that UFO sightings were the result of mostly drunk people in the West. How did they come to that conclusion? 26UFO Sightings by HourSleeping HoursWorking HoursDrinking HoursUFO sighting data from National UFO Reporting Center.The reason why they came up with the drinking idea is because of this plot of UFO sightings by hour. There arent many sightings during sleeping or working hours. The vast majority of these sighting occur between dinner and bed the so-called drinking hours. 27UFO Sightings Frequency by State

VTNHMARICTNJDEMDDC>5040-5030-4020-3010-20Adapted from Everything you need to know about UFOs. The Economist. June 28, 2014.

Image credit: WikipediaHere is a map of their breakdown of UFO sightings by state, with the darker colored states exhibiting the highest frequency of UFO sightings (expressed as number of sightings per 100,000 individuals). UFO sighting frequencies are higher in the West. However, there is also a higher frequency in the northeast. Looking at the map, there seemed to be a lower frequency of UFO sightings in the Bible-belt states. So maybe its a religious connection rather than a geographic one. So, maybe this sign is not too far off the mark. 28UFO Sightings as a Religious FunctionChristians have the power of the Spirit of God:for our gospel did not come to you in word only, but also in power and in the Holy Spirit and with full conviction (1 Thessalonians 1:5)Christians test the spirits:Beloved, do not believe every spirit, but test the spirits to see whether they are from God (1 John 4:1)Unbelievers do not have spiritual discernment:But a natural man does not accept the things of the Spirit of God, for they are foolishness to him; and he cannot understand them, because they are spiritually appraised. (1 Corinthians 2:14)So, my hypothesis is that UFO sightings are an attempt by demons to convince the unbelievers that UFOs are real and the evolved aliens live throughout the universe. Hence, there is no need for a Creator. Demons arent likely to attempt to persuade Christians, because they have the power of the Holy Spirit living in them. And Christians are told to test the spirits to see whether they are from God. However, unbelievers have no discernment of spiritual things, so they will be fooled into thinking that spiritual apparitions of UFOs are real. So, how can we test this hypothesis?29Rise of Lack of Religion and UFO SightingsUFO sighting data from National UFO Reporting Center.U.S. Population 1776 to Present from Google Fusion Table.Religious preference "none" from United States Religious Preferences 1972-2010, US General Social Survey.

The National UFO Reporting Center has been keeping track of UFO sightings since 1974. Much of the data presented here comes from this organization. If we look at UFO sightings over time, we see that there has been a dramatic increase in the number of UFO sightings since 1995. Also, during this time, there has been a rapid secularization of the United States, which parallels the increase in UFO sightings. However, at least part of this increase in sightings is probably due to the adoption of cell phones and computer technology that aids the reporting of UFO sightings. We need better data. 30Statistics 101and you thought calculus was hard!I am going to present some statistical correlations in the rest of this teaching time, so you need to have some background in statistics. How many of you have ever taken a course in statistics? 31Popular Atheist QuoteThere are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli This quote has been attributed to British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli from the 19th century who said, There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. The quote was popularized by Mark Twain. And it is a popular quote among atheists, when you confront them with any kind of statistics challenging their worldview. However, the truth is that all science relies upon statistical tests in order to determine if the data is real. How does this work? 32Normal (Gaussian) Distribution95%2.5%2.5%If we take a population of individuals and measure some component, like height, we will end up with a curve like this. Most individuals will fall somewhere near the middle of the curve. However, there will be a small percentage that fall on either end of the curve. In science, we say that a result is different from the average if it falls in the top or bottom 2.5%. A probability or p value is usually considered significant when it is less than 0.05, or a 5 percent probability of the result occurring by chance. 33Are Two Populations Different?Population 1Population 2Here are the hypothetical graphs of two populations, population 1 and population 2. The averages of these two populations seem different, although there are a number of observations where the two curves overlap. Statistical tests can be used to tell us whether these two populations are statistically different. All science journal articles will contain statistical tests for significance. 34CorrelationX-ValuesY-Values12243648510612714R2 = 1.0What we are going to look at today are tests of correlation. Here we have two sets of values. If we plot these values on a graph we get this set of points. We can draw a straight line through these point. Since all the points land exactly on the line, the correlation coefficient, r, is exactly at its maximum value of 1.0. 35No CorrelationX-ValuesY-Values1135141163613977814 Here are another set of points. They look a little more random. If we draw our best fit line through these points, we see that the points fall far from the line. The correlation coefficient of the line is nearly zero, the minimum value possible. So, if two set of values are correlated, they will have an r value near 1 and if they arent correlated, they will have an r value near zero. 36Pearsons Correlation The Pearsons correlation coefficient is calculated using this formula. However, since we scientists are lazy, we use this Microsoft Excel command. 37Probability (p) ValueWe can also get a probability value for the correlation through this formula. However, since we are lazy, we use this Excel formula. In science, a p value less than 0.05 is usually considered significant. 38Religious CorrelationsDo unbelievers see more UFOs?So, our hypothesis is that unbelievers see more UFOs than believers. The problem is that there is no direct data to test this hypothesis. None of the UFO reporting groups collected data on religious affiliation. So, we are going to examine this question by running statistical correlations. 39Positive Correlation of Lack of Religion with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.Frank Newport. 2012. Mississippi Is Most Religious U.S. State. Gallup.com, 3/27/2012.The National UFO Reporting Center lists UFO sighting data by state on its website. Using this data, along with Gallup data on the percentage of people with no religion by state we can perform a correlation analysis. So, on this graph, we are plotting the percentage of people with no religion on the x-axis vs the frequency of UFO sightings on the y-axis for each of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia. Here is the plot of the data, showing a highly significant positive correlation between the percentage of unbelievers and the frequency of UFO sightings. The p value is 1.89 x 10-10, which means that the probability of the result occurring by chance is less than 1 in 20 billion!40Negative Correlation of Religiosity with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.Mississippians Go to Church the Most; Vermonters, Least. Gallup.com, 2/17/2010.If the percent of unbelievers is positively correlated with UFO sightings, what would we expect to find with measures of religiosity? Yes, there is a strong negative correlation between religiosity and UFO sightings.41Negative Correlation of Weekly Church Attendance with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.Mississippians Go to Church the Most; Vermonters, Least. Gallup.com, 2/17/2010.What about weekly church attendance? Yes, there is a strong negative correlation.42Geographic CorrelationsWhy are UFO sightings higher in the West?As noted previously, a lot of the UFO sightings happen in the west. Why is this?43Negative Correlation of Longitude with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.Average Latitude and Longitude for US States (http://dev.maxmind.com/geoip/legacy/codes/state_latlon/)So, if we plot longitude vs. UFO sightings, we find that there is, indeed, a negative correlation. However, if we look at the states, we find that the low UFO sighting states are mostly found in the religious southeast, whereas the high UFO sightings states are found in the less religious west and northwest. So, this geographic correlation is likely the result of religious differences rather than geographic location per se. So, if we look at latitude (north-south), what would we expect to find based upon religious differences? 44Positive Correlation of Latitude with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.Average Latitude and Longitude for US States (http://dev.maxmind.com/geoip/legacy/codes/state_latlon/)Yes, there is a strong correlation between latitude and UFO sightings. 45Racial/Ethnic CorrelationsIs there a racial connection?Lets look at racial and ethnic correlations. 46Correlation of Caucasian Race with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. Release Date: December 2013.This is a plot of % Caucasians vs UFO sightings frequency. There is a barely significant positive correlation if you are white. 47No Correlation of Hispanic Ethnicity with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. Release Date: December 2013.There isnt any correlation with % Hispanics. Do we think there will be a correlation with the number of African Americans? 48Correlation of % African Americans with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. Release Date: December 2013.Yes, there is a strong negative correlation between the % African American and UFO sightings. Besides living in the Souths Bible Belt, African Americans are more religious than other ethnic groups.49No Correlation of % Asians with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. Release Date: December 2013.And there is no correlation between the % Asians and UFO sightings. 50Educational Attainment CorrelationsDo educated or uneducated see more UFOs?Do educated or uneducated people see more UFOs? 51Negative Correlation of Non-High School Grads with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.U.S. Census Bureau, Education - The 2012 Statistical Abstract.There is a strong negative correlation between the number of high school dropouts and UFO sightings. However, you will notice that most the high school dropouts are located in the southeastern states. 52Correlation of High School Grads with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.U.S. Census Bureau, Education - The 2012 Statistical Abstract.There is a slightly positive correlation of UFO sightings with those who have completed high school. Maybe the saying, A little learning is a dangerous thing is true. 53No Correlation of Bachelors Degree with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.U.S. Census Bureau, Education - The 2012 Statistical Abstract.There is no correlation from those with bachelors degrees. 54No Correlation of Advanced Degree with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.U.S. Census Bureau, Education - The 2012 Statistical Abstract.Or advanced degrees. 55Some UFOs are probably spaceships from other worldsD. A. Vakoch, A. A. Harrison, eds. 2011. Civilizations Beyond Earth: Extraterrestrial Life and SocietyIn a survey asking whether Some UFOs are probably spaceships from other worlds, more people without degrees agree with the statement, whereas those with college degrees tend to disagree with the statement. 56Miscellaneous CorrelationsIncome, age, employment, government workersIts always good to have some controls that would be expected to be negative, according to your hypothesis. So, here are some random controls. 57No Correlation of Per Capita Income with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.Per Capita Personal Income by State, 1990 to 2012. University of New MexicoThere is no correlation with per capita income. 58No Correlation of Age with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.U.S. Census Bureau, Age and Sex Composition: 2010 Census Briefs.There is no correlation with age. 59No Correlation of % Underemployed with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.Frank Newport. 2012. Mississippi Is Most Religious U.S. State. Gallup.com, 3/27/2012.There is no correlation with % underemployed. 60No Correlation of % Government Workers with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.Frank Newport. 2012. Mississippi Is Most Religious U.S. State. Gallup.com, 3/27/2012.There is no correlation with % government workers. 61No Correlation of Democrat Lean with UFO SightingsNational UFO Reporting Center, Report Index by State/Province.Frank Newport. 2012. Mississippi Is Most Religious U.S. State. Gallup.com, 3/27/2012.There is no correlation with % that lean toward the Democratic Party. 62Summary CorrelationsParameterrpReligionNo Religion0.7501.89 x 10-10Very Religious-0.5433.56 x 10-5Weekly Church-0.6101.84 x 10-6GeoLatitude0.4952.12 x 10-4Longitude-0.4202.12 x 10-3RacialCaucasian0.2774.89 x 10-2Asian-0.1034.72 x 10-1*Black-0.5904.73 x 10-6Hispanic0.0537.11 x 10-1*EducationNot High School-0.5443.44 x 10-5Advanced Degree-0.0666.44 x 10-1*Bachelor's0.0298.38 x 10-1*High School0.4311.55 x 10-3Misc.Income-0.1094.45 x 10-1*Median Age0.2111.37 x 10-1*Underemployed-0.0656.50 x 10-1*Government Workers0.0994.90 x 10-1*Democrat Lean-0.1542.81 x 10-1*Here is a summary of all the correlations. By far, the strongest correlation with UFO sighting frequency is between the % of individuals with no religion. As expected, measures of religious involvement exhibit a strong negative correlation with UFO sightings. Being African American or not finishing high school are also negatively correlated, since the largest percentage of these individuals are found in the religious southeast. Even the geographic correlations have a religious component, since low UFO sightings in the southeastern portion of the US account for the majority of those correlations. Miscellaneous parameters, which would not fit with our hypothesis, are shown not to be correlated with UFO sightings.63ConclusionsEven if aliens existed, they couldnt get here UFOs are not realDemons want to convince unbelievers UFOs are realUFO sightings are highly correlated with the % unbelievers in a stateSo, lets put it all together. We showed that even if intelligent alien life existed, it could never travel the vast distances between civilizations.64If Aliens Were in Charge of Heaven

The End