UCAR Community Advisory Committee for NCEP (UCACN) Setting the Stage

Dennis W. Staley

Executive Officer, NCEP

Outline

• NOAA/NWS/NCEP Update

• NAS/NAPA Report Summary

• Disaster Recovery Act: Sandy Supplemental

• FY13 Accomplishments

• FY14: A Look Ahead

• Summary of Progress on UCACN Recommendations from January 2013 Report *

NOAA/NWS/NCEP Update

• Dr. Bill M. Lapenta Announced as New NCEP Director on January 6, 2014

• Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Takes Reigns as NWS Director in February 2013

• NWS Director Top Priorities

– Develop a Transparent and Credible Budget and Planning Process (New Budget Structure; HQ Reorganization)

– Ensure NWS Remains a Viable Science-Based, Service Delivery Organization (Integrated Field Structure; Consistency)

• Committed to Weather Ready Nation Strategic Outcome and Six NWS Strategic Goals

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NWS Strategic PlanGoals

• Improve Weather Decision Services for Events that Threaten Lives and Livelihoods (IDSS)

• Deliver a Broad Suite of Improved Water Forecasting Services to Support Management of the Nation’s Water Supply (Water)

• Enhance Climate Services to Help Communities, Businesses and Governments Understand and Adapt to Climate Related Risks (Climate)

• Improve Sector-Relevant Information in Support of Economic Productivity (Enable Economy)

• Enable Integrated Environmental Forecast Services Supporting Healthy Communities and Ecosystems (Healthy Ecosystems)

• Sustain a Highly Skilled, Professional Workforce Equipped with the Training, Tools and Infrastructure to Meet Our Mission (Workforce)

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• Foundation for Moving Forward• Stakeholder & Employee Buy-in

NOAA/NWS/NCEP Update

• Challenging Year with Sequestration Impacts (and Government Shutdown)

– 5% Across the Board Reduction

– NOAA Hiring Freeze

– Travel Restrictions

• However, Optimism Growing with Passing of Final Congressional Budget (Omnibus Bill Provides $100+M Over FY14 Full Year Continuing Resolution for NWS)

• Sandy Supplemental Provides Opportunity for Quantum Leap in All Aspects of End-to-End Forecast Process

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• Established New Planning and Budgeting Process (More Transparent/Credible) - Both Internally (Employees) and Externally (Key Stakeholders)

• Centered around Functions of the End-to-End Forecast Process (Obs, Central Processing, Analyze Forecast and Support, Dissemination, Science and Technology Integration)

• New Budget Structure Supported up to OMB Level

• Go Live in FY15

• Finalizing New HQ Reorganization

• Established New Water Center in Alabama

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Key HQ Activities

NWS Budget Restructuring

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Observations

Central Processing

Analyze, Forecast, Support

Disseminate

Surface, Ocean & Upper Air Observations, Aircraft Obs, Radiosondes, NEXRAD, ASOS, Buoys, Snow

Surveys, Profilers, National Mesonet, Observations Support

Data Collection/Display, AWIPS, Model Implementations,

Supercomputing, Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System

IT & Dissemination Systems; Telecommunications Gateway, NOAA Weather Radio; NEXTGEN, Ground

Readiness, NOMADS

Research/Development/Assess, Environmental Modeling Center, Test and Demonstration, WRN

Pilot Projects, Testbeds, Training, CSTAR, Education & Outreach

Programs

Portfolios

WFO Forecasts & Warnings, National Service Centers, River Forecast Centers, Tsunami Services,

Decision Support Services, WCM Program

Science & Technology Integration

John Murphy

Ben Kyger

Andy Stern

Luis Cano

Ming Ji

NAS/NAPA Summary (Key Drivers for NWS Future)

• National Academy of Science (NAS) Report: ‘Weather Services for the Nation: Becoming Second to None”

• National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) Report: “Forecast for the Future”

• Foundation for Moving NWS/NCEP Forward

• Both Reports Endorsed Weather Ready Nation Concept and Six (6) NWS Strategic Goals

• Both Identified Recommendations in Computing, Modeling, R2O

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NAPA Report: Forecast for the Future

Strategic

Call for Federal Advisory

Committee (FAC)

Tactical*

Future Structure of NWS – Pace of Change

Enhanced R2O/O2R – Training

Embraced “Weather-Ready Nation” and Six Strategic Goals – can’t do it alone

Consistency across the NWS: Decision Support Services – reliable/timely/accurate

Recognized “Secondary Value Chain” – Public/Private Partnership

“Open Weather and Climate” Support for Commercial and Research sectors

Centralize Functions of Change Management/IT Development

Simplify/Sustain Infrastructure

**Restructured/transparent budget follows function*New NWSEO relationship

NAPA Report:Grand Challenges

1. Pace of Change: Orderly Process vs. Immediate Savings

2. Budget Restructuring: Aligning budget to function and linking to performance

3. Managing Innovation: Engaging all stakeholders and avoiding hidden costs

4. Consistent Services: Timely, Accurate, Reliable Services Consistent Across the Nation

5. Labor / Management Relations: Building a strategic partnership

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Sandy Supplemental

• Provides $466M to NOAA to Address Sandy Mitigation ($87M to NWS)

• Key Areas:– Observations

– Computing Capacity

– Model Upgrades

– Dissemination: Ground Readiness

– Storm Surge Enhancements

– Training; Including Social Science

– JPSS Gap Mitigation

– Facilities Repairs*

✓ A “Game Changer” for Enhancing the Entire Forecast Process✓ Offers Opportunity to Accelerate Major Advancements to the Operational Computer and Model Infrastructure✓ Monthly Tracking and Reporting Required (Over 30 Different Projects Being Tracked and Reported up to Congress)

Sandy Supplemental Projects

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• Operational Supercomputing

• Global & Ensemble Model Upgrades

• Global 4-D Hybrid Data Assimilation

• Tropical Cyclone Relocation in NAM

• Observing System Experiments

• HPC Software Management and Integration (Operational Model Implementation Support)

• Blends of Global Models

• GOES Data Assimilation and Product Development

• Cloud-Based Radiance Data Assimilation

• Atmospheric Motion Vectors

• Near-shore Wave Prediction System

• SLOSH & Gridded Winds

• Storm Surge Guidance

• Storm Surge Training

• Social Science & Science Infusion Training

• Decision Support Services Training

• Facilities – WFO Hardening

• Facilities – WFO Repair

• Facilities – NOAA Weather Radio Facilities

• Rain Gage O&M

• Automated Surface Observations

• Radiosondes (Upper Air)

• Caribbean Radar Observations

• Dual Pol NEXRAD Enhancements

• Multi-Radar, Multi-Sensor Systems (R2O)

• Aircraft Observations

• Buoys

• NWS Data Availability

• NOAA Weather Wire Service & NOAA Weather Radio

• Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS)

• Ground Readiness Project

• Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (R2O)

Sandy Supplemental

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73208

208

1900

FY14 Omnibus Bill

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• Provides $1.07B to NWS: $119M Increase Over the FY14 Full Year Continuing Resolution

• Highlights:• Labor and Operations - $23M• Expand and Accelerate Weather Forecasting R2O - $14.8M• Strengthen U. S. Tsunami Warning Network - $5.9M• National Mesonet Network - $6.5M• Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services - $4.0M• Aviation Weather - $5.7M• Weather & Climate Supercomputing - $9.4M• WFO Construction - $5M• Restores Previous Sequestration Reductions

FY14 Omnibus Bill(Expand and Accelerate R2O - $14.8M)

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• Improve Forecast Guidance By Building the Next Generation Global Prediction System

• Build a Robust “Catchers Mitt” to Apply Research Advances to Operational Modeling Needs

• Coordinated Community Technology Systems to Improve Effective Transition of Research into Operations

• Expanded Developmental Testing Center to Facilitate Broad External Participation

• Closely Coordinated Planning and Execution by Federal R&D Community Partners

• Small Grants to Address Known Science Issues That Will Rapidly Improve Regional/Local Forecasts

• Building the Next Generation Warning/Forecast Paradigm to Support Impact-Based Decision Support Services

5-Year Goals/Strategy

FY14 Omnibus Bill(Expand and Accelerate R2O - $14.8M)

• Major Components• Model Improvmeents

• CSTAR

• Travel (Professional Conferences)

• Training

• Testbed Experiments (Field Participation of Spring, Winter Wx, Flash Flood experiments)

• Test Bed Proving Ground

• Storm surge (ET surge, incl. social science)

• Next generation warning/forecast paradigm

• Verification

• Fire Wx

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FY13 Accomplishments

• Excellent Performance During Extreme Events: Hurricane Sandy; May Tornado Outbreaks; January Arctic Outbreak

• SANDY SUPPLEMENTAL!!

• Implemented New Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputer System

• Implemented Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model Upgrade (Includes Hybrid 3DVAR Data Assimilation Scheme and Tail Doppler Radar Data from NOAA P-3 Aircraft)

• Implemented New Operational Satellite Datasets to Global Data Assimilation System (CrIS, METOP-B AMSU-A/MHS/GRAS and SEVIRI from Meteosat-10)

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FY13 Accomplishments

• HPC Name Change to Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

• Generated Full Suite of WPC Medium-Range Products Twice Per Day

• Began Issuing QPF Forecasts Year Round for Days 6/7 – Every Six Hours

• SPC Began issuing New Fire Weather Outlook Products

• AWC Certified as ISO Compliant for Quality Management Systems

• Conducted First Ever Aviation Winter Weather Experiment

• Hosted and Trained 24 Visiting Scientists at International Desks

• Participated in Key Outreach Events: Space Wx Week/National Severe Weather Workshop *

FY14: A Look Ahead

• Continue Sandy Supplemental Projects

• Begin to Get Healthy – Promising Omnibus Bill

• Fill Critical Vacancies

• Restore Training/Travel/Equipment Sequestration Reductions

• Accelerate R2O

• Award Contract and Deliver New Supercomputer (Phase 2)

• Implement Operational Model Upgrades: GFS, HRRR, HWRF

• Integrate NWS Field Participation into Test Bed Experiments (Winter Weather Experiment, HWT Spring Experiment, Flash Flood Experiment, Summer Aviation Experiment

• Many Others (can be discussed in Center break-out sessions)

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Summary of Progress on UCACN Recommendations from January 2013

Report

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Management

Aggressive Recruitments for EMC/SWPC Director (Note: Two Additional Center Director Positions Vacant – CPC/WPC)

Create Deputy Director/Chief Operating Officer Positions

Reduce Reliance on Extramural Funding

Broaden/Deepen Engage with External Stakeholders

EMC-NCO Cooperation

Summary of Progress on UCACN Recommendations from January 2013

Report

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Partnerships

Create Visiting Scientist Program (VSP)

Enhance Engagement with Weather Enterprise

Create More Effective Relationship with OAR

More Coordinated Interagency Approach on Storm Surge and Inundation Efforts

Develop National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Strategic Plan

Increase Interactions with International Research Community

Strengthen Relationship with Customers

Summary of Progress on UCACN Recommendations from January 2013

Report

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Computing and IT

Increase Computing Capability

Establish an IT Testbed in NCO

Refine and Improve the Model Implementation Process

Summary of Progress on UCACN Recommendations from January 2013

Report

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Modeling

Develop a Unified Modeling Strategy

Develop an Atmospheric and Oceanic Data Assimilation Strategic Plan

Develop an Advanced, Collaborative Approach to Coastal, Surge/Inundation and Ocean Forecasting

Enable Ecological Forecasting Capability

Summary

• Sandy Supplemental Will be A Game Changer

• 2014/2015 Budget Outlook is Brighter

• HQ Changes Will Impact NCEP (Budget Structure/Reorg)

• New NCEP Leadership Committed to Continuing Relationship with UCACN – Advice and Guidance from Review Committee is Important to NCEP

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UCAR Community Advisory Committee for NCEP (UCACN) Members

• Allan Blumberg: Stevens Institute of Technology

• Lance Bosart: State University of New York (NHC, WPC, SPC)

• Gilbert Brunet: UKMet Office (EMC, OD)

• Fred Carr (Co-Chair): University of Oklahoma (AWC, EMC, WPC, NHC, OS, SPC)

• John Dutton: Prescient Weather (CPC, OD)

• Jim Kinter (Co-Chair): COLA & George Mason University (CPC, EMC, NCO, OD, OPC, SWPC)

• Bill Kuo: NCAR/DTC (EMC, OD)

• Garry Lackmann: North Carolina State University (WPC, SPC)

• Tsengdar Lee: NASA (NCO, EMC)

• Len Pietrafesa: North Carolina State University (OPC, EMC, NHC)

• Warren Qualley: Harris Corps. (AWC)

• Karen Shelton-Mur: FAA (SWPC, AWC)

• Steven Smith: Accuweather, Inc (NCO)

• Steve Woodard: FEMA (NHC, SPC)*

NCEP Directors

• Bill Lapenta – NCEP Director

• Bill Lapenta – Acting EMC Director

• Ben Kyger – NCO Director

• Kevin McCarthy – Acting WPC Director

• Ming Ji – OPC Director

• Mike Halpert – Acting CPC Director

• Russ Schneider – SPC Director

• Bob Maxson – AWC Director

• Rick Knabb – NHC Director

• Bill Lapenta – Acting SWPC Director

• Brent Gordon – Acting SWPC Deputy Director

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