Difference of Leisure behavior between sunny day and rainy day

Tokyo Tech Team B

Kamegai, Kikuchi, Shinohara, Tsuru, Mizuguchi

TSU Tokyo Tech

Transport Studies Unit

Introduction

If rainy, I guess leisure activity is…

• Go to a place near their house and not go to far place

• Change their means of transport

See the influence on distance for leisure activity caused by weather.

TSU Tokyo Tech

Transport Studies Unit

0.652

0.517

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Sunny day Rainy day

Nu

mb

er(/

day

/per

son

)

Basic Analysis

6956.4897426.936

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Sunny day Rainy day

Dis

tan

ce(m

)Trip Distance

Trip distance is almost equal

Sunny day: Trip numbers are large

Trip Numbers

Future works: Research the influence of leisure caused by weather

TSU Tokyo Tech

Transport Studies Unit

Suggest model TSU Tokyo Tech

Transport Studies Unit

・Most of data are from the middle class(36-45).・6 people (20%) are unanswered.

→Precision is low, and we cannot count them in variable.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

1 2 3

Nu

mb

er

of

pe

rso

n

Number of trips

rainy day

28-35

36-45

46-54

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1 2 3

Nu

mb

er

of

pe

rso

n

Number of trips

sunny day

28-35

36-45

46-54

Age

Suggest model TSU Tokyo Tech

Transport Studies Unit

A man has more number of the trips per 1 tour than a woman.

1.8137

1.613

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Nu

mb

er o

f tr

ips(

/a t

ou

r)

sex

Number of trips

men women

Sex

Suggest model TSU Tokyo Tech

Transport Studies Unit

The destination is limited to the available place even on a rainy day.→Movement distance and total required time get longer.

2690.243

2839.377

2600

2650

2700

2750

2800

2850

2900

sunny rainy

tim

e(se

c)

climate

Total Required Time

Total Required Time to arrive at the destination

Suggest model TSU Tokyo Tech

Transport Studies Unit

On a rainy day, we use public transport to avoid rain even if we need to pay money.→More costly

297.143

370.065

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Tota

l Co

st(y

en)

climate

Total Cost

sunny rainy

Total Cost

Suggest model TSU Tokyo Tech

Transport Studies Unit

𝑈1 = 𝛽𝑆𝐸𝑋1 ∗ 𝑆1 + 𝛽𝑇𝐼𝑀𝐸1 ∗ 𝑇1 + 𝛽𝐶𝑂𝑆𝑇1 ∗ 𝐶1 + 𝛽𝑅𝐴𝐼𝑁1 ∗ 𝑅1𝑈2 = 𝛽𝑆𝐸𝑋2 ∗ 𝑆2 + 𝛽𝑇𝐼𝑀𝐸2 ∗ 𝑇2 + 𝛽𝐶𝑂𝑆𝑇2 ∗ 𝐶2 + 𝛽𝑅𝐴𝐼𝑁2 ∗ 𝑅2𝑈3 = 𝛽𝑆𝐸𝑋3 ∗ 𝑆3 + 𝛽𝑇𝐼𝑀𝐸3 ∗ 𝑇3 + 𝛽𝐶𝑂𝑆𝑇3 ∗ 𝐶3 + 𝛽𝑅𝐴𝐼𝑁3 ∗ 𝑅3

List Item

𝑆𝑛 SEX (DUMMY)

𝑇𝑛 TOTAL TRAVEL TIME

𝐶𝑛 TOTAL COST

𝑅𝑛 RAIN (DUMMY)

・To utilize the 3 elements of the foregoing as an explanatory variable

Activities are different from weather→Introduction of “𝑅𝑛”(Rain dummy) as a dummy variable.

Result of estimation TSUTokyo Tech

Transport Studies Unit

Value Std err t-test P-value

𝛽𝑅𝐴𝐼𝑁1 0.854 0.397 2.15 0.03

𝛽𝑅𝐴𝐼𝑁2 -0.116 0.449 -0.26 0.80

𝛽𝑆𝐸𝑋1 1.83 0.285 6.43 0.00

𝛽𝑆𝐸𝑋2 1.18 0.293 4.04 0.00

𝛽𝐶𝑂𝑆𝑇1 0.000597 0.000305 1.96 0.05

𝛽𝐶𝑂𝑆𝑇2 0.000562 0.000246 2.28 0.02

𝛽𝑇𝐼𝑀𝐸2 -0.0239 0.00532 -4.49 0.00

𝛽𝑇𝐼𝑀𝐸2 -0.0157 0.00497 -3.15 0.00

RAIN1 is + and that of RAIN2 is - : The weather influences the first actionCOST is +：It becomes easy to move so as to take cost

In t-test,

Policy TSU Tokyo Tech

Transport Studies Unit

1.Shortening of the movement time：・Increasing number of service of the public transport・Increasing facilities which are available on a rainy day

2.Restraint of the movement expense・Discounting in a destination and public transport

3.Environmental maintenance for women to be easy to go out

Simulation TSU Tokyo Tech

Transport Studies Unit

・Will the number of the trips increase if they discount 20% of fares of the railroad?

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

no discount

20% discount

Proportion of the number of trips (%)

fare

s

Number of trips

1

2

3

If they discount 20% of fares of the railroad , the proportion of person with number of the trips per a tour more than 3 doubles.

Policy TSU Tokyo Tech

Transport Studies Unit

ex.)Increase flights of buses on a rainy day(遠州鉄道バス)If the probability of rain tomorrow of the day before 11:00 is more than 50% , they increase flights buses at some routes.

APPENDIX: Results of Nested LogitName Value Std. Error T-test

𝛽𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛1 0.854 0.394 2.17

𝛽𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛2 -0.116 0.448 -0.26

𝛽𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑛3 0 Const.

𝛽𝑠𝑒𝑥𝑑𝑢𝑚𝑚𝑦1 1.83 0.285 6.44

𝛽𝑠𝑒𝑥𝑑𝑢𝑚𝑚𝑦2 1.18 0.293 4.04

𝛽𝑠𝑒𝑥𝑑𝑢𝑚𝑚𝑦3 0 Const.

𝛽𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡1 0.000597 0.000305 1.96

𝛽𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡2 0.000562 0.000246 2.28

𝛽𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡3 0 Const.

𝛽𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒1 -0.0239 0.00532 -4.49

𝛽𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒2 -0.0157 0.00497 -3.15

𝛽𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒3 0 Const.

𝜇 1.00 1.8*10308 0.00

Single Multi

Twice More than 3 times

Once

𝜇

Parameter result is not appropriate