ESSENCE OF DECISIONExplaining the Cuban Missile Crisis

Second Edition

Graham AllisonHarvard UniversitY

Philip ZelikowUniversity of Virginia

EI t.NGMANAn imprint of Addison Wesley Longman, lnc.

New york . Reading, Massachusetts . Menlo Park, california . Harlow England

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To Elisabeth and Paige

Associate Editor: Jennie ErricksonMarketing Manager: Megan GalvinProject Coordination and Text Design: Elm Street Publishing Services, Inc.Cover Designer/Manager: Nancy DanahyCover lllustration: NancY DanahYFull Service Production Manager: Valerie ZaborskiPhoto Researcher: Photosearch, Inc.Senior Manufacturing Buyer: Hugh CrawfordElectronic Page Makeup: Elm Street Publishing Services, Inc'Printer and Binder: R.R. Donnelley & Sons, Co'Cover Printer: Phoenix Color CorP.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication DataAllison, Graham T.

Essence of decision: explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis / GrahamT. Allison, Philip D. Zelikow. - 2nd ed'p. cm.

Includes index.rsBN 0-321-01349-21. Cuban Missile Crisis, 1962.I. Zelikow, Philip, 1954- '

II. Title.8841.A44 1999973S23-dc2l 98-36413

CIP

Preface viiIntroduction 1

Modell: The RatiA Rigorous \1o'3eA Rational -\ctor l

The Classicai \['aqClas-'icuJRiuIntertuTttfr@and Rari"-r";

Variants and Lrsa

2 The Cuban }[issWhy Did the :o'

Cuba? ;8H1'Porh;::;HlPorlussTrade- ,ir T"

Why Did the T-:with a Blocl"a'l

A.kert';i"'sPrg't-tllr"5.Akxti;r'aAlrt'rui-'t

Why Did tne Y;

3 ModelII: OrgPOrganizatit-':'alOrganizartirrr'"rInteractir:e [cr:NASA: Her.r atOrganizatlon'a-

Copyright o 1999 byAddison-Wesley Educational Publishers Inc'

A1l rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced' stored

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prior written permission of the publisher. Printed in the united stat6'

Please visit our website at http://longman.awl'com

ISBN 0-321-01349-2

23 4567 89 L}-DOC-O I 0099

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