turkey on the way to high income
DESCRIPTION
Turkey on the way to high income. Martin Raiser Country Director World Bank. Key Messages. Turkey has done well in the past decade Due to demographics, past reform efforts and relatively strong financial buffers Turkey is likely to do well in the next decade - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Turkey on the way to high income
Martin RaiserCountry Director
World Bank
Key Messages
• Turkey has done well in the past decade
• Due to demographics, past reform efforts and relatively strong financial buffers Turkey is likely to do well in the next decade
• To avoid a growth slow-down at high income, Turkey needs to deepen structural reforms
Turkey has done well because of economic integration
Turkey has become part of the European Convergence Machine
The Customs Union with the EU has made Turkish trade brainier
(a) Product composition (% of exports to EU-27) (b) Intra-industry trade (% of exports to EU-27)
010
2030
40(s
um) s
h_re
gion
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Year
Vehicles Machinery TextilesMetals Foodstuffs Vegetables
Turkey has done well because of social inclusion
The shift of economic activity to the East has played a big role in inclusion
Spatial distribution of newly created firms between 2007-2011
Supported by public investments
And improved public services
Turkey’s prospects are favorable because of demographics
But sustaining growth into high income is difficult
And growth in Turkey has been volatile given dependence on foreign financing
The middle income trap
19501952
19541956
19581960
19621964
19661968
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
2010 -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
TurkeyBrazilSouth KoreaMalaysiaMexicoSouth Africa
GDP per capita in 2011 constant PPP USD
What Turkey needs to do to sustain growth: deepen integration
What Turkey needs to do to sustain growth: boost productivity
What Turkey needs to do to sustain growth: boost energy efficiency
World
Turkey
OECD
France
Germany
UK
Denmark
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35
0.3
0.26
0.18
0.18
0.16
0.12
0.11
Energy Intensity (toe/000 2000 USD)
What Turkey needs to do to sustain growth: boost savings and contain growth in transfers
What Turkey needs to do to sustain growth: boost female employment
What Turkey needs to do to sustain growth: make institutions fit for high income
Turkey: an emerging regional and global power
Turkey: an emerging regional and global power
ChinaIndia
United St
ates
Brazil
Japan
Indonesia
Mexico
United Kingd
om
Russian
Federa
tion
German
yFra
nceTu
rkey
Canad
aIta
ly
South Korea
Australia Sp
ain
Argentina
South Afric
a
Poland
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
The 20 largest economies in the world in 2011 and 2060 - OECD
Total GDP in 2011 USD, 2011 and 2060)