1

Türkiye’de iş yaratma ve girişim dinamikleri

İzak Atiyas, Ozan Bakış ve Yusuf Kenan Orhan

2

Kullanılan mikro veriler• Yıllık Sanayi ve Hizmet İstatistikleri

– 20 veya daha fazla çalışanı olan tüm işyerleri– 20’den az çalışanı olan işyerleri arasından temsili bir

örneklem– Çalışan sayısı, katma değer, satışlar, faaliyet– 2005-2011– 2009’da Faaliyet kodlama sistemi NACE Rev 1.1’den

NACE Rev. 2.2’ye dönüştü– Sermaye stoku yok. Amortisman verileri kullanılarak

yaratıldı.– Yerel birimler hakkında satış ve istihdam payı bilgileri

3

• 2010 yılında girişim sayısında yüksek artış– Vergi affı ile ilişkili olabilir

4

• Çerçeve– Türkiye’de tarım hariç (aşağı yukarı) tüm

girişimler– Yaş, istihdam, sektör bilgileri

5

Bazı temel göstergeler

# of workers % of firms % of sales % of emp.% of value added

average labor productivity average age % of firms % of sales % of emp.

% of value added

average labor productivity average age

s1-19 98.13 40.02 56.93 32.24 9485 8.41 97.45 29.41 47.57 21.30 7468 10.10s20-49 1.30 14.54 10.91 11.13 17092 10.03 1.68 14.61 12.06 11.90 16464 11.53s50-99 0.29 6.65 5.41 6.15 19041 12.15 0.44 8.51 6.95 7.88 18883 12.77s100-249 0.19 9.14 7.78 9.42 20265 13.78 0.29 11.67 10.05 12.55 20804 14.23s250-500 0.06 7.07 5.49 8.40 25603 15.56 0.08 7.99 6.59 10.30 26034 16.76s500+ 0.04 22.58 13.49 32.66 40658 20.79 0.06 27.82 16.78 36.07 35806 20.11total 16769 8.46 16664 10.16

6

Küçük girişimlerin istihdam payı azalıyor

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

s1-19

s20-4

9s5

0-99

s100

-249

s250

-500

s500

+

emp_sh 2005

emp_sh 2010

7

Yerel birimlere göre dağılım

size # estab. % estab. % of sales % of emp. # estab. % estab. % of sales % of emp.1-19 2468949 98.14 46.78 60.21 2420603 97.37 37.44 52.1420-49 32652 1.30 15.30 11.20 44881 1.81 17.89 13.6250-99 7146 0.28 6.92 5.56 10809 0.43 8.94 7.30100-249 4773 0.19 11.74 8.17 6835 0.27 12.35 10.17250-499 1375 0.05 6.58 5.35 1837 0.07 9.06 6.22500+ 808 0.03 12.68 9.52 1015 0.04 14.32 10.55total 2,515,703 2,485,980

2005 2010

8

İstihdamın yaş ve büyüklüğe göre dağılımı (2010)

s1-19 s20-49 s50-99 s100-249

s250-500

s500+

0

2

4

6

8

10-14

20-29

40+

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

01

2

34

5

67

8

9

10-1415-19

20-29

30-3940+

9

Giriş çıkış oranları

Overall er xr

2004 28.0 8.7 2005 55.3 13.3 2006 19.1 14.5 2007 8.4 11.3 2008 9.9 14.0 2009 9.2 18.9 2010 71.0 14.4

mean1 28.7 13.6 mean2 11.7 14.7

10

Devam eden, giren ve çıkan girişimlerin özellikleri (2006-2009 ortalaması)

Survivors Entrants Exitors

mean sd mean sd mean sd

employee 120.07 2.69 51.7 3.6 49.7 2.8

LP 20926 160 15294 343 15748 312

lnLP 9.56 0.01 9.3 0.0 9.3 0.0

lnSales 15.30 0.01 14.3 0.0 14.4 0.0

lnVA 13.67 0.01 12.8 0.0 12.8 0.0

ln_KBC_pw 2.43 0.02 2.8 0.1 2.4 0.0

kbc_int 9.06 0.12 8.2 0.3 7.2 0.3

profit 9.11 0.09 8.6 0.4 8.2 0.3

age 13.70 0.07 6.9 0.2 10.2 0.2

Source: Authors' calculations using AISS, 20+ firms. employee: number of total employees in the firm, LP: labor productiviy defined as value added per employee, lnLP: log(LP+1), lnSales: log(sales +1), lnVA: log(value added +1), ln_KBC_pw : log(knowledge based capital investment per worker +1), kbc_int: the ratio of knowledge based capital investment to total investment multiplied by 100, profit: the ratio of value added minus wage compensation to sales multiplied by 100, age: current year minus birth year.

11

Devam eden, giren ve çıkan girişimlerin pazar payları (2006-2009 ortalaması)

Survivors Entrants Exitors sal_sh 95.9 4.1 5.6 va_sh 96.5 3.5 4.3

emp_sh 94.1 5.9 7.6

12

Yeni girişim yaşama oranları (2006 yılında giren girişimler)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Activ

e fir

ms a

s % o

f tot

al e

ntra

nts

in 2

006

13

Yen, giren girişimlerin İV ve büyüklükleri

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

0 1 2 3 4Rela

tive

prod

uctiv

ity an

d si

ze

Years after entry

Productivity Size

Notes: For each year after entry, the figure shows the ratio of the (unweighted) mean productivity (size) of the surviving firms that entered the data set in 2006, to the mean productivity (size) of the cohort in 2006. Productivity is defined as value added divided by the number of employees. Size is the number of employees.

14

Verimlilik dönüşüm tabloları

Panel A: 4 Year Transitions

Productivity 4 years after entry - 2010 Productivity at entry - 2006 Exit q1 q2 q3 q4 q5

q1 60.21 18.58 8.71 5.15 4.11 3.25 q2 53.16 14.41 17.35 8.89 4.17 2.02 q3 51.41 7.18 13.44 15.4 9.26 3.31 q4 47.33 5.09 7.11 13.98 17.41 9.07

q5 42.52 3.87 2.45 5.64 14.11 31.41

Panel B: 4 Year Transitions Productivity 4 years later - 2010 Productivity - 2006 Exit q1 q2 q3 q4 q5

q1 54.04 14.63 10.9 8.46 7.23 4.74 q2 45.65 10.48 15.04 15.54 9.02 4.27 q3 39.64 5.74 10.69 17.64 17.11 9.19 q4 37.21 4.05 5.21 12.02 22.03 19.49

q5 30.17 3.45 2.5 5.32 13.82 44.74

15

Büyüklük dönüşüm tablolarıPanel A: 4 Year Transitions

Size 4 years after entry - 2010 Size at entry - 2006 Exit 20-49 50-99 100-249 250-499 500+

20-49 52.6 34.26 9.27 3.17 0.56 0.14 50-99 43.33 17.82 16.41 16.28 4.36 1.79

100-249 39.32 7.12 7.43 29.41 11.76 4.95 250-499 36.84 1.32 2.63 11.84 31.58 15.79

500+ 25.71 0 2.86 2.86 5.71 62.86

Panel B: 4 Year Transitions Size 4 years later - 2010 Size - 2006 Exit 20-49 50-99 100-249 250-499 500+

20-49 47.43 37.88 10.72 3.45 0.4 0.13 50-99 32.69 17.34 27.79 18.93 2.5 0.76

100-249 26.3 5.34 11.77 42.21 11.35 3.04 250-499 22.55 2.67 2.88 16.21 37.46 18.23

500+ 16.01 1.23 1.23 3.36 10.86 67.3

16

Yaşa göre göreli istihdam (2009)

02468

1012141618

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40+

Manufacturing All economy

Notes: Authors’ calculations based on the 2009 cross-section. Size is measured as total number of employees. The figure displays 4-digit industry-weighted (weights are equal to the employment share of industry in total employment – or total manufacturing) average employment as a ratio of employment in 2006.

Yaşa göre göreli istihdam ABD, Hindistan ve Meksika

18

Yaşa göre göreli İV (2009)

Notes: Authors’ calculations based on the 2009 cross-section. Productivity is measured as value added divided by the number of employees. The figure displays 4-digit industry-weighted (weights are equal to the employment share of industry in total employment – or total manufacturing employment) mean of productivity as a ratio of the industry-weighted productivity of the base age group of 0-4.

19

İş yaratma 2006

İş yaratma (2006 ve 2010)

20

PU

MIN

TSC

CSPS

FIRE

CON

MAN

WRT

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000

Net JC - 2010 Net JC - 2006

Source: Authors' calculations using AISS, 20+ firms. Job creation for 2006 is defined over years 2005 and 2006. For a firm appearing in both years net job creation is the difference between employment levels. For entering firms we assume that all employment is net job creation. Similarly, for exiting firms we assume that all employment is destructed (net job creation is negative). The same applies to 2010. MIN: Mining and quarrying, MAN: Manufacturing, PU: Electricity, gas and water supply, CON: Construction, WRT: Wholesale and retail trade , hotels and restaurants, TSC: Transportation, communication and storage, FIRE: Financial intermediation; real estate,

rental and business services, CSPS: Education; health; community services, social and personal activities.

21

İş yaratma 2010

22

Girişim büyüme regresyonları

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

20-49 50-99 100-249 150-499

size(average) size (average) + age

Notes: 20+ firms over the period 2006-2010. The figure displays the regression coefficients of net job creation, measured by the Davis-Haltiwanger-Shuh growth rate, on firm size (dashed line) and size and age (solid line) dummies, controlling for industry (single digit NACE Rev. 1.1) and year. Size in year t is measured as average size between year t and t-1. The regressions include a constant term. The omitted categories are the largest size (500+) and oldest age (40+) group and the year the year 2006.

23

Girişim büyüme regresyonları

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

age

Notes: 20+ firms over the period 2006-2010. The figure displays regression coefficients of net job creation, measured by the Davis-Haltiwanger-Shuh growth rate, on firm age dummies, controlling for industry (single digit NACE Rev. 1.1) and year. The regression includes a constant term. The omitted categories are the oldest age (40+) group and the year the year 2006. Adding size dummies has very little effect on the estimated coefficients of age dummies.

24

Girişim istihdam büyüme oranı regresyonları

1 2 3 4 5 Productivity 0.007*** 0.007*** 0.010*** 0.013*** (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) Profitability 0.00061*** 0.00054*** 0.00051*** 0.00038*** (0.00004) (0.00005) (0.00005) (0.00006) size dummies no no yes yes yes age dummies no no yes yes yes year dummies yes yes yes yes yes activity dummies 1 digit 1 digit 1 digit 1 digit 2digit region dummies no no no yes yes No. of observations 176665 178191 176006 174402 143178 R-squared 0.027 0.028 0.056 0.0578 0.0644

Notes: The dependent variable is job growth rate, as defined by Davis-Haltiwanger and Shuh. All regressions cover the period 2006-2010, except for that reported in the last column, which covers the period 2006-2009. Productivity is defined as value added divided by the number of employees. Profitability is measured as value added minus wage payments divided by total sales. Both are measured as averages over the period for which growth is measured, except for new entrants (exitors), in which case contemporaneous (last period) values are used. Size in time t is measured as average of size between t and t-1. Standard errors are in parentheses.

25

Yaratılan iş sayısı: Ceylan vs ceylan olmayan girişimler

Source: Authors' calculations using AISS, 20+ firms. Gazelles are firms increasing their employment more than two fold in a time span of 3 years. Non-gazelles are then continuing firms between t and t+3 that do not double their employment and new entries.

26

Yaratılan ortalama iş sayısı: Ceylan vs. ceylan olmayan girişimler

27

Ceylan vs. ceylan olmayan girişimlerin dönem başı İV

Source: Authors' calculations using AISS, 20+ firms. First, we compute aggregate labor productivity of gazelles and non-gazelles at the beginning of the period. For instance, we compute labor productivity using 2005 values for 2005-2008 period. Then, we take their ratio to get the above figure. Note that some of non-gazelles entering into the relative labor productivity computation, will not survive due to exit.

Ceylanların sektörel dağılımı (2005-2010)

28

sector gazelle share CON 8.76CPGS 5.38FIRE 5.90MAN 4.77MIN 9.71PU 2.69TSC 3.88WRT 5.36

Source: Authors' calculations using AISS, 20+ firms. Gazelles are firms increasing their employment two fold or more in a time span of 3 years. Non-gazelles are then continuing firms between t and t+3 that do not double their employment and new entries. The values in the table refer to the arithmetic average of 2005-2008, 2006-2009 and 2007-2010

Ceylan vs. ceylan olmayan girişimlerin ortalama yaş ve büyüklüğü

29

period Ave. empl. Ave. age

2005-2008 non-gazelle 26.68 13.16

2005-2008 gazelle 93.58 10.83

2006-2009 non-gazelle 130.41 13.54

2006-2009 gazelle 77.63 10.86

2007-2010 non-gazelle 139.96 14.33

2007-2010 gazelle 100.55 12.21

Teşekkürler