TTP Challenging the Writ: Military Action and Results

Dr Tughral YaminAssociate Dean

Centre for International Peace & Stability (CIPS)

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

• WHO ARE THE TTP?• WHY ARE THEY CHALLENGING THE WRIT OF

THE STATE?• WHAT HAS THE MILITARY ACTION ACHIEVED

SO FAR?• HOW CAN THE WRIT OF THE STATE BE TRULY

RESTORED?

WHO ARE THE TTP?• PARADOXICAL PHENOMENON

– IDENTIFIES ITSELF WITH THE STATE OF PAKISTAN AND – YET IT IS BENT ON WEAKENING THE WRIT OF THE STATE,

• AREA OF OPERATION– MAINLY IN FATA– EXTENDS INTO THE SETTLED AREAS AS WELL

• WORLDVIEW. RIGID, OBCURANTIST & MEDIEVAL• CONTRASTING AIMS & AMBITIONS

– THEIR MISSION IS NOT GLOBAL AND ALTHOUGH THEY SPEAK ABOUT THE REVIVAL OF THE CALIPHATE THERE IS NO REAL MOTIVATION TO INTERNATIONALISE THEIR BRAND OF JIHAD

– THEY MERELY WANT AUTONOMY WITHIN THEIR OWN THEIR OWN FIEFDOMS, WHERE THEY CAN ENFORCE THEIR OWN VERSION OF THE RELIGION

– SOME IMBUED BY RELIGIOUS ZEAL WANT TO EXPAND THEIR REVOLUTIONS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY IN ORDER TO REPLACE THE EXISTING FORM OF DEMOCRACY BY ONE SUITING THEIR OWN IDEOLOGY

• NUMBER OF RANK & FILE. 35,000 TO 65000

Dawn report, APRIL 6, 2014

TTP WEBSITE

WHAT IS THEIR GENESIS?• LOOSE GROUPING OF TALIBAN IN FATA FORMED

AN INFORMAL ALLIANCE IN 2007• USE THE AFGHAN TALIBAN MODEL AS

INSPIRATION• HAVE A NOTIONAL EMIR– BAITULLAH MEHSUD (KILLED IN DRONE STRIKE)– HAKEEMULLAH MEHSUD (KILLED IN DRONE STRIKE)– MULLAH FAZLUULLAH (SWAT – CURRENTLY HIDING

IN KUNAR IN AFGHANISTAN)

WHO ARE THEIR LEADERS?

FAZLULLAHHIKMATULLAH

BAITULLAH

WHAT IS THEIR OUTLOOK/POLICIES?• POLICY OF BLUFF & BLUSTER WITH THE GOVERNMENT• STRATEGY OF FEAR WITH THE COMMON MAN• ROUGH & READY JUSTICE• TACTICS OF REPRISAL AGAINST SOFT TARGETS IN

SETTLED AREAS• ANACHRONISTIC IDEAS SUCH AS– ANTI MINORITIES– ANTI EDUCATION/ ANTI GIRL’S EDUCATION– ANTI WOMEN– ANTI MODERNISM

POSTURING WITH THE GOVERNMENT

May 4, 2013

Letter received by Beacon House school of KarachiFeb 03, 2015

ANTI EDUCATION

15 May, 2010

ANTI GIRLS EDUCATION

February 4, 2015

ANTI MINORITY

ROUGH & READY JUSTICE

WHO ARE THEIR ALLIES?• HAQQANI NETWORK• HIZBE ISLAMI GULBADIN• LASHKAR E JHANGVI• SIPAH E SAHABA• ISLAMIC MOVEMENT OF UZBEKISTAN• EASTERN TURKESTAN MOVEMENT• TEHREEK E NIFAAZ E SHARIAT E MOHAMMADI• TTA

WHY DID THE NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE TALIBAN FAIL?

• THE TALIBAN LAID OUT UNREASONABLE PRE-CONDITIONS LIKE – RELEASE OF PRISONERS– WITHDRAWAL OF STATE FORCES

• THE ATTACK ON JINNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN KARACHI IN JUNE 2014 PROVED TO BE THE LAST STRAW

WHAT HAS THE MILITARY ACHIEVED SO FAR?

• RAH-I-NIJAT – CLEARING OF SWAT VALLEY IN 2009

• RAH-I-RAST – CLEARING OF SWA IN 2009• OPERATION ZARB E AZB – BEGAN IN 2014 TO

CLEAR NWA AND BEYOND

DG ISPR TWEETSDECEMBER 12, 2015

• UPDATE OPERATION ZARBE-E-AZB: ONE AND HALF YEAR AFTER START OF OPERATION ZARB-E-AZB, PHENOMENAL SUCCESSES ACHIEVED. LAST POCKETS CLOSE TO PAK – AFGHAN BORDER BEING CLEARED.

• TERRORIST'S BACKBONE BROKEN. MAIN INFRASTRUCTURE DISMANTLED. NEXUS WITH SLEEPER CELLS LARGELY DISRUPTED. INTELLIGENCE BASED OPERATIONS (IBOs) CONTINUE TO BURST REMAINING SLEEPER CELLS.

• 3400 TERRORISTS KILLED, 837 HIDEOUTS FROM WHERE THEY WERE CARRYING OUT THEIR TERRORISTS ACTIVITIES DESTROYED.

• DURING LAST 18 MONTH OVER 13200 IBOs CARRIED OUT ACROSS THE COUNTRY IN WHICH 183 HARDCORE TERRORISTS KILLED, 21,193 ARRESTED. IBOs CONTINUE.

• SUCCESS CAME AT A HEAVY PRICE, 488 VALIANT OFFICERS AND MEN OF PAKISTAN ARMY, FRONTIER CORPS KPK, BALUCHISTAN, RANGERS SIND SACRIFICED THEIR LIVES AND 1914 INJURED IN OPERATION ZARB-E-AZB.

• TOTAL 11 MILITARY COURTS. 142 CASES REFERRED TO MILITARY COURTS. 55 CASES DECIDED, 87 CASES IN PROCESS. 31 HARDCORE TERRORISTS CONVICTED.

• SUPPORT OF ENTIRE NATION FOR ITS VALIANT ARMED FORCES AND RESOLVE EXPRESSED VS TERRORISM POST 16 DECEMBER ARMY PUBLIC SCHOOL, PESHAWAR ATTACK BEEN BEDROCK OF OPERATION ZARB-E-AZB.

• OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN SECURITY / LAW AND ORDER OWED TO OPERATION ZARB-E-AZB. FESTIVITIES, NATIONAL EVENTS CELEBRATED, STABILITY BEING ACHIEVED.

• A GLIMPSE OF SOME OF WEAPONS, AMMUNITION, EXPLOSIVE AND COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT RECOVERED DURING OPERATION ZARB-E-AZB IS ATTACHED.

INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT

ARMS CACHE RECOVERED

LANDMINES SEIZED

COMMUNICATION EQUIPMENT

SUICIDE VESTS

THE POSITIVES• TTP COMMAND AND CONTROL STRUCTURES AND

OTHER TERRORIST NETWORKS HAVE BEEN DESTROYED• THEIR RANKS AND FILES ARE IN DISARRAY• THEY ARE ON THE RUN & MANY HAVE ESCAPED TO

AFGHANISTAN• 90% AREA OF FATA HAS BEEN PURGED OF THE

TERRORISTS• NUMBER OF TERRORIST ATTACKS HAS DECREASED• WRIT OF THE GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN RESTORED BUT

THE CHALLENGE IS TO HOLD ON TO THESE AREAS

THE DOWNSIDE• LOSS OF SURPRISE: THE OPERATION WAS LAUNCHED AFTER A MONTH LONG OPEN

DEBATE WHICH WAS KEENLY COVERED BY THE MEDIA. THE VITAL ELEMENT OF SURPRISE WAS LOST WHICH ENABLED THE TERRORISTS TO TAKE PREEMPTIVE MEASURES. THE TOP LEADERSHIP OF TTP FLED TO SAFE HAVENS ACROSS THE BORDER INSIDE AFGHANISTAN IN NOORISTAN AND KUNAR PROVINCES. REPLICATING THE STRATEGY OF AFGHAN TALIBAN MOST OF THEM MELTED AWAY UNDER INITIAL MILITARY ONSLAUGHT BUT HAVE MANAGED TO FIGHT BACK AFTER SOMETIME.

• NO TIMELINE: THERE IS NO CLEAR CUT TIMELINE FOR ENDING OPERATIONS. THERE ARE ALSO NO ESTIMATES OF HOW LONG THE TALIBAN CAN CONTINUE ARMED RESISTANCE. AS LONG AS THEY ARE ALIVE THEY CAN CAUSE MISCHIEF IN SETTLED AREAS.

• AFGHAN FAILURE TO STOP THE TTP: THE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT HAS NEITHER BEEN ABLE TO EVICT THE TALIBAN FROM THE SAFE HAVENS IN THEIR TERRITORY NOR STOP ATTACKS BEING LAUNCHED FROM THEIR SIDE ON PAKISTANI TERRITORY.

• IDPs: ALMOST ONE MILLION IDPs/TDPs ARE STILL LANGUISHING IN CAMPS OR HAVE TAKEN SHELTER AT DIFFERENT PLACES. THEY ARE FACING ENDLESS MISERIES AND ARE AT MERCY OF VAGARIES OF EXTREME WEATHERS AND INHOSPITABLE CONDITIONS. SOCIAL FIBER OF NORTH WAZIRISTAN AND FATA IS SEVERELY SHATTERED. HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE TO COME BACK TO NORMALCY? OR WILL IT EVER?

IS OP ZARB E AZB A SUCCESS?

• IT HAS ACHIEVED SHORT TERM OBJECTIVES. • ULTIMATE SUCCESS IN COUNTER INSURGENCY TAKES A

LONG TIME. • IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO TOTALLY ELIMINATE

INSURGENT ACTIVITY.• IT WOULD BE CONSIDERED A SUCCESS IF TTP AND ITS

LEADERS ARE CO-OPTED, MARGINALIZED, OR SEPARATED FROM THE POPULATION.

• ANOTHER YARDSTICK OF SUCCESS WOULD BE THE DISARMAMENT, DEMOBILIZATION AND REINTEGRATION OF THE TALIBAN IN THE SOCIETY.

WAY FORWARD• OPERATION ZARB E AZB IS PRIMARILY A COUNTER

INSURGENCY (COIN) CAMPAIGN. IT IS A FIGHT AGAINST ASYMMETRICAL WARFARE, WHICH THE MILITANTS FIGHT UNDER AN IDEOLOGY, AND MOTIVE TO BRING SO CALLED POLITICAL AND SOCIAL CHANGE.

• ESTABLISHING SECURITY MUST BE SUPLEMENTED BY ECONOMIC AND GOVERNANCE ACTIVITY

• CIVILIAN ADMINISTRATIVE STRUCTURES MUST BE REVIVED AND THE BURDEN OF GOVERNANCE BE SHIFTED TO THEM IN AN ORDERLY MANNER.

• FATA MUST BE EITHER MADE SELF GOVERNING OR MERGED WITH KP THROUGH DUE PARLIAMENTARY PROCESS