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Georgetown 2011-12TSATs Neg- A$P Post, Deng, Ramakrishnan, Kejriwal, e!!

"""# %NT&RP AN"""

Te't( The %nite) States De!artment o* De*ense sho+l) not )e!lo theTrans*ormational Satellite #omm+ni ations S stem. /nstea), The %nite) StatesDe!artment o* De*ense sho+l) )e!lo the iasat-1 s stem.

Sol en -

ViaSats solve better than TSATsFreeman, 2011(Mike Freeman, reporter and writer for Sign n San !iego, "#ill $arlsbad %ompan&'s spa%e satellitestrateg& pa& off ), *+ne 2 , 2011, http-..www/signonsandiego/%om.news.2011. +n.2 .viasats spa%egamble.ViaSat 1 has more than 130 gigabits per se%ond of total thro+ghp+t, whi%h e4%eeds all %+rrent 5orth

Ameri%a 6nternet satellites %ombined/ "6t's not the tallest/ 6t's not the heaviest/ 7+t it is the most pa&loadintensive that we've b+ilt,) said *on !an%kwerth, dep+t& program manager for ViaSat 1 at Spa%e S&stems8oral/ "6t has the most hardware of an& satellite we've b+ilt so far/) n the fa%tor& floor at Spa%e S&stems8oral, te%hni%ians pie%e together abo+t 20 %omm+ni%ations satellites, in%l+ding 9+ghes5et's *+piter :

that %ompan&'s 100 gigabit per se%ond answer to ViaSat 1/ *+piter is s%hed+led for la+n%h in mid 2012/ 6ttakes three &ears to design and b+ild these satellites/ The& +ndergo e4tensive testing on giganti%, e4oti%ma%hines/ ;ver&thing is oversi, http-..www/defensenews/%om.stor&/php iD 1>E2?16f 100 gigabits of thro+ghp+t seems like an ama

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2N# #P S &N#

$o+nterplan solves %ase=B5ews#ire, 2011(=B5ews#ire, "ViaSat 1 5amed #inner in Tele%omm+ni%ations $ategor& for Te%hAmeri%a Fo+ndation

Ameri%an Te%hnolog& Awards) *+ne 1G, 2011, http-..www/prnewswire/%om.news releases.viasat 1named winner in tele%omm+ni%ations %ategor& for te%hameri%a fo+ndation ameri%an te%hnolog& awards12 012>>>/html$AB8S7A!, $alif/, *+ne 1G, 2011 .=B5ewswire. ViaSat 6n%/ (5asda@- VSAT has been named thewinner in the Tele%omm+ni%ations %ategor& for the Ameri%an Te%hnolog& Awards, whi%h bestows the onl&I7est fI awards re%ogni, http-..www/defensenews/%om.stor&/php iD 1>E2?1ViaSat has at least pi@+ed the H/S/ militar&Cs interest/ I#e are talking to the !efense !epartment abo+twhat it wo+ld take to have that kind of %apabilit& in their own fleet,I ViaSat $hief ;4e%+tive Mark!ankberg said d+ring a Ma& %onferen%e %all with investors/ I6tCs the right kind of satelliteI for man& of themilitar&Cs needs, Bi% VanderMe+len, a ViaSat vi%e president, said in an interview/ I#e are havingdis%+ssions with them, the&Cre %onsidering it, the&Cre thinking abo+t it/ bvio+sl&, weCre not +nder %ontra%twith them/I

=rivate %ompanies are ne%essar& to defense spending2

http://studio-5.financialcontent.com/prnews?Page=Quote&Ticker=VSAThttp://www.techamericafoundation.org/thetermanshttp://www.viasat.com/broadband-satellite-networks/viasat-1http://www.techamericafoundation.org/technology-governmenthttp://www.techamericafoundation.org/thetermanshttp://www.viasat.com/broadband-satellite-networks/viasat-1http://www.techamericafoundation.org/technology-governmenthttp://studio-5.financialcontent.com/prnews?Page=Quote&Ticker=VSAT

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$lark, 2011Stephen, "H/S/ militar& t+rns to private se%tor for SAT$ M %apa%it&,) Febr+rar&1?, 2011,http-..spa%eflightnow/%om.news.n1102.1?milsat%om.

The %.S. Air 3or e awar)e) si' om!anies more than $4.5 million in *an+ar& and Febr+ar& to st+)ommer ial sol+tions *or the militar 6s Ka-7an) an) 8-7an) mo7ile omm+ni ations nee)s,

a%%ording to ind+str& and government so+r%es / The De*ense De!artment is looking at ommer ial satelliteomm+ni ations s stems as tight *e)eral 7+)gets o+l) limit the Pentagon6s a7ilit to !ro +ree'!ensi e go ernment-owne) s!a e ra*t. The Air 3or e signe) st+) agreements with S!a eS stems9 oral, :oeing Satellite S stems /n ., r7ital S ien es #or!., /ntelsat, ;+ghes NetworkS stems /n ., an) %.S. S!a e. The %ontra%ts are worth more than /E million/ The st+dies en%ompass a+gmented aband and N band %apa%it&, %omm+ni%ations on the move for small terminals, and in%reased %omm+ni%ations s+pport to airborneintelligen%e, s+rveillan%e and re%onnassian%e platforms/ 6ntelsatCs %ontra%t %overs hosted pa&load opport+nities on %ommer%ial%omm+ni%ations satellites/ All of the agreements are for +nprote%ted, or benign, %omm+ni%ations/ The H/S/ government %+rrentl&leases abo+t O0 per%ent of its %omm+ni%ations %apa%it& from %ommer%ial so+r%es, a%%ording to Bi%hard =ino, dep+t& dire%tor of%omm+ni%ations and network programs at the =entagon/ IThe %ommer%ial marketpla%e for pro%+ring %ommer%ial satellitete%hnologies is mat+ring ver& rapidl&, and in some %ases ma& be e%lipsing what the militar& %an do,I =ino said at a %ommer%ialspa%e %onferen%e in #ashington last week/ =ino said government owned satellites sho+ld fo%+s on n+%lear hardened%omm+ni%ations, %ontested environments and anti amming %apabilities/ $ommer%ial satellites %an provide the b+lk of ever&da&%omm+ni%ations for the militar&/ Militar& satellite %omm+ni%ations, or M68SAT$ M, was ahead of %ommer%ial te%hnolog& 1E &earsago, b+t =ino said he believes in)+str an !ro i)e 7etter 7enign omm+ni ations than the go ernment

an to)a / I6 +sed to alwa&s think the role of %ommer%ial was to a+gment M68SAT$ M,I =ino said/ I6Cm +nlearning what 6 +sedto think 6 knew/ $ommer%ial is here to sta&/I The militar& has boosted its +sage of dedi%ated hosted pa&loads and p+r%hases ofgeneri% transponder bandwidth on %ommer%ial satellites in re%ent &ears/ 9osted pa&loads are government f+rnished instr+mentsatta%hed to satellites on an +nrelated mission/ 7oeing re%ommends more hosted pa&loads for the Air For%eCs M68SAT$ Ma+gmentation program, a%%ording to a %ompan& press release anno+n%ing its nearl& >2?,000 individ+al award/ I7oeing re%eivedorders for five hosted pa&loads in the past 1O months,I said $raig $ooning, vi%e president and general manager of 7oeing Spa%e L6ntelligen%e S&stems/ IThese are a win win for the militar&, whi%h needs the bandwidth, and the %ommer%ial SAT$ M servi%eproviders, whi%h benefit from a se%ondar& reven+e stream/ +r partnership with %ommer%ial satellite ind+str& and o+r lega%& ofgovernment s+pport will res+lt in man& %reative approa%hes to assisting this %o+ntr&Cs men and women in +niform/I The 7oeing ?02medi+m power or high power satellite design %o+ld host se%ondar& pa&loads/ 6nmarsat ordered three high power ?02 spa%e%raft in

A+g+st, and ea%h of the satellites will %arr& a hosted a band militar& pa&load, a%%ording to 7oeing/ 6ntelsat spa%e%raft have alsohosted H/S/ militar& %omm+ni%ations pa&loads/ =ino told an a+dien%e of ind+str& leaders last week the =entagon fa%es +p%omingde%isions on the e4pansion of M68SAT$ M programs, in%reasing %ommer%ial transponder leasing, hosted pa&loads, andp+r%hasing off the shelf %omm+ni%ations satellites from a s+pplier like an& other private se%tor operator/ The =entagon is also%onsidering leveraging long term %apital leases of satellites, whi%h offer the %ontrol advantages of b+&ing and is %heaper thanrepeatedl& e4tending short term transponder leases, =ino said/ The Air For%e is ordering more Advan%ed ;4tremel& 9igh Fre@+en%&and #ideband Jlobal SAT$ M satellites to ens+re militar& %omm+ni%ations %apa%it& thro+gh this de%ade after the %an%ellation ofthe Transformational Satellite $omm+ni%ations S&stem, or TSAT/ The most re%ent A;9F satellite %ontra%t award to 8o%kheed Martin$o/ was worth 1/ billion/ The spa%e%raft, named A;9F , wo+ld be read& to la+n%h in 201?, a%%ording to the %ontra%tanno+n%ement in !e%ember /

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2N# S &S /SR

%sing ommer ial satellites sol es /SR*ean, 2011(Jra%e V/ *ean, writer for the 5ational !efense, "Bemotel& =iloted Air%raft F+el !emand for Satellite7andwidth), *+l& 2011,http-..www/nationaldefensemaga

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"""GPS TRAD& 33 D/SAD"""

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1N# GPS TRAD& 33

J=S is f+nded now tho+gh moderni of the 9/ B/ 1 ?3 imposed a 0/2 per%ent res%ission(%+t a%ross all non militar& programs, on top of an& spe%ifi% red+%tions spelled o+t in the b+dget meas+re/

3+n)ing TSAT>s tra)es o** with GPSMatthews 10(#illiam, writer for !efense 5ews, IHSAF To 8a+n%h CFirst ofC Sats in 2010I, 3.11.10,www/defensenews/%om.stor&/php iD E3EEOE..avi

After &ears of prod+%tion dela&s aggravated b& %ost overr+ns and p+n%t+ated b& %apabilities %+ts , militar& satellite programsappear poised for a few positives this &ear/ Fo+r Ifirst ofI satellites are s%hed+led to be la+n%hed in 2010, said Jar&=a&ton, dep+t& +nderse%retar& of the Air For%e for spa%e programs- Q The f irst Advan%ed ;4tremel& 9igh Fre@+en%& (A;9F%omm+ni%ations satellite/ Q The first Spa%e 7ased Spa%e S+rveillan%e (S7SS satellite/ Q The first new generation Jlobal=ositioning S&stem (J=S satellite/ Q And the first perationall& Besponsive Spa%e ( BS satellite/ I6t appears that spa%eprograms have finall& t+rned the %orner,I said Sen/ 7en 5elson, %hairman of the Senate Armed Servi%es strategi% for%ess+b%ommittee/ #ell, thatCs one wa& to look at it/ 7+t the Jovernment A%%o+ntabilit& ffi%e has a differentperspe%tive/ The fo+r la+n%hes planned for this &ear %ome onl& after &ears of enormo+s %ost in%reases,deliver& dela&s, design problems and oversight and management weaknesses, the JA reported to 5elsonCss+b%ommittee Mar%h 10/ A;9F, for e4ample, is five &ears behind s%hed+le now, the JA sa&s/ An A;9F satellite is s%hed+led to bela+n%hed in September/ A E/G billion program when it began in 2001, A;9F now will %ost abo+t twi%e that m+%h and &ield one lesssatellite, the JA reported/ The new global positioning s&stem satellite, J=S 66F, is 3 R &ears late and will %ost 1/? billion instead of the ?30 million agreed +pon when work on it began a de%ade ago, the JA said/ S7SS has

morphed from an OOE million program to a 3 billion behemoth that is three &ears late and one satellite short/ BS 1, the first in a%lass of operationall& responsive satellites that are s+pposed to be read& to pop promptl& into spa%e to meet %+rrent militar& needs,is taking 2 months to b+ild and la+n%h/ And those are +st the fo+r satellites the Air For%e is to+ting as 2010 s+%%esses/ There isalso the Spa%e 7ased 6nfrared S&stem (S76BS , a gro+p of fo+r infrared satellites designed to warn of missile la+n%hes and performother re%onnaissan%e operations/ This 1>>G program has ballooned from abo+t 2 billion to more than 13/G billion toda&/ A8o%kheed Martin 5orthrop Jr+mman effort, S76BS is eight &ears late/ Two satellites have been la+n%hed so far, b+t hardwaredefe%ts have sin%e been dis%overed on the first one, the JA said/ And thereCs MH S, the 5av&Cs mobile +ser ob e%tive s&stem, anarra& of five %omm+ni%ations satellites that are intended to s+ppl& the H/S/ militar& with %ell phone like %omm+ni%ations %apabilitiesaro+nd the world/ MH S is now 21 months late, %reating the possibilit& for %omm+ni%ations degradation after ne4t *an+ar&, theJA said/ MH S %osts, tho+gh, have fallen slightl&/ The& remain in the 1 billion neighborhood / 6t took relativel& rare a%tion

b& the !efense !epartment to get to this relativel& improved state in its satellite programs- Thedepartment killed programs that were performing even worse, said $ristina $haplain, JA Cs dire%tor ofa%@+isition and so+r%ing management/ A &ear ago, !efense Se%retar& Bobert Gates !+lle) the !l+g on TSAT ,the transformational %omm+ni%ations satellite/ Air For%e offi%ials said the programCs 2G billion pri%e tagand te%hni%al %omple4it& was led to its downfall/ That the G &ear old program was alread& fo+r &ears latedidnCt help/ That and other %an%ellations I alle iate) om!etition *or *+n)ing and ma& have allowed the!efense !epartment to fo%+s on fi4ing problems and implementing reforms rather than taking on new,%omple4 and potentiall& higher risk efforts,I $haplain said/ 6mprovements to the satellite programs have not solved all ofthe militar&Cs woes with spa%e/ An emerging problem is rising la+n%h %osts/ The %oming retirement of H/S/ spa%e sh+ttles this &earand the proposed %an%ellation of $onstellation program, the sh+ttlesC follow on, seem %ertain to p+sh la+n%h %osts +p, said Sen/!avid Vitter, B 8a/ #ith 5ASA %+tting ba%k as a b+&er of solid ro%ket motors and other prop+lsion s&stems, the %ost of thoses&stems %o+ld do+ble, =a&ton said/ ther fa%tors are also p+shing la+n%h %osts +p/ The s+ppl& of ro%kets

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alread& in inventor& is being depleted, meaning that new ones will have to be bo+ght/ 7+t fewer ann+alb+&s are p+shing %osts +p, =a&ton said/ There are fewer %ommer%ial %+stomers, whi%h is %a+sing thes+b%ontra%tor b+siness base to deteriorate, and that is p+shing %osts +p/

@o)erni=ing the GPS is ke to s!a e lea)ershi! it t+rns the ase!inerman G(Ta&lor !inerman is an a+thor and o+rnalist, I#ill $hina %ompel the development of J=S I, G.1>.0G,www/thespa%ereview/%om.arti%le.G 3.1..avi

The $hinese are not part of an&thing like ;SA or the ;H and are th+s not s+b e%t to an& of the press+resthat led Fran%e to "be reasonable)/ 6t will be @+ite a while before the ;+ropeans f+ll& sort o+t the impli%ations of this for their s&stem, b+t it is obvio+s that $hina has +sed its role in Jalileo to gain both knowledge and e4pertise in militar&satellite navigation te%hnolog& from ;+rope and is now going to make good +se of those lessons/ The;+ropeans, who %laimed that the& %o+ld separate the %ivil from the militar& aspe%ts of this te%hnolog& and onl& share the nonoffensive parts with $hina, are left with egg on their fa%e / $hina's e4isting 7eido+ navigation network is a %l+ms&s&stem based on three satellites, ( two operational and one reserve in geos&n%hrono+s orbit, la+n%hed between 2000 and2003/ 6ts militar& +ses have been limited, b+t it is s+spe%ted that the& in%l+de providing g+idan%e for the 6$7Ms $hinahas aimed at HS targets/ Above all, this s&stem has given $hina hands on operational e4perien%e withsatellite navigation hardware/ $ombined with the sophisti%ated s%ien%e and engineering data the& have been able to obtain

from ;+rop e, the& are now in a position to begin work on their own militar& satellite navigation s&stem/ A+stralia , the HS, *apan, and 6ndia %an thank the good folks at ;SA and the ;H for the s+bse@+ent in%reasedinstabilit&:or worse:in the region/ The !ro!ose) #om!ass s stem will not 7e o!erational *or a longtime to ome, so the %S has time to a)j+st its own !lans to !re ent the #hinese s stem *romha ing the a7ilit to harm %S militar o!erations. This will mean that the %+rrent J=S 3 program willhave to be %+rtailed or modified be&ond re%ognition/ The generation after ne4t of J=S satellites will haveto in%l+de m+%h more rob+st methods for over%oming or avoiding enem& interferen%e/ These %o+ldin%l+de not onl& s+%h tried and tr+e %on%epts as fre@+en%& hopping and pse+do random b+rsttransmissions, b+t also spa%e to ;arth laser %omm+ni%ations with navigation information embedded inordinar& militar& %omm+ni%ations/ 6n thelong term this %o+ld %reate some interesting opport+nities for theTransformational Satellite (T Sat %omm+ni%ations program to work with the designers of the f+t+re J=S s&stem/5avigation and %omm+ni%ation s&stems %omplement one another ni%el&, something the $hinese havealread& fig+red o+t sin%e the 7eido+ s&stem has a limited %omm+ni%ations %apabilit&/ The HS ma& haveto rethink the whole of its f+t+re, post 2020 militar& spa%e ar%hite%t+re/ Sin%e f+t+re militar& spa%eoperations will likel& take pla%e thro+gho+t the ;arth Moon s&stem, an& f+t+re navigation s&stem will haveto %over this area/ Some satellites in s+%h a s&stem will have to be pla%ed be&ond the Moon's orbit, whileothers will be in %isl+nar spa%e/ S+%h a s&stem will also have the opport+nit& to take advantage of the nat+rall& o%%+rring navigationsignals given off b& the si4teen p+lsars that %an be re%eived in o+r part of the gala4&/ 6n his 1>>3 spee%h presenting the 5obel =ri,http-..www/real%learpoliti%s/%om.arti%les.200?.0?.end of dreams ret+rn of histor/html

This is a good thing, and it sho+ld %ontin+e to be a primar& goal of Ameri%an foreign poli%& to perpet+ate this relativel& benign international%onfig+ration of power/ The +nipolar order with the Hnited States as the predominant power is +navoidabl& riddled with flaws and %ontradi%tions/ 6t

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Georgetown 2011-12TSATs Neg- A$P Post, Deng, Ramakrishnan, Kejriwal, e!!inspires fears and ealo+sies/ The Hnited States is not imm+ne to error, like all other nations, and be%a+se of its si

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entered a region, whether for pra%ti%al or idealisti% reasons, the& are remarkabl& slow to withdraw from it+ntil the& believe the& have s+bstantiall& transformed it in their own image/ The& profess indifferen%e tothe world and %laim the& +st want to be left alone even as the& seek dail& to shape the behavior ofbillions of people aro+nd the globe/ The ostling for stat+s and infl+en%e among these ambitio+s nationsand wo+ld be nations is a se%ond defining feat+re of the new post $old #ar international s&stem/5ationalism in all its forms is ba%k , if it ever went awa&, and so is international %ompetition for power ,

infl+en%e, honor, and stat+s/ Ameri%an predominan%e prevents these rivalries from intensif&ing itsregional as well as its global predominan%e/ #ere the Hnited States to diminish its infl+en%e in theregions where it is %+rrentl& the strongest power, the other nations wo+ld settle disp+tes as great andlesser powers have done in the past- sometimes thro+gh diploma%& and a%%ommodation b+t oftenthro+gh %onfrontation and wars of var&ing s%ope, intensit&, and destr+%tiveness/ ne novel aspe%t of s+%ha m+ltipolar world is that most of these powers wo+ld possess n+%lear weapons / That %o+ld make warsbetween them less likel&, or it %o+ld simpl& make them more %atastrophi%/ 6t is eas& b+t also dangero+s to +nderestimate therole the Hnited States pla&s in providing a meas+re of stabilit& in the world even as it also disr+pts st abilit&/ For instan%e, the Hnited States is the dominant naval powerever&where, s+%h that other nations %annot %ompete with it even in their home waters/ The& either happil& or gr+dgingl& allow the Hnited States 5av& to be the g+arantor ofinternational waterwa&s and trade ro+tes, of international a%%ess to markets and raw materials s+%h as oil/ ;ven when the Hnited States engages in a war, it is able to pla& itsrole as g+ardian of the waterwa&s/ 6n a more gen+inel& m+ltipolar world, however, it wo+ld not/ 5ations wo+ld % ompete for naval dominan%e at least in their own regions and

possibl& be&ond/ $onfli%t between nations wo+ld involve str+ggles on the o%eans as well as on land/ Armedembargos, of the kind +sed in #orld #ar i and other ma or %onfli%ts, wo+ld disr+pt trade flows in a wa&that is now impossible/ S+%h order as e4ists in the world rests not merel& on the goodwill of peoples b+t on a fo+ndation provided b& Ameri%an power/ ;ven the;+ropean Hnion, that great geopoliti%al mira%le, owes its fo+nding to Ameri%an power, for witho+t it the ;+ropean nations after # orld #ar ii wo+ld never have felt se%+re eno+gh

to reintegrate Jerman&/ Most ;+ropeans re%oil at the tho+ght, b+t even toda& ;+rope Cs stabilit& depends on the g+arantee , howeverdistant and one hopes +nne%essar&, that the Hnited States %o+ld step in to %he%k an& dangero+sdevelopment on the %ontinent/ 6n a gen+inel& m+ltipolar world, that wo+ld not be possible witho+t renewing the danger of worl) war. =eople who believe greater e@+alit& among nations wo+ld be preferable to the present Ameri%an predominan%e oftens+%%+mb to a basi% logi%al falla%&/ The& believe the order the world en o&s t oda& e4ists independentl& of Ameri%an power/ The& imagine that in a world where Ameri%an powerwas diminished, the aspe%ts of international order that the& like wo+ld remain in pla%e/ 7+t that Cs not the wa& it works/ 6nternational order does not rest on ideas and instit+tions/6t is shaped b& %onfig+rations of power/ The international order we know toda& refle%ts the distrib+tion of power in t he world sin%e #orld #ar ii, and espe%iall& sin%e the end ofthe $old #ar/ A different %onfig+ration of power, a m+ltipolar world in whi%h the poles were B+ssia, $hina, the Hnited States, 6ndia, and ;+rope, wo+ld prod+%e its own kind oforder, with different r+les and norms refle%ting the interests of the powerf+l states that wo+ld have a hand in shaping it/ #o+ld that international order be an improvement=erhaps for 7ei ing and Mos%ow it wo+ld/ 7+t it is do+btf+l that it wo+ld s+it t he tastes of enlightenment liberals in the Hnited States and ;+rope/ The %+rrent order, of %o+rse, is

not onl& far from perfe%t b+t also offers no g+arantee against ma or %onfli%t among the worldCs great powers/ ;ven +nder the +mbrella of +nipolarit&,regional %onfli%ts involving the large powers ma& er+pt/ #ar %o+ld er+pt between $hina and Taiwan anddraw in both the Hnited States and *apan/ #ar %o+ld er+pt between B+ssia and Jeorgia , for%ing the HnitedStates and its ;+ropean allies to de%ide whether to intervene or s+ffer the %onse@+en%es of a B+ssian vi%tor&/ $onfli%t between 6ndia and=akistan remains possible, as does %onfli%t between 6ran and 6srael or other Middle ;astern states/These , too, %o+ld draw in other great powers , in%l+ding the Hnited States/ S+%h %onfli%ts ma& be

+navoidable no matter what poli%ies the Hnited States p+rs+es/ 7+t the& are more likel& to er+pt if theHnited States weakens or withdraws from its positions of regional dominan%e/ This is espe%iall& tr+e in;ast Asia, where most nations agree that a reliable Ameri%an power has a stabili

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wo+ld not be followed b& a dimin+tion of other e4ternal infl+en%es/ ne %o+ld e4pe%t deeper involvementb& both $hina and B+ssia, if onl& to se%+re their interests/ 1O And one %o+ld also e4pe%t the more powerf+l states of the region, parti%+larl& 6ran, to e4pandand fill the va%++m/ 6t is do+btf+l that an& Ameri%an administration wo+ld vol+ntaril& take a%tions that %o+ld shift the balan%e of power in the Middle ;ast f+rther toward B+ssia,$hina, or 6ran/ The world hasn Ct %hanged that m+%h/ An Ameri%an withdrawal from 6ra@ will not ret+rn things to InormalI or to a new kind of stabilit& in the region/ 6t will prod+%ea new instabilit&, one likel& to draw the Hnited States ba%k in again/ The alternative to Ameri%an regional predominan%e in the Middle ;ast and elsewhere is not a new regionalstabilit&/ 6n an era of b+rgeoning nationalism, the f+t+re is likel& to be one of intensified %ompetition among nations and nationalist movements/ !iffi%+lt as it ma& be to e4tend

Ameri%an predominan%e into the f+t+re, no one sho+ld imagine that a red+%tion of Ameri%an power or a retra%tion of Ameri%an infl+en%e and global involvement will provide aneasier path/

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AT( GA / &

Jalileo won't trade off with J=S!inerman (Ta&lor !inerman is editor and p+blisher of Spa%e;@+it&/%om, I#hat's the fre@+en%&, *a%@+es I, 3.1.01 ,

www/thespa%ereview/%om.arti%le.10?.1..aviThe ; +ropean S pa%e Agen%&and the ;H have de%ided to b+ild a satellite navigation s&stem, similar to theHS 5avstar.J=S s&stem, %alled Jalileo/ =+bli%l&, the& %laimed that the& were doing so be%a+se the&distr+sted the HS, and feared that the =entagon might somehow disr+pt the J=S signal/ The& also %laimedthat the& needed to b+ild this s&stem in order to prote%t ;+rope's independen%e from the HS/ Their plan, as it now stands, is tola+n%h two test satellites that will begin transmitting, on fre@+en%ies allo%ated to the ;+ropeans b& the 6nternationalTele%omm+ni%ations Hnion, in 200G/ 6n 200O, the& hope to begin la+n%hing the first of 30 operational navigation satellites / The +stanno+n%ed agreement between the ;+ropean Hnion and the HS %on%erning the fre@+en%ies to be +sedb& Jalileo has been portra&ed as a win win sol+tion/ 6n fa%t, it is a n almost total vi%tor& for the 7+shadministration and a serio+s defeat for Fran%e's long term effort to %reate a ;+ropean militar&organi

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%N/E%&N&SS( @ D&RN/FAT/ N ;/G;

3+n)ing *or GPS is sta7le an) *o +se) on mo)erni=ationMa(*ames Ma, www/marshall/org.pdf.materials.?20/pdf..aviJ=S satellites provide important navigation, positioning, and timing information for the H/S/ militar& and %ivilians/ A f+ll& operational J=S %onstellation %onsists of 2 satellites %onstantl& in orbit / The ne4t generation J=S 666satellites are designed to withstand amming and interferen%e meas+res/ F+rther B!TL; is allo%atedtoward %o+ntering meas+res designed to blind v+lnerable J=S satellites/ The initial J=S 666 la+n%h isplanned for 201 / The =resident re@+ested >2?/O million for F 2010 with almost all f+nding going towardB!TL;/ This fig+re represents a small in%rease of 3/ million ( 0/3 over 200> $ongressional appropriations /The mone& will f+nd satellite la+n%hes, integrations of replenishment satellites and %ontin+ed %onstellationdevelopment/ B!TL; on the J=S 666 variant will remain at high levels/1O

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%N/E%&N&SS( :R/NK

GPS is 7eing +t now 7+t will s+r i e this will *or e tra)eo**s7rinton 11(T+rner, writer for Spa%e 5ews, I9o+se Appropriators Slam HSAF Satellite 7lo%k 7+& =roposalI, G.13.11,www/spa%enews/%om.militar&.110G13 appropriators slam +saf satellite blo%k b+& proposal/html..avi#AS965JT5 : Members o f the H/S/ 9o+se of Bepresentatives Appropriations $ommittee on *+ne 1 ares%hed+led to mark +p a defense spending bill that wo+ld %+t f+nding for the J=S program and la+n%hvehi%les and pla%e restri%tions on an Air For%e proposal to b+& a pair of se%+re %omm+ni%ations satellites/The 9o+se version of the 2012 defense appropriation bill s+pports the %on%ept of b+&ing m+ltiplesatellites at a time in order to keep %osts down/ 7+t detailed information on the Air For%e's ;vol+tionar& A%@+isitionfor Spa%e ;ffi%ien%& (;AS; strateg& is "woef+ll& la%king,) a%%ording to lang+age in the defense s+b%ommittee'sreport that was released *+ne 13/ $ongress for several &ears has +rged the =entagon to %onsider blo%kb+&s of satellites/ The Air For%e in Febr+ar& s+bmitted its 2012 b+dget re@+est that so+ght permission to b+& the fifth and si4th

Advan%ed ;4tremel& 9igh Fre@+en%& (A;9F %omm+ni%ations satellites from 8o%kheed Martin Spa%e S&stems of S+nn&vale, $alif/To do so, the Air For%e asked $ongress provide advan%e appropriations : f+nding that wo+ld be set at a %ertain level for the ne4tseveral &ears : to avoid the b+dget fl+%t+ations that %an o%%+r from &ear to &ear/ Following the lead of 9o+se a+thori

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/NK( # ST

TSATs %ost billions$haplain >($ristina T/ $haplain, !ire%tor of A%@+isition and So+r%ing Management at JA , I! ! Fa%es S+bstantial$hallenges in !eveloping 5ew Spa%e S&stemsI, E.20.0>, www/gao/gov.new/items.d0>?0Et/pdf..avi6am pleased to be here toda& to dis%+ss the !epartment of !efense's (! ! spa%e a%@+isitions/ The topi% of toda&'s hearing is%riti%all& important/ !espite a growing investment in spa%e, the ma orit& of large s%ale a%@+isition programs in ! !'s spa%e portfoliohave e4perien%ed problems d+ring the past two de%ades that have driven +p %ost and s%hed+les and in%reased te%hni%al risks/ The %ost res+lting from a%@+isition problems along with the ambitio+s nat+re of spa%e programs hasres+lted in %an%ellations of programs that were e4pe%ted to re@+ire investments of tens of billions ofdollars, in%l+ding the re%entl& proposed %an%ellation of the Transformational Satellite $omm+ni%ations S&stem (TSAT /Moreover, along with the %ost in%reases , man& programs are e4perien%ing signifi%ant s%hed+le dela&s:at least ?&ears:res+lting in potential %apabilit& gaps in areas s+%h as positioning, navigation, and timingK missilewarningK and weather monitoring/

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/NK( T

$an%ellation of TSAT's sent reso+r%es and te%h towards J=S:the plan reverses thatBe+ters >(IHS Air For%e la+n%h CharvestC programI, E.12.0>, www/independent/%o/+k.life st&le.gadgets and

te%h.news.+s air for%e la+n%h harvest program 1GO3E30/html..aviThe HS Air For%e &esterda& said it was working with 8o%kheed Martin $orp and 7oeing $o to IharvestI forf+t+re +se an& government owned propert& or gro+nd stations developed for a %an%elled satellite%omm+ni%ations program/ Jar& =a&ton, dep+t& +nderse%retar& of the Air For%e for spa%e programs, told reporters the AirFor%e had alread& spent 2/E billion d+ring two to three &ears of initial developmental work on theTransformational Satellite (TSAT program, and hoped to +se some of the te%hnologies developed forTSAT in f+t+re programs/ 9e said the programCs original mission to provide follow on prote%ted satellite %omm+ni%ations forsele%ted H/S/ government %omm+ni%ations, in%l+ding the presidentCs abilit& to order a n+%lear atta%k remained Iabsol+tel& %riti%al/II#eCre never going to be o+t of that b+siness/ #eCre not going to ba%k awa& from that ob,I the Air For%e offi%ial said/ 8o%kheed and7oeing, whi%h have been %ompeting for the TSAT %ontra%t, had both been awarded risk red+%tion %ontra%ts to ens+re that thete%hnologies involved were mat+re on%e the government was read& to award a %ontra%t to one winner/ !efense Se%retar& Bober tJates last month anno+n%ed the program wo+ld be %an%elled/ The program had alread& been s%aledba%k from its initial ambitio+s goals/ 5ow the Air For%e plans to b+& more Advan%ed ;4tremel& 9ighFre@+en%& (A;9F satellites, b+ilt b& 8o%kheed, and more #ideband Jlobal SAT$ MM (#JS satellites,

b+ilt b& 7oeing/ The Air For%e is working hard Ito %olle%t what is rightf+ll& the governmentCs so that we %ando %ompetent planning for potential f+t+re evol+tions of other s&stems,I =a&ton said/ 9e said the Air For%e wo+ldseek to take %ontrol over ever&thing from intelle%t+al propert& developed +nder its pre development %ontra%ts with 8o%kheed and7oeing, to gro+nd stations to networking e@+ipment/ The =entagonCs fis%al 2010 b+dget proposal in%l+des 11/1 billion for spa%eprograms, a 3 per%ent rise from fis%al 200>/ =a&ton said an in%reasing area of fo%+s was prote%tion of H/S/ satellites in spa%e, andspa%e sit+ational awareness efforts to better tra%k ob e%ts in spa%e, predi%t possible %ollisions and +nderstand an& problems thatarise/ The b+dget proposal in%l+des ? billion for satellites, in%l+ding 1/O billion for the A;9F satellite program and 1/ billion forla+n%hing satellites into spa%e/ The proposal also in%l+des 30O million for spa%e sit+ational awareness s&stems/ The b+dget doesnot in%l+de man& new starts, b+t =a&ton said the Air For%e e4pe%ted to make de%isions within the ne4t &ear on how to meet growingdemand for spa%e based radar, and wo+ld %ontin+e with additional A;9F and #JS pro%+rement/ 9e said broad iss+es asso%iatedwith spa%e programs wo+ld be addressed d+ring a %ongressionall& mandated spa%e post+re review that was being done in tandemwith the =entagonCs U+adrennial !efense Beview/ 9e said 8o%kheedCs A;9F program e4perien%ed a disappointing Isignifi%antn+mber of pie%e part fail+resI on its first satellite, b+t those iss+es had been resolved for the se%ond satellite/ The first satellite isd+e to begin thermal va%++m testing soon and sho+ld be read& for la+n%h in September 2010 / =a&ton said work was goingwell on the Jlobal =ositioning S&stem follow on satellites, and the Air For%e planned to award a %ontra%tthis s+mmer for a ne4t generation gro+nd %ontrol s&stem/ 5orthrop Jr+mman $orp and Ba&theon $o are%ompeting for the %ontra%t/

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AT( & SA & @ N&

;ven with %ost red+%tions TSATs +ndermines new !o! programs$haplain ?($ristina T/ $haplain, !ire%tor A%@+isition and So+r%ing Management Team, JA , IA%tions 5eeded to

;4pand and S+stain Hse of 7est =ra%ti%esI, .1>.0?, www/gao/gov.prod+%ts.JA 0? ?30T..avi! !Cs spa%e s&stem a%@+isitions have e4perien%ed problems over the past several de%ades that havedriven +p %osts b& h+ndreds of millions, even billions of dollars, stret%hed s%hed+les b& &ears, andin%reased performan%e risks/ ! ! has re%ogni

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AT( N TRAD& 33

;ven if the& don't tradeoff the& %a+se dela&s and water down both programs:t+rns the%ase$haplain >($ristina T/ $haplain, !ire%tor of A%@+isition and So+r%ing Management, JA , ISpa%e A%@+isitions- ! !Fa%es S+bstantial $hallenges in !eveloping 5ew Spa%e S&stemsI, E.20.0>, www/gao/gov.prod+%ts.JA0> ?0ET..avi!espite a growing investment in spa%e, the ma orit& of large s%ale a%@+isition programs in the !epartment of !efenseCs ( ! ! spa%e portfolio have e4perien%ed problems d+ring the past two de%ades that have driven+p %ost and s%hed+les and in%reased te%hni%al risks/ The %ost res+lting from a%@+isition problems alongwith the ambitio+s nat+re of spa%e programs has res+lted in %an%ellations of programs that weree4pe%ted to re@+ire investments of tens of billions of dollars/ Along with the %ost in%reases, man&programs are e4perien%ing signifi%ant s%hed+le dela&s at least ? &ears res+lting in potential %apabilit& gapsin areas s+%h as positioning, navigation, and timingK missile warningK and weather monitoring/ This testimon& fo%+ses on (1 the%ondition of spa%e a%@+isitions, (2 %a+sal fa%tors, and (3 re%ommendations for better positioning programs and ind+str& fors+%%ess/ 6n preparing this testimon&, JA relied on its bod& of work in spa%e and other programs, in%l+ding previo+sl& iss+ed JAreports on assessments of individ+al spa%e programs, %ommon problems affe%ting spa%e s&stem a%@+isitions, and ! !Csa%@+isition poli%ies/ ;stimated %osts for ma or spa%e a%@+isition programs have in%reased b& abo+t 10/>

billion from initial estimates for fis%al &ears 200O thro+gh 2013/ 6n several %ases, ! ! has had to %+tba%k on @+antit& and %apabilit& in the fa%e of es%alating %osts/Several %a+ses behind the %ost growth and relatedproblems %onsistentl& stand o+t/ First , ! ! starts more weapon programs than it %an afford, reatingom!etition *or *+n)ing that, in !art, en o+rages low ost estimating an) o!timisti s he)+ling /

Se%ond, ! ! has tended to start its spa%e programs before it has the ass+ran%e that the %apabilities it isp+rs+ing %an be a%hieved within available reso+r%es/ JA and others have identified a n+mber of press+resasso%iated with the %ontra%tors that develop spa%e s&stems for the government that have hampered the a%@+isition pro%ess,in%l+ding ambitio+s re@+irements and shortages of te%hni%al e4pertise in the workfor%e/ Altho+gh ! ! has taken a n+mber ofa%tions to address the problems on whi%h JA has reported, additional leadership and s+pport are still needed toens+re that reforms that ! ! has beg+n will take hold/

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/9 ( #; PP/NG : #K

GPS !rograms are on the ho!!ing 7lo k there are no sa re) ows6gnati+s 11(!avid 6gnati+s, s&ndi%ated %ol+mnist for the !ail& Star, I5o sa%red %ows in %+tting H/S/ defense

spendingI, 1.2?.11, www/dail&star/%om/lb. pinion.$ol+mnist.*an.2?.5o sa%red %ows in %+tting HSdefense spending/ash4Wa4

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/@PA#T( ;%NG&R

J=S solves h+nger !inerman (Ta&lor !inerman is editor and p+blisher of Spa%e;@+it&/%om, I#hat's the fre@+en%&, *a%@+es I, 3.1.01 ,

www/thespa%ereview/%om.arti%le.10?.1..aviJalileo will probabl& now go ahead, tho+gh the Fren%h ma& lose their enth+siasm for f+nding i t/ The idea that ;+ropeanprivate enterprise will make a legitimate %apitalisti% investment in the s&stem was never reall& in the %ards/ Toda&, the ;+ropeansare tr&ing to get nations s+%h as $hina, 6srael, and 7ra

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/@PA#T( N @

GPS )e elo!ment ke to the e onom=ham 11(5am ! =ham, =h! and Managing =artner of 5!= $ons+lting Jro+p, =ham is also ad +n%t professor atthe Jeorge #ashington Hniversit&, where he tea%hes grad+ate %o+rses in monetar& e%onomi%s,international trade and finan%e, ma%roe%onomi%s, and mi%roe%onomi%s, IThe ;%onomi% 7enefits of$ommer%ial J=S Hse in the H/S/ and The $osts of =otential !isr+ptionI, *+ne 2011,www/saveo+rgps/org.pdf.J=S Beport *+ne 22 2011/pdf..aviThe %ommer%ial stakes are high / The downstream ind+stries that rel& on professional and high pre%ision J=Ste%hnolog& for their own b+siness operations wo+ld fa%e serio+s )isr+!tion to their o!erations sho+l)inter*eren e o +r, an) %.S. lea)ershi! an) inno ation wo+l) s+**er / Altho+gh re%reational and militar&appli%ations for J=S e@+ipment are larger in terms of e@+ipment sales vol+me, %ommer%ial appli%ations generate a large share ofe%onomi% benefits for so%iet&/ As shown later in this report , the dire%t e%onomi% benefits of J=S te%hnolog& on%ommer%ial J=S +sers are estimated to be over G?/G billion per &ear in the Hnited States/ 6n addition,J=S te%hnolog& %reates dire%t and indire%t positive spillover effe%ts, s+%h as emission red+%tions fromf+el savings, health and safet& gains in the work pla%e, time savings, ob %reation, higher ta4 reven+es,and improved p+bli% safet& and national defense/ Toda&, there are more than 3/3 million obs that rel& on J=Ste%hnolog&, in%l+ding appro4imatel&130,000 obs in J=S man+fa%t+ring ind+stries and 3/2 million in the downstream %ommer%ialJ=S intensive ind+stries/ The %ommer%ial J=S adoption rate is growing and e4pe%ted to %ontin+e growing a%ross ind+stries as highfinan%ial ret+rns have been demonstrated/ $onse@+entl&, J=S te%hnolog& will %reate 122/ billion benefits per &earand will dire%tl& affe%t more than E/O million obs in the downstream %ommer%ial J=S intensive ind+strieswhen penetration of J=S te%hnolog& rea%hes 100 per%ent in the %ommer%ial J=S intensive ind+stries/ Asis the %ase in all other innovative ind+stries , the J=S ind+str& dire%tl& %reates obs and e%onomi% a%tivities, whi%hsp+r e%onomi% growth/ ;viden%e shows that innovative ind+stries, s+%h as the J=S ind+str&, %reate bothhigh and low skilled obs d+ring e%onomi% e4pansions and downt+rns, pa& their emplo&ees higher thannational average wages, raise o+tp+t and sales per emplo&ee, in%rease H/S/ %ompetitiveness, whi%h isrefle%ted in in%reased e4ports and red+%ed H/S/ trade defi%its, and spend large s+ms on BL! and %apitalinvestment/ 6n addition to %reating these dire%t e%onomi% benefits , innovative ind+stries %reate prod+%tivit& benefitsto the downstream ind+stries, in%l+ding in%reased sales, profits, and investment ret+rns/ ;mpiri%al st+dieshave shown s+stained prod+%tivit& benefits s+pport f+rther growth and ob %reation in downstreamind+stries and the H/S/ e%onom& as a whole/

& onomi olla!se lea)s to glo7al n+ lear warFriedberg L S%hoenfeld 0O of politi%s and international relations O [Aaron Friedberg is a professor at Princeton University'sWoodrow Wilson School. Gabriel Schoenfeld, senior editor of o!!entary, is a visiting scholarat the Witherspoon "nstit#te in Princeton, $.%., & he (angers of a (i!inished A!erica,) WallStreet %o#rnal, *cbtober + , +-- , http/00online.ws1.co!0article0S2 ++344-53- +64+45 .ht!l7

#ith the global finan%ial s&stem in serio+s tro+ble, is Ameri%aCs geostrategi% dominan%e likel& to diminish6f so, what wo+ld that mean ne immediate impli%ation of the %risis that began on #all Street andspread a%ross the world is that the primar& instr+ments of H/S/ foreign poli%& will be %rimped/ The ne4tpresident will fa%e an entirel& new and adverse fis%al position/ ;stimates of this &earCs federal b+dget defi%it alread& show that it has +mped 23?billion from last &ear, to 0? billion/ #ith families and b+sinesses h+rting, there will be %alls for vario+s and e4pensive domesti% relief programs/ 6n thefa%e of this onr+shing river of red ink, both 7ara%k bama and *ohn M%$ain have been rel+%tant to la& o+t what portions of their programmati% wish listthe& might defer or delete/ nl& *oe 7iden has s+ggested a possible red+%tion foreign aid/ This wo+ld be one of the few pop+lar %+ts, b+t inb+dgetar& terms it is a mere grain of sand/ Still, Sen/ 7idenCs %omment hints at where we ma& be headed- toward a ma or red+%tionin Ameri%aCs world role, and perhaps even a new era of finan%iall& ind+%ed isolationism / =ress+res to %+t defensespending, and to dodge the %ost of waging two wars, alread& intense before this %risis, are likel& to mo+nt/ !espite the s+%%ess of the s+rge, the war in6ra@ remains deepl& +npop+lar/ =re%ipito+s withdrawal attra%tive to a si

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%ontin+ing on their belli%ose paths, while =akistan and Afghanistan are progressing smartl& down the roadto %haos/ B+ssiaCs new militan%& and $hinaCs seemingl& relentless rise also give %a+se for %on%ern/ 6f

Ameri%a now tries to p+ll ba%k from the world stage, it will leave a dangero+s power va%++m/ Thestabili30s, when global trade and finan%e gro+nd nearl& to a halt, the

pea%ef+l demo%ra%ies failed to %ooperate, and aggressive powers led b& the remorseless fanati%s whorose +p on the %rest of e%onomi% disaster e4ploited their divisions/ Toda& we r+n the risk that rog+e statesma& %hoose to be%ome ever more re%kless with their n+%lear to&s, +st at o+r moment of ma4im+mv+lnerabilit&/ The aftersho%ks of the finan%ial %risis will almost %ertainl& ro%k o+r prin%ipal strategi%%ompetitors even harder than the& will ro%k +s/ The dramati% free fall of the B+ssian sto%k market hasdemonstrated the fragilit& of a state whose e%onomi% performan%e hinges on high oil pri%es, now drivendown b& the global slowdown/ $hina is perhaps even more fragile, its e%onomi% growth depending heavil&on foreign investment and a%%ess to foreign markets/ 7oth will now be %onstri%ted, infli%ting e%onomi%pain and perhaps even sparking +nrest in a %o+ntr& where politi%al legitima%& rests on progress in thelong mar%h to prosperit& / 5one of this is good news if the a+thoritarian leaders of these %o+ntries seek to divert attention from internaltravails with e4ternal advent+res/ As for o+r demo%rati% friends , the present %risis %omes when man& ;+ropean nations arestr+ggling to deal with de%ades of anemi% growth, s%leroti% governan%e and an impending demographi%%risis/ !espite its past d&namism, *apan fa%es similar %hallenges/ 6ndia is still in the earl& stages of itsemergen%e as a world e%onomi% and geopoliti%al power/ #hat does this all mean There is no s+bstit+tefor Ameri%a on the world stage/ The %hoi%e we have before +s is between the potentiall& disastro+s effe%ts of disengagement and the stiff pri%e tag of %ontin+ed Ameri%an leadership/ Are we +p for the task The Ameri%an e%onom& has histori%all& demonstrated remarkable resilien%e/ +rmarket oriented ideolog&, entreprene+rial %+lt+re, fle4ible instit+tions and favorable demographi% profile sho+ld serve +s well in whatever trials lieahead/ The Ameri%an people, too, have shown reserves of resolve when properl& led/ 7+t e4perien%e after the $old #ar era poorl& arti%+lated ande4e%+ted poli%ies, divisive domesti% debates and rising anti Ameri%anism in at least some parts of the world appear to have left these reservesdiminished/ A re%ent s+rve& b& the $hi%ago $o+n%il on #orld Affairs fo+nd that 3G of respondents agreed that the H/S/ sho+ld Ista& o+t of worldaffairs,I the highest n+mber re%orded sin%e this @+estion was first asked in 1> ? / The e%onomi% %risis %o+ld be the straw thatbreaks the %amelCs ba%k/ 6n the past, the Ameri%an politi%al pro%ess has managed to &ield +p remarkableleaders when the& were most needed/ As voters go to the polls in the shadow of an impending world %risis, the& need to askthemselves whi%h %andidate based +pon intelle%t, %o+rage, past e4perien%e and personal testing is most likel& to rise to an o%%asion as grave asthe one we now fa%e/

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S &S /SR

GPS is ke to /SR$hi

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S &S N#

GPS mo)erni=ation sol es N#$ebrowski (A/ / $ebrowski, !ire%tor, ffi%e of For%e Transformation, ffi%e of the Se%retar& of !efense, IThe

6mplementation of 5etwork $entri% #arfareI, 12.1G.0 ,www/a+/af/mil.a+.aw%.aw%gate.transformation.oft implementation n%w/pdf..aviWhile all of these exam - ples of innovation are con - sidered platform-centric, the past %ent+r& has also seen man&innovations fo%+sed on %reating advan tage in the information domain/ The abilit& to develop and e4ploitan information advantage has alwa&s been important in warfare, hen%e the time lessness of se%+rit& ands+rprise as important prin%iples of war/ ;4amples of innovations that %reated information advantages inwarfare have in%l+ded couriers on horseback, signal flags, encryption and code breaking, telegraph, wireless radio, aerialreconnaissance and photography, radar, electronic warfare, satellites (communica - tions, reconnaissance), and advan%es innavigation ( magnetic compass, Global Positioning System [J=SZ / #hile the importan%e of innovation in theinformation domain in the past has been great, its importan%e has gained %riti%al signifi%an%e in warfaretoda&/ Today, the implementation of 5$# thro+gh the %ond+%t of 5$ is %reating a warfighting advan tagefor those who p+rs+e it/ At the most basic level of warfare, there has always been a critical need to be able to distinguish friend from foe on the battle - field, day and night and in all sorts of terrain and weather conditions. The introduction andwidespread use of night vision equipment has provided our forces with a very impor - tant advantage. Similarly, the combination of digitization and networking can be employed to develop a common tactical picture that reduces the fog of war to clearly identifythe posi - tions of friendly forces and the known positions of the enemy. The abilit& to provide s+%h a pi%t+re provides ane4ample of developing an information advantage thro+gh 5$#/ $ombat power %an be in%reased sharpl&b& s+%%essf+ll& e4ploiting this advantage/ Across a broad spectrum of mission areas, evidence collected to date indicatesthat the devel - opment of a common operational picture (COP), such as that depicted in figure 9 , can significantly increase thewarfighter’s awareness and under - standing of tactical and operational situations. The sharing of information obvio+sl&%ontrib+tes to shared sit+ational awareness and +nderstanding/ The abilit& to develop a higher level ofsit+ational awareness , in less time than an adversary, combined with the ability to act on it, is a so+r%e of %onsiderablewarfighting advantage/ This advantage is not int+itive, b+t its impa%t is profo+nd .

2C

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R&3 R@S K2 ;&G

!o! reform ke& to hegemon&;aglen et al 11(Ma%ken

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"""D/SAD /NKS"""

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SP&ND/NG

=lan %osts at least >/2 billion6annotta, 200O(7ed 6annotta, ;ditor of the $ 6SB *o+rnal, "$ost growth triggers review of H/S/ sat%om plan), September11, 200O, http-..www/% isr o+rnal/%om.stor&/php FD3?201O3=a&ton did not %riti%i3> million forthe third satellite/ "This is prett& sho%king,) =a&ton said/ The total %ost for fo+r satellites wo+ld be >/2billion/

TSATS are e'!ensi eJambrell Y0E[Jambrell, ath&, editor for Aerospa%e !ail&, "8awmakers Ca%+tel& %on%ernedC abo+t Air For%e spa%eprograms,) Aerospa%e !ail& and !efense Beport, 5ewsK =g/ 3 Vol/ 210 5o/ G2, *+ne 2O, 200 /ZSenate a!!ro!riators sai) the ha e serio+s !ro7lems with se eral %.S. Air 3or e s!a e!rograms, iting in a 7+)get re!ort their high ost, +n!ro en te hnolog an) s he)+le )ela s.The ommittee remains a +tel on erne) that !roje te) in estments in Air 3or e s!a e!rograms are not s+staina7le, sa s the Senate A!!ro!riations #ommittee re!ort on the fis%al200E defense b+dget/ 6n F C0E, the Air 3or e seeks to nearl )o+7le its in estment I in the Spa%e 7ased Badar program and Imore than do+bleI the Trans*ormational Satellite#omm+ni ations S stem at a time when the & ol e) &'!en)a7le a+n h ehi le !rogram alsohas more than )o+7le), the report sa&s/ I A or)ing to +rrent !lans, ea h o* the a7o e-mentione) !rograms grows 7 a minim+m o* billion/ IThe re%ommended level of *+n)ing permits the Air For%eto %ontin+e te%hnolog& mat+ration and f+rther st+d& the relationship and %osts %on%erning S7Bindependen%eI on other programs, in%l+ding TSAT, the report sa&s/ 6t also said that Iea%h%ontra%tor team [sho+ldZ narrow their %on%ept development to onl& lead %on%epts/I 8o%kheedMartin and 5orthrop Jr+mman were awarded two &ear st+d& %ontra%ts for the program in April(!A68, April 1> / The 9o+se Appropriations $ommittee also %riti%i

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#R D- %T

An more in rease in satellites will row) o+t what te h we ha eS%ott#anon / Mar%h 2, 2011 / 7attle with %ell phones for bandwidth worries J=S ind+str&/http-..sprint%onne%tion/kansas%it&/%om. @Dnode.1?2?5ow a radio war is brewing between two large %ommer%ial interests/ 6t's far less %lear whi%h side might b+dge/ ne side ison the %ontin+ing @+est to in%rease wireless broadband f or &o+r %ell phone, laptop or tablet/ 6t's %ome +p with a newte%hnolog& %ombination that adds a satellite : in %ontrast to +sing %ell phone towers onl& : to give &o+ almost +nlimited wireless%overage/ And it brings fresh %ompetition to %+rb high speed broadband pri%es/ 7+t that new te%hnolog& has %ome sma%k +pagainst satellite g+ided navigation for &o+r J=S devi%e/ The %at%h is that when the new signals move in, the&'ll%rowd o+t J=S traffi%/ The J=S ind+str& fears its devi%es %o+ld s+ffer the fate of those Ari

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!rograms take +! most o* the 7+)get. HA*ter o+ *+l*ill those reL+irements, there is not a lot o*mone le*tI *or new initiati es , 8akos said here %t/ 1 /

TSATs +n!o!+lar- Pentagon looking *or smaller, less e'!ensi e, newer !rogramsstrove, 2011

(#illiam 5/ strove/ Feb , 2011/ Spa%e S&stems Anal&st, fo+nder of fore%astinternational/ =rograms,

7+dgets $hallenge Militar& Spa%e/ http-..www/aviationweek/%om.aw.generi%.stor&/ spidDnews.awst.2011.01.2 .A# 01 2 2011 p01?0 2G EG0/4mlLheadlineD=rograms, 207+dgets20$hallenge 20Militar& 20Spa%eL%hannelDdefense/

Spa%e assets pla& a vital role in %+rrent and per%eived f+t+re battlefield needs, with %omm+ni%ations satellites an important part ofnetworking for%es/ 7+t program problems and b+dget restri%tions are %ombining to %hange thinking on how%apabilities sho+ld be developed and deplo&ed/ The H/S/ militar& has an insatiable demand for bandwidth, and the AirFor%e had hoped its new Transformational Satellites (TSAT wo+ld revol+tioni/ The =entagon will instead fo%+s on b+&ing more e4amples of the available

Advan%ed ;4tremel& 9igh Fre@+en%& (A;9F and #ideband Jlobal Sat%om (#JS satellites/ TSAT's%an%ellation is part of a wider trend in H/S/ spa%e spending / Bather than develop advan%ed and e4pensive satelliteswith revol+tionar& te%hnolog&, the =entagon is adopting an evol+tionar& approa%h/ An e4ample is theperationall& Besponsive Spa%e ( BS model, +nder whi%h the H/S/ hopes to %reate smaller, less e4pensive satellitesthat %an be developed and la+n%hed m+%h more @+i%kl&/ These will offer onl& in%remental %apabilit& b+t, b& avoidingthe high risk development of "e4@+isite) s&stems, the =entagon hopes to minimi/3 of sales/ $o+ntries s+%h as B+ssia,$hina and 6srael are in%reasing their militar& spa%e spending and, b& the end of the 10 &ear fore%ast period, Asian %o+ntries willo+tpa%e ;+rope with 12/E of the market/

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A2( P AN /S SR&T

The !lan wo+l) 7e )one in !+7li6annotta, 200O(7ed 6annotta, ;ditor of the $ 6SB *o+rnal, "$ost growth triggers review of H/S/ sat%om plan), September11, 200O, http-..www/% isr o+rnal/%om.stor&/php FD3?201O3

A b+sted b+dget on the H/S/ Air For%e's Advan%ed ;4tremel& 9igh Fre@+en%& (A;9F satellite programwill for%e the =entagon to re e4amine its long range strateg& for ens+ring prote%ted, am resistant%omm+ni%ations between the H/S/ %ivilian leadership and %ommanders aro+nd the world/ The 8o%kheedMartin A;9F satellites are s%hed+led to start la+n%hing in A+g+st 200>, and sometime after 201E the H/S/plans to shift to a %onstellation of f+t+risti% Transformational Satellites (T Sat that wo+ld bo+n%etransmissions thro+gh spa%e b& laser and send broadband imager& to moving vehi%les/ n Sept/ E, the=entagon formall& set in motion a review of its A;9F plan, something that %annot be done witho+t alsoe4amining T Sat, said Jar& =a&ton, the Air For%e dep+t& +nderse%retar& for spa%e programs, in atele%onferen%e with reporters/ The H/S/ 5+nn M%$+rd& a%@+isition law re@+ires the =entagon to ree4amine programs whose %osts es%alate b& more than 2E per%ent, and re +stif& them to $ongress/"#hen do we stop A;9F and when do we start T Sat ) =a&ton said/ "That's within the realm of the widthand breadth of a 5+nn M%$+rd& re%ertifi%ation/) =a&ton said the Air For%e still plans to award a %ontra%tfor T Sat as earl& as 5ovember/ 8o%kheed Martin and 7oeing have been %ond+%ting laborator&demonstrations of their proposed laser %omm+ni%ations links with f+nds from the Air For%e as the&%ompete for the right to b+ild the spa%e%raft/

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"""#AS&"""

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1N# /SR

1. /m!ro ements in /SR )on>t li*t *og o* war an) in enti i=e atta ks *rom %Senemies7oot, 200G

Ma4 7oot/ FA88 200G/ senior fellow at the $o+n%il on Foreign Belations, a %ol+mnist for the 8os AngelesTimes, and a %ontrib+ting editor to The #eekl& Standard/ The =arado4 of Militar& Te%hnolog&/http-..www/thenewatlantis/%om.p+bli%ations.the parado4 of militar& te%hnolog&Taken together , the %hanges in militar& power wro+ght b& the information revol+tion are still in their earl&stages , and the& still have serio+s limitations / ;ven the best s+rveillan%e s&stems %an be st&mied b& simple%o+ntermeas+res like %amo+flage, smoke, and de%o&s, b& bad weather, or b& terrain like the deep sea,mo+ntains, or +ngles/ Sensors have limited abilit& to penetrate solid ob e%ts, so that the& %annot tell whatis happening in +ndergro+nd b+nkers s+%h as those that 5orth orea and 6ran likel& +se to hide their n+%lear weaponsprograms/ Hrban areas present a parti%+larl& diffi%+lt %hallenge - There are far more things to tra%k (individ+als and farmore obstr+%tions (b+ildings, vehi%les, trees, signs than at sea or in the sk& / Fig+ring o+t whether a person is a %ivilianor an ins+rgent is a lot harder than fig+ring o+t whether an +nidentified air%raft is a %ivilian airliner or anenem& fighter / 6t is harder still to f ig+re o+t how man& enem& soldiers will resist or what stratagems the& will emplo&/ 5o ma%hinehas &et been invented that %an penetrate h+man tho+ght pro%esses / ;ven with the best e@+ipment in the world, H/S/for%es fre@+entl& have been s+rprised b& their adversaries / Some strategists e4pe%t that advan%es in informationte%hnolog& will greatl& diminish if not altogether obliterate some of these diffi%+lties/ The =entagon is %reating a Jlobal 6nformationJrid that will pool data f rom all H/S/ assets, whether an infantr&man on the gro+nd or a satellite in spa%e/ The +ltimate goal- toprovide a perfe%t operational pi%t+re:a "Jod's e&e view) of the battlespa%e/ This ambitio+s ob e%tive %o+ld be f+rthered b& thedevelopment of better mi%rowave radars that %o+ld see thro+gh walls, foliage, or soilK %heaper, more pervasive sensors that %o+ldprovide 2 .? %overage of the battlefieldK better data %ompression and transmission te%hni@+es that %o+ld allow more b&tes to besent m+%h fasterK and more powerf+l %omp+ters that might make it possible to %reate, for e4ample, a real time, three dimensionalmodel of a %it& showing all the people who reside in it/ et no matter how far information te%hnolog& advan%es, it isdo+btf+l that the =entagon will ever s+%%eed, as some +topians dream, in "lifting the fog of war/) Thefallibilit& of Ameri%an soldiers and the %+nning of their enemies will s+rel& %ontin+e to fr+strate the bestlaid plans / Moreover, Ameri%a's growing relian%e on high te%h s&stems %reates new v+lnerabilities of its own - F+t+re enemieshave strong in%entives to atta%k H/S/ %omp+ter and %omm+ni%ation nodes/ Strikes on militar& informationnetworks %o+ld blind or paral&

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&ears, the J6J re@+ires ! ! to advan%e a n+mber of ke& te%hnologies, develop a series of %omple4s&stems and software, field them witho+t dela& so s%hed+les for other dependent s&stems are notdisr+pted, and develop the means to effe%tivel& manage and prote%t the network and its data/

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1N# N#

1. Plan )oesn>t !re ent %S s!a e hallengers!+dne&, 2011(Bobert S/ !+dne&, former editor in %hief of Air For%e Maga

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aheadI te%hnologies alread& in +se b& the Hnited States / Former $hinese leader *iang ^emin %alled thesete%hnologies Ishasho+ ian,I translated vario+sl& as IassassinCs ma%eI or Isilver b+llet/I The& ranged from advan%ed %omm+ni%ationse@+ipment to long range missile s&stems/ A $redible Threat The res+lt of $hinaCs 1E &ear effort has been Ithe largestmilitar& b+ild+p the world has witnessed sin%e the end of the $old #ar ,I sa&s Bi%hard Fisher, a $hina spe%ialistfor the 6nternational Assessment and Strateg& $enter (6AS$ , a Virginia based think tank/ $hina is now termed a I%redible threat toother modern militaries operating in the regionI b& the !epartment of !efense, despite lang+ishing perhaps 2E &ears behind theStates in a n+mber of areas/ 7& ne4t &ear , $hinese n+%lear missiles %o+ld have the %apabilit& to hit an& target in

the Hnited States from la+n%h sites on mainland $hina / 7& 200O, the %o+ntr& is e4pe%ted to possess s+bmarinela+n%hed n+%lear missiles, giving it global strike %apabilities/ The n+%lear arsenal is ba%ked b& an in%reasingl& sophisti%ated nav&and air for%e/ $+rrentl& on $hinese militar& drawing boards are plans for %ombat air%raft, the $hengd+ * 10 and Nian *9 ?A fighter

etsK a %ombat heli%opter, the ^ 10K advan%ed warshipsK and even spa%e based weapons designed to kno%k o+t %omm+ni%ationssatellites/ H/S/ observers fear that m+%h of this will be made possible b& espionage / 6n *+ne 200E, $hina began sea trialsof its new 8+&ang 66 g+ided missile destro&ers/ #hen the armaments were +nveiled, aws %len%hed in the=entagon/ The ships were e@+ipped with a kno%koff of the latest version of the H/S/ 5av&Cs Aegis battlemanagement s&stem, a %riti%al %ommand and %ontrol te%hnolog&/ The te%hnolog& enables H/S/ and now $hinesefor%es to sim+ltaneo+sl& atta%k land targets, s+bmarines and s+rfa%e ships/ 6t also r+ns fleet defense ta%ti%s to prote%t againsthostile planes and missiles / Federal so+r%es insist that the onl& wa& the relativel& ba%kward $hinese militar&%o+ld have developed s+%h a s&stem was b& %op&ing it /

41

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1N# A&R SPA#&

1. Aeros!a e gets more workers *rom )e line o* NASA s!a e sh+ttleS%hneider, 2011M6 ; S$95;6!;B/ *+l/ 0 , 2011/ An award winning o+rnalist with 1O &ears e4perien%e %overing theH/S/ spa%e program, !ata o+rnalist at Asso%iated =ress/ Fla/Cs Spa%e $oast feels pain of sh+ttleCs end/http-..www/kansas%it&/%om.2011.0?.0 .2>>23E .flas spa%e %oast feels pain of/html#ith the la+n%hes of Sat+rn ro%kets, the %omm+nities of Tit+sville, $ape $anaveral, Merritt 6sland and $o%oa 7ea%h gained an infl+4of highl& ed+%ated engineers, pro e%t managers and te%hni%ians, and aerospa%e be%ame the Spa%e $oastCs dominantind+str&/ ;ven the area %ode is 3 2 1/ ;lementar& s%hools are named for the sh+ttles and thereCs Astrona+t 9igh S%hool andSatellite 9igh S%hool/ 8o%als ate at the Moon 9+t resta+rant before it %losed, and visitors %an sleep in a bed shaped like a spa%esh+ttle at the 7est #estern Spa%e Sh+ttle 6nn in Tit+sville/ Besta+rants and b+sinesses alread& are feeling the belt tightening asresidents sta& home to save mone&/ After *+l&, it will be a long while before hotels are booked +p like the& +s+all& are for sh+ttlela+n%hes/ 9+ndreds of tho+sands of spe%tators po+r into 7revard $o+nt&, whi%h ordinaril& is home to a half million residents/I;ver&one is starting to feel the pin%h/ =eople are not working/ The&Cre e%onomi

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1N# S &N#

1. TSATs *ail- em!iri s !ro e8evin, 2003(Bobert ;/ 8evin, !ire%tor of the A%@+isition and So+r%ing Management !epartment of the Hnited StatesJeneral A%%o+nting ffi%e, 5o Title, !e%ember , 2003, http-..www/gao/gov.new/items.d0 ?1r/pdf9istori%all&, ! ! has had diffi%+lt& meeting the %ost, s%hed+le, and performan%e goals that wereestablished at the start of its ma or defense a%@+isition programs s+%h as TSAT/ ! !'s investments inmone& and time have far e4%eeded initial estimates for developing and a%@+iring %omm+ni%ationssatellites and other weapon s&stems/ 6n addition, weapon s&stems have fre@+entl& been saddled withperforman%e shortfalls/3 To address some of these diffi%+lties, ! ! re%entl& implemented a new spa%es&stems a%@+isition poli%&, whi%h intends to provide de%ision makers in the Air For%e with more %onsistentand rob+st information on %osts, te%hnologies, and re@+irements/ The new a%@+isition poli%& alsopromotes rapid introd+%tion of emerging te%hnologies into spa%e s&stems and allows te%hnolog&, design,and s&stem development to o%%+r %on%+rrentl& in an effort to speed the a%@+isition pro%ess/ A re%entJA report identified some positive aspe%ts of the poli%&K however, the report stated that an& benefits willbe limited be%a+se the poli%& permits ma or investments in new programs before managers know whatreso+r%es are reall& re@+ired to deliver a promised %apabilit&/

2. Stat+s L+o sol es- other !rograms ha e re!la e) TSATsSa%knoff, 200>(S%ott Sa%knoff, owner of S=A!; 6nde4es, whi%h develops and manages se%tor, theme, and regionalinde4es +sed as the basis for investment prod+%ts in%l+ding e4%hange traded f+nds/ "Ten e&s for6nvesting in !efense ver the 5e4t Ten Months), *+ne O th, 200>, http-..seekingalpha/%om.arti%le.1 1> Gten ke&s for investing in defense over the ne4t si4 monthsSpe%ifi%s of the F 2010 !efense !epartment b+dget were finall& made available in earl& Ma& and therewere few s+rprises from the information that was leaked over the previo+s weeks/ A n+mber of largeprograms were %an%elled or s%aled ba%k in%l+ding ma or initiatives s+%h as the F+t+re $ombat S&stem,Transformational Satellite TSAT, and the presidential heli%opter, b+t ea%h were "repla%ed) with otherprograms that are designed to meet the ongoing needs of the agen%&/ 6n fa%t, despite the %an%ellation ofthe m+lti billion TSAT program, spending on new %omm+ni%ations satellites in F 10 rose/ Anal&sts havenow shifted their attention toward gathering information on the 2010 U+adrennial !efense Beview (U!Bwhi%h will be the g+ide for the F 2011 to F 201E b+dgets altho+gh final details are not d+e +ntil ne4tFebr+ar&/ #hile a n+mber of anal&sts think defense spending has peaked with the F 10 b+dget,dramati% %+ts in f+t+re b+dgets is meeting with resistan%e from a n+mber of %+rrent and former membersof the e4e%+tive bran%h and $ongress as well as militar& offi%ials/

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%o+ld onl& %over basi% development, a or)ing to Oohn &)war)s o* 3ore ast /nternational. I#hen people sa& thatTSAT is a 10 billion development program 6 think the& are tr&ing to des%ribe the ! ! B!TL; [resear%h, development, test andeval+ationZ f+nding in the Air For%e b+dget,I ;dwards said/ IThis amo+nt totals appro4imatel& 10 billion between fis%al &ear C0E andfis%al &ear C11/ This does not in%l+de a%t+al spa%e%raft pro%+rement [orZ la+n%her pro%+rement, nor does it in%l+de gro+nd segmentpro%+rement %osts, whi%h, when added +p, will total more than 1G billion/ IThe JA [Jovernment A%%o+ntabilit& ffi%eZ hasestimated that it wo+ld %ost 1G billion in Ma& 200G so itCs safe to sa& that there has been some %ost growth sin%e that time,I;dwards %ontin+ed/ I6 believe that $1C 7illion is the more realisti *ig+re an) / wo+l)n6t 7e s+r!rise) i* it

was a t+all slightl higher than that i* all the s!a e ra*t are in)ee) !ro +re). &)war)s also sai)the re ent re*+sals to )is +ss or7it-to-gro+n) laser links are likel )+e to te hni al )i**i +lties in)e elo!ing s+ h a a!a7ilit / IThe gro+nd orbit laser %omms portion of TSAT was one of the desired %apabilities and thereason &o+ ma& not be hearing abo+t it so m+%h is be%a+se the laser %omms are %onsidered to be the most te%hnologi%all& andfis%all& %hallenging portions of TSAT/ The first TSAT spa%e%raft will be far less %apable than originall& e4pe%ted and not +ntil these%ond and ma&be even third spa%e%raft will we start to see some of the bells and whistles that were promised with TSAT/I 8orenThompson, spa%e e4pert for the 8e4ington 6nstit+te, said the reason for a %lamp down on dis%+ssions abo+t that t&pe of laser%omm+ni%ations is be%a+se even the development of that %apabilit& is now %onsidered %lassified/

/ TSATs prod+%tion not feasible +ntil 201O te%h problems7+tler, 2011(Am& 7+tler/2011/ http-..www/aviationweek/%om.aw. sp in%l+des.arti%le=rint/ spstor&6!Dnews.aw0 0?Op1/4mlLhead8ineDHSAF 20=lans 20First 20A;9F 208a+n%hThe government has provided abo+t E00 million ea%h to 7oeing and 8o%kheed Martin to develop TSAT

designs, whi%h are e4pe%ted to in%orporate highl& se%+re laser links/ The& will transmit massive amo+nts of data+sing lightwaves rather than radio fre@+en%ies/ TSAT is also e4pe%ted to make +se of 6nternet proto%ol ro+ting, essentiall& providinga se%+re 6nternet in the sk& / The initial operational %apabilit& for TSAT one of then !efense Se%retar& !onaldB+msfeldCs ItransformationalI programs designed to e4ploit leaps in te%hnolog& is e4pe%ted to slip, possibl& to 201O,a%%ording to a senior Air For%e offi%ial/ =lans originall& %alled for a 200> first la+n%h, or earlier/ 5ow%ontra%torsC work has been e4tended to *+ne, at whi%h time the& hope to have dire%tion from the Air For%e on how to pro%eed/7oeing and 8o%kheed Martin have both s+bmitted proposals for the TSAT development %ontra%t, b+t a downsele%t date is +n%ertain/!espite a 1E0 million %+t in the Fis%al 200O TSAT b+dget, Air For%e offi%ials at the Milsat%om programoffi%e sa& f+nding is still available for a de%ision b& %tober/ 9owever, a %+t of ro+ghl& 3/> billion thro+gh 2013 hasleft planners s%rambling to fig+re o+t how to field as m+%h advan%ed te%hnolog& with TSAT as possible, given a reso+r%e shortage/IThe !epartment of !efense is reassessing the optimal strateg& for satisf&ing f+t+re satellite %omm+ni%ation re@+irements in light ofe%onomi% realities, program interrelationships and +ser demand for these servi%es,I a%%ording to offi%ials at the Milsat%om programoffi%e at 8os Angeles AF7, $alif/ IHntil this assessment is %omplete, the long term TSAT program s%hed+le remains to bedetermined/I A;9F will repla%e the Milstar %onstellation now in orbit/ The last Milstar was lofted in April 2003/ A;9F Spa%e Vehi%le 1(SV 1 will be Iba%kward %ompatibleI with the Milstar %onstellation, meaning it will be %apable of %ross linking or transmitting datain spa%e to Milstar spa%e%raft +ntil the f+ll %omplement of A;9F satellites rea%hes orbit/ SV 1 will also be %ompatible with Milstarterminals now in the field with gro+nd +nits, in%l+ding spe%ial operatorsK A;9F signals emplo& a low probabl&of inter%ept anddete%tion %apabilit& as well/ 8o%kheed Martin sa&s its A;9F will provide 10 times the %apa%it& and si4 times the%hannel data rates over what is offered b& the most advan%ed Milstar satellites toda&/ A;9F will add aIhigher data rateI to the low and medi+m rate modes on Milstar 66, the most re%ent Iblo%kI of that s&stem/ The higherdata rate will allow for transmission of +p to O/2 Mbps/ to f+t+re A;9F Arm& terminals/

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