tropical weather briefing august 26, 2012 4 pm cdt national weather service weather forecast office...
TRANSCRIPT
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Tropical Weather BriefingTropical Weather Briefing
August 26, 20124 PM CDT
National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office
Slidell, LA
August 26, 20124 PM CDT
National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office
Slidell, LA
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Current SatelliteCurrent Satellite
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Tropical Storm IsaacTrack Guidance
Tropical Storm IsaacTrack Guidance
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Tropical Storm IsaacIntensity Forecast
Tropical Storm IsaacIntensity Forecast
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Tropical Storm Isaac TS Wind Probability ForecastTropical Storm Isaac TS Wind Probability Forecast
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Tropical Storm IsaacHurricane Wind Probability Forecast
Tropical Storm IsaacHurricane Wind Probability Forecast
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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Forecast
Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Forecast
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Tide LevelsTide LevelsCurrently in Spring Tide
MS Coast: Tide levels increasing to 8 to 12 feet above normal during high tide cycles through Wednesday.
SE LA Coast: Tide levels increasing to 5 to 7 feet above normal within Lake Pontchartrain, 5 to 9 feet above normal west of the MS River and 7 to 11 feet above normal east of the MS River through Wednesday high tide cycle.
Currently in Spring Tide
MS Coast: Tide levels increasing to 8 to 12 feet above normal during high tide cycles through Wednesday.
SE LA Coast: Tide levels increasing to 5 to 7 feet above normal within Lake Pontchartrain, 5 to 9 feet above normal west of the MS River and 7 to 11 feet above normal east of the MS River through Wednesday high tide cycle.
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Tide LevelsTide Levels
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Rainfall through Wed.Rainfall through Wed.
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SummarySummary
• Onset of TS winds: late Monday night/early Tuesday morning
• Tropical Storm wind duration: 24 hours for most locations with a few locations up to 36 hours
• Hurricane force wind duration: 8 to 10 hours in areas within direct path
• Tropical storm force wind probabilities range from 80-90% for the MS coast and 70-80% for SE LA north and south of Lake Pontchartrain and 50-70% across River Parishes and areas around BTR.
• Rainfall: 12 to 16 inches. Highest threat along and east of track.
• Tornadoes: Threat Tuesday through Wednesday
• Onset of TS winds: late Monday night/early Tuesday morning
• Tropical Storm wind duration: 24 hours for most locations with a few locations up to 36 hours
• Hurricane force wind duration: 8 to 10 hours in areas within direct path
• Tropical storm force wind probabilities range from 80-90% for the MS coast and 70-80% for SE LA north and south of Lake Pontchartrain and 50-70% across River Parishes and areas around BTR.
• Rainfall: 12 to 16 inches. Highest threat along and east of track.
• Tornadoes: Threat Tuesday through Wednesday
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SummarySummary
• HURRICANE WARNING is now in effect in the previous watch area. This includes the New Orleans metro area and the MS coast.
• TROPICAL STORM WARNING is now in effect for SW MS and E-central LA including the Baton Rouge metro area.
• Tropical Storm Isaac current forecast track has adjusted more westward of previous advisory – now closer to Bay-Waveland area early Wed morning. Forecast intensity still calls for a strong Category 2 hurricane at its U.S. landfall.
• Tropical storm force wind probabilities range from 80-90% for the MS coast and 60 to 85% for SE LA north and south of Lake Pontchartrain.
• Hurricane force wind probabilities are now 15-20% for MS coast and SE LA north and south of Tidal Lakes…and 5-10% over the River Parish and BTR area.
• HURRICANE WARNING is now in effect in the previous watch area. This includes the New Orleans metro area and the MS coast.
• TROPICAL STORM WARNING is now in effect for SW MS and E-central LA including the Baton Rouge metro area.
• Tropical Storm Isaac current forecast track has adjusted more westward of previous advisory – now closer to Bay-Waveland area early Wed morning. Forecast intensity still calls for a strong Category 2 hurricane at its U.S. landfall.
• Tropical storm force wind probabilities range from 80-90% for the MS coast and 60 to 85% for SE LA north and south of Lake Pontchartrain.
• Hurricane force wind probabilities are now 15-20% for MS coast and SE LA north and south of Tidal Lakes…and 5-10% over the River Parish and BTR area.
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SummarySummary
• Isaac has strengthened slightly and thunderstorms has increased near the center. A large rain area to the north of center was expanding N and W.
• A larger part of the outlook area will be affected by this storm. Some of the model guidance continues to indicate a shift more to the west, which could mean adjustments to the track in the next few advisories.
• Isaac has strengthened slightly and thunderstorms has increased near the center. A large rain area to the north of center was expanding N and W.
• A larger part of the outlook area will be affected by this storm. Some of the model guidance continues to indicate a shift more to the west, which could mean adjustments to the track in the next few advisories.
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Next UpdateNext Update
• Emails will come out after every advisory.
• Next webinar will be Monday 2 PM CDT.
• Emails will come out after every advisory.
• Next webinar will be Monday 2 PM CDT.
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Contact InformationContact Information
• Don’t hesitate to call or email us with any questions
• (985) 649–0429, (985) 645-0357
– Extension 4 to speak to a forecaster
• NWS Chat
– If you don’t use software(i.e. pidgin) please log into NWSCHAT live
• https://nwschat.weather.gov/live/
• This helps bypass the third party security issues and runs in your web browser
• E-mail: [email protected]
• http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/?n=embrief2
• http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.NewOrleans.gov#!/US.NationalWeatherService.NewOrleans.gov
• Follow us on Twitter: @NWSNewOrleans
• Don’t hesitate to call or email us with any questions
• (985) 649–0429, (985) 645-0357
– Extension 4 to speak to a forecaster
• NWS Chat
– If you don’t use software(i.e. pidgin) please log into NWSCHAT live
• https://nwschat.weather.gov/live/
• This helps bypass the third party security issues and runs in your web browser
• E-mail: [email protected]
• http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lix/?n=embrief2
• http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.NewOrleans.gov#!/US.NationalWeatherService.NewOrleans.gov
• Follow us on Twitter: @NWSNewOrleans