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  • 5/18/2014 J.Orasanu

    1

    Research Panel:

    Training for Effective Crew Decision Making

    Judith Orasanu

    NASA-Ames Research Center Mail Stop 262-4

    Moffett Field, CA 94035-1000

    Jorasanu@mail.arc.nasa.gov

    Aviation Education 2020 Workshop #2 Monterey, CA January 30, 2001

  • 5/18/2014 Jorasanu 2

    Overview of Talk

    What does the future hold for pilots in 2020?

    Implications for pilot training

    Flight Crew Decision Making

    Requirements for effective crew decision making

    Pilot Decision Making model

    How do crews go wrong - 2001?

    Training requirements - 2020

  • 5/18/2014 Jorasanu 3

    The Future?

    Fully automated aircraft (but with a few

    oldies but goodies left over?)

    Synthetic vision

    Free Flight

    Automated ATC

    Automated flight tools

    Distributed decision environments

    MORE TRAFFIC!

    Less experienced pilots?

  • 5/18/2014 Jorasanu 4

    Implications for Pilots?

    Role shift - pilots as system managers

    Increased Strategic planning + Tactical

    decision making

    BUT, still need to maintain

    Stick and rudder skills

    Steam gauge knowledge?

    Distributed decision making

    ATC

    Dispatch

    Other pilots

  • 5/18/2014 Jorasanu 5

    Flight Crew Decision Making

    What is EFFECTIVE Decision Making - 2001?

    Decision that leads to best TASK performance

    Under the given circumstances

    At lowest cost

    Performance = Accomplish mission

    Maximize safety

    Minimize risk

    Passenger satisfaction, meet company goals

    Costs: Time, Fuel, Cognitive Effort, System Efficiency

  • 5/18/2014 Jorasanu 6

    Ingredients for Effective DM

    Good Information

    Sufficient Knowledge

    Appropriate Cognitive and Metacognitive

    Processes

    Good Crew Processes

  • Environment Events Conditions Constraints

    Cues

    Situation

    Assessment

    Diagnose problem

    Time available

    Assess risk

    Type?

    Severity?

    Immediate/

    Potential

    Choose

    Action Goals Procedural

    Adaptive/choice

    Creative

    Goals

    Evaluate

    Demands

    On Crew

    Resources to

    Meet Demands Task

    Management

  • 5/18/2014 Jorasanu 8

    How Do Crews Go Wrong?

    Incorrectly assess the situation = Solve

    the wrong problem!

    Understand the problem, but make

    inappropriate decision

  • 5/18/2014 Jorasanu 9

    Decision Errors

    FACT: 2/3 crew-related Pt. 121 accidents involved

    tactical decision errors (NTSB, 1994)

    -- 3/4 involved monitoring/challenging errors QuickTime and aGraphics decompressorare needed to see this picture.

    Proc T D E A/C Handling

    Sit Aware Comm Sys Op Res Mgmt Nav Mon/Chal0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    Pe

    rce

    nt

    of

    To

    tal E

    rro

    rs

    Type of Error

    Primary Secondary

  • 5/18/2014 Jorasanu 10

    Plan Continuation Errors

    Decision to continue with an original plan

    in the face of cues that indicate

    Conditions have changed

    Plan revision might be prudent

    38/51 (75%) of all decision errors in 37 Pt.

    121 accidents involved PCE (NTSB, 1994)

  • QuickTime and aGraphics decompressorare needed to see this picture.

    Gate/Taxi Takeoff Cruise Approach Landing0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    Pe

    rce

    nta

    ge

    of

    To

    tal E

    rro

    rs (

    N =

    51

    )

    Phase of Fl i ght

    7.8

    3.9

    7.8

    9.8

    7.8 7.8

    21.6

    3.9

    29.4

    0

    Plan Cont. Errors

    Non-Plan Cont. Errors

    Di st r i but i on of Deci si on Errors

    in 37 flightcrew-involved accidents studied by the NTSB (1994)

  • 5/18/2014 Jorasanu 12

    Underestimate risk

    Overestimate own or aircraft ability

    Fail to update dynamic situation model

    Social/organizational pressures

    Poor information

    Misinterpret cues

    Habit capture - stress

    Plan Continuation Errors-Why?

  • 5/18/2014 Jorasanu 13

    Training Requirements

    Knowledge Mental Models of the System, Automation, Environment,

    Weather, Crew Roles, ATC

    Strategies Situation Assessment

    Diagnosis

    Time

    Risk

    Action Decision Evaluate through mental simulation

    Metacognitive Skills Manage tasks and resources

    Crew Skills Communication & coordination

  • 5/18/2014 Jorasanu 14

    Summary

    Computer skills will be important as TOOLS

    for making effective DECISIONS

    Decision environment will be more

    distributed, therefore will require effective

    teamwork and communication

    Flight management --> Safety management