tr@ins3 techno economical study bart lannoo
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![Page 1: Tr@Ins3 Techno Economical Study Bart Lannoo](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042521/54816f475906b5cd6c8b4691/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Techno-economic study
Bart Lannoo, Jan Van Ooteghem
IBBT – IBCN – UGent
![Page 2: Tr@Ins3 Techno Economical Study Bart Lannoo](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042521/54816f475906b5cd6c8b4691/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Forecasting
Determining rollout scheme
Calculating potential Internet
on train users
Forecasting the number of
train passengers
Flowchart business case
Technology
assignment
Determining min. technology
requirements
Computing technical scenarios
Cost/benefit
model
Calculating cost / benefit
model
Evaluation
Output business model
![Page 3: Tr@Ins3 Techno Economical Study Bart Lannoo](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042521/54816f475906b5cd6c8b4691/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
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Forecasting
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
Nu
mb
er
of
pa
ss
en
ge
rs p
er
da
y
RelationOostende - Eupen
Passenger forecasting
Adoption
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
First class adoption
Second class adoption
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4
Forecasting
Determining rollout scheme
Calculating potential Internet
on train users
Forecasting the number of
train passengers
Flowchart business case
Technology
assignment
Determining min. technology
requirements
Computing technical scenarios
Cost/benefit
model
Calculating cost / benefit
model
Evaluation
Output business model
![Page 5: Tr@Ins3 Techno Economical Study Bart Lannoo](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042521/54816f475906b5cd6c8b4691/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
2. Wireless data networks
WiFi / WiMAX / Flash-OFDM
Dedicated networkfor Internet on the train
Used outdoor technologies
Satellite
1. Inherent delay:RTT ca. 500 ms
2. LOS required
GPRS / UMTS / HSDPA
1. Mobile networks
Network frommobile operators
3. Satellite networks
DVB-S2 / DVB-RCS
Suited for rural areas(cf. high-speed trains)
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Potential coverage problems
Networks URBAN TUNNELS RURAL
Mobile network +++ ++ +
Wireless data network ++ ++ ++
Satellite network + +++
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Technology assignment
Mobile networkWireless data network Satellite network
Full WiMAX network
Only UMTS/HSDPA
WiMAX where UMTS/HSDPA is insufficient
Pre-installed WiMAX network on certain tracks
1 way satellite + UMTS/HSDPA for uplink connection / gap filler
Mainscenarios
UMTS
UMTS+WiMAX
WiMAX+UMTS
WiMAX
Pre-installed WiMAX antennas in stationsWiMAX STAT.
SAT. 1 WAY
SAT. 2 WAY 2 way satellite + UMTS/HSDPA as gap filler
Specific cases
Case 1
Case 2
Case 3
Case 5
Case 4
Case 6
Case 7
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Technology mapping
None - UMTS – HSDPA – WiMAX
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
UMTS + WiMAX
![Page 9: Tr@Ins3 Techno Economical Study Bart Lannoo](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042521/54816f475906b5cd6c8b4691/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Forecasting
Determining rollout scheme
Calculating potential Internet
on train users
Forecasting the number of
train passengers
Flowchart business model
Technology
assignment
Determining min. technology
requirements
Computing technical scenarios
Cost/benefit
model
Calculating cost / benefit
model
Evaluation
Output business model
![Page 10: Tr@Ins3 Techno Economical Study Bart Lannoo](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042521/54816f475906b5cd6c8b4691/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
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Cost parameters
Wirelessdata
networksMobile
networksSatellite
networks
Train equipment Outdoor antenna
Indoor network+ + +++
Network equipment Trackside network
NOC+++ + +
General costs Helpdesk
Sales (billing)
Marketing
++ ++ ++
Operations Maintenance and repair
Network management
License costs
+++ + ++
Network connection Outdoor link + +++ ++
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Revenue schemes
Ticket types
Prepaid cards per hour (e.g. hotspot service)
Monthly subscriptions
Ticket price
Dependent on offered service: €2.9 – €3.9 (5 - 55 kbps)
Service of 30 kbps: Prepaid: €3.4 / Subscription: €18
Two revenue scenarios
Both first and second class paying
First class free Internet, second class paying
Modal switch from 1st to 2nd class!!!
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12
Forecasting
Determining rollout scheme
Calculating potential Internet
on train users
Forecasting the number of
train passengers
Flowchart business case
Technology
assignment
Determining min. technology
requirements
Computing technical scenarios
Cost/benefit
model
Calculating cost / benefit
model
Evaluation
Output business model
![Page 13: Tr@Ins3 Techno Economical Study Bart Lannoo](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042521/54816f475906b5cd6c8b4691/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
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NPV analysis (10 years, 15% discount rate, 1st class free Internet)
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
NP
V [M
€]
Bandwidth per user [kbps]
UMTS
WIMAX
UMTS + WIMAX
WIMAX + UMTS
WiMAX STAT.
SAT 1 WAY
SAT 2 WAY
-5
-10
-15
30 kbps per individual user ≈ user experience of 1 Mbps
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14
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
NP
V [M
€]
Bandwidth per user [kbps]
UMTS
WIMAX
UMTS + WIMAX
WIMAX + UMTS
WiMAX STAT.
SAT 1 WAY
SAT 2 WAY
-5
-10
-15
NPV analysis (10 years, 15% discount rate, 1st class free Internet)
30 kbps per individual user ≈ user experience of 1 Mbps
![Page 15: Tr@Ins3 Techno Economical Study Bart Lannoo](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042521/54816f475906b5cd6c8b4691/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
NP
V [M
€]
Bandwidth per user [kbps]
UMTS
WIMAX
UMTS + WIMAX
WIMAX + UMTS
WiMAX STAT.
SAT 1 WAY
SAT 2 WAY
-5
-10
-15
NPV analysis (10 years, 15% discount rate, 1st class free Internet)
30 kbps per individual user ≈ user experience of 1 Mbps
![Page 16: Tr@Ins3 Techno Economical Study Bart Lannoo](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042521/54816f475906b5cd6c8b4691/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
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-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
NP
V [M
€]
Bandwidth per user [kbps]
UMTS
WIMAX
UMTS + WIMAX
WIMAX + UMTS
WiMAX STAT.
SAT 1 WAY
SAT 2 WAY
-5
-10
-15
NPV analysis (10 years, 15% discount rate, 1st class free Internet)
30 kbps per individual user ≈ user experience of 1 Mbps
![Page 17: Tr@Ins3 Techno Economical Study Bart Lannoo](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042521/54816f475906b5cd6c8b4691/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
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-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55
NP
V [M
€]
Bandwidth per user [kbps]
UMTS
WIMAX
UMTS + WIMAX
WIMAX + UMTS
WiMAX STAT.
SAT 1 WAY
SAT 2 WAY
-5
-10
-15
NPV analysis (10 years, 15% discount rate, 1st class free Internet)
30 kbps per individual user ≈ user experience of 1 Mbps
![Page 18: Tr@Ins3 Techno Economical Study Bart Lannoo](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042521/54816f475906b5cd6c8b4691/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
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Sensitivity results
-94%
2%
1%
1%
-1%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
Bandwidth per user
Number of SIM cards per train
Second class adoption
Modal switch
Cellular bandwidth cost
CASE 1
51%
30%
-10%
4%
2%
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100%
Second class adoption
Bandwidth per user
Tariff per hour
Modal switch
Leasing percentage poles
CASE 5
Mobile networks
Due to the high bandwidth cost for UMTS
Full WiMAX network
More users + more bandwidth (less important with dedicated networks) = higher revenue
UMTS
WiMAX
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Optimisations
Adapted rollout schemes
Heuristics (~ rolling out the right lines)
Based on number of passengers per train relation
Based on the route of a train relation
Based on interdependencies between train relations
Real options (~ rolling out on the right moment)
To introduce flexibility in the rollout time line
Rollout speed is adapted
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Conclusions
Combination of technologies required
Dense railway network: UMTS + WiMAX
Rural railway network: Satellite solutions
Business case
Positive case in Belgium is possible
Influenced by many factors
User forecasting, rollout scheme, offered bandwidth
Business models
Role and participation of the partners important
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Personal details:
Name:
Company:
Phone:
E-mail:
Bart Lannoo, Jan Van Ooteghem
IBBT – IBCN – UGent
+32 9 331 49 81
Thanks for your attention!