trimegah economy 20151120 economy outlook 2016 2

ECONOMIC FOCUS PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1

Stimulus to kick in

Couple of stimulus has been launched by government during September—

November this year, attracting new investment, specifically FDI, and to

improve domestic demand. More importantly, current government direc-

tion is clearer on stimulus mode rather than mixed signal in first semes-

ter. We also anticipate another big three stimulus program including : 1)

tax amnesty, 2) corporate tax rate cut, and 3) foreign ownership in prop-

erty. Expect around Rp 400tn flow to the system and consumption de-

mand to improve in 6-12 months lag time.

Moderate inflation gave room for interest rate loosening

On persistently low oil price, we expect inflation to ground at moderate

level, i.e. 5% in 2016. The downside is if oil price jump to USD 70/barrel

~ consistent in 3 months ~ and weakening rupiah is faster than expected.

With those moderate inflation level, BI has room to lower interest rate but

we think the central bank should wait for clearer signal from US regarding

its interest rate movement.

Rupiah should return to its normal depreciation rate vs USD

Bigger infrastructure spending and pick up on consumption might widen

Indonesia CAD to 2.27%% of GDP in 2016 vs 1.90% of GDP in 2015 (est)

which lead to currency weakening. Stronger USD post the anticipated US

interest rate hike also will add another pressure to rupiah. We expect

rupiah to hover at 14,100/USD by end of 2016 and 13,988/USD average

level.

GDP to recover, but slowly

On top of government stimulus to add more money flow into the system;

huge infrastructure budget; and improving domestic demand, we expect

GDP momentum to increase from 4.8% (est) in 2015 to 5.0% in 2016.

The recovery will take in smooth pace as challenge from China deteriorat-

ing economy is still on the table. Meanwhile, services sector still resilient

and fuel growth to our economy. Those sector contribute almost 50% to

the Indonesia GDP growth, especially IT & Telecommunication business,

financials, and transportation.

Economy Outlook 2016 Inflection Point

Dini Agmivia Anggraeni

([email protected])

November 20, 2015

MACRO ECONOMY DATA

GDP 3Q15 4.73%

Bank Indonesia rate 7.50%

Inflation Oct ’15 (YoY) 6.25%

Inflation Oct ’15 (MoM) -0.08%

Trade balance Oct ‘15 USD 1,019mn

Current account 3Q15 -1.86% of GDP

USD/IDR* 13,775

10Y Government Bonds* 8.66%

FX Reserves Oct ‘15 USD 100.7bn

* As of 19 Nov 2015

Source: CEIC, TRIM Research

Macroeconomy Forecast 2015 2016F 2017F

Inflation 4.50% 5.00% 5.50%

GDP growth 4.80% 5.00% 5.20%

Rupiah / USD (avg) 13,397 13,988 14,213

Rupiah / USD (eop) 13,900 14,100 14,300

BI rate 7.50% 7.50% 7.50%

Bond yield (10-year bond) 8.40% 8.20% 8.20%

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com ECONOMIC FOCUS 2

Year of stimulus..

Six stimulus package has been launched by government during September-November this year. Main purpose is

to attract new investment, specifically FDI, and to improve domestic demand. In order to attract investment,

Government mostly used tax incentives including tax allowances & tax holiday as well as shorter time required

for business permits. Meanwhile, higher PTKP; lower fuel & electricity tariff; wage increase standard; and wider

KUR facility were supposed to be the efforts to stimulate domestic demand.

More importantly, current government direction is clearer on stimulus mode rather than mixed signal in first se-

mester. We also anticipate another big three stimulus program including : 1) tax amnesty, 2) corporate tax rate

cut, and 3) foreign ownership in property, to be executed by the end of this year or early next year.

Tax amnesty, as the game changer

Tax amnesty as one of the biggest stimulus waited by investors is targeting around Rp 3,000tn (~ 27% of coun-

try’s nominal GDP) subjected assets to be repatriated. But, we don’t think it could fully repatriated as some of

the reasons that citizens place their money in offshore were for business activities, larger investment choices,

and the tax advantage they could get. Looking the successful tax amnesty case in Italy, the government could

repatriate 16% (€80bn) from the total subjected assets (€500bn ~ 35.7% of country’s nominal GDP) at 5% flat

tax rate. This is pretty similar with Indonesia’s case which offer 3% - 8% settlement tax rate. Thus, assum-

ing Indonesia government could have 13% success rate, it will translate to Rp 400tn assets declared

come to the system and result in Rp 20tn additional tax revenue

Tax Amnesty ‘RUU’ Draft

Source: TRIM Research

Type Elemination of tax administrative and criminal sanction

Assets Market value of tangible or non-tangible goods, movable or non-movable

Subject Individual or corporate

Settlement Rate 3% : reporting in 2015

5% : reporting between Jan 2016 - June 2016

8% : reporting between July 2016 - Dec 2016

Constraint Tax subject has to give attorney to Tax dept for account access

Facility a. Elimination of taxes payable, tax administration penalties and criminal sanctions in the field of taxation for the tax obligations before this law is enacted which has not issued tax assessments.

b. Not exposed to the letter forced tax collection, tax audit, preliminary evidence examina-

tion, investigation and prosecution of criminal offenses in the field of taxation on tax obliga-

tions in tax period, part of the tax year and the tax year before the legislation is enacted.

c. In the case of Individual or Agency being conducted tax audit or preliminary evidence ex-amination for the tax obligations before this law is enacted, the top tax audit or examination of the preliminary evidence is stopped.


Stimulus package Part I—VI

Source: Various Sources, TRIM Research

Stimulus Announced Highlight of stimulus packages

Stimulus 1 9-Sep-15 Govt will revise 154 regulations by end of October to improve investment climate

Administered gas price for several industry (no details provided)

Price control i.e. rice, to help purchasing power for low-income group

Reducing KUR (microfinance credit) interest rate from 23% to 12%

Stimulus 2 29-Sep-15 Tax allowances to encourage investment and discourage repatriation

Tax holiday facility expanded from 10 to 20 years with wider industry coverage

Tax incentive for export proceeds deposit

Tax removal for shpyard business, railway, and airplane spareparts

Integrated logistic zone

Stimulus 3 7-Oct-15 Industry gas price discount by up to 25% (could be for selective industries) effective Jan 2016

Avtur price cut by 5% for offshore usage and 1% for local usage (benefits airlines)

Diesel price cut by 3%, effective in three days

Pertalite price cut by 1%, effective in three days

LPG (12kg) price cut by 5%

Electricity tariff discount by 30% for late night usage (11pm - 8am)

Electricity payable facility, allowing corporates to pay 40% of its bill in installments

Shortening time required for corporates to process land leases from 50-90 days to 7-30

Days

Stimulus 4 16-Oct-15 Standardized formula for minimum wage increase p.a (inflation + gdp growth)

Wider debitur criteria for KUR

LPEI (Lembaga Pembiayaan Ekspor-Impor) will have different regulation from

Bank

Stimulus 5 23-Oct-15 Income tax discount for Company which revaluate their assets (3% vs 10% currently charged)

Reducing double taxation for REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) Stimulus 6 5-Nov-15 Allowing foreigners to own KEK property, include home site

Income tax discount from 20% to 100% during 5-25 years for new KEK invest-

ment

No need to pay VAT for import and transactions between KEK player is not exposed for VAT

Tax amnesty in Italy (2009) The scheme

Source: TRIM Research, Various Source Source: TRIM Research, Various Source

Italy introduced tax amnesty in 2001, which was extended in 2003

In 2009, the Italian tax amnesty subjected repatriated assets to a flat tax of 5%

The Bank of Italy estimated that Italian citizens held around €500bn in undeclared funds outside the country

In total around €80 billion in assets were declared, which resulted in tax revenues of €4 Billion

The assets need to be repatriated


Corporate income tax cut

Another potential big stimulus is from corporate tax rate cut from 25% to 18%. But, to get parliament approval

for income tax adjustment on the budget, government has to pass the tax amnesty bill to compensate the low-

er ‘income tax’ revenue.

Indonesia have applied this before in 2008 (effective per January 2009), with tax rate lowered from 30% to

28% and further to 25%. Cut in corporate income tax also will be followed by personal income tax cut which

also happened in the previous case. However, the government could still maintain the tax revenue target in the

corresponding year, meeting 102% income tax target and increase by 6.8% YoY.

Corporate income tax comprise around 54% from total income tax and targeted at Rp 408tn in 2016. Thus,

with lower tax rate will potentially cut government income tax revenue by Rp 64tn. But, the multiplier to econ-

omy could be bigger

Allowing foreigners to own property in Indonesia

Meanwhile, to encourage property sector, Government will allow foreigners to own Indonesia property with

strata title licence. One that has launched is foreign ownership in Special Economic Zone (SEZ/KEK). Some lim-

itations might apply such as minimum price and minimum floor. From what we heard, the property should be

above Rp 5bn and minimum at the 3rd floor ~ means not landed house.

According to BI data, apartment sales around Jabotabek has experienced slowest growth in Q1-2014 (4% YoY)

yet improving in Q2-2015 (12% YoY). However, the prices are down by 10% YoY as per June 2015 with aver-

age price around Jabotabek stand at Rp 21.3mn/sqm.

Income tax composition Corporate vs Personal income tax

Source: TRIM Research, MoF Source: TRIM Research, MoF

2015 APBN P 2016 RAPBN


Apartment sales data in Jabotabek Apartment selling price in Jabotabek

Source: TRIM Research, BI Source: TRIM Research, BI


Budget 2016 : More realistic number

The parliament has passed 2016 state budget on Oct 30. They are agreed for 5% increase in revenue

to Rp 1,848tn while spending is targeting to rise by 7% to Rp 2,121tn. Yet, lawmakers engaged in

debate over state capital injection (PMN) that resulted in a temporary moratorium on the disburse-

ment. The Golkar, PKS, and Gerindra fractions claimed that the capital injections were not worthy

and that the funds would have better used for other purposes, such as village fund. PMN for state

owned company worth Rp 39.4tn in RAPBN 2016 frozen until revised state budget passed. About

48% of it is allocated for infrastructure company, such as PT Sarana Multi Infrastruktur (Rp 5tn),

WIKA (Rp 3tn), PTPP (Rp 2tn), Hutama Karya (Rp 3tn), Jasa Marga (Rp 1.25tn), and etc.

APBN 2016

Source: MoF, TRIM Research

2015 2016

Details APBN-P APBN (Rp bn) (%)

A. Revenue 1,761.6 1,822.5 60.9 3.5%

Domestic Revenue 1,758.4 1,820.5 62.1 3.5%

Tax Revenue 1,489.3 1,546.7 57.4 3.9%

PPh 679.4 757.2 77.8 11.5%

PPN 576.5 571.7 (4.8) -0.8%

PBB 26.7 19.4 (7.3) -27.3%

Cukai 145.7 146.4 0.7 0.5%

Import Duty 37.2 37.2 (0.0) 0.0%

Export Duty 12.1 2.9 (9.2) -75.9%

Other 11.7 11.9 0.2 1.5%

Non-Tax Revenue 269.1 273.8 4.7 1.7%

Oil & Gas 81.4 78.6 (2.8) -3.4%

Non Oil & Gas 37.6 46.3 8.7 23.3%

SOE Dividend 37.0 34.2 (2.8) -7.5%

Other Non Tax Rev 90.1 79.4 (10.7) -11.9%

BLU 37.0 35.4 (1.6) -4.2%

Grant 3.1 2.0 (1.1) -35.5%

B. Expenditure 1,984.1 2,095.7 111.6 5.6%

Central Government 1,319.5 1,325.6 6.1 0.5%

Ministry 772.3 784.1 11.8 1.5%

i.e. Capital Spending 276.0 302.3 26.3 9.5%

Non Ministry 551.9 541.4 (10.5) -1.9%

i.e. Energy Subsidy 137.8 102.1 (35.7) -25.9%

Fuel, Gas, BBN 64.7 63.7 (1.0) -1.5%

Electricity 73.1 38.4 (34.7) -47.5%

i.e. Non-Energy Subsidy 74.3 80.5 6.2 8.4%

Additinal Govt Spending 20.9 - (20.9) -100.0%

Transfer to Region 641.6 723.2 81.6 12.7%

Village Fund 20.0 47.0 27.0 135.0%

C. Primary Balance (68.4) (88.2) (19.8) 29.0%

D. Fiscal Surplus (Deficit) (224.1) (273.2) (49.1) 21.9%

% Deficit to GDP (1.9) (2.1)

Changes APBN '16

vs APBN-P '15


Tax revenue only increase 3.9% YoY, align with stimulus mode

With Rp 1,822tn target for the revenue, government is aiming from tax and duty worth Rp 1,547tn (+3.9% YoY)

and non tax revenue worth Rp 274tn (+1.7% YoY). We think the number is more realistic noting that current

government focus is to give stimulus. Excise tax (cukai) target is only targeting to increase by 0.5% to Rp

146.4tn, means no significant change in excise tax rate next year. Latest cigarette tax increase was in November

from 8.7% (average) to 11.2% (average) to be effective per 1 Jan ‘16. Meanwhile, dividend target of SOE com-

panies is lower by 7.5% to Rp 34.2tn.

Capital spending allocate around Rp 300tn (+10% YoY)

For spending, targeted to be Rp 2,095.7tn include around Rp 300tn allocated for capital spending. Biggest in-

crease allocation is for village fund, by 135% YoY to Rp 47tn. Meanwhile, transfer to region is budgeted to in-

crease by 12.7% to Rp 723.2tn. For subsidy, energy subsidy is declined by 25.9% to Rp 102.1tn, driven by low-

er electricity subsidy (from Rp 73.1tn to Rp 38.4tn).

Tax Ratio Tax component



Capital spending realization YTD 2015 Ministry budget outlook


Fuel subsidy reform gave fiscal room Subsidy Vs Capital Spending (%)



Deficit financing strategy : higher global bond issuance

Thus, total deficit is account for Rp 273.2tn or 2.1% of GDP with addition of state capital injection plan worth Rp

48.4tn (yet still on freeze). To finance the deficit, government need to issue Rp 327.2tn—net government bond

or Rp 509.3tn-gross issuance. Portion of global bond issuance is targeted to increase from 25% to 30% of total

issuance, to lower supply pressure in domestic market. Government also estimated to have Rp 50tn excess cash

(SAL/Saldo Anggaran Lebih) from 2015 budget which could be used for 2016 financing.

Deficit Financing Plan (Rp tn)


Government Bond Issuance Target (Rp tn)


2015 2016

Details APBN-P APBN

I. Government Bonds (net) 297.70 326.27

II. Offshore Financing (net) (20.01) 1.20

1. Withdrawal 48.65 72.84

a. Program Loan 7.50 34.58

b. Project Loan 41.15 38.26

2. Loan extension to BUMN/Pemda (4.47) (5.91)

3. Loan repayment (64.18) (65.73)

III. Onshore Financing (net) 1.69 3.26

1. Withdrawal 2.00 3.71

2. Loan repayment (0.31) (0.45)

Total Loan Financing (net) 279.38 330.73

2013 2014 2015 F 2015 YTD 2016F

Net Issuances 236.5 277.0 299.3 358.5 326.3

Domestic bonds 263.7 342.2 362.3 331.0 356.5

Global bonds 58.4 86.0 90.6 113.6 152.8

Redemption & buybacks (85.5) (152) (154) (86.0) (183.0)

Gross Issuances 328.0 428.1 452.9 451 509.3

Total Domestic bonds 263.7 342.2 362.3 331.0 356.5

Conventional FR/VR 165.5 186.9 180.3

T-bills/ZC bonds 53.8 60.9 52.9

Retail bonds (ORI & Sukuk) 35.2 42.9 49.0

Domestic sukuk 9.3 38.5 42.8

Private placement - 13.0 6.0

10-yr Bond Yield (RHS) 6.9 8.2 7.9

Global bonds 58.4 86.0 90.6 113.6 152.8

Yankee bonds 39.1 48.5 51.2

Euro MTN 15.8 18.5

Global sukuks 17.0 17.7 26.3

Samurai Bonds - 0.0 10.9

USD SUN 2.3 4.0 6.7


GDP momentum to improve in 2016

Indonesia economy grew by 4.73% in 3Q 2015, a slight uplift from 4.67% in the previous quarter. On top of

government stimulus to add more money flow into the system; big infrastructure budget; and improving do-

mestic demand, we expect GDP momentum to increase further to 5.0% in 2016 (vs 4.80% 2016 est). The re-

covery will take in smooth pace as challenge from China deteriorating economy is still on the table. Lower com-

modity prices is expected to linger in 2016, add pressures to Indonesia trade especially CPO, coal, and rubber.

Expect stimulus to help domestic demand

Retail and consumers company still struggling in 2015. Retail companies under our sample bucket only booked

–5% SSSG growth in 3Q15. Gaikindo data showed that Indonesia car sales also declined by 18% YoY 9M15 as

well as motorcycle sales which dropped by 20%. But, 3Q momemtum is better than 2Q, especially motorcycle

which grew by 5% QoQ VS –1.6% QoQ of car sales. Consumers company also booked better sales in 3Q due to

lebaran effect, grew by 7% YoY vs 4% YoY in 2Q15. We also believe couple of stimulus launched by govern-

ment will improve private demand in the forthcoming quarter, despite need lag time around 6-12 months.

Standardized wage increase for labour

One of the economy stimulus packaged launched in October is also talk about employment. The government

set formula for provincial minimum wage increase per year to be : inflation + gdp growth. The base year will be

2015. We think it will benefit both for the employee and business player as they can certainly calculate the cost

increase for doing business in Indonesia.

World economy growth World trade volume growth

Source: TRIM Research, World Bank Source: TRIM Research, World Bank


Indonesia GDP growth contributor

Source: BPS, TRIM Research

Auto, cement sales, CCI (3 mo Moving Average)

Source: Bloomberg, TRIM Research


Meanwhile, investment was well on track

Investment and government spending were the two factors behind improving GDP momentum in 3Q15. Factors

that we can control, we control it well. According to BKPM data, investment realization has reached Rp 400tn

during 9M15 or gathered 77% of government target. It increase by 17% YoY in 3Q using IDR term while ad-

justing to USD term result in 11.2% YoY growth ~ faster than 2Q achievement of 10.5% YoY. With tax incen-

tive facility as well as tax amnesty which potentially attract Rp 400tn flow into system, we believe investment

(GFCF) component will be the main driver for higher GDP in 2016 which we expect to improve from 4.8% (est)

in 2015 to 5.0% in 2016.

Retail SSSG Consumers companies sales

Source: TRIM Research, Companies Source: TRIM Research, Companies

3Q investment growth faster than 2Q Sector wise

Source: TRIM Research, BKPM Source: TRIM Research, BKPM


Services sector, fuel growth for our GDP

Services sector contribute almost 50% to the Indonesia GDP growth, especially IT & Telecommunication busi-

ness, financials, and transportation. Means, Indonesia people keep their spending on telecommunication and

rising people also add contribution to telco sector. Meanwhile in term of investment, sector which attract high-

est new investment growth (in USD term) were construction, machinery, and transportation.

Total heavy equipment sales Heavy equipment breakdown

Source: TRIM Research, Company (UNTR) Source: TRIM Research, Company (UNTR)


GDP based on production

Source: TRIM Research, BPS

Loan growth

Source: MoF, TRIM Research, BI


Risk on China hard-landing

Fears on China hard landing has been disrupting market for the last three years. China’s economy slowing from

the peak 12% in 2010 to 6.9% by the latest this year (3Q) and a growth below 5% will be a cut-off for what is

called China hard landing. China government has put effort to avoid this happen and we know they devaluate

Yuan by 1.9% and cutting the interest rate by 25bps for the fifth time this year to 4.35% in October.

China shifting economy driver

China slowing economy was the consequence of structural changes from manufacture and investment based to

more service and consumption based. This action being taken for healthier growth in long term. Its manufactur-

ing activity has been slowed to the lowest pace in three years with the PMI index dropped from as high as 56 to

49.9 in October. Meanwhile, the non-manufacturing activity index remained high at 53. This clarifies China’s shift

from manufacture and investment to more consumption and services based. China is Indonesia’s number

three biggest export destination which account for 10% of our export. While from the import side,

Indonesia demanded around 20% of total import from China.

GDP China vs India vs Indonesia

Source: TRIM Research, CEIC


CAD to widen on rising infrastructure activity, weakened rupiah as the consequence

Indonesia external imbalance been saved by declining import activities. Fuel subsidy removal on top of declining

oil price has pressed down Indonesia’s oil import ~ deficit contributor ~ by 41% YoY YTD 2015. Fuel subsidy

budget lowered from Rp 240tn in 2014 to Rp 64.7tn in 2015 and Rp 63.7tn in 2016, following new fuel subsidy

policy effective per Jan 2015. From non oil & gas, biggest contributor for declining import value were raw mate-

rials and capital goods. What we need to watch is that declining import happens in capital goods instead of con-

sumptive product. It’s good that our import is decline yet we need to shift our import commodities. Our capital

goods import decline by 16.8% YoY YTD 2015 while consumers product dropped by –15.2% YoY.

Services account deficit also narrowed from USD 7.7bn 9M14 to USD 6.5bn 9M15 on more frequent tourist com-

ing post wider visa free and lower cargo loading transportation on slowing import.

Bigger infrastructure spending and pick up on consumption might widen Indonesia CAD to 2.27%% of GDP in

2016 vs 1.90% of GDP in 2015 (est) which lead to currency weakening. Stronger USD post the anticipated US

interest rate hike also will add another pressure to rupiah. We expect rupiah to hover at 14,100/USD by end of

2016 and 13,988/USD average level.

CAD

Source: TRIM Research, BI


Trade balance FDI & DDI

Source: TRIM Research Source: TRIM Research

Non oil & gas import detail

Source: TRIM Research


Inflation grounded at our low range estimate in 2015

Inflation going modestly during 2015 and coming down faster than expected. Out of 10 months 2015, Indonesia

experienced deflation 4 times in January & February post Jan’s fuel price cut and in September & October. Thus,

January-October 2015 inflation only recorded 2.16%. Going conservatively account November-December infla-

tion at 1.5% will result in 3.7% full year 2015 inflation Vs 4.5-5.5% our estimate and 3-5% of BI range.

Expect moderate inflation in 2016, which gave room for monetary loosening

We expect moderate inflation for 2016 at 5% on the back of persistently low oil price. Bloomberg consensus ex-

pect oil price will hover around USD 55/barrel in 2016. The downside is if oil price jump to USD 70/barrel ~ con-

sistent in 3 months ~ and weakening rupiah is faster than expected. With those moderate inflation level, BI has

room to lower interest rate but we think the central bank should wait for clearer signal from US regarding its

interest rate movement.

Inflation

Source: TRIM Research, CEIC


Economy in a brief

Month Survey Actual Previous Revised

CPI Inflation (% MoM) Oct ‘15 -0.02 -0.08 -0.05

CPI Inflation (% YoY) Oct ‘15 6.38 6.25 6.83

Core Inflation (% YoY) Oct ‘15 5.05 5.02 5.07

Trade Balance (USD mn) Oct ‘15 725 1,019 1,017 1384

BI Rate (%) Nov ‘15 7.50 7.50 7.50

GDP (% YoY) 3Q 15 4.80 4.73 4.67

Source: Bloomberg, TRIM Research

Inflation re-base

Source: CEIC, TRIM Research

Household expenditure group 2002 2007 2012

Raw food 25.5 19.6 18.9

Processed food, beverage, cigarette, & tobacco 17.9 16.6 16.2

Housing, water, electricity, gas, & fuel 25.6 25.4 25.4

Clothing 6.4 7.1 7.3

Health 4.3 4.5 4.7

Education, recreation. & sport 6.0 7.8 8.5

Transportation, communication, & financial 14.3 19.1 19.2

Source: BI, BPS, TRIM Research

Nominal and real interest rate

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trimegah economy 20151120 economy outlook 2016 2

Documents

government stimulus

year of stimulus

rupiah usd eop

rupiah usd avg

bi rate

stronger usd

indonesia gdp growth

rate loosening