Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m2007-2008 Jonathan Morduch1Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du Ha hn ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch1 1.Dn nhp Trn ton cu c khong mt t ngi sng trong nhng h gia nh c thu nhp trn u ngi khng n mt USD mt ngy. Nhng nh hoch nh chnh sch v nhng ngi thc thi c gng ci thin i sng ca mt t ngi ny ang phi i mt vi mt cuc chin cam go. Cc bo co v tnh trng ln xn quan liu v tham nhng khng th kim sot ni th trn ngp khp ni. V nhiu ngi hin tin rng s h tr ca chnh ph dnh cho ngi ngho thng to ra tnh trng l thuc v gim st tinh thn c gng, lm cho vn licngtit hnchchng phi tt p hn. Hn th na,bt chp hng thp nin vin tr, cc cng ng v cc gia nh xem ra vn ngy cng rn nt, phi by mt nn tng c xy dng mong manh.Gia nhng tin tc lm nht ch y, nim hng phn c xy dng t mt tp hp cc t chc ti chnh khc thng pht trin nhng min t xa xi ca th gii c bit l Bolivia, Bangladesh, v Indonesia. Hy vng l phn ln tnh trng i ngho s c xo b v c cu kinh t x hi c th chuyn bin mt cch c bn thng qua cung ng dch v ti chnh cho cc h gia nh thu nhp thp. Cc t chc ny thng nht di ngn c tichnhvim,cngcamktphcvnhngkhchhngbkhuvcngnhngchnh thc t chi. Gn nh tt c nhng ngi i vay u i vay ti tr cho cc hot ng kinhdoanhtlmchcah,vnhiungikhinghipchvimtkhonvay75 USD, hon tr sau vi thng hay mt nm. Ch c mt vi chng trnh i hi ngi vay phi c ti sn th chp, gip cc nghip ch tng lai vi ti sn ngho nn c th thot khi hon cnh nh nng hay ngi lm thu vi ng lng t i. Mtschngtrnhchphcvmtnhmnhngivay,trongkhiccchngtrnh khc h tr cho hng triu ngi. Trong hai thp nin va qua, nhiu chng trnh mi v cngadngctinhnhchuPhi,chu,MLatin,Canadavkhong300 vngtrnncMtNewYorkchonSanDiego(TheEconomist1997).Trnton cu, hin c khong 8 n 10 triu gia nh ang c cc chng trnh ti chnh vi m phc v, v mt s ngi thc hin chnh sch ny ang y mnh vic m rng qui m phcvcho100triuhnghovonm2005.NhJamesWolfensohn,chtchNgn 1 i hc Princeton. Jmorduch@Princeton.edu. Ti xin cm n nhng nhn xt ca Harold Alderman, Anne Case,JonathanConning,PeterFidler,KarlaHoff.MargaretMadajewicz.JohnPencavel,MarkSchreiner, JayRosengard,J.D.vonPischke,vbangichngnhnkhuytdanh.Ticngbitncccuctho lunviAbhhijitBanerjee,DavidCutler,DonJohnston,AlbertPark,MarkPitt,MargueritteRobinson, ScottRozelle,MichaelWoolcok,vnhngngithamdhithoihcBrown,HIID,vihc Tiu bang Ohio. Aimee Chin v Milissa Day h tr nghin cu mt cch xut sc. Mt phn cng vic nghin cu c ti tr bi Vin Pht trin Quc t Harvard, v ti xin cm n s h tr ca Jeffrey Sachs vDavidBloom.TicngxincmnlnghiukhchcaNgnhngRakyatIndonesiaJakartavo thng8-1996vcaNgnhngGrameen,BRACvccnhnvinASABangladeshvomahnm 1997. Bi vit ny phn ln c hon tt trong mt nm nh mt cng vic nghin cu ca Hi vin quc giaVinHoover,ihcStanford.VicchnhsabivitchonttvishtrcaQuMac-Acthur Foundation. Phin bn u tin ca bi vit ny c lu hnh vi ta Cuc cch mng ti chnh vi m. Bi vit ny ch phn nh cc quan im ca ti m thi. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch2Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du hngThgiitngni,gip100triugianhcnghalscn500-600triu ngi ngho c hng li. Ngi ta c th d kin s tng cng hot ng Hoa K khi cc ngn hng chuyn sang hot ng ti chnh vi m c khuyn khch bi nhng qui nh mi b sung cho Lut Ti u t Cng ng nm 1977 (Timothy OBrien 1998). Ccchngtrnhnhmvoccphtminhnhhpngchovaytheonhmvcc quan im mi v tr cp c xem l yu t then cht thnh cng. Cc hp ng cho vay theo nhm thc cht lm cho nhng ngi lng ging ca ngi vay tr thnh nhng ngi ng k kt khon vay, lm gim nh vn kh khn gy ra do tnh trng thng tin khng cn xng gia ngi vay v ngi cho vay. Nhng ngi lng ging gi y c ngcgimstlnnhauvloitrnhngngivay rirorakhihpng,y mnh vic hon tr khon vay ngay c khi khng c cc yu cu th chp. Cc hp ng ny thu ht s ch ca cc nh l thuyt kinh t, v mang li s tha nhn trn ton cu v m hnh cho vay theo nhm ca Ngn hng Grameen Bangladesh.2 Ni bt nht l khng c s bt ng kin chung. Ti chnh vi m dng nh mang li mt gii php tt thng chomi ngi,trong c cc t chcti chnh v khch hng nginghouhngli.Lyvd,hithnhttrongmtcuchuyndinmhi trn t San Francisco Examiner, bt u vi cu chuyn v bn ngi ph n c h tr bng ti chnh vi m: mt nh phn phi hng dt may Ahmedabad, n ; mt ngi bn hng rong Cairo, Ai Cp; mt ngh s Albuquerque, New Mexico; v mt nh ch to g Bc California. Cu chuyn tip tc: T nhng khu nh chut ti tn v nhng lng qu ngho nn th gii ang pht trin chonccnithnhphmtmivnhngvngngoithnhxxcnhngvng ven ca nc M, nhng ngi ny v hng triu ph n khc to nn ton th cuc cch mng.MtvingicthgilcuccchmngchnghatbnChvi25 USD hay 50 USD trong th gii ang pht trin, hay c l 500 USD hay 5000 USD Hoa K, nhng khon vay vi m ny lm nn s khc bit to ln trong i sng con ngi Nhng ngn hng Th gii Th ba ang nhn thy rng cho ngi ngho vay khng ch n thun l lm mt iu tt m cn c ngha l li nhun (Brill 1999). Nhng ngi ng h thin v cnh t lm r cc kha cnh di y x hi, quan tm n cng ng, tp trung vo ph n, v quan trng hn c l mc ch cu gip nhng ngi khng c phc v y . Chng phi trng hp m s gia tng ti chnh vi m song hnh vi s tri dy cacct chc phichnh ph(NGO) trong cc chu k chnh sch v s ch mi m ca gii hc thut dnh cho ngun vn x hi (v d nh ti liu ca Rober Putnam 1993). Nhng ngi thin v cnh hu nu bt trin vng xo i gim ngho ng thi mang li ng c thi thc lm vic, tinh thn lnh o phi chnh ph, vic s dng nhng c ch vn hnh theo cc lc th trng, v s nghi ng chung v vic tr cp ang tip din. 2 Cc nghin cu l thuyt gn y v ti chnh vi m bao gm nghin cu ca Joseph Stiglitz 1990; Hal Varian1990;TimothyBeslayvStephenCoate1995;AbhijitBanerjee,Besley,vTimothyGuinnanne 1992; Maitreesh Ghatak 1998; Mansoora Rashid v Robert Townsend 1993; Beatriz Armendariz de Aghion v Morduch 1998; Armendariz v Christuan Goller 1997; Margaret Madajewicz 1998; Aliou Diagne 1998; Bruce Wydick 1999; Jonathan Conning 1997; Edward S. Prescott 1997; v Loic Sadoulet 1997. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch3Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du C nhng l do chnh ng cho nim hng phn v tin ca ti chnh vi m, c bit trong bi cnh chnh tr, th nhng cng c nhng l do vng chc cho s thn trng. Xo ngho thng qua ngn hng l mt tng c k vi mt qu kh c kim nghim. Xonghothngquacungngtndnguiltrngtmcanhiuchinlcpht trin nhiu nc t u thp nin 50 cho n thp nin 80, th nhng nhng tri nghim ny gn nh hon ton l nhng thm ho. T l hon tr n vay thng ri xung di 50phntrm;chiphtndnguitngvt;vphnlncckhontndngc chuyn sang cho nhng ngi c th lc chnh tr ch khng phi ngi l ra c hng li theo chnh sch (Dale Adams, Douglas Graham, v J. D. von Pischke 1984). Vy ti chnh vi m c g mi khng? Cho d rt t chng trnh i hi phi c ti sn th chp, cc chng trnh mi bo co t l hon tr n vay trong hu ht cc trng hp ln n trn 95 phn trm. Cc chng trnh xem ra cng n vi nhng c nhn ngho, c bit l ph n, m qua nhng cch tip cn khc tht kh m vn n c. Khng cninomiunyntngchobngBangladesh,mttncHigiotheo truyn thng vn c xem l mt t nc bo th v vn ho v trng nam khinh n. Cc chng trnh hp li phc v c gn nm triu ngi vay, phn ln trong s l ph n, v ngoi vic cung ng cc khon vay, mt s chng trnh cn gip gio dc cc vn y t, vai tr gii tnh v cc quyn hp php. Cc chng trnh mi cng thot khiqukhthngquatrnhnsthamgiasustcachnhphvthngquach nhiu hn n cc ng c thi thc hot ng hiu qu. Nhng mi vic ang din ra nhanh chng v ngy cng nhanh hn. Vo nm 1997, mt tp hp rm r bao gm cc nh hoch nh chnh sch, cc qu t thin, v nhng ngi thc thi chnh sch khi xng mt chng trnh huy ng hn 20 t USD tin hnh hotngtichnhvimtrongminmti(MicrocreditSummitReport1997).Phn lnnguntinnychuyngvphnphincctchcmi,chackim nghim,vccngunlchinhuctiphnbtccchngtrnhxongho truynthngchuynsanghotngtichnhvim.Vinguntitrrtvo,nhng ngi thc hin gn nh khng c ng c g thoi lui v t cu hi mt cch chnh xc v cch thc v ni no ng tin s c chi tiu mt cch tt nht. Tuy nhin, bng chng m t di y cho thy rng tin to ln nht ca ti chnh vi m cho ti gi vn cha c p ng, v nhng lun iu to bo nht khng th ng vng trc s xem xt cht ch. Nh phn 4 cho thy, hu ht cc chng trnh tip tc c tr cp trc tip bng tin vin tr v gin tip thng qua cc iu khon mm ca cckhonvaytnhtitr.Hnna,nhngchngtrnhhovnvmttichnh khngphilnhngchngtrnhcthchinphcvnhngkhchhngngho nht. Mt iu trami y cho thy rng ngay c nhng chng trnh tp trung vo i nghovimtcamkttcsbnvngvmttichnhcngchthuhic khong70phntrmtonbchiph(MicroBankingBulletin1998).Trongkhinhiu ngi hy vng rng thnh qu ti chnh yu km s ci thin dn theo thi gian, ngay c nhng chng trnh k cu tp trung vo i ngho nh Ngn hng Grameen cng s gp phi nhng kt thc phin phc nu khng tip tc c tr cp. Sphthuclintcvotrcpmanglichoccnhtitrtingnimnhm, nhng tr tru thay, h li s dng ting ni ch trch vic tip tc tr cp. Ni e s lp li sailm qu kh y cc nh ti tr n lp lun rng tr cp ch nn c s Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch4Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du dng thu hi chi ph khi s. Nhng nu ng tin c chi tiu cho ti chnh vi m gip p ng ccmc tiu x hi theo nhng cch thcmkhng th t c qua cc chng trnh khc nhtr cp lao ng hay vin tr lng thc trc tip, ti sao khng tiptctrcpchotichnhvim?Liuthgiickhmkhhnkhngnunhng chng trnh nh Ngn hng Grameen buc phi ng ca? tr li nhng cu hi ny, chng ta phi nghin cu cc tc ng x hi v thng tin v h s khch hng theo thu nhp v ngh nghip. Tuy nhin, nhng ngi lp lun t quan im chng tr cp (cho rng ti chnh vi m l gii php tt thng, c ngn hng v nginghoucli)xemrachngbunthuthpnhngsliuny.Mtllbo chachorng,gisquanimgiiphpttthnglng(nghalvictnglisut thc ln n mc gn 40% mt nm s khng lm xi mn mt cch nghim trng su tcngcachngtrnh),khnngngvngvmttichnhschngminh tc ng x hi. Nhng quyt on nh th th khng nh qu, v lp lun bao qut hn khng hng hn nu khng c bng chng h tr. Nhng chng trnh tp trung vo i ngho phn bin rng, vic chuyn dch ton b chi ph ln khch hng s c th xi mn cc mc tiu x hi, nhng cng nh trn, khng c bng chng trc tip v vic ny. C khng bit bao nhiu giai thoi v cc tc ng kinh tvxhisusc,nhnggnnhkhngcnhngnghincunhgicctcng vi nhm x l c chn la cn thn v cc nhm kim sot (hay cc nhm kim sot thucbtkloino),vnhngnghincuhincmanglimtbctranhlnlnv cctcng.Ngoira,cngkhngcnhiucngtrnhthcnghimvngchcv nhy ca cu tn dng trc li sut hay v mc to ra yu t ngoi tc i vi nhng ngi khng i vay ca cc chng trnh c tr cp. Mt phn vn l bn thn cc chngtrnh cng khng c ngckhuyn khch ngitahon tt cc nghincu v tc ng. Cc n lc thu thp s liu c th tn km chi ph v ri rm, v cc kt qu e do xi mn sc mnh hng bin ca nhng chng c mang tnh giai thoi.Bngchnggintipchtcngnghnhngngicnhgicvilplunchngtr cp. Nu khng c s liu tt hn, qui m khon vay bnh qun thng c s dng i din cho mc ngho (vi gi nh l ch c nhng h gia nh ngho hn mi sn lng vay mn nhng khon vay nh nht). Mt ngi i vay tiu biu trong cc chng trnh tchvtichnhcgitrkhonvaybnhqunvokhong430USDvigitr khon vay thng cao hn (MicroBanking Bulletin 1998). nhng nc thu nhp thp, nhng ngi vay mc c xu hng l nhng ngi ngho khm kh hn hay thm ch nm v tr hi cao hn mc i ngho. Vic m rng cc dch v ti chnh theo cch ny c th y mnh hiu qu kinh t v c th y mnh c tng trng kinh t theo lp lun ca Valerie Bencivenga v Bruce D. Smith (1991), nhng khng trc tip nh hng n s ng h ngho. Ngc li, phn 4.1 chng minh rng khch hng tiu biu trong nhng chng trnh (c tr cp) tp trungmnh vo xo ngho c khon vay bnh qun ch vo khong 100 USD. Nhng ngi thc thi chnh sch v cc nh nghin cu d tnh tin xa hn cc tho lun ban u ang thc hin cc bc quan trng k tip (v d nh Gary Woller, Christopher Dunford, v Warner Woodworth 1999). Tin ca ti chnh vi m c tm thy s i mi: cc c cu qun l mi, cc hp ng mi, v thi mi. Cc chng trnh dn u c tin hnh thng qua phng php th dn v loi b sai st. Mt khi cc c ch Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch5Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du vn hnh mt cch tri chy hp l, vic chun ho v ti to tr thnh nhng u tin hng u, v s i mi tip theo ch c thc hin cho nhng hot ng b tr bn l m thi. Hu qu l, phn ln cc chng trnh khng c thit k mt cch ti u m cng khng nht thit mang li cc sn phm ti chnh ng mong i nht. Mc d hp ng cho vay theo nhm l pht minh c hoan nghnh nht trong ti chnh vi m, tt c nhngchngtrnhsdngnhiusnphmimikhccthcngquantrngnh th, c bit l cc dng ng c khuyn khch khc nhau v cc lch trnh tr n. Theo ngha ny, l thuyt kinh t v ti chnh vi m (m gn nh ch hon ton tp trung vo hp ng cho vay theo nhm) i xa hn cc bng chng thc t. Mt phn tin ca cc nh ti tr t s c chi tiu ng n cho vic nh lng vai tr ca cc c ch trng lp nhau ny v h tr cho n lc xc nh nhng cch kt hp c ch t tn km hn phc v khch hng ngho trong cc bi cnh khc nhau. Cc c cu qun l mi,nh ccuthogdncaHiphiTinbXhicaBangladesh,cthgipctgim mnhchiph.Ccsnphmmi,nhkhochtitkimlinhhotSafeSaveca Bangladesh c th vch ra mt l trnh khc t c tnh bn vng v ti chnh ng thi vn gip cc h ngho. Bi hc lu di v ti chnh vim l cc c ch l quan trng: ton b tin ca ti chnh vi m ch c th hin thc ho thng qua quay tr li vi cc cam kt ban u v thc nghim, i mi v nh gi. Phn tip theo m t cc chng trnh hng u. Phn 3 xem xt cc quan im l thuyt. Phn4chuynsangtnhbnvngvmttichnh,vphn5xemxtnhngvn xung quanh chi ph v li ch ca vic tr cp. Phn 6 m t cc nh gi kinh t lng v tc ng v phn 7 chuyn t tn dng sang tit kim. Phn cui kt lun vi vic xem xt ti chnh vi m trong bi cnh bao qut hn ca pht trin kinh t. 2. Cc cch tip cn mi T lu ngi ta vn cho rng vic cho cc h gia nh ngho vay l c nguy c tht bi: chi ph qu cao, ri ro quln, xu hng titkim qu thp, v him h no c ca ci lm ti sn th chp. Khng lu trc y, cch lm thng thng l cc ngn hng ca chnh ph s cung ng tn dng tr cp cho h vi t l hon tr tt nht l 70-80%. Ly v d Bangladesh, cc khon cho vay nhm vo cc h ngho ca cc ngn hng truyn thng c t l hon tr l 51,6% vo nm 1980. Vo nm 1988-89, mt nm ngp lt ti t, t l hon tr gim xung 18,8% (M. A. Khalily v Richard Meyer 1993). Tng t, nm 1986, t l hon tr ri xung 41% i vi nhng khon tn dng tr cp tng c cung ng nh mt phn ca Chng trnh Pht trin Nng thn Hi nhp rm r ca n (Robert Pulley 1989). Cc chng trnh ny cung ng tn dng tr cp mnh da trn tin l cc h gia nh ngho khng th vay mn vi li sut cao. Nhng chiphnhanhchng tng vt vcc chngtrnhchngmy chc htcnngn schnhncvccngnhngkhngcngcgmrnghotng.Hnna, nhiu ngn hng buc phi gim li sut huy ng b p cho li sut cho vay thp. trng thi cn bng, ngn hng huy ng c t tin tit kim hn, t cung ng c tn dng hn, v t l v n gia tng khi ngi vay bt u nhn thy rng ngn hng khng th duy tr mi c. Nhng tht bi lin tip dng nh khng nh mi nghi ng rng cchnghokhngcuytntndngmcngchngthtitkimcbaonhiu. Ngoi ra, tn dng tr cp thng b chuyn sang cho nhng h khng ngho nhng c Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch6Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du uivchnhtr(AdamsvvonPischke1992).Btknhngnhttp,nhiu chng trnh t ra tn km v khng gip c g nhiu cho ngi ngho nh d kin. Kinh nghim ca Ngn hng Grameen Bangladesh xoay chuyn tnh th, v hin nay nhiu t chc ti chnh ang cung ng nhiu m hnh ti chnh vi m khc vi cc trit l khcnhauvccnhmmctiukhcnhau.Cctchctinphongkhccmt diygmBancoSolcaBolivia,NgnhngRakyatIndonesia,NgnhngCredit DesaIndonesia,vccngnhnglngxdoQuHtrCngngQuct(FINCA) thnh lp. Cc chng trnh di y c chn minh ho cho s a dng ca cc c ch ang s dng, v bng 1 trnh by cc c ch c th. S vn hnh ca cc c ch s c m t k hn trong phn 3.3 Bng 1Cc c im ca cc chng trnh ti chnh vi m hng u chn lc Ngn hng Grameen, Bangladesh BancoSol, Bolivia Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI),n v Desa Bank Kredit Desa (BKD), Indonesia Cc ngn hng lng x ca FINCA S thnh vin2,4 triu81.5032 triu ngi vay, 16 triu ngi gi tin 765.58689.986 Gi tr khon vay bnh qun 134 USD909 USD1007 USD71 USD191 USD K hn vay tiu biu 1 nm4-12 thng3-24 thng3 thng4 thng Phn trm thnh vin ph n 95%61%23%--95% Ch yu nng thn? Thnh th? Nng thnThnh thCh yu nng thn Nng thnCh yu nng thn Hp ng cho vay theo nhm? CCKhngKhngKhng Yu cu th chp?KhngKhngCKhngKhng Ch trng vo tit kim t nguyn? KhngCCKhngC Cho vay lu tin?CCCCC Lch tr n thng xuyn Hng tunLinh hotLinh hotLinh hotHng tun Khch hng cho vay mc tiuNgi nghoCh yu l ngi khng ngho Khng nghoNgi nghoNgi ngho Bn vng v ti chnh hin ti? KhngCCCKhng Li sut vay danh ngha (mt nm) 20%47,5-50,5%32-43%55%36-45% Lm pht gi tiu dng hng nm, 1996 2,7%12,4%8,0%8,0%-- Ngun: Ngn hng Grameen: thng 8-1998, ww.grameen.com; gi tr khon vay l t thng 12-1996 theo tnh ton ca tc gi. BancoSol: thng 12-1998, t Jean Steege, ACCION International, traoi trc tip. Lisutbaogmhoahngvchocckhonvaytnhbngngtinboliviano;lisutcbnchocc 3Phn4.1v5.1mtsliuthngkvnhiuchngtrnh.TmctiliucaMariaOterov ElisabethRhyne(1994);MicroBankingBulletin(1998);ErnstBruggervSarathRajapatirana(1995); David Hulme v Paul Mosley (1996); v Elaine Edgcomb, Joyce Klein, v Peggy Clark (1996). Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch7Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du khon vay bng USD l 25-31%. BRI v BKD: thng 12-1994 (BKD) v thng 12-1996 (BRI), t s liu hngnmcaBRIvDonJohnston,traoitrctip.LisutcaBRIllisuthiudng.FINCA: thng7-1998,www.villagebanking.org.Tllmpht:NgnhngThgii,Ccchbophttrinth gii 1998. 2.1Ngn hng Grameen, Bangladesh tngNgnhngGrameenthchinkhngxutphttgiihcthut,mcng chngbtnguntnhngttngccncthunhpcaorilantruynrngkhp.4 NhngchngtrnhcxydngBcCarolina,thnhphNewYork,Chicago, Boston, v Washing D.C. trch dn Grameen nh mt ngun cm hng ca h. Ngoi ra,mhnhchovaytheonhmcaGrameencnctitoBolivia,Chile,Trung Quc,Ethiopia,Honduras,n,Malaysia,Mali,Philippines,SriLanka,Tanzania, ThiLan,HoaK,vVitNam.HiBillClintoncnlthngcbang,chnh MuhammadYunus,ngisnglpNgnhngGrameen(vlmtnhkinhthc Vanderbilt)cmingipthnhlpQuGoodFaithArkansas,mttrong nhng t chc ti chnh vi m u tin Hoa K. Nh Yunus (1995) m t s khi u: Bangladeshxyramtnnikinhhongvonm1974.Lcbygitiangdy kinh t hc mt trng i hc Bangladesh. Bn c th on kh khn bit chng no khi rao ging cc l thuyt kinh t m miu gia lc dn chng ang cht i xung quanh. Cc l thuyt xem ra ht nh nhng cu chuyn a kch cm. Ti tr thnh nh kinh t hc chnh thc b d na chng. Ti mun hc kinh t t nhng ngi ngho ngi lng k bn khun vin trng i hc. Yunus nhn thy phn ln dn lng khng th thu c tn dng vi li sut hp l, v th ngbtubngcchchohvaytincachnhmnh,gipdnlngmuavttcho nhng d n nh lm gh an bng tre v r st tre (New York Times 1997). Mi nm sau, Yunus thnh lp ngn hng, rt ra bi hc kinh nghim t cc t chc ti chnh phi chnhthcchchuynchovayccnhmhgianhngho.Cckhonvaythng c s dng ch bin go, nui gia sc, v cc mt hng th cng truyn thng. Cc nhm vay thnh lp mt cch t nguyn v mc d khon vay c dnh cho cc c nhn, mi ngi trong nhm u c trch nhim hon tr khon vay. Mi nhm bao gm 4 Mt phn cm hng ca m hnh ny xut pht t vic quan st cc hp tc x tn dng Bangladesh v iu th v l cc hp tc x ny li c ci r t chu u. Cui th k 19 chu u bng n cc hp tc x tn dng c thit k nhm gip cc h gia nh thu nhp thp tit kim v c c tn dng. Cc hp tc x do Frederick Raiffeisen khi xng pht trin phc v 1,4 triu ngi c vo nm 1910 v c m phng Ireland v bc (Guinnane 1994 v 1997; Aidan Hollis v Arthur Sweetman 1997). Vo thp nin 1880, chnh quyn Madras Nam n lc by gi l thuc a Anh hc tp kinh nghim ca c tm bin php gii quyt i ngho n . Nm 1912, hn bn trm nghn ngi ngho n thuc v cc hp tc x tn dng mi v n nm 1946, thnh vin ca cc hp tc x ny ln n hn 9 triu ngi (R. Bedi 1992, c trch dn trong ti liu ca Michael Woolcock 1998). Cc hp tc x c duy tr bang Bengal, m khu vc pha ng tr thnh ng Pakistan khi dnh c lp vo nm 1947 v hinlBangladesh.Vouthpnin1900,cchptcxtndngcaBengalnitingnmc Edward Filene, thng nhn Boston c nhng ca hng hin vn cn mang tn ng, b nhiu thi gian n , tm hiu v cc hp tc x nhm sau ny thit lp cc chng trnh tng t Boston, New York v Providence (Shelly Tenenbaum 1993). Cc hp tc x tn dng cui cng cn hi Bangladesh, nhng khi nim cho vay theo nhm c thit lp v sau nhiu thc nghim v bin i, tr thnh nn tng cho m hnh Grameen. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch8Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du 5ngivay,trongkhonvaytrctincdnhchohaingi,saunhai ngi tip theo, v n ngi th nm. Cc nhm 5 ngi ny t chc hp hng tun vi 7 nhm khc, nhn vin ngn hng c th gp 40 khch hng cng mt lc. Theo lut, nu mt thnh vin v n, tt c cc thnh vin trong nhm s b t chi cc khon vay tip theo. u im ca cc hp ng cho vay l c c thng tin a phng v ti sn x hi, l trng tm ca c ch cng ch thi hnh a phng. Cc c ch ny da vo mi quan h bo him phi chnh thc v nhng mi e do t nguy c b c lp vi a phng hay s trng pht vt cht, to iu kin thun li cho vic cho vay i vi nhng h gia nh khng c ti sn th chp (Besley v Coate1995). Nh vy, cc chng trnh ny kt hp li th v qui m ca mt ngn hng tiu chun vi nhng c ch t lu vn c s dng trong hot ng ti chnh phi chnh thc truyn thng da vo nhm, nh cc hip hi tn dng v tit kim lun phin, hay gi nm na l chi hi (Besley, Coate, v Glenn Loury 1993).5 NgnhngGrameenhinchnhaitriungivay,95%trongslphn,nhn c cc khon vay tng cng l 30-40 triu USD mt thng. T l hon tr theo bo co miybnhqunkhong97-98%,nhngnhphn4.2mt,tlbnhqunthts vo khong 92% v gim ng k trong nhng nm gn y. Huhtcckhonvaycthihnmtnmvilisutdanhngha20%(lisutthc khong 15%). Tuy nhin, cc tnh ton trnh by trong phn 4.2 cho thy Grameen l ra phitnhlisutdanhnghakhong32%thmicthhontonbnvngvmtti chnh c (nu gi c cu chi ph hin nay khng i). Ban gim c lp lun rng vic gia tng li sut cho vay nh vy s xi mn s mnh ca ngn hng (Shahidur Khandker 1998), nhng khng c bng chng xc ng cho thy iu cp n ng vn . Grameen c xem nh hnh nh ni bt ca mt nh pht minh u tin trong hot ng ti chnh vi m v c nghin cu k lng. Cc nh gi v thnh qu ti chnh ca Ngn hng ny c m t di y trong phn 4.2; phn 5.1 trnh by cc chi ph v li ch, v phn 6.3 xem xt cc tc ng kinh t x hi. 2.2BancoSol, Bolivia BancoSolidario(gittBancoSol)Boliviacngchovaytheonhmnhngkhcvi Grameen theo nhiu cch.6 Th nht, ngn hng ny ch trng vo hot ng ngn hng ch khng phi dch v ti chnh. Th hai, cc khon vay c dnh cho cc thnh vin 5 Trong hip hi tn dng v tit kim lun phin (rotating savings and credit association, vit tt ROSCA, thng c gi l chi hi), mt nhm ngi tham d gp tin trao cho mt thnh vin. Vic ny c lp li nhiu ln theo thi gian cho n khi mi thnh vin u n lt, v th t nhn tin c xc nh theo danh sch, bc thm, hay b thu (b hi). Hu ht cc hp ng tn dng vi m c xy dng trn vicsdngccnhmnhnghuyngvntbnngoi.NhngngithamgiaROSCA(hivin) thng l ph n, v Hoa K, hot ng chi hi rt si ng trong cc cng ng dn mi nhp c nh gianhngngiHnQuc,VitNam,Mexico,Salvadore,Guatemala,Trinidad,Jamaica,Barbada,v Ethiopy.VicthamgiachihicangiMgcNhtvHoatrckiacngrtsingnhnghin khng cn ph bin lm (Light v Pham 1996). Rutherford (1998), Armedariz v Morduch (1998) cng m t s lin h gia chi hi v cc c ch ti chnh vi m. 6ThngtintichnhlytJeanSteege,ACCIONInternational,traoicnhn,thng1-1999.Claudio Gonzalez Vega v nhng ngi khc (1997) c nhng thng tin chi tit hn v BancoSol. C th tm thm thng tin a ch http://www.accion.org. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch9Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du nhm mt cch ng thi, v cc nhm on kt c th c thnh lp bao gm t ba n by thnh vin. D vy, ngn hng khng ngng pht trin v cng bt u cho vay cnhn.Vocuinm1998,92%danhmcchovaydnhchoccnhmonktv 98% khch hng thuc cc nhm on kt, nhng c th cc t l ny s gim dn theo thigian.Vocuinm1998,28%danhmccmtdngbomnochkhng ch n thun l nhm on kt. Th ba, li sut tng i cao. Trong khi lm pht nm 1998 l di 5%, cc khon vay bng ng bolivano c li sut c bn hng nm ln n 48%, cng vi 2,5 phn trm hoa hng tr trc. Khch hng vi h s hot ng vng chc c cho vay vi li sut 45% mt nm, song li sut ny vn cn cao hn nhiu so vi Grameen (nhng khng cao hn sovinhngngichovaythngthng,cthtnhn10%mtthng).Tuynhin, khong 70-80% cc khon vay l bng USD, v nhng khon vay c li sut 24-30% mt nm, vi 1% ph tr trc. Th t, do tnh nhng mc li sut cao ny, Ngn hng khng da vo tr cp, to ra mt sinh li ng k t vic cho vay. BancoSol bo co sut sinh li t vn s hu gn 30% vo cui nm 1998 v sut sinh li t ti sn khong 4,5 phn trm, nhng con s tht l n tng so vi u t ph Walld vy, viciuchnh ri ros lm thay i tnh hnh. Th nm, lch tr n c tnh linh hot, cho phpmt s ngi vay c th hon tr hngtunvnhngngikhchontrhngthng.Thsu,thihnvaycnglinh hot. Vo cui nm 1998, khong 10% cc khon vay c thi hn t mt n bn thng, 24% c thi hn bn n by thng, 23% c thi hn by n mi thng, 19 phn trm c thi hn t mi n mi ba thng, v s cn li ko di n hai nm. Th by, ngi vay ca BancoSol kh gi hn so vi Bangladesh v cc khon vay ln hnvigitrkhonvaybnhquncaohn900USD,nhiuhnchnlnsovi Grameen (cho d nhng khon vay u tin c th bt u vi mc thp nh 100 USD). Nh vy, trong khi BancoSol phc v khch hng ngho, mt nghin cu mi y nhn thy khch hng tiu biu ca h thuc din giu nht trong nhng ngi ngho v t tp ngay trn mc i ngho (qua nh ngha i ngho l da vo s tip cn mt tp hpccnhucucbnnhchvgiodc;SergioNavajasvnhngngikhc 1998).Mtphniunycthldostrngthnhdndncakhchhngt nhngngivaynghotrthnhnhngngivaynghohn,nhnghskhch hng xem ra cng rt khc so vi h s khch hng trng thnh ca cc chng trnh tiu biu Nam . Vic ch trng vo kha cnh ti chnh lm cho BancoSol tr thnh mt trong nhng lc lng then cht trong h thng ngn hng Bolivia. T chc ny khi nghip nh mt t chc phi chnh ph (PRODEM) vo nm 1987, tr thnh ngn hng vo nm 1992, v vo cui nm 1998, phc v 81.503 khch hng thu nhp thp. Qui m mang li cho ngn hng khong 40% ngi vay trong ton b h thng ngn hng Bolivia. Mt phn thnh cng l do kt qu hon tr n vay tht n tng, cho d kh khn ang bt u xut hin. Khng nh hu ht cc t chc ti chnh vi m khc, BancoSol bo co nquhntheocctiuchunrtthntrng:nuvichontrnvaybquhnmt ngy,tonbsdchatrscxemlangbeda(ngayckhivichontr theo k hoch ch c ln lch tr mt phn). Theo nhng tiu chun ny, 2,03% ca Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch10Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du danh mc ang b ri ro vo cui nm 1997. Nhng vo cui nm 1998, t l ny tng ln n 4,89%, mt xu hng song hnh vi tnh trng suy yu chung trong ton b h thng ngnhngBoliviavcthbohiunhngnhhngtiucccascnhtranhgia tng.ThnhcngcaBancoSoldnnscnhtranhtcctchcphichnhph khc, cc t chc ti chnh phi ngn hng, v ngay c cc ngn hng chnh thc vi cc b phn cho vay mi dnh cho khch hng c thu nhp thp. H qu l s gia tng nhanh ngun cung tn dng, v suy yu ng c hon tr n vay, bo trc nhng vn s xy ra trong nhng lnh vc khc (xem phn 3.3). Tuynhin,BancoSolvnngvngnhmtthnhcngvtichnhvmhnh c bt chc mt cch c li ti chn trong s 18 n v lin kt khc chu M Latin caACCIONInternational,mttchcphichnhphSomerville,Massachusetts. ACCIONcngphcvhn1nghnkhchhngHoaK,trirngtrongsuchng trnh. Qui m khon vay bnh qun nm trong khong t 1.366 USD New Mexico n 3.883 USD Chicago, v ni chung gn 40% khch hng l ph n. Tnh n thng 12-1996,bnhquntlthanhtonquhntrongtnht30ngyl15,5%nhnglnn 21,2%NewYorkv32,3%NewMexico.7Tuynhin,ccnvlinktkhcca ACCION gm 6 n v Hoa K khng t c tnh bn vng v mt ti chnh. Nhng tr ngi ln nht i vi cc chng trnh Hoa K dng nh l mt h s hon tr hn tp, v lut cho vay nng li khng cho php cc t chc ti chnh vi m tnh li sut b p ht chi ph (Pham 1996). 2.3Ngn hng Rakyat IndonesiaCng nh BancoSol, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) n v Desa l mt t chc t ch v mt ti chnh v i tng cho vay cng l cc h gia nh ngho kh gi v h khng ngho, vi qui m khon vay bnh qun 1007 USD vo nm 1996. Tuy nhin, khng nh BancoSolvGrameen,BRI khng sdng cchcho vay theonhm. V khng ging nh hu ht cc chng trnh khc, ngn hng i hi cc c nhn vay phi c ti sn th chp, cho nn nhng ngi rt ngho b loi ra khi chng trnh, nhng hot ng cho vay vn trn qui m nh v ti sn th chp thng c xc nh mt cch lng lo, chophpccnhnvintnhiuctutrongvicgiatngquimkhonvaydnh cho nhng khch hng ng tin cy m khng th bo m khon vay hon ton bng ti sn. Thm ch ngay sau cuc khng hongti chnhmi y Indonesia, t l hon tr n vay ca BRI vn l 97,8% vo thng 3-1998 (Paul McGuire 1998). Ngn hng tp trung vo vic gim chi ph thng qua thit lp mt mng li chi nhnh vphnggiaodch(vibnhqunnmnhnvinmini)vhinphcvkhong2 triu ngi vay v 16 triu ngi gi tin. (Tm quan trng ca tin tit kim i vi BRI 7 S liu t ACCION (1997) v tnh n thng 12-1996. Nm trong su n v lin kt ch hot ng t nm 1994, v ton b t chc phc v c 1.695 khch hng (nhng vi ngun vn bo m m rng). C nhiu t chc ti chnh vi m hot ng Hoa K. Nm trong s nhng t chc hot ng k cu v lu i nht l South Shore Bank Chicago v Woking Capital ca Boston. Qu Cal Meadow Foundation mi y cung cp ti chnh cho mt s chng trnh ti chnh vi m Canada. Tham gia ti chnh vi m HoaKchyuldavocccngngdntcthius,vistp trungcaovsctc.Vd,90% khch hng th ca Working Capital thuc cc cng ng thiu s (v 66% l ph n). Gi tr cc khon vay bt u t mc 500 USD. Khch hng c xu hng c trnh hc vn hn v c kinh nghim lm vic hn so vi nhng ngi nhn phc li bnh qun, v ch c 29% ngi vay ca Working Capital nm di mc i ngho. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch11Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du s c trnh by di y trong phn 7). Cc nhn vin tn dng am hiu khch hng dn dn theo thi gian, bt u cho vay vi nhng khon vay nh ri sau tng dn gi tr vay da vo kt qu tr n ca khch hng. Li sut tnh theo hng nm l 34% v 24% nu vic hon tr khng b chm tr (khong 25% v 15% tnh theo li sut thc - trc khi xy ra cuc khng hong ti chnh gn y).Cng nh BancoSol, BRI khng xem mnh nh mt t chc phc v x hi, v ngn hng khng hng dn hay o to khch hng; mc ch ca ngn hng l t c li nhun v xem ti chnh vi m l mt hot ng kinh doanh tt (Marguerite Robinson 1992). Qu tht, nm 1995, chng trnh n v desa ca Ngn hng Rakyat Indonesia t li nhun 175 triu USD t cc khon vay dnh cho cc h gia nh thu nhp thp. n tng hn, tlhontrcachngtrnhvlinhuntnhngkhonvaydnhchocch nghocncaohnktquchovayivikhchhngcngtycaccbphnkhc trong ngn hng. Mt php tnh mi y cho thy nu chng trnh n v desa ca BRI khng phi tr cp cho cho cc b phn cn li ca ngn hng, h c th t ho vn vo nm1995 khitnhli sut danh ngha ch bng17,5%mt nmtrncc khoncho vay (lisutthcvokhong7%;JacobYaron,McDonaldBenjamin,vStephanie Charitonenko 1998). 2.4Kredit Desa, IndonesiaHthngBankKreditDesa(BKD)nngthnIndonesia,mttchccngmtkiu nhBRI,thkmnitinghn.Chngtrnhbtutnm1929,chodphnln ngun vn b qut sch bi tnh trng siu lm pht vo gia thp nin 60 (Don Johnston 1996). Cng nh BRI, cc khon vay c dnh cho i tng c nhn v hot ng cho vaycangnhngngvngvmttichnh.Vocuinm1994,BKDtorali nhun khong 4,73 triu USD trn 30 triu USD cho vay rng 765.586 khch hng.8 Cng ht nh cc chng trnh theo kiu Grameen, i tng cho vay ca BKD l cc h ngho nht vi qui m nh, ch trng vo cc tiu thng v gi tr bnh qun mt khon vay l 71 USD vo nm 1994. Thi hn vay ni chung l 10-12 tun, hon tr hng tun vi li sut 10% trn vn gc. Christen v nhng ngi khc (1995) tnh ton rng iu nytngngvilisutdanhnghahngnml55%vlisutthc46%vonm 1993. T l n xu vo nm 1994 khng n 4% s n ang lu hnh (Johnston 1996). Cng nh trong hu ht cc chng trnh ti chnh vi m, cc khon vay khng yu cu thchp.imicaBKDlphnbngunvnthngquaccbanqunllngdo trnglngngu.CchlmnyctcdngIndonesiavcmththngchnh quyn r rng t Jakarta xung n cc lng x. BKD hot ng da trn c cu ny v ban qun l tp hp nhiu u im ca c ch cho vay theo nhm (quan trng hn c l c ch khai thc thng tin v cng ch thi hnh) trong khi vn gi nguyn cch tip cn cho vay c nhn. Ban qun l c th loi tr nhng ri ro tn dng t hi nht nhng xem ra tng i dn ch trong cch phn b ca h. Cho n cui thp nin 90, phn ln h thngBKD c vn d cho vay v duytr s d trnccti khonca BRI. BKD hincgimstbiBRIvnhngkhchhngthnhcngcaBKDcthdndn c cho vay trn qui m ln hn t cc n v ca BRI. 8 S liu c tnh ton t ti liu ca Johnston (1996) v s liu do BRI cung cp vo thng 8-1996. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch12Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du 2.5Cc ngn hng lng xTuy nhin, vin cnh ti to m hnh BKD bn ngoi t nc Indonesia b hn ch. Mt c cu da vo lng x ha hn hn v c th c bt chc cc nc khc l mng liccngnhnglngxcJohnHatchvcccngskhixngchuM Latinh vo gia thp nin 80 Qu H tr Cng ng Quc t (FINCA). M hnh ngn hng lng x hin c ti to hn 3000 vng trn 25 quc gia bi cc t chc phi chnhphnhCARE,CatholicReliefServices,FreedomfromHunger,vSavethe Children.ChringccchngtrnhcaFINCAphcvgn90.000khchhng ccnchtscadngnhPeru,Haiti,Malawi,Uganda,vKyrgyzstancngnh Maryland, Virginia, v Washington D.C.Cc t chc phi chnh ph gip thnh lp cc t chc ti chnh lng x phi hp vi cc nhm a phng, cho php a phng t ch trong cc quyt nh cho vay v qun l. V d nh t chc Freedom from Hunger thit lp quan h gia cc ngn hng lng x vccngnhngthngmiaphngvimcchxydngnhngccuthch bn vng. Cc ngn hng lng x c xu hng phc v khch hng ngho, ch yu l ph n tng tnhNgnhngGrameen.Theomhnhtiuchun,cquanbotrscungng khon vay ban u dnh cho ngn hng lng x v 30-50 thnh vin ca ngn hng. Sau , ngn hng lng x mang cho cc thnh vin vay, bt u vo khong 50 USD vi thi hn bn thng, v qui m khon vay tip theo gn lin vi s tin m thnh vin k gi vi ngn hng (thng thng h phi tit kim t nht 20% gi tr khon vay). Khon vay ban u t c quan bo tr c k gi trong mt ti khon bn ngoi v thu nhp li sutcsdngbpchiph.Tingicathnhvincgitrongmtti khonnibcthcrtradnkhingigitincn.Mcchbanulxy dng cc ti khon ni b ngun tin bn ngoi c th c rt ra trong thi gian ba nm, nhng trn thc t nhu cu tn dng gia tng v tit kim tch lu thp lm hn ch vic thc hin d nh ban u (Candace Nelson v nhng ngi khc 1995). Cng nh BKD ca Indonesia, cc ngn hng lng x khai thc thnh cng cc thng tin a phng v p lc cng ng m khng cn s dng cc nhm nh nh BancoSol hayGrameen.VnhviBKD,tnhbnvnglmctiucangnhngvilisut danh ngha ln n 4% mt thng. Tuy nhin, hu ht cc ngn hng lng x vn i hi tr cp ng k thu hi chi ph vn. Phn 4.1 trnh by bng chng cho thy rng xt bnhqun tonth cc ngn hng lng xchthuhi c 70% tngchi ph. Mt phn iu ny l do nhiu ngn hng lng x c thnh lp nhng vng m vic phc v htsckhkhn(vdnhvngnngthnMalivBurkinaFaso)vtrngtmca chng trnh l gia tng phm vi tc ng ch khng phi gia tng qui m. Trn ton th gii,skhchhngctnhbnghngchcnghn,chkhngphihngtriungi nh c phc v bi Ngn hng Grameen v BRI. 3.Cc c ch ti chnh vi m Nm chng trnh trn y cho thy tnh a dng ca cc phng php thc hin bt u t tng chung v vic cho cc h gia nh thu nhp thp vay. Cho vay theo nhm c ch nghiu nht, v tng ny xem ra thu ht s quan tm ngay lp tc ca cc nh Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch13Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du lthuytkinhtvccnhhochnhchnhschvitmnhnvvicxydngcc chng trnh xung quanh ti sn x hi ca cc h gia nh, ngay c khi ti sn vt cht tht l t i. Nhng vai tr ca cho vay theo nhm c phng i: cho vay theo nhm khng phi l c ch duy nht lm khc bit cc hp ng ti chnh vi m so vi cc hp ng cho vay tiu chun.9 Cc chng trnh m t trn y cng s dng cc ng c khuyn khch ng, lch tr n thng xuyn, v cc bin php thay th ti sn th chp duy tr t l hon tr cao. Cho vay dnh cho i tng ph n cng c th c li nhn t gc ti chnh. Nhthhinquabng1,chchaitrongnmchngtrnhsdngcchpngcho vay theo nhm mt cch chnh thc, nhng tt c u cho vay vi gi tr khon vay tng dn theo thi gian (cho vay lu tin), a ra cc iu khon tt hn ng k so vi cc ngun tn dng khc, v chm dt vi nhng ngi vay v n. Phn ln ca yu cu tr n hng tun hay hai ln mt tun, bt u chng bao lu sau khi nhn khon vay. Mc d chng ta khng c bng chng r rng v tm quan trng tng i ca cc c ch ny, ngy cng c nhiu bng chng mang tnh giai thoi v hn ch ca bn thn c ch cho vay theo nhm (v d, nghin cu t Bangladesh trong ti liu ca Aminur Rahman 1998; SanacIto1998;vPankajJain1996).Phnnylmrnhnggchngtabit(hay phi bit) v tnh a dng ca cc cng ngh lm c s cho t l hon tr n vay v cc c ch sng lc. 3.1S chn lc ca nhng ngi cng loi Cho vay theo nhm c nhiu u im, bt u t vic gim nh nhng vn kh khn gy ra do chn la bt li. im mu cht l c ch cho vay theo nhm mang li ng c khuyn khch thnh lp nhm ca nhng ngi tng t nh nhau. Ghatak (1999) chng minhrngqutrnhlpnhmnycthgipcithintlhontrnvay,gimli sut,vtngphclixhi.ngchngminhrngmthpngchovaytheonhm gip thc hin vic phn bit gi c m khng th thc hin c vi hp ng cho vay c nhn.10 hiu iu ny, ta hy tng tng hai loi nh u t tim nng. C hai loi u trung tnh vi ri ro. Nhng mt loi th ri ro v loi kia th an ton; nhng nh u t ri ro thng tht bi hn so vi nhng nh u t an ton, nhng h c sut sinh li cao hn khi thnh cng. Ngn hng bit t l ca mi loi trong tng dn s, nhng khng th xc nh cc nh u t thuc loi no. D vy, cc nh u t c thng tin hon ho v tng ngi. Chailoingiumunutvomtdncktqukhngchcchnihi phi u t mt n v vn. Nu h quyt nh khng thc hin d n, h c th hng thu nhp lng m. Cc nh u t ri ro c xc sut thnh cng pr v sinh li rng Rr. Cc nh u t an ton c xc sut thnh cng ps v sinh li rng Rs. Khi d n tht bi, sinh li ca c hai loi ngi u bng 0. Cc mc sinh li c lp v mt thng k. 9GhatakvGuinnance(1999)xemxtmtcchxutsccchpngchovaytheonhm.Monica Huppi v Gershon Feder (1990) trnh by mt bi cnh sm hn. Armendariz v Morduch (1998) m t s vn hnh ca cc c ch khc. 10 Armendariz v Gollier (1997) cng m t c ch ny trong mt nghin cu song song. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch14Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du Loi ngi ri ro t c kh nng thnh cng hn (pr < ps), nhng h c sinh li cao hn khi h thnh cng. n gin, ta gi nh rng sinh li rng k vng u bng nhau i vi c hai loi ngi ri ro v an ton: prRr = psRsR . Cc d n ca c hai loi nh u t uc li vmt xhi ch sinh lik vng tr i chiph vn () s cao hn thu nhp t lng:R - > m. C hai loi nh u t u khng c ti sn th chp, cho nn nh u t s khng tr cho ngn hng g c nu d n tht bi. ho vn, ngn hng phi n nh li sut cho vay cao thu hi chi ph vn trn mt khon vay . Nu c hai loi ngi u i vay, li sut cn bng trong iu kin cnh tranh s c n nh sao cho r p = , trong pl xcsutthnhcngbnhquntrongdns.Vngnhngkhngthphnbitgia nhng ngi vay, tt c cc nh u t u ng trc cng mt mc li sut nh nhau r. V th, nh u t an ton c sinh li k vng thp hn nh u t ri ro (vR - rps m. Nu nh u t an ton tham gia u t, nh u t ri ro cng s tham gia. Nhng nh u t an ton s khng tham gia th trng nuR - rps < m, v c l ch cn nh u t ri ro cn li trn th trng. Trong trng hp , li sut cn bng s tng ln sao cho rpr = . Nhng nh u t ri ro y nhng nh u t an ton ra khi th trng. Loi u t ri ro mt i s tr cp cho ca u t an ton, trong khi u t an tonmtistipcnvn.Tnhhungiutthngnhnylphihiuquvchc nhng nh u t ri ro vay vn, cho d nhng nh u t an ton cng c nhng d n ng gi v mt x hi. Cchchovaytheonhmliuccithincktquny?Nuc,cchphi mangcnhngnhutantontrvothtrng.ngin,tahyxemcc nhm hai ngi, mi nhm c thnh lp mt cch t nguyn. Cc c nhn u t mt cchclp,nhnghpngvay vncsonthotoranghavlini.Hy tng tng mt hp ng sao cho mi ngi vay s khng tr g c nu d n tht bi, v phi tr s tin r* nu d n thnh cng. Ngoi ra, ngi vay thnh cng cn phi tr mt khon tin trch nhim lin i c* nu thnh vin kia trong nhm tht bi.11 Sinh li rng k vng ca mt nh u t an ton kt hp vi mt nh u t ri ro lR - ps (r* + (1 pr ) c*); ta cng c php tnh tng t cho nhm gm ton nhng nh u t ri ro v nhm gm ton nhng nh u t an ton. Cc nhm s gm cng mt loi ngi hay ln ln? V ai cng thch chn cc nh u t an ton vo nhm (v xc sut tht bi ca h thp hn), vn tr nn l: liucc nh u t ri ro s sn lng chuyn giao mt s tin ln cho cc nh u t an ton c hai u cng c kt qu tt hn? Thng qua so snh sinh li k vng trong cc tnh hung khc nhau,chng ta cth tnh ra rng loi ngi an ton s i hi phi cmtkhon 11 Trong cc hp ng tiu biu, cc thnh vin nhm c trch nhim gip nhau tr dt khon n khi gp kh khn, ch khng phi tr mt khon tin pht c nh cho s v n ca mt thnh vin khc. Tuy khch hng thiu ti sn th chp, h c cho l c dng thu nhp ln b p nhng chi ph ny nu cn. Trn thc t, iu ny c th dn n mt rng buc i vi qui m khon vay v cc c nhn c th gp kh khn nhiu hn khi phi tr c* + r* khi qui m khon vay tng ln. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch15Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du chuyn giao t nht bngps (ps pr ) c* ng thnh lp nhm vi mt nh u t ri ro. Liu nh u t ri ro c bnglng tr stin ? Lich rng kvng ca h khi tham gia nhm vi mt nh u t an ton lpr (ps pr ) c*. Nhng v pr < ps cho nn li ch rng k vng ca nh u t ri ro lun lun nh hn so vi chi ph k vng (khon chuyn giao) tr cho nh u t an ton. V th khng c cch no mang li li ch chung hai bn thnh lp nhm vi nhau. Nh vy, vic cho vay theo nhm dn n s thnh lp nhm gm nhng ngi cng loi vi nhau (Gary Becker 1991).12 iu ny nh hng nh th no n s vn hnh ca th trng tn dng? Ghatak (1999) chng minh rng hp ng cho vay theo nhm mang li mt phng thc tnh nhng mcphhiudngkhcnhauchoccloingiantonvrirochodttccc nhm u c cng mt hp ng ht nh nhau vi cng nhng khon ph danh ngha nh nhau,r*vc*.Taccktqunylvnhngnhutriroslpnhmvi nhngnhutrirokhc,trongkhinhngngiantonsktnhmvinhng ngi an ton. Nhm ri ro s nhn c sinh li rng k vng lR - pr (r* + (1 pr ) c*), trong khi nhm an ton nhn c sinh li rng k vng lR - ps (r* + (1 ps ) c*). Nhvy,mtnhutrirothnhcngcxcsutphitrkhontintrchnhim lin i c* cao hn so vi mt nh u t an ton thnh cng. Nu r* v c* c n nh mtcchphhp,hpngchovaytheonhmcthmanglimtphngthchu hiu phn bit gi c m ta khng th lm c trong cc hp ng cho vay c nhn tiuchuntrongbicnhiutthngnh.Lyvd,nups=0,9vpr=0,8,nhng ngi an ton c th k vng phi tr t hn nhng ngi u t ri ro bao lu m khon tin trch nhim lin i c n nh sao cho c* > 1,4 r*. Ta scli ch v hiu qu nu khonchnhlch ln liko nh utan ton quaytrlithtrng.Khiiunyxyra,tlhontrbnhquntnglnvngn hng c th duy tr c li sut thp r* ng thi vn khng mt tin. 3.2S gim st ca nhng ngi cng loi Chovaytheonhmcngcthmanglilichthngquakhuynkhchngivay khngchpnhnnhngrirolmximnkhnngsinhlicangnhng(Stiglitz 1990; Besley v Coate 1995). Ta c th thy c iu ny khi iu chnh i cht khung phn tch trong phn 3.1 xem xt tm l li. Thay vo , chng ta s xem xt nhng ngi vay ght ri ro ht nh nhau vi hm tha dng u(x). Mingivaycthtinhnhnhnghotnghocrirohocanton,vmihot ng u i hi cng mt s vn u t nh nhau. Cng nh trn, ngn hng c thng tin khng hon ho vngi vay ni c thra, y, ngn hng khng th bitc ngi vay s tin hnh nhng hot ng ri ro hay an ton. V th, tm l li l mt mi quanngiln.Khiccdnthtbi,ngivaycsinhlibngkhng,vmctha dng ca ngi vay khi d n tht bi c chun ho cng bng khng. 12Ghatak(1998)mrngktquchonhngnhmgmhnhaithnhvin,mtthlintcnhiuloi ngi v cc thi i vi ri ro. Xem thm ti liu ca Varian (1990) v Armendariz v Gollier (1997) v cc vn tnh hiu qu v phn loi c lin quan. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch16Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du Chng ta bt u bng mt hp ng vay vn c nhn tiu chun. Ngi vay c tha dng k vng hoc bngpsu(Rs r) hoc bngpru(Rr r), tu thuc vo vic ngi thc hin hot ng an ton hay ri ro. Nu mi ngi u tin hnh hot ng an ton, ngn hng c th tnh li sut bng r = /ps v ho vn. Nhng v ngn hng khng th bit nh u t s chn hot ng no (v v vy cng khng th qui nh trn hp ng viu),ngivaycththchinhotngrirovtthadngkvng E[Usr] = pru(Rr /ps). Khi ngn hng c th b mt tin. V vy, ngn hng tng li sutlnnmcr=/pr.Bygingivaytthadngkvngl E[Urr]= pru(Rr/pr ,vngivayrrngtrnnsasthnsovikhicvayvilisut thp hn. Tht ra, nu ngi vay c th cam kt s thc hin d n an ton, ngi vay c th tr nnkhmkh hn vi tha dnglE[Uss] = psu(Rs /ps). Nh vy,ngi vay s a thch tho dng E[Usr] nhiu hn so vi E[Uss] v nhiu hn so viE[Urr], nhngvnthngtinvtnhtrngkhngthcamktkhinchongivaylunlun nhn c kt qu thp nht l E[Urr]. Lmthnohpngchovaytheonhmcthgipcithincvnny?Mu cht l n c th to ra mt c ch trao cho ngi vay ng c khuyn khch h chn hot ng an ton. Mt ln na, ta hy xem xt cc nhm c hai ngi vay v cc hpng cho vay theo nhm nh trong phn 3.1 trn y. Ngi vay trong tng nhm c kh nng cng ch hp ng ln nhau, v h cng quyt nh vi nhau v loi hot ng no h s thc hin. By gi vn ca h l quyt nh gia vic c hai ngi cng thc hin d n an ton mang li cho mi ngi mt tho dng k vng l 2sp u(Rs r*) + ps (1 ps)u (Rs r* c*) hoc thc hin d n ri ro vi tha dng 2rp u(Rr r*) + pr (1 pr)u (Rr r* c*). Nu khon tin lin i trch nhim c n nh cao, ngi vay s lun lun chn thc hin d n an ton (Stiglitz 1990). iu ny tt cho ngn hng, nhng n cn tr nhng ngi vay mun chp nhn thm ri ro. D vy, ngn hng bit by gi ngivays thc hind n anton, v ngnhng hng thu nhp ph tri t khon tin lin i trch nhim. V th ngn hng c th h li sut b tr cho gnh nng . V th, thng qua khai thc kh nng nhng ngi hng xm vi nhau c th cng ch thi hnh hp ng v gim st ln nhau ngay c khi ngn hng khng th lm c iu nyhpngchovaytheonhmmtlnnamangliphngthcgimlisut cn bng, tng tha dng k vng, v tng t l hon tr k vng. 3.3Cc ng c khuyn khch ng (dynamic incentives) C ch th ba bo m t l hon tr cao vi chi ph gim st cao lin quan n vic khaithcccngckhuynkhchng(Besley1995,trang2187).Ccchngtrnh thng bt u thng qua cho vay mt s tin nh ri tng dn qui m khon vay da trn vic hon tr ng hn. Bn cht lp i lp li ca s tng tc v mi e da b chm dt cho vay trong tng lai nu khon vay khng c hon tr c th c khai thc khc phc vn thng tin v ci thin hiu qu, bt k vic cho vay l theo nhm hay cho tng c nhn.13 13TmcthmvcchgiithchlthuytchungtrongtiliucaBoltonvScharfstein(1990)vp dng cho cc hp ng ti chnh vi m trong ti liu ca Armendariz v Morduch (1998). Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch17Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du Cc ng c khuyn khch c tng cng nu ngi vay c th d on mt dng tin vayngycnglnhn.(HulmevMosley1996giiunylchovaylutin (progressive lending), v mng li ACCION gi l cho vay tng bc (step lending).) Nh trn, gi mc li sut tng i thp l quan trng, v u im ca cc chng trnh ti chnh vi m nm vic cung ng dch v vi li sut hp dn hn li sut ca i th cnh tranh. V th, Ngn hng Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) v BancoSol tuy tnh li sut cao nhng vn gi mc thp hn so vi nhng ngi cho vay tin truyn thng. Tuy nhin, cnh tranh s lm gim sc mnh ca cc ng c khuyn khch ng chng li tm l li, mt vn m c Ngn hng Rakyat Indonesia v BancoSol u bt u cmnhnkhiccngnhngthngmikhcnhnthykhnngsinhlitimtngt m hnh ca h. D vy, trn thc t, hu ht cc t chc ti chnh vi m vn cha cm thy s cnh tranh thc s (c l v c qu t t chc thc s c li). Khi cnh tranh gia tng, nhu cu cn c mt c quan xp hng tn dng tp trung cng s gia tng.Ccngckhuynkhchngcngsctcdngtthnnhngvngctnhdi ng tng i thp. V d, cc vng thnh th, ni cc h gia nh n ri i, xem ra chng dm bt c nhng ngi v n ln trn gia cc vng dn c, gi sch trch nhimvbtuvaymnlitimtchinhnhhaymtchngtrnhkhc.BRIgp kh khn trong vic duy tr vic thanh ton n vay trong cc chng trnh thnh th nhiu hn so vi nng thn, c th do tnh i ng cao ca i tng vay. Da vo cc ng c khuyn khch ng cng dn n nhng vn trc trc chung i vicctrchilplichn.Numiquanhchovaycmtthiimktthcr rng,ngivaycngcthithchkhngtrnvokhncuicng.Bittrc rng ngi cho vay s khng cho vay vo k cui, ngi vay s c ng c thi thc h khng tr n vo k p cui, v tng t nh th cho n khi ton b c ch sp . Nh vy, tr khi c tnh trng khng chc chn v ngy kt thc, hoc vic chuyn tip t mt chngtrnhchovaynysangmtchngtrnhchovaykhcchochnhcth (v tn), th cc ng c khuyn khch ng cng ch c tc dng hn ch m thi. Mt u im hon ton khc ca vic cho vay lu tin l kh nng kim chng ngi vay bng nhng khon vay nh lc bt u. c im ny cho php ngi cho vay xy dng quan h vi khch hng theo thi gian v sng lc nhng vin cnh t hi nht trc khi gia tng qui m khon vay (Parikshit Ghost v Debraj Ray 1997). Cc ng c khuyn khch ng cng c th gip gii thch nhng u im trong vic cho ph n vay. Nhng chng trnh tn dng nh ca Ngn hng Grameen v U ban Tin b Nng thn Bangladesh (BRAC) khng ch trng vo khch hng ph n ngay t u. Nm1980-83,phnlnlttonn39%v34%thnhvincah,nhngnnm 1991-92, thnh vin ca BRAC c n 74% l ph n, v thnh vin ph n ca Grameen ln n 94% (Anne Marie Goetz v Rina Sen Gupta 1995). Nh bng 2 cho thy, nhiu chngtrnhkhccngttrngtmvoitngvaylphn,vxemraiu mang li u im v ti chnh cho cc chng trnh. Grameen chng hn, 15,3% ngi vay l nam gii gp kh khn vo nm 1991 (ngha l b mt vi k thanh ton trc k sau cng) trong khi iu ny ch xy ra vi 1,3% khch hng ph n (Khandker, Baqui Khalily, v Zahed Kahn 1995). Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch18Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du Bng 2.Cc ch bo v kt qu hot ng ca cc chng trnh ti chnh vi m S quan st Gi tr khon vay bnh qun (USD) Khon vay bnh qun tnh theo % GNP trn u ngi bn vng v hot ng bnh qun bn vng v ti chnh bnh qun bn vng Tt c cc t chc ti chnh vi m724153410583 Nhng t chc hon ton bn vng3442839139113 Phng php cho vay Cho vay c nhn308427612092 Cho vay nhm 204513510389 Ngn hng lng x2294119169 Nhm mc tiu Cp thp37133138872 Ph cp2856448122100 Cp cao7297135912176 Thi gian tham gia ca khch hng 3 n 6 nm15301449884 7 nm hay lu hn403742712398 Bng 2.Cc ch bo v kt qu hot ng ca cc chng trnh ti chnh vi m (tt) Sinh li trn vn s hu bnh qunPhn trm danh mc ri ro bnh qunPhn trm khch hng ph n bnh qun S ngi vay hot ng bnh qun bn vng Tt c cc t chc ti chnh vi m-8,53,3659.035 Nhng t chc hon ton bn vng9,32,66112.926 Phng php cho vay Cho vay c nhn-5,03,15315.226 Cho vay nhm -3,04,1497.252 Ngn hng lng x-17,42,8927.833 Nhm mc tiu Cp thp-16,23,8747.953 Ph cp1,23,06012.282 Cp cao-6,21,9341.891 Thi gian tham gia ca khch hng 3 n 6 nm-6,82,2719.921 7 nm hay lu hn-2,44,16316.557 Ngun: Ph lc thng k ca MicroBanking Bulletin (1998), Cc ngn hng lng x c cht lng s liu B; tt c cc t chc khc c cht lng A. Danh mc ri ro l gi tr n kht li trong 90 ngy hay lu hn tnh theo phn trm ca danh mc cho vay. Cc gi tr bnh qun khng tnh s liu cho nhm u v nhm cui. Quyt nh tp trung vo ph n c nhng u im r rng. Tnh di ng km ca ph n c th l mt u im nhng ni m tm l li sau khi s vic xy ra l mt vn (ngha l nhng ni ngi cho vay lo s rng khch hng s m tin b trn). ng Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch19Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du thi,nhngnimphntcchivaymnnokhchnsovinamgii,cc ng c khuyn khch ng c th c tc dng nhiu hn.14 V th, tht tr tru, thnh cng ti chnh ca nhiu chng trnh tp trung vo ph n c thbtngunmtphnttnhtrngthiutipcnkinhtcaphn,trongkhing thi, vic thc y tip cn kinh t l mt mc tiu x hi c bn (Syed Hashemi, Sidney Ruth Schuler, v Ann P. Riley 1996). 3.4Lch trnh tr n thng xuyn Mttrongnhngcimtcchnhtnhngkhcthngnhtcahuhtcc hp ng tn dng ti chnh vi m l vic hon tr phi bt u gn nh ngay sau khi gii ngn.Trongmthpngchovaytruynthng,ngivaynhnctin,ut,ri hontryvilisutvocuikhn.Nhngnhngngnhngtheokiu Garmeen, cc k tr tin cho mt khon vay thi hn mt nm c th c xc nh bng cch cng vn gc v ton b li, chia cho 50, v bt u k thu tin hng tun mt vi tun sau khi gii ngn. Nhng chng trnh nh BancoSol v BRI c xu hng linh hot hn v cng thc, nhng cng khng i xa lm so vi tng thu tin thng xuyn theo tng khon nh.Cmtviuim.Lchtrnhtrnthngxuyngipsnglcnhngngivayk lut km. N cnh bo sm cho nhn vin tn dng v cc thnh vin nhm bit v nhng vn trc trc ang xut hin. V n cho php ngn hng gi li dng tin trc khi b tiudnghaychuynsangnhngcchsdngkhc;nhnnhnycStuart Rutherford (1998) trin khai. R rt hn, v qu trnh tr n bt u trc khi vic u t gt hi li nhun, vic tr n hng tun buc cc h gia nh phi c mt ngun thu nhp b sung da vo m tr n. V th, vic nht quyt yu cu tr n hng tun c ngha l ngn hng thc cht cho vaymtphndavodngthunhpadng,uncahgianhchkhngphi ch da vo d n ri ro. iu ny mangli li th cho ngn hng v cho nhng h gia nhadnghotng.Nhngncngcnghaltichnhvimchathtsxm nhpvonhngvngtptrungmnhvonhngnghnghipctnhmavcaonh canhtcnngnghip.Nhvy,tnhmavtramttrongnhngththchlnnht cho vic m rng hot ng ti chnh vi m trong nhng vng tp trung vo nng nghip sng vo ma ma, nhng vng ngho nht ca Nam v chu Phi. 3.5Thay th ti sn th chp Tuytcchngtrnhnoihitisnthchp,nhiuchngtrnhcnhnghnh thcthaythtisnthchp.Vd,ccchngtrnhtheomhnhGrameenyucu ngi vay phi ng gp vo mt qu cp cu s tin bng 0,5% mi n v vay mn 14 Rahman (1998) m t cc p lc vn ho b tr da vo hnh vi kiu mu vn ho ca ph n. V d, nhng ngi vay l ph n ca Ngn hng Grameen ni ng nghin cu c nhn thy l nhy cm hn trc nhng li ch trch phn i ca cc thnh vin nhm v nhn vin ngn hng hn khi kh khn v thanh ton pht sinh. Cm gic s nhc i vi h tr nn ti t hn bi vic thu tin thanh ton chung ti cc cuc hp nhm hng tun. Theo Rahman (1998), ph n c bit nhy cm v bt hnh ca h phn nh mt cch ng thng cho ton gia nh, trong khi n ng d dng r b iu hn. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch20Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du (vt qu mt qui m cho trc). Qu cp cu mang li s bo him trong nhng trng hpvn,tvong,thngttv.vvinhngkhontintlvithigianthamgia ca thnh vin. Mt khon khc bng 5% gi tr vay cng c trch ra lm thu nhm avomttikhonqucanhm.Ccthnhvinnhmcthsdngchon mtnagitrqu(vistnthnhchung).Thngthng,qucgiingntrong nhm nh mt khon cho vay khng tnh li vi thi hn c nh, Trc thng 10-1995, ccthnhvincaNgnhngGrameenkhngthrttinqunytngnhng,thm ch khi chm dt t cch thnh vin. Tin tit kim bt buc ny hin nay c th c rt ra khi chm dt t cch thnh vin, nhng ch sau khi ngn hngkhu tr ht nhng g h cn n. V th, thc cht cc qu ny ng vai tr nh mt hnh thc th chp mt phn. ChngtrnhnvDesacaNgnhngRakyatIndonesialmttrongstchng trnh cng khai yu cu th chp. Tuy nhin, nhng ngi ch trng th chp nhn mnh vai tr ca cc ng c khuyn khch ng thi thc hon tr n vay (Richard Patten v JayRosengard1991;Robinson1992).Dvy,ngitakhngthddngxcnhc ch khuyn khch no quan trng nht dn n gia tng t l hon tr. Mc d cc nhn vin ngn hng cho rng h gn nh khng bao gi tch thu ti sn th chp, nhng iu ny khng c ngha l ti sn th chp l km quan trng nh mt cng c khuyn khch tr n. Nu mi e da b tch thu ti sn th chp l ng tin cy, chc hn l vic tht s b tch thu ti sn th chp s t khi xy ra. BancoSol cng nhn mnh vo vai tr ca cc nhm on kt trong vic bo m hon tr n, nhngv khch hng lmn pht t theonhng t l khc nhau,nn phng php cho vay cng a dng. Nh lu trong phn 2.2, vo cui nm 1998, 28% danh mc cho vay ca ngn hng c mt kiu bo m no ngoi vic lp nhm on kt. 3.6Chng trnh nghin cu thc nghimLiu cch trn y c tc dng nh ngitaqung b? C bngchng g v vic kt hpnhngngicngloithngquachovaytheonhmnhGhatak(1999)mc nhin cng nhn? K hn vay tng lai c d on bng kt qu hot ng tr, nh th hin qua l thuyt ng c khuyn khch ng? M rng l thuyt hn, liu vic cho vay theonhmclmtngxcsutvncacnhmkhimtsthnhvinrivotnh trng kh khn nh d on ca Besley v Coate (1995)? Vic cho vay theo nhm c dn n s gim st thi qu v p lc thi qu buc ngi ta phi thc hin nhng d n an tonhnsovinhngdnclihnvrirohn(Banerjee,Besley,vGuinnane 1992)? C cu cho vay theo nhm c km linh hot hn cho vay c nhn i vi nhng ngi vay trong cc doanh nghip ang tng trng v nhng ngi tin nhanh hn nhp bccanhngngicngloivih(Madajewicz1997;Woolcock1998)?Liucc cuchphngtunctnkmqu(ivicngivayvnhnvinngnhng) nhng vng c mt dn s thp v ma v nng nghip bn rn? Cc chng trnh x hi c thc y c thnh qu kinh t? Khi v n xy ra, liu nhn vin ngn hng c theo ng ni dung qui nh v ct t vi nhng khch hng tt chng may nm chung nhmvinhngngihngxmbthnh?Hayvictithnglnglphbin (Hashemi v Sidney Schuler 1997; Matin 1997; Armendariz v Morduch 1998)? Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch21Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du Phn ln cc xut l thuyt c h tr bng nhng giai thoi t cc chng trnh c th,nhngkhngcxydngnhnhngbngchngthcnghim.Cncnhng nghin cu tt hn lm r nt hn c cu l thuyt ti chnh vi m ang pht trin v cc cuc hi m v chnh sch ang din ra.Vic tm hiu thc nghimv ti chnh vim cng s c h tr bng cc nghin cu nhlngvaitrcacccchkhcnhautrongvicymnhktquhotngti chnh vi m. Kh khn ca nhng yu cu ny l hu ht cc chng trnh ti chnh vi m u s dng cng mt m hnh cho vay ti mi chi nhnh. V th, khng c s bin thin t ta c lng hiu qu ca cc c ch c th. Cn c cc cuc th nghim c thit k tt (v d nh cc hp ng cho vay c nhn cho mt phn mu nghin cu; cc hp ng cho vay theo nhm dnh cho nhng ngi khc; lch tr n hng tun cho mt s, tr n hng thng hay hng qu cho mt s khc). Khng c cc th nghim c thit k tt, thay vo ta thu thp cc nghin cu trnh by cc php hi qui trong t l tr n c gii thch theo cc bin i din cho cc p lc ng sau cc c ch c th. Nh vy, s khc nhau s pht sinh t nhng c im camitrngkinhtnhhngnhiuqucacccimchngtrnhcth: Cc dng thng tin tt nh th no? Cc th trng tn dng ra sao? Cc c ch cng ch thi hnh phi chnh thc mnh n mc no? S khc nhau trong cu tr li cho nhng cu hi ny cho php ta c lng kinh t lng, nhng bng chng ch c tnh gin tip v ph thuc vo nhiu cch l gii v sc mnh ca cc dng thng tin, th trng, v cc c ch cng ch thi hnh khng chc c tc dng ch thng qua hnh thc hp ng tn dng.Ngoira,sthinlchchnlanhtrnhbytrongphn6.1cthxyra.Tuy nhin, mt s kt qu vn mang tnh kch thch s tm hiu. Vd,Wydick(1999)boconghincucamtnvlinktcaACCION International minty Guatemalaciu chnh tmhiuthngtin v cc nhm. ng nhn thy rng vic ci thin t l hon tr n vay gn lin vi cc bin s i din chokhnnggimstvcngchccmiquanhnhm,nhhiubitvdoanhs hng tun ca cc thnh vin trong nhm. D vy, ng nhn thy gn nh khng c nh hng g ca bn thn cc mi quan h x hi: bn b vi nhau khng to nn cc thnh vin nhm ng tin cy hn so vi nhng ngi khc. Tht ra, cc thnh vin i khi c x nh nhng hn vi bn b, lm cho t l tr n bnh qun tr nn t hn. Mark Wenner(1995) kho st t lhontrti25 ngn hng lng xCosta Ricalin kt vi FINCA. ng nhn thy vic sng lc tch cc gip loi b c nhng ri ro tn dngthinht,ctcdngtheocchthcnginhntrongmhnhnginv chn la ca nhng ngi cng loi trong phn 3.1 trn y. ng cng nhn thy rng t l khng tr n ng hn cao hn nhng khu ph khm kh hn. iu ny xc nhn l thuyt ng c khuyn khch ng: ni no ngi vay c nhng phng n tt hn, h c th nh gi chng trnh thp hn, v iu ny y t l v n ln cao. Kt qu c lp li trong nghin cu ca Manohar Sharma v Manfred Zeller (1996) v bachngtrnhBangladesh(nhngkhngphiGrameen).Hnhnthyrngtl hon tr cao hn nhng cng ng xa xi ngha l nhng ngi vay t c cc chng trnh tn dng thay th khc. Tuy nhin, Khandker v nhng ngi khc (1995, bng 7.2) nhnthyiungclikhixemxtccngnhngBangladeshkhc(baogm Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch22Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du Grameen). C t l b d chng trnh v t l hon tr u tng ln nhng ngi lng pht trin tt hn. iu ny c th l do tnh thanh khon tng v cc c hi kinh doanh tt hn nhng lng khm kh hn, nhng n cng c th phn nh s thin lch chn la. Nhngmubngchngnychothyrngchovaytheonhmlmtsnghipnhiu bin i v c nhiu c ch hot ng ti chnh vi m khc ngoi cho vay theo nhm. Thu hp khong cch gia l thuyt v bng chng s l mt bc i quan trng hng ti ci thin v nh gi cc chng trnh ny. 4.Kh nng sinh li v tnh bn vng v ti chnhTht l ngc nhin, cc cuc tho lun v ti chnh vi m dng nh khng ch nhiu n nhng c ch c th, trong khi ngi ta li ch nhiu n cc vn ti chnh thun tu. V th, phn ny s xem xt v ti chnh v cc vn x hi s c xem li trong phn 5. Suy cho cng th cc chng trnh ti chnh vi m p ng c cc tin ti chnh nmcno?Mtnghincumiychothyc34chngtrnhclitrongmt nhm72chngtrnhcamktbnvngvmttichnh(MicroBankingBulletin 1998).Tuynhin,iunykhnghmrngmtnatrongtonbccchngtrnh trnton th gii ltch vmttichnh. Hng trmchngtrnh nm bn ngoi72 chng trnh c s ny tip tc l thuc vo s ho phng ca cc nh ti tr (v d nh Ngn hng Grameen v hu ht cc chng trnh m phng khc nm trong danh sch 72 chng trnh, cho d BancoSol v BRI cng nm trong danh sch ). Mt s chuyn gia clngrngckhnghn1%ccchngtrnhcacctchcphichnhphtrn toncuhincthngvngvmttichnhvcl5%khcsvtquac hng ro bn vng v mt hot ng.15 95% ccchngtrnhang hot ng hoc skhpli hoc sihiphi tiptctr cp, do chi ph cao hoc do h quyt nh khng ch li sut cho vay thay v chuyn chi phsangchokhchhng.Chodvnkhngththiutrcp,ccnhtitrvnhng ngi thc thi chng trnh min cng tho lun v tr cp ti u xo ngho, c l do e ngi khuynh hng tr li tnh trng nh c trong bi cnh cc th nghim thm hi vi cc chng trnh c tr cp do chnh ph iu hnh. Thay v th, h a ra nhng l l hng hn ku gi bn vng v mt ti chnh. 4.1Bng chng quc tBng 2 trnh by cc ch bo ti chnh ca 72 chng trnh ti chnh vi m trong iu tra ca Microbanking Bulletin.16 72 chng trnh c phn chia thnh cc chng loi khng loitrlnnhauvthigianthamgiacakhchhngvichngtrnh,phngphp 15 Cc s liu da vo mt cuc thm d d lun phi chnh thc do Richard Rossenberg thc hin trong mt hi ngh ti chnh vi m (trao i c nhn, thng 11-1998). 16 D n bt u trong s hp tc vi Vin Kinh t ca Hip hi Kinh t Hoa K Boulder, Colorado. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch23Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du cho vay, nhm mc tiu, v bn vng.17 (C s trng lp ng k, v d nh gia loi ngn hng lng x v nhm mc tiu ngi vay cp thp.) Cc nhm c chia ra theo phng php cho vay v nhm mc tiu, th hin s a dng ca nhng chng trnh ang diu hnh di ngn c ti chnh vi m. Gi tr khon vay bnh qun nm trong khong t 94 USD n 842 USD khi so snh cc ngn hng lng x vi nhng chng trnh chuyn cho vay c nhn. Mc ch trng vo ph n thay i t 92% n 53%. Phn loi theo nhm mc tiu lm cho vic so snh tr nn ni bt hn, vi gi tr khon vay bnh qun thay i t 133 USD n 2971 USD. Tuy nhin, cc gi tr bnh qun ca 34 t chc hon ton bn vng th khng khc bit ng k so vi mu chung v gi tr khon vay bnh qun hay phn trm khch hng ph n.bnvngnicchungcxemxttheohaimc.Thnhtlbnvngv hot ng. bn vng hot ng ni n kh nng cc t chc to ra doanh thu b p chi ph hot ng, nhng khng nht thit b p ton b chi ph vn. Nu khng th lm c iu ny, s vn nm gi s cn kit dn theo thi gian. Mc th hai l bn vng v ti chnh. bn vng v ti chnh c nh ngha theo vic liu t chc c i hi tr cp cc yu t u vo hot ng hay khng. Nu t chc khng bn vng v ti chnh, t chc s khng th tn ti c nu phi thu ton b cc yu t u vo (c bit l vn) theo li sut th trng, ch khng phi li sut u i. Phnlnccchngtrnhtrongnghincuvtquachngrobnvnghot ng. Ngoi l duy nht l cc ngn hng lng x v nhng ngn hng c nhm mc tiu cp thp, c hai u to ra khong 90% thu nhp yu cu.18

Tuy nhin, s doanh nghip c th thu hi y chi ph vn cng t hn. Ni chung, cc chng trnh to ra 83% thu nhp yu cu v ngn hng lng x/ cc nhm mc tiu thp torakhong70%.ngchl,mtvichngtrnhtptrungvocckhchhng cp cao cng c tr cp mnh nh nhng chng trnh tp trung vo khch hng cp thp.Tngt,thnhqutichnhcanhngchngtrnhchovaycnhnikhi cng tng ng vi kt qu ti chnh ca cc chng trnh s dng nhm on kt, cho d cho hot ng vay c nhn phc v nhng khch hng giu c gp i. Nhng tin b ti chnh vt bc t c bi nhng chng trnh hot ng trn din rng nh BancoSol v BRI, phc v khch hng loi.Tin b ti chnh cng ci thin 17 Nhng chng trnh vi nhm mc tiu cp thp c gi tr khon vay bnh qun di 150 USD hay cc khonvaytnhtheophntrmGNPtrnungildi20phntrm(vdnhccchngtrnh FINCA). Nhng chng trnh c nhm mc tiu rng hn c gi tr vay bnh qun t 20-85% GNP trn u ngi(vbaogmBancoSolvhthngnvdesacaBRI).Ccchngtrnhcpcaochovayhn 120%GNPtrnungi.Phngphpnhmonktdavonhngnhmc3-5ngi(nh BancoSol). Cc ngn hng lng x c cc nhm gm hn 5 ngi vay. 18Tmcti liuca MarkSchreiner(1997)vKhandker(1998)tholunvccquanimbnvng khc. Khng ging nh cc s liu bo co khc, cc s liu ny c iu chnh tnh n tr cp trn chi ph vn, s xi mn gi tr vn s hu do lm pht, v vic d phng y nhng khon vay khng ththuhi.Trongchngmckhd,ccsliunycthsosnhvisliucaccdoanhnghip thng mi tiu chun. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch24Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du theothigian thamgiaca khchhng (cho d cc nhmmithamgia v thamgia lu ch c tnh gi v nh hng ca h c xu hng khc nhau).19

Sinh li trn vn s hu th hin s liu v bn vng ti chnh. Cc con s th hin li nhuntngitrnvnshuavochngtrnh.Bng2chothyrngy khng phi l mt hot ng lm ra nhiu tin. Mc d sinh li bnh qun trn vn s hu 9,3% cho nhng chng trnh bn vng v mt ti chnh l c th ng tn trng, con s khng cnh tranh tt lm vi nhng phng n u t khc v thng chu ri ro ng k. Tuy vy, sinh li x hi c th cao hn nhiu ngay c khi sinh li ti chnh cn khim tn (hoc c gi tr m). Bnh qun, cc chng trnh trn din rng thu hi ton b chi ph v phc v mt tp hp ng o khch hng vi thu nhp khim tn v phn ln l ph n. Ph Wall chc chn khng quan tm v phng din c hi u t, nhng nhng nh u t c t tng x hi c th nhn thy s nh i ny l ng a chung hn. Tuy nhin, nu sinh li trn vn s hu c th gia tng thng qua n by vn s hu hu hiu hn, ph Wall c l cui cng s sn lng xem xt n c hi u t ny. Gia tng n by l hot ng nng cao i vi nhng ngi xng ti chnh vi m c t tng ti chnh, v cc tho lun ti chnh vi m v ti ny tin xa hn nhiu so vi tiu im ban u l lm th no cho mt ngi bn hng rong Bolivia vay 100 USD. Nu cc nh ti trmt mi vi vic thanh ton cc ho n cho hot ng ti chnh vi m, vic t c s bn vng ti chnh v gia tng sinh li vn s hu l tr chiduy nht tham gia. Vn l: liu cc nh ti tr c mt mi khng nu sinh li x hi xem rabinminhcchochiph?Victrlicuhinystcngmnhnchng trnh nghin cu v phn tch chi ph-li ch. N cng i hi phi ch k hn n c s ca nhng nhn nh t a ra v kt qu hot ng ti chnh. 4.2 V d v Ngn hng Grameen S liu trny ciu chnh phhpvi ccthng l thc hnh ktontiu chun.iunykhngbnhthng:ccsliuthngktichnhvimthngc tnhton theo nhng cchthccth, v d b tn hi bivic l gii sai. Ngn hng Grameen tng i ci m vi s liu ca h v cung cp ton b cc ti khon trong cc bocotichnhthngnin.Bng3trnhbybngchngvktquhotngca NgnhngGrameentnm1985n1996.20Bngnychothysgiatngnhanh chng ca Grameen v qui m, vi gi tr danh mc cho vay bnh qun hng nm tng t 10 triu USD nm 1985 n 271 triu USD nm 1996. S lng thnh vin tng ln gp 12 ln trong cng k, t n 2,06 triu thnh vin nm 1996. 19 Khng mt chng trnh no Hoa K m ti bit l c li, v mt s thm ch cn lu mi t c tnh bn vng ti chnh, b khng ch bi qui nh v li sut cho vay (Michael Chu 1996). Khng mt chng trnh no Hoa K c bao gm trong iu tra ca MicroBanking Bulletin. 20 S liu c s c rt ra t cc bo co thng nin ca Ngn hng Grameen. Phn ny da vo nghin cu ca Morduch (1999). Cc tm tt v kt qu hot ng ti chnh ca Grameen nm 1994 c th c tm thy trong nghin cu ca Hashemi v Schuler (1997), Khandker, Khailily, v Kahn (1995). Schreiner trnhby cc php tnh khc v s ph thuc vo tr cp vi phn minh ho da vo Grameen. Vic iu chnh y th hin nhng vn quan trng nht, nhng khng bao trm ton din, v d, s liu khng c iu chnh tnh n s xi mn vn s hu do lm pht gy ra. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch25Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du Bng 3. Ngn hng Grameen: Cc ch bo ti chnh chn lc (n v tnh: triu USD nm 1996) 198519901992`1994`1996Bnh qun 1985-1996Qui m Gi tr cc khon vay ang lu hnh bnh qun hng nm10,058,383,8211,5271,3108 S thnh vin (nghn)1728701,4242,0132,0601,101 T l n qu hn (%) T l n qu hn bo co2,83,32,50,813,91,6A T l n qu hn iu chnh3,86,21,915,0--7,8A Li nhun Li nhun bo co0,020,09-0,150,560,461,5B Li nhun iu chnh-0,33-1,51-3,06-0,93-2,28-17,8B Tr cp Vin tr trc tip 0,02,31,72,02,116,4B Gi tr tip cn cc khon vay mm 1,17,05,89,012,780,5B Gi tr tip cn vn s hu0,00,42,78,08,847,3B Tr cp trn 100 n v ang lu hnh 1121167911 Li sut (%) Li sut cho vay danh ngha bnh qun 16,811,115,816,715,915,9 Li sut cho vay thc bnh qun5,93,011,613,110,110,1 Chi ph vn chun so snh 15,015,013,59,410,311,3 Chi ph vn danh ngha bnh qun 7,92,22,15,53,43,7 Ch s ph thuc tr cp80263106456574 Li sut ho vn danh ngha bnh qun 30,240,232624,226,225,7 Ngun: Morduch (1999) da trn s liu t cc nm khc nhau trong Bo co thng nin ca ngn hng Grameen. Ch thch: A: Bnh qun 1985-94, ly trng s theo qui m danh mc. B: Tng s trong giai on 1985-96. Ngn hng bo co t l hon tr n vay trn 98% v li nhun u, v iu ny c tngthutrngri(vdnhtrnNewYorkTimes1997).Tuynhin,ttcccnh nghaktonukhngngtiuchun.Tlnquhnbocotheotnhtonca Garmeenlgitrnquhntrnmtnmchiachodanhmchinhnh.Vnl ch danh mc hin hnh c xu hng ln hn danh mc vo thi im u tin cho vay nhngkhonnquhnny.Vidanhmcchovaytnggp27lntnm1985n nm1996,tlvnbocothphnngksovitnhtontiuchunvncn kht li (m thay vo , phi th hin ngay lp tc t trng danh mc ri ro). iu chnh, ta phi thay th mu s bng gi tr danh mc vo thi im cho vay. iu chnh nh vy s to ra s khc bit ln: ni chung, t l n qu hn t nm 1985 n 1996 s l 7,8% ch khng phi 1,6% nh bo co. T l ny tuy vn tht n tng so vi kt qu hot ng ca cc ngn hng pht trin ca chnh ph, nhng vn cao bt u to ra nhng kh khn v ti chnh. Ngon mc hn, ngn hng bo co t l n qu hn 0,8% vo nm 1994. trong khi cng lc ti c lng rng 15% cc khon vay ngn hng cho vay trong nm khng thu hi c. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch26Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du Tng t, li nhun bo co khc bit ng k so vi li nhun iu chnh trong bng 3. iuchnhchyulnhmdphngythualchovay.Chongny,ngn hng rt chm chp trong vic xo (write off) cc khon n khng i c v t l iu chnhbomrngtrongminmngnhngphixomtkhonkhong3,5%trong danh mc (vn cn t hn ng k so vi 7,8% n qu hn bnh qun). Kt qu l thua l gn18triuUSDtnm1985n1996,chkhngphilinhun1,5triuUSDnh bo co ca ngn hng. Vin tr t cc nh ti tr l mt phn ng k ca thu nhp khi tnh ton li nhun. Nu ngn hng ch da vo thu nhp t cho vay v u t, th thay vo , ngn hng s l 34 triu USD t nm 1985 n 1996. Tuy nhin, phn ln tr cp ngn hng nhn c l thng qua cc khon vay mm. Bnh qun Grameen tr li 3,7% trn vn vay (tnh theo li sut thc l -1,7%). Nu ngn hng khng c tip cn vi li sut u i, ngn hng s phi tr li cao hn nhiu. y, s o chi ph vn s hu chun so snh th hin li sut tin gi Bangladesh theo Thng k Ti chnh Quc t ca IMF (1996) cng vi 3% iu chnh chi ph giao dch. Mc chnh lch li sut cho thy tng gi tr tip cn cc khon vay mm l 80,5 triu USD t nm 1985n1996.Licncmtkhontrcpngmnbsung47,3triukhcm Grameen nhn c thng qua tip cn vn s hu, c s dng to ra sinh li di mc chi ph c hi. Cho d cc khon tr cp gia tng theo thi gian v s lng tuyt i, nhng qui m ca ngn hng li cn tng trng nhanh hn. V th, tr cp hng nm trn mt USD gi tr ang lu hnh gim xung ng k, vo khong 10 cents trn mt USD. Ch s ph thuc vo tr cp th hin tm tt s liu tr cp thng qua mang li mt gi tr c lng phn trm gia tng li sut cn thit ngn hng hot ng m khng c bt k loi tr cp no (Yaron 1992). Kt qu cho giai on 1985-96 cho thy rng trong nhngnmuthpnin90,Grameensphitnglisutdanhnghatrncckhon vayt20%ntrn50%.Nhnchung,lisuthovnbnhqunl32%(lisutcho vaybnhqundi20%vkhongmtphnbadanhmcbaogmchovayphttrin nhclisut8%mtnm).Trongkhinhngngivayskhngvuivigithit tng li sut, ngi ta khng bit chc liu h c tip tc tr n c na khng. V d, khch hng ca U ban Tin b Nng thn Bangladesh, mt i th cnh tranh ca Ngn hng Grameen vi c s khch hng tng t, ang phi tr li sut danh ngha 30 %.Nh mt s la chn, vic ct gim trit chi ph qun l c th mang li bu khng kh d th hn. Vo u thp nin 90, chi ph nhn s v tin lng chim n mt na tng chiphcaGrameen,trongkhichiphlivayduytrmcdi25%tngchiph. Khng th gim tin lng v n gn lin vi thang lng ca chnh ph, cho nn trng tmlphigiatnghiuqu.nnm1996,chiphnhnsvtinlngsutsot ngangbngchiphlivay(Morduch1999).Chiphotocngcao.Mtnghincu cho thy vo nm 1991, 54% ph n c o to v 30% nam gii c o to b d na chng trc khi tip nhnnhngchlmu tin Grameen,v phnln vin trtrctipcaGrameenldnhhtrhotngoto(Khandker,Khailityv Kahn 1995). Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch27Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du HiphiTinbXhi(ASA),mttchctichnhvimlnkhcBangladesh, minh ho cho mt phng php trit hn kim sot chi ph. H hp l ho vic ghi nhn h s v n gin ho hot ng ch c mt loi khon vay c cung ng thi chng hn, so vi nhiu chn la ca Grameen v cho vay tng qut, cho vay pht trin nh,chovaytpth,chovaymav,vgnyhnlchovay/thu.Vth,ASAd dng tuyn dng nhn s i hi t k nng chnh thc hn so vi Grameen, v ch trng vo vic lu gi nhn vin. ASA cng khng s dng cc vn phng chi nhnh bc trung v gn nh chuyn tp trung vo cc nhm ln gm 40 thnh vin vay trong lng thay v nhng nhm nh gm 5 thnh vin nh Grameen.ng li hin ti ca Ngn hng Grameen tip tc tr cp cho v cc d n to ra thu nhp (bao gm dch v cung ng internet v cc nhnh hot ng v li nhun khc) th thuytphctrongtrunghn,nhngcngcnhnghimhoring:smnhcangn hngcnguycbphalong,vnhnghotnglinhuncangnhngdbtn cng bi s cnh tranh theo thi gian. ThnhcngtbococaNgnhngGrameencthiphngqumc,nhng ngay c nu ngn hng khng phi l mt huyn thoi v kinh t m nhiu ngi ru rao, cha chc vic khng t c t ch ti chnh ca ngn hng l mt vn . Min l li ch vn cn vt qu chi ph v cc nh ti tr vn cn cam kt v s nghip, Grameen vn c th duy tr nh mt d n u t x hi khn ngoan. 5.Chi ph v li ch ca tr cp tn dngGn nh ton b cc chng trnh u nht tr rng bn vng ti chnh l mt nguyn tc thencht.ngthi,gnnhtonbccchngtrnhudavotrcpthucloi nyhayloikhc.Ccloitrcpnythngcxemlvintrtmthi,gip chngtrnhvtquachiphkhinghip,chkhngphilcimlintcca chng trnh. l lp lun bo h ngnh cng nghip non tr quen thuc. Quanimchngtrcpbtnguntnhiunilou.Thnht,ccnhtitrcth thayi,vnhngchngtrnhmunduytrhotngtrongtnglaicmthycn phi c lp. Th hai, ngn sch ti tr c hn, hn ch qui m hot ng trong mt qui m nh git. Mt khc, nhng chng trnh t ch c th m rng qui m hot ng p ng nhu cu. Th ba, nhng chng trnh c tr cp c nguy c tr nn phi hiu qunukhngcmtranhgiihnchcngrn.Tht,trongqukh,tintrcp tng ri vo nhng bn tay khc, ch khng phi gip cc h ngho. Quan imcho rng tr cp ch nn c tnh cht nht thi c ngha l vic tnh ton chi ph v li ch tr cp khng phi l mt phn quan trng trong thc hnh ti chnh vi m, v cho n gi vn khng c cc nghin cu cn thn v chi ph-li ch. Nhng trn thc t, tr cp vn l mt hin thc ang tip din: mt s doanh nghip non tr ang ngy cng gi i. Ngoi ra, phn ln ni lo v nhng vn gn lin vi tr cp xem ra c th khc phc c.21 21 Phn ny ch yu da vo nghin cu ca Morduch (1999). Adams, Graham, v von Pischke (1982) trnh by mt quan im khc c lp lun cht ch. Schreiner (1997) trnh by mt khung phn tch xem xt hiu qu chi ph p dng cho BancoSol v Ngn hng Grameen. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch28Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du Sthtlccnhtitrcththayi,nhngchnhphccncvncamktxo ngho sau khi cc c quan quc t chuyn sang mt T Tng Ln khc. Nu tr cp ti chnh vi m xem ra mang li nhiu li ch cho ngi ngho hn cc d n u t x hi khc th sao li phi t chi tr cp? Quimcachngtrnhchcchncnghaquantrng,nhngthngmtchng trnh nh c xy dng mc tiu tt c th t c nhiu kt qu trong vic xo ngho hn so vi mt chng trnh ln nhng hoch nh mc tiu yu km. Ta hy xem mt v dtnghincucaMorduch(2000).Ginhmtkhchhngtiubiutrongmt chng trnh c tr cp c thu nhp bng 50% ca mc ngho, trong khi khch hng tiu biu ca mt chng trnh bn vng (li sut cao) c thu nhp bng 90% mc ngho. lm r s so snh, ta hy gi nh rng tc ng rng i vi thu nhp ca mt ngi vay l nh nhau trong cc chng trnh (sau khi hon tr cc khon vay cng vi tin li).Ti thiu ho i ngho thng c o bng khong cch i ngho bnh phng nh trong nghin cu ca James Foster, Joel Greer v Erick Thorbecker (1984), cho thy rng tng thu nhp ca ngi vay ngho thm 1 USD s c tc ng gp nm ln so vi tng 1 USD thu nhp ca ngi vay t ngho. Nu mt chng trnh bn vng c 63.000 khch hng(tng ng quim khch hng ca BancoSol Bolivia vo u thp nin 90), th mt chng trnh c tr cp ch cn c 12.600 khch hng l c c mt tc ng tng ng. Vic so snh qu n gin, nhng d sc cho thy rng trng s x hi v su tc ng ca chng trnh c th p o c mi quan ngi v qui m khch hng. Vn th ba, mi nguy him ri vo tnh trng phi hiu qu, c minh ho nhiu ln biccngnhngqucdoanhlntinhiuqucgiathunhpthp.Nhngimmu cht hot ng hiu qu l vic duy tr rng buc ngn sch cng, ch khng nht thit llinhun.Mtsnhtitrsdngccchtiuhotngcngkhaivnghim ngtkhichocctchctichnhvimvay,tiukinchovaymidatrnthnh qu hot ng hin ti. Bi hc c th c p dng rng ri hn v dng y mnh tnh hiu qu v ci thin mc tiu trong nhiu chng trnh c hng tr cp hn. 5.1 Cc t s chi ph-li ch n gin Chi ph v li ch nn c so snh nh th no? Ta c th xy dng mt thc o n gin bng cch chia gi tr tr cp cho gi tr li ch mang li cho ngi vay. Ly v d, Khandker (1998) tmct schi ph-lichbng 0,91 trong viccithin tiu dng hgianhnhcckhonvaytNgnhngGrameendnhchophn.iunyc nghalxhiphitn91centschomiUSDlichkhchhngtc.Tnhton tng t, ta c t s chi ph-li ch 1,48 ng vi cc khon vay dnh cho nam gii. T s vi nam gii cao hn, v cho nam gii vay c tc ng nh hn i vi tiu dng h gia nh (Mark Pitt v Khandker 1998), nhng Khandker nhn mnh rng t s chi ph-li ch i vi ngi vay nam gii cng cao hn ngay c trong cc chng trnh xo ngho khc BangladeshnhhotngFood-for-WorkcaChngtrnhLngthcThgii(t schiph-lich=1,71)vchngtrnhtngtcaCARE(tschiph-lich= 2,62).Tuynhin,ccchngtrnhtichnhvimcaUbanTinbNngthn Bangladesh (BRAC) th ngc li. Khandker (1998) bo co t s chi ph-li ch i vi ngi vay ph n v nam gii ln lt l 3,53 v 2,59 ca cc khon vay t BRAC. Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch29Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du Cc tnh ton ny cho ta mt nhn nh r rng u tin khi xem xt nghim ngt v chi ph v li ch. Cc php tnh cho thy rng u t vo ti chnh vi m khng phi l mt phngntonthng,nhngmtschngtrnhvncththnglihnccchng trnh khc. D vy, cng nh tt c cc php tnh nhanh khc, chng da vo mt s gi nh n gin ho. Trc tin, ngi ta ch c th xem xt nhng li ch c th o lng c,chkhngthxemxtcnhngtcngxhinhtraoquyngiitnh. Nhng gii hn khc xoay quanh cch thc nh lng nhng tc ng c th o lng. Vd,tschiph-lich0,91cacckhonvaydnhchophntNgnhng Grameen da vo gi tr c lng 18% gia tng tiu dng h gia nh i vi mt USD chophnvaytngthmtNgnhngGrameen(PittvKhandker1998).Gitrc lngltcngbincamtUSDchovaytngthm,nhngtcngbnhqunth phhphnvychngtanhgitonbchngtrnhchkhngphinhgi vic m rng qui m cho vay.22 Nu s dng li ch bnh qun v nu sinh li bin gim dn theo gi tr vay mn, th t s chi ph-li ch tht ra s nh hn (ngha l b phng ikhitnhtheolichbin).Khi,mi0,91centchitiuhtrNgnhng Grameen s mang li mt tc ng li ch nhiu hn 1 USD. Ngc li, nu c nhng chi ph c nh ln trong cng ngh sn xut, sinh li bin c th cao hn sinh li bnh qun, thshtrdnhchoGrameensmanglitcnglichyuhn.Cnhngbng chng cho thy rng iu ny l ng: nh s tho lun k hn trong phn 6.3, tc ng bnh qun c c lng vi cng s liu s gn bng khng (Morduch 1998b). t sang mt bn s phn bit gia gi tr bin v gi tr bnh qun, cc t s chi ph-li chkhngthhinctnhchtngcaccyut.Hytngtngrngvicvay mn gip khch hng c th mua c mt chic my may. S hu chic my may (v c th thnh lp mt hiu may nh) mang li li ch trong tng lai, v vic s dng tc ng i vi tiu dng h gia nh hin ti khng th hin c ton b gi tr ca vic vay mn v chi ph l mt bin s tr lng/mc (stock), trong khi li ch l mt bin s lulng/dng(flow). Trnnguyntc,chiphscsosnhvigitrhintica dngtcngtnglai,chkhngphivitcnghinti,vlmnhthslm gim t s chi ph-li ch. C l vn kh khn nht v l vn ph hp nht t cuc tranh lun hinti cho n hot ng ti chnh vi m l cc tnh ton chi ph-li ch n gin khng th gip ta hiurcbicnhphnthctthang.Cctschiph-lichcthcci thin(haytrnnthn)thngquagimnhtrcp,vcctschiph-lichn gin khng gip ta hiu c trng thi ti u ca mt hnh ng nh th. V vy, trong khi c th mt USD dng tr cp mt chng trnh ti chnh vi m hin hu gip cho cc h ngho nhiu hn l nhng cch s dng khc, th cng c th l chng trnh tichnhvimcuicngsgipcnhiunginghohnnuchngtrnh khng c tr cp (hay nu c tr cp vi mc thp hn nhiu). Kiu lp lun ny c cc nh quan st hoi nghi v tr cp a ra (v d nh CGAP 1996). Mt ln na, ta hy xem xt li php so snh gi nh trn y gia mt chng trnh bn vng v ti chnh vi 63.000 khch hng v mt chng trnh tr cp ch c 12.600 khch 22 Tht ra, c cu kinh t lng cn thit nh dng da vo gi nh l tc ng bin v tc ng bnh qun l nh nhau (xem phn 6.3 di y), cho d Pitt v Khandker l gii l tc ng bin. Tc ng bnh qun c lng vi c cu kinh t lng hn ch hn ho ra li c kt qu rt khc (Morduch 1998). Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch30Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du hng.Nu x hi nhgi rng 1USDtrong taymt ngivayngho ng gigp 10 ln gi tr ca mt USD i vi mt ngi vay ngho hn (ch khng phi gp 5 ln nhginhtrny),chngtrnhlnhn(khngtrcp)bygisgipcithin phc li x hi nhiu hn so vi chng trnh c tr cp. Vic gii bi ton i hi phi a ra nhng nh gi x hi c th v nh gi nhy ca cc tc ng v nhu cu tn dng i vi t l tr cp. Vic khng nh rng ngi vay mun tip cn tn dng, ch khng phi tn dng tr cp, hm rng v d gi nh ny b qua mt kha cnh khc chng li tr cp. V d trn gi nhrngchngtrnhtrcp phc v nhngkhch hngngho hnnhiu, nhng nu ng l nhu cu tn dng ca nhng ngi vay ngho khng nhy cm trc li sut (li sut cao bao nhiu h cng sn sng vay), th h s ngi vay s tng t nh nhau trong ccchngtrnhtrcpvkhngtrcp.Vicymnhtnhbnvngtichnhs khnglmhnchsutcngcachngtrnhbaonhiu,vlplunnghtr cp s yu i ng k. Tuy nhin, nhng bng chng c tnh giai thoi cho nhn nh ny c xu hng da vo cc phntch cc b (v d nh pdng nguyn tc sinh libinca vn gimdn khi nhngyutkhccginhlkhngthayi)haynhngquanimviukin cu khng hon chnh (v d nh cng nhn nhu cu tn dng mc li sut cao nhng khngluntphpnhngngivaytimnngnnlngtrcmcchiphcao). Mt s ngi lp lun rng chi ph li vay cao l mt phn nh trong ton b chi ph sn xut,vthcchgianhcthchpnhnclisutcao,nhng,cngvinhng yu t nh th, li nhun rng vn c th nhy cm trc li sut. NhngngithcthichnhschBangladeshcxuhngtinrngcodncutn dngtheolisutthcao,vvthhgilisuttngithp(lisutthcdi 25%). Nhng nhng ngi thc hin chng trnh chu M Latin c xu hng tin rng co dn cu tn dng th thp, v h n nh li sut cao nh cn thit (li sut thc gn 60phntrm).Chaiucthngtrongbicnhtnch,nhngchngtavn cha c cc cng trnh thc nghim nghim tc v iu ny. Vn lin quan n mt mi quan ngi bao qut hn v tc ng i vi nhng ngi khng i vay. Ni c th ra, ti sao li gi nh rng ngi ta phi chn la gia cc loi chng trnh? Ti sao khng th cng tn ti cc loi chng trnh khc nhau? Ni khi quthn,stnticamtchngtrnhtrcpnhhngnhthnonkhnng sinh li ca c cc t chc tn dng chnh thc v phi chnh thc hot ng quanh ? y, ccnh l thuyt c nhiu tin b, cho dcc bng chng thc nghim vng chc vn cn thiu. Chng hn nh Karla Hoff v Stiglitz (1998) v Pinaki Bose (1998) minh ho cc trng hp qua s tham gia ca mt chng trnh tr cp lm ti t hn cc iu kin v s sn c cc khon vay t nhng ngi cho vay trong khu vc phi chnh thc. Tc ng tiu cc xy ra v cc chng trnh tr cp lm gim qui m ti u v thuhtht nhng ngivaytt nht, lichonhngngicho vay khngtrcp mttphpkhchhngrirohnvchiphcngchthihnhcaohntrckia. Tng t, Sanjay Jain (1999) xem xt trng hp trong khch hng c th vay mn ng thi t ngun chnh thc v phi chnh thc, nhng y, li th qui m ca khu vc chnh thc ln lt li th thng tin ca nhng ngi cho vay t do. Ba bi vit trnh by Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch31Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du v d v nhng trnghp trong khch hng ca cc chng trnh tr cp khm kh hnbngtnthtcanhngngivay(vngichovay)ngoichngtrnh.Tuy nhin, cc bi vit cng m t kh nng v cc phn v d trong mi ngi u hng li.Theomchnghincuny,MariaflorovRay(1997)vGabrielFuentes(1996) trnh by nhng trng hp qua s gia tng tn dng khu vc chnh thc cui cng c th trn qua khu vc phi chnh thc, v cng lm tng cung ng tn dng . ng tic thay, cho n gi cc nh hoch nh chnh sch vn cha c g tin ti ngoi mt vi nghin cu tnh hung qui m nh cng vi cc v d l thuyt v phn v d ny. 5.2 Chng trnh nghin cu thc nghimNhngvnnutrncthcchnhthcxpvovinhaunhmchothynhng loithngtincnthitathmsliuvonhngtngangctranhlun. im bt u l mt hm phc li x hi W = W(w1, w2 , ,wN), c gi nh l c th chia tch v lp ch s theo ton b dn s i = 1, 2, , N,cc trng s x hi c k hiu i, v wi l s o phc li trn i ca h gia nh i:23 W = =Nii iw1 Tng gi tr vay mn t tt c cc ngun l Li, v sinh li bnh qun ca ngi vay trn mtnvli,trongsinhlivabngtinvangoitin.Ngivaytrlisut bnh qun ri, ph thuc vo ngun vay. Nhng ngi ch vay t ngun tr cp s tr li ri = r. Khi , sinh li rng t vay mn l yi = Li (i ri), v ti gi nh l phc li h gia nh pht sinh t thu nhp c bn Y cng vi thu nhp t vay mn wi = w(Y + yi). Thay i phc li x hi do gim mt t tr cp (ngha l li sut r tng ln mt t) s bng: =((

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\| + =Ni iii i iii iiiidrdL rdrdLdrdrdydwdrdW11 ) ( Phng trnh ny th hin nhng im tranh lun v u tin cho nghin cu thc nghim. Vnthnht,ittrisangphi,lnhucuthchinnhngnhgixhicng khai v s phn phi trng s x hi i v iu ny s xoay quanh nhn thc v mc phc licbncattccchgianh(mtnhntquantrngxcnhthunhpnh hng nh th no n phc li, dwi/dyi. im bt u l chng minh bng t liu v mc thunhpcbnvcccimnhnkhuhccanhngngithamgiavnhng ngikhngthamgia,cngvicnycthtrnnddnghnthngqualinhcc iu tra v nhng ngi tham gia vi cc iu tra h gia nh ngu nhin hin c.S hng dri/dr phn nh cc yu t ngoi tc gn lin vi tc ng ca li sut tr cp i vi li sut trong cc khu vc khc, cng nhmc khch hng ca cc chng trnh 23 hiu nhng vn chnh mt cch d dng nht, ti b qua tnh khng ng nht ca vn v cc dch v phi tn dng nh tit kim. Khi suy ngh v a im ca cc t chc ti chnh vi m tr cp mt cch tng qut hn, chng ta cng mun xem xt n tc ng i vi c cu x hi v kinh t c bn trong cc lng x nng thn: vai tr ca ti chnh vi m trong vic trao quyn cho ph n, khuyn khch thc hnh y t tt hn, thc y gio dc, gim tnh trng d b tn thng, v khuyn khch s on kt cng ng, y nhiu chng trnh ti chnh vi m c th c tc ng ln nht, nhng cng chnh nhng tc ng y li kh o lng nht. Tiu im tp trung vo nhng tc ng i vi i ngho hn l hiu qu thun tu cho d c th c s bin minh hon ton da trn tnh hiu qu i hi phi c can thip (Besley 1994). Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch32Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du tr cp nhn c mt vn may v chi ph vn bnh qun. C cc yu t cung v cu u phnnhquanhycatndngtrngthicnbngtheolisut,dLi/dri. Loinh hng ngoi tc v pha cung m tc ng ln dri/dr s pht huy tc ng y, cng nh nhy ca cu tn dng theo li sut; vic gim tr cp c lm cho tn dng tr nn qu t tn km i vi ngi vay hay khng? Cc vn v pha cung c th c nh gibngnhngnghincuiutrahgianhmcthngtinvscsnviu khon ca tn dng; v d, ta c th o lng nh hng ngoi tc thng qua kt hp cc iutranghincunyvithngtinvthiimvphmvicaccchngtrnhti chnh vi m mi. Ta cng c th s dng chnh cc nghin cu iu tra h gia nh ny o lng nhy ca cu tn dng theo li sut. Vn chn la vn thng c quan tm trong cc loi nghin cu ny, nhng cc bin cng c nh ti sn tha k c chng minh l c tim nng. Cuicng,s hngdi/dri phn nh stng tc ca sinhli bnh qun, cng ngh sn xut, ri ro, v chi ph vn. Liu li sut gia tng c y ngi vay hng ti nhng cng nghlinhunhnnhngrirohnhaykhng?Liunclmgimcutndng trng thi cn bng v v th lm hn ch li th kinh t theo qui m (v lm gim sinh li bnhqun)?Liu nhng h gia nh khm kh sc c nhng d nvisinhlicao hn nhng h ngho? Ta c th s dng cc iu tra h gia nh vi s liu sn xut c thchianhgiipnhngthcmcnythngquaclngcchmlinhun ng thi lu n phn ng ca cc h trc s sn c ca vn v chi ph vn. Cccuctranhlunvtrcptichnhvimthngbvngmcbiskhcbit quan im v mc ca cc thng s ny. Nhng ngi phn i tr cp c xu hng chp nhn s phn phi trng s x hi i tng i ng u, nhy thp ca cu tn dng theo li sut dLi/dri, tc ng tch cc ca li sut i vi sinh li di/dri, sinh li rt thptutcanhnghnghohn,vngoitctiucccaccchngtrnhtn dng tr cp i vi nhng ngi cho vay khc: dri/dr < 0. Ngc li, nhng ngi ng h tr cp c xu hng t trng s x hi ln hn i vi s tiu dng ca ngi ngho, gi nh cu tn dng c nhy cao theo li sut, tc ng thp hoc tc ng tiu cc ca li sut i vi sinh li, sinh li cao va phi (nhng khng cc k cao) t u t ca h ngho, v nh hng ngoi tc nh hoc c li i vi nhng ngi cho vay khc. Btkthiubngchng,nhngngithchinchngtrnhnhiukinhnghimvc hai pha ca cuc tranh lun u gi vng quan im ca mnh. V th, nhng tho lun v vai tr ca ti chnh vi m trong pht trin vn cn b tc ngay t u cuc chi, vi nhng li khng nh c kim tra bi cc lp lun phn bin v khng t c mt l trnh gii php tc thi no. May mn thay, khng k n nhng phn on v mt x hi, tt c nhng vn ny u c th c gii quyt bng nhng nghin cu thc nghim tngingin.Chnhnhngtnhhungringbittrongbicnhchnhschti chnh vi m vi nhng nh ti tr nn nng chi tiu cho cc chng trnh mi v ngun tin khng l sn sng tr cp ngn cn s tin trin hn na trong vic tm kim ci r ca nhng vn c bn nht ny. 6. Tc ng kinh t v x hiTrn nguyn tc, cc hot ng t lm ch c khi nghip nh vo hot ng ti chnh vi m c th nh hng n h gia nh theo nhiu cch (nu qu tht cc h gia nh s Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch33Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du dng khon vay khi nghip). Th nht, s c nh hng thu nhp, nng cao mc tiu dng, v nu cc yu t khc khng i, s gia tng nhu cu c con, vic hc tp ca con ci, v tiu khin. Nhng cng s c nhng nh hng i vi gi tr ca thi gian, dn nnhngnhhngitrnglnnhau.Visgiatngviclmchophn,vicc nhiu con ci hn s tr nn tn km hn, y t l sinh gim xung. Nhu cu cn con ci gipvicnh(btrchocngviclmthmmchammnhn)cthlm gim trnh hc tp, v r rt hn, s tiu khin c th gim nu chi ph c hi tng n mt mc no . Trn cc p lc ny, nhiu chng trnh trc tip ng h vic k hoch hogianhvnhnmnhtmquantrngcavichctp,chonnvicthamgia chng trnh cng c th gip thay i thi cng nh thay i v th m phn tng icachng v v. V vy, trong khimctiudng v thu nhp hn phi gia tng, ta khng th suy din r rng iu gs xy ra chot l sinh,vic hc tp caconci, v hot ng tiu khin. Ngoira,mctcngrngcnphthucvonhngchimrachocchgia nh khi khng c ti chnh vi m. Nhng h khng tham gia cc chng trnh ti chnh vi m c th tip cn vi nhiu c ch ti chnh phi chnh thc v cc dch v khc c cung ng bi cc t chc phi chnh ph v cc chng trnh x hi ca chnh ph. Khng lu trc y, nhng nhn nh tng t v nhng ngi tham gia ti chnh vi m cnulnchoccchngtrnhotoviclmdonhnctitrvchochng trnh Head Start Hoa K; nhng chng trnh ny cui cng c n p khi to ra c nhng thay i c bn trong i sng ca cc h ngho, v cng nhn c s h tr nhittnhca hai ng ngay t u. Chng trnh Head Start, vimc ch gip tr em 3-5 tui c xut thn bt li vt qua kh khn trong nhng nm hc u tin, nhn chung thnh cng. Tuy nhin, i vi tr em M gc Phi, chng trnh ni chung khngctcdng,vitcngbnhqungimnhanhtheothigian(JanetCurriev DuncanThomas1995).Vicotoviclmdonhnctitrcngcnhngthnh cng thc t, c bit khi cc chng trnh t trng tm vo vic ging dy cc k nng ngh nghip c bn. Tuy nhin, cc chng trnh tng cng hn th tn km v him khi bin minh c cho chi ph (Robert Lalonde 1995). Cc bo co hn tp ny khng lm lu m lp lun rng c hai chng trnh u ng nhng vai tr quan trng i vi nhiu i tng hng li, nhng cho thy rng ng tin tr cp tng thm (gi tr bin) cng c th c s dng hu hiu hn bng cc chng trnh thay th khc. Nh lu trn y, cc chng trnh ti chnh vi m phi c xem xt di gc ni trn. Cc chuyn ving thm nhng vng c phc v bi cc chng trnh ti chnh vi mchothynhngiumngitakhngththyctrongsschktonthu nhptvicthamgiachngtrnhtichnhvimangcsdngchonhngngi nh mi, vic hc tp nng cao hn cho tr em, cc ti khon tit kim mi, v cng vic kinh doanh mi. Nhng nhng thay i ny c ng k hn chng so vi nhng g ang xy ra trong cc chng trnh khc? Nhng s o n gin c th nh la chng ta. Ly v d, mt iu tra mi y cho thy rng57phntrmcontraicanhngngivaytintNgnhngGrameenti n trng c ph cp gio dc so vi 30 phn trm con trai ca nhng h gia nh tiu chun nhng khng vay tin. Mc chnh lch tht r rt, nhng liu Grameen thu ht c nhng h gia nh c xu hng hc tp cao hn, hay mc chnh lch ny l kt Chng trnh Ging dy Kinh t Fulbright Ti chnh pht trin Tin ti chnh vi m Jonathan Morduch34Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: H.T. Du qu ca chng trnh? Thu thp thng tin v tt c cc tr em trong nhng ngi lng c Ngn hng Grameen phc v, ngi ta c c mt nhn nh khc v s liu. Xt tng th, t l ph cp gio dc bnh qun ca b trai t mt mu ngu nhin tt c cc h gia nh tiu chun tham gia chng trnh l 46 phn trm (kt hp c nhng ngi vay v nhngngikhngvaytincachngtrnh).Nhngtlphcpl48phntrm trongmt mu ngu nhin ca cc h gia nh so snh trong nhng ngi lng kim sot mkhngctipcnchngtrnh.Ginhrngccnhmkimsotvxll tng thch (c th so snh c vi nhau), th u im v gio dc ca Grameen khng cn na.24 ng tic thay, gn nh khng c nhng gi tr c lng ng tin cy v tc ng rng ca cc chng trnh. Nhng tht bi ri rc trong ti chnh vi m cng thng c b qua, b lu m bi nhng nhn nh y n tng t nhng chng trnh thnh cng. Ti sao li thiu cc nh gi thng k vng chc? Th nht, nhiu nh ti tr v nhng ngi thc hin chng trnh lp lun rng min l cc chng trnh thu hi c chi ph v xem ra phc v c cc h ngho, cc nghin cu nh gi nghim ngt ch lm lng ph thi gian v tin bc m thi thay v dnh iu hnh chnh bn thn cc chng trnh.Nhngnhvdnginvgiodctrnychothy,nhngcinhnthong qua c th khin ta b nh la. Hn na, gn nh khng chng trnh no thu hi c chi ph. Th hai, cc nh gi nghim ngt t ra nhng vn thng k kh khn. Chng c g ngc nhin, nhiu nghin cu nh gi nhnmnh v pha ngn hng. Nh trn, vic nh gi ni chung o lng kt qu hot ng theo t l hon tr n vay ng hn v kh nng to ra doanh thu thu hi chi ph.25 Gn y hn, cc nghin cu nh gi bao gm nhng s o n gin v phmvi tc ngca chng trnh - s ngi vay di mc ngho chnh thc, gii tnh ca ngi vay, gi tr khon vay bnh qun v cctikhontitkim(vd,MicrobankingBulletin1998;RobertPeckChristenv nhng ngi khc 1995). Nhng chng c g tht s n gin. Khi ng tin c tnh cht bt nh (fungible), c th dngvomcchnyhaymcchkhctronghgianhvcthsdnglnln gia cc hot ng khc nhau hay vo cc ti sn khc nhau, ngi ta khng th o lng c tc ng rng i vi ph n v tit kim nu khng xem xt n s phn b li ti khongianamgiivphnvgianhiuhnhthctitkimvut.Lyvd, cho d 95 phn trm ngi vay ca Grameen l ph n, Goetz v Sen Gupta (1995) nhn thyrngchtrong34phntrmcctrnghp,ngivayphntchngtrnh Grameen c quyn kim sot vic s dng khon vay (tuy nhin, Hashemi, Schuler, v Riley1996,nhnthyphngiliquynkimsottrong63phntrmcctrng hp). Vic gii quyt nhng vn ny cng nh s thin lch chn la, i hi phi c nhng nghin cu nh gi vi cc nhm kim sot v x l c xy dng cn thn. 24 Cc so snh c ly t nghin cu ca Morduch (1998) v gii hn trong nhng h gia nh c di na mut. u imcaGrameenvn khngchc chn ngaycsaukhi kimsotcc bins theo tr em, theo h gia nh, v theo lng. Tuy nhin, Pitt v Khandker (1998a) tm thy nhng kt qu ng bin i vi vic hc tp ca nam gii thng qua s dng mt m hnh kinh t lng c cu c lng cc thng s vi cng b s liu. 25 V d, tm c nghin cu ca Richard Patten v Donald Snodgrass (1987), Yaron (1992), Bruce Bolnick (1988) v Mahabub Hoss