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Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years Chapter II

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Page 1: Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years · Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years 11 A decline in world commodity prices had a significant

Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years

Chapter II

Page 2: Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years · Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years 11 A decline in world commodity prices had a significant

World merchandise trade and trade in commercial services, 2005-2015

World merchandise trade growth in value terms, 2005-2015

Merchandise trade of WTO members by region, 2005-2015

Merchandise exports of developing economies, 2005 and 2015

Economies by size of merchandise trade, 2015

Economies by size of trade in commercial services, 2015

10

11

12

13

14

15

Page 3: Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years · Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years 11 A decline in world commodity prices had a significant

15,000

9,000

18,000

12,000

6,000

3,000

20,000

Bil

lio

n U

S d

oll

ar

14,000

8,000

17,000

11,000

5,000

2,000

19,000

13,000

7,000

16,000

10,000

4,000

1,000

2005 2006 2007 2010 20132008 2011 20142009 2012 2015

9,000

12,000

8,000

11,000

,

10,000

Bil

lio

n U

S d

oll

ar

20 2007005 2006

6,000

5,000

3,000

2,000

4,000

1,000

World Trade Statistical Review 2016

10

The value of merchandise trade and trade in commercial services declined in 2015 following modest growth in 2012 to 2014.

The value of merchandise trade and trade in commercial services in 2015 is nearly twice as high as in 2005.

Trade in commercial servicesMerchandise trade

World merchandise trade and trade in commercial services, 2005-2015

World merchandise trade and trade in commercial services, 2005-2015

Page 4: Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years · Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years 11 A decline in world commodity prices had a significant

20

10

0

-10

15

5

-5

-15

-20

2005 2006 2007 2010 20132008 2011 20142009 2012 2015

10

15

208 2009

An

nu

al

pe

rce

nta

ge

ch

an

ge

0

5

-5

0

5

ha

ng

e 5

18%

24%

27%

2005 2006 2007 2010 20132008 2011 20142009 2012 2015

21%

Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years

11

A decline in world commodity prices had a significant impact on the value of global merchandise trade in 2015. World energy prices

dropped by 45% in 2015.

45%

The ratio of merchandise trade to GDP fell sharply in 2009 following the economic crisis but bounced back quickly in 2010-2011. In 2012-2014 it declined gradually, before falling significantly in 2015.

Ratio of world merchandise trade to GDP, 2005-2015

Note: Merchandise trade to GDP ratio is estimated as merchandise trade (average of exports and imports values) divided by GDP, measured in nominal dollar terms at market exchange rates.

World merchandise trade growth in value terms, 2005-2015

Growth of world merchandise trade, 2005-2015

Exports Imports

Page 5: Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years · Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years 11 A decline in world commodity prices had a significant

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

World Trade Statistical Review 2016

12

The share of developing economies in merchandise exports increased from 33% in 2005 to 42% in 2015.

Asia, Europe and North America have accounted for 88% in total merchandise trade of WTO members over the past ten years.

Merchandise trade of WTO members by region, 2005-2015(percentage share, %)

Merchandise trade of WTO members by region, 2005-2015

North America South America Europe Commonwealth of Independent States Africa Middle East Asia

Page 6: Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years · Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years 11 A decline in world commodity prices had a significant

Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years

13

Merchandise trade between developing economies has increased from 41% to 52% of their global tradein the last ten years.

2005

2015

Merchandise exports of developing economies, 2005 and 2015

41%

52%

55%

43%

3%

3%

1%

2%

To developed economies

To developed economies

To Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)

To Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)

To developing economies

To developing economies

Not elsewhere specified

Not elsewhere specified

Page 7: Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years · Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years 11 A decline in world commodity prices had a significant

World Trade Statistical Review 2016

14

The top ten merchandise traders accounted for 52% of the world’s total trade in 2015.

Developing economies had a 42% share in world merchandise trade in 2015.

Merchandise exports of WTO

members totalled US$ 16.2 trillion

in 2015.

52% 42%US$16.2 tn

Economies by size of merchandise trade, 2015

0 - 125

125 - 250

250 - 500

> 500

Billion US Dollars

Note: Merchandise trade is calculated as an average of exports and imports and including significant re-exports or imports for re-export.

Page 8: Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years · Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years 11 A decline in world commodity prices had a significant

Billion US Dollars

0 - 10

10 - 25

25 - 50

> 50

Trends in world trade: Looking back over the past ten years

15

The top ten traders in commercial services accounted for 53% of the world’s total trade in 2015.

Developing economiesaccounted for 36% of total trade in commercialservices in 2015.

Exports of commercial

services by WTO members totalled

US$ 4.68 trillionin 2015.

53% 36%US$ 4.68 tn

Economies by size of trade in commercial services, 2015