TRENDS IN SALES OF MILK &

DAIRY PRODUCTS – A RETAIL

PERSPECTIVEMilk Market Observatory

28 March 2017

2

Belgium

Product February 2017 vs. February 2016

Consumer Price Index

Whole milk -9,15%

Semi-skimmed milk -7,97%

Concentrated and powdered milk +3,72%

Yoghurt -0,15%

Butter +11,13%

% change in volume % change in value % change in price

Dairy products -1,1% -0,9% +0,2%

Source: SPF Economie

3

FrancePeriod ending February 2017

Product category

Volume

(% change)

4 weeks period

(P2‘16/P2 ‘17)

Volume

(% change)

Year on year

(P2 ‘15-P2 ‘16 /

P2 ‘16 –P2 ‘17)

Price

(% change)

4 weeks period

(P2‘16/P2 ‘17)

Price

(% change)

Year on year

(P2 ‘15-P2 ‘16 /

P2 ‘16 –P2 ‘17)

Total liquid milk -4,2% -3,4% -1,1% +1,8%

Of which UHT semi-

skimmed milk-5,7% -6,1% -1,7% +2,0%

Yoghurt & fresh

cheese-0,3% -1,0% -0,3% -0,8%

Butter -0,4% +0,1% -0,3% +1,2%

Cream -1,8% -1,7% -0,2% +0,4%

Cheese +0,6% +1,4% -0,4% -0,6%

Source: Kantar World Panel via FranceAgriMer (Min. de l’Agriculture)

4

FranceSales of organic versus conventional milk & dairy products

Source: Kantar World Panel via FranceAgriMer (Min. de l’Agriculture)

Organic milk & dairy products

Organic dairy products sales have

continued to increase. The increase is

registered on every product.

Organic market shares (% vol. 19/02/2017)

0.5%

1.1%

1.6%

3.5%

3.5%

7.3%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Cheese

Fresh

cheese

Cream

Yogurts

Butter

Liquid milk

2.3%

18.3% 19.1%

22.4%24.4% 23.9%

-3.8%-1.9%

-3.0%-0.5%

-2.1%

1.8%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Liquid milk Yoghurt Fresh

cheese

Butter Cream Cheese

Consumption of organic versus conventional

milk & dairy products% in volume, year to year 52 weeks 19/02/2017

Organic Conventional

5

Germany

Product

category

% change in

volume (year to

date, December

2016)

% change in

value (year to

date, December

2016)

Product category % change in

volume (year to

date, December

2016)

% change in

value (year to

date, December

2016)

Butter -0,3% +3% Half hard cheese +1,1% -2,2%

UHT Milk -2,5% -7,2% Soft cheese -0,6% -1,6%

Fresh Milk -0,5% -2% Fresh cheese +2,2% -0,2%

Quark -0,3% -3,5% Grated cheese +9,4% +2,6%

Natural

yoghurt

+2,1% +0,4% Cheese spread -0,7% -3,5%

Fruit yoghurt -4,7% -4,7% Low-fat cheese -2,6% -4,5%

Desserts -2,3% -3,8% Feta cheese +1,9% +3,3%

Milkshakes +9,1% +9% Total +1,8% -1,3%

Total -1,1% -2,4%

Source: GfK

6

Hungary

Product categoryValue

February 2017 vs February 2016

Value

February 2017-March 2016 vs

February 2016 – March 2015

Fresh and UHT milk +8% -0,5%

Milk products and cream 0,0% -2,1%

Milk desserts and puddings +9% +4,5%

Cheese +9% +4,5%

Butter, margarine +1% -0,7%

Source: Nielsen

7

PortugalPeriod ending February 2017

Product category Volume

(% change,

year-to-date)

Volume

(% change,

year-on-year)

Value

(% change,

year-to-date)

Value

(% change,

year-on-year)

Fresh milk -12,8% -11,3% -12,1% -10,8%

UHT milk -6,8% -7,3% -0,4% -7,6%

Yoghurt -7,5% -3,7% -5,9% -1,1%

Fresh cheese -5,4% 0,0% -3,0% -0,2%

Butter -4,1% -1,7% -0,2% -2,4%

UHT cream +0,2% +1,2% +0,9% +0,1%

Fresh dessert +8,5% +12,1% +12% +15,4%

Cheese +3,1% +4,0% +2,9% +1,9%

Source: Nielsen

8

SpainPeriod ending January 2017

Product category

Volumes

(% change

January 2017

January 2016)

Volumes

(% change

February 2016-

January 2017 vs

February 2015 vs

January 2016)

Value

(% change

January 2017

vs January

2016)

Value

(% change

February 2016-

January 2017

vs February

2015 vs

January 2016)

Price

(% change

January 2017

vs January

2016)

Price

(% change

February 2016-

January 2017

vs February

2015 vs

January 2016)

Standard liquid

milk-4,5% -4,6% -5,9% -6,0% -1,5% -1,5%

Other types of

milk+5,3% +4,0% -0,7% 0,0% -5,8% -3,8%

Milkshakes -0,7% +5,8% +1,5% +5,0% +2,1% -0,8%

Yoghurts and

fermented milk-5,2% -1,0% -6,8% -2,0% -1,6% -1,0%

Fresh desserts -4,1% -0,7% -3,6% -0,8% +0,5% -0,2%

Fresh cheese -6,9% -1,3% -6,1% +0,1% +0,9% +1,4%

Local, traditional

cheese+1,2% +7,0% -0,8% +2,6% -1,9% -4,1%

Processed

cheese-6,8% -2,7% -6,1% -2,1% +0,8% +0,7%

Imported cheese

specialties +0,3% +2,8% -0,8% +0,1% -1,1% -2,6%

9

Spain Period ending January 2017

Product category

Volume

(% change

January 2017 vs

January 2016)

Volumes

(% change

February 2016-

January 2017 vs

February 2015

vs January 2016)

Value

(% change

January 2017 vs

January 2016)

Value

(% change

February 2016-

January 2017 vs

February 2015

vs January 2016)

Price

(% change

January 2017 vs

January 2016)

Price

(% change

February 2016-

January 2017 vs

February 2015

vs January 2016)

Grated cheese-3,3% +2,6% -1,9% +2,8% +1,5% +0,2%

Other types of

cheese-2,0% -0,1% -2,9% -1,4% -0,9% -1,2%

Cream -5,7% +0,2% -7,9% -1,7% -2,3% -1,8%

Butter +8,6% +5,7% +8,5% +4,4% -0,1% -1,2%

Desserts and

yoghurt with

long

conservation

-9,5% -21,7% -1,6% -35,5% +8,8% -17,7%

Non-liquid milk -1,7% +2,6% -6,3% +0,6% -4,7% -2,0%

Total dairy

products -2,8% -1,6% -4,2% -1,4% -1,4% +0,2%

Source: Nielsen and FeNIL

10

Spain

Source: Nielsen and FeNIL

11

SwedenPeriod ending February 2017

Product category

Volume

(% change in the

last 4 weeks)

Volume

(% change

last 52 weeks)

Value

(% change in the

last 4 weeks)

Value

(% change

last 52 weeks)

Milk-2,9% -1,5% -1,0% +0,7%

Hard cheese-2,3% +0,2% +3,5% -1,3%

Cream-1,8% +0,8% +1,1% +0,6%

Yoghurt-0,9% -0,4% -1,2% -0,7%

Cottage cheese/curd-6,0% +0,4% -7,3% -1,9%

Cold desserts+18,2% +12,8% +18,8% +19,3%

Butter-3,5% +6,5% -3,1% +4,2%

Source: Nielsen

12

United Kingdom

UK Dairy Product Retail Price Indices

In February 2017, the RPI increased by 1,09% compared with January and is 3,23% higher than the same

month last year. The fresh milk price index increased 0,99% on the month and was also up 1,54% on the

year. The butter index decreased on the month by 0,89% but increased on the year by 4,94%. Cheese saw

an increase on the month of 0,64% and a fall of 1,45% on the year.

Source:Ahdb

13

United Kingdom

52 weeks ending 01 January 2017

Volume (000

Litres)YOY diff

Spend

(£000s)YOY diff

Average price

(£/Litre)YOY diff

Total milk market 5,481,303 -0.3% 3,136,408 0.8% 0.57 1.1%

Pasteurised* 4,758,946 -0.6% 2,524,978 0.3% 0.53 0.9%

Filtered 283,419 -0.1% 220,204 -0.5% 0.78 -0.3%

UHT 233,714 -3.8% 153,091 -5.6% 0.66 -1.9%

Sterilised 7,156 -6.5% 7,362 -7.2% 1.03 -0.8%

Other milk substitutes 111,985 25.0% 151,712 22.6% 1.35 -1.9%

Milk substitute - Soya 86,084 3.1% 79,062 1.2% 0.92 -1.8%

Source: Kantar Worldpanel

14

United Kingdom

15

United Kingdom: contract league table

https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/resources-library/market-information/milk-prices-contracts/league-table-new-profile/#.WNk7Xm994dV

16

United Kingdom

unit price (p) Feb-17 Jan-17 Month Diff. Feb-16 Annual Diff.

Liquid milk†

Retail (4 pints)* 103 103 n/c 100 +3

Doorstep (1 pint)** 81 81 n/c 81 n/c

ppl Feb-17 Jan-17 Month Diff. Feb-16 Annual Diff.

Cream††

Total Cream 252 251 1 241 +11

Double Cream 226 226 1 213 +13

Single Cream 215 211 4 191 +24

p/kg 29-Jan-17 1-Jan-16 Month Diff 31-Jan-16 Annual Diff.

Cheddar††

Total market 575 598 -23 596 -21

Mature 571 577 -6 598 -27

Mild 530 532 -2 543 -13

† updated monthly ; †† updated quarterly ; *pasteurised (private label)

**milkandmore monthly spot price - semi-skimmed glass bottle

Source: Kantar Worldpanel Online