trends in sales of milk & dairy products– a retail perspective jan trends in sales of...
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TRENDS IN SALES OF MILK &
DAIRY PRODUCTS – A RETAIL
PERSPECTIVEMilk Market Observatory
25 January 2017
2
FrancePeriod ending 25 December 2016
Product category
Volume
(% change)
4 weeks period
(P13 ‘15/P13
‘16)
Volume
(% change)
Year on year
(P13 ‘14-P13 ‘15 /
P13 ‘15 –P13 ‘16)
Price
(% change)
4 week period
(P13 ‘15/P13 ‘16)
Price
(% change)
Year on year
(P13 ‘14-P13 ‘15 /
P13 ‘15 –P13 ‘16)
Total liquid milk -0,5% -2,8% +1,2% +2,6%
Of which UHT semi-
skimmed milk-6,4% -5,5% +0,4% +2,9%
Yoghurt & fresh
cheese+1,7 -0,8% -0,7% -0,7%
Butter +0,9% +0,1% +0,3% +1,9%
Cream -1,6% -1,4% -2,7% +0,8%
Cheese +1,7% +1,7% -0,7% -0,5%
Source: Kantar World Panel via FranceAgriMer (Min. de l’Agriculture)
3
FranceSales of organic versus conventional milk & dairy products
Source: Kantar World Panel via FranceAgriMer (Min. de l’Agriculture)
Organic milk & dairy products
Organic dairy products sales have
continued to increase. The increase is
registered on every product.
Organic market shares (% vol. 25/12/2016)
0,5%
1,1%
1,5%
3,4%
3,4%
7,5%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Cheese
Fresh
cheese
Cream
Yogurts
Butter
Liquid milk
6,4%
18,0%
14,7%
23,2% 22,2% 21,8%
-3,5%-1,5% -2,4%
-0,6%-1,7%
1,6%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Liquid milk Yoghurt Fresh
cheese
Butter Cream Cheese
Consumption of organic versus conventional
milk & dairy products% in volume, year to year 52 weeks 25/12/2016
Organic Conventional
4
Composition of the milk price in Germany according to value-added steps in 2016 (cents per litre)
3
6,4
1,6
1,8
8
0,5
8
1,4
15,3
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
VAT
Retailer cost and margin
Green Dot
Warehousing and logistics
Packaging
Dairy management and margin
Production costs of the dairy
Acquisition costs
Producer price
Source: Statista
5
Germany – consumer prices
January-October 2015 2016 2016:2015
1 litre fresh milk, 3,5% fat 0,64 0,60 -6,3%
1 litre UHT milk, 3,5% fat 0,62 0,57 -8,1%
1 litre organic fresh milk,
3,8% fat 1,13 1,13 0,0%
1 litre organic UHT milk,
3,5% fat 1,20 1,22 +1,7%
Quark, 500g, 0,1% fat 0,75 0,63 -16%
Own-brand butter, 250g 0,97 0,96 - 1%
Gouda, 1kg 5,58 5,11 -8,4%
Whiped Cream 0,45 0,37 -17,8%
http://www.milch-nrw.de/fileadmin/redaktion/pdf/Pressearchiv/2017/NRW-Milchmarkt_Jan_2016_.pdf
6
GermanyPeriod ending October 2016
Product category
Volume
% change
YTD
Value
% change
YTD
Butter +0,1% -1,0%
UHT milk -1,7% -8,4%
Fresh milk -0,2% -3,0%
Quark +0,0 % -4,6%
Natural yoghurt +2,3% +0,7%
Fruit yoghurt -3,9% -3,9%
Desserts -1,5% -3,4%
Dairy drinks +8,6% +8,5%
TOTAL -0,6% -3,5%
7
Hungary
Product categoryValue
December 2016 vs December 2015
Value
January – December 2016 vs 2015
Fresh and UHT milk +13,3% -2,4%
Milk products and cream +0,3% -1,8%
Milk desserts and puddings +13,2% +3,2%
Cheese +14,7% +3,5%
Butter, margarine +5,3% -1,5%
As of 1st of January, the VAT for fresh milk decreased from 18% to 5%;
Source: Nielsen
8
ItalyPeriod: 2016 vs. 2015
Source: Market Track Nielsen
(1) Peso imposto
Product category
Volume
2016 vs. 2015
% change
Volume
Q4 2016 vs
Q4 2015
% change
VALUE
2016 vs. 2015
% change
VALUE
Q4 2016 vs
Q4 2015
% change
Fresh milk -3,5% -0,4% -4,4% -1,7%
UHT milk -3,1% -3,2% -6,8% -6,1%
Yoghurt +0,7% 0,0% -1,0% -1,8%
Fresh cheese(1)+1,0% +0,9% -1,7% -1,6%
Fresh dessert +4,2% +7,2% +3,2% +4,5%
Cheese(1)+2,2% +2,7% +0,03% +1,1%
9
PolandPeriod ending - September 2016
Product category
Volume
(% change
Sept 2016 vs Sept
2015)
Volume
(% change
Jan-Sep 2016 vs Jan-Sep
2015)
Value
(% change
Sept 2016 vs Sept
2015)
Value
(% change Jan-Sept
2016 vs Jan-Sept
2015)
Coffee creamers +2,6% +6,8% +2,7% +0,7%
Condensed milk -8,5% -8,7% -9,4% -9,8%
Cream -2,3% +0,1% -1,3% -1,5%
Cultured buttermilk +4,9% +2,5% +4,4% +1,6%
Hard cheese +9,3% +17,4% +7,7% +13,5%
Kefir -0,4% +0,7% +0,7% +0,2%
Milk +1,6% +5,1% +0,9% +0,7%
Milk desserts -3,2% +3,3% -3,8% +0,3%
Mix yoghurt & juices -32,4% +110,4% -38,8% +99,1%
Mould cheeses +6,9% +5,8% +2,4% +1,6%
Processed cheese -6% -4,9% -5,5% -1,5%
Sweet fresh cheese +1,4% +8,7% +1,3% +4,3%
White Cheese +3,4% +8,7% +3,5% +6,7%
Yellow fats -4,3% -2,5% +6,8% +0,0%
Yoghurts -1,0% +4,5% -1,5% +2,37%
TOTAL +0,04% +3,5% +1,9% +2,11%
Source: Nielsen
10
Poland
3,32%
0,73%
0,31%
5,11%
0,26%
HARD CHEESE
8,68%6,74%
SWEET FROMAGE FRAIS
WHITE CHEESE
YOGHURTS
0,06%YELLOW FATS -2,55%
2,37%4,54%
4,32%8,69%
PROCESSED CHEESE -1,52%-4,28%
MOULD CHEESE 1,61%5,77%
MIX YOGURT & JUICES 99,08%110,38%
MILK DESSERTS
0,69%MILK
KEFIR
6,79%
13,56%17,39%
CULTURED BUTTERMILK 1,58%2,49%
CREAM -1,48%0,13%
CONDENSED MILK -9,78%-8,74%
COFFEE CREAMERS 0,69%
Value (% change Jan-Sept 2016 vs Jan-Sept 2015)
Volumes (% change Jan-Sept 2016 vs Jan-Sept 2015)
Source: Nielsen
11
Poland - sales of dairy products in supermarkets
8,0 %
7,0 %
6,0 %
5,0 %
4,0 %
3,0 %
-1,0 %
0,0 %
2,0 %
9,0 %
1,0 %
JAN 2016
0,43%
APR 2016 SEP 2016MAR 2016 JUN 2016 JUL 2016 AUG 2016MAY 2016
2,88%2,67%
FEB 2016
-0,30%
6,01%
0,37%
1,91%
8,34%
7,19%
1,83%
4,08%
5,13%
3,83%
-0,75%
0,04%0,34%
5,27%
2,55%
volume
value
Source: Nielsen
12
Portugal Period ending 25 December 2016
Source: Nielsen
Product category
Volumes
(% change
year-to-date)
Volumes
(% change
year-on-year)
Value
(% change
year-to-date)
Value
(% change)
year-on-year
Fresh milk -10,7% -10,7% -10,2% -10,2%
UHT milk -6,6% -6,6% -7,6% -7,6%
Yoghurt -1,7% -1,7% +0,2% +0,2%
Fresh cheese +2,0% +2,0% +0,9% +0,9%
Butter -1,0% -1,0% -3,6% -3,6%
UHT Cream +1,0% +1,0% -0,4% -0,4%
Fresh desert +13,5% +13,5% +14,8% +14,8%
Cheese +4,9% +4,9% +1,7% +1,7%
13
SpainPeriod ending November 2016
Product
category
Volumes
(% change
Nov 2016 vs
Nov 2015)
Volumes
(% change
Jan-Nov 2016 vs
Jan-Nov 2015)
Value
(% change
Nov 2016 vs
Nov 2015)
Value
(% change
Jan-Nov 2016 vs
Jan-Nov 2015)
Price
(% change
Nov 2016 vs Nov
2015)
Price
(% change
Jan-Nov 2016 vs
Jan-Nov 2015)
Standard liquid
milk-2,9% -5,3% -4,4% -6,7% -1,5% -1,5%
Other types of
milk+5,9% +3,1% +0,1% -0,1% -5,5% -3,1%
Milkshakes +4,2% +6,3% +4,8% +5,1% +0,6% -1,0%
Yoghurts and
fermented milk-0,5% -0,9% -2,2% -1,7% -1,7% -0,8%
Fresh desserts -0,6% -0,4% -1,1% -0,7% -0,5% -0,3%
Fresh cheese 0,0% -0,9% -0,1% +0,5% -0,1% +1,4%
Local,
traditional
cheese
+8,6% +6,8% +2,8% +2,2% -5,4% -4,3%
Processed
cheese-1,4% -2,4% -1,2% -1,9% +0,2% +0,5%
Imported
cheese
specialties
+2,5% +2,4% +0,6% -0,3% -1,9% -2,7%
14
Spain Period ending November 2016
Product category
Volume
(% change
Nov 2016 vs Nov
2015)
Volume
(% change
Jan-Nov 2016 vs
Jan-Nov 2015)
Value
(% change
Nov 2016 vs
Nov 2015)
Value
(% change
Jan-Nov 2016 vs
Jan-Nov 2015)
Price
(% change
Nov 2016 vs Nov
2015)
Price
(% change
Jan-Nov 2016 vs
Jan-Nov 2015)
Grated cheese+3,5% +3,2% +3,4% +3,2% -0,1% 0,0%
Other types of
cheese-0,6% -0,4% -2,4% -1,4% -1,8% -1,0%
Cream +2,2% +0,8% +0,8% -0,4% -1,4% -1,2%
Butter +13,0% +3,9% +11,0% +2,7% -1,8% -1,2%
Desserts and
yoghurt with
long
conservation
-11,6% -24,7% -27,9% -40,3% -18,5% -20,6%
Non-liquid milk +0,2% +3,0% -0,9% +1,5% -1,1% -1,5%
Total dairy
products -0,3% -2,1% -0,9% -1,5% -0,6% +0,6%
Source: Nielsen and FeNIL
15
Spain
Source: Nielsen and FeNIL
16
SwedenPeriod ending 25 December 2016
Product category
Volume
(% change in the
last 4 weeks)
Volume
(% change
last 52 weeks)
Value
(% change in the
last 4 weeks)
Value
(% change
last 52 weeks)
Milk-1,3% -0,8% -0,2% +1,7%
Hard cheese+0,5% +1,7% +2,8% -1,7%
Cream+1,0% +1,5% +1,7% +0,9%
Yoghurt+0,9% -0,5% +0,7% -0,8%
Cottage cheese/curd+3,6% +3,2% +1,4% +0,1%
Cold desserts+8,5% + 10% +13,4% +17,8%
Butter-2,7% +7,8% -3,2% +6,0%
Source: Nielsen
17
United Kingdom
UK Dairy Product Retail Price Indices
In November 2016, the RPI increased by 0,26% compared with October and is 2,19% higher than the same
month last year. The fresh milk price index increased 0,18% on the month and was also up 1,55% on the
year. The butter index increased on the month by 1,85% but decreased on the year by 5,45%. Cheese saw a
decrease on the month of 1,65% and a fall of 3,77% on the year.
https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-information/dairy-sales-consumption/gb-retail-prices/#.WIDlsVMrIdU
18
United Kingdom
https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/market-information/dairy-sales-consumption/cheese-market/#.WH3uLFMrIdU
19
United Kingdom
20
United Kingdom: contract league table
https://dairy.ahdb.org.uk/resources-library/market-information/milk-prices-contracts/league-table-new-profile/#.WH3umFMrIdU
21
United Kingdom
unit price (p) Jan-17 Dec-16 Month Diff. Jan-16 Annual Diff.
Liquid milk†
Retail (4 pints)* 103 103 n/c 100 +3
Doorstep (1 pint)** 81 81 n/c 81 n/c
ppl Nov-16 Oct-16 Month Diff. Nov-15 Annual Diff.
Cream††
Total Cream 241 241 n/c 240 +1
Double Cream 211 209 +2 212 -1
Single Cream 194 198 -4 191 +3
p/kg Nov-16 Oct-16 Month Diff Nov-15 Annual Diff.
Cheddar††
Total market 574 573 +1 596 -22
Mature 571 570 +1 597 -26
Mild 517 521 -4 542 -25
† updated monthly ; †† updated quarterly ; *pasteurised (private label)
**milkandmore monthly spot price - semi-skimmed glass bottle
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Online